a technical basis for 2015. >> the sector and the stock. >> and the stock. >> all right. >> you've got nine more guesses. >> at least. tech, health care, utility -- can utilities have a breakout? i'll stop guessing. over to you guys. >> thanks a lot. "fast money" starts right now. live in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. steve grasso, dan nathan, and guy adami. an excuse to sell. while most are focusing on the route in oil and retail stocks today, there's major selling going on across a variety of sectors. twitter, gopro, tesla taking a hit today. any buying opportunities in some of these hard hit names? price action in today's session, very interesting. >> twitter was 6.5%. given the move, the downside already. yeah, you name a couple of names. i'll name one i think is an opportunity, and that's facebook. a big rally late last week. gave up the ghost a little bit

today. but i think it gave up the ghost on the back of everything. i don't think it was the lead. it was -- it got caught. let's put it that way. i think facebook the next quarter's going to be fantastic. i think some people are trying to -- trying to dig themselves out from the last quarter. now they're going to spend money over the next couple of years. i think facebook is the one known right here. >> it was interesting to see what was sold off today, karen. take a look at semiconductors, banks. banks got hit hard. >> everything sold off. i think, you know, you had obviously the oil news, which may be friday there wasn't enough trading to really take that into account. then you also had weak german, you know -- >> manufacturing. >> manufacturing. you had the china weak numbers. across the board in everything. and you had a pretty good november. so maybe there was some profit taking. but, you know, this kind of day is just off, nowhere to hide. >> you look at what led today,

it was utilities, it was energy. you had the bounceback in energy. but you see utilities are definitely -- >> only in energy the commodity, not if you look at the osx. that was -- >> you take a look at the xle and it did bounce off the lows. and if you take a look at the price action in a schlumberger. off new 52-week lows. they finished the day in the red. >> could have been worse. >> yeah. >> i guess my point is if you're buying utilities. if your utilities are leading, that's a defensive play. so to your earlier statement, china, germany, manufacturing data was not impressive. here was a little bit better than what people with the survey was. but i use this as an idea of the energy rally is not going to last. for me, i would stay with those reverse trades. you're buying the airlines. i wouldn't be a seller here. but that's the knee jerk reaction is to sell everything. you had sellers in airline stocks. sellers in retail names. so across the board.

are you going to be a buyer in oil names? and in solar names going forward. and i don't think it's going to last that long. >> you know, we're talking about single stocks and really some pretty dramatic price action on individual level. over the last 30 days, realizing a 1% move. we've been lulled to sleep a little bit here about the grand what are bond yields telling us right here? they're telling us they're worried about growth. and i think it's at some point you'll start to think, people going away from the supply issue as far as oil's concerned. and that's why, i think, in some degree you're talking about a high valuation names. we've seen this before this year in a couple different occasions where people are not going to want to take the sort of risk they have been. they've been willing to do in a search for a yield in this sort of environment. >> what happens with one month left in the trading year?

at this point? because we are seeing, you make a good point. in terms of the high-value names. the names with the most profits this year. people took profits. losers, people didn't want anything to do with them either. >> exxon was green all day, despite the move in oil. and i think what happened there is people finally pulled the rip cord and the rigs and those places and went to names they think the dividend is secure and maybe they can find some safety. i happen to agree with what dan's saying. the s&p's been impervious to that. i think rates go lower. i think crude oil is trying to tell you something. i don't think it's a supply thing, i think that's part of it, the dollar rallying is part of it. most of it is a demand thing. >> if you go with safety. it's the exxon, chevron, the schlumberger. wll. that's a name that's down 35% year-to-date.

a name you're going to get a pop out of. but unless you believe oil is going higher from here, considerably higher from here, you want to be selling this not buying it. >> our next guest says this is no flash crash. it did seem like the selloff down 6% and a quick recovery. what did you make of that move? >> i think it was two things. i think it was first, you know, there's stock that's done very well this year. coming into the weekend, you know, a lot of gains held by everybody who has owned it all year. and we had retail sales that showed up late sunday night, early monday morning suggesting that sales might have been down 10%, 11%, from 2013. and i think it was an opportunity for people to say, you know, this might be it for apple, for tech for the year. >> i just got back from taiwan this week, and we're going to have a huge december, and right now for apple, and a lot of

indications march will be better than expected, as well. >> in terms of the next data points, what are the next data points? apple is not like other retailers that will release monthly sales or we'll get some sort of data point for black friday weekend. what's the next we're looking for? >> well, the next real data point is not going to be until apple reports, which won't be until the third week of january. near term, i think what people are watching, people like myself are watching. for availability. one of the critical things to watch right now with the iphone, can you get it? you know, one of the key things that's going on right now, apple cannot make enough iphone 6s and 6 pluses to meet global demand. if you can go into a store, not just in north america, but anywhere else in the world where it's launched and widely available, there's a lot of inventory, well, that's a bad sign for demand. the fact is, it's hard to get. and closer to christmas, that's going to continue, not just in north america, but, you know, throughout asia and wherever the phone is launched. it'll be an indication that demand is strong and iphone

units will exceed expectations. >> isn't it safe to say that the stock, you know, was trading at an all-time high of $700 billion in market cap. discounting what you're saying here and we know demand will be very good for a couple of quarters here for the new iphone launch. everyone talks about how cheap the stock is. when you think of it as a price to sales multiple, it's getting up to four. we had a lot of talk about a trillion dollar market cap in the last few weeks here alone. i thought it was a bit complacent. if you can't lay out to me how this company can grow sales over the time period you think it's going to $1 trillion in market cap, you have a peak situation here because you also have a scenario where margins are down 5% since fiscal 2012. you guys expect them to be flat or lower over the next few years. >> you brought up a few points. i think the main one, i think there are still at least two periods of outperformance. december being one, and you're right, at $115, $120, a bit of

that is discounted in the stock. right now, for example, the street is modelling down apple to decline 20%. if it's only down 10%, that's going to exceed expectations, and that might justify a little more for the stock. you also mentioned margins. margins actually have a probability of being up this quarter because about half of the volume right now, i understand, is iphone 6 plus. that's a higher asp and a higher margin product. we actually could see margins increase near term. once the iphone starts to slow down, the question is, what's next? and i think -- but i think we're going to bump into that question until we get into the second quarter. and then we'll say, okay, where is the peak? is the peak behind us? or is there still growth? i think your point is a valid one. i think we're a good four or five months away from an answer for it. >> thanks for your time, appreciate it. >> you bet. >> guy adami, mentioned facebook. apple -- >> i don't know. i think dan brings up great

points. it's hard, people get emotional about apple. to me, the question is simple, does the eco system insulate them? today i read that google chrome is taking over in schools. i mean, at a certain point, these products are becoming commoditized, right? it's a question of if they're eco system insulates that. i'm not sure it does. to answer your question, no, i don't think so. traded two times normal volume, had a big reversal. give it a couple of days. >> just to push back on the eco system, look how many people had the choice to have a bigger phone with samsung. now that apple has it, everyone is rushing for the upgrade. now once they create that iwatch. people don't want to have multiple objects here. they don't want to have the phone and the watch and, believe me, they'll trip over themselves to buy the iwatch, as well. that 5c becomes your kids phone and you end up the 6 or 6 plus.

the six will be for united states and you'll see that upgrade. >> you're positive on apple? >> still long. >> you think the iwatch will be -- because nobody wants many devices. >> nobody wants many devices right now, and as soon as apple comes out with the iwatch, people will make excuses to want that, as well. popping today as oil has the best day in two years. any other energy names worth buying? we've got a top oil analyst, that's next. plus karen finerman has a way to play the slide that is not in the energy sector. she'll reveal the trade coming up. and the details on changes to google glass next year. will it be enough to lure back the former fans? >> i went from being, i don't care what other people think because i love you to i don't love you so much and now i'm realizing that people are looking at you like you're not so cool.

how much money do you have in your pocket right now? i have $40, $21. could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement? i don't think so. well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time,

for twenty to thirty years, that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. ♪

a remote that lives more wi-fi in more places. a movie library you can take wherever you go. internet speeds that have gotten faster 13 times in 12 years. the innovators and inventors at comcast labs are creating more possibilities for more people every day. comcast nbcuniversal. bringing media and technology together for you. oil popping today after a massive move lower over the past few weeks. kate kelly with a look at why there could be much more pain ahead in the oil trade. kate? >> thanks so much, melissa. professional traders are having a rough go of it, not just due to recent big moves on the heel of oversupply in the u.s. and robust production levels, but also due to lack of confidence. commodity hedge funds in general were down last year by about

1.3% according to the new edge commodity trading index. and this year, they were up just about 2% and that was before the washout last week after opec's thanksgiving announcement. going into that thursday/friday route, a lot of traders were flat or slightly bearish. but a couple seemed to have been hit hard by recent events. managed some $600 million or so, disclosing over the weekend it would close after being down more than 4%. and at least one other fund that the commodity fund in london, which invests in a full suite of commodities, not just energy, but other things, as well, down more than 11% this month according to hedge fund reports. no indication they're closing, but it's been a tough year for them. even when returns are good, say traders, they face redemptions, as funds to funds sour on this space overall. the focus is on stocks but also fixed income, melissa, which people think might bring more reliable returns, believe it or not, and without the headache of

dealing with roll yields and other technical factors associated with commodities. >> right. in terms of the equity exposure, do you have any sense of how hedge funds are fairing there? >> it's hard to say. i looked at the impact of energy stocks on hedge funds a few weeks ago, that was before some of the most recent carnage. it was hurting the funds as far as we could see. discovery, global one example. citadel, they've done pretty well this year, but you could see pockets of weakness, for sure, with the energy equities. and you know when you look at the sector breakdown, that's a big strip of red against a lot of green and other spaces. >> i was looking at something today, it confounds me. the upper line is the curve at december 31st. >> right. >> and the lower line is the curve now. interestingly, they come from such very, very different places, but they're headed to almost nearly the same place. >> and are they converging around the $80 mark? >> yeah.

i can't quite tell from this, but that -- >> what does that tell you? >> couple thoughts on that. in terms of the bullish curve as you look out the curve right now, that makes a lot of sense to me. what i'm hearing from people is we may see a bottom in t.i. and t.i. and brent are going to converge in general. but we may see one in the first and second quarter. there'll be more oversupply and more production on the u.s. side before painfully low prices really force cuts. once we get through the supply issues with opec and the producers, two to three years from now, we may see higher prices for oil. a lot of people say that $80 mark is the magic point where you've got to get to that place in order to incentivize deep water drilling. you've got to have $80 for economics. 2017, 2018, it'll improve. looking at the other shape of the curve, a lot of people think we've hit a technical bottom now. just one example, on the fx side today called a bottom. saying we've reached a level we're not going to go too much

further. so, yeah, i think you're crystallizing some thinking in the market right now. >> thank you. >> thank you. well, shares of the integrated oil names like exxon and chevron popped today. halliburton, phillips 66 closing lower despite the biggest one-day gain since 2012. paul, great to have you with us. >> how you doing? >> you think there could be more pain ahead in terms of oil in that we're going to see a massive oversupply. when will that be remedied in terms of production cuts? >> in terms of the u.s. production adjusting itself downwards, we think it'll take around three months to six months relatively quickly. we think the u.s. growth in oil supply, oil production will be cut in half over the course of 2015. because of the spending cuts in the space. it's going to be a dramatic slowdown. >> we saw a fairly positive trade in terms of price action for a lot of the oil stocks across the board. even the shale names. even though they got decimated, they hit new 52-week lows.

a lot managed to pair their gains into the close. is it too early to say that we're past the worst of it? are we going to see a lot more pain ahead? >> that tells you that people are actually rotating into defense here. i think, obviously, the things are bouncing off a really tough tape. the way the market acted today doesn't suggest to me that people are piling back in. and both on the futures trip and on the way people are positioned, generally we have a lack of conviction here with people worried about this near term weakness that we see, but allowing for the fact that the long-term strip for futures of oil are considerably higher than where we were today. the brent strip is even higher, closer to $85 a barrel, which would say for the long-term investor, you'd be buying them here for the more quarterly oriented investor, you'd be avoiding them. >> if you look at break evens,

anywhere from 40 to 80, looks like it's $60, guys were trying to come up with retracement levels and whatnot. but to melissa's point of people buying this, going into year end. how many of these funds basically being carried out are willing to make a short bet with oil's dramatic fall from basically $110 down to these levels. so i can definitely see for the next month or so, a short rally. do you disagree with that? >> well, i think people are being flattened frankly literally. basically position has gone to neutral and books have been taken down. saying, just get out of dodge. and i know a lot of the best guys i cover are neutral here to end the year. it was a great year as of july. and now it's been an epic disaster. the massive selloff on friday, but significant rally based on

people having to short cover and then drive the whole group higher. i think that's, frankly, optimistic. >> what, paul, would be your short-term recommendation? you mentioned sort of the quarterly or the more sort of "fast money" trade. what would be the "fast money" trade at this point? what would be the longer term trade in oil? >> well, i think that people, i had a client today say he should buy refining because margins are so bad. i had another say he should short refining because margins are so bad. >> what did you tell them? >> basically we're long refining here. we like it. we think this story isn't over. even if we have u.s. production growth, we've got 600,000 barrels a day of growth by next year. it's still, you know, an enormous amount of ongoing growth. that also supports the mlp theme. although it's a little bit scary, obviously, to see the activity slowdown, you've seen the majority of the pain and the service and the drillers. we think the refiners will do absolutely fine. amongst the emps it's much more risky. if you really believe our

numbers and many others which show a monstrous oversupply of oil as we go into refining turn around season in q-1 next year. q-1 next year is the refiner's shutdown, again. that's when we have the maximum point of pain before u.s. production starts to slow. >> okay. paul, thank you. >> sure. >> all right. so long refiners, short emp? >> well, the space is obviously scary. but the first to pull the rip cord on the dividend, which leads you to believe that somebody's going to have to act in kind. you look at transocean rig. i think rigg is trading at 12 or 13-year lows right now at these levels. and the dividend given the move in the stock has grown to 14%. something clearly has to give there. maybe the trade is to wait for them to cut the dividend and then buy it on that news. maybe that will be your opportunity to buy the stock. >> here's one, you know, right or wrong, tesla, future is tied

to the price of oil right now. if you look at the price action today. today the stock closed at the lowest 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year and a half. one other time about a month and a half ago. this is a stock if it breaks technically here and oil continues to go lower. taking a longer term time horizon. especially if you think there's a mean reversion trade in oil at some point. i don't think it should be associated with the price of oil. i think at some point, it will be. >> would you say the same thing about solar? >> yeah, and we've talked about it with solar ceos and they'll say point-blank. >> but solar got nailed. >> there is. yeah. >> they have a vested interest in saying it has nothing to do. they can't get any dollars into the solar companies when oil is collapsing like this. if you chart, it's hard pressed to say there's no relationship. >>. >> karen's taking a look at a bank as a short play on oil. >> yeah, so, you know, i was trying to find different ways to find exposure. and the name i came across is

cfr, it is a well-run bank. however, the bear thesis to the trade is energy exposure. so a bull on the stock will say, they don't have that much energy exposure, only 13% of assets or so. but here's the thing, aside from just the specific energy exposure. housing, everything is going to have some correlation if we're in a horrible oil market. so when i look at this name, it's down a lot today, we are short, but it is -- it was expensive going into this. it was very high on a price to book, it was high on a p/e. although it does have a dividend. i think it is a way to have exposure in a way already had some premium built into it even though it didn't -- it didn't start to crack until three weeks ago. >> when did you go short and how long are you going to stay short, do you think? >> the staying short is probably

more of a price. one other name, though, as well, it's smaller, but a little more energy exposure, bokf. one last thing i forgot to add about colon frost. they closed on a acquisition in june in the permian basin. it's not a gigantic acquisition for them, but it gives you a sense of there being somewhat bullish on oil. i think embedded in there is a bearish play. coming up next, the numbers are in. and we've got an inside look at who came out on top in the battle of the box office this weekend. plus, the undercover breakout sector. it just might surprise you coming up. >> from record-breaking highs to major market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in-depth analysis and actionable advice. >> i think that's the way you continue to trade this. >> all to help you to prepare for the next trading day. >> i still say you own this stock into the holidays. >> this is "fast money." >> this is a company delivering on the top line.

>> have a market's question for the "fast money" traders? tweet us at cnbc fast money.

two weeks later. look, credit karma-- are you talking to websites again? this website says "free credit scores." oh, credit karma! yeah it's actually free. look, you don't have to put in your credit card information. whew! credit karma. really free credit scores. with the easy-to-use suite of tradintrading tools...tures... at optionsxpress by charles schwab. and we'll give you a one hundred fifty dollar amazon.com gift card when you open an account. if you're looking for a trade idea, start at the idea hub... where options and futures opportunities are organized by volatility, earnings, market activity and income strategies. then run your new idea through the trade and probability calculator to get a quick look at the possible upside and downside.

streaming charts give you the real-time quotes and customized views of the market that can help you make your final decision. and when you're ready to make it happen, walk limit helps you save time by searching for the most favorable price. find new ideas, analyze and execute your trades with just a few simple clicks, with optionsxpress. for a one hundred fifty dollar amazon.com gift card when you open an account, call 1-888-980-5745 today. optionsxpress by charles schwab. keeping an eye on shares of royal caribbean.

after s&p, dow jones indices says it'll add royal caribbean to the index. it'll replace the packaging company, royal caribbean up 3%, it's going to be part of the s&p 500, effective, close of business on thursday, december 4th. back over to you guys. >> thanks for that. dreamworks getting hard today, kicking off our top trades. this after the opening weekend for "penguins of madagascar" with $28.8 million. >> came in dramatically under expectations. had a blip of hope when you had hasbro looking into buying them. that's shortly faded after the stock got decimated just on the hopes of them buying them. they have to cut costs. they can't make animated films, that really impacts their top line. i would stay away from this one. >> at what point do you think, the stock decline is so great, they've got to do something.

>> ten point, you know, it's honing in on some support, technically in the name. but when you have a choice to go with the lionsgate, maybe someone's crosshairs. stick there rather than hoping for support to kick in. >> lionsgate made a 52-week high. probably longer than that. we've been talking about lgf for a long while. right here at current levels, and obviously that's what you have to look at. the beta might be in dwa. i think it's the better stock. i think the trade might be in dreamworks right here. >> would you rather? >> these guys, they have the other, whatever the catching fire thing and coming out again. a two-point thing. >> mocking jay. >> they seem to be on it. they have the trilogies and, you know, we've had michael burns on tell us about all the opportunities as far as apparel and everything afterward. >> well, they're also going to sell, in talks with dolly and wanda. >> right. there is the potential catalyst there.

i think about the dreamworks, the sort of two failed merger attempts. why are they desperate to sell? that would make me more on the would you rather. >> fun game. >> you like it? >> i love that game. >> i did it for you in honor of turkey day. up next, google glass isn't quite dead yet. it'll get a much needed refresh when it debuts. a new processor in 2015. our good friend was onset last week talking about how he wasn't such a big fan of nerdy looking eyewear anymore. >> i went from being, i don't care what other people think because i love you to, i don't love you so much. and now i'm realizing other people looking at you like you're not so cool. >> for anyone who is an early adapter, you said yourself during the break, you're a geek. no, seriously. and i think that's cool to not care. >> i worked it out, we're good. we're cool.

>> it's all kosher. >> lance is a stud. >> he was great. >> intel's had this tremendous run. we can talk about intel. i think more interesting of the two is google. this stock has not been traded well. you have these double bottoms, bounces nicely off that a few months ago. since that bounce up to 560, it's traded awful. i don't think you buy it here, i think you wait for a breakout above 550, or you wait for it to trade back and see if it gets back down to 505. at 533, to me, it's absolute no man's land. >> another example of a stock that sold off on apparently nothing and not related, obviously, to retail or to oil. >> yeah, but i would tell you this, that, you know, google has missed the earnings estimates on 4 out of the last 5 numbers. so when you think about it, obviously the sentiment has shifted a little bit. taken a lot of air out of it. the capital's moved into apple. i would make a point about intel. this is good news. we know that wearables is a very important spot for them.

we know they've had a very tough time in mobile. but, again, here's a stock that's trading at 16 times earnings, expected to grow 5% on 3 or 4% sales growth. i know they have a monster buyback and 2.5% dividend yield here. this is one with a tough time in q-1. a lot of money parked in this name, in microsoft, in apple and i don't think it's going to go that way in 2015. coming up, the breakout sector no one is talking about. plus, the one name within the space that you need to own into year end. and later, the black friday numbers are in. we've got the exclusive look at who came out on top and the battle of ebay versus amazon. stick around, "fast money's" back in two. ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪ ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪ ♪ look here, daddy, i'm never coming back... ♪ discover the new spirit of cadillac and

the best offers of the season. lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around $329 a month. you don't need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. because we do. we're exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. because boiling an egg...

isn't as simple as just boiling an egg. life takes energy. energy lives here.

welcome back to "fast money." here's what's coming up. one stealth winner that could power higher into year end. we'll tell you which sector to watch in a cyber battle royale. amazon taking on ebay. the early numbers for cyber monday and an exclusive interview. plus, gold stocks popping today, but one trader making a big bet that the rally won't last for long. it's a special options action, and that is coming up. but first, as we head into year end, many investors are busy

focusing on oil and retail ahead of the holidays. but one analyst has a sector that's set to breakout at the beginning of the year. chris, great to have you with us. what sector are you looking at? >> well, i think what's been interesting is amid all this excitement about oil, energy, apple, people seem to be forgetting the one sector that's been the most consistent trend in this market for the last three years. and it's health care. really impressive bounce off the october lows, made new highs this morning, and importantly, it's making new relative highs, as well. this is the s&p health care sector, relative to the s&p 500. you're getting excess return. we don't think the sector's getting much attention. and internally, the new high list is expanding. the number of health care stocks making a 52-week high is at the highest level in two years. we think that's bullish, not bearish, it's a sector we want to own into year end. >> and in terms of the stock within this sector, what would that be? >> well, i brought along lily with me. just really a big down trend

over the last decade that's been broken. we turned up last year, we're reaccelerating now. the next level on the radar 77 to 80. we think it gets there, fantastic charge. underowned and underloved. >> and within the sector, chris, i'm curious if you're seeing any signs of fatigue in terms of leaders that have led the sector to new highs. >> well, i think that is what is key here we're not saying that. the new high list is expanding. more health care stocks making 52-week high on friday than any point over the last 18 months. that's bullish, not bearish. you have 95% of the health care sector above the 50-day average. that's bullish, not bearish. and overbought conditions really don't get us worried this time of year. we think seasonality's too tough toll fight, as well. >> i know as a technician you don't care why stocks move, you just care they do move. but when you look at the midterm elections and see the new congress is setting up. to me looks like you're going to face head winds with health care. has that come into any of your calculus on this?

>> well, i think what's been curious here, you saw some of the hospital selloffs post election, names like tenet and life point. and then the match care names, the unhs and so forth have retained leadership post election. so broadly, we still think the picture is inclusive of many groups within the sector, health care equipment has been fantastic, as well. so it's a broad-based move. >> all right, chris, going to leave it there. thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> karen, you've been in this space. sort of the -- >> yes. in the health care and the biotech. i mean, you know, as i often talk about, we're too afraid to pick biotech names specifically. but we know that big pharma needs to own them. needs the growth. so we own the xbi and ibb. >> celgene and amgen. i think celgene today made an all-time high.

>> gilead, there's a new drug coming out. if you see it at $90, that is the 200-day moving average in the next few weeks, i think you buy that. especially if the news comes out, it's perceived as negative, that's the level, $90. >> you like staying long the sector that has led all year. >> yeah. but for me, i think you have headline risk. dramatic headline risk. it might not last very long while on these selloffs, but you should lock in profits in this space. i do believe you're going to face a lot of headline risk. >> all right. time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. freeport. >> i guess they're close to a settlement saying they overpaid for a freeport exploration. it's easy to say that now in retrospect. how do you trade the stock? it held 25 a couple years ago, held it again last year, it's imperative it does it again. feels like it did it again today, you have so much headline risk, this is going to be a

dangerous trade. >> microsoft up 2%. >> they're going to buy an e-mail management service, it's a mobile service, and, you know, i think it's gotten a lot of praise for how it connects from ios to, possibly microsoft e-mail servers if they exist out there in the corporate environment. this is the sort of acquisition for a company that has $90 billion in cash that they should be making. if i'm a microsoft holder, i do not want them to make a large transition. i'd much rather see them do small tuck-ins right here. i wouldn't touch microsoft right here in the year end just like intel. i'd look maybe something closer to below 45. >> carnival down 4%. >> el with, it's the name to own in the space. up 50% year-to-date. when you look at carnival, it's only bounced 30% off the recent lows in the stock market. rcl has definitely outperformed. but i think if oil stays here, continues lower, you see this one lift, as well. >> down 5%, karen. >> yeah, so obviously a retail name.

tough day for retail, also, anything related to china. but, i like it here. we didn't buy anything. but after chatting with my pal dan nathan at risk reversal, we're going to be looking tomorrow at a calendar. and so the feds getting you earning -- >> this whole time i had no idea who dan was. >> i know. who knew. >> and we've got a pop for tech savvy -- a humanoid robot whose job it is to sell. he'll deliver the caffeinated pitch in electronic stores. the robot not only has voice recognition capabilities, but can respond to human emotion, as well. won't be closing deals solo this holiday season, nestle has ordered 20 more robots to help push products. >> that's what r2d2 has been up to. still ahead -- >> you realize it's the end of civilization.

i know you don't care. robot, it's all good. >> what bad can come from that? >> cyber monday madness rages on. shopping madness. the latest cyber monday numbers as amazon and ebay battle it out. much more "fast" straight ahead. in this accident... because there was no accident. volvo's most advanced accident avoidance systems ever. the future of safety, from the company that has always brought you the future of safety. give the gift of volvo this season and we'll give you your first month's payment on us.

you're down with crestor. yes! when diet and exercise aren't enough, adding crestor lowers bad cholesterol up to 55%. crestor is not for people with liver disease, or women who are nursing, pregnant, or may become pregnant. tell your doctor all medicines you take.

call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness, feel unusually tired, have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine, or yellowing of skin or eyes. these could be signs of serious side effects. i'm down with crestor! make your move. ask your doctor about crestor. [time warp explosion] yes! where have you been? the future! and it looks bright. but we need to upgrade our network power protection. no problem we're working on a smart ups system from apc and cdw. gonna keep our network powered and highly available. did you just alter the space-time continuum? we gotta go back. we can't. it's broke. uh oh...

welcome back to "fast money." we want to bring you up to speed on what's happening with cypress semiconductor shares. they have reopened for trading in this past hour. you can see there, up 11% on heels of an announcement they're going to purchase, again, in an all-stock transaction shares. the deal is for about 1.6, 1.7 billion, again, an all-stock deal where cypress shareholders will pay 2.457 of their shares. this is a deal that both shareholders like because cypress up 11%. you turn around and look at the other side, again, with shares, they are up about 14%, 15% in the afterhours trade. both stocks up big in the aftermarket. so, again, it looks like, again, both sides like this particular deal. back over to you guys. >> thanks. to a deal in the semi space. is this a good deal? >> i don't know.

cypress semi has done nothing now for the last couple of years. i think that's why the stock is probably rallying. my sense is at a certain point, you've got to fade this. i don't think it means anythi anything -- i don't think you want to paint a broad brush with this. i think it's cypress specific. >> okay. an early look at cyber monday sales shows in line with comp scores estimates on track to grow about 16% from last year. as of 12:00 p.m. eastern time, ebay is seeing strong growth, up 23% with amazon up about 14% from last year's sales. that's according to channel adviser. joining us now in an exclusive interview, scott wingo. great to have you with us. >> happy cyber monday, melissa. >> happy cyber monday to you, as well, scott. does this mean that ebay is winning? >> you have to look at the whole holiday to really get a picture of that. what's really interesting this year is thanksgiving really kicked off strong. so we saw sales online up over 20% on thanksgiving, black friday, saturday and sunday. and then, it's actually tapered

a little bit coming into cyber monday. looks like consumers are pulling in their buying early. and then those earlier days, amazon was outpacing ebay. so we still have a lot to go here until we get toward late december, but it's definitely interesting to watch them battle it out. >> it's karen. let me ask you something. obviously the nature of black friday and cyber monday has changed retailing. how do you see this sort of plateauing? >> it's interesting. you kind of have to split the online and the offline. offline, i think, has kind of hurt themselves a little bit by moving things to thanksgiving. i've heard anecdotally the folks who hunt for the deal don't do it anymore. if they go out black friday, they're not finding the deals. i think that benefits online. you don't want to leave your family on thanksgiving to go out and go to walmart for four hours. folks are shopping more online. and i think that's what we're seeing, earlier deals, online is benefitting, and i think you guys probably saw the data that

nrf put out that black friday and thanksgiving were down 11%. and i think that really is evidence of that. >> what's your sense of how the brick and mortar retailers are doing. walmart was saying that thanksgiving was the second biggest online shopping day ever. target said that thanksgiving was the biggest. what sort of impact are you seeing, if any, on some of the traditional e-tailers. >> yeah, the omni channel guys are doing really well. will it be enough to offset the store, you know, decreases that were reported there? we do have this metric we call other third party marketplaces. these are for the marketplaces that sears and best buy and companies like walmart operate. we do measure that. they've done quite well. >> all right. scott, going to leave it there. thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> still a few hours left to cyber monday. happy cyber monday. >> love cyber -- it's one of my favorite days of the year. >> can we talk about it? >> sure. >> best buy, a 90-minute outage

on black friday followed by another one in the evening. >> yeah, it's terrible. but sort of if i could spin this from being -- to be a positive point. >> and how would that be? a decline -- >> 6% decline today was also because their online sales were bigger than their store sales. so they're still worried about that transition. but the fact they have sales is the benefit to them, right? so here's the problem, you have a mad rush to get to best buy's website. i'd rather have that than no one showing up. >> 90 minutes? >> it's an hour and a half. who cares? right. still an hour and a half. >> and a second one in the evening. >> all right. come on, you're going to be negative. always a reason to sell. there's been a reason to sell it for five years. now is a reason -- >> i think the bigger issue, there's a secular shift going on here. we're going to be moving from bricks and mortars. we know what amazon's margins look like. it's a competitive landscape here and they're going to be competing with each other for sales. i think we're in this perpetual cycle going online. and you have to think

differently about how you're valuing a lot of these retailers. if this is the trend over the next couple of years. i'm not a fan of them. i think in q-1 and q-2, you're going to see disappointing guidance from a lot of retailers from that shift like you said that best buy is trying to deal with here. >> how about a name like macy's, were omni channels working? >> i liked macy's sold off today, a huge run. we talked about it getting ahead of itself. they have done a great job integrating and they still, they know what shoppers want in that you can buy it online and pick it up in store, which i think is an important thing that customers have gravitated to that some onlines can't compete with. >> last quarter, amazon, you saw what happened to the stock. traded down to 280, huge buying opportunity, double bottoms, whole thing. i thought it went a lot higher. but i think to dan's point, it's starting to show its hand. amazon goes lower from here. it's at a year where it's basically in this lower highs,

lower lows situations. next quarter will be critical. i can't imagine their margins are going to be that impressive. >> gold snapping back today 3%. how one trader's playing the move. that's ahead on "fast." (trader vo) i search. i research. i dig. and dig some more. because, for me, the challenge of the search... is almost as exciting as the thrill of the find. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we rebuilt scottrade elite from the ground up - including a proprietary momentum indicator that makes researching sectors and industries even easier. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

in a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

you never jim jam shabriver flab dry ris.o is, bliss pounds hazy dray? drywall sh-boop leaver - murray. hey, big bog panorama corn salabaty? dude, squibble bits. mareyayzee. mormal snap jebby rolban jebby deetle flosh. [laughter] eh. now's the time to get in the loop. just look for our fall tv picks with xfinity on demand. huh. quickly find the season's hottest shows, huh. quickly find the season's hottest shows, with a handpicked collection all in one place. only from xfinity.

gold and gold miners saw a massive rally today. but one trader's betting the run could be short lived for one name in particular. dan's over at the smart board with the story. >> yeah, total options volume ran two times average daily and put out numbered calls 3 to 1. when you have one of the first strong up days, i wouldn't expect somebody to go in and look the other way immediately. especially for a stock that's so oversold. so today when the stock was about 1915, about 12,000 of the march 18 put spreads. and they sold the 16 and they paid 67 cents for it. that breaks even at 17.33. when you go over here and look at the chart, a five-year chart. look at it, the break even is well below the five-year lows. when you think about it, why would you do something that is maybe a disaster hedge against a long stock position? why would you limit the protection down at the $16 level? i don't know, but you never know what people are doing in the

options against the long stock positions. here's the other thing, maybe they sold that 16 put because the price of options has gotten jacked during the selloff over the last couple of weeks. i'll make one more point. if we think about commodity deflation, we think about the potential for credit events. and if you think about that and look at some of these levered miners, you think about the -- if you're looking to play a miner for a bounce, you may want to think about the gdx, the etf on the miners. and here's a chart over the last five years of newmont. they traded about the same price. look how correlated they are. there was a little outperformance on the single stock level. in the gdx. but down here, they basically traded one for one. and the only reason i'd mention this, newmont makes up about 8% of the gdx. if you're looking to actually get some, you know, less single stock risk and maybe some broad exposure to a bounce, i think you play gdx, that's a way to play from here. >> would you agree with dan? and what do you make of the gold move given the vote in switzerland?

>> yeah, obviously, a huge reversal today. i think that's very encouraging. you could put in a short-term bottom, no question. we had randy smallwood a couple weeks ago when the stock was trading 18, traded up, trading 21 and change. i like the space. i think there's tremendous opportunity in names like silver wheaton. >> the big take away, if you think gold goes higher, you play it with the miners. gold miners bounced 23% off the recent low in november against gold, the actual commodity only bouncing 7%. play the miners. >> options action happens every friday here on cnbc. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops.

so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say, a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ and start working on your next big idea. boy: once upon a time, there was a nice house that lived with a family. one day, it started to rain. the house tried to keep out all the water, but water got inside and ruined everybody's everythings. the house thought she let the family down.

they just didn't think it could happen. they told the house they would take better care of her... always. announcer: protect what matters. get flood insurance. location. location. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does.

it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. grasso? >> dominos pizza up 35% year-to-date. my family loves the product. i love the app. the stock never looks like it's turning back. dominos pizza. >> dan. >> i'm with my boy over here. >> that's guy. i think retail here. it's going to be a monster short trade in q-1. >> karen? >> i like adt, which sold off a little bit in the last few days. i don't think anything major has happened here. the earnings last month were fine. adt.

>> walgreen's, august was an awful month, but stabilized into the fall. it's catching a bit despite it was down a percent today. walgreen's. >> thanks for watching. see you back here again tomorrow at 5:00. meantime, "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always homework in summer and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you but educate you call me or of course, tweet me at jim cramer. at what point are oil prices too low, too low to keep helping