hi, everybody. welcome back. i'm louisa bojesen. >> and i'm seema mody. the russian government looking at he early volatility for the currency. >> s&p downgrades a number of european and u.s. oilmakers citing a dramatic deterioration in the oil price outlook. >> domestic internet services

partially restored in north korea following a nine-hour outage, but u.s. officials deny any action against pyongyang. >> and another defeat, the greek government is once again tested as lawmakers head into a second presidential vote that could bring the country closer to snap elections. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> hi, everybody. good morning. glad you're with us here on the next two hours on "worldwide exchange." we've seen another volatile saegz for the ruble. it's given up exchange against the dollar, but trading a little higher against the dollar at the moment. in the last hour, a report emerged that the country's prime minister told the largest state exporter to sell part of their forex reserves. if it's in an effort to try to

stabilize the currency. it intends to hold consultations with these exporters on these particular measures. the ruble has lost almost 70% against the greenback against the dollar. >> the worst performing currency so far this year. speaking about russia and the broader implications, societe generale could miss its target in russia for several years. the slump in oil prices, slump in the ruble and sanctions from the west are all hurting the french lender's russian unit, rozbank. earlier, cnbc spoke to societe generale and asked about his convictions regarding russia. >> to find a political solution for that situation so that we avoid to service too much. >> let's discuss more about

russia. the head of investment strategy at thomas miller investment joins us here in the studio. also with us, otilia don. i'm going to kick it off with you. let's talk about the broader implications of a potential in russia specifically on europe, which, of course, is one of russia's biggest trading partners. indeed. so what would we be looking at? there could be carmakers and overall, the impact on the eu are markets could actually be quite limited. the largest exports to russia are coming from lithuania and the other baltic countries and we are still only about 70% of the economy. >> and let's talk about some of the european banks that have exposure to russia. italy, france has their capital

tied up in the country. as we were just talking about, 62% of their tangible equity is tied up in russia. that's going to citigroup. if you're an investor and you are shares in some of these european banks, would you be worried given exposure to the country, russia? >> i think the european bank already concerns about greece, concerns about italy. >> i find it really interesting just what's going on to the banking sector in russia at the moment. and whether or not that could have ramifications for some of the other banks in russia, whether there could be a contagion of having to bail out the industrial. would you think that is going to be an issue? >> a pronouncement in russia.

last week, the parliament rush through for the capitalization of banks amounting to 1 trillion rubles, depending on the exchange rate. but 1 is trillion rubles is something that could support some of the largest banks. gazprom bank and etb have asked for state aid. what's been offered now in the top bank. >> so is this an indication about how russia potentially faces another financial crisis and vindicating that, whether that's too strong or wording or not we can discuss that. but are we going to have to see another leg of this in the financial sector, do you think? >> probably more capitalization and more lending, state lending for the banks. >> yeah. and bringing it back to europe again, does that just mean that we don't want to get involved with emerging markets because of

worries of a knock on impact from russian trade, i guess? we've seen it spilling over into some of the other emerging market trades. >> yes. the back drop to investment in eye merging markets in general. it is likely to be more capitalization among russian banks. i know that russian banks also -- the broader financial sector. >> do you think that the markets are overly concerned about what is happening in russia given that it only makes up about 3% of global economic output? >> i don't think it's overly concerned. in fact, things will get worse before they get better. and only just in the last few days, a real threat to the financial sector in russia.

ur mentioned already the knock on effect with europe. >> so the worst isn't over. >> we're probably looking at real difficult year next year in 2015. you mentioned 17% interest rate on the economy under the nonperforming loans, how the financial sector is going to perform if they don't have access to international markets. 2015, there will likely be a difficult year for russia. >> that rate hike is likely going to impact growth. is a recession inevitable for russia at this point? >> well, it starts to look like that. the russian economy depends on oil prices and is on gas prices. every dollar down from the price of a dial translates into an economic loss for russia. >> 50% of their government revenue comes from oil. a big impact there. we're going to leave it there.

louisa, over to you. >> so yesterday when we spoke on the close last night, we were looking at our european equity markets managing to close out the session on a higher note. just as we've seen the indications earlier -- european markets being flat to slightly higher. stoxx europe 600 higher by around half a percentage point or so, 0.4%. and i think somebody has something on my microphone. i'll keep talking. the stoxx europe 600 higher by around 0.5%. that's what we're looking at. when it comes to our general european equity markets at the moment, just moving on, the ftse 100 higher by 0.5%. xetra dax up by a bit, the cac

up by 0.5% and the ftse mib flattish to lower. some of the top stocks we've been following include the lights of unilever. can they invest in procter & gamble for an undisclosed figure? the deal is expected to be finalized during the first 456 of next year. u.s. shares in nutreco falling sharply after the attemplower a cargill drops plans to acquire the dutch company. somebody is running my prompts way too fast. i can't follow. if we just scroll back and i'll tell you a little bit about what's going on with bbva. there we go. bbva selling back cifh resulting in a $1 billion payout for the spanish lending. and last but not least, bank of

depisca said it sold nearly $1 million of loans to an italian lender and it struck a similar deal back in june. there are a lot of things going on. >> and we make it happen, don't we? >> absolutely. >> it's a tough job. and we have a couple other stories coming up. over the next two hours, the comcast/time warner merger hit a road block. one expert tess us the top stocks to own in 2015. and electronics expected to hit an all-high this holiday season. wal be the hottest toys? we break it down. carl likely group, a private equity firm, we look at some of the most unusual ways folks are saying merry christmas this festive season. that's coming up.

and what a year 2014 has been. we have a look at the top five things that will likely dominate money and markets in 2015. take a look. >> like it or not, u.s. monetary policy will continue to

influence market movers next year. the big question is, will the american economy be strong enough for janet yellen to go on a tightening mode much, much earlier or will the external derail that position? joef seas, if the largest economy in asia weakens significantly, nations around the world will likely feel the chill. japan's abe got a push to move ahead with abe-nomics, but will he be able to change things that have caused them to fall behind schedule and expectations? conservative and labor in the uk are going for the big prize. but if the independence party wins more seats, it will send a cooler signal to the campaign to quit the eu is gaining momentum. and the price of oil also a

key flash point for global economies, after opec decided to keep on pumping. >> so how should you place your money in 2015? still with us is abe oroni sg i from thomas miller investment. abi, one of the main take aways i find from 2014 has been the rally in stocks and bonds. no forecast or no investment professional i spoke to in early january was forecasting this type of move. do you think we'll see that tend in 2015, as well? >> i think it's an economic back drop. our take on driving for 2015, that's because on the previous year and convergence of trends, the story divergent. and i think that will be the

cue. and that will fuel divergence in policy. >> which economy outcomes are you talking about? >> just like the rise in interest rates? >> just like the rise in interest rates. >> we'll see improvement at the margin. but that was for the eurozone. that will drive the evidence. >> what would you recommend people buy and what would you sell during the new year? >> with some of the uncertainty

in oil, in politics. how do i reposition that or do i reposition it? >> it's a game. but also the stock imported will expect the markets to actually be the -- to remain the leader. so vis-a-vis our global equities. >> and you don't think europe looks nice and cheap and a good time to step in if you believe oil hasn't unraveled everything? >> everyone pretty much takes advantage. i.e., that will be qe. it will make a difference at the margins of the real economy. i think even on the fiscal policy front, the mood needs to

be moving somewhat. >> do you think the expectation in sovereign bond buying has been priced into this market? even if we do, in fact, get that announcement from mario draghi, we could potentially not see a movement in equities because people are expecting that and pricing that intiet market. >> yes. there will be some element of that. a lot of what you will expect and that is correct. i think the issue will be what type of qe is. is it large enough.? then i think it will be -- >> i would totally think there would be a market move. i don't know. with the additional move, but then the issue is whether the market once again, whether it's

going to be enough. >> that's why the markets are important. this is not just a talking gesture. in fact, the market to the negative. they need to do that. >> the euro, if it continues to weaken against the u.s. dollar. does that continue? that's been one of mario draghi's strategies. >> the currency guest in around 40 minutes time or something. you're staying with us for the time being as well, abi. get your e-mails to us here on the show. worldwide@cnbc.com. >> and we're on twitter, as

well. we want to update you because it is christmas and if you're an economist, you're happy today ahead of christmas because you get the gdp data, huh? same central bank, 2014, gdp growth seen at 1.4%. the bank of spain is seen gdp at 1.4%. they say the estimate is growing at 1.4% during the quarter. we have the u.s., french and gdp data in today's session. we're talking about greece, the potential wild card for next year. ath.sis bracing for a key second vote today. remember that sell-off? some greek reports suggest he could claim 169 votes in today's

second round. this would still fall shot short of the 180 required on a crucial vote on december 29th. in a further twist, the prime minister has said he would be open to early elections in 2015 if parliament backed for the presidency. last week, cnbc caught up with the minister to perform in athens. he sounded optimistic, the majority of mps support the government's choice for the presidency. >> we all know the votes would be the one on december 29. our constitutional provides for three votes, but ohm on the third vote does it provide for 180 threshold. so i still think it is possible to obtain that number because i think that mps are going to seriously consider the consequences of the vote over the next ten days. >> the nation's second largest lender by assets.

. >> it's the democratic process. less than adversity and i'm confident this is another opportunity to sell at that rate. despite saying that samara has made the right decision in calling the snap poll, the former leader warned over the potential consequences. >> controversies is out for social and economic disaster. >> from greece to the ecb, ecb

governing council member arto hanson has warned the central bank should not act in haste when it comes to buying government bonds. in an interview with a german newspaper, the head of estonia central bank says the move would be, quote, very borderline. hanson suggested the ecb could end up illegally financing member states. still with us, abi muiji. does this concern you that we're starting to see mixed opinions on whether or not in fact we will see that additional quantitative easing in early 2015? >> it doesn't sprieft me. i think the surprise will be they come out all lined up with some sort of concerns on qe. but i think this problem with the easing can be policy measure.

and i can in line with my expectation, we all expect -- eventually do some form of qe. >> do you think we're going to be looking at central pinification of the eurozone? >> outside deflation on the eurozone levels will send out the -- several members states are saying -- the question is what will the ecb do about it? the problem with hindsight is that it's not doing enough. >> a quick question, actually, on greece because we just --

with var your leaders about the election and the results and what that could do to the economy if deemus does not get the support that he needs. that raises the likelihood of greece exiting the eurozone. how does that impact your investment? >> i don't see, in the nearest time, anyway, the next couple of years. i think it's hard to see during that period it correct it. >> as it's called, this is an economics crisis. the private sector. and what remains by the government is huge costs.

>> many arguing that he wants to keep greece in europe, but they want forgiveness and whether or not that happens, that's another story. structuring at some point. clearly that remains unclear. >> wow. great story. >> thank you very much for being with us. abi oladimeji, is that right? >> abi, yes. >> ahead of investment strategy thomas miller. still to come -- >> still to come, energy stocks move higher as oil eeks out a rebound, but will opec's resistance keep change in check? we discuss that next.

welcome back. the s&p de teowngrades oil majo.

domestic internet services are partially restored in north korea following a nine-hour outage. but u.s. officials deny any involvement in the cyber action against pyongyang. >> and another round, another dispute for the greek government is tested as lawmakers head into a second presidential vote that could bring the country closer to snap elections. >> we're just sitting tight and waiting for the gdp data we were talking about earlier. we have all the gdp data today, we've had the french final third quarter gdp. 0.3% staying in line with expectations. we've got the u.s. gdp data later on this an, which a lot of

analysts are expecting could be revised up. we're looking at a figure, an expectation could rise to 4.3%. which means the last two consecutive quarters would be above 4% for the u.s. and we haven't seen that happening since something like 2003. >> and the imf cited the uk and the u.s. as the two bright spots in the world economy given that they're actually seeing growth of acceleration in job growth as well as a recovery in the housing sector. so, of course, this number from the uk and the u.s. >> i also want to mention we had danish gdp data revised to 1% year on year versus the preliminary 0.9%. this is out a bit earlier this morning.

breaking news. >> what is helping their economy? likes like the main driver. >> they have a lot of big companies that are massively present and i'm just being told in my ear that we have the uk gdp data. 0.7% on the quarter. unchanged from the last estimate on q3, the uk gdp data. revised to plus 276% year on year. the last estimate was 3%. so it's been revised down year on year. the uk third quarter gdp data. it was forecast to come in at 0.8% quarter on quarter. so it came in weaker than anticipated, but unchanged from the last estimate that we saw. but nevertheless, on a year on year basis, a big weaker. >> and we're getting a look at the housing sector in the uk. uk mortgage approvals for home purchases. 36,763 in the month of november. that is a comparison to 42,830

in october. so slightly lower month over month. nonetheless, still an increase in the month of november. >> interaction with sterling on the back of this. off by a quarter of a percentage point or so. the sweat what dax and the ftse mib both have negative oil consuming to dominate? >> it really is. food prices continue to edge higher as traders look to buy on the recent dip. he continues to be vocal about this and markets have been responding day by day on the back of what the oil minister has to say about the fact that he does not want to cut oil production despite the recent

move to the down side. >> now we're going to wait. >> now we're going to wait because i'm winning, it's up. this continues to be a volatile trade. i think we have to put a deadline on our bet. maybe mid 250 20 15. >> and the bet, just for those who weren't watching yesterday, i think oil prices have hit a bottom and we continue to move up from here. >> and i think we have the potential of going a bit lower. i'm a bit lower next year. >> is that oversupply in the market? >> at the moment, i think it's a trade. but what do i know? it seems like the trade at the moment is -- you know, we trade a bit lower. we keep buying equities at the moment. >> another thing that does work

in your favor is the stronger dollar. i still expect the greenback to strengthen going forward. stronger dollar, bad for oil prices, of course. >> we would love to hear from you. keep your tweets coming through. downgrading its outlook on several majors as a result of the continuing price declines. the ratings agency say the new outlook reflected a combination of unconstrained supply on weaker demand. the outlook, shell, bp, they've been revised down to a negative now. >> s&p downgraded several u.s. services oil companies after completing a review of the sector. the agency cut ratings on weather ford, noble energy and revised its outlook on neighbors to negative. we should point out negative one of the outperformer last week gained around 30% just in last week's trade.

these downgrades are due to be expected, spending cuts on exploration and production. taking a look at how the shares are responding today, actually it's all in the green. continuing this one to the upside, up better than 8.5%. noble energy up 0.7%. weatherford up 3.4%. joining us now to discuss more on the oil trade, how to trade these oil producers is garrett lewis, senior oil straft gist at bnp paribas. thank you for joining us. let's talk about the oil trade. who do you agree with, by the way? mid 2015? >> first quarter. >> fist quarter of next year, where do you see oil prices headed next year, lower than where we are today or higher? >> in the last seven days, it would appear that the oil prices have reached a bottom.

we have the data suggesting managed money to increase. i think we'll see short covering ahead of the holding period. but i agree with your earlier comments, that the fundamentals start to tighten somewhat and we're getting improvement. so to get back to your original question in europe, before the break, i think it might have a $4 or $5 leg down after the new year, but i think we've essentially hit the bottom. >> and let's talk about the trade on oil producers. how do you trade these names, specifically if that impacts their profitability going forward? >> i'm no equity analyst at the moment.

first of all, we'll have less free cash flow if they are paying any dividends, less cash flow to invest in the business. and at certain levels. so it's far more exposed than the upstream there. they have the natural hedge because the move on the up extreme, and theory on the downstream because crude is cheap. the question is which companies are able to with stand the period of low prices. i don't think there's a paradigm shift in action by opec. sanctions prices recover, start to improve in the secretary half of next year. it's a case of those that can

with stand that period of the prices and equity analysts the opportunity some oil price companies that are with the cash flows you might consider there. >> do you think that we're going to see that we're into big stock buildings in 2015? is that going to have an impact? >> yes. the demand and nonopec supply just quickly to lower oil prices. and i think the answer to that is no, we don't and just as many what have you. and as long as operating profits in the extreme sector may be carry on, producing, one is with opec. so the first half of 2015, we are going to see a large stock prices and, therefore, the prices will be weaker. the question is, is it already

priced in or are we on another leg down? the second half, i think we start to see some response to low prices. but the demand price kicks economic growth and low oil prices. leading to higher oil demand. and in the case of nonopec supply, particularly in north america where some decisions to defer drilling in fields where the rates run at 40% to 50% to year means that we might start to see better fundamentals in the second half of the year. the crisis won't be over in that sense. what happened is to price in an expectation of further improvements. and i think we start to see that in the second half of 2015. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you for your time, senior oil strategist at bnp paribas. >> and i'm looking at some of the current uk accounts data that hit the wires within the last five minutes or so. and you're looking at a deficit soaring to 27 billion pounds.

also one of the robes why we saw sterling moving a bit lower against the dollar. so the uk current account deficit coming in a lot higher than what has previously been anticipated. so -- >> that's interesting. yeah, it's mostly been ee emergencying markets that have been dealing with widening current account deficits. that's one of the main issues india is dealing with. clearly, it's not just a problem or a challenge for emerging markets, but even developed economies like the uk are seeing a widening current account deficit to 27 billion pounds, something that the markets are respond to go as louisa was just pointing out. now, the sterling pound trading at session lows against the u.s. dollar. to the u.s., u.s. republicans have vowed to make the controversial keystone pipeline one of their primary policy objectives in 2015 despite stern opposition from president barack obama as well as waning enthusiasm due to slumping crude prices.

with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the project, is canada exploring other options to get its crude to the u.s. gulf coast? nancy takes a look. >> the yeahs are 59, the nays are 59. the bill is not passed. >> the most forceful attempt yet to get u.s. government approval for the keystone pipeline failed by just one vote in the u.s. senate. the battle may be lost, but the war rages on as republicans vow to resurrect the bill when they control both chambers of congress from january next year. >> this will be an early item on the agenda in the next congress and i'm very confident that senator hogan's bill will succeed and we'll be able to get it down to the president. >> but will the president approve the plan? the white house insists no decision will be made until a state department environmental review is completed, but some

analysts say he may yet do a deal, passing keystone if republicans back other agendas. meanwhile, north of the boarder in canada, crude come what may. >> the longer it gets delayed, canada has to look the a it options, as well. we're looking at rail, which is a newcomer to the discussion here. having been in canada, we have to ensure whatever the product moves by rail or by plane, it has to be done safely. >> .safety fears are paramount, especially following a tragic event in 2013 which a train derailed and killed 47 people. >> once you put it on a ship, it can easily head down to the gulf coast. >> the u.s. shale boom could

provide the cast listic change when it comes to the direction of canadian crude. >> i think you're going to find plenty of demand elsewhere in the world, particularly in asia, and we are working pretty hard to solve the bottleneck so they can deliver oil out to the east and west coast of canada and get it shipped on to the rest of the world. >> but it's not only to asia. europe could become a major destination if the pipeline is approved. this will boost oil's value by closing at higher international prices and toous money could be back to solve the transport issue. china he's property developer wanda trading lower today in honda's biggest ipo in

over four years. emily tan has more on the debut. >> dalian wanda makes its debut today. concerns about debt and optimism face the potential rebound. the developer of shopping malls and office buildings raised $3.7 billion in a scaled down offer, but managed to steer the largest ipo this year. fund rates are going towards, what else? more shopping malls. wanda has warned the golden age for the property market hats passed. hence the group is now looking to extend further into the culture industry. reports he's eyeing a stake in hollywood from lion's gate, the maker of the hunger games. back to you. investment bankers could be set for their best christmas

since the financial crisis because new data coming from reuters shows us ipo activity reached almost $865 billion in 2014, the busiest year since 2007. alibaba continued to be this year's biggest cash cow. now, legendary british rock singer joe cochran was made famous with his cover with the beatles hit with a little help, friday friend. he passed away at this age of 70. joe cocker, a little help from my friends, "you are so beautiful." amazing talent. >> absolutely. >> so talented. so he died after a long battle with lung cancer. kate snow from nbc news filed this report. ♪ what would you do if i sang out of tune ♪ >> the song we'll all remember

most was a seattles cover from woodstock infused with that iconic voice. and the way he moved, those would become his trademarks, easy for a john balushi to spoof on "saturday night life." cocker was a good sport, joining belushi on set. ♪ love lift uts up where we belong ♪ >> and the song behind a steamy scene in movies. ♪ you can leave your hat on >> his career was so much more than any one song. >> god gave me a voice. it's one of the simplest instruments around, really. >> inspired, you often said, by the great ray charles. >> he has taken some of the things that he's heard from me and put himself into it. >> just last year, his final tour in europe before going home to rural colorado.

♪ i will try not to sing out of tune ♪ >> paul mccartney said today he would be forever grateful to joe cocker for turning a beatles hit into a soul anthem. an unforgettable performer whose music lives on. kate snow, nbc, new york. ation. ation. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems. so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.

north korea's internet service is back online after an outage on monday. the obama administration has promised a proportional response for the attack, although north korea has denied involvement. nbc's howie jackson filed this report during the brockout. >> for hours now, north korea has been cut off from the world's internet. >> it means that they can't community out and no one can communicate in. >> it could be something simple, perhaps a router meltdown or something more sinister like an outage attack. the outage comes three days after the government said north korea was responsible for hacking sony pictures, promise ago proportional response. two u.s. officials familiar with the situation denied an american role in the outage, though the

state department was not as definitive. >> as we implement our responses, some will be seen, some may not be seen. >> north korea had its own response threatening to blow up targets in the u.s., ready for what it calls cyber warfare after the u.s. asked north korea to admitted it was behind the war. >> i don't think it was an act of war. i think it was an act of cyber vandalism that was very costly, very expensive. >> analysts say it could cost sony $100 million after pulling "the interview." season knew now says it's making new plans to release the film, perhaps online, despite hackers insistence sony keep the movie under wraps. >> the big question is what do the hackers have, what will they release and will they do anything if sony goes ahead with this film? >> the hackers already released the movie "annie" prompting a

note to staff today thanking staff for their period of time. a tough few weeks for sony and it may not be over yet. >> we were just trying our cards at rapping during the break. it was really great. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> amazing. but carlisle's co-ceo david rubenstein is feeling the beat this festive season after investing in dr. dre's lucrative beats. i do like dre. he was inspired to perform a rap to say merry christmas to investors. take a look at this. >> hello? is this thing on. dr. dre inspired me to write my own rap. >> let's hear it. ♪

♪ takes a lot of brains to do what we do ♪ ♪ looking for a way to make some dough for you ♪ ♪ energy, commodity, we do it all ♪ ♪ pick up the phone and give us a call ♪ ♪ carlyle group is the place to be ♪ ♪ we're global, we're mobile, we're aim to go please ♪ ♪ >> go online, lps, pl, lps, server lps. ♪ >> haven't done anything like this, really, since my bar mitzvah. >> that was epic coming from a private equity head. we wanted to ask all of you, can you picture your boss doing that? can you picture our boss here at cnbc doing that? >> i think so. i think we shall challenge them. >> yeah, why not. let's see if they get innovative this holiday season. we've been asking you, how would you like your ceo or your boss to wish you a merry christmas this holiday season. if you want to join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange," get in touch with us. tweet us, @cnbcwex,

worldwide@cnbc.com. louisa and i feel ip expired by what we just watched. tomorrow, coming up, we will have our own holiday jingle, a very customized wex version. we just discussed this, louisa, it's going to be wonderful. >> private. privately. >> we're teasing it. tomorrow, expect a good holiday jingle, right? >> i'm not sure. >> it's not a rap, but i know tomorrow is christmas for you in danish customs. >> i know, tomorrow, december 24th, danish christmas. anyway, write in. find us on twitter. not all bosses, though, are delivering festive cheer this year. the pope has outlined 15 ills that he said were weakening. they included narcissism,

hypocrisy, cowardess, spiritual alzheimer's, he said, as well. he was pretty shocked at the words there. he's seen as being a new pope. >> exactly, exactly. >> a real modern day pope. >> i think it's been great to hear what he has been able to do. he played an instrumental role in bringing cuba and the u.s. together. it's amazing what he's been able to accomplish this year. so perhaps you think a bonus is the best way for your boss to say merry christmas. the good news is that year-end bonuses are up, but the bad news is don't count on receiving one. what? find out more on that story perhaps why you're not getting paid as much as you were hoping this holiday season. google has unveiled the first fully functional prototype of its self-driving car. the company revealed a version of the car back in may. the latest model boasts upgrades

like functional headlights, always good when they work, as well as updates to the breaking, steering, sensors that keep the car alert to obstacles on the road. the company plans to begin testing on the road in the spring. there are issues about who is going to cover things like insurance. >> insurance regulation. driverless cars, louisa, you and i can sit back, get from point a to point b website moving a finger. high rate of errors could be an issue. we have more coming up. central bank divergence, back to the markets. could be the real trend in 2015. how do you trade it? that's coming up next on "worldwide exchange." xkç

it is 10:00 a.m. herein in london, 5:00 a.m. on the east coast. thank you for joining us here on "worldwide exchange." girl power, i'm seema mody. >> and i'm louisa bojesen. good morning. these are your headlines from around the world. >> first up are the markets. u.s. futures pointing higher after the s&p hit its 50th record high of the year. can you believe it? investors turn their focus now to a data deluge in thin christmas trade. the russians ordered exporters to support the ruble by selling their foreign reserves leading to early volatilities for the currency.

>> u.s. regulators hit the pause button on the review of the massive merger between time warner cable and comcast, the parent of cnbc. >> and domestic internet services are partially restored in north korea, following a nine-hour outage. u.s. officials deny any involvement in cyber action against pyongyang. hi, everybody. welcome. >> yeah. great to have you here. >> i'm he super happy to be here. wilfred is on vacation now. >> he's watching, though, which is wonderful. >> it's interesting, it's the holiday season and you would expect traders to be taking a step back and watching the markets perhaps a couple hours a day, but that doesn't seem to be the indicates. another record day on wall street. the 50th record close for the s&p 500. pretty amazing. >> but i think that they are. i think there's low liquidity.

that enhances the moves that we tend to see on these really light days, as well. >> lowest volume day yesterday. >> exactly. so it takes less to move it and maybe some repositioning. we tend to see window dressing coming up at the end of the year, taking stock of the year, taking profits, too. if you have managed to do well in december does she your profits now and say let's wait now and see what happens with the price of oil which has been dictating market performance. on that note, take a look at u.s. futures. how are they trading on this tuesday? right now, dow jones industrial indicating a higher move by around 26 points. this rally that we've been seeing on wall street could continue. the nasdaq has been trading at a 14 1/2 year high. the s&p 500, as we were telling you, did close at a near record and it is up about 2 points in premarket. diving into the european markets, what are they showing us? uk gdp did come in slightly below expectations, b but

nonetheless, we are seeing equities move higher. the pound has been trading at a session low in today's trade. that current account deficit widening more than we were expecting. the ftse 100 up about 14 points. germany, an underperformer today as you look across the screen. the xetra dax down about 4 points. the cac 40, ftse mib. the french and italian markets holding on to a gain this tuesday morning, louisa. >> definitely. when looking at what's taking place elsewhere in the markets, currency markets hanging on to these range trades that we've seen. we're looking at the euro/dollar over here, 1.22 seems to be the handle that we're hanging on to at the moment in trade. we were talking about the potential for ecb action into and what that is going to mean. a number of analysts still think the currency has lower to go. we'll be talking a lot more about the currency markets, get some reprosecute dictions on 2015 from a kurnltsy guest coming up in this hour.

aussie/dollar, against the u.s. dollar, we've got the pound against the dollar. a little bit lower. we had the current account deficit here in the uk flying, 27 billion pounds, a lot higher than anticipated figure there sending sterling quite a bit lower initially. also we saw the gdp data for the uk coming in in line, but slightly weaker in some fronts, as well. in line with the last month, but weaker when looking at the overall reading and when looking on a year on year basis, we had a rescission downwards. looking at the xhod i theties, silver and gold trading higher here on early trade. brent, shy of 1%, $60 a barrel. nymex, higher by 1.25%, seema. >> sticking with the oil trade, s&p has downgraded its outlook on several on him oil marriages as a result of a continuing price declines. traths agency said the new outlooks reflected, quote, a combination of relatively

unconstrained supply and weaker demand. the outlook for shell, total and bp have all been revised down to negative. and you can see the stocks, though still trading higher in today's trade. royal dutch shell, total, bp, all in the green. now, downgrading several u.s. oil services companies after completing the review of the sector. s&p cut ratings on weatherford and noble energy and revised its outlook on neighbors, as well. >> the outlook reflects spending cuts on production. checking shares of both companies in german trade with a close in german trade still. but a little bit higher on the last session. it was interesting to try to figure out, you know, when do you get in? when do you get into the market, what other opportunities? >> clearly, valuationwise, these companies do look attractive given that they have a significant decline due to the declining price in oil.

>> there's a great piece on market watch. and they talk about gray swans. not black swans that are unexpected, but gray swans are the things that you're not super surprised happened, but you're a little bit surprised. for example, ebola would be a gray swan where it's nothing new, but yet if it comes back again, well, then it's something that, you know, could surprise us. >> markets have to respond to. >> but the big talk about how the fed, if it moves too soon or if it moves too late, that could be a gray swan. a major reversal in oil, interestingly enough, could be a gray swan, too. now we've had this huge drop, but if something happens, like production is put back online again quickly or geopolitical tensions increase or what have you -- >> will oim respond. >> and you see a massive response to oil in the upside, that would be a great response and unnerve markets, too. >> that will be interesting. it hasn't been pricing that in. ite been more about the supply and demand equation.

and the inaction from opec, does that have broader implications on global growth, especially going into next year? saudi oil minister has been very very vocal over the past couple of days. he says i don't care if prices crash to $20. we are not budging. we are not cutting production. >> it's a lot more complicated, as well. i understand opec. i understand why it is they don't want to step in all the time last minute to save the day, basically. >> well, they don't necessarily need to at some point. >> exactly. and maybe oil doesn't have to be $100 a barrel. maybe there's a level that's more acceptable in the short to medium term. >> it's great story. >> write in. let us know what you think. you can find us on twitter. now, our next guest says the commodity linked currencies, that this could be a big focus next year due to volatility in energy prices, as we were just discussing. jane foley is a senior currency strategist at rabul bank. jane, good to see you here

coming up to the end of the year. let's kick off with some of these commodity currencies and where they're heading. is there an obvious trade heading into next year and commodity currencies? >> we've got the bear in mind that the weaker oil price has been problematic for the oil producers. you have canada, you have norway, but also australia. not a big oil producer, but a big coal producer, often seen as a substitute. you know what i think is really interesting was particularly the aussie -- not necessarily aussie/dollar, it's the aussie/yen. the market is anticipating that the yen will carry on and, of course, this really, i think, sets up the possibility of a currency war in that region. clearly china is going to be happy. nor will korea and nor will aussie. so i think the aussie/yen is a very interesting cross to watch in 2015. >> while we're talking about oil and some of these commodity

currencies, just including the russian ruble and the brazil ya real, as well, which have been so depressed on the back of what's taking place in the price of oil. is it a trade there? are they going to continue to go south? >> it's very difficult to know with respect to the ruble. we've had some stabld over the past few sessions. i think everyone anticipates there will be recession in russia next year. we just don't know to what degree. it's very difficult to predict how putin will react. we did have putin -- his recommendations with the west, clearly the russian ruble will likely go up by quite a large margin. but right now, it's very difficult to secede that. so politics obviously one to watch and very difficult to predict in russia. >> another factor that has been weighing on the emerging market currencies is the stronger dollar. the greenback continues to hit new multi year highs. what is the trade going forward into 2015, especially as the fed

looks at a steady and patient rise in interest rates. >> again, really very interesting. the market consensus again this year, head intoog a new year, heading for anticipation of further dollar gains. now, i do think the dollar will go up, but the fed i think is in a very interesting position. first of all, if you look at the domestic data, inflation, we have cpi a week or so today. inflation data, likely to suggest very moderate inflation. then, of course, as you mentioned, the emerging market economies. we had that by-s report a week or two ago suggesting an awful lot of debt now, dollar denominated debt in emerging markets. as the dollar goes up, the risk goes up, there is more pain in some of those economies. now, against the back drop of a lot of global growth, brazil, russia, eurozone or japan, you know, the u.s. will not be immune to another downside risk to growth. so i do think that this will

filter through into the assessment. i think the fed is going to start hiking rates to the end of 2015. that means from our point of view, that once the dollar goes up, i think its pace could be moderated. >> stay with us for a second, jane. i just want to bring another element into the discussion. athens bracing now for the second round of a key presidential vote today. the prime minister's candidates only claimed 160 out of greece's 300 parliamentary deputies, therefore by sending the main stock index down by 13% on the day. some greek reports suggest it could claim 169 votes in today's second round. this would still fall short of the 180 required in the crucial final round on the 29th of december. in a further twist, the prime minister said he would be open to early elections in 2015 if parliament backs seema for the presidency. coming back to what you just were mentioning there with regard to euro/dollar trade, are

you in the camp that thinks that we're going to hit 115 in euro/dorm trade in 2015? >> it's not a central forecast, but it's out there for the next couple of years. greece has to be there. all very much as you said hinges on the second round of the presidential vote today, which could push greece out of the headlines. but then, of course, if the prime minister doesn't get the -- his favorite presidential candidate, we could have early elections and we could, of course, have the far left in power. and then that would really cause the possibility of a lot of strain once more for the eu, for the ecb, because it's so difficult to reconcile the policies of the far left with those of the troika. so greece certainly very interesting region to watch in the next couple of days. perhaps in the next couple of weeks, couple of months. >> jane, merry christmas.

>> merry christmas to you. >> and i'll see you in 2015. >> as we've been telling you, it has been a mega rally on wall street. the s&p 500 gaining more than 5.5% in the last four days. but data that we get today could change the story. november durable goods report due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. also house at 8:30, forecast calls for growth from 3%. november personal income and spending, i'll be watching this very closely. it's out at 8:30 a.m. just before 10 on a.m., we'll get the final report on consumer sentiment. that comes from drugstore chain wall greens. another important data, consumer sentiment and inflation, given the fact that we've seen that

lower gas price has resulted in consumer spending more feeling more confident on the economy. >> and if we get a strong gdp print, as well, that will be feds hiking rates next year, huh? >> it seems to be the likely case. looking at some of the other top stories today, north korea's internet service is back online after suffering an outage. the outage comes amid heightened tensions over the u.s. and north korea over the hacking role of sony pictures. north korea has denied involvement. too much of a coincidence. >> the time sg questionable. >> more important than not having the movie shown in theaters, the initial movie, more importantly is we now know what north korea can do with regard to hacking. i mean, we -- you know, and hacking and, you know, back to

the gray swan argument, hacking cyber security is right up there. >> obama called it cyber vandalism. >> yeah. and just the mayhem that it can cause, right? >> and it's only going to increase with the proliferation of technology, right? >> definitely. but now you might be looking at a scenario where countries need to test and see what can we really hack? what is our capacity of being able to hack very quickly. >> it's a scary thought, something we have to watch, for sure. >> but they say that anything is available for a price in new york city. now that includes performances of sony's "the interview." i can't believe this. but the three comedians, they got their hands on a copy of the script of the seth rogen and james franco film, which was which will pulled by the studio last week, and they'll be performing a stage reading at a small theater in manhattan on this saturday. still to come on the show, forget sugar cookies and food baskets. carl likely's ceo david

rubenstein is redefining the way corporate america is saying merry christmas. find out more after this break.

hi, everybody. welcome back. these are your headlines. not so fast say u.s. regulator.

time warner's merger with parent comcast is put on hold pending review. north korea is back online after nine-hour internet outage as the u.s. denies involvement. and u.s. investors are eyeing a data deluge today, including final gdp to see if the santa rally can continue. now, just glancing at some of the other things that we've been following, carl likely's co-ceo is saying it's feeling the beat of the festive season after investing in dr. dre's beats music firm, he was inspired to perform a rap to say merry christmas to investors. check this out. >> hello? is this thing on. dr. dre inspired me to write my own rap. >> let's hear it. ♪

♪ takes a lot of brains to do what we do ♪ ♪ looking for a way to make some dough for you ♪ ♪ energy, commodity, we do it all ♪ ♪ pick up the phone and give us a call ♪ ♪ mezzanine, private equity ♪ carlyle group is the place to be ♪ ♪ we're global, we're mobile, we're aim to go please ♪ ♪ lps, lps, server lps haven't done anything like this, really, since my bar mitzvah. >> my favorite line was it takes a lot of brains to do it for you, looking for some ways to make some money for you. amazing, getting innovative the way they're spreading the cheer. it's stuck in your head, louisa. >> definitely. >> i think they are planning a rap for us right now. >> to send to our employees here. why not?

let us do it. on that note, can you picture your boss doing that? how would you like it if your ceo wished you a merry christmas or happy holidays in the form ooh a wrap or a jingle? join the conversation here on "worldwide exchange." worldwide@cnbc.com. tweet us, @cnbcwex. we should point out carlisle did pay backside 500 million in 2013 to get a minority stake in beat electronics. apple came in, bought beats for i believe over $3 billion. so it was a lucrative investment for carlisle. >> we went from headphones that were this side and then they had to be that side and now they're back to this size again. >> and they'll probably go back again. still to come on the show, we dial into the top telecom picks for 2015. m&a could be a key driver in the seconder. find out more. xkç

let's talk m&a. the s.e.c. has paused its review of the the merger of comcast and time warner cable citing delays in getting ns toumts. the s.e.c. is examining the deal to see whether it's in the public interest. time warner cable withheld more than 7,000 documents due to an

inappropriate claim of attorney-client privilege. comcast is the parent company of cnbc. take a look at how sharts are responding today. we're looking at comcast shares up about 0.5% in frankfurt. time warner cable down about 0.2% in today's trade. our next guest says the telecom and media sector could jurchd underperform with the potential entry of comcast. let's discuss more on what that means, broader implications in those two sectors with daniel ives. thank you for joining us this morning, daniel. we know m&a has been a central theme so far this year. in fact, 96 deals worth thon more than $5 billion have been completed over the past 12 months. before we get into your sector pick, do you think this trend will continue in 2015? >> oh, yeah. i think you'll see a surge in m&a. and i think part of it is the bipolar spending environment. if you look at i.t. spending growing 2%, 3%, rather large

caps lower, mature companies like the oracles, the saps, the encs of the world. they're finding a tougher time. i think m&a will be a bigger theme in 2015, especially as the piles of cash are becoming front and center for investors. it's been an overhang in a lot of these names. tech is pretty good for 2004, 2015 is going to be a surge in this that you'll see. >> and what do you think the state will be of the time warner/comcast deal will be? >> i ultimately think that it's going to be a positive outcome. like the m&a that you've seen over the past year, i think the bark is worse than the bite in terms of the regular laytory. when investors want to see consolidation across the board, and that has been a theme that i think investors are buying into. whether it's semis, software,

traditional media. >> daniel, hi. it's louisa. thanks for getting up early to talk to us. we appreciate it. >> sure. >> i'm just curious, when looking at the tech sector, and when looking at telcos,/mobile, whatever you want to call it, that type of space, there's so many different ways to invest. where should i go? do i pick the microsofts, the samsungs, or am i picking more of the service providers? how do you play it? >> on the large cap, i really do believe microsoft is going to be the horse to bet on as nadella is focused on cloud and on mobile. start to go make some transaction with windows 10 which will come out late next year. and i think that's going to be a catalyst for microsoft. but i think you look at the next generation in spending in terms of cloud, in terms of cyber security, in terms of big data, in terms of next gen mobile and you look for those plays, like a

splunk on big data, on cyber security and on mobile. there's a number of plays that sort of play into that trend. so i think you look at some of the high growth/high data names, but then you look at some of the large caps that should outperform, i think microsoft has separated themselves from the ibms, the hps, the ciscos in terms of growthnadella's decisi is starting to play out. i think '15 will be another inflexion point year for microsoft as they see a renaissance of growth. >> and daniel, what do i do with a company like apple where it's not -- it's very, very close to all-time highs. do i sell it now? do i continue to believe that apple is going to move north? >> yeah. i think that still moves north. in terms of the trends that they play into on mobile, on the iphone 6 products, and then wearables, you look at apple play in 2015, that's really a

category changer. and i think investors are still going to buy into that theme, but there's a big ocean for more than one ship, right? so i think it's not just apple. i think you'll start seeing microsoft gains in more share, sam subject has improved there. you're going to see google and a lot of these others going after. it's about mindshare with the consumer. apple continues to be far ahead. you have a lot of other guys following as they're going after the budget dollars. >> daniel, lovely seeing you. thank you very much. daniel identifies joining us from sbr capital markets. happy holidays. >> louisa, we should point out the s&p tech sector up 19% year-to-date. vastly outperforming the markets up about 12%. at one point, when does tech start to look expensive? especially when you have apple trading close to its record highs. facebook hitting a new high yesterday. $81.99. we're seeing a lot of big moves in tech. it's been a fast trading --

>> and window dressing. u.s. futures, let's take a look. it was another big day on wall street. will the dow break 18,000 today? we're going to discuss that with our next guest. futures point to go a higher move by around 24 points to the dow jones.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> and i'm louisa bojesen. here are your headlines around

the world. >> u.s. futures pointing higher after the s&p 500 hit its 50th record high of the year. investors turn their focus now to a data deluge. energy stocks among the best performers globally as oil edges higher wti edging close to $65 per barrel. and m&a news, u.s. regulators hit the pause button between time warner cable and comcast, the parent of cnbc. and domestic internet service restored in north korea following a nine-hour outage. u.s. denying any involvement in cyber actions against pyongyang. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> another big market day for wall street. if you're just joining in, thank you for joining us. futures pointing to a higher open yesterday despite that weak

existing u.s. home sales. stocks did close at a record high. the s&p 500 posting its 50th new closing high. but the direction of the market could, perhaps, change with today's data deluge. we have u.s. involve durable good orders. final third quarter gdp home prices and inflation data. we also have to keep an eye on nat gas. warm weather has boosted natural gas inventory levels and that's been pushing prices down. in fact, yesterday, b nasdaq prices hit a two-year low. so still commodities playing a big role in market direction. let's take a look at european markets. a mixed day of trade. uk gdp did come in weaker than expected. we are looking at the ftse 100, uk markets posting a gain of around 14 points. the big jvrm underperformer has been germany. the xetra dax down about 3 points in today's trade. cac 40 up 17 points. and the ftse mib, the italian markets, focused there on mateo and his labor market reforms up

about 96 points in today's trade. commodities continue to be a focal point for investors. in fact, yesterday, crude settling at session lows. today we're seeing a bit of bargain hunting, wti crude trading just below $56 a barrel. but up about 1% in today's trade. whereas brent crude is$60.60. are we trading in commodities? that continues to be the big question. louisa. >> seema, listen, we've been talking about greece and we're just had news here on our wires that the greek parliament, they failed to reach a majority to elect the president during this second round vote. remember, there are three rounds. the final tally, though, still to come. but from what we understand, they failed to reach a majority to elect the president during the second round vote. so that means that it's going to get even more interesting, basically. you have the current prime

minister having supported the presidential candidate that he would like to see in place. essentially, some were saying that the reason he did this was to make sure that lawmakers know he was on their side before he pushes through with reforms and restructuring, including renegotiation of another package of aid which could be set to come, as well. so it's very interesting and important because more power -- >> what does that mean for greece and -- >> and the eurozone. >> and the eurozone. that has been the big concern. as our last guest was just telling us, he says that political uncertainty will be the dominant theme when trading greece going forward. >> but i think it's the incorrect way of looking at it. if greece gains more power, it doesn't mean they're looking like that. what it means is they want debt forgiveness. so it's been debt forgiveness and with regard to re structusig greece's debt, that's why it's important. >> it's an ongoing story. >> the last round is the 29th of

december, the last vote. u.s. markets, they've been on a tear ever since the federal reserve said last week that it would exercise patience with future rate hikes. fed chair janet yellen stressed the decision would be larmgly interpretive. traders say they interpreted the change to mean no action for at least six months. we spoke to francesco martrelli and peter from goldman sachs. we asked them about when they think the fed will pull the trigger. >> the market has basically repriced that turning point much lower in light of the declining oil prices. and we think there's still an opportunity to see these rates eventually go up. and this is the year preparation ahead of that first hike when the fed try toes absorb liquidity and see how the interest rate market responds to fluctuations and excess liquidity. so that is going to be an interesting time. >> we've had a lot of fed governors come out over recent

days and try to give -- to the greenback and to late expectations. is the market listening? if so, who is it listening to at the moment? >> i think the market is going from theme to theme. another theme is, i think, as we discussed earlier, the ecb. so there's an idea out that the baton and this qe relay is now past the ecb and they have to do something with it. and the government bond discussion. and i think to the extent that this acts to refrain the domestic economy, get some growth starting and inflation expectations higher, the fed can only be happy because having the eurozone in the doldrums is ultimately also bad for the united states. so if this experiment works, the ecb is older and gets things going, i think the fed will have less of an issue in steering rates up. consider there's been a spillover from the german market

in particular two years treasury. u.s. treasuries are trading at very low level of yields. i think partly because of what's happening here in europe. >> you like a bit of excitement. i mean, you've got long u.s. high yields credit risk in here. but i don't see a long u.s. equity call. why is that, peter? >> because we think that the fundamentals from here are not that exciting to the u.s. markets. we're looking at about 5% profit growth next year. that's below consensus. and unlike europe, which also has the low profit growth, there is little room, i think, for margin expansion and little room for valuation expansion. market is trading at a much higher multiple. and we think in the light of eventually rates rising next year, that multiple will probably come down a little bit. so we're looking at pretty flat markets as the quarter next year. >> that's very interesting and i think i broadly go along with that because the u.s. stock market looks to a case for the kind of growth that we're seeing

and have seen in the past. but i think that is going to be very supportive of the bond market because you're not going to see the big asset allocation shift occur. people are just too sxishus of stocks, which then begs the question, why is it every single day u.s. stock market goes up-and-up and up snuft just a little bit, but up-and-up and up. it doesn't seem to be -- to be taking a message that it's potentially getting sloppy. >> well, i think it's partly because of the other factors that we've been talking about. rates are so low. but in the case of the u.s., it's combined with growth which is actually reasonably good. and, therefore, there's a reasonable degree of confidence that you can see enough activity to generate long-term profit growth and people are prepared to pay for that. i think in other markets, they also have very low rates, so you don't have the economic growth and, therefore, the confidence to give a higher risk premium a lower valuation. >> i wonder if there's something

of a dollar trap developing for next year. we've seen people pile into dollar, dollar assets, including the stock market, especially the bond market. at what stage does the u.s. wake up and look at the rest of the global economy is playing the game of competitive valuations? >> i think that's a good point in the sense that i think there's some tolerance, particularly at treasury for seeing the yen and the euro come down. >> to the extent that it's become a neighbor exercise, where the only thing the economy has managed to do is, of course, the currency down and not dow the reforms and not take advantage of this window of opportunity, then you think the u.s. will call the bluff. >> what is your read on japan? yes or no? >> the economy or the markets? >> the economy, market,

whatever, just japan, the question. >> i was very positive in japan. it's stalled a bit on the oil price. i think you've got fundamental improvement. profits have pretty much doubled over the last few years. roe is finally rising. margins are rising. and i think, really, a relatively low multiple, regularively low prices works. so overall attractive in the next few markets. >> that sounds like i'm making the right call and my investment into the japanese warrants market. i think that's going to be one of the big picks for next year. >> yeah. to update you again with what's taking place here in greece over the last couple of hours this

morning, the greek parliament failing to reach a majority to elect a president in the second round of this three-belonged vote. final tally still to come. the greek presidential candidate securing votes in the second round of the vote. and the greek parliament speaker confirming the government receive these 638 votes. so 131 dpen and one absence. wee seen the greek market paring earlier losses on the back of these results. and it could be because that if we think the opposite party is going to be gaining more power, then it essentially means there might be some level of debt forgiveness towards greece. i'm just speculating at this point. >> if the parliament fails to perform that, it could be failed out of 2015.

stocks have athens have come off their lowes and are trading down on the day. let's get market reaction. how closely are you watching the greek election and how is that at all changing your trade on europe? >> sure. i think it's adding volatility to long trade. it is almost written i would say that it has left the farm which is in a sense waiting to arrive. this is adding to some volatility in the market. i am still convinced that if you have an inflation print at zero and negative, you can't just sit back and not do anything. >> greece kind of unraveled europe just a couple of months ago. could i be fairful that something like this might happen again, that there might be

contagion, we might be looking at messiness taking place in some of the periphery debt, for example? >> let's compare this to what happened last time. last time, being held by banks, now in the official sector. we had a haircut already. greece is still 2% of gdp. whether the new government coming in is going to ask for an exit from the euro. but i don't think it's such a big in the overall scheme, given what has happened last time. >> let's focus back to the u.s. the s&p 500 and the dow both closing at record highs. we get a lot of data out today, specifically u.s. gdp. if that comes in higher than expected, does that show us that the u.s. economy is, in fact, strong enough to insecure a rate hike in 2015? >> sure. what janet yellen said, look at the data.

over a considerable period of time, what we got was patience in the end. my view is that lower energy prices, very positive. we saw that mentioned by janet yellen in her press conference, sure. >> considerable time is still in there, though. they pushed it down a bit. >> sure. my view is inflation is falling. second half it might get into september. but as it's going towards one data, the world consumer a bill barrels of oil per year. now it's priced at $60. that is something we have to look at. >> and, of course, if oil prices continue to push inflation down, does that mean the fed will be more dovish next year? we should point out the

competition of the fed is changing next year. charles plosser as well as stanley fischer might not be on the committee. >> sure. my view is they have going to be dovish. i know lessons from 1994 and 2004, they went easily and then you had a housing double. so i think they're going to -- they don't want to see run away inflation and they don't want to see the market directioning and for them to come back and do another round of qe. they will wait for the right hike. >> thank you so much for being with us today. we'll see you in 2015. >> looking at some of the other top stories today, north korea's internet service is back online after suffering an outage yesterday.

the obama administration has promised a quote/unquote proportionate responsibility for the attack. although north korea has continued involvement. it's touch a swins dense that this could happen, right? >> who knows. but, of course, timing is questionable. coming up on cnbc, we're going to turn back to m&a. the countdown clock is on for one of the biggest mergers of the year that has been put on hold. we'll get you details, coming up next.

the s.e.c. has paused its review of the proposed $45 billion merger of comcast and time warner cable, citing delays in getting necessary documents. the s.e.c. is examining the deal to see whether it's in the public interest. the agency learned this month time warner cable withheld more than 7,000 documents due to an inappropriate claim of attorney clooim client privilege. it was later learned about 41,000 files were missing due to an error. comcast is up just about 0.5% in frankfurt. family dollar shareholders, they're scheduled to vote today on the proposed takeover offer

by dollar tree. the company is expected to adjourn the meeting, delaying the vote for the second time. top shareholder advisory firm asf has urged shareholders that they propose the deal .is instead original fof a postponement. >> we'll see you just on the other side after the break.

another record day on wall street. could we see dow 18,000 today? joining me now from boston, brad mcmillan, from commonwealth financial network. brad, what do you think? will market head higher? we get a lot of data out today. november durable good orders, home prices, inflation, what are you watching? >> i'm watching right now, i think home prices are okay. i think gdp is going to be even bigger. but i think the key story here is we have an ongoing accelerating recovery. we at commonwealth i think do expect markets to go higher in the short-term. and the s&p 500 settling at a record high for the 50th time this year. if the price of oil continues to drop, could that derail this market rally? >> if you actually look at the

numbers, there is a slight negative effect from i'll price drop. you see that in reduced business investment and potentially reduced employment. but the cost of effects outweigh that by about six to one. this is a huge benefit not just for the u.s., but for the woerth as a whole. i think that's going to accelerate the economic activity. >> the feds, we don't want to fight the feds. you think rates are going to head higher this year, i'm assuming. do we reposition, just ride with it? >> i think you need to be a little defensive in your fixed income allocation. move the duration down, more towards credit. there may be some opportunities in high yield right now, some of our analysts here are working on that. but i think as the market as a whole goes, if you look at mcgrowth, horribly they're procharacteristical.

>> brad, thank you so much for being with us, brad mcmillan, joining us from the commonwealth financial network. that is it for today's show. >> that's it. >> we'll see you tomorrow. >> thank you for joining us. >> happy almost christmas. z xxxx

. forget the toy. today he's carrying economic data on his sleigh. and the good boys, girls and bulls on wall street hope that will be enough to push the dow above 18,000. north korea is back online. breaking overnight, the country's internet goes dark in a complete outage for hours. speculation ranges from technical glitch toes a hacking attack. holiday travel trouble, winter weather threatening to delay millions of americans on the roads and in the sky.

at this point, it's mostly just rain and cheaper natural gas. it's tuesday, december 23rd, and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. sony scanseled this week's scheduled release of the movie "the interview." we'll have that four in just a bit. but first, here are the big stories on our plates. we have november durable goods coming at 8:30 eastern time. also worth watching, consumer sentiment, personal income and spending and the richmond fed survey. the russian government and is central bank putt-putting pressu o