tv Fast Money CNBC December 22, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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"fast money" coming up in a few moments with melissa lee. what's on tap? >> big move in gil add today, down 15%. big moves in biotech off of the scripps news. one would say this is your buying opportunity because the stock is cheap. get the reason behind this call. >> got to hear this one. over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now live from the nasdaq marketplace in new york city's times square. tim seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman, gil add having their worst day in 14 years. we've got somebody who says this is not the time to ditch the stock. but the technology sector sending the s&p to its 50th five-zero record close of the year. the tech sector hitting highest levels since 2000 with names like intel, cisco, apple, qualcomm leading the charge. every five trading days. every week. >> it's getting a little boring,
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frankly. i'd like to see something else going on. so listen, it is 50 straight -- not 50 straight but 50 out of 52 weeks we've had new highs, which is a little crazy. where else do you put your investment dollars? japan's telling you we don't want your money, switzerland is charging you negative interest rates. it's all coming to the u.s. as long as that continues, everything's going to be fine. the two thing i thought were interesting today -- i watch the u.s. dollar japanese yen because that's where a lot of money is coming from. you see that reverse i'd be concerned. but again, that's money coming in. i think the biggest risk for 2015 is that you see the bond market version get higher rates and the stock market goes down. >> we have a seasonal lift going here to tend of the year. >> we should. >> we should. in terms of technology leading the way today, september 11th had a call saying overweight technology. the run, they say, is not long in the tooth when you take a look at valuations. is that the place to be?
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>> i bet last week we were also talking about how there's a lot of headwinds and we did a segment on the fx headwinds and how companies get their earnings abroad. brian talks about how people want to be here, big cap tech to me still looks very interesting to me from a valuation perspective, but i tend to disagree and say that a lot of money now wants to go globally. you will see europe outperform. s&p dovishness and that price helps them. you look where we are now, it's a good time. >> i was surprised to see we had oil and the market head in separate directions now which we haven't seen for a while. oil didn't have a great day. down $1.80. that's not great considering where it started from. so i don't know if that's a good sign or not if there's maybe a little bit of decoupling, i'm not sure what to make of it. but in terms of it being a new higher record, we're getting to the end of the year, a lot of things could happen as managers
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try to chase performance a t the very end. >> blackberry. we talked about it on friday, the price action was really interesting, today through 7%. i'm still in the camp that blackberry has legs here. we have that crazy analyst sitting next to me, overcaffeinated nut job with a 12 1/2 dollar price tag, i think he's going to be right. >> analysts today coming out to say we still stand by our bullish call. >> not only that but talking about ways to break it up. there's some value in this company. i wish they'd get rid of the hand sets and just go with their enterprise. that to me is where the value is in this, but people are starting to recognize it. i agree with the crazy over caffeinated analyst. >> stocks, intel was up, 60 cents off of its 52-week high. is that the place you want to be at the end of the year? >> i think it's a defensive place to be. people are very comfortable in intel because it's a company on
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the fly and over the course of the last decade has kind of remade itself, gotten more into the mobile space. pcs are not rebounding decidedly but these guys are outperforming all their competitors. pays you a dividend yield. its valuation is decent. i still like qualcomm. >> qualcomm failed to make the lower low last week. we talked about that $70 being a pivot point. it's had a nice run. i think timmy's right about qualcomm. >> tim hit on the dividend on intel, that's another reason why people are in these big cap techs. >> like ibm, microsoft. >> even a lowly microsoft. not a bad place to be. >> staying with technology, let's hit our caller of the day. it's on twitter. bob peck our friend making interesting comments about when the ceo may step down. take a listen. >> does costello, kick costello,
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the ceo, make it out of 2015? >> the number one question i get when i walk in to talk to institutional investors. should he step down this year? ross levinson who was the former ceo of yahoo! neil mohah, highly thought of at google who. and bo mead. >> do you think kick costolo will leave that job? >> we think there's a chance he may not be there midyear. >> sending stocks soaring. a buy rating on twitter stock. has been on the show essentially saying this is a good company to buy. this was not a pound the table sort of call yet the stock jumped, that's really telling. >> that's where it goes to. you've said they need to do one thing right. there is value. this company has something altogether here. and if you can just do one thing -- and whether it's kick costolo, i'm not convinced that's it. but the market will care about
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that. that's coming in 2015. i still like twitter here. >> the presumption is it's a broken company then. >> i don't think it's a broken company at all. >> why would kick costolo inspire confidence? >> that's what i'm saying is that i don't think it's necessarily kick costolo leaving. i think there's a lot there. the market cares about that. crazy and the ceo leaves, oh, something's going to change, we got to buy the stock. buy it the day before something changes. >> there's something up with five direct reports leaving in a short amount of time with user growth slowing and the switch to log off users. i mean, this is a change in the message that institutional investors may not like because that's not what they signed up for. >> i agree with that, i agree the growth is not there, the scale is not there. these guys are losing ground rapidly to facebook and even google. they need to prove something here. >> it's a big company, but not that big at 24 billion for some of these other guys, you know. >> huh. >> i don't know. potentially. it wouldn't be the most shocking thing in the world.
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>> in this world it wouldn't be shocking t all. what hurt twitter was the instagram news that instagram has 300 million active users and facebook to me -- we play this game all the time. >> and it's never twitter. it's never -- i can say whatever it is and it's not twitter. >> it's facebook. i think so. i think that facebook's still -- you know, i think that's a fair question at these levels, but i would still at this point be in the facebook camp over twitter. >> the market's may be heading higher but crude oil is back in the red dropping another 3%. the biggest pain though today was in the natural gas market. prices plunging a whopping 8% on the back of unseasonably warm weather. let's bring in dennis gartman, the editor behind the gartman letter. go thanks for being with us. >> good to be had. >> we could have a cold snap and that gas will snap back. what's your view on this commodity? >> there's a number of things going on.
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obviously weather first and primarily. secondly we have a large number of supplies still extant in the country. look at the term structure. we talk about it in crude oil all the time. but now to talk about the term structure in natural gas. you took fed march to a fantango. you've got natural gas liquids in oversupply, you've got ethanol in oversupply. you had a lot of people short of crude oil long of natural gas on a spread, on friday they started to unwind that. you start to break through support levels, stop orders got hit. it became very, very ugly. it likely could remain ugly as long as the temperatures. here we are in southeast virginia, late december, 57 degrees, it will be 55 degrees in new york later this week. the demand for natty is simply disappearing. you can put a two handle on this before it's done. >> so that was my question. are there other things going on that could make a two handle
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more likely whether it's something to do with margin or anything technical not having to do with this supply/demand of the modty itself? >> i think it's the supply/demand of the commodity itself. sometimes you go back to that supply and the demand of the circumstances and in nat gas is either the production of it or the use of it and what is the biggest use of it. look at that chart, an abundantly awful looking chart that broke out last week after we took out 360. there was nothing underneath it to supply it. the term structure is telling you there's an abundance of supply available to us everywhere in the united states right now. >> sure. before we let you go, what's your take on what seems to be the early stages of a decoupling between equity and oil prices? >> they should have decoupled long ago, mel. let's be blunt. simply put, in you're in manufacturing in the united states, if you're a retail operator in the united states
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and you're given your choice between do you want your clients to have hundred dollar crude oil or 35 dollar crude oil, you want 35 dollar crude oil. this should have decoupled -- >> does this mean you're a buyer of equities. if you are a believer they should have decoupled a long time ago, then you'd be bullish stock, i would imagine. >> the trend is still up, the stock market still going from the lower left to the upper right. you can't fade that. anybody who has has paid a dear price for it. this could go on for a while. so this is not a bad thing for the economy at all. this is a very good thing. i don't think the weakness in oil tells us that there's weakness in the global economy. weakness in oil tells us there's an abundance of supply and that this is going to be a very good economic circumstance going into the new year, no question. >> dennis, thanks for your time. >> always glad to be here. >> dennis gartman of the gartman letter. now we said good-bye to dennis, who wants to take him on? >> i would disagree about the --
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i think it sort of does portend that maybe the global economy isn't strong because the bond markets back that statement up. global rates continue to go lower. we can start to -- >> the short end of the curve. the rates are starting to move higher. >> but they're very stubborn in the back end. >> that's the inflation gauge where there is no inflation. >> exactly, what is there out there with commodities going lower, back end of the curves continuing to go down. i say deflation and global economy is not strong. >> i think there's both and we can argue about it till we're blue in the face. gas and gas stocks are going lower. to me the way i play this xop, i still think we can short that against 62. that looks like it will be resistance at this point in time. i don't think there's enough to stop natural gas. they're burning it for free, they're giving it away. no floor to natural gas. >> some of the european gas names like total. >> i don't know that that's that big a deal, i don't know if it
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will skt their funding. but look at the deal, huge balance sheet questions coming up for the entire sector, not necessarily there, but they bought these assets at $5 billion right at the peak of prices. >> a potential pricing war for gil add. shares sinking after a competitor's hepatitis c drug came in cheaper than gil add's. we have an analyst that says that's going down per price of share.
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make the best entertainment part of your holidays. catch all the hottest handpicked titles on the winter watchlist, only with xfinity from comcast. gillead plunging on news tht express scripts the making the hepatitis c drug the most exclusive option for patients with hepatitis c. he's got a buy rating on the stock. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> what does it mean the stock goes down a lot, what does it mean in terms of market share. some analysts saying between 15 and 20%? >> so i think it's really ambiguous what market share is. for the primary formulary that express scripts dictates 25 million patients who are covered
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in the united states. so that's only a small fraction. you know, one of the things to note here is this is restricted to type one patients. that's not an immaterial impact to gilead down the road for sure, but i think we really have to wait and see how the market shift winds up occurring. i believe most people like myself have expectations that abbvie is requesting to have 20, 30% of the market share anyway. if it settles out that express scripts gives abbvie that market share other pvms, other payers retail gilead as their primary option, everyone winds up being happy. >> but when you were thinking that abbvie would wind up having 20% market share anyway, were you modelling it with an agreement or no? was express scripts even a glimmer in your eye at that point? >> oh, sure. express scripts has been vocal for a year now that they were going to be very aggressive
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particularly going after gilead and their price for sovaldi and now harvoni. they've forecasted that way, way in advance. i think the confusion is more around how quickly it happened. we saw the approval of abbvie's viekira just on friday. the initial pricing was really favorable. almost appeared that abbvie wasn't being aggressive at all. so people were taken aback to see press release that was really a positive for gilead on friday then wake up to the news this morning that express scripts and abbvie have done something rather aggressive i would argue quicker than we were estimating, but at the end of the day i don't think it's a shock. >> this agreement takes place next year. when will be the next sort of data point that could cause investors to hit the sell button once again? are we going to see it in weekly total help c drug sales for each of the manufacturers? what are some of the data points that you'll be watching? >> right. so ims tracks prescription data.
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we get weekly, that's a pretty good metric of how the quart ea er's going to look out. if you see massive shifts from harvoni that would be a cause for concern. i'm talking about shifting more than 20% to viekira. certainly if we see any other pbms follow suit, gilead has woken up from the express scripts abbvie deal and i'm sure gilead will try to maintain relationships with the other pdms. >> what does that mean maintain relationships, talk about cvs, gigantic, they've got to negotiate with them. what do you think that deal would look like? >> sog i always sort of thought what we would trend towards from the retail price is a gross to net margin adjustment pushing 20% over the next year or two. that's still in line. that's what gilead could do with
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cvs and get the preferred -- be the preferred agent on their formulary. i think what will concern gilead investors and really sector investors as a whole is if you start seeing gross to net adjustments that go way in excess of that. it's sort of changing the dynamic of how drug companies and pvms and payers have operated in the past. now, pvms have definitely been more aggressive. we've seen that in respiratory and diabetes. the question is are we looking at, you know, a 15, 20% correction in terms of pricing or is it going to be something much greater. that's what's driving the fear in gilead and any fear systemically. >> $126 price target. brian, thanks for dropping by. the bulls would argue the stock's cheap. and the company could be buying back shares. >> it was cheap 15% ago. >> yeah. >> and so you know, what brian didn't mention real quick was
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this abbvie drug, this is five pills a day, gilead is one pill a day. you get into compliance in what a doctor's going to prescribe, that's a big issue. the move is overdone. traded close to 70 million shares today. they'll probably whack this a little tomorrow. you're trading at levels that we broke out at in the spring. i like gilead. >> at 91 you're back to july levels. we have a pricing war here. it's hard to know where this is going to go. i don't know why you have to touch this stock even though it's exciting to see the valuation. bank of america just took it down. and they're comfortable on it with an underperform there. there you go. >> it's very seldom that the very first day of a pricing war is the day you have to buy it. >> that's true. that's a good point. >> just trading wise, i'd like 85 to 90 is roughly what these guys talk about. look at that reversal debt, look for the day bad news comes out and all of a sudden it closes at the high of the day. that's when you get in. >> oracle buying up the company
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that facebook uses to track your offline purchases. we've got the details after the break. later the indian e-commerce play that just secured an investment and may give amazon and alibaba a serious run for their money. from record breaking highs to major market meltdowns, every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades, serving up in-depth analysis and actionable advice. >> this is what i would buy with both hands. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> take your profits here. a lot of people did. i don't think you need to run back in tomorrow. >> this is "fast money." >> when you see those names moving, they're moving for the right reasons. >> have a question tweet u us @cnbc fast money. take on the challenge of trading options and futures...
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the money. both facebook and twitter realize that before they went public that they needed to have a sustainable value proposition. we're having a lot of fun right now, we're focusing on growing the business right now. >> that's our takeout target. of course i did. >> oracle is to me is one of the best firms out there. yeah, they've had bad moves over the course. but i'd say 95% of their deals tuck in really nicely. this one will as well. the stock didn't trade great today. that's okay. the last quarter is tremendous. it's cheap valuation wise. i like oracle before the deal and i like it more now. >> we don't know the terms of the deal. it's probably a drop in the bucket but breaking the streak of misses on earnings, that was huge for the stock. >> yeah. and i think guy's right. oracle can be thought of at this point as a conglomeration of all these m & a. whether they split them up or not, i like oracle at this
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level, it adds one more arrow in their quiver. >> next up u.s. steel getting taken to the woodshed as we like to say as energy demand continues to fall. we should note the moves in the entire sector today, steel dynamics, ak steel, arcelormittal all falling hard today. tim. >> this is coming out of u.s./russia wto concerns and whether they'll strike a deal in place. u.s. steel stock moves from 48 down to 26 and change. a lot of this is energy dependent. so these guys have been seeing the greatest growth coming out of energy demand, the tubular brands, and this gave people confidence. i don't think you trade it off here. it's had a huge rundown and i would probably hold ground. >> ak steel which is other day put up actually what were not bad earnings. do you think that outweighs the other issues going on? >> i think people are looking at these guys got a huge boost from energy buildout and also auto. auto's going to be flat and the energy's a big drag. but i think it's priced in.
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you had four guys downgrade the stock last week. that's pretty good support there. i would not be selling it hard here, to be honest. >> i thought it would hold 30 last week, trading 30, 30 1/2. they reported at the end of the month of january. that's really interesting. but now it feels like this is one of those names. timmy mentioned 48. it's overshooting to the down side. i just can't tell you what that's going to be. volume says there's probably still a couple days left because i don't think you've seen that flush. it gets pretty compelling at these prices here. >> touch or no touch? >> i call it vanilla pudding. >> meaning what? that depends if you really like vanilla pudding or not. i think it's okay. >> that's the point. you think it's okay. he doesn't think it's okay. it's eh. that's a long way to say no touch. >> i said touch or -- could indy now be the hottest market in the world. another shopping site securing a
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valuation in the country. should amazon be next? gas hitting a five-year low today. what does that mean for shoppers. find out as we sit down with the owner of one of the largest retailers in the u.s. dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future.you. thank you for being my hero and my dad. military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa auto insurance could be one of them.
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amazon's biggest threat in one of the world's fastest growing economies. we'll tell you what it is and how to play it. will falling gas prices help the retail trade in the chief operating officer of a company that owns malls across the country gives us the view from the front lines. goproshares and where traders think the company could end up this week in a special options action. but amazon's push into india may have hit a stumbling block. flipkart announcing an investment on top of a billion raised back in july. should amazon be worried about its indian competition? it's bring in ron shaw. what do you make of this valuation? >> i think it's a very large valuation reflecting an enormous growth potential of india. i think there's tons of growth. it looks expensive on paper, and
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it really is expensive from all surface reasons, but india has so much growth potential. it's got a billion people. 65% of which are under the age of 35. >> you mentioned potential like five times. what i'm saying is that this is all predicated on this notion of trajectory in india. so what is the state of e-commerce right now? how many users does flipkart have? how much is $11 billion? what is it buying? >> 6 million monthly users, 26 million registered users and you have a revenue run rate of $4 billion. so with that few number of users and that much revenue run rate you'll see a lot of reoccurring revenue, you are seeing good sticky metrics, you're seeing a consumer that's alive and active, not just people randomly buying something, they're coming back, showing behavioral trends towards e-commerce. >> what happens next with flipkart in your view? >> so what happens next?
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i think in your view, you have to look at not the consumer acquisition but what are they doing in infrastructure. amazon just announced they'll dee drone deliveries. they're thinking ahead. infrastructure, logistics and payments and the person that does that the best will win the game. >> could they benefit from flipkart if they do the trial and error in the country, amazon could learn from it and save money by being not maybe first but the second. >> exactly. flipkart has hedge fund money breathing down its mind. amazon could take its time and learn from their mistakes. >> is this more interesting than alibaba? because people would argue that india is more open to business than chind is. you might have a more consuming public public, much less regulatory chaos. could we see these guys start to come back this way and the next
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huge ipo we'll watch on this network? >> tech valuations are based on growth potential. you see in indian smartphone growth at near 200% a year where china is like 10%. there's a ton more growth potential in india where you can get great valuations. will it beat alibaba? it's really size, it's not the size level yet. will it get there? a lot of potential but yet to be seen. >> here's a disconnect i don't get. amazon is 15 years into their history of extraordinary growth, yet their margins are very slim. 1, 1 1/2, whatever you want to call them. all this money going into this new -- what are they expecting from margins down the road? >> amazon is a loss leader in a lot of new markets they enter. i think they're not expecting huge margins on india. they're expecting to get all those young eyeballs and consumer and brand lovers that are coming up in india today, they're trying to get them early and get them hooked on amazon
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and monetize them later, that's their thought process. >> but i guess the question is are you thinking when amazon enters india or another legacy internet player goes into india will the numbers be lower than in the largest domestic market, the u.s., because one would think you have to sacrifice margin by going to another country? it's going to be nothing or negative there. >> there are going to be some categories where they're going to be category leaders and have monopoly-like margins and they'll try to get in and take market share and get losses. >> thanks for your time. how do we trade this, if at all? >> you got to look just at india more broadly. everything i've been reading india is quickly becoming the macro trade of 2015. everybody wants in. for some of the reasons that tim and rob talked about. you have an economy of 1.2 million people that's more open to business than china, falling oil prices certainly help india out.
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epi, that's the etf, i would watch that one. that's one that you hold for 2015. >> amazon is one of these stocks today that did pretty well, 2.25%. >> it traded up to that level. i think at these levels here you're in total no man's land. amazon here, you're flipping a coin. that's not good enough. >> emerging market play, baba 55 times. if you're looking to ar way the get exposed google, internet search is still the best way to monetize search and retail in emerging markets and therefore take a look at google. >> time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. blackberry. >> everybody getting on board this including the caffeinated colin gillis. i'm still in it, still long calls. next thing it needs to get through is $11. that's a key level. >> big pop for caesars entertainment, up 11%. >> is all about the balance sheet. people have been worried about these guys, sounds like 2009.
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but they've merged their two companies, this gives the balance sheet about $1.7 billion in cash, this is what took investors so% higher. >> pop, at taser. >> the news hasn't been good but it's worked for taser. it got an outperform rating at oppenheimer. to levels we last saw 2005. >> this was down 3% and nothing compared to what they did to us on friday. i have a long-term shareholder very frustrated by it on friday, frustrated with the management, the execution, i don't understand what they're saying talk about lack o innovation, to me this one was a great balance sheet and cheap valuation is very ripe for activism. >> go after that. >> i wouldn't be surprised to see that in 2015. very disappointing. >> first prediction maybe of 2015. >> we'll drop here for spell-check. multiple spelling mistakes on a new jersey public school sign
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have apparently cost a principal her job. the message board sits outside ps-20 in patterson was supposed to provide students the schedule but it spelled december with an i and the other includes report spelled with two es and no t and a the sign was up for a full week before anyone noticed. the principal was reassigned as assistant principal. >> reassigned? >> the principal should be out of there, i'm sorry. >> you know, i was going to see maybe they ran out of es, it happens. but then two es in report. >> they should go d-e-c. >> good thinking. >> you can take over the sign. >> the principal should be fired. i don't care what it is. bah humbug. >> i like that. >> still ahead is cheap gas pumping up resales? we sit down with the owner of retail outlets all across the u.s. the ceo of toutman properties.
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>> three days away from christmas and oil is down a whopping 40% in the last three month, which could have shoppers hitting the mall this holiday season according to shopper track this past saturday is expected to be the number one sales day this year. raking in as much as $10 billion in sales alone. let's bring in the chief operating officer of toutman centers, bill toutman. always good to see you. >> thank you very much for having me. >> have you seen the impact of low gas prices? >> not really in our business. i think it impacts the target walmart business more because the disposable income it creates is more immediately relevant to them. i mean, a lot of things going on. the stock prices moving up have a much bigger impact on the upscale business and clearly we've seen this christmas that the upscale businesses have been stronger than the more modern businesses on the whole. we're hearing for the first time out of luxury businesses that their comps are better in america than china or the middle east for this season. which we haven't heard, i can't remember the last time i heard that. >> so let me ask you, a lot has
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been made about the internet's effect on retail. you have a different product offering, you have a mall. are you immune from that effect versus a b or c mall? >> the internet is impacting everything. it's impacting the way the retailers operate. the way they distribute their merchandise, the way they keep their merchandise. the multiple ways they can sell that merchandise. it's impacting the customer. she researches online before she comes to the mall. she's in the mall, doesn't see the size and buys from online. having said that, there's no question that online is growing faster than in store. but at this point retailers can't even tell the difference half the time between what's a sale that was occasioned by the store or by online since the customer is mixing the two so frequently. >> what has the impact been, if any, of apple and the iphone 6 to mall traffic? 71% of your portfolio have an
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apple store. a lot of landlords say when there's a new product launch -- we actually have this graphic, which i thought was fascinating. shows sales at retail rates when there are launches and it goes up. the traffic goes up in the mall. >> actually more than 71. >> more than 71. >> we're like 16 of 18 i think have apple. >> 16 of 18. wow. >> listen, the phone was huge when we had -- they know from their own sales. combination of the new ipad and the new phone had a big impact on sales. that clearly has impacted traffic. we just opened a small in sarasota. and i was sitting at the opening with terry lundgren. i'm looking down from the second level to the first level, and there are like 500 people lined up to get into the new apple store. and i looked at him and said, somebody forgot to tell all these people that brick and mortar is dead. and somebody forget to tell the 800 people lined up in front of his store to get in as well. so i think there's no question that apple, when they have a new launch is going to drive tras
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traffic. not all that traffic then goes and shops at the soft goods apparel retailers that are in the mall, but at least some of it does. >> either way, you get a percentage of your tenants' sales, so whether it comes from an apple or comes from the seller of a sweater, it doesn't really make a difference to you, does it? >> no, but remember percentage is a very small percentage of our overall income statement. 3% and 5%. most all revenue comes from rent. because while we care about sales because that's an indicator of how much tenants can afford to pay in rent because if they're doing $100 in sales they can afford to pay a lot less rent than if they're doing $1,000 in sales. >> quickly on your asia plans. you're mentioning that for first time luxury retailers are seeing better sales here than in asia. does that make you take a pause when it comes to expanding there. but a lot of analysts are saying that is the wild card in your
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story. >> i think it is a wild card in the sense that i think the analysts are, you know, not thrilled with our strategy, but they understand it. we've done a lot of -- i think we've done a good job of explaining it. we're not building what i would describe as true luxury malls in asiap wafujing is our partner and shinseki is our partner and they're like bloomingdale's. the other thing i would say is you make these investments in the long-term. you can't decide i'm going to invest and not invest quart bir qua quarter. you have to make your decision, is this the right market, is there growth in the market, do we have the right kind of incomes in the market to do the sales we need? then merchandise it the way you need in order to maximize the sales potential. >> bill, thanks for stopping by. i know it's a busy time for you. bill taubman, the ceo of taubman properties. >> an interesting story.
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of course these guys are constantly looking at their portfolio of assets. they had a big sale to start october. this is something people get exciting about. it's a name that's been delivering steady growth. the asia story is actually very interesting because there's not a lot of guys that have they infrastructure to play it. i stay in the name, no reason to get out. >> i'll throw a tangent on you. i'll go with sotheby's. because what bill said about luxury in the u.s. being better. sotheby's has been hurt because everybody is concerned about luxury in asia. if the u.s. is going to pick that up, then the stock at these prices looks great. >> we have the chance to go to the mall. >> yes. >> you go though that place, 15 publicly traded companies. >> there we are. a tesla. >> but there are two names -- this becomes a joke but there's a codoba hid beden in there. >> any time you can bring codoba in there.
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>> come on. tiffany's sold off. >> i was shopping. >> two of the properties in the shore hills mall, that was great. we got a sampler. >> holiday sampler. >> one trader making a big bet that goprocould see swings of 8% on the back of tomorrow's massive lockup. the details when we return. cou 8% on the back of tomorrow's massive lockup. the details when we return. cute little guy, huh?
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this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.
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goproshears rallied 7%. the options market is implying the stock could move another 8% by the end of the week. so which direction? dan nathan in dallas, texas, with the detail. >> look at him leaning back in his chair. >> comfy. >> here's the thing, guy, if you're a trader on this short holiday week, this is kind of like the main event here. you think of gopro, it was a one way freight train for most of the year since its ipo back in june. the six-month ipo coming tomorrow. 108 million shares. but we all remember what happened. as soon as they kind of broke that lockup agreement and they've done two share offerings, november 19th they sold 12 million shares at $75, the stock's down 22% since then. today's rally in front of
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today's lockup is kind of curious. we know it's a liquidity driven story and there's high short interest. a lot of today's options activity was in the december 26 weekly 54 and 50 puts, but there's an 8% implied move from here until friday's close that at the money straddle for this week is offered about 4 1/2 dollars. if you wanted to buy the move, you would need a move above 62 1/2 or below 53 1/2. and here's the thing. the move looks pretty fair. when you think back to some of the lockups that we've seen, twitter got demolished, facebook rallied huge. i'll mention one more point. all of those shares that are coming off lock, not all will be sold but it will increase liquidity dramatically. the borrow in growp dpgrow -- gopro option prices are likely to come down in the next two
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weeks with all this new flow coming into the market. >> thanks for that. enjoy texas. dan nathan joining us from texas. for options action joip us friday at 5:30, there is a show. >> dan was actually riding a horse in that shot. >> good looking cowboy hat he had on, too. >> does disney make it to $100? >> i actually think it does. they've done an extraordinary job. there is something about a gravitational pull of a stock in the low to mid-90s going to 100. yes, we're long. >> tim, is starbucks a buy before releasing numbers for christmas eve gift card sales? >> the gift card sales numbers that are coming out christmas eve. i do own it for a long-term growth story, 15 to 20%. they're going to compound that over the next few years. so many sales challenges for these guys, i don't think they've realized it. it's one of the best run companies in their space. the valuation is decent. i stayed long.
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>> are you laughing at our viewer tweet? >> no. >> you're thinking about dan. >> yeah. >> it's not a cowboy hat. >> maybe driving his horse to starbucks to pick up a latte is a funny visual for me. >> is it time to buy free pfrt mac? >> no, obviously this company is in a space you don't want to be. the copper trade, we have to see what happens with the chinese fund copper that's going on. and they got very gassy last year. you don't want to be in that. >> you want to explain gassy. >> natural gas. they bought natural gas. i thought that was clear. >> gee, this viewer wants to play a game with you. >> i love the game. >> russell 2000 etf or qqq. >> i would say a close above 121 i would rather iwm. i'm not trying to be jerky here. >> why would you be jerky? >> 121 otherwise stay away from
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both. >> anybody who says they're not trying to be jerky is jerky. >> see, that's jerky. >> karen finerman is going viral. karen is revealing the five dumbest things she's heard on wall street this year in a digital exclusive. >> i never cease to be amazed by what happens on wall street every day every year. and i constantly amused by the downright absurd and highly suspect messages that ceos and analysts put forth and the flimsy attempts they make to pull the wool over people's eyes. here are my fave favorite examples from 2014. >> want to know what they are? >> ooh. >> get your second string going. log on to fastmoney.cnbc.com now and watch the clip and tell us what you think were the dumbest things were by writing in the comment section. give us a little hint. >> oh, all right. i'll give you a little hint. our pal carl was involved in one of them. >> oh. >> were you calling him the "d" word? >> no, i was not.
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>> but he might have said a d-word thing. >> or maybe not. but it happens every year, though, just astounding. just some of the stuff they expect us to believe. >> right. >> i love that tease. what a tease. coming up on "mad money" cramer is letting you know how a fantasy app is leading to real money. jim's hiding a sector that could give you squeaky clean returns at the top of the hour. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,
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tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 call 1-877-670-3357. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or visit schwab.com/trading. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 schwab trading services. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 your go-to for trading know-how. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ♪ time for the final trades. go around the horn. tim. >> i'm particularly excited about the 25th holiday gift card sales that are coming out of starbucks and long that event. all seriousness, i am long, i stay long. this stock has retaken the '80 level. good earnings momentum. >> i like tlt trade today. i know it sounds boring but you buy that tomorrow. >> the gravitational pull towards 100, like cvs. we're long.
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>> you know today is a special day. >> pete najarian's birthday. >> ats ps like 90 in nfl years. gillea gilead. talked about the potential my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money". welcome to crameric. my job is not just to entertain, but to coach and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc, or tweet me @jim cramer. the stock market is its own beast, wholly apart from the real economy. we tend to think that what's positive for regular people is also positive for stocks.
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