tv Fast Money CNBC December 5, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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about. china, huge move up 20% over the past month. also we'll talk about that controversial call out of bank of america. google or yahoo!. would you rather? we'll see what the traders think. >> i love that one. straight over to you guys. >> thanks, guys. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm melissa lee. tim seehorn, steve grasso, closing in on dow 18,000 after a strong jobs report this morning. u.s. financials leading the way. the market that is exploding here is china. shanghai composite, best week in five years. and starting to feel maybe a little bit bubbly according to some. the index is up 21% in just one month. so what is the trade at this point? tim? >> bubbly is something you have to take in context. i agree. the market has been doing crazy things. they added 380,000 brokerage accounts in china last week. this whole thing about local money, it is a captive market, you had the market connect with the foreign money into -- you
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also had a property market languishing. you have a lot of rumors, a rate cut and threats of more rate cut, good stuff coming. so this is all played into, this massive rally. you get a market that was underperforming for so long, a backdrop where, again, for me, china is always about liquidity and this is a market that has been getting it from all sides. >> have you seen a lot of activity in the fx side or other multinational china levered plays. >> we have seen some. we have seen some. you look at it this right now, i'm looking at how i want to play if i want to participate in china itself, i look at alibaba. the way they have been trading, not that great. we hit and it pulled back. holding near 108, 110 level for quite some time now i look at this name. i look at the expansion efforts they're going towards, when we look at india, i think it stands out for me. we talked about international xangs, expansion, we talked about the u.s., they're going elsewhere now. i think the u.s. will be huge
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for alibaba. >> let's bring in the managing director, strategist at jpmorgan, adrian. thanks for coming by, after we capped off such a massive run. if you're talking about a 21% return, any other asset class, we would think perhaps we're stretched at this point. what do you think of what is going on so far? >> i think let's draw a five-year chart. we're talking about a market that is a third of the peak level that we were seeing, you know, coming out of the 2007 bubble. yes, we're seeing brokerage accounts opening up. they're a fraction of the pace we were seeing in 2006. i think you hit the nail on the head, what is going on here is it is the savings pool. the savings pool was almost universally going into real estate. the order of $8 billion a day, a month, that -- some of that is freed up with the 10% decline that we're seeing in residential sales.
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it doesn't take mup of thch of put the -- this is a local asia trade. it isn't bringing up the eight shares by very much. i don't think it will help the u.s. listed china names. this is about the local savings pool. finding the less next momentum trade which is asia. the asia evaluations are okay, the low teens. i don't think it is bubble territory. >> shanghai composite versus hong kong? >> shanghai outperforms eight shares and eight shares will outperform china adrs. >> is this based on cutting the reserve requirement? where do you think we're going from here? we have seen an interest rate cut. is it hinging on that? i know you're positive on it, but does it sell the news event if we don't see the bazooka. >> china, there are almost three different markets. asia to me is the savings pool not going into residential property looking for the momentum trade. put that aside. eight shares, the economic data in china is showing the economy
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slowing down very fast. and the stock market knows that. these eight shares are very cheap. now they're responding a bit look a european bank last year to an easing. so we had one rate cut, ten days ago, we think you'll get another. you'll get two reserve ratio cuts. so you trade the easing and if you're trading and easing trade, maybe it is a first half of 2015. but not a long-term story. >> what is the number one concern you have when it comes to china or investing in china? >> my number one concern is the government has too high a growth target. this is a middle income economy, 7,000 u.s. dollar per capita gdt, $9 trillion economy, perfectly acceptable that it grows at 3%, 4%. by having such a high growth target, the only way to achieve that is to add more capital to the economy. we have 14% loan growth. maybe 7%, 8% nominal gdp. final point concern, 31 months
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of ppi deflation. the cpi number has just come out at 1.5%. there are a lot of characteristics here of japan two decades ago. >> that's a pretty big concern. you made a great call in terms of going over china before this massive rally we have seen. it sounds like you still think there say trade there to be long, something that mirrors the shanghai composite. the same time if you drill down into sectors, would you go into financials which led the way higher? >> yes, so in moving overweight, we stuck with our growth names and we have added banks and insurance. so banks are trading at five times trailing earnings. which was expressing a very pessimistic view on nonperforming loans on the growth dynamics. so it allows them to respond, to expand just like you could have traded european banks in 2013. >> okay. adrian, thank you so much for coming by. good to see you in person. adrian mawat. tim seymour, how are you trading
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china? >> adrian is talking about the backs and the insurance companies. we talked about this on tuesday. we talked about the local market. adrian makes a key distinction. the fxi, trading the hong kong shares, is not the pek, which we talked about on tuesday, the local market. i think you can stay in the trade. i would not chase it tomorrow. i think after a 10% move this week, let's wait for a pullback. everything adrian said i totally agree to that this is a market that has a lot of liquidity chasing it. if you chase the broader adr market, i kind of like china mobile. this is a big slot, state owned company. they pay a decent dividend yield. >> you don't have the stomach to invest in adrs directly or even etf in china. where would you go? >> las vegas sands. they have been beaten up. the casino traffic has been down month after month. and this is me just sort of fishing for the bottom. they're down 28%, las vegas sands down 28%, year to date, win is down 15%. i play for a return on las vegas
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sands. you're going to see them cook back online. corruption scandal, those are the head winds. >> timmy talks about this a lot, google and bay due traded in lockstep for a long time until recently. google did not perform again today. baidu hung in there rather well. i think it sold off enough where this is a name to start looking at. last quarter at the end of october was outstanding. their growth rates are outstanding. depending what metrics you look at or what you believe, i think it is cheaper than google. it feels like finally decoupled. baidu looks interesting. >> you go -- >> i go baba. but i like china mobile. i think that is a great name out there. there is specific names, i always say that because some of the names when i look at them from a liquidity standpoint, las vegas sands is great. but many of the names, the adrs out there, liquidity is something people have to be conscious of. have the liquid to be involved in some of the other names.
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>> take a look at the kbw bank index, new one year high. a lot of banks within the index hitting new 52 week highs as well. talking about pnc, sti, bank of new york. also big gains today for bank of america, jpmorgan, et cetera. >> i just continue to roll up. i've been in goldman sachs, rolled up again today, i continue to go on call spreads. i look at some of the names, all of these names are performing all hitting new highs today. i think that continues, mel, and roll up and stay in the trade and limit my risk to the upside. i'm not long any of these in terms of stock except bank of america. but i think the omptions are th way to go. >> their capital levels have doubled. so if you look at this, nothing but positive news out of bank of america. there is still those headline risks for bank of america. up 13% year to date. off the bottom of the financial crisis, it is up 600%.
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it is outperformed the rest of the space. it feels like it depends where you value it. if it is 10 to 13 times, it is a $25 name. >> today was about the payroll number. this is a breakout. all the guys went to fresh 52 week highs. this is because of -- whatever happens to the ten-year bond, the bottom end of the curve is moving, steepening, they will profit from that. banks love this. >> u.s. bancorp, a new all time high today. we mentioned morgan stanley. the reason why i mentioned it, every time you see a negative headline, it all comes back to the fact that morgan stanley changed their business a few years ago for the better. i still, to pete's point, feels like that name, more than any other name, still has a lot of runway ahead of it. >> there is a big biotech conference on monday. we'll tell you the two stocks that could be big movers during that event coming up. would you rather? >> we love this game. >> google versus yahoo!. what wall street thinks and what the traders think. that's next. location. location.
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we're for an opens you internet for all.sing. we're for creating more innovation and competition. we're for net neutrality protection. now, here's some news you may find even more surprising. we're comcast. the only isp legally bound by full net neutrality rules. two big tech names kicking off our top trades.
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bank of america upgrading from a buy to neutral and downgrading ne google from a neutral to a buy. would you rather? in this case, bank of america would rather yahoo!. what would you rather, pete? >> i think right now under the circumstances we're under, i would rather yahoo!. and for all the reasons that were documented in this report. they talked about alibaba, they talked about the tax issues that could be a very positive mover for yahoo!. there is a lot of things. let's add to the whole mix this. david tepper took a nice move into alibaba as well. so i think there is a lot of things behind this whole thing. ali pay, look at transactions on single days, some numbers were absolutely extraordinary. i like alibaba, i think that feeds into the yahoo! story. near term catalysts favor yahoo! >> the thing that stood out is bank of america was able to pinpoint january 15th. they're probably outlying some kind of tax strategy for baba. for google there was no specific date for catalyst that is the
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crux of the problem be. >> there are much easier catalysts to kind of plan your trading strategy around with yahoo!. to look at companies and look at places where actually google is so much more interesting on setup. this stock, trading back near the 520 level, double or triple bottom on this stock, bottom of one year range, company that is not broken, company that needs a catalyst, it is 20 plus top line growth, 22 multiple, i can buy that right here. >> i'm long both of them. i'm long google and yahoo!. i feel -- >> you like both. >> i do like both. >> i'm longer yahoo! >> you more rather. >> i would rather -- >> okay. anyway. >> i think that you have a better trading opportunity with google because i think this whole downgrade is a really late to the game here. where is it in the process? i think you're better off, make risk $10 to the downside for a couple of head winds with google. i think you have a good upside here. >> next up, starbucks, big day of gains for the stock after
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opening the doorers to the starbucks reserve roastry and tasting room in seattle. billed as a megastore that looks more like a coffee candy store and hopes to capitalize on the high end. howard schultz speaking to cnbc moments ago about that roastry. >> we dreamed about this moment that we can open up a -- such an immersive experience where we can demonstrate all the aspects of drama, romance, theater, roasting coffee, and making it into perfection for our customers. our stores are being overcrowded today. it is the willy wonka of coffee. the only thing missing from this space is a ride that would be the likes of disney. >> certainly a lot of hype about this roastery, tim. >> the willy wonka metaphor -- >> all you need is a -- >> i don't need a ride. i get excited about 15% to 20% earnings per share. i wanted to talk about this before we played the clip.
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i like this stock. bigger positions in my global account because you have two things going on. you have store expansion. multiple expansion channels in terms of product line. you actually have a case where a company that has probably never been run better in terms of cost efficiency perspective there are catalysts here. also a breakout, a breakout in the stock. 80 bucks was a place where people are wondering, it was sold there every time. like a lot of stocks today, you have to think about this 52 week high and trade it on the long side. >> by 2025, starbucks will exceed mcdonald's in market capitalization. get out of town. that's what they're predicting. >> if my tv was older, he would look like tim seymour. >> do you remember my tv? >> no. >> let's talk about it. this is exactly where we -- this price is where we topped out last year at this time.
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$2 23 times forward earnings, it is imperative you close above 84. next level in the stocks. >> unusual activity, metlife. >> metlife, today, hit with pretty interesting paper, going out to february, i say all the way out, most option paper has been very short-term. weekly options, maybe out all the way out to january. today, the february 57 1/2 calls. what makes this interesting is met life has struggled with that $57 number. today, pushed up against once again, traded around $56 a share. 63 is of the alleged book value of the company struggles there. the 5,000 that traded today for a dollar and a half, time out to february, it seems that looks like something that may be ready to break out. >> you're in this. >> i'm not in this right now, no. >> up next, the two biotech stocks you need watch ahead of this weekend's largest biotech conference of the year. the biggest movers and shakers in today's trade.
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from record-breaking highs to major market meltdowns, every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades, serving up in depth analysis and actionable advice. >> i bought some puts today to be cautious in the market. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> i would be more inclined to be with -- >> this is "fast money." >> u.s. has been compartmentalized as the best trade in the entire globe right now. >> have a markets question for the "fast money" traders? tweet us @cnbcfastmoney.
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time now for pops and drops. we have a pop for ultraia. >> they reported last night. the revenues they were able to generate and the earnings and crushed the numbers. the one issue i have now, morgan stanley moved their target to 135. you got to wait for a pullback to get in this name. >> tyson. >> up 24% year to date. ed a
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added to the buy list. still a buy. >> a pop, trulyia, up 3%. >> a bounce because their partner in crime had a big number in terms of november sales. remember this deal goes in front of shareholders on december 18th. both down significantly. whittled down the value of the deal. maybe doesn't get done. >> drop for american eagle, down 14%. >> i didn't think the quarter was a disaster, but the street did. it looked good for a while. all the names, you got to avoid them all right now. >> and a pop for pricey mushrooms. a record-setting white truffle weighing more than four pounds set to hit the soth bee's auction block tomorrow in new york. it is nicknamed big boy and is expected to start at 50 grand and fetch a million bucks. it was discovered last week in italy and specimens this size are set to be found once every 100 to 200 years. >> like an apple.
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>> wow. >> i got a bunch of these at home. i'm rich. rich, i tell you! >> that's good. >> funny. >> all right. >> serious now. >> yeah. >> one of biotech's conferences of the year kicks off tomorrow in san francisco. joining with the two stocks you need to know ahead of the event is meg terrell. always good to see you. >> this conference is the hematology conference. we usually look at asko as the big cancer coverage. but this will be a lot of small biotechs moving out of the conference. one big name to watch, not a lot of big movers, but sellgene has been the name to watch. so big in cancer. this year it partnered with a lot of smaller biotechs presenting data at the conference. we might see a lot of those move. one way to trade into this conference is it to buy sellgene
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or not buy sellgene. that's one name to really watch. both on its drugs, and also on its partners. and then one of the smaller names we should be watching is agios. they had an incredible run this year already. >> up 345% this year. >> absolutely. people still seem to be optimistic about its prospects. it is working in this interesting new area of cellular metabolism for cancer. they're in phase one right now. it is a new technology that really aims at these mutations that affect the way cells mature. what they do is they take cells that are not maturing and they're proliferating a lot, causing the cancer. they inhibit proteins and turn the cells back to mature cells so they can grow up and then live out their normal life cycle and not become tumors. they're in phase one. they'll have new data at the conference on that, they are partnered where sellgene. after this huge run, analysts are saying they could have more
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room to grow. >> we just shared a full screen saying they'll present on two different ones, one for leukemia, one for anemia. the double chance -- >> that could be a big opportunity for agios. the 221, the one in lieu yeeuke partnered with sellgene. >> agios. >> win for pop and drop. on november 19th, got to correct me if i'm -- it was the 19th, the stock traded 4 million shares, huge run to the upside. too much too fast, big volume day, should pull back. it did in the next couple of days, but off to the races since. huge short interest in this name. it is one actually -- i was probably right but not for long enough period of time if that makes sense. it goes higher for me. >> sellgene. >> i love that name. i think it is a great name. other names are actually also going to be involved in that. you brought it up, but this is one of the two big conferences out there that exist in the year that are huge triggers in this industry. >> have we seen the moves in advance? that's always a concern. >> yes, as they move -- one of
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the other names presenting there, i don't know what their data will be, but angene. they had some drug news as well. that name is going higher and higher and higher. that is another one. >> they have an update. >> meg, thanks for coming by. enjoy san francisco and the conference. the conference is called ash. that's the conference. >> way to go. >> okay. >> the time trade here. go around the horn. crazy, huh? tim? >> we spent a lot of time on china. a lot of different ways to play it. a lot of the internet names are interesting too. ej is an interesting play. sympathetic with the property market. not so much. one of the reasons why the equity market is doing well, but this is a company, big steak held, a name i like. i would buy it here. >> pete? >> we talked at the top of the show about the financials, the performance and move to the upside. tim is talking about the names hitting new highs. they were moving toward highs and getting very close to new
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highs. today, blew through the new highs. goldman sachs goes through $200 a share. >> grasso. >> russia, only negative headlines. i think it is front loaded here. headline risk, but rsx, getting to the end of this negative headline flow, all in the name, all in the etf. >> facebook. >> that's it. >> facebook. all right. coming up on "options action," a way to make fun if the money goes up, down or nowhere at all. thanks for watching. see you back here on monday.
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this is "options action." tonight -- >> usa, usa, usa! >> you said it, homer. today's jobs report shows that america is back.ed the rally, relax, we have the catch-up trade. >> how would you like to make money if the weather goes up, down or nowhere at all. >> you can't be serious. >> we'll show you how to do it. >> tonight, we make money in oil. >> it's impossible. it can't be
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