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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  November 25, 2014 6:00pm-7:01pm EST

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a lot more room for the rupp side. i am off tomorrow night. happy thanksgiving, turkey day. >> gobble gobble to everybody. safe travels in the snow tomorrow. i'm melissa my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not to entertain you, but educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or, of course, tweet me @jimcramer. so that's why we rallied. that was my reaction to this morning's amazing 3.9% gdp
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growth number for the third quarter. giving our country the fastest growth -- ♪ -- back-to-back quarterly growth, that we have had in ten years. that's a monumental turn. and while i typically don't care about these numbers, as you know, on a day when the dow inched three points lower, s&p down 3.2% and the nasdaq advanced 0.7%, this gdp number is so encouraging that i actually think it's worth to take a few moments out to discuss it. first, when you've had a run like the one we have had lately, it better be backed by something. this isn't a fed-inspired anymore, sure, these stocks are hanging in, but they are not generating the performance they once did. in fact, they've been left in the dust by the rest of the markets despite their terrific yields relative to treasuries. this market is now backed by the full faith and credit of higher profits and better growth than we thought. it is spurred on by the consumer
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spending more money. something that our country's gdp, which is 70% consumer driven totally affirms it's driven by a sense of security, wealth, and improvement that's making people more confident. that confidence results in more homes being built, more byes being started, and by people getting hired. >> all aboard! >> now, some would take issue with my statement this isn't a fed-fuelled rally, but let me ask you, if the federal reserve isn't buying bonds now, how can we lay this one off on them? the recognition of the self sustaining nature of this particular stock market move changes one of the most important equations that we've been dealing with in the market for many years. for the longest time, even the bulls held once we got some actual economic strength going, the rally, of course, would have to fizzle. that's because the fed would begin to raise rates and higher rates would create too much competition for stock dollars, while also slowing down the economy and causing earnings
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shortfalls. what's amazing is that both longs and shorts, people who were bulls and bears, believe this. we heard many a bull say that as long as rates remain low, they want to buy stocks, particularly ones with really good yields, because they can't get the return they need from bonds, but once the fed ends its bond buying program because the economy overheats, well, then they are going to -- sell, sell, sell! how many times do we have to deal with that, right? then they'll go buy bonds with the money. we had many a bear talking about how rates must go higher. you may not have known this at the time, but many of these people were doing what i call talking their books, meaning they tended to be both short the bond market and the stock market so they needed rates higher and stocks lower to meet their performance benchmarks, to get paid. they call for a bear market in order to make big money. they haven't gotten it. both of these camps were so fed-centric that every time we heard the fed say it would buy up its bond buying program, they went nuts.
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the scaredy cats, they'd blow out of their stocks at extremely low prices and the stall wart shorts would stoke our fears and then feast off them. that's why i've said for years don't listen to these fed talkers. now, what am i talking about with greed? i'm talking about two kinds of greed. one is the kind that comes from being rich already and not wanting your own wealth to base by cheap money. that's real. and there's the greed where fund managers betting against the market wanted the help of the fed that would betightening before it should, thereby, creating chaos in the economy. alas, the motivation doesn't matter, the impact was the same. if you thought things were getting better in the economy, then you had to sell. that's right, for ages the conventional wisdom said bad was good, worse the economy, better the stock market would be. or to put it another way, the stronger the economy is, the worse the stock market will be. i'll concede, i'll concede, that
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was an adequate prop to the market for years, and i'm not dismissing it at least historically, but this most recent advance, the one that started earlier this year, is not predicated on the bad is good and good is bad cliche, no, not at all. it's powered by higher profits without an increase in inflation that would make the fed tighten. it is true normally you would expect higher interest rates as a matter of course. that isn't happening for three good reasons. one is, the world away from us, dire straits. little wage inflation, and little commodity inflation. we have interest rates around the world ridiculously low, including spain and italy that are lower than ours, even as the countries were on the verge of default a couple years ago. those rates are keeping a ceiling on our rates. we do have higher employment, but not higher wages and there's still plenty of people looking for work. as for commodity inflation, oil hit a four-year low just today. the point is this 3.9% gdp
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number comes at a time when things are so weak overseas, that we, we, are the big beneficiary. worldwide beneficiary of money being thrown at us, which brings me to the crux of the story. i've been investing in the stock market since 1979. the best parts of whatever rallies we have come on when we get just the kind of 5:00 semiration in earnings that this gdp number would imply. makes sense. there's funds all over the world. the big money always wants to go where the economies are strongest, not weakest. the u.s. with its relative strength is going to get more foreign money in to buy stocks, not less. okay, so how does it play out on a daily basis in the small unit combat that we see every day in the stock market? let's use the example of apple, which happened to at one point reach a $700 billion market cap today. [ applause ] all right, that's a huge amount, of course, but you know me, for ages i have said to own apple, not sell it or trade it, but to own it, well, $700 billion, so
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far so good. here's why. despite its amazing run, it's up 47% year to date, apple only sells at 15 times next year's earnings estimates. remember, that's how we do apples to apples, price earning multiples 15. right now the average stock sells at 18 times earnings. you have to ask yourself, how is that possible? doesn't apple, with its superior growth characteristics, new products ahead, and ample opportunity to buy back stock deserve the trade as high as the average stock? i mean, is it mediocre? no! isn't it odd that it trades at a discount to the average s&p 500 security? i think the answer is obvious, the answer is yes. say you have trillions overseas, you want to be in our country because money is drawn to the strongest countries with the best growth and a currency that's most likely to appreciate. that's the united states. you want to own big capitalization stocks that are inexpensive that you can get in and out of. that means you're going to buy a stock like apple. that's pretty much how the global investment process works.
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of course, it also works in a larger way, a foreign investor can buy the entire s&p 500, knowing it has superior growth characteristics to the market in their own country. remember, the united states is now a magnet for the world's wealth and we're going to keep pulling that money in as long as our economy stays strong and their economies keep faltering. like i like to say, their weakness is our strength! >> buy, buy, buy! >> let me give you the bottom line. before you think, wow, we're now way too high given that good news is bad news, because now the fed will tighten, remember that the fed isn't the deciding point anymore. many people may say it is. those people -- it's growth. it's profits, and, yes, we have them in spades. the other guys don't. sometimes that is all you need to know to justify where stocks have been and where they are headed. let's go to brian in california. brian. >> caller: big hidden valley lake boo-yah, jim, to you and your wonderful father.
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>> thank you. >> caller: jim, a lot of big news recently for colony financial. they've made a lot of headway with their purchase of kobalt capital for $1.6 billion and their merger agreement with colony capital, which includes three to five-year employment contracts for tom bar rack and his upper management team. where do you see this stock headed in the future? >> typically, colony financial, i would not go for it, but i have known mr. barrack for a long time, and i think the way i used to feel with mr. farrell at anali, i think mr. barrack is bankable and i approve you buying this and i like the 6% yield. he's a real deal. know him long enough to say that. austin in california, austin. >> caller: jim, happy thanksgiving. >> thank you, same. zblg thanks for having me on. i would like to know your feelings on utx and would like to know if anybody knows why the ceo stepped down yesterday. >> that's a great question, very
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facetious this morning, some people thought i was a crab on "squawk on the street" because i kept saying, listen, if technologies feels they don't need to tell us anything, i guess that's the new way to do it. it is a terrible way to do it, i don't like it, but here's what i'm hearing and they can come on the show and tell me otherwise, i am hearing this new fella that's come in doesn't like the current configuration and that's why the stock was up so much. i'm with him, it's been a terrible underperformer, time for better performance. if that's what happened, i'm all in favor. united technologies, listen to me, you guys are real guys and you have a real board. you know what shame is? it's what you should be feeling. molly in florida, please, molly. >> caller: hi, jim. >> molly. >> caller: calling from melbourne, florida. >> fantastic, near my friend, man, we'll have to go down to spanish house and do some surfing. >> caller: absolutely. >> all right. >> caller: i have a small holding in nike, couple hundred shares, it's up 23%. of course, they just announced
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that 17% dividend increase, and i'm wondering if i should start trimming. >> nope, nope, i want you to hold it. by the way, when you say small holding, let's understand each other, that's a huge amount of capital, 200 shares of nike, $97, huge amount to you and me, i applaud you for being in a great stock and want you to hold on to it. no fed, no problem. that's not the deciding point anymore. others say it is. listen to me, you know, been managing money since '79, maybe i know something. it's growth and it's profits, which we have, and that's all we need to justify where stocks could most likely go. what's on "mad" tonight? another day, another all-time high. then, what's better than booze, burgers, and ski ball? how about making money off all three? i'm digging into dave and buster's to see if this mecca of games and grub can be your ticket to profits. plus, natural organic food player haines saless chal.
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will the stock help you gobble up gains? i'll ask the ceo. stick with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com, or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. it's more than the driver. it's more than the car. for lotus f1 team, the competitive edge is the cloud. powered by microsoft dynamics, azure, and office 365, the team can gain real time insights and instantly share information around the globe.
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>> we really appreciate you out there, man. >> boo-yah to my kids, they are in elementary school learning so much from you. >> boo-yah, mr. cramer. >> i know you hear this all the time, jim, but thank you, thank you, so much. >> this has been my best year by far and away in the market. >> i want to thank you, you know, for looking out for the regular guys out there. >> great to hear your voice and know that you're there for us. >> from our family to yours, happy thanksgiving, cramerica. ♪ as this market continues to slowly power higher, even with occasional small dips like the
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one we had today, there's something that's been really confounding the chart watchers, and that's what exactly the cbo volatility index, the vix, aka the fear gauge, is doing right here. so tonight we're going off the charts to take a closer look at what they might be saying with the help of mark sebastian, the founder of optionpit.com, as well as being our resident vix expert on "mad money," he's been nailing this vix nine ways to sunday. here's the issue, even though the volatility index is at historically low levels right now, trading at $12 and change, okay, the reality is that in the last few weeks, whatever market volatility there was has completely vanished. in fact, sebastian points out while the s&p 500 is just a few points off all-time highs today, the vix, bizarrely, is more than two points higher than where it was the last time the s&p was making new highs. that's an anomaly. remember, when the market's climbing, we want the vix at low
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levels, signaling stocks could soon be taking a turn to the worse, which is why we talk about it. back in the summer, june and july, pretty darn frequently, the vix was trading at 10.5, and if it was a 10.5 right now, sebastian says he'd be completely comfortable with this rally, no worries, but it's not. the vix, which is a really pretty good proxy for the level of fear in the market is trading two points higher than that, so the question is, why? why do traders feel less comfortable than when we were rallying this summer? why is there more fear right now? sebastian thinks the answer is simple, the u.s. equity markets have a ton of noise around them right now. remember what the volatility index actually represents, it's the cost of ensuring a portfolio via s&p futures options. well, there are actually other, more specialized vix indexes you may not know about. and they are going crazy. take a look at the evz, which measures the volatility of
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options on the exchange rate between the euro and the u.s. dollar. look at this. how about the ovz, which measures the volatility of options on the u.s. oil etf, both of which closed at new highs for the year today, even as the s&p 500 was making, you know, moving around near an all-time high. this is incredible. these are huge spikes. check out those charts of the two volatility indexes and here's the thing, either of these two indexes which measure the euro versus the dollar and the spiking volatility in the price of oil are making people a lot -- a bit more afraid here. sebastian believes they are actually a sign that the big picture volatility index is going lower into the end of the year, not higher, which suggests the stock market, therefore, has more room to run. i don't know, let me give you his reasoning. simple, it's about interest rates. right now there's speculation the federal reserve might raise rates in the middle of next year. sebastian says that just isn't going to happen.
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his charts say no. and when more people realize it won't happen, then the market will rally again, just a main street of time before the stock market figures out interest rates. he has reasons, i thought they were sound when i went over them. u.s. economy is reaching full employment and there's a real risk of inflation, so let's start with inflation. why is the evz, the vix for the euro versus the dollar exploding upwards? is it because the u.s. dollar has been tanking and fearings all-time lows against the euro? no, it's just the opposite. the dollar is near multi-year highs against the euro, many other currencies. there's another way to measure inflation. if we can see if commodity prices are rising, but look at the crash in the price of west texas interimmediate cat crude, four-year low. look at the incredibly low price of corn futures right here. a hugely important staple crop. or how about soybean futures?
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they are both multi-year lows. in fact, besides meat-related prices, almost all are at lows. inflation simply isn't an issue right now. but you're worried about employment, employment's been strong. how about the employment side of the picture? i want to show you another chart here. yes, it's true the unemployment rate is back below 6%. wasn't that the all-important, key target for the fed? however, we also need to consider the u-6 unemployment rate, which also includes mar jijally attached workers, those who aren't looking for work, but still want jobs, as well as people looking for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time job. this chart measures the top line unemployment rate versus the u-6 measure and as you can see here, the spread is enormous. while top line unemployment is 5.8%, historically speaking, a wide spread. in other words, there are a lot of people who are still out of
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work, who are working part-time, but they want to be full-timers. why does it matter? even as job growth is improving, this stubborn u-6 unemployment means there's still a ton of slack in the labor market and it's going to have a crushing effect on personal income growth net of inflation, a statistic the fed has been watching like a hawk. in other words, what the fed really cares about is wage inflation, not so much the employment number. wage inflation is totally stagnant. this chart says it will continue to be stagnant. that's bad news for most americans, but good news for the stock market, because it means the fed is much less likely to raise rates any time soon. keeps the fed checked. that's why he thinks it's unlikely the fed will raise rates in 2015 and certainly won't happen in the first or second quarter. no wonder the yield is down 2.3%. meanwhile, the yield on two-year treasury is 2.5%. believe me, if fed were to raise rates, we wouldn't be sitting next to historical lows, which
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brings me back to the volatility index. perhaps it's because equity markets lack interest rates. take a look at this daily chart of the s&p 500 and the volatility index. the last time the stock market figured out janet yellen wasn't going to do anything any time soon was this past may when the bond market yields took a really nice tumble, okay, about a month later, the s&p was hitting new highs on a daily basis and the vix was trading down to ten. see, so that was the bond, figured it out rates weren't going to go up, vix goes down to here. sebastian thinks the same pattern could play out once fed watchers realize the yellow is not going to raise rates next year and certainly not in the first half, he thinks this goes down maybe trading to 11, perhaps even $10, back to where it was. try to do that in more of a straight line, back to where it was back then, which means it
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could really come in another couple of bucks. and he predicts the s&p 500 will then break out above 2100, so vix going down, s&p going higher. here's the bottom line, the charts interpreted paint a pretty clear picture, no reason to worry, and that's going to send the stock market higher and cause another lower for the vix! all right, much more "mad money" ahead. including stocks surging off ski ball and a wide selection of food and beverages, can dave and buster's help you score profits? don't miss my take. >> then almost turkey time, can hain celestial turn your portfolio into a cornucopia of profits? i'm going in the kitchen with the ceo. plus the saudis, opec oil, and how they factor in the health of our bull market. why don't you stay with cramer?
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boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain.
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the house tried to keep out all the water, but water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down. they just didn't think it could happen. they told the house they would take better care of her... always. announcer: protect what matters. get flood insurance. back in october, gary from virginia asked me about dave & buster's entertainment. that's play, p-l-a-y for you home gamers. jumped 8% on its first day of trading and continued to rally another 25% since then. whenever i see a rookie ipo surging, i always want to take a closer look comparing to existing players in the field to see if the stock has more room to run or if it's out of gas.
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so how about dave & buster's? this company has an intriguing concept, 73 locations that are part restaurant, part bar, and part gaming center. in fact, dave & buster's gets about half its revenue from games, including everything from traditional games, modern high-tech video games, which is about as differentiated as it gets in this business, right? hey, you know what, it's kind of like a chucky cheese for adults. when my kids were younger, pop and i, we would take them to dave & buster's pier in the delaware river in philadelphia and have a grand old time while spending a ton of money to win tickets for trinkets that were worth very little. what a business model! how does this company and its stocks stack up against the rest of the casual dining spaces? in 2011, dave & buster's generated sames stores sales roughly 3%, while the average during that period is 1.5% over the same time. more important, though, in the first half of this year, the company posted a 5% increase to same stores sales and the most
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recent quarter they had a 5.7% increase. those are solid numbers. i think the entertainment part of the business does a good job of insulating the company against competition. if you want to eat and drink and play games while eating good food, you can't do that at other restaurant chains, plus, dave & buster's has robust special events business where they host private parties and corporate parties, average check for one of these things comes in at over $1,000 and roughly 20% of the guests being first-time visitors, meaning this part of the business is a great way to acquire new customers. once you're in there, it is kind of exciting. really, dave & buster's is all about the experience. i think the closest comparison might be buffalo wild wings, which is where you would go if you want to drink, eat wings, watch sports. bwld has been a terrific stock and if dave & buster's can follow in their footsteps, it could potentially have a lot more upside than where it is
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now. speaking of buffalo wild wings in the comparison, dave & buster's rolled out a new restaurant design where they added a separate bar and lounge area where customers can watch sporting events, plus the company's a corporate sponsor for the ultimate fighting organization and have screening rooms for every ufc pay per view event, if that's your thing. meanwhile, the economics of running a particular dave & buster's location are pretty darn attractive. average unit volumes of $3.3 million, more than double of the casual dining group of roughly $4 million and better than everyone else in the space except for the cheesecake factory at $10.4 million, but aside trt cheesecake, nobody else comes close to dave & buster's. it's pretty easy to understand why play is bringing in more than twice as much money as an ordinary restaurant, since more than half of the revenues stem from high margin games and another 16% comes from alcoholic beverages. put those two high margin revenue sources together and it's no surprise dave & buster's had a unit level margin of
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roughly 25% last year and that is much higher, this is what matters, relative if you don't understand, relative is 17% for average for typical casual dining chains. in other words, it's much more lucrative. again, only one chain had better numbers here than dave & buster's, and this time it's chipotle with 27% unit level margin, but chipotle, league of its own. however, even when you factor out the entertainment side of the business, dave & buster's looks good with a growth margin 74.5%, better than everyone else in the group, save the cheesecake factories, bj's, and red robin gourmet. cash on cash returns of 44%. when i saw that number, i said, man, that is really impressive. look at the five locations open in 2013, their numbers are better with one-year cash on cash returns of 58%. we know the existing stores are doing well, but what about the opportunity to expand?
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okay, dave & buster's currently has 73 locations, imagine taking that number to 200 across north america with a potential of another 50 sites overseas. in other words, they could nearly triple the store count in north america, which is exactly the kind of opportunity i like to see before i commit to a growth stock. we know by the end of the year dave & buster's will have opened six to seven new units, averaging 10% growth, again, that's impressive. going forward, though, the company is expected to accelerate, bringing the growth rate up to 10%, 11%, again, we like that growth. put it all together and dave & buster's should be able to easily generate growth for the next few years, which could translate into 20% earnings growth. those are good numbers for a restaurant chain. let's remember this is a good time for the restaurant space in general, employment getting stronger, gasoline plummeting. spare change goes far at dave & buster's. how about the balance sheet? since going public, dave & buster's has $430 million in debt. that's a lot, but not too terrible when you consider the
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company should be able to generate $120 to $130 million in ocf, operating cash flow this year, more than enough to finance new restaurant openings with $20 or $30 million in cash, but left over to continue to pay down the debt. all right, it's a big one, i remember this company from long ago, dave & buster's used to be public before it was taken private in dwooif. i've got to tell you, the old public dave & buster's had a checkered hit or miss history on earnings, however, they did bring in new management in 2006 and after spending nearly a decade in private hands, i think it's possible the new dave & buster's will be an kbroouflt over its previous publicly traded incarnation, so we like the company. what about the stock? all right, this is a little tougher. it trades at 26 times its forward earnings estimates, slight premium to the average casual dining chain, however, when you factor in the growth rate, dave & buster's has a p.e.g., peg ratio, of 1.3, making it cheaper than the
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casual dining stock, again on a growth basis, all my books have peg ratio if you're trying to understand what it means. my view, i think this new dave & buster's is better than average, but i also recognize as a restaurant/entertainment play, it's somewhat difficult for money managers to categorize, which means less likely to get sponsorship from the wall street promotion machine, they can't figure it out. still, dave & buster's reports in three weeks, december 16th. i expect the results good. very few companies that become public, they don't screw it up out of the chute, so bottom line on dave & buster's, sure, play has run since it's public last month, but could have more upside as a publicly traded company and those results could send it higher right through the end of the year. to me that means dave & buster's is worth owning, but remember, small cap name, use limit orders, only buy into weakness, no matter how small or how
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temporary. scott in texas, scott? >> caller: boo-yah, jim, from the heart of the oil field down here in south texas. >> well, we love south texas and intend to head there very soon. what's up? >> caller: well, i had a question about tyson's recent quarter and lower feed and transportation costs, i just wanted to get your opinion on the nation's largest egg producer. >> if the stock were lower, interested, but the stock has had a very big run, so i'm not going to go there. take a look what happened to hormel today when they reported just a slightly difficult number, the stock dropped 5%. cal-main is not for me, too hard. i like a quality food play, while listening to what hain has to say. those are better. all right, now you have a play-by-play, i think dave & buster's can continue scoring, it's worth owning, but please, use limit orders. much more "mad money" ahead. including what could be the answer to the market's biggest question mark and what it means to your money. plus, organic food caught many
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off guard, but not this distributor. with thanksgiving days away, is it time to carve out space for hain? i'll talk to the ceo. plus, more questions than your in-laws will throw at you when you sit down for turkey, but this will be way more profitable. the lightning round is just ahead, so why not stick with cramer?
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look at hain celestial's run. here's the stock i've been recommending for years, including get rich carefully, as one of the best ways to embrace organic and natural foods, which have gone from being a niche market for rich people to being part of the mainstream, with pretty much every single supermarket out there now having an organic aisle, including walmart, some places many more than just an aisle, and hain celestial is the king of organic and natural foods. might recognize celestial seasonings, greek gods yogurt, many, many more. stock has been roaring of late since we last spoke to the ceo three months ago. over this month, november 6th, hain reported 68 cents a share, one-cent beat on a much higher than expected base that rose 34.6% year over year, thanks in
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part to their uk business. in a world where most packaged food companies are starved for any growth, hain is scoring like a weed, and i'm honestly surprised it hasn't been snapped up by a larger player in the industry. even without a takeover, i think this stock is going higher, simply based on the strength of its earnings. don't take it from me, though, let's check in with irwin simon, chairman and ceo of hain celestial, mr. simon, welcome back to "mad money." >> jim, so good to see you, i'm glad you're okay. good to see you. >> thank you very much, i appreciate that. we're going to talk turkey. from your conference call, this is a big quarter. we will sell 1.5 million turkeys. a lot of turkeys. >> you know what, listen, thanksgiving the next couple days, it is amazing, jim, what i'm seeing in the consumer today, how they want wellness, how they want health, they are willing to spend the extra dollars. one of the number one things that whole foods, organic turkeys is selling, so we'll
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sell 1.5 million turkeys of antibiotic and organic. >> it's your turkey. >> if you come back and look at it, how it's raised and they are concerned about antibiotics. and again, the consumer is willing to pay more, probably a dollar more a pound, but the whole thing, it's not calories, it's what's going into my body and what am i eating, and the consumers out there are spending the money for it. i've never seen the demand for antibiotic-free, organic, not just turkey, stuffing, it's the zbraify mixes and soups and butternut squash that's going along with it. >> one of the things you say, it doesn't drop off like it used to be. the day after thanksgiving is not a day we stop eating organic turkey. >> hey, lose weight and drop the pounds, listen, coming into the holiday season, one of our busiest times right now, and again, it's just not whole foods, it's just not sprouts, it's just not trader joe's, kroger has one of the biggest
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natural, organic food divisions out there within their stores, and whether it's walmart, target moving into health and wellness. >> doesn't he have to write you a check basically? you've developed one-stop shop. what's all these acquisitions about, i envision the acquisitions high, irwin, this is brian cornell, you know me in sam's, from pepsi-co., i need you to stock my aisles with what you have. >> listen, and i'll be glad to stock his aisles with plenty of products. listen, we had meetings with, you know, with target. they don't have carrot chips and garden of edin, they are going to have it shortly, but you come back and look at all our products. >> we love lays. >> the whole thing with target and the made to matter and how they are bringing out more and more products, so as you take that and move it across so many different chains, you know, before i got here today, i was with panera a good part of the day and boyer, they are changing
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their recipes. >> should we be worried about that? >> listen, a lot of change going on there. >> making changes. >> big thing is, jim, what ron wants to do and what his consumers are walking in and saying, hey, we want the experience of healthy, nutritional food, okay, they know what antibiotic-free is. they don't want to be mcdonald's. they want to be perceived as health and nutrition. >> today we want calories, look, i want to know the calories, but i want to know if it's natural or organic, is that next? >> listen, it's not so much the calories. >> right. chipotle is fattening. i just want it to be good for me. >> we don't want processed food, we don't want high sodium, and that's why you're seeing weight watchers and nutrisystems, that's calorie and portion control. we eat good food, focus on wellness, we're going to be healthy. >> you're not worried the gmo defeats were the high watermark? >> listen, i think what happened in oregon and colorado and
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washington state has been great. listen, five years ago, you know, consumers didn't know what genetically modified ingredients are, and you know what, there are a ton of money that went after the gmo defeat and we still only lost by 51%. so again, there's a big enough audience out there for us, jim, even with the defeat. >> not worried about campbell's moving in, plum organics, full house. >> here again, hey, just to come back here, i and hain will not change the way the world eats by itself. big food companies got to change their ingredients, because you know what, that's what consumers want. listen, wellness 20 years ago, most consumers did not know what it is. 94%, 95% consumers focus on wellness, jim. >> that's why they eat this kind of food. >> that's why they are eating antibiotic-free turkeys. >> i'm with you, that's irwin simon, chairman, president, ceo of hain celestial.
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remains a terrific stock. "mad money" back after the break. happy thanksgiving. mr. cramer, absolutely love the show. >> we really appreciate you out there, man. >> boo-yah to my kids in elementary school learning so much from you. >> boo-yah, mr. cramer. >> i know you hear this all the time, jim, but thank you, thank you, thank you so much. >> this has been my best year by far and away in the market. >> i just want to thank you for, you know, looking out for the regular guys out there. >> great to hear your voice and know that you're there for us. >> from our family to yours, happy thanksgiving, cramerica. now that the elections are finally over, it's time to get to work fixing our long-term national debt to help build a stronger economy. with a solid fiscal foundation, we can create more jobs, invest more in innovation and infrastructure,
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and make america more competitive, giving our kids a better future. a bipartisan solution to our long-term debt means more growth today, more opportunity tomorrow. and the time to start is now. (horn, ding, ding) how long have i had my car insurance? i don't know, eight, ten years. i couldn't tell you but things were a lot less expensive back then. if you're 50 or over you should take a new look at your auto insurance. you may be overpaying. actually that makes lot of sense. old policy. old rates. and thanks to your experience behind the wheel, you might save $404 by switching to the aarp auto insurance program from the hartford. plus, you'll get benefits that reward your driving record, like our promise that you won't be dropped. wait, you won't drop me? seriously? that's right, you won't be dropped.
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and, if you know anyone who's been dropped by their insurance company, you know that's a hassle you don't need. especially these days. plus you'll get recovercare, which helps you pay for everyday needs like house cleaning, lawn care and pet services if you're injured in an accident. so my auto insurance is going to help pay my house cleaning if i get injured? did you say lawn care? and if i can't walk my dog, they'll help me pay someone to do it for me? call the number on your screen to switch to the aarp auto insurance program from the hartford and be rewarded for your experience behind the wheel. recovercare, auto insurance that helps take care of me. now i've seen it all. you won't drop me, you take care of me as well as my car, and you offer savings to switch. it's unbelievable! if you're 50 or over call now to request your free quote. i'm gonna call. i'm calling. i'm calling. i'm calling. call the hartford
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at the number on you screen to request your free quote. we'll even send you this free calculator. call: now. why wait. lightning round is sponsored by -- td ameritrade. it is time! it is time for the lightning round, rapid fire. and then lightning round is over. are you ready? time for the lightning round, let's start with mike in california. mike! >> caller: hello, cramer. >> mike. >> caller: alcoa. >> it's been slow a bit, but that's okay, it's gathering strength. i like the new company, much more aerospace related and i
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think it goes higher! p.k. in georgia, p.k.! >> caller: hey, jim, how are you doing? >> i'm all right, how about you? >> caller: great. i give condolence for your father. you're an awesome individual, proud of you, and keep up the good work. >> thank you. >> caller: my question is, amd, hold, buy, or sell? >> i don't want you to touch it. i'm going to bless sky works solution, that's the best. if you wanted to own one with a good yield, i do not want you to touch amd. nicolas, nicolas! >> caller: hey, what's going on, jim? nicolas out in los angeles. i'm calling you about leapfrog, is it slowly adding position? >> no, no, no! little cap thing, listen, i'm willing to bless hasbro, but not that guy. let's go to leo in michigan. leo! >> caller: hey, mr. cramer. >> yes. >> caller: boo-yah from frozen michigan. >> okay. >> caller: and thank you for all your insight and books. >> thank you. >> caller: actually, that's what
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led me to my dilemma. i'm an older person, looking for dividends, and couple three years ago i purchased the stock at your recommendation and the stock symbol was epd. >> what a horse, man! listen to me, older person, younger person, doesn't matter, that stock is a winner, also they are going to be able to export. they are in the cat bird seat. let's go to bruce in missouri. bruce! >> caller: hey, jim, thanks for taking my call. i'm calling about freeport. >> talk about the winners, let's talk about the losers. this is one of the worst. i think it's too close to sell right now, but copper has broken down, i know there's good ideas maybe they cut back in copper production. i am not going to recommend them. let's go to john in texas. john. >> caller: hi, jim. stock apk -- >> they are making that merger. it's had some problems, but i'm going to stick with atk.
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i think the business is actually pretty good. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the -- lightning round! >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. alookin' good! close it up! got it. ... and then, santa's helpers boarded the train, and off they went. and that's how we got it. wowww ... you guys must've been really good this year.
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the magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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at this incredible moment, so many things are going right that it's worth wondering whether we might be in the sweet spot. not just for ultra low interest rates, but also for the other huge thing that's been buoying
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our economy, oil. whenever oil's going up or down, we have a tendency to believe there's a where she stops nobody knows component to pricing, but with thursday's opec meeting now looming and oil closing at a four-year low today, it actually might be worth considering the idea that perhaps oil, after a nearly $2 plunge to $74 today might be nearing equilibrium. think of it like this, at the one hand, 3.9% clip, number we heard about this morning. our growth is accelerating, meaning domestic demand for oil will improve, on the other hand -- so i think it's safe to say that when it comes to the demand for crude, the u.s. is counterbalancing pretty much everyone else, equilibrium. now, it's possible at thursday's meeting opec will announce it will happy to let prices stay here and not go lower, because some places need to make more money for their budgets. the shortage, however, their goal, they want to flood the
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world with oil to destroy economically drilling for crude in this country, that way we'll have to keep defending the saudi government against the many threats in the east. it will always seem to me that most of the nations in opec are merely followers that take their cue from saudi arabia, but right now the governments of venezuela and nigeria are in dire straits and need crude to hold and not go higher, so i don't think the saudis will unilaterally take oil prices down even lower than they are already, given or take a little bit, meanwhile, the united states is producing at such a high rate leaving it to importing down from six years ago. given the technology we're using these days, it makes economic sense for us to drill so long as oil stays right here. of course, crude oil from the
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lower 48, we get export refine products like gasoline, so we can maintain these gasoline prices even if opec decides higher, not lower, is the way to go. truth is opec is a lot less important than it used to be. most americans believe the price of gasoline will go right back up, but we're producing too much oil for that to happen. most speculate tors will think the price of crude will continue to plummet, but the saudis don't have the ability to put prices much lower without risking the breakup of opec. sure, companies want higher prices to make higher profits, they'll make less money, however, all but the most marginal players will make enough money to keep drilling. for all these reasons, i think the supply and demand for oil are in balance here in the low 70s. i think these prices, again, give or take $5 might in fact be the correct prices for the market. we may truly be in equilibrium. if that's the case, be prepared for the american consumer to keep spending and the downturn oil to only crush the marginal
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players. that is, in many ways, the perfect world for our economy and our stock market, and it's worth remembering that whenever you get too bearish about the current situation. stick with cramer.
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first, i'm liking what i hear from hewlett pack ard. remember, the company is splitting into two companies and you're going to get that hp that has that 3d printing, i don't expect 3d printing to be a big needle mover in 2015, but you know what, we're almost in 2015,
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then you're going to start thinking about the earnings breakout the year after. hewlett packard, i would hold on to it. how do you like that hain? i think it is going to have a very good quarter, and i want you to stick with this natural and organic theme. by the way, i still like white way. there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to find it just for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow! mr. cramer, absolutely love the show. >> we really appreciate you out there, man. >> boo-yah to my kids in elementary school learning so much from you. >> boo-yah, mr. cramer. >> i know you hear this all the time, jim, but thank you, thank you, thank you so much. >> this has been my best year by far and way in the market. >> i just want to thank you for, you know, looking out for the regular guys out there. >> great to hear your voice and know that you're there for us. >> from our family to yours, happy thanksgiving, cramerica.
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lemonis: tonight on "the profit"... that was freakin' awesome. ...a baseball-novelty business based in coopersburg, pennsylvania, has struck out with their key major league baseball clients... you don't even know what you have in here. ...and the stubborn owner... it's toxic in here. ...who has a hard time letting go of the past. honestly, you can't be in this business anymore. scott: i've been doing this for 25 years. lemonis: if i can't change the focus of this all-american business... if you don't evolve, you will die. wendy: [ voice breaking ] you know, i worry about his sleepless nights, his stress. lemonis: ...then it may just be game over. scott: cowboy up. lemonis: my name is marcus lemonis, and i fix failing businesses. if you don't like money, don't follow my process. i make the tough decisions.

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