dow up. great to have you back. welcome back from texas, brian. >> thank you very much. "closing bell" is next. and welcome to "the closing bell" on this monday. a holiday week. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange where last week's rally carried over into today. >> for most sectors. the dow is strong. don't look now but the industrial average within striking distance of the all-time high and others did not follow through. yeah, the s&p up 4 points. and then the nasdaq up 7. when you look at did gains today, it really is a lot of dow

stocks, 25 of the 30 are positive so far today and we're keeping an eye on energy again, as well. >> exactly. down here, one of the indexes that will often list up here on the boards is energy index. look at that one off 122 points. again, just reiterating the pressure seen, renewed on crude oil today and down another 3% settling around 55 bucks and change. natural gas by the way. it's had a 10% move lower in 2 sessions. >> i was going to say. see how nimble they are in the booth? we know they are but let's see if they can show us natural gas because it is down sharply and for good reasons if you like warm weather. >> yes. correct. >> the so-called i-95 corridor on the east coast expected warmer than expected temperatures over next ten days or so and that's taken the wind out of the sails, plus that inventory report of last week. >> right. flip side, not so good stuff with the energy complex is a move on the rating side you heard on the european oil majors

and again some talk of whether we are seeing a bottom or not on these prices amid renewed if you will indications of the middle east, saudi arabia, they're not cutting back production any time soon. >> all right. let's talk about it for this monday as we get thinged started on. david kudlow. beth ann bovino. joe durant. quincy crosby. and rick santelli is in chicago, as well. beth ann, we have had the debate of the decline in oil and net-net is a positive or a negative for the u.s. economy. you're siding on the positive side. why? >> absolutely. well, first of all, i want to put it in perspective. the u.s. economy has been doing rather well and without this oil boom, it's actually a positive. but one of the reasons why we see this as a positive, think about if now gallon of gas is dropped about a dollar since june or july, that means that

for every person who the average person spends about or buys about 500 gallons of gas a year, that means 500 extra bucks in the pocketbook and they need that for this -- as they go into the holiday season for some of those presents. that's a win-win. other nonenergy businesses will boom from basically cheaper costs in terms of transportation and electricity. so a positive. >> you know, rick, i don't mean to spring this on you but i was reading earlier today on a write-up and a point to be made of coming to the federal reserve and what it should do, if we had some kind of, say, gdp target that took all of this into account with maximizing growth, for example, instead of a target that was pulling together unemployment and inflation and these things, don't you think that would be a simpler message that everybody could follow and understand here? >> i wish i could say yes but i think gdp is a bad metric in

that regard. i don't think there is an easy metric, i could mold statistics than than clay and make them say anything you want. you know? the president pointed to how great the metrics are and most of the things he quoted are correct but what we can't tell is exactly, you know, which jobs created, how many were part time. we get close. industries that don't pay as well may created the most jobs. we have heard a couple of pieces on that, actually, today. so there isn't one easy metric. i think the easiest metric of all is a metric we don't like to hear an answer. americans asked how they feel about the economy, many americans still think we near a recession and i think that speaks volumes. i do think the monthly jobs number, if you just take it at face value, they have improved and i think it is about jobs, jobs, jobs. >> all right. >> i think that the downside is as we need to create more jobs that pay a little bit better but

then again those that don't have skills, there's really no place to hide and we need to grow the economy from an education standpoint, as well. >> with those, you know, i guess you would say with that kind of skepticism about the growth of the economy and, you know, rick's quite right. there are plenty of people out there still not convinced that this economy is on firm -- terra firma right now. the stock market is knocken on all-time doors right now. you're convinced we have room to go. why? >> take the gdp numbers averaging around 4% growth. and with the fourth quarter coming in, we think we'll still be around 4% growth for the three quarters but on main street, there are many people, i'm here in michigan. many people don't feel that, they don't feel like we have ever really come out of a recession because the growth despite a couple of quarters has been more anemic. >> how do you reconcile that

difference, that gap that exists between wall street and main street? this is in the the first time. how do you reconcile those two, the vastly different outlooks of both? >> i think because the growth has been except for more recently more anemic and until that follows to the broader public and they feel that and jobs numbers continue to come through, housing continues to improve which we saw a little bit of setback today, general public just -- the anemic growth fe feels like a recession. that's why the market continues to do well. >> i'd add one thing to that. what you are seeing as balance sheet improvement for five years so people with wealth feel better about the economy than people who live paycheck to paycheck. you have a big appreciation of home prices. >> sure. >> and the stock market and those that have savings in the 401(k) have done very well and you haven't seen is if you are paycheck to paycheck, you have

not participated because there's not been income recovery. >> right. that's why, joe, the interesting question of 2015 starting to see this out there, i think bank of america-merrill lynch saying 2015 the year to buy main street and wall street and thinking about that with meredith whitney over the weekend and made bets on the sort of middle american public if you will that don't appear to be working out. where do you think here the trade lies? is it time with the drop of oil prices and bet ore main street if you will for 2015? >> i think for 2015, make three bets. one, there will be more volatility. second, interest rates will be going up. they've told us that. you want larger company that is have the ability to withstand higher interest rates and third you want to know that you're participating in a global middle market that is are happening everywhere. so i really like still the mega caps because they participate in all three in dollar denominated terms.

and they have flexibility. if we see higher volatility you want to be in larger names and so i think you're going to see again the russell which is not done very well this year continue to underperform and i think we might see a multi-year period where you are way better off being in larger companies, well-known brands that the middle class consumer wants to own. middle class consumers like to buy brands and aspirational, large brands are very, very interesting. >> i would add -- >> i would be very careful about the global growth story, though. we have strong growth here in the u.s., europe is hurting. japan we think abe-nomics is flawed and a technical recession now. we have the slowdown in china so these big mega cap companies as much as they're exporting, we have a stronger dollar, i would look the other way and look towards small caps to be in 2015. >> okay. we have a trade here now.

all right. joe's got some small caps to sell you. quincy, if rates are to begin rising and they have started at this point, not in a concerted way but a rise since last week's fed meeting, is that good or bad for stocks down the road? >> i think that the first actual rate hike and maybe second may give the markets some difficulties or let me put it this way. the anticipation of it i think will give the market difficult it is you but as long as we have growth underneath it, at some point the market will absorb it and move on the way they did after the termination of qe. getting rid of considerable time and now patient. patient will go away and you're going to get the beginning of the rates but the point is, that as long as there is growth underpinning it, i think the market could do very well. we did with 4% in the interest

rates and i remember 5% interest rates as long as there is growth. >> yeah. >> i was going to ask whether you would bet on the traditional rising rate names and the insurance space, for example. look at the two-year or the 10-year moving higher and the longer end isn't moving and do you think it's moving? does that mean we shouldn't just assume that those longer dated plays work next year? >> you know, the fact of the matter is if we could get europe out of the picture for a little bit and have a little bit of calm in the markets, we'll get a steep in the yield curve and good for financials and see some of the big big banks begin to sweeten their dividends and some actually introduce dividends. so, they're attractively priced and with the new congress coming in, we may have easing of the pressure of regulators. >> all right. last word to beth ann.

you have been very patient economist there. as our conversation steered toward this wall street versus main street, does the lagging main street make wall street the stock market more vulnerable going into 2015? >> what i was going to comment on with joe mentioned was that what haven't seen throughout most of this recovery is wages. paychecks have been pretty much flat, real wages pretty much flat throughout this recovery. i think 2015 to start to see a net gain. we are expecting to see with basically the quit rate now at a six-year high, the short-term unemployment rate now 7-year low, those are indicators that suggest to start to see wage gains pick up next year and expecting. main main win it is day. >> we'll leave it on that hopeful note. thank you, everybody, this afternoon. >> see you later. all right.

49 minutes left. is this the high of the day? >> yes, it is. >> i think it is. up 122. moving back to the high of the day. it has been the perform of the majors. s&p and nasdaq also higher but not by as much. >> spitting distance of the 18,000 level. stocks may be surging but oil and natural gas prices keep plunging. how low can prices go? is it bad for the markets and the economy? that's next. retail index is outperforming the broader markets over the last month or so but history suggests you may want to sell the retail stocks before grossing out the year. that's still to come on closing bell. stay tuned. ♪ i love my meta health bars.

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welcome back. rally day again after last week's fed meeting. the dow up 117 right now. just off the highs of the session. the s&p up 5.25 and nasdaq up. energy sharply lower. nat gas is killed. >> this sea of green is as energy commodities are crushed again. >> jackie deangelis breaking down the big losses and including for natural gas, as well, as the nymex.

>> good afternoon to you guys. we did see selling pressure in oil at the close. we did see wti down $1.83 closing at $55.26 but i would say that we have seen a lot steeper selling pressure than this. the fact we're over 55 on wti and over 60 on brent right now means that the market is still kind of treading water and feel things out at this point. of course, more comments out of saudi arabia saying this it's not going to cut production a. lot of people saying saudi's trying to sell the market, not scare it, reassuring and don't see a need to panic. still, gas prices on the other hand still declining, guys. $2.39 according to aaa. down 85 cents from last year. consumers saving $420 million a day on gas since the highs. nat gas crushed here. 9% on the day. $3.14. when it came below $4 and $3.50,

no one was expecting this but talking about $3 nat gas if mother nature doesn't send wild weather our way. put this altogether in context for consumers, it's really good news throughout with the holiday shopping, paying less to fuel the automobiles. paying less to heat their homes and they like that, guys. back to you. >> they do, jackie. especially the one next to me. thank you so much. just what impact will such low energy prices have on our economy, sfwhil. >> we have expert halima kroft. i can remember a few years ago we were saying what in the world -- why is oil going as high as it is and staying there? this premium built in. now going the other direction asking the same question. why is it going as low as it is right now? >> i think the comments over the weekend of the saudi oil minister said we won't do anything to help it recover and prices to $20 a barrel and not going to step in so the saudis,

other gulf states, not providing reassurance to remove barrels. so that's why we're treading water at this point. >> they're not the agitator, are they? they're on the back foot, aren't they? aren't we in a situation of much of the supply coming on in the u.s. is supply that's productive, at least for now, profitable, anyway, that's putting a lot of these traditional producers in a tough spot. ironically, the more it declines the more they have to keep pumping in order to maintain their coffers, don't they? >> this is what's fascinating. the staudis said we may have to borrow and playing for the medium term. if we can keep prices down, we can price out the most expensive, non-opec marginal barrel and might be scorched earth. see how much you can take out and live to fight the next day. >> for how long? venezuela can't afford this at all. russia, outside opec can't afford this at this point. and now here in the united states. the shale oil producers.

>> right. even, frankly, with saudi arabia it is a bit of a gamble and some people in the media, private sector essentially saying, come on. you know? how long are we going to keep this strategy up? can you give us a sense of duration? it's a pain threshold and venezuela's the first one to watch. debt payment in march. the saudis can hold out. >> what about the russians, especially as congress or is it congress or the president just approved new sanctions? >> haven't been signed but it's amazing, new congressional sanctions essentially penalize any foreign company willing to invest in arctic, shale, deepwater. potentially slows further the growth of russian production over the medium term and the pain is worse for putin in terms of sanctions and low oil price. >> that's why it goes back to saudi arabia. even if they -- what would they have to say to put a floor under oil here? >> yeah. >> i understand the numbers and how big, what would be their bazooka, the equivalent, what would they have to say or do for oil to find a bottom here?

>> some of the physical market is tightening and libya production is m coing off and seeing russian decline rate is high this year but will the saudis come out with russia and say, okay, collectively, 2 million is coming off the market. it would have to be a pretty big cut to comfort the market. >> is this a time or a price to cry uncle at? >> i think it is more time. the question is venezuela could hit an immediate wall with the debt payment and they're powerless. what can they do? not much. it's question of duration for the gulf states. >> how about the shale producers and who are already feeling some pain because of the debt levels and so forth? >> absolutely. i think the saudis are watching that. how many rigs are coming off? >> i think watching closely how much non-opec supply to get shut in? >> following the rig count

closely? >> absolutely. i think basically watching to see, just also arctic, brazil. watching the whole non-opec complex. >> we're now seeing the increased amount of headlines about wall street firms getting out of the commodities business. >> that didn't take listening. >> players emerging to indicate just how involved they were. in other words, other people involved in commodities during the if you will run-up, the bubble almost, now getting out. does that reiterate that it's going to be order for prices to rebound from here? >> i still remain an optimist. i look at 2016 and say, wait a second. rig counts taken down and we still have a lot of fragile producers and demand should pick up and it could be setting the stage for 2016 for a rebound in prices. >> 2016? >> maybe the back half of 2015 but 2016 i expect prices to recover. >> she lied. this is the last question. how low could we go? >> that's the big question. could you touch 50? i think we could.

when you have that 40 number thrown out there -- >> what was that? 33 and change at the low? >> that's right. there's no floor for opec right now. >> will i pay $1 something for gasoline again? they are in oklahoma and texas. i'm hearing from them. i'm waiting for the northeast here. that would be something. good to see you. >> thank you, thank you. >> she's chief commodities strategist at rbc markets. >> you mr. $1, in connecticut, $3.99 to fill up. >> still? >> yes, still. >> wow. >> hard out there. >> blame your energy taxes. >> no, absolutely. i know. about 40 minutes to go here into the close. we're keeping an eye despite everything, exxon is barely down today. the dow having a strong session, up 123. >> we'll send you home with a gallon of gas just to -- >> i'm going to start an interstate gasoline arbitrage. i think it's called driving.

>> the rush is on for a last-minute holiday shopping. when we come back, we're going to hear from somebody who says that investors should not be caught up in all the hype about retail. why he says stay away from retail stocks as we go into the new year. that's still ahead here. also, what does bruce willis have to do the bank russia bailed off with the plunging ruble? this unbelievable story is later. stay tuned. you total your brand new car.

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welcome back. here's what's happening out there. dow up 135. we're only 20 points off the record high and exxon fractionally lower. tough day for oil as people think it can avord some of the outcomes of the smaller, weaker, heavily indebted rivals. >> black friday gets the fair share of attention for officially kicking off the holiday shopping season and may be super saturday. did you know it was super saturday last week? that may matter more. >> i didn't know. the last weekend before christmas is the race to the finish line for shoppers and retailers. let's check in with kate rogers. >> this weekend on super saturday shoppers were getting

it done the old-school way. they were going to stores rather than shopping online as the clock ticks awe at the final opportunities to complete the shopping list. analysts saw increased foot traffic as consumers feeling the sting of last year's delivery debac debacle. saturday was the number one sales day of the year for retailers raking in as much as $10 billion in sales alone. now, today and tomorrow, they're also expected to be heavy shopping days which are ranked number four and number ten in terms of sales for the year f. that forecast is right, it's the first time in a decade that super saturday outpaces black friday's estimated $9.1 billion in sales. analysts say black friday is less of a one-day sale and thanksgiving bringing in $3.2 billion and if you're wondering who's shopping in the last few days to fill the stockings, we are hearing that it's the men

who are the procrastinators. they're apparently just getting started on the list, making this the time for cosmetics, perfume and those will be the most popular in the days leading up to christmas. back to you. >> i was just about to say i'm done and then mentioned stocking stuffers. whoops. forgot those. >> we know where you're going after the show. >> thank you, kate. >> cnbc.com senior editor says investors shouldn't buy into the hype. >> i mean, you're saying maybe it's too late to get into the stocks. >> like we just heard, so there's so much late shopping, individual days don't matter as much as they used to. the earlier staseason starts ea. it ends later. they buy 60% of the goods and that $800 on average and not enough to make a difference. xrt, it's one of the worst possible trades you can make from now until the end of the

year. truly one of the worst. you want to stay away from it. >> doesn't participate in the santa claus rally? >> no. it's better off earlier. at this point it's too late. >> it would have to be new information this time of year, in other words, an unusually large amount of dollars spent unusually late in the season. priced in, right? >> yeah. hearing billions and billions of dollars, it's priced in. look at gold miners, banks, especially regional banks and even real estate. these are almost guaranteed to make you money. >> gold miners? >> yeah. gold miners. that etf by far the best one. >> santa claus rally? >> from now until the end of the year. >> do you know why? >> i think because if you look at overall effect of that january effect, and then people start looking into the calendar in december and start getting ready for it. >> to put new money to work. >> yeah. gold is one of the thing that is's not a real stock. they don't trade like gold per se. >> every year you hear from the people saying this is the year

that gold breaks out and every year lately the hopes are dashed. >> people move away from retailer and go into gold. retail is worst and gold is the best trade starting right now. >> focusing on energy right now. how does it play snout. >> energy is actually one of the best trades to make. energy is really good. >> a bounce here? >> yeah. that's a bounce of metals, mining, stay away retailer and utility. >> you're talking about averages? >> averages and the frequency of positive trades. so these good trades are up 75% of the year is going back and 3 to 1 you make money on them. >> i don't know. i still feel like the reason why these segments make me uncomfortable i feel like so much changes, like, for example, you have an oil price collapse, how relevant 3 out of 4 times it would have rallied? >> you just retail's always a bad choice. >> all right. good to see you. if you want to read more, cnbc.com. breaking news on comcast and

time warner. julia boorstin has that for us. >> that's right. fcc delaying the merger again. this time, it's because of some document production issues. meaning they have not produced the proper documents for the fcc in a timely manner. comcast with statement saying they will be making additional production today, tomorrow and confident any outstanding documents will be produced in an expedited manner. this allows staff to review the new materials and remain on track for the transaction review concluded in early 2015. we are pleased that the fcc did not delay the deadline so that work on the transaction will continue and we'll be filing the final comments tomorrow and should not delay the total approval but the delay within the process. back over to you. >> the wheels of government slowly turning. >> may explain why this wasn't more reaction in the share

prices for now. thank you. heading toward the close here. i haven't seen art cashin walking around here. buy or sell pressure to the close and it's buy pressure so far. we were up 137 a moment ago. >> i was trying to talk about $3 a gallon for a fill-up. it was $2.99. not $3.99. then the joke would be on me if anybody fills up at that price. >> $2.99 sounds about right. >> existing home sales sclumping to a 6-month low in november. why is housing cooling off as stocks have been heating up? that's next. and forget about china, india, brazil. coming up, we'll tell you why africa may be the hottest and biggest growth investment and a great opportunity to play old toto song, as well. you won't believe how companies trying to get in the door early in africa. stay tuned.

boy, the rally continues. the dow up another ten points in the last few minutes and now a

gain of 142 points and, boy, we are a sand wedge away from 18,000 on the industrial average. >> 11 points shy of the prior closing high from december 5 wthd the super strong jobs number and closing 17,958 and change and now 17,946. >> good gains there. >> today existing home sales taking a little bit of a dive. down 6.1% to just under 5 million. could be another case of bad news is good news, though, because this report unlikely to push the fed toward an early hike in interest ratd interest make s the market happy. >> we have to guests. fred, i mean, you -- i was just looking at the notes here. you say 2015 could be one of the greatest years of real i state if and only if oil prices stay

low. low interest rates haven't done it all these years and takes low oil prices to make better real estate. >> nope. as i have been saying for years, bill, it is all about jobs and confidence. so now what you have is a situation where we're going to keep these low interest rate farce long time. price of oil has come down. people have a few more bucks in their pocket they're starting to spend, happy about spending it. so now they get a little more confident. now a few more people get employed. this is all going to turn around to a happiness and i call it the axis of housing happiness in that you have jobs, you have low oil prices and you have low interest rates so people are now happy to sit around and let me stay here. this is great. i love it here. happiness. it's all it is. >> sherry, when's your outlook for housing in 2015? >> 2015 is going to be a great year for housing, kelly. part of the reason is slow start

in '14. ending not so great and what happened in between is pushing us in the right direction. we're going to see the same thing in 2015 and end up in 2016 with 5.5 million in home sales versus 5 million this year. a biggy is the fact of folks struggling with foreclose yurls and negative equity to get past that this year and the first year that the nation recovered and it's going to be driven by a bunch of people on that happy axis. we'll have first-time buyer who is i think exceed their 40% historic average in terms of participation. boomers with the sheer numbers a big impact on housing, especially in the regions to retire to and of course we will have the boomerang buyers who sat out the mandatory waiting period and get back into housing. housing's going to be -- really nice things in 2015. >> everybody loves the real estate market for 2015 and here comes the federal reserve. fred, they're going to raise

interest rates. maybe as early as april if we believe the tea leaves that janet yellen was spreading out last wednesday. that takes away one of your triangle there. >> no. no way. and even if they do for a second, people ignore it. >> they won't raise rates? >> no. >> bill, people need a place to live. >> yeah. >> alternative is to rent and rents are going up faster than interest rates. >> exactly. >> rates are not a big obstacle. >> it is easier for first-time buyers to get in. 100% gifts allowed on 5% down conventional loans. i don't ever remember that in the history of fannie mae. that's going to open up so many more people to get in and get mortgages now. >> fred, how did you feel about housing in 2006? >> hah! 2006 was the -- >> do you remember? >> yeah. i remember. i always said that the people -- i asked people, what was your

house worth in 2005? i said that's basically what it's worth after the 2008 crash. 2006 was the beginning. it was the beginning of the end. it was just like, here's all these stupid loans and like -- ugh. doesn't make any sense. >> we're not going to see a repeat of that, kelly -- >> no that's done. >> the real issue is they haven't figured out the new market. we have new products. we have the safe hay boar qm loans, rebuttal presumption qm loans and non-qm loans and the origination costs are still high. the products are limited, the products to offer and the costs to charge customers are limited and they haven't come close to pricing the risk and we don't have to worry about another subprime bubble until investors and originators make as much money as they did in 2004 and 2005. that's years off.

>> sure, nobody's not going to take a mortgage because they don't make money. there are -- mortgage banking side it's a might their with the cfpb but it will be better. >> we may see rates impacting builders but this is the year of the homebuilder. >> thank you both. >> happy holidays. >> i sense we're both skeptical. a pleasant surprise if housing picks up as they suggest in 2015. meanwhile, the dow -- >> now you leave me hanging out there. >> 17,950. no. i'm just thinking it through. a lot of themes in there. we should take a look at the builders, in fact, at that etf and note that the s&p 500 is trading at 2078 about right now and should be a record high. >> why is the music louder? they want us to stop? will the momentum deliver a

year-ended santa claus rally for investors? we'll talk about that coming up. how can sony prevent itself from another cyber-attack streaming "the interview" online? will you watch it if it's released that way? your chance to weigh in coming up. if every u.s. household with a computer used sleep mode when they weren't using it, how much could we save on electricity each year? up to $1 billion? $3 billion? $4.5 billion? the answer is... up to $4.5 billion. using your computer's built-in energy-saving features can generate real household savings. take the energy quiz -- round 2. energy lives here.

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welcome back. dow within points of closing here at an all-time high. dominic chu with the big movers. dom? >> handful of points. see if they help. defense sector, lockheed martin, raytheon and northrop grumman, surging. facebook hitting an all-time high today in part of mobile advertising growth and up more than 200% since going public back in may of 2013. different story for gilead sciences. x scripts dropped their drug for a cheaper version to be on the plans. they moved higher on the ground. and natural gas stocks took a hit as prices plum meted. ultra petroleum, chesapeake energy, range resources to the downside and the very volatile

energy trade still continues into the year end, guys. back over to you. >> thanks. >> with our bob pisani, when's the mood? >> energy. again. what happens when you have high dividends and real livety high capital expend yours, credit issues. s&p came out, waiting for them to say something about the oil names, european oil names. all talking about, listen, debts, high, dividends, high, oil main asset dropping, you could have credit problems a s essentially what they were talking about. isn't this the time to buy energy? in theory. the problem is the earnings expectations are still very high. anadarko nearly 30 times 2013 earnings. exxon 19 times 2015 earnings. these are not cheap right now.

they're still going to have to come down more here. dominic mentioning chesapeake. some of the shale plays are starting to look very cheap. probably 13 times forward earnings. a lot of names i could put up a bunch of them, now, guys, you are starting to interest me. back the you. >> all right. bob, thank you for now. that's bob pisani on the flor. >> the dow up 113 points right now. the rally continues from last week. ever since the fed meeting. >> yes. like a spring. we have jonathan and david murray, there they are. >> can you tell them apart? >> by the way, on that you are outlo outlook, a bull/bear twin showdown when we come right back. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things,

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all right. ten minutes to go. we were up 155. record territory. art said we have about $450 million to sell into the close but that's not a big number but might be just enough to take the edge off this rally we have been seeing here. >> hey, you are not seeing double here. we have a couple of guys that look alike with different views on the market.

joining us now are jonathan murray and david murray. welcome to you both. >> who's the bull and the bear. >> i'm da bull. perennial bull. >> were you bullish before? >> i was bullish 200% ago before it went up and 49, new highs this year. just -- i think it is time -- >> david, you have turned cautious now. why? >> prudent. saz i said, the market's up 200% since its low. that's a heck of a run. valuations aren't screaming by -- >> not bad. >> they're not bad. they're in check. 16 times earnings. something like that. where will you put your money? bond? commodities? >> good time to take chips off the table. be smart. don't be greedy. >> where will you put them? >> not having a whole lot of cash isn't a terrible thing at all. 15%, 20% cash, depends on you as an investor.

>> earning a whopping 0.01%. >> where are you putting your money? >> dividend-paying companies. international markets. >> i do like that. the emerging markets are looking really attractive. >> even with the dollar strengthening the way it is? >> we are contrarians. i love to take a broader look at stuff out of favor for two or three years and to carefully deploy capital that way. it's kind of basic and what our parents taught us of averaging in, don't be greeding. >> your parents did? >> our dad did. >> and you listened? >> more mom than dad. >> is there a prudent side to your portfolio? are you edging in any way here? >> yeah. i think one of the thing investors don't do is add alternatives enough. >> like? >> i think whether you're looking at credit or looking at long/short, commodities.

maybe oil. i think on this weakness, look at adding alternatives. >> talk to your advisers of what does well when interest rates go up. the treasury from 6 to 2. >> right. >> since, you know, last five or -- >> stocks. >> falling interest rates. what does well when interest rates go up? they will. >> what is your answer to that? >> stocks! >> non-core lated assets. and stock that is have good dividend downside. >> innovation in the country is awesome. cancer therapeutic or water technology, just awesome. and to be an investor, that's what you're investing in. own blue chip -- >> look at high-yield bonds and bond funds. haven't fared terribly when interest rates go up. >> all i know is people told us how to position every year for interest rates going up. i hope you have to figure that out. >> they've been wrong for three years. >> do you do this around the

table? >> no. we get together in pittsburgh with dad and very boring. >> they love it. price earnings ratios. >> we have your mom on the line. >> no. >> c-span had a similar. i don't know if you saw this. they had a similar lineup not long ago on the political realm. they had a conservative and a liberal and the mom called in. >> they were twins? wow. >> i did see that. mom calling in a minute. we'll be back with the guys here in a moment with the closing countdown. >> after the bell, consumers are loving impact of oil prices on the trips to the gas stations. that's coming up. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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three minutes left in the trading day. this is what the dow did today. a bit of a rally on the open this morning and moved higher into the close. we are just off the highs here with a gain of 147 points. we are very close to an all-time high and see if we can do that. what went lower? oil again. do you know that price of gasoline in this country national average gone down 88 consecutive days. that's a record, by the way. let me show you oil price. wti crude, $55 a barrel. has been the price today. any moment now wti crude.

or maybe not. and natural gas also got hit big time today with a decline of 9% on this expectation that the weather is warmer than had been earlier forecast and one one other thing to tell you about, facebook hit an all-time today. the market cap for facebook $270 billion. >> isn't this amazing? >> unbelievable. david and jonathan murray. switched places. didn't think i would notice. >> testing you. >> nothing is lost on you. >> would you buy a facebook at these levels here? >> it is a great example of how you don't know what the next facebook is going to be or google will be. the best way to own those kinds of companies in my opinion is through a mutual fund where you have a person at the helm to pick them. >> yeah. these guys are industry analysts, experts. they know ahead of time what the big institutions are thinking and doing. too much of a dice roll for most people. >> best investment idea for 2015 from the murray brothers? >> have a plan. have a plan. we don't plan enough and now's a

perfect time, bill, at the end of the year, get together with your loved ones. put a plan in writing. whether it's saving more money, spending less, who are you going to leave your money to. >> i didn't expect something so practical. i thought maybe you would say tesla or -- >> that's the sexy things. >> too micro. >> but in reality, a perfect -- >> what's the average 401(k) balance today? >> like $27. >> there's a crisis facing this country and that is that americans are woefully underprepared for their retirement and started with a plan. >> you're 20% cash. so something's got to be in the market here. >> i like jonathan. i think that big multi-cap companies with strong dividend yields and those to benefit of a strong dollar. you know, non-u.s. manufacturing, for example. but again, mutual fund expert that is know the companies. >> while we talk, the market going higher. >> of course. >> what do you know? .

great to see the murray brothers. >> markets go down but they never stay down. >> words of wisdom. happy holidays. thank you for being with us today. a gain of 155. i think just about there. we'll talk about that coming up now on the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans and company. see you tomorrow, kelly. thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans. it appears we're going out on record highs. adding 157 points, i believe at 17,962, if we stayed right here, that's good enough for a record high and same goes for s&p 500 at 2078. up 8. the nasdaq up and laggard on the day only up about a third of 1%. let's talk about it with michael black, with sharon epperson and

john nejarian and guy adami. welcome, everybody. michael, first one here, record highs, still an affect of janet yellen? been a straight vertical line up since the fed zwigs last week. >> yeah. i don't give janet yellen credit for it. i'm still getting over the fed statement. there's hawkish parts, dovish parts and yet that's the impetus. we got it out of the way. >> a question and answer for everyone. sharon, is this janet yellen or others? >> retail investors realizing to max out the 401(k) contributions and put as much into the accounts before the end of the year as they can and doing some book squaring with their own personal accounts and doing that with the financial advisers before they go away for the holiday. >> john? >> lower for longer, rates and energy prices.

both are great for the economy going forward, kelly. into 2015. and i think people once we stopped going down as hard as we were going down in energy every day seemingly finding some footing around the low 50s for crude oil, u.s. wti, i think that's when the market really found its base. >> guy, to you, what do you think here? accounted for this sharp snap. >> a question, kelly, blind faith belief that the fed has our back. that's all. you can't -- there's no real other explanation for it given the comments and the move. it's all fed all the time. great while it lasts. blind faith as i said was a great band, great first album and only great album. >> what about sharon said about investors getting into the market and dr. j's point about oil prices? what about the other factors? >> i get the oil prices. you don't think i like the gas station? i have a smile on my face. the next won the nba championship but it can't be

dismissed. we are in a six-year low in commodities and the biggest of history of mankind is cut in half in four months and something going on. commodities a six-year low, i'm in the lower rates camp, as well. i think the reasons we believe that they're going lower are different. that's the only difference between me and dr. j at this time. >> michael? >> i'm in the lower for longer camp for quite a while. i think the fed is trapped and can't raise rates and saying that for a while. i'm trying to reconcile this with this whole lang wage and janet yellen saying april for liftoff or lower for longer wlchlt's going on here? something doesn't compute here and sharon pointed out and some other things going on here. year end, you name it. >> what do you think, dr. j? >> i'm looking at the very real possibility in my mind, kelly, buy april, michael, we could be

seeing the euro/dollar 3% lower or more because i think draghi will have made the move by then, the ecb. >> 3% lower? a lot of it is priced in now or -- >> i think a lot of it will play out. who knows? do we see 115 handle which would be more than a 3% move? we could. if we do, again, why would you possibly give your money to spain or italy or france in their bunds or their equivalent thereof when you think that the currencies will make a dramatic move which is what i think. money flows and puts a cap on rates lower for longer. >> sharon? >> isn't there historical data saying after december now we see the markets start to slide back up and happen through the beginning of the year and historically, we have seen the market come off at this time of year. >> are we reading too much into this -- >> exactly. >> observing a santa claus rally. >> seasonality is on the bull

side here. not just a santa claus rally but where we are in the presidential cycle and jeremy granthum known as a bearish, cautious guy talking about how this november to april period is the best part of the presidential cycle and a lot of that going on, as well. >> that's why, guy, i'm wondering, too, we have to turn towards first quarter, second quarter of next year and traditionally and sounds like you're saying the presidential cycle stuff, this is a strong period for stocks? do we pop through 18k? >> people confuse my comments with what i think is going on in the world is extraordinarily destructive but that doesn't mean the markets can't go higher. i get why the market continues to rally and why it will continue to rally. i just think the reasons why we have got on the where we are is very dangerous. it doesn't matter. regardless the market's gone up. so, you know, you have made money either way. the structure behind it, the

foundation of the market scares me. with that said, some of these single stock stories are tremendous. we have talked about facebook since last quarter and everybody scared by the comments of how much money to spend going forward. facebook made an all-time high today. i think that stock moves higher. defense stocks a theme for us for quite sometime. look at defense stocks today. outside of gilead the bio tech sector is on fire, as well. there's things that make sense. but again, the structure, the foundation of the market to me is built in sand. >> understood. so what are -- sticking with this theme for a second, what are names you like here, individual names i mean or sectors if you're more comfortable that way going into 2015? >> yeah, i mean, i don't like a whole lot right here. that's been wrong but by tactical you can be okay with it. very short term, i look at retail. everyone's catching on to the gas price story. afraid of it in october. slowly came around and now i think reaches a fever pitch with

christmas and everything else going on. the thing i'm watching out for there as a blow off top is a conference on january 12th, the icr exchange and can be the height of the euphoria short term. i'm not a buyer of u.s. stocks right here. >> it's funny. we had eric just last hour saying retail is the last place to be this time of year, never performs well and maybe this is different. dr. j? >> planes, trains, automobiles, late, great john hughes with that movie with john candy. fab louse movie. i would replace trains. unit trains are, of course, hauling crude oil. not as much demand and replace trains with use lines. planes, cruise lines and automobiles. those are all going to benefit big-time, kelly, from this. that's going to carry well into 2015. so watch those. >> sharon? >> i want to bet on the consumer. not a specific name or sector

but thinking about living in the northeast like me, heating oil, like me, how much less you pay to heat your home this winter and now with the big drop we saw today in that gas price, more than half of the country heating that way. we see a significant drop in expenditures there. consumers to heat the homes paying a lot less and hopefully good news for them. >> agree. a couple of costs are going up and i wonder if we have evidence of where people are spending the money. you like to think discretionary, health care premiums as they transition in this obamacare premium time and data anymore and whether it's their mobile phone, whether it's their tablet and then, again, just rent that is we have heard about, as well, here. continue to go up. these three areas siphoning off that dollar that might have otherwise gone to a retailer? >> looking at surveys like iff l fidelity and it's to save more as a resolution and not spend

and the savings is coming after they are spending more on those necessary items you were mentioning whether it's a phone or whether it's other expenses they have to take care of for their home. >> it should be asset managers? >> maybe. >> perhaps, guy, what do you like here? last word as we look -- >> people want to save more and lose weight. >> are you buying weight watchers? >> i think you hit the nail on the head, kelly. the money we're saving in gasoline we're paying in health care and rent and paying in other spots. u.s. consumer is resilient as can be. we all know that. we get it. to help -- let's not confuse the spending of the u.s. consumer with the health of the u.s. consumer. i think that's an important distinction. >> i like that. we'll leave it there. >> later! >> guy's coming up with the rest of the "fast money" crew at 5:00 asking dennis gartman of the huge drop of natural gas. coming up here, you won't

find too many people lamenting the oil and gas prices but we have a market watcher warning it could be a bad omen for the global economy and why. also ahead, after president obama said sony made a mistake not releasing "the interview" on the heels of north korea's hack attack, now talk it may be released soon and not in theaters. more details ahead. keep it here. here's a question for you: when electricity is generated with natural gas instead of today's most used source, how much are co2 emissions reduced? up to 30%? 45%? 60%? the answer is... up to 60% less. and that's a big reason why the u.s. is a world leader in reducing co2 emissions. take the energy quiz -- round 2. energy lives here.

well, consumers feeling the weight in the wallet as gas prices post 88 straight days of declines and longest on record. according to my next guest, it's not all it's cracked up to be and it's a symptom of something else larger in the global economy and not pretty. bill smead joins us. explain to us how it does more harm than good long term. >> well, it is very good for the united states domestic economy but for investors in s&p 500 and other places, you've had a 10-year move from 2000, 2010 where everyone organized investments around the globally

synchronized trade. the well-known fact that 400 million middle class citizens want the same thing that people in the united states wanted. they just left out a few important facts, like somebody that makes $8,000 a year that's considered middle class in a developing country isn't going to buy the same things that somebody making $50,000 in the united states. >> so, bill, if you're right and everyone's on the wrong side of a trade or set of assumptions, what happens now? what does look attractive? who are the winners and losers here? why is this such a bad sign as you're kind of putting it for the global economy here? >> well, you know, if we didn't have 86 million people in the united states between 19 and 37, which is 6 million more than the baby boomers my age group, there would be reason to be depressed but you can be very positive. they're going to emerge.

the most exciting emerging market in the world millennials that did everything later in life and get around to doing it and as the baton gets passed from the boomers to the eco-boomers to lead the economy, you will begin to see the multiplier effects we have in an economic recovery. for example, everybody's down in the dumps on the housing number. they're just getting married and having a child and until the baby is screaming, you don't want that standalone house but when they do and the numbers explode two or three years, everybody scrambles trying to find out what companies to own to make money from there. >> bill, it's very interesting report that you've put out about this and also about the eco-boomers and where their investments will be. you say housing. are there specific names or locations? because the housing industry will be more approachable and better for millennials in certain areas. >> we own the fifth largest homebuilder, nvr, ryan homes out

of the mid-atlantic region and 80% is first-time home buyer oriented market. we own a lot of what i call the second tier things. berkshire hathaway is a conglomerate of companies and weighted to mortgage activity for eco-boomers through bank america and wells fargo, carpet, paint, second largest real estate broken and. warren buffett has his sign on communities across the country. so that's the kind of ways that we're going about getting at this. now, i might add that since most large institutions and high net worth individuals are way overweighted in private equity and widely diversified investments, it is going to be the same kind of phase at 2000 and 2010 and large money groups

trying to get at the trade. >> out of which trade? at or out of this trade? all of these institutions with a ton of money to work will mimic what warren buffett is investing in, u.s. economy and the millennials driving it? >> yeah. just think of the frustration as things slow in the emerging world, the consumer staple companies that made a ton of money off the growth in the emerging markets, the earnings are very difficult because the dollar's getting stronger and the brazil and russia and -- they're not going to be the discuss merles that the folks thought they were going to be and in the united states millennials don't need more q-tips or ketchup. they don't need more toilet paper. so or tooth paste. what will happen is earnings are going to be difficult for international streams of revenue which, by the way, also might include technology in that list of company that is are getting a lot of revenue outside the

united states and slows down and what will accelerate is domestic revenue streams and the s&p is not set up well for that. >> hey, bill, you know, again, great points. i see you on the demographics and energy and strong dollar. a number to throw at you. $1.3 trillion, student loans outstanding and i think seen as a bit of a damper on some of the housing recovery here accelerating. do you have any thoughts on that? what can be done s. that a problem? something we're thinking about here. >> thank you for bringing that up. first of all, it's been made -- turned into a contentious subject. average balance is around $24,000 a student. the millennials who are average age about 28 when i was 28 i had a $100,000 mortgage. or larger. and i didn't have student loan debt. what would you rather have right now, single with $24,000 in student loan debt or be married with $100,000 in mortgage debt?

the balance sheet of the average 28-year-old is the best 28-year-olds have ever been because everybody was married by then in 50 years. >> bill, it's interesting, though, because the argument isn't just about the way the balance sheet looks today we evolve over time and ultimately at least if you're carrying a house do you think that's going to generate appreciation and contribute to all the kinds of statistics we hear about, earn more, married, kids, contribute more long-term to the long-term economy. is there a danger that the generation doesn't fall into that or do you think it's just going to come later? >> i love you for asking that question and it's one of the funnest things we do in the work right now. the answer to it is since people wait so much later to get married they don't -- young males don't do anything about the student loan debt until they have somebody else to worry about besides themselves and the jeff that lives at home

phenomenon so the reality is most of that debt is attached to people that went to prestigious colleges, became doctors, became lawyers, became highly educated professionals or graduate students at the best colleges. the average 35-year-old that went to college and got a four-year degree makes $25,000 a year! in their lifetime than a non-college educated person. you think an average of $24,000 in debt is a good idea to make $25,000 more a year between 35 and 65? i think so. that has all been blown out of proportion. you get the young men in the late 20s, a wife, a screaming baby, the honey-do list kicks in and like warren buffett says, hormones and don't like the in-laws that much takes over. >> we have to let you go. i love this. circling back saying that you were striking a cautious note about the global economy. is there anything to be cautioned about, warned about here?

>> yeah. the chinese stock market is doing a lot better. primarily because the things that the chinese used to invest in like gold and six or seven additional apartments are doing lousy. but people should not construe that to think that's connected to their economy doing better. the price of oil is telling you where things are doing in china. >> all right. bill, thank you. refreshing perspective this afternoon. have a wonderful holiday. as we march along here. president obama called sony's pulling of "the interview" a mistake. shortly after the president made that comment, democratic congressman brad sherman on this program said sony should show the film to congress. >> i think that sony should make it available to congress and i think we would want to screen it right there in the rayburn building across the street from the capitol. >> with washington beating the drums for sony to stand up to north korean hack attack, sword

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you don't need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. because we do. we're exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. because boiling an egg... isn't as simple as just boiling an egg. life takes energy. energy lives here. welcome back. we kick off with dominic chu. >> we're watching shares of chesapeake oil, natural gas

prices weakened throughout the course of the session. the stock moving higher in the after hours on news of a $1 billion share repurchase program that chesapeake's putting in place. those shares lost 7% in the regular trade and up by 2.5% in the after market now. >> all right. thank you. ever since sony pictures computer systems hacked on november 24th over the release of "the interview," the talk of the country and the world and the e-mails replaced by what they should do now that the cia stated it was the worth of north korea. tracking the chatter inside and outside the beltway. >> reporter: there does appear to be an outage or disruption at this hour of north korean internet access. they don't have a lot on the internet as you would imagine in north korea but they have ip addresses and showing signs of disruption. i asked national security council whether the united

states was behind that and what i was told by an official is they don't have any new announcements to make about north korea today. so the white house not confirming or denying they have anything to do with what's going on in north korean internet infrastructure right now. over at the state department today, a suggestion of north korea to do to redeem itself here, a state department spokesperson saying north korea might owe sony some money. take a listen. >> we are confident the north korean government is responsible for this destructive attack. we stand by this conclusion. the government of north korea has a long history of denying responsibility for destructive and provocative actions. they could compensate sony for the damages that they caused. >> reporter: she didn't say how much north korea ought to pesony for the damages and she didn't say how sony gets against sanctions.

only suggesting that some sort of a work-around might be able to be put in place there. an interesting suggestion there from the state department now, kelly. probably not one we're going to see the north koreans take up too soon. >> all right. thank you for now. if sony shifts to streaming "the interview" online? does it put companies at risk? we'll ask an expert in a moment. will you be watching it if it is streamed online? you can go to cnbc.com/vote and let us know and bring in mike potts here. mike, it's great to have you here. what risk are these companies at should any of them take on the potential vulnerability of being hammed by the north koreans here if they were to stream this movie? >> good afternoon, kelly. the question isn't of a nation-based attack or a

cyber-attack but inevitable. every company is under sewaiege. we will be attacked but good thing is there's a way to get ahead of these attackers and that is doing what a lot of customers do and that's getting visibility turning it into an online sensor to detect behavior patterns aenl in the case of sony, allegedly with these attackers coming in back in february, companies are using products like ours would have been able to detect the unusual state of this activity. and now that is really in demand that we guard our network from the inside out much like what we have done over the past decade from the outside in using printer based defense systems. >> dr. j, a question if i may put you on the spot. how do you feel about -- let's share you're a shareholder of

google, would you support them streaming this movie? >> sure, i would, i would. i know that each company's going to have to decide for itself, netflix, google, amazon. itunes for that matter. whether or not they'd be willing to take the risk of the hack that would inevitably be attempted. but yeah. i would support it. although from all of the reviews that we were seeing ahead of the movie i don't think it's going to have the big pull that the studio wished in the first place for this movie. >> would you, by the way, support michael block, the companies? >> yeah. this is a fact of life. the way things go. face it. i'm sure that our guest could speak to this, as well. everyone does this. we're reading about iran with the -- who was responsible for that? if it wasn't for us, someone we're friends for. whoops. did i say that out loud? >> it's a clear invitation.

if it didn't happen, it is a surprise taking on the north koreans as a company. >> where does that end? you mentioned google. do they alter the search results and because what shows up in priority offends somebody? >> they do that in chi in. >> stopped going to china. >> they pulled out. this is something that the guest can speak of. streaming video, are some of those companies much better prepared than sony was from the out set? 90% of the viewers say they'd watch it. why wouldn't you say yes i'm going to do that? >> mike? >> well, i would hope that the companies that are entertaining, distributing the product much better prepared than sony was. i mean, the end of the day without having the disclosure of everything that transpired, there were 100 te ra bytes of data distrinted. put it in perspective. the library of congress with every paper edition published into a medium would be 10

terabytes. it is a massive amount of data somebody at sony if they had visibility what was happening on the network would have seen that. so my belief is that some of the other companies have better operational procedures in place to protect themselves. we all know it is a matter of time. no longer a question of if. and it's much like a cold. better prepared you are to fight a cold, the better off you will be to actually fight it off when you catch it and then in this case returning a network to a normal state. >> mike, are you going to watch this movie if it's streamed online? >> there's enough curiosity i probably have to. >> we have to go. by the way, could your firm given that you're in the security arena show it? >> we're not set up to stream media like that. in the entertainment business. but thanks for asking me. >> maybe partner with somebody who can. understood. mike potts, thank you. we'll close our poll now.

clearly, 92%, 93% of people saying they will watch this movie if it is streamed online. good movie, generally critically speaking, or not. markets are another all-time high. new records have users flocking to cnbc.com. and the other market stories that have been generating heat today. hi. pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us

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new market highs. new oil and gas lows. two stories dominating the hot list. allen joins us with what users are diving into. good to see you. online. >> the market coverage today as usual with a big move like today, people diving into the market coverage. one story really catching attention right now is the -- our look at what's happening on natural gas prices. kind of bottomed out there. $3.12 per btu and not long ago up around $6 per btu. traders say they see panic selling with the spade of warm weather nobody was expecting and betting on gas prices going up. that's a point. we have a wrap-up of a survey of wall street analysts and what they see going on for next year. 15 of them surveyed and they

actually had a median gain for the dow of about 7%. not too bad. we're up about 12% this year. and then finally, another story that's been pulling all day long, the saudi oil minister coming out and saying we don't care if oil is 20 bucks a barrel, we will produce the same level. people love that and we think they're reading that story and diving into the market coverage of the markets going up so there you go. all that stuff. >> mapping it out for us. thank you very much. we're counting down to 2015. just nine days away. up next, dominic chu's sports predictions for the new year and how you can cash in and whether it's the nhl, mlb or nba, chances are the jersey is made by 47 brand. coming up, the chief executive of the sports apparel retailer and how the holiday shopping season is going and what he is predicting for the new year. (vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose.

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all right. this week looking ahead to the new year, giving investors a playbook how to cash in for 2015. we'll begin with dominic chu and how he fared. bold last year saying the monster mlb deals with ar thing of the past. strike one. okay. he also predicted the nfl would embrace next gen media

technologies. well, right there with the league producing nfl now this year, he gets a check mark. finally, dom said 2014 would be a tipping point for major league soccer. he is half right. television rates up. so that's 1 1/2, i guess. 50%. we'll take it. what's dom predicting for 2015? here's a look. >> from a-rod to donald sterling to ray rice, scandals plagued the sports world in 2014. here are three bold predictions for 2015. the nfl crosses the pond. after sellout crowds for three games at wimbley stadium in 2014,the national football league will announce an international franchise in london. we're not talking about nfl europe part 2. with more than 8 million casual nfl fans in the uk, there is demand and passion. student athletes cash in.

as ncaa revenues grow, so will the bank accounts of student athletes. the ncaa will continue to loosen rules to allow the opportunity to get paid. and not just scholarships but also a cut of the money they help bring into each school. this could be a game changer. two words -- triple crown. the year, 1978. the horse, affirm. the last one to win the most coveted distinction in horse racing. 12 horses since then have had a shot and all fell short at the belmont stakes and its torturous mile and a half track. in 2015, the triple crown drought ends. >> oh. >> hmm. >> what? dominic chu joins us now. a predictions or wish list? >> they said to be bold. i'm as bold as possible. we know that the nfl has not even put on the table an l.a. franchise for right now so the

uk might be a bit of a stretch. you know, it is an intriguing thought. >> listen. i went to those games in london. it was a pretty big draw. >> they're selling out and that's a big revenue so i think some point you will see it's not the world league of american football and could be big. ncaa athletes thing is interestinging if they get paid or talk about whether or not there's some kind of a revenue sharing agreement. triple crown thing is interesting because it's been a while and we have thought it would happen. maybe this time it happens. i can just tell you that the most robust discussion on the news desk of 2015 predictions is where jim harbaugh will coach next year. will it be at michigan? will it be somewhere else in the nfl? there's guys up here with a lot of thoughts. one of the guys including mark fisherman says almost a shoe-in to go to michigan. >> what say you, dr. j? >> michigan or the oakland raiders. >> those are the two front-runners. i think people say across the

bay. >> can you imagine? >> i don't know. niners fan. i can't imagine it. >> michael, we were talking here about the premier league going back to dom's prediction of major league soccer making more gains. it has a little bit but so, too, has soccer, football, if you will, across the pond. here people watching. look at today even. >> quite a phenomenal. we were talking about the chelsea-stoke match. i'm an arsenal fan myself. any thoughts of epl and the mls getting further penetration this year? are there any new thoughts here? mls half right on the way. when's next for soccer? >> that whole epl, english premier league soccer thesis is why i thought it would take off big and the world cup and you can see it on nbc sports network, of course. a lot of people have an affinity towards english soccer and you wonder whether it's the beginning and start transmitting

and broadcasting all kinds of european matches and that really starts to get people involved. soccer is a sport that's starting to get more traction with kids across the country so it may be a few years off but soccer is a demographic trend to be here to stay. >> i like that you stuck your neck out there. thank you. we have a major play in the sports apparel business with us and the only brand exclusive rights across all leagues, that includes major league baseball, national football league and national basketball association and national hockey league. 47 brand ceo steven deanglo joins me exclusively. are you seeing a pick-up on oil price declines? talk to us about the trends. how's the business? >> hey, kelly. how are you? our business is really strong. the license business continues to grow and be a strong growth area at retail. >> well, sharon epperson here

might have questions of your pricing power in 2015. >> with a 12-year-old basketball player that wants every jersey out there it seems like, i want the know how does the nba get paid based on the licensing or when's the arrangement and why are t-shirts with little logos so much less than the custom jersey special varsity whatever he's asking for. >> well, the introductions a little off. we don't have exclusive rights. we are the only company that has headwear and apparel in the professional sports leagues and colleges. so we're not in the jersey business but usually the way -- >> how about the hat instead. >> that's probably a good answer. but it's typically based on a royalty rate and that's how the leagues get paid. when you sell it to a retailer, each league has a different sort of set-up and based on a price point, you pay them on your wholesale price to a retailer.

that's the royalty rate to the league so jerseys tend to be more expensive than t-shirts and it's at a higher price. >> depends also on the size of the logo, does it not? years ago in the sports retailing business and we actually had like 17 different locations where we sold pa paraphrenalia and the larger the lo logo, the more you bad to pay. is that still the case? >> what that tends to be is based on embroidery costs or applique cost and typically the more embroidery stitches or larger applique, the more expensive it is to manufacture. and it raises the price of the wholesale which raises the price of the retail. >> okay. on a last-minute -- >> in terms of royal rate. i'm sorry. >> no. i was going to say as a last-minute shopper, what is your best sell rear right now? what should people be getting?

>> we specialize in t-shirts and headwear and we have beautiful, beautiful quality t-shirts and the best headwear in the business so it's still not too late so come to 47 brand.com and pick up some unbelievable beautiful stuff. >> any stuff from the english premier league, steven? >> it's funny. we're -- we are in the process of doing a deal domestically with the premiership but that's not going to be until fall of 2015. listening in, we an i gree completely with the demographic changing and the soccer world sort of changing and it's going to become big here in the united states. >> we'll watch for it. always next holiday season. steven, thank you so much for being here this afternoon. ceo over at 47 brand. stocks are closing at record highs in the u.s. today. to find the next opportunity, you veal to look overseas and may be surprised where that is when we come back. oman] can it t

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welcome back with cnbc turning 25 this year we've been taking a deep dive into what the next 25 years in business will look like. we're joined with what the greatest opportunity in the world will be.

in 25 years, what do you see? >> we're headed to africa. that's where the numbers of consumers will multiply over the next 25 years. first, you got to look at population growth. look at the start gap, the growth in africa and every other continent. but this doesn't tell the entire story. with the help of rising investment from china and the west over in africa, we should see the development of resources and infrastructure along with better regulation and the impact of urbanization, africa's population is seeing more and more economic growth and disposable income. how are western companies taking advantage of the new opportunities? coca-cola, for example, has been in there for years. it just recently partnered with its bottling in bt global services to provide underserved south african communities with free wifi which will be built into coke vending machines. in april, another example, marriott hotels increased its footprint by buying a local chain acquiring 116 hotels

across seven counties in the continent doubling its rooms in africa. major beer companies caught on years ago. they've been figuring out ways to introduce beers that a appeal to local tastes and incomes. they replaced the barley malt in brewing with locally grown casaba. they rely on these local crops to support the communities and make higher quality but lower priced beer. it will not be enough that prakter and gamble gets 1% of its total sales from africa or cole gate at 2% or coca-cola at 4%. they'll have to figure out ways to establish a bigger presence and navigate the challenges and how to meet the needs of this booming population. >> yeah, exciting times, though, sara, they certainly are. and another record day on wall

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s&p 500 has closed at a record high. the dow jones industrial average today also going out on a record high at that last minute gain of 154 points. the prior record was 17958. today we did 17959. turning to the panel here, guys, is it justified, dr. j? >> it is justified. like i say, companies are financing debts, lowest prices in history, refinancing debt, issuing debt, that's going forward. it's not just consumers, planes, cruise lines and automobiles and retailers and a whole host of others. i don't think it's overdone but amazing that we're just doing it by inches each time. we're not leaping over there, even though it's 154 point gain we beat the old record by a point. >> funny to see how this stacks up compared to past years when the market was trading higher. in 2007 for the s&p with a hat tip to our data team we only had nine record closes. in the year 2000 we had four.

you have to go all the way back to 1995 when we had 77 record closes. i'm not sure what that means, what that tells us. >> if you look at other trends in the santa claus rally we were talking about, the last trading days of the year, the s&p 500 being higher, we've seen that happen in the last six years and 17 in the last 20 years. so while we've had these bull markets, it's not unusual for this to happen, whether or not it's 150 points or 1 point ahead of the last record, that may be how we do it, but unlikely to see the same trend again. >> this has been hard to fight, but i'm going to fight it. bill sneed was on the show earlier. he made an interesting turn of phrase where he said investors have organized themselves. that's a really key word. some of the reading work i've been doing in the finance world has kind of related back to the science of earthquakes and seismology and talks about how investors self-organize. where everyone goes the same way and everything moves around. we're seeing a lot of that here,

where energy moves get exacerbated, we saw what happened to the biotech names today. energy weekness is good for consumer stocks. we talked about that quite a bit today. but all this volatility leads to little cracks in the earth. and when everything's kind of working against each other, everything's fine. but everything goes the same way. >> interesting that you brought this up as well because we've had more coverage lately about the etf world and to what extent the creation of the etf products themselves contributing to this behavior, some of the risks in the market. are there risks with regard to being in etfs and trading in these products that investors need to know about? >> i've been talking about this for a while. liquidity was not what it was when these things were invented in 2007 or even 2009 and '10. there's a chance for these all to go at once. markets do well when there's disorder. guys saying one thing and everyone's opposing them and buyers and sellers. where we run into a problem,

ironically is when the chaos ends and there's order, everyone goes the same way. i don't know if we want to see that. i fear there's a chance we can see that in all the recent behavior and volatility tells me we're more likely to see that than six months ago. >> that's why you see people more cautious lately, but you're saying don't worry? >> i'm always worried about what we don't know. that's why when we're seeing the blowup in energy and so forth, what i was worried about was who has an s&p put linked to a crude oil delivery that, you know, they're on the wrong side of both bets. and then all of a sudden they have to unwind that all at once. that's what i worry about. those kind of things that we don't know are out there because they're off the balance sheet. >> there's a lot that you don't know. be prepared for even if we have another santa claus rally be prepared for more volatility in 2015. that doesn't mean get out, just be prepared so you can handle it. >> good to see you. "fast money" coming up in a few

moments with melissa lee. what's on tap? >> big move in gil add today, down 15%. big moves in biotech off of the scripps news. one would say this is your buying opportunity because the stock is cheap. get the reason behind this call. >> got to hear this one. over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketplace in new york city's times square. tim seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman, gil add having their worst day in 14 years. we've got somebody who says this is not the time to ditch the stock. but the technology sector sending the s&p to its 50th five-zero record close of the year. the tech sector hitting highest levels since 2000 with names like intel, cisco, apple, qualcomm leading the charge. every five trading days. every week. >> it's getting a little