welcome to "on the money." i'm becky quick. santa claus rallies or coal in the stocking. what will the rest of the year bring? and why falling oil prices aren't always good news. new regulations that could make it easier to buy a house. but does it mean that another mortgage disaster might be in sight? the clock is ticking. saving you money in the new year. and the sweet smell of success. chocolates with master pastry chef jacques torres. i love this job. "on the money" starts right now. >> this is "on the money." your money, your life, your future. now becky quick. >> here's a look what is making news as we head to a new week

"on the money." how low can it go? the price of oil keeps on tumbling falling below $58 a barrel this week, a five-year low. partly due to increased supply from the united states and decreased demand for the strong u.s. dollar. the oil measuring the markets. they were pretty jittery this week. the dow and s&p with the worst performance on wednesday since mid october. falling more than 1.5%. the nasdaq had the first two-day losing streak since october. stocks kept falling later in the week. consumers spent a lot of time shopping in november. retail sales came in stronger than expected up 0.7%. as always a closely watched number because consumers make up two thirds of the economy. if you have an old apple computer sitting in your attic or the basement, you may want to take a closer look. a 1976 apple one that actually still works sold for $365,000 at christie's this week. lower oil prices are good news for the stock market and economy except when they are not.

don't rule out santa claus. maybe a rally the end of the year. joining us right now is tom lee is the funder of fund extra lobe advisers and leigh gallagher from "fortune" magazine. we thank you both for being here. it has been scary watching what happened with oil prices. normally you would think yay yay, go oil prices. but this time is dragging stocks down with it. what's happening here? >> i think that investors have been nervous about slowing economic growth. china and europe have been weak and oil is a signal of a recession. i think investors have been trying to figure out how much is supply issue and how much is demand. in the meantime investors have been wanting to get out of anything related to oil. >> you mentioned that this is how much of it is supply, how much of it is demand. we know it's a little bit of both. what's your best guess to how you break this down? >> i suspect that dollar strength and market positioning is playing a bigger role in the

weakness of oil than we suspect. we've had a really sharp decline, i mean we're talking 40% in just a few months. >> how do you look at this? good news for the consumer, bad news for the market? how do you shake it out. >> it's funny. the first time in a really long time we've got the tables turned. we have seen the stock market do so well as people on main street continue to struggle. now this is kind of the exact flip side of that, for once. what that means is basically for consumers this is billions of extra dollars. goldman sachs calls it a blessing. you can look at it as an extra tax cut only one that favors the middle class more than the 5%. >> a progressive tax cut. >> exactly. the opposite of let's say the mortgage interest deduction, which is completely regressive. what you have is around the time for the holidays when retail, earlier, a month ago people were not sure what is happening with retail. looks like things are stronger than we thought. and going to get stronger for the next few weeks.

don't forget, it takes awhile for the decline in oil prices to trickle down to the gas pump, and then people's pockets. we are seeing results from a month ago. it is continuing to drop. >> they see savings in the bank accounts on those things, not just $10 a week, $20 a week but weeks of it that has build up. we are getting to the time of the year where we see a santa claus rally. is that going to be the case this year? what do you think? >> yes, i think so. i know the markets have been choppy the last week or so and investors are scared. i think they are feeling beaten down. it has been a tough year for active management. but the santa claus rally is about how markets think about next year and i think there's a lot of sources of surprise. gasoline is a huge deal, lower oil is benefitting outside of the u.s. more than the u.s. so as we worried about europe and china i think we're going to start to see some upsiding. companies have a lot of cash. i think we are positioned for a santa claus rally. >> i've heard repeatedly from a lot of different places that

what you're seeing at the end of the year is going to be very hard for the indexes to go down, because fund managers, like you said, have been so beat up by the indexes. they're trying to make sure that they can log in some sort of gains for this year. what happens when we reset the clock in january? is that off -- a brand new start at that point. do we see a decline. do you worry about that? >> it could be. i do. for a long time, almost as long as this rally has been happening, everyone has been talking about the "c" word, the correction. and we haven't had it yet. i think that's one reason why we saw the market react the way it has over the past few weeks, the very hint of something that was unexpected which is the decline in oil prices. there's a lot of shakiness. we are doing well. our economy has great science and growth. we are the safe port in a storm if you look at what's happening globally. there's a lot of skittishness. >> tom, you have been bullish for a long time. what do you expect in 2015? does it continue? >> yeah. in fact, i don't investors are that optimistic. you know, they're worried about

oil. they're worried about high yields. the last couple of weeks people have been very frustrated because of their performance against indexes. it tells me we could have a very good year next year. i might even say january could be strong out of the gate. >> part of that will be trying to figure out what the fed is doing during that period of time, too. if the fed raises rates does that change the game? what do we expect? leigh, what do you think? >> i think that is a big factor in the overall nervousness. we have the best jobs report in 15 years, that must mean the fed is going to raise rates earlier so everybody then freaks out. conventional wisdom is that nothing will be adjusted but it is coming down the pike but may not get in the way of a strong january as tom is predicting. >> tom when you say that you think that january could be off to the races, what are you telling your clients right now? are you telling them not to wait for dips? are you telling them to just -- >> i'm telling them to look through the oil and to through the high yield market which has

been hit by energy and that's been a big drag and focus on the fundamentals. companies are in a great financial position. consumers have a lot of spending power. i think we have consensus talking about fed tightening. the reality is the consensus is bracing for tightening. maybe the reality is it's later. >> what oil stocks. would you tell them to be in energy or oil stocks or you think we could be in lower prices for some time to come? >> i think right now we are seeing a real liquidation of energy stocks which obviously creates opportunity. at the end of the day no one is distinguishing good and bad companies. >> all right. thank you both for joining us. >> thank you. >> really appreciate it. up next, we are "on the money." forget the big down payment. soon 3% down could make you a homeowner. is now the time to buy a house or is in the beginning of a new real estate bubble? later if you just spent a ton of money this holiday season, maybe we can help you save some now. we have some last-minute tax tips to take advantage of. as we head to a break look at how the stock market ended the week.

buying a home could get easier. mortgage giants fannie mae and freddie mac are launching programs making mortgages available to borrowers with just 3% down payments. yale professor and nobel president winning economist robert shiller is co-founder of the widely followed case shiller index that measures home prices and he joins us right now. professor, thank you for being here today. >> my pleasure, becky. >> i'm of two minds on this. it sounds like a great idea to get more consumers in to homes. isn't this what got us in to trouble to begin with, 3% down payments? >> it is not completely new now.

we have fha mortgages doing almost the same. yes, it is. it sounds risky, right, to the lender and for the mortgage insurer who will insure these. it is only a 3% margin. if someone defaults and they have to sell the house they may not get all the money back. the good side is usually people don't default for a year or two at least. >> the good news is we won't have another crash for another year or two. >> well, that's a question. home prices -- our latest numbers are going up at 5% a year. if that keeps up, 3% margin will turn to an 8% margin for lenders in one year. >> although we have seen years where home prices may decline by 10%. >> that's what worries me. we are seeing a deceleration. they are going up but at a lower pace. in history that's been the precursor to actual decline. the fact it is slowing is a concern.

this might be more like the 1970s or the '80s boom, not like the really big one that led to the financial crisis. >> we can cross our fingers on that. one of the concerns is that millennials aren't buying houses the way previous generations have. what's happening there? >> well, i wish we knew for sure. one thing, of course, is the economy is still weak, somewhat weak. millennials are still uncertain. maybe also there's a cultural change. our millennials spend more time on facebook than standing over the backyard fence and talking to the neighbors. neighborhoods, you know, are not as important or maybe there is an urbanization trend going on. >> or maybe they are getting married and having kids later. maybe they will change, too. >> maybe they love mom and dad and are staying home. >> we have been watching oil prices. oil prices continue to set the multi-year lows. how does that impact the housing market?

>> well, i think, first of all, low oil prices have historically been a good sign for gdp, for the economy and jobs. jobs are very important for the housing market. the other thing that comes to my mind is i have been worrying about home prices in remote suburbs where they seem to be weaker. i think one concern is the commuting cost. when people see oil prices, gas prices going down they will feel more favorable to buying a remote house that is a 45 minute or hour drive from the city. >> because a cheaper commute these days. do you think that buying a home is a good investment and do you think now is a good time to buy? >> in a sense it is a good investment. it is the only one some people make and you have to have something to live on when you

retire. i'm glad people are doing that. on the other hand, historically, houses have not done well as investments. they haven't really gone up much in value in the last 100 years. on top of that, they are a nuisance just to take care of them. >> they are a nuisance but at least you get to live in this investment. >> i own my own home. we have neighbors. we have been here for 30 years. we have old friends right across the street. it's nice. but that's not really an investment. that's people. that's community. >> right. >> professor shiller, thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure, becky. up next we are "on the money." ring in the new year with savings. get last-minute tips and make sure you don't pay too much to uncle sam. later, could the world run out of chocolate? no! how we are eating more of the sweet stuff than ever and how that is changing the price tag. chef and entrepreneur jacques torres weighs in.

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you may have nearly finished your holiday shopping but there are money moves to add to your to do list that could impact your tax bill for 2014. personal finance correspondent sharon epperson is here to talk about your money, your future and some dos and some don'ts. what do i need to make sure that i do before the end of the year to make sure i don't get penalized. >> one of the biggest wrinkles for many people is the affordable care act and whether or not you have had health insurance during the year.

if you have not you are going to get penalized. you need to figure out what the tax bite might be. if you went to an insurance health marketplace and got a credit you also want to figure out what that might be. there are on-line calculators to figure out the impact. you want to start there. that's one of the key things to do. . the other thing is your flexible spending accounts. those are use it or lose it usually. there are some provisions with some plans that let you extend it to march to use the money but not all plans offer that. some plans now allow you to carry over $500, but not all plans. find out what your employer will let you do. >> go get glasses, anything you can before the end of the year. >> exactly. exactly. >> use up that flexible spending money. >> the other thing is if you are retired or you inherited an i.r.a., you want to make sure you take the required minimum distribution. you can't defer taxes on regular 401(k) and i.r.a. forever. you have to take those required minimum distributions and if you don't the penalty can be steep. you want to make sure you take it by the end of the year.

>> what about things to make sure you get the most out of things, tried and true tip s, like cutting back on your taxable income. is it too late to figure any of that out? >> it's not too late. you have time to max out as much money as you can into your 401(k), into your employer's retirement plan. you can reduce your taxable income that way. $17,500 is what you can put in this year and an extra $5500 if you're 50 or older so that's $23,000 that you won't be taxed on if you put that in to your regular 401(k). if you are low to moderate income save and put money in an i.r.a. or 401(k) you may be eligible for a saver's credit up to $2,000. this is the time of year for giving and also for those who are less fortunate. make your charitable contributions and make sure you do that by december 31st. so that you will get that tax deduction. >> we know it has been a good year for the stock market. we love the stock market returns. we don't love the capital gains taxes. what do we do about this.

>> you can sell the losers if you have them to offset the gains and that's a tried and true rule you should adhere to. the other thing is to delay selling winners. you don't want to add capital gains to income on and get taxed on the money. wait about that. the other thing people don't think of is mutual funds, it is great to dollar cost average in mutual funds but you don't want to buy up a bunch of shares at the end of the year. you want to make sure dollar cost averaging is great but if you're thinking about buying a bunch of new mutual fund shares you might want to hold off and do it for the new year. >> thank you. our financial santa claus with tips. next up on "on the money," a look at the news for the week ahead. and isn't it sweet? chocolatier jacques torres joins me with a look at sweet treats and big sellers this holiday season. zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.

for more on our show and our guests go to our website. otm.cnbc.com. here's the stories coming up that may impact your money this week. monday, we will get the latest report on industrial production for the month of november. tuesday, we get the housing starts for november. happy hanukkah, everybody. the festival of lights begins on tuesday evening. on wednesday, the federal reserve's open market committee ends the two-day meeting on monetary policy. on wednesday, happy birthday to pope francis who turns 78. with cocoa prices up 25% in the past year and consumers around the world eating more chocolate than ever, we are starting to wonder if chocolate could be a rare precious commodity.

joining us with the skinny on the chocolate business, i'm joined by jacques torres. founder of jacques torres chocolate. thank you for being here. >> thank you for inviting me. >> there have been some scary headlines out there concerning chocolate recently. we have heard of hershey and mars, the ceos saying they need to raise prices because the commodity is becoming more expensive. we've also heard producers saying there's not enough cocoa being planted to keep up with our demand. are we facing a shortage? >> few answers to that. the first answer is that we are producing 3.5 million tons of cocoa around the world we need 4.5 in about six years, in 2020. so we have to step up the production. buying more cocoa and that's why we use more. maybe the solution, the farmers are not paid off and a lot of

farmers are abandoning cocoa and we don't want that. we want to pay a little more for the kilo of cocoa in order for them to grow it. i think that fair trade will be a solution. education is a solution. how to plant more cocoa trees for an acre. also teach how to spray the trees. the trees are delicate and 90% of farmer, little family who grow few trees. so that's a big indication. i think that is -- you mentioned they are investing to teach and help the farmers. >> we're not going to run out of chocolate? >> not for the frequent chocolates and big companies. for us, the small maker we already pay a premium for chocolates and the beans. our price will go high and fast than the chocolate which is 68% of the world production of chocolate.

we are safer. the america produces 15% of the world's production of cocoa and this is pretty much what we use. we should be okay. we pay more already and fair trade is our thing. so we should be fine. >> get to what you have brought in today. this smells fantastic. i feel sorry for the viewers at home. this is hot chocolate you just whipped up. >> this is real hot chocolate. not cocoa powder. this is real chocolate. the same chocolate i use in my bonbon. this is how we make the hot chocolate. it's rich -- >> it is like drinking liquid candy is essentially what we are doing here. >> it's actually not too sweet. we use 60% cocoa, not too much sugar. this is actually pure chocolate. you are right. >> it's a chocolate syrup is so thick. >> thank you. we do a lot of things for the holiday days. hanukkah pretty soon, we have a few things for hanukkah and also

lot of different gifts for christmas from the item bonbon and snowman and little bags of everything that we document the orange coated with chocolate, cherries, a lot of those things with chocolate. we have a lot of gifts and chocolate ready for the holiday. >> what is holiday sales for you in terms of the eight stores that you have in new york city, two factories. >> christmas is going to be 35%, 38%. and then easter. so christmas is the first one easter, and then valentine's is the third one but valentine is crazy. valentine is the biggest deal of the year. the smallest holiday in numbers because it is short but it is one day of craziness. we love valentine's. everybody go behind the counter sell chocolates. you know it says something interesting about valentine's. ladies come before and they know what they want two or three days

before and they pick what they want. men -- >> let me guess. last-minute shoppers. >> they don't really know who we are and they have a price in mind, not a product. so we try to cater to everyone and have everything ready that day. >> doesn't surprise me to hear that at all. jacques, thank you for coming in and sharing today and wish you the best. >> thank you very much. happy to be here. >> thank you very much. that's hour show for today. i'm becky quick. thank you so much for joining me. next week a look at "frozen on ice" with nicole feld of feld entertainment. that's the company that produces the live theatrical event. each week keep it right here. we are "on the money." cheers, everybody. we will see you next weekend.

i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. the holidays can be an especially difficult time. everything's different now. sometimes i feel all alone. christmas used to be my favorite. i just don't expect anything. what if santa can't find me? to help, sleep train is holding a secret santa toy drive. bring your gift to any sleep train, and help keep the spirit of the holidays alive. not everyone can be a foster parent. but anyone can help a foster child.

>> narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... hail to...the thief. commander bobby thompson. >> this story went from a dilapidated, rundown duplex all the way to the white house. >> narrator: thompson's a harvard-educated lawyer claiming to run a $100-million charity for veterans. >> this organization had collected millions of dollars, promising to give that to veterans who needed it and, in turn, doing far from that. >> narrator: veterans get pennies, and the commander uses the proceeds as a political slush fund. >> is it just politics as usual? is there something deeper going on? i still don't know the answer. >> narrator: when his crime is uncovered, thompson dares