street. "squawk alley" is live. ♪ welcome to "squawk alley," joining us this morning john steinbergs, jon fortt, kayla tausche as always. market's not doing a lot but we we might see some trouble for tablet this is holiday season. according to research growth in tablet sales will fall to 7.2% this year. one of the main reasons is that ipad shipments are expected to

fall by about 12%. the first decline this apple's history. pcs only expected to fall about 2%. what is the story in tablets right now? >> i'm not sure this forecast is right first of all. apple is such a big part of this market and their sales are so hard to forecast because a lot of of nem come from their own retail stores. overall the pc and tablet markets are becoming more and more difficult to distinguish. you're getting touch functions inside regular pcs and things like the office suite in tablet. so as long as a company has a play in both sides they have a chance to do okay. apple benefits if the tablet market grows faster than the pc because they have bigger share there. but they also have high margins in pc. >> we saw sequential declines, year over year declines two quarters in a row on ipads. the q 4 quarter for apple, 7%

sequential unit decline. >> i'm going on a limb and saying these numbers are wrong. they don't into account the fact that a lot of people are going to go into apple stores looking for the 6 and 6 plus and come out with ipads as well. >> the holiday quarter, the kurn quarter we're in, being part of the first full year decline. but when you think about the price point after the tablet versus a pc the tablet is better gift overall. >> in unless you look at chrome books. i'll tell you on the tablets i give talks to advertisers and techy, very geeky crowds. how many have an ipad? every hand goes up. how many have had the same ipad for 3 to 4 years. every hand goes up. no upgrade cycle. >> apple shares yesterday, a pretty severe reversal off that record high. i think the highest volume since the recent highs or recent low

rather. but back to 118 and change today. people wondering if maybe it is finally getting expensive. senior vp selling $7 million worth of stock between the 21st and 24th. >> that's just walking around money. >> maybe a fourth of his total holdings. >> they lick daquidate their ho education so frequently. maybe he's buying a the house in tah tahoe. >> holiday shopping. >> yeah. >> and the other thing in liquidating that holding you can potentially go back and get more offerings as well. >> despite starting down this morning, shares rallied for hp. here is what sarah told david

faber. >> we're seeing real life in the consumer segment. commercial was first to come back on the xp migration. but we expect the consumer to be strong. we saw strong results in the fourth quarter and again i think it is a refresh cycle. what drove the commercial side was okay time to upgrade, xp. we haven't upgraded in a while. and now eer you are seeing the consumer start the same thing. we ought to be able to gain market share as the industry consolidates. so the outlook is good into 15 and 16. >> talked about cost control. the opportunity to reinvent the company. u.s.a. today calling the sprout, is this a new hp or not? >> meg is doing a masterful job

managing it and the image. but i keep coming back to fundamental. one the pc business is a not going to continue forever. it is the commoditized business they are fortunate to still be in and they couldn't manage enterprise growth in north america. everybody else in enterprise is doing really well in america. so the fact that pcs are still the lead thing for them i have concern for the other side. >> and enterprise group decline in every place except networking. what happens when they split? everybody is doing crazy stuff in enterprise right now. what is going to happen to that enterprise company? is that like times coming off the print division. is it left for dead? >> particularly in areas like storage where they made big

acquisitions. they are supposed to be growing. software is flat. that is an area supposed to be growing. networking cisco is up and still particularly strong. their growth not impressive given the overall marketplace. >> david asked her about michael dell's comments earlier this week. specifically the fact that dell can completely reinvent itself as the private company. meanwhile big tech giants likes hp are lumbering with no direction and no focus. and she basically dispelled that. we'll be able to focus, we'll be able to innovate. it is great fun what we're doing. do you buy that? >> it's the fud game. fear uncertainty and doubt. dell managed to power through that and now dell has the position where he can sit and fire arrows down at the public companies. but time will tell. >> if you talk to any dell

bondholders right now they would tell you it doesn't look as rosie as op ed. >> the other issue taking about why the split makes sense. and generally they do. but here we are seeing the consumerization of enterprise technology where people want tools like sales force and slack and ipads to be able to do work functionality and splitting companies at time like this might be difficult. >> the amazon drone wars over before they even started? expected faa regulations will make drones too expensive for small businesses and unusable. in particular they cite the requirement that operators have a pilot's license. >> to call this topic near and dear is unsds stating. >> for my son applying to school i had to list my hobbies for application. and i listed drone flying. drone flying is my number one

hobby right now. with that said. >> this is video of you. >> this is personal drown flying. amateurs need on regulated. one lost control and crashed on a street a few feet from a daughter and a bicycle. faa needs to give more leniency. we need amazon to be able do this delivery and these different things. i don't think commercial is where the worry should be. i think amateurs are the worry. >> and that footeniage makes me little worried. don't you think there could be an industry that pops up where some pilots could be in huge demand on an hourly or contracted basis. why not? >> yes but. the play here is international markets. places like india where the street systems are not laid out as well for truck delivery. where there are not addresses in

the same ways. you will see pilots of these drone programs happening there. and then the u.s. is going to have to adjust. >> there is so much innovation, and so much economic growth to be had. i think dji which makes the phantom drone, we'll be talking about that company like we talked about gopro. and if we can't allow the industry to blossom, then the faa is doing a disservice. the faa doesn't distinguish between 55 pounds and lower. a lot of these drones are only a few pounds. so there needs to be more gradation. >> you think the potential for commercial application is understated at this point in. >> i do. and i think it's or regulated and the amateurs need to be regulated. drones over head, being run by amazon and google is much less a threat than random people walking out into courtyards and

flying around new york city. >> present company excluded. >> i'm only doing it in open fields. far away from people and build. >> you lost one in the ocean? >> yeah i did. >> it's gone? >> it started smoking and i got it out. i didn't let it pollute the ocean. but i did lose it from all -- >> but the very least you were in an expansive body of water. >> near an open area without people and things nearby. >> let's get a check on the markets. the s&p 500 is able to hold up despite relative i disappointing data this morning. nasdaq lifted about a third of a percent large by on the back of apple's 1% rise. the dow mostly this week has led lower by oil. and today others are leading it lower by 4 points. shares of dream works are

rallying after morgan stanley upgraded to overweight. in the meantime shares of deere slipping after the fiscal forecast fell short of estimates. however think did report a profit in the fourth quarter. but shares of deere down 1 and some change percent. bad weather wreaking havoc on the east coast meanwhile. weather channel's keith carson is here to tell us just how bad things are. we don't have snow yet but we might get it soon, right? >> it's not far away. look at this rain/snow line, it couldn't be in a o worse position. take a look at this. new york city on the outskirts. looking at that mix coming in. the rain/snow line trying to

drag east of 95 and we do think it will as the afternoon goes on. snowfall totals. pretty mig numbbig numbers. the jackpot will be in massachusetts, maine and new hampshire. new york city again a strong gradient here. as you get over long island we're thinking maybe only an inch or so there. but get away from the marine influence and now you are into the 3-5 and not far away from 5-8 inches of accumulation. most of that falls this afternoon and into this evening. down to d.c., the precipitation gradient there as well. 1-3 inches of snow. 3-5 northwest. basically nothing south and east. and boston massachusetts looking at 1-3. outside the 495 belt there is as much as 12-18 inches in parts of

massachusetts and new hampshire. so we're going to track this as that rain/snow line continues to move to the southeast. through this afternoon we think roads will deteriorate with that. we'll try to get this thing out of here later tonight. 8:00 p.m. here. and then by late tonight, midnight or so we start to only see the snow in maine, new hampshire and vermont. so we'll get this out of here in time for thanksgiving. the thought is if you can hold off until tomorrow morning to for thanksgiving, that would be the best way do it. >> not everybody can but that would be the best advice. thanks a lot. when we come back twitter cfo accidentally tweeted and now we have a pretty good idea. think justin bieber. plus this man knows more about the global economy than almost anyone on the planet.

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>> buying justin bieber backed shots. first, do you think this was intentional or not? >> absolutely not. i think this is indicative of the fact that twitter is still incredibly confusing to use. the fact that the cfo can't actually use the product properly tells us something. and this is something we've heard time and again from twitter and from twitter's users from the lack of new users is it is a difficult from you can't to use. and when the cfo is sending a message to someone privately and it shows up publicly think this is as an opportunity to change the product. >> do away with dming or what? >> we see this time and again. twitter is such a simple service but such a difficult service and

this is an example. this is an example of the company having a service that, you know, you don't see those kind of things happening on facebook. you don't see them happening on other services. do you see an ins instagram fail? no because it's impossible. and it speaks volumes to what the company needs to do fix this. >> we've been drawing to comparison to facebook and how facebook has made it difficult to have this type of fail on the network now they have separated out messenger. do you think anything like that is possible with twitter? >> i think they can. the fact is they need to make really big decisions about product stuff. we've talked about this before. they are afraid to bring in new products to move things around. to make big changes and this is an example where maybe they should try to do that. and we really want direct messages to be part of the platform. let's segment it off or make it

impossible to share those on the site. >> in my experience a company in twitter's position would be look at multiple acquisitions in advertising it ce intechnology. >> i think shots is really interesting because it is a huge teen market and everyone is going after that market. they have always been looking at things. another company called storehouse they have been looking at. these are all looking for users, not necessarily engineers. do o any of you use shots? >> no. >> but i don't think we're necessarily their demographic if we could say that. and nonetheless there is reports twitter has been in talks with this company. do you think that would be the case if we were to report they were in talks with any company or do you think shots would be a

value add. >> i think shots user would be a value. it's essentially a selfie service. take pictures and share them. to build these is not that difficult. what you are looking for is the user. and justin bieber is behind it. there are millions and millions of teens literally on there just searching for photos of him and his friends and so on. that would be what twitter would be acquiring. i think it's the same thing they went after when they purchased vine. vine is a huge audience with teens and younger dem grarvogrd. i watch vine videos and perplexed but they get millions of interactions. >> we talked too vick stone earlier this we're. co-founder of twitter and he spoke about the biggest challenge facing the company. >> i think really is thinking long-term. when a company goes public you

tend to fall into that habit of thinking quarterly. and you really got to remind yourself that you are building a company of eternal value and you want to think decades in advance, not quarterly. >> so is this the age old being public long-term/short-term conundrum? >> it is. you have the investors that want action right away and want returns and yet you have the product which is, you know, trying to become a company that lasts for 10, 20, 30, 40 years. and those things don't necessarily sync up. and we're seeing this that now. it is a company where once again with the product people are afraid to make decisions because they are afraid it will push users away, turn away investors and so on. but at the same time if they want to be a viable company that is still around in 20 years they have to do some changes. >> so why aren't they shipping more product?

i understand the long-term thinking. but maybe think more short-term like what are we going to put out this quarter? >> up until now since day one the reason they haven't shipped more product and haven't made more chaj changes is there have always been problems with personnel, infighting and running this and that the other. and it seems that's finally kind of quelled a little bit. so this is the opportunity for dick costolo the ceo to say here are the changes we're going to make and prove that he can actually pull it off. >> finally br you go nick, your latest piece looks at the moral issues in silicon valley. walk us through that? >> i wrote a piece how thankful i am at thanksgiving for all the wonderful things for family and friend and son and also some of

the things the tech companies have given us. uber and free al mail and all these things that we've to deal with in the past that aren't great experiences. but what i notice is i don't think they are actually that grateful for us. companies doing things that aren't ethical. and we've seen wit uber. and google and facebook doing tests on users and all these different things. and i noted that i think we're at a point where either the companies have to kind of grow up and start acting more ethically or we're going to see regulation happen. >> i see a real parallel to sports. i mean you will do as much as you think you are allowed to until you get slapped on the wrist. >> it is interesting because when you look at the sports demographic you have these people that as long as they are making money. as long as they are winning

everyone looks away and you see the same exact thing with the tech companies. and, you know, the difference with silicon valley compared to sports and other things is the valley says we're trying to make the who rorld a better place. and are they? and if that is the case, then they need to start acting that way. >> it is different there. nick have a great thanksgiving. >> thank you. >> when we come back it's been a rough year for amazon but the stock has rallied over the past month. will the gains continue in 2015? opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in.

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we are just days from black friday but amazon is calling it deals week. while shoppers may find low prices what is in store for amazon investors this time of year? >> so kayla, here is what we

got. probably no company more associated with online shopping than amazon. are those sales going translate for investors? maybe not. specifically they are looking at the 30 trading days leading up to cyber monday. line shop holiday extravaganza after thanksgiving. they found on average amazon shares are valid about 5% ahead of but loses steam after cyber monday. that underperforms the broader s&p 500. that is up an average of 2.5 percent. what's more on the last five occasions where amazon shares rallied into cyber monday, each time they failed to keep pace with the overall market afterwards. and they actually lost value in three of those five occurrences. so these are just a few of the

many data points that traders look at when evaluating a possible buy/sell decision. maybe one of the reasons why some are a little more neutral on amazon stock, especially a during the holiday season. and this is a 17% run on the stock. some traders think it might be a more neutral play in the upcoming weeks. >> depends when you get. in but for now thanks dom. when we come back, this man probably knows more about europe and the economy than anybody in the planet. jim o'niell next on "squawk alley."

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markets in europe closing moments ago. >> the big news out of europe is that the vice president of the european central bank has given very clear indication from leadership they might start qe sovereign purchases first quarter next year. the german dax has now closed it's tenth straight session of gains.

it hasn't don't that for 18 months. so the german dax is well. up ten straight sessions. and germany was able to sell debt at the lowest yield ever. what he also said today is important. he said if they do start sovereign qe they will buy according to the capital key. that is basically the fixed contribution each company makes in making up the capital of the ecb. if they start, 18% buying on german bunds. 14% on treasuries. and 7% on italian government debt. as far as the individual corporate moves, oil services are down. oil moving lower. these guys in ord s norwegian r

down. the other news political coming up is that the president of the european commission, john paul junker has finally unveiled his investment fund. they will try and leverage that through the private sector. it is being described as the pea shooter. one of the reasons is the volume and size of the what they are trying. the banks in europe have shrunk portfolios and lending by about 1 and a half trillion dollars over the years. however importantly what it might do is political it looks like the politicians are acting. and therefore it frees up the dubs on the ecb to argue for

solemn qe. >> thank you simon. we're getting breaking news. the numbers on the latest treasury auction. and for that we'll go to rick santelli. >> well early auction. holiday week. 29 million seven years just it the the street. the yield 1.96 the issue market was bid at 195 and a half offered at 195. the biggest part of the grate is how far it prices to move it. that is a mark off a half basis point tail. all the rest is good. 2.63 on dned b ed bdid to cover. even though it's tight. and the indirects best since

august 11. and the directs on the outside with 12.8. i give it a c plus. and definitely not a bad auction. but in the litmus test of two solid a and a plus auctions in the form of two and five, the weakest of the bunch. >> not even a gentlemen c for that matter. thank you rick. when we come back a couple months ago a top netflix exec jumped ship to yahoo and now he's being sued. and 7 dollars can buy you lunch and if you are lucky, a hotel room. more in a moment. my name's louis, and i quit smoking with chantix. i had tried to do it in the past. i hadn't been successful. quitting smoking this time was different because

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we go live to vienna on the latest. and we've got o all your energy trades. and the busiest travel day of the year with hundreds of flights canceled already. we check in to find out how much worse it can get? and chef bouloud straight ahead on the halftime report. >> allegedly receiving kickbacks

from vendors. now the allegations of have implications for yahoo as well. after leaving netflix he joined yahoo as chief information. and alleged he took kickbacks of 12 to 15% the monthly fees netflix paid to vendors. adding up to roughly half a million dollars. having these fees paid to a consulting company he controlled. that's not all. believes he received benefits from other netflix contractors, including stock and/or gift cards. netflix is asking for the ill gotten gains and damages and harm inflicted as a result of his actions. what does netflix say about all this? they say he was a trusted senior level employee. with authority to enter into

appropriate contracts and approve appropriate invoices. netflix and yahoo both decline to comment. he and his representatives have not responded to request to comment. i would imagine serious conversations happening at yahoo today. >> to say the at least julia, an interesting story there. thanks. the man who knows a thing or two about europe is of course jim o'niell. the former chairman of the goldman sachs asset management. joining us from london. good to see you. >> nice to see you. >> we talked about european markets earlier on in the show. the big news we're getting heavy hints about sovereign bond buying that could come next year. germany, france, italy on the table. what does this program look like to you? and how effective can it be? >> well i guess there are two things i would react to with

that. first of all as is sometimes is case, these guys leak all their discussions. and so when they actually come up with a package it is never that positively or negatively surprising. so there is some danger to that. the second thing is whether the germans are really on board or not is obviously at this moment key, given people have been talking about this for weeks. sounds good in principle in terms of trying to deal with some of the challenges facing the euro zone. but like to see if the germans are really fully on board if my stance. >> germany has dissented to some of these plans in the past. so we won't know until be beactually know. ultimately the borrowing costs are going down across the board. is that ultimate lay good thing that germany can get behind. >> it tells you the market

believes it is going to happen with isomerisome rising probabi. assuming germany backs it and if the only part of the world that were doing it it would be gre marginally great. but japan has been doing more aggressive versions of the same things which aren't really helping the japanese economy other than through the weakening yen. i guess this will result in weakening the euro more for a while. but how can the euro and the yen both decline that either can gain? and of course in the background we've got washington at some level i would think saying, you know, what, it's not like the

1980s or 1909s where you devalue your by a into borrow growth from us. so in that sense i'm also more intrigued because i think it makes more sense in the stuff announced out of brussels about fiscal policy and leveraged infrastructure spending. that strikes me as something a bit new and more lasting benefit to help some countries get out of the considerable challenges they still face. >> we're sensing skepticism about the efficacy but from a legal standpoint, can they do this? or would this be wrapped up in a bunch of legal challenges? >> there's been virtually no initiative to deal with any version of qe so far in europe that hasn't been challenged in some level on germany. and this is of course the most extreme. i'm tag it almost as the given that you get opposition in germany and it might involve

legality too, which is amongst the reasons i'm a bit skeptical. >> in the meantime we are already starting to see effects in terms of u.s. multinationals with currency head winds. hp reporting last night and getting a the big head wind from currencies. how can a company hedge against this uncertainty given why the euro and yen can go? >> on one level it is no different than it's ever been from the 35 years i've been looking at all this. about the one thing you know is guaranteed is currencies go up or down. and it happened with the dollar against the deutsche mark before the euro even existed and of course happened many times already with the euro. so international companies face it all the time and should have a corporate structure how they deal with these things. it's not like it's new. that said, link to what i previously stated.

at some point of dollar strength and where u.s. companies might start to complain, i think washington will pay attention. for the u.s. to solve its own big picture challenges. right now the u.s. is a strong place relative to europe and japan but at some point u.s. is going to say hey guys if the only consequence is to weaken your currency, we're not going to let you do it anymore. and that will happen at some point. >> the strength of the u.s. is relative with contracting growth in japan and europe, rate cuts in the offing in china. but do you think the u.s. is still a safe place to invest? or do you think the rally here is over. >> safe, that is an interesting phrase to use to describe investments. no it's not safe. never was. never will be. nowhere is safe when it comes to

investing. remember everybody tries to kid themselves that gold was safe two years ago. look what's happened there. my perspective i get influenced by valuation. the u.s. is clearly nowhere near as attractive as it was relative to elsewhere. and link to that it's hard to find a person on the planet that doesn't believe the u.s. is doing better than europe and japan. i think one has to be a little careful. if i were running a big investment business, which luckily these days i'm not, i would be a bit careful. in that context it is very interesting to me as we come to the end of the year that was of course predicted by most as a major blow for emerging markets that many of these places, china included are actually already outperforming the u.s. >> always the skeptic but jim your insights are always so valuable. we appreciate it.

>> i really do think october 15th offers so many clues about the treasury market. not the least of which i do believe is 214 yield is good qualifiable guesstimate of where it will be end of the year. why is it important? they love short charts in the treasuries. 80 basis points on the year down. and most of the street hasn't had it right. bank of china has done pretty well. anyone with massive holdings. when you are short the capitulation that you buy your short position back. hence that 186 interday low on the 15th. think about what happened next. when you think about the best sell of the year, that was the best sell of the year. by far the best sell of the year. so what happens if you were lucky enough to sell that. and a lot of people did because

186 interday low, closed at 2414. then what happened next is important. two weeks of sessions, not days. 22 and 24 sessions respectively depending which crow look at where we didn't do anything because they held their shorts. so the easy bet is again we're going to' a capitulation trade in slow motion bringing it back to probably the most volume important bet swapping rate of the year and that was at settlement on the 15th. when it comes to gdp and all the data let's put nit perspective. housings wasn't what you expected but when you think about home sales you have to back to may 2008 to find a 500,000 plus seasonally adjusted rate. all the way back eight years to find million. context is important. and all those looking at gdp. today when we had 28 or 21,000 jump in initial jobless claims, the mantra was you have to wait.

and look at the four week moving average. what i did is i looked at all the gdps after we had two negative quarters. which means 21 quarters starting on q three to the present. 2.3. not bad but certainly i don't think we're going to get another minus 2.1 to make the next two quarters make up the ground. and last but not least, 150 basis points spread in bunds explains a lot. it shows us there is more going on than relative value. that is the economic horsepower differential. back to you. >> all right rick. thanks so much. when we come back with a ton of flight cancellations already. many could be stranded this holiday season.

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>> we have really get customers on hotel tonight. we make >> whose your target audience with this? the person who gets stranded traveling? the person who goes shopping and doesn't want to make it home or

the person whose just sick of their family. >> all of the above i think. the target for this was the people going shopping, a lot of deals are around shopping areas. new york city all the way to the mall of america to san francisco and union square. so people that were going to be into a city to do shop category now spend the night and turn it into a stay-cation. >> i assume you expect people sign up for the first time to hotel tonight in order to get this deal. how much of that have you seen already in the past few hours or days that people have starting to get wind of this. >> it been a big success and we wanted to thank all our customers for what's within a great year of growth. we also wanted to spread the word how with 7 dollars, hotel tonight we started with same day

only, tonight only deals. and now you can book up a week ahead of time. all these rooms that would otherwise go empty, you can do now a week ahead. >> thanks. sam shank from hotel tonight. >> jimmy fallon and justin timberlake at it again for apple. find out when we come back.

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jimmy fallon and justin timberlake back at it for apple. that was one of two new ads.

>> definitely anger at some of the hard core gamers at least in terms of what they are saying on reddit. >> they don't have a sense of humor? come on. >> i think they definitely had to have used hand models. >> and a good week for fallon. >> yes. >> good thanksgiving to you both. and to you. we'll head to melissa lake who's got the half. welcome to the halftime report. the starting lineup. steve weiss, josh brown, jon najarian, and steve grasslo. stocking stuffer trades. people buy a lot of gifts at amazon and apple during the holiday season. are t