milkshakes and red wine. what would happen if you combine the two? >> is this a new product, by the way? i saw the teaser to this. i couldn't believe it. >> red wine milkshake. >> oh, my gosh. >> red robin gourmet burgers. we've got the ceo on. it is a stock up about 30% over the past month. >> is it just cherry? all right, over to you guys. >> i'll let you know. thanks, kelly. it's "fast money" friday. live from new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tim, steve, brian, and guy. tonight's top story, china's big move. people's bank of china cutting interest rates today, sending stocks to intraday highs after bank of japan's surprise stimulus just a few weeks ago. so add into that a little mario draghi comments, in terms of easing central banks around the world. what do we have here? >> you definitely have fx wars going on. i think china is doing this for

reasons that are domestic. i think they're going right after them. but this is very significant if you think that china is just the beginning of a policy easing cycle. i do. i think you're going to get three before now and kind of middle 2015. i think there's a lot that's been going on in terms of policy. they're describing this as reform. but what do you do? how do you trade this? emerging markets significantly underperformed. you need china, but you also need more central bank easing. i also think copper, which is the last time we really got a copper rally, back in the summer, is also when china was cutting rates. i think this is a big day and it's a big day for underperformers. i think china is not imploding on this. >> i would have thought that the u.s. equities market would have rallied more off of this. >> no, wouldn't think so. china growth has been in question. so this is the lowest china growth that we've seen in 20 years, or thereabouts. this is something for us to really say is this the end of growth, which affects what tim

just said, the oil trade, the commodity trade, across the board. so you see these spikes. you see everything spike higher. does it hold here? i mean, it's been a -- we've talked about it on the desk. it's been a demand question. not so much a supply issue. so right now, the world is really in a precarious spot. >> if one were to believe that china is effectively going to paut backstop into its economy, there's a floor there. the biggest headwind facing the u.s. equities market was possible china slowdown and slowdown in europe. and we have the two central banks saying we are there to support the economies. i would have thought u.s. stocks would have been happier about it. >> the china slowdown hasn't come to fruition. i think steve makes a good point. but it doesn't seem to matter for our markets. i still think the greatest risk is in japan. i just don't know how it all ends well if they're going to continue to bash their own currencies. tim mentioned toyota motor as a buy idea. for the first time in a long time, here's a stock finally

starting to get out of its own way. that might be interesting. i still think what you come back to is interest rates are going lower. i think after that huge spike we saw in the middle of october, they've consolidated, recaptured 120 in the tlt. i think that's your trade. >> well, listen. i think that you really need to take a hard look at what happened in china today and what they've done over the last couple months. in september, they put $81 billion into their banks. in october, they put $30 billion into their banks. today, they cut interest rates. why in the world would a country that's growing at 7% need to support their banks that much? clearly there's something going on. we know china's slowing. the question is how dramatically are they slowing? to me, these moves say it's slowing a lot more dramatically than anybody else is admitting or even the markets are recognizing at this point. if you want to say hey, it's slowing down, i think the market was completely wrong today to buy commodities. and you saw it in the oil market. china's not going to be a big oil buyer again.

they're not going to be a big copper buyer again. >> i get what you're saying, that this isn't a bullish sign, but there's nothing new about what china did today that they haven't been doing for the last six months. there's nothing new about the economy that we got. in fact, i would agree with you. i think they're actually looking to make funding better for the state-run enterprises and i think there's a lot of concerns about the credit issues there. but ultimately, the dollar was up 85 today. commodities rallied across the board. how do you explain that? >> we know china's going to a consumption-led economy. they're de-stocking their commodity cycle. so you're better off buying baba than you are cap. that's my point. because that's your consumer sharing in china. whether you believe it's a bad sign or the slowing or it's a soft landing, i happen to believe it's a hard landing primarily because of the rapidness of their actions. >> so how do you invest in a hard landing in china? >> well, i think you stay short oil. you buy treasure bonds, tlt.

that's what i did today. i think those are the two biggest ones out there. >> oil posting its first weekly gain since september, where production cuts may be announced to prop up prices. let's go around the horn here. tim, what do you think? >> i think they're going to probably cut by half a million barrels, and i think this is -- opec has figured out that higher prices or stable prices, which typically you think is what they want, are not working. they bring a lot of production out. i think they're willing to tolerate lower prices and more production and see what happens. i think if they cut by 500,000 barrels, the view is that around $75 for a wti, you're going to see about a half million barrels gained next year in shale. if oil prices are down to 60, you're going to see nothing. so they are ready to wait this thing out. i don't think you're going to see a huge shock. having said that, we priced in so much negative news here and i don't agree with brian that china is going to stop the demand cycle. it may not be 9% or 10% what it was ten years ago, but i do think you're still seeing incremental demand. it's slower. i think this is a case where opec will take something out of

the market and the market will rally a bit. >> i think they're going to change the language up. we're going to start to play fair. which means instead of oversupplies, which they normally do. so i think they're going to use that terminology. i don't think they're going to cut. so i think this run-up that we're seeing of energy stocks on this china news i think is probably going to be sold next friday. now, does it ramp up in energy names going into year end? i do believe that is possible as well. i think you're going to see knee-jerk reaction. >> i came into the day short xle. but i think that's what you do going into opec. probably half a million barrels. i think everybody's willing to have low prices. i think a lot of that opec cut has probably priced into this minor little bump that we've had. >> i think there's one name you can't. we mentioned it last week.

slumberjay troughed with the rest of the space. it's banged up against 98 a few times in november. the only thing that took it lower was the space in crude oil. >> if you want to play beta going into year end, a game with a lot of debt. if you're looking for that beta chase going into year end. >> while the microsoft run may be over, we'll tell you which other tech stocks could be set to break out. and chances are you've seen one of these commercials. >> red robin's burger and bottomless fries is just $6.99. so you can treat a burger to a friend without making him feel emasculated. >> now red robin is adding, yes, they're adding a red wine milkshake to its menu. the ceo joins us exclusively

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shares of red robin have been on a tear in the last month, up 31%. now the burger chain is out with new menu items like the big sky burger and the divaliscios. now we bring in steve carley. great to have you with us. let's talk about these new menu items in terms of bringing in traffic. what do you notice when you roll them out, what kind of traffic do you get and what check size do you get? >> melissa, we have learned over time after 15 straight quarters of meeting wall street expectations, we hit an air pocket in q2. in q3, we went back, performed really well, and kicks off with red robin loyalty, with almost four million unique users. it lets us message to them based on their visit frequency and their purchase behavior and that makes a big difference. as you mentioned the big sky

burger, that's one of red robin's finest. it's eight ounces of premium grind, black angus beef. and in the case of the big sky, it's blackened with bacon, a sriracha drizzled onion ring, arugula and garlic aoli, it's been a big hit. it's really made a big impression on us. our total revenues were up 16%. >> sure. your check size is bigger by about 3% or so, a little bit more than that. but what analysts were concerned about in that third quarter was the traffic declines because you launched the brand revitalization effort. some are concerned out there that perhaps you're not gaining enough traction because you're seeing in that decline in traffic. >> well, i think that's a little bit of a hangover from q2. we're very pleased with what we're seeing on our brand transformation restaurants. those are the restaurants we're remodelling to specifically give guests several different kinds

of experiences in the restaurant, from a great bar experience, from an adult standpoint or an enhanced experience with your kids. and we did see traffic come back to a positive level at the end of q3. >> so what are you seeing? what wall street knows in terms of the numbers you've reported so far, is compared to your competitors such as texas roadhouse, outback, applebee's, your traffic was down in the quarter, their traffic was up. so in terms of what you're seeing to date, you said it was accelerating. what are you seeing to now? >> typically we don't give in-quarter guidance on traffic. all i can say is over the last two years, we have consistently beat the black box, which measures our traffic against our competitors, up until the second quarter. we had a little hangover there. and at the end of the third quarter, as we saw our traffic did come back. and it really is a market share game. and that positive traffic at the end of q3 has that impact.

>> what do you think as far as people are willing to spend? >> it's hard to quantity. what we want to see is a big spike of people getting their jobs become, and you really want to see discretionary income per household begin to grow again. and we think that will really help. >> tell us about the red wine milkshake, because when i first read about it, to be honest, i thought it sounded disgusting. i still haven't tried it yet. these are two things you wouldn't necessarily think to combine, ever. >> well you know, melissa, our guests have kind of an existential conflict. when they sit and look at a beautiful red robin gourmet burger, they're torn. their question is, do i get a beer or a glass of wine or do i get a shake? the great news is we've solved that problem with the red wine shake. and if you're a beer guy, you can get a blue moon beer shake. so you can have your ice cream and your alcohol at the same

time. >> wow. what a world we live in these days. steve, thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> thanks, melissa. >> steve carley, the ceo of red robin gourmet burgers. a stock that's really seen some momentum the past month or so. who wants to try this? >> no. >> i don't know if i want to try that, but i'll try the stock. at 21.5 times next year's numbers, they're valuing territory in the casual dining space. i think it's very interesting what they're doing in the transformation, actually moving to less of a family place, to a more profitable bar environment. this is ultimately a place where they're getting much, much higher margins and where this value mix will really make sense. i think the momentum is back in the name. it's interesting. >> any name that runs 46% on a month you've got to watch. it's probably upwards sloping after this run-up, so 65 let's call it is the number it has to hold. if it holds there, you can add.

>> it's going to take a couple weeks if not a month for wall street analysts to get their head around what's going on. they talked about the royalty program and how they're actually using technology to get the people in. stocks have been on a tear because they have used technology. i think on the long run, this is a great buy. i would wait until about 60 bucks. >> he mentioned existentialism. you hear that? >> of course. >> john paul sarts wrote nausea. and nausea goes hand in hand with wine and your milkshake. >> how do you know that? i just had two sips of it. >> because i read the book. >> how do you know she's nauseous? >> looks delish. i don't recommend it for you, you're delicate. ceo gone. i'm still concerned about the asia exposure for sotheby's.

>> renren down 10%. >> it was supposed to be the it stock. it's lost 90% of its value since the ipo days. if you chart it, you can see the inverse relationship between the two. it trades like an option right now. >> foot locker down. >> the stock opened on basically an all-time high. good news, bad price action. it's telling you something. >> up 3%. tim. >> a stock that also first of all technically looks very interesting. has just done a deal with wal-mart to add to 36 states. so they've added effectively a corporate client to their growth, and this is to me a time the stock starts to run along with the entire space that's been so beaten up on oil prices. >> a slew of initiations hitting the street. the special top trades, initiation nation style, after the break. from record-breaking highs,

to major market meltdowns, every night, the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in-depth analysis and actionable advice. all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> i'm not getting out of retail, but by this time next week, i'll be out of most of them. >> this is "fast money." >> you really are certain you want to omit selling the puts is one way. >> have a question, tweet us @cnbcfastmoney.

♪ so tonight i'm gonna party like it's 1999 ♪ >> we're going with today's initiation. the firm starting microsoft's big gains year to date. noting microsoft's fundamentals haven't changed. specifically not doing anything to change the core business. >> it felt a little bit like 1999 today with the way some of these stocks traded, and microsoft is very appropriate to have this. now, we know that microsoft ran up because of the xp transition, because of a cycle of pc upgrades. that's probably over right now. i think when it hit 50, that was

your chance to get out. depending on how the tape trades, i think microsoft -- you're not going to get hurt in it, but i'd much rather wait for this thing to be closer to 44 before i got in. you've got a decent dividend yield, so you're not going to get hurt there. but the real question is the catalyst over the next six months to a year and i don't think we've seen that yet. >> do you think microsoft is an underperformer at this point? >> i think it's a neutral. this is a stock that i think is a very interesting stock. i would be in it for the dividend. i would be in it for big cap allocations. i think the company is slowly reworking itself. i think this is a six months ago stock. >> we actually want to take a look at microsoft and how it typically performs after rapid upswing. we ran a test of historical data. here's what we found. since 2000, there have been seven times when microsoft has rallied 30% over a six-month period. after that gain, microsoft's median return in the next six months was just 2.46%. but in that same period, there

have been a number of big outperformers. the median returns of priceline, amazon, f-5 networks have exceeded 30%. apple's median return was 23% just something to chew on. >> that's not a small move. i think implied in that is some fear the market either stalls here or moves a little bit lower, because that's pretty significant. 40 bucks from where it's currently trading is a pretty significant move. >> would you cut data to microsoft and maybe go into some of those other names? >> not of those names. particularly with amazon and priceline, those two seem to me to be a bit broken. i'd rather go someplace else. >> speaking of amazon, the initiation is amazon, along with a $410 price target. amazon's pullback presents a buying opportunity. the firm disagrees with the notion that management is indifferent toward stock performance. >> people seem to forget, october 23rd, a month ago, that quarter was a disaster. there was nothing good about that quarter.

operating margins were lousy. revenue was lousy. the whole thing, across the board, lousy. and the stock traded in kind down below 280. it has rallied significantly since then. so i think people are just forgetting. i don't think the next quarter is going to get much better. i think this call is a little bit playing stock market. i don't see it moving to that level. >> this stock has been growing revenues by 20% for the last decade. so how many other stocks that are over $100 billion can do that? >> tell me the answer? are you saying none? >> rhetorical. >> i'll ask him after the show. initiating the stock with a buyer rating of $122 price targets, citing seasonal tail winds and a rebound in commodities. >> hold on a second. see, that's surprising to me. talking about margins are doing a lot better. this is a company that since the crisis of 2008, this is a lean, mean company. but the north american

construction cycle -- yeah, i get that. that's going very well. but to say global tail winds from commodities and from global gdp, that's a quote in this report. that doesn't make sense to me at all. for a stock stuck at a significant resistance of 108-110, i don't like this call. i would be neutral at best on this stock. >> the note cited global gdp optimism. i don't know where that is. >> and if you think commodities are going higher, they're not going higher because there's this huge supercycle in commodities, so you're better off just going into the single names commodities. i'd rather buy fcx as opposed to caterpillar. >> i'm not a cat fan. i don't see where this call comes in. i think they make good points here. i don't see global gdp getting better at all. i don't think caterpillar is nearly as robust as the stock seems to indicate. i know a lot of people want to

plan on valuation. i don't get it. i'm not a fan of this at all. >> both are making a series of lower highs so that tim's point technically challenged on both names. cat, i wouldn't be a buyer here. it rallied off of china. it's going to be a sell next week. >> it's time now for the final trade. around the horn. tim? >> speaking of momentum, i bought puts today so i encourage people to sell it out. i think you're actually at a place where you trade this stock. expensive valuation. take some profit. >> said it in the beginning of the show, magnum hunter, mhr. this is your leverage bet in the energy space, it trades at $4.90. keep it on a short leash. >> you know what traded well today? despite the fact that the stock market is up? tlt and bonds. they were actually up today. you're getting a lot of flow from overseas. in fact, the most flow from overseas in the history of the treasury international capital flow data, you buy tlt right here. >> guy? >> the silent h was a theme this

week. >> he's a magnum unter. >> did i say hunter or unter? >> final trade. >> comcast. ringing the closing bell. bravo comcast. >> parent of this network, by the way. that does it for us here on "fast money." thanks for watching. we'll see you back here monday. but do not move, "options action" starts after this break. have a great weekend. ♪ for tapping into a wealth of experience... for access to one of the top wealth management firms in the country... for a team of financial professionals who provide customized solutions... for all of your wealth management and retirement goals, discover how pnc wealth management can help you achieve. visit pnc.com/wealthsolutions to find out more.

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this is "options action." tonight -- ♪ party all the time >> we'll tell you why a hangover could be in store. miss the rally of alibaba? relax, we have a way to get long the tech giant for just ten bucks. we'll show you how. and talk about strange. well, maybe not that strange. but wait until you hear about the unusual bet the commodities are about to