in an alternate earth ii reality. >> all i know, im going to run screaming out of washington. but it's been great to be here. thank you all so much for being here this hour as well. "fast money" is coming up in just a few moments. back up to the nasdaq with melissa lee. what's on tap? >> we'll talk to the ceo of live nation, a stock that is up 52% over the past 12 months. this is the ceo's first interview off of that deal, kel. >> got to watch it. over to you guys. >> thanks, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq's market site, i'm melissa lee. our traders are here. a lot of big earnings movers after-hours. we'll tell you how to trade gamestop and gap coming up. and the ceo of live nation coming up in an exclusive interview. but first tonight, falling stocks. some of the biggest leaners seem to be losing, gas, gopro, el pollo loko seem to be getting killed. what do you do with some of these names right now. let's kick it off with gopro.

>> i still think the stock rallies, but how do you trade it here? they priced the secondary last night, said it was 75ish. let's call it 75. 10 million shares, give or take. obviously did not trade well off that secondary close, based on the lows of the day, 71.75. how do you trade it? well, with i think the prudent thing to do is see if it recaptures that price that it priced the secondary at, 75, and then maybe buy it there. so what's the trade? i think it's a no trade until it trades back above and closes above 75 bucks. . >> you know, what's interesting is we're still expecting the big lockup. because the number of shares they're selling is about 10% or less than 10% of the total number of shares that would be eligible under lockup. so there could be another flood of shares at this point, grasso. >> there could be, and you know, you nailed twitter with that lockup. that took it down from 74 bucks to where it is now or lower. so for me, gopro, they orchestrated this ipo better than any other ipo. they held it real tight, so any type of lockup expy is going to be a problem for the name going

forward. i still think longer term, the stock has trouble anyway. >> they're still trading below right now, gopro, that is, below the price of which they announced the secondary. it hasn't recaptured that price. in terms of price action, what does that tell you about the shares? >> i think that you and guy both said it, as far as what it means is, people are nervous about additional shares coming to market. beyond the 75 offering here, what else is there that's going to be coming out? the ceo and his wife have obviously put money into a charitable trust. wonderful. and we don't know when those shares will be coming to market. if, indeed they come to market, because they don't have to. but there are some concerns there. i like -- i'll take the other side of steve's point, though. i do like the stock into this, their super bowl season right now. >> sure. >> for the sales numbers. but to guy's point, if it can't retake 75 and do it fairly quickly, this is a concern. >> all right. let's talk about facebook here. because it is down about 8%

since october 28th. and of course, it was the earnings report that really spooked investors when they said that costs were going to rise by 55 to 75%, karen. i mean, that's a lot of spending for a company at this stage of the game. >> it is a lot of spending, and we don't know what they're going to use it on, what they could acquire as well. maybe that's whatwear seeing, maybe it isn't. but i kind of think they deserve some credit, and some benefit of the doubt. they've done a great job. >> well, we talk about it, this stage of the game, when you say that implied it's at, it's late in the game. ting the facebook folks would push back and say extraordinarily early in the game. and they have some 15 or 20-year plan, which may may have. i'll say this. i thought the last quarter was outstanding, and i think the stock was rallying and would have continued to rally, but for the comments that you just pointed out and they made back then. i'm surprised it hasn't traded better since then, but i still think that story is in tact as well. >> let's talk loko, el pollo loco. >> i thought you were talking about steve's sweater. can we comment on this?

are you rushing for a fraternity? that is one of the worst -- >> i'm fully invested, bro. >> that's a lot of pattern going on there. >> yours extremely solid. >> ragging on the girls, grass? go ahead. i like loco. this is one that pete was on early. i have not been in there on el pollo loco, but i like what they do, mel. ting growth pattern is there for them, following the patterns of the likes of chipotle. and i think that they could clearly get there and do that. however, obviously, the stock tried to make that bounce today and then they whacked it late in the afternoon. so there's a big seller out there that needs to get out, wants to get out, until they are out, i think the stock waits to clear. sop the guy adame trade here would be to basically wait for that big flush on significant volume. >> i mean, the rapidity of the decline is pretty staggering, since 11/6, earlier this month, it's down about 22%. so it's a staggering decline, actually. >> i mean, this goes back,

you're looking to levels from july in the stock. it's definitely a broken chart at this point. technically, i don't know if it's truly investable. now, you want to wait for a washout? i think you're getting one, but i think it has more time to fall. >> shares on volume trading slightly higher on extraordinary demand for its u.s. bond offering. let's bring in bob peck. this is unbelievable. $8 billion and reports even say $57 billion in demand. >> yeah, it's the largest bond u.s. dollar-based offering out of china ever. it's $8, $10 billion. we'll see what the final numbers end up being. but what i love about it, they're taking their costs lower. the average bips, 75 to 100 bips lower. a wise move in terms of refinancing the debt they have, prethe ipo. and we'll see what they use the cash for. we'll see if they go more internationally abroad in europe as well as in domestic as well u.s. >> that's the big question. it's not at all surprising they

could get an enormous bond deal done. >> right. >> but what do you think? what is the highest marginal use for them in the acquisition world? what should they do? >> the reason they beat e bay in china is they knew the local market. they also knew that going abroad internationally, it wouldn't just be replicating the chinese market abroad. i look for them to continue to take stakes in things like shop runner, first dibs, 11 main here in the u.s., and take stakes in international players to penetrate those markets further. >> how about a stake in lionsgate. we had the vice president of lionsgate yesterday and there's some talk that alibaba could buy the 37% stake that mark has in li lionsgate. >> i wouldn't rule it out. >> would you be more bullish baba if they bought lionsgate? >> yeah. alibaba is not just an ecommerce play. our commission report was over 200 pages long. you can see where their tentacles stream into, from

mobile browsing, telecom, media. they have their hands everywhere. >> yahoo! had a stake in baba. it flips it over and takes a stake or acquires yahoo!? >> it's been speculated in the press, we don't know. i really don't think so, based on the mandate they've given and where they're looking to expand, more of a tax play there. i really don't think so, but i wouldn't be surprised. when you do the math on the taxes, it actually does make some sense. >> it's probably a cheaper way they could pay in cash and stock and they get it right back with yahoo!. so that makes financial engineering sense. but taking off of that, if alibaba seems to have done everything perfectly now, how long before they don't get a pass on reinvesting if it's taking out lionsgate or what we just saw with facebook? if they're reinvesting, how long do they get a pass before they start reinvesting, too, when the stock collapsed based on valuation. >> which is funny, they describe over $10 billion of investments that they made. and also they have on top of that ali pay, which is worth

another $30 billion or so, $30 billion to $50 billion, we've seen. i think the pace of investing will continue along here. i see a huge opportunity. remember, he's aiming for $1 trillion of gmv. currently, their run rate is about $350 billion. they've still a long way to go, just in that market alone. >> alibaba's high was 120. are clients getting concerned that perhaps at least in the short-term, we've seen the top of the stock? >> it's funny, you think about ecommerce, the big 4q or december quarter, usually you see a trailoff after that. and some clients ask about that, whether it be ebay or amazon. baba, you saw the big singles day number come out of over $9 billion, and a lot of clients use that as a catalyst to sale the news. so typically going into the summertimeline, the internet stocks aren't as strong. >> dr. jay, what's your trade here on baba? >> again, we talk all the time about buying a stock when it's cheaper. in other words, if i can buy this thing $10 cheaper. there are plenty of puts out there, so to bob peck's point, if some of the folks that sold

because of singles day or sticks day, november 11th, if people use that as a catalyst to get out and brought the stock back down here to 110 or so, there's certainly some potential that you could sell some puts at lower strikes, 105s and 100s, to basically either get paid, just for being that insurance holder, or make some money and get in that lower price. >> to me, you know, it's a tough one to trade around. maybe it comes in a little. i think if you really are certain that you want to own it, selling the puts is one way, but i would just buy it knowing, if you really like the long-term plan, which we do here, and it's the asset lightness of it, which is so appealing, then, you know, i don't know if i would worry about trades. i'm just going to buy it and own it for a long time. >> gamestop falling in the after-hours session. let's get to kate rogers. >> gamestop is getting whacked. the world's largest retailer of video game products. the stock is moving lower in the after-hours after posting weaker than expected third quarter

sales, hurt by the delayed release of action games "assassin creed: unity." that stock is trading down near 13%. >> third quarter comps were off. i was hanging out waiting for "assassins creed" and it never came in. it's the craziest thing. >> don't lie to america. >> i am lying. but i won't lie about this. the move we'll see, it's going to trade down to 3737.5, which is a correction of the lows we saw in 2012 and the highs we saw late last area. even with this quarter, even with guidance, it's not ridiculously expensive, and you have a 38% short interest. i think you're going to flush them out tomorrow. if it holds 37.5, i think you get long the stock. >> what i'm worried about is the change from real tangible to digital. and that's where they're losing out on. so if you look at electronic arts, their shift mix from going to real games to digital streaming has been tremendous. and their margins actually grow. so i would say gme is actually hurt by that same type of switch.

that's where the market is going. it's almost -- i fear that it's becoming a blockbuster stock. so that's my fear. i don't know if they can make money. >> it's going to go out of business stock. >> even if they can -- >> but six years ago, i would not have touched this thing at 20 bucks for that same reason. i'm shocked at how well it's hung this there. >> best buy shares popping on the back of earnings. one person has been pounding the stock for months. and do you think apple's a good stock to buy at the end of the year? think again. we've got some stats you need to see, coming up. see things in a whole new way. it's in this spirit that ing u.s. is becoming a new kind of company. ing u.s. is now voya. changing the way you think of retirement. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes, ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,...

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time for a trade update. grasso, in the vest, has been pounding the table on best buy for months. take a listen. >> for me, i think you have more upside in the stock, technically. best buy, i think the holiday season has been good for them. i think tvs for the first time are in an upcycle for them. i'm going to be predictable here and say best buy. >> yes. >> the reason why, you have 4k tvs. that product cycle looks good going into christmas for the first time in years. you've never heard me mention this stock, best buy. i look so bad without a vest. it's hard for me to watch that. >> that really doesn't say much. >> thank you. >> grasso, what do you do?

let's be clear. you are not in the stock yourself. but you're recommending the stock, obviously. >> so i speak with large institutional investors. he was very, extremely bullish on the name, for all those reasons they mentioned. they have 50% of the 4k tv market. 30% of every other tv market. their margins are a lot better on 4k versus the traditional televisions, plus, they're going to be selling everything that you're buying this christmas. iphones, gopros, home automation, and the tvs, not only do they sell them, but they install. what other national brand can you showroom in? none. >> right. also, another catalyst that analysts have been talking about today is potentially a capital return plan. either an increase in the dividend, which is about 2% right now, or a share buyback plan, since they ended the quarter with about $3 billion in cash. there's something else beyond the holidays, potentially, is what wall street says. >> i'm wondering if the amazon effect has plateaued. not that they're not a viable competitor, of course they are. but if the inroads, they're

either going to happen at a much slower rate. there's something about, with you guys would be able to answer better. when you're buying a new tv, how much would you love to see it. and since they're competitive now on price. >> you go to the showroom. >> you like going there. their ecommerce is just as competitive as amazon's. you get to see the tangible item. why would you go someplace elsewhere you can talk to the person -- >> and do you get to pick it up right away or have it delivered right away. >> and these guys, best buy, they have the advantage of not dying out once the holiday shopping season's over, because their very next one, in fact, their biggest one beyond that is, of course, the super bowl. so gearing up for all those tvs that grasso just spoke of, that extends sales into january for them, whereas macy's, saks, and the rest don't really have that. >> and given mel's academic history, you have those geek squad guys that come in their little volkswagen. >> what are you talking about? >> that's the best buy guys. they have a whole geek squad

thing. >> i'm going to move on. >> they will install your television if you buy it from best buy. >> that's why the stock's up this high. >> i got it, i got it. >> we've got an earnings alert here on gap reporting after-hours. let's get to kate rogers in the newsroom. >> check out gap, the apparel retailer moving lower in the after-hours. the company beating street earnings estimates by a penny, but its revenues coming in a bit shy, hurt by a 5.5% fall in u.s. sales of its namesake brand and its fiscal 2014 earnings guidance also coming in below street expectations. the stock is currently trading down over 3%. back to you. >> all right. thank you, kate rogers. what do you think? >> well, i own it, so not delighted by that, but, you know, they had already sort of got it down. so we have a new ceo coming in, who you know. maybe we get a kitchen sink quarter when he comes in, although the stock has already been hit pretty hard. if it trades down more tomorrow, below 38, i would buy more. >> let's bring in john kernan, joins us oen the fast line. john, what do you make of the

quarter, especially in relationship to the fact that we are expecting art peck to take over next year. >> thanks for having me on, i'm a longtime fan of the show, it's great to be on. look, there's a lot of leadership changes going on at gap right now. they're bringing in new heads of gap and banana republic. the underperformance of the gap brand in particular, this quarter is troublesome from a sales and margins perspective. comps are down 5 for the gap brand. it really brought the whole performance -- performance of the whole company down. i think it's also important to remember that gap is highly leveraged to denim. there's too much inventory out there, losing share to the active wear cycle, where companies like nike and under armour are benefiting from. >> john, they said full-year margins expect to be about 12.5%. you said the margins were disappointing. it seems as though their inventory, denim aside, seems to be in tact. was only up about half a percent year over year. where would you like to see operating margins be for this company? >> yeah, the gross margin was actually up slightly year over year.

that was a win. it's certainly better than a lot of other apparel retailers we're seeing out there. inventory is in good shape and i think their gross margin will probably flatten out into next year. their q4 implied guidance is a little bit down. but to karen's earlier point, the company is still generating $1.1 billion in free cash flow this year. still a very efficient company in the top line trends out of the gap brand are concerning. i think street numbers for next year are a bit high, but the valuation here is cheap and sentiment's pretty depressed, so i don't think it's raised too much lower from here. >> john, thanks for joining us. appreciate it. john kernan of cowen and company on the fast lain. >> there's one fan of the show. there we go. >> at least one. always nice to hear that. he thinks it's not going to go much lower at this point. >> if i had a play in retail, it would be best buy first, this is a totally different genera, so i still go with macy's. macy's up 17% year-to-date. gap stores still having a tough time. but a really interesting play is abercrombie. for the last couple of years,

almost four years, it's bounced off this level around the $29 mark. this could be really interesting, because those are the companies that have a terrible time performing an abercrombie has been performing horribly, but it looks like this is a good technical entrance. >> how do you think we set up? they are already taking down full-year 2015 guidance before the new ceo steps in next year. >> gps. >> gps. >> gap. >> i'm sort of in karen's camp. i'm surprised -- the quarter clearly surprised me, but i do think the stock, it's not ridiculously expensive. i think there were some good things out of this report. we talked about margins, inventories are in line. if it sort of holds it 38.5 level, which is i think where it's trading now, you get long the stock. >> but i think that's the year that ends -- >> fiscal '15, okay. >> yes. >> top play in retail? >> top play in retail, hmm. apple, sorry. amazon >> that's fair. >> so amazon and followed by alibaba. but i think, overall, u.s.

retailers, i bought coors a couple of weeks ago, i took some profits today, mel, in coach on the big pop to the upside. so i'm not getting out of retail, but by this time next year, i'll be out of most of them. coming up, a massive intraday reversal for mobileye. that's next. plus, vice media and live nation participating up to launch a joint digital venture, producing music for a variety of platforms. the ceo of live nation joins us live for an exclusive interview, straight ahead. being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far, but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know?

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alibaba's $8 billion bond offering has priced at levels even higher than some expected here. it's in line with some of the world's biggest companies, melissa, and they also had $55 billion in orders for this. the stock right now, up just

slightly in after-hours. back to you guys. >> thank you very much, kate rogers. a massive reversal in shares of mobileye today kicking off our top trades. the company getting strong full-year guidance. ending the day lower by 5.5%. grasso? >> the original equipment was up 60% year over year. the aftermarket was up 146%. to me it just looks like a case of profit taking. i mean, this stock is still up from its ipo price. there's still the competitor to beat. they're the name when it comes to autonomous driven vehicles. you could retrofit a car, get a car with it in it. i'm still, actually, still in the name. i still think it goes higher from here. >> guy? >> got to hold these levels. right here is where it bottomed out in early october. it's got to bounce basically right here, 44 bucks. to your point, the price action today and launch volume scares me, but if it holds here, i think it's not a bad trade. >> next up, yum brands. a solid day gains for the stock, this after it upgraded the stock from a buy to a neutral. also announcing after the bell

it has authorized up to $1 billion in additional share buybacks through 2016. doc? >> yeah, and if we get the recovery stabilization first, but then recovery, and perhaps memories stopping a timeline looking back at all those problems with the food that they had in china, that was what hurt yum brands tremendously and people forget about that, and they can move forward. yum's positioned well to keep going higher. >> the problem is that the people are the people in china and can they move past it? and i don't know -- i don't know if you've seen a lot of evidence so far in china same-store sales to tell us that that's completely behind them. >> it may not be completely behind them, but i think it will be at some point. if you're willing to hang on, i think this will be a blip in the overall china growth story for them. >> mcdonald's. remember, we did that -- what do we call that thing? behind the trade. i love that. you can find it on the way, by the way. but we did it about mcdonald's, pointed out the stop levels, has traded well since. mcdonald's has to get better,

because by definition, they have to get better. they will figure this out. last couple of quarters have been horrible. i think they'll straighten it out and the stock goes higher from here. >> so you like yum, but would you rather yum or loco? >> i would take loco, for the growth. but, i mean, obviously, mcdonald's and yum have tripled since the '08 low. that's fabulous performance. i think they've got good operators in both cases. but loco, with the limited number of locations, no pun intended, not loco -- >> funny. anyway, go ahead. >> i like this one going forward, loco. so, yeah, with the big turnover today, 2 million shares, maybe that's the guy adame flush. coming up next, a exclusive interview with the ceo of live nation as the company gears up to launch a digital music platform. and later, november winding down, december right around the corner. a deeper dive into how tech titan apple tends to dive into

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still ahead on "fast money," the concert promoter behind such acts as beyonce and one direction teaming up with vice media in a brand-new joint venture. the ceo of live nation joins us in an exclusive interview. plus, think you should bet big in a year-end rally in apple. the data that might have you thinking twice. that's ahead. and has the solar bubble burst within the sector? a very special options action, coming up. but first, concert promoter live nation moving into a new platform. launching a new video service for mobile phones and tv. joining us now, live nation ceo, michael rapino. tell us about this joint venture and what your targets ar for digital distribution as well as live apps. >> with 23,000 shows a year, we've been spending the last few years figuring out how we can monetize those shows. we launched a great venture in year with yahoo! where every day we're streaming a live show. we've done 125 to date, and had great, great success with it. great audience, and that was kind of the proof of concept, that we can take our 23,000

shows and do more with it. so we found and looked for the great partner and vice being a creative genius, knows how to take that voice, and we're excited in 2015 to launch a new channel. it will have some streaming, some tent poles, and original programming all with the voice of life, and distribute that channel to mobile carriers to appletvs to youtube, wherever we can. >> we've had shane smith on, he's an absolute genius. in terms of your business, are you concerned about cannibalization. if all these millennials are able to stream and watch it on the convenience of their phone, are you afraid that maybe they actually won't go to the concert? or does it matter? >> we have a ton of unused inventory. you know, for every taylor swift and u2 you hear about, 80% of our shows don't sell out. we've got lots of seats available. number one way that a consumer will buy a show, he usually shops for two weeks. so other than the committed, he

debates for two weeks and the number one way to get him into the shopping cart is show him a live video of the band. the number one motivator. so the more video and the more we can throw at them, the more tickets they're going to buy. >> so michael, you have had excellent growth in your sponsors, in your advertising. it's really been great, and i'm wondering do you think it is at a point of plateauing or do you see it actually accelerating off of some of your fixed costs? >> we think it's going to accelerate. you know, we've been spending the last few years building the right infrastructure. we've got a great add network that we've been building. if you look at our base business, 60 million fans came to our shows last year. that's more the nba, nhl, and nfl combined. and now we have the third or fourth largest internet site as far as traffic. so that proposition against 800 sponsors that we have is really starting to kind of drive a competitive advantage. as we have more add units like yahoo! video units and vice giving us more video units, we think we're going to continue our double-digit growth in the advertising digital business for

a few years to come. >> and in terms of your revenues, most of it, a lot of it is from sponsorship, as karen had mentioned. interestingly, too, though, you say a lot of it is from beer. beer is a huge -- i mean, can you tell us a little bit about that. because i think that's kind of surprising, because you don't think about it when you think of live nation. >> we make money three ways. we're going to spend over $3 billion this year just for the concert. most of that is going to the artist. but it feeds our three high-margin businesses. on site, whether it's parking, food, beverage, all the ways we make money on site. sponsorship and ticketing. and the reality is, in our business, unlike disneyland, when you get to a concert, you're not looking for gourmet food, but you're certainly looking for a cold beer. so 80% of our concession business, which is $100 million business, is actually what we call wet and it's actually mostly alcohol. >> okay. >> so the more, the merrier. >> and in terms of the digital platform with vice, when do we see that roll out and hit results? >> we're aiming for 2015 q1.

so shane and we have a full team in place. we've seen a lot of the early series kind of pilots that we have created. we wanted to announce it now, because we've got a lot of great distribution options around the world, and we're looking forward to the end of q1 to launch. >> today, i know, is liberty day. they are, obviously, your largest shareholder by a lot, bumping up against the ceiling. what's the future, what do they want out of live nation? do they happen to just be a holder? >> yeah, you know, they're capped with our agreement at a certain price. i think that john malone and greg have, i think, three years ago they weren't sure, and i think today, as you can see, buying stock at $25, $26 are now firm believers that this has been a great investment for them. john malone and greg and i talk about it. they love -- what they love about live nation, it's a global business. in 41 countries and expanding. no regulatories, no factories to build. jay-z is a global product. we've got a great global runway

ahead of us, and the nice part is we can keep hitting it right down the fairway. we don't have to do anything out of the box to keep growing this business for years ago to come. >> michael, thanks for stopping by, appreciate it. michael rapino, the ceo of live nation. karen, you've been in this for quite some time. >> michael is a rock star in this business. he has really been made this transformational change, it's not the cheapest stock, but you can definitely see growth there and we are hanging on to all of it. >> got some breaking news here. sotheby's is the name, kate rogers has the details. >> that's right, melissa. sotheby's ceo william groupec stepping down by mutual agreement. he will remain in place enemy a successor is named. cnbc reached out to third point for comment as activist investor dan loeb has been very outspoken and critical of sotheby's. for the past year, he said over the summer there was a crisis of leadership at the auctionhouse. the stock is down about 1.5% on the news. back to you guys. >> thanks, kate rogers. guy, what do you think? >> i think -- well, i don't want

to give away later in the show, but i think this could be good news. you'll start to hear loeb chatter, i think. i think you'll get more of the activists talking sotheby's. the stock has been awful. >> the stock is up 1.5%, not down. it is up 1.5%, and that's what you would think. if dan loeb is agitating for change, this would indicate that perhaps he does have the power now enact change with the ceo ousted >> yes, i think so. and i think the business needs to involve. there's some real competitors, paddle 8 online, so they need to involve. and i think they may -- i know loeb seems to have thought of him as a barrier to that. >> i agree, i would be a buyer of this one on this news. it's not a slam on the ceo, but an endorsement of dan loeb. and when you have an activist that finally starts getting their way, those stocks move. time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day, pop for dillards, up 9%. >> marcatto put out a plan to put it into a reit structural, although i think that's going to be really hard to do.

the dillard family seems to be firmly in control. not expensive here, but i wouldn't buy it on the reit only hope. >> pop for intel, up 5%. grasso? >> this is the stock that owns 80% of the pc market. they used to be a bad thing, actually a good thing. they own 98% of the server market. the stock is up 38% year-to-date. probably room to move higher here, if they can make it a more efficient for their mobile units and filter them into the pc unit. it could grow higher from here. >> gmc, our big drop today. >> steve will question some of the organic growth here, mel. people use that as an schoouf to get out of the stock and get out, they did. again, one of those 10 million share turnovers. normal, i think, is little over 1 million a day. so that's a flush, but i think it might have more to go, because the aggressive run it's had to the upside. >> pop for lennar, up 3%. guy? >> existing home seas the catalyst. this stock had trouble with 45 early in 2013. had the same trouble earlier this year. closed above it today. the trade is, you stay long this

stock with a $45 stop. >> let's switch gears. touch unusual activity. and doctor, you're watching lyolio lions gate. >> i was out there in the audience listening and watching you, as i usually do. and as far as lions gate, jack ma, what the involvement could be, there's somebody that wants to speculate the stock goes significantly higher. it's a $37 stock now. just pennies away from its 52-week high. they're stepping in and buying december 37 calls. so they're basically defining it from there up, and they've bought 8,000 of them. i believe only about 2,300 open interest. so this is opening new positions, and they took it up from 55 cents to about 85 cents for those calls. if the stock makes a pop over 38 and so forth, these guys are going to be really happy and so will i. i bought it. still ahead, only 27 trading days left in 2014. is apple a good bet for the end of the year? we'll break that down, that's next. they're still after me.

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stocks historically perform best with a strong dollar and which companies are most impacted by rigds or falling gas prices? joining us now is kensho's cofounder and ceo, david nadler. thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> how did this get started? >> we had the realization that most of the sophisticated computer systems that were being built were being built around the model of running hedge funds. and we realized in the era of 2014, that even the big companies, they're thinking about a different business model. it's not a service-based business model, in the way hedge funds normally are, it's a platform-based business model to build a technology. and they provide utility to people by giving them information. and there are a lot of great precedents in terms of building those types of business models. so we thought we would build a very, very high-end statistical computing system. >> and we've given you some models how you can use kensho to explore the relationships

between different asset classes and indices. it's almost endless what you can do with this. how important is the technology coming along to make this actually affordable and access to believe a bigger range of people, as opposed to just the biggest institutions on the street? because we've come a long way in terms of big data analytics. >> the technology is 100% of it. what enabled this company, we got the most brilliant engineers in the world from google, apple, facebook, the companies that i mentioned to agree to work on financial technology. so most of the historical limitation in this field has been that most of the people who historically work in this industry do not come from the consumer internet side of things. consumer internet, we all know, you guys coffer it every day, has left a generation ahead of enterprise technology. has left a generation ahead of the financial products and tools that people in the financial services industry use. bringing people like that of that quality to work on this problem space, that was the absolute necessary condition to making this work. >> who's going to be the typical user of this? would it be a mom and pop investor at home or would it be a sophisticated professional? >> so, i think as you build out these technologies, it becomes ubiquitous, right? that's what -- when you ask, who

is going to be the initial user of facebook, well, it started out with a lot of, what might be called elite users. you had people being the exclusive users. and now everybody's mom and pop is on facebook. we think of ourselves the same way, you know, our primary business is around enabling very large global banks and financial institutions to make better, faster decisions with statistics. but the trend in all technology is towards increasing ubiquity. and in three to five years fro now, i can see a reality where everybody has access to this technology. >> it is a powerful tool, but it's important that the user know what they're doing with this tool. there are many ways to search, and some results yield very statistically important you know search results and some don't. >> it's absolutely only as smart as the person asking it the question, which is why, you know, people talk about, does this remove alpha from markets and so on. the answer is absolutely not. think about microsoft xcexcel,

it's a spreadsheet. you can put the stupidest model in and press sum and it will sum it for you. >> so don't worry about it, keith. >> you're good. a terrible platform for me. >> but that's the beauty of a platform. that's the power of a platform. it's as capable as the person using it, and that's what we're building. the very, very high-end, sophisticated users will still be able to differentiate themselves. but everybody is going to have access to information, a higher level than they historically have. the base line is going to definitely rise very quickly. >> and what's the deal with the name, kensho. because, guy, when we were talking about kensho -- >> i was shocked they were able to write those great songs like ticktock and then do -- >> with a dollar sign instead of the "s". >> we're living in a uh in era, where you can build a very, very, very big software company with a zen buddhist name. it's a japanese term, so it translates very loosely. but it's the first moment of awareness that you have that there are recurring or repeating patterns in nature. you know sw, waves are not

discreet, but they repeat. and we thought that was a beautiful metaphor for financial markets. when you're in the middle of it and see all the motion and it seems like everything is happening for the first time, but when you take a step back from the motion and view the historical context, you see that things do repeat themselves. >> daniel nadler, the founder and ceo of kensho, not ke$ha, guy. very different. we used kensho today to take a look at whether apple would be a good trade to year end. this is a commonly asked question. we looked at the performance of apple versus the s&p 500 during the last three months of the year. over the past ten years, apple traded positively 80% of the time while the s&p traded positively 70% of the time. the median return during that time period was nearly 15% for apple and about 6.5% for the s&p 500. so apple was the outperformer. but you ask me, melissa, the time period is already halfway

over, so what do you do if you don't already own apple? well, what we found is now might not be the time to buy it. if you take a look at apple's performance until the last week in november, until the end of the year, fractionally where we are right now, apple has performed positively 70% of the time over the last ten years while the s&p has traded positively 100% of the time. the median return during that time period was about 2.8% for apple and 2.2% for the s&p 500. so what is the bottom line here? if you're not in it already, you probably missed the gains, because it looks like most of the gains happened between the beginning of the quarter to about now. >> and, as we said with you on halftime, it's a question of the question. so, in other words, do i -- because, again, it's not a garbage system. this is a brilliant system, but nonetheless, you have to ask, okay, over the next seven days, how does apple perform versus the s&p? and it's also because people can refine those questions down like that, not everybody is going to get the same answer.

somebody else, a bear, looking at that same issue, might be asked for a 14-day or at the 200-day moving average, or at the 50-day or whatever. so, again, i think this is going to be a great tool going forward, mel, and i think that it's all about the questions. because now you have -- >> as a trader, too, with all that information you're processing right there, and you have to think, we've been talking about it, this killer upgrade cycle for iphones. just think about in hindsight, looking backwards, how many iphones they're going to sell in the month of december, where everybody has been waiting for this new iphone, that's where you'll look back and see this was a buying opportunity, not a selling opportunity, or not a time to say you missed it. >> it's historical performance, for the past ten years, it's the median move. so you have to use your own judgment when using this data point. are. >> but the tool itself is amazing. and it's one of those things you can get aaddicted too. if you love this game, you can get addicted to this thing very quickly. you can ask it just about anything and it's going to spit back, maybe not what you want to hear a lot of times, but it's

going to give you the data. really an amazing vehicle. coming up, sun power popping 3% in today's trade. we'll tell you why one trader is making a bullish bet right after this break. more "fast money," straight ahead. hey matt, what's up?

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earnings alert here. let's get to kate rogers. >> hey, melissa. that's right, splunk moving higher in the after-hours. the company posting better than expected third quarter results and giving fourth quarter guidance slightly above street views. the data analytics software maker reporting a 48% jump in quarterly revenue, as it added more customers, the stock currently trading up over 5%. back to you. >> all right. thanks, kate rogers. dr. jay, what's your trade on splunk? >> well, it would be kensho, because that's what kensho is doing. it's data mining. splunk is a data miner. this is a phenomenal company that's had a big up-and-down this year. this might be the step up that carries it through into the end o. year. >> so you like splunk here? >> i do like splunk. >> sun powers surged more than 3% today and one trader is making a big bet the stock will continue to shine through year end. mike khouw is here with the action. mike? >> two times the average daily call volume and all of that was really the result of some activity in january, specifically we saw one person come in and buy 3750.

january, 2932 call spreads. the nice thing when somebody buys a call spread, we really get a good view into what they're thinking. one thing, they're looking out to january, about 58 days way. the other is that because they spent about $1.20 on this, they'll need the stock to be above $30 by january expiration. but because they sold the 32 strike call, we get a sense that they think those gains are probably not going to be much more, about 10%, in two months' time. >> sun power, guy, what do you think? >> you should listen to what mike's saying with because he nailed gamestop. he said it will move probably to the downside. the stock had an 11% move to the downside. >> props to mike khouw. >> absolutely props. ting these guys report january 22nd. listen, mike's been spot on. it looks like it's a bullish play. maybe not a bad time to get long sun power. >> check out our live show tomorrow afternoon at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. let's get some tweets here. you tweeted, we traded. first up, the one is for karen. dave asks, with darden cfo leaving in march, does this change your opinion of the

company? >> no, it didn't. it's not shocking that there would be this change. but i do think, when they have a new ceo come in, with we could see a kitchen sink quarter that we talk about a lot. but a new -- they are getting a new ceo, who would bring in a new cfo, would be my guess. we could see a kitchen sink quarter. all of that having been said, though, i like it, i'm long, i'm bullish on the olive garden turnaround. >> next one for guy. which is the best beta chase into new year. twitter, solar city, or fire eye. >> it's like a would you rather game -- >> except with a three-way. >> three-way would you rather. a fascinating game. fire eye. and the reason why is because i think they're in the right space. i think it's one of those rising tides lift all boats. everybody hates this. the ceo, obviously, been under pressure. we had him on. i think they flushed it the day we had them on and the day they reported, i think the beta trade is in fire eye. >> grasso, you play this game for us. >> oh, i'm going back to this? >> no. oh, this game? >> for me, you've got to play solar. if you're looking for a beta

chase, you've got to play solar. because i would think that you're looking at a&m strategies versus anything else. obviously, i own twitter, so i would have a vested interest in that -- oops, sorry. i would have an interest in saying that that runs into year end, but i would think that you get more bang for your buck if you play solar. >> that vest is not growing on me, by the way. >> oh, my god, you know, i did wear it for you. >> we've got your first -- >> yeah, sure. >> stay tuned. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare?

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. poindexter? >> i'm going to stick with abercrombie. i stated it earlier. please tweet in if you want us to have "fast money" vests going forward. >> please don't tweet in that you want that. i bought lgf, lionsgate and i'm holding it into these next couple of weeks. >> karen? >> yes, gap stores, it was disappointing, the gap brand of their three, also very disappointing. however, i do think below 38, the stock is cheap. it's cheap to itself and it's cheap historically. i would own it there. >> guy?

>> news in sotheby's reeks of dan loeb. i'm hearing chatter about that. i think the stock goes significantly higher than it's currently trading, which is about 41.5 right now. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you very much for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. i mean, i have these two kids who -- jim still does when i see him, he actually puts his arm around me and hugs me every time. and then, she is the greatest. i attribute it to my wife, and that's the way it should be. she was the perfect thing and that's why the kids are as good as they are. they were exposed to her and, my god, you couldn't ask for anything better.