departure of pimco, the outlook for the fed. it's going to be a great interview, i hope. >> it will be. >> do the best we can for the viewers. >> believe! believe. i can't wait. >> thank you. >> thank you. we'll be watching. thank you for watching "street signs." closing bell is next. welcome to "the closing bell." here at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. you can once again it's all about oil, the price of oil settling below $58 a barrel a couple of blocks from here and taking a toll on the stock market down more than 200 points. >> down at the low 239 and off the session lows and 1% slide and the dow down 182 points. s&p 500 also down .75% and

nasdaq lower, as well. bill, snapping seven straight weeks of gains and heading for the second worst week of the entire year talking about the dow and s&p. >> back to january for the dow. volatility the beginning of the year and end of the year. a coincidence? i think not. seeing the vix itself, the volatility index is up 76%. >> this week. >> this week. up another half a percent right now. back above that 20 level which often signals augs for the market here. maybe we could be topping out or bottoming out. we'll see. >> so-called fear index. oil is focal point. the close below 58. first time we have seen that since 2009. >> our closing bell exchange this friday, mega green with us, jason pride, kenny pulcari, ken mahoney and next to him is bob

pisani. and not next to him but in chicago is rick santelli. yes. when's next to you, rick? i don't know. kenny p, put the market in perspective for us. you guys on the floor you trade stocks on, you're watching oil trading a few blocks away here. aren't you? >> you know what? there's not -- everyone should understand there's not a sense of panic, not a sense of the oh my god this is the end at all. there's pressure on the market for you. oil is absolutely the story. the fed next week is going to be the story. europe is the story. all these kind of, you know, conflicting stoirl that is are going around the world just giving everyone an opportunity to jump on board now that, you know, the oil's really prompted it and then all the other stuff to pile on. it feels like the s&p wants to test a 50-day moving average and probably should. >> where is that? >> 50-day moving average on the s&p could be 1999. got to shake it out. right? shake it out in order to get rid of the weak links and then allow the market to once again begin

to build. >> meg green, you say volatility is great for you finding opportunity. where are you finding that now? >> well, first of all, we are getting an opportunity to pop back into some of the mlps that have been really hit. people are totally misunderstanding that. second of all, it's tax laws harvesting time. we haven't had a lot of time to harvest the tax losses so you take this time with volatility and really on the yay/boo scale. some people are terrified of it. >> wait. >> reposition our portfolios. you know? take some things off the table that are maybe a little high and put them in things needing to be bought again and rebalance. you tax harvest. and you're in good shape. it is our friend. >> mlps, that's interesting. you are not terrified right now to go there given -- >> mastered limited partnerships. >> getting sold off. >> but wait a minute. >> explain. >> they're not understanding

mlps. you don't necessarily want the index but in the mlps more about the toll booth than the price of oil and gas it's like going through the lincoln tunnel. you care what price car you're going through? mlps are beaten down. not reasonably. in a lot of cases because it's not about the price of oil and gas. we still need those pipelines so it's an opportunity. >> let me bring rick in here for a second because, you know, it's not just oil goung doing, it is the yield on the 10-year and just today minneapolis fed president lakoda say he says this low price of the oil makes the fed more dovish and less inclined to be raising rates any time soon. do you -- i know who i'm asking, do you agree that maybe that's why the 10-year is going where it's going this week? down 30-some basis points. >> how convenient. i'm in the frame of mind that i

don't think they'll raise rates any time soon. i let it go in one ear and out the other. i think there's a general uncertainty of the bright thinkers, called the federal reserve open market committee that is not sure of the foundation of some of these pumped up inflated financial asets due to liquidity and the crude story is like weather retailer having a crummy quarter. it is just the place everybody wants to hang out. and i will tell you this. you know, maybe what sums up best everybody's just in a nervous environment. last week the vix, and you said it. up 70-some percent. when's the 70-something percent? 12 last week. 20 today. when i look at that as an old options guy and basically option volatility, it's the straddle. it's still really low! that's why using percentages for low interest rates isn't a good idea. i don't think it expresses the truth. i think the chapter reminds me

of that month from march to april in 2000 when we lost 1,800 paints on the nasdaq. the world didn't end. listen. whether it's spreads and high yields or whether it's the nasdaq companies like flowers.come who have unbelievable valuations and no money, reality always hits. i wouldn't be afraid of it. i'm certainly glad it's happening and what i still consider a highly orderly environment considering every yield up there is still higher than the intraday low yields on october 15th. >> that's true. >> historical perspective is important. ken mahoney, before you came on, we were just talking about how the theme and the strategy, correct strategy, is buy the dip. is that what you're doing? to rick's point. >> the last couple of years we have had a kind of collective pavlov's dog sort to speak where the condition response. we see lower prices. we salivate like pavlov's dog

and buy prices rewarded and until that doesn't work anymore, you know, we're finding investors buying every dip. challenges in 2015 we have learned this year coming in and that's the s&p getting slashed in earnings because of the oil crisis that we're having so but until we don't -- until we're burned by buy the dip, that continues to work for some time. >> jason, meg was talking about repositioning to take advantage of opportunities to present themselves here. i think you agree with that, don't you, right now? where do you see opportunities cropping up as a result of what's happening the last few weeks here? >> you know, we agree with that broadly because, look, valuations are coming back down in. investors need to realize that truthfully this year valuations propped up on the whole for a lot of assets. they weren't extremely expensive but when treasuries are expensive, when equities are a little bit over the historical average and when you still have an economy inching along, it's

very easy for these disappointments to come back. in terms of repositioning, we think you have to be very selective. we're favoring very steady eddie high quality stable equities in the marketplace and nibbles abroad, as well. there's global company that is are really good companies. being thrown out with the bathwater here. >> where are you going? are you going -- >> maximum exposure. >> in europe or asia? where are you nibbling? >> you know, anywhere that you get a globally exposed company that's thrown out just because of this economic weakness and concern of oil. truthfully, getting interesting in some energy makes makes sense in here. valuations are off 25% for the energy etf by itself. i don't think things are 25% different than they were just a few months ago so somewhere in here there are opportunities. i think it is stock specific. >> hey, bob, you have been watching it whole week.

what can you tell us about what you have learned between the relationship between oil and the stock market. >> oil is down 40%. the s&p 500 is down 2% this month. oil down 40%. s&p down 2%. what is wrong with that picture? tells me the overall stock market not falling apart with energy down double digits. the vix is over 20 today. very unusual for the cash to be above the options, the future prices and this tells you a short-term panic going on. gee, i have gains on the year. i have to buy protection. the downside is bigger than the upside in the 12 trading days left. that's what we have here. a short-term panic going on. stock market's holding up very well. >> you see -- hang on a second. kenny, we'll bring everybody back after the break. can you stick around? >> yeah, yeah. i'm here. >> okay. we'll come back. we'll bring everybody back here and see what's going on here. >> we have about 40 minutes to

go in the session. the weak of the day and red arrows. dow down almost 200 as we speak. 196. s&p 500 is down about 16. naz do nasdaq down 20. we are set for a weak lower in eight weeks. what you should be doing with your money in volatile times like these. also ahead on this friday, oil below $60 a barrel. just how low from here? special report from the nymex on what the pros are thinking about right now and we want to know if you see oil going lower from here or higher. when's the next stop? is it 50 or below or 70 bucks or above? >> talking about 40s. >> yes. i have heard that. our live unscientific poll is now open. go to cnbc.com/vote and cast your vote.

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welcome back. show you how the markets are doing here if you're just

joining us. capping off what will be a tough week. second worst week of the year for the major averages in the stock market. the worst week was in january when we started off on a down note if we all remember. >> we had -- looking at the worst day for the s&p since november. >> down 208. industrial average. s&p's down 18-plus points and nasdaq down 25. what's positive, you ask? is anything positive? yes! >> we found a group. >> of the ten s&p sectors, consumer discretionaries are up today. >> in a down market. let's bring the panel back in. meg green, jason pride kenny pulcar ir, ken mahoney, bob pisani and rick santelli. ken mahoney, let's not forget amid all the doom and gloom we got a good consumer confidence read number above 90 and better than economists were looking for

today. retail sales number better than expected and prices at the pump continue to down. is this where you look for value in the storm? >> this is the correlation. people going to the gas pump and pumps not $4 a gallon but two something and kind of a gift and as if the consumers going the mailbox and finding a check. very stimulative. you can corelate the prices and consumers feeling pretty good this holiday season. >> retailers have made a comeback and consumer discretionary is up today. look what's not doing well, not talking energy, consumer -- rather, material names so your duponts, freeport, dow chemicals are weak. global industrials are week. this is the global slowdown story that existed sort of in parallel with the weak oil story and the reason the markets are having trouble an the consumer doing well.

>> kenny p, what are you looking at for opportunity? are you ready to step in here? >> i think there are huge opportunities and moves create dislocation and names that should not be. it's very stock specific and i have to be honest, i think energy is a very, very interesting play. whether it's now, early next year. at some point, look at some of these names are up 30%, 40%. >> worst performing stock in the dow now for the year is chevron. >> okay. chevron. >> and then ibm. >> going out of business? is this an opportunity? if you're a long-term asset manager, energy's the place to pick -- >> but, kenny, that's a bold move as someone said it's like catching a falling knife. >> so what you have to be prepared, no one says all in on one day and feed yourself in and in case there's more downside and not buying it all today. you feed it in but some point i

mean i think these are huge opportunities. >> meg, i mean, you mentioned the master limited partnerships. you want tax loss selling and into the new year where do you want to put some new money to work? >> you know, high yield corporates are smashed if you haven't taken a look and that's oil relation to it. >> right. >> earlier in the year we came out of that and into munis. up 17% year to date. they're up 8% and getting places where you get yield. now you had the corporate that is are negative this year. why not stick some money into the high-yield corporates aenl get a 6%, 7% yield waiting for everything to come back. it is not an all or nothing. i agree with kenny. you have to dollar cost average in. take your places. i mean, i'm a buyer of tesla at this point. >> yeah. >> that's what generally works. >> buy low, sell high. >> wait, wait. slow down. i have to write that down. go ahead. >> we haven't heard that before. >> it's a new idea. >> jason, given the fact that

bob pisano mentioned a global growth slow down trade in effect and see's what's happening with the price of oil, when's that doing to s&p earnings estimates next year? do they come down because of energy? >> you know, they may come down a little bit because of energy but i think we have to -- i suspect this global both story is overlayed a little bit. the numbers broadly, we see gyrations here and there. but the numbers broadly still point to a global economic expansion and let's look at it. when you have the central banks involved the way they are. they're actually trying to push it the opposite direction. you've got the u.s. central bank moving towards more tighteninging basically pushing interest rates up and global central banks putting on more easing trying to balance out this ship. not trying to pushl it the other direction. >> good point. >> i think counterbalancing forces in play the next year. >> think of the currency markets. >> does a lot to the market. >> thank you for mentioning

that, bill. with that, to rick. people are worried about china here and blaming the chinese growth on demand but overnight the chinese stock market went up on the weak factory numbers. >> it's amazing what 65 billion will buy for you. >> rick, what did you say? >> 65 billion, they did add stimulus and does matter but in the end start looking at these growth numbers. there's many out there i think by 2017, you might be in the low 6% on chinese growth and when you think back to when they were at 10% and 11%, wasn't that many years ago. >> right. >> i'm sorry. i don't know who makes up that difference. i'm interested to see about abe and the elections on sunday because if they look at this as, you know, lock and load, get out a couple more bazookas and makes more volatility. i don't know if they pick up ground. on university of michigan, the reason best level of early '07 is the reason trying to poke holes in and that's lower gas

prices. >> right. >> there's a way to catch a falling knife. catch it like that. there's many energy companies that are going to be buying these leveraged small operations. i see many that have probably picked up over the years. the energy story's not over. it just went a little too fast, fueled by too much liquidity, the positives of that story are far from over. >> right. >> oh yeah. >> what were you going to say, kenny? >> best way to play the market is a hybrid strategy. two thirds to three quarters of the portfolio buy and hold and a quarter to a third of the portfolio be more nimble. not like day trading but looking back at the dip this is year, january, april, october and we think this week, presents itself with kind of buy the dip, you know, attitude and combination of buy and hold and active and be prepared to buy the dips and sell the rip. >> traders are coming to me on the floor and not including kenny pulcari and a seasonality

that's strong seasonality for this market in december and they're convinced maybe next week is better than this week. we have a fed meeting next week, as well. >> that's true a lot of old saws and chestnuts didn't work very well the first six months of the year, you know, the sell in may go away didn't work and maybe december tradition won't work that well either. i think what's interesting and talk about buying on the bottoms is to take a look at oil has. look at the commentary of last year of opec and the international energy associat n association. nobody talked about $50 oil but $100 to $80 oil. they have been wrong getting the demand side a little bit wrong. dramatically wrong. they didn't project demand down like this. maybe play it on the opposite side. i think -- i agree with everybody about energy. i think some of this selloff is really overdone and that's the way to start looking at 2015. >> right. kenny, opec is a big talking

point with the price slide that we have seen in oil. how much pain do you think they're willing to endure as they try to defend market share against u.s. shale producers and why so many people are blaming this oil price drop on opec? >> i hear you. saudis are in the most control, right? they're -- >> you're right. >> lowest cost. it depends i suppose on how far to pushl it. look. they want to put some, inflict some pain, certainly, on some of the u.s. shale producers because we are now very real competitor and they see it as a threat and a little bit of pain on us is not for them a big deal. so if they want to keep pushing more, that's what they're going to do and some point then it becomes uneconomical for the shale producers and supply starts to dry up. prices stabilize. >> saudis are one of the few to let the price go down. kenny p, what are you expecting in the last hour? what's to key to watch? >> watch as the market kind

of -- i think sell off into the bell and has to test the 200 day, today or tomorrow, and that's where it finds some support. >> watching 1999. >> tomorrow is saturday. >> watch it tomorrow, too. >> he'll watch it -- >> i mean monday, monday. you know what i meant. >> we know. >> that's how he rolls. thank you, everybody v. a great weekend. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> we are heading toward the close with about 35 minutes left in the session. down 200-plus points on the industrial average and we are going to keep an eye on that s&p as kenny was talking about, 1999. 200-day moving average. 17 points above it. much more on this punishing week on wall street. what you need to be doing with your money if you're in the energy stocks, if you're in some of the other stocks right now. the dow down 200 points. more on what to expect in the week ahead. also, we want the know how low you think oil can go from here or higher? are we bottoming here? we want to know if you think it's hitting $50 or below or $70 or above.

so if it lower or higher from here? cast your blalt in the live poll at cnbc.com/vote. we're coming back after this.

triple digit decline on the dow. the low of the day was 229. we are moving back lower again. almost a full 1% move lower for the s&p 500. nasdaq faringing the best of the

bunch down about .6%. at the center of the action, bill, crude oil tanking again today. jackie deangelis is covering the selloff. the close below 58. you're talking to everyone there. what kind of levels are they talking about how low to go? >> you're exactly right. intense selling pressure at the close today and closed at 57.81. down a double digit decline for oil this week. down 12%. we have not seen that in 3 1/2 years. second time that we have seen it in 3 1/2 years. laiders are saying into the weekend they did not want to be holding the bag here even if they had an intraday long position and didn't want to hold it into the weekend and they certainly don't want to be trying to call a bottom on isle right now. meantime, good news for consumers, gas prices are down. aaa saying $2.60. one oil analyst saying we could see another five-cent decline by

monday. and of course, this is because we have seen our gasoline declining 40% year to date. we have smart viewers tweeting me asking me about production for next year. we have got record production over 9 million barrels a day. very close to saudi arabia doing. if we see these prices go lower and stay low, we are definitely going to see those production volumes decline. rig counts are down. also, a lot of people asking about alternative energy and analysts are telling me if crude oil prices stay this low, alternatives could get hit. a lot of different angles to think about in this energy game right now. back to you. >> all right. thanks very much, jackie. >> thank you. >> 2 at no time 29 the price of gas in cincinnati, ohio. little less than the national average. >> in california $2.84 right now. what does that tell you? >> we'll continue to talk about this major move with oil prices crushed again today and stocks down with them. where do you think oil goes

next? go to cnbc.com/vote right now aenl let us know what you think. our live poll is open with the results at the bottom screen and a split one. >> it is. with us now is chad brownstein. i mean, do you sense we're near a bottom or there are some who say by summertime we could see $40. what do you think? >> cascading consequences at the moment. we're having a global margin call on what's occurring. we hit 75 because of opec and i believe we've gapped down because the clos and managers are forced to sell with all the price pressure. >> clo? >> collateralized loan officer. there's an automatic sale. with $550 billion raised in the debt markets for energy companies, we're seeing a lot of

pressure on those businesses that have automatic sales pushing the price down further, creating a global selloff and with 18 times leverage in the market, for every barrel produced, that's a number that has reached a multiple of 1997 which was 3x and getting a lot of unnatural sale right now. i think we can hit the mid-40s but i clearly believe the stabilize number is closer to 70s longer term. >> beyond the levels, chad, everybody's talking about why we are seeing this move. supply is a major reason. but then today we saw the international energy agency cut demand for the first fourth time in five months. is this more of a demand problem than a lot of folks were thinking of? that's lower demand on weaker economies and also more supply? >> i do not believe so. i think we are actually at a technical level here pushed by the forced selling in the global markets. you have limited amounts of downside from 93 million barrels to let's say 91 million barrels. we are not talking about a

massive decline in the amount of resource that wants to be used in the market. certainly there's a great ben foit the consumer. $100 billion tax transfer here and the energy companies in the united states are not out of business. the problem they're going to have is much more so what opec created and that's the large offshore drillers who pay $50 a search barrel as compared to onshore barrels at 15 to face a much stronger pressure and head wind than the actual shale drillers in the united states f. you're a good shale driller in a good spot in the united states, you're fine right where we're at right now. >> that's -- >> long term, we are in kind of a black friday moment here. >> it's interesting you bring that up because i was going to ask you, you know, the thought was when opec did not end up cutting production on thanksgiving the thought was that they were sending a signal to the shale producers here in the u.s., you are on your own, guys. we'll let it go down to where it

hurts you guys and maybe put you out of business. you seem to be suggesting this's not going to happen. >> i think the secondary and tertiary shale players of the united states get hurt but i think the real victims here, not being talked about, are the large drillers who have got the deep offshore. when it costs $50 a barrel to produce 1 they can't do that forever. that's a story no one's talking about. it is the much larger player that is are going to have the much longer term effects with regard to their production. i think the good shale players in the united states will be able to survive. certainly tertiary and secondary markets will get hurt. you will see oil services getting hurt but the story needs to be much more about the technical aspect of the forced selling and the global retrade that's happening when you have a margin call because of the technical levels and prices of the debt associated with the oil companies. >> the only thing to add, chad, beyond the u.s. impact which

we're all focused on obviously with the fact we're a big consumer economy and the global impact. perhaps you have to consider the global growth slow down and the fact of mexico, canada, norway, nigeria, all the currencies are crushed and these are economies very much tied to oil. russia, also. >> no question about it. mexico today, in fact, the government put out the first rfp in the new form of government in an open system for oil and gas and that was for not deepwater drilling but that's a very big indicator where those countries are going to be because if we don't see much action in the shallow drilling, offshore and mexico first time open and much anticipated i think you are actually right. we'll see a bigger slow down globally but that's a great indicator for us to watch closely. >> all right. chad, good to see you. closing the poll right now. there it is. >> one way. >> unscientific poll, those that

chose to vote, 68% see lower prices are here. i'll interested to see. we'll talk about it later. the fed desperate for inflation of 2% and expectations rising and not the case if the exec face for one of the key components of inflation to be going lower. >> we had a negative ppi this morning. we'll talk about this. no inflation yet. we have a little less than half an hour to go before the closing bell. we're still seeing triple digits on the dow here down more than 200 points. 237. took a lower leg. >> this is not the day for art cashin to take a day off. >> art. dow down almost 240. s&p 500 now down more than a full percent. looking at the lows of the day as we look to close out when's a down week on wall street. second worst of 2014.

>> our special coverage of the selloff will continue in a moment and the next guest makes the case for u.s. consumers in the new year. >> he says they've hardly looked better in the entirety and current economic expansion. he'll back up the thesis and how to play it. do not touch that remote. we are looking at the dow down 240 points. copd? it can feel like this. copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva is a once-daily inhaled... ...copd maintenance treatment... ...that helps open my airways for a full 24 hours. you know, spiriva helps me breathe easier. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace rescue inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva. discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells,... you can get hives, vision changes or eye pain,

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kenny just said to us he would imagine we would see a selloff into the close and that's what we're getting. low for the session down 256 points on the dow. the s&p is down 24. we're at 2010 there and kenny's watching that one very carefully as all traders do. 200-day moving at 1999. ten points from that. >> and really is about oil. oil closing below $58. wti, crude. not seen that since 2009. rbc capital markets out with the 2015 outlook today on the economy. with us for an exclusive look is tom porcelli. good to see you. >> are you quickly revising it with all that's going on with oil an things? >> i have to say we have a lot

of this oil improvement baked in and we expect it to be addstive and thinking of oil today and stayed steady and more to be more clear pump prices and stayed steady today, over the balance of the first half of the year that will be additive from a consumption perspective and what we have baked in. the non-energy consumption part of it adding half a percentage point. >> we were in the break talking about the impact of inflation and negative read on ppi, wholesale inflation. when's that going to mean? are we going to be below the fed's trend through 2015? >> so this is a great discussion point and deserves much more time than we can allot to it. >> you don't want to go into the dynamics of disinflation and inflation on tv? >> but i think this is an important point. we actually have a headline inflation continuing to trend lower and we think sub 1% before the middle of the year and that's just the point where we think the fed starts the hiking process and that's very important to keep in mind is

just look at ex-energy cpi. stripping out the energy and right now 2% pace. it's been stunningly consistent at a 2% pace and here's another question to ask yourself. what was non-energy cpi running at before the last two hiking cycles? 2%. the deflation story will gain momentum particularly for headline below 1% and keep in mind if you look at inflation from a broader perspective, you are seeing acceleration and most other components of inflation. >> you said to begin with how the lower oil price additive to the economy. there are people worried because we almost more of a major producer of oil and the impact it has on ancillary industries in this country. net-net still a positive, not a negative? >> without a doubt. in fact, let's distill an idea that i think too many people are

latching on to. and again, don't listen to the crazy economists. right? do this yourself. if you look at cap x energy, so the spending on energy -- >> drilling and equipment needed. >> exactly. look at that as a percent of total cap x, it's 2.5%. 2.5%. most people are blown away thinking it's 25% or 30%. here's another thing to think about. thinking about the energy jobs, direct energy jobs, you know, again, people are fascinated by this. they have since 2008 direct energy jobs have been growing at a 780 jobs per month clip compared to an economy growing at 255,000 jobs per month. 780 jobs is a drop in the bucket so it's not nearly as people appreciate. >> and other stat is still 70% consumption economy. we're also still an energy importer. people forget. >> yep.

no. that's exactly right. it is not nearly as big of a deal from a negative side of the story perspective. it's more more additive. >> how do you see the selloff then? why isn't the s&p 500 rallying? >> down almost 300 points by the way. >> i'll leave it to the smarter strategists. i can't explain daily wriggles but if we're right it's an economic backdrop to advance this year and sort of a similar advance for next year, and also true that the equity -- that the equity market takes the cues in part from the economic backdrop you should see the equity market advance for a couple of years. >> good to see you. thank you. have a good holiday, new year. and yes, we are moving lower. down 273 right now. industrial average was down 280 a moment ago and keeping an eye on that s&p now down 26.5 at 2009. >> 1.3%. still plenty of red on the screens on that s&p heat map as the markets tick down to the

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we are looking at a selloff picking up steam. >> kenny said it would be like this. right? >> into the end of the bell. people want to take off long positions into the weekend after what was a down, brutal week on wall street with the dow down more than 270. >> one stock in the dow positive, walmart. >> walmart? >> look at that. >> consumer discretionary. >> ibm is worst performer at the moment. itemized earlier chevron is worst in the dow for the year. >> now all major s&p 500 groups in negative group. >> what a day, mary thompson. tracking the movers for us, mary. >> what a day, what a week. look at the movers and shakers beginning with energy stocks and oil prices hit the lowest level since may of 2009. exxon, chevron downside today. sherwin-williams with forecast

below street estimates. off $6.18, 2.4% and nu skin losing ground. all starting to come out now. the direct sellers of skin care and nutritional products trading off 2.6%. lastly, two ipos. avolon holdings off 8.5% and hortonworks trading higher on the ipo price up over 52%. it helps companies manage data. we are going to end with lululemon rallying after posting third quarter results, surpassed street expectations. deutsche banc raised the price target and the stock is up $1.75. back do you. >> all right. mary, thanks for running through and winners as mary noted. an ipo up more than 50% today. >> not an ideal day but it works

out. >> not a ideal day here. the dow jones industrial average approaching down 300. 290 into the close here. s&p 500 down almost 1.5% and the nasdaq down now a full percent. >> as we have been pointing out, the dow on course for the worst week since january. if this continues, the next few minutes, that will be the case. we'll find out how the pros protect themselves. and be sure to catch bill gross on "street signs" monday especially after this kind of week on wall street. this is the first time speaking in a live television interview since leaving pimco and joining janus and then the 10-year note yield at 10.08% last friday we were at 2.3%. >> heading for the hills. we are back in a moment. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional...

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agent 8:30 left here and the dow threatening to be down 300 points. >> 297. >> the s&p down 30 points. putting us at 2005. so about five or six points from the 200-day moving average. >> this is a bad week, a weekly loss and new numbers changing

fast here and worst week since may 2012. the dow november 2011 for perspective there for you it. >> joining us is david darst and larry mcdonald. i have to hand it to you. you were sounding the alarm early on oil going lower about the high yielding bonds that could be in trouble and the bank that is made those loans to the energy sector and what that could do. you know, in part, that's exacerbating this decline here, don't you think? >> it is. we look at a bond today, goodrich petroleum at 105, 106. hit 53 today. 53 cents on the dollar from 105. these banks, you want to look at the exposure. >> warranted or not. >> yeah. >> there's the fear factor going on, right? >> what you want to track now is what we call credit spread contagion. follow the cds.

if the cds on the majors underperforms in a major way we are going lower and a sign it's leaking over to the financials. >> we are seeing risk aversion at work. the yen is strong right now. having the best week in over a year. treasuries are strong. 10-year yield flirting with 2%. again, clearly a reach for safety. >> you know, sara, the greek stock market fell 20% this week. >> we mentioned this. >> people are bailing out. three things to watch for all viewers, cog, china, oil and greece. china having an election soon. do they want to leave the euro? that's the worry there. japan with a very important election, as you know, sunday. we want prime minister abe to get a mandate to continue. >> he should. right? >> leon cooperman, an old friend of mine used to say it is not good when the market gets good

news and did have this week, the consumer sentiment from michigan, off the charts. >> yep. >> retail sales, way up to the upside. .7%. don't forget the jobs a week ago. 320,000 jobs. >> look at the market. >> it's a basic selloff is a healthy thing and you can start to look for energy. follow steve schwartzman. he said this morning buy good energy. >> he said that at the conference. >> stay right there. the dow down 300 points. the s&p flirting with the 2000 level here. we come back with the closing countdown in a moment. honey, we need to talk about robot butler. look, i love the way he controls the lights and unlocks the door when i forget my keys... it's just that... i feel like he's always watching us. yes, that is why we should use wink. ...look, it can monitor and manage our house but it won't start to develop human emotions.

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have your entire house within reach, even when your devices aren't. introducing relay by wink it's like a robot butler, but not as awkward. okay. a couple of minutes left. the worst week now going back to may of 2012 for the dow. we started the week flirting with 18,000. seems like ages ago. it's been mostly down for the whole week. for the week now, decline of about 3.5% for the dow jones industrial average. s&p as kenny pointed out, watching this essentially 2000 level. 200-day moving average at 1999. we are about there or a moment ago. 2005 now for the week. a decline of 3.3% for the s&p. price of oil, same thing. i mean, this is a braettaking decline. have you been to the gas station in you know the impact having

down 3.6% just today on wti crude. for the week we're down 12%. so just in one week the price of oil has had its own personal correction as we sit now at $57.72. vix skyrocketing up 82%. almost doubled this week. 82% gain for the vix. up to 21 -- although i will say, you know, rick santelli made the point and kenny pulcari. that's not that big of a move. we are not talking about panic move but that's a big move for the volatility index. >> william shakespeare said sometimes the brightest day has a cloud. this is a bright year, a bright and continued a strong expansion of the united states. this is a time to reposition, look at the portfolio. what would you look to? >> add to some health care,

selectively in energy. you want to basically maybe upgrade the defensive stocks in the consumer area, bill. >> okay. what are you looking at? consumer discretionary positive earlier on. >> that helps. >> think of the oil stocks. they're like the tech stocks in 199. they're on the other side of the mountain and you can get brilliant capitulation bounces and much sold and 10%, 15% bounces in a bear market and i think that's what you get in the oil names over the next couple of names. another thing to watch real quickly, when the market goes into back wardation in the vix future and then it's more expensive and the market's bottom. we're getting close to that point. >> we had the buy the dippers come back. that's the hallmark of the market this year but not yet. >> happy hanukkah on tuesday,

bill, everybody. >> thank you. we're finishing with a decline of about 3.3% on that and s&p very close to 2000. stick around. hour number two now of "closing bell" with sara eizen. welcome to "the closing bell." bill will be rejoining news a moment. here's how we are finishing. what turned out to be a brutal day with more selling into the closing bell on wall street. the dow closing down a little over 300 points. all day it was down about 200. and then went earlier below that. now we are at the very lows of the session. closing down 305. s&p 500 down 1.6% and the nasdaq down 1%.

at these levels, this would make it the worst week for the s&p 500 since may 2012. the worst week for the dow jones industrial average, listen to this. november 2011. >> wow. >> a down week on wall street. joining us to discuss today's panel, steven wood, kevin o'leary and sharon epperson and with us for more market action, ben wallace and tim seymour. steve, we were trying to discuss whether this selloff and everything that went along with it, rush into treasuries, japanese yen, out of oil, is it panic selling or is it a healthy correction for the stock snarkt. >> i think it's sentiment driven. that could be panic selling. the fundamentals have not changed dramatically and you have a market where you look at the russell 1000 still up over 11%. russell 2000 still positive. >> they had their correction earlier this year. >> they did. when we're bouncing off of

all-time highs so i think a little bit of a correction and volatility is not that all unexpected. >> ben, the doorbuster sale on wall street continues here on wall street. what next? i mean, we've got a fed meeting next week. seasonally we usually are strong going into the year. this is showing no signs of that though. >> i hope you went home long because i think you will be happy on monday. this is a doorbuster sale. this is a flight to out of markets. markets hatd uncertainty and went into u.s. treasuries today. willing to accept 2% yield and turn down 10%, 11% yield on very healthy stocks particularly in the energy sector. what you saw today is panicked selling, if you will, particularly accelerating through the key levels. 2016 on the s&p. so as we broke through that, we caught, picked up the momentum. so i'm not afraid of it. corrections are healthy and they're buying opportunities for

long-term investors. >> kevin, are you worried about the dip in oil? happening too far too fast closing wti below $58 a barrel. >> he doesn't look worried. >> no. as an investor, this is a third pass through the cycle of oil and i have learned that oil's a commodity and when it decides to correct, it doesn't touch the sides on the way down. no yield to support it. much lower than the lowest estimate everybody's talking about. that's the nature of a commodity correction and then stabilize. i look at this and say to myself, oh my goodness, what a fantastic side of the s&p not tied to transportation and coming into q-3 and 4 of next year i want to be long equities. it's going to be a great outcome next year. i hope oil goes to 30 bucks. bringen tomorrow.

i don't care. >> i can't wait for a $1 handle on gas. tim, are you ready to go long at this point? >> i don't think you need to go long on monday. if you went into the weekend long, it's painful but, you know, listening to kevin i agree with a lot of that. certainly, i have lived through a couple commodity cycles, as well. these are buying opportunities but look at the chart of s&p of oil moving it's the s&p where it is pulled back today but i think that may be a bigger move. looking at the yen, we have also the strongest week in 16 months and teliling me that this is no a case of a flight to quality. this feels a little different and year end and a lot of hedge funds and guys i know and in the industry having dreadful years and a lot of guys going out of business. liquidity is down. gappy price action and no reason to think it's better next week but i think things are way

oversold here and oil is interesting. >> tim makes a good point and not just for hedge funds but retail investor and many people have a week or so working, accountant may have a week or so fully engaged and make sure they take advantage of any tax loss selling they can do and if they have losers, they're selling them now. this can it's a time for particularly retailer investors to panic. as everyone said, this is a normal correction that we have seen that we would expect to see after such a strong year for overall the s&p 500. >> sounds like the panel is in agreement that nothing fundamentally changed for the outlook for the u.s. economy and i would point to earnings growth. that's what powers the stock market. consensus earnings growth is 8.4%. exclude energy, it's above 11% s. that enough to take the stock market then to new highs once ge get through the correction or whatever this is dealing with? >> i think so. looking at the market in the united states, it is not cheap. the valuations we see right now, not a friend. but they don't look, you know,

exorbitant either. we're advising people take a global perspective. earnings in the united states and the economic performance will continue relatively to do well so we think that this could be a good market in the united states going into 2015. supported by earnings and also you're talking earlier about the feed through effects of energy prices dropping like this. this is going to squash anything that tax cuts could have done in washington, d.c. this is global tax cut. it's going to be in europe, japan and the united states. so as we go next year, it could be very stimulative. >> what will the fed talk about? ben willis, could this spoil your rally next week if the fed is a little more bullish on the economy and raising rater sooner rather than late? >> we have seen pricing in the change of the fed for the continuing -- for the unperiod -- >> considerable time. >> thank you. >> there you go.

>> taking those words out. think i think that's what's going on once again changing the markets that they have manipulated for seven years. that game changing and what we're watching right now. >> kevin, your thoughts on the fed on the impact on the economy? you said oil is going to be stimulative. do you not worry seeing too low inflation numbers? >> no. >> we're not close to the inflation target. >> we should get a cue of gold. it doesn't pay any yield. i keep a 5% waiting in the po portfol portfolios. starting to sniff a little bit of wage inflation perhaps. i'm so optimistic about what low input energy costs can do to an economy and give it 6 or 9 months that the upside is immense. i'm talking melt-up on equities. >> if we see wage growth? >> it's very possible to happen. i'm looking for a fed hike in june. just because oil goes to 30 bucks, went from 79 to 9 and

wonderful for our economy and we have to get around the idea only energy and we should be worried about. >> thee things the fed put on the table, they want to see unemployment rate go down even more. >> yes. low energy gives you that. >> okay. they want the inflation expectations higher. energy's not going to do that. >> oh, only 1% of our working economy is mining oil in the shale or mining or drilling. it is a tiny fraction of the employed people in america. they want to tell you. most of the employees are abroad. this is not a sector anything to do with unemployment. even if it goes to zero. and that's not going to happen. >> tim, what r you buying anything? >> if you're going to be buying energy at this point, i think the integrated names look to be the most interesting. not too far on a limb, 20-year lows of price to book. these companies made a signal to

cut back on cap x and return cash to investors and this is where if you're going to run into the energy market you play. the other place you have to look is you have to look at the countries that are most exposed to lower oil price environment and i think this is very good for japan. i think if we look at the global economy, places with an up uplift, japan is most notable. >> watching the election. bill's laughing at me. thank you for mentioning the yen, tim. sharon, when's happening in treasuries? 30-year bond yield right now is at 2.73. are retail investors holding on to the treasury portfolio? wall street predicted to sell off, 30-year treasury note is up almost 30%. >> right. i don't think they're selling and i think what they're doing, a lot of particularly retirees, they don't have a choice. they're staying there regardless of what has been said. they're not going to sell that because they want the steady

income that they're going to be able to get. >> all right. thank you all. thank you. but stick around. don't go anywhere. except for you, tim seymour. >> i will be here. >> ben willis, thank you. dream about higher prices come monday. the dramatic collapse in oil prices taking the toll on stocks, oil stocks, stocks overall. are investors overreacting? low oil prices good for the market and the economy? we want the know what you think. i mean -- >> that's the topic du jo ur. is it good or bad for the economy? go to cnbc.com/vote. weigh in with your thoughts and we'll be talking about it when we come back. stay tuned.

another day, another sea of red on wall street. for the whole week, really. >> wasn't just today. brutal day for the bulls overall. collapse in oil prices a major factor in what turned out to be a pretty big selloff for the stock market but do you think low oil prices are good for the economy? i mean, good for consumers. what about the production side

of the equation? so that's the question we really want to think about here going forward. is the lower price of oil good for the economy or not? go to cnbc.com/vote and ask your vote on that and talk about it. >> we have heard this week of goldman sachs and blackrock and jack lew that it is good for our economy. >> sure. >> den in it gartman and greg ett. dennis, i spoke to you this time last year. you said oil had a lot more room to go down further. what do you say now? >> i still say, sara, further to go down. if you go back and take a look at what crude oil has done, even going back into the 19th century, a time of crude at $3.85 or so. fell all the way to a dime. in 1860, up to about $13. fell down to a dime. several years ago right at the turn of our century we were at

$130. fell to $10. crude oil has this terrible hysterical tendency of falling 75%, 80%, 90% in value. can it do gown further? absolutely. crude wants to go lower. >> do you have a level you're looking at? >> i have learned long ago i can make fool of myself far too easy getting the trend wrong. the trend is still down. let's just say write this down. continuing to fall until it stops and continue to fall until the term structure turns positive. and the term structure has no intention of turning positive at this point. >> all right. you'll know it when you see it. the big debate has been, good for bad for the economy. a lot of people wringing their hands about this decline here. where do you stand on this issue? >> bell, kind of a very asymmetric picture.

university of michigan sentiment numbers today. yesterday's retail sales. good for the united states. good for europe and japan. all net oil importers and can be extremely bad. what are those? number one, we have been talking about the negative impact of producers. that's by the way not just corporations but countries. not just russia and venezuela. but places like australia, canada, norway which have been leveraged. i don't know if how well they ride this out. but also here in the united states, you're worrying -- i think you need to worry about how it's worsening the low inflation environment and making it hard for central banks everywhere to get traction on the economy. it's not such a big deal for the u.s. because we are doing relatively well but in europe and japan, it complicates life for those central banks. >> kevin, i bet this is a net-net positive? >> i look at it on a binary basis, if i was the czar of jobs

if there was a position like that, choose between 100 and $35, which one would i want? in my mind, there's no question. there's some negatives to the energy sector, 18% of the s&p, but if i could lock down low input costs for everybody, i would create jobs in america with $35 oil and take that decision first. so i'm going to err on the side of the risk of $35 a barrel and hope the thesis is right and has been consistently after many, many cycles. low energy is a wonderful thing for america. period. >> absolutely. >> can i jump in here for a second. i'm with that. that's a story of 1986, 1998 with the big discontinuous drops in oil. we had big consumption booms as a result. but remember, those were circumstances when you had the very positive effect of driving inflation down and allowing the federal reserve to run with easier monetary policy than it otherwise would have. the fed at zero so it's not

getting one of the traditional big benefits of that drop in oil. i'm not saying this turns it into a net negative but a more complicated picture and circumstances why it could be quite negative. entrenching inflation at too low a level for many years to come. >> i think when's worrying and, sharon, maybe you can address this. agree we're consumption economy and helps the economy that we have lower oil and gas prices but what does it say, the drop in oil of demand. maybe it is not just a supply issue and some deflationary concerns. >> i think that's true globally and definitely here in the u.s. we are seeing the demand picture in the winter low for oil and gasoline but the efficiency standards we have in this country, we are not going to dial thaez back and become less fuel efficient and a trend to continue and that means that we continue to see lower demand and therefore that continues to put pressure on oil and gasoline

prices and while it is just a small segment of the overall s&p 500, the energy sector is affected. enterprise had news about the pipeline from bakken to cushing. >> falling by the wayside. >> exactly. cap x and spending plans we are worried about. what do you say, dennis, on that note perhaps the pretty steep slide in oil over a short period of time indicates something is not right with demand and perhaps china where the official numbers have been questioned brve? >> we always question all the numbers of china but demand is lower for an interesting reason, because we are so much more efficient than we ever used to be. we get so much more gdp per barrel of crude oil now than in the past. every one of our automobiles gets better gas mileage than the past and heat the houses with less fuel than we did in the past. demand is lower becoming more

efficient. that's a very good thing. i'm with kevin on this. all things being equal, give me a choice of $100 a barrel of crude, $35 a barrel of crude and create jobs? with lower priced energy. that's a very good thing in the long run but the psychology right now is such everybody's excited or depressed because crude is collapsing and just getting baby and bath water being tossed out at one time and will end. >> let me ask you something, dennis. >> very quickly. let me point this out, greg. the unscientific poll of view earls to vote on, 70% say it's a good thing to see the lower oil prices for the economy than 30% say it's a bad thing. i wonder what their reasoning is on that, greg. >> again, it is interesting. 70% a good thing and 30% a bad thing. don't get me wrong. classic economist here trying to have it on both hands. i'm just saying -- >> all economists are am by deposition tri you.

>> there are aspects to the drop today that are interesting. but i have a question for dennis. as you know, it is not just the oil and energy commodity complex in pressure and raises a question of something beneath the surface in global growth more than a supply side story here. i admit there's nothing in the indicators to tell me that the world is rolling over and raises a question. >> have you seen iron ore prices lately? >> yeah. down sharply. very quickly. >> yeah. down and copper prices are down. grain prices are down from the highs and rallied back a bit. cotton's down from $2 to 60 cents. greg's got a very good point there but all of the things, low prices increase demand. low prices, the best cure for low prices is low prices. we know that story. greg's point is very good. you can't overshadow it. >> i can't wait to get to the gas station tonight. >> absolutely. >> thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you.

>> so a week to forget for the bulls at least in the equity market. market meltdown putting the dow and s&p down 3% plus for the week. >> time to run for the hills or a glimmer of hope for a santa claus rally? seasonal affect of the market rallies into the end of the year. our special coverage continues in a moment.

welcome back. yes, we closed out the week pretty much the way we began it.

ending with a 3.3% decline for both the dow and the s&p 500. >> worst week for the dow since 2011. >> so it's the worst week this year. >> for sure. and in several years. we are covering it from all platforms, all angles and locations for you. bob pisani. >> joining us shortly. >> bob santelli in chicago. bertha coombs at the nasdaq and our panel of experts over here. what stood out to you, bertha? the dow and s&p with brutal weeks and brutal for nasdaq, as well. >> it was but it was a relative outperform. not down as much as the blue chips. but, you know, you take a look at the like apple for example this week. technically weak note back below a one-month low and people not just doing tax loss selling but selling the winners it looks like maybe to preserve a little

cash, take a little bit of cash off the table. at the same time, where you're really seeing the pain is in the small caps, small caps, russell 2000 is now fractionally negative for the year and what you're seeing there is some of these small cap names in energy in particular getting sold off although they don't have a huge weighting down some of them as much as 90%. and you're also seeing the regional banks, particularly the oil exposure selling off. small call industries tells me that people are worried about expansion and growth. at the same time, you have some names on fire. we had nike here. hort hortonworks. that's a player. this is a big data mining, everybody uses hadup with data. facebook, google. and others. and they closed today with a $1 billion market cap and there's some areas that people are choosing and moving into and other areas where they're not

sure about growth. >> what's hadoop? anybody use that? >> it's a big data platform and basically everything these days is about data. that's how they know, you know, you write something in an e-mail suddenly it's in the facebook feed. >> whatever it is, you should get in on it. 65% gain there. >> $16 above the range and closing out above 25 bucks a share. really good day. >> rick, we were talking with the panel in the commercial break. we had that selloff on the close here in virtually everything and the yields kept going lowly on the treasury. what did you make of the tone of the market here? anybody to step in on monday or not here? >> you know, i think that the effects of year-end shouldn't be dismissed. i think energy obviously plays a big portion in this. but let's let the numbers speak for themselves. five years down 17 beeps on the week. 10-year down 23 on the week and

the great staff pointed on a weekly perspective, one of the biggest in two years. 24 basis points down on a 30-year. i think foreign exchange wise, watch japan's election results on sunday. my opinion is that it's pretty orderly. i think you see the market get their sea legs back before end of the year. >> you know, do you think we'll see sub-2% on the 10-year next week? >> i don't. i think we'll get right up to the water's edge and i really still think 2.14 like a pac-man buzzing point and gravitate to that like a moth to light. >> let's look at the opportunities. mr. shark -- >> he's not selling. he's buying. >> rooting around for truffles in two areas. tearing a ining apart all the m. they're dirty play. they have oil rigs in them.

trying to find out the positive and punished the most. space one. the more interesting space which i 'em really having some -- looks fascinating right now is 18% of j & k and the high-yield market issuance of shale to support the debt side of that cap x expenditure. you have junk debt melting, collapsing, and if you're a bond guy like me, you recognize through the cycles that that -- if you can find a company that won't go bankrupt and buy its debt at 20 and 30 cents, those are better than equity returns and so this weekend i'm starting bring out your debt on the shale. bring out your mid cap and lever themselves up and meet daddy. i'm looking at your balance sheet. >> an exciting weekend at the o'leary household. >> i love this stuff. >> don't you think there's consolidation here and that it's not just you you looking at this but the larger energy players looking at this, too.

>> hedge fund community now, hottest idea. what will happen is people take positions, force litigation and consolidation. you want to be out of the equities long the high-yield debt. you won't get it right but a portfolio strategy and decide to bet on ten or 12 names and ones in trouble. it was a drunken sailor's fest and low-cost debt. >> it was a gold rush. >> now they're screwed. >> bob, what stands out the you in terms of how we're set up and buying next week. >> we have seen materials and industrials droop dramatically this week and today worse than energy stocks. that's a sign that the global slowdown play is related but not exactly the same thing. the question is when that particular thing bottoms. we are getting weird stuff going on today. the vix hit almost 22 today. as we went into the close. and the front, the vix cash cob

contract is higher than the options contract months out. traders are worried about the gains for the year and protecting against losses. once that go away we'll see when's really going on. my feeling right now is there's a lot of interesting bargains throughout and i agree with kevin. >> are you bargain hunting, steve? >> yeah. if you look at quality versus defensive, a lot of quality names are sold off, as well. that strikes me as liquidity issues. >> like what? >> russell defensive versus dynamic, defensive is selling off in parity with the more dynamic names and getting back to what the federal reserve will do, that is central banker's world. and what i think this does global growth is slowing down. united states looks better. the fed doesn't have to do anything they don't want to do any time they don't have to do it. they'll give forward guidance right now and i think that's time and valuations are a

headwind of u.s. markets and those are more attractive. >> goldilocks scenario. >> low inflation, multiples that look more attractive. >> can they do that for a considerable period of time? >> reduce the likelihood to take the language out. >> we'll see. bob, thank you. rick, good weekend. bertha, appreciate it. >> good weekend to all of you. >> a lump of coal it says here in investors' stockings this month. >> is there selling to close out the year? what happens in the next two weeks? that is next. and apricots. what kind of chef comes up with this? a chef working with ibm watson, on the cloud. ingredients are just data. watson turns big data into new ideas. and not just for food. watson is working with doctors and bankers to help transform their industries. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.

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we are wrapping up what turned out to be a pretty rough week on wall street. >> what she said. >> let's bring in -- it's true. what did we say? worst week since 2011 for the dow. let's bring in chief economist and strategist david rosenberg for much-needed perspective. you and i before have gone back and forth of what the fall in oil means for the equity market and economy. how do you interpret what we saw this week on wall street? >> i think that what we had is a situation, you know, a week ago where the markets had a view that was mostly a supply related situation on oil. and there are some

second-guessing going on on whether there's demand destruction more broadly speaking. and the truth is probably somewhere in between. my sense is that the u.s. economy is going to be gaining momentum in the next year. i look at when's happening very much like what happened in the asian meltdown in 1997, '98 where commodities crashed. oil prices went down. bond yields, you know, fell almost 200 basis points. and somehow the u.s. economy grew 4%, a 2-year period. the stock market was volatile and generally a bull market. >> right. >> i think that we are taking a short-term picture. what happened today and the past week. my sense is that, you know, the market got overbought. you know, we gapped up against the 200-day moving average and now correct back. you know, things will get sinister if the 200-day moving average doesn't hold and something like, you know, 50, 60

points above that level. >> right, right. could you see the fed talking about the -- beginning the process of raising rates even as oil continues to go lower here and what it does to inflation expectations? >> right. that's a great question. and that's probably where there's been a real fundamental shift in my view. i don't think the fed's going to raise rates next year. >> at all? >> i don't think they're going to raise rates at all next year. i think they get the stealth tightening through the strengthening of the u.s. dollar. can you imagine the u.s. dollar next year? if the fed raises rates, the other central banks, norway cutting rates, ecb doing something bigger. the bank of japan is probably going to continue to extend quantitative easing and the fed's going to be raising rates in that environment and the u.s. dollar is going to act as a major tourniquet on the manufacturing sector. i think what will happen is the fed is shifting the goal posts

all along. the labor market is doing better. that's what their focus has been and shiftinging to inflation expectations. i think greg epperly hit the nail on the head with that. down to 1.6%. the tips break even levels are where they are in the past couple of years that touched off another round of quantitative easing. i don't think the fed will do that but i think that the odds that they raise rates next year even in the backdrop of a strong economy is fairly remote and i go back to that period again of '97, '98. remember, unemployment rate was 4%. not 5.8%. gdp growth was 4%. not 2.5% to 3% and that whole period in the asian meltdown, the greenspan fed with a tightening bias on the books on the whole period until long-term capital was unwound and never raised rates and the stronger dollar is going to do a lot of tightening for the fed next year. >> david, that is big call.

it's a nonconsensus call. they're expecting a second half interest rate increase in 2015. so how does your view to not raise rates change the investing landscape? mean that stocks continue this secular bull market, treasuries continue and the dollar keeps getting stronger relative to everyone snels. >> okay. that's an easier call than trying to call the next two weeks. so, basically talking about an end to the bull market, what we have to have happen is a recession. every recession's had a bear market. every bear market's had a recession and takes ultimately a rate hiking cycle that unvert s the rate curve. the fed on hold, bond yield's at 2%. a stronger dollar actually tells me that even though the earnings landscape is challenged obviously by the weakness in the overseas economy, that's not going to end any time soon. the case for multiple expansion from where bond yields are and

inflation expectations is probably going to give us i would say mid to high single digit return on the stock market next year. >> all right. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> we didn't make him predict next two weeks. >> you're lucky. the panel, very quickly, what happens if the fed doesn't raise rates at all next year? at all as he's saying? >> a sign of more emergency aid being needed. the fed would like to move us into forward guidance just means they want to get, psychology of the market positive. >> in the past if there was any hint that the fed was not raising rates any time soon, this market would be rallying through the roof. now it's gone the other direction. >> good for stock either way. '99, 2004, you get a correction in the s&p 500 and then months later, it rallies back. year end, up 6%, 8%. if he's right, you have clear sailing on the equities and lower energy costs an or if he's

wrong and raise rates 25 basis points in june, call it down 4% to 6% and way up by the end of the year. >> and not rushing to go to normal. >> catastrophic meteorite in new york, i think they're good. >> i saw that movie. >> news on wall street with the drop but late last night some important news from the nation's capital. dramatic vote there. >> the house of representatives approving that $1 trillion plus spending package to keep most government agencies operating new next summer. inside the deal with chuck todd. the senate going to get to vote on that. cnbc.com lit up. the hot list with allen wastler is straight ahead. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,

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actually, some progress in washington. the house approved its version of the hotly debated spending plan. senate still working on it right now until tomorrow to get that going. but even with the progress, wasn't enough to get the markets in the green today. >> let's bring in "meet the press" moderator chuck todd with his take. will we see it pass before the deadline tomorrow? >> i don't know. they have a little extra time if they need it into next week. it's going to pass. the senate democrats snoeshted this deal so while house democrats were cut out of the loop and made last night more

dramatic, i think, you know, does it happen tomorrow? maybe not. maybe a few senators trying to hold things up but this thing will pass. >> as the president pointed out this is a true compromise today. they've passed. there are plenty of democrats and republicans that don't like parts of this bill. is this something that we should be encouraged about or a classic lame duck bill and we wait until the new congress comes in and start the gridlock all over the again? >> i'm a cynic. feels like a classic lame duck bill and get it -- we're all ex-haused from the campaign year and get this done. senate republicans wanting to start with a clean slate. i don't know, i don't believe -- i think the only sign of things to come we learned last night is that the split, the division in the republican party that we'd all seen front and center for so long is now equally matched by a division inside the democratic party that had been papered over for the last six years because of rallying around the president. guess what.

that's not going to be the case anymore. i think you are going to see the progressive left now flex their muscles when they can sort of almost on -- just the way the tea party's conservatives have been doing to the house establishment for sometime. >> i want to bring in the panel and first very quickly your thoughts on senator warren. i know she made that pretty impassioned speech on the floor against wall street. is her appeal becoming more mainstream within the democratic party now as she continues to voice these opinions? >> well, i definitely think with wall street reform it is but don't assume it's something that's just inside the progressive left. i think that there is -- i think this was a warning shot from her when it comes to a showdown, i think dodd-frank and attempts by the new senate majority to change dodd-frank or democrats argue weaken dodd-frank. i think it means that you are going to see perhaps a more

united democratic party trying to fight that when it comes. i mean, when you look at the history of what got in this bill, specific provision she was arguing against is something democrats agreed to and seven or eight different provisions to weaken dodd-frank offered up that democrats negotiated away so i think this is elizabeth warren sending a signal that, guess what, there's real -- this could be a real fight. this could be the democrats' version of a debt ceiling showdown. anything on dodd-frank i think you see her get loud and democrats rally around her. >> i think from an investment perspective the unforced errors over the last years, the debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, that's not likely to happen this time around and not to be dismissive of people's politics but looking at the policies that means not a lot is changing. i think one of the better kept secrets right now is fiscal situation of the united states is probably improving more than most people expect. if you look at the deaf sit, percent of the economy next year, coming in under 3% which

is below the historic average since world war ii and getting that as something that's lined up as being a positive for the market railroad at least not a crashing blow in the face like it has been. >> disconcerting of the warren statement. listening as an investor, i think she is disconnected with the dodd-frank implementations made the economy less and it scares me. we don't need more regulation in this country. we need less. >> i the she would disagree with you on that. >> then we disagree and that's healthy. >> chuck, thank you. it's a remarkable week. we didn't talk about the torture report and the response. you'll be talking to former vice president dick cheney who was very outspoken in his criticism of that report. so we look forward to that coming up. thanks. >> see you sunday. >> see you then. markets and oil dominated the conversations this week. have they dominated the internet, as well?

>> we'll as we always do get the stories lighting up the website with -- cnbc.come managing editor. >> allen himself is lighting up the newsroom today. >> and ugly sweater. not the only one. there was a whole ugly sweater parade in new jersey. >> that's one ugly sweater. >> i like it. i think they're pretty. you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had a liberty mutual new car replacement,

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. big surprise here, oil-related stories were lighting up today's hot list on cnbc.com. let's check in with the managing editor and his ugly sweater which, apparently -- >> won an award, new. >> yes, i won the company ugly sweater contest. >> you must be so proud. >> very proud moment. >> quite the distinction. what went upton web, allen? >> ugly on the sweater, ugly in the markets. looking for answers on oil. so they had what a call the wisemen effect. people looking to see what leading figures are saying. big richardson was on squawk box, we wrote up his interview, e thinks oil will go down to 45 bucks a barrel and he made a

pitch for lifting up the export bans on oil and natural gas. number two, people look for the counterplay, our friends at options action wrote up a neat story for us. somebody put a $2 million bet in the options market that energy sector prices are going to turn around by next march. if they're right, they get $11 million, not a bad payoff. finally the international energy agency, it lowered its demand forecast in the upcoming year. it also warned about the drop in oil may lead to serious unrest throughout the world and they were very, very explicit about that. people are reading that story, worried about not only what it's doing to the markets but society at large across the globes. that's what people are reading. >> well, we certainly saw that in effect the markets as well. congratulations, alan, on your prize. >> a proud moment. >> i will tell you, we knew it was ugly christmas sweater day. we got a memo, the on-air talent yesterday saying "don't you dare

wear a sweater on the air." >> yes, we did. >> they couldn't trust us. >> it would have been distracting. >> i guess so. >> maybe. >> we'll be finishing up a rough week for the markets here. >> will next week be a repeat? we'll talk about key event risks. our panel weighs in after this wick break. we'll back in two minutes on closing bell. what? in 3...2...1... are you kidding me? go. right on time. right now, over 20,000 trains are running reliably. we call that predictable. thrillingly predictable.

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. we want to show you what happens during commercial breaks here on "closing bell." just take a picture of kevin. >> i'm wearing my tradition secret society wine drinker of which i'm a member. >> i think the mason's are more fun. >> this is a big deal because we're talking a lot about the markets and everything. we have an indicator here. you just made your biggest investment, the biggest investment in shark tank history. >> it's the largest deal ever done, $2.5 million. i'm betting single-serve technology, this technology is going to revolutionize the wine industry. the only beverage in america you can't buy in a single serve because we've never had the packaging right. this technology allows for an 18-month shelf life. >> so you open the bottle of wine? >> no, you can now take o'leary wine. >> we just happen to have a bottle of o'leary wine here.

>> shameless promotion. this is nectar from the nipple of a frphrodite, you can buy th with a glass. you can take it to an event, put it in your purse [ laughter ] >> absolutely. i think what will happen is this will become immensely popular over time. >> what am i paying for that? >> anywhere from $2.99 to $6. 9. >> it tastes good after eight months? >> it's amazing. that was the break through. because by the sealing and the nitrogen gas, it keeps it good for 18 months. all other attempts at single-serve wine have failed. my big bet is this is going to take off. >> sharon? >> all wines? white wine? red wine? >> i'm hoping every wine brand uses this product. >> i know kevin o'leary got a good deal on this. did the guys who started the thing get a good deal or did you get 70% of the company? >> i bought 10% and they get mr. wonderful which i think adds

value. >> who's doing a good job of selling this. >> that's my job. >> would you buy it, sharon? >> i don't know if i would put that in my purse but -- i don't want to admit if i would put in the my purse. >> what if you get caught on the subway? >> but i think it has a great appeal and i'm -- but i'm -- as the mother of a tween i think that will have great appeal. >> i think it will be great for concert, airplanes. >> i'm making the assumption, my financial estimates, that 15% of the wine market in 36 months will be in single serve. that's my big bet. this is a big bet but i think i'm going to be right. i love wine, i'm into it. and if i could have a single serve chardonnay, i love. >> it could i put bourbon in there? >> any beverage. >> i like that idea of that for football games and concerts. >> beers are in cans, why shouldn't wine be. >> he gets to do it with this,

that's why it will be so much fun. >> "fast money" is coming up in a few seconds, melissa lee. >> i think i'll pass on that. >> you wouldn't naught in your purse? >> kevin o'leary and the members of tass vin are appalled at single serve wine, i think. >> have a good weekend! >> you, too. lots to talk about with breaking news we're dealing with. the market selloff accelerating in the final hour of trading. "mast money" starts right now. we are live from the nasdaq market site. i'm melissa lee. our traders are tim seymour, patriot and brian. the decline that doesn't seem to stop pressuring the broader market once again today. crude prices falling more than 3% after the international energy association cut its oil demand forecast. that move spooking investors with the major indices down more than 1% apiece. the dow down 4% this wiebe aeek. the credit markets getting ready for more volatility. the