tv Fast Money CNBC December 18, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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obviously in the pre-market they were cleaned out and into this 400 point rally into the close, there again, they're pushing those hats. we'll be very close to that i think tomorrow, kelly, then we'll see where we go. >> yeah. they were bad luck last time. stay tuned tomorrow. >> that's why i'm not wearing it, i'm just holding it. >> thank you both so much for your time. >> it was a pleasure to be here. >> that does it for us on closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site, "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tonight's top story, the megarally for stocks. dow seeing the best gains since 2008. traders are tim see more, tim grasso, karen finer man and brian kelly. the dow closing up more than 400 points today for the first time in more than three years. the technology sector leading the gains over the past two days. the s&p and dow have erased almost all of their losses for the month of december. equities brushing off a nearly 3% decline in oil. oil's drop has been dragging
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down the broader marks for weeks. what's different this time around? can we explain this massive rally, brian kelly? >> i don't think you can explain today. i don't think there was a logical reason for today. nothing has changed in the past couple of days. the only thick is the federal reserve has said the economy is so weak they're afraid to change a couple of words. what was interesting to what you said at the beginning, this is the biggest rally since november 2008. we know that the largest point gains always come in bear markets so do i trust this rally? absolutely not. especially when you see oil going lower, when you see hyg turning over. for me, i don't have any position in spy right now. the risk/reward is not there to be involved. >> i couldn't begin to explain what happened today. yesterday, that kind of made sense. we had been so over sold. oil was starting to maybe stabilize a little bit. yesterday even though it was gigantic, 40 points, it wasn't so crazy. this, i have no explanation whatsoever for why this happened. >> if you look at it, first of all, we've taken our lead. we've rose and fallen with oil.
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to me, i was a little perplexed as to why oil was up to begin with today. i guess people felt a little better about the world one day, 24 hours later. i could see as i said yesterday, i could see the individual names in the energy space rally. i just can't account for any real substantial rally in crude. i think we can't get that rally in crude. i think the overall market is probably going lower but that doesn't dismiss or totally eliminate the chance for a santa claus rally. i think that's what you're seeing. >> longer term -- >> i would be hard-pressed to see why people would say we have to short this market aggressively. tomorrow we have quad witch. tomorrow we have rebalance. never short a dull market. why would they sell this market into year end? >> final. don't sell it. would you buy it though? would you buy it is the question? >> this was get shorty. the last couple days were get shorty. you have triple witching and quad witching going on into friday. for all the people --
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>> recovering rally? 400 points? >> i don't know what today was means that you felt that what a couple of days ago was the norm which was that the markets were going much, much lower. two days ago on this desk people were worked up. two days on the market people were saying things were going lower, 19, 20, that's the call. >> sure. >> i don't think the price action here is all that crazy. i think when you look at some of the things that have rallied, you have to think about where can i take some profits and things that have rallied. emerging still down 3.5% week over week. i faded some stuff that i wanted to get out of six weeks ago. the dollar is going higher. a lot of pressure on commodities. >> are you thinking of taking profits into any position near your end? >> not just because it rallied today. if it got to a target, yes, i would. i know i'm not going to be able to get back out and get back in at the right time. i can't do it. >> the action in hyg, the high yield index. that made you skeptical? >> right. earlier this week when it was
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down 86, 87, i covered the puts i had. i sold the puts. today i bought more puts but out to march this time. to me, nothing has ever changed. everybody was talking about hyg down to the bottom. i haven't heard anybody talk about this. it rolled over. we were as high as 90/30. what's happening in oil, again, something that's been a leader of the market, that's a concern. then finally, the u.s. dollar japanese yen which is something i look at a lot, that rolled over at its high. i don't think a thing changed whatsoever. that's why it's hard to be in this market buy or sell. >> i throw this market back to you. if you're in the market, you stay long in the market? what are you thinking of? >> yeah. i think as a whole it depends what you own. if you're married to these positions, like i'm married to a couple of really bad positions for me. i'm married to mobile eye at this point, i'm married to twitter. i'm also in apple. i'm staying long apple. we saw apple run. we started to give back a lot. you start to see people sort of figure out where they're
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jockeying for position year end. stay long in things you have real good conviction with. energy. >> lighting petroleum. >> as a proxy for the whole space. it fell off 55%. rallied back 32%. does that mean it's conviction to get long? absolutely not. you're going to see a beta chase in a lot of these names. they're still off dramatically from the day before thanksgiving. >> "fast money" trader dan nathan joins us on the fast line with his latest move. dan, this is a final trade for the past couple of shows so what did you do today? >> yeah. i was in the tlt. it was the i. shares. real quickly, this was a 2r5id i thought on a near-term basis given the fact that the tlt had been a massive beneficiary i believe from all of the geopolitical fears, a lot of the contagion around russia and the crashing oil, we had seen this move, tlt backed up to the october 15th, you know, high at about 127. to me heading into the fed i
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wanted to do one thing. i wanted to fade the fear. i did not think that the fed was going to kind of stoke further fears. i thought bonds would settle in because they have been this kind of safe haven trade over the last couple of weeks that the s&p had sold off. we had the 2.5% move in the tlt lower as the s&p had rallied. i took the tradeoff. to me very simply, crude kind of freaked me out a little bit here. we had s&ps surging. we had risks on massively. if that falls flew tomorrow we could see some of this equity euphoria come off and we could see a move back into bonds. i took that near term short tradeoff. >> dan, thanks for phoning in and updating us on that trade. let's talk about tesla stock bouncing back after hitting its lowest levels after may 20th of this week. the electric vehicle maker jumping 20%. is this a good time to be back
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in. colin langdon follows tesla. a neutral rating. a $230 price on it. colin, great to have you with us. if you take a look at tesla's move from its 52 week high it was down 34% to its most recent low. do you think that we've seen the flush out of tesla that we needed to see for it to sort of build back higher? >> it's a very volatile name. i still think right now some of that correction is in the oil risk. if you're looking at this as a long-term story, this will be under pressure with cheap oil. i think that's part of the reflection. >> this deals with the notion that the giga factory could push that mass market vehicle out there and be an advantage, but basically based on your talks with this battery experts, it sounds like the economics may not be there even under the most bullish case scenario for 2025. can you walk us through that? >> yeah, sure. we talked to an expert who was involved in the volt and the ev 1 so he's pretty knowledgeable at it. basically you look at comparing
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it to a gas vehicle by 2020 with the scale benefit of a giga factory, you're getting it 7 to $10,000 more expensive than a mass market vehicle on the gas side. if you take a technology leap and there's technology not developed today, if you assume you could double the density of a battery, that's theoretically possible but who knows, you look at 2025, you could do that, you're still 3,000 to $6,000 more expensive. we don't know how efficient gas will get over that time and we don't know where gas prices are. when you look at mass market automakers, that's probably why they aren't following tesla's suit. for the mass market, it's hard to get that to work. >> the long-term projection is the next decade. are we looking at this too narrowly? the bulls will say the giga factory will be solar storage as well. there will be so many other possibilities for use of these batteries that we're just not thinking about. >> i think clearly there's a
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huge option ality. it's expensive so it will depend on getting the battery costs down. >> so you're saying it's an expensive option. are you talking about the pe ration? what do you mean by the expensive option? if they could transform the electric grid, it would be cheap. >> it offered optionality, i didn't say it was expensive. >> oh, okay. >> we're talking five years out to the giga factory would be scaleable. as i said, the technology similar on the carp side, it is questionable, can the economics work. is lithium the same solution for stationary storage. there might be heavier applications that might work better than stationary storage. there are other options that might be just as viable. >> just to be clear, you have a neutral rating on the stock $230 price. that's for the 1234eks months? >> yes. yes.
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>> it's practically dead money here. there's not that much up side? >> particularly in this environment with concerns about gas prices and the fact, you know, you still have good news on the fact that they're going to probably continue to roll out more vehicles. there's still the model s, they'll launch the x. you have that offsetting. it's a very cautious long story when you see that vehicle. >> colin, thanks for coming by. ubs. it sounds like even if it hits everything, everything possible can it grow into this value? >> colin is pointing out 9 opportunities for the company which is fantastic. not only is it a long-term story, you shouldn't be trading it in line with other autos. great. you shouldn't be looking at production. every time we get the production signals you should rally the stock. to me the way you trade the stock is look at it at 2.40. everyone is falling in line. this is a company with remarkable technology. the ev world is something they'll share with the rest of the auto sector. good for them. >> what do you think of that
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level, 180? the low is -- >> that's something, you go back and look at that level back in may. that seems to be supported in the stock. we talked about the other day, you could have played it against the 200 level as a bounce. i wouldn't have so i wouldn't have caught this bounce. i need to see it above 233 which is the moving average. he has a price target 2630 on it. that's where you see a little congestion in the target. >> skeptics. this is a stock you put in your drawer? >> yes. absolutely. >> that's true. i actually think, listen, you're buying this because you think it will transform the electric grid. like tim said, you can't look at monthly or quarterly projections. >> the big market should have been china. >> i don't care about china. >> you're thinking long term. >> that's the only reason for -- >> unfortunately, it's price for transformation right now. it's certainly not price for an auto car. >> i agree. >> he is a believer in the transformation. you guys are skeptical. that's where the difference is. >> the chart and the stock care about china because if you
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overlay china on it, if you overlay crude prices on it the charts follow in sync with each other. >> last word. >> i would say if you're trading this, if you miss it by 5%, that's okay. this is a very volatile stock. you'll catch it. >> we'll have more on today's rally throughout this hour. the conference call is up. we've got the latest on the conference call after the break. energy stocks popping today. is it too late to get in on the bounce. we'll take a look at what history shows us and how to play it coming up on "fast."
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off the back of the powerful rally, take a look at the s&p 500 heat map. you can see very few issues closing in the red today. >> wow. >> this gives you an idea of the breadth of this rally that we saw. meantime, nike earnings out. the stock is falling. joining us now on the fast line is sam poser, the managing directorment sam, great to have you with us. >> thanks. >> why do you think the stock is down in the after hours? >> i really think it's down because the back log, future orders were up as people expected. there wasn't anything really right there that just makes it
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overwhelming to buy. the stocks moved almost 20% since the last earnings call. i think they're doing everything right. big surprise on china being particularly better than we anticipated. i mean, it's great company. up at this level it just looks like it's pretty fairly priced. that's what it's doing right now. it keeps backing right down to basically where it started the day. >> have we heard anything on the call yet about the impacts from the turmoil about russia or currency head winds? >> not yet. it's -- mark parker is just speaking. that will be towards the middle of -- that will be when don blair gets on. we're waiting to hear about that. but, i mean, you know, eastern central europe business was way up so i think they're executing very, very well. i mean, i just don't -- it just doesn't seem like the surprise. there wasn't any up side surprise. i think that's why the stock was giving back what it made today. when we hear from don blair we'll know more. >> sam, tim seymour.
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i agree with you. the bar was too high. 29 times the multiple this is where we have to wonder and compare their brands. talk about s&ps. tell me where the weak spot is here because i think these guys can probably if they haven't grown into this multiple, they should do. >> well, i mean, remember that we've been on a phenomenal athletic run since the beginning of 2010 and i really believe that this run is going to continue through 2016. i agree, they've got to stay very innovative, and they do. but, again, this almost becomes a law of large numbers. i believe there's a huge opportunity in china. and i think they're going to be sort of cycling through some of the -- the comparisons for the emerging markets most specifically brazil get a lot more difficult in the coming quarters. i just think that -- i think
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that this is going to be a little bit of a work in progress, to pull this thing up and really rekick it from here, especially given where we may be in the athletic footware cycle which will run through the middle of 2016 and the olympics. nike is doing a great job. they're doing a lot of damage because of adidas and nike is putting up big numbers. this is a great company. i think it's dead money for a while. >> sam, great to have you on. thanks so much for your time. >> thank you. >> sam poser on stern ag. we took a look using ken cho. what happens with nike and what we've found be is the average return in 20 days over ten years is that nike is up 5% compared to the s&p 500 which is up less than a percent so that's pretty good here. karen, what would you do here? he said it's going to be dead money for the near term.
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>> nike, as you said, great company. it's expensive. i've played this sector through foot locker and finish line. i think about foot locker obviously being quite exposed to nike. foot locker is up 40%. >> what's up with finish line? >> finish line up nicely as well. i own them both. so for me i'd be long foot locker on this. they are executing great, have a great balance sheet and it's a lot chaper. >> 94 play, that's where they broke the 50. >> i'm in the name, broke the name. there's a do-opoly. stock between 94 and 99 probably range bound here. >> red hat soaring after hours on earnings. don chi has the earnings. >> it's up 11% on 733,000 shares worth of trading volume. red hat share up. the software solution provider is moving higher after the company posted better than
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expected third quarter results boosted by the subscription side of the business. those results were up about 15% on a year-over-year basis. about 18% if you do it on a currency neutral basis. so, again, red hat shares up by 11%. its results and subscription revenues were up by more than some analysts had expected. >> dom, thanks so much for that. brian kelly, what's the trade? >> i don't think you have to chase it tomorrow morning. i would buy it on a pull back hopefully 65ish. this will be a major, major multi-year breakout in the stock. obviously in a sector everybody wants to be in. do i buy it up 9, 10%, absolutely not. at 65 i'd take another look. coming up next, stocks soaring despite oil's fall. is it too late to buy into the energy sector? we have the historical data you need. the one currency you should be shorting right now. back in 2. >> announcer: from record-breaking highs to major
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market meltdowns. every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in depth analysis and actionable advice. >> i still think there's some room on the up side here. >> announcer: all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> i don't think you chase it up 4, 4.5% tomorrow. >> announcer: this is "fast money." >> i think we're going much lower in oil and i think we're going much lower in the s&p. >> announcer: have questions for the "fast money" traders, tweet us at cnbcfastmoney.
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more than 400 point rally today on the dow. take a look at the heat map of the dow 30. not a single component finishing the day in the red as the markets overall up 2.5%. dunkin donuts shares sitting out today's rally. cutting the outlook for 2015. dunkin citing packaged properties. >> it's a nice trade. it's paired against starbucks. these guys belong together. this is a nice pair where we do have two peers who have had substantial growth. i think dunkin's growth is unsustainable. we see their 2015 eps is going to be shy. it was announced today it would
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be shy between 7 and 9%. fourth quarter, full numbers impute the fourth quarter. .4. the great success story of dunkin to me that was soaring is hey, i want to play this short side. this trade went on about six weeks ago or just after the weakness of october when i felt that i wanted to hold onto the starbucks position and i wanted to being in a more expensive company where i think this has less long-term growth. even with today's move, dunkin only down 3%, starbucks up 6. it hasn't been a home run. i wasn't directionally short dunkin donuts. >> are you keeping it? >> i stay in this trade. it has a move that shows that disappointment. i'll wait a couple of days. i'll watch it. i think we might get more reaffirmation. >> year to date dunkin brands is down 2%. people stick with this type of winner when you look at ups, fed ex, we look at pair trades. people like to stick with their
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winners and press them a little bit. i think you'll see the divergence continue. next up, interesting comments from jim ch henos regarding the caterpillar short and the mining industry has a whole. >> caterpillar's fundamentals are dropping. they have been for two years. even as the chinese market goes up this year iron ore hits a new high. copper is a different area. they had two businesses to fall back on. energy and construction. >> karen. >> yes. >> you were short caterpillar. >> i was short. i didn't have the ability to stay in. >> the resolve. >> the resolve. to stay in a short like chanos.6 he is a great short seller. now it's sort of heading back his way.
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the one thing that i do recall about really looking at this company, they missed so often. why is it that they had absolutely no visibility whatsoever into their business -- >> right. >> -- when you'd think they'd have a little bit. these are orders that they place sometime in advance. that was a little bit disconcerting. the utility, united rental, that sort of went nuts. chanos will be right at the end of the day. >> depends on how long your time is and how long you can hold a short like that. >> i don't think mining cycles are coming back like it was several years ago. if you look at what's happening in china, money is flowing out of china at this point in time. they have a serious slowdown going on there. tim will talk about a second derivative trade. i would stay away from this. i think deere is probably a decent short here as 90 against your stock. >> it's farming. >> it's also farming and u.s. housing. >> i tend to agree with the
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sentiment. it's hard to say mining is coming back. it has significant north american construction exposure. the farming belt is over supplied. that is very cyclical. the stock is down near 89. this stock has bounced there. the range is 90 to 110. it's getting closer to a buy than a sell. >> i wouldn't touch either one of them. the year to date performance doesn't tell you a lot. when you look at cat it's basically off 30% off its recent highs. it ran a lot. it's factored in a lot. >> do you short it? >> no. i think it's a no touch. i think it's a dangerous area right now because it's susceptible to one good headline out of china. i wouldn't invest in it. coming up next, energy stocks soaring a long with the broader market. is it too late to be buying into this bounce? stay tuned.
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but it is still the worst performing sector in the s&p 500 this quarter. we've got someone who says this could be the perfect time to get in. let's bring in paul hickey. >> how are you? >> we have seen energy bounce maybe anticipating a move in the stabilization of oil. >> just looking at the energy sector, what we've done, we have this huge divergence, almost unheard of where the s&p 500 is up 5%, sector down 20% over a six-month stretch. go back 50 years it's only happened 16 times. very rare. first answer to the question, that kind of divergence doesn't spell doom for the overall market. you see better in line or better than average returns. second question, now should we step in and buy the sector that's weak. in the case of energy, when you look back in the prior instances what you've seen is that the sector outperforms the market over the following 3, 6, 12 months more than 50% of the time, usually more than 2/3 of
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the time. in terms of absolute returns, you see the average return of the sector over three months is 5%. six months it's an average gain of 10% and over a year it's an average gain of 20%. and all times the returns positive at least 60% of the time. so, again, the sector's been beaten down so much. if you're willing to put up with the swings and the volatility, i think you'll be rewarded in the long run. >> it would seem mathematically that the sector that under performs ultimately will out perform or revert to the mean. >> exactly. >> is oil any different than any other sector that we've seen that has fallen? >> i don't think so because, you know, one of the questions we get, energy is a big sector. 10% as the peak of this divergence but now, you know, it's fallen. if you look at other sectors you've seen sectors with 15%. technology and health care in the early '90s were over 10% waitings. they diverged. the market went higher and
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eventually the sectors caught up with the market. >> paul, i've heard. i've been watching the underperformance of energy pre that october selloff. i heard about it there. if you bought into that you would have gotten crushed. a lot of guys chased that trade. does that change looking back any of your calculus going forward? do you think it could be a secular change in the oil markets versus now it's going to revert back? >> i don't know if it's a secular change. we heard about secular changes ten years ago saying we're running out of oil and that didn't happen. it's a matter of it's reversion to the mean and the divergence that we're talking about didn't kick in until early december. even in that late november period and october period you didn't see quite that divergence that we've seen now. >> do you see the corollary or the flip side to this to the up side you would want to sell that sector that outperformed so much because in the net following year it underperforms because it's also a reverge against of a mean? >> yeah.
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if you look at sectors that have outperformed, the utilities is the only sector that's exceeded its 2014 high in the most recent rally. reversion to the mean, you'll see the out performing sectors perform. >> paul, thanks for stopping by. what do you think? >> utilities. >> that's your fav. >> they're up 25%. >> you're southern. >> i'm still in southern. it's a hedge against the rest of my portfolio. if you really look at it, it's unexplained why the s&p has run this far. why are people reaching for yields? what are they worried about? why are they worried that it's risk on yet they're tripping over themselves to buy utilities. >> sl is where i'm at. jim chanos had another good clip where he summarized. he said he is long oil verse being short his other position. the reason why is either oil is wrong and it's going much higher
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or the stock market is wrong and it's going much lower. i think that's how you play it. i would stay away from the oil and gas xlp, the explorers. i would stick with like an exxon mobil or something like that. if you want to hedge your portfolio, you want to be part of it. >> let's talk about the fundamental thesis. would you be comfortable with that? >> no, but i would do it. when you're uncomfortable, that's the best time to do it. >> we talked about ski drill, some debt. i would like to buy more. we bought some oih. we're dipping our toes in the water. time for pop and drop. mgm resorts up 8%. >> about time they took part in the rally. two days ago you have the chinese government talking about smacking down more. vegas more importantly on some level right now. i stay neutral to stock. i don't think you jump in on this bounce.
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>> rite aid, hop. >> what a bump on earnings. much better than anybody expected. jumped all the way up to 7. if you're in it, take some profit. you have to let this settle down before you do anything. >> got a pop for navistar. >> sort of the reversal of some pretty big drops. carl, mark krzyzewski, nice to see them getting along. and the market was up 400. >> drop for conagra up 12%. >> the company i believe said things are not supposed to improve until 2016. up 8 mers percent ye% in 2008. >> now for a trade that's under the radar today. tim seymour got his way over to the smart board. what are you watching? >> the australian dollar versus the dollar index, the dxy.
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as you can see, the dollar index has been going through after bottoming in kind of '08 and again after the crisis, been going through a multi--year process of basing. this is what happens. it doesn't want to move overnight. the flip side, look at the australian dollar in blue. the currency which is the epitome of the commodity cycle. with iron other, this was where their sweet spot is. when you look at 2010 at the picking up of a cycle. we've gotten to where i've knocked this off the chart. >> that is under the radar. >> commodity prices are taking australian dollar down. we've heard the reserve bank, governor stevens saying he wants the currency to go weeker. modern policy which i will try not to knock off. i've done it again.
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where we are, we're in a place where you can play it by being short. i won't touch this board now. the place where we brought through t levels last week. we are now heading down to multi-year lows. i think it can go to 65. that's the level we were at the bottom if you look at where we sold off back here. under the radar, not so much in that it's happening. i think it continues. i think the australian dollar epitomizes me. the housing stocks were so blown out in 2008. i know this is an entire economy here. this is a nice hedge for your marketing and mining. >> you'll never be allowed. that was the first and the last time. brian kelly, would you also short? >> yeah. this is a great trade for the long run here. tim talks about the fact that it's already started to work but
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currency trends last for years. if you get any yeses? >> a big rally for the rest of the market. we talk to the ceo about the move and why it's thought to become a favorite hedge fund. that's next. at 4:51. ♪ they cut the power. it'll fix itself. power's back on. quick thinking traffic lights and self correcting power grids make the world predictable. thrillingly predictable.
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take a look at that. wow. what a pop for oracle. certainly fueled by the optimism across the market today as we did see a huge rally. those are the s&p leaders that helped us reach highs into today's session. short sellers betting the farm against chickens. an eight month surge has investors shorting farms with the hope that the poultry bubble pops. c of sanderson farms, joe, thank you for joining us again. >> thank you, melissa. >> you said you don't expect chicken supply to increase more than 2 or 3%. this is an industry with an under supply and oversupply. what makes a difference this time around do you think? >> i think there's been some constraints on breeder supply. the primary breeders have not
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been able to supply the parent stock and -- for the integrators, and then i think there's some constraints on getting houses built. the industry has not built any houses for a long time, and i don't think there are builders out there that can go out and rapidly build houses. and i think there's a shortage of that, too. >> so, joe, when you're talking about houses, are you talking about plants? to laypeople like me, when i hear houses in the context of chick jennings, i'm not really sure what i'm thinking. >> it's -- it's the barns. the barns that chickens go in. there used to be many companies that built chicken houses, and those people are out of business and doing other things. there hasn't been any chicken
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houses built since 2006 and 7. >> on that same sort of point, joe, do you have plans for an increase in capex for a north carolina plant. they're thinking about $8 a share in 2015. there could be a special dividend or expense next year. can you tell us anything about your plans for that cash and whether $8 a share in 2015 sounds about right? >> well, we don't do projections. we're building a new plant right now in texas and everybody knows we want to build another plant in north carolina. that'll take 110, $20 million. that's money in the bank right now. so it -- we'll -- in october we'll make a decision. we did pay a special dividend this past year and increased our
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normal dividend. so in october of 2015 we'll look and see what we need to do. we like paying special dividends and returning cash to our shareholders. >> joe, we'll leave it there. thank you for phoning in. joe sanderson, sanderson farms. this is a trade in terms of short because a short interest particularly in the third quarter of this year really climbed on this notion that there is going to be an oversupply. right, exactly. >> it seems like it's a perfect storm for everything you laid out. corn prices were low and demand for chickens was high. now you're starting to see corn prices actually rally a little bit here. pilgrim's pride is up 100%. tyson is not a direct chicken placer. tiyson you get a little bit of the other proteins there. if you were to play this, hands off i would agree with the short side. corn prices are rallying off their bottom. >> if you take a look at the protein complex, beef prices are
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up. there was a record herd in july. >> i heard that. herd. okay. go ahead. that's utterly ridiculous. >> who's here? >> anyway. beef prices are high and so that might make chicken prices look even better. >> i have to think there's only so much you can push down on this. i think these guys actually delivered numbers today which were very good in line and close in a volatile sector as you can get. they beat them gross margin. they barely beat on the eps. i think those people trying to attack the underlying crawl space, they don't give forecasts. he won't tell you what this quarter looks like. that's what people can bet on. i think the stocks priced it in. still ahead, we're viewing a huge bullish bet on mcdonald's. is there an investor involved? we dig into that trade next.
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attack. bill akman helped push the stocks higher. mike's at the smart board with the latest. he'll probably do a better job. >> no question. >> buyers love it there. >> go ahead, mike. >> not so sure about that but three times the average daily call volume in mcdonald's. the unusual activity that we've been seeing this week continues today. a lot of that was actually the result of a single trade, the january 95 call around 10:00 this morning somebody came out and bought about 40,000 of those paying $1.40. that's $5.5 million worth of premium on a bullish bet that mcdonald's would be above 96.40 which was up 5.5% on january expiration. 28 days away. one of the things that you'll also notice is there's been so much options buying. dan highlighted this. it's been pushing up the price of options. this is the implied volatility with the price of mcdonald's
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options going back. you can see just how high it is. this is one of those names where we haven't really seen a good opportunity to own the stock and sell calls above it. if you're inclined to fade some of this activity, this might be the way to play it. the guy that bought those calls this morning is up $2 million already. >> karen, do you think that's here? >> i have a question for mike whether everyone wonders, giant trade like that, is it ackman. if you're an activist why would you buy a short dated call, you could lose your money, get a bad take for a month. why not just own it? why not buy the stock. i can understand if it were a call out of the money and much further out time wise. why this? >> one thing we have seen, we can look to office depot as an example. if you're acquiring the stock and the last thing you might go out and buy call options before you make an announcement, that might be a way to lever your bet without committing as much capitol as buying the stock.
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if he confirmed the rumors we would see the stock go higher. >> thanks for that. for more "options action" check out tomorrow's show. meantime, very big market today. we want to answer some of your questions out there. you tweet it, we trade it. here are the tweets you sent to our crews. how do you guys like financials into the end of the year and on into 2015. karen, why don't you take that? >> i like them. i've been in it a long, long time. i'll still be patient. i'd like to see the rates be higher. citi bank, jpmorgan, staying long. >> do you have to be a believer in the market in order to be a believer in the financials? >> yes. if you think growth is going to be cribbed here, you start to sell the financials. if it starts to pick up or move sideways, i'll probably spit it out. >> karen, you had a position in cullen frost, a short, which you covered. today jpmorgan had a piece out, if the u.s. economist had a
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piece out saying texas could face a recession. i wondered if you could comment on that based on the decline in oil. >> that was the thesis. it wasn't the energy assets, it was all of texas. yes, i would. the stock is down quite a blit. not right here i wouldn't. >> the whole look of the year. you have to play our game, would you rather. intel or qualcomm, tim? >> qualcomm. if you look at where the stock is priced for a lot of issues in china, a lot of issues unrelated to demand and some question about the royalty. this one it's at 71, 72 down to the bottom. it has not participated like some of the other stocks. intel is a much safer bet. qualcomm from a valuation perspective and growth perspective, much more interesting. intel, but would you rather, qualcomm? >> would you rather, qualcomm or intel? >> i'd rather intel. i'd much rather intel because of
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the dividend on the stock and where yields are going up. do you think in the shorter term three to six months it's going longer. >> let's get to go pro here? >> oh. >> can it go like a pro after lockup next week? what do you think? >> you know the way i feel on go proi. if the marketplace hasn't decided whether you're buying software, content company versus hardware company, i think either way there's a lot of competition entering the marketplace. really competitive, with taser there's so much competition out there i wouldn't be a buyer on this. >> stock's going to 45. the valuation is crazy and i think if you have a lockup that's concern for it. the level of the stock is where i traded to after the apo. >> i'm actually more with tim on this. i think 48 is where i'd start to look at it again. then i would be a buyer of this,
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you get a big spike down and reverse, that's will get the interest. >> we've got the trades for tomorrow. we come right back. stay tuned. (vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your
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your "fast money" family, guys. let's give you a very special shout out. >> look at that. >> if you're watching, guy, happy birthday. we miss you. you, of course, are our number one rocker of all time. >> that is fantastic. >> that's really him. >> looks good. >> i know the red ban dana, happy birthday, guy. >> happy birthday, guy. >> is it time? >> final trade. >> emerging markets did not take place. did not take part in today's rally. it was a decent rally the last couple of days. same issues, stronger dollar. >> grasso. >> dish network. they had a headline that they're adding the app. they're adding the hopper. i don't know what they're going to do. they seem like the innovators in
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the space. >> karen. >> if foot locker trades down on the nike news, buy it below 57. >> you know what traded light, gold. buy gdx. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks f my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. well, i'm trying to have more days like today. my job is not just to entertain but teach and put it in context. call me. or tweet me. @jimcramer. when you get a massive move like this
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