tv Street Signs CNBC December 10, 2014 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
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so where it declined. as we are going through the hour here you look at oil there down another four plus percent today with west texas right on the precipice of breaking $60 a barrel. >> that will do it for "power lunch." >> that's all the time we got. >> "street signs" starts right now. right now stocks are sinking to their lowest level of the day. lower oil prices and the oil slide contagion rattling the markets. i'm brian sullivan. as oil creeps closer to falling below $60 a barrel we will dig into why oil's drop seems to be spreading and hurting stocks and who is potential winners and losers. here is something else hitting wall street. a major court decision that looks like it is changing the game for insider trading cases,
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defense lawyers are cheering. we have to start today with stocks. dow jones industrial average down more than 200 points right now, just at the mark, the markets are all being led lower by energy-related names. the sector down more than 3%. it is on oil. you might have heard about this today. it is taking another tumble. jackie deangelis joining us with your trade and why oil has been sliding so much lately. >> good afternoon to you. several reasons for this. let's review our price action. we are looking at wti at 60.73. we hit 60.43 today. we haven't seen that since july 16 of 2009. part of the problem is opec trimming demand forecast for 2015. we know from the last opec meeting they didn't cut production. meantime the doe reported this morning that we saw build in crude oil inventories 1.5 million barrels. gasoline build 8 million barrels going back to crude saying there
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is not a lot of demand for pruk. energy department saying it is expecting retail gas prices to average $2.60 next year. aaa saying we are at an average of 2.63 right now. let me bring this back to you to the crude oil picture. traders in the pits were bottom fishing saying the bottom was at 70. now we are almost at $60 and people are saying i think we are going to hit 50 by january sometime. right now the sentiment is downward direction. we are definitely going lower. we may see pops on technicals within the next few days because people will buy the dips. overall momentum is to the down side. >> is there anybody talking about the other side? it does make me nervous when every person in one market or another says things are going one way. >> it is interesting because for the last few weeks people have been saying that and saying there is too much bearishness in the market.
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right now it is hard to find a trader who wants to be long crude oil. >> 42% in two months. 70% in five months in '09. we know things are different now. let us bring in bob pisani. how much of today's lower stock move has to do with oil? >> a lot of it does. the energy sector is down 3.5%. energy is maybe 15% of the s&p 500. chevron is at a new low. that is probably 50 or 60 points. the reason the dow is declining. with all of that we are just off historic highs with oil down 40% on the year and the energy complex notably down on the year. despite all of that we are just off of historic highs. today clearly is effecting the stock market but if you had to look at it on an overall level i say this year clearly the decline in oil has not
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dramatically hurt the stock market, maybe net positive and even including the decline in energy stocks. >> we did show you a chart that we had made that shows we tend to correlate maybe not immediately. here is my other connection. the vix is up 50% since last friday. the vix is seen as a measure of fear and volatility. if this was purely just an oil story i'm not sure the vix would have surged this month. what other stuff is being sort of whispered about? >> the important thing is the collateral damage around oil. there is concerns about stability in russia. stability in places like iran and what could happen with that. there is concerns about weakness in the oil patch and collateral economic effects of that because that has been a big part of the growth picture in the united states. i'm not suggesting there is not a down side. various parts of the business have got to adjust. we have talked about the high yield market and how that has
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been effective. we are at new lows because of big component of them are also shale plays. >> deutsche bank robbed the market with a big report on high yield and oil. one of the authors of the report is one of our guests here. >> thank you very much. >> oil is not the only big story. you have concern about a china slow down. you also have renewed concerns about europe dangling out there. you probably don't watch the greek stock market every day but we do. it is getting crushed this week down double digits in a matter of days. wells fargo funds management and he is with us now. you heard my questions to bob. oil the big thing. it's got to be something else or is it literally just oil? >> earnings expectation has been going pretty flat for the last month or so. the market is up. this is also a classic bull market correction. they seem to come out of nowhere. the market goes down in a day
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and then moves on. we may be in for a little more rocking before christmas comes along. i don't see the basic fundamentals going away. >> we in the media are occasionally prone to hi burbally and sometimes seek out explanations that are not always there. could it be that stocks are selling simply because buyers are exhausted and sometimes it is not a bad thing if stocks go down? >> it is not a bad thing. >> may be a good thing. >> i won't go that far. i think you have to sort of keep it in perspective and ask yourself about the basic fundamentals. the earnings haven't been strong and haven't been weak either. the fed is still going to be there. people talk about the fed tightening. they are going to raise interest rates to the degree it doesn't effect the economy. the fed is supportive of the economy. that helps the market. the earnings are okay and the valuations in the middle of the ban. i think it is better to be in than out. you can't rule out 5% at any
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point in time. >> there is your variable. the federal reserve. if the fed is the driver of everything lately, how does this oil move play into the fed which then will play into 2015's outlook? >> the fed has to look through everything and stare at the economy. it will look at employment and unemployment but it is going to make sure as best they can the fed members will try to keep the economy on an even course. we are sort of collateral damage or benefit from that. the money that the fed tries to push towards the economy to keep it going flows through us. i can't imagine they start a significant tightening program with this sort of uncertainty out there. >> the dow is up 6% year to date. it has hardly been a disaster of a year. let's forget 2014. let's look to 2015. what are you advising your clients to do? >> i am still a buyer. i am still a holder of stocks.
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i can change my mind at any moment. i think it is important to realize when you look at the fundamentals these sort of flashes in the pan happen. how many 4% to 7% corrections have we had? a lot. what did it amount to? it amounted to less than nothing. you have to deal with this sort of thing. i decided early in my life i would be an equity strategist. what we think is volatility i think is a buying opportunity. >> you see nothing structurally, cyclically fundamentally different about the stock market than one month ago? >> or two years ago. the valuations are higher but the fed is still there. the earnings seem to be okay. don't have evidence they are not. yes oil is down and commodities are down. and maybe it was unusual that oil stayed over 100 for as long as it did. i wouldn't be a seller in here. i tend to think the opportunities are there. i think you can pick your way
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around it and i don't see the fed going away and that matters more than oil. >> well said. we will end it there. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> that oil trade shaking up wall street. investors scrambling faster than tony romo. find out who may be the ultimate winners and losers of the shift in research. we do research for you. that's what we do. here is a list of the possible winning sectors from low oil. some are obvious. you got your pens ready? you just have to remember this. retail obviously more money in people's pockets. airplanes, jet fuel cost. not diesel are also going down. automobiles, we have talked about it. americans are buying bigger, more profitable suvs. restaurants. our friend on tomorrow talked about how some restaurants like buffalo wild wings will do better because of lower oil prices. here is the biggy.
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the oil refiners may also benefit. remember, some of these refiners buy their oil, as well. their margins could go up. we are not seeing that to date. tesorodown. some saying refiners may not get hit. on your flip side here are possible losers for the drop, drillers. wind and solar. cheaper molecule means less need for alternatives. pipe lines we have heard from oil companies requesting price cuts and railroads. i know the common wisdom is it is good for rail because fuel costs go down. railroads burn diesel. diesel fuel has not gone down nearly as much because there is not as much refining capacity and the railroads have made a huge hunk of money hauling oil around america. the railroads could be negatively impacted by lower oil. we have established that oil doesn't impact oil and gas
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companies. it also may have an impact on something else, the debt market. your next guest says if oil falls below $60 a barrel it could mean big problems on the debt side. an analyst at deutsche bank joins us now from the nyse. we appreciate you coming on today. you are not an oil strategist. you are a debt and high yield strategist. give us your thesis in layman's terms about how oil may impact the credit markets. >> certainly. good to see you, brian. the way we look at this issue is energy sector, of course, the single largest sector in the u.s. high yield market measure the market value in terms of 15% right now. it's the second largest sector in the u.s. it is clearly an important part. as you mentioned when we see
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commodity going down and energy equities by more than 25% at this point in time our high yield bonds are now trading at around 760 basis points in the energy sector. that's about a 300-basis point premium to the rest of the market. i think the data points are telling us this is an important story. >> tie it together. is the oil and debt story just an oil and debt story in the energy space or does it have the possibility to infect other parts of the credit market? >> the answer is we are going to find it out relatively soon. we will see where oil goes from here and what an established use
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is. what we have written in the report is to show significant sensitivity in terms of where oil is and where enterprise value of some of those energy companies are today and historical analysis is showing once company reaches a certain level of debt probability of default increases significantly. it really is a question of how many of these companies end up in that camp. of course, as low as oil goes. >> let me be a little more direct and blunt. if oil prices stay right here, $60, $61 a barrel will there be b bankruptcies and restructuring? >> definitely yes. we are at a point where some of the issueers will not be able to come back to the debt markets to refinance. some of them will have no other
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choice but to restructure. at this point it is a question of whether it is a relatively small portion of the market which there is still a chance of getting out in that fashion or it really grows into much bigger problem. >> it was a real pressure to have you on the show. thanks very much. >> thank you. >> let us move from oil to housing. how about that? is this your last chance to lock in a super low mortgage rate maybe for life? why the rules of insider trading may have changed forever. we are less than 20 minutes away from the final oil trades. can oil hold the $60 mark? it is a big one. you heard why it matters to more than just oil. there is your count down. we are back right after the break. female announcer: sleep train's interest free for 3 event!
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...guaranteed! ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ the ten year treasury yielding #.19%. look in germany, their bonds yielding under 0.07%. let us bring in rick santelli. >> don't forget the japanese yielding 39 or 40 basis points. sorry to interrupt. >> they have been yielding that for a long, long time. >> there you go. i put it to you, rick. thinks the yield down to 1%. what do you think? >> once again i have said it many times on your show i'm not
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going to question the success of very, very great trader. my opinion is that the price of commodities always moving faster than their influence within the economy. so the drop in crude is creating a lot because of the big liquidation trade. i have seen a lot of those trades. the benefits to the economy are going to take much longer to actually show up in the economic data. i do think there is lots of winners here because we are not just talking about gasoline. in many ways we are talking about energy. i think the technology and how low the pricing will go and be profitable is under estimated. on your list that you were talking about one thing i see solar and wind. can't say they will be hurt. they were never profitable without government subsidies. it is like the tesla. great car but 30,000 units. let's get real. my feeling is that if you want to know if you are going to see a 1% ten year it will be the message delivered by the equity
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markets. if the equity markets are impacted as they try to define the rapid move like january of this year when stocks didn't look good it was about dropping from 3% like a rock which means january will be the vulnerable month because we are up 10.5% and bob said it all. >> our last guest a block ago a little bit in the weeds as far as the credit market goes. that last point he said he did believe oil at this price would be restructuring and bankruptcies among oil and gas companies. >> i think that is creative destruction. the big conoco phillips will have a problem. the wildcatters, investors might go belly up. they will set up cheaper. >> rick santelli, we do appreciate it, sir. thank you very much. >> low bond yields mean low mortgage rates.
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low mortgage rates often mean refinancing and they also apparently mean a little, not a lot, but a little more home buyers this week. >> i'm glad you are saying a little because it is only a 1% gain from last week more buyers. they are down 4% from a year ago and near record low volume of just -- i'm telling you like it is. one told me this is the first time he can see in 33 years that we have had interest rates fall and negative year over year every single week. total volume was up 7% after being down 7% the previous week. that is all on the refi. what's important here is what is driving the numbers. those refis were at really low volumes. the moves now actually look bigger. home builder still tight mortgage under writing for a lot of weakness this year reporting
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earnings. new jersey based builder beat slightly but ceo called 2014 disappointing, slow and choppy. he admitted the mortgage company is still too tough on under writing and that is definitely losing contracts. the average contract rate on the 30 year fix moved slightly. given what is going on this week lenders tell me rates are back under 4% for the top borrowers right around 4. >> still pretty far. i paid 18%. and everyone said they would go higher this year and they did it. >> $75 and there is a pinto in the drive way. that's a different story. >> is this the best time that you will see perhaps ever? yes a little thrown in there. these mortgage -- honestly, how
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low can these rates go? it's unbelievable. >> listening to your last guests i think they will go lower. there are a lot of things working for interest rates. the falling energy market, a struggling stock market, global economic uncertainty, those are things that are really good for interest rates. god help us if they continue to fall another 1% or 2%. it is certainly possible. right now it is beginning to look a lot like christmas when you have 30-year money below 4%. you have incomes up. this is looking good. setting up nice. >> you just heard diana talk about the home builder ceos saying mortgage lender standards are too tight. do you believe that they don't have the proper standards? because we have heard they loosened up and are making a good case or do they exist and want to wind about it. >> a little bit of both.
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i tell you what i would say. you are seeing policymakers do something. they recognize a problem and are acting. this is washington. that is unprecedented for a while. one could argue that the action they have taken in terms of allowing fannie mae and freddie mac to buy more mortgages with 3% down they are reacting to the fact that the main reason why people aren't buying homes a big reason why people aren't buying homes they don't have the money. the second reason that they aren't buying a house they don't think they can qualify. anything to remove the economic barriers or the credit constraints is good. >> well said. i'm shocked you would imply someone would push for regularatory change which might benefit his or her industry. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. two beaten up stocks that one firm says will bounce back perhaps as much as 20% in a year. those names coming up. will crude oil see a five
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handle $59 perhaps on today's trade? we will take it up right there to you in about four minutes. stick around. act i. scene 3. open port twenty-two-oh-one-seven on the firewall for customer db access. install version two-point-three of db connector and ensure verbose flag is set in case of problems. (clapping sound) isn't the cloud supposed to make business easier? get the one that can connect to the systems
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we continue to have pressure on stocks. let's take a look at momentum stocks fairing trading up and down more than the market. you can see all moving lower more than the overall market. bio tech stocks rising recently moving to the down side today among the big ones moving to the down side. as oil prices plumt let's check out etfs. the power shares and the u.s. oil etf experiencing down days as expected but on very heavy volume. back over to you. >> those are the long oil etfs. we will show you how to profit from short oil. those names and tickers counting you down to the oil close. we have street talk and herb greenberg will make an appearance. we are back after this.
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i was thinking about htaking this speed test from comcast business. oh yeah? if they can't give us faster internet or save us money, they'll give us 150 bucks. sounds like a win win. guys! faster internet? i have never been on the internet and i am doing pretty well. does he even work here? don't listen to the naysayer. take the comcast business speed test. get faster speeds or more savings, or we'll give you $150. comcast business. built for business. welcome back. let's talk about oil. we have how much time? oil is closed right now? we are down to $2.80 a barrel to $61.02.
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there was talk that maybe oil would close with the so-called five handle. terrible day for oil. it does not look like we will close in the $50 range. we were down 4.4% for crude oil hitting a new five-year low. there is your oil trade. let's go to tjm institutional services. dominic chu showed long oil etfs a moment ago. there are those what they call inverse etfs that will go up with the price of whatever commodity tied to goes down. then you have the double inverse etfs. a few of the names. they are in love today. talk to our viewers about the risks of some of the names. >> it's the way you have to think about it. these are not an investment vehicle. these are strictly a trading vehicle. the reason is in order to
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achieve that leverage status there has to be option ality. there is going to be some decay. you don't buy that double short and stick is in your portfolio. you can do that on the one to one basis. if you are going to be piling in 40% down in oil or greater than that, if you are piling in on the short side now and going all in on that let me know because that is probably the definition of the dumb money coming in and try to follow performance instead of being a trend setter there. >> here is the danger of commodities. often times you are trading directly against the producer. the producer of whatever commodity will know more than you, i don't care who you are. >> amen to that. when prices are slipping away like this particularly december 10 and people want to not lose that much money before books are closed i think moves are exacerbated in crude because people got to press the button in order to save money for
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christmas presents for the kids. i think that is happening. when people start to lose control remember oil is not something we are used to free floating to find its own price. it has been controlled for 40 years. let's see where it goes. >> let's go back to the markets here. talking about the stock market, not the oil market necessarily. the dow jones industrial average is down 250 points. two quick questions, what the hell is going on? i thought lower oil prices were supposed to be good for the economy but don't act like they are good for the stock market. >> they are good for the economy and the stock market. the problem here is that it's going too fast and it has theis kind of unsettling faeffect. we have seen it in a lot of things. people are like this is scary. scary means we sell stocks. at the end of the day when the dust settles i know all day long we bring people on and say this is great for the economy and others say it is bad for the
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economy because so much debt is involved in the oil markets. the reality is net-net it is probably good for the economy. it has to slow down and then we come to the realization. right now it is risk off mode. >> it is one thing to cruise in san francisco and another thing to have the car in neutral and going down willy-nilly. do appreciate that. our friend herb greenberg joins us now. let's throw the scripts out because on a day like today that is what you do. i thought jim made an excellent point. it's not the fact that we are at 61 and change in oil but the fact that it has gone down 40%. >> is it sustainable down here? when does it flatten out? if you take a look at the market in general. >> what market? >> stock market. as it relates to all of this i come back to the point that i believe that the october correction was like in a blink and it was over.
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so there was not even a chance to digest itself. you zoom back. the markets always go way too far, sometimes way too fast in one direction and way too fast in another. this case is goes straight up. people say happy days are here again. remember in october when everybody was just so worried for a few days here. >> you know what helped them worry less or not worry at all? earnings. that's what we start to see the numbers roll out. corporate earnings pretty good but not just on the bottom line. the top line was pretty good, too. revenue figures were good. everyone breathed a sigh of relief and the markets went back up. it is december 10. we have a couple of weeks left until the new earnings season begins. you think that could sort of help us out again? >> you have to see sustainability from the prior quarter. you have to continue to see the top line growth. you have to make sure companies
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are cutting prosperity. you see a continuation in that. you talk to people who serve the consumer and they say although this is before the gas benefit occurred that the consumer still stopped spending. >> we are going to get to street talk in just a second. let's roll. it's one of those days where things happen so we will make things happen. you heard me ask about the double short etfs. i know you have been warning our viewers and your readers and everybody for years about these on a day like today where everybody is piling into these double short etfs you talk about the risks. people who own them are feeling real smart and looking smart. it is up 7%. >> as long as it is in their direction. we see the markets whip saw. suddenly you become dumb in these you feel dumb squared. >> i am going to do more or producers or going to fire me
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after the show. i am going to kill street talk. >> they said we already killed it. you are too slow. before we get to "talking numbers" i'm going to give you a shout out. i'm going to give you credit. you and i bet coffee versus gold last year. you are looking very smart now. can we bring up the gdx? gold minors have done very well. what do you make of this resurgence? >> what is the price right now? i am under water on the gdx. >> from our bet. >> which was 15 months ago. >> oblit rated you on the coffee call. >> it has been hanging in this region. this one is just -- you look at it. there are people who say -- >> nice bounce. >> take a look at the longer chart of it. >> i'm talking about a little bounce off of the november lows. >> all recovery starts somewhere. is this one that people -- gold guys say two schools of thought.
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miners have been clobbered. does it separate from gold itself? >> the one thing about the gold market a little unlike the oil market the oil market has opec. you have a bunch of countries that chomp giant cigars and they go to vienna and they sit around and decide what they are going to do. they are truly a cartel and have no problem with it. it is really not a gold cartel. the producers are going to do what is best for the producers. and damn the torpedos. >> damn the gdx. let's get to "talking numbers." that is our daily look at a stock from a fundamental and technical perspective. let's look at costco. meredith of barclays on the fundamentals. i got you here. you are smart in retail. we talk about oil, lower gas prices impact on retail. will costco sell more stuff because oil and gas prices are lower? >> it's interesting.
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they are saying it hasn't had impact so far. maybe a little bit of benefit. keep in mind that their customers in general are more affluent. it isn't as big a benefit as it is to dollar stores. costco does sell fuel as has been typical when fuel prices, gasoline prices are coming down the margin goes up. they saw very nice benefit in this latest quarter because of that. >> are you surprised that either costco or other companies in your coverage universe have not said we are going to sell more stuff because of gas prices? >> i think consumers need to believe it is going to last. the actual impact is not huge. people see it as i have a little more money in my pocket. i'm going to spend it right now.
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>> last question, is costco a good bet for ow viewers' money? >> i have an equal weight on the stock. it is a very stable company. they have had the same business model and they have been creative lately. all of that has worked. it's the valuation is not low. >> wall street equivalent of mauve or taupe or pleated khakis. i hope you are not wearing pleated khakis. let's look at technical analysis on costco. >> i very much agree with an equal weight position in the stock because it is a tale of two time frames. if we look at first a short term chart that shows candlistics depicting daily movement. the stock was unable to hold highs and trade lower. now it is trading below yesterday's open and potentially closing below the ten-day moving average. that tends to signal that
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sellers are stronger than buyers at these levels. it is a near term technical reversal pattern. in the near term we would be neutral on the stock. if we zoom out and go weekly we see the underlying trend is still very strong and underneath priced and has been going on for several years. so what we would look for really is retracement back to the trend in the near term but nothing signaling to us that that overall very long term growth trend is at risk. near term neutral, longer term positive. >> thank you both very much. and reminder check out the online edition of "talking numbers" on yahoo finance part of our partnership with that great company. we are all over the big moves in the oil and stock markets right now. we will have much more on this dual selloff as it happens. we will try to pluck off names that are higher for you. we will speak with the lawyer behind the big case this morning
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that could forever change insider trader laws. he is a big winner today. lots of other defense lawyers might be, as well. he will join us with what it means and whether he thinks it will go all the way to the supreme court. that's coming up. stick around. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're getting a lot of questions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about organic food stocks. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with in-depth analysis by schwab experts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and if you want to run your idea tdd# 1-800-345-2550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our expertise is just a tap away. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 what's on your mind, lisa? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'd like to talk about a trade idea. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 let's hear it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help tdd# 1-800-345-2550 light a way forward. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so you can make your move, wherever you are, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and start working on your next big idea. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades.
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welcome back. two areas pressuring the market we start with the russell 2000 small cap index down a little over 1.5%. now down by nearly 2%. check out the russell etf. and then the mid cap 400 stocks down by nearly 2%. across the board all taking a hit in today's trade. everything is on the move today. joining us now on the cnbc news line is jim paulson. he being a relatively smart guy which is why we call you. your take on the move not just today but yesterday. >> i have a couple of comments i would throw out. i think first comment is i think oil is kind of behind all of
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this. the continued weakness is throwing off the idea of the global economic slow down getting worse. and what i think is interesting about the commodity market is mainly energy. if i look at the s&p nonenergy commodity price index it is flat year to date. it's not down it is flat. if i look at goldman sachs industrial metals index it is flat year to date. nonenergy commodity is up by about 4% to 5%. i think this is a one off in energy that has more to do with the dollar than anything else. and what i noticed today which might be the start of the beginning trend is the dollar is peaking out for a little bit. the dxy is off. it is now basically flat for really since it reached about that 88 level in early november. and you see the euro rallying
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and the yen rallying. that might be the more important thing. if the dollar comes off from its high i think you are going to get a bounce in oil. rather than being an overall market event i think this is a whale of buying opportunity from energy and energy buying stocks. >> you are not talking about whales. you are not talking about whale oil. >> maybe. i don't know what whale oil is doing. >> let me give you a different view. i'm not saying i subscribe to this but i point out oil crashing, 40% drop. the greek stock market, grease, i know i hate it, too, down big, down double digits in just two trading days. you have the vix up 50%. you have china talking slow down. i'm not comparing it directly to 2009 but there are stinky similarities going on. >> absolutely. and i agree. i think we will see more of this choppiness throughout next year. i think it will be a more
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difficult market. i think the bigger issue will be the rate increase of interest rates here. there are things that are scaring people. that is why the vix is up just like you pointed out. i think it's kind of the slow down thesis. when you put in the idea of jump spreads widening in there, as well. a lot of those tie back to the idea that the message for the commodity markets is general economic weakness. i'm not sure that's the biggest message that is going on. and i'm not necessarily bullish on equities from here. i think they are a flattish trend over the next year. i am looking at sector possibilities and tilts. i think it is a good time to draw a big circle around the energy stocks and start accumulating on days like today because if the dollar does work itself to a peak and come down in the next few months i think oil will have a pretty good rally, as well. i think we will find that if
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anything at the end of the day as we get out a few months this tremendous collapse in energy prices combined with the tremendous collapse in bond yields about the globe is going to lead to a liftoff or a bounce in most world economies, not just the united states. >> you are saying on the record that you would be a buyer or are a buyer of oil-related stocks, not all of them but you like them in general. >> i would be looking at growing a big circle because i don't know where oil will bottom out. i think we are getting close to that point. if you give yourself a couple of months that in a year from now you will be happy. >> there will be blood paulsen. up next breaking news from the prosecutor whose big win in an insider trader case became a big loss. you will hear from the lawyer whose client won the case is here. it can change insider trading rules for years to come.
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all right. we crushed street talk. some people upset apparently because we tease the names. you talk, we listen. or is it the opposite. either way, here owe go. cornerstone on demand and tableau software, two names of the big call from bank of america merrill lynch to go into street talk. two names with a buy. they have a $42 target on cornerstone on demand and 20% upside and they have $100 target on tableau software, ticker data and also implies a 20% upside. folks, there you go. okay. breaking news. the original prosecutor in a big insider trading case is speaking out about today's appeals court ruling that overturned the convictions. u.s. attorney bharara said today's decision by the court of appeals interprets the securities laws in a way that
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will limit the ability to prosecute people who trade on leaked inside information. the decision affects only a subset of our recent cases and in those cases as in all of our criminal cases we investigated and prosecuted misconduct based on our good-faith assessment and understanding of the facts and the law that existed at the time. end quote. okay. here's the story if you're wondering what that was about. a federal appeals court earlier today overturned the conviction of two former hedge fund managers on insider trading charges. todd newman and anthony chasen. the court ruled the conviction should be vacated. steven fishbine was the counsel. a big win today. you heard the statement from attorney general bharara saying this will damage future insider trading prosecutions. your response? >> this is not new law. the legal principles we cited
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here go back to the 1980s and the supreme court's decision at that time. i think what may be new is the application of some of these longstanding principles to the cases that the attorney brought and in many of them against people receiving information second or third hand. i think the u.s. attorney is probably correct that the court has now articulated principles that may make it more difficult to prosecute people who are removed from the inside sources of information. >> do you feel that the most important part of the decision was the court's sort of waxing poetic on the definition of a benefit? in other words, what are you and i going to give each other for the information, or did it change the definition of a relationship and fiduciary duty? >> i think that the most prodly applicable aspect of the decision is the benefit you mentioned and that's because all prosecutions are required to prove that there's fraud in the
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form of a corrupt insider who's receiving a benefit for himself in exchange for releasing corporation information. all insider trading cases and the court of appeals made clear that that benefit cannot be some sort of very vague, flexible concept that the government can apply wherever it sees fit. there are some standards. namely, that it has to be concrete, objective. and it has to be in the form of money or something else that's valuable. >> but do you believe, steven, it sets off a wave of appeals for previous insider trading convictions? hey, i didn't get a benefit from that. i never gave him or her any money. >> there are other cases with facts very similar to my case and there will be implications for those. for unrelated insider trading cases, you know, i think it's unclear as to whether people will be able to overturn convictions that have been entered or guilty pleas offered. i think the impact more going
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forward on the government's decisions on who to prosecute. >> stephen, we appreciate your view. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> okay. the dow now down 260 points. appear to be slipping deep sbeer the close and more on the selloff after this quick break as well as an update on the price of oil and everything else going on. two of the dow 30 are higher right now. they're still after me. get to the terminal across town. are all the green lights you? no. it's called grid iq. the 4:51 is leaving at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable. outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you.
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dow, boeing. perhaps concern of the dollars in the emirates and kirg green mountain, the best performer of the s&p 500. the dow not performing well, now down 270 points. we appreciate you watching "street signs." "closing bell" picking up our continuing coverage of the big selloff. have a great day. and welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at new york stock exchange where the dow jones is off 280. >> i'm bill griffith. day three of this selloff. we came close to dow 18,000 last week. >> just friday. >> we have not looked back since that time. down sharply for the dow, the s&p at one-month lows for both of those averages. the price of oil has come precariously close to $59 on wti. that's a five-year low
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