em porous today, even fancier and he'ding beer and wine to its offerings. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to is b southbound here on cnbc. happy friday. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen. this morning, we are looking at spacecraft orion. we were talking about the same story at this time yesterday. after multiple attempts, that launch was scrubbed due to serious issues. but first, three other stories on our radar, the november employment report is due out at 8:00 a.m. eastern. the unemployment rate is seen

holding steady at 5.8%. and corporate news, cbs is still on dish network this morning. the two sides failing to reach a deal by last night's deadline. it will continue to be distributed by dish while negotiations continue. and sprb president obama will be announcing his -- for a new secretary of defense today. andrew, good morning. >> thank you, becky. stocks to watch this morning, discount retailer five below offering a disappointing sales outlook for its keep holiday quarter. the company naming its new ceo. gap, better than expected sales. big drive, its old navy brands. and then american eagle outfitters warning its holiday quarter earnings will fall short of estimates. the teen retailer sales weak mall traffic and online competition is hurting and then there's the result that the cooper company is missing wall

street's mark. and fiber optics company is posting earnings and revenue blow estimates. among the reason they say weaker demand for telecom products and wiresless application receivers. then there's smith and wesson. the company says softer demand for guns continuing to hurt the bottom line. instead of tasting very good, what dew like better, cavee even or -- >> wait a secretary. cavene high suggests you get a high and you crash. >> we'll see. the stock trading near all-time highs. what i would like to remember is when howard shurlts came back to fix things and where the stock was. wasn't it about 25 or something and the b a ristas were rude?

alex bald whip got in a fight with them or something. manager makes a difference. the coffee giant unveiling a plan. even alcoholic beverages, mobile ordering and a delivery service, the company's goal is to nearly double annual revenue by 2019, which would be no small feat. you can see it's 81. as a result, it got down to single digits at one point, didn't it, in the last ten years? i think. or teens, anyway. and, you know, eventually, he had sort of moved into philanthropy and had some other things going on. how long is that chart that we've got? i think that might -- okay. that's only -- what is that? that's only a one year. all right. maybe we can eventually call

that up. we should be able to do this quickly. >> it's coming. bringing it. >> was it about three years ago? do you remember, was it three or four years ago? >> time flies, yeah. >> it was way longer than that. >> it might be longer than that. >> mine is froeden, too. we're having some issues with the computers this morning. in the meantime, let's take a look at what's happening with the markets this morning. you'll see the features at this point are indicated slightly higher. sps up by about 9 points and -- or s&p futures up by 3 points and the nasdaq up by about 9 points. in europe in early trade this morning, already you see some strong gains both for germany and france. kashg up by 1.2%. and in asia overnight, the nikkei ended up slightly.

hang seng up by 0.7%. oil prices, wti is below $67 a barrel. $66.33. if you thought it couldn't go lower, you were wrong. the bond market at this point has a yield on the ten-year. the dollar this morning, at least at this point, looks like -- it's up against the yen, up against the euro which is at 1. 1.236. a lot of talk, but not a lot of action. gold prices at this hour look down by about four bucks. >> before you go, howard shurlts, january 2008. >> oh, my god. so six years. >> six years. do you have the price? >> i do not have the price. and the big question once we do

the math is going to be how did starbucks do relative to the market. they clearly outperformed the market in a major, major way. >> october 2008? what did you say, january 2008? >> they're continue to go drop. >> and i remember the narrative was that there are so many starbucks, that they're on adjacent corners so they're cannibalizing each other and there's no way to fix this thing. and he comes back in and says i'm going to do this, this and this. then they had some bad experiences with sandwiches. the food smells, remember that? >> yeah. >> do you have a market cap currently? it's up ten times in value in market cap. what is the market cap now? it's pretty amazing that he was able to --

>> market cap is now $60 billion. >> how is that possible? >> that is amazing. >> good management. >> it is. >> believe it or not, jimmy rogers giving all of his long calls that have lasted forever at this point in terms of bonds and commodities. he said at one point that coffee was -- when was this? in the early '90s. >> 1971. >> he didn't found green mountain. he bought the original one, did he? or did he -- >> i think there might have been one, but the idea of turning into a chain is one of those. >> and a chain like this. >> he went to allen and he said i want to put coffee on every corner. allen went home and told his wife this is the most idiotic

thing. of course he said pad. >> no. that is a good allen story, one that i like. >> we'll see if we're going to put up a dow chart ten years from now and it will look like that. the market is focusing on the jobs report due out. the s&p 500 looking to increase its winning streak. covering the economic angle, steven rushido, chief economist at zuhou. >> look how they do it for me. i just want -- give me -- >> give you credit? no. put the name in. mizuhou. all right. let me start with you. on this. because i figured, number one,

i'm going to have to -- we're making some predictions after this today. did you know that? >> yes. i'm doing mine on monday. >> you get two more days to think about it? >> yes. i want to see what you have to say and then i can come up with mine. >> here is what i'm thinking. i don't know whether i should waste them now and actually tell, but here is what i'm thinking, ed. we're at zero in this country and we haven't even started to raise rates. i figure next year, capital will continue to come in here. once we start raising, think about the differential and yields should make our dollar even stronger theoretically. same saying maybe the market continues to do better and maybe the saudis stabilize it at 60. >> i think that's a pretty good call. >> really? >> yeah. the united states is our

favorite place to be. so i think we're going to have probably another good year next year. eventual eye valuations will limit. but with interest rates as low as they are, and i think a very positive economic back drop in the united states with the stronger dollar, with stronger growth even before those started. i think we're going to have a pretty good year again next year. >> steven, you may have some work some move of my predictions on you. the economy has done this well without washington becoming friends with each other. i don't think that necessarily gets much better when both sides double down. i can the gop is going to be mad because of this immigration thing. the president a this point has shown no willingness in the past to abandon any of his corporal. but the market has done this well without that and continues to do well without any help. not the market, the me. is that what you think?

>> they will continue to put in what we've been having over the last several years. there is no reason to expect that to change. >> what about the three? >> i can its goes back to the question in terms of the currency. there are a couple of things to keep in mind with regard to that. does europe avoid deflation? if not, your haven't isy story goes the opposite direction for you. deflation leads to a stronger euro. right now, the bet is that the ecb is going to win on deflation. if the currency stories going exactly the opposite, this is exactly what happens in japan, why the yen moved from over 300 all the way back down to 80 and its long appreciation product. now everyone is betting deflation doesn't take hold in europe. but to be honest with you, given

the way europe is going, you have to be very careful. >> you know, even if you think about it, a year ago this time, everyone was telling you, europe is going to be the story of 2014, right? germany was going to pull europe out of the slight. we were looking at deflation in europe at about 1, 1.25%. so the answer is six months is maybe all we need. that is how touchy this situation is and that's why i think you have to be careful of some of those beds. that doesn't necessarily mean the financial flows are going to move. what really happens in that environment is you have to question whether or not you want to be in that space, especially if you have policy principal sit take hold in europe. policy paralysis. we have a proactive policy

standpoint. it doesn't necessarily go against your story about the economics and the economy because it holds the fed off from raising rates. >> here is the other thing i was thinking. what becca patterson was talking about how strong dollar hurts our exports. i think $60 oil allows manufacturing to mrourish, anyway. is europe that important for us to export to europe can it can hurt our growth at this point? >>. >> energy is an important commodity. >> that's it. the dollar stays strong. they've got all kinds of structural problems that we know about in these countries. then even in the good countries, like germany that has its

economics together, they're thrown together with this hodgepodge trying to use these same interest rates and the whole thing is jury r-rigged. it's never going to work. >> europe has been meandering for years and the deflationary pressures are accumulating globally. that is one of the big problems. >> 20 minutes, becky. >> now you've thoroughly confused me. i have no idea what i'm going to do. >> no one will know what to do and that way they can't see if i'm right or wrong. >> surprises. >> it's so unlikely, most of them don't come true. but just put them out there. >> so dour about europe. >> i am dour about europe. >> if he's right, is there any way to turn it around? >> yeah, go there.

>> you're making it up. >> when the euro is worth a dollar, go there. >> mario draghi is running things. there is still a chance. >> it's a political issue more than any other. i think temperature survival of the euro is -- >> can we do anything more than talk, though? >> i think he is trying very hard to put a coalition together to do more aggressive policy. >> yesterday it sounded like they were pushing it off further and further. >> it's technically much more difficult to do qe with all the different nations. so it's not an easy problem, politically or economically. i guess i'm more optimistic will the future of europe. from an investment point of view, even though we are cautious short-term, it's rel

cheap relative to the united states. i think you're better off paying the more consistent growth in the united states. there will come a time when you get a better bang for your buck on the investment perspective. >> steven englander is the global head of strad strategy at citi. where would you be placing your betts for the next year? >> i would place them on the long dollar. in fact, i disagree with steve because i really think that the issue isn't whether europe is in deflation or not or what the interest rate is. the issue is the measures that the europeans are going to take to get themselves out of deflation. right now, the only policy tools they are is money printing. they disappointed the markets yesterday be being more tentative about the schedule. all of the indications are they are going to get.

his focus was on hitting their mandate and the lower oil prices are going to do a lot of damage to the inflation numbers in the coming months. i would say that, you know, the strong dollar on the trade base just isn't that strong. we're up maybe 5%, 6% since the beginning of the year because we don't trade as much with japan as we do with china. and conversely, the euro isn't as weak when it seems when you look at the move against the dollar. the trading partners have done almost as poorly and in some cases worse than they have. i think there's a lot more policy to come. >> that is my question. they haven't been that -- if we were overly impressed with both of thoughts moves, does that mean there's much further to go? or are you saying that they're already -- is that what you're saying? >> yeah, all of the above.

i think the evidence that we have is that the dollar seems to be respond to go catch rates. the two-year differential versus the basis points, not the 100 yield curve. it could go a lot further. i think europe's problems by the depreciation that they've had. >> will they have really be able to embrace reinflating? i think germany, since they're in the driver's seat, they're still so worried about inflation, i was thinking about draghi or the ecb. when they're tight, they always seem to say tight for way too long. remember the last time around? they stayed way too tight. some people thought that was great. but others said, this guy, they drag their feet.

are they still thinking about the wheelbarrow full of money? >> i think the incident isn't ten-day putting enough liquidity into the system. what they're trying to do now is to find ways of getting money directly to borrowers. >> it doesn't mean the corner growth is going to get be able to borrow. so their battle is to keep europe afloat until they can get the mechanism in place to make monetary policy more effective. so i think that right now, the policy is absolutely focused on the exchange rate. that's the only way of avoiding deflation. though think longer term, get the monetary mechanism to work. >> your number today? >> 200. we're right there.

>> can i ask you quickly, you've been right for a long time about the markets. you've been very bullish. are you equally optimistic looking at 2015? >> i am. i think we'll see another year of double digit gains. this market lasts forever. eventually we will have to make a transition into a lower return environment. i think we have at least another year to go, maybe more than that. >> good to hear. thank you all for joining us this morning. >> thank you. when we come back, ibm firing back at its critics. people around this table i know, including myself, the cfo making his argument today. we will bring you that debate when "squawk box" returns in just a moment. according to str and tourism somethings, demand for lodging is on the rise. and with hotel occupancy at its highest level in decades, the rate for a one-night state is expected to rise next year.

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back now with today's travelers check. on average, how much will travelers pay per night for a hotel in 2015? $121, a 5% increase from last year.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. ibm has been facing criticism for its buyback strategy. abm's cfo is responding. he writes in part, we are stewards of our shareholders capital. this makes us a supportable investment is to invest to earn profit, not just revenue. but fund our investments and our return of capital through the creation of profits. in the case of ibm, we are no longer raising additional capital equity. ibm has managed to do both. the question, though, therefore, becomes if they had used that capital instead of for buy backs for other things, would they be in batter position? >> this isn't addressing the problem. people aren't against necessarily buying back stock. if your revenue res driving. i forget the metric and i'm not

going to say it. but in terms of revenue, it's below where it was like five years ago. >> they're getting rid of the stuff that doesn't make it nonprofitable. >> some people that i respect listen to her plan when she was on with "squawk on the street." and they said they bought into it. if you tell me whether ibm has the right strategy for the cloud, i have no idea. >> you don't want a lot of the stuff that's basically -- you're just spinning your wheels with. >> you definitely don't want the company to be shrinking and the only way you're getting earnings is by -- >> this is addressed to some degree, but not completely. >> has it gone anywhere since the big sell-off?

>> it's about 163, 160 something. >> we'll see. if at first you don't succeed, try again. nasa is on track to launch orion yesterday. jane wells. i'm glad they didn't tell you it could be every 10 minutes yesterday so you weren't standing there overnight. were you? you slept somewhere, right? >> yes, i did. i did sleep, but everybody is excited. currently everything is a go for liftoff at 7:05 eastern. this will be take two of this first test, an unmanned test to test all the critical systems of a craft that could eventually take human toes mars. what we do not want to see is a repeat of yesterday, this, seeing the orion sitting on that launchpad for a full day.

rain, clouds, winds, but right now, the weather is good to go. another problem, have the rocket scientists solved yesterday's rocket problem? the launch was scrubbed because the delta iv heavy sat out here so long due to wind delays and that boat that got in the way, that the liquid hydrogen fuel that got in the tanks, negative 424 degrees fahrenheit, it caused a couple of valves to get sluggish and they wouldn't close. they have to close before you lift off. >> this is something that we have seen on one previous heavy launch where we had a long window and had gone into it. so we're off today, going to execute the same procedures that we did after that last attempt and very confident that we're going to be able to exonerate the hardware and make an attempt. >> you're looking at a live picture now of the orien and delta rock out there. we're waiting to see if this

happens. he has said this has happened before with the delta iv. some were asking if maybe the valves are an actual problem. the valve has worked perfectly many times. we'll have to see what happens at 7:05 been let's hope the weather holds. the launch lasts until 9:44 this morning. if they don't lift off today, they've only rented the launchpad through tomorrow, but they won't be able to launch tomorrow because they need to get more fuel truck necessary here. so they may try to stay here through sunday, but after that they may be out of luck for a while because of support personnel issue for other launches that are planned. back to you. >> that's news to me, who do they represent it from? >> you rent it from cape canaveral. this is cape canaveral, an air force property. so you negotiate for days when they have support personnel to help you with the launch. >> jane, i'm just wondering, for a while, that entire area down

there had kind of gone from boom to sort of -- things had slowed down around there because -- >> yeah. >> has it bounced off the lows? is it better now? the diners, just across the board it had slowed down. >> nats sa still tried to support an infrastructure here. they didn't have a lot to do after the shuttle program went away. spacex has a launchpad that it uses, too. there is this, of course, the orion project, along with the sls which will be what launches next time. a lot of money. a lot of work.

>> and that is the biggest building in the world, right? >> are you tacking about the assembly building? >> yes. >> and when it's lit up, it has this tremendous american flag on the side. i'm not sure if it's the largest building in the world. you're like, wow, i'm glad it's mine. >> you see big birds flying around out there. >> i have a story about that. they have vultures. on the top of that building, it's apparently a disgusting site. eagles or whoever, birds of prey will take their kill there to let it dry out and get back to it later. >> ooh. kind of like jerksy. >> yuck. >> yes. >> fried meat. from the sun. yum. yum. >> by the way, the vehicle assembly building is one of the large echt buildings in the world by volume, one of. >> i've been there. seen it. cool. very cool.

that's why i remember. you look up and you can't appreciate how big it is until you realize those are big birds. >> and you think you're getting close to it and you still have ten miles to go. >> jane, don't mess this up today, please. we want to do it. >> you got it. the largest single story in the world was the tallest building in 1974. it is still the tallest building in the united states out of an urban area. up next, millions of americans are now quitting their jobs. is that the best sign yet that the economy is getting better? we will talk to the head hauncho of one of the top headhunters after the break. plus -- is that man ready to throw his hat into the ring? we are seeing signs that mitt romney wants to make another run at the white house. follow the money, when "squawk box" returns.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we have been struck by a new statistic. check out this cover of "usa today." it says nearly 2.8 million americans quit their jobs in september. that's the most since the spring of 2008, reflecting a strengthening economy. here to talk about the job picture as cross america, good morning to you. >> good morning to you. >> you put together an interesting list of where the jobs are. but this is kind of a high end

list. it's a list of where the jobs are. >> yeah, i think the strengthening economy and the fact that companies realize that they can no longer cut costs on their way to prosperity. it involves the chief inme vafb officer. we see a lot of upward pressure on those companies and positions where growth is the factor. >> is there like a title inflation going on? it used to be when you had somebody who was in charge of technology. now they sort of have these other sort of much fancier titles. or how the role unto itself changed? >> no, i think it's a role unto itself. i think it's increasing a reflection of the title. >> don't a lot of them report to

the board at this point, too? if you're concerned about security, that's a position that people are saying, this needs to be somebody who directly reports to the board. >> do you have any sense, by the way, on what jobs are getting paid these days? >> i think compensation in general is going up. in the strength of the economy and the growing economy, there's a lot of supply/demand. i think we will see compensation along with them. >> one of them is chief sustainability officer. >> that's correct. >> what does that mean exactly? >> that's all about how you can sustain growth and you sustain the use of energy and resources within the organization. >> but let's go through some of the industries as we have them on the screen here. >> diver security risk

management, risk management and security. are we putting those in the right order? >> i'm mott sure there's any particular order. i think we're all in growth mode. social media is a hot area. 1.0 social media. 2.0 is when companies begin to take control of their own social networks. it's goes to disrupt the business situation. >> bob, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> good job. appreciate it. >> bob dam in. >> what did i say? >> watered out question. >> oh, you thought -- >> matt damon? >> no. >> i've got to look at things more closely. >> healthywater.org. that's all. i knew it wasn't --

up next, uber gets a huge number on its valuation. plus, amazon has its own brand of diapers. is this a smart business move or is the e-commerce giant stretching too far? and a possible major market mover. first, though, a quick check off what's happening. green arrows across the board. gains of 1.6% both in france and in germany. financial noise financial noise financial noise come from all walks of life.

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welcome back to "squawk box." uber now reportedly in talks to sell more than $1 billion in convertible debt. this comes just after the ride sharing service raised $1.2

billion in its latest funding round. the headline here, the funding value of the start up, now $40 billion. just $18 billion six months ago. >> about $18 billion was completely and utterly not -- >> yeah. >> we'll see. >> we should tell you about amazon. it's entering a new category, it's own line of diaperes and baby wipes. the new line is called amazon elements. one analysts notes this could bring tougher competition for companies like procter & gamble. it's a risk when you get into areas like diapers. that's something parents will tend to pay up for. i tried these green diapers one time on kyle, they were supposed to be good for the environment. >> green in color? >> no, green for the environment. >> they started green. i've changed green diapers -- >> they gave him a rash on his rear end. i never used anything but huggies again after that, ever. >> all right. i like diaper -- >> rashes? >> no, no.

i like diaper analogies. >> yeah. >> like hearing about things like that. so they're not made out of something green, they're supposed to seal -- >> no, they're supposed to be ecologically better. >> why don't you just use cotton and wash them every time if you want to -- >> why don't you. >> yeah, right. that's it. >> dip them in the toilet, wash them, flush them, put them in the washer, put them in the dryer. >> you've tried that? that is tmi right there. tomorrow in san francisco, massive cancer conference gets under way called ash, which is sort for the american society of hematology. a host of big name stocks will be moving on the data from this gathering. meg terrell is here to tell us why pharma .biotech investors are paying close attention. before you do, how interested were you in this piece on super

survivors, all about what you have brought us many times, and that is this new crest of drugs that ramps up someone's immune system. it's a fascinating piece on the front page continued on a-10 about people that were goners. they tried this experimental stuff and some of them have been alive ten years. i'm sure immunotherapy will be part of tomorrow's conference. >> this year, a.s.h. is shaping up to be a big deal. a lot of the same themes like immunotherapy. they're working pb-1 inhibiters which harness the system to fight cancer. another approach is ramping up t-cells to better i've and fight cancer and giving the blood back. this has been some amazing results. it's early, but companies like novartis are working in this space and there are a lot of smaller companies working in this space, as well. there's targeted therapies like

pharmaceuticals and cyclicals. we're seeing those getting new data. gene therapy is an interesting area in some blood disorders, seeing companies like bluebird. a lot of these high biotech companies will be moving. cellgene is a huge cancer company that has partnered with a lot of these smaller biotechs. you're seeing companies having data and you can also play this through cellgene. that is what everybody is watching. >> bluebird is only a $1.2 million market cap. does that make it a target for the bigger companies? >> absolutely. all of these biotechs probably are. but they're so overly -- it's a high risk for anybody to buy it this early, but i think everybody would say these companies are potentially targets. >> when you think about it, and i know you know this, but it's almost more amazing that we all don't get cancer than people do

get cancer. when you think about how often each cell replicates itself and how many things have to go right with each base pair and things always go wrong, you normally see it and you cut it out and you repair it. as you get older, that process seems to become less effective. >> that's what they say is that at some point if you get old enough, unfortunately probably everybody would get cancer. >> but normally your immune system sees it and stamps it out. it's non-self, this is not normal, the glycoproteins are there or whatever and it gets rid of it. if you can ramp up the immune system or almost tip off the immune system, that this is here and you can pretty much handle your own cancer. >> right. and instead of trying to kel it and kill your other cells with chemotherapy, you can harness this system. >> should be exciting and we're so kwlad you're here because you're excited about it. >> that, too.

coming up, we are going to fast forward to 2016. why wall street backers are singing mitt romney's praises. we'll see what that all means in just a moment when "squawk box" returns. no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable.

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we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable. . talking politics now. buzz is building that maybe mitt romney is ready to do it again, run for president in 2016. multiple reports he's been meeting with big donors in new york. could the third time be the charm? joining us now is politico chief

correspondent and also a cnbc contributor. one thing i've been hearing for -- i don't know if it's a whole year, ben -- is that you need to think long and hard between buyers remorse and launching a new campaign and whether the outcome would be different. there's a lot of people going, wow, romney that first debate, how presidential he seemed. that's different than beating hillary in 2016. that was a pretty crappy campaign that was run, wasn't it? >> yeah. made some mistakes. >> i had people made mistakes. etch-a-sketchs and not addressing private equity and hiding and doing rope a dope on the next two debates. >> maybe they learned from their mistakes. the point of this recent change in tone is that romney is going around to wall street folks and telling them keep your powder dry. if you haven't found a candidate you love yet --

>> why is he in the lead in polls? >> name i.d. mainly. the fact of the matter is he sees himself as the leader of the establishment republican party. he doesn't think anybody in the field right now and even if jeb bush gets in, he doesn't think he's the leader. >> why not? >> there's a history with the bush family there and the romneys. >> oh, yeah? >> tell us more. >> i'm not going to get into their personal issues. >> why not? >> because i don't know them well enough to discuss them openly. >> you're suggesting there's a history. we need to know about the history. >> the important part of the history is he is not going to be differential to jeb bush. >> what did the president do? something happened happened. >> now you're going to press me on the personal issues. and all i know is what "the wall street journal" people told us. >> wait a second. none of these guys who have been competitors probably like each other anyway. >> to some degree, yeah. but there's also -- there's big

family tectonic plates. >> that's what we're trying to come back to. >> you keep coming back to it and teasing us. do some reporting and then come back to us. >> sure. the report is on mitt and the way he changed tone on this. now it looks like the stars are not aligned and he might go. >> his wife has said no way. we don't want to do this, our family doesn't want to do this. >> that happens a lot. i think she's being supportive. >> i thought i read in your piece it's not any longer that if you can't find somebody else, i'm here. that it's i'm already here. are we somewhere in between there? >> i think we're closer to you haven't found anyone else and it would be me. >> so straight up then, who's more electable? jeb or mitt?

>> that's a good question. they both come from the same sort of centrist base. i think between the two of them, you know, they both have negatives. romney not a great campaign last time around. jeb bush is, do we want another bush? maybe jeb is little bit more electable in an election with hillary. >> do crazy nobody dark horses just come out of the democratic party? that's where it's happened before. i've seen a board with 24 possible republican candidates on it, and it doesn't seem to happen that way. obviously hillary clinton isn't. jimmy carter came out of nowhere. barack obama. they all made it. and the iraq war for obama. does that not happen? the only -- i saw an interview with bobby jindal. that guy is smart and smooth and said all the -- i was ready to vote for him today. he doesn't have a chance of getting the nomination. >> he doesn't.

the republican party almost always nominates the heir apparent next up. there isn't one right now. mitt has already done it, but he is the de facto leader of the party. in the tradition of the republican party, it would be one of them. >> we've got to run, but if it's jeb, mitt, chris christie, who does wall street support? >> i think there will be enough money for all of those three, but probably jeb, mitt, then christie third. >> ben, great to see you. >> always a pleasure. when we come back this morning, the dow creeps closer to 18,000. and we are getting closer to an orion countdown. nasa said it is a go for 7:05 in terms of a launch. we'll bring it to you live when "squawk box" comes right back.

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jobs friday. going to look at november employment data. will it be enough to push the dow over 18,000? and russian president warning his people of tough times ahead under pressure from low oil prices and a plummeting ruble. geopolitical expert david gordon details the weapons remaining in russia's economic arsenal. and a record year for dairy farmers. >> time for milking. >> morgan brennan on a wisconsin dairy farm. she'll tell us why cheese and dairy have been so profitable this year. the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box"

here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we're counting down to the jobs numbers. 230,000 jobs last month. we'll see what happens here. would be nice to get a great number, dollar would strengthen and stock market would go up if that happens. we need growth. i want growth. the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.8%. we're starting to hear some anecdotal evidence people are getting better jobs. which was one of the problems. no one had the nerve for the last couple of years to tell their employer -- there was nowhere else to look. >> they're going to watch the average hourly earnings too. >> and is this you? >> still you. >> because i can sell this. i remember we used to blog about things. once david faber wrote a famous

piece -- do you remember that? >> i do. >> he didn't like to do it very much. >> you know you used to struggle with those blogs too. >> his entire blog was it's very exciting to see a rocket ship launch. and it is. and it continues to be. and we're waiting if they are launch of nasa's orion spacecraft expected in when four minutes. it was scrubbed a couple of times yesterday. if you were watching the show, you remember after several problems including the wind and the weather. but then it was a fuel -- >> there was a guy in a boat to get out of the way too. >> yes. and there were fish jumping around. we'll bring you the launch live if it happens. don't leave us. could be happening in a couple minutes. >> that david faber blog was probably over ten years ago. >> it was, but it was so funny. because he kind of wanted it out of the way. >> i'm not sure we had blogs. >> this was literally ten years ago. >> you were a glimmer in your

mother's eye when this went on. but he finally just said, you know what? this is all you're getting. it's exciting to see a rocket ship take off. >> and it is. >> you're right. >> and we will try to show you that in just a little bit. hopefully it will take off this morning. in the meantime, headlines for you. honda says it's expanding its u.s. recall. 3 million additional cars that contain potentially defective air bags made by takata. also discount dollar tree plans to buy family dollar as early as february. it does not require more and that was a big issue in that deal. and think the canadian government has approved burger king's deal to buy the tim horton's chain for more than $10.5 billion in cash and stock. transaction still needs to be approved by shareholders. but of course the canadians were going to approve this. this wasn't the sort of elizabeth warren version of

this. >> it was set up to appease the canadians. >> it was set up solely for them to improve it. >> you're the only person who cares if burger king leaves. i don't care what burger king does. i don't eat there. >> the whopper is great. >> they spray some gross stuff on it. >> the fries are great too. mcdonald's fries win, but anyway. we're going to go back to cape canaveral right now because jane wells is going to join us where the orion spacecraft is counting down to the launch. and jane, take it away. >> andrew, we're 47 seconds away from launch. everything looks good at this point. this is the furthest we've gotten so far. once it takes off in about 40 seconds, the first seven minutes are critical. there will be millions of pounds of thrust. those rockets will reach mach 1. we're about to let nasa take over as this, the first spacecraft to go higher than

anyone capable of carrying humans has done in 42 years in this critical un-manned test. >> the igniters have been lit. >> ten, nine, eight, seven, six -- >> five, four, three, two, one. and liftoff. at dawn. the dawn of orion and a new era of american space exploration. >> passing 25 seconds. velocity 1441 feet per second. passing 31 seconds. still looking good. good engine control. good chamber pressure in all three boosters in the full power

mode. 40 seconds in. standing by to go to the partial thrust mode. and we have partial thrust command in the four. core pressure expected to drop on the one-minute mark. one minute into flight. still looking good. good chamber pressure in the core -- >> any second now you will see the outer booster rockets fall away. the rocket has now reached mach 1 speeds. you're now going to have the separation and pretty soon you will see the first critical test, the launch of system. this will be a critical part of future trips. but what it would show is it would allow the crew to escape

on launch on liftoff if there was a problem. this for the lockheed martin manager are the most critical minutes. can this get orion into the right altitude for its first rotation around the earth, its first orbit around the earth. that will take a couple of hours. then the second trip around the earth will take orion to an altitude of 3600 miles. that is 15 times higher -- oh, you can see the curvature of the earth now. 15 times higher than the international space station so that it can begin a very high speed descent to earth. 20,000 miles an hour. so the heat shield can be tested at 4,000 degrees handing in the pacific four and a half hours from now.

at 2:35 in. we should have the reaction control system activated. you're hearing nasa tv there. at approximately five minutes after launch two minutes from now, it will enter its first high radiation -- excuse me. it will reach -- >> still looking good. >> it will be reaching its -- the desired altitude as it begins its first orbit. >> 3:16 in. good engine control. >> we will have a stage one separation here in two minutes. >> 3:30 in. we're standing by for the partial thrust mode in the boosters.

>> all right. if you wait in just about 15 more seconds, guys, you're going to see the -- you're going to see something. you'll see the star board boosters core jetisen. >> main engine cutoff. we have cutoff. >> gosh. there they go. there they go. >> good separation of the boosters. four booster now powering up to full power mode. >> all right, guys. back to you. we will keep you posted as this flight continues, this historic flight of the first capsule capable of carrying humans which will go higher today than any has the apollo missions, we hope. we will know that in a few hours. back to you. >> in watching that and being nervous, and once again faber was right long ago. that was very exciting to watch. but we've done it a bunch -- i

mean, i don't know how many shuttle flights were, through there were a lot. is the technology with the boosters and everything else, is it totally different. was there reason to think that there was, you know, a lot of uncertainty as the weather -- we would pull it off this time? or was it sort of similar in terms of the thrusters that are initially taken up? >> it's not totally different. this is not a new rocket. what would be more interesting would be the second test mission they're going to do with this in 2017 or 2018. that will be a brand new rocket which will be more powerful. >> so it was not -- so. okay. so it wasn't like the first time we've done it. we've done hundreds of flights, right? >> oh, no, no, no. well, this particular rocket has launched seven times before. this was its eighth launch. >> okay, good. >> i got the tell you guys, it was amazing being here. just amazing being here. just the rattle, everything. it was fantastic. >> you could feel the earth move, right?

>> yeah. you could feel it, for sure. >> cool. all right. thank you, jane wells. good job. finally, jane. >> i'm glad we stayed with it. the pictures at the end, you think b of everything being so peaceful and calm and quiet. but those were some violent pictures with the launchers. as the countdown to the jobs report goes, let's get to dom chu with a look at the sectors likely to move after the employment numbers. regardless of what it is, certain sectors react? >> first of all, i don't know how i'm supposed to follow jane wells doing a rocket launch. i don't think anybody does a play-by-play better on cable news than jane wells. let's talk about the jobs report. an investment group looked at the last two years of monthly job reports and looked at the s&p 500. asked which sectors do well, say, if we beat the expectations for jobs. right? so we look at one-day changes. the single best performing

sector on the s&p 500 if we get a better jobs number than expected is the financials sector. it's up by almost a percent if we get a better number. second place almost just as good. industrial stocks up about .9%. and materials up almost that amount as well. cyclical and tend to do well if we get a better jobs number. that makes sense. which ones do the worst if we miss the jobs number? technology quite flat. financials, the same. discretional almost cyclical. if we get a worse than expected jobs number, these are the sectors that get impacted the most here. over the past couple of years, recent history at least here, this is the kind of market that we've had. a biased one toward the upside. that's why none of these are negative, per se. and just for a little bit more color, we asked our partners over at kensho about which

particular stocks tend to be winners and losers in the s&p -- not in the s&p but the large cap overall. and mohawk industries, they make flooring, they're nearly 2% on average over the past 23 jobs reports. and they're positive 95% of the time. ensc o positive 96% of the time. become over to you guys. >> thank you very much. the dow taking aim at the 18,000 mark, but how much tolerance will markets have for an overly strong or weak jobs number today? joining us now is chief investment officer at private bank. gentlemen, welcome to both of you. jim, i know that you have been fairly positive on the markets. we're looking at 18,000 snoupz th -- now. is this what you expected and what happens next? >> i thought the market, becky, would come up to the 2,000 area

last year and then thought it may struggle therough the rest f the year. it's gone a little bit higher than that now. i think right now we're in a goldilocks period. we've got a day after day good reports on the economy, suggesting real growth in the united states is accelerating. and we've got no inflation or interest rate pressures whatsoever that show up. the market could go quite a bit higher. i am suspicious as we move towards full employment here that if we grow in excess of 3% without throwing up some wage pressures, fear or evidence of inflation picking up, and i think the market may struggle with that eventually. but right now it's a one-way freight train north, i think. >> may struggle with that eventually. that's a longer term picture, though, right? >> i think next year is going to be a little bit more challenging. i don't -- i don't -- i think

the year may be flat overall, but i think it's going to be volatile. we may have some pullbacks. i just think, you know, to me there's three things that bug me. we probably have the calmest most confident sentiment of any time in this recovery. i think it's not giddy but it's calmer thanst ever been. it has been against a big dose of fear. and i think that's kind of dissipated. secondly, you know, market is risen 50% in the last three years from about 12 times earnings to 18 times earnings. that's a big increase in values in a short order. and then i think we're going to start resetting interest rates next year. and i just think it's hard to suggest we move away from zero interest rates in this massive program. i think it's going to be a little bit more turbulent next year, more challenging than what most seem to think at the moment.

>> zach, how about you? there's certainly an argument that the market's come a long way very quickly. but you also have the comparisons with what's happening around the globe. >> right. and i had to agree with jim. we're both looking at the same data. fundamentals are fantastic. i think the only thing i would maybe quibble with is that credit spreads are beginning to widen a little bit. it appears that lenders are starting to pull back their horns. this is a -- something that went negative in 2007 about a year or so before we had the turbulence in 2008. but beyond that, certainly economic backdrop is great. i think the jobs situation is looking very good. having artificially low interest rates whether it was for the fed or foreign buyers, it will ultimately some day end with two hot inflation coming along the way. i don't know when. i've been waiting for it for awhile. but the key is valuation. i think valuation is the

market's biggest headwind. and i'm looking for a single digit return next year. unfortunately i don't know what the sign is. is it going to be positive? is it going to be negative? it's going to be pretty flat, but it could be in the negative territory next year. >> we have the jobs report coming up in less than an hour and 15 minutes. jack, what are you expecting? jim, same question. >> i'm calling for 238,000 private payroll jobs. it's a little bit better than economists forecast. >> jim? >> i'm right around the 230 number. i think more important, becky, is going to be how much more does the unemployment rate drop and what does that average hourly earnings number do. if we continue to get drops to the unemployment rate that's going to start to change mind-sets on wall street. >> in terms of where the fed moves, you mean? >> and quit rate, for example.

it just spiked. you know, i think we're finally starting to see employees emboldened in their jobs. i think it's not far they're going to start to grow. >> great talking to you. >> thanks. coming up, vladimir putin warning his nation of tough time ace head. david gordon is going to join us next on how the sharply falling ruble can cripple the russian economy. we're going to talk about that and a lot more in just a moment when "squawk" returns. will that be all, sir?

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comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "squawk box." the ruble having a rough few weeks. the dow is up 15% against the russian currency. meanwhile oil prices, they just keep falling. down more than 10% over the last 30 days. a topic we've talked a lot about on "squawk box" recently. joining us now is david gordon. his first time back with cnbc since taking his new role as president. good morning to you. >> how are you, andrew? >> i'm great. mr. putin less so, i imagine. what do you make of his recent comments? and what can he do about the oil price situation? >> well, he can't do very much. and that's his problem here. that the russians were unwilling to sort of decide with the saudis and others cutting back. so the saudis have said we're

not going to take any crude off the market and prices are going to fall. and putin is stuck with that. he has to manage it rather than affect it. >> when you say manage -- to the extent he can manage it, what does that mean? we talked to your former colleague ian bremmer just a couple days ago. do you think if prices stay where they are, what happens in russia? >> well, i think basically that the ruble's going to come under a lot of pressure. they spent some $2 billion yesterday trying to slow down the descent of the ruble. it means there's going to be more inflation. what the russians are trying to do now is to protect their foreign exchange. they've got over 300 billion so they still have a lot of room here. i think putin's going to really double down. he's going to try to, i think, find one or two speculators,

domestic people to arrest and focus on and try to stem -- >> saying i'm going to call for tough measures. i mean, he's going to lock somebody up? >> i think he's going to lock somebody up, yeah. >> locking somebody up is going to do what? >> i think it's going to potentially scare others domestically by -- from betting against the ruble. that's not going to stabilize the ruble. >> that's the point. it's not going to stabilize the ruble. so just going to score political points? >> yes. so a lot of this, putin right now is at the phase of blaming the troubles on outsiders, blaming it on the west. i think we're entering a dangerous moment here. he gave his big state of the nation speech yesterday, really focused on crimea as the homeland of the russian nation. i worry that there's a bigger chance now that he makes a more

assertive military move into beyond the don bass region in ukraine. >> he does that to distract from everything else going on? >> yeah. right now he's in distraction mode. his numbers are still very high, andrew. but that he doesn't have a mechanism now to manage the ruble directly. because all the pressure is going down, he doesn't want inflation, he's not willing to come up with a strategy. what he said yesterday in the state of the nation speech, there was no strategy there at all on -- >> real quick before we go, if you were to be his adviser, you would tell him to do what? >> i would say right now you have to spend some money in trying to minimize the downward pressure on the ruble and the silver lining for you is that things are even worse for the ukrainians.

and so you don't have to push as hard as you've been pushing. >> fair enough. david, appreciate it very much this morning. >> thank you. >> thank you. coming up, guggenheim partners as a global investment power player. $220 billion under management. and the chief investment officer scott minerd will tell us how they're putting that money to work and what he calls the dark side of falling oil prices. bre. and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep.

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there's a french fry shortage in japan. restaurants there are rushing to secure fry supplies after a dock workers' dispute on the west coast caused a month-long slowdown. the operator of restaurant chain gusto plans to fly in 200 tons of french fries.

japan is already facing a butter shortage after a heat wave in the summer stifled dairy output. that's weird. it seems like potatoes are not that hard to come by. >> also seems like in japan they wouldn't care that much if they didn't get french fries. but once you're introduced to them you love them? >> i call them freedom fries. but everybody cares about them. >> i always think of them as being a healthier society. >> a lot of fish. it is an island sort of, right? >> lot of seafood there. when we come back this morning, if you need to job look to the sky. our ongoing series where the jobs are is next. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. are all the green lights you? no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. jpmorgan keeping the title top ranked investment bank during the first three quarters of the year. it's now raked in $17 billion in revenue so far. goldman sachs taking the second spot.

also canada giving the green light to burger king's purchase of tim horton's after that inversion deal closes. i don't know if we want to call it an inversion. on the line there. the new company will be based north of the board e. and apple trying to get a digital music lawsuit dismissed. the new evidence shows two of the plaintiffs didn't purchase ipod models covered by this large class action lawsuit. a wave of retirements would royal the skies in this installment of where the jobs are, we look how generational shift is creating new demand for air traffic controllers. we're joined from long island with more. mary? >> i'm inside the college's simulator. you're seeing a replica of vancouver airport. it's here the students train, they learn how to assist the planes to take off and land at the three runways. over the next decade the faa needs to hire 10,000 new air

traffic controllers. the people charged with monitoring more than 87,000 flights that take off and land in the united states every day. the skies may be friendly, but there's a constant need for people who keep the order. air traffic controllers. >> they have to be hired before their 31st birthday. they're required to retire at the age of 56. >> gayle runs the program at middle tennessee state university. she says demand is strong because sequestration curtailed hiring last year and because a lot of the over 14,000 controllers that work today were hired after thousands were fired in 1981. this is a professor at dowling aviation college. >> there's going to be a large number of controllers leaving by their 56th birthday. >> so the faa needs to hire over 1700 new controllers next year.

and almost 6400 in the next five. accepted applicants will go through the faa's formal training program followed by a couple years of on the job training. once certified they can earn six figures. it used to be that if you were top graduate at one of these programs you were pretty much assured a slot in the faa's air traffic controller training pra m. but that changed this year. the faa opening up the admissions process to the general public. it declined to answer any e-mails or questions about whether or not this has yielded them a better crop of candidates, but the students here of course continue with their studies hoping it will give them a leg up in getting into the air traffic controller training program. becky, back to you. >> i didn't realize the stringent requirements. you have to be hired by the age of 31? >> that's right. you have to start the program that takes place in oklahoma city. they have an academy there, the faa. and you have to be 31 by the time you start that program.

if you're 32, you're out basically. and 56, that's when you leave. you have to leave by 56. but, again, retirement age starts at 50 so you do have this turnover of all these experienced controllers. and you need them there because you need them to help train the new ones coming on as well. >> wow. all right. mary, thank you so much. great seeing you. >> sure. partners announcing a triple play this morning. mutual funds getting flagged by morning star for the first time. also guggenheim has been outperforms their peers over the past three years. with us now scott minerd, he's global cio at guggenheim. overseaing roughly $20 billion in assets. i like to think of this segment here as a sort of continuing segment on the differing opinions about what oil prices do to the world at $60. and i like your analysis which looks at some of the negatives.

and just to summarize, it puts pressure on countries like russia. >> right. >> that makes it harder for europe to recover. makes it harder for our multinationals. >> right. >> so eventually we might look like our equity markets have had their run based on lower oil prices. >> i think so, joe. i think that as oil prices continue to put pressure on prices in europe and the deflationary pressures mount, we're going to have to see the euro continue to depreciate. and as i remind people, even if mcdonald's sells as many hamburgers in paris next year as they did last year and the margins stay the same, the translation game is going to put pressure on s&p earnings. so i think by the time we get into the first quarter, perhaps maybe it will take until the second quarter before we start to see the data, people are going to start to realize that there's pressure on multinational earnings, s&p 500

earnings could stall out here. and maybe even go into reverse. and i don't think that's something that the market -- >> do you also acknowledge that there's been a nice supply component that is positive. but you're saying that the demand isn't keeping up with it. it's not necessarily the growth is slowing, but the demand isn't keeping up. and this could be self-fulfilling in terms of growth slowing over in europe. >> exactly. when you look at estimates on demand for next year, most people are expecting that oil demand will actually fall by about a million barrels a day. mostly as a result of efficiencies we've built into the system. then when you look at the united states, fracking activity is still going on. typically the average cost of a new well in fracking is somewhere between $45 and $50. so there is no incentive to reduce the increase in supply. so in a world where you sort of

have inelastic demand for energy, most people don't change that place on price. >> you also don't think that draghi is going to be able to do what's necessary to stop this. >> i don't think so. >> why? is it because germany just -- we were talking about that earlier. they're not comfortable printing money, are they? they never will be ever again. >> well, the republic sticks in their mind. >> it does. and they're a country that -- they're doing pretty well. they don't care if everybody else does. that's what's so screwed up about these multi-speed economies all under one umbrella. it doesn't work, does it? >> for the germans, this is even more about imposing discipline on the rest of europe. so, you know, their view is if they take a little bit of pain, this is good for the european union because it'll impose discipline on the peripheral

countries. >> but it's sunny and nice down there. it's not germany, right? they're all working on their porsches and everything. but there are places it's nice to be on the ol live fields. >> and the other thing people have mifs in the story is despite the fact they haven't made progress on structural reform and neither have we by the way. >> but we started going down the entitlement state path but we didn't get as far as they got. >> but we made some good progress. >> and we're seeing what happens to gdp when we do that too. >> in the long run, that'll be an interesting thing for us. but unit labor costs are going down. spain is becoming more competitive. italy is becoming more competitive. with a devalued euro and time, italy is a manufacturing company. they'll pick up some speed. but for the near term, given the

preoccupation with prices and the downward pressure, draghi has a gun to his head to find a way to increase the balance sheed. and he doesn't have enough assets to buy. >> you look other there on all the 10-year stuff in those country? >> they're amazing. >> they're like half of what they are -- and you wonder why money is coming in here. 2.3 doesn't sound great, but it's better than 1. i'm not going to say exactly where they are. >> germany's at 70. >> 70 basis points, but italy and spain are down. >> spain yields less than 2% far 10-year note. >> anybody who says they think the markets here are going to have a tough time, how do you match that up when you look at what's happening overseas? >> look, in the near term i think we're living through the short-term affect of what is like a tax cut with the decline

in gas prices. we have strong seasonals in the market right now given all the pension money that's getting invested. and the 401(k) money starts coming back. for the near term i think equities are moving higher and going to do well. but by the time we get into the first or second quarter of next year and we start to see the dark side of all of this, i think people are going to start to question whether this really is, you know, sustainable and add into that, becky, something that a lot of people are not focused on is the collapse of the polar vortex. you know, the unseasonably cold winters of last year and the beginning of this year is looking pretty cold. if you remember, we actually had a contraction in gdp in the first quarter last year. if we were to get another weak first quarter, people could start talking about recession and that sort of thing. that would certainly do some damage to the equity markets.

>> how are the dodgers going to do next year? >> win the world series. >> really? >> that easy. >> wow. all right. what happened this year? how many games do you go to? >> i probably get to about 30. >> 30 games. beautiful park. >> did you go to as many games before? >> no. but when thing i will tell you, the difference between today and going before is -- and i realized this the first time. >> better seats. >> well, they're much better seats, but it's like going to work. you know, the fans and the employees know you and you spend time with them. >> cy young and mvp? >> yes. >> pretty impressive. the last time that happened? >> don't ask me. >> doesn't mean it's not fun though, right? >> it's fun. >> what a great venue to watch. it's nice. >> come on out and join me at a game. >> wait a second. really? >> yeah. >> these guys are living the dream out there.

their offices are right over the water. then they go to the ball game when the day's over. he spends a little time at the gym. it's great. >> andrew makes my life sound like it's a vacation. >> it sounds wonderful. >> he's getting to where you're some sort of entitled one percenter. >> no, no, no. i would like to live that life. i think going to the game and hanging out at the beach -- >> part of the bitterness that comes out? >> no. this is not envy. i envy what you're doing but not in that way. >> i think andrew should work for me for awhile and see if he feels that way. >> he could be a tough boss, i think. >> i don't think you could take him. coming up, disney's big run. the stock is up more than 10% since june. and the company just announcing a dividend hike of 34%. we're going to talk to an analyst about the prospects for the house of mouse.

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welcome back, everybody. a record year for dairy farmers thanks to the combination of high prices and record low feed costs. morgan brennan joining us now. >> here in wisconsin it's what farmers are calling a perfect storm. it's record high prices coupled with those record low feed costs. and that has led to prices of allergy from raw milk to butter to cheese to hit fresh highs this year as production has slowed in every major milk producing region in the world except the u.s. now, that pushed dairy exports to their highest value ever in the first half of the year, but still not enough to meet demand. so here at mystic valley farm dairy, 400 cows produce nearly 4,200 gallons of milk each day. and that's a much needed windfall after several tough

years. >> it's allowed us to sort of do some maintenance and updating on some of our equipment that maybe didn't get to be updated when the prices weren't as good. we're going to have some money stored so we can work off of that and not have to go back in debt. >> that's really important, because prices are already starting to come off significantly for 2015. it's a class three, class four milk futures dropping around $16. that's a big drop from the recent peak of $24. so all of the milk of this farm goes to a cheese manufacturer. and ultimately ends up on your pizzas in new york city. a fun fact for you. if wisconsin were a country, it would be the fourth largest cheese producer in the world. bigger than italy. guys, back to you. >> i know it's early, but have you had any milk this morning? any cheese? >> i have not this morning, but

we got here yesterday and i have to tell you i've been going crazy on the dairy. especially the fried cheese curds. >> enjoy it while you're there. thank you. when we return, for the first time in more than a decade, barbie has been dethroned. elsa now officially from disney's "frozen" taking the number one spot on the wish list for girls. disney's stock up more than 22% today. we will talk to a disney analyst when "squawk box" returns.

welcome back to "squawk box." disney is on a tear. that stock up more than 30% over the year. and the company giving some of that money back to shareholders. all that plus the frozen doll elsa unseating barbie for the first time as the top toy of this holiday season. joining us is tony wibal who covers disney. joseph, why were you giving me a look of -- >> no reason. nailed it. >> he told me if i memorized it, it will sound right. even though the stock's on a tear, you're cautious on this stock. >> yeah. we've been saying the cost of programming is one of these things you've got to keep a bike eye on. i think the corner is missing this massive step. our numbers are actually lower

in the quarter. but the street's missing the fact there's an extra week in the fiscal year. >> do you see this as a long-term issue or just the next quarter? >> disney's good. the bet this year is on advertising. disney's your low beta bet right now. that's why it's out-performing and you have viacom on the downside. that's a reflection of the issues in the overall ecosystem. you're seeing this go with this dish and cbs dispute. >> how do you see that sort of playing out? >> everything has its roots back in netflix. at the end of the day you're having tv viewership slipping to where it can no longer cover production. rerun programming are done. you've got to invest a lot. nfl rights skoi rocketing. and so you can't afford that with just advertising and you have to get affiliate fees. but they can't keep paying a 10%

increase in fees when there's so many competitive things out there. content needs to go from point "a" to point "b". we think happens is fragmentation. i think there's going to be a group of people who will pick a bundle of content. >> and is it those people who are they never bought the package. are they people who are going to cancel their package and say i'm going to take this new cbs over the top. i'm going to buy hbo to go and netflix and create my own bundle? or they're going to be -- or cable companies or somebody else are going to start bundling this for you. i don't think i'm going to want to buy cbs, hbo, netflix separate. >> it's complicated. >> that's a fragmented world. you have those options. certain people will want to have

everything. and actually getting a cable of satellite package is the most efficient way to get everything. but for certain people, they might be fine with just a netflix and an hbo. i think about the tv ecosystem being held together with really kind of three pillars. sports, hbo, and broadcast. two of these three are talking about being able to go direct. that's a threat to the ecosystem. they also don't think there's a coincidence this centers around cbs. >> it's a longer conversation. so come on back. when we come back this morning, the wait is almost over. the november jobs report is 30 minutes away. our panel is ready for instant analysis. don't go anywhere. jobs friday is on "squawk box." that's coming up in just a moment. you're driving along,

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and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. the countdown is on. ♪ it's the final countdown nine straight months of job growth on the line. the longest stretch since 1995. >> nine times. our jobs panel is here to help guide us through the numbers.

their assessment of the labor market and what it says about the state of the economy is just ahead. will the numbers sway the fed's policy. how is the drop in oil prices affecting job growth, the consumer, and other areas of the economy? and what should you be doing about your investments as we head into the final weeks of 2014? we're going to break it down, get you the numbers, and instant reaction as a special hour of "squawk box" jobs report friday begins right now. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen. and you're looking at me. oh, no. you are looking live at the labor department in washington. you see someone just walked in front of that. if you were wondering what time it was, that is the time. exactly right now unless we're

on a delay. we're less than 30 minutes going to get the employment report. our jobs panel is ready to go as we do on every first friday unless it's some weird calendar event. usually it's the first friday of every month and we're looking at whether the jobs report is going to signal that we're breaking out of the sort of economic slowness we've been in for years. the other big development this morning that you saw live here this morning, the launch of orion, the experimental spacecraft that's going to orbit the earth twice. and travel 3600 miles into spate. then they want a fast re-entry to see if it can withstand the friction of the atmosphere. and land in the pacific ocean in about three hours from now. it was an amazing sight to watch. we watched to where the boosters broke off. they have a gopro mounted to the top of the rocket -- maybe not a

gopro. >> it showed the launcher being tossed off. >> it probably wasn't gopro, maybe it was. nasa is hoping one day this ship will carry a crew to mars. although orion is a nasa project, a development has been contracted out to lockheed martin. among the other stories on our radar morning, cbs still on dish network this morning. the two sides failing to reach a deal by last night's deadline but the network says it will continue to be distributed by dish while those negotiations continue. also president obama is going to be announcing his nominee for new secretary of defense today. it's expecting to be ashton carter. and uber now valued at more than $40 billion. it is official. it's reportedly in talks to sell more than a billion dollars in convertible debt. this coming just after the ride sharing service raised $1.2

billion in its latest funding round. six months ago it was worth $18 billion. we will see where this ends. we are less than 30 minutes from the jobs report. less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. we've been watching the futures this morning and there are some green arrows. dow futures up by about 28 points above fair value. s&p futures up by two and a half. and the nasdaq up by seven points. this comes after a slight decline yesterday. if you've been checking out what happened in europe. we have seen green arrows in europe this morning. the cac and the dax up. ftse up by .8%. this comes after draghi's comments yesterday that pushed up the euro briefly. it's down once again this morning. it's sitting around a five-year low. >> and a couple of stocks to watch this morning. let's start with american eagle outfitters. it is warning that holiday earnings will fall short of

estimates. the teen retailer says that weak mall traffic and online competition is hurting its sales. gap posted better than expected same-store sales. the big driver was old navy. the retailer recently lowered its earnings guidance. and discount retailer five below offered a disappointing outlook. the company also named a new ceo. let's get to our jobs panel. we're going to have predictions in just a minute, but right now we want to focus on the economy, the labor market, and the fed. austan goolsbee is from university of chicago school of business. i just like to remind him to be aware of milton friedman's legacy. i should have done this every time he's on. never seems to help that much. kevin hasett is a senior fellow and director of economic policies at a play where they

value enterprise and entrepreneurial spirit. the american enterprise institute. hey, mark. mark zandi is almost like the pope in terms of infallibility on his adp numbers. you go, guy. >> thank you, joe. >> yeah. amazing. and gary stern is former minneapolis fed president. welcome one and all. it's easiest for me, austin, just to go left to right and start with you. we were at the business round table, i don't know if you got to see that. these guys are like you. they're still -- the best word we got out of them was "okay" on the economy. and for 2015, for the year they're talking 2.3%, 2.4%. we're counting on 3%. where are you? >> you an the fed, no. i think we're less than 3%. i still think we're going to get some boost from the -- from lower oil prices or smaller than

people want. and i think europe, they can have as many green arrows they want today, they're going to be shot by those green arrows by the end of the year. i think europe is a huge cloud over the whole world economy. >> so that must be what you're keen on then, austan. i thought that would give a little -- it doesn't take a lot -- >> i think it will give us a little boost, i just don't think it will be that much of a boost. now we're a big oil producer. we're going to get a consumption boost but probably an investment hit. because nobody wants to invest in new oil field machinery. >> one more question then we've got to go, but what happened? are we not a 4% economy ever again? we can't even get to 3%. is something fundamentally different about us now we can't look forward to nothose solid ds every again?

>> i don't think it is ever again. though 4% was never sustainable. but over 3% is achievable, it's just going to be awhile. we can't go back to what was driving the bubble and that takes some time. >> all right. kevin, what do you think of all this? all this conjecture. is it a different place now? is the world different because the globalization that it's just too hard for us to do that now? >> no, i don't think so at all. i think that basically four of the last five quarters have been pretty good. the reason we're coming into the low twos is we had that fourth quarter. i think it's going to be pretty well. there were observations in a row above 3% except for the bad one. i think that the economy has mostly healed since the financial crisis. and a lot of the stuff holding us back after the financial crisis has more or less been healed. the long-term unemployment problem is getting better. that's a very positive sign for

next year. >> and now to someone that friedman gives a rash. mark zandi, do you have an $800 billion stimulus in your back pocket we can do again to get this economy finally moving? >> that had its day, that's why we're doing so well at this point. >> exactly. i'd agree with that. that is why we're doing so well right now. >> we don't need any more stimulus. that is what we needed in 2009. we got it. thank goodness. and it was very helpful for the economy. >> do you think the president has some actual shovel ready stuff ready now? or it would be like the shovel ready stuff we had ready back then? can we really do infrastructure now? >> i think democrats and republicans have a lot of shovel ready projects. i think infrastructure in this country is wholly inadequate. i could take a map of the united states, close my eyes, put my finger anywhere and find a project within a few miles of my finger that has a higher return than the 10-year treasury yield. >> but it would be in a state

that maybe should take care of itself and that the federal government is just too far away from to really be the person -- or the entity that does it. >> fair enough. but the federal government is a huge player in infrastructure. always has been, always will be. so we need the federal government engaged if they're going to get good rail, good airports, good everything. and i think it's bipartisan, right? i don't think that's a democratic issue. it's a democratic and republican issue. >> but there are totally different ways to approach it. we have the people on and they don't get -- they have -- they're not together on this at all how to do infrastructure. >> that's true. >> mark, if you want to do infrastructure right, just auction it off. let the private sector run it. why not sell the airports, sell the interstate highway system and let some private vendor keep it up. it would be way better than what we got? >> i think we should let a thousand flowers bloom, right? because we have many flowers we need and we should try everything and there's many ways of doing this. we should try all of them. some will work and some won't

work. joe, let me just say, we're in a 3% world and i disagree. we are going to 4% because the missing ingredient in all of this is housing. at some point housing will kick in because the level of construction is way too low. >> we have a minute. and gary made it all the way in here in studio. then they put him on the far right side of the four boxes so he's had to sit around. >> i've been informed. >> now you know what to say after listening to this. >> i'm pretty optimistic. i think the economy in the near term can grow 3% or better. longser term, the key is going to turn out to be productivity. i'm surprised nobody has mentioned it. productivity recently has been disappointing. but i don't see anything in the fundamentals that suggests that's going to persist. in fact, i suspect that what's happening to productivity is to some extent it's being depressed by responses to regulation. there's been a lot of hiring, but it's in areas like

compliance and audit and risk management which is very appropriate under the circumstances. but where it's hard to measure the output of value added to these activities. when we get beyond some of this, i would expect productivity is going to do better and the long-term performance to the economy will be better as well. >> austan was bristling when he thought you were throwing down. but then he said it was appropriate. you okay now? he then brought it back. >> yeah. look, the last productivity number was actually pretty decent. i think he's 100% right that productivity will come back, that we're not in an era of stagnation that's going to last forever. but the -- i was getting my dander up if it was going to be attributed to the government policy, because i think you've seen that same thing in all the advanced countries of the world. everybody's following a different policy. >> you always come up with that. >> and has the advantage of

being correct. >> he's always got that. never obamacare or regulation or high corporate taxes. it's always that the whole world did -- >> and there's no regulation in those other countries. >> you would have nothing. >> yeah. and if i had a full head of hair then i wouldn't be bald. those are the facts. >> i think that's part of the problem here. you're still -- you know, i can't help it that i have great hair. don't get mad about it. anyway, we will have more from our panel in just a little bit. austan was not taking the bait as much today? i kept trying and trying. smooth. why would he? because then it sort of lowers himself to my level which he doesn't want to do. right? >> that's why -- >> i got more time. >> it's not over. when we return, price wars at the pump. how low will fuel prices go? a game of cat and mouse when it comes to your wallet.

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the market is setting itself up ahead of the job numbers. dow jones looks it would open 32 points higher. nasdaq up a little over seven points. all that could change at 8:30 when we do get those job numbers. and keep an eye on tyson foods. goldman sachs adding to the conviction buy list. arguing that the poultry producer's value is underappreciated especially in light of its recent acquisition. and gas prices just keep plunging. yesterday we showed you that some cities are already seeing prices dip below $2 a gallon. that's an about face from when we started the year. the national average at the beginning of 2014 was $3.30 a gallon. today the average, $2.72. and those lower prices are sparking gas wars on the highway. let's talk more about the low price battle. patrick is gas buddy.com's senior petroleum analyst. good morning to you. >> good morning.

>> help us understand where gas prices are going. even between now and the holidays at this point. >> you will see the downward direction continue. certainly more motorists will be gaining access to sub sub-2-dollar-gallon gas. it could show up here in the next couple weeks in texas, south carolina, missouri. the low price, low tax states have the opportunity to see some stations under $2. i know there's a lot of anxious folks out there who think the average prices will get that low. but not quite yet. but it remains good news for folks filling up. >> and in terms of states where you're not going to see gas prices go down as much, what should you expect there? >> opposite there. high gas tax states are probably not going to see it. california, connecticut, hawaii, alaska. anywhere where gas taxes tend to be far higher, areas of big

cities, chicago, new york, l.a. not going to see near those prices. here in chicago we see prices well above $3. san francisco, new york city's getting close to seeing their average. >> explain the rest of it. who is capturing that margin then? >> well, it's not even the margin we have to talk about differentials in spot prices between the gulf coast, the west coast. obviously proximity. location, location, location. being in oklahoma, close to curbing, gulf coast refineries, infrastructure. you talk about new york and of course they're trying to get access to canadian crude but the price is going toob higher. so it's all about where you are. >> we're just talking about the next couple weeks. look at it a little farther. what do you think it really looks like? >> it looks like a much better year for motorists. we could see the national average lingering under $3 a gallon likely through march or april. that's when we'll likely see the

$3 surge come back. keep in mind 2015 will not see the high prices that we saw in 2015. the yearly average this year set to close out somewhere in the high 3.30s. 2015 could see even a lower yearly average perhaps in the three teens or three twenties. how far will it go? that's going to set the tone for 2015. >> do we know are consumers changing their behavior in terms of how they actually act at the gas station? meaning, there have been studies that have been done about when gas costs a lot, people don't fill up their tank. they'll go half way. what are we seeing now? >> well, we're likely seeing fewer trips to the gas station. price is coming down. folk who is are putting in a set $10, $20 amount are getting more bang for their buck. so that's the loss here for gas stations is folks are making less stops at the gas station because they can afford to put

more in their tank at the same time. so gas stations trying to do a better job of bringing the customers in because they're going to be visiting less frequently as prices come down. >> and you can speak to this. the real money at a gas station isn't actually the gas. >> oh, sure. absolutely. although right now at some stations, not the $1.99 station, but some stations it certainly is the gas. profit margins at some stations still very healthy at 30 cents a gallon as they pass the discounts on a bit slower. but most of the money still coming inside the station. >> okay. we're going to thank our guest this morning. patrick, thank you for being on this morning. >> thanks for having me. up next, we'll get some final predictions from our expert panel. and the most important thing investors need to watch when the numbers do hit, here are the futures at this point. which have been up most of their day. up about 39 points on the dow. up four on the s&p. and up 11 now to the tones of

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five-year growth plan. plans plans to add stores, alcoholic beverages, mobile ordering, and doubling revenue. ceo howard shultz is going to be on "closing bell" this afternoon. you're not going to want to miss that. we are just a few minutes from the widely watched november jobs numbers. it is now time to play predict the payrolls with our panel. everyone's got their prediction sticks ready to go. our theme is a holiday season one. it's all about ugly christmas sweaters. kevin, we're starting with you. what's your prediction? >> i'm coming in at 212 because i think the retail employment isn't going to go up as much because everybody's buying from amazon and exports aren't hiring. >> austan? >> at the university of chicago here where we come to hear the whispers of friedman's ghost.

he says joe doesn't know what he's talking about, but he's saying 222. >> mark, how about you? >> 220. that's not just to undercut austan. let me say this. i think the odds are unusually high that we could get a hot number, a number that is higher than expectations. a lot of little things coming together suggests a better number than what's being anticipated. >> rick, your call. >> 230. 2-3-0. 230,000. and i picked it for a very easy run. the seasonally adjusted numbers are losing their variance. there's a whole story as to why the five and three year comps, the credit crisis, rating change are gone. so 230 and we're going to compress in this area. >> steve, you're high high mand right now. rick is high. >> i got 211. that's just for the private

sector. i don't know how to predict the government spending, government hiring. and i've got an error rate of plus 33. >> i'm the optimist so far. 240,000. looks to me like hiring has been faifrl. >> joe, what's your number? >> i went out to 90 places on pie and it's 3.14159653593238 dlsh you're not going to let me finish? >> no. >> i'm the pessimist today. s >> 200 k, and rurew. >> i went out all the places. >> did you do the math yourself? >> stick around. up next it is the november jobs report we've been waiting for. we'll have the numbers and the instant reaction.

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. welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we are just a few seconds away from the november jobs report. we've been watching the futures ahead of that. at this point at least there are some green arrows. dow up by 38 points. s&p futures up by close to four

points. and the nasdaq up close to 11 points. a lot of this is betting on what the jobs report is going to be. expectations are from 220 to 230. but we were talking in the break, steve leisman said this one could be all over the map. hampton pearson is standing by waiting to give us the numbers. i'll send it to you. >> 321,000. november non-farm payrolls increased by 321,000 jobs. the unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%. average hourly earnings up 0.4%. the 321,000 is the biggest monthly gain since january of 2012. that average hourly increase of .4% is the biggest monthly hike since june of 2013. private sector jobs in the month of november increased by 314,000. the revision, september revised uptowards 256 to 271.

the net increase of 44,000 over those previous two months. job gains widespread across the board leading the way. professional and business services. that sector alone up 86,000 jobs in november. the biggest monthly gain there since november of 2010. the labor force participation holding steady at 62.8%. job gains with the revisions now have averaged 278,000 for the last three months. 224,000 for the previous 12 months. another interesting note in this particular set of data, the average work week in november was 34.6 hours nap is the highest since may of 2008. and the so-called unemployment rate now stands at 11.4%. a year ago it was 12.7%. lots to talk about, guys. >> that certainly is. let's get reactions.

only one person had a three handle. >> but that was actually a three handle. >> times ten to the second. 3.14 -- >> you added that. >> that was there. >> you added it. >> i think you should have just gotten rid of the decimal point and added a comma, and you would have been in better shape. >> at least it says my work indicates and we all laugh. >> we don't all kind of laugh, you do. >> i kind of laugh. my work copying pi came closer. austan goolsbee, mark zandi. austan, come on. >> that's a huge number. >> good number. >> if we get three months of that in a row, i think people would absolutely completely change their tune. that is a really big number.

>> you know, kevin, after -- i don't know what it was. i guess it was the worry about oil affecting some of our trading partners. earlier this week, they said that's off the table now. maybe it's back on the table now, don't you think? >> well, i still don't think so. i think the markets are going to be terrified of that. this is a humongous number and the upward revisions were fantastic. the economy is doing way barn we expected. >> we would have been closer to this if we had seen the revisions. but we were forecasting off of much lower numbers. >> how come the futures are weaker? >> they're worried the fed is going to tighten sooner. >> zandi, what crappy formula you used for adp. what the hell happened this time? >> i told you it was going to be higher. boom. it's a boom number. it's not jobs. it's average hourly earnings up . 4%. that means wage growth, if you look at it it is now

accelerating. that is key to the economic outlook. the other key number is the weekly hours. that's a new cyclical high. it's not only the jobs, it's the hours and wages. everything is moving into high gear now. and it feels more like a boom economy than even a strong one. >> you saw me write this down. how many private sector jobs, least man? >> 314. >> i'm impressed. >> that's your work. >> this is an important report. some of it is probably seasonal. i have the sense that holiday hiring was earlier than usual, probably bigger. some of that may come off in december because if you believe that some of the hiring would have otherwise occurred later. but it fits with what we've been seeing in the employment data. i've been hearing by way of anecdotes by firms that follow various industries. it fits with the general tenor

of the book. >> it fits with everything except with what we heard from ceos earlier this week. >> i think they're the outliers. we had them come in yesterday and talk about a 5% economy. i'm skeptical that trend job growth is quite this high. i would be saying the same thing if we came in at 150. >> that makes sense. come on. we got to move the show across the pond at this point. >> what you have is i think the fed looks through this number one time. i think it's on a short leash here. i don't think it's going to believe that wage growth is running at a 0.4 monthly clip. i don't think it's going to believe that job growth trend is over 300,000. note what happened. the reason is because two months in a row you've had half a

million combined come back into the workforce. the unemployed rose actually by 115,000. so still looking at slack in the labor market. i don't think that when i look at this number i think gary's right. there are seasonal issues here. a very light seasonal adjustment mark. the actual not seasonally adjusted number here which i will give you in just a second was, like, 400,000 or something like that. >> steve, look up retail jobs and transportation. that's where the couriers are. that would address gary's point about seasonality. >> retail total is 50,000. >> okay. that's pretty good. >> but the notion that the retailers are preparing for a good season, i don't know if you saw the council for shopping centers number running for the month of november. so that's a little bit -- and i don't know. ian shepardson said the nrf number is not credible. that 11% decline.

and we have some numbers coming out next week in the all-america sur vie that are going to say this is going to be a rosy surface. >> you know how you square the circle about ceos? they're multinational corporations. so they're -- they've got the whole world in their vision. and the rest of the world is clearly struggling. if you have operations in europe, japan, china, asia. you've got a different perspective on things. but if you're domesticicly oriented, those companies are doing well and feeling a lot better. so i think the ceos have a broader perspective. and that's coloring reviews on how the economy is going to go. >> are you ready to say trend job growth is north? >> no the trend is still probably 225, 230, somewhere in there. but the key statistic here is those hourly earnings. because this suggests that year over year hourly earnings is now well into the 2s headed towards

the 3s. and that will jump start more consumer spending. that will support more housing activity. that's the key to a stronger economy. it feels like we're right there. >> i might put a note of caution on this. and that is with gdp growth being okay but relatively modest, this might be an indicator that our productivity numbers continue to just be in the basement. that basically all output growth has to come from hiring more people. in the short run, that's great. but in the long run, that's our problem. >> we have a former fed president sitting with us. gary, if you're the fed and see these numbers what's that mean in expectation of raising rates next year? >> the fed is going to be pleased from these numbers. as far as raising rates, i think the fed has lots and lots of flexibility because inflation is

so quiescent. i still expect they'll raise rates in the middle of the year for a couple of reasons. one is they haven't been trying to talk us out of that date very hard if at all. secondly, you can't wait until circumstances are absolutely perfect before you start to act. so you think about this and say clearly the situation is getting better from the economic performance point of view. clearly there's a lot of concern and uncertainty in the market about when they're going to get started. that you can put some of that behind you and so forth. so i think the fed has got flexibility, but i think mid-year is still a good guess. >> rick, talk about the market reaction. the first knee jerk reaction was that the futures came down. now they've bounced back again. how are traders figuring what this means? >> on the equities, you're right. the s&p futures went negative

for awhile. they're both close in levels. here's the markets that aren't at the same place they were before the number. the euro, the yen. you know, the yen doubled down on its losses. the euro was almost unchanged. it's now down a boat load. see, those are the lasting issues. and you know what? this is a wonderful number. i wish i'd even gone higher. how many years after the recession? this growth probably would have happened much sooner if we weren't misallocating resources and regulations and higher costs based on things like health care. but we're here. and what we used to do when the we had stogies and playing poker. it was check to the highest bidder. i think it's absolutely crazy that with this type of job growth with the average steve

leisman's been pointing to that i said that it bugs them we don't have high inflation. but that would mean, you know, don't have your rates much higher than 1.25%, 1.5%. but to be where we're at makes no sense at all. if they wait longer, they'll be blamed for hurting the economy and they'll skew statistics for another four generations. >> that's the closest rick gets to sending them a thank you note that i've heard in a year. >> i would never send them a thank you note. they created a six-year cure for a two-year flu. >> mark, i still have wage growth at 2.11%. i want to get away from the semantics of this discussion that seems to in general talk about wage inflation. thigh talk about wage pressure. we are so far away from wage

pressure. we could be at 3% or 4% even on wage hikes and it still not create the impluls. the other thing is oil prices. you heard draghi talk about it yesterday. it means 0.4% down on the inflation rate in europe. it's going to have an effect here on the headline at least with concern about what happened to the core. while the enflags rate clarifies itself and whether or not we have a still disinflationary impulse. >> steve, when was the last time the united states had more than a last quarters of inflation? >> 1890 -- >> i rest my case. >> but when was the last time we had an eight-year financial recovery from financial crisis and global disinflation all over the place? >> this is the key point about -- >> the last time central bankers went nuts. probably in the '30s. >> wage growth is not

inflationary unless it's greater than productive plus inflation. we're not even close to that as steve points out. >> i thought that was discredited a whole time ago. >> which is so much in conventional wisdom, there's no academic backing for it. >> there is none. >> but even if you buy -- wait. even if you buy into it and a lot of people do buy into it and the fed seems to to a significant degree, then we're not even close to that. at 2.5%, we need to be at 3.5% to 4% before it becomes an inflation issue. we're not there. >> i want to bring in brian belski. brian, what do you think of these numbers? what would you be advising clients as a result? >> i think they're great numbers. and it backs up what we've been saying in our year ahead for 2015 as u.s. stocks continue to set the pace for the rest of the world. 2015 is going to see that

transition back to fundamentals, back to common sense, and back to where good news is good news, and bad news is bad news. and clearly the fed is going to be this quote, unquote, data dependent. but with this type of number you cannot refute the strength of the u.s. economy. and we have to get more comfortable on that fundamental train. >> what did you think of the knee jerk reaction where the futures dropped down on this strong number? i thought we were in the point where good news is good news. >> no. no. i mean, you know, we published our report on monday morning early and we've been marketing all over toronto and new york. the bottom line is people remain very reactive, becky, very short-term focus especially given the fact that the majority of portfolio managers are on the wrong side of a trade. so i think as we kind of continue to accept the full trend, becky, i think we're still in the midst of a 20-year bull market. we're five and a half years in.

and the more that the u.s. economy continues to improve and we see this correlation trade between earnings, interest rates, the economy, the dollar. i think the more people are going to be comfortable with respect to owning u.s. stocks. >> the most concerning thing i heard today was from jim paulsen. and as you know he was very positive for a long time. rode the stock market higher as it was going along. but he is a little concerned about what happens next year. looking for a flat year next year because we've risen so far. because he's concerned about just how jup lent things are at this point. what do you say to somebody like that? >> with all due respect to jim, i love his work and we've known each other for a long time but he doesn't have the great fortune like we do to talk to all sets of clients all over the world all over the place. and what we know is that clients remain very reactive and doubting of this trend. we did not doubt we are going to see a much more volatile year in

2015 as the fed tries to tap dance around jobs and improving economy here in america. but a declining economy and emerging markets in europe and what impact that has on america, we think all that is noise. but you've seen how on a short-term basis that people continue to react. as long as you see that type of reaction, that's going to create opportunities for those investors that are fundamental and look at the path and the trajectory of fundamentals in america. and that type of reaction is going to continue to lead those people to underperform. that's why we remain steadfast with our bullish forecast. we think single digit returns are very likely for america. >> leisman, is this it, ten-year off to the races? >> i don't know. >> does it go back below -- >> i don't know. you have all this tremendous pressure from europe, joe. keeping things down. i don't know you can get there. >> what do you think? is this it? is he gone? >> i'll tell you what.

it's real easy, guys. 230 to 238 is kind of your neutral zone. think star trek here. if we start to settle above 238, i think we can get all the way up to 260 by the end of the year. i don't think that's going to happen. i still think that if we don't break out of that range and we start to dip back below the 225 to 227 level, the draw towards the end of the year is going to be closer to 214, 215 which is still my call. but like i said, if we within the next two trading days close above 238, buckle up irene you're going to the moon. don't think it's going to happen, but that's what you want to watch. >> okay. folks, thank you. thank you, everybody. brian, austan, kevin, mark, gary. we'll see you guys soon. find out what you should be doing with your money. we'll hear from jim cramer in just a bit on what the data and investors need to watch at that open. and a programming note, don't

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welcome back to "squawk box." let's give you some of the highlights of the november report. on average the country has added 224,000 jobs each month for the last 12 months. this year alone we added 2.65 million jobs. average hourly earnings was an

important number. expected to be up 0.2% but was up 0.4%. one more bit of data this morning is trade. the big headline here, oil imports dropped to their lowest level in five years. main reason the decline in energy prices down 19 cents today. still to come, jim cramer on what investors need to take away from the jobs report. e financial noise

financial noise financial noise financial noise

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i've never felt so alive. get the future of phone and the phones are free. comcast business. built for business. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. good morning, jim. >> good morning, how are you? >> great. even better now we have these great job numbers. do you believe them and think the market will go on a tear from here? >> the market has done well without great job numbers. when you see super job numbers, this calls into question people on the fence about what the fed is going to do. i typically dismiss people who say stop worrying about the fed and let this catch fire. now it's caught fire. the debate will have more gravitas. it's been rallying because we expected a good number. this is baked in. we need to see something that says europe's turning.

something that says china is turning if we are going to get lots of companies to participate. otherwise this is not the kind of number that will ignite the market. the market is already ignited. >> you want to play the game called a close? do you think today turned out to be a great day or not so much? >> you could have the market be flat and there will be whole groups. financials have to fly here. they do. this is their time. ten-year is doing exactly what the financials want. it will not be the time for some of the industrials. people say wait a second. europe is not doing well. china is not doing well. i think you are going to see a shift, a big rotation. >> if we are at 5.8 and get a couple more 300 pluses and still at zero, don't you think some people are finally going to say, oh, my god and we are going to have to go up faster than people thought or not? >> yes. i have been waiting to be able to -- i would like to say no

consistently. 300,000, i totally agree and say okay, i don't want to see the purchasing power of my savings eroded either. i am joining the camp that says if you don't think there is going to be a raise, there has to be a raise. i don't know when. this is very strong number. it's the kind of number that is too strong for some. >> okay. mr. cramer, we'll see you in a couple of minutes. white house reaction to the jobs data. jason furman will join us in a couple of minutes. [woman] can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? [girl] can it tell the doctor how long i have to wear this thing?

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because health is everything. welcome back. we've been watching the numbers after the jobs report. 321,000 jobs. futures initially stumbled. now they are back up. >> i don't have a high degree of confidence. i think we are too low. this is people thinking we've got to get moving on the rate increases. >> you needed to be a total

blowout. >> maybe we can't count on europe forever to keep us deflationary. we start at 5.8, we should not be at zero. >> interesting to watch gas prices today. interesting statistic. carl will talk about it in a moment. have a great weekend, everybody. see you monday morning. right now it's time for "squawk on the street". ♪ i got work to do ♪ i got a job baby ♪ i got work to do >> good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. 321,000, the november jobs number blowing away estimates. biggest gain in almost three years. futures did take a delayed bounce on that news. bonds take a hit. yields back above 2.3. big question is the fed now in a box. our road map begins with the