cupertino california. 11:00 a.m. here an wall street. "squawk alley" is live. a special guest joining us this morning. aspen institute ceo author of the innovators. walter isaacson is here. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> what a day. especially with what happened in russia overnight. the dow has flipped positive. session low is down 99 and a third points. currently up 80. oil trying to make a run out of it. >> and a little more stability today. and i think that is the important thing we're seeing. i want to show you sectors that have been horribly over sold in the last month or so. so any of the metal stocks have been dramatically over sold. they are bouncing today.

the energy stocks in general likes the xle, that is the etf out there has been dramatically over sold. also a group that's been dramatically over sold, we don't talk about europe much. but here is your efa. and this is what's been going on in europe recently. that's been down dramatically. 6% this month. 10% year to date. that is bouncing a little bit at well. so the weak sectors are showing more stability and even a bounce today. that is what's helping the overall market. as for the russian stock market, which is the center of attention. you can buy that the rts is the exchange trading fund with the

russian stock market. that's down 12% but that's relatively stable compared to earlier today. russian banking officials saying the central bank may be taking more measures. the speculation is there could be potentially capital controls coming. no word officially but that is the speculation there. down 12%. the thing i watch the most finally is the yen carry trade. the dollar yen. the carry trade. so many money invested in that all over the world, that any reversal gets the traders attention. the yen is strengthening. that stereohas stabilize etoo i. >> thanks. walt let's begin with russia. is this 98? >> yes it definitely is. you see with the collapse of oil

price is going russia. i think is going to put great pressure on putin. i'm not sure he's going to survive this. and you can't pull capital controls in now. i think there is that run on the ruble. and combine that with the sanctions and putin expansionist ambitionings, not good to russia. >> likely hi turns tail and tries to make zprend gfriends a the p sanctions taken off. >> that is the whole point of the sanctions is to cause somebody to be more constructive. and then you take them off. and look he's hurting. by the way iran is hurting. so sanctions on iran and russia. they usually don't work but combine them with falling oil prices and they work. both countries come to the table. >> what do you mean when you say you think he'll survive this. >> what i think in the next year or so, if the economy continues to get really bad the way it is, you can't have growth with 17%

interest rates. you can't have a thriving economy with oil under 60 dollars a barrel there. >> the approval ratings for putin i think could be best describe as opaque. today we're getting anecdotes of people in russia flocking to stores to buy appliances and big ticket items. at what point there is that populous backlash to bring him hot the table. >> economic problems. and i think that he will probably take the hand reached out by kerry, certainly his foreign minister is close to kerry. they could work something outs. but i think in the long run this is really bad for putin because he could use the sanctions as a way to help his popularity. he could say this is the big bad west again hurting us. russian nationalism needs to be resurgent but you can't do that when you are getting this badly hurt and it is not really just

the sanctions doing it. >> the impression we've gotten is that he's done a pretty thorough job eliminating competition for power, kind of putting several layers between him and any threats. what sort of force would it take to push him out? and what kind of impact was that have on the markets? >> let me step back and be historical for a moment. russia is a great test case of the great historical issue of whether it's great forces that change things or people, agencies, humans make a difference. and look at russia and look at amazing human leadership that changes things. gorbachev and yetten. >> m medvedev was somebody who could do business with.

or of course you could have a huge populous uprising with nationalism and it could get worse. i'm hoping to end one the medvedev character. >> jebb bush with a note on facebook and twitter saying he's going to create this exploratory committee to actively pursue a presidential run. >> not in the last am i surprised. ive think he's been weighing this and i've certainly heard him talk about to it friends. he has a tough time that's not just political. he has to figure whether his family wants it and other things. but it's really good for the american system to have somebody get into the race who's basically a moderate conservative. somebody like a jeb bush who isn't rabid on immigration. >> you haven't had to run in a primary in this country. >> yeah but he said something

really good. you don't want this country led by people who can only win prime ris. and he's been good on educations. super on education. core curriculum and choice and ways to do school reform like in florida. but he's conservative when it comes to economic policy. >> would you back him. >> i'm with you. -- we're on "squawk alley." >> what does it say that we've got arguably these two dynas dynasties. a bush and clinton. maybe a little detour but. >> obviously it's both amusing and slightly disconcerting. but for this show the viewers understand the consent of a brand. the clinton brand is a certain things. and by the way it is triangulating moderate, sensi e

sensible, bringing down the deficit when you are a democrat. reforming welfare when you are that democrat. the bush brand is also a brand. and it's pragmatic, somewhat center right. what does it say? it actually says that people are yearning for people who knew how to work across the aisle. people who are not dogmatic and theologic theological. and people who whole life they don't wake and say how do i win a primary but how do alead a nation. >> not the best week for apple. in the meantime shares of fwogoe hitting lowest levels in a year. and finally look at tesla. down about 3 and a half percent. broke 200 earlier this morning and raises a conversation we have all the time, is tesla a play on lower oil prices? a lot of people argue a $90,000 car, not the same universe.

>> when you can afford a hummer that normally would have been very expensive to fill up with gas but now is getting very cheap relatively to fill up, maybe you don't need a tesla. that is the argument people are having. >> well every silver lining has a cloud. and the silver lining of low oil prices is great for the consumer and our geopolitical strategy on russia and iron. but it does hurt electric vehicles and alternative sources of energy. i hope people keep their eye on the long game. and i also think tesla is enormously innovative company led by a great entrepreneur. and i would cringe at the thought of riding around in a hummer. but i really desire if i can afford one the next tesla. >> does seem like it hurts the prius perhaps more than the

tesla. in northern california nobody is getting a the hummer stepfather a tesla. there are neighborhoods where you can get your house wrecked parking a hummer in the driveway. >> i have a preou o prius. and i think people understand that just burning fuel unnecessarily even if gas prices go to $2 and something a gallon, you know, i'm not sure we're going to get back into that whacky consumption mode. >> i have a image of you in a hummer. >> never happening. >> finally google is testing a new buy button looking to go after amazon in the online commerce market. if you try to shop on google you will be refer to the many merchant's individual website. this aims to keep users searching on google instead of

moving to amazon. >> dangerous territory. google is already running into the issues with the likes of yelp and others saying they are prioritizing their own interests ahead of search instead of what's best to the customer. >> i would argue a bigger threat to paypal. because paypal has been trying to be that agnostic button on the merchant websites. they are not shipping or selling. i would argue this is more a threat to them. >> i think i agree with jon. i agree with you too but i agree with jon that google has to watch. because it is such an innovative company. if it continues to innovate but not try to corral people and keep them, where if you search anything you get their things, as polarized to being a search engine that allows you go out. certainly in europe this is going to be a real problem and i think even in the u.s. it is a bit of a problem.

>> a quick update on the story we told you about in the last your. the would be 72 million kid trader. >> what we do have now is an actual formal apology from new york magazine just posted which reads in part we were duped. our fact checking was obviously inadequate and we should have known better. new york apologizes again to its readers. this high school student, 17 years old, alleged to have made $72 million trading the markets. in fact it turns out and admitted last night they made nothing trading the market as all. >> what an apology. thank you. walter, the observer last night started it's been a rough month for fact checking. >> especially in conventional media. rolling stone and new york magazine. i think the editor handled this

well. people can dupe you. i've been duped in my life. this didn't fully meet the smell test. but then again you said hey. somebody set out to fool me. i got fooled. here is the facts. that's what a good journalist does. and i think it's one of the greatest magazines of our time. so i'm not going to hold this against them. this is not even the uva rape case. not like a pattern you have seen with the people glass at the new republic. i think this is just a guy who was able to dupe a reporterer. >> the court of public opinion erupted last night. jessica press ler responded saying we were shown a bank statement with eight figures in it. that's a pretty elaborate dupe. >> you have all sorts of dupes

in the world. i think if you want to dupe somebody you probably can. i don't know who gains out of any of this. i don't know that the guy gains for having done it. i think new york magazine looks a little bit silly but look. he did an elaborate ruse to dupe us. editor says we were dooupd. mistake and we're sorry. >> a lot more with walter. >> i'm an old magazine editor. >> we know. we've heard of that magnitudes. more on the dramatic fall of the ruble. plus what is walter's big idea for 2015? and gaming is big in china, as you know. myspace co-founder chris dewolf will talk about his new game hitting the market at the moment. and also actor and big time

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welcome back. priceline is getting hit on news that goldman sachs removed the stock from its conviction buy list. citing declines in the euro. still is down about 1 and a half

percent off session lows. >> thanks dominick chu. candy crush is about to findite find i itself in a tough level. cookie jam. just days after facebook named cookie jam its game of the year. here is the ceo at sgn and a myspace co-founder. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> so this bet oh out of kim kardashian's game. beat it candy rush. what does it take to make a game addictive like this. >> it's really a lot of work. we have a offices in san francisco, l.a. and san diego and some of the best artist and designers in the business.

>> what does it take to make a game popular on facebook obviously when other platforms and consoles are become also that important. >> i think you hit the nail on the head. it's important to be cross-platform. we all our games to be playable on facebook, apple, google play, wherever anyone wants to play them. and they also need to have that social element in there which i think is one of the things we do probably better than anyone else. we make our games social so they are more fun to play. >> chris, where do you go from here? it seems like social games. and we've talked about this before, had a lot of excitement and hype behind them at fist. but now the question seems to be what can you build on top of them? how can you further monetizes. as you move into china where the gaming market is different than the u.s., what is your strategy business wise? >> great question. so china is an incredibly different market than any other

market because it is incredibly fragmented. so here in the u.s. if we want to get a game or an app all we do is go into our iphone or app store and grab it. or google play. there is two places basically to get it in china it is different. there are literally 15 different app stores. so as a u.s. game developer you want to be really popular in china you really need to have a great partner. and that's why we chose net ease chaz t which is a $13 billion company on nasdaq. >> how do you choose. >> we started working with them about three months ago. they are in the process currently of not only translating the site but almost

importantly localizing the game for the chinese population. so we plan on launching in later part of the first quarter and continuing to ramp up. so they already have a set marketing plan which looks fantastic. it is a function of some traditional marketing as well as some super creative deals with both off line and on line blands. >> certainly a lot of developers who only wish they could get into china. congratulations finding a way to do just that. >> thanks. thanksal really excited. >> when we come back, walter isa isaacson has his eye on one technology in plaer in 2015. we'll that etell you tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,

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this cloud turns data into excitement. this is the microsoft cloud. back to headquarters. >> more effects related to the ruble. fxcm, a online retail trading platform. as of noon today they are not

going to allow clients to trade the ruble anymore because they are concerned about whether or not there are going to be capital controls. liquidity froefrd tproviders as possible because of the terrific -- dramatic fall in the last two days. this as large provider on daily trading. average daily volume of 17 billion dollars. we don't know the amount of that that is ruble but they are a platform of size. so basically they're saying you have a half hour to trade and then they are going to stop to protect themselves and their clients. prime minister medvedev of russia after the meeting he had saying that they did not talk about capital controls.

but clearly if things continue the way they are it is going to be a concern and one of the possible tools they can use to stem this decline. >> a long night in moscow. just for the dow really quick. still up. s&p up almost 19 points. second day in a row a 25 to 30 point swing in the s&p. that doesn't happen a lot. this particular week, given the day of expiration and a day before a fed meeting historically bullish. >> the biggest component of the reversal, boeing which is in the news. and markets taking their cue from europe which markets have recovered a little bit over there. we'll get more in a moment but interesting to see a different trade following europe today at least. >> dow closed 99 yesterday. today's session low.

down 99. so people don't want to see it go down triple digits. >> apple and dozens have companies have signed up to accept apple pay. >> our clients are apple users and they want us to be part of that platform. and you off set some of the costs with what we think will be increased opportunity. early payments are very good. >> you think mobile payments in general is the big idea for 2015. i think it's important to find disruptive technologies that disrupt the financial banking credit card systems so we can have easier payment systems. apple pay fine. if you got a credit card and you can do it. to me i wrote a book the innovators that came out earlier. and one of the things is that i

looked at the development of the sbernd internet can the web there were supposed to be protocols in it that allowed micro payments and cyber currency so you could make your payment without being it with the mental transaction cost and other attractitransaction cost through a credit card or paypal or apple pay. i'm disappointed apple pay didn't do it with its own financial thing and decided to use people's credit cards. >> what is the catalyst that makes it happen? with all the infrastructure needs and the apple is its own eco system. >> one catalyst will be bit coin. bit coin really caught on. not as something that you could speculate in. but oh i can have a bit coin wallet and i pay 25 cents, 50 cents. whatever. you have dozens of companies now coming on to do bit coin wallets. bit coin is a bit controversial

and some people consider it weird. but many, many younger people are using bit coin wallets so they can make payments. i think other people will come on with competing products because there is a hunger for cyber currency. and thirdly if i may, you can have, say, mileage programs and loyalty programs and earning points as with united mileage plus. that goes in a wallet and you spend it online. >> all that exists in the the traditional banking world and yes silicon valley is eating our lunch but a apple if you want to --. they would argue that because some of these companies aren't willing to be regulated they have to stop at certain products like -- >> i know. i think you have a banking system that deeply protects, just like the cab industry does from uber anything that can be disruptive. but i do believe that, you know,

it is hard to start a bank. that's why cyber currencies, krypto currencies, things like that that have value or even your mileage plus miles that have value, or things you can use online without -- and it will start to disrupt the traditional banking system. secondarily the traditional banking system doesn't allow micro payments and it. mean that in a little less traditional sense. a quarter, 50 cents. i'm online and i want a copy of the new orleans advocate for the times for a dime. you cannot do that very easily. but if you had a change purse, that would allow people to create songs, blog, newspapers. intellectual things that people might want. and you would spur an economy just like 450 years ago the statute of ann did an economy based on copyright.

you could have an economy where people could sell things digitally for small. of money. >> certainly would make our world more interesting just scratching the surface of this. >> going back to --. this was a trangtry of all innovati innovation. you make it more personal. you make it easier. you make it simpler and cut out the intermediate arrintermediar. that's been a 50 year traject y trajectory. and i think we're going see wit the financial micro payment. >> we told you earlier in the hour european markets turned around. let's bring in simon hobbs. >> watching a powerful rally just in the last few minutes. italy up over 3%. france up 2. germany up two. the u.k. up 2 and a quarter. but you still have the core,

france, italy germany pulling down for everybody else. the bulk of the market after a six day slump is rallying today. those russian exposed stocks have had a bad day indeed. carlsberg has down 30% this year. in the u.k. we had inflation data that as a result of energy prices fell down to 1% given that it's almost 1 factor% from target. mark carney is just on the verge of having to write a letter to the finance minister to explain how that is. and the bank of england ran the stress test. run failed.

these just slipped through. in the meantime the big event is clearly the first vote in greece. we'll get the results midday tomorrow first of three about whether they can get a president through the parliament. and if they can't do it by december 29, there is a snap general election. if there is going to be a snap election and you get qe from the ecb, j.p. morgan believes january 22nd, could they buy greek debt. that is a risk, that is a red flag that they may not be able to take. back to you. >> well this week two projects face off. we're letting you decide which campaign should take that title.

dragon fly combines smart cell phones, laptops and tablets into one device. and because it acts as three devices users only need one data plan. the campaign's goal, 10,000 dollars. so far it's raised nearly 600,000. kairos t band. the band is interchangeable giving users access to most smart phone features on their analog watches. who should be this week's tech crowd leader. vote now. >> when we come back the dow up 235. a massive interday swing. we're going to talk more about that and talk about the last time this happened in just a moment. opinions. there's no shortage in this world.

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-- also conoco phillips and hess to the upside. the question, could we have reached a bottom? only time will tell but for right now there is a lot of bullishness on trying to pick bottoms in the oil market.

back to you. >> i wonder if michelle caruso cabrera is back on hq. >> ruble nearly positive. huge rebound. the big meeting that they did not discuss capital controls. take a look. 68 to the dollar. consider this morning we were talking about 79.91, nearly 80 rubles to the dollar. that is breathtaking interday volatility for the currency. there you can see the two day chart there what's been going on. but back down to 68 perhaps because of this talk of no capital controls. >> initial you wemichelle you w when kerry made those comments. >> that could also be a help as well.

a lot of concerns about russia and not just relate told oil but the situation with ukraine and whether or not there were going to be more sanctions imposed. that kind of dovish talk would just the ukrainian bill yesterday isn't going to be implemented in its toughest form possible. that could be another reason. >> joining us on the news line this morning is the moscow correspondent for the "new york times." andrew, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> i don't needle need to tell you what a crazy 24 hours it's been t in the world of the global capital markets but any idea which direction putin is heading in the near term. >> he's in a difficult bind. they need ruble liquidity. the central bank needs to be issuing rubles to banks which will pass it along to

businesses. at the same time because of the decline in the ruble it's been easy to speculate on the dollar. and this is the problem. wavering between a policy of the tightening liquidity and one of loosening it. and what we saw here over the past few days what a somewhat bungled attempt to provide rubles to the national oil company that spooked had market followed by a rate increase which tightened the ruble on monday. everyone monday to tuesday. and then we had a roller coaster today. >> i have a question. i noticed prime minister medvedev met with central bankers. he was the one with the statement about no capital controls. do you think he's being set up as a superficial lamb to be ousted and protect putin or is he somebody mo who might be

coming out ahead in this game? >> i think it's always possible that prime minister med vmedvedv will be dismissed. it is a dangerous time. there are certainly hard liner in the russian government who want to impose capital controls and think enough is done with market mechanisms and it's time to tighten the bolts as day say here. >> what impact are you seeing n the streets from this currency move and what is the impact on the grocery store? >> this evokes a visceral fear in russians. they have seen their currency collapse multiple times in the

past decades. and they even know what to do in these circumstances which is to unload the ruble as quickly as possible. so you see people going to currency exchange points, although the time is late for that. another tactic is to buy durable goods. a appliance stores have been packed with people buying refrigerators or televisions trying to turn their increasingly worthless rubles into something they can at least use. >> how would you say the crisis is being told them? >> well the message has been two fold. one naturally russia's economy depends on oim and oil is falling. the other is that western sanctions have played a role. and the idea is a siege mentality. that this is a fortress of russia and the west is opposing

us. and that all of these hardships you suffer are a result of this undeclared war by the west on russia. >> just what we were talking about a moment ago walter. andrew, thanks for your time. hope to talk to you again in the coming days. we continue to watch this developing story out of pakistan. secretary of state john kerry comparing the brazen murder of more than a hundred school children there. the attackers are dead. can the pakistani taliban claiming responsibility and we'll continue to follow any additional developments in a heartbreaking story. the dow up more than 200 points. that's a 300 point interday swing. and rick, what are you watching today. >> when you think about magic you think sleight of hand and misdirection.

much can be said that central banks have a role on what exactly is going on with the energy markets. i be one thing i can tell you, every commodity route i've ever seen nends a reversal. 53.60 is the low in crude oil futures. this is maybe it. we're going to explore after the break. so was the 100% electric e-golf, and the 45 highway mpg tdi clean diesel. and last but not least, the high performance gti. looks like we're gonna need a bigger podium. the volkswagen golf family. motor trend's 2015 "cars" of the year.

coming up the russian ripple effects. and the crude crush. where is famed investor wilber ross placing his bets? and retailer icon is here exclusively with the word on the winners a winners losers. >> let's get to the cme group and get the santelli exchange. >> in the past i remember taking a really good looking porter house steak and throwing it on the floor. that was years ago. why? it's the raw meat dynamic. whether housing or now in stroll banks, the one thing in anyone in any institution when they try to make capital cheaper forget. and that is the behavior behind it.

because many of the fans e financers and the corporate structure boys are like dogs when they see stuff on sale. --. central banksers went a long way to put a lot of liquidity in the hands of a select few. what's lappe wte. yesterday's close is the lowest. today's interday low is 53.60. we're currently over 57. that has all the ear marks of a potential reversal pattern going on. we talked last week about where the technicians are going to fall in on crude oil front month. my calculations put it at 55.50.

everybody's's learned commodities -- this is about questionable outcomes. misallocation. my magician of the capital. and what it ends up with is central bankers. they put this capital in. where is it going to go? it's going to be put to use in leverage and carry trades. think yen, think euro but it is going to be used in industries that actually have a pulse. in this case it was energy. the retail side is great. the other side, corporate finance and credit not so great. at the end of the day the demand will outlive the volatility and i think things will heal. but the lesson to be learned is misdirecting capital to create demand that isn't real torques

create finance that -- always ends badly. we didn't know the timing and the catalyst. with i know more today. >> cautionary tales with rick santelli. the dow now up 200 points. s&p up 1%. nasdaq up 30.

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market. dow up 200. we were down 9 early in the morning. ti ar t tiacref global marketing strategist. is this feeling like a bottom to you? >> well you know hesitant to call something like that. but the thing to focus on is on one hand you have markets that go into a bit of the irrationality. which explains more what we've seen over the last couple days. if you look at the fundamentals if for u.s., even europe and equities you know the fall in oil is positive. so even with the short-term sell of you offs, it generally feels like a buying opportunity. >> you could get to a point where the low prices of oil smack of instability in the global markets which of course

in and off itself causes volatility. i'm wondering how investors are posturing given the only thing certain at this point is a sustained period of volatility. >> i think there are a couple things going on. pretty significant transition we're going through. ending qe and moving towards higher interest rates. that is not going to be smooth and it is going to be reflected in lot of different asset prices but not only interest rates but currency and oil. so that's the broaders context. and we've been counseling clients to think volatility. >> and the dislocation obviously dan in oil has been stunning it. makes people remember 1998, thailand, poland, russia. do you worry about extreme volatility in emerging markets? >> it certainly has clouded the environment for oil exporters.

it was already a tough environment for them with rising interest rates and a rising dollar. thenl add into the fact that those b countries that are oil exporters not getting the same revenues. but for developed countries like the u.s. and emerging market countries like china it is going to be a benefit for them. so it is a matter of looking amount those who are going to benefit and lose and allocating portfolios consideringly. >> is it your bets that rates rise at all here in the states? >> there is a risk and i thinket. there are different types of inflation. the kind we need to worry about is core inflation as opposed to head line inflation. this fall assuming it persists is just going to be a one off so it is not going lead to a sustained period of deflation.

so really shouldn't change too much of the fed's outlook. we're still looking for a mid year increase in rates. but i think they are going to wait longer than really they should before they start raising rates. >> thank you. >> sure. >> (vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

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there is a look at the dow now up 158 in what continues to be a day of the turns and twists. walter, a couple last words. your head going into 2015, going out on a year where obviously the global markets are changing quickly. >> i think the really big story in question of this coming year is whether the recovery really hits the middle class and allows good jobs and wages. that may not be the question for the markets. but we've seen technology look like it is hollowing out middle class jobs. i'm not sure whether it has.

i think we're going to see there will be more middle class jobs. and if i mayed a one thing, during our discussion i got a story that said time, inc. is now accepting bit coins. >> the revolution begins. >> i don't know about revolution but makes me feel a little bit good. >> let's get to scott wapner and the half. >> carl, thanks very much. welcome to the halftime show. let's meet our starting lineup. stephanie link, josh brown, and pete najarian. game plan today looks like this. a vulture's view. wilber ross. the