testimony, taped deposition from the late steve jobs. tuesday, december 2nd, 2014, and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. here are the three big stories that we're watching today. first up, tis the season to talk about the consumer. new this morning, we have early numbers on cyber monday. ibm digital analytics reports online sales rose more than 8% compared the to last year. a year ago at this time, cyber sales jumped more than 20%. and a potentially related stories, the nation's automakers will be reporting november sales today. but all accounts, those numbers are expected to be strong. vehicle sales are forecast at an annualized selling pace at about 17 million. remember, any sales that go into auto sales may be taking away

from other spending that you would be doing another other retailers. as for the broader markets, oil continues to be the big driver. wti crude rallying more than 4% yesterday. that was its best one-session gain since august 2012. but prices are still down about 36% from the high set earlier this year in late june. take a look at oil prices this morning, you'll see right now, down by about 1.25% for wti. that's a decline 0686 cents for 68.14. andrew, over to you. >> thank you, becky. let's take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. stocks already on the move, japan's asuka pharmaceuticals, buying pharma for $17 a share in cash for about $3.5 billion. the price tag is roughly 13% premium to yesterday's closing price. also, cypress semi conductor is buying flash memory productmaker expansion in an all-stock deal worth about $1.6 billion. the combined company will keep

the cypress name. each shareholder will get of that entity about 50% of the new company. a mixed quarter for rvmaker ford industries beating the street, but earnings falling short. motorized rv sales rising 25% from the same quarter a year ago. we'll talk to the ceo of winnebago at 8:40 eastern time. >> we took a "squawk box" trip on a winnebago. but we shall not digress. shares of apple have been soaring until yesterday. the ek the giants lost nearly $23 billion in stock value in one session. the cause comes with some analysts and investors which started speculating that apple could become the first company to reach a $1 trillion valuation. it was one of -- i don't know if anybody else ever hit 7 billion. tim cook has provided over a doubling in the market caps. and apple heads to trial today.

the company is defending itself against allegations that it abused a monopoly position in the digital music player markets. the class action lawsuit was brought by a group of people who bought ipods between 2006 and 2009. they argue that a software update made it so itunes music could only be played on ipods, which unfairly blocked competing makers. short deposition experts of videotaped before steve jobs died. peter says monopoly is the way to go. >> i don't understand. if they build something that is -- >> it's really good and it is a market monopoly -- >> in this instance -- identify read the e-mails, but nonetheless, they're making a great business. >> but buying the tunes you can only play them on your ipod or your --

>> yeah. that's the business. if you're going to buy it on itunes, you can only play it on your ipod. it's a closed system. that's what it always was. >> there's a point where a closed system is good and then there's the point that it irritates people. >> they're doing it again with some of the our big tech companies. if they can make a decent -- you know, develop the technology. develop some technology and then you can do it. >> yeah. >> it's never going to happen, though, over there. let's talk about takata. it is reportedly preparing to comply with the u.s. order to sxan a recall of air bags nationwide. that's according to japan's uk news service. u.s. regulators ordered the move last week. they faced a deadline of today to comply. ta cat ta supplies about one-fifth of the world's air bags. the ntsb says design flaws led to a parked boeing 787 last year.

investigators say the battery should not have been certified by the faa. parked is the operative word there. deal with that. get off the plane. leave. >> and you can do it. you're on the ground. >> exactly. >> want to take a look at the markets this morning. yesterday we did see a bit of a dip. this morning, though, futures are indicated higher. dow futures up about 28 points, nasdaq up by about 8.5 points. in europe, you'll see at this point mixed markets. germany, slightly weaker. france slightly stronger. the ftse up about 1% in london. in asia overnight, gains across the board. the hang seng was up by 1.25%. the nikkei was up by just under 0.5%. oil prices, as we mentioned, are weaker this morning. they're down by about 1.5%. that's a decline of just over $1

to $67.97. wti falling back below $68 just in the last few minutes. take a look at what's been happening with the ten-year note. at this point, it will be sitting just under 2.25% at 2.227.%. joe, this is a question we still have on that. where is it headed next? >> where? >> i'm surprised to see it that low. >> the oil or the euro? >> well, i can say -- the yield on the ten-year -- >> and the ten-year. i was shocked yesterday when i got back and it was below 2.2%. >> yeah. >> we have low inflation and a rebournding growth in this country. hopefully that will engender growth abroad. maybe multiples can stay where they are. >> but good news is good news, right? >> good news is good news. it used to be we needed oil to

rebound because we were worried about global fears. now we're convinced that it's supply. we even sent brian sullivan to the bakken where it was minus 15 degrees. you know, he had a hat on and i said your most distinguishing feature is that. he took it off and he got, you're right, i love my ears. he's 6'6", you know? tell him you don't like his ears. >> yeah, go ahead. let's take a look at the dollar and check out where the euro stands today. right now, sitting at 1.2438. the dollar is up across the board. >> i won't be concerned until it's like 75 cents. >> ready to go to europe. >> take a look at what's been happening with the dollar/yen, sitting right now at 118. gold prices, down by almost $20 this morning, sitting right at $1,198.70 an ounce. the nasdaq and the russell 2000 suffering their biggest

decline since mid october. joining us right now with more on the markets is steven freedman, head of investment strategy at ubs. and on the economy, jim oh skull van, the chief economist at high frequency economics. when we say we're looking at the worst drops for some of these indexes in a while, we're looking at the declines. what happens next? i figure we had this sharp rebound since mid october. now you really have to earn your way higher. and i really mean earn in the sense that we have to have fundamentals, earnings growth fundamentals delivered. our view is that you will see that from the context of growth, relatively positive on the macro and on the earnings side. but it's not the type of 10% rally that you saw in october and november. >> do you think stocks have gotten ahead of themselves at this point?

>> apart from the day-to-day volatility, i think there's still room for stocks to grind higher over the next year. but i think you're talking about gains on the order of earnings growth of something on the order of 7% to 8% from this point on. >> so let's talk a little bit about that, jim. what we're facing with the economy right now, what we're facing with oil prices, is this a goldie locks economy? >> certainly on the growth side, the numbers continue to look pretty good. there's been a step up in growth over the past couple of quarters. we generally have a the% trend in gdp. lower oil prices are only going to help that. the numbers on growth continue to look good. on the inflation side, the headline numbers are going to be very, very weak because of the drop in gasoline. meanwhile, the core numbers are pretty tame. for now, yes, the basic story is solid growth and inflation. >> what gives with the numbers we got from the nrf about the black friday holiday shopping and now this morning with the cyber monday retail sales?

if we're looking at everything in the consumer's favor, why are they giving us numbers that sound like things are falling off a cliff? >> certainly the national retail federation number is a small survey taken once a year with a different group of people. there's no consistency in this survey at all. >> so, in other words, you think this survey just stinks? >> i think that's the bottom line. there is no way certainly for the holiday shopping season as a whole that we're going to get an outright decline. income growth, wage income up 4.5% year over year. conference is at a recovery high. the back drop in consumer spending is clearly pointing to a gain in holiday sales this year. i would argue at least 4%. >> i was surprised by these ipm numbers. that's taking a look at online sales. up 8% versus up 20% last year. >> even up 8% is a decent number. those numbers, as they get bigger, they'll get harder to get bigger numbers. if you look at the shopping season as a whole at the end of the day and the retail sales

numbers have been growing about 4% year over year, it's not a perfect indicator, either. but this morning, on tuesday morning, of course, we get the weekly sales source indexes, the red book, and i would be very surprised if they were negative year over year. >> we had a retail analyst who pointed out all of these ads from the car company, get you to spend money on a great car, it may take away from the money that they would otherwise be spending at the malls. >> i think these things go up and down together. when consumers are feeling better, you see growth in auto sales and auto sales together. they're positively correlated. today, we're going to get probably a decent auto sales number for november. so in general, consumer spending may not be trending, but there's no way it's declining. >> why were the dow transports down? was that just a knee jerk reaction to higher oil prices yesterday? by higher, of course, i mean relatively speaking? >> i think you have a bit of that correlation. it's clearly one of the inputs

in that product process. i don't think that tells you anything about the long-term prospects. but on the day, that's the type of impact you can see. >> you like the small cap stocks a little better than the big cap stocks. why is that? >> it's based on their lower exposure to foreign demand. it's a more pure play on the u.s. expansion and the u.s. is the leader in terms of growth dynamics in our view. you also have less of the pressure coming from the stronger dollar if you're investing in small cap stocks. returning expectations can be higher than for the large cap complex. >> what else do you like? >> generally speaking, we like the post cyclical parts of the market. cap ex plays in technology and industrials. talking about the consumer, i think we're pretty much on the same page in terms of expecting that the consumer behavior will start catching up with the fundamentals, which are good in terms of income growth, in terms of the labor market condition. so we do think consumer discretionary is one place to look at right now.

>> okay. steve, jim, thank you both for coming in today. and we have a troubling story for you today in corporate america. the fbi is now warning businesses that hackers have used malicious software to launch a destructive cyber attack in the united states. this coming after a big breach at sony pictures just last week. it's notable because this would be the first major attack wave against a firm on u.s. soil. before now, attacks have been launched in asia and the middle east. what's happening here is the virus -- it's not really a virus. the attack effectively is aimed at destroying the disk drives. so effectively, it goes in at the root of the disk drive and overwrites everything. >> and you won't be getting it back after that? >> you may not be getting it back. so, if you get into a bank or a place where there are records -- many people don't present stuff any more. >> i do.

>> if things like this actually happen in a meaningful way, it becomes a big, big, big problem, so this is news to watch. anyway, in the meantime and when we come back, a showdown setting up in washington. we are dag away from another possible shutdown. if lawmakers can't come to an agreement on spending bills. we have john harwood to talk about it next. don't miss "squawk box" tomorrow we will be there in d.c. with a huge lineup of ceos from the business round table. among the highlights, exxon mobil, caterpillar, blackstone, blackrock and honey well. it all starts at 6:00 a.m. eastern time.

you're looking at the tree which will be lighted tomorrow. check that out then. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. steve carson joins us from the weather channel. he has today's national forecast. i'm wondering what we should expect tomorrow when we do have that tree lighting. >> you know what? i think we're in good shape. by the way, i didn't realize we were on yet. i thought i was listening to the music in my break for entertainment. >> dancing to yourself, right? >> it was very cheery. today, a little messy in the northeast and the mid-atlantic. here is a live look at the radar. showing a little bit of snow. most of the snow is staying to

the west of 95. so it's a cold rain in d.c. philadelphia, sitting at 39. doesn't look like a big deal. but there's not a lot of moisture with this system. there are temperature profiles that give you a little freezing rain, maybe a little sleet through the early afternoon. all of that will shift in through parts of northeastern pennsylvania and upstate new york by later on tonight. it will be a mess in the mountains of new england and for the most part, snow and wintry precipitation. in through massachusetts, getting into most of new york state, at least your chance for sleet, a little bit of snow. it's cold rain down in portland. these are places that, for the most part, enjoy this kind of thing. good news, not only is tomorrow looking better, but overall, our pattern is changing here across the entire united states. november is a very cold month. pretty much everyone in central california. look at where the cold air mass is. up here in the united states, down here, we go through time, this cold air kind of gets

pushed, suppressed up into canada. and our mid range signals here saturday, sunday, look really, really warm. so most of the country looking to stay warmer than average in the next six days and then even out to 10 days, maybe out to 5. so a lot of people who trade natural gas looking at that mid range, it looks warm here coming out on. the only thing that may be cold at all may be northern new england. this is going to be a stark contrast for what we saw through most of november. there are no big storms to go along with that, either. in between that, there it is, that warm flow through some of the eastern seaboard. guys, every once in a while, i like to give smu good news. if you don't like the snow and the cold, i think you'll enjoy the pattern change we're seeing as we head into december. >> thank you, keith. this story makes my blood boil, joe. jean company 23 & me is launching in the uk today after

a regulatory hurdle here in the united states. the company, backed by google, makes a controversial dna kit that let's you see if you're at risk for certain disease. this company was -- in the u.s. i took this test. the fda was worried about false positives or false negative results and people then going and doing things about it. so they thought they would tell you you might have a disease and then you would go off and make all the wrong decisions. in the uk, they said you can see this stuff, you can make decisions on it, you can understand what it is and know that then you should see a doctor and get secretary opinions and third opinions, but at least they're allowing you to see the stuff. and i think that's a better -- it's bad when across the ocean they're less nanny state than -- because we think they have

exceeded our nanny state aspirations over there. but at times, they haven't. i do see -- i don't know which i'd rather have, a false nech or a false positive. >> i think a false positive. being told you have to -- and finding out you don't? >> except then you can go on and having something done that wasn't necessary to do that messes up. >> it's better than thinking hey, i'm clear, everything is fine and just ignoring it. >> they're both something to by very concerned about. the thing that struck me recently, the "new york times" piece on the women that had pollups that looked to be noncancerous and they did it for years after it was clear that you were basically stirring things up. there are physicals that executive ceos take that last days. they find so much sometimes that they go in and -- you know, if you had left it alone, probably nothing would have ever happened. and instead, you --

>> you should be allowed to do the physical, though. >> yeah, but you don't -- you know, this is not a doctor doing these tests. it's very sophisticated technology we're using here. for a public company that's not regulated to tell you the specifications of your geno type is not something everyone should be careful of. not everyone is going to be as cautious as you and get a secondary opinion. >> i've seen it, you have what you think this percent is and then it makes you -- >> although, i don't think i've got it down here. >> i've never looked up this information. >> i looked. >> start slow and find out who

your ancestors are and -- >> by the way, it will do that. it will create a family tree for you. that's amazing. >> but that's the other thing. i don't have time for that, either either. >> the technology is new and a lot of times, i can just tell you, that looking at the geno type and then the phenotype, one is your genes and the other is how it's expressed when it combines with the government. it's not a straight line to i have a predisposition for this so i'm going to get it or i don't have a predisposition to this so i'm not going to get it. so the information might not be that great. and i worry that people would misuse it, too. i'm going to have to go with the nanny state on this one. >> good for you. >> i'm sorry. now to washington where there is a man who -- there is a man who has never met a nanny state he doesn't like. anyway, another threat of a shutdown within days, john harwood says. i don't believe that, john. i think at this point, you know, president obama is a master

chess player and by doing the immigration as he did it, he's just like saying, watch these idiot republicans threaten another showdown. i'm going to take back the public sentiment that they gained in this most recent election by boxing them in another corner where they threaten a showdown. >> joe, i would respond to that question in a moment. but before i do that, i have a vision. >> you have a dream? >> that week-long physical, joe kernen with cameras, sweeps week. >> didn't someone just did a testicular -- >> yeah, on the "today" show. >> i don't know about -- >> the eyeballs would get on joe kernen like getting scrutinized for a week on camera, that would be unreal. >> don't you think we're getting a little too -- i don't know. actual probes on tv? i don't think people need to see that with either one of those. >> katie couric did a

colonoscopy. >> as an advocate, i do see illuminating the issues, john. can i get back to this, john? >> yes. >> we're not going to have a government showdown? what they would like is a way found most things, but leave something with immigration funding in that department leave that unsettled so they can mess around with that. >> here is the trading range. they're either going to extend funding for the entire government, except for homeland security, through the end of the fiscal year and do homeland security on a shorter leash through, say, march, or if they can't get the votes for that because no democrat will vote for it, the question is whether they can get 218 remembers. in pe don't, we are going to understand fun into next year. we are not going to have a government shutdown before

christmas. the odds of that are so tiny, it's not worth talking about. >> do you think harry reid, it was an oversight that he left some of the middle class stuff out or are people start to go die verge in the democratic party in the same way we sort of see in the republicans sort of faction sort of getting stronger? i mean, schumer, to me, that was staggering. >> i think there is some divergence. and when you look the a it from the standpoint of the people that were cutting that deal, dave camp is leaving. he wanted as a legacy item to end some of the ridiculous annual renewal thing that we do, make some of those extenders, as we call those tax breaks, r&d credit, make some of them permanent. harry reid is leaving the senate majority leader's job for at

least two years. and increasingly, they got themselves into territory that the obama administration and liberals didn't like. so the administration scuttled the deal. and i think that also is going to revert to the least common denominator in washington which is that you can't do something big, so do something small. that's extending the tax insurance. that's what will get them out of town. >> yeah. you would think that the republicans, knowing that they're going to be in charge of both chambers, that they wouldn't want to do anything long-term now because it has a -- >> that's why they were cutting a deal that was from the obama administration point of view not friendly and that's why the obama administration scuttled it. but on your underlying point,

yes, there are a lot of democrats who are getting to the point where they recognize that the way president obama is moving forward toward his priorities may not be good for them politically. they just got hammered in the election. and they're looking to their futures. he's not going to be on the ballot again. they are. so there is a divergence. we're certainly going to see that when hillary clinton, assuming she steps out and begins a campaign for president, these going to separate herself in that you've had targeted ways, as well. >> she's had kind of an eye-raising drop in the polls in the last six months or so. it's been kind of weird to watch, john. and more and more people are saying the inevitable -- people don't want to hear things that are inevitable, i don't think. maybe this is just the backing and filling, maybe that's what we're seeing where it was

inevitable and then you say, wait a minute, is it inevitable? and then it becomes inevitable again. >> you're right, inevitable is not a good message. and the more publicity she gets for things like $300,000 speeches at colleges, that isn't anything that contributes in a positive way to her campaign. >> and all the -- you know, the world falling apart and people pointing out things, and then you've got jeb bush, who i've always thought from watching him, i always thought he was going to make the decision to do it. but you never know with people, families, how that can change, obviously. but these are the salad days for him before you announce. that's when everyone loves you. >> did you see the interview with jerry seide at the "wall street journal"? i read about it. it sounded like he -- >> sorry, go ahead, becky. >> it doesn't get any better

than this. >> it just sounds like it's not a sure thing that he's going to run. it sounds like he still has to figure out what the impact is going to be on his family. >> i'm in a different place than joe. joe has always expected him to run. i've expected him not to run. if he does run, it will be good news for the republican party. but that interview with jerry underscored just how difficult this decision is. what jeb bush said is to be able to run and win the presidency, you have to run in a way that says, yeah, i can move the primary. you have to show a certain amount of abandon about the right wing of the republican party. and jeb bush, i think that of all the potential people who pose a challenge to the republican base, jeb bush is the one who could pull it off and get them to come along because of his record as governor of florida, the mantle that he brings from a family that's already had two presidents.

i think he could do it. buttite not going to be easy and he'd have to take an unreal amount of flack in the process. and he has to weigh, do i want it? and more -- i don't know, as importantly does my family want it and are they willing to give for it. >> i don't know who will be more aapint disappointed. coming up this morning, walmart breaking online records for cyber monday. we have details, right after this. plus, it is a stock picker's market. three ideas from a top money manager. first, as we head to break, take a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. today is being called giving tuesday. it's said to be the charity world's answer to black friday. small business saturday and cyber monday are all among these named date now and everything else these days. technology is playing a huge part. you've got the app that let's

you track giving when you point a smartphone at a a dollar. usa today compares it to a thermometer for measuring donations. >> point it at a dollar and what? you don't get it, either? >> point it at a dollar and it -- there you're giving charity. andrew. >> i don't know how it works. among the stories front and center -- >> rush? if you don't, who does? >> walmart says cyber monday was the biggest online shopping day in its history. customers viewed more than 1.5 billion pages on walmart.com between thanksgiving and cyber monday. also, russia dropping its $40 billion gas pipe line. the reason? falling energy prices. the pipeline was planned to run under the black sea to europe. the uk will reportedly let northern ireland set its own tax rates. this will help prime minister david cameron hold to to power.

mainland's 21% rate. that is much higher than the rate in ireland. the dow, s&p at record highs. from march 2000, 14 years. this is leading some to wonder if you can still make money betting on indexers and stock pickers. joining us now is bill smeade. do you call argue about market row factors or you just want to talk these three? >> in not our vision for the next five to ten years overall. >> we're very optimistic. we see the millennials as a huge potential market of pent up

demand. we like companies that get in the way of that demand. they're just having babies and buying houses. >> what percentage of that is positive and what percentage is negative, overall. >> well, we looked at it from strictly a united states population standpoint. about 15% of the population in the united states is the states that are big energy producers. 85% is -- >> so 85/15. 58 positive? >> we looked at the eight long he commute states of people that drive the farthest and the population is over 2.5 times the population of states that produce the energy. >> we'll take the 85. >> let's get to your stocks. home building is not really ever snapped back completely. >> it's been a depression. if you look at a per capita basis, 180 million people in

1960 and the deepest recession. >> in effect, it's near depression levels. i think people are drastically underestimating the power of a six-month-old screaming baby. >> why nvr? >> nvr has a stellar balance sheet, made money through the bit of despair. they're fought big landowners. they make their money by building the house. we think that manufacturing process is going to be where the money has made the value in the next ten years. >> let me ask you, somebody point out it may not be a stock picker's market. they've convinced people that this is the right way to go when they could put money in an index, pay next to nothing for it and make better money. >> i think jack voguel talked about this the other day. the s&p 500 indexes is a portfolio. and when it gets on a role for a while, it gets overweighted in

things that are more expensive. so it has to rebalance itself. >> so you think this is a stock picker's market because it's been an index market for the last several years? in that's right. it's been a risk on, risk off market where people poured money into etfs. to get at the index or a certain sector. main street might significantly outperform wall street in the next five to six years. you might have to figure out what businesses to own to do well. and it might be on more difficult stock market overall. 45% of the s&p 500 revenue is outside the united states. as china slows down, that might not be all that much fun. >> warren buffett just traded procter & gamble with long streams of emerging market and foreign revenue for a u.s. auto dealer. what could be a -- more of an understand occasion of a domestic move from foreign? >> he also tells people that

they should put their money in a vanguard stock index fund. >> no. everybody forgets that he wrote a pete piece in columbia business school called the super investor and he said look, the index was argued that you're rolling the dice and it's all rock and so forth. but 80% of the people that beat the index were all going to the same coin flipping school, you would want to find out what's going on. high margin of safety, long duration, they have a tendency to outperform. >> it's back to see 16, $17. >> right. >> the highs are up in the 50s. it's the place to be now? >> earnings are normalizing. then we have the philip morris effect going at the same time. the philip morris effect is philip morris is the best performing stock over the last 50 years on the stock exchange.

bank of america might be the new philip morris. let's say they earned $4.50 to $3. that's a dumb here or in seven, eight, nine years, if they are earning $3 and trading at $50 or $60 dollars, you've made a lot of money. the willingness to ride through for six, seven years with the bank of america raerchb be conscious of changing the hot spot at the moment, which the index, by the way, is more susceptible because all the big tech companies that go public now are immediately huge. right? they used to be small 30, 40 years ago. but now facebook is a huge company when it goes public. that could have a big effect.

>> ebay, we'll have to have you back to talk about that. we're out of time. thank you. >> that you can. how gold mavrn sacks is letting high net worth clients invest in uber. we will be in washington, d.c. with a huge lineup with ceos from a business round table. caterpillar, walmart, black stone, blackrock and honey well. it starts at 6:00 a.m. even time.

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welcome back to "squawk

box." goldman sachs allowing clients to invest in uber. uber is said to be looking at a valuation of more than $35 billion in just -- what was it, about six months ago? they raised money at an $18 billion valuation and people thought that was nuts. >> easy. don't say anything. >> don't want to jinx it? >> no. you don't want to be looking through your trash. >> the guys were a little aggressive about journalistic -- >> oh, oh. >> not worried. coming up, corporate america trying to understand millennials and capture that huge buying power. we're going to talk spending trends and if if it's true that more than 40% of drinking age millennials have never tasted a budweiser. how can they go through life? "squawk box" will be right back. daughter: do you and mom still have money with that broker?

dad: yeah, 20 something years now. thinking about what you want to do with your money? daughter: looking at options. what do you guys pay in fees? dad: i don't know exactly. daughter: if you're not happy do they have to pay you back? dad: it doesn't really work that way. daughter: you sure? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab.

once the best-selling beer in the u.s., budweiser losing its fizz with millennials. the king of beers launching an ad campaign to appeal to the millennial generation. 44% of millennials of drinking age have never sipped on a budweiser before. that's a sad little statistic of sorts. let me tell you about some other statistics this morning. how are millennials spending their money? is new report of bank of

america, 80% -- i think this is great news. you talk about the american dream being alive or not. 80% of millennials think they are the same or better off than their parents. while less than 40% have less than $5,000 in savings. they may not be taking key steps for their financial future. joining us more is the global corporate associate at bank of america. good morning. >> thank you for having me. >> if 80% think they're going to be better off than their parents which is great news in terms of optimism, but then half say they live paycheck to paycheck, have no cushion to fall on, and they're not making big dents in the payments. and only one in five have even started saving. >> it is a mixed bag.

we want to harness that optimism because that is encouraging. they see an improving economy but they need to learn skills. obviously we're trying to get those skills nuggets for millennials to learn how to save, to learn how to manage debt. >> do you think it's as much of a learning how to -- there's a view that post-financial crisis entire generation of people that saw that happen think that the stock market is now scary. you think that's true? >> i think this is more about skills and knowledge. now, it could be about more than

that. if you're 20 years old, 25 years old, you're thinking very short-term. when i was 25 -- >> what's the oldest millennial? >> 34. >> it says it right there. they're going to live forever. that's why they all smoke. they're immortal. >> they're more saving for a vacation than are saving for their future. >> that's not that much different. >> but we want to arm this generation so they're better prepared for the -- >> will bank of america be able to assist them in saving for the future in some way? >> i think it's providing information. this is a -- this is not a product-oriented effort. >> definitely not. i would not -- that's dirty to

even talk about that. no. >> this is about arming them with information to have better money habits and better skills. >> but on the issue of the stock market, we talk about this a lot. retail investors did not come back into the market in a meaningful way post-financial crisis. the way we have after previous crises. >> right. >> is that a forever change? or as this market continues to go up, people say i now missed that boat. i need to get on. >> i think where we want to see them get in the market is get into 401(k)s. i think that's the best mechanism for millennials to start saving for their future. >> and tax-deferred accumulation is everything to a portfolio. >> 70% of companies match your contributions. the simple fact of a match ought

to be enough to encourage. >> i remember when i first got out of college and my first job, i did not have any money to speak of and i was relative paycheck to paycheck. and so the issue of being able to save -- i remember you used to fill out the form and it would say do you want to put "x" in the 401(k). i was sitting there saying i should do this. i knew. >> i was deciding if i wanted to buy a diet coke or "new york times" every day. >> go with the diet coke. >> if your company's going to match 5%, that ought to encourage your participation. that's free money. >> it is free money. >> thank you for coming in this morning. it's an interesting report. go get it on your website. it's also in usa today. >> better money habits.com. >> excellent. >> thanks for having me. >> great to see you. coming up, mixed messages on the state of retail just a few days into the initial start of the shopping season.

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i'm just looking over the company bills.up? is that what we pay for internet? yup. dsl is about 90 bucks a month. that's funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. wow that's fast. personally, i prefer a slow internet. there is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. don't listen to the naysayer. switch to comcast business today and get 50 megabits per second for $89.95. comcast business. built for business.

online retail on the rise. we'll dig through the cyber numbers. and the oil slide continues and it could mean big trouble for governments who depend on revenue for political power. ian bremer points out the hot spots you should be watching. plus rise of the machine. hp details its plan to handle the looming data explosion as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business

worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. check out this advertisement made good. an agreement to serve pepsis in arby's and it is obligated to feature the soda in two television ads each year. this year arby's forgot. here's what the company did to make it up to pepsi. >> arby's has an agreement to feature their good friend pepsi in two commercials a year. well, arby's messed up and forgot about the second commercial, so here it is. pepsi. >> that ad was voiced by actor ving rhames. it finished with the tagline arby arby's, we have pepsi. i'm all in favor. >> i liked that commercial. let's tell you about other top stories this morning. we'll show you how auto sales

were last month. excuse me. and apple is headed to court today in california. it will defend itself over claims it abused a monopoly position in the digital music player market. and blackstone group is selling industrial real estate unit. the buyer is gic, singapore's wealth fund. >> definitely shouldn't abuse your monopoly position. if you have one, you should take care of it and nurture it and be responsible to your monopoly position and do not abuse your monopoly position. investors getting mixed messages to far about the holiday shopping season. nrf saying black friday was bad. cyber monday didn't bring in as much excitement as some had hoped. but that doesn't mean you should put all the retail stocks on the clearance rack. our dominic chu is here to tell us why there could be a silver lining to this sluggish start. we heard you can't just look at

face value. >> you can't. and a lot of traders look toward history as a guide where things are going to happen. we asked our partners at kensho, what about shopping or retail-type stocks that do well during the holiday season. we crunched the numbers, this is the screen we ran. we looked at the hundred components of the smz retail etf. that's the xrt. so that's our shopping mall, if you will. we looked at the 20 trading days between thanksgiving and christmas. that's roughly that holiday shopping season. and then we found -- or we were looking for stocks that were positive at least 80% of the time and had been in existence for seven years. here are some of the names we came up with. the number one, this stock has been positive 100% of the time. it's only been around, though, for the last seven years. holiday travelers looking for tickets online. orbitz worldwide.

this stock is up an average of about 24% each holiday season over the past seven years. a huge move there. >> then it drops again after that? >> orbitz has been on a nice -- a decent trajectory since it went public back into 2007. but it does kind of fall off afterwards and whatnot. but here's the thing. there are 11 other stocks that have gone up by 80%. foot locker, four out of each five years, it's up. amazon, staples, autozone. these stocks tend to do well. thee 12 stocks out of 100 tend to do well during the holiday season. as many portfolio managers look what to do with their money for the last month of the year with oftentimes they'll look towards historical patterns. that's not is a i these things are going to happen, but they have a track record in the past of doing well. >> how many of those stocks then

drop off drastically come january? >> some of them do drop off. there are seasonal aspects to account for. the whole idea of the santa claus rally. there's also this january effect. maybe some people say it has some meaning. others don't. that's not the idea you can buy some stocks in december and then sell them off in january. >> what does up mean? >> up means anything -- well, these guys -- >> half a percent? >> yes, it does. but for these 12, a lot of them have been up at least 3% to 4% which is a decent run for 20 trading days. amazon on that list you saw, they're all up between 4% and 6% during the holiday shopping season. decent move for some of them. again, these are numbers we're looking at, we're trying to crunch. this is not an indication these stocks are always going to go up. they just have had a history of doing so over the course of the past decade. so if the trend continues, some traders say they may have places

to put -- >> this is more for trade. this is a short-term trade. >> that's right. thanksgiving changes everything. 20 trading days afterward, it's about a month. where do these end up? that's generally where they do. that's ten years of data. it's something some traders are looking at. >> you're right. because it's always on a thursday. christmas seems like it's different. >> next year is the same because i put in my vacation request. >> you snake. futures pointing up higher this morning after december got off to a negative start. joining us now with more on the markets and the global implications of falling crude prices is joe quinlan and samir smanic. and to both of you, i know

there's seasonal factors that dom was just talking about, but can we do anything right now, joe, without first talking about oil and crude? and why it happened and what the implications are for having it down below $70. >> well, joe, the oil price movement down has caused a lot of angst. it's inflationary to me. to me it's laying the basis for a decent 2015 when we have further growth coming. >> what in terms of how you rank important factors, where does it rank and what are the others? i guess europe matters and bond prices probably matter to you and interest rates. but how do you rank what's important for how you determine what to do? >> well, i would put the fed's moves tapering, tightening, what dudley is talking about. kind of the fed speak is very important clue for what the

fed's doing. i would put european union second. the difference is i think pope francis calling them grandmotherly. having a putdown for a big eu economy. so european union is very important. they've got to do more with the ecb. they need to structural reform. that ranks second. third i put oil prices. oil prices falling here, that's going to be a tail wind for global growth. >> samir, where does u.s. growth fit into all of this? and i guess it's influenced by where oil prices are, but are we in a 3% world now in this country? gdp. >> i think we're getting pretty close. we've got a number out there for 2.8% for gdp next year. that's conservative. i think we're knacking on the door of three. any, you know, drop in oil price if it's sustained, that's going to be the biggest key is if oil stays down here.

we still think the u.s. economy benefits more than maybe gets hurt around the margins with shale plays. maybe rethinking some of their capital expenditure plan. >> are you allowed to say i still like the u.s., but because of oil prices dropping, it might go for theless developed countries. if you decided this is to be the place. >> the u.s. is definitely a part of that. so right now we still like the u.s. first. >> first? okay. >> issues in the euro area that they're working through. so i think the u.s. is still kind of that core of your portfolio. and if you want to start thinking about places outside the u.s. u.s., we'll take contrarian standpoint. we think if they keep on the

path and they are where the ecb is doing more instead of less and you've got japan once again trying to get their economy out of deflation, those are going to be two of the biggest waitings. and from our standpoint, both of those look attractive. if the central banks continue the path they're on, it could be an interesting story next year. >> joe, do you actually get down into the weeds for which sectors are going to do the best for 2015? >> we still like information technology. i think there's value in energy. i think industrials will do well when we start to see further firming of growth in the european union. i would go back to another number. $165 billion in capital inflows into the u.s. in september alone from overseas. it's going into the large cap multinationals. so the u.s. is a magnet for foreign capital. >> all right. sameer, you heard it.

i know you're international, but if home was the best place, i don't want you to get bogged down thinking you got to use your title and invest over in some frontier markets. there l you do that for me? >> i'll try my best. >> thank you. still to come this morning, hp's chief technology officer joins us on the company's plan to handle what they are calling the looming data explosion. then low oil prices could mean trouble for governments that rely on the revenue. we'll look at russia and iran. and at 7:40 eastern time, we have winners and losers from cyber monday. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. hey matt, what's up?

i'm just looking over the company bills. is that what we pay for internet? yup. dsl is about 90 bucks a month. that's funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. wow that's fast. personally, i prefer a slow internet. there is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. don't listen to the naysayer. switch to comcast business today and get 50 megabits per second for $89.95. comcast business. built for business.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. take a look at the futures right now, see how the market is setting itself up for this morning. the dow jones looks like it would open 31 points higher. s&p up two points, nasdaq up nine. hp is kicking off today. it's become one of the most attended conferences of the year featuring hundreds of topics

covering the i.t. industry. it's calling the machine. its new technology that rethinks the basics of computing. martin, it's great to have you here today. >> thank you for having me here, becky. >> martin, tell us what the machine is. it sounds a little ominous and scary. but what exactly is it? >> so the machine is about reinventing the foundations of computing for the first time in 60 years. we're all dealing with creating new data, we're storing more information, we're taking more pictures. we want to store our entire lives. the problem is the amount of energy that's required to store all that data and process all that day i did, we're kind of running out. and so the machine is about reinventing the architecture of computing. so you can process all that

data. we can store all that data, but do it in an energy envelope that we can tolerate in the industry. >> it makes sense to me when i think about my own life, how much stuff i store from music to pictures to videos. when you say rethinking the entire way the computers work, how do you do it? >> so basically computers for 60 years have been built around three basic components. the processer which just kind of does all the calculations on your data. there's a temporary storage area we call main memory. and then big storage where the stuff is stored permanently. what we're doing is collapsing those layers together so that the memory and the permanent storage all become one together. and when you do that, you change dramatically the consequences of the power that's needed to absorb the information and you change how easy you can make it easy to write the software so

you can get to all of your pictures, videos, home memories. that's what we mean when we're saying we're changing the architecture of computing. >> how is this like ibm's watson and how is it different? >> so, watson is a completely different concept. think of watson as a piece of software that tries to interpret your questions, your words as you speak. and the machine is really the reinvention of computing and a simple way to think about it is watson could be an app that runs on the machine the way angry birds runs on your phone today. >> i know ibm is doing watson -- using watson for a lot more commercial purposes these days. what would the machine be used for. is it going to be sold to corporations? is it going to be the beginning of how you build new computers and those are the computers

businesses and consumers buy down the road? what happens? >> so the beauty of the machine is it can go from the very small to the very large. we'd like to see the machine in the pocket of every individual but also in the largest of data centers. one of the demos here we're going to show is using it in your cable mode demes you use to get your internet service and tv service in your home. today what happens is the cable companies have no idea proactively that there's a problem on your line, where the line is, what's causing traffic issues or your tv goes down. they don't know anything that's going on until you call them and say hey, my service isn't working. what the machine allows us to do is put a machine in every cable modem in every home and be able to become more proactive and detect any issues before the customer even knows it's happening. i'll do you one better that you'll be able to internalize.

imagine having the entire netflix catalog on your cable modem in every home and not need to stream and consume all of that internet traffic that we do in the u.s. >> well, that sounds pretty great. how soon can you expect to see something like this? when you describe it like that, it sounds like it's the solution to net neutrality and all of these things people have been bickering back and forth about. >> so the machine a research project, and we're basically working on this and have given a target until the end of the decade to get all of the different technologies working together to deliver the machine as a whole. but the great thing about the machine is it's a collection of technologies and some of the individual components will be able to deliver much sooner than the end of the decade. so there'll be piece parts you'll see showing up as early as 2017. then we'll roll after that.

>> do any after your competitors have other ways of restructuring the architecture? >> so competitors are working in what i call a substitutional way. they're trying to keep the architecture of computing exactly the way it's been for the past 60 years. and they want to take out one piece and put another replacement technology in. we think that's the wrong way to approach the problem. that just makes things more complicated. we're trying to simplify this by collapsing those components as i said earlier. by doing that we're doing it differently than any competitor is contemplating. >> thank you for joining us today. gives us something to think about. we appreciate your time. all right. nice delay there. he did well there.

you did too. i thought right after the first question. then he finally caught up. coming up, many governments depend on oil revenue as a source of their political power. but with declining prices there is trouble brewing. we're going to have the flash points you should be watching. first, though, "gq" has named its 2014 pop star of the year. it's an unorthodox choice that some are calling just plain weird. i'll give you a hint. he is the new spokesperson for radioshack. that's next. she's still the one for you. and cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain,

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i maximize good stuff, like my potassium and phytosterols which may help lower cholesterol. new ensure active heart health supports your heart and body so you stay active and strong. ensure, take life in. welcome back to "squawk box." bill cosby has resigned from temple university's board of trustees. this comes after accusations he sexually assaulted many women through years. he has served as the face of school in ads and fund raising

campaigns. four years of college isn't enough for a majority of american students. that's according to a new report from complete college america. the report found most public universities, only 19% of students earned a bachelors degree in four years. the extra time is costing students and their parents a lot of money. on average nearly $23,000 for each extra year at a public four-year college. among the causes of the delays, inability to register for required courses, credits lost in transfer, and students who take too few credits per semester to finish in four years. it is slackers. did you finish in four years? >> of course. >> yes. i kind of feel like i'll pay for four years for our kids. beyond that, if you need a fifth year, you pay for it. >> high school was the best six years of my life. "gq" has named weird al yankovic as its pop star of the year for 2014. the singer's album which is called "mandatory fun" was his

first to reach number one on the billboard charts in his career. it was the first comedy album to top the charts since 1963. beavis and butthead had a good one in 1994. you're going to want to buy "gq." because a gold covered weird al is going to be featured in the december issue of "gq." he is also right now spearheading radioshack in their holiday commercials. this album, i guess, he does parodies on, i guess, probably this song but also "fancy" and "blurred lines." he does a parody of that called "word crimes," a song about bad grammar. but truly every dog has his day. >> good news was at least he was wearing gold spandex. it wasn't just body paint. >> he was always kind of a -- i

don't know if i'd say a joke, but he was never really mainstream really. >> you don't think he was mainstream during the michael jackson days? >> no. i was alive and he was not. >> he was mainstream to me. coming up, the sharp decline in oil prices could result in one of the biggest transfers. ian bremer is going to join us mex with more of all of that. we're back in a moment.

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welcome back, everybody. among our top stories this morning, walmart says that cyber monday was the biggest online day in its history. the retailer reports that customers viewed more than 1.5 billion pages on walmart.com between thanksgiving and cyber monday. of course viewing pages and purchasing not the same. but we'll get a chance to talk to walmart ceo doug mcmillion.

vladimir poout season dropping his gas pipeline. russia is dealing with the dramatic drop in energy prices. that pipeline was to run under the black sea to central europe. and if you're still a complete idiot and tempted to crack a bomb joke at an airport, just don't. a venezuelan doctor will pay a fine of nearly $90,000 for a joke he made that partly forced the evacuation of miami international airport. officers were askingm manuel alvarado a routine question before he boarded a flight to bogota. it depends how you pronounce bogota. in response he said he was carrying -- hey, i'm carrying c-4 explosives, guys. he corrected himself and said he was just joking and not carrying plastic explosives.

he misspoke. he meant to say have a nice day and said i'm carrying a plastic explosive. it prompted airline delays and brought out a police bomb squad. >> wow. getting back to oil this morning, quick check on where brent crude is standing at this moment. $71.68 is the price tag. at these levels, brent oil is now below the level needed to balance the budgets of these countries. joining us to talk about this, ian bremmer and michelle caruso-cabrera. ian, yesterday joe kernen aid it -- i made a comment and said could the geopolitical world get worse as a result of this given that these countries could effectively go bankrupt at some point. and we thought either -- >> pretty bad already. >> it's pretty bad already.

or how much worse could it get? i ask you. how much worse could it get? >> so in the middle east it's not going to get much worse. the reason for that is the countries all under pressure under consequence of the oil prices come down, have the money to spend domestically. they've got surpluses, oil savings in the bank. the saudis, the kuwaitis and the rest. but they're spending it internationally. oil prices stay down through 2015, 2016, the second order countries that have been getting this aid, they're going to get squeezed. but you're not going to see instability in the gulf states themselves. russia, on the other hand, is going to start to be under significant pressure. and, you know, this would be the right time putin was thinking about i want to compromise with the west, this would be a great time for him to do it. but he's not going to. and he's getting much angrier over sanctions which is going to

start eroding his approval ratings in 2015. this will turn him towards china faster, but it will also make him -- make the need for him to get more aggressive and come to some form of resolution that feels comfortable for him in 2015 a lot sooner. so i do think the geopolitics around russia are the ones that get tough. the final one would be iran. near term on iran, this is going to make -- it pushes them towards a deal. but as you saw, we're pretty far away from that right now. so i think what happens there is you start to see a little more instability in the country because they can't come to an agreement with the americans. >> for putin, ian, does it make him -- does it embolden him or does it clip his wings at this point? i could make a case both ways that he could get desperate or he could say, jeez, my economy is awful. the ruble's crashing. i could see how it might make him less inclined to have

adventures in the ukraine. >> both arguments can be made. i feel very strongly that the one he's going to take is to be emboldened simply because he's gone all in on an anti-u.s., must keep ukraine national engagement. this is what's behind all of his approval ratings. it's behind who he now is as a leader. backing down against the west and the west's threats of sanctions, the threats of isolation is something that i think is completely inconceivable for putin domestically. think it would erode a lot of his power. he's unfortunately all in with escalation and aggression vis-a-vis ukraine vis-a-vis nato. i think lower oil prices pushes him more in a corner. he feels he has a fight as a consequence. there really isn't an avenue for putin to back down. >> i think when americans are asking the question at least

financially, they're asking, okay, when's the breaking point. when do we see a sovereign crisis, et cetera. and they do have -- russia does have a couple of levers. they can let that currency weaken which they've done and you saw the move yesterday which was nearly unbelievable single-entry day move. every time they let that currency weaken, those dollars they get from oil just get them so many more rubles. the price of oil down for them only 7% in terms of rubles even though it's down 36% in terms of dollars. they've got breathing room when we try to figure out when will be the crisis point for russia, right? >> they're budget is ab suitly getting squeezed in 2015. putin's already said we're going to have to tighten our belts. we're not going to be able to spend the way we have in the past. the announcement came out and said this is a casualty of sanctions, the fact they've cut off that pipeline that was going to be built. europeans not happy about that.

but i mean, when i think about when putin really takes economic pain that has the potential to destabilize the country, i'm thinking about 2017 to the 2018 elections. the next years you have to pay attention to venezuela number one, nigeria number two. that's where they don't have much capacity. >> what happens in nigeria? >> they clearly have to -- they have to let the currency move, but it's going to squeeze them economically. and that means they're going to have to really cut back on their budget. that's going to be unpopular. it's going to make the -- >> ultimately when investors are thinking about nigeria, everything you said is already happening. there's already tremendous violence in the street, the place is falling apart. i hate to sound so unseemly, but

american investors haven't noticed and we're not talking about it much. venezuela, we talk about a lot more. nigeria not so much. >> both of these countries we don't talk about very much. my point is if you ask me right now where are the problems as a consequence of oil going down, the economies that are really going to get hit don't matter much. the one out there is russia and i think russia gets emboldened. it's going to make the sanctions more challenging. it's going to move russia towards china. that's world changing long-term. everything else is going to play out over a much longer period of time. >> do you think the key if you are an investor in emerging market debt right now one of the biggest questions is do you buy venezuela's march of 2015 bonds which have a tremendous yield and it's not that far away. god, it's so tempting to get that kind of return. ian, would you buy those here? do they have enough reserves?

>> i would i would. especially because i don't see oil prices staying quite this low. libya's coming off the market. potential for iran sanctions and i didn't care about the fact that the opec meeting didn't get anything. the only people going to move in pushing production back are the saudis and their gulf friends. they don't need an opec meeting to do that. that's a side show. march feels okay to me. i don't know if i'd go into october. >> what was the yield on that? 1 15%? >> i think it's 15% or 18%? anything related to high yield, there's not a lot of liquidity in those so the yields move tremendous amounts. >> quick before you go, you sent out a provocative tweet. this was around iran. you said you thought in the next ten years iran would end up being our friend. why do you think that? >> because the gulf states are going to matter less in terms of energy.

we have the production. meanwhile, iran is a country that has large population. it's quite globalized in the citizenry toward the world. diversified economy. you ask me long-term who the united states is likely to work with, especially as the efficacy starts eroding globally, it's going to be long-term. whether or not we get a deal on -- >> not with the same leadership though. >> no you have to get a change for sure. but he's right. the underlying population is deeply sympathetic to the americans. >> i don't see this leadership in place in iran in ten years. >> thank you for joining us this morning. >> my pleasure. >> michelle, thank you. when we come back this morning, cyber monday by the numbers. we'll look at the winners and losers in online shopping and the companies that are poised to benefit from the growth in retail. as we head to break, look at the futures. we're seeing some green arrows. dow up 47 points. s&p futures up by just over four points. this comes after declines for

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get every month free. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. facebook wants to play in the ad

business this holiday season a chance to deliver video ads to people offers better targeting and average of 1 billion videos are viewed on facebook every day. the cyber monday effect is in full swing this week. and while there is plenty of noise in the numbers, early data is showing that sales are surprisingly strong surpassing last year's figures in terms of what's expected to rank as the biggest online shopping day of the year. joining us to talk about the winners and losers is mark mahaney. there's been a lot of number weird numbers out there. sales online were only up about 8%. that's not what you've seen. >> no. i think the way to do it is you have to look at the five-day period from thanksgiving to cyber monday. kind of normalizes for a lot of things. if you look at that, it looks to us that online sales grew approximately 20% year over

year. so what's the so what from that? retail sales grow 3%, 4%. so you have a share shift from online to offline. >> so you think it's doing well, don't pay too much attention to the numbers that are lowballing these things. all in all it's an up year. which compares to what we saw last year too. >> what's happening is these dates are being stretched out to black friday is becoming black november. like what's happening are sales promotions are brought in earlier. same thing with cyber monday. amazon started a week earlier. so all the numbers being stretched out. look at it over the other period. mobile is now 50% is now most of the sales. what we can tell from the companies, amazon continues to

be outpacing. ebay looks like it's in line to slightly below online retail sales. it's a negative for ebay. >> why do you think that's the case with ebay? i think that's what's been happening for the last year. we have a pivot really in ebay's business over the past five years towards the consumer that helped them. now they've anniversaried a lot of those improvements. they've got structural challenges. so it's an issue when you don't gut your packages right away. they also don't sell a lot of in-season retail. >> that doesn't sound like a fixable problem even when the split comes, even when they have their own management focusing on their own issues. >> you have ebay going through a margin reset. both in the payments business or online retail business. even though the valuation is interesting, you steer clear for awhile. >> you don't think there's a big chance something amazing happens

on the paypal side. >> like an ak sigs? >> yes. still a two-year bet, right? i don't know if you can do it in a tax-efficient way. possibly could. there's one logical buyer out there. i think that's google. but the odds of that coming together is unlikely. >> you think it's google not -- people have talked about alibaba as a potential. >> not for the payments business, but market place, yes. that's also a tough bet. alibaba has those global ambition. i bet you when we're talking about cyber monday a year or two from now, we'll talk about alibaba. now they're not a presence yet. >> here in the united states? >> here in the united states. one way they will be part is an acquisition. >> if not ebay, who? meaning how do you get into the space in a meaningful way quickly? >> i think the stakes have risen more and more. i think it's much harder to do.

the journal has an article about how the economics of online retail are challenging. you've got buildup distribution centers. >> i heard somebody saying the catalog companies are good at this. no kidding. they've had distribution centers doing this for years. look at what's happened with online shopping, just my own behavior. i bought a lot over the last weekend. i'm trying to buy early because last year i got hosed with some of the holiday presents not showing up in time for christmas. are you potentially looking at sales that are going to be skewed in the early days than to the later days because people don't want to get hosed again? >> possibly. amazon came in light on the fourth quarter revenue.

stock has been underperforming since that point. it's off 20% on the year. so one of the reasons i think amazon is kind of vertically integrated with its more and more of logistics, the reason they're doing that is to control that customer experience. because most people are still going to delay to the end. >> does that mean the people who have been ordering at the last minute are likely to get hosed again and then the shareholders get hosed in turn? >> less likely this year. also there were some unusual negative weather patterns last year. we had a couple of major northeast snowstorms. who knows whether those happen again. >> but that's your top pick, amazon. >> amazon for 2015. i think we're leaving the investment cycle on amazon. i think there's a couple of reasons why margins can expand. you're anniversarying some events. this stock is not close to sale, but it's a price to sales

multiple. i think the risk reward is attractive. >> do you think the phones and other products that they've developed, they will stop doing that? >> i think they -- i think at least through the distribution center physical infrastructure investment cycle, they've been investing now for four and a half years. will they continue to do other devices? the fire phone was the device too far. they did really well with a couple of devices and failed with the phone. they cut their losses. i think we're starting to see a tapering of it. if we're right and nobody's expecting this, then margins should start to recover next year. >> and right now it's trading at about $327. your price target? >> about $420. we think trough valuation is about $270, $280. you're within 10% of that.

we're buyers here. >> thanks very much. great talking to you. >> thanks. coming up, we're going to look at stocks you should be watching ahead of the opening bell. plus celebrities fill in for injured u2 front man bono. i'm sorry. i hope he gets better. at an aids benefit concert. and don't miss "squawk box" tomorrow. we'll be in washington, d.c. with a huge lineup of ceos from the business round table. at&t, exxonmobil, caterpillar, walmart, blackstone, black rock, and honeywell. that all starts at 6:00 a.m. eastern.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. surprise visitors at a world aids day concert in new york's times square last night. bruce springsteen and coldplay's chris martin filling in for u2's bono. bono recovering in ireland after a cycling accident in new york last month. take a look at the stocks to watch this morning starting with

royal caribbean. going to be added to the s&p 500 after the close of business on thursday. it is replacing packaging products company beemus which is moving to the s&p mid-cap. memory chip maker. spansion is being acquired for 1.6 billion in stocks. chief executive officer and old longtime friend of the show t.j. rogers will run the combined company. and the news lift that cypress shares, upgraded the stock to out perform to sector perform on optimism about the benefits of that acquisition. when we come back this morning, the latest sales numbers from chrysler expected to hit the tape in moments. plus the fallout from the massive slide in the price of oil. will it spark a round of mna? and will a gas tax become

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crude resumes its downward trend. >> he hates these cans. stay away from the cans! >> is now the time to hike the federal gas tax? we'll debate that issue. ray rice speaks out. >> i take full responsibility for what i did. only thing i can hope for and wish for is a second chance. >> what's next for the old runner back? plus time to go rv shopping. >> so, when did you get the wheels? >> that there, that's an rv. don't you go falling in love with it, now. because we're taking it when we leave here next month. >> we're talking luxury life on the road. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

we're playing some willie. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. i'm not going to say i don't like the other music which i love. but it's nice to have -- i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky quick. the numbers are in. cyber monday sales are up by 5%. it was below estimates. consumers may have taken advantage of offers before and after thanksgiving. mobile shopping was up. sales remain flat at $133 for each transaction. the journal's lead story is something about discretionary spending being down or something because of -- did you see that?

>> getting squeezed with higher rents and health care and cost that go into it. their wages have been stagnant. that might explain in particular some of the change that has had rough time too. >> let's also tell you what's happening this morning. apple headed to court today in california to be defending itself over claims. it abused its monopoly decision. and among the expected testimony in the case, e-mails from apple cofounder steve jobs and a short deposition excerpt videotapes before he died. also the fbi is warning businesses that hackers have used militia attack. this comes after a big sony hack. this would be the first against a firm on u.s. soil trying to destroy hard drives which are very hard to then recover. also takata looking to comply to

expand a recall nationwide. takata supplies about a fifth of the world's air bags. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. things are looked good for the bulls at this point. all up. of course on the first trading day of the month yesterday, those markets were lower. this morning we are seeing green arrows. same story with oil with things turning around a bit from what we saw yesterday. yesterday you saw oil prices picking up. this morning they are down by about 1%. it's a decline to $68.34 for wti. also if you check out the markets in europe at this hour, they're in the green. although the dax is just pairly there. up by four and a half points. brent crude sinking over the

past 36 points. their survival now in doubt. meantime a number of hedge funds have shorted oil and are cashing in. joining us right now is greg zuckerman. author of "the fraccers." and attorney bernard clark. gentlemen, welcome to both of you. greg, why don't we start off with this? in terms of how long we see prices this low whab do you think? >> i think the saudis have launched a war against prices. a war against north dakota. there are lots of reasons they're not going to let up on this. they have signalled they'll have a meeting the next few months and there's more coming. >> who wins? >> if you're a smaller producer, you're financed through high

yield and there's a lot of those guys you're nervous right now. especially in places like texas where it can be done cheaply. >> so if you focus on something like that, what do you think is really happening? >> i think the market's going to adjust to the prices. but frankly i don't see it as a major crisis for the u.s. industry. because you're seeing these decrease in prices before. and there'll be losers but by and large most of the industry is going to succeed and do well. >> a lot of these guys were working on margin. there's been a wildcatting feel about this whole thing. maybe people extend eed themsels when they shouldn't have. >> there are a lot more of overly stretched without any cash flow coming out of the ground in production. most of those companies have

been able to turn that raw acreage into productive land. to the extent they have cash flow now they can meet their interest, they can weather through a downturn and probably even a 12-month downturn. there are going to be losers. but by and large, i don't see it as a major crisis. >> a few weeks ago we had harold hamm on the show. he said you're not going to see people shutting in production, but you will see it impact future production. he's one of the guys who are getting hurt by this. who else are among those list of people who might see a bit of pain over the foreseeable future? >> the key is some companies like continental have a range of plays around the country and even within places like the bakken. so they're going to focus just on their best producers. their other company is much smaller and has many more problems because they don't have options. they only have mediocre options. and they've been financing themselves through high yield, unfortunately.

they're going to be under a lot of pressure. the question is whether the big oil steps in and does acquisitions. i would argue they've been ambivalent when it comes to shale revolution. even companies like shell have been buying rather than selling the past few years. i think it's going to be awhile before they come in and scoop up the suddenly cheap assets. >> why has big oil been so skeptical, do you think? >> they haven't believed in this revolution from the beginning. they were off shore in asia and africa. it took guys like harold hamm to believe and make this revolution happen in the united states. everyone else didn't think it would happen. they've come back, people like exxon have become believers. they've found religion over the past few years. but i don't think it's the -- assets that are under pressure. companies that are just seeing stocks stumble now. >> what about mcclendon himself. he's in a difficult position,

isn't he? >> that said they floated debt that's going to soar annually. so question is whether they can do an ipo given tumbling oil prices. it'll be a challenge. if they can't he could have problems again. >> greg, who's going to file for bankruptcy? who should we be watching for? >> look for the high yield companies, stocks that have tumbled recently. i don't know if they're going to file for bankruptcy, but under all kinds of pressure. you can to down the list of those under pressure. they are having the cash flow you see from an eog that can get through this period. >> were you surprised by the decision with opec last week not to change production? >> no. they're just trying to maintain

market share. they put pressure on producers and the higher basins, cost basins. may have to cut back. discovery wells in the future. but by and large, our producers are going to continue to be producing the wells that are already drilled. if you're asking who the biggest losers are, i think it's going to be oil field service companies who are going to be the one who is are finding a lot less demand for their services because there's not that many wells to be drilled. they'll have to compete against one another. typically the way we've seen these play out over the last 30 years. the oil field services guys get hammered. now maybe the small mom and pop companies that don't have the long-term contracts in place to weather this storm. >> in other words, it's a good time to be negotiating some of the contracts with these guys. >> yeah. most of the them will have

long-term service contracts. to reduce the price to get out, they'll have to pay a penalty. it may make sense to pay an early termination penalty, renegotiate the contract and move forward with the lower prices. that's one thing a lot of people mistake, if the price is $65, it doesn't mean oil field service costs are going to stay at the high levels. they're going to come down. because the cost of drilling the wells is going to come down as well. >> thank you both for joining us today. >> good to be here. major automakers roll out sale data today. fiat chrysler is the first out of the gates. let's get to the numbers with phil lebeau. >> we told you that november was a strong month for the automakers. and chrysler right out of the gate shows us how strong. sales coming in, an increase of 20.1%. well above the edmunds.com estimate of 14.9%. and no surprise regarding what was driving chrysler sales

higher. jeep and ram trucks. jeep sales up 27% last month. ram trucks up 21%. chrysler out of the gate with better than expected numbers, an increase of 20.1%. do not be surprised if we see the pace of sales for the month come close to 17 million, perhaps even touch 17 million for the month of november. back to you. >> i told you that yesterday, phil. never mind. you don't have to say that. told you it was going to be suvs and trucks though. >> you did. you did. you are the swami. >> have they sold a -- you know, any priuses? are those still offered by toyota? >> joe, just for you i wrote an article on cnbc.com and i quoted you saying who are the people who got suckered into buying a prius. i have heard from a few people. yes, they're still making prius. >> i just like to say how ugly they are.

i know people are very conscientious and we should be conserving. i'm just kidding. i'm just stirring the pot. you know that. >> kwn. that's what you do. >> i'm not the one with four suvs and a winnebago. you get a mini van too? >> i'm trading it in. there's nothing wrong with a minivan. >> i got a new car. what's this about? a new minivan. >> by the way this is my name. no man name on it. japan's otsuka pharmaceuticals is buying avanir. added 13% premium to yesterday's closing price. been talking about cypress all morning, buying spansion. they will keep the cypress name and be run by t.j. rogers.

shareholders will hold about 50% of the new company. and a mixed quarter for rv maker thor. the sex jest rv in the world. wasn't that guy thor too? >> yes, he was. you're right. people named him. >> yeah. how do they know? i said that when it came out. there's millions, billions of people on this planet. >> it's not a scientific study. >> they do not know he's the sexiest. it's not true. it's crap. >> of all the surveys we did today, that's the one that bothers you. i'm bothered by the online retail numbers. >> bugs me when people think they know the sexiest man when there's so many men they haven't considered around the world. >> haven't even seen. >> earnings fell short. motorized rv sales rising 25% from the same quarter a year ago. we're going to talk to the ceo of rival winnebago at 8:40

eastern. randy potts. coming up next, suspended nfl running back ray rice sitting down for an exclusive interview with nbc's matt lauer. we're going to bring that to you after the break. plus a look at what's next for the form eer ravens running bac. plus with oil prices plunging, is now the time to raise the gas tax to fix our roads? all that plus jim cramer. he's going to get us ready for another big day on wall street. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. (vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

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i realized football was one thing. now i realize the amount of people we've affected, the amount of families we've affected, that, you know, domestic violence is a real issue in society. you know, we could take on one band night it just happened to be on video. we are truly sorry to the people that are really going through it. >> that obviously was ray rice

earlier this morning in his exclusive interview on nbc's "today" talking to matt lauer. again, obviously. joining us now to talk about what rice had to say plus a look at his future with the nfl is dave briggs of nbc sports. we've seen comebacks from a lot of different things, dave. i think about -- i don't know. who was the guy biting the lady's back? >> think about mike tyson. he's one of the most popular pop culture figures today. went to jail. but -- >> the video changes everything. >> changes everything. and we didn't like ray rice all that much to begin with. so, you know, we're obsessed with some of these -- >> speak for yourself. >> ravens fans may have. >> but rutgers fans. >> 28 years old next month. wasn't a great running back the last time we saw him. three yards per carry. >> he's digging a deep hole. >> check off all the boxes. nfl teams hate distractions.

are they going to sign a 28-year-old running back who doesn't know the offense who's going to bring massive pr headaches, distractions for every guy in the locker room? no way the jets win the super bowl before that happens. >> ray and his wife really feel like they've had a pretty good thing going and this messed things up big time. >> the interview? >> no. the situation. loses the job. doesn't have the income. they have a true vested interest in trying to get ray back on a team. >> and maybe they will next season. i just can't imagine this year. this year there's no way that happens. there's a couple of teams that need running backs, none of them have gone anywhere near it. the broncos, colts, saints need help. but next year maybe. >> any other time a character witness for a husband it would be good to have the wife as a character witness. but in a domestic case, people

immediately question, you know, like this is typical. she doesn't understand. she's not -- she can't be the character witness. >> and if you read the online reaction to this interview, which was an excellent interview by matt, they're crushing them both. neither of them have been helped by this interview in any way, shape, or form. in fact, more criticism is being heaped on her for defending him, for being the one that came out and apologized in the first place. he is not making out well in these interviews. no one's yet been helped. >> how about the nfl? >> the nfl has not been helped either. but i think more damage was done to the nfl by the judge in this appeal case who said, look, there was nothing hidden about this. ray rice was fully acknowledging what happened in that tape. whether they saw it or not. >> we all know the difference between hearing it and seeing it. >> i completely agree with that. >> any team thinking of picking him up let's say next year has

sponsors. are the sponsors -- do they have to then go to the sponsors saying we're thinking about doing this. how does that work? >> ultimately, everything is about business. this is the nfl. and if your sponsors don't want this a part of their product, no chance he has a place in this football team. look at what happened with adrian peterson. there were sponsors pulling out. he wasn't even on the football team. he wasn't even associated with the vikings and you had the radisson hotel chain pulling back. so, yo, with that kind of pr backlash comes bad business. no one needs that especially with the guy with apologies to our rutgers fan there, wasn't a great fan last time we saw him. he had an appeal today which is another big story this afternoon. will he get another shot? absolutely. he's still at the top of his game, still a pro bowler. >> if ray rice had the same future in terms of being

productive for a team -- >> he'd have a job. >> see, i think the half-life -- like, we love second chances and it's always a great story, the media jumps on it. >> sure. >> the half-life for domestic violence or domestic abuse especially on video, it may never -- >> if there was video of what adrian peterson did -- >> i think what adrian peterson did was worse. >> of course. he beat the crap out of a child. there's no video. and again ultimately it's about how productive this guy can be on the football field. he's still a tremendous pro bowl type player. >> in other words, this is not a black and white we're trying to change things. this is how good are you. >> look, the nfl is doing everything they can to change the perception of domestic abuse. they want to change the policy and be stricter. that's what this punishment was all about. the nfl is going as far as they

can. >> where is roger goodell landing in all of this? >> this is going to have to come out with the report, free report that comes out after the season. some say it doesn't matter what comes out of that. the judge said it didn't matter what came out because ray rice told them what happened. telling someone you hit a woman and then seeing him physically knock out that woman, stand over her like she's not even a human being, look unapologetic, and frankly inhumane, that's entirely different than telling someone, i hit her. >> would it be different if adrian peterson had video too? >> absolutely. it would ruin his career. i think there will still be more to say about this commissioner once the report comes out. that will not happen until after the super bowl. we acknowledge his job is

business, to keep the nfl a profitable product that grows around the world. he's doing just that. are these owners going to rally circle around him? probably. he's done a very good job. but there's also a capitol hill hearing going on today where they're bringing together all big four leagues to address domestic abuse. jay rockefeller, the democrat, calling that in the senate. this is what congress does. getting involved in things that aren't their business. they won't help the ultimately help at all. >> come back when we're talking about -- we can get back to just -- >> you want to talk sports? patriots/packers super bowl? >> was that another year? did the bengals beat the packers this year? >> and that was after andy dalton looked like he threw up on himself. then they rallied to win. >> i don't talk about them anymore. >> they look like they're going to the post season, joe. >> no, they're not. they might. but they'll lose. >> joe is no longer with it.

that's why. >> looking for another team. >> thank you, dave. when we come back, we'll talk more about crude's drop. stick around.

welcome back, everybody. southern california is bracing for its biggest rainstorm in a year. heavy rain is expected to hit drought stricken parts of the state today. that means a flood threat for many residents. officials were handing out

sandbags to many locations last night. the severe storms are expected to also pack high winds and pose a threat of mudslides. forecasters expect one to two inches of rain to coastal and valley areas and up to pfive inches in the foothills and mountains. up next, prices at the pump putting more money in the pocket of consumers. perfect time to talk about hiking the gas tax for people who love hiking taxes. we're going to talk about it. we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. house republicans are said to be nearing a vote on extending tax breaks that expired at the end of last year. however, the proposed bill only extends them through the end of this year. also chrysler reporting sales up 20.1%. results helped by strong sales of the jeep and ram truck brands. also we'll be getting sales numbers from ford and general motors in an hour. edmunds.com estimating that gm

will report an increase and ford expected to post decline. and takata is preparing to expand a recall of air bags nationwide. this is according to japan's nikkei news service. the tokyo based company faced a deadline of today to comply. takata supplied about 1/5 of the world's air bags. with prices at the pump plunging, there are new calls to hike the gas tax. advocates says there would be a minimum of pain and we could use the proceeds to fix america's ailing infrastructure. back in the spring there was a bipartisan proposal teed up by the senate and both business and labor leaders have been urging congress to do something. here to debate this is grover norquist, founder of americans for tax reform. and former pennsylvania governor

and cnbc contributor ed rendell. and i'll start with you, governor. just because i'm going to let you make the case. i figure i could do it too, being a sociopath, i could argue both sides of just about anything. but drivers do use roads and bridges. you can find some that need to be repaired. can you make the case that this is the way that it should be done? >> well, first of all, for the individual driver he'll actually save money. 12 cent increase in the federal gas tax would cost the average driver about $140, $150 a year. texas transportation institute estimates every driver loses about $800 a year sitting in traffic idling and expending gas, repairs to their cars caused by bad roads and bridges and the like. so that's number one. number two, conservatives always

like to talk about american exceptionalism. let's be clear about one thing. our infrastructure is not exceptional. 11 years ago we were ranked number one. this year we're ranked 16th simply because we've stopped investing. now, the states -- red states like wyoming, pennsylvania, virginia have passed gas tax increases. blue states have. but we cannot do what we need to do without the federal government. >> grover, how -- i'm just interested in just like you i wish there were a private sector solution to most things because there's accountability and i think just typically it's not the most efficient way to do things. but with things like infrastructure, how does the private sector or what motivation would the private sector have to fix bridges and roads? >> well, certainly tolling is a lot easier now with ez pass and so on.

major highways, tolled. but we don't even have to get to that. that would be an interesting reform. this is a bait and switch that the politicians play all the time. president obama spent $800 billion with a stimulus package which was supposed to pave all the highways. he was going to do all the shovel ready programs. the money went somewhere else. it didn't go into the roads. but it was sold that way. in wisconsin, they just passed a constitutional amendment. 80/20. they voted 80-20, no long can the politicians take the gas tax money and spend it on other stuff. for 12 years when the democrats ran that state, they were taking the money out of the roads and they put it into other thing bs. more than a billion dollars was taken out of roads. now with republican walker, he says we're not playing that anymore. the people said no more taking gas tax money and spending it on other than roads. then the other problem we have is we could fix this tomorrow, 25% of the cost of our highways

is the davis-bacon act. which was a law in the 1930s to keep african-americans out of work so they couldn't compete with white unionized guys up north. it remains a favorite of the unions. it keeps the costs of building highways and anything the federal government funds 25%, 30% above what it should. get rid of that law, you have plenty of money for paving roads and building highways. if the unions will let you. >> so, ed, governor, that -- you were in politics awhile. and you know that a lot of what grover says is probably true. >> actually, all of it. >> and, you know -- that $800 billion sounded great. look what happened. is it possible to write a law where you can definitely make sure that the money goes where it's directed to go? because i don't know if congress -- i don't know if that's even possible with the way these guys are able to get around things once, you know, the money is there.

even social security is not safe half the time. they tap it or do this financial hocus-pocus so it doesn't look like they're spending any money. is it possible to write a law where it just goes to highways? >> sure. and joe, it's very possible. in pennsylvania we have a gas tax and it goes into a fund and it is against the law to take a dime of that for anything other than bridges, roads, highways. you can write such a law. let me respond to the private sector thing. we need the private sector to be involved in helping us repair our infrastructure. but in pennsylvania we have about 500 structurally insufficient bridges. the other 4,490 can't be and they need to be fixed. they're public safety hazards. that's number one. number two, one of the politicians who raced the gas tax was ronald reagan. and ronald reagan said why would

we put off doing something today when if we put it off for ten years, it's going to be two or three times more expensive? ronald reagan was right then and he's right now. and lastly, the stimulus dollars. depends how you use them. in pennsylvania, i was governor, we got a billion dollars for roads, bridges, and highways. we reduced our structural deficient bridges from 6600 to 4500. we reduced them by one-third. a lot of people went to work. we tracked the jobs that billion dollars produced and it produced over 24,000 jobs at factories and on the job site. >> that's a quick fix, ed. you said that in pennsylvania you can't take a dime of it and spend it on anything else. the federal tax, 25% of it goes to other projects. if we cap that wouldn't that be enough? >> it wouldn't be enough to take care of it, but we should still do it. i agree with a lot of what grover said. and we certainly should make sure you can't raid the trust

fund. that's for sure. number one. number two, we got rid of earmarks which is in some ways not so good but in other ways very good because it means we're not going wasteful ridiculous projects. >> governor, davis-bacon, is that obsolete? is it bad that still is prevailing and can democrats ever see fit to -- would they ever have the intestinal fortitude to make -- grover is saying no -- to go against the unions on this issue? >> they can't do it. they can't do it. >> you're looking at a democrat who's a very progressive democrat. and yet we raise the cap in pennsylvania on the jobs for smaller jobs, the prevailing wage doesn't apply, we raise the cap from $50,000 to $100,000 on those jobs. but labor costs are a small

percentage of what road building or for that matter, building buildings -- >> is that true, grover? that's not the fly in the ointment then? >> look, it's a very important -- >> it's not the cost driver. >> okay. don't come to the american people and tell them they should pay more until the politicians have gotten rid of the barnacles of the last hundred years. they siphon -- right now you pay your gas tax, they siphon off and it goes to metro and subways in new york. not roads like you're using roads, it's a user fee for roads. they take it and put bunches of it off that have nothing to do with roads. second, what's the federal government doing in the first place? we built the interstate highway system. the roads that the governor was talking about are inside pennsylvania. every state could do their own roads if there are little pieces of it attaching states to each other, the federal government

could pay for that. the reason they want the federal government to do it is they want someone else to be responsible both for raising the money, raising taxes, and for all the mistakes that get made. we should push down to governors and to mayors the responsibility for raising their own taxes and building their own roads and governors and mayors who don't do that and instead pontificate about what's going on in the other side of the planet, they should lose their jobs. they should be forced to build the roads, pave the roads with money they raised in their states, in their communities. not come to washington. >> so you would disagree with ronald reagan? >> as ronald reagan said, raise the taxes he got talked into raising was the biggest mistake he made as president. i agree with that. >> he raised taxes 11 times. 11 times. >> yeah. he had democratic house and democratic senate. you don't necessarily get to run the country just because you're president as obama's learning.

>> oh, boy. >> that would be a good idea. house of one party. it would be a hell of a good idea. >> we're waiting on the president now to start. it's been six years. >> i agree. >> nothing. >> i agree, grover. i agree with you. >> good. >> we've got to take this on the road. governor, thank you. governor rendell and grover norquist, appreciate it. thanks. up next, isn't -- it isn't your cousin eddie's rv? do you remember that? >> i do. >> where he was sticking the sewage right out in the open and then the people next door, julia louis-dreyf louis-dreyfus, margo and todd and the whole thing blows sky high. the industry's enjoying -- i don't think winnebago likes people bringing up randy quaid. the industry is enjoying a rise in sales. we get behind the wheel with winneba winnebago's ceo next. and then later, jim cramer tells

us what you need to watch at the open on wall street. here are the futures right now. we're looking higher on the open. we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box." new this morning the rv industry is out with a report saying next year is going to be another banner year for sales. the prediction is that the rv shipments will reach their highest levels since 2007. this report being unveiled at

the rv trade show in kentucky. here to take us inside the numbers is randy potts. he's the ceo of winnebago. take a look up. up about 20% in the last month. randy, thanks for joining us. >> good morning. thank you for having me. >> before we even get into what's going on with winnebago, how much do you think the growth is being driven by the low oil prices? >> well, it sure can't hurt. i mean, energy prices, energy availability have always been a big factor in rvs. there's other things like interstate rates, availability of loans. the wealth effect of the consumer. demographics. there's a lot of things that drive it. everything's aligning in favor of the rv industry right now. >> in terms of what -- in terms of the demographic, what's pushing it the most? you're saying it's not oil prices? i would think oil prices would have a huge amount.

i would think pop culture has a huge thing to do with sales of rvs. >> again, i didn't mean to say that oil prices have nothing to do with it. there's certainly a factor. but what we call the silver tsunami, the graying of the baby boomers, that's the prime market for a lot of the rv segments. especially motorized. >> i'm reading here it says more than 2,000 new drivers are needed nationwide to transport. you have 25,000 to 30,000 finished rvs that need to get to dealerships? >> yeah. most rvs are driven to their destination. that was a real problem for the industry last year. especially in the winter when there are a lot of weather problems. the polar vortex, all the headlines that we heard. hopefully that's a lot better going forward. we expect it to be better in the coming year. >> how many rvs will you produce this year?

>> well, in the industry, we look at the industry in two different segments. the towables and motorized. motorized will be 44,000 is the prediction for the coming year. and towables i believe is around 285,000 units. something in that neighborhood. >> and what are the price points like? >> oh, the price points vary dramatically. motorized price points are anywhere from at the retail level, msrps of around $60,000 all the way up to over a million bucks. the average selling price historically is probably low hundred thousands depending on the manufacturer and the product. in towables, it's a whole different thing. stickers down into the teens for small travel trailers, camping

trailers even less. then all the way up into, you know, high hundred thousands for luxury fifth wheels. >> you can't get people to drive these things? that sounds like a good job. can't you just pull over and sleep there? cook a meal? i mean, why wouldn't people -- you're going to drive something, that sounds like fun. it's better than driving a big semi. can't you just crawl back into bed? >> well, yeah, to some extent. but a lot like the semis you mentioned, there's a lot of regulations. they can only drive so many hours, they have to have certain licensing. >> oh. >> randy, you need a special license to drive this? >> no. >> not as an owner, you don't, no. but as a delivery driver, you do. >> really? so any idiot and drive it and own it? but you need special permits if you don't own it? >> sounds like a good job though. >> god bless america. europe and some of the other countries aren't quite so liberal in that way. >> i think there's going to be like a walter white effect on

this industry. >> you don't like hearing about walter white or cousin eddie, i don't think, very much randy. >> you're welcome. >> we're going to leave it there. have a great trade show. randy potts, we appreciate it very much. >> i'm excited because meg's going to come on. up next, we will eventually get to jim cramer. also meg tirrell. stock is surging up $15. they were supposed to present right at 8:10 and they must have said something, meg tirrell will bring us that when we return. ciy outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. so we put our secrets into a new book. and if you're one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling, we'll send you a copy for free.

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biogen is a fabulous company. >> some effect on cognizant early stage trials. big gainer today, up $14. >> this is the next frontier. people have to recognize there is excellent progress made for alzheimer's. >> do you think janet yellen's prospects have been hurt since she said they are overvalued? >> that was the exact bottom in the group.

that was the pharmaceutical moment where you had this explosion. you had a lot of companies being bought right then. in retrospect, she's got to stick to her knitting. bad call by her. she went by the sell. if she had gone by hold i would have liked it. >> we shouldn't be surprised. we'll see you in a couple of minutes. >> biogen is the stock of the morning after a new alzheimer drug showed promise in an early study. they're coming.

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shares of biogen soaring this morning. meg terrell has the story. what is the size of the alzheimer's market? >> i don't think they know. they never had a drug that worked. >> this is just the phase one trial. >> right. it's phase 1-3 th o1-b. it's the say the of this drug. it showed potential efficacy here. this is an interim look. they stopped and looked at the data. they had been planning to do this. they saw a reduction of that amyloid plaque in the brain. they did show reduction of that plaque. they showed surprisingly an effect on cognition at 54 weeks in this study. they were looking at safety and did see signals. they think they have a window they can take it forward, now they say aggressively, into the

latest stages of trial. >> that would be the effect of diminishing alzheimer's. >> not just stopping it, reversing it? >> not necessarily. but helping people think more clearly. we don't have a lot of details here. they were taking a quick look. >> what you said was interesting, we won't get into the details, but safety is important in alzheimer's. removing the plaques can have a negative effect -- they are gumming up the brain. if you remove them you can have a mini stroke. >> they sited amyloid related abnormalities. >> that is something you have to watch closely. >> right. >> the safety profile is good in this. >> they have a window that will help them go forward. they'll look at more doses. >> thank you, meg.

join us tomorrow. we will be in washington, d.c. with a huge lineup of ceos from the business round table. among the highlights, at&t, exxonmobil, caterpillar. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. david faber is off today. premarket is stable as we await auto sales this morning. cautious research notes on apple and more. crude had that nice bounce yesterday. giving some back today. the ten year crept up to 2.25. our road map begins with a split response to apple's lost of 23 billion in market cap yesterday. >> a flood of new data from