state? it is wednesday, december 10th, 2014. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, every. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's get to the three big stories on our watch list. congressional negotiateses reaching a deal for a $1.1 trillion spending bill. the key development will allow lawmakers to avoid a government shutdown tomorrow. john harwood will join us from washington later this hour. overnight in asia, chinese stocks rallying to recoup nearly half of yesterday's losses. this despite worse than expected inflation numbers that added to worries about a cooling economy there. so we will take it. however, stocks dropping sharply in tokyo. main reason? a government survey that showed big japanese manufacturers are becoming less optimistic and predict conditions worsening in the coming months. opec is set to unveil its

latest monthly oil market report today. there's a weekly u.s. oil data due at 10:30 eastern time. ahead of those reports, we've been watching oil prices. up this hour, you will see holy cow, below $63 a barrel. down another dollar. $62.79 a barrel for wti. weir watching the trickle down impact of dropping crude prices. the u.s. energy price are cutting its prediction for next year's energy prices to the lowest level since 2009. $2.60 a gallon. if that happens, u.s. drivers will save $100 billion over the course of the year. andrew. >> thank you, becky. we have to talk about some stocks though watch this morning. earnings at toll brothers missing the mark by 2 cents. but revenue beating the street. we're going to talk to an analyst who covers the home builders and we're going to do that a bit later this hour. check out yum brands because it's cutting its full year earnings forecast. it's expecting a slower than

expected recovery in china. recovery still trying to bounce back from a food safety scare there this summer. costco posting better-than-expected earnings. higher promotions boosting sales. and bp announcing plan toes spend $1 billion on restructuring. laying out long-term plans for its upstream oil and gas business. bp plans to review its expenditure plans in light of the drop in oil prices. dotcom hiking its dif did he have depend. the chipmaker announcing changes to its combination plan. it's now citing a move to improve corporate governance for that change in the comp. cornferry says it will start paying a quarterly dividend. then there's krispy kreme. shares under pressure this morning unfortunately for them. the doughnut chain earnings and revenues falling short of estimates. i have not been to a krispy

kreme in quite some time but now i've been reminded that maybe -- >> probably not. corn nuts are the latest. >> in our corporate news, legal news keeps mounting for uber. prosecutors are suing the ride sharing service. rival lift is agreeing to pay $500,000 to settle its own process. the company promising to change some of its businesses practices and another rival, this one is called side car. it is also under investigation in cal-i -- are you ready? in california. they only gave me one read. they want to keep us on track, apparently. i only have one story. >> sorry. a little time to get back into town. we will take a look at the markets this morning. yesterday, we were very concerned at this time. maybe an hour from now when things start to take a turn for the worst.

dow was down at one point by as much as 220 points before making a big rebound to come, but only by about 55 points. this morning, there are some red arrows, but these are moderate declines with the dow futures down by about 13 points. s&p futures off by 2.5. nasdaq down by 5.5. check out what's been happening in europe right non. you'll see at least at this hour there are some green arrows if you look at germany, up by about 0.8%. the contact is up by 0.58%. greece is a concern. take a look as what's been happening in the treasury nkts here in the united states. at this point, ten-year bond is yielding 2.206%. if you take a look at currency markets, you'll see that at this hour the dollar is down across the board. euro is trading at 1.2377. and gold prices rights now -- down by about $3.30, $1,228.70 an ounce. >> the s&p closed down less than

a point yesterday. what really had a lot of the week initially and that's the dow. the nasdaq was strong all day long, relative. i think it closed up 25 points. so the notion that it's weakness in oil price and technology, that ended about 10:00 a.m. and technology is definitely not weaker. the nasdaq had a big gain, 25 points. >> what did you think of oil prices this morning, below $63 a barrel? $62 and change. >> they can't go low enough. it's like the limbo for me. have you ever seen a really good limbo? we go to 35, how about if we go to 12? it went to one after it went up to 40 or 50. >> that's when my dad worked in the industry. >> 12 might indicate some negative other -- >> when did it become negative? >> huh? >> when did it become negative? >> it depends on who you're talking about. there are people that think enough on our economy in this

country now is oil based that it's having a bit of a -- i don't know when it offset tess benefit to input costs. >> this is absolutely positive at this point according to larry. >> i wanted him there -- i wanted music when we talk about oil prices because it should be very positive. but you could see the unintended consequences, sometimes you don't connect all the dots. david joy is joining us, strategist at amare price financial and doug coked, chief investment at roya management. david joy, we have a lot of guys on, i'm trying to remember the last few times, you've been relatively positive, relatively sang win. do you think that that jobs report that suddenly showed that the fed might get quicker, does that throw any doubt in your view about the long-term bullish

pieces. >> no. i actually think that they're on track to raise rates sometime in the middle of next year. >> united states 330, so why would that bolster the fed's notion of taking longer to razz rates if it was 330,000? >> it doesn't. it keeps them right on track and i think that's a positive. i don't think it's positive if the side stays on liftoff longer than the street expects. i think they'll get to a hundred by the end of the year. to me, that's the vote of confidence, that this market needs. by the end of qe was a big milestone. >> yeah? >> on the road to normalization. and raising rates for the first time will be another key milestone. so i think strong jobs report is a good thing. >> do you ever look at things other than fundamentals?

and by that, i mean whether people have -- are complacent or whether, you know, a lot of the positive things that are -- would cause you to be bullish, that they're already well known and the market already has factored that in to why it's tripled or whatever in the last six years? >> oh, absolutely. and i think right now is a good example that one of the things we're trying to keep an eye on is sentiment as expressed in valuations. the s&p is trading at 16 times forward earnings. that's a little bit elevated by historical standards. it suggests that there's a lot of complacency out there. that is something we're watching. i don't think it's excessive and i think it's is somewhat justified by the low inflation that we're experiencing. clearly, you have to watch that, especially as it relates to shower to intermedia terms in the market. >> and everybody has a different pe. whether you leave special items in, whether you look at next year. shiller, what was his, 27 based on some other way that he does it? yesterday, he has a --

he has a different way of looking at it. >> it makes it useless, depending on what you're view is, you get to say it's he early 27 or 14. doug, you've been listening. where do you stand? >> we're in the sustainable global economic expansion driven by trends. i call it tectonic shifts in energy, global trade, frontier markets, supporters central global, central banks. you have low oil. this is all going to conspire to be double didn't corporate earnings in the u.s. and overseas. you need to be in the equity markets at this point. >> everywhere or here? >> everywhere. you need to be globally derif phied. everyone thinks the global economy has shrunk. it's actually added the size of the united states of america to global gdp. we're actually at $77 trillion in global economic gdp. so that is driving corporate profits, u.s. corporate profits and the jobs number was unequivocally positive.

right now, the december 17th fed meeting, they could take off a considerable time. but i don't think they're going to raise rates until probably third quarter of 2015. you look at the ten-year at 2.2%, they're not going to raise. >> when you say globally being everywhere, you think japan market is going to do well, you think that russia's market is a place? are there other places that you're concerned about? >> not russia. russia is -- where the russia global is in a virtual cycle of economic growth, russia is in a vicious cycle. everything is going -- >> greece -- >> you like parts of europe? >> i like parts of europe. and if you think the bank of japan with their shock and awe did something big, watch the ecb next year. they're not going to do structural reforms. the ecb is going to have to come in. they have a lot of firepower. their balance sheet has been shrinking. >> when do oil prices go so low

that they become -- that they actually become a pull on the economy as opposed to a help? >> if you look at it, it's kind of like an 80/20 rule. 80 pefrs is positive, 20% is negative. but you have to look at what's going on in energy. the energy sector has dropped 20%. so a lot of big capital projects, mega projects are on the books. so it's really killing the cap ex cycle on next year. but oil producing nations, nigeria, venezuela, iran, below -- right now, they're in trouble. >> you look at why oil would go to 40. if it goes to 40 because of supply and we make a lot of it, that was that would be unequivocally bullish. if it goes to 40 because demand is in recession, it's almost like if they start spiking because of growth. so i think it could be the -- if

oil prices go to 30, something in the world is not -- >> which is david's point, if the federations rates, it's probably a good thing. things are firing and they think the economy is strong. >> global gdp is looking at 4%. >> global? >> global gdp, 4%. that's a huge number. >> who? >> if you look at southeast asia, china, if you look east -- >> that's more in the toilet. multi nationals or go over there? what do you mean by invest everywhere? invest in u.s. multi nationals or mutual funds in emerging markets? >> certainly i like the u.s. but you have to be in the emerging markets to get the opportunity. you have to be in china, you have to be in southeast asia, you have to be in south america.. you have to be in -- i think front tier markets are a good opportunity. you have to have that in your portfolio. >> david, just two things that i think are absolutely consensus driven. one, the market can't go down

between now and the end of the year. it has to go up. do you believe in that? and number two, next year we go high single digits as far as a return. are both of those things what you're predicting? >> not necessarily. i guess the market will be higher based on its momentum. but it wouldn't surprise me to see some profit taking between now and year-end, especially if this business about greece, you know, lingers and all of that. >> how about next year? >> next year, no, i think we're going to get about an 8% return. i think earnings are going to be around 8% and very little if any multiple expansion. >>. >> high single digits, you're all going to be right and you're all going to get bonuses. every single guy says high single digits next year. i hope you're right. double digits are down. >> i'll take double digits. >> i'll take double digits. that's even better. >> all right. we'll see. nobody knows. i don't think anybody -- nobody

really -- nobody knows. nobody knows. >> this is true. >> you have to look at what it's driven by. it's driven by earnings. >> do i have a voya charger? >> we'll get you one. >> no, is that you? voya, you know, those little chargers? is that a voya? >> it's different, i think that might be a different voya. >> why don't you sue them for -- >> hey, any way we can get the voya name is out is a good thing. >> isa pharmaceuticals. they've been rethinking that. >> it plains benator look like a good name. >> right, it does. well, maybe not. thank you david and doug. coming up, our favorite basketball owner, mark cuban -- >> he's not our favorite basketball owner. >> who is? >> mark gilbert or -- >> mark cuban, nonetheless --

>> he's the favorite entrepreneur on shark tank. >> he's the favorite shark tank basketball entrepreneur. >> he's going to be signing off on the s.e.c. when we return. but here is a twist. he was sitting next to former s.e.c. chairman chris cox. the heated exchange, next. plus, roger goodell speaking out after months of criticism. the dell tails on his plan for a tougher personal conduct policy when "squawk box" returns. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster?

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sxwloo welcome back to "squawk box." keith joins us from the weather channel. it was nicer here when we went outside this morning. >> a little bit of a break there. we're going to go back to some rain, snow in new york city. at the moment, here is a live look at the radar. you can see all that moisture offshore. philadelphia up into boston, that will go to back onshore. the real snow into burlington, vermont, into upsate new york, watertown, into buffalo, they could see some snow there. for the most part, well equipped to deal with it. today we'll get back moisture. new york city, you will see snowflakes mixing in there, maybe a coating by early tomorrow morning. shouldn't be anything other than a nice christmassy touch there. on friday, we finally get this system out of here. this is a slow-moving storm. obviously started yesterday and it's going to take until friday afternoon to totally clear it out and move it up into canada. so some big snowfall amounts, 12 to 18. this is lake-enhanced stuff.

you have to go through parts of pennsylvania to see 3 to 5 there. new york, this will put us on the edge there. we'll see a bit of a dusting, but shouldn't be a big deal. like i said, guys, around christmas, a dusting is just about right. we'll take that. >> we'll take christmas. >> a white christmas could -- >> i'm sorry, i didn't hear that. >> the old binger. it does whistle, but not like that. he does a beautiful -- terrible. >> i am a great whistler. >> there's no soul. you're technically okay. >> keith, let me see the tie. that's where you're stepping up today, basically. >> do you like this tie? >> i don't know. appeared rue does. >> i'll take that. >> if you want, you can take that. and then you've got the tie bar, too, i see. >> yeah. the tie bar is in and now the matte black is what you want instead of a -- gq told me that, at least. >> really? >> yeah, yeah. >> all right. that's cool. >> somebody is listening.

>> somebody is. nfl commissioner roger goodell is going to unveil a tougher personal conduct policy today. he will meet with nfl team owners. goodell has been dealing with a lot of criticism since the ray rice issue. he said in his own words, he blew it. he said that before. apparently didn't fit the crime. under the new rules, the accused immediately go on paid lead following formal charges or an independent investigation. into anything? >> this was specifically to domestic abuse charges. >> okay. what if he, for example, were caught drippinking a 32 ounce s in your view, andrew, is two games enough for that? >> only if you're in new york

city when you drink it. >> i'm just wondering how much of a player -- >> that might be okay. >> we're okay with that. but i just wonder how much of a player's percentasonal conduct totally -- >> he sat down with 11 former players, including mike single taer. mike singletary said this is the nfl, it stands for perfection and if you can't meet that, you shouldn't be in the league. >> it's the biggest moneymaker, but there's a lot that goes on. you listen to the language between them. and there's still, you know, guys steering helmets into other helmets. i'm much more concerned -- i mean, i understand society needs to deal with domestic violence, but -- >> and roger made that point in this interview, too. this is a societal problem. we're trying to get in front of it and is deal with it. >> there's a lot of companies where people have a morals clause. >> including here. >> so forget about the horrible

things that happen. >> and put on leave for things that would be -- your soda could count. >> rightly so. the journal's monica langley. >> she's been following this all the way through and sat through some meetings. she said an insider's view on this. let's tell but the form ur securities and exchange commissioner chairman christopher cox. i have not seen christopher cox in quite some time. he is getting into the shark tank. an s.e.c. hater, mark cuban shares the stage with cox at the market council event, this happened in las vegas. cuban talking about why alibaba should not have gone public in the united states. melissa lee was the moderator. >> there is no point in s.e.c.

enforced -- it's the biggest ipo in history and -- >> can i push back on you, mark? you bought into this pipg? yes. >> you're saying the s.e.c. should have turned it away, yet you are there as a shareholder giving your money to alalibaba. >> because i think the s.e.c. is worthless in the first place when it comes to enforcement. seriously. i've come to grow and like chris. i didn't expect to have that and i respect him. >> c-o-x. >> yes. >> cuban talking about not letting alibaba listen to the u.s. senate around the difference between china and the government and the ability to enforce insider trading rules. of course, mr. cuban -- back and forth. >> still mama.com. >> don't cross him. >> continues. >> i wonder if there's any -- is there any situation where he would wear a coat and tie? any? i mean, i understand people don't have to do that when they're billionaires.

but is there any -- >> i was thinking about to -- >> a funeral? a wedding? is there any -- >> i bet at his wedding. >> it's nice to be able to do that. and we know he has $1 billion. we understand, he has the g-6 or whatever it is. but anytime where you would feel like for decorum, i'm going to -- >> i don't know. you go on tv he day without a jacket. >> i know, but i have a tie on. anyways, i understand that. he's got a lot more money than i'll ever have. >> entertaining. i like watching. >> i like to watch? >> yeah. we have fresh numbers out of china overnight. inflation coming in weaker than expected. hit ago five-year low. the benchmark index is rebounding after a partnership tuesday slump in reaction to regulators tightening credit conditions. the shanghai composite is still up 40% year-to-date.

are investors finding opportunity in this asian giant? he will focus on american economies at the ender price institute. derrick, thanks for coming in today. >> thank you. >> you're here because we had a stunned decline of 5.2% in china just two days ago. but then you look, and since jump, that market is up 50%. so we should probably get used to some big and volatile swings. what do you tell investors who are looking at this area? >> well, i start with the fact that chinese money supply is $8 trillion larger than american. so imagine dumping $8 trillion into u.s. markets. you're going to get money flowing really quickly in and out of places. so there isn't anyplace else to invest in china right now. you've got a weak economy, a weak property market. people decided, let's try the stock market. that's basically was going on right now. it's a gain. nothing to do with profits, nothing to do with economic prospects. has to do with there's a lot of money flowing around. it has to go somewhere. we're trying to stock market. >> we thought we were doing that for a while.

>> yes. and that's why i started off with $8 trillion more. >> you're right. >> that sounds like -- >> we heard the samt argument. that's why our stock prices are up here. but now we're starting to see the overall economy theoretically catch up with where the fed put it. >> well, the other difference is we have a lot more investment options here than the chinese do. you can't legally take money out of the country if you're most chinese entities. the futures market is rigged i'll say nicely. property market is depressed. if you don't have good economic projects to go into, you really don't have a lot of choices. so here, you can see hey, too much liquidity, this is the stock market, but you have a lot of options. in china, you know, everything runs one direction, runs another direction. so you're going to get more of these, are we getting the government pushing back against the stock market, panic 5% drops? no. and everybody goes back and we saw the next day a 3% rise. >> so it sounds like if there's no place to invest, this really

is -- there are no alternatives. it sounds like a great place for watching money go higher, but it also sounds like a place that's not necessarily for those who are faint of heart. >> that's exactly right. this rally is not connected to reality. it's connected to the amount of money. so since there's so much money, the market could go up-and-up and up. it could go up easily another 50% without blinking. but if there's a government intervention because they're getting nervous, you know, all that goes away instantly. so what we're used to in volatility here, the chinese market is going to be much more volatile. i think there could be a sustained rally. but it's not linked to anything. so it's very filmsy. >> not linked to anything, but watching china's economy certainly will have an impact on what happens in those markets. we know lower oil prices are huge advantage for china. how does that play out? >> that is a big advantage for china back up the chinese economy is weak right now, and when the chinese economy wab strong, the stock market didn't do anything. you don't have a connection between the economy and the market.

you don't necessarily believe any of the figures. you have a change between profitability and equities pric prices. the relation to the stock market, who knows? you know, it's not as if you're going to get these companies reporting higher profits so you can trust them and that will lead to a flight to quality. that doesn't happen. >> let's talk about the economy. that does have an impact on trading partners, it will eventually have an impact on us, as well. what happens with the lower oil prices as they continue into the middle of next year? >> well, that helps. the economy is definitely slowing down, not getting a lot of structural reform. people talk about structural reform in europe, but whether the ecb is going to come in. same story in china. so most of the wins are pushing back and now we finally got something that's a boost for them. i wouldn't say you can look at a strong economy next year, but maybe oil prices are going to help with the chinese while they hurt iran, etcetera.

since china is a much better partner for us, a little bit of a boost for us through china. >> thank you for coming in today. >> thank you. coming up, a government shutdown averted. john harwood will join us with the details of a trillion dollar spending bill. first, a look at yesterday's winners and losers. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. the annual report card is out and it's mixed year for americans. fewer americans are smoking cigarettes, but there is more overeati overeating. the aloha state ranking the healthiest for the third year in a row, followed by vermont, massachusetts and connecticut and also utah. mississippi in last place for all health determinants combined and arkansas, louisiana, kentucky and oklahoma also disappointing. >> colorado used to be on one of the top lists. it used to always be really healthy. i wonder if the chair in marijuana laws affected them. >> all i can tell from what we had is that being unhealthy is

really good for college football. that's all i -- i just realized that. i don't pick any of those states that are unhealthy and we go against vermont, hawaii or massachusetts, i'll take any of those states. alabama's two teams and mississippi can kick any of the -- any of them. so i'm not sure about -- i don't think being healthy is all it's cracked up to be. >> maybe not. tough to argue with that. let's get to our headlines this morning. detroit is expected to announce bankruptcy. the city's emergency manager says detroit will no longer be in financial emergency once that officially happens. nike is accusing three of its former shoe designers of stealing commercial secrets. the company says the workers took the idea to german rival adidas. mexico says it is really to intervene in currency markets. mexico will hold a daily option whenever its currency falls at least 1.5% from the previous day. big washington news

overnight, congressional negotiators reaching a deal for $117 trillion spending bill. it should allow lawmakers to avoid a government default at midnight tomorrow. joining us now is chief washington correspondent john harwood. john, we've got about 48 hours? >> this is a christmas miracle. >> is it really going to happen? >> yes. there will not be a government shutdown. i think they were always on track to work this out. there remains a question about whether or not once the house passes this on thursday, which is what i would expect to happen, whether the senate can act immediately by that deadline or whether they have to do a bridge of a temporary funding bill for two or three days while the senate works out its process for the senate to remove that quickly requires unanimous consent. and the idea of getting all senators to agree on something is hard to imagine. although the prospect of getting out of town and going home for

the holidays might mike that happen. >> does this say anything larger about the way folks may act in washington over the next year? >> nothing at all. it says that we've had an election, democrats wanted to cement some of their spending priorities and so did republicans for the rest of this year, but it doesn't chart any course for beyond that. we're going to have a lot of big fights next year, although i do think that mitch mcconnell and john boehner mean it when they say that with all the fight that they have, they don't intend to use government shutdowns or debt default as tools in their arsenal. and so there will be attempts to push them in that direction. there will -- it's a faction of the republican party that will vote against this deal and many democrats will vote against it, too. but i don't think that that -- those factions right now have been leveraged within the republicans to make that happen. >> they do point out without it, you've got nothing.

you're like the immigration thing. we are mad, we're really mad. mad, mad, mad. we are so mad. in fact, we're going to vote and show you how mad we are. but that's all got without this shutdown, john, right? >> well, now that they have the senate, they have a greater capacity to -- >> but you know what i'm saying. with immigration, they've got no -- you know, unless they're saying we're going to defund something and then the president has threatened to veto that, which would shut down the funding. >> joe, you're describing the -- yes. that is a real frustration among people with -- >> that's why guys like cruz say you can't take that off the table. >> yeah. >> then again, that's 2016 when the media once again portrays it as a republican engendered shutdown and then you're screwed again. >> yeah. it would be a republican agendaed shutdown, but yes, you're right. >> that's based on a reaction to something that the other side did that they think is totally

unacceptab unacceptable. >> right. but if you decide to say the way i'm going to fight is to sht down the government -- >> if you think what it is it is that is being done, if you really believe that that is so against everything, whatever it is. >> i think this discussion is so objectionable, that i'm going to pull the plug and make our network go dark, that is on me for having done that, not on you based on what you just said. >> there are many times i've been listening to one of your arguments and i say, if i had a switch -- but i don't. i love you. >> hey, johnny manziel is starting. did you see that?

>> is that right? >> yeah. he's finally going to get a start. don't you think they should do that? >> i haven't been following the browns. >> you've been watching rg 3. >> the redskins are now officially the worst franchise in the nfl. but tell me, is hoyer having a bad season? >> no, but they think it's time. they lost again in a heartbreaker. >> i'd like to see what manziel can do. >> all right. sorry. go ahead. >> i wanted to go to something, but i don't think if this is the right time for it. >> you want to go to the torture report? >> yeah. i wanted to understand the john harwood perspective on the cia report and the fallout. >> well, the fallout, i think, has been somewhat less than what was feared in terms of international reaction and protestes and that sort of thing. that has been relatively muted so far. i do think that we've absorbed

for some years the idea that the united states government, in certain places, went overboard in our reaction to 9/11 and the way in which we were treating people in our country. i do think it's useful for people to remember as we debate this that the bush administration was acting out of a desire to protect the country at a time when people were scared to death about what has happened and, look, it's a very, very hard problem. the administration, the bush administration acknowledged even while doing that that torture was a line they wouldn't cross. other people were. and i think when you read this report, it's hard for a reasonable person to look at that and say that's not torture. >> right. and there is some nuance, john, and the journal points it out well. they didn't talk to any of the

former cia directors. they point some things out, as well. and we do want a cia strong enough to protect us. they will be faulted if there's another horrific attack. yet ten years after we're in a position where we can go back and second-guess everything and a lot of people, there's a little bit of, you know, an outraged this is happening from people who absolutely knew and who signed off on it when it was happening because that was a different period back then. but john mccain, you know, you'd have to defer to him. >> i do. >> i do, too. you want a -- we don't want -- from the bible, don't treat people any differently than you would want our guys treated. and that's what it basically comes down to. although our guys typically -- once again, though, in other parts of the world, our guys are considered terrorists. i don't consider anything that we've ever done to be a rise to the level of a terrorist action. so i would say, you know, our guys deserve to be treated

better than a -- you know -- >> you see how you get into all this nuance? >> yeah. >> the ground on one of those -- >> you can't do it. you can't because it's -- everybody looks -- the perception is different. just because we feel more justified doesn't mean that we are to everybody else. >> i have to say, you know, dianne feinstein in her speech yesterday is justifying the release of this report, said it was about us holding ourselves accountable as a democracy for what we do. and i think that is -- that act in itself is a testament to our values and we fall short and, you know, we keep at it. >> and for democrats, certainly that's a good kind of thick especially when it was perpetrated by the republican administration. at the same time, gruber is testifying. >> even john kerry was concerned about this being released. >> i understand. but what great timing, john. did you have anything to do with this? >> i'm sorry, gruber is a nothing burger and always has

been. >> we'll see if the supreme court feels that way. >> thank you, john. so still to come this morning, two of the nation's biggest home builders posting quarterly results this morning. we will take a snapshot of the sector. then in the next hour, doing ya bank ken lan gone takes a snapshot look at the next year. "squawk box" will be right back.

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time warner chief discusses content supply. >> the demand for program, we make the most of that. we're the biggest producer at warner, turner and hbo of that. that is actually a driver for us. but it's not like sports. it's not a limited supply. if you look at the number of great tv series that are out there, there's twice as many as there were five years ago. >> lucas commenting on his company's decision to turn down rupert murdoch's takeover deal saying it became clear time warner would be better off independent. coming up when we return, raising the roof of the nation's home builders. shares of toll brothers up 12% in the last month. we're going to ask one analyst if good times are just start to go roll. but first, as we head to a break, check out some of the most clicked on tickers on cnbc.com. "squawk box" will return in just a moment.

it's been an uneven year of stocks for home builders, but positive momentum has been building over the last few months. quarterly results out this morning, missing by 2 cents, but the revenue beat the street, and they've seen positive momentum. could the high end home builder make a comeback? joining us now is bob, home building analyst at rbc capital market, and, bob, it's been a

rough year. are we finally turning a corner? >> you know, i would say on a broader basis is the correct asteratias asseration. you have a leader of the pack, lanar, roughly 20% return, horton really strong, and names like toll brothers with weaker performance. the big change this year is home builders move as a pack, but this year, there's variance in returns. heading into 2015, however, we are optimistic thinking the national home builders are well positioned to deliver 15% order growth and 25% epf growth. we like to set up valuations reasonable, interest rates are low. we're on the right track. >> is that changed because of the improving job market? >> absolutely correct, becky. we'll see that the big transformation, six months ago, we were looking at dislocation in the job market. we've had row best job growth and interest rates attractive from a borrower's perspective.

we expect a lot of momentum in 2015, optimistic about the macro setup. we like companies that own lands in california, nevada, arizona, texas, florida, georgia, and the carolinas, you expect to see population growth and job growth that outpace the broader nation providing a large pool of buyers for the new -- for the for sale market, so, absolutely yes, we like what we see next year. >> what players play prom innocently in the horseshoe area? >> the favorites right now going into 2015 is lennar. it's best in class in terms of profitability, huge land positioning possibility in florida, terrific management team and asset base. we like what we see from paulty. the ceo put emphasis on return of capital, and finally, horton,

a builder in texas, has done good work, focused on turning inventory to drive return on equity. that's a very successful strategy. we're also calling for the return of the first time home buyer. we're more aggressive than the peers in the industry on the south side in talking about this, but we think job growth will enable the first time home buyer to reenter the marketplace. >> the numbers this morning, missing earnings by two cents, but momentum's been building in recent months. what do you think of the stock? >> i think they definitely posted a solid quarter. it's a high quality company with a competent management team. currently, the stock is fairly valued. our preferred names are lennar, going into the next year. >> what makes you think that,

really, this is different and they will come back? what was holding them back to this point? >> bottom line, becky, absence of job growth, there's not a recovery in the housing market. we're getting good payroll numbers. hopefully at some point we'll see expansion in the wage pie. we are cautiously optimistic. have not had this good a setup in the housing market in three years. this is an important pivot point looking for this to be an inflection where you start to see the first time home buyer start to surface. we believe that person is currently a renter. we'll see a migration from the rental market to home ownership. we think that's a positive trend, and like i said, it's fully predicated on job growth in the absence of job growth, that's unlikely to occur, but given current trends, we're optimist optimistic. that's why we like the home builders and the home builders with land position in states generating robust job growth.

>> drhorton? >> there's a favorable risk-reward, highly sophisticated real estate developer, not just a sticks and bricks builder, but great management team. we like pulte, a profitable builder in the right locations, and, finally, we like horton in texas. >> thank you, bob. great talking to you. >> thank you so much. >> nevada, bob, nevada. nevada. coming up, this morning's top stories, plus, get this, deutsche bank, the chief u.s. equity strategist, david bianco. on live. pensive there because he has a bold market call. >> he does. >> and then if you've been watching the show, a two hour guest host is area. who is that guy? two hour guest host is rare. >> he never says anything. >> you have to be big. you have to be big, and you got to be important, and you got to

say things that are really interesting, and he fits all of those. years now. thinking about what you want to do with your money? daughter: looking at options. what do you guys pay in fees? dad: i don't know exactly. daughter: if you're not happy do they have to pay you back? dad: it doesn't really work that way. daughter: you sure? vo: are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab. ensure active heart health. i maximize good stuff, like my potassium and phytosterols which may help lower cholesterol. new ensure active heart health supports your heart and body so you stay active and strong. ensure, take life in.

the s&p has a lot of room to run before the next bear market selloff. that is according to deutsche bank's new forecast. we new market targets and sectors poised to do well. >> home depot cofounder is not afraid to speak his mind. thoughts on investing, oil prices, and the battle for the gop presidential nomination. >> nfl set to crack down on personal conduct. a decision process and commissioner goodell's legacy. the second hour of "squawk box"

continues right now. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. the dallas mavericks owner and better known as the star of cnbc's "shark tank," mark cuban telling cnbc that alibaba shouldn't have been allowed to listen to the united states, more on the argument and why he invested in ali ba be at 7:30 a.m. eastern. >> crisis averted for now. congressional negotiators reached a deal to avoid a government shut down on the week lawmakers expected to pass a bill to fund the government for a few more days until a 1.1 trillion dollar spending bill is finalized. that includes language that blocks a voter approved measure to legalize marijuana in washington, d.c. uber's legal department busy

after a lawsuit by portland, and now they are suing the ride sharing service over background checks and fare calllations, and lyft dpraes to pay a half million dollars to settle a lawsuit with san francisco and they promise to change its business practices. traders hope for a santa claus rally to end of the year, checking on the markets right now. a quick picture, what's going on? a mixed picture in asia overnight, shanghai gained a half of yesterday's losses, but japan fell two and a quarter percent after a new survey shows weakening sentiment among japanese manufacturers and another weak number sunday into monday morning, and europe, stocks up marginally in germany, france, and the u.k. the greek stock exchange down again, and, finally, u.s. equity futures, see what's going on ahead of the market open here in the united states. dow jones looks to open down at 21 points, and s&p 500 would

open down as well, off by two points, and nasdaq off three points. >> we ought to do the marijuana in d.c. i mean, why don't we try it? could it get any worse? >> i think they might already. >> right. could it get worse? maybe everybody would be more mellow, willing to compromise. the big gang, bring it back, bring it back to d.c. two earnings reports in the overnight hours ahead of the wednesday session. warehouse retailer costco beat by 3 cents with profit of 1.12 a share with revenue in line with consensus. excludeing fuel, better than expected 7 cents. you heard a lot about the home builders and toll brothers. was that one of them? >> it was. toll brothers out this morning. he did mention -- >> toll brothers was not one of the three. >> pulte, dr horton, and -- >> oh, you're drawing a blank? >> what's the third one?

>> i can't remember. i'm wrong. oh, okay. well, anyway, toll brothers 71 cents a share for the latest quarter, 2 cents short of estimates. revenue did beat forecasts. the company says sales growth is starting to build after remaining flat much of the year. it's the energy department. >> i remember perry's. >> remember those three? >> it was just two minutes ago. >> he drilled us with them. lennar? >> i think so, yeah. joining us more more the markets and predictions for 20 15 is david bianco, and, david, great to see you today. >> hello. >> almost 2015, and we know that you were expected that the s&p will continue to climb next year. tell us about the target. >> good to see you. i think there's a little delay in me hearing you. >> oh, boy. there's a big delay. >> i don't think he heard at

all. i think there's a big delay with david. maybe we can try to fix that. in the meantime, he is expecting stocks to continue to grow in 2015. i think he's looking for 7 to 8 management. [ laughter ] >> that was the bold call just teased? >> well, 21.501 the target, but he has concerns on longer term growth, and i wanted to talk to him about that too. >> you don't think that's a bold call at all? >>. >> we have to sell, but sometimes i feel like i need to shower. coming up, a man never shy about speaking his mind. the home depot cofounder. ken on set, and at 7:30 eastern, the story behind the nfl's story, and then a cnbc survey of millionaires reveal who the

wealthy prefer, who they like in the 2016 presidential race. and "time" magazine set to release person of the year. is it putin? taylor swift? i like theed why of the ebola care giver. those people are different. >> all the people putting themselves -- selfless. >> different than the rest of us. the epitome of the hippocratic oath, and they won't get it. >> i hope they do. >> what about the nurse who came back? >> you're mad at her because she flew? you're not mad? i don't remember.

welcome back, everybody, trying this again. new predictions, david bianco, the chief equity strategist for deutsche bank, joining us again. you can hear us this time, right? >> yes, good to see you, good to hear you. >> excellent. david, tell us about your predictions, what do you expect for the s&p 500? >> constructive for 20 15 and the next few years. i think we'll get mid single digits, upper single digit, total returns of the s&p for another few years, as the u.s. economy continues to grow, and, actually, it accelerates into a faster pace of growth in 2015. it's over 3%, probably 3.5%. we're really stressing as well is getting the sectors and industries right. that's going to be very important in 20 15 as it was in

2014. i like health care and technology. i think it's still too early to buy energy, and i have worries about industrials. >> first of all, let's talk energy. it's too early to buy because you think there is more pain to come? >> yeah. it does seem that the commodity price has more downside in the near term. how much more? hard to know. in until commodity stops falling, and until we have fourth quarter earnings, not reported by energy companies until early february, i need to know leverage of the profitle to the kmdty price as we expect substantial declines in energy sector profits now. >> so, when you look at industrials, what are your concerns that jump out there? >> right, underweight energy and underweight industrials, and the concern with industries is particularly for industrial capital goods. i like transports. industrial capital goods face three big challenges. a slow down in china, which we

think continues, a stronger dollar, which we think it's stronger as the fed likely begins hiking interest rates next year, and we think cap x around the world from the commodity complex and u.s. energy cap x set to decline. >> you don't think the lower energy prices helped china's economy? >> yeah, the lower energy prices help certain emerging economies, certain developed economies as well. japan, china, the u.s., but the industrial companies and a lot of u.s. investment spending is very sensitive to the energy patch, and with what commodity prices have done, the companies will be forced to curtail cap x to maintain cash flow. >> the outlook for 2015 comes with another big term. >> how big? kardashian size? >> sorry, say that again. >> nothing, nothing, nothing.

joking. a joke about the roof. go ahead. >> joking very bad, david, go ahead. >> that's all right. >> the big concern you have over the longer term, that is a concern? >> well, i think for the long term, we're not concerned about, but we're focused on in terms of it is a piece of uncertainty is long term interest rates. we believe they will hike rates and see how ten year treasury yields respond to that. it's most lickly yield does not climb very much. the pe multiples above average can go higher if interest rates stay low as the sickle continues to progress and the economy expands, there's so much uncertainty on interest rates. that's something we are watching. it could be an upside catalyst for more pe expansion or cause the pe to go down from the levels. not worriy eied about it. just need to watch it. >> david, we just had a housing analyst saying it's the time for the turn for housing stocks.

you tell people to be concerned, you tilt away from the u.s. housing stocks? he said it's a jobs market recovery here bringing first time buyers back. what do you think? >> yeah, we like home builders, but we often point out that our preferred plays on accelerating u.s. economies are banks, also exposed to housing, but banks and retailers. i think that's where you're going to see truly strong sales growth in 2015. retailers, and strong earnings growth from both banks, a lot of it from lower litigation, but banks and retailers should deliver double digit earnings growth. i think that is the best way to play the acceleration in the u.s. economy. home builders we like, but there's things we like more. >> okay. david, thanks a lot. thank you. >> thank you. >> crude dropped 40% since june, and that's shaking a number of stocks, but our guest host sees it as a real investing opportunity. we can get that investment case. i'm going to start it with some

other way with ken langange. >> cofounder. >> cofounder. you know retailing. you still got irons in the fire all over the place in the economy. >> yes, i do. >> you know private equity, friends tell you everything that's going on, you're successful, part of the american dream coming from not that much, and i wonder, you were lucky, your wife -- you had nothing, and somehow she -- >> she's it. >> she is. with what you see, we did 300,000 jobs. there is a perception that we have shifted in higher gear in terms of the economy. is that what you hear with the businesses you have? has it happened? are we there? >> no. we'll have a tepid recovery. i'm listening to the progress

kn prognosis for interest rates. they go up. it won't matter. fed has to worry if they try to get rates up and they won't go up, i don't know if you saw the article, the banks want companies' cash out of here. >> because of fees? >> no, because they can't do anything with it. look, we flooded the market with cash the last seven or eight years big time. it's there. one of the reasons the target is robust is this is where you get some yield. now, by the way, with mr. bianco, i have a couple different takes. industrial companies, i think, that offer efficiency and higher productivity, they are great companies. they will do well with caterpillar, emerson, go down the list. >> all benefit from lower oil too. all benefit from lower oil. >> all benefit from lower oil.

>> lower energy. >> but also because they stayed current. they are state of the art. i'm going to give you, for instance, cummins has a new engine coming out, picking up 15 % efficiently. no matter the price of oil, do the math. run 4,000 power unites, average of a hundred thousand miles a year, that's big numbers. >> get back to the economy. you watched it for five years, and it sort of sputtered, and you'll be late when it turns. why do you think it's more of the same? why do you think it's more of the same? >> first of all, we have to do something to get the lower income people to the party. it's not just jobs, joe, it's pay. >> that should start happening with unemployment at 5.8, and wages growing, and the job market tighter, maybe people ask for more. >> joe, small companies create the most number of new jobs. small companies.

the regulatory environment in america today is destructive. one specific instance -- small banks. if you're a small bank, you only pay taxes if you have a profit. but if you have regulatory costs, whether you make a profit or not, you still have them. small banks today don't have a chance because the regulatory costs effectively wipe out the economic reason for existence. i think sales now are interesting. what's driving them? value. deals. price. consumer. >> even lyesterday, there's an uptick in optimism based on the change in the senate. >> yeah. >> you're harping, rightly so, on regulation and probably taxes are the two things you've been attributing the slow growth to for the last five years. isn't the light seen at the end of the tunnel now with the senate coming in in 2016?

>> here's the positive take, my take. the next 25 years belong to the united states of america. they just do. we're going to be more energy self-sufficient, our technology is driving us to levels never dreamed. the big hole in america is education. our current president could have gone down in history as the greatest president in the history of the nation if he had only focused on, say, i'm going to make sure that every kid gets a good education. that's the way to equality and how to participate in the game. we can't hire at home depot or wherever else if they can't write or count. >> he's tried things. he's been more open in that area. >> right. >> he's not total anti-- >> forget charter schools. >> should have focused -- and chuck agreed that maybe obamacare -- unbelievable. >> i like the three of you so much, i'm going to give you a

scoop. >> okay. scoop? all right. >> a big scoop. do you know that there was a bill that was passed regarding student loans around the time that obamacare passed? do you know in that student loan bill students that borrow money, a portion of what they pay for the loans goes to obamacare, billions of dollars. it's amazing. i talked to kim last week at the journal. she never heard of it. it's there. we'll get you all -- the point is, even these students -- i find it ironic, this big noise about guantamino bay, they were deceiving us, he knew what the hell he was saying when he said, we bet on the american people's stupidity. he said it just that way. guess what? this is what's happened with

obamacare. i think the more we open up the can, the more we're going to see that this thing is really a mess. wait until your premiums go up. this is the real hit. anyway, on the other hand, i'm optimistic, but i believe the consumer is more cautious now than i've ever seen. our online commerce company, what do they need? they need deals. they need free shipping. they need two-for-ones. they want value. they want uniqueness. they are not going to spend their fun freely the way we think they are going to because we created 330,000 jobs. >> forget charter schools, but obama has to fix the schools? we know what the issues are. we need accountability, the tenure, do something with that. it's common core. the answer, where are you on that? >> charter schools collectively are a drop in the bucket.

i wish we had more charter schools. i -- >> you have to fix the public schools. >> that's my point, but this president, had he said i'm leaving here, and when i leave here, the reading and the writing competencies of the kids is going to be dramatically -- he had eight years. he could have taken kids from pre-k and going to high school, you could measure it. nothing. >> bush tried too. it's a tough one to figure ought how to do, and republicans have one idea, democrats another how to do it, and it's an intractable issue we need to focus on. >> the excuse they give you, which is the reason we should have more competency in teaching, the excuse is the children come from broken homes, they don't have family support. all those things dictate that the teacher's got to do more for the kids. >> right. >> because they don't have it. >> find places where it works even with that background. do you have the answer, andrew? do your people have the answer for this? >> my people do not have the

answer. >> you wrote a cover for the "new york times magazine." >> there are things to do, i'm a fan of charter schools, there's a lot of things to do, but you have to get on the path now, whatever you do, you won't see the impact for 25 years. it's not something that comes immediately. >> you know, i think -- i have my and ideas about the way that president obama has approached that. i think that those are long term. i think initially, it was better just to do just some -- just some redistributions. start with that. hopefully the economy picks up later. >> one comment, just on ken's scoop, dick morris wrote about this, 8.8 7 billion goes to obamacare, 10.3 billion from the interest payments go to pay down the federal debt, and 36 billion goes to pell grants. >> 8.7 billion. this is something all business

-- >> hold the thought. >> absolutely. >> sure? >> absolutely. i'm here for the duration. when we come back this morning, nfl commissioner, roger gooddell set to unveil a tougher policy, and we interviewed gooddell over several weeks. we'll have the details. time now for today's aflac traif why question. what percent of americans estimate they'll spend more than $1,000 on christmas gifts this year? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues. and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. see why speed matters, at aflac.com.

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what percent of americans estimate they'll spend more than $1,000 on christmas gifts this year? the answer? 25%. >> that's nice. >> looking for new job? glass door is out with the app newel list of best places to work based on employee ratings. google tops the list topping last year's winner. bain dropped to second, and technology companiesing the for the 14 of the top 50. twitter off the list. they were number two last year.

up next, mavericks' owner, mark cuban, why he thinks a alibaba should not be allowed to trade here in the united states. plus, nfl commissioner speaks to the "wall street journal," domestic abuse, and his legacy. >> i don't think in terms of legacy. i had people tell me at various times during my nine years as commissioner, this will be your legacy. i don't know what my legacy will be, and i'm not concerned about it. >> the wall street journal reporter joins us next on the tougher conduct policy. back with that and more in just a moment. moment is right. cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, get medical help right away

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♪ welcome back, everybody, among today's headlines, dreamworks animation plans to launch a 24 hour family focused family channel in 19 asian countries next year, part of the drive to expand production and distribution. andrew hall parts ways with phibro. it's looking to sell overseas operations, and --

>> what? remember when he -- made a hundred million at citi? >> oh, about the pay. >> the financial crisis. >> what he was going to take with him. >> immediately got another job. >> immediately got another job because he was good. >> who we talking about? >> andrew hall. >> not anthony michael hall. >> different guy. >> yeah, different guy. the fed wants the nation's biggest banks to boost capital buffers aims to reduce the potential for future bailouts. joe? >> becky? >> joe? pay attention. >> "time" magazine, the people of the peer, ferguson protesters, ebola care giver, putin, tim cook, taylor swift, the president of the kurdistan region of iraq, roger gooddell, and we'll unveil the winner and talk about the pick with the

"time" managing editor. >> i think there's only five. brian williams had five numbers. taylor swift. >> if, you know, we'll have the person on, but if "time" did not feel they had to be, like, a cultural arbiter of what is significant and pretentious and weighty, i pick taylor swift hands down, but because they do feel that way, i pick the ebola care giver. those people are different. >> looking for heros or people who impacted -- >> i don't know. i don't know. >> they say anybody. the point is, first of all, this started back in the 30s -- >> try to be significant -- >> the point is -- >> "time" magazine now is not significant. it doesn't -- just go with taylor swift. >> see, i think the guy would be putin. >> i say putin. >> i'll tell you why. >> well -- >> the energy prices coming down, it's going to put a squeeze on russia like you can't believe, and we got to remember

why he threw the towel in on the iron curtain. he couldn't afford it. >> the pick is what's most significant and important thing that happened in the past year. >> like i said, it's one step above thor pick the as the sexiest man alive. it's a magazine that's irreleva irrelevant. >> i still read it. >> i know, 20 years ago, it was jfk, when they put the mirror and you were the most -- remember when you, with the little me generation, and then it was the personal computer. the person of the year? it's gotten -- >> by the way, that was the year of the personal computer -- >> it's not a perp. >> corporations are. >> it's supposed to represent the most important sort of thing of the year. >> is that what they say it is? >> we'll talk to nancy. >> i don't know what they say. >> the whole thing started because when he realized -- >> here's a print guy. >> pretentious.

>> it's weighty. important. lasts less than 24 hours. >> they'll admit it. it started because they realized one year the year charles lindberg made the flight he was not on covers, so they had a reason why to put him out there, he's not had a cover yet. >> the half-life is less than 24 hours of the news cycle. who was last year? alec baldwin? >> that's how important they were? >> i know. >> it's like high school. >> hook, line, and sinker. >> you remember thor, the sexiest man in the world, "people" magazine, right? same thing. >> that should be called entertainment today. >> that's what it is. >> all they write about -- they write about who sleeps with who and who got pregnant six times without a husband. aren't human beings more than

that? >> for better or worse, we are not. >> this is not different. yet they feel weighty like it's a drum roll, person of the year, that's a 24 hour. >> way to make our guest feel comfortable. >> plenty of guests out there. >> now you're on a rabbit rapt. >> me? >> i agree. >> i'm on a rapt all the time. >> can we have a sound bite? >> i will not drop it. >> a bomb? it's cable. >> come on. >> no. no. i got to remember i was with the cardinal last night. >> we'll talk about a gentleman who is the on potential list for time man of the year, also on the front page of the wall street journal this morning, nfl with an owners' meeting today

where the commissioner unveils a tougher personal conduct policy. he talked to the wall street journal over the course of the several weeks titled "nfl's roger goodell seeks to right the past wrongs," and good morning to you, monica. >> good morning. >> you've been listening to the conversation. firstful all, should he be "time" man of the year? >> i doubt he's "time" man of the year, don't you? >> i highly -- i would think it's highly suspect if he were to be. you did spend weeks with him. we'll hear more from him today about his plan, how impactful do you think this new plan will be in terms of winning back, not the owners in league with him still, but the fans? >> well, it's interesting. i went to a game with him at metlife stadium between the giants and the cowboys, and the fans are still, like, roger, come here, roger, come here. >> absolutely.

>> wanting to fist bump him and photos, and i went to the fans, and i said, what do you think about him? oh, he's lying about not seeing the video of ray rice, or some are like, he's a great commissioner. the fans are split about him. although, they treat him like a celebrity. he has a bobble head doll for heaven's sake, but this has put him in a harsh spotlight he's not acustomed to. >> monica, was there a moment during the period you were with him where he thought he was really under threat in terms of the owners not being with him? there's a moment in the piece where you talk about him working the donees, talking to various owners, and jeff at one point giving him a phone call, saying he needs to apologize and get out in front of it. have we made too much of it? too little of it? >> i think that he never felt threatened he'd lose his job. he needs to be out front and take the heat. that's what they pay him $45 million a year to do.

however, i think that he has to transform himself and will now start the process today of transforming the nfl to take the issue of domestic violence seriously. when he gave ray rice the initial two game suspension, he thought he was being what the nfl was used to doing. i had internal documents that showed that for the last several years, the most they gave typically was a one game suspension for domestic violence. he did not really get it at the beginning as to why there was all this from the public. i have to say over the course of the last few weeks, he surrounded himself with a lot of domestic violence policy experts, and he is learning how he really got it wrong. he said to me, i blew it. when i was hanging out at the nfl, which is a very macho place, there were women now in the office sitting in big oversized chairs where ex-football players normally sit, and they were coming in and out of the office teaching him

how policy and how domestic violence really should be handled. he's about to unveil today to the owners in dallas a policy that will probably be the toughest in america. >> hey, monica, the push back, though, is already coming from the union. what will he be allowed to do? what will the players go with? ray rice fighting what the punishment that he had dulled out to him as well. what happens? >> that's right. becky, he is -- he has the power, actually, to push it through. the personal conduct policy is his own. it's not part of the collective bargaining agreement. however, the union is opposed to it. he -- the union says it should be part of the collective bargaining agreement, so we'll see how the union fights it. the union was in the office with him a couple weeks ago, and they walked out. >> what was his reaction to the decision last month by that indent arbitrator on the ray

rice case? you speak at the end about rice's wife calling goodell dishonest, but what was his reaction to the judgment? >> to the judgment, he says he accepts it but disagrees with parts of it. i take it to mean he disagrees with the part that he should have known how -- that ray rice was actually that violent in the video -- in the elevator, but he took the second video as ef as a reason to go from a two game suspension to indefinite suspension. i think that's what he disagrees with, but he uses that as new ammunition for his increased penalty. >> monica, number one, i know roger very well. he's a very humble, decent, hard working man. there's nothing in roger's makeup that wouldn't make you want to admire him, not one thing. i'm a little curious, we make all this noise and domestic violence is not bad.

it's horrible. what about what goes on in schools with teachers and their students, whether it's consensual or not, where's the outrage when you send a child to school, you hope and pray they go to a safe place. as much noise as we make, look, i think roger's big mistake that after more came out, say, sorry fellas, i dealt with it. whether i did it right or wrong -- that's what the arbitration panel said effectively, double jeopardy. i think roger really thought he was doing the right thing. that said, it's clear there was double jeopardy. you don't send a guy to two years and say, oh, by the way, you're bark in for six more. where's the american people -- this is outrageous, but so is how our children are treated in schools. >> well, i think you're making an important point that roger goodell made to me is that the nfl's statistics are not good.

i had internal documents showing there's 135 cases or charges brought since 2000, however, there are more cases in other industries. i don't know about schools and others, but here's the point that roger good e made to me. the nfl is held to a higher standard. he accepts that and will work from the high standard. >> and he should be commended for that. >> monica, there was the -- there was the before for all of us, and there was the video, and then there was the after, and i think all of us were, like, woah, you heard about it, but seeing is different. >> by the way, he's done a great job as commissioner, apart from this, a fabulous commissioner. >> as you said, he is well paid for it. >> why not? if they have the money, do what they want. >> don't yell at me. >> i've seen the man transform from someone who kind of didn't get it at the beginning to really trying to change and be a

complete leader in the area. >> monica was with him when he went to a hot line, a crisis hot line answering the phone calls, and after, he was shaken up, got wine, and said, forget it, i need a stiff drink. >> that's right. >> after hearing the stories. >> that's right. >> monica, thanks again. >> thank you. great piece. >> we should talk about dallas maveric mavericks' owner, mark cuban, getting the chance to sound off on the scc in las vegas. speaking with melissa lee on "closing bell," topics turned to the ipo and whether it should have even been listed in the united states. >> should they turned alibaba ba away? >> yes. >> should not list in the u.s.? >> no. if you're -- at least the chinese operations, right, if you're hosting based in a communism country where the only rule of law is what the

communist party says it is, how can you enforce any type of law at all? >> still, cuban owns shares of alibaba and call himself a hypocrite saying he teals the scc kuz not matter, and it's another stock to trade or invest in. look at shares, down 63 cents, but there's a rise from the ipo months ago. up next on "squawk backseat," exclusive data on millionaires and who the wealthy want for president. they are expecting a "back to the future" race in 20 16. look at the screen. there's a hint. it's the season for charity. the top givers in 2014 revealed after this. act i. scene 3.

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(announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we rebuilt scottrade elite from the ground up - including a proprietary momentum indicator that makes researching sectors and industries even easier. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. it's the season for charitable giving, there's a list of ten largest philanthropic donations of 2014. warren buffet takes the number one spot giving 2 .1 billion to the bill and melinda foundation.

the second is nickwoodman, giving $500 million to the silicon valley. and eight of the top ten were gifts to universities. next presidential election is over a year and a half away, but america's top millionaires voted for a favorite candidate. cnbc's wealth editor robert frank has the findings from the second millionaire survey. robert? >> cnbc millionaire survey, polling 500, split between democrats, republicans, and independentings. they are politically active. 93% voted. a quarter of them give money to candidates, and 15% give money to super pacs. when asked who they support, no surprise the top choice of hillary clinton, getting 31% of the total of all millionaires, jeb bush is second with 18%, and chris christie, and scott walker

a fourth. drill down by party, by party, hillary clinton gets three quarters of the democratic millionaires, one quarter of independents, and 5% of the republican millionaires. jeb is the top pick for all republican millionaires at 36% of gop millionaire votes, but christie gets more independent votes than any other gop candidate. now, when we asked what should the focus be for the next president? the top pick for millionaires was taxes and government spending. that was followed by political gridlock and the economy. we asked about congress, and millionaires say the top priority for congress should be corporate tax reform. they were bipartisan on that for democrats and republicans. we have a lot more from our findings today on the cnbc.com/millionaire-survey. there's a lot on how they invest own how they feel about the economy and where they put their

hundred money and what stocks they buy. >> what's a millionaire, robert? total net worth? not income, right? >> total net worth minus rez dens. it's the top 10%. >> 10%, okay. >> 10%. what's interesting is how politically involved and important these guys are to elections, but the past two elections, we have backed republicans candidates who lost. they are not exactly the best predictors, do not bet on the winning horse every time. the -- >> you know what else, just to keep in mind is that we know the democratic candidate, and you are splitting the vote, like -- >> 43% and 31%. >> when it comes down to head to head, you add up the three republicans to take it on. >> we'll do it again in six months and again closer to the elections so when we get a gop

candidate, we'll have a better matchup as to how, you know, who they would vote for. >> ken? >> christie. your observation on independents, christie made a remark last year, we need to go where we don't normally go and where we're not comfortable. look what he did with the latino vote, tripled the vote with the minoritie minorities, won the women's vote running against a woman. my wish is that jeb, mitt, carson, and chris all run. that's going to keep a lot of these panders and midgets out of the race like last time. >> jeb and kristie, who gets the nod? >> christie. >> over jeb bush? >> i think america is ready for the truth and direct talk. we've been misled, not only by this -- look, look -- don't look at my record. i had dole, he didn't make it.

julianneny, he didn't make it, romeny didn't make it, mccain, he didn't make it. >> maybe you should just shut up. >> no, no, i'm due for a win! this is my moment to be perfect. >> all right. >> i think the american people are ready for directness and candor. >> is that where your money's going, just to christie? >> here's where i am. i do everything i can for the governor to get the nomination. >> governor christie? >> whoever gets from the republican party, i'm in. >> got it. >> okay? >> back to the 43-31. >> okay. when we return, the time person revealed, and manufacturing in the so-called rust belt making a comeback all thanks to fracking. that's coming up at 8:15 a.m. eastern time. we return in just a moment.

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"time" magazine announces the ebola fighters are the 2014 person of the year. the issue featuring doctors, nurses, care givers, and ambulance drivers and others. putin with the second spot, and we debated who should get it all morning, and we're in agreement we like this. >> i love it. >> that's the one we wanted, yeah. >> there you have it. if you're going to go through the exercise at all, here it is. >> right. >> i like taylor swift. i do. see, i think -- because --

>> diminishing the role of the ebola -- >> depends whether "time" magazine think it's a high minded cultural arbiter of what's important. i don't grant them that that's what they had. >> you still wanted this. >> i did. >> they are more like "people," if you pick the sexiest man alive, you don't pick steven hawking because he was smart. that's what time would do for the sexiest man. it's a tabloid. >> you would be behind in that. >> it's a 24 hour half-life. >> i can't wait for nancy to join us. >> a tabloid exercise with a 24 hour half-life. if they want to feel important, but it is the one time of year we say time magazine a year. it's like 365 days. that's it. >> wow, that's harsh. >> when we come back, opec cuts, cutting the 2015 demand forecast. stick around. we'll be right back.

too late for a santa claus rally? is there a reason to cheer over the next few weeks, or if oil's slide is too much a grinch for investors? >> crisis averted for now.

lawmakers reach a short term deal to avoid a government shut down. former congressman, ford, talks business and washington. >> the "time's" person of the year unveiled. walking through the finalists and their pick as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box," first in business worldwide. a big deal for the chicago landing the free agent, six years, 165 million. >> wow. >> see whether they make it into the hall of shame in the "new york times" for the ceo's salary. lester with the highest salary in baseball. >> free market, my friend, free

market. >> unlike ceos. the giants to land one the best pitchers in baseball. >> still makes less than roger goodell. >> yes. >> a big paycheck, right here. >> right there. don't point here. congress reached a deal for a 1 $1.1 trillion spending deal, and opec cut the demand for oil blaming weaker consumption, and shale prices now, wti crude, 62.56 is the price, and mortgage applications rise in the last week, the big driver is refinancing demands. >> oil prices down another 2% today. >> yeah. >> what the heck does that mean? today's stock to watch, earnings at toll brothers misses by 2 stsz, but the revenue beat the street's expectations. we'll talk to the analyst who

covers the home builders later this hour. yum brand cuts the second time. blaming a slower than expected sales recovery in china. they are trying to bounce from a food safety scare this summer. costco with better than expected sales. promotions boosted shares. the donut chain's revenue short of estimates, although limited time offers boosted customer traffic. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. check it out. the futures this morning have been looking a little weak. of course, this comes, the morning after the dow finally put two back-to-back days of losses together for the first time since mid-october. the dow is down 54 points, weaker than we started this morning. yesterday, the dow was down 220 points before rebounding, and came back to end the day, down by 50 points, s&p futures down 6.5 points and nasdaq off 11

points. europe, now, there's green arrows for germany, france, and london. greece, though, down another 3% this morning. that market just getting crushed. if you check out what happened in asia, though, there was a rebound in china after big declines from the beginning of the week. the shanghai up 3%, the nikkei closing down at 2 %. >> a check at the real leaders of the s&p 500. how much weight do you think the energy sectors hold over the index? dom is splitting that pie. >> some twitter remarks and feedback whether or not we had numbers right with regard how big tech and financials were. we wanted to set the record straight. we went back to s&p indexes, owning the dow jones industrial index, look at just how much we have in terms of the sector break down. we told you over the past couple days, this is the bulk of it.

you see as we shade out just tech and financials, you talk about, oh, 36, 37% in terms of the total weighting of the sectors. by far, the biggest components of the overall index. talk about why we can still be 2% away from record highs in both the dow and s&p despite the fact that energy's taking the huge tumble that it has. because energy, it's very important to our economy, very important to the overall index, but mathematically speaking, you can see here, it makes up 8% of the overall index. it's not carrying nearly as much heft as the technology in financials do. it's half the size of the financial sector. now, to put it in more perspective, materials, utilities, telecommunication services, they were hit bad yes. look at this. if you put all three of these sectors together, these were important sectors. all of them together are 8.5%. tell comm the megacaps like verizon and

at&t makes up 2 % of the index. look at the leadership in the market. sometimes some industries and groups have a lot more of an rs financials and technology stocks as the indicator for up or down markets for what could be a santa claus rally. >> thank you very much. yesterday, squawk market master said that he expects a 10% correction next year. >> people say, wait for the correction. they wait, wait, wait, market's up 20%, 30%, 40%. at some point, yes, it goes down 10%, but that's still going to be 30% higher than when you first said i'm waiting for that correction. that's a fallacy of that strategy wait for the correction. i think we're going to have one, not certain, could have one next year burks the market could be up 15% or 18% before that happens. >> he's bullish, remains that

way for 2015. joining us now, another bullish voice, the chief investment strategy at bmo capital markets, and ken lengone, thank you for being here today. >> thank you, good morning. >> i saw head nodding with you and ken when jeremy siegle talked about this, the correction, but could be higher. >> remember in october the market went down 9.9% and everybody got what they looked for? the predominant call and e-mails i got from clients, oh, i can't buy now, could go down further. >> right. >> no. this is in a big bull market. it's back to old time hockey, coach, put me in, skate with the puck, shoot the puck. what's happening is two steps forward, one step back. 20 15. 15 is more volatile because investors deal with increased

data from em and europe that's going to be shaky. trying to time the fed. i think more importantly, though, the majority of the clients in america have underperformed at an unbelievably horrible rate, meaning 12% of the managers in america out perform meaning 88 % are not. that means they have to change that behavior, and that behavior's mostly following the crowd, indexing, and really being reactive in terms of their positions, and that's why people, i think, got the market so wrong this year, and that's why we believe that more and more investors will be transitions to active investing and fundamental investing causing volatility in 2015. >> this put me in, coach, idea, do you enter put me in coach today where the market is, or is there so much volatility you wait for a better entry point? >> no. we're long term investors. i don't think anybody, anybody can time the market. if there's a strong fundamental discipline, buy stocks. he's the way to think about it. if you run a 35 to 50 stock, i

consider 3 % a full position. market goes up, 4%, guess what? peel back the position to 3. goes down, core position goes to 2, 2.5%, you buy. if you're in full belief north america is leading the fundamental charge of equities, you use the market's trends to your advantage and most importantly, you use fear and emotion on both sides to lead your portfolio. >> you're a megabull. that's what i want to just hone in on. how many years do you think that in general the trend is -- you said, like, 20 years? >> five and a half into a 20 year bull. this is the largest health bull market of the collective career. >> is there a 20 % pull back? a bear in the middle? >> a correction, joe -- >> no, a bear market, a 20% break or 10%? >> tough to say. we could have an -- >> semantics. we're back to buying?

>> we entered the peter lynch era of investing. fundamentals matter. >> absolutely. >> high quality growth. >> balance sheets, income statements, dividends, growth prospects. if you miss eight or nine days a year in a given stock, you miss 90%. don't -- take depot for instance. >> office depot? >> home depot. don't be a wise ass. from 2004 to 2008, it did nothing. it's tripled. over ten years, not the last six, you've done very, very well. anyone who knew home depot knew -- by the way, i got to tell you something, what a blessing he's been. he's retired, of course, and, by the way, his success is first class. think about stocks in terms of -- warren buffet has it

nailed. i buy one share of stock, i bought the whole business. i'm in that business. when i look at -- we're doing a lot of work now in startups, and we're very excited, worried, because we maybe in a wave of euphoria, look back, and say, what the hell did we think about paying $10 billion prevaluation for markets -- >> we are caught up in the notion of smart guys and smart money, right? smart guys try to time the market. that's a fool's game. >> absolutely. >> because we're chasing and doing what everybody else is doing. we now lost in the investment world this whole notion of independent thought and leadership, and it's also symptomatic of what's going on in the country, but it's happening with respect to investing, and that's why those that are out performing, becky, are really outperforming because they are sticking with their bets. they are using fundamentals to lead the portfolio. they'll help lead the charge with respect to u.s. stocks. >> give me a thought.

slumber jay is at a better price with lower oil because there's less margin for mistakes. the more knowledge on getting the oil, this argues to me that they with a decent yield and great balance street and fabulous prospects. >> is with us the rest of the morning, and brian, thank you. >> i love bulls. >> we'll talk to nanty about the person of the year, and the exercise itself is crazy, but if we had to -- if we were assigned the exercise, time did a great job. put putin in there, obviously, pop culture had to be taylor swift. i would have begin it to the ebola care givers and ferguson and did they get the business? the two business guys? right, absolutely. i'm going to name the cnbc business person of the year. tim cook was a runner up, and

jack ma, he was in there. overall, nancy, may have said things earlier that were disparaging, but great job, that's my pick for the business person of the year. do you have a different one? you would -- you're hurting that edward snowden did not get it. still snowden? >> no. i'm going to give it to tim cook. i might -- just because of the stock performance. >> he's done a hell of a job too. >> might give it to him. that company. >> we knew about him. >> we did. >> jack ma rempresents 20 14. that's possibly right db. >> i'm going with tim. >> yeah, cook. >> i love jack ma. i do, i love what he's done, what's come out with this. >> it's more international. >> this is what they said around doing this, but this is the year that tim cook really finally showed all the doubters all these years. >> has he? >> absolutely. >> absolutely.

>> there are things that are add-ones already in the pipe. we don't know until the watch -- until the car, and until the tv. >> i appreciate his essay he wrote this year. >> yeah. >> speaking on social issues. >> absolutely. >> on the social role. if you wrap that in, that's fine. >> i'll give him that. >> i'm still sticking with jack ma. we don't know what the future brings. this company could be a trillion dollar company eventually with 50% margins. >> and then we have the opportunity to give it to him. ja ma later when we know. >> don't you want to be ahead of the curve rather than responding to things? pete rose, had a street named before the gambling stuff. once the third largest steel city reinventing itself, and later, politics and the economy, "time" magazine, they had cook and ma. i hand it to them. really, the prin yell person

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welcome back, everybody, watching the futures this morning, and the dow is down by 50 points, weaker than we started the morning, but better

than we were sitting at this point yesterday. s&p down by six and a half points, and nasdaq down noun. >> for decades, the region known as the rust belt, known as decay, and they fled for warmer and cheaper climates, but there's evidence of a comeback, once the largest third largest steel producer, good morning, scott. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. when we think about black monday, we think about the stock market crash in 1987. in youngstown, they look ten years earlier to 1977 when the local steel plant shut down putting thousands of people out of work. eventually, this city's population plunged by almost two-thirds from its high of 177,000, about 60,000 people today, unemployment in the recession was at 12 preponderate 5%, coming down since then, but they saw better days and worse.

the reason? this area sits on top of two shale formations, and if you want to drill and frack for shale oil and natural gas, you need steel tubing. valerex star spend a billion to stem the piping plant, building a threading plant for the same steel, but what do we know about fracking? the price of oil is down, economics are changing. ohio's governor, john casic is taking the long view. >> i don't worry about falling oil prices with the shale revoluti revolution. things come faster, slower, but at the enof the day, there's gold in them there hill. the companies are in here. >> reporter: the issue, though, is not just the fact that the economics are changing, but that this part of the country, ohio

and pennsylvania, still higher costs than the other fracking area, and so, again, nay are looking at changing economics that could put a damper on this rust belt rebound. later today, we'll talk to the company about the economics, and tomorrow, we'll be in columbus, ohio to talk about how states like ohio are trying to stem the brain drain. of course, more on this at cnbc.com. guys? >> hey, scott, it's very early on that we've seen the lower prices, just trying to figure out how it's going to be hurting capital expenditures from the oil companies, but do you get the sense from people in town they are worried about it too? >> reporter: i think -- yeah, i think you're right, it's early yet. the expansion has not slowed down. again, they spent a billion dollars to enlarge their plant last year. they are building another plant to create more jobs, so i think they, too, like the governor, they are taking the long view about this, but the economics come into play, the costs come into play, and it'll be interesting to see as we always

look at the top states for business, we look at costs, it'll be interesting to see how the different areas of the country that are involved in fracking compete and who wins. >> all right, scott, thank. we'll see you a little later today. our guest host this morning is ken langone. we have not talked about the oil prices and what it means for states like this and ohio. >> pittsburgh's booming today. 4.5% unemployment. downtown cleveland, kids are moving back in like you can't believe. there's bright spots, and i think the rust belt, so they call it, i think there's great opportunities there. >> industrials the same thing? >> looking at eaton, two cleveland companies, emerson's a st. louis company, cummins, an indiana company. go down the list. there's a lot of good things going on. that said, we're going to have a rough patch in the next three to five years. >> you mean from an economic

perspective or stock market perspective? >> yes. we have to figure out a way to get all this money back in. it's out there now. when you do it, it is not going to be without pain. i don't see interest rates doing anything dramatic, and people i respect feel the same way, but there are opportunities in america today, you may have to look a little more, but i think businesses are much better run. i go back to my one concern, the regulatory environment in america is destructive for business. not bad, destructive. small companies will not be anyone to afford the cost, and many of the regulations are not necessary. they are not needed. they don't do anything to make life better. they are vigorous politicians saying stick this in, stick that in. small banks, for example, are gone. they have not got a chance of one day growing into being a kpe tor. >> the problem is small banks make loans to small businesses. >> and so regulatory issues are

counterproductive in terms of competition. you know, you got to make it tougher and tougher to get people to grow big enough to compete with jp morgan and wells. so -- but we'll wake up. i'm absolutely convinced for right now at the bottom in the valley of the regulatory insanity. i call it insanity. jack walsh talked about it. he's right. >> how much regulation versus taxes? >> i care less about taxes, know why? you only pay tax when you make money. i'm a new york state resident. why? because that's where i was born. i love it this. i love my home. i pay taxes. it's like giving money to a charity. it taxes you only pay if you make. regulatory costs, you may whether you make or not. >> give to a charity, they do

better use than politicians who piss it away. you got me saying a bad word. >> that's okay. >> okay. >> 26 77 billion, jack ma, just turned 50, 267 billion from 0. that's doubling -- not doubling something in a year that was already there. now, the tim cook, as a role model -- >> role model? >> terms of all that, in terms of the -- >> not as a ceo? >> as a pure business person, i got to go with jack ma. i do. sorry. coming up, i may reconsider buying a ultra high definition televisions now. find out why. that's one reason. later, time magazine -- >> where are you? >> nancy gibbs on the magazine's person of the year. persons, care giverings of the year. >> where were you in that picture?

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joe, this is for you. listen up. if you were holding off on buying an ultrahigh def television because there's nothing to watch in ultrahigh deaf other than joe, reconsider. amazon has a catalog of movies and television shows that stream in 4k. programming available to prime

members. they plan to expand offering in weeks. look at shares of amazon today on that news, one of the many things they -- >> wait a second -- >> nothing -- >> you can see even collier than what we see? >> yes. >> it's crazy. >> nothing streams in 4k. tvs are ready, but there's nothing to show it. the other thing, need buffering on that. a lot of data. a lot of data. >> there's harold ford that talk about the negotiation that's seemed to have been reached.

i got to come back from this. welcome back, everybody. this is "squawk box," and this is what is making headlines. detroit set to announce exit from bankruptcy in a morning news conference. the city's emergency manager resigned after steering detroit through 2 1 months of bankruptc operations. profits should total 19 preponderate 9 billion this year, according to the international air transport association, that's 10% above forecasts. speaking of the falling prices,

the government says that gasoline should average $2.60 a gallon next year, 23% less than this year. >> ken, have you found traveling on commercial -- no, kidding, never mind. congressional leaders launching, reaching a spending deal, but the details need to be ironed out if they do not pass a larger bill. there could be a smaller package to avert shut down. joining us is a former u.s. congressman, harold ford, you're a friend, harold, a tv star, vice chairman. i still call you congressman, i think, right. >> and other things too. >> i do, only in a loving way. >> don't call him late for dinner. >> not late for dinner. you know, harold, talk about this, the -- obviously, we're probably not going to shut down the government, but in -- what i'd like to hear from you, as a -- as a blue dog -- i still refer to you as a true blue dog.

given that i have not talked to you since the election, what do we do for the next two years? what did the election tell mfune country wants to see the government working. they want to get beyond the silly, unraveling, backwards looking approaching and the fighting that takes place. i'm encouraged somewhat by the spending bill. looks to have achieved a move beyond impasse. the move they fund now through september says two things. one, we have a dysfunctional way in funding the government waiting by the end of the year allowing a few people in a room to cobble together things, but, two, this new senate, the new republican majority should appreciate it because now they have the opportunity to focus on tax reform and energy reform and hopefully they'll stay away from trying to undo the health care act, which i think would be very, very difficult to do politically and poison the well.

if i'm mitch, i view it as a win. you have an opportunity with a clean slate from the beginning of the year. politically, republicans in the proposed agreement limit funding for the department of homeland security for a few months because republicans want to take shots at the president around his executive action on immigration. aside from that, i'm hopeful that this means we can get off to a clean slate and address issues that your guest hosts and some of you raised this morning on the show. >> harold, you might be confused or something. you're on with the other morning joe. you don't need to temper your comments here for a certain audience, and when i lobbed you the softball about what the election means, you give me the take that methamphetamipeople w washington in general? did you listen to our senator, chuck schumer, he said it. can you speak to the divide between the blue dogs and the

elizabeth warren part of the party now? >> there's no doubt there's a growing chasm between -- you hear people voicing concerns, and reid believes the rollout of the health care act, the obama act -- i had issues with the beginning, i was on the show sharing that. that's why democrats lost. there's a number of factors, no doubt that people were concern that the white house was mismanaging part of the foreign policy, had not managed ebola in the most efficient of ways. a number of things. no doubt the big color behind it all was whether government and health care was working. >> when the president said two-thirds did not vote, i'm with them -- >> i thought that was wrong. >> like he didn't say one thing to him. we heard in the past that elections matter when he wins them, but this did not matter to him at all, and it seems like he's doubled down and dug the heels in. ken langone is here. >> hi, sir. >> one of the big issues in '16,

in my opinion, is confidence. it's important who gets the job done, but harold, go back to obamacare. if premiums continue to go up, and they will, and the number of lives covered do not approach what we hope they would be, and the price -- the cost to the insured of what they pay from their pocket before insurance kicks in goes up, i'm not saying you wipe it out, but you're going to have to do a radical adjustment to the way it's put together. now, think -- now, what we now know to be fact, that kids who are getting loans to go to college, part of what they pay is being used to subsidize obama care, 8.7 billion, okay? we didn't know these things. this is classic bait-and-switch. how do we fix it? >> look, i don't deny there's

parts maybe material parts in some instances, like the medical device tax, which they need to repeal right away. >> of course. >> as we dig deeper in every bill, every new law, every piece of legislation, particularly regulatory things, things that are working, double down on things that are not working, scale back. and i think this president and democrats in the senate and house, and it's increasingly aparent there's democrats in the snth willing to reopen the books and make changes to ensure that we achieve what we wanted to achieve from the health care act, which was to provide people with coverage, lower costs in the long term, and improve the efficiency, the delivery fs efficiency in the country. where it's not happen, i agree, ken, fix them. hopefully this president, if he does not agree to it, i think now with the minority leader in the senate, harry reid, and basically the number two leader in the senate on the democratic side, chuck schumer, saying the health care act, obamacare, was the reason democrats could not get things done in the senate they wanted for middle class

voters and americans, and reid say the rollout was a big, big part of why we lost. there's an openness on some democrats to do things you just shared. >> wouldn't it be nice if chuck and reid said what they said now two years ago? wouldn't be politically correct. >> you don't cop to it until you get the big losses. >> the point is for the sake of the american people. >> when does that start? >> how bad is it going to be for the people we're trying to help? >> well, in fairness to both reid and schumer, they did not necessarily providing health coverage and the way that the president sought to do it was necessarily a bad thing, but schumer said the timing was off, and reid made the point that the white house should have been better prepared and better organized in what they did. now, your point, ken, is like it's more material to it. you believe there's fundamental challenge. the student loan thing, i didn't know that until this morning until i heard that. >> how about that. >> that is fascinating.

that's one area republicans and democrats will look more closely at. >> harold, do you have -- we were talking off camera about how many bills the president may get at this point. he's not had to veto much legislation because nothing's been sent to him, but number one, do you think there's a lot of legislation sent, and is there anything that you think he'll sign that republicans could come up with for two years? it just seems like, are we all just biding time to see what happens? that's not a way to run a country, but we are. things are going along pretty well anyway. >> i hope the president gets a keystone pipeline bill to the desk, a repeal of the medical device tax, and a tax reform bill, even if it's modest or narrow tax reform bill only dealing with the tax inversions even they are concerned about and others on the democratic side are concerned about. i hope they get a trade promotion authority, republicans provide that to the president right away. the country deserves the kind of

fight that -- if the president wants to veto something, he should veto it, and provide republicans with an alternative, and if republicans and democrats overturn the veto, do that. we have not had, to your point, the president properly engaged in executive order than bill signing for a variety of reasons. i hope he gets three, four, five pieces of legislation to his desk in the first three months of the new year. >> haey, harold, if we were easier for you to get in studio with, if we were to, let's say, based in manhattan somewhere, would you sign an exclusive type of arrangement with the single network? would you consider it at some point if we talk about this, not here, but -- >> i would let mr. langone negotiate it. >> that's a good -- that is smooth. >> i'll make you an offer you can't turn down. welcome to the republican party. >> oh, yeah. >> wow.

>> i love what you're saying. i hope we can get that kind of philosophy -- we december pra y -- desperately need it. >> we need it for the republican party. >> i agree. >> by the way, the republican congress needs just that. >> he didn't answer whether he'd sign. he want options open. he's omni media. >> don't say yes, harold, do not say yes. >> how much would he get? >> harold, you'd be in studio. >> it's not about the money. it's about the influence he would wield. harold, see you soon, next week, i think, in fact. merry christmas, everything else. >> merry christmas, harold. >> thank you, sir. >> why ebola fighters are person of the year, and how the magazine ranked other finalists like putin, swift, and jack ma. all of that when we return in just a moment. the popularity ofs

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welcome back. the nfl holding an owner's meeting today where the commissioner will unveil a tougher personal conduct policy in the wake of the ray rice and other things that happened in the nfl. now, earlier in the program, we spoke to the "wall street journal," monica langley has an article, seeking to right past

wrongs, and here's her thoughts on goodell's job on managing the situation. >> i think that he never felt threatened that he was going to lose his job. his job with the nfl owners is to be out front and to take the heat. that's what they pay him $45 million a year to do. however, i think that he has had to transform himself and now will start the process today of transforming the nfl to take the issue of domestic violence seriously. when he gave ray rice the initial two game suspension, he thought he was being the -- what the nfl was used to doing. >> go ahead. ken? you want to respond to anything you heard? >> look, i'll say it again. roger is a fine man, great job as commissioner, and i think he probably would look back and say, i shouldn't have had the second bite of the apple. he made the decision and had to live with it, but i think what

he does if the nfl in terms of a business, he does a fabulous job. >> my sources, some of my sources, tell me that are you doing well in fantasy football for the first time ever? >> i'm in the finals, fellas. >> you're in the finals? >> talking on paul jones. >> wow. >> how much is at stake in the game? >> a lot of money. all for charity. >> what number? >> a big number. >> give us the number. >> look, i don't want to do that. >> from my sources -- >> how much? >> well, my sources -- one of the sources, this particular source was one of the largest philanthropists -- >> seven or eight figures? >> we're talking a lot of money. >> eight figures? eight figures? >> to me, six figures is a lot of money. >> no, for you eight. >> yes, it's -- >> you don't get up for 8 figures. >> i'll kill you for a nickel if it's a good cost. you're wrong. >> who gets the money?

>> i get some because i end up in second place. >> what charity is the beneficiary of this? >> the restoration of st. patrick's cathedral. >> who else is up there in the lead now? >> i'm paying paul tudor jones the next two sundays -- >> who did you pick doing well for you? >> stafford. i hired three advisers whose average age is 33. >> how much did you pay the advisers? >> nothing. one works for me. >> you made up with pope francis too? >> i think pope francis is fabulous. i love the man. >> all right. >> my issue is america is the most philanthropic country on earth, he knows nothing about us. if he did, he wouldn't have been generic in talking about wealthy people. >> sounds like things are great. >> they are. >> talking football charity in a moment, but roger goodell was one of many finalists of the 20

14 perp of the year, but in the end, the ebola fighter takes person of the year. nancy gibbs joins us, hopefully you missed comments made in the program. there were a lot -- >> i said she did a great job. >> they were back and forth. a lot of debate about who should win, but how do you land here? >> as the year went on and the outbreak, the worst in history, really showcased both how unprepared the world is to cope with the epidemic like this, and, therefore, how dependent we were on the people who were willing to fight it, and fight at huge personal risk. >> right. >> this is an amazingly dangerous disease and record numbers of health care workers died of it. >> those people are fundamentally different than the rest of us, nancy. we would be running so scared at such a frightening disease, and to think you'd be there -- i

mean, if you heard someone was on a plane you happened to get on, you know how you feel there, think of walking into the room ten times a day and bathing and cleaning. those people are different. you got the right choice here. >> i think you do. >> it's extraordinary. what was striking is the first respond ers in the field in africa in the spring sounding the alarm that it's dangerous, spreading fast, and the level of denial and resistance that they ran into, they were accused of crying wolf and told, you know, don't insight panic even though it is spreading. as a drill about preparedness, this did not go well. >> nancy, what is the time person of the year supposed to be? one of our conversations this morning was sort of what is the -- what is the essence of what this selection really means? >> it's the person who, for better or for worse, had the most influence on the news this year, which is why we took a hard look at putin, at the

protesters from ferguson and the other incidence of police violence, at jack ma in the biggest ipo in history. you know, we looked at a lot of people in many fields whose influence is manifested in different ways. >> joe wanted swift, right? taylor swift, sorry. >> that's her name. i have a problem with the exercise itself. i think it's -- i don't know. you know, but it is what it is. once you're going to do it, i think you hit pop culture because it would be taylor swift. that's absolutely astounding, her influence, and business, we agree. you can't leave putin out. and the other two. once you agree to engage in what i think is -- i don't know, it's almost, you know, like the sexiest man in the world or something for "people" magazine. it's not that much different. it's objective. once you agree, it's a great job, how is that? >> glad you feel that way, and as an exercise, it's interesting

for us as editors. we spend the year covering the news, just to take a step back, say, in the end, what made a difference? what did we learn from the year? what do we take away from it? we named putin person of the year2007 and anticipated much of what we've seen in the years since. so you're right. it's a parlor game, but it's an interesting conversation for us to be having. >> when you think about that conversation, grow back and look over the past decades, is there a year where now in retrospect you say, we missed? >> oh, sure. >> what was that? >> i think in 1975 "time" named all women as men of the year or women of the year or something. that was a little whacky. >> i remember i was the person of the year that one year. >> good to add to your resume. >> yeah. but parlor game. that's the term i needed. she knows it. >> this is more important than being the sexiest man alive. >> see, nancy, i don't think they look at every person in the

world for the sexiest man. do you? there's 1.6 billion people in china. did they go over and look around for the sexiest guy in china? >> i trust the editors at "people" to get that decision right every time. >> nancy, thank you for joining us. congratulations on the issue. >> thanks a lot. still to come this morning, a holiday tradition returns to providence, rhode island. but up next, is there time for santa to bring investors dow 18,000? find out if this market will continue its climb or take a breather. jim cramer from the floor of the new york stock exchange is next. e of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running.

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. i'm only allowed one question. true or false, the market always goes up between december 10th and the end of the year, and it will this time as well. true or false? >> i'll go for true. >> that is something that is almost universally accepted, isn't it? are you nervous? >> i think that we just had another little selloff that set us up again for good times. i think the oil decline is bad for 13%. there's a lot of companies that do well. i've enjoyed listening to ken as

always, because he offered common sense. >> thank you for answering. you always do. you can always change it if you need to, but thank you for answering and not avoiding like most of the people. >> last night you were chewing on game stop pretty good. you ought to get to know him. he's a hell of a guy. you might have a different point of view about the company. >> i love paul, had him on a couple shows, i'm just very concerned about this christmas. >> by the way, i think you're right. this christmas is not going to be robust. this christmas we're all struggling to get products out the door. >> but you're right. paul is terrific. i've had him on the show in april. he's a great guy. it's a challenged christmas. thank you. >> good you added something. thanks, ken. thanks, jim. >> when we come back, the cop that jams out while directing traffic. a holiday tradition that will get you moving this morning. tomorrow, i'm going to be live at the conference all morning. bringing you a live look all day

at what's going on. various question and answer sessions. cnbc, the exclusive broadcast partner of the conference, the only play where you can hear some of the smartest leaders in business. (vo) rush hour around here

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he's back. the dancing cop has made his annual appearance in providence, rhode island. tony has been entertaining drivers since 1984. each year he directs traffic with a whistle and a unique twist featuring his trademark dance moves. he retired from the police force in 1988, but the city just couldn't let him go. we're glad they didn't. >> isn't that great? >> isn't he? yeah. i wonder if that song is in his head. >> sound track in his head. >> all right. we only have 40 seconds. >> our guest host ken langone. we haven't talked about democrats today. where are you on hillary? >> i don't think she makes it. >> makes it where? >> she might get the nomination if she runs. we don't know if she's going to run. what i'm praying for is we get four adults like the four i mentioned and have really healthy, grown-up debates about issues and then that one person

who gets it, my hope is it's christie, because i think he'll be a fabulous president. really believe it. good man. thank you all for having me. >> happy holidays. >> my first year as a grandfather of a little girl. and she is precious. >> she's beautiful. we saw the pictures. ken, thanks for coming in. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> that does it for us today. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. we have a lot on tap today. meantime, the premarket relatively weak. s&p is on track for its first three-day loss in about two months. opec cutting its demand forecast for next year. shanghai did rebound, but china's cpi a five-year low. our road map begins with the