perhaps concern of the dollars in the emirates and kirg green mountain, the best performer of the s&p 500. the dow not performing well, now down 270 points. we appreciate you watching "street signs." "closing bell" picking up our continuing coverage of the big selloff. have a great day. and welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at new york stock exchange where the dow jones is off 280. >> i'm bill griffith. day three of this selloff. we came close to dow 18,000 last week. >> just friday. >> we have not looked back since that time. down sharply for the dow, the s&p at one-month lows for both of those averages. the price of oil has come precariously close to $59 on wti. that's a five-year low looking at right now. >> and there are parts of this

country where the price is oil is already even lower and reports of people in the field saying the price is much like it might be with credit, what you pay for it at this point. a stunning decline here. i use the word stunning because this is not a financial crisis. this is not a recession at least in this country. this is a situation where contributing factors have pushed the oil price out. everybody's jumping ship. look at the traders. the funds. for moving out of the space. i'm sure a lot of big institutions will be next. >> that's a good point. i think traders consider it a repricing. they are repricing right now. >> what's so extraordinary about this, again, tells you hope that this is a supply side story, although the rest of the commodity complex doesn't necessarily confirm it but friday the u.s. with the best jobs number since the great recession and you would look to a number like that and it's a relentless decline in the oil price inl stead since that

report hit. >> i said today quite a tune the markets are singing right now. the melody's familiar. we're trying to figure out what the lyrics are right now. >> exactly. let's see if we can get some help from our panel. >> interestingly earlier today the dow utilities average hit an all-time high. which is telling. you know, yields are coming down. interest rates are coming down. that would help -- that's where some of the money is going right now. to a perceived safer haven. talk about wit the panel. there's the utilities average right now and come off that high from earlier this the session. jack bourougian is with us today. neil hennessey and our own rick santelli. mr. "market" santelli, i'll start with you. is this oil leading stocks lower or when's going on here do you

think? >> listen. i think there's a lot of thing that is are playing negatively into the stock story. i mean, you know, 2016 growth in china may be under 6%. there's a lot of big stories out there. is oil a contributing factor? absolutely. it's the message of the equities markets pushing yields ever closer to very important 214 october 15 settlement price because that's who delivers. that's the messenger. you know? we had a period of oil going down aggressively and stocks with respect. the treasuries didn't pay as much attention. so the sudden price drop, the liquidation, the repricing, i agree with all the terminology that's important. but let's not lose sight of many economic benefit that is will take much long tore accrue in the general economy. >> amen to this. >> all right. jack, give us the glass half full story. is it a same idea that it should benefit the u.s. consumer and is that enough at this point and the u.s. consumer gets a little

bit of help when the price is dropping this far and this quickly? >> oh, you know, kelly, i think that anybody here would probably take a 300, 400-point move off the highs in dow for $60 oil. i think that's a given. what we are looking right now is a global margin call and, you know, 15 of the 20 largest sovereign wealth funds from countries who get their money from oil directly. all right? what we're looking at is liquidation on their part. these are large holders of global equities. so again, we see this happen whenever we see a large, fast move in oil. this is no different. it's a buying opportunity. i'm convinced that a 3% to 5% move at this stage in the year is probably one that active managers have been looking for and hopefully taking advantage of it. >> jack, just to be clear, are you saying that countries are rating the sovereign wealth funds for income because they can't look to oil revenue? >> they have to, kelly. you know, they're forced to. seeing oil do what it's doing,

these are -- again, and look at our friends up north in canada. they have budget that is they have to meet and, you know, we are not talking about venezuela. that doesn't have a sovereign wealth fund that's worth noticing or talking about but we're talking about russia, the ukraine, norway. country this is people aren't aware of whose budgets are directly affected by this move in crude. >> and it would appear that the -- maybe the oil bulls aren't giving up. we had evidence earlier i read where there's record volume in oil related etfs right now. exchange traded funds that have become so popular with individual investors. what do you make of that kind of an a move? are they stepping in front of a falling knife or a prudent move to make right now? >> who knows how far the bottom is in oil? commodity and the stocks. one of the ways to ignore the day-to-day volatility of markets

is diversify your portfolio. we launched a portfolio today through 29 etfs over 20,000 securities around the would and really interestingly enough, the global asset aloe case portfolio gaa is the first etf with a zero permanent percent management fee. >> is it hedged? >> no. well, it is in the sense it owns u.s. stocks, foreign stocks, bonds, commodities. >> but i mean you know better than anybody, the u.s. dollar is appreciating and leaving countries in a tough spot so what i mean is, is it currency hedge or neutral? >> it's long u.s. based assets, a great percentage of the portfolio is u.s. stocks, bonds, real estate and then investments outside the u.s. that don't hedge. foreign equities, bonds, asets. we think it's a great balance. >> neil, jack was talking of savvy investors to step in. are you one of those guys? you are looking for a bargain in this market.

a trader said macy's has the store buster sales. wall street is having a sale today do. you agree? >> i absolutely agree. we saw this in july of this year. we saw it in september, october. we where the market retreated. we know that the market bill is volatile in here. people believe it's up 165% since its lows of march of '09 but the reality of the situation right now, the 10-year u.s. government bond right now or note is trading at $217. but if you buy all 30 dow jones industrial stocks you're going to get over 2.2% yield. and when you look at it, companies are making a ton of money. the consumer and companies are both going to benefit from lower oil prices and energy prices. i mean, if you really look at it, this is just a buying opportunity. >> okay. >> but you have a selloff that people are panicking saying get me out once again. it's stupid in my opinion. >> does this mean you would buy

some of the oil stocks taking it on the chin, boeing to the downside and pays a pretty good dividend. are those the kind of stocks you're talking about? >> starting to lock at how we invest, one of the criteria is we're looking for positive relative strength in the companies that we buy at the end of our formula driven like the focused mid cap 30 and so essentially they all have a negative relative strength so they're not going to make it into the portfolio and some point in time, you know, bill, it will stabilize. 60, 55, 70. wherever it stabilizes and then see the companies and stocks catch back up. >> do you think it's stupid, rick, when's going on in the market here? >> i think some of the ways we look at things aren't necessarily stupid but it's the immediate gratification. and all the over liquefy case of central banks aided and abetted.

another commodity story, the farmers in the midwest have corn coming out their aerlears. yet the price is over $3.50. you talk to a farmer. a much better deal on it. why the disparity with the marketplace? all the money's still in the system. so i think, yes, we are making a lot of it. things like the vix up 50%. from 12 to 22? i get it. but, you know, nobody talks about how we have seen japanese yields move 25% in less than a month from 53 to 40. sometimes percentages are misleading. volatility is low. lick quidty is high. we said high prices bring recessions. what happens with low prices? >> we have to thumb through the economics textbook for that story there. jack, how much of this has to do with the expiration next week? i mean, the last few expirations that we have had have been to the upside. do you see this as a set-up for

that? >> i absolutely do, bill. in fact, i have a feeling to be sitting here next week talking about how the market is moving back those all-time highs. quarterly expirations, it's made a new all-time high. not a coincidence. that's because you see the managers are actually right now scrambling and one of the things to pay attention to over the course of the next couple of weeks. the people left and trading the market in the next couple of weeks are those to keep their jobs going into 2015. >> let me just throw this out there, as well. i don't know that we've talked enough about the monetary changes next week s. that kind of tightening when's driving the risk-off trading pattern we're seeing given as everybody's saying, the market might be taking well here. >> could be. you know, the monetary forces, these commodity forces create opportunity like a couple of my panelists mentioned. look, there's ten countries,

equity markets around the world trading at pe ratios in the single digits and roughly the same amount of dividend yields over 4%. i think there's a lot of opportunity in foreign exty exposure. >> all right. gentlemen, thank you all for your insights on what's a very interesting important day in the markets. we're off the lows right now, though. >> still down 250 points. >> i said it finally. not able to do that recently. >> that's true. we were down 280 at the start of the hour. off 250 now. again, the weakest link is boeing. at lea interestingly enough. the nasdaq giving up 73. nation's biggest financial firms have been feeling the affects of the oil shock. goldman sachs downgraded today thanks largely to the oil slump and talking about the connection and what's at stake for the big banks throughout. and then later, tyson food ceo speaking with us

exclusively. we'll talk about what went on there. plus the situation in china. find out if that chicken producer still feeling the blow of a summer food safety scare that has yum brands kfc reeling. we're back in two. how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 70% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.

if you're just tuning in to see if the selloff of monday and tuesday ended today, the answer is, no. you're looking at the heat map as we call it. s&p. that's all 500 of the s&p 500 stocks and you can see how many are up and by far how many are down contributing to this decline of 1.4% of the s&p 500 index. the industrial average was down 280 at the low. we are down 245 right now and the nasdaq is down 72 at 4694. >> yeah. a lot of energy names are the weakest performers on the session. oil still sliding. jackie deangelis, do we hear 60 yet over there? >> we did setting at dlfr 60.94. down 4.5% today and looking to see if there's selling pressure into the close to take us into the 50s. didn't happen today and traders telling me we could see $59.30

tomorrow and once we break through the $60 mark the selling pressure really will probably mount to the downside. meantime, what was impacting the markets today, well, the first thing is opec trimming the 2015 demand outlook. obviously, the last production meeting, they didn't cut production. the last opec meeting so all eyes are going to be on the meeting in march. however, the saudi oil minister out today saying why should we cut production? why would we? he said customers come and say that they want more oil and right now there's not a lot of demand in the marketplace right now and the sentiment right now to the downside for oil. you may see a little buy on the dip mentality but people are saying it's a falling knife and they don't want to get in its way. >> thank you. let's talk about the dramatic decline and having a rippling effect through the financial sector today with concerns that banks have exposure to energy firms that might not remain solvent if oil

continues to decline for an extended period of time. goldman sachs, for example, downgraded today due in part to that weakness of energy. >> joining us is art cashin and brady gayly. welcome to you both. art, first to you, how much of the decline in the market today is because of the decline in oil prices here? >> i think a great deal of it. and it is as bill just alluded to, beginning to spill out into other areas. obviously, part of the selloff is chevron and exxon, but as you said goldman sachs among others and concern is particularly about the high yield end. a lot of the small fracking companies and others are thought to have exposure there. and the etf, the jnk, junk for the high-yield sector, took out the october, the ebola lows today and people are concerned about the financials,

particularly high yield end. >> brady, are we early on this call? are you seeing evidence of the financial sectors result of debt issues of energy? >> bill, it's not really a debt issue for banks i cover. the investor focus for the regional banks is predominantly in the states likes texas and oklahoma that have a lot of energy exposure and when you look at those states, those stocks as we have seen oil fall a lot from thanksgiving, they're off 10% to 15% and the regional banks have 10% to 15% to 20% of the loan portfolio in energy and spooking invest to recalls in those economies. >> my question is, are we seeing evidence of potential default as a result of this are just anticipating this is a logical next step? are we actually getting evidence that companies are threatening to default? >> yeah. as of now, it is primarily

anticipation. if you look at the banks, you know, it is really going to take lower oil for longer to really show up as a credit issue. you know, a lot of these banks have made sure that their energy companies have production hedged for another year or two so it's going to take a while for this really to show up in the financials in a material way. so right now it is just on the threat. >> so what happens to the market in the meantime, art? >> the concern here today, today would have been a perfect day for the buy the dippers. big turnaround yesterday would have been perfect. didn't happen. and that's because we are seeing early concerns about contagion. that it's beginning to spill over into other assets. they're not worried enough to put on the hazmat suits yet but you can see that the concern of contagion is there. >> i mentioned the utility average hit an all-time high before the selloff. the russell, you're pointing out, is relatively holding its own right here. what do you make of those, what are perceived to be relatively

more secure investments right now. >> well, i think the russell has had a leadership role and it's got reasonably good technicals. what happened to us today is shortly before 2:00 the dow took out yesterday's low and produced the kind of trap door effect and people said, that great reversal today isn't going to hold? and so you have got to look at the technicals in the different indices moving along here. it's going to be tempting. trying to fight back and maybe an uphill fight, a very early and i mean early because it can change any minute. >> right. >> look at the close is to the sell side. >> we have come back by 55 points on the dow here. >> brady, a question to you, as well. contagious art mentioned. i'm curious what you think how this differs or what it has in common with the collapse of financials after the real estate crisis. >> i mean it's always an issue when you have collateral values

that go lower for banks with energy exposure. i think one thing that people are focusing on now is, you know, for the banks, as lower oil, you know, pricing in general leads to less inflation, which allows the fed to allow rates to stay longer for longer, lower rates for longer is generally bad for bank earnings and valuations so there's also an indirect effect, you know, on the rate issue here, as well. >> before we let you go, art, jack made the point, he thinks that, you know, we'll see a turnaround as we get closer to the expiration. there's a quadruple expiration next friday. you know, walk us through what you think happens here. >> the other thing that's going to be in your favor is that the seasonals are going to turn expressly favorable. this week as i've written in my comments every morning is the least strong of the strong seasonal. >> this week? >> this week. moving into next week, the beneficial seasonals should begin to kick in and certainly

we'll know best probably tomorrow. the thursday in the week before an expiration gives you a very strong hint of when's going to happen. >> the buy the dippers might finally poke the heads out. >> they were run over by a truck today. >> thank you both so much this afternoon as we watch the market here. as bill said, coming off the lows. dow off 220. still way far from that dow 18,000 level we were talking about just on friday and this has a lot to do with the pressure on the oil space today. the s&p off 27. nasdaq 65. tyson foods surging over 20% this year. the number one chicken producer in the u.s. holding the investor day conference here at the new york stock exchange. the ceo ringing the closing bell. he's going to talk to us exclusively coming up here next. and his reaction to a promotional video of knocked assure the customers that chicken nuggets are made of chicken. tyson is a major supplier. we'll be back in two.

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welcome back. the dow's off 280 points. lows of the session. off 220. still not much green out there as you can see from the heat map

of the s&p 500. giving up 27 or thereabouts today. the nasdaq, as well. that's the underperformer. a rough stretch and perhaps collateral damage to names like tesla deservedly or not. tyson foods with a pretty good year. the stock up almost 20%. not spared in today's carnage. down 1% right now. >> with us, in a cnbc exclusive, tyson foods, ceo donnie smith. now he's gearing up to ring the closing bell and we're glad you're able to join us meantime. >> glad to be here. >> thank you. we're focusing on a global situation here as the market declines for a third day in a row. we wonder if it's related to slowdowns in chi yeah or russia or things. you actually had a pretty good year with the stock price. where's the strength been? where's the weakness? give us a sense of where, how

the economy is doing globally for you. >> so i think the 30% decrease in crude, let's talk about the 20% decrease in gas prices. very good for our business. more income in consumers pockets and more trips in food service and so we're very optimistic about how the current economy is going to affect our business. feel great about ow future, having the breadth and depth of the portfolio now combined with the strength of these brands. we are in a unique position to provide consumer what is they want and shareholders with a good story, too. >> certainly in the u.s. what about outside the u.s.? this is the big question for 2015. how bad is it out there? >> exports are up for the year. they've slowed recently in the last, say, two to three months. i think more related to the dollar. but as we look forward into '15, we are very optimistic at export levels will be about like they were in '14 for our business. >> were affected at all by the problems of kfc in china and the

supplier issue over there? demand for chicken in china is down. we made a note on the last call and slowed down the plans in china to better balance supply and demand. yes, it is affecting the business. >> do you see it picking up? >> we're very optimistic about the future of china. we know our model of a secure supply of safe food products is very important to the chinese consumer so we think we're well positioned. we think some of these foods scares prooifb that our model's right so i think we have got to get through this short-term blip in demand and then the future is good in china. >> let's talk about the mcdonald's mcnugget for a second and people skeptical of what goes into one. there's a video online showing the process of making mcnugget. there it is. at a tyson foods plant. what is your reaction to the fact that people question the ingredients? >> today consumers are a couple

of generations off the farm so they really don't understand what life on the farm's like or frankly how the food is med. >> doesn't look like a farm to me. >> to open up how food is made for consumers today is very important and we want to be more and more transparent about what we do to provide great, wholesome, affordable food. >> chicken gets that reputation more than beef and turkey. we don't talk about turkey or beef parts. why is that? why do you think that is? >> i don't know. the's been a couple of celebrity chefs that made we think outrageous and erroneous comments, some referenced in this video. and we think it's consumers understand what we do and the measures we go to provide them with great food, we think it drives them to trusted brands like those that we have. >> the other question of the food supply is not just the treatment of the animals involved but security. we saw this happen with smithfield a little bit.

chinese acquirer. how safe and reliable is it? do you have any concerns? talk to us about the security measures you guys have in place. >> how you provide safe affordable food is important. we know we have to do that responsibly. we have very detailed measures so we can track the food that we make all the way back to the come poe innocents of the ingredients made in it so that we can give our customers the assurance that the supply chain is intact from the very first ingredient that goes into the product all the way to delivery to their distribution center. >> pricing, you know, we hear about the deflationary issues facing us. oil is a component of that. food is very volatile out there. chicken pricing, where do you see that going in the new year? >> in the new year, chicken pricing will be slightly lower than what it was. >> why? demand or supply? too much or not enough? >> frankly more of the demand

situation. >> okay. >> let me explain. currently beef prices are up 25%. this month versus in october versus where they were a year ago. that's very high and put beef out of the reach of consumers and going to chicken not because chicken is cheap but because chicken is relatively a great value compared to beef. right? >> you finessed that well. >> well, we do this every day. so we're optimistic about -- you know, hey, we have a broad deep portfolio to reach consumers with a lot of products. >> last question before you go and quite simply again to look at the pretty shocking decline in oil just in terms of the speed of which this happened and how off guard it caught people. how does this affect your business directly? even just talking transportation costs? >> obviously the transportation costs are cheaper but the biggest imspakt the amount of disposable income in consumer's

pockets to drive demand for our great food. >> are you ready to quantd if i what that will be like? >> i heard last week at a conference that a 30% drop in crude could add as much as .6% to u.s. gdp. >> sure. >> we have been growing our business very well in an economy that's been at around 2% or so. 2.5%. to be able to grow our business into an economy that would be maybe over 3%, looking forward to that. >> are you hiring? >> absolutely, why. >> wages increasing? >> in pockets. >> we'll take it. hot pockets. >> no. oh wait a minute. competitive product. stop that! >> we'll let you go. you have to ring the closing bell. >> we do. thank you very much. great to visit with you. we keep an eye on the markets here. we see pressure on the dow to the tune of 226 points.

and as mentioned, pretty similar declines across the major indexes. much more on today's market selloff when we come back. new cadillac.... ♪ ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac.... ♪ ♪ look here, daddy, i'm never coming back..... ♪ discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. lease this 2015 standard collection srx for around $359 a month. once there was a girl who even in her laundry room. with downy unstopables for long-lasting scent. and infusions for softness. she created her own mix, match, magic. downy, wash in the wow. you are gonna need a wingman. and my cash back keeps the party going. but my airline miles take it worldwide. [ male announcer ] it shouldn't be this hard.

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well, we are coming back. if you're just joining us, yes,

that's an eye-opening decline for the dow. it was down 280 about an hour ago. we have come off the lows obviously. same thing for the s&p and the nasdaq. we're showing you right now the heat map and 3 of the 30 components higher. nike, pfizer and merck. drug stocks. drugs, you know, some of the traditional. safe haven plays going higher. >> worst three are boeing, exxon and jpmorgan. caterpillar, too. bob pisani, do you think it's the same story today? >> very sensitive of two issues. one is decline of oil and collateral damage of that and second is slower growth concerns overall. so we have 52-week lows all over the place in the energy place, chevron, for example in the dow. some of the exploration names and drillers all at 52-week lows. a lot of collateral damage and

the canadian banks, bank of nova scotia. they're involved in financing. all weaker today. commodity countries are hit on the lower growth concerns out there so exchange traded funds around russia, for example, south africa, canada, all co commodity countries all down 2% or so. commodity stocks are also on the 52-week low list right now and iron ore names. all in down 2% to 4%. slower growth in china and a crackdown on gambling? 52-week lows even in the casino names. las vegas sands and wyndham in the china market and lower here. airlines are really the big winners today. i added big industry airline group came out and talked ant profitability in 2014. it's higher than they thought even a few months ago and in 2015 it's going to be even 50% higher profitability for the airlines than it is today. also upgrades recently in the

airline group. guys, back the you. >> stick around, though. bob, we want to talk about this with john miller. >> he's high-yield muni fund is beating the index by 5% in the last year. so welcome, john. can we start just with your reaction to this market today here? i mean, what do you make of it? what opportunities do you see? >> well, i think this is helpful for the municipal market ironically. helpful for fixed income. munis in a bear market last year. this year is much more calm, low volatility kind of steady improvement coming back from oversold values last year. i think ultimately the lower inflation rate is affecting and anticipation of lower inflation next year, as well, is affecting the demand for longer dated fixed income and that municipals is right in that venue. >> the fact that you're looking

for high yield munis suggests higher than normal risk in what's perceived to be a safer play. you know, we talk about the potential strains in the market and the financial sector because of the lower price of oil. could that spill over, as well, to communities that would be hurt by this decline because they're so involved in oil production? >> that could be, you know, maybe some very isolated pockets in north dakota perhaps. but generally, what we're seeing across the country state government revenues setting new all-time highs. state and local government revenues combined setting all-time highs. a public rating agency doesn't publish a report on what they think of the credit. generally they're not so much communities as much as they are basic infrastructure. roads, waertd and sewer systems, schools, hospitals. these sorts of things are infrastructure heavily utilized right now and we think in

general that should continue. >> john, just a quick question. president obama had a press conference recently pushing very heavily infrastructure improvements for 2015. how's this going to affect your space? do you anticipate more infrastructure related muni bonds coming in the next year or two? >> you know, most muni bonds are infrastructure related. over 75% of our infrastructure spending for the country is financed through the issuance of municipal bonds. it's been tepid for the last several years. municipalities because of their budgets have been calling and maturing more debt than what they have been issuing. what we could see for 2015 is municipalities being more open about issuances whether the project is really necessary. where there's pent-up demand that hasn't been met and road repairs 0 needed. so we should see an uptick in supply next year and the demand

is definitely there for it at this time. >> you know, high yield, i'm curious, if we see the continued decline in oil, when's the definition of high yield? i would imagine that moves lower, a was el. what kind of a yield spectrum do you look at in the market then? >> well, the long-term aaa municipals around 3% right now. on average, the high yield is adding roughly about another 2.75% to 3.75% on top of that. 5.75% to 6.5% would be kind of a general area of high yield for municipalitie municipalities. that is a tax free yield, as well. we have to look at aaa and credit spread to get to that. >> are you expecting that to come down appreciably this next year? >> we could see i think credit spreads narrow.

ironically, even though municipalities are having a strong year, it is not a global spread narrowing. spreads still have the potential to narrow next year if the default rate continues to decline. we're looking for 2014, we probably have the lower overall defaults in 2014 since before 2008. should that continue then these credit spreads could narrow. >> it's a point. john miller, thank you, john. we'll see if people throw out the munis with the high-yield bath water there. keeping an eye on things, weakening with 18 minutes to did here at the dow heads back to decline of 250 points. >> very, very interesting market. dominic chu rounds up the biggest losers when we come back. we want the know if you think stocks are starting a correction here. go over to cnbc.com/vote right now. our live poll opens shortly. we're back in two. you're driving along,

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who's having the biggest impact. believe it or not, not the oil companies this time around. bioing is biggest laggard for the index in terms of points responsible for a 29-point draw down in the value of the dow jones industrial average today and shares down by nearly 4%. boei boeing's down 9 out of 10 sessions and fallen about 7% in that span. goldman sachs also the next biggest laggard and responsible for 26, 27 points of the dow's loss today and shares down by 2.5% and then comes the two big oil companies in the dow. exxonmobil and chevron and responsible for 18 to 20 points for the drop in the blue chip index and drawing the most, it is this time around goldman sachs and boeing the biggest point detractors to today's move. back over to you. >> that's a point. >> thank you. look at this. heading back to the lows of the session just as we are sitting here. the dow back down 270-plus points. about a percent and a half.

and the other two averages are even hitting bigger percentage-wise. s&p down 1.6%. nasdaq down almost 1.7% with about 14 minutes left. >> all this on ugly trades and the european trades this week. the vix up right now and there's significant volume. >> vix up 50% just since last friday so just in the last three trading sessions here. >> there's a look at the dow and those components that dom mentioned. will stocks slump straight into the close? keep it right here and the pros tell us what you should be doing with your money right now when we come right back. money. you know, i think about money kind of a lot. -money's freedom. -money's always on my mind. credit cards. -mortgage. -debt. it's complicated. it's not easy. i'm not a good budgeter. unfortunately, i'm a spender. i would love to learn more about finances. so there's questions about the world that all of us have, especially about money and finance. the goal of khan academy and better money habits and the partnership we're doing with bank of america

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all right. ten-minute mark before the bell rings. that's not about the market. that's tyson foods celebrating the day, investor day here at new york stock exchange. you see the s&p is down 1.7% almost. art cashin came by and said the bias to the downside before the close. they have something like $1.8 billion of stock for sale. >> to go. >> as we go into the close. i think we saw that when the dow was moving down and down 270

right now. >> slowing us is andrew slimman. what do you make of this market? >> i think it's a classic pullback. we have had a good run off the low in october and doesn't surprise me we have a pullback and will we have the same level? no. i think that's a possibility of -- >> oil supposed to benefit, right? >> tax -- >> you think that's what -- >> tax loss selling and that's what happens in mid-december. i wouldn't be surprised the stocks bounce in late december. >> what looks attractive to you here? >> i think you look at some of these oil stocks and quality names pounded here because there's people just selling them to take loss for the year. >> you look at the classic safe haven play is the yen. the yen strengthened three days and the market has fluttered three days. there's a sign that it's a little bit more of an oil.

you can see it in the bond and big commodity countries. it is a little more than just oil but i agree with everybody else. i can't possibly think why lower oil is bad for the stock market. energy sector down 15% this year. you can't argue decline in oil is bad. it's in front of your eyes. >> we are seeing classic defensive plays doing relatively well and highlighting the pharmaceuticals. they're higher today and both pharmaceutical stocks. utilities today hit an all-time high before they started to see a selloff. we are seeing people rush to defensiveness. safe plays. >> we have had this volatility spike every two months now for the last couple of years. we had one in august, one in october. so i think that's really whether's going on. as bob said, i don't see this bad for the economy. but there's always something to worry about. right now there's something. >> not to reiterate and

referenced this but bridgewater is a firm saying, yes, it will boost gdp and then over time it's going to hit the u.s. economy, going to hit investment, going to hit the higher earning parts of the economy that we have seen help contribute to this rebound. again, it might be a lag effect or a smaller effect in any given quarter and certainly has an impact. >> to worry about earnings, worry more about the stronger dollar and affecting multinationals. i think that hurts the big companies in the u.s. and benefit companies elsewhere next year so i think the issue for the market as we look out into 2015 is that companies when they report their fourth quarter could bring down the outlook for 2015 because the stronger dollar creates a little bit of a headwind. >> pockets of collateral damage around. we'll see reports slow down in north dakota, north dakota economy slowing down, things like that. one issue that worries me the

most, russia. we don't know -- now, putin's in a real corner now. there's practically a conventional land war, practically in the ukraine. his economy in the shambles. who knows what he'll do? what worries me, that does. >> popularity is high in russia. >> oh boy. >> higher than it was -- >> than in america. >> bob's point. >> how nice for him. right? can't take it to the bank popularity. >> it keeps him in power. >> okay. you got that for a while at least. hang around. we'll bring these guys back in a moment as we head to the close and closing countdown and see how we do. we are very close to the lows of the day right again right now. >> after the bell, we'll assess the damage and speak with some of wall street's top money pros of safe havens to consider and what happens next amid this surprising carnage in the stock market today. that's all coming up. i hadn't been successful. quitting smoking this time was different because i got a prescription for chantix. along with support, chantix (varenicline)

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it is right around $60 at the low of the day. we're at $61.37 right now, a decline of 3.8% for the week and down 6.8%. 10-year yield moving lower back below 2.2%. at 2.16 right now and that's a decline of 6.1%. one last thing, what's going up? volatility. the vix is up 50% now 56% for the week so far as we're back to 18.5. andrew, i get your points about taking this in stride. you see this. why is that not complacency, though? >> it was. that's why the market -- >> what you're -- what you're expressing right now. >> sure. >> about your just, well, yes, it is just another decline and expect higher prices next week. >> not necessarily. i think the market could have a 5% pullback. we are only -- vix is halfway to

where it peaked out in october. >> right. >> i'm just saying that a lot of buying got sucked up between mid-october and end of november and so it's natural that you're going to have a pullback here and volatility. >> so you could see another 3% decline here from where we are here? >> yeah. exactly. >> main concern that i have isn't lower oil. i put up with the collateral effects of that. it's slower growth story globally and seeing two stories going on today. continuing slower growth story in the emerging markets, all the russian stocks, for example, canadian stocks. >> which plays to your argument about the strong dollar. part of that equation, right? >> that's right. that worries me a lot more. i think that could be a major issue. one of my predictions, though, of course, for 2015, doing predictions this week -- >> asking us for predictions. >> sticking our necks out. europe will outperform the united states next year. there's a bold prediction because the bottom is so top

heavy in some of these names and predicting a terrible recession. >> out for europe. >> let's see what happens. thank you. going out right now, near the lows of the day near 270. does this continue tomorrow? coming up on the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans and company. see you tomorrow. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. applause but not for the performance on wall street. ugly session in, fact. just a few days dow 18,000 hats around here. people asking maybe it's time for the wti 50 hats. dow giving up 266 points today. and yes, it is on that continued decline in oil. that we're witnessing. declines of 1.5%. to look at the nasdaq, off 82 points, the s&p giving up 33 and

lots of red on that screen. not a lot of green pockets. bring in today's panel. stephanie link is here with nathan bachrach and courtney reagan and with us for more brian kelly. there he is. welcome one and all. brian, listen, what about the treasury auction today and seems like an unusual place to start here and more going on than just the oil price decline. >> well certainly. you have the look at the treasuries because we are looking at the major buyers of treasuries starting to dry up. federal reserve ending quantitative easing and also china. china will likely buy less treasuries going forward and something to watch and oil clearly the story of the market today and essentially what happened we had opec cut the forecast for 2015 but importantly they said it was because of demand and that's something we have talked about for a couple of weeks on "fast money." global demand is weak. the u.s. stock market with the

last one to realize that. people woke up this morning and hit the sell button. >> stephanie, how much weakness does that imply? are people now going to wake up and say, wait a minute, the demand picture is weak and we have to change our assumptions or is the u.s. an attractive place in a world that's slowing? >> oil price slide is part demand, part supply. that's your issue here. and we're all trying to figure out how much of it is demand and how much of it is supply and i think it's a combination and still point to a lot of good economic data points over the last week. i mean, just last week at this time talking about record auto sales, record truck orders. ism services. >> and the jobs report. >> right. with wage growth, a little bit encouraging. nothing else is perfect and the speed of the oil decline is certainly troubling and the case and i still think that the u.s. is the best place to be. the u.s. is still seeing strength. and that's where you really want

to be. >> nathan, how much further does the market fall? none? what is your instinct? >> a lot further than reason would dictate. i'm to the left of stephanie but if she's demand, over here is supply and i'm further over on supply. >> but then why do you think the market will fall more? if it's a supply argument, is that a better one and one where things are health think in this country and we got the added benefit of a bunch more supply? >> i think we have lots of supply and i don't think demand is diminished and would be my point. >> right. why do you think the market will fall? >> right now because the market gotten like somebody on a high wire and they tell you on a high wire, there's one critical thing you don't do. you don't look down because then you realize how high you are and i think this market got to the point it went, oh my goodness, would you look at that? it's almost 18,000. so and until -- why should i believe an oil producer saying demand is down next year. they have every reason to talk

things up like janet yellen. i don't see it right now. my son is the sun going down or the s the horizon moving up? i don't see demand. >> kelly, up until this week, seven straight weeks in a row where the market was up. so it's easy to take profits and you have to look at when's the beneficiaries of lower oil and that -- >> enter courtney reagan. >> exactly. this is also happening at a time when the holiday sales season is picking some of those for us, as well. >> exactly. we had walmart ceo on "squawk box" last week saying when oil prices fall, we know that helps consumers. walmart has to be one that will benefit. costco, too. they sell gasoline. you have folks coming in, buying fuel at these lower prices that they're excited about. more money in the pocket from saving money at the tank outside and go back in and buy more and costco could be a winner here, too. >> real human terms.

two people that drive a car, two 20-gallon fill-ups a week, they save $2,400 over the course of a year. if the average wage or income about $50,000. that's a 4% raise. the raise you couldn't get from the stingy boss at work you got at the pump. >> hearing people clapping again, you saw the interview with donnie smith of tyson food and john tyson ringing the closing bell and antics up there. maybe they're clapping for gordon that joins us now. good to see you. talk to us about the volume and where the pressure is coming from today. >> first off, you can tell it's december around here. and that means whole -- we're down in the home stretch now. we have 15 trading days, now 14 after the end of this one and not only to focus on currency and commodities and of course oil, which is obviously the one that everybody's talking about, and its affect on retail, but it's also about tax season.

hedge fund guys performing. a move now at the end of the year to try to position themselves. >> right. >> it's a risky move. you have everybody involved here from the little person. happy belated birthday to mcnamara abe the pension funds and the corporations. a lot of energy in the room. today's action was not like yesterday's. they sold them hard on the open and held them a little bit. this one went the other day and every day with a personality. you have to be prepared here. >> brian, what do you think happens next here? oil price is driving the market. i think we are closer to a bottom here. people are very bearish. four or five major banks talking about the $40, $50 oil. i think wti around $60, that's important. you're also getting some of the shale oil producers cutting the drilling applications so somewhere close to here you have a bottom in oil.

what that means for the u.s. stock market, i'm not sure yet because the logic has been this is a great tax cut. everybody's going to spend money. what happens if oil goes up now? is it a tax increase? i'm less bullish on the u.s. stock market. >> and we should also mention, stephanie, while we focus on the wti benchmark price here for the u.s., there are pockets like pockets in the bakken producing below that price and brent fell through the $65 level and the questions that raises about everything from geopolitics next year to the balance of trade here for this country and others becomes the overarching question and bottoming here for 2015. >> well, sure. i think it is hard to call a bottom in any commodity and if brian is right, god bless you. i think that's fabulous. for you to be involved in the energy stocks at this point, you kind of take a little bit of a gamble. i would rather wait for the price to stabilize. wherever they might be and miss

the first five, $10 in certain stocks but at this point we won't know. there's too many uncertainties but i come back to the u.s. economy on pretty good footinger and american express said cyber monday was the best billings numbers in their history of the company. >> we. >> that's a very, very big statement and speaks to a better consumer and that -- not just oil price that is are down. it is that jobs are getting better. wages better. it is getting a little bit better. >> nathan, that's an interesting question. the late '90s and greenspan talking about irrational xub rans and the fed worried of whether or not to do more to respond to the russian crisis and what happened? the u.s. stock market went into, you know, parabolic. a couple of years later. the fed responding to international concerns to some extent even while the domestic economy was picking up. do you see those parallels? >> only for sure the draghi got a whole bunch of people now to

say, you know, we don't really need to do the stimulus because we are getting a stimulus from the fact that oil prices are going down and if you're in europe and i agree with stephanie. i love the united states. i have 70% of the investments here in good, old american companies and in europe do i sell it? do i hold on to it? how long is it going to be? waiting for the europeans to mimic what we're doing here in the policy. they haven't done it. >> there's more evidence today. that's what some of the reporting was that knocked down the market and draghi didn't have a majority of the ecb behind him and maybe fiscal policy wouldn't follow suit. >> there's more money sloshing around in the european economy because oil, the price of gas down over there. a liter is down over there. >> do they feel it the same way, though? >> they don't drive as much as we do and not exactly the same. their prices are higher to start. not sure that it feels as good as maybe it does for our consumers. >> $8 a liter i wouldn't buy a car.

>> high-end luxury sales at christmastime, tourists fly more and then we like that. >> are you hearing about the strong dollar of retailers? it comes back every time the dollar rallies and hurts with international exposure and they it's not a factor. >> it's funny. retailers in general are very cautious and it's a debate that steve liesman and i have whether it's dollar or gas prices and the economy might be improving werner vous of those dollars not spent in traditional retail ways and maybe more experiences for christmas or vacations. that's a concern that retail earls are having and while they may not address the dollar question, it's among the concerns that's being listed off at this point. >> brian kelly, ask you and gordon and everybody here that question. is 2014 going to be 1997-light? what do you think? >> i mean it could be. talking about the strong dollar, i'm not necessarily in the camp where the strong dollar will hurt companies here.

it could. but it is much more of a benefit to u.s. asset prices when all the rest of the world's money is coming into the u.s. that's why you have to watch the dollar index actually come off rather significantly in the last couple of days and to me that's a signal that perhaps some of the money that's been flowing into the u.s. is stopping. >> and lastly, to you, gordon, does this remind you of 1997 all over again? >> no. i don't think so. of course, on the other hand, i don't generally think out that far. i'm looking towards the end of the year right now and we're able to hold significant support levels here. trading to the downside orderly and not surprised to see retrench here into the end of the year and actually extend gains further. >> all right. thank you for coming to join us off a busy trading session. gordon, appreciate it. brian, thank you, as well. coming up with the "fast money" crew at 5:00 and talked the most

ho heavily shorted stocks in light of this selloff. and it's been anything but a jolly week for stocks. dow down 2% since monday s. a santa claus rally still in the cards or on the verge of a correction? we want the know what you think. go to cnbc.com/rote to weivote . (vo) watching. waiting. for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

well, the major indexes keep pulling back from the record highs. how bad has it been for the markets this week? dominic chu is here to break it down. >> gravity taken hold a lot of stock market today as falling oil prices are pressuring energy stocks in particular and led in part to that market selloff of today. the s&p 500 is now on track to halt 7 weeks worth of gains and could have had 8 weeks in a row and now not. it rose 10% during that span. today it had its worst day since october 13th and lost 1.7%. the dow also on track to halt seven straight weeks of gains and rose 9.5% in that stretch. its worst performance today since october 9th. nasdaq with the worst day since

october 10th, as well. finishing down by 1.7%. the vix tracking market volatility up about 55% over the past 3 sessions, biggest three-day gain since october 13th and something some traders are watching, as well. s&p 500 energy sector leading the declines today and down about 6% over the past three trading days on a new multi-year low and broad based themes and again, kelly, no sense of panic just yet. remember, we're still about a handful of points away from record highs in the dow and the s&p 500. >> unless you're levered energy producer. thank you for now. dom, good to see you. >> is this the start of a correction? take our live poll with us. joining with us the panel, ed, good to see you. how concerned are you about the activity we're seeing in the market today?

>> i suspect this is a short-term pullback and that we'll head back up again pretty soon. i think the drop in the price of oil although in the short run hurts earnings overall for the s&p and also creates some uncertainty and the long run is unquestionably good news for the u.s. economy and having lower oil prices and a stronger dollar, you get less pressure, less upward pressure of inflation and that should be good for valuation here in 2015. >> the market is wrong, ed? >> no. market fluctuates from time to time. 10% corrections are pretty common. you have them once or twice a year on average. i don't think we're going to get to a 10% correction but normal fluctuations and pullbacks is normal standard market behavior and after a long run up, as we just went through, it's perfectly normal to see a bit of a pullback. >> hi, ed. it's stephanie. question for you on voluntarial.

it's kind of fair so i'm wond wondering what you think in terms of markets and is there a place outside the u.s. you're interested in buying, europe or china or india? and also, are you buying energy here? >> stephanie, first of all, great to see you, my old friend. i think the valuations have a little bit of a room to move upward. the u.s. right now is i think like a high-quality growth stock and paying a premium compared to equities of europe, for example, but i think so far we are going to stick with our u.s. overweight for a while and not surprised if next year we rotate into europe because they're cheaper but i'd like to see more progress on the economic and public policy front and see a little bit better growth before that move. >> nathan, ed is confident that stocks are going straight back up. but you were saying earlier you're not so sure. why? >> i got see how the consumer

behaves and the consumer, we surveyed 1,000, simple money, i'll summarize how they feel about the wages in one word. cranky. they're like, you know what? it's about time i got a raise. i appreciate a raise at the pump and that's because oil-producing nations and oil production. and i'm cranky. i want the know from ed. the market trading at 15.8 times forward earnings in 2015. that's not the 17 of today and implies traders today got it right by sayinging we don't see the profit going into 2015 so maybe we are starting to reprice ourselves to where we should be until we see something happen around the world that starts to give us more excitement. >> ed? >> i'll put it this way. interest rates both short term and long term about 3% below the long-term averages. looking at the fundamentals of equity valuation, if the discount rate goes down, you expect the valuation, that is

the price earnings ratio, to go up. i think we probably have seen valuations roughly in line with or maybe a tad above their long-term averages whereas if you look on the bond side of things, valuations are record highs. i think that valuations of the stocks are still reasonably favorable and that there's some room for upward movement of here because the overall environment is for lower discount rates and interest rates and should be good for stock valuatiovaluatio >> ed, one more thing. about 50, more than half of people right now voting saying this is the start of a correction. and also, there is skepticism of the general public of stocks and jack on twitter, when i was in the last period, he said it's like 2007. what do you say to these folks? >> i think, first of all, the economy is better but there's no doubt that there is still a great deal of anxiety both about the stock market and the economy

in the united states. half the people in polls say we are still in recession but i think you are starting to see some of that finally getting into the pockets of consumer, both because of energy and the last labor report we got a .4% increase in wages and we need to more months of that before it starts to have an impact on people but meanwhile that's the wall of weary and people nervous, we have a way to go in this market. >> thank you for being here, ed. and our poll's closed with 55% of people thinking this is the start of a correction. thank you for weighing in at home. we have breaking news on walgreens now. dom? >> a biggest drugstore chain in america in a pending merge we are alliance boots in europe while today the company walgreens announced that the president and ceo currently of walgreens has informed the company's board that he will retire shortly after the close of the merger. shareholders are scheduled to vote on this transaction on

december 29th so just in the couple of weeks here. in the interim here, chairman, current chairman james skinner will become the walgreets boots alliance executive chairman and current chairman of alliance boots. they will also start a succession search for the new ceo of the combined company. kelly, back over to you guys. >> dom, thank you. stephanie, look at that. shares responding to 2% upside almost. >> this is what the market wanted because alliance boots is so much better run than walgreens and kind of expected that you're going to see more and more of them take over, if you will. so now you have the ceo and cfo out and kind of a regime change and probably what they wanted getting in it at 60. >> here we go. another open seat at the top of a retailer. >> start a head hunting

placement for retailers. >> we might have a good business going. we have to find the right candidates because it's a really hard task. >> great point. much more on this market selloff. we're going to be joined by the cnbc all-stars. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪ ♪ my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. ♪ ♪ look here, daddy, i'm never coming back... ♪ discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around $329 a month.

welcome back. over to dominic chu for a quick earnings alert. we are watching shares of

restoration hardware. >> moving higher after posting better than expected third quarter results. the stock up about 5% here. 336,000 shares have traded so far and decent amount after hours on this particular earnings report. back over to you. >> that's got to be a tell. actually, let's talk about it. dom, stick around for the continuing coverage of the selloff and add bob pisani. rick santelli out in the bond pits at the cme. bertha coombs and the panel here. bertha, let's start with you because little notice is a fact that the nasdaq was the underperformer of the session today, was it not? that's my fault. bob, let's start with you. bob? >> yeah. what we saw today was obvious collateral damage of oil and the canadian banks hit and russian markets and commodity markets around the world get hit on oil and also more importantly slower

growth concerns were the issue and i think that's by and large the bigger issue with all of that said i'm not in the camp that thinks lower oil is a disaster. the s&p just off historic high. off 30% in the market today? >> that's facts. rick santelli, what are the next levels to watch? >> well, i think when it comes to oil, you know, anybody who looks at a 10-year chart of oil, only two spots to pick. 40 or 60. it isn't whether you hit them on the dime. it is about what the mean of trading will be pricewise two months from today. the mean closer to 40 or closer to 60? that's the way to look at it in my opinion. i'm going with the latter. i think 60. does it mean we can't trade 54 or 52? of course not. the real markets pricing on a mean over several month basis, once this bottom is found is very important. but you know, i had an epiphany

eating my six mcnuggets. >> dipped in barbecue sauce. >> i love them. i'm sorry. my epiphany businewas i think i understand why the world is down on the energy. i think it's a death knell and a perspective that we have when we now look at it through the lens of many that are of course so sensitive to the fact that we have, you know, 400 parts per million of co2 in the atmosphere. >> listen. so many of -- one of the points overlooked is extent to which positioning plays a role in the run-up of the commodity bubble and then the understood wining here. listen, when that happens you know as well as anybody, look out below. >> oh yeah. margin call central. jack and i were in agreement today. listen. it is nothing to fear. i think as a matter of fact there's so much dialogue and coverage of it, it takes maybe some of the black swan issues away. of course, there's collateral

damage and military offense on an offensive strategy you can use the word collateral damage. i think there's a very positive offense to dropping energy prices. will it bring margin calls? bring it big losses to hedges or big losses to some of the prop desks? yes. i think for the most part it's a good thing. >> all right. we'll circle back to dom in a second. bertha, sorry about that. we were saying, look, the nasdaq the underperformer of the day. talk to us about those declines. >> it is interesting here. when you look at chip stocks today being down, you're thinking what does that have to do with energy? but to a certain extent today, seeing people kind of selling what they could. chip stocks, bio tech stocks, they have been some of the best performers and small caps and among the worst hit for october. for the quarter now, some of the biggest bounce backs and gainers and sold here.

here's a source of funds. maybe people are getting margin calls and looking to sell some winners. interesting thinl, though, we talk about energy hit hard in terms of large cap names, it's the small cap energy names and that's part of the reason today we saw the small caps down so hard. for the quarter. >> good point. >> down about 15%. the small capped energy names are down about 37% and talking to one strategist, he said, boy, looking at the coverage universe they look a lot like the financials back in 2008. some are trading down at $1 and $2 a share. >> good point, dom, goes back to the oil price action today and not seeing an end to the pressure on the small cap names until you see an end to the decline in oil. >> it's a leading indicator of the rest of the market here. the interesting part about the small cap story is we talked about how much they went up yesterday. and they're down big today. it does not take a lot of ammunition, a lot of money to

push some of the small cap stocks around. look at the smaller cap energy names, trading maybe 100,000, 200,000, 300,000 trades a day and 500,000 sell order affects the stock materially. up against intel of 40 million shares a day traded, there's ample liquidity even though they go down and watching the small caps, that big move to the downside, down by 2.2%, again, maybe not a surprise to many seeing how they were up and leading the market even though other parts of the market were down today. >> nathan? >> great point. where's the recession. where's -- when's driving this? is europe in recession? i didn't get the memo. trying to figure it out. i look at a drop of 104 to 60 in oil, i go, quhoe, there must be something going on and looking for wall do here. >> bob? >> it's a demand side problem not a -- it's a supply side, excuse me, not a demand side problem so much and dom brought

up a very good point. these stocks are not just oversold. they are magnitude of order oversold. some of the stocks are three times their standard deviations oversold in the last month or so. they're at levels so far where they normally have been that you can't help but say oil dropping $10 the stocks rebound and energy's down 15% so far this year. far and away the worst performing sector. you want to bet that energy turns around and be among the best performing sectors in 2015. >> oh. >> it will be. >> this is the low. this is it. >> a lot of these energy producers have been where the jobs have been growing. and you're talking about regions where the jobs are. so if they start cutting back, that is going to impact the economy. certainly a lot of banks that have lent them money. not just talking about the debt levels that they have raised but loans and things. that's going to impact local

economies. >> these banks -- these companies are now discounting oil at well into the $50 some of them and at this point the production levels are already set to decline. it looks like rather seriously. and all i'm saying is buy low, sell high. i don't think we're that far necessarily from bottoms here. >> all right. rick, final word. >> you know, friday's close on the vix is 12. today it's 18. six points. it is 50% and i don't know that 50% adequately covers a six-point run-up in the vix. >> thank you. appreciate it. more of this coming up in the program. stunning decline in oil prices a factor in the market selloff but are we near the bottom for oil? we'll look at how bad it could continue to get this this space when we come right back. you don't need to think about the energy

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stocks falling sharply today. crude oil settling down 4.5%. another 4.5% decline. another low since july of 2009. with more, cnbc contributor and energy expert john kilduff.

welcome. >> good afternoon. >> did your jaw dro with another decline today because mine did? >> it did. and the two catalysts, weekly inventory report with a huge increase in gasoline inventories and diesel fuel categories and saudi oil minister gave u.s. drivers a gift coming out saying that the only way to change their oil output levels if customers came and asked them for more oil and that he didn't understand why he was even being a question down in peru at a conference why he should cut and just incredible how they're staring down this market in the face of these growing supplies. >> isn't it because they have to, john? ironically, the more the price falls the more they need to produce for the same amount of cash. >> the plan is clearly to break the back of higher cost producers and hasten the fall and get it out of the way saying that the whole group of opec

says something to hasten the fall on a daily basis now that they're shooting themselves in the foot. if you want to try to stabilize a market, don't follow what they're doing because every day they're either talking it down or stepping up massive discounts to asian discuss merles to record levels. today the kauuwaitis joined in doing that. this is a syndrome now. i mean, every day something else -- >> so what stops it? >> another log on the fire. >> what stops it? >> i can't see what stops it right now. may get stabilization or backing and filling but right now the supply trend is just so great, we're getting more of it. whether it's from u.s. shale still 100,000 more barrels hit the market from the u.s. next month we know from the eia report earlier in the week and libya getting more on the market and northern iraq and the wall of oil coming at us in a big way. >> how much worse do the discounts get, jon? they're at nearly historic levels right now, stephanie.

so it's hard for me to see how much more they get but they could go another dollar and part of that plan, by the way, is to forestall or exclude u.s. like con den sate oil to asia or started to in a big way earlier in the year and the sales cratered as a result of the discounts of middle east producers. >> nathan? >> when do we, if we can't answer the question of supply an demand, we go, you know, saudi arabia's got axes to grind on politics and iran suffer and russia suffer. they want to clean up the neighborhood and some of the consequences which would be the high price drillers and trying to get rid of is collateral damage to a broader political jend and that's what we're watching play out and when they have decided they have inflicted enough damage, that's when things change. >> that's right. the timing on that is little hard to discern. almost like the godfather movie

settling all the accounts with what's going on. they're trying to wreak the kind of havoc they did in 1998 when they took it to venezuela and the added benefit or dividend there is production more traditional at the time went away never to come back. we got killed on that one and i think that's what they're trying to replay here. >> i understand why we can point the finger but, frankly, i have read analysis saying opec doesn't have the influence they did. what if they cut production and not much of a response in the oil market? to what extent are with the victims of our own success here in the u.s.? >> i think that's the important lesson here is may be the victims of our ore success. opec is 40% of global production. when things get away from them on the upside, they have trouble calming things down and a similar position right now. if there was a big cut at the last meeting, if they had come together with russian and cut 3 million barrels a day, you would never have seen what's going on right now and no way but they

have, again, propping up this u.s. shale production which is what they're trying to strangle right now and hold underwater. >> really does remind you of watching the fed. we need the e equivalent lentd of somebody to jawbone the plarkt. thank you, john, for now, though. gives us a perspective of how much further it could go. over to dominic chu. hey, dom. >> this time, kelly, casey's general here higher in after hours. convenience store operator posted better than expected second quarter earnings and sales lighter than expectations and higher than they were the same time a year ago. the bottom line for the stock is up about 3.5% just 7,000, though, shares traded in the after market session. back over to you. >> thank you. when stocks sell off like this people head to cnbc and cnbc.com and the hot list and very much about the cold market when we come right back. there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else.

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welcome back. markets taking a big dive today and that had people diving into market stories on cnbc.com. is that right, allen? >> it is. you know, when the market does a dip sy doodle like this, people come in in swarms. >> dip sy doodle? >> dip sy doodle. i have three standouts right now and what you've been hitting on, on your show. rick santelli talking about the spike in the vix. maybe a little overdone. we have a feature from our

futures now friends, internet show, talking about that exact phenomenon. how it shows how traders are skittish these days. that's getting a lot of traffic. number two, dominic chu talking about how the small caps are getting smacked around and wrote up that story for us on the website. people have been diving into the domino's good take of which small caps are chased and then finally john kilduff was talking about the sniping between saudi arabia and iran. i love it when i can put treachery in a headline. that's getting people going in. these fissures in opec has people really acutely interested. those are the three standouts right now. lots of market coverage getting action from the readers. >> glad it's all up there for people to we rude. thank you. busy day. the dow, s&p tumbling to the lowest levels in a month. btig worried and he's next. how's the market and economy

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markets ending the day in the red and the worst single day of losses since october. dan greenhouse worried about the trading action today and joins us now with the panel, dan. what changed, what about today's activity in particular that perks your interest? >> i don't know that there's anything particular about today although certainly the worst of the last couple of days and the action of the last few days that has sort of increased the awareness, if you will. i think at the end of the day a lot of discussions boil down to markets go up and down sometimes and this might be one of those periods where they go lower. especially so after the terrific run we have had. but i will tell you most importantly our conversations with clients have really shifted in the last few days. a lot of people are wondering whether they're missing something in the oil space, whether this isn't as maybe brian kelly suggested supply led

decline and a demand issue here. >> dan, when's interesting, as well, the signals of the most of the market and most of the guests we have had on say it's great news for the u.s. economy and consumer, maybe pressure on stocks but it's a which is fine except that look as what's happens in other parts of the commodity complex. it's hard to fick out, and make that's because the market itself doesn't know whether it is a slowing demand story or not. >> there's certainly a lot of crosscurrents here, and those admittedly that would not be the first time in this recovery where certainly markets were giving you mixed messages. for lack of a better word, the carnage in the high-yield space, particularly in ccc rated and below, and energy bonds in particular is catching up. i'm inherently a skeptical person more generally. when you hear how everyone is day -- my interest gets piqued.

i would rye mind people when housing prices were declining in '05 and '06, the trending thought at the time was, well, lower housing prices would make things more affordable for people and that's a good thing. >> dan, i pay a lot of too long to what you say. in october earp clear all the leading indicators were at my back, and i fought that's correct i would do that at my own peril. you change your opinion at all now? >> i think a point earlier, is the u.s. economy is still doing quite good. if there was a larger story, i feel like we would have heard more from other companies in other industries. certainly you have conoco phillips, and a number of energy companies talking about reducing head count, and any number of cell side firms are taken down their estimates, but you haven't

hearty that from caterpillar, boeing, ingersoll-rand. i haven't heard too much of that yet. >> though those are two of the weaker names -- >> dan, i just wanted to ask you about europe, do you think it's a lot worse and that's what's driving the oil price situation at this point? >> i don't think they're in a recession yet, stephanie, but i think let's be clear here, these guys have been on the verge of a recession in perpetuity for the last couple years. >> do you think draghi is going to be able to get the approval from, you know, merkel that -- to do something big in january or in february? sooner rather than later? >> i think it would be shocking at this point if they did not engage some some sort of asset perform programs, but i'm not upyarp economist, but i can't figure out why europe's troubles

are solved with a qe program focusing on soorch bonds. i'm just not sure that the results -- >> and this is what is so interesting, to your point about you would be shocked if they don't do t look at the ten-year german bund, italy, france even. i understand that greece is blowing out a bit. if they don't deliver, what happens, is the entire european sort of spread compression trade off? or is this all just banks financing the sovereigns? >> talk us through how that money moves around. to some degree this is my favorite question. if what happens if the ecb does not engage -- there are credible answers in both directions, that they fall off a cliff, deflation takes hold, bond yields move lower, blah blah blah. i think certainly our view is yields will move higher, though admittedly i'm not a european economist f but at this point you have to believe that they have to do something on the qe

front. again, the question from my standpoint is whether it, quote/unquote works. >> show me. i'm from missouri. >> we'll drill down into that a bit more. just as we were getting some good news on that front. so dan greenhouse stay right there. more when we come back from this quick break. two weeks later. look, credit karma-- are you talking to websites again? this website says "free credit scores." oh, credit karma! yeah it's actually free. look, you don't have to put in your credit card information. whew! credit karma. really free credit scores.

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welcome back. will it be a repeat tomorrow in nathan, i want to start with you. >> i think you have to get your emotions in check and there's three reasons you sell a stock -- there's something wrong with the stock, you need the money or there's something better to do with it. if you can't fill one of those reasons, my suggestions is go away, wait for a christmas rally, go kiss your kids. do almost anything else except make a foolish move. all right? by the way, when the stock market guys give you mine, stephanie will tell you, you take it. take some gains and put it aside. >> stephanie, what do you think? >> i think you have to make your shopping list. i still think that the u.s. is the place to be, but i think the values overseas are quite interesting, so let oil

stabilize before getting really aggressive and then pick your spots. >> 60% decline that is -- basically just since, nay bores down that much. newfield down 40%, same no noble, halliburton, again worth off 40%. dan greenhouse you see my point here, but oil today was still dli, the what do you think happens? >> broadly spelling for the market. you need to -- i personally tried to catch a fall knife, and lost a few points. taking a wait-and-see is probably the best view now. >> listen, retailers look stungingly attractive if you believe that everything is fine and they'll get a tax cut through lower oil prices, but again right now in the market more generally, it looks like

you need oil prices to stabilize. >> that goes back -- we were having a discussion a second ago about sentiment among retail executives. not a single one of them at the event the other day really saw gdp growth even as strong as it is. so do you think that changes? >> you know, i certainly hope they're doing that, underpromise and overdeliver. i hope they don't believe what they're saying, because it's not an optimistic viewpoint. i hope that retail consumer is a lot better than the retailers are saying they are. we'll have to wait and see. >> american express's comments were really important. they had the best cyber monday ever. >> i think -- 40% from the oil and gas will go towards shopping and dining out. so go take a look at that area. >> you can put that on the am

excard. thank you for being here. >> a huge thanks to the panel as well and for homing in on the important stuff. "fast money" is coming up in a few moments. melissa lee, what is on tap? a big down day. we'll look at the most shorted stocks in the market right now. >> that i want to know. over to you guys. "fast money" starts right now. \s. i'm melissa lee. your traders are tim seemo, steve grasso, karen finer man and brian kelly. oil falling more than 4% after opec cut the demand forecasts for next year to the lowest level in more than ten year. energy a big component of the high-yield market. high yield also taking a hit today. many investors are concerned it could lead to a rise in defaults. $60 se