tv Fast Money CNBC December 19, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
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lee. >> i know you've been noticing the underperformance of google. since november, down about 8%, the xl tech is actually up a few percent, what gives? we get to the bottom of this with the top rank analysts and trader here. it is fast money friday. new york's time square. i'm melissa. brian kelly and giadani. is the doom and gloom nearly over? stocks nearing record highs but the dramatic decline in oil spooked the broader market. s&p and dow erased losses for december. oil up 4% alone and the sle energy up nearly 10% from the lows it hit earlier this week. is this the all-clear into the end of the year? pete najerian take it off. >> i don't know but i like it
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performing well. it's been the old tech names moving to the upside. hewlett packard, at least 52 week highs. ibm, $9 off the lows. i think they were sold off for the wrong reasons. i didn't see the connection everybody was making with the oil getting sold off and i like the way the financials are getting back as well. i think it's the right spots in the marketplace. those that have the valuation were the best up sides in the last rally. >> you have to ask yourself, what took us into the volatility period over seven sessions, dropped 100 s&p points and took a hundred back in three sessions. are we in any different of a place? the dollar went to a five year high. euro and yen are weaker. at some point, have people concerned but oil is the real question. if you believe oil is bottomed with a base here, that's going to give the market some comfort because perversely, oil price is not truth. i don't believe oil at $55 means the world is falling apart but
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people do. people say there's a lot of pressure on s&p earnings from oil alone. the energy sector, and therefore, you're at a place we're not far away from fourth quarter earnings. i don't know it will effect the year end but still in the same place you were when the market was very unsettled with all time highs and i would be selling the market for monday. >> i think there are many people out there who do believe oil is stabilizing but even if they don't believe oil is stabilizing, the fact oil at $40 a barrel has crept into the conversations of market people, there's a lot to be said for acceptance of worst case scenario. >> acceptance is what's happened over the last couple of days. we had high yield falling off, oil falling off and went to the brink, the point where people started to panic about all of these things and then came back. the usa headline, to the rescue. i don't know what to rescue from. calm down about this. >> the market on usa today headlines? >> yes, it is trading. >> that's the post of america.
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>> my point is exactly what tim's point is. nothing has changed since monday except for the sentiment of the market. could we go to the brink again? absolutely, why couldn't we? nothing has changed. i would be skeptical of this rally. doesn't mean i'm terribly barrish. just a market that whips off like this, you can't buy it with both hands on monday morning. >> stabilization of the ruble, i think telling the names on the names, when oil was lower, markets unchanged but the drillers rallied. we talked about sea droem rig. the one name on that tech, oracle performed well. that quarter was outstanding. probably a 12.5 times still cheap, and what we learned this week is the cyber security stocks, there's wind behind their sales. the palo alto and finally, fire hide caught today for at least which sony will use them now. >> would you step in on a fire eye stock with this bounce about
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a third? >> i've missed this run underneath $30 to $33 a share. i'd rather be something in the security space like f 5 networks or even go to intel because of the macafee exposure. this is a stock in the upper 70s and went to mid 20s. i think you're trying to catch something here. there's acceleration. people could be a takeout candidate. i don't know about that but if you're buying it on that, it's a risky bet. >> in the market going into next week, basically half of the market is on vacation next week. >> this is not a barish call. i won't assess where everybody is but because the market is selling off on monday we're at a place technically you run into resistance and this option is a very big deal. i think the street was very happy. the street sold a lot of volatility and happy to get it crunched. not to be overly technical about it and the option to talk about it but it's a case where the
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market wanted to go higher today. it did. i think you have a hangover on monday, very little in the way of catalysts and a lot of questions. >> it would be prudent to lighten up going into a light market. >> these trades have done very well in the last few days. >> okay, we ask because we're facing the end of the year. what are the best trades going into 2015? be particular. >> for me, it's blackberry. we had the earnings today which disappointed some. didn't disappoint me. i mean, john chinn has done everything he talked about in the last year. got the cash flow positive. disappointment in the morning. down 5.6%. and a two week trade here, the rally back today got me excited. blackberry into the end of the year. this is what i would buy. >> the fact it was down 7% and managed to finish down less than a percent. >> very encouraging. >> can i say happy birthday. you don't look a day over -- >> that was yesterday. >> you don't look a day over 60.
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>> that's not even remotely funny. >> they're laughing, i'm sorry. they're laughing. trade. >> hair club for men. that's not nice. i wasn't making fun of you. i just said. look at citi's note. twice as much they thought it was worth originally. not significant. very quietly, facebook is all of the sudden within a whisper of its all-time high, printed $80 today. we've been in the 80 for a while. i think the quarter into the end of january will be outstanding. i think last quarter was outstanding. people waking up to the instagram and facebook into the end of the year. >> pretty bolish year. when you look at the euro, five year lows. 2014 low, a place where you test the boundaries. this is absolutely a tail win
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for growth. the earnings differentials at 1.6 months achgo, very negative. a standard deviation event where european companies have to start to close the gap. in terms of valuation and dividend yield and where we are in the cycle, the ecb will be easing, the fed is not. underperformed 22% in dollar terms this year by owning the s&p against germany or france. so own ewg, ewq. that's my trade. >> boss? >> i would go for nike and underarmor because both were hit today. they did have projections going with a little bit of a slowdown. i don't think it was enough to justify where it got sold off to today. i think for that reason, that stock and underarmor down 2.5%. their growth is incredible. direct sales, everything in their entire chain, those are higher. some breaking news on the sony hacking incident. julia boorstin has the details
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in los angeles. >> reporter: that's right, sony clarifying the situation saying the goal has been to get the movie released and free expression should not be suppressed. here's a quote from the at the same time. it was a result of the majority of nation's theaters not to screen the film. this was their decision. the only decision in respect to release of the film was not to release it on christmas day in theaters after the theater owners. without theaters, we could not release it on christmas day. we had no choice. it goes on to say that they've been actively surveying alternatives to be able to re lease on a different platform, releasing digitally. it's our hope anyone who wants to see this movie will get the opportunity to do so. ceo michael linton in an interview airing on cnn 8 p.m. tonight that he's been looking for digital alternatives and
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that no digital distributor has come forward and said they will release the movie. no major digital distributor, of course, that raises questions about whether what netflix or youtube. >> joule yarks thanks for the update. not just oil rallying high today. goldman sachs ceo addressed the debt mark on the economy, it's a deal book conference last week. >> there's a lot of positives to the economy and i ticked through these things before from the energy situation to the resurgence of housing to the most important thing is having reversed all the leverage that was in the system and kind of reset the clock. >> ryan kelly does not agree, making his way over to the beakers. made a remarkable recovery up 5% from lows this week. >> and lloyd's half right. let's call it that. when you look at the financial
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system and his bank in particular, yes, a lot of leverage has been taken out. but let's look at what's going on in the high yield area. so this is the high yield option, basically, it's just the spread you get paid over treasuries to own high yield. typically that spread is going to be consisting of a credit risk, whether the company has a lot of business which we've been concerned about with the oil names. here's what the fed did. they told you they're going to compress volatility. they're going to take the risk of the market. in the last month or so, you start to see the price of risk go higher. that's because the fed said we're not going to be there anymore. there's now a risk that some of the companies default. not a big deal. you can get a reversion to the mean. in fact, i would argue it's probably good to have a rate that measures the actual risk in the system. but here's the big deal and here's why lloyd's only half right. there we go. this, okay, the orange line is corporate debt.
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it has skyrocketed and in fact, is at all time highs since the financial crisis. that is leverage. that's not a deleveraging event. where there is deleveraging is this here. look at this line. this is broker dealer balance sheets assets. that's credit asset. in other words, broker dealers are not holding inventory anymore. there's no ll liquidity in the system. when people sell the bonds because they're a little afraid of a credit risk, there's going to be nobody there to make the market and we saw that last week with no bids in the market. broker deal balance sheets are at lows. leverage is at highs. ultimately, that's a recipe for disaster. >> love you putting down. the only pushback, record levels except that it's been put on at record low levels so maybe that's sort of -- >> with healthier balance sheets. >> dissipates the effects.
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>> well, in the very short-term, right? but what are they doing with that? they're taking that low debt load and buying back stock. they're not putting into productive assets. when they go to turn this over, yields go higher. they're going to turn it over or be less likely to turn it over and buy stock. it won't make sense anymore or not going to be able to do it. at that point, that's when the economy contracts. >> your bottom line is the short hyy on short puts. >> the market is not pricing in the risk. you're not getting compensated at all for the liquidity risk. stocks have a major rebound. google left in the dust. stocks down 15%. is google now dead money? that's next on fast. in this accident... because there was no accident. volvo's most advanced accident avoidance systems ever.
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>> three issues. ad dollars are flowing out of google into other apps and web sites. secondly, concerns about the european commission potentially firing an antitrust suit against google and seeing what happened to microsoft when that happened and lastly, google doesn't have strength in social and realtime communications. the concern is that there's google getting hit from one of these three factors. >> are those three concerns not valid? >> we ran a search conference not too long ago and talked to a lot of agencies and advertisers. they're staying with google, not moving elsewhere. people are pulling budgets from other sources. secondly, the antitrust thing could be an issue. it's still early, the u.s. tried to build a very big case against google. it came out to be nothing. we think google will probably offer a lot more concessions. and then finally, you know, on the social side, i think that isn't an issue and that's a
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concern, but it's still early days and i think the market is big enough for a google and facebook to survive. >> you've got facebook, twitter on the market. snap chat, all of these different apps out there. pair this though with the concern that perhaps growth is actually slowing because in the third quarter, the revenue growths dropped below 30% for the first time. aren't these valid concerns? in the universe, is google among a top pick of yours or others with better profiles? >> facebook is our top pick but two is definitely google. we like google for a few reasons. one, the company is still executing on mobile and we think 2015, we see more ad dollars into mobile. two, we don't think amazon is going to take a lot of advertising dollars away from google anytime soon and google express, trying to move into the amazon wheel house. we see two companies going to war there and thirdly, we think
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google can get social signals over time but it's still early. we see what happens on that front. >> neil doeshi, thank you. we've been talking about this on the desk. very frustrating. >> last $60 on google, i don't see major catalysts but one of the names i feel comfortable because i don't see major deterioration. i see the competitive landscape changing for them and a lot of issues that are okay questions. i think they need to give capital back to investors. i think people are worried about how they're spending and all of the speculative stuff they're investing in. 490, very careful. i think you're a buyer to that point on the weakness and play it to 580. that's fair value for a lot of guys on the street. >> google or boba? >> boba, i'm a big believer in this. huge size coming out there. people looking for some upside moves in baba.
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i like the name and haven't seen a reason to turn this name. i think it will test 120 and through. >> time for pops and drops speed. foot locker, 7%, tim? >> this guy taking down a competitor finish line but their numbers before they came out today, people looking at the multiples saying it's a risk weren't time and looking like a risky play from 30 to 40. seems to cap at 58. a lot of province here, people did. i don't think you need to run back. >> madison square garden at 3%. >> this stock back in october when they talked about splitting and now they're actually trying, the board is considering a different style of splitting. either way, people expect to see the stock a lot higher. be able to unlock some of the value. i agree with them. i'm not in the name but i think it's going hyper. >> t.o. >> crude numbers, i think to the upside going to flush shorts out
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and do it again. i think it trades north of 21. >> jc penny down 3%. >> apparel sales lagging for the next five years. j.c. penny being one of them. forever 21 was mentioned. i would stay away from this. i think it's clear. >> actually guys shop there. we have the video of it. apple under pressure of the treatment of factory workers. we tell you what tim cook is staying. watch more "fast money" ahead.
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joining us. you're normally based in china so it's a pleasure to have you here at the nasdaq. it's a black eye for labor practices. what are they doing at this point? >> they've put in place new standards to improve workers conditions and what was surprising about this entire thing was the bbc investigation made such a splash because they, the british news organization basically sent reporters undercover to one of the factories to a pegatron and said they were violation of apple's own standards. excessive working hours and also, cramped dormitories but the most troubling was some of the workers complained that the managers were holding on to their ids. that's not allowing them to have freedom of movement. so tim cook, as well as apple had released a statement saying they were deeply offended by the results of this investigation
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because they have, as you said, put in place so many different measures in order to try to improve the rights of these workers. >> don't they also conduct their own studies on their suppliers? they have a team that travels around to these factories. >> absolutely, they do. that's one of the reasons why they were so deeply offended. for me, myself, i have not been to that particular factory, but i have, as you said, been around a lot of the factories of the suppliers and i've spoken to a lot of the workers, especially the ones at foxcon and they often say that the conditions are improving and that the jobs are well paid for a chinese context. the work, they say, is very repetitive, incredibly stressful. that's the nature of the product they make. it's highly sophisticated technical product. they have to be perfect every single time. there's a high burnout rate over a number of years, they're just going to do it, make a lot of money and then go home. but the overall conditions are
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improving at the factories and it's also not only because companies like apple are constituting new standards but because of the economic conditions and the dynamics of the economy are changing where workers are much more educated. they already have become much more demanding, so because of that, you know, you really see that, as a trend, as a larger trend, the workers' conditions are actually improving. >> eunice, thank you for coming by. cnbc. they have this blackout report. that affected the stock but in terms of apple? >> i listened to one lady the last seven years and it's been katie hueberty. they'll beat expectations and eunice, you talk about the conditions, i think that part is all something they're actually working through as well. the final train. tim? >> frontier markets, this is a longer term. >> i like this big cap oil. cvx going higher.
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>> i'm going to put money where my mouth is. selling short. >> pete? >> happy birthday on monday. spirit airlines gets it done. >> that does it for us here on "fast money." i'm melissa lee. thank you so much for watching. see you on monday. break out in 2015, find out when options actions starts right after this break. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.
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tonight, a week after stocks tank, they're back to where they were before. confused, relaxed. we have a strategy to make you money whether stocks go up, down, or nowhere at all. plus, growing pains. stocks surge high, netflix and amazon have been left in a dust. are they set to rally? >> up from the 36 chambers. >> is this man keeping shares of cisco down? we tell you why a new face can revive an old tech name. the action starts right now.
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