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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  December 17, 2014 4:00am-6:01am EST

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and welcome to "worldwide exchange." thank you for tuning in. i'm seema mody. here are your headlines from around the world. russia to defend itsdz currency by selling off its foreign exchange stocks, the move sending the ruble higher while stocks in moscow remain volatile. investors eye the fed statement for a forward guidance on rates. and in corporate news, jeeley shares plunge after it
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issued a profit warning on russia while ge cites sluggish energy markets for lowering its guidance. analysts suggest the $1.2 billion price tag is too high. but the ceo telling cnbc the deal will create a true winner in the imaging therapy space. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> it's another volatile trading session for the russian ruble with the russian currency strengthening sharply versus the u.s. dollar after the country's finance ministry said it has started to sell foreign currency stocks. the ruble has lost over 20% versus the greenback on the week. now, the micex, meanwhile, has fallen into the red after opening initially in the green. the msvi has warned it could reclassify russia to stand alone
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market status if it's excluded from the emerging market index. there could be further pain on the way for russia. the white house says president obama is expected to sign into legislation further sanctions over russia over the role in the u.s. crisis this week. secretary of state john kerry offered some hope for moscow saying the restrictions could be lifted in a matter of days if the kremlin admitted to a cease-fi cease-fire. >> i don't think that what is happening is just related to the sanctions. i think it is much more complicated than that. it has to do with other issues with respect to the russian economy and oil prices, obviously, have also played a significant role in this. there are a lot of combined factors. the sanctions were clearly intended to invite president putin to make a different set of choices.
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>> now, jeff cutler traveled to moscow overnight to cover the crisis overnight. how are the russians responding to the weakening ruble and sell off in russian bonds? >> reporter: as you might imagine, there's a whiff of panic here in moscow. people are going about their day-to-day business, but they are painfully aware that this dramatic decline in the value of the currency is going to impact the way they live their lives. in a country that imports between 40% to 50% of its food, you can imagine that that has got considerably more expensive and the russians' own reciprocal sanctions on food imports from the u.s. and part of western europe have also had some impact. so the way you have seen russians respond here is they have gone out and spent their
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rubles on items, electrical goods, apple products, cars, things they're worried may go up further in value and obviously make it more difficult for them to purchase. and things they also think might help preserve the capital. so there has been a reaction here on the street to the decline. but we've also seen a strong reaction from the russian government to 17%. the finance ministry has said it is getting involved in selling foreign currency toes help support the ruble and we have some central bank intervention to the tune of nearly $2 billion. so there is a very strong reaction here, seema, and as we've seen, the ruble has bounced back somewhat from that 72 level to the dollar that we hit already in the session
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today. the question is, really, whether they can do enough at this stage to turn the ruble trend around. well, the economy minister was asked the question after that emergency cabinet meeting late yesterday what exactly are their intentions. let's listen to what he said. >> translator: of course, everything we've been talking about with the stabilization of the ruble, we believe the ruble's exchange rate doesn't correspond with the fundamental macroeconomic development. we see how it breaks away from the oil price movement. this calculation and expectation of market participants. >> and i just want to throw forward a little bit here. it will be fascinating, seema, to watch how the various markets perform through the day. not least direct travel for the ruble, but obviously the micex, as well.
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the russian stock market. because tomorrow we have president putin's annual press conference and there is a lot of anticipation that the president may weigh into this economic story. back to you. >> absolutely. we will be watching to see what putin has to say so much. for now, geoff cutmore, thank you for that report. let's get market reaction from rob parnell from ing. rob, when looking at russia, there are multi.layers of growth catalyst. the free fall in the russian ruble. it might be very hard to be on the bullish side of this trade right now. >> i'm naturally bearish on everything usually. i think what occurs to me, if you look at the ruble right now, this doesn't appear to be a currency which is reliant on faith in people to hold it and exchange it because of the phases as geoff was talking
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about earlier, but rather have done some good and hold the ruble right now. that tells you something about a bullish or a bearish future at the moment. and they seem pretty bearish. >> and the last time russia used dramatic measures to support the currency was in 1998. but it didn't work then. why should we think it will work this time? >> i think the interesting thing about capital controls, for example, we've just seen them intervening with fx reserves. that was the problem yesterday. now we've got that fx interventi intervention, the ruble is a little stronger. how long does that last? occasions where the central bank tries to -- on the currency. how many days, how many hours? i don't know. >> because the central bank has used about $70 billion to support the currency, that hasn't worked. will this interest rate hike provide spart to the currency
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inspect that's what investors are waiting to see. >> it's an open question, really, and it relies on people's faith and sentiment at the moment. more bullishment. i wouldn't be putting lots of money on this being sustained over the next couple of days. >> and another question is is the collapse of the ruble the most recent battle of what could be a larger emerging market crisis in 2015? what do you think about that? >> well, it is beginning to look like that. there was a time when not very long ago when they were very much a recent story, but it is beginning to spill into emerging market currencies. it is beginning to get hold at the moment. >> so if russia collapses, what is the next way to perhaps go next? >> well, there are a bunch of countries out there at the top of everybody's list. anyone who is squeaky clean in the em world is going to attract some negative sentiment from markets. >> rob, we're going to leave
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tlit. chief national economist. could the ruble spill over into a broader market crisis as i just asked rob in the russian financial crisis of 1998? head to our website to find out more on cnbc.com. and let's take a look at the european heat map. the stoxx europe 600 right now trading relatively in negative territory. remember yesterday we did see a late stage rally in european stocks. the stoxx europe 600 ending up by around 2%. the rebound that we saw in the price of oil right now diving into the european markets, though, it is a negative trading day. some of that perhaps being in reaction to what is taking place in russia. of course, oil prices, while they did rebound yesterday, still down over 40% since june
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of 2014. today, the eurozone inflation number will come out. that will be very important, especially as we assess whether mario draghi will unveil sovereign bond buying perhaps in early 2015. expectations are for 0.3%. that's the expectation for inflation across the eurozone. right now we're looking at the ftse 100 trading down. points. the bank of england minutes due in about half an hour's time. the xetra dax down 93 points, the cac 40 down 35 and a triple digits decline for the italian markets. let's talk about the currency space. that has been a focal point for investors, especially when taking a look at the ruble which is right down here. right now, trading at the u.s. dollar weakening against the ruble. so the ruble gaining a little bit of steam against the u.s. dollar. of course, it was a volatile
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trade for the russian ruble. let's take a look at the u.s. dollar versus the yen. right now, trading at 117. gaining a little bit of steam. and the euro trading at 1 is.2466, weakening against the u.s. dollar ahead of that important inflation read. let's check in on markets in asia with sam in singapore with a look at how markets are responding there. sam, over to you. >> thanks, seema. a bit of an awakening in asia today. mostly positive momentum. it feels like a bit of an uneasy -- as to what's taking place in the oil market. what's taking place, of course, with russia. you're looking at the japanese markets which is up 0.4% coming off that 6 1/2 week low. we have some trade data coming through on that end. exports rising almost 6% on the month of december. we have 29 successive trade deficits. that being said, this deficit was a third lower than this time
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last year. so that, of course b, is being helped by a lower oil import and that is expected to continue. you're looking at the russian effect, how that is being felt in asia today. you're looking at 8%. russia, that is around a quarter of the company's profits. hong kong's markets, jeeley auto, nose dive at 17%. they came through with a profit warning today profits could dip back 50% as they see exports from russia dropping, that's a key export market, key overseas markets. lastly, we're seeing some of a rebound in emerging markets. keep in mind, this market 8.5% in the last sessions, so recouping some of those lows. back to you in london. and coming up after this break with a first round of presidential elections, kicking
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off in greece, will athens be forced into a snap election? our own julia chatterley joining us live on the ground after this break.
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there is broad consensus for action according to pierre. but the fascination with qe is a bit naive amid increasing speculation the central bank will introduce an asset purchase program early next year. in the u.s., the fed is looking set to continue down a die verging path as it announces its policy decision later today. could the recent plunge in crude oil throw a banner in the works and put off the fomc's first hike? steve liesman has the results of cnbc's latest fed survey. >> wall street see tess federal reserve reacting to lower inflation and concerns about global economic weakness not by delaying rate hikes, but by hiking rates more slowly. respondents to the december fed survey still see the first hikes
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coming in july 2016. that will be the first hike in eight years. two-thirds of respondents expect the fed to remove the phrase considerable time from the policy statement tomorrow. a move the fed has to make in order to hike rates this coming month. the fed funds rate is now seen below 2% at the end of 2016. fed chair janet yellen are now seen taking all the way until the first quarter of 2018 to get to their endpoint rate, a very low 3.2%. a tenth below what the market previously thought. but these forecasts for lower rates come amid rising optimism for the economy. the chance of recession has fallen in the lowest level in the history of the survey. growth has estimated to pick up in 2015. lower oil prices should add more to that growth while reducing inflation. the outlook for inflation looks
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to be the real driver. that and european economic weakness which is now seen as the biggest threat to the u.s. economy. although there's been agreement on the path for fed policy, listening carefully to janet yellen at her press conference tomorrow for any hint plunging oil prices and global economic could alter the fed's course. back to you guys. >> a lot for the fed to react to this in today's policy decision. let's talk about it. janet yellen just got a whole lot tougher, didn't it, given the drop in the price of oil. given the normalization of rates in the u.s. do you think she was forecasting this type of volatility in russia's markets? >> her job and my job because i have to forecast what she's going to do. yeah, it's very hard. lots of things to consider right now. in the past, the fed has taken a parochial inward looking view on what to do with policy.
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really, she has to be looking outside u.s. borders right now, what's going on in russia, what's going on with oil, what's happening in financial markets, the stock market, lots of things to control right now, not just the payroll number. >> let's talk about how yellen will perhaps address each of those factors, starting with the price of oil. will it slow down inflation even more, which is below the fed's target of 2%? >> it will. it's pretty much in the bag. we get inflation data later today. that should drop to 1.5%, 1.4%, something like that. that is just the beginning. at the moment, the support of gasoline prices are seeing adjustment taking place this year. >> how are people predicting the fed will perhaps signal that it will raise rates in 2015 when inflation is well below its target? the fed has a dual mandate. it needs acceleration in growth. >> it's difficult. i can't quite spare that. by the time you get into the third and second quarter next
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year, inflation could be down around 0.5% or even closer to zero. i don't think its means that they can't do it. it's a measure of what's background really happening. but they've been telling people for years, 1% is the threshold for deflation risk. below that, we will be think more about easing and tightening. it's tough. >> where do you see the u.s. inflation rate headed in 2015 as the price of oil continues to drop right here? >> it will drop to somewhere around zero to 0.5% for a period. as you push through the year, it starts to move up a little bit. towards the end of the year, it starts to move up quite sharply. so it's going to be all over the place. at times, it will be lewd krusly
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low. other times, it will be quite rapidly. >> deflation is a big threat to the eurozone, but how big of a threat is it to the u.s.? >> normally you would assume and i think even draghi is wrong on this, but you would assume a fall in oil is a good thing. people talk about it being equivalent to a tax cut. i think that's generally right. it's worth bearing in mind, the u.s. is a huge economy these days. backing up to its october numbers, it was the biggest producer of oil on the country. the biggest producers of oil products, the biggest use for national gas. so the support in these energy prices is not unambiguously positive for the u.s. as people look at this as a temporary fall. they're not going to go out and spend it. so that remains to be seen, as well. >> should we expect the fed and janet yellen to address the recent volatility in russia? >> i don't know whether she'll explicitly address it in her press briefing later on or
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whether she'll hint about it. as we talked about earlier, this isn't just russia any more. it's beginning to become more of a generalized problem. >> emerging markets slowdown. >> exactly. beginning to see all the -- anything in latin america. a little bit closer in washington perhaps than out in asia. so that may be something to get to yellen thinking about the right course of action, as well. >> of course, this is the last policy meeting of the year. a lot of focus on what janet yellen has to say. especially with macro weakness in europe and how that plays out into a potential rate hike in 2015. rob carnell, a pleasure. now on to greece, will greece leave the eurozone? that could depend on the outcome of the selections. now, the greek ruling coalition is looking for a strong backing in the first round of presidential elections today. but remember, this snap election is hitting two months ahead of schedule with the anti-austerity
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party. julia live in athens with the latest. julia, over to you. >> thanks, seema. as you rightly said, this is a confidence vote on the future of the coalition government wrapped up in the packaging of what is likely to be three rounds of presidential elections to try and vote in the government candidates. the overwhelming majority of people that i've spoken to here this morning and overnight believes that the prime minister is not going to be successful. he won't get the number of votes he needs and ultimately will see snap elections in january. as you say, the radical left party is likely from some kind of coalition. the other big concern that i'm hearing here is the qe in europe could have a different effect on greece and some of the other countries. if you look at what happened in the markets last week, the spread to the other countries are very well contained and greece is widening. it looks like greece, the risk
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is to get to power, messes up the negotiations of the troika, could they ultimately be let go and greece has to deal with this themselves? my next guest is miranda. what do you think the risk is here of being allowed to leave the eurozone if the negotiation of the next government and the troika go battling? >> any new government would have to follow the troika in order to maintain access to financing from the imf and the esm. and also to regain eventually market access. failing this, greece will default, you know, the bond coming up in july and august and greece does not have the funding to cover those. >> so basically, the biggest at this stage, what it's looking like is we could end up having snap elections in january. do you expect to see a u-turn because right now the talks that he makes here is very
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aggressive. he walks away from any kind of a bailout deal. >> yes, indeed. opinion to a series of led coalition, we don't know who they would form a coalition with, but most probably to be with a more modern party, the river, perhaps. that would force to moderate the policies. >> the bottom line here is greece is leaving the program far too early and rather than be allowed to go out and extend the credit lines, it's looking very risk as far as investors in the market are concerned trying to go out there on its own like ireland and portugal did. >> yes, greece requested an extension of the program in late 2012 which is the result of the primary circle of target of 4.5% of gdp would move forward from
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2014 to 2016. so greece and investment was not going to be completely for 2016 and it was far too premature to have called for an early exit because greece was not ready for it. >> unfortunately felt necessary. miranda, great to chat with you this morning. they're not ready to extend the bailout program. we need a national unity party in this government. >> thank you so much, julia, for that interview. still to come on this show, more drama in russia. what does it mean for u.s. and european corporates with exposure to the volatile ruble? that's coming up next. g?góéj÷ç÷ç
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global markets remain on edge after corporate guidance. a proovt warning on russia while general electric cites sluggish energy markets for lowering its guidance. analyst suggest a $1.2
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billion price add for homes is too high, but the ceo tells cnbc the deal will create a true winner in the energy space. russia to slam its currency by selling off its foreign exchange stock, but the ruble continues to ride a roller coaster as stocks in moscow remain volatile. and we're just getting the boe minutes right now. taking a look at what the vote was going to be, it looks like boe december minutes coming in at 72 in favor of a boe rate action. so that has not changed from last month. again, we're looking at sterling right now, weakening against the u.s. dollar right now at 15722.getting other commentary from the bank of england, the possible fall in oil prices, the
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boe says, has contributed to the perception that rate rises would come in sooner than expected. the bank of england policymakers focusing heavily on the falling price of oil, how that will impact inflation, which is still below the central bank target of 2%. minutes of the boe monetary policy committee released today, the jury thought this warranted keeping interest rates on hold at a record level of 0.2%. it is continued to argue the target is well below the high exchange rate and lower material prices. let's get market reaction from adam cole, who i believe is with us. so the mpc vote, 7-2, was that what you were expecting, adam? >> yes, it was. and i think it will stay that way for a while now, the next stumbling block for uk policies,
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the wage negotiations which get under way around the turn of the calendar year and again at the turn of the financial year. so the early months of next year will really be critical as to whether we see a wage growth is really picking up. then i think the interest rate debate moves on in the uk. >> interestingly enough, we take a look at the uk in comparison to its peers in europe, it is seen as a bright spot. we're seen as an acceleration in job growth. housing has been relatively strong. is inflation the only reason to keep rates low? >> i think it's certainly facilitates keeping rates low, even though growth is coming in clearly still above trend. and the low inflation background almost reveals that there is spare capacity to absorb the growth at the time being. so i think where the mpc is looking the lead indicator is inflation and in particular the labor market. that is where we'll see some evidence that inflation pressure is picking up on the horizon relevant to policy i.e. eight to
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two years down the road. >> just yesterday, britain inflation falling to a 12-year low of 1.0%. is that predicated on the drop in the price of oil or is there more to that story? >> that was the principal driver and we saw already, i think, some second round effect from lower costs. broadening out into the lower inflation picture. even then, i think the mpc is likely to see that as a relatively transitory effect. and the real longer term drivers of inflation are on the kind of horizon that they're looking to influence policy are much more domestically generated from the labor market in particular. >> boe governor mark carney said on tuesday that the fall in oil prices was a, quote, unambiguously net positive for the uk economy. do you agree with that? >> from an activity perspective, yes, i think that's the case. generally speaking, the fall in the oil price will be positive for net oil consumers and
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negative for net oil producers and from that perspective, it will generally tend to support activity going forward from here. as i say, the impact on prices, back into inflation expectations and lower wage growth will likely be fairley transitory. so i think the longer term implications are positive for the year, yes, indeed. take a look at the unemployment number coming in at 6%. a drop in 63,000 jobs in the month of october. but yet wage growth continues to be a source of concern for investors. when do you think we'll see a meaningful increase in wage growth, adam? >> well, if we're going to, it will come through at the period where the greatest concentration of wage and that is typically in january. then again in april at the beginning respectively of the calendar year and the fiscal year. and i think the hawks on the mpc will retreat or they will be joined by more hawks if we see meaningful pace picking up those key points in the negotiation calendar.
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so for the moment, i think they're on a back burner on the wage data into the early month of next year. they will be key in that respect. that could be a game changer if we see a meaningful rise in wage growth. that is perhaps result in more members becoming more hawkish than dovish? >> that we think is the case, yes, indeed. and the market having taken out most of the rate hikes to be discounted for next year. i think it doesn't take much in terms of an acceleration in wage growth for the rate story at least to become a little bit more positive for sterling. >> and, of course, the uk and the u.s., two developed economies have been seen as the two bright spots when looking at global markets. another important day for the u.s. with the fed policy decision coming today. the fed wrapping up its final policy meeting of the year with the economic forecast expected at the o'clock p.m. eastern. that's, of course, followed by janet yellen's news conference at 2:30 p.m. most fed watchesers expect the central bank to drop its pledge to keep rates low for a
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considerable time. some think the central bank may keep that rate to reassure markets that the initial rate hike is still at least six months away. adam, what was your thoughts? do you think they will remove that important phrase? >> we do, yes. but i would agree with your comment a moment ago, that expectation is very widespread and we seem to be going to the fomc meeting with the market priced and losing the considerable time frame. if anything, we see the risk in the market which is very long the dollar, we think, still. the risk being that if they replace it with something which is perceived to water the statement down rather than nullify it completely, then the risk is that we see some of the currencies that the market is running the large sport positions in waging higher from here. so our expectation is generally that we might see some disappointments in the overall balance of the statement from a position of the market being very bullish. >> that definitely seems to be
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an internal debate on whether the fed will in fact signal that it will raise rates in 2015, especially when the decline in oil prices has taken center stage and a concern of how that will impact the rate of inflation. adam cole, we're going to leave it there. i know you'll be watching janet yellen and what she has to say. for now, thank you for your time. >> thank you. i want to get you some headlines coming out right now. eu officials agreeing to tighten attention sanctions on crimea in time for the eu leader summit which has been taking place 18th to 19th of december. the new sanctions are reportedly going to include forbidding eu firms from investing in the region and from prohibiting the trade of eu oil and gas exploration technologies. on another note, kremlin aid is saying only word nated action of government and central bank can help the ruble. of course, that's been another big concern for investors is the
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free fall that we have been seeing in the russian ruble. the kremlin saying the impact of central bank action depends on the price of oil and how it moves given that russia's government relies 50% of its revenue comes from oil services. a major blow to the economy. the russian central bank investigating a possible manipulation of fx markets. geoff cutmore is live in moscow. how are you reading and digesting these headlines, geoff? >> this always tends to happen when central banks and finance ministeres and governments become uncomfortable with the direction their currencies are taking and the pace at which
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they're moving. perhaps there has been some activity that the central bank would consider inappropriate. too hard to tell at this point. but generally, you hear central banks complain when they're unhappy with the direction of markets are taking. so let's part that one for a moment there. in terms of coordinated action, clearly, we had a meeting yesterday of the government, an emergency cabinet meeting that included the economy mipster, the finance minister, the central bank governor and the prime minister. and is we are seeing some coordinated action here. we saw nearly 2 billion worth of -- $2 billion worth of intervention from the central bank and the finance ministry has told us that it is going to get into the market and sell currencies. and it will do so as long as it feels it was necessary to turn this ruble rate around. so yes, coordination is happening. and the third flash that you told us about, the eu talking about another round of sanctions here. well, that is interesting
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because we know that president obama is sitting on a piece of paper at the moment that he will probably sign, which will lead off another round of sanctions from the united states which in part could lead to the supply of lethal arms to the ukrainians fighting in the east. and so perhaps not a surprise to hear that the eu is also discussing sanctions at this point. but there will be those in the financial markets who will just say, well, just wait a moment here. how concerned do we need to be that another round of sanctions actually brings russia economically to its knees? it's one thing to pressure on the economy and this country to find get president putin and others in power here to change their behavior towards ukraine. but do they want a full blown
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crisis in russia the ruble in free fall and an economy that is in serious trouble. that is something maybe that just the policymakers need to ask themselves about. this economy is still very, very integrated in the broader european economy and the global economy. so there would be ramifications of that if it happens. back to you, seema. geoff cutmore, a fast moving story. i have a feeling this is going to continue throughout the day. thank you for bringing us those headlines as well as reaction live from moscow. a number of knock on effects from the plummeting ruble and falling oil prices. take a look at chinese carmaker geely automobile. it's trading sharply lower after it said 2014 profit will fall 50 fers from last year. experts in foreign exchange losses from russia. another story, general electric sees profits being pressured next year but its sluggish oil
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business at the company's annual investor day on tuesday. executives said they expect profits from aviation, power and water and other industrial unit toes rise 10% in 2015. revenue from oil and gas is expected to fall. ge shares fell about 0.5% in after hours trade. right now, trading just about flat in frankfurt. keep in mind, over the past three months, it is down just about 2%. now, ge's ceo jeff immelt will be on "squawk on the street" today in an exclusive interview coming up at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. switching focus to france, in paris, stephane spoke to the ceo of france's largest bank societe generale and asked about his concerns around geopolitical risk webs particularly in russia. here is what he had to say. >> as well as there had been, for example, who knows and it's been predicted, if monetary
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policies were different from expectations, in this market, there is, again, sometimes a lack of liquidity. who knows, you can have price changes which could be -- and i would say more around that overall i think that the environment is around some progress, but no miracles. >> are you concerned about the situation in russia? are you confident that it may improve during the next year? >> this is really still my conviction. if you look at the situation in ukraine, the economic situation, the economic situation in russia, but the bank in europe, to find an agreement. and my conviction that there is -- in the surpassed to find the particular solution for that situati
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situation. i think we avoid each of the regions too much of this price. >> so not the scenario? >> not my central scenario, as i've said. again, europe, russia and europe, have a solution. >> are you concerned that societe generale remains committed to russia and europe? >> yes. russia is 3% and in europe in russia and it's one of the best in the market and strongest countries in europe. now, in russia, we look at the long-term. we see that on the ground. some of our clients in
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particular, for example, which request us some local finances. with more local financing of the economy, we of course monitor our risk and we move this is -- they've been doing every operation by france to reduce the -- by the government. >> now, other companies responding to the volatility that we're seeing in russia and the ruble, in fact, apple has halted online sales in russia due to the ruble volatility. the tek giant issued a statement overnight saying sales would be unavailable due so a review of pricing. get the full story on cnbc.com. and sticking with tech, today we did get announcement from buy dbaidu that it is buyig a stake in uber. the company did not disclose how big of a stake baidu is taking.
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many times seeing as a google xet ir. on the sidelines, uber's ceo has been speaking on the side lines at the announcement of the baidu tie- tie-up. he said uber wants understanding of how broad its operations are and uber is seeking to make rides more safe that perhaps in response to india's government banning uber after a driver of uber was accused of raping a passenger. let's move on to japan, another focal point for investors. trade deficit shrank 30% in november from the previous month thanks to growing exports and plunging oil prices. all markets responding to the price of oil. we have that story live from tokyo. >> yes. it was the 29th straight month in the red for japanese trade, which is the longest period on
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record with comparable data from 35 years ago. the government figures released today show that japanese exports were up nearly 5% rising for the third straight month. demand for electronic components used in smartphones and tablets increase in china, singapore and other asian regions. the weaker yen was a plus for exporters. mean wile, imports were down for the first time in three months, despite the weaker yen making purchases abroad more expensive and the largest factor was the falling oil price with the cost of imported oil hit ago four-year low. even so, the total trade deficit this year up november has reached over 12 trillion yen, surpassing the annual deficit for 2013 which has been the largest on record. and that's all from the nikkei. back to you. >> makiko, thank you so much. still to come on the show, we get all the details from paris as alstrom confirmed they were in talks with the u.s.
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justice to settle a federal bribery case.
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reuters is reportsing that
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china central bank is looking to add short-term cash to banks through liquidity. the price interest rate hike in november, now the central bank perhaps looking at helping its banks to providing that short-term cash to some banks. we're learning according to reuters that the central bank has renewed center banks medium term lending facilities that have expired. we'll continue to keep you up to date on that story and how it's impacting asian markets. but a story in france catching our attention, french engineering company alstom has confirmed it's in talks with the u.s. department of justice to settle a bribery case in a deal was reported $700 million. stephane is live in paris with the details. stephane. >> good morning, seema. this morning, the negotiations with the u.s. department of justice have declined to give any indication about what could come next in a statement. the company states that further information will be disclosed in due course. according to belgium, the french engineering group $700 million
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could be paid to settle a bribery probe. a deal could be announced very soon, probably at the beginning of next week, according to this report. and a settlement of that size would be the largest one ever between the doj and a private company for bribery case. this would handle a criminal investigation on a contract that alstom signed in indonesia for the construction of a power plant on the island of sumatra. it will settle legal costs of 542 million euros have been set aside so far on these discussions as ge agreed to buy most of the power business for 12.4 billion euros. by the way, seema, the shareholders of alstom will meet at the end of this week to vote on this. >> stephane, thank you so much. another big story, another
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corporate story, philips is slumping at the bottom of the stoxx 600 after the group agreed to buy volcano for $1.2 billion, including debt. >> philips is the market leader in what's called the lab. so we do the live imaging of the body giving the doctor basically eyes inside the body. we can do the 3d rendering of everything in your body. and volcano is the market leader in this smart catheters that are these tubular wires that go through your arteries or your heart or other place necessary your body to do the intervention. so we are combining two market leaders to create a true winner in the image guide ed therapy space. there are a lot of sin ter guys in this deal that make it very compelling. >> i also want to point to your
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attention in the price of oil. the oil the break a four-day losing streak. it's down about 26% over the past month. right now, brent crude trading just below $60 a barrel, down about 1%. light crude at $54.98. so in case you thought yesterday was a signal that oil prices had found a bottom, you would have been incorrect because right now we are looking at oil prices continuing its slide. and global markets have been responding. middle eastern markets are recovering, despite that sharp sell-off in recent days hike in fears over prolonged oil weakness. we have been seeing significant losses in those markets over the past couple of days. one likely win frer lower crude prices in the region are airlines. since carriers enjoy, of course, lower fuel costs. cnbc's uyusef caught up with th emirates airline president and asked what the impact in drop on crude was having in the
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industry's bottom line. >> you see the industry beginning to report very healthy profits. those carriers like qantas and the american carriers that have always had cheaper oil prices than we've had anyway, because they don't have the add-ones that we face, plus the fact that they are dollar based allows them to make a lot more money than they have in the past. our particular problem, on the one hand is we've seen significant fall in oil and long may it last, but at the same time, the dollar has strengthened. and a lot of the currencies that we own our money and generate our money is in currencies that are, of course, falling against the dollar. >> gave that you are in the region that is still heavily dependent on oil revenues, are you not concerned that an joefly sharp fall in oil prices would effect investment sentiment and demand? >> short-term, yes. long-term? no. one of the biggest single problems we've had in the global economy is the hydro carbons has
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been artificially ip flated. when you're talking about $110, $120 a barrel in the past, there's no resemble ambulance in the cost to production, the cost to distribution and what the fair and reasonable price was. if some companies built in the volatility knowing the volatility, knowing that a lot of what you see today in the pricing bears no resemblance to what the other ground price was to the producers and what they sold on to the club. now, after that, you see a $70 price going up to 110. where did the $40 go? who controlled it? we used to say no, we saw it on the traders. i always said realistic price of oil out of ground $70. should never, ever have been above that. >> that was the president of emirates airlines and getting
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his take on how the price of oil is impacting his business. a look at u.s. futures after what was a volatile day of trade. in fact, both the s&p and the dow settled at their lowest levels since late october. right now, futures indicating a higher open. in fact, the dow jones industrial indicating a 108-point gain in premarket trades. yesterday, markets are up in premarket, but then we saw a drastic move to the downside as concerns over russia and oil weighed on investor sentiment. u.s. markets, of course, have been on a virtual roller coaster ride over the past couple of days ahead of christmas, but could santa still sleep in to save the day? we're going to discuss that with a round of panel experts, coming up. xkç
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it's 5:00 a.m. on the east coast. if you're just waking up, thank you for joining us on "worldwide exchange." here are your headlines from around the world. the russian ruble on a roller coaster ride even after the finance ministry steps in to defend the currency. this as president obama vowels to sign new sanctions by the end of the week. global markets remain on edge after a choppy session on wall street as investors eye a statement on forward guidance on rate. general electric profits may be pressured by the drop in oil
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prices. ge's ceo jeff immelt will be on cnbc in an exclusive interview live later today. phillips shares in europe dp after snapping up volcano for $1.2 billion. but the ceo telts cnbc the deal will create a true winner. and we're just getting a read on inflation in the euro scope. the expectation was for a 073% increase in inflation in the month of november year over year. and it has met analyst expectations. the eurozone november cpi coming in at 0.3% year over year. but a contraction month over month. negative. 0.2% drop in cpi in inflation.
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november versus the month of october. how are markets responding? right now, the euro is trading at 1.2458. very close to session lows against the u.s. dollar. remember, last time around, five countries in the eurozone were experiencing deflation at the 12-month drop in consumer prices. that will be on top of mario draghi's mind. this strengthens the case for sovereign buying in early 2015. how are markets responding to that 0.3% jump in inflation? year over year, they are trading lower. the ftse 100 trading down around 44 points. the xetra dax do you know about 85 points. in france, we're looking at a 26-point decline in italy. a big underperformer today. 238 points to the down side or a 1.3% decline for italy. of course, russia, the drama
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continues there. that's one of the reasons we've been seeing markets move to the downside. taking a look at u.s. futures, it's another volatile session. right now, the dow indicate ago higher move by around 70 points. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq also indicating a higher open. keep in mind, both the s&p and the dow settled at its lowest level since october. oil breaking a four-day moving streak, but it's still down about 26% over the last month alone. so russia and the price of oil continue to dominate discussion about something we will discuss over the next hour, how to strayed your portfolio, how to make money given the volatility we're seeing in global markets. the ruble, it's been another volatile session with the russian currency losing gains after the country's finance ministry said it had begun selling foreign currency stock. on the week, the ruble has lost over 20% versus the greenback. let's talk about the russian markets. the micex has fallen into the
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red after opening those sessions in positive territory. and there could be further pain on the way for russia. the white house says president obama is expected to sign into legislation further sanctions against russia over its role in the ukraine crisis this week. but speaking in london, secretary of state john kerry offered some hope for moscow saying the restrictions could be lifted in a matter of days if the kremlin committed to the agreed cease-fire. now, speaking to cnbc, billionaire wilbur ross says his experience of russia deterred him from investing there. here is what he had to say. >> to the board of the u.s. russia investment fund by president clinton some years ago. and the experiences there convinced me that it is too tricky a place for me to invest in. we like places where there's some semester brans of the rule of law. russia seems to be much more the
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rule of -- the law of the rule. >> global investors responding to the volatility in russian markets. we are expecting russian president putin to speak tomorrow and we're expecting perhaps some type of clarity on what took place over the past couple of days. russian prime minister medvedev will hold a discussion with the central bank. the rapid fall, of course, in the ruble and the stocks on the moscow exchange means even more pain for investors. let's get out to geoff cutmore who is live in moscow. geoff. >> yes, seema. it's interesting, isn't it, that now we have the prime minister beginning to talk to leading energy players here. and perhaps no surprise because if president obama run these latest sanctions bill, that effectively targets the energy
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sector as well as containing soft line that's allow him to go ahead and provide aide to ukraine. the russian authorities i think are trying very hard now to try and get ahead of this rapid decline we've seen in the value of the russian currency at 3% across this week so far. and only on wednesday, which is why we had an emergency cabinet meeting late yesterday. the prime minister was there, the finance minister, the economic minister and the central bank governor. the markets were taken by surprise with that dramatic interest rate hike. 17% now the deposit rate to try and tempt russians to keep their money at home in rubles. what we've seen, though, is limited impact from all of these measures. and the finance ministry this morning putting 7 billion on the table saying we can go into the
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market into and try and turn around the currency. we know the central bank, as well, put almost 2 billion into the markets to do the same thing. so at the moment, difficult to see ta they're really getting a great deal of traction with the intervention and with the statements that are coming into the market at this point. and as you pointed out, president putin gives his annual press conference tomorrow and i think many things now will hinge on exactly what he says in that press conference, not least whether we get further eu and u.s. sanctions imposed this week and whether markets start to settle around this $68 to $70 to the ruble level and whether we get some rebound in russian equity markets right now. back to you. >> geoff cutmore, thank you so much. of course, russia, one of the
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reasons we saw a lot of volatility in the u.s. markets, a wild ride for the dow. in fact, the dow moving 700 points in yesterday's trade from down 99 points to up 247 then from up 247 to down 112 at the end of the day. the last time the dow made this double-triple back to back was in november 2008. traders think a day in which the dow was up double digits and down tripping digits, that is quite rare. this is being seen as a catalyst and the volatility could continue. we are looking at the vix above 25 indicating there is a certain level of fear in this market. of course, our attention now turns to the fed. could the recent fund in oil prices delay the fed's interest rate hike? here is steve liesman's latest fed survey. >> the federal reserve reacting to lower inflation as concerns about global economic weakness not by delaying rate hikes, but by hiking rates more slowly.
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respondents to the december cnbc fed survey still see the first rate hike coming in july 2015. that would be the first hike in eight years. but they see the fed tightening less and taking longer to get to the end of the cycle. two-thirds of respondents expect the fed to remove the phrase "control time" from the policy statement tomorrow, a move the fed has to make in order to hike rates this coming month. as fed chair janet yellen and the federal market committee are now seen taking all the way until the first quarter of 2018 to get to their endpoint, a very low 3.2%. a tenth below what the market previously thought. but these forecasts for lower rates come amid rising optimism for the u.s. economy. it has fallen to the lowest level in the history of the survey. growth is estimated to pick up in 2015. all the way to 3%. from 2.4% this year.
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the lower oil prices should add more to that growth while reducing inflation. the outlook for inflation looks to be the real driver. that and european economic weakness, which is now seen as the biggest threat to the u.s. economy. although there's been agreement on the path for fed policy, listening closely to fed chair janet yellen at her press conference for any hint that oil prices and global economic weakness could alter the federal reserve's course. back to you guys. joining us now on the phone from new york is dennis gartman, founder of the gartman letter and hugh gus. thank you for joining us, gentlemen. dennit gartman, how do you think the fed will interpret the drop in the price of oil? will yellen simply say, hey, the drop in the price of oil is good for the consumer or do you think she will mention the risk of the global growth story?
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>> i think quite honestly, seema, i will take the easy way out and say dr. yellen and dr. fisher will look at both sides and say, yes, inflagdz is low. that will keep us from -- that will allow us to venture towards further ease. however, the unemployment rate and the employment rates are moving in our favor. that will favor us moving towards higher rates. on balance, we will do nothing. i think that's the proper course of action. they will remove the language that everybody talks about about too long for low. otherwise, are they going to make any changes whatsoever? no, none whatsoever. it is nicely pleasantly balanced. >> where do you see oil prices moving from here, dennis? it will break the oil streak yesterday, but once again, we are seeing oil prices move lower in today's trade. have we found a bottom yet? >> i'm not sure we have, to be honest, seema. i've been bearish in crude oil for any period of time. fracking, the breaking up of -- or the breakdown for lack of a
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better term of opec. the continued expansion on the part of oil production here in the united states. so on balance, the trend is till from the upper left to the lower right. but it is interesting for the first time in months we actually began to see what i call the term structure in the futures markets moving modestly bullishly. that's the first time in a long period of time. i continue to think that prices will head lower until the first time in weeks i'm not overtly pearish in crude oil. i'm simply modestly bearish of crude oil. >> one trader calling it like catching a falling knife. do you think the velocity in the price action in oil has been directly impacting risk appetite? >> oil tied up, we're in december. we've had a range of -- we're coming past the end of quantitative easing in the united states. towards talking about if and when we get an eventual rate rise, we're expecting commodity prices at incredibly high levels and now they're coming back.
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the low in emerging market currencies from levels from which they're coming back. all of that is playing out with volatility. quantitative easing is back with a vengeance. and all of these things are interrelated. from here, you know, we're trying to find out, we've got a long period of time before supply starts to fall off and, in the meantime, we've got sharper markets, liquid markets, and i think that echos what you see in other markets for the next few months. >> and all eyes on the fed. the fed has a mandate. are we getting ahead of otherwise by saying a rate hike could come in 2015 when inflation is well below the fed target? >> i seem to have side bets with far more people that i can afford about that. i think you need to raise rates when the economy is healthy enough to do so and to allow you room to cut them in the next session.
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the whole problem with this rate cycle is we're going to have rates way too log low going into the next term to be able to react. but yes, the temptation to err on the side of lower rates for longer as stated in 2015 is well understood and it's a major -- >> and, of course, if history is a guide, stocks could, perhaps, move higher at the end of today. the s&p 500 on average has gained about 0.35% on fed days. how are you trading the fed policy decision? >> i am as neutral as i can possibly be relative to the stock markets, seema. i own a few shares of appearappr example, and a couple of other things. i need a short call against them or i have derivatives position against them to make my market position terribly, terribly neutral. >> let's talk about oil. what's your outlook?
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we have been seeing gold shares get a bid over the past couple of days. >> seema, i've been bullish of gold in the yen denominated terms for two years. that's proven to be a wise trade. gold in dollar terms, i have absolutely no opinion about. i could make a case for gold to go higher. i can make the case for gold to go lower. but for gold in the end denominated terms, it has been going from the lower left to the upper right as the japanese monetary authorities continue to err on the side of expansionary policies and that is exactly what they should be doing. so i like gold as far as the yen is concerned. i could care less about gold in dollar terms. >> and the dollar itself, dennis, at these levels? >> i think if you have to do something in the dollar, one would tend to be a buyer of it. if you're going to buy the dollar index, that's probably the easiest way to go about it. if you want to be bullish in the dollar, i think the yen is still the one that you'll suffer the most. and i can see political circumstances in europe weighing heavily upon the euro.
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if you made me take a position in the euro, i would tend to sell it political uncertainty in europe is being seen as one of the biggest headwinds confronting markets in 2015. dennis gartman, founder of the gartman letter, thank you for your time. a big day for markets in russia continues to be a focal point. other corporate news is getting our attention. american apparel finally parts ways with its ceo and founder after a scandal hit break-up. we'll give you that full story, coming up. stamps.com is the best.
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here are your headlines on "worldwide exchange." the ruble roller coaster ride continues as president obama gets set to approve fresh sanctions on moscow. will they or won't they considerable time from guidance? that is the question as we count down to the fomc meeting. and general electric feels the pinch in lower oil, warning profits could take a hit. jeff im met speaks to cnbc exclusively later today. a lot of the economic data to watch in addition to that fed policy decision, let's get you a rundown of what to watch in the november cpi is out at 8:30 a.m.
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eastern. consumer prices are forecast to slip slightly last month, although they could inch up when you slip out food and energy. now, in terms of earnings, fedex and general mills, the results before the opening bell, a tech giant oracle out after the close. top stories at this hour, philips, something at the bottom of the stoxx 600 index after they struck a deal to buy volcano for $1.2 billion including debt. now, earlier, the company's ceo spoke to cnbc first and touted the benefits of the deal. philips is the market leader in what was called the lab. so we do the live imaging of the body, giving the doctor basically eyes inside the body. we can do the 3d rendering of everything in your body. volcano is the market leader in these smart catheters that are these tubular wires that go from your arteries to your heart or other places in your body to do the intervention.
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so we are combining two market leaders to create a true winner in the image guided therapy space. and there are a lot of synergies in this deal that make it very compelling. another corporate story that has been getting a lot of attention, american apparel has officially fired founder and ceo six months after he was ousted. the clothing retailer charney investigation including sexual assault allegations. in statement, charney says he is disappointed. but wishes the company success. and if you're still looking for a last-minute christmas idea, this might be what you're looking for. mervis diamond importers in the washington, d.c. area is offering this beautiful $31,000 diamond encrusted apple watch
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for preorder. there will probably be five to ten limited edition models. the watch is not being pushed by apple. mervis plans on decking out the device on its own. but it's not a real thing yet. the apple watch is not available for sale. mervis is waiting to see if there are buyer us out there before they roll it out. the apple watch coming out in early 2015. we want to hear from you. if money was no object, what would your christmas gift be? what would you want to see under the tree for this christmas holiday season. get in touch with us by e-mail. worldwide@cnbc.com or tweet us, @cnbcwex. it feels like deja vu where the threat of a snap lekdz is putting the country on the brink. cute little guy, huh?
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this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.
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let's take a look at u.s. futures and how they're fairing ahead of the wall street open. it was a volatile day for u.s. markets yesterday. in fact, the dow moved 705 points today, down 99, up 247, and sending down about 112 points. last time the dow made this
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double triple back to back move was in november 2008. right now, the dow indicating a higher move by around 114 points. the nasdaq up 23 in premarket trade and the s&p 500 up just about 1 points while oil did break its four-day losing streak yesterday. we are continuing to see oil prices move to the downside, indicating that oil prices have not found a bottom. we're looking at brent trading below $60 a barrel. how are european markets responding? remember, we got that read on inflation. 0.3% for the month of november year over year. nothing did meet analyst expect ages, but nothing to get too excited about. it feels eurozone is dealing with slow inflation, low inflation and, of course, that continues to be a question for ecb's mario draghi, what he plans to do, what additional monetary easing could be unveiled to strengthen the european economy. right now, we're looking at european markets trading lower, the russian -- the volatility in russia as well as the currency has been a focal point for
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investors. it's a fast-moving story coming out of russia. we've been getting some headlines from russian prime minister medvedev. he says the ruble out of -- is out of the zone comfortable for the economy. the russian prime minister says the ruble situation must be brought under control and that the current fx situation linked to behavior of russian exporters is something to be looked into. right now, we're looking at the russian ruble, gain a little bit of steam against the u.s. dollar. we'll continue to bring you you live updates from moscow with geoff cutmore. still to come on the show, could lower fuel prices be the lower christmas gift fedex has been waiting for? we'll ask if the shipping giants delivers q2 results after the break.
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welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. here are your headlines from around the world. the russian ruble continues this roller coaster ride even after the government steps in to defend the currency, this as president obama vows to sign a new sanctions by the end of the week. global markets remain on edge after a choppy session on wall street after investor eye the fed's statement for a change in forward guidance on rates. general electric says profits may be pressure i by the drop in oil prices.
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jeff immelt will be on cnbc in an exclusive interview later today. and philips shares equipping after snapping up volcano for $1.2 billion. but they tell cnbc the deal will create a true winner. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the world. thank you for joining us on "worldwide exchange." it was a wild and particularly volatile session on wall street with the dow now down about 5% from its record close on december 5th. today, we focus on the fed. investors are expecting the fed to stick with raising rates. that could drive the u.s. dollar higher and oil prices lower which could spell more bad news
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for stocks. right now, futures indicating a higher open after stocks did sell off in idea's trade. what does this mean for european markets? we did, in fact, stage a rally in yesterday's trade. right now, european markets formally in the red. we're looking at the ftse 100 down by around 30 points. the xetra dax trading down about 40 points. and the cac 40 down about 7 points. italian markets is the big underperformer, down triple digits. a 202-point move to the down side in italy or 1%. energy has been a focal point for investors. one of the reasons we've been seeing the partnership tuesday drop in the oil prices, oil breaking a four-day losing streak yesterday. keep in mind, still down about 26% over the past one month. today, crude continues to move to the downside, trading at $55.06 down 1.5%. brent crude trading below $60 a barrel. remember, the oil route has put wall street on a wild ride, but
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billionaire investor wilbur ross telling cnbc that this translates to a bigger stimulus for main street. listen in. >> the reduction in price is a very meaningful thing. to the u.s., i think it adds somewhere between $50 and $60 per month to the average house after tax income. and that's a lot when you consider how many people live from barrel day payroll day to payroll day. and the drama in russia continues. take a look at the ruble. another volatile session for the ruble with the russian currency failing to hold gains after the country's finance ministry said it was selling foreign currency stock. right now, it's trading at $68.19. speaking moments ago, the russian prime minister said the ruble was out of the comfortable zone for the economy and just when the situation should be brought under control. let's cross life to geoff cutmore who is in moscow.
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geoff, what do you make of the recent statements coming out of prime minister medvedev? >> well, i think it fits the pattern, doesn't it? the administration is trying to get ahead of this rapid decline that we've seen in the ruble so far this week in excess of 20%. we got that dramatic hike in interest rates down 17%. then we heard the central bank had been intervening to the tune of nearly $2 billion. after that, the finance ministry statement suggesting that they would go into the market and they had potentially $7 billion to get involved and now this latest statement suggesting that the ruble is out of their comfortable zone for the economy. so you've got two types of intervention taking place here. one is the physical to go in and
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start to intervene physically to try to get the ruble decline stopped. and the verbal intervention, the threat potentially that the government would take further steps that might change the way in which this market operates. and it's interesting in those flashes that he has highlighted the activities of exporters because there have been suggestions here from domestic politicians that maybe it is time to start tightening the grip a little bit on where the currency goes and how it's used. of course, up to this point, all officials have said there would be no currency controls. but if there were to be some movement in the direction of retraining the activities, they use their surplus balances for, then that might be seen as incremental moves towards restricting the way in which the currency is used. but i think it's very closely
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just to see how it unwraps itself because the biggest fear, i think, the market has of this economy goes for something like full blown capital controls, which would obviously be a retrograde step in terms of more liberal and more opening up, more reform minded approaches to economic management. let me send it back to you for now. >> geoff, thank you so much. it is certainly a fast-moving story, one that we will watch by the hour. when looking at russia's slowing growth, high inflation and a free fall in the currency. but there are companies out there responding to the volatility that we are seeing in the russian ruble. in fact, apple hats halted online sales in russia due to the volatility. the tech giant issued a statement overnight saying sales would be unavailable pending a review of pricing. get the full story on cnbc.com. general electric sees profits being pressured next
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year by a sluggish oil business at the company's annual investor day on tuesday. executives say they expect profits from aviation, profit, water and other at least 10% in 2015. but revenue from oil and gas is expected to fall. ge fell about 0.5% in after hours trade, but trading up about 0.2% in frankfurt. the ge ceo jeff immelt will be on "squawk on the street" today in a cnbc exclusive interview at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. and fedex reporting second quarter results at 7:30 a.m. eastern time. the company forecast to earn $2.20 a share on revenue. fedex may have benefited from good weather and cheaper oil prices. let's get market reaction, what do expect from ar thursday hatfield, transfer analyst and managing director at raymond
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james. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> let's talk about this. good weather, help fedex earnings this quarter? yeah. i also think a fairley robust u.s. economy and a healthy prep for the holiday season should help them substantially this quarter. coming down, we expect could help them anywhere between 5 and 10 cents on the quarter. that coupled with healthy air freight trends in the international markets, we think, should allow them to put up a pretty decent number in the quarter. >> fedex is in the process of restructuring its air express division, something that helps bring down costs in the first quarter. but will it help the company in the second quarter? >> we think so. a lot of the actions to get costs out of the business have taken place over the last couple of years. and we should start to see the benefits of that. one of the key metrics that i think people will be looking at is the operating margin at their express business. we expect that to improve 70
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basis points see subsequentially and 90 basis points year over year to about a little over 6% in the quarter. >> talk about a way to play the drop in the price of oil. shipping and transportation companies seen as one way, but with fedex shares up about 21% year-to-date have the lower fuel prices been priced in to the stock? >> well, it depends on where fuel goes from here. if it continues to trade down, we could see further benefit. i don't think that the fuel prices are fully priced into the stock at this point. i think that you can say in any given quarter a 10 to 15 cent benefit from fuel. it just depends on how quickly it drops. that's an ongoing process of pricing that in. more importantly, it's what revenue growth is doing. we have that growing over 35% in the quarter and the continued benefit from the cost reduction programs should be the factors that drive the stock over the
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next 12 months. >> with growing e-commerce sales another boom for the company. arthur hatfield, we're going to leave it there. managing director at raymond james. coming up, sony pictures comes under attack from hackers and employees for its controversial new comedy "the interview." we cross to the cnbc headquarters for the latest.
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it's a situation playing out in real life as hackers step up their threats against sony pictures. landon dowdy is live at cnbc headquarters with the latest. landon. >> good morning. executives at sony pictures will reportedly leave it up to movie theater owners to decide whether to show the interview. the comedy set to open in the u.s. on christmas day and that comes after threats of violence surfaced on tuesday. reports say the hackers who claim to have carried out the massive cyber attack on the studio last month are threatening physical attacks. in a message posted online, the company reference tess 9/11 terror attacks and the department of homeland security says there's no credible evidence of a plot against movie theaters, but reports say some
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in the industry are urging sony to cancel the movie release. and such a move is unprecedented. studios and theaters work out when and where a movie will play out months in advance. the hackers have posted more than 30,000 e-mails to and from chief michael linton. they include discussions involving linton and other business executives. several former sony employees have sued the studio this week, alleging the company knew its computer servers were vulnerable for years and failed to respond to the data breach. the movie involves seth rogen and franco. they had been scheduled to be on "the tonight show" with jimmy fallon this evening. as for the most very, it's projected to take in an estimated $25 million over the christmas holiday weekend.
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seema, back to you. landon dowdy, thank you so much for that report. and another big story in the retail space, american apparel has officially fired the ceo and founder dov charney. this followed an internal investigation ending a ten-year racked up of scandals, including sexual allegations. he's disappointed. in other news, the u.s. is launch ago bid to host the 2024 olympics. host cities up for consideration include boston, los angeles, san francisco and washington. the u.s. city will be chosen early next year and the international olympic committee will make a final decision in 2017. the u.s. last hosted the summer games in atlanta in 1996. now, we've been asking you in the run up to christmas what would your dream gift be if money were not an object? rick tweeting in a bughatti
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g-650 to take me through azoa in southern italy. wow, take me with you. i like that idea. if you want to join in the conversation, @cnbcwex or worldwide@cnbc.com. coming up, the ruble roller coaster ride continues as president obama gets set to approve fresh sanctions on moscow. u.s. futures indicating a higher open after we did see a sell-off in yesterday's trade. the countdown to the fomc decision continues and general electric feeling the pinch from lower oil, warning profits could take a hit. ceo jeff immelt speaks to cnbc exclusively later today. stamps.com is the best.
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afternoon a rebound last night, the european markets are down in the red. the ftse 100 and xetra dax down 0.5%. cac 40 down 0.3%. the ftse mib is down 1.41%. oil prices, another factor given ta they continue to move to the down side. oil did break a four-day losing streak. but it's still down today and down about 26% in the last month alone. perhaps oil prices have not found a bottom. what does this mean for russia and the volatility that we have been seeing in the russian ruble? right now, we are looking at the russian ruble gain a little bit of steam against the u.s. dollar, right annoy trading at $68.02. but what can we expect today in going forward? let's bring in jens nordick from
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nomura security. great to have you on today. it's really every investment that has a bull and bear case. but it's hard to find one reason to be positive or bullish on the russian currency aside from valuation. am i wrong? >> yeah, i think that's right. obviously, this is a situation where the policies have been guided, really, by a foreign policy concentration. that means that the sort of normal economic framework that you use and say, okay, now they're going to take these steps, that's not necessarily applicable in russia's case. that makes it very, very tricky. also, normally when you have an emerging market currency crisis, you look for help from abroad. you have programs that typically come in and those types of measures are just highly unlikely. i would say more or less impassable in russia's situation given the foreign policy tensions. so it's hard to see a bottom until there's a geopolitical shift, unless there's a change
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around policies in ukraine. obviously, with the sanctions being imposed yid, additional sanctions by united states, that doesn't seem to be the direction we're going in yet. >> we got that interest rate hike yesterday, but the last time russia used dramatic measures to support the currency was in 1998. it didn't work then. why should we expect it to work now? >> well, in '98, it was an economy that was very different from today. so that was really a situation where the entire supply side of the economy was facing very, very severe difficulties and the process was not complete. it's a little bit different now, but i think in any currency crisis, you have a situation where it is not an easy option just to raise interest rates to essentially stabilize the currency. obviously, that hurts the economy and that lower growth is something that scares investors. so it is really a confidence game. and i would say the central bank
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has not been particularly convincing. they don't seem to be really ahead of the game yet. they need to do something more forceful. they need to communicate more clearly and they need to articulate a longer term plan to over time gain stability and we need something much more forceful than we've seen so far to get to that step. >> jens, do you think the recent move in the ruble, the recent collapse may just be the most recent battle? what could be a larger emerging market crisis that will ee involve in 2015? >> yes. so one right now is exactly that. a lot of people are focusing on the sort of debt dynamics in emerging markets is that too much hard currency debt will be hard to repay if the dollar continues to strengthen and emerging markets continue to weaken. it really depends a lot of which country you're looking at. right now, where energy has dropped so much and dropped so fast, we're very focused on which countries have a lot of
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debt in the energy sector. so that would be countries like columbia, latin america, mexico has quite a bit. and even a country like canada, we have to watch their exposures and energy space. that debt is around 110 billion in canada dollars. so the significance exposure that i think we have to watch out for carefully right now. >> and jens, we want to take a look at u.s. futures. yesterday, of course, both the s&p and the dow settled at their lowest level since late october. but that's only half the story. wild ride for the dow jones industrial, moving 705 points in yesterday's trade from down 99 to up 247 and then ending the day down 112 points. last time the dow made this double, triple back to back move was in november 2008, a day in which the dow was up triple digits and down triple digits in the same session. something quite ware. of course, today is all about the fed olz, fed wrapping up its final policy meeting of the year
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this afternoon with the decision and members latest economic forecasts expected at 2:00 p.m. eastern. that's followed by janet yellen's news conference at 2:30 p.m. now, most fed watchers expect the central bank to drop its pledge to keep rates low for a considerable time. jens, i want to get your reaction. do you think the fed will step on the gas when we know what a hike in u.s. interest rates will mean for emerging markets and emerging market currencies? >> yes. so i think it is very difficult for the fed to sort of move away from this normalization process. the u.s. state has been very strong. and there's nuthsd in tothing i outlook for 2015 that they should -- from this script. i think they'll take out the considerable time language and i
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think the projections for interest rates at the end of 2015 which comes out today will be consistent with what we had in september. that is the reason why when we sort of decide on strategy going into today's fomc meeting, we want to still have a long dollar buyer. we think the signal is going to be more hawkish than it's priced in interest rate space. i think that is something that in this environment of risk aversion, that is something that is negative for emerging markets. we're very fortunate for emerging markets now. i think the tensions we've had in global credit market is something that makes emerging markets vulnerable and certainly in the short-term, i think the dollar versus em trade is one that has further to run. >> in the past, janet yellen has said to expect further volatility in emerging markets as u.s. rates normalize. but this time around, do you think the fed will comment
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specifically on the recent volatility that we have seen in the russian markets as well as the ruble? >> i don't think so. i would say two things. if you look at overall financial conditions, the stock market, the s&p 500, is very much at the similar level right now as it was back in september at the last meeting when the revised forecast. but from that the if he had can say we are around the same levels, nothing super dramatic has happened yet. back in october, when we had a batch of severe volatility, janet yellen did a speech that very week and a lot of people were looking for her to give a dovish signal and she didn't even mention the volatility. so i think the lesson from that speech is probably sort of a staying calm, not panicking about market volatility is the way to go. actually, the market rally back then when she didn't comment on the volatility. i think that's the type of message you would say today, as
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well. >> thank you for your time. let's take a quick look at u.s. futures right now. pointing to a higher open after we did see a sell-off in u.s. markets yesterday. that's it for this show. i'm seema mody.
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good morning. turmoil in russia, the country's finance ministry selling foreign currency stock in an attempt to halt the ruble's slide. and then we've got what's happening in the oil markets. brent crude dropping for a sixth straight session today after moving up and down quite a bit yesterday. the global markets are on high alert. if you want to invest, you better take some dramamine first
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because stocks are swinging wildly. the dow moving -- yeah, you heard us talking about it yesterday. this is what we said would happen. moving more than 700 points yesterday in a single session. it's wednesday, december 17th, 2014. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and michelle caruso cabrera. andrew is off today. our guest host this hour, roger altman. uber is trying to make a break through in china. breaking overnight. internet giant baidu announcing it is buying a stake in the car hailing service. we'll have details on that in just a bit. but first, it is decision day at the fed. policymakers wrapping up a two-day meeting. the fomc

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