we had more than one year in a row we had depression that lasted effectively ten years. was still an awfully good century. i wouldn't want to leave china with another 85 years to go in the century. >> where does that leave us? the united states? >> yeah. if this is the chinese century. >> no. >> are we going to become the brits? >> their economy is going to be bigger than our economy even though they are going to be poorer than us on a per capita basis. there's just a lot of people in china. the fact they are catching up, doesn't mean you're the most fabulous person of the year. that's pivotal. the big question is whether the u.s. is going to grow at 2.75% or 3.75% on our size and

economy. in china maybe 80%, 100% the size of the american economy, the question is whether they are going to grow 9%, 5%. that is a much bigger question with more consequence to growth in the world, incremental gdp in the world. to make this clear, any time somebody is growing in the world, it's good for everybody in the world. obviously, it's great in the country which growth is occurring. that incremental growth results in incremental demand which will draw support exports by other players, as well. >> companies are sitting on a lot of cash. what are they doing? they are pursuing buybacks.

how are we supposed to think about buybacks? are they a good thing or bad thing? or propping up the stock market? >> people are making decisions incrementally whether it's better to invest in returns are better to augment your business. sometimes it's sensible. to take the predicate of your question, i don't think that's all companies are doing. by the way, efficiency sometimes can be the enemy of maximizing the labor force. a lot of the investment that's being done, kind of what goes along with the efficient economy and the sharing economy and investment in technology is capital you're spending is getting return for the capital. it's not augmenting labor.

it's coming at the expense of labor. that's creating all sorts of residual problems in the country. >> how much do you worry about that? >> we have to adapt to it. i would no sooner want to bar it or regret it than i would curse the tides or gravity or some natural evolutionary force. history is filled with people trying to hold back progress. i consider the efficiency, the creation of new technologies, i consider that advancement. i think we need new ways of deploying labor from industries where they are less needed into activities and services where they are more needed and get paid for doing it. >> you got me thinking about uber. you are working with uber.

is that a company you think -- it's an extraordinary growth company at a $40 billion valuation. do those things make sense to you? >> i'm not going to -- i'm going to avoid talking about a specific company and talk about the nature of the companies. that are kind of in that space. they can. phenomenal growth rates. they really are generating wealth. they are making people work at such a level of efficiencies they need fewer people. >> fewer people and lower labor costs. if you say who is getting that $20 billion, it's not going to

labor. that $20 billion which is a saving of what otherwise would have to labor is attaching itself to the people who put up the capital to build the company we are talking about. all of a sudden you have a wealth creation because maybe that $20 billion, some of that is wealth created, but some is wealth that steered away from labor aggregate to become a return on capital, i.e. people who invested in new technologies. you are seeing tension between capital and labor that i think is fueling people's anxiety and feeling of wealth discrepancy. mergers and acquisitions. we are at a height we surpassed in terms of the number of transactions volume from between. >> which is not the bar.

>> that's the question. is that a barometer of the market, a barometer of confidence? what do you think of that as? >> the market issues provide a context. equity prices, low financing costs. by the way, the feeling and anxiety financing costs are about to get higher. the anxiety rates will be higher can be done today. that's why a little bit of inflation is better than a little bit of deflation. you have to look at it as a burst of confidence on the one hand and a feeling that coffers are full. strategies have been informed

but in abeyance for a while. most shareholders are activists now nobody wants ceos to have an easy life. it's gotten to a point where they don't have to go to their boards and say this is why i want to do something. you have to defend yourself against the charge you are not doing enough. >> do you think activism are is a good thing for the markets? >> is it a short-term game, a long-term game? when you look at a situation where it doesn't go well? democracy is faulty? >> there are some things you could run in a vermont town hall. you have represented democracy. i would say the movement towards

more activism has been picked up and supported by, i would say, traditional long-term conservative historically management supportive institutional investors. i think that is good evidence of the fact that the spur and the provocation of activists are appreciated by the market and do good. can they go further and become back bending and be a negative? of course it can. in some cases it has. >> what do you think of companies? who have government structures that keep the founders in control and don't effectively allow the type of democracy we've been talking about in the boardroom? >> "new york times." >> "new york times" is one of them. touchee. let me go in a different direction.

think inversions are unpatriotic? >> i went to law school, i was a tax lawyer for five years before i went over to this side. it's not even a patriotic duty to maximize your taxes. predominantly what needs to be done is the tax law has to be written in a way that it doesn't stimulate the kind of behavior you would like to avoid. that's how it is. people who manage companies are

my activity outside the united states, i can't tell what you shareholder base is outside the united states. probably a lot of it. people are charged with not evading tax but appropriately organizing their affairs to avoid taxes. >> if you had a real headquarters, that's one thing. do you look at it as a distinction or not? >> there is a board in there somewhere. there are docktrines that say yu organize your ways that there is no other economic purpose other than tax, the tax authorities can look through that and get at the economic reality of the deal. those tools are there right now to do that. you want to have more certainty. the idea of telling somebody you should go left will cost you more, right will cost you less,

it's your patriotic duty to go left. you think that's a weird situation to get into. but by the way, that kind of pressure is a fact of life that bears on people who run companies. i'm not saying it's not a real pressure and should be dismissed. i think that it shouldn't be what's relied upon to steer behavior. >> this came after the antonio weiss situation. the acl, i read about this sent letter to banks including yours about the idea certain executives on their way out of leaving wall street on to washington have been able to keep or get bonuses they otherwise would have begin up had they gone to arrival, retired or what have you. >> right. >> goldman sachs had lots of people, has a long tradition of

executives going to washington. do you have a problem with that? >> do i have a problem with people being made to surrender the accumulated wealth they accumulated throughout their business career to have the privilege of serving the country? is that the question? >> that is one way to put it. >> the reason why you let people take their compensation out -- again, what people have is the clamoring on bonuses. that should be forward stock, in order to take a public sector job you have to relieve yourself of that confidence. that stock has to be abandoned

or vested and allowed to be sold. now, it's hard enough to contemplate going through the process and what one has to do to serve the public, including the sacrifice of big income in a lot of cases. generally, if you say you can't vest someone's stock, that is a way you don't want anybody in this businesses to go in public service. >> there are a lot of businesses where the bonus doesn't exist. i as you know because i've written about it, i agree with you. i'll take the other side which is to say the public looks at it and thinks there is a bribe going on. there is something amiss. there are people who have that view.

>> the idea if you have to give up something for public service, you have to give it up. >> people in finance to be paid in stock that invests over a very long period. more is coming in that form for a longer period. you are asking somebody forea lot to do that. why are people making something that's hard so much harder. what purpose? i hear rand paul was coming through. >> we have a speaker program. two weeks ago we had the

cardinal in and derek jeter. >> ted cruz came, too. who are you supporting? >> derek jeter. you historically supported democrats. hillary clinton had a connection. >> she was a new york senator and a policy maker representing the people of new york. i've always been a fan of hillary clinton. >> is it a liability she has a relationship with wall street? >> no. i think it's a virtue to have a relationship with a lot of institutions and a lot of parts of society.

excessively bound, i would agree with you. what's happening now, if you have a relationship with anybody in this sector, if it's a military. when i was young, if you touched the military in any way, you couldn't imagine that now in a post 9/11 era, but post vietnam era, if you touched anybody connected to the military that was a litmus that was bad. wall street right now is a very dangerous place to be. people in a political life should be a bridge. i don't think it's a virtue to declare a big segment of the economy offlimits.

>> let's take a couple of questions from the audience if we can. >> you led your ipo. >> what was it? >> your ipo. >> 15 years ago. >> six months late r may '99. ups six months after that caught up with you. you're still top ten. people were skeptical you and ubs would be able to retain a partnership. >> that is lloyd blankfein with andrew sorkin.

talking about above-trend growth. saying that low oil prices bad to the u.s. economy to him does not compute. nice line on the data out of china. >> asked whether he believed it? >> said, do i believe the numbers? i believe there are numbers. >> nice way to punch. they covered the economy and make macrodata. he doesn't get the argument the drop in oil is bad for the u.s. economy. it's something we heard from larry fink. not to mention jack lew the treasury secretary this morning. >> blankfein going along the argument he made. it's a huge tax cut for the american consumer.

we hit $60.09 a barrel this morning. >> oil is flat and energy is a leader in this market rebound, which we are seeing the dow up 170 points. s&p having a 1% move. we are not going to see that four days in a row of declines if we continue in this strength. >> it's still early. >> it is a big day here at the new york stock exchange. lendi lendingclub making its debut. looks like it is pricing above the expected range. bob pisani is on the floor. >> that is quite a change. a few days ago, indications for the price talk was $10 to $14, $10 to $12. up to $12 to $14. it priced last night at $15. right now indications $21 to

$23. why are we waiting so long for it to open? there is a lot of demand. this is a very public auction. lead book runner is morgan stanley. morgan stanley is assembling a book. 58 million shares they have sold. goldman sachs, credit suisse, various institutions will be allowed to start selling those shares this morning. they are putting together a book indicating how much demand of people who want to sell and who want to buy. when there is a lot of demand, it takes longer. that is what's happening right now. >> they just bumped it up to $22 to $24 right now. you can see various officials standing over there.

renaud is standing next to tom farley. there will be another one going next week. individuals who might have very high credit card debt can consolidate that credit card debt. maybe it's 14%, 16% and sell to investors for 7%, 8%. >> we'll continue to check in with you, bob pisani. strong day to go public for lendingclub. markets are certainly in rally mode with the dow up 1%. s&p 500 up more. the nasdaq up 1.3%.

later, ray dalio will be speaking at the conference with andrew.

>>. >> we are up 190 points on the dow. s&p 23 plus. good to see both of you this morning. >> thanks for having me.

>> where are you on this low energy price, bad for the economy narrative. are you pushing back on that? >> no. we raised our gdp forecast. you talked about the tax cut to the low-end consumer. it will help transportation. there are a lot of pockets of the economy it does help. we think you can push back on earnings a little bit. we took down earnings to around 124. we are looking for 2200 on the s&p. >> why would multiples expand as earnings are slowing? >> you have to take a global view. if you look around the world, look at europe, japan, emerging markets, there is only one place to invest in the world, the united states. we have economic growth. we have positive earnings going into 2015. we have interest rates that are

high. we keep talking about how low the interest rate environment is. when you look at our ten year and compare it to broad-based europe, compare it to japan, we think capital will actually possibly flow into our markets. you are getting a 20% return in our equity market this year. according to the german bund yielding 0.6%, you are getting a huge pick-up on yield. we are bullish the dollar. we think it's in a secular bull market to get the benefit of the dollar as a foreign investor. there are a lot of positives we think going forward. >> i want to ask about the technicals. i want to bring in mike first on this idea about oil and the market. we are up almost 200 points on the dow coming off the worst day for the s&p 500 since early october. is this a preview of what 2015 will be like given the policy divergences and return to normal interest rates? >> i'm not sure it's a preview

of 2015. it suggests we'll have periods over the course of next year when the confluence of geopolitical issues, economic fallout or financial volatility will contribute to this price action to markets. i would be careful to not overinterpret the current volatility directly related to oil. as was said before, what blanken fi bla blankfein was talking about. >> when i look at 2015, lower sustained oil prices are a net positive. where volatility will come from are geopolitical events. >> geopolitical events driven by what? the general terrorism we worry about every day or activities that are spurred by asset dislocation like we are seeing in energy? >> i would say geopolitical

issues are largely big stage issue. they will be focused on issues related to the middle east and ongoing concerns about the rise of isis. i would also suggest we could increasingly see some issues centering around asia. as we see the continuing push towards china and pushing your own territorial admissions, this will have an impact on geopolitical stages, as well. the second issue you mentioned about energy prices, i think those are going to be driven by not only political decisions that may be made in places like arab but economic decisions in north america about should we make that investment in terms of capital spending. are we going to look at this as a long-term opportunity or short term. >> with all your work in technical analysis, $60 a barrel on wti.

is that the bottom? >> crude reality is it's going to be a slippery slope for crude oil. we think crude oil can hit $50. >> do you? >> yes, we do. even though they are decimated, we don't see a bottom technically. from a performance standpoint, i think energy stocks are big underreformers in 2015. you can pick up some yield particularly in the master limited partnerships. you are clipping a coupon. they have the cash flow. we do think the sector will have to take time to actually heal. >> we saw art cashin pull out his dow 18,000 had. was that a jinx? >> that was the kiss of death. >> are we going to see that this year? >> every time you hit the round number in the dow, you get a pullback. rarely do you break straight through it. markets can go up 8% next year. the dow could get around 19,000. we think we are above 19,000

next year. >> we are hiding the hats. thank you so much good. to see you again. let's get to the nymex for breaking news on oil here. >> with all the focus on oil which is trading at $60.77, fat gas has been a stealth mover to the down side. prices at $3.75. we have a draw on our hands here. 51ing about cubic feet. that is more than traders are expecting. we are seeing prices rise. temperatures are starting to get cold so demand increasing for nat gas. to put it in context. we saw last year 91 billion cubic feet. this isn't as bad. stocks are progressing in a nice way. again, traders are saying at these levels under $4, nat gas has room to the up side here. back to you. >> we see it climbing. thanks. let's get to kate kelly with breaking news out of that deal

book conference. >> weighing in for the very first time on yesterday's landmark decision from an appellate court on insider trading. after being way layed by andrew sorkin off the stage, she was not going to take questions but took one. >> we are currently reviewing this decision. we are in dialogue with the southern district of new york attorney's offers about it. we have there is no question it is a significant decision. my initial sense is it took the opinion of the decision an overly narrow view of insider trading law. that is a concern. we are continuing to review it. >> that dialogue with u.s. attorney's office no doubt contains discussion about whether to appeal this decision by asking a full second circuit of judges in new york to hear the arguments again rather than the three judges who did in april or asking the supreme

court itself to hear it out. that would be made by the justice department but with the s.e.c.'s input. white will be grappling what's next with her own civil case against s.e.c. founder steve cohen and insider trading cases they may be working on. >> we are awaiting the first trade on lendingclub. the indication is it is opening higher than that $15 price. indication $23 to $25 range. bob pisani says demand is holding up the first trade. we'll continue to follow that for you. we'll be speaking here first to the lending club ceo soon as the stock starts trading.

here are the top stories we are watching. 10:35 on wall street. urban out fitters the biggest gainer rising 10%. the apparel retailer issuing an upbeat sales outlook for holiday quarter. business inventories rose 0.2% in october in line with forecast. average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose slightly last week standing at 3.93%. that is according to freddie

mac. >> watching the dow closely. almost wipes out the losses from yesterday. maybe another eight points to completely undo what the bears did yesterday. s&p up 27. crude is also higher after hitting $60.09. got close to that five handle. >> i would add to the market check positive signals on the u.s. consumer today. that retail sales number coming out 0.7%. it's the biggest jump in months. much more than economists were looking for. i mentioned urban outfitters. even lululemon which has been under pressure and down for the year in terms of the stock came out with an earnings beat. >> restoration hardware. >> there you go.

>> 22% comp. looks like a misprint. that's what they did in the quarter. one of jim's favorite names. >> he was talking about it earlier. lauding the decision by management to produce a video he encouraged people to see about some of their new approach. it's all working quite well. >> are they still doing those catalogs? they are size of phone books? that's their thing. >> it's odd to watch the action here, up/down whipsaw action and greece down. when we come back for the deal book conference in manhattan, mary barra with andrew sorkin. you're driving along,

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show you a chart of

lendingclub which had its first trade looking at a nice 65% advance. >> $24.72. lendingclub opens at $24.72. this has been a long journey. quite a difference in terms of price. a few days ago we were talking $10 to $12. then it was increased to $12 to $14. it priced at $15. throughout the morning, progressively moved to the up side. finally as you see here opening over $25.25 right now. the biggest peer-to-peer lender and first one to go public. i think we'll see more of them.

still a big day. you saw the employees here, the people in red here who are members of the club. it's been a big day for all of them. you see tom farley standing around. renaud making his way over to talk to you. >> in terms of the timing of the logistics and getting that first trade on the tape today, everything go as expected? >> it took longer than i thought. demand was stronger than anybody was anticipating. i said earlier that it was a tough night overnight in ipo land.

seven breathing a sigh of relief that this one is a big hit in the open. >> lendingclub made its debut. joining us in a first on cnbc interview is lendingclub's founder and ceo renaud. great to have you back. we had you on before. the waiting game has been would they do this? has this process taken longer than you thought? >> we tried the first time august 27th. >> you've got to be happy with your bankers. for opening up more than 60%, price listing right. how did that come together?

>> we think we have transformed the entire banking system making it more transparent and consumer friendly. >> that's grand ambitions to transform the banking industry. >> it is. >> many people would say no way you are going to be able to do that. you've been operating in an environment some would say is at least relatively positive in terms of consumers and their ability to pay back money. what about when things get bad as they inevitably due in the cycles of the u.s. economy? >> it was good to get out '07, '09 when the unemployment rate

jumped. we believe our investors on the platform continued to have positive returns. what characterizes alendingclub we can operate lower cost. >> you are doing this on a week where a lot of major banks talked about continued regulatory headwinds. how would you characterize the headwinds? >> i don't see a lot of headwinds. we work very closely. we enjoy good relationship with regulators. they in general feel we are doing the right thing. we are making credit more affordable for consumers.

we are doing so in a way that is responsible with fixed rates product. fixed monthly payments. they are very consumer-friendly products. that gives us a lot of good relationship. >> does it bother to be called a shadow bank, so to speak? >> that is not the case. we work with banks. we fit squarely within the banking system. in many ways we work with banks. we talk about transforming the banking system, we work with banks. >> you are the intermediary not the lender. you are not running a balance

sheet you have to worry about capital requirements. i'm curious about the ultimate audience here. again, some would say you're accessing a particular audience that is a need that can't go to a bank at a certain dollar amount. you are going to run out of room to operate. >> it's not the case. we've been increasingly mainstream. the primary reason why consumers come to us is not because of the decline of the bank. you have bank loans, credit cards. the main reason is to refinance with a lower interest rate or get credit at the lower interest rate better terms. and a better experience than with banks. >> what happens when interest rates rise? >> we don't think we are rate sensitive at all. when interest rates rise, all interest rates rise. our ability to compress the spread remains the same.

we have prime plus. >> what will you do with the money you raised today? obviously trading well above $15 a share. what are you going to use it for? >> that gives us a larger capital base. gives us more option in terms of how we grow in the future. we made an acquisition this year. we might do more in the future. >> are you looking overseas? >> we have more forecast on the domestic markets. domestic opportunities are so big. it's trillions of dollars. it's not an immediate opportunity for us. >> john meeks from the board is here, too. >> congratulations. >> thank you. >> it's been nice getting to know you in advance and now that you're public, come back. >> i've got a lot of people

here. are these your employees? >> employees, guests. when we come back, bridgewater's ray dalio live from the deal club. kid: hey dad, who was that man?

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>> let's to the get to the santelli exchange. >> hi carl. our guest on the opinion page in the "wall street journal" and on weekends over the years. thanks for taking the time. >> good to see you rick. >> a couple of articles i've just been saving to talk to you. one, does fed read election returns? with regard to the wealth. good commentary there. maybe you can share it. >> my point was simple we were relying too much on the fed to get this economy growing again. janet yellen gave a big speech of inequality but the fed has been the big booster for inequality. creating the boosters if for

rich but not much else. washington has preferred to rely on the fed than do the job of heavy lifting. >> and i so agree with you. but i think we can even dig down deeper and see this for what it is better when the focus is europe. so much talk of structure reform. talk of reform without action is a dangerous equation. elaborate. >> the european central bank, some of its members have begun to make this point. you are creating bubbles and panics about tapering and when interest rates might start to rise to unwind all of these high risk, high leverage trades. you are not getting the growth. you are just getting increasingly dangerous unstable financial markets from the fed being the sole support of growth from the monetary policy and the creation of these asset bubbles. >> and not many talk about it. let's switch gears a bit.

whose is afraid of cheap oil? i like that one too. maybe you can tell me when the central banks make the boogeyman deflation, but that isn't what i see. i see a middle class whose not seeing their costs get away from them. why is everybody so down on cheap oil? is is it because the climate change crowd look tag demise of the alternative energy market? >> that is part of it. subsidizing electric cars and wind and solar power. this is a wonderful god send. the best thing that's happened to working americans and average income americas since obama became president. terrific for the economy and animal spirits and the country's sense of skpiand its itself to

ability to lead. >> i see the most aggressive arguments being made in geopolitics. venezuela and russia maybe worse than in the past because of the revenue losses. but we put sanctions on with them. can you elaborate. >> the history is different. when these countries start losing energy revenues that is when they have to start listening to their observe people because the rulers don't have all the power and all the money in their own pockets to control everything. so people who think this is destabilizing plight be right but in a good way. >> well, thank you. i always look forward to wednesdays and i thank you for that as well. >> my pleasure. >> rick santelli, thank you. the dow up nearly 200.

a strong market and a strong debut for lendingclub today here. we'll talk to tom farley. here's a question for you: when electricity is generated with natural gas instead of today's most used source, how much are co2 emissions reduced? up to 30%? 45%? 60%? the answer is... up to 60% less. and that's a big reason why the u.s. is a world leader in reducing co2 emissions. take the energy quiz -- round 2. energy lives here.

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lending club taking over the new york stock exchange. red jackets, green arrows for the stock. opening sharply higher. up 53%. it was up more than 66 percent. priced at 15, now trading above 23 a share. a strong debut. you just heard from the ceo the first peer to peer lending group to go public. >> i want to just take a minute on the machine that gets me to where i am. okay? when we have a lot of -- when there is an upward debt cycle and lowering of interest rates, it reduces debt service payments. when interest rates hit zero and there are large credit spreads you can no longer have monetary

policy and interest rate. you have quantitative easing. when there is the purchase of those, those purchases cause those returns to go down, expected returns to go down and causes asset prices to rise. and that he has a been the transportation mechanism through there. now we have a situation in the united states to some extent n europe to a complete extent and japan in a complete extent, where they are above zero interest rates and basically zero spreads. that means the effectiveness of monetary policy will be less going forward. we're in the mid part of a cycle and this is an easy part, good part of the cycle. as time progresses, let's say in a year or two, whenever there might be a need for easing of the monetary policy we are going in a situation in which the effect of ability to ease is very limited and that will be at

the same time as asset prices will be come parrparatively hig. now i think it is a good environment. we are long equities and we are holding those positions and it is a relatively good time. what i worry about is if we were to take a year or two in the future, what the effectiveness of monetary policy will be, particularly in a deflationary vierm. and when i say deflationary environment, we are have been in a secular declining interest rate move. every cyclical peak and trough and interest rates has been lower than the one before until we hit zero. so there is a force. i woint take too much time to describe but when we're at zero

that day will come in terms of inflationary pressures. so it is that concern at that point. i think it will be a big difference in the world economy. so we're almost at the end of the ability to squeeze more out of it. when you look at capitalism, it is that spread in the transition mechanism that makes lending and that go through. and then there is lowering interest rates and lowers debt service payments that. dynamic, which capitalism is based on is going to become decreasingly effective in the -- not immediate but longer term future. >> let's open it up to get a couple questions for ray. if you have a hand, please throw your hand up.

>> how do you manage all these tapes and recordings? you must have a job devoted to just managing this. >> well we make them rel -- we have systems. >> pretty fascinating discussion there at the conference in mid town manhattan. joining us this morning at "squawk alley," henry blodget. editor and ceo of business inside ir. kayla is off today. jon fortt as well. i can imagine you agreeing with henry that these long-term deflationary forces are going to meet their maker essentially as central banks run out of ammo. >> at some point it will unwind and we'll go into reverse and all the things bringing up asset prices will work in reverse. one thing that is encouraging, he did say next year, this year looks fine but at some point.

>> you are standing by your call from the past year. >> i'm officially chicken little. >> 30 percent. >> at least. >> 30% decline. >> unless something has changed fundamentally, stocks are egregiously overvalued. it doesn't mean they can't go higher. you can keep stretching it and stretching it but at some point at least based on history there will be a nasty snap back. >> and the show is devoted to technology. a lot of the dalio's forces are driven through innovation and things like tech. >> it's easy to forget we're in the midst of this really interesting period where the cloud and mobile are opening up new possibilities for productivity. the question was asked, are we going to get anything like the web ever again? we possibly are it. the consumer andal in mobile

being at the saturation level. but we haven't taken advantage of the tools to the extent we could. and we just had ibm talking about using ios and the cloud to drive productivity and the enterprise. so do we see the gains that end up flowing through and justifying some of the valuat n valuations. >> and what oil's done to the markets. all of these fields out there, the level of productivity. the way shale producers do more with less. i wonder where your head is on oil and whether or not it is going to create massive dislocations. >> i'm far from expert on oil but it is inconceivable to me that is it is just one side of the equation. everyone is talking about the supply side. there's definitely been a drop in demand. and that is part of it. and long-term, lower oil prices are healthy for the economy. that is good. but a drop this quick is going

to cause lots of disruption we may not is have seen yet. >> i also wonder, look at the situation the drop in demand, emerging markets having a rough go over the past few months. is that a positive a year or two out if we see stabilization in those markets. we have the multinationals that right now are doing well in the u.s. if that slows and they are able to look over to a malaysia or indonesia -- >> going back to the productivity point. you have seen company likes uber and lending club a spectacular ipo today. these are now build on the platform that we're talking about. and everybody thinks about productivity, and think oh well it's existing businesses that get more efficient. that is part of it. but it is always these businesses that could not have existed suddenly burst into existence and create enormous problems for the businesses that have owned the world for a long time. >> because of advent of cloud and mobile and we're talk more

about lending club in a minute. amazon joining netflix on the award circuit. nominated for the golden globe, best actor in the amazon serious transparent. along withnomination for netflix. the early reviews not kind for marco polo. creatively just a middling mess. something so average that a basic channel could have duplicated it for about a million dollars less. >> broadcast television has had how many failed pilots over the years. is netflix allowed to have a bomb? >> absolutely. and it doesn't matter in the same way it matters with a network that depends on advertising on that particular show to make its money. first, what do the critics know?

people may actually love it. all though there was a very tight review. just saying it blows. >> written by a seven grader. >> nailed it. but people like it. all this is designed to do is to keep paying your subscription. it actually doesn't really matter whether anybody watch this is particular show. >> -- how much it cost to create, right jon. >> there is the bigger angle on this too. netflix is able to see what sorts of things and settings and genres people want to watch. so it's set in these various locations. you have actors in various states of undress. they know they are going to hit a certain demographic of people who want to watch that regardless how terrible the plot is? >> and international opportunity. how many terrible movies that do bad in the united states and make 700 million overseas. so some of the world's 7 billion

people may like the show. >> some of the dialogue in the show was pretty bad. >> but your point is well taken. but i keep thinking back to the statistics we saw when house of cards season two was launched. what percentage of viewers binged the whole season on the first weekend? a significant portion of the viewing audience. >> there is a certain set of people going to sit back and look for something to watch. might turn this on. who knows. >> and look how many shows they have. it is thousands. it is not like a network that only has 24 hours. they bet the farm on this and because it's terrible nobody watches for an hour in prime time every night it's kills them. netflix is not that way. >> stock has not been a performer this year. for a company whose ceo says broadcast tv has 16 more years to live.

>> it has been a tremendous performer for the last five years. absolutely tremendous. and is carrying a the monstrous valuation. so one year, who cares. they are on the right track. everything is moving to digital. they have the right model for that and that is new kind of bet. it is hard to make great shows. >> what does broadcast tv really mean anymore though. it's really mass distribution. like talking about cable versus --. we talk about antennas 20 years ago. who evening thinks about that anymore. >> people love shows, great shows will continue to do wonderfully in the digital age but there is not enough talent to go around that every network out there and every digital service that wants to have great shows can have them. there is not enough. >> good point. by the way a note since we did mention amazon, ceo jeff boezos

is an investor in business insider through his personal company, bezos acquisitions. -- in 2014 dre may more than justin bieber, one direction and paul mccartney combined. after tax it is going to be half o that. you would take it wouldn't you fort? they did an incredible amount of work. i sat down with them years ago when ivene was really pushing them the first time. dr. dre, love to see that album but you can afford to not put it

out in the you get around to it. >> lending club spiking in its debut this morning. we're going to talk to nyse president tom farley about the latest ipo. and is lyft too cute to take on uber? and we're still watching the markets. the dow up almost 200 points. the one and only art cashin will join us as markets try to recoup what they lost yesterday. "squawk alley" back in a minute. twhat do i do?. you need to catch the 4:10 huh? the equipment tracking system will get you to the loading dock. ♪ there should be a truck leaving now. i got it. now jump off the bridge. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable.

>> lending club of course making its debut at the nyse today. >> tom farley is here with me in his lending club red jacket. just saw the stock price move. henry blodget called it a spectacular cameo. was it smooth from your end. >> very smoothly. i have been excited about this company for months. love what they are doing. job growth comes from small

businesses and new small businesses. and they are making it a lot easier for individuals and small businesses to have access to capital which is so important. >> and what's interesting in particular is it is the first one of these so called peer to peer lenders. there are hundreds of them to go public. that is an important test. are you kbpting to see more of these? >> certainly. i'm excited about the entire industry. because ultimately an individual or a small business with access to capital can become a larger business that one day will go public on the new york stock exchange much like lending club did today. >> and he said he was going to use his proceeds perhaps to buy other to grow even bigger. you have been on the job six months and gone through the alibaba and lending club ipo. quite a year for the exchange. >> it's been a fun time. the largest ipo ever. largest israeli ipo. and today lending club one of

the most exciting days of my career. >> how do you trump that in 2015? uber? >> the most important thing we can do is keep doing what we are doing. we're the preferred choice for large ipos. i think we won eight of the last nine largest ipos. >> including technology which is key for you. >> yeah, we are the technology leader. this year we have 83% of the proceeds that technology companies have raised on public markets have done soo here. and if we keep working hard for customers i hope that continues. >> the lot of the candidates. what is your pitch as these comes docome s to you. >> first you get a great ipo day

characterized by a smooth opening. much like you saw for alibaba. similar today with lending club and it's that blend of humans and technology that we have here on the new york stock exchange. but the relationship really just starts on the ipo day. we offer a lot of facets to our service that really no other exchange in the world can offer. >> how does the pipeline look for next year? are we going to see as many or the same kind of pace? could there be even more next year? >> i've never been particularly great at prognostication. may be why i'm not a trader. but the pipeline does look very good. and ipos tend to be correlated with the economy overall and a low vix and increasing jobs and increasing stock market and low interest rates. all those are in place to have a good 2015 but i'm not into the prognostication and we'll just keep working hard and hope those factors continue to be the way they are right now. >> thanks for talking with us

today. tom farley is the president of the new york stock exchange. jon. >> i'll take it sarah. thanks for that. up next today's rally with all major indices up more than 1%. the dow up nearly 200 points. art cashin joins us when we come back.

welcome back to "squawk alley." one stock that is not participating in today's big rally is gopro. the stock is falling again today on an increase in short selling. a lock up expiration on september 23rd, where insiders can sell their stock. and a richer evaluation. citi also saying it is more cautious on industry competition in this industry. the stock currently down about 5% in today's trade and the stock is now down some 35% since a record high on october 7th. >> i'll watch that one. thanks dom. back to the markets. dow up 204. all up over 1%.

dow trading at levels not quite getting back to what we lost yesterday. art cashin joins us this morning at post nine. good to see you again. you said the seasonality was the worst of the month. sure feels that way anyway. >> but we're heading into the improving territory. aed the week goes on, things get better and next week the seasonality is strongly bullish. santa claus is coming. keep your ears open for the sleigh bells. >> you said brent at 64? >> yes. brent breaks below 64 i think it will put pressure back on markets. fears of contagion will pop up. it's taken us back to yesterday's opening level. we haven't gotten back to tuesday's close so there is going to be resistance in the next 50 to 70 points in the dow. >> stepping back from today's action. what does this market remind you of? what does it feel like over the

last 50, 60 years? where are you. we've had a lot of bulls start to get more cautious lately looking out into 2015. where do you think we are? >> i think we're still in reasonably good shape. the seasonals are good. and next year has several things going for it. the year before a presidential election. particularly in the second term of the sitting president. a strong upward bias. and years ending in a five have an amazing history of being up. so whether oh 05 or 15 or they all tend to have an upward boois. >> the mum bobo is working. >> the holiday quarter is the most important quarter if so many segments of the economy.

we're essentially getting a the middle class stimulus at the most important time. should investors will excited about how that flows through in january when we get the earnings of a lot of companies. >> it should flow through. there are signs it's not fully flowing through yet. retail sales were good this morning but we're not hearing knockout numbers and christmas sales quite yet. it would seem that the consumer has not transitioned into his tax cut. they are not in that mood yet. so we'll hope when the market hopefully perks up next week that will help. >> yethis keeps coming back us this, this notion that gas prices can drop. be wire trained not to believe that it can's going lo to last. >> absolutely. and strong belief some of this may be manipulated, going back to a meeting last year, where they suggested that if russia

would only back away from syria and a iran they could help them raise prices and it didn't go. and then when the amount of u.s. supply got to the point where it didn't take much to just push the oil price over, some people feel that the saulddies have been in there. they didn't want to do a big production increase because that -- they would have gotten blamed by everybody and oh pepe. this this was a great result. >> down days usually followed by a good days do you think that remains. >> it is. you have to be careful. it is perfect if you have two in a row. so we'll see. we have our other good friend. the hindenburg omen. but the viewers should remember we've never had a crash without a hindenburg omen but lots of

hindenburg omen without crashes. so it is not a trigger or a signal. >> art cashin. thanks for stopping by. a lot of christmas ties and they're all beautiful. the u.s. in rallying mode. european shares also rebounding from lows of the session. lackluster demand for cheap ecb loans strengthening the possibility ots it have further stimulus measures from the central bank. once again, greece, rough story. tumbling on all that political uncertainty. the prime ministersy says the country will hold snap elections in january if parliament fails to elect this month. down 20% in the last three sessions. >> this week we've been asking. you know, vote for the kick starter project you would fund. adel ear buds delivering

profession quality sound at the same time reducing hearing loss. and that is up against trunkster, smart luggage. vote now at cnbc.com/tech crowd. and tomorrow we'll reveal the winner. >> when we come back a lot more on this morning's rally. dow is up 211. back in a moment. don't go away. how do you beat the number one seed?

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waez try to undo some of the damage done yesterday. joining us larry glazers. managing partner with may flower investments and wond link securities. art, everybody's talking about how the high the biggest gain, biggest loss since october. just a reminder how tepid november was after that crazy october that we had. >> yeah it certainly is. it's interesting and i like some of the tweets you put out today. it was intriguing to see we haven't had four days down in a long stretch of time. i think what we're looking at here is yesterday really felt like that october 15th

capitulation sell off day. yesterday we had a mini capitulation day. where all ten sectors of the s&p 500 got hit. and that is not just energy related. and yield down to 2.1. >> i remember that morning like it was yesterday. >> it was. seems like just yesterday the sky was falling too. we're at a point in time where we're trying to look at juxtaposition of a stronger economy in the u.s. and that has manifested in ism's flirting with 60 on both side. better retail sales. certainly a tail wind for the consumer and higher levels of the employment and highest levels of consumer confidence in years. we're trying to balance with the global macro as it pertains to what's going on in the geopolitical hot spot bs but th certainly it is more about supply than demand and i think we overshot in a lot of o sectors. >> i remember silicon valley in the early 2000s, everybody was

shell shocked from the ddotcom . are we still shell shocked from the market crash of a few years back? could things get better from here given the energy prices being low and so many positive signals that we're seeing? >> great question. i was looking at the screen yesterday and it was amazing. when i looked at about 50 energy-related companies how really resembled financials from 2008. small cap energy companies trading less than $5, down 80%. so that sort of memory is bringing us back to a time that is even closer to our memory. but to the extent, some of the things that are happening in commodity prices are going to be a very significant positive. they are the tax cut that everybody is talking about.