whole. the xal up 30 something percent so far this year. but we have one analyst coming on saying that low oil price mace not be as good as you think for airlines. there could be a cautionary tale around the corner. >> we had hawaiian ayrton show talk about a near vertical move in their stock price, melissa, since that oil price collapsed. and as we just mentioned, it may not be done yet. >> it may not be done. but the question is what do they do with all this extra money. >> yeah. >> do they spend it before like drunken sailors or maintain their dislynn? >> great point. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders are dan nathan, karen finerman, and guy adami. we're talking to elon musk. tesla and solar city both getting hit in the wake of falling oil prices. but do the moves make sense, or are these buying opportunities? we will debate it and talk to the ceo of solar city, musk's cuss son, lyndon live.

tomorrow morning we'll get the final jobs report of the year. economists are expecting 230,000 jobs to be added. could the number tomorrow give stocks the all clear to rally into year end? dan nathan, we're talking about a trade for the next three weeks. what do you think? >> i think you stick with what has worked. in a lot of ways, i think the data tomorrow, u.s. has been compartmentalized. it's the best trade in the entire globe right now. so if you're going stick with the s&p, we're right here at the highs. you'll stick with the things that will work. to me, some of the names are defensive, which is microsoft and intel on the technology side of things. they have these great dividend yields. and they're at 14-year highs. but then things like micron i would also say. and a stock everyone has forgotten about because it's flat lined a little bit, facebook. i know guy loves the name here. this is one that i suspect if the market is going to close at all-time highs facebook is going to close closer to $80. >> the numbers comes in weaker so the fed remains on the sidelines a little longer. the numbers come many stronger,

the economy is stronger than we think. either way, that may be good, good enough is the operative phrase here for a rally into the year end. >> that's the question, right? you have two things going on here. i think the jobs number, the market has a very narrow path to go down here with the jobs number. you get less than 250, i think you get the dollar selling off. which actually could unwind a lot of these trades. everybody is into the strong dollar trade now. that doesn't have anything to do with whether the jobs number is good or bad. people start unwinding these trade. on the other hand, as you mention, you get something north of 300, then people are going to have to reassess when they think the fed is going the hike rates. and that actually could be bad too. as crazy as it sounds, the economy is too strong for us. but for right now, what i would do is just be cautious. i bought some puts today just to be cautious in this market. >> karen? >> we like whole foods, which isn't normally our kind of thing. but if we see decent jobs data, it has tended to outperform on the heels of that. that's not normally how we look at things. but it's nice to have that. i think they're in the middle

of -- it's not a turnaround. it's sort of a reinvigoration of their business. it's not that expensive here for the kind of growth that i think they still have. >> guy? >> two names that seem to be impervious to the tape. it does not speak to the strength of the consumer. to me it speaks to how consumers spend. mastercard and visa. we talked about them for a while. visa is 21 times forward. mastercard 25 times forward. but their transaction growth continues to improve. their margins continue to improve. they're stories that are not going away any time soon. the market seems impervious to any perceived bad news. the s&p seems to want to go higher. today was a day the market should have sold off. didn't do it. >> for retrade, karen do, you think the markets as a whole have a bias to the upside at this point? >> i actually think with the volatility index here, it's a little bit of a rope a dope. so i would be more inclined to be with bk and buy the vix.

>> to me it's useless. what i'm thinking about is the volatility that we've seen. everyone is trying to pick a bottom in oil. and look how volatile it has been over the last week as it's maybe bottoming out. i don't know. but when you think about the volatility that we've seen in credit markets and fx markets and kpots, i don't like it. i got to tell you, i do not like the fact that the only risk asset the world over that is not volatile is the s&p 500. to me that makes me very nervous as we head into 2015. >> and we've heard this time and time again. you have mentioned this many times. raul paul of global macro has come on and made the same point essentially. how can you have such volatility reaching record highs, multi-year highs in all of the asset classes except for equities and we continue to propel to new records. >> the mechanics that are going on. people are taking money out of other asset classes and plowing into it the u.s. stock market for good or for bad. we know that the japanese pension funds are doing that. we know that people have been leaving europe and coming into the u.s. so when we talk about volatility, what we all really mean is prices going down, not

necessarily prices going up. so in this case, that's why i think this market is very vulnerable. because there have been buyers in here that have been predicated on the strong dollar. and i think you could have a real problem if you get a weak jobs number tomorrow. >> yeah, i think people are very comfortable with up volatility and sort of ignore it. down volatility is a whole other story. >> check out the airline stocks here. getting a nice pop today. building on their hefty 2014 gains. the airline index has climbed more than 40% this year with upside accelerating in light of falling oil. our next guest says cheap crude may not be the best thing for the airlines. joining us on the "fast" line is hunter kay, the senior analyst. great to you with us. >> you downgraded the sector a month or so ago. what are the concerns that airlines won't maintain the discipline once prices creep higher? >> we took the market weight from market overweight which in the context of the bullishness of airline analysts throughout makes us quote/unquote the bear on the street.

that being said, yeah, we always knew that we were going to be probably a few months too early with that. but given the pullback that we just saw and everyone called that ebola bottoming out, it's better if you're an airline investor probably to be three months too early than three weeks too late these days, especially with the volatility of the market. but call is predicated around not so much oil itself but more the capacity creep that we're seeing. and when you layer in the disciplinarian effect that high oil prices have had on airlines being disciplined with capacity, the lower oil goes, the less confidence we have that they're going to be continued to be disciplined on capacity which is going to hurt them when oil inevitably goes back up, whenever that is. >> hunter, how are you? when i used to do this in the old days, there was not really a correlation between jet fuel and crude oil prices. maybe you can speak to, flaeb is a correlation today between. you said it. maybe the bottoming of crude is not as bullish as one would necessarily think.

>> yeah, well, hey, how are you. jet fuel and crude oil are reasonably correlated, obviously. the crack spread can blow out a little bit here and there when there is refinery capacity adjustme adjustments. and it has widened and tightened in years past more so than it say pre2007 when oil was left volatile. but yeah, it doesn't change the overall concept that high oil prices force airlines to do things that are good for the long-term benefit of their shareholders. >> i get your concern in terms of when oil prices start ticking higher, the airlines might be caught with their pants down so to speak. but at the same time a lot of the street has come out and said at least for the next couple of years, we're now seeing brent and wti in the range of call it 70s, $70 a barrel or so. do you acknowledge that perhaps you're stepping to the sidelines maybe at a time when oil prices are still going to be in their sweet spot and the airlines

won't actually get hit. so you could actually be missing out on a lot of the trade. >> sure. and that's why i'm happy have i five perform ratingses on airlines. you just have to be a little more specific. a market weight rating is in the context of five outperform rated names. a couple of names we really love. it's time to start picking stocks here. i'm an airline analyst. i'm not going to tell someone what oil is going to do or not do. i'm not going to look at the forecast and make an assumption and plug it in. i have no earthly clue what oil is doing. neither does the ceo of any airline i cover. what i do know is it's volatile. while it may be going to 60, it could also be going to $115 a barrel in four weeks. so you got to be specific here you. can't just say let's just bay a basket airlines because they're going to go up. which airlines have good bottoms-up fundamental stories that are going to be relative outperformers in the event that i'm wrong an oil. and that's five airline stocks that we like. >> all right. hunter, we'll leave there it. thank you for your time. hunter keay, wolf research. would you agree at this point?

>> look how they traded today. pull up any airline and we have weaker oil today, and the airlines reversed. a reversal down today. to me it seems at least for now in the very short-term, the weaker oil effect is starting to come off of the airlines here. and if you're fortunate enough to catch this big thing, why not take at least a third off tomorrow? >> hunter's top picks are spirit and alaska. what do you say about that? >> my top pick continues to be jetblue. it was up lot more at one point during the day. but here is a stock with a huge short interest:00, about 23%. valuation is ridiculous. and it finally seems to be catching up with the rest of the space. he said it is potentially be early. thing is more upside in jblu. >> i want to make one point about united airlines. you talk about discipline. these are companies that have all merged and they've had a lot of pricing power and they've extracted, there has been a lot of margin out of this. when you look at the sales growth expected over the next few years, there is not a whole heck of a lot. once you get all of the cost savings in, after 2015, especially in united, then you're back to companies that

are expected to grow earnings and sales, low single digits. again, there are cheap stocks. eight, nine times earnings. but remember, they're also trading at 15-year highs here. back to your point about getting caught with your pants down, i do not think you chase them at all. okay. another down day for elon musk's tesla. is this stock a buying opportunity? that's next. next, lyndon live, ceo of solar city will join us in an exclusive interview to explain why he thinks solar stocks should not be getting hit along with the price of oil. that's coming up next on "fast." no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable.

twhat do i do?. you need to catch the 4:10 huh? the equipment tracking system will get you to the loading dock. ♪ there should be a truck leaving now. i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable.

we're for an opens you internet for all.sing. we're for creating more innovation and competition. we're for net neutrality protection. now, here's some news you may find even more surprising. we're comcast. the only isp legally bound by full net neutrality rules.

welcome back to "fast money." we're watching shares of smith & wesson. the gun maker is posting better than expected second quarter growths. but gross margins fell to 32% from 42% the same time last year. the company said sales dropped 22% on lower consumer demand. the shares down by about you can see there just half a percent right now. also interesting, they did say it was sales of long-barreled rifles, modern sporting rifles that declined 50%, while handgun sales declined a less than expected by some analysts 15%. so handgun sales continue to outperform large rifles,

melissa. back over to you. >> it's interesting. that's exactly what we've heard time and time again from the likes of dick's sporting goods. hunting is slow. >> so let me point out. >> yes. >> when we were in the green room when this came out, the stock started in at 440. it was trading at $8.60ish. it's bounced since then. i wouldn't be surprised if it's green by tend of the show. i wouldn't want to give away the ghost here. >> what is left. >> finish your sentence. >> i mean, it would be a good final trade candidate. >> cloaked in mystery there. moving on. shares of tesla may be getting hit on the back of falling oil prices. but our next guest says anyone who is selling tesla son the wrong side of the trade. let's bring in senior market analyst collin rush. collin, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> obviously, the differential in terms of the cost savings that one tesla owner could have based on $60 versus $100 is significant. but that's not the reason why people are buying tesla. >> people aren't buying the car for the cost difference. they're talking about the high

performance the user experience, the fact that it's an incredible car. and there is some environmental benefit. so there is personal brand value to that. and there is a great brand experience for all of these folks. >> at the same time, when it comes to the growth story, part of it is growing their total addressable market. and part of that is selling more mainstream, lower-end vehicles to many, many more people. in november, we saw prius sales go down 14% based on falling oil prices and gas prices. are you concerned that if we're in a low oil environment for a very long time, that when they roll that lower end model out, there is not going to be as much demand? >> thing are two things you want to think about. the first is you're not going to go to the low end of the market. you're only going to the bmw 3 type cars. so you're not going to see value buyers for this product at any point in the life cycle of that product. so we're not as concerned about that. the second point that we're making a point today is tesla's addressable market is not just the transportation market, but is actually the larger power market.

and we've been talking about tesla as a transformative transportation company. but really we think about it now as a transformative power and energy company that is selling premium products both into the transportation market as well as into the stationary power market, which we think is just as big as that automotive market. >> so when you say stationary power, because we have lyndon live on later on, are there synergies with solar and specifically with a company like solar city? is that what you're thinking somebody. >> absolutely. and the fact that elon has this portfolio of companies that he is involved in, it makes an awful lot of sense. i think they are going to be selling power and power services into the electrical market, not only in the u.s. but around the world. what we have seen from them in the industry conferences is tesla is representing residential products that they're going to be introducing in the second quarter of next year and industrial products for the third quarter next year. and these are really high value products. so our analysis today is suggesting that the margin on those products as we look out to 2018, 2020 is compelling if not more compelling than the automotive margins. it's really two ways to win with this company as we go over the

next three to five years. >> when you look at a market, as big as that addressable market that you talk about, and you try to make projections, a little move in revenue or margins or anything could have a very, very huge move on valuations. how do you discount that fact? how do you get comfort around that? >> we take very severe discounts to what the actual addressable market is and what these guys can produce. in terms of the power market, we're only giving them credit for 35 to 40% of what they said they are going to do by 2020. well think they're going to do a significantly higher amount of volume on that stationary power market and it could displace some of their automotive market. they've got this other option. so we're seeing our price target here rerest as we look out the next three to five years. >> and your price target on tesla is? >> 298 right now. >> paul, thanks for coming by. crate it. >> thank you. >> collin rusch. >> and tesla is going to be a

challenge for years to come. i really like the story here. i'm looking for -- i think you're going see the stock at 200 very soon. today was the third close in a row below the 200 average moving level. it has not three below since late 2012. i think momentum is waning. i also mention the stock got a little bit of a bump last week when lon musk said they're talking to bmw about some of the stuff he just mentioned. bmw said they weren't. it seems there no catalyst near term. they keep pushing out the model. the stock could be back below 200. that's where you start to dip your toe in the water. >> momentum is waning. dan is right. regardless of what you think, the solar stock ask the same way. you can say it all you want, but they trade lockstep with crude. 225 is my number. it's bounced there a number of times. i still think that's a pivot. i think if it goes to dan's level, you're going to print down to 180 which is the low we saw in may. ing i say you get long in 225. that's where you trade around. below this, i think it gets to 180. >> this notion that we're going to value tesla based on edge energy storage business out in

the future, it's sort of a leap of faith. >> we're talking next year they're going to come out with an consumer product and industrial product. >> full ramp-up in 2020. >> if that's what the market is talking about, that's the valuation. to me, that's the story here with tesla. >> so you buy that for next year for all the way to 2020? >> yes, absolutely. so i said it last night that i would buy. it could get through 220. if it gets down to 220, i'll buy. >> up next, amazon is looking to capitalize on your shopping skills from your nearest public bathroom. details when we return. plus, the china play that suddenly is not participating this the shanghai index rally. dan nathan has the chart you want to see. that's ahead. from record breaking highs to major market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in-depth analysis and actionable advice. >> i think you can own the stock here with a tight stop. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day.

>> i think it's now become a stock that you don't play into earnings. >> this is "fast money." >> i think they both go a lot higher. >> have a markets quest for the "fast money" traders? tweet us @cnbcfastmoney.

♪

♪ rocket man >> take a look at sears kicking off our top trades. getting hit hard after reporting a net loss of the quarter of 8 $548 million. the bleeding continues. >> it does. maybe they were bleeding a little less slowly than people thought. so this morning that seemed exciting. i just -- i think it is untouchable. they seem to be doing whatever they can to shore up the business, but i don't think they can shore up the business when the gross margins are going the way that they're going. the top line is going the way it's going. eddie lambert pert is a smart g. whether it's equity, debt, i'm not sure. the short interest is huge. this is too dangerous from either side. i wouldn't play it. >> so when you say you're not sure either side of the play if he is in debt, he is less afraid of dragging the stock down because he will still get paid.

>> it is starting to move. it used to be very much in the equity. we saw him personally lending. the firm was lending. so i think it's way too complicated. i don't have the feeling -- it's sort of like you don't know who the patsy is here. you don't need to play then. >> right. >> she is right. it seems like the last store was earlier in november that reetz news came out up to 45 bucks. and it's basically dwindled. hasn't given everything back, but on virtue to give everything back. i don't know what the levers they can pull. we can talk about pulling levers. >> oh really? like amazon. what a segue. getting set to take on the likes of grub hub and seamless. the ecommerce retailer is hoping you will shop in the comfort of your local public toilet seat by teaming up with png stall malls where you can download the amazon an, displaying bar codes for coupons available on all of your toiletry needs. guy?

it's so fitting that this trade goes to you. >> there are so many things wrong. >> i don't even know where to begin. >> it's madness. it requires you to be there it would seem to me. it seems like you have to be there for a while have. you ever been in a public urinal? >> you want to get out fast. >> be that as it may, the stock flush -- [ laughter ] >> i didn't mean that. we said down to 280. it's going to trade up to 320. it did. it overshot. i think this is headed right back down. now dan is of the contention that you're going to be able to pull levers next quarter. >> levers. >> he may be right. but i think it goes down first. >> i would just say this. we know they're going to do monster sales in q 4 and killing bricks and mortar all over the place. we heard from bezos this week about all the disappointments, the money they spent on things that never work. i think at some point to guy's point to gee swizzle's point that maybe they do pull a lever just to show they can earn. and then just say get off my back a little bit. this is what we're doing. >> that would catch people

offguard if they pull that lever suddenly. >> just to demonstrate it. we know growing sales 20% a year forever until they get to that trillion in sales. but they got to show us the money. >> right. >> assuming you even frequent public rest rooms. >> try not to. >> would you shop? >> no! >> you have to be focused. >> you get it done, you're out of there. still ahead, it has been a rough few months for the solar trade with names like solar power all down 25% in the last three months alone as oil prices continue to slide. but the ceo of solar city says there is absolutely no correlation whatsoever between cheap oil and solar. he'll explain in a cnbc exclusive interview. that's ahead.

still ahead on "fast money," how to play the strong dollar. we'll tell you which companies are most at risk, coming up. and solar stocks getting thrown out over the last three months as oil prices continue to fall. but the ceo of solar city says investors are getting it wrong. he'll make his case coming up. and what is happening in china.

that is a chart you need to see. that is straight ahead. the dollar's gain is intensifying and current volatility is on the rise which u.s. companies most vulnerability at this point. let's get to dom chu for more. dom? >> we look at some of the s&p 500 companies, the large cap that have the most business or sales exposure outside of the united states. and there are a huntsville of them. a lot of companies don't exactly break down country by country or region by region what their results are. but for the ones that do, there are some very interesting names that pop to the head of the list here. if you take a look first of all a stock that we talk about every day, apple. take a look at that. according to s&p capital iq, about 62% of sales come from outside of the united states. then there is oil service giant schlumberger. about 2/3 of its sayles sales come outside north america. they don't go as granular as country by country. qualcomm, interestingly enough on the chip side of things may be no surprise that almost all of its sales outside the u.s., mainly in asian countries where a lot of technology fabrication

happens. and philip morris international. this company split between altria the economic tobacco company in existence as well as philip morris international which is pretty much every business outside the u.s. if you look at large cap that may feel an impact from a strengthening dollar, it's a ones that generate a lot of their sales and possibly profits from outside the borders. that's why it's such a big deal for a lot of investors, melissa. >> thanks for that. the flip side is to play the domestic companies which is why a lot of people are in favor of things like the russell 2000 which is much more domestically oriented. dan, where would you go? >> at&t verizon, they have no dollar exposure and really fat yields right now. about 5%. they just sold off recently. so to me if you're looking too cut some your exposure of u.s. multinationals you could think about getting long at&t and verizon here. they're essentially bonds with no dollar exposure. >> bk? >> i sold all my long dollar exposure today. i think this could be one of the worst times in the last 30 or 40

years to try to get long dollar here. to me you had a massive run, the biggest run since the currency pig system broke down. we're at 30-year down term highs. to me this is a terrible place to be a long dollar. >> in earnings season we did see companies that had a lot of overseas exposure and they did just fine. it's only an fish they're going to get their estimates by a hair, or if they can only meet. then currency headwinds are going to be a bigger fact for them. >> to that point i bring you johnson & johnson. they have huge worldwide exposure. they make things that people need to buy. their consumer products business is unbelievable. they stole that from pfizer seven or seven years, probably longer than that when they basically ripped pfizer off to the tune of $17 billion. and you saw what pfizer had to do years later when they bought american home products for close to 80 builds. to me j&j gets it done on a number of different metrics, despite the fact that they have international exposure. i think it's still a campaign you want to own. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. a drop for csx, down.

>> this stock has been on a tear. it initiated with a $41 price target today and it went down today. the move has been parabolic. i think it's just a pullback. i think the rails continue higher. >> barnes & noble down 5%. karen? >> microsoft exiting their barnes & noble investment. this on top of several months ago liberty exiting their investment at barnes & noble. they probably know something that is not great. i wouldn't follow -- i wouldn't be in. i would be out. >> pop for kroger, up 4%. >> this stock has had a monster year. good earnings. up 54% this year. just killing it. b.k. would take some profits off here. i think they're take some sales from whole foods. but right now you have to take a third to a half off on this pop. >> a drop for dish network, down 2%, dan. >> we're going to know tonight. cbs is threatening to pull the net work off of dish network has 14 million subscribers. this thing had an amazing breakout mid last month. it went from 65 to 80. now it's back at 73. if this stock gets hit on cbs

pulling, i think it's probably a buy. back towards the 65 dlard breakout level. i don't think you have to wade in right away. i think it takes a couple of days to sort itself out. chinese stocks having the best bunn one-day gain since 2012. dan is a look agent the divergence between wynn. >> there is a lot of reasons. one thing is important. when you think about wynn resorts, they get about 70% of their sales from macau. it's been a china play the last few years. at one point in march, wynn was up 30% on the year. even when the shanghai was down and out, this is a better indication of what is going on in the chinese economy. to me, at some point it diverged. it diverged with the s&p. it kept on making lower lows. then look at the chart right there. look at what has happened to the shanghai composite. i know b.k. has reasons why it has spike there's. wynn has fallen off a cliff. as a trader, i look for

divergences, little things maybe other people aren't focused on. i don't know how you can have this sort divergence that is so tied to china and not extrapolate it to other china plays here. to me if this divergence continues, it gets me thinking about chinese growth. >> adds energy in the u.s. gets less and less expensive because of falling oil prices, investors are dumping solar stocks. coming up next, we talk to the ceo of solar city lyndon live about why he thinks wall street is getting it all wrong. that's next. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes, ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,... ...and gives you clear buy, sell, hold recommendations...

...on every stock; anytime, anywhere. vectorvest mobile comes free with your vectorvest trial. get it now! visit vectorvest.com/mobile to get started

♪ blinded by the light . who wrote this song? >> i don't know that. >> bruce springsteen. >> karen finerman, ding, ding, ding. >> it wasn't that hard. >> investors dumping solar stocks over the past three months as crude prices fall. we have someone who says cheaper fuel shouldn't bleed into solar energy demand. joining us for an exclusive interview is solar city ceo lyndon live. he is a member of our next list which focuses on leaders and innovators. great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> there is a fact, and then reality. most electricity has nothing to do with oil so should have

nothing to do with falling oil prices. but reality is that solar stocks and oil of late have been highly correlated. since june, since the peak of oil, the correlation coefficient between solar stocks and oil is at 0.79, which is quite high. what is your case to investors? obviously they're ignoring the fact and looking at the reality of the trade. >> i think people put energy in one big bucket. and oil of course falls into the energy bucket. but you have to look at how electricity is generated. what source is used to create electricity. in the u.s., almost no oil is used to create electricity. even if oil went down to 50, it would have almost zero effect on the cost of electricity. but the opposite is true too. if oil went up to 150, it would also have almost zero effect on the cost of electricity. what moves the cost of electricity is transmission and distribution infrastructure. that's what costs a lot of

money. it's definitely not oil. oil has no effect, unless you live on an island. some islands use oil as an energy source. >> right. and i guess people would say saudi arabia. less than 5% of the world's electricity is generated with diesel or oil-related derivatives. at the same time, lyndon, do you feel like you're on a bit of a public relations campaign at this point? you can say that, and that all makes sense, and that is all true. at the same time, your stock and other solar stocks are trading along with oil. >> i actually think for those smart investors, this is -- when the market doesn't understand a dynamic, and that is a great opportunity to understand the issue, truly see if this is a big problem or not a problem. and then capitalize on the opportunity. oil has no effect or almost any effect on cost of electricity in the u.s. so if the market is reacting to low cost of oil, then once you

look at that and say okay, the market is just wrong. >> hi, it's karen. let me ask you. i buy the solar story. i'm long solar. but let me just push back a little bit. natural gas and coal i would think both do have more of an input potentially on electricity prices than oil. those happen to be down as well. is that relevant? >> so absolutely. so those do have more of an effect on the cost of energy. but let me walk you through what has happened through specifically on a natural gas. so natural gas over the last few years has had a major decline. and then went up slightly and now it's coming down again slightly. in its major decline when it went down to almost around $2.50 range, the cost of electricity still went up. so the gas component only focuses on the cost of the fuel to generate the electricity.

but your cost of electricity is all in the infrastructure. very little of it is based on the actual fuel source. so it's mainly in transmission and distribution. so even with natural gas, prices that have come down dramatically since 2009, the cost of retail electricity has actually gone up. and how is that possible? you've got this aging infrastructure that has been around for 100 years. that needs to be upgraded. and those upgrades far exceed any of the benefits that you're getting from low cost of natural gas. >> lyndon, i want to talk about the cost side of the business and what that business environment overall looks like. a lot of solar analysts are already looking out to the next couple years saying it's going to be a record in terms of residential installments here in the united states. a key part who have is going to dominate the solar picture is who can keep costs down. you the cost leader right now when costs per watt. you're at, what 29 or so and you're closest competitor

vivant, and they're at 299, all in costs per watt. how confident are you in terms of the ramp-up with the acquisition in achieving your goal of below 250 a watt, since that does seem to be crucial going forward in terms of maintaining your leadership? the gap between vivant and you fairly small considering vivant has about a third of your market share at this point. >> yeah, i think the number of the 299 is wrong. >> okay. >> all our number says it's around 350. so it is a big gap between us, a significant gap between us and the number two guy. so i think that may be wrong. but in terms of meeting our 250 goal, we feel very optimistic in achieving it. every time we have laid out a cost forward cost we have always exceeded our cost forward cost. the 250 is going to hit at around the same time when the factory will be up and running. but we're not depending -- in order for us to hit the 250 is

not tied to the success of the factory. >> it is not? >> no. >> so if you missed the ramp you're end '16 is when a lot are saying you'll be fully operational. even if that does not happen, you'll still hit that target? >> yeah. just to be clear, the building, we'll be able to occupy the building in 2016. but production will be fully ramped production will be 2017. so you got to get the equipment in. you got to get it optimized. fully ramped production on the plan is 2017. but in our cost forward costs in order for us to meet the 250, we are not planning on the factory to be up and running. >> and last question, obviously, you have a connection with elon. he is your cousin. he is in the midst of building a giant giga factory. a lot of folks are talking about the advantage not just providing energy solutions for tesla, but also being an energy storage company. and the next logical question is well, then, solarcity is part of this great elon musk portfolio you. guys are obviously connected. can you tell us anything about

how you would benefit, how solarcity would benefit specifically from that giga factory? >> yeah, absolutely. so currently we are deploying hundreds of storage devices today associated with solar systems. but this is more in r&d or pilot testing to see we have to build out the control systems to manage all the devices. the cost of storage is still a little too high to make it cost-effective. so when the factory is up and running, at that point the cost of storage will be effective, cost-effective to include with the solar system and still be able to provide a price per kilowatt hour less than the current cost of energy from the utility. so that's the goal. if you look at by the time that's up and rung, call it three or four years, we should be able to include storage in all places where the cost of energy is higher. and then over time as our costs comes down, the long-term goal, call it eight years or so is to add storage to every one of our solar systems.

>> but is he going to be selling these storage systems to your competitors? do you think you'll have an exclusive lock on this technology? >> no, i don't think we'll have an exclusive lock on this. >> okay. >> and in reality, you want everyone to install storage with solar. so if you look at the challenge that we're going to face with our grid infrastructure when you look at large scale adoption of solar. >> right. >> you have to address peak loads. you to address voltage control. you have to be able to provide electricity at night. >> right. >> solar can't do that today without storage. and if you want to live -- if you want to get to a point where we can live a carbon-free lifestyle or get to 40% global energy or 50% renewable energy as the u.n. mentioned, we have to have storage be part of that solution. >> right. so it's to look again at storage. >> we're out of time, lyndon. but we do appreciate your time. thank you very much.

>> thank you for having me. >> lyndon live of solar city. lots to say particularly about the notion that the factory going to be much more than a car battery factory. >> you can start to see what elon musk was thinking when he started these two companies. to me, looking at solarcity, $50 has been really good support. so if you believe in the story, i think you buy it right here. >> on top of a huge shortness. what seems to be going on in this is a huge land grab in the space. none of them are really profitable. they will be at some point. you got to believe the story the weakness in oil has provided an opportunity to get long in the stocks. bk is right about the level. you buy it right here. earlier karen told us she was shorting collin frost bank on falling oil prices. what is the latest here? >> well, you know, we covered because the risk-reward has sort of changed. i do think we see a dramatic move in oil, it will continue to trade down. but i do want to just say that it's not that i think there will be severe credit losses in their oil book. it's that i think it was trading

on multiples prerest flecking huge growth in areas where they bank. so that i don't think will continue making those big multiples too high. >> okay. you covered. okay. coming up, japan took the coveted top spot in the whiskey bible this year. but we talk to the maker of mcallen about his battle plan to win back the masses. much more straight ahead. no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable. ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪

♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪ ♪ look here, daddy, i'm never coming back... ♪ discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around $329 a month. twhat do i do?. you need to catch the 4:10 huh? the equipment tracking system will get you to the loading dock. ♪ there should be a truck leaving now. i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable.

welcome back to "fast money." shares of amberella are down 2 1/2% in the after hours trade. the company, which specializes in chips used in high definition video cameras reported earnings and sales that topped expectations. it also forecast current quarter revenues above consensus views. the company attributed strength in wearable products and internet-based security cameras among other things to those results. this is a stock that has been on a sharp ride higher, having gained about 78% so far this year. and the reason why this company is so important, it makes a lot of these action cameras, wearable cameras, dashboard cameras, that kind of thing. it's a very hot topic these days given all the headlines. back to you. >> thanks.

this is a gopro play though they feed into more than go pro. >> to your point. i thought when go pro recaptured that secondary price at 75 and ratcheted up to 79, it was back off to the races. and it's disappointed. i still believe in the go pro story. i still believe in the stock. it's been dicey the last couple of weeks. i still thing you have to stay long in the name. i think it moves higher. one trader made a massive bet that a certain sector could fall into. dan? >> it was industrials. it was spider industrial etf, xli. it was 57 early in the morning i traded about 25,000 of the december 56 puts anticipating $1.2 million in premium. and that breaks even in two and a half weeks at basically 55 1/2, down 2 1/2%. when you think of it and go back to the chart here, obviously this thing has had a monster move. i would mention the break even of this is kind of at the breakout level. if you look under the hood, the largest component is ge, which

is down on the year. utx, down on the year and honeywell. so maybe this trader's got some nice gains in some of the industrials that are acting well, but thinks maybe the ones that haven't acted well are going to continue to act poorly into year end and is a looking for cheap protection or a directional bet on the sector. >> all right. for more option actions, check out the live show tomorrow 5:30 p.m. eastern on cnbc. japan may have this year's best whiskey in the world according to the whiskey bible, but can scotland make a comeback? edrington, famous for the macallan's brand has just released a new cask. joining us is paul ross of, edrington ceo. they say yamazaki is the best. how much does that impact sales? >> it doesn't impact scotch whiskey internationally is almost 100 million cases. it really is international spirit of choice. so yamasaki is a small batch

production distillery. and it's great news for them and i congratulate them. but all it can do is help, help the entire category. if bourbon is doing well, japanese whiskey, certainly scotch whiskey will be doing well. >> in terms of the rare cask you just launched, that here to stay or is that a one-time think to get you to come in? like a marketing tool, if you will. >> no, it's here to stay. the slight challenge we have is supply, you know. generally across macallan, we don't have enough to meet demand. so perhaps this holiday season you might struggle to get a bottle. you need to go online and make a few calls. but it's here to stay. difficult to get. but it's going to be around for a while. >> i would imagine that you get a pretty good snapshot of what is going on in the economy, particularly when it comes to business spenders, when it comes to gifting. so what are you seeing this year compared to years past? >> people are drinking better generally across the board. >> good for them. >> which is good news. and that means with a pickup in the economy, restaurants are getting busier, bars are better.

i spoke to some people in california said they are look at an uptick in trade in these bars and restaurants. so that's good for everybody. so yeah, there is a general premiumization happening. gifts are going market. and therefore something like rare cask which is $300 a bottle. >> $300 a bottle for the rare title. >> which is better than any you can possibly buy for your loved one. >> or purse. >> an affordable luxury, i would say for the season. >> guy, you're saying you're making whipped cream? >> i did. i mean, for you folks at home, and i love this stuff, this guy here, famous grouse, this is what you do at home you. get heavy whipping cream, vanilla sugar and put a half cup of this sucker in there and whip it up. >> what did you serve it on? >> pecan pie, pumpkin pie. it is outstanding. >> need a cooking show. >> it's trade school. >> but you have an apron said kiss the cook? >> i had an apron that said gobble gobble.

>> how many bottles are available right now on the market of rare cask? >> in a 12-month period, it's just been launched. so in new york, for example, there is about 2,000 bolts available. so you're going to have to make a few phone calls. >> 1,999. >> exactly. >> but it's worth the effort. worth the effort. reach out, find the bottle. you won't be disappointed. >> paul, thank you for coming by and sharing some of your whiskey knowledge with us. thank you very much. thanks for having me. >> love you. >> thank you. cheers. coming up on "mad money," you want to drive your portfolio to new heights? cramer has a tech play that could pay off with strong auto sales last month. he is interviewing dealer track to get a better grip on the consumer you. won't want to miss out. we have your first trade out tomorrow so come back.

time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. dan nathan? >> if you have gains in airlines, take it. >> b.k.? >> top of the show i said the market is vulnerable. i think you buy spy puts here. >> karen? >> all this talk about solar, i line sunedison. and if oil goes up, this will go up, even though apparently nothing to do with each other. it will happen, though. >> guy?

>> smith & wesson. i think the quarter is good enough to get the 30% short interest to cover. it down now. i wouldn't be surprised if it's green by the time we open tomorrow. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thank you so much for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." in the meantime, do not go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. . >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find. mad money starts now. hey i'm cramer, welcome to mad money. i'm trying to save you a little money. my job not just entertain but teach you. tweet me at jim cramer.