i am not. so, mandy -- merry christmas. as my little cousin tim used to say, god bless us every one. >> that's really nice. thanks, little tim. thank you for watching "street signs," happy. as we say in australia. happy christmas. stay safe, everybody. and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. reveal the headline now, bill? 18,000 on the dow jones industrial average. >> we did it. we have crossed and took seven months to do -- six or seven months from 17,000 to 18,000. so there we have. first time ever breaking that milestone and now we just wait to see if we can close above that for the first time ever. remember, any positive close for the dow or s&p will be a new record. >> it's not getting the fan fare today but the s&p 500 today

trading at 2785. >> when has a new record for the dow or s&p gotten any fan fare? >> not lately. we were talking about this this morning. a producer who's been here through the ups and downs in the last decade used to be the case to hear cheers and applause punching but the benchmarks. this morning you weren't be hearing much punching through 18,000 on the dow. >> more evidence as we have said for a while now. this is still the most unloved bull market we have seen in modern times with the dow up 97 points off the highs. s&p's up 6 and enough for a record high. technology, certain sectors, bio tech hit hard today and as you heard from the gang on "street signs," some of the pharmaceuticals lower and nasdaq is down in today's rally. >> yeah. importantly. let's get right to it with the closing bell exchange. >> john manly.

peter anderson. susan fulton. she made it. >> i am here. >> yeah. we weren't worried about you but the technicals in place as you know. rick santelli joins us from chicago. rick, i hate to pick on you. i'm not but you have been asked about it all day and here we are 5% gdp in the third quarter. unemployment at 5.8%. and fed funds rate still at zero. i got to get your first blush or maybe it's your tenth take on it by this time of day through all of this here. >> well, even, you know, if we look at the third quarter final at 5% of realized that if you average out and assume a 2.5% to 3% fourth quarter we are still under 3%. for the year. and it's like a football game, bill. you can have a good or bad quarter and about who wins the game and there's definitely improvement there. but when you think of the idea and so many of our guests say it all the time. why would the fed want to raise

rates? you know, inflation pressures aren't there. why would they do anything? misappropriating capital. we are creating bubbles for future agony and worry. it's just a no-brainer that zero is too low. that doesn't mean we have to go from zero to 4%. maybe a couple of quarter-point tightenings to give the fed some room should deterioration in europe or 2015 hold obstacles we can't see in the crystal ball. no matter how much you believe we're not going to be able to sustain the type of gdp we saw in the third quarter, acknowledging the unemployment rate doesn't reflect the true picture of the labor market, having said all that, zero interest rate policy is too low and why there's not as much jubilation on the new york stock exchange. people don't here always saying, gee, the fed must know something we don't know. meaning they don't have confidence in the improvement that we have seen. even if it doesn't benchmark

against a big improvement. >> suzanne? >> what the fed knows is that europe is paying no interest at all. so the dollars from europe or the money from europe is going into u.s. treasuries and if u.s. treasuries are paying 2.2%, this's still a full percentage point or more above what they're going to get in europe. why should the fed raise rates? >> susan -- wait a minute. >> they shouldn't get it. >> look at the two-year for a minute. i don't know why we're focusing on that when the 2-year in the highest of three years, rick. pricing in actually the fed moving on that front. that's what's interesting about equities rallying here and seems to be reflective of them expecting this tightening. >> david kelly, what do you think about that? yeah, we have especially after this morning's 5% print and saw a continuation of this move higher in yields on the treasury curve here. >> yeah. the most important number is .7%

of real increase in consumer spending in november. this means the fourth quarter over 4% of real growth we estimate and there's momentum continuing the economy. i believe zero interest rate policy is completely inappropriate. the fed has to move rapidly to get back to normal waiting so long. >> what is normal? normal is what you remember. it's not history. >> well, no. normal is positive real rats. normal is a situation in which somebody can make money by saving opposed to investing in risky assets. the markets are distorted and the fed trying to move back to what's been historically normal i think it is creating bubbles. >> john, we are at 18,000 on the douchlt all-time highs. we were just talking about this. does it get any better? you're just saying this is just another number. you know? this is not necessarily a milestone that we need to celebrate here. right? >> like me turning 60.

one day older but i felt a lot older. you have to mark these things. i think things are fine and what's got us here is still here. they'll raise rates. i think they know they can't get it exactly right and rather be late than early and i tend to agree with that and not tightening but reflecting the fact of the economy to stand higher interest rates and stimulative and still good. earnings are still going up and all i hear on the other side is up too much. that's a terrible reason to sell stocks. >> peter, i want your take on something of david stepper thte ask how much it's factoring in psychology. are people thinking to themselves, well, i got to dance in the market while the music's playing and maybe we see repatriation and pushls the market up more and more regardless of how it plays out. do you think, peter, people are starting to think about this market just charging higher, regardless of the data coming at us? >> absolutely. i mean, i think there is some

very, very positive tailwinds. we have the low oil prices. you have got low interest rates and now what you will see next in january is tremendous consumer participation through this holiday season. we have to wait until later january to see that. but i do think that this is very positive and there are people if there are anybody left on the sidelines it's almost a little like playing the game of musical chairs in the sense that everybody wants to be in this game. right? but they don't want to be left out. and i think that's what might be holding some people back now. but it's certainly very, very positive. i can't think of a better scenario right now heading into next year. everything looks quite positive and i think it's fantastic that now most of us are arguing about the fed should be raising rates. if you remember, kelly, just about six months ago we started worrying that the fed might be raising rates too soon. >> right. >> now look what we're arguing about. more of when is the fed going to kick in? all positive for the market if

you have the patience to stay in it for a longer period of time. >> it is becoming more glaring. for sure. hang on, folks. we have breaking news on sony, sent it over to julia boorstin for that. >> that's right. a big about face of sony with a limited release for "the interview" on thursday. so far, three theaters announced to show it. we expect more to come. this is a big reversal after the studio canceled the christmas day release of the controversial film when threats prompted the five largest theater chains to pull it from the screens. the sony ceo saying we have never given up on releasing "the interview" and excited it will be in a number of thee materials christmas day and continuing efforts to secure more platforms and more theaters so that this movie reaches the largest possible audience. the response to president obama's saying it was, quote, a mistake for sony to cancel the film's release and in the wake of demand from movie goers and independent owners.

one of those, texas-based alamo draft house selling tickets at some of the locations and owns 19 theaters and website even briefly down earlier presumably because of a surge of traffic. now, the 80% of u.s. theaters owned by the top 5 chains have not yet made announcement of reversing the plans on thursday. now we're also waiting fulls of the digital distribution plans. kelly, overrule to you. >> thank you. should we ask our group here before we go, will anybody trying to watch it or stream it? >> i can do it in texas. >> suzanne, you are not going? >> no. >> why? probably not your demographic anyway with all due respect. >> also in poor taste. you don't assassinate someone who's still alive. >> you know why they ask. they're searched about security issues not whether you would like to see it from an artistic standpoint. right? anybody else? anybody willing to step up? >> i'll go see it. >> peter? >> i want to see it.

>> i want the know -- >> too busy shopping busy. >> rick, you will see it? >> yes. definitely. i'm going to go see it. i like comedies and i think in this instance in particular i think it's good americans go out and show we can do just about anything we want. north korea can't walk and chew gum. >> movie attendance at political theater and statement. i love that. let's look ahead to -- i think we have a couple of minutes left. 2015, david kelly, do things get better or as good as it gets right now? >> i think the economy will continue to grow. i think the economy's going to do well but you have got to look at valuations of equity market. if rates move up, gains over a few years are going to be slower and people need to know that. i think this is a good year to think about it. >> why? >> because there's -- we're very high margins and we're now going above normal pe ratios or

average and people need to look around the world. the u.s. is leading a charge but take a look at europe, emerging market and places which have got more room to grow. i love the fact that things are looking really good here right now and what you want to do is get into something not looking so great that will look good. >> even with the strong dollar, david? >> yes. because, well, the question is not the strong dollar but whether it strengthens more. i don't think it is undervalued for the long run and five years from now i wouldn't be surprised to see it at roughly the same place and i think that over that period of time european earnings grown more, emerging markets and make money over five years in those equity markets. >> john manley, you have the most zen member of our panel today. stay the course or make any changes for 2015? >> we are buying europe and emerging markets there. i don't see why the market can't go up here in the u.s.? things get crazy and the market

is not pulling money in yet. it's been pushled insofar and not pulling it in. almost always pulls it in towards the end. >> echoing david tepper's xhentds. rick? >> yes. david's an economist here. there's inside baseball in the trading floor where they're looking at the savings rate adjustments, fueling this big consumption jump in the third quarter. >> yes. >> and many think that it isn't really a reality. any thoughts? have you been reading those comments? >> yeah. no, i think it is reality. when's happened is the government underestimating medical spending all yearlong. i think they're now getting to reality here. so i think this is genuine. consumers are doing more spending here. i think that will continue to 2015. >> thank you. >> that shift on health care is an important theme. thank you, everybody. >> merry christmas. >> happy 18,000. the dow is up 95 points and 18,055 the current level. the s&p at a record territory.

nasdaq remains the laggard today. >> talking about why in a few minutes. coming up with the dow poised to close above 18,000 first time ever, what are investors doing? buy? sell? hanging on? let us know what you're up to now. your chance to voice your opinion about the stock market. go to cnbc.com/vote. our live poll is opening up right now. results and professionals chiming in what maybe you should be doing with your money m cog up when kelly and i come back. location. location.

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a historic day for wall street with the dow above 18,000 for the first time ever. and you can see this is what we call our heat map. this is an itemization of all 30 stocks in the dow industrial average. the minus signs are generally in the pharmaceutical arena. health care and so forth. j & j, merck, pfizer. 3m, as well. >> beaten down -- well, i

shouldn't say beaten down. exxon and chevron. oil prices are climbing today. our jackie deangelis is keeping an eye on how oil is trading. >> good afternoon, guys. a lot of traders saying that the market leading the energy complex higher today. we did see wti up $1.86 settling at $57.12. brent crude around $62 and traders saying you have to take a step back here. this is a pause right now. from probably steeper selling pressure that will come back in the new year. they're taking a cautious tone to this momentum right now because they still say it's a supply/demand story and one of our go-to guys pulled stats. eia forecasting demand to increase by 900,000 barrels a next year. but you have got iraqi supply, libyan supply and u.s. supply still steadily increasing. supply going up and first quarter, second quarter probably still seeing an imbalance and

that probably will add some pressure to these prices. don't get too excited about the lift just yet and for you oil geeks, you both are -- we dropped another penny. >> all right. we are following every tick. thank you very much. jackie deangelis. oil one factor in the struggling russian economy. earlier today, russia prime minister warning of a deep recession and standard & poor's put them on credit watch negative. >> joining us now from what it may mean for the u.s. and markets, eamon javers and a visiting fellow at the peterson institute, as well. gentlemen, welcome. eamon, news on that, as well. announced the creation of this eur-asian economic union. comes inauspicious time, i guess. >> reporter: that's right. one of the ironies is the white

house is criticized over a couple of months here from folks saying that the sanctions we put on russia haven't had any impact and now you see washington start to do is think about the possibility of catastrophic success here with those sanctions. that is the goal of sanctions is to get putin to change his behavior vis-a-vis the crew ukraine and every everywhere else but will he do that or radicalize him? do you get the outcome that you were looking for putting the sanctions in in the first place and that's a thing to think about here in washington. >> douglas, what about investors? how should they think about the risks as russia enters perhaps a depression? what are the risks to the rest of the global financial system and economy? >> well, the risks to russia are different than the risks to the global financial system.

those that draw analogy to the crisis have it wrong. you know, russia right now is well telegraphed in terms of what the risks are. the interlinkages of russia and the financial sector side to the u.s. economy, the u.s. financial system are a lot different than they were 15 years ago. i don't think they're that dramatic. i think they're very well plotted out. there's obviously a lot more exposure on the energy side, directly with russia and germany and europe than there is with the u.s. and global investors looking at russia. i think that is a standan alone per se and not as a tip of the systemic russia leads to contagion crisis. i don't think that's case in 2014 or 2015. >> doug, i tell my kids it's not what happens to you in life but it's how you respond to what happens to you. is there anything putin can do to try to mite gaigate things r now? >> he has.

look at the sharp drop of the ruble last week and today, there's reasons why the case of ruble hitting 80 last week and 55-ish today, that's a big difference and doesn't mean over several months it's not weakened considerably. it means that there have been steps taken by the authorities, putden himself, by the central bank which have all led to a more stable environment for the currency and linked to not only sanctions but to the oil price. but is the russian government sitting back and sort of just doing nothing? clearly not. we know it and a lot of things going on behind the scenes and clearly they're responding. >> gentlemen, thank you. moving on. we have breaking news that we have been covering, as well. thank you for joining us today. keeping a close eye on markets here. dow up 18,000 level for, yes, the first time. s&p meanwhile with a strong session, as well. nasdaq still in negative territory and keeping an eye on those reasons why. we have much more ahead on dow 18,000.

pros telling you what you should be doing with your money and we want to know if you're buying, selling or holding right now. you can go to cnbc.com/vote. live poll and advice of the pros when we come right back.

welcome back. they're the weakest performers of tn dow today, including j & j, pfizer and merck and back to the reason the nasdaq is lagging. strong names on the upper left corner, chevron, exxon as energy and oil prices rebound a little bit today. >> bertha coombs is covering the action. where technology, biotech, left out of the dow 18,000 party. what is going on? >> biotech is the whipping child for the last couple of days. part of it is a fallout from the express scripts salvo on drug pricing. also a bit of selling of your winners and what traders are saying. look at the index. it is the best performer by far. still up 45% even with today's pullback. the nasdaq biotechs have been particularly strong, as well.

that's really where you're seeing the source of pain today. they're getting hit hard. the ibb, etf is trading at 200% of normal daily volume compared to two thirds of a percent for the overall market. meantime, it's express scripts not incidentally today the best performer in the nasdaq 100 in terms of gains but it's being offset by big losses and those players today, last ones this morning with a downgrade after of the hep c drug didn't work quite as well on its own and seeing the pressure. g ilead the real sort of ground zero for all of this after express scripts said it would not pay for the drugs and some of the other gainers today with the strong numbers on the economy, the strong numbers 0 consumer names here at the nasdaq. so, unfortunately, they just can't seem to outweigh the downward draft from biotechs.

back to you. >> thank you. the nasdaq still down about 13 points and the other index in the green and record territory. how is main street playing the milestone on the dow? are you buying, selling or holding? go to cnbc.com/vote right now to let us know. >> with us with more on the move and may be lying ahead, jeff saad and brian reynolds. good to see you both. welcome back. jeff, you'd been calling for dow 18,000 for a while but now that we're here, is that just a mile marker in a marathon or was that the finish line for you for a while? >> i think it is a mile marker in a marathon just like 11,000, 12,000, 13,000. the public tends to focus on thousands. 10,000 which is when the hats came out on the floor where you're standing or sitting right now and the next number is 20,000. if 18,000 was a big deal, we'd be wearing hats right now.

>> oh, well, just wait. >> seeing a couple of them around here. brian reynolds, so this snapback, tell us what you think of the speed and the magnitude and if you agree with david teper's comments to see it go further faster next year. >> we are in the middle of a credit boom. multi-year and likely to go into at least 2017 or '18 and likely take the s&p well over 3,000. we keep having these scary pullbacks. feels like the world will end and i was on with you last year in the depths of that pullback and i said, you know, once it runs its course, we'll be at a new high within a few weeks. >> yep. >> it was wrong because only a week later that we are at the new highs. but we're being driven higher by these buybacks and mergers that are being fueled by the credit market and most equity investors don't like stocks and whether there's trouble, they sell them and get the panicky selloffs and looking at the trend, companies are buying their stock back and

that's going to continue for a few more years. >> brian, i keep hearing from bulls that this is -- this rally, this bull market is all about earnings. that's why it's not about the fed policy. it's not about the buybacks but about the strength and the continuing growth of earnings. you seem to disagree with that. >> well, earnings have been okay. relatives have been worst than earnings by the pe ratios exp d expanding and rising faster than the earnings with the buybacks. when you look at who's been buying stocks and selling them, look at the major participants in the stock market. most investors haven't done anything. you see money in etfs, some foreign buying from sovereign wealth funds and you have seen hedge funds and pensions as major sellers of stocks and net that out, companies buying their stocks an enthe rest of investors have been flat for a five years aenl i think that trend will accelerate and get more buybacks and more mergers next year. >> jeff, that's why same question to you, if that's all

happening and you, again, go back to the remarks of david tepper and the idea of multiple expansion to drive the market to where do you think by the end of next year? >> if earnings continue to grow better than 6% like they have on average since 1989 and you compound that out on this year's estimates, you come up with $183.36 in 2020. what kind of multiple on that, 15 1/2 multiple, 2850 on the s&p in 2020. i agree the buybacks and the m & a business fueled this thing and earnings fueled it. i take exception with the individual investor, though. we have over 4 million individual investor accounts here at raymond james and buying dividend-paying stocks. >> and i'm looking at the -- >> i agree. they've been going in into etfs especially. hedge funds and pensions have been sellers. net that out -- >> i agree with this.

>> all right. we are going to close the poll here in a minute. are you going to buy, sell or hold in the new year and half said buy. 38% to sell. 12% hanging on. >> jeff, you like the results? >> do i like what? >> those results? only 50% of people or as many of 50% in our unscientific survey saying they're going to buy the stock market. what do you think about that? >> before it's over with and i have seen a few secular bull markets before, i think the public will be all in as they always have. >> that's what brian is suggesting, as well. thank you. >> merry christmas. >> merry christmas. >> we have to keep running that poll now to see how the numbers inch higher. >> we are coming off a high here. keep an eye on that. we have 30 minutes to go. the dow's still above 18,000 obviously. but we got 35-point cushion right now. >> right. we need that if we want to close above 18,000 for the first time.

>> art cashin wore a hat about it, too, by the way. coming up, dominic chu highlighting the dow's road to 18,000 and whether or not 19,000 could be just around the bend. stubd. that plus the 18,000 hat! it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review.

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just joining us, record territory for the dow and the s&p. any positive close would do that but we're keeping a close eye on dow 18,000. first time above that milestone in history. some people are wearing hats about that. >> it's hard to believe the dow started the year in the 16,000 neighborhood. dominic chu, how did we get to 18k? >> 25 years ago here on the 25th anniversary, the dow like 2750 back then. take a look at this. we go back to 2007 here in the little map of the dow milestones. july 19th, hitting 14,000. you have to go forward about six years before you finally get from 14,000 to 15,000. may 7th, 2013. looking at 2007 to 2013, that's how long it took to get that thousand points and since then to 15,000 to 16,000, 6, 7 months and then from 16,000 to 17,000, again, just about 6, 7 months and then from 17 to 18, if we

close above this level, which we may today, it will be another about 6 or so months since it happened. a quick progression from what happened at 14,000 to 18,000. look at what happened between 17,000 and 18,000, in summer, july 3rd, a slew of dow performers doing well and home depot is the star performer. up 26% just since what happened in july. united health group up 23%. nike and visa up about 22%. these guys really helped power some of the gainless for when's happening with the dow and looking at that, remember, 2750 back 25 years ago was the dow. if you go 550% return of right now, take a look. over past 25 years, if you can somehow keep that, i mean, no one's thinking that. ludicrous number on the dow like 118,000 if you go about 556% from today and who knows what's

going to happen? but for right now, what you do know is that these gains right now have been impressive for what's happened with the dow and next hour, guys, we'll take a look at what the biggest point gainers between dow 17,000 and dow 18,000. back over to you guys. >> dom, thanks very much. 118,000 dow, cashin would have to get a bigger hat. >> a bigger head. >> what do trader vs to say about this piece of history made today here? he asked. we got art cashin and terry donald. i had to laugh because jeff just said if this is a big deal at 18,000 we would be wearing hats. you were within my line of sight. >> i heard my good friend and thinking of putting it away and just too big an opportunity. >> put it in perspective. is it a big deal or just another marker? >> it is just another marketer on the way. when you do the thousand-point increments, a little celebration

is allowed. jeff is right. it's not 30 or 40 or 50 people. about five lunatics and everybody else is respectful. >> terry, what about you? a big day for you guys? >> i agree with art it's a milestone and dow moving up to better levels for the public and for everyone else so it's a great day always when you see something -- >> is it different the time, though? since you have been through the cycles before, does this one feel different or do people always have this skepticism until the very, very end? >> feels different from the context of the last description of how fast an accelerated move of july to here and then 20 years from here ago to here. those relationships make it seem like it's just another milestone and we may see that milestone more often than let's say when we were gearing up for dow 10,000 or some of the earlier milestones in the last 25 years. >> any soft spots to keep an eye

on as we hit this milestone? >> well -- >> any signs of wear and tear? >> a little bit of a problem. nonconfirmation in the nasdaq and grudging confirmation of the s&p. not flying as well. but as i think your former guest said, a lot of these buybacks are a reason why you can move in increments of almost 1,000 rapid time. i mean, the joke on the floor is apple is taking itself private in a stealth fashion. >> you can say that about any of the major companies who are on the multi-billion dollar buyback programs. >> absolutely. and it's a bit of a problem. that's why market observers have split into two groups. people who watch the macro can't believe the dollar is where it is because the general figures don't follow but those following earnings, i mean, the revenues of ibm lower than five years ago but because of the buybacks that they're doing, their earnings are up and giving a decent

performance. >> terry, you are the trader. we get the 5% pullbacks and come back again. buy the dippers as art calls them come back to the market. it happened again this month. now what? what are you doing here? >> i'm a believer of cash under the belt right now. a sell mode between now and the end of the year because i think the new year always presents new difficulties in horizons not considering the xexuberance. there could be pressure of wage increasings, problems if the dollar continues to rise to new levels and change problems for us from a comparative point of view and so towards the end of the year exception with the strong rallies like this, i prescribe to go into cash and see what happens in the first few months of the next year and be ready for it. >> all right, gentlemen, thank you both. >> merry christmas. >> good to see you. >> thank you so much. heading toward the close.

buy or sell here? any pressure that you know of? >> they were to the buy side. they've begun to pair off. you have to watch the dow and see if it can hold on to the gains. >> and that's what we're doing. up 81 now. s&p also in record territory. >> we are going to set you up for the new year. bob pisani spotting out money making opportunities in 2015. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts means your peace of mind. it's no wonder last year we sold over three million tires. and during the big tire event, get up to $140 in mail-in rebates on four select tires. ♪ outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you.

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welcome back. if you hadn't been following along, dow set to close above 18,000 for the first time ever today. >> and with 2014 drawing to a close, only as good as the latest milestone, could dow 19,000 be on tap for 2015? opening up the 2015 playbook to see what trends may lie in the new year that could keep the markets flying. here's bob pisani peering through that 2015 crystal ball. >> russia will be an even bigger problem next year though europe will surprise and google gets serious in its fight with apple. here are three predictions for 2015, boring they're not. first, russia defaults on its debt.

the russian ruble has hit new lows against the dollar. oil has dropped 40%. crude oil a petroleum products half of russia's export revenues. how will they pay for imports? they will default on their debt. second, the european stock market outperforms the u.s. stock market. no recession next year in core europe. the eurozone is stuck in a long-term, no growth environment. the euro will remain weak boosting trade. after a year of expectations downward, european corporate earnings will begin turning around. deflation will remain an issue. third, google buys paypal. paypal is scheduled to be spun off in 2015 sometime. it won't happen. google will buy it and combine it with google wallet to ward off applepay. >> well, let's bring in bob

pisani for a closer look at the predictions now. >> wow. >> bob, which one do you feel like you're really going out on a limb here? >> default? >> look. i think the russian default, all we keep hearing is this is not 1998 russia. they have bigger reserves. a different country. blah, blah, blah. what i see is the same problems, big drop in oil in 1998. big drop in metals and still basically the same mentality. export driven completely reliant largely on commodities. i think it's a very real possibility. look guys. we know there's millions of prognosticators out there and most of them are wrong. my attitude is, at least be a little bit bold in the predictions and at least try to make it interesting and that's what i try to do. >> they did say that making our predictions for 2015. be bold. i don't know. i'm starting to rethink the dow 25,000 for next yore. >> 118,000 is the new high and extrapolation, bob, if the rally

continues. >> it will go on forever. i like the idea of the whole google deal and google and paypal. i think that's a real possibility, as well. i think applepay is going to gain momentum in the year. i'm getting my new phone this week. i'm going to turn on applepay immediately and i think people will make it a plausible threat. >> are you getting a new blackberry? >> no. not this week. but i have my old one. i have a genuine 2007 blackberry. >> a classic-classic. >> sending it to the smithsonian. >> thanks, bob. >> see you, robert. 13 minutes to go here and, again, it's pressure across the nasdaq for some reasons related to biotechs and the s&p holding positive territory here. that would be a record close. so, too, 75-point gain for the dow jones industrial average to close above 18,000 for the first time. >> history being made today. anything could happen these final minutes of trade it says

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record territory for the s&p. not so much for the nasdaq, obviously. >> joining us now, oliver portia and peter costa. where is your hat? >> i'm not going to wear a hat. >> why? >> to me it's 18,000's not that significant. >> why? >> it's another number. you know? >> we do it first time ever you don't care? >> no. it doesn't affect my business. doesn't affect my portfolio or anything. i mean i know you love talking about it. >> i'm not sure i believe you. listen. in other words, i understand the 18,000 is just one point above 17,999 and the point is it represents a significant stock market rally. >> the rally is definitely relevant because i'm out of the rally but, you know, it's a number. what we look at more is the all-time highs. and this is going to be the 51st all-time high this year and that's significant. 18,000, 16,000, it's the highs. >> and the backdrop, oliver, 5%

gdp. 5.8%. >> we have talked about this before. low interest rates, strong corporate earnings growth, strong economic growth and the world around us is falling apart. we talk about all these headwinds and the negatives and they're there but it's not quite as brutal as we make it sound. >> stay the course? >> print your dow 20,000 hats because it will come. >> what if staying the course for people not in the market in there's a tension between oliver saying stay in the market and you're not in it and sounds like you don't want to be in it. >> i've always wanted to get out of it because stocks are fully priced an ento stay in the market fully priced, i think the risk going up or the reward is not that much whereas the risk on the downside is more. only reason i'm out of this. i don't believe in the market right now. >> partially agreeing with peter. what you will see in 2015 is a significant performance die vur intelligence and not sure just sticking with the dow or s&p 500

opposed to stock and sector specific is best strategy. >> when's going higher and lower? >> health care, technology, high-quality, dividend-paying stocks perform well in 2015. utilities and some of the materials and economically sensitive multi-nationals underperform. >> just before i leave you, peter, relevance of the dow generally speaking, yes, it is relevant, no, it is not and s&p is all that matters or none of them? >> it all depends on your perspective. every mom and pop want it is look at the dow. much more i think it signifies the u.s. economy and the s&p is more significant because it's broader, makes more sense. it's did i have in itly a better indication of the u.s. economy. the dow isn't that good but the s&p 500 is more. >> all right. >> both in record territory we should add at the moment. >> stay there. we'll come back with the closing countdown for the christmas eve eve. >> with history made today,

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day there and we are up 77 points right now. obviously off the highs but we are enough for 18,000. the 10-year, i will say yields have been going up here. since the fed's meeting last week, since that 5% print this morning, on the third quarter gdp, look at what the yield on the 10-year has done, 2.26% and especially the 2-year and the 5-year notes going up, as well. doubling from what they were like a month or 6 weeks ago and oil a bit of a bounce there. we know the story there. gasoline prices down 89 days in a row and a bit of a bounce for crude oil. wti up 3% today. we are at $56.97. wh what's worse, getting into the market and sustaining a loss or missing out on a rally when you're out of this market? >> it depends on where you got out and if you got out at a profit. a profit, thank you very much, america --

>> you did. >> i did. >> you're not ruing you didn't get back? >> no. this is all traders. you don't sit there and dwell on what you missed. you real initial in the profits. okay? >> what are you going to buy for the comie inine ining year here? staying the course but are there opportunities to take advantage of here? energy for example. >> buying the energy stocks in particular the european energy stocks beaten down double as much. we love bce which is the canadian bell company with a great yield, great business. nearly a monopoly with a 5.5% yield. those are the type of companies to buy in this environment and the trend is up and extra 4% to 5% dividend boost insulates you. we know no matter what, we see a few more of these 5% to 10% corrections that hopefully stay temporary. >> what do you think, i mean, janet yellen said, we always are

taking her at her word here. not that we shouldn't. but, you know, we have at least two fed meetings next year. then we might have to start watching for a rate increase. what do you think the market does with that? >> well, probably going to be some sort of an emotional overreaction when it happens. to me the question isn't april or may or june. that's insignificant. the question is by how much do they raise and they have given us that answer and what do they do subsequently? take a wait and see approach and things are very, very good for the market or do they continue to raisin cementally? we have seen through history, the first rate hike doesn't hurt the market but the last one. >> what are you waiting for? >> new year. i think there are opportunities and i think that that's what i'm looking for, more on the opportunity side opposed to getting back into the market. i'll pick my spots. >> thank you. happy holidays. appreciate it very much. we are going out.

looks like we'll make history today. first close above 18,000 on the dow jones industrial average and we have a record high for the s&p 500, as well. kelly and are on early tomorrow. half a day tomorrow and see you at noon earn on "the closing bell." here's hour number two with kelly evans and company. see you tomorrow! thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." a historic day on wall street as the dow closes above 18,000 for the first time. i'm kelly evans. the applause not just for the marketless but the green beret foundation here to ring the closing bell on the christmas eve eve as we have been saying. stacking up on the markets. dow losing momentum right into the close but we're still going without a gain of about 67 points and that is good enough for the first close above 18,000. 18,026 to be exact. a going of almost .4%.

the s&p and nasdaq lagging that performance. a fresh record high for the s&p. 2082 and change. nasdaq down on the session amid a tough day with talk of a pricing war of the biotechs. about a third of 1% to 4765. the nasdaq 5,000 hats aren't out just yet. our panel is here. joining me now is michael yoshikami, zachary carabel and jon fortt and joining us will be kenny pulcari and steve grasso. michael, you are here from the west coast just in time for dow 18,000. what do you make of it? >> not surprising. federal reserve is so accommodativ accommodative. the markets starting to collapse. what happened? federal reserve came out in force to talk about how they were going to be supportive for the market. >> riddle me the 2-year then.

>> i don't know. >> that's what i'm saying and so interesting. >> the only way to really justify the 2-year doing what it's doing is perhaps 5% gdp print and people thinking the fed is coy here. >> this is why it's so important. for single headline or argument to hear today about how it's all the fed and pushed us above 18,000, if that's the case, then why are we actually pricing in fed rate hikes if you look at the 2-year? >> bond market investors are different than equity market investors. >> fair point, fair point. >> they're very much looking about long-term, earnings growth and interest rates low. bond investors, generally pretty cynical and negative. that's -- no offense if anybody here is a bonds trader. that's the reality. i think that if you have a strong gdp growth the concern is there's that surprise out of the blue that all of a sudden the fed's going to surprise on the upside with rates. >> zachary, what do you make of it? >> feels like just july of dow 17,000. >> because -- >> because it was just july. i think that this argument's

going to go on and never answered, fed or not the fed. there's also huge global accommodative action between the ecb, japan, chinese central bank and live in a world of liquidity, the fed or not and changing policy, it is our central bank but it is not the only central bank even with the dollar as the global reserve currency. 5% gdp growth today and doesn't change unemployment or wealth disconnects in this country it's 5% gdp and i think there are fundamental reasons for equities to be stronger. >> remember good news bad news? meant the fed rate hikes drawing closer? why now getting the good news is it good news? >> may be a recognition. say the fed goes to 25 or 50 basis points in 2015, alan greenspan talked about the interest conundrum and even as they raise rates, long-term rates were coming down and only so much the fed does.

there's a global market determined interest rate environment that is incredibly low and i expect that's incredibly low, just the cost of capital globally is low. >> exactly. don't you think that if we have an environment where we have growth but at the same time we have enough concerns out there to moderate the concern we're going to have excess growth and keeps rates low? >> absolutely. that's a total recipe for equities to go modestly or more and why david tepper's concern and what we talked about a lot on cnbc. overstated. >> it is not 1999 all over again or is it? >> well no. i'm a simple man, kelly. i look out there and i see gas prices are low. but crude oes not in free fall. natural gas also low. it's the holiday season. the visa u.s. vice president told us after black friday, after cyber monday sales picked up. iphone 6 and 6 plus, one product

that actually moves national numbers, it is doing extremely well. so going into 2015, a number of things look good and stocks are up. >> a simple man with deep insights. >> yes. not so simple. >> sales did go up and the sales more aggressive, right, to the consumer after black friday. everything was going on sale and well before, you know, two dais before christmas. >> i was buying on black friday. that's not one day anymore. >> exactly right. after black friday, things going on sale trying to draw the consumer in. >> same sales. >> that being said, i think the number is an outlier and not sure everyone believes it. so off the charts in terms of expectation. >> the gdp? >> 4.3 the estimate. it's 5%. it's a great number. i get it. i should only hope it's real and some concern out there that maybe some pulled in from the fourth quarter and what is it going to be. >> and that lumpy health care

spending moving things around, as well. steve grasso is here off the floor, as well. when's the next direction for stocks? >> if you look at the charts it signals probably looking at an s&p in a cash of 2080 or 2100. looks fully priced to year end. you asked why good news is good news. because look at what the alternatives are. where do you invest right now? russia? any of the eem countries? the answer's no, right? still the best place. but i will tell you by the same token, if any of those things get incrementally better, it's a zero sum game and start to see money come out of the u.s. equity market. >> we are already hearing that. >> if you look at those charts they would probably point to every two months-ish, maybe a 5% selloff. not the end of the world but you could see that coming. >> fascinatingly, though, if you

looked at fund flows, not trading, not short-term money, the money flowing out of u.s. equities all year and large cap going up into the eem stocks going down and either a massive yearlong case of investors buying low, right, buying the emerging story or no one really still believes the u.s. story in spite of all of this at least judging by the fund flows. >> looking at apple, the fear of large numbers, so you saw apple run into a wall right there. and apple, microsoft, intel, all these names that have outperformed to your point have started to drift back into maybe those mid cap names or small cap names but i think overall in the next two months everything is susceptible to the 5% selloff. >> of course. you see a significant selloff in equities, 4%, 5%. >> michael -- >> not straight up and be very, very careful. investing in new capital in the

market, we have people sitting out there watching right now with the money in cash. you know what they're thinking today? dow 18,000. maybe it's time to get in. >> no. >> all that money -- >> you know why? there are a lot of people in that situation. >> a lot of people in that situation but how many people are looking at this as the higher it goes the more they feel like they have missed it? >> absolutely true but there's a point when if you're not in the market, there's a temptation to throw money in it. i'm not saying do it. i'm saying that's the temptation. if you're going to invest, in assets, in a way that is going to be prudent with the market at where it's now, go slow and be cautious. buy best of breed. >> no one's predicting a flat to down year, though, kelly. right? everyone that you've spoken with said what about next year? high single digits. where are they getting that number from? this is a huge impact of energy,

lower priced energy to the bottom line to margins of a lot of companies. >> that's very true. >> when does that stop? when does the eem become more vogue and rates increase? anyone predicted down 10% next year? no. >> no. that's true. that's also the nature as equity analysts and how many keep their job long term talking about a market moving down? >> as long as oil is down here, you don't have to worry about that effect. you don't. it's been a huge plus for margins. >> part of the reason you don't hear that, too, you have analysts saying that last year after a big year and that's part of the issue with another big year this year. >> talking about forecasts for the stock market more cautious last year. >> exactly. look at the year we got. >> halfway through. >> up 10%, 12%, we're going to dow 20,000. >> no, no, no. it's a demand problem. you have ebola, russia. now starting to see energy coming in, everyone's starting to say chi in's not growing at 11%, is it growing at 7%?

if oil crashes, it makes the market think when's wrong? what have we missed? >> there's too much supply! >> are you advocating shorting the market here? >> talking to me? >> yeah. >> i felt like deniro right there. >> talking to you. >> right now, if oil does not, dutz not level off, if you see oil break 50 by january or february, right now, we can all agree, this is year end, stuff? can i go on that assumption? january or february oil breaks 50, i would say get out of everything you own in equity market. >> absolutely not! >> that's a total -- >> absolutely not! >> that's a total trading phenomenon. there's a huge disconnect. oil disappointed and fear that some set of convertible notes or high yield to default but then the reality if oil breaks below 50, massive lower heating bills. >> global growth. what does it mean with -- >> corporate profits.

>> absolutely. but right no the bottom line of a lot of these companies. >> oil question is very much like, you know, an interest rate one and moving to a world less oil dependent even as it's energy consumptive. you have more natural gas. >> of course, of course. >> other sources of energy. frankly, you have coal. >> it's a global demand problem. goods luck with your scenario. markets don't go one way. we have only seen that for years but you have to -- i think it's ignorant to say to people that are watching the show, lock up some of the profits. please. take some of the profits off the table. we're looking at markets -- >> absolutely. absolutely. >> taking profits off the table is much different than saying i'm going to bail and go on an island completely in cash. >> also depends on who you're talking about. profits off the table. >> going on an island, completely. beginning of october you were a genius. we are not talking going -- >> maybe not that far. >> that's the issue and why the viewers need to be aware. all of us have a perspective. your perspective. i'm not obviously -- you're a

brilliant about short-term trading is a shorter term perspective. >> absolutely. >> i'm talking about -- okay. very important for people to hear that. i'm talking about longer term perspective. >> i'm on "fast money." >> then maybe you should go to it. >> we'll start the slow and steady show. >> give me the exit, kelly. >> okay. let's just raise -- >> slow and steady money. >> one just to go back to one of the arguments about why these things move around a little bit, zachary, if the trade that people were making and a commodities trade, call it for five years and the housing bubble collapsed and talking about emerging markets, as that's unwound and can that happen simultaneously? you get an outcome where that's still supportive of this rally continuing well into next year and beyond? >> it depends. look. i'm overbullish on the commodity

cycles and it's certainly true to have the end of a super cycle because there's some slowing of just pure roads and buildings being built without that deeply impacting the united states. to some degree, though, some of the strength is a proxy of global strength or global growth and if you had a commodities super cycle collapsing and if oil implodes there's no way that the united states just becomes this perfectly inoculated island. >> no, absolutely not. absolutely not. >> we have to leave it there. thank you, everybody. catch steve grasso on "fast money" at 5:00. they'll be talking to the ceo of spirit airlines about what -- >> slow and steady money hour. >> the forecast for your flight. that's all coming up. up next, much more of our special dow 18,000 coverage here. our cnbc all-star panel weighing in next on where the market is heading from here. you're watching the slow,

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back. julia? >> thanks, kelly. walt disney company and directv signing a multi-year agreement to cover the distribution of disney's channels from the disney channel to espn to even disney jr. and the key thing here, kelly, is that this isn't just about distribution but digital access to the channels. directv obviously wants to give the customers more perks, more access through an authenticated service and have to log in in order to maintain the numbers. statement saying customers will be able to access these channels on digital platforms through watch products and new services as part of the subscription including fusion, longhorn network, espn buzzer beater, et cetera. kelly, all about the digital access to keep them hooked. back over to you. >> wow. julia, it is. what a day on wall street. dow closing above 18,000 first

time ever. our panel has ideas and joined by bob pisani. rick santelli in chicago. bertha coombs at the nasdaq. and the rest of the panel. rick, what a discussion we were having. how should people think about where we go from here? >> well, listen. i could see steve grasso's focus and, yes, he is a short-term trader but the only difference is the world is short term. i mean, i understand all the long-term strategy and what we want to tell the viewing audience of profits but face it. whether you're a corporation, a government, whether you're central bank, everybody's pretty much living in the immediacy of the moment and nerve wracking with central bankers long-term plans. can't be a long-term plan and i continue to say things look great now. listen f. the fed didn't have a big balance sheet, interest rates more normalized and looked at everything i see, i'd be so

much happier. we don't know what the reality is. we have no idea how these things are going to play out and, indeed, some 069 of the data po suggest it's smoothing out and i think that's a big positive. >> zach, he brings up an interesting point talking about when's in this market and who's not, but a lot of pension funds and some of the institutional money with this quarterly effect of having to show performance going back to the crisis got out of the stock market and still massively underweighted and i wonder if their contributions will -- >> for a rare moment in time, i agree with everything rick just said. in terms of the uncertainty principle. >> an you had to preface it with that, of course. >> i did, i did. >> of course. >> and i think we'll have some interesting playout of central bank theory of what you can do with the balance sheets. pension funds have had an odd ride of it and equity market so

much stronger than people thought you have not had the municipal or pension prices we were talking about two, three years ago as a looming weight around the economy and not played out. >> bob, seeing any flows here? talk about who's getting into the market. >> right. i'll tell you something i saw disturbing today. be careful towards the end of the year. biotech stocks hit heavily and yesterday the at list of express scripts deal and today follow-through and generally o biotech and pharma were hit. they dominate in the etfs and dominate this market and i think you need to be careful here making any broad comments about suddenly the biotech market's falling apart because it's down two days. >> a thing about the market looking this year, you know, whenever there is a time to sell, people decide they want to take some profits, that's where they do it. because they continue to outperform the market year in, year out. we saw that in february, we saw

it in april. they bounced back. saw it in october. they bounced back and even as we talk about this huge pullback today, you look at the btk up 45% year to date. even with this huge pullback of today is up about 30%. and that all kind of speaks to health care in a sense. i know i'm going to sneak in a health care reference there but even if you have all those cross currents going along, the fact is with the economy improving people are going to pay. what we're seeing with express scripts and the hep-c players and the specialty pharma is happening in health care overall. more sense of competition trying to bring out more competition when it comes to better pricing and more transparency. but that doesn't mean there's not growth there. >> you're talking about is really longer term trends and fundamental trends in health care as people age and i think

back to what rick was saying earlier. when's confusing for investors is this whole sort of bridge between a short term or long-term trader. long term, i don't know if it makes sense is made up of a lot of little short term strung together and you cannot make a decision on the long term and just say to yourself, hey, i don't care if i lose 50%, goes down 20%. i'm a long-term investor. in the world we live in today with information transmitting so fast and jon's the expert about this. mr. social media. you know how fast things move. the reality is the short term is going to drive the markets. string all those together, overlying trends together, get a long-term strategy, that's the combination strategy that works for most investors. >> we can ignore a lot of short-term noise -- >> some, some. >> if the fundamentals, you know, a couple of important props are in place then witness what's happened for five years. >> yeah. well, i think when you look at

the short term, the number of different kinds of stocks and different kind of tech stocks there's a different story. look at gopro. shot way up. now down i believe in the 50s. maybe near 60. another stock, apple. you know, really depressed and had a strong year all year. come off a little bit over a past few weeks and not significantly. as we go into the next year i think it feels like it's likely we are going to see an interesting versus story. maybe everything doesn't move in the same direction but you have got qualcomm versus intel. right? they can't probably both win because they're looking for chip domination. you've got facebook versus google in display ads and video. microsoft versus amazon in the cloud. very different points of view about how to conquer there and probably one point of view wins out over the other. >> we have to go but a quick word on this, as well. whenever i hear people say it's a year for stock pickers, i get

nervous. look at what happened this year. volatility underneath is massive. look at the energy surprise. the lesson if anything to just buy the index and not try to figure out who's going to win the battles you were talking about. >> this is not a year for stock pickers. they have underperformed the fund and it's just been very difficult to beat an index. >> it's been a much better year in stocks overall. >> yes. >> if you're -- >> of course. >> if you're a retiree, nearing retirement and wanted that protection in bonds, you really got no growth and very little protection this year. >> last word, bob? >> you hit a home run long 30-year bonds, boy. premiums, principle, and interest and price appreciation it was the home run of 2014. you didn't have one day that position worked against you from the very first day of the year. >> incredible. >> i think the chances that oil

will have a $60 or $70 handle 6 months from now is very high and that's why i'm encouraging people to look at the xip and oil service and oil exploration and production names an i the n >> there's an idea. thanks, everybody. don't go anywhere. we have much more coming up. tech stocks blowing away the s&p 500 this year but some of the biggest names in tech are actually some of the biggest disappointments. we'll round up those tumblers for you when we come right back. stay tuned.

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welcome back. that's a pretty great christmas gift for the bulls. dow closing above 18,000 for the first time ever today. not all stockless sharing in the cheer. some tech giants are feeling major pain. our dock nick chu has the list of the misfits now. >> so, kelly, in honor of the land of misfit toys this holiday season we have a land of misfit stocks and one more chance to find rudolph if you haven't already. if you missed him, i'll tweet it out today. let's look at what happened. 21% up and a real good performance and a handful of these names not participated in the nice rally for technology stocks. look at one of the big giants that's notice bring not participated. it's not done all that poorly but still it's down 5%. we are talking about internet search giant google with pe of

28. that's higher than 19 of the overall sector and dynamics there company specific. moving on from google, another one is a dow component, ibm. big blue down 14% year to date. trades at a discount to the sector and the market and some may be looking at it as a turnaround story in 2015. and another one is first solar on the solar side of things a company down 20% year to date and trades at about 17 times earnings. so one that trades at a discount to where the overall sector does and looking at the tech sector, we always say it's the biggest sector in the entire s&p 500 and when you have a nice move to the upside, kelly, 20 plus percent, it's noticeable when they don't participate in the rally. you wonder whether or not they'll emerge from the land of misfit stocks and whether investors putt them back on the shopping list some time soon. >> let's debate that question. thank you very much.

we look forward to the tweets of rudolph, too. lou, good to see you. are you buying some of the laggards here? >> no. i think google's the most interesting to me of all of them and it's a defacto etf on the biggest tech trends of the future. look at drones and wearables with google glass. home automation and nest and the list goes on so from a large cap, mega capper suspective, google is interesting as a laggard and first solar, not interested. ibm, just too big. i'm looking for smaller innovators that might be acquisition candidates. >> disruptive tech, tell us about some disruptive tech. if google is not, what do you like? >> yeah, no, absolutely. i like two things. one is in the wireless charging space. it's a company of energist.

they're a true wireless charging. if you look at when's been talked about for years, this is the year of wireless charging, it's been magnetic, inductive and charging at a small distance. >> what does this do? >> yeah, this is a totally different approach. instead of magnetics it is over wi-fi signals. talking about the ability to get power transmission at about 15 feet so imagine walking into a starbucks and your iphone starts charging. >> yeah. that seems to be the missing link here in terms of being able to get more productivity out of the mobile phones here. a quick question to the panel. are you interested in terms of investing in some bigger cap names now? >> i'm not interested in -- first of all, i mean, i trade in my personal account. but, you know, just because they're down doesn't mean they're going to be up and the fact they're technically lagging a group doesn't particularly

make them interesting. i mean, i think google is much more interesting regardless of how one calculates the forward pe. i'm not a fan. you don't know what they're going to be. ibm has problems of what they will be. they've reinvented themselves and what are they going to be in a global world with competition? but these are very specific issues and the reasons those stocks have lagged have to do with the fundamental challenges and don't go into them with underperforming the group. >> what if they were going to get into the buyback game more aggressively? >> they'd have to be really, really aggressive and talking about ibm or google, you are talking about -- >> ibm is in aggressively and i'm talking about those on the scene newer. >> stock buybacks only help to a degree. you have to have the right marketing strategy, right products. google i think is a lot of ways

a lot less of a tech company and media and advertising. i think if you look at the names, they're not really what i would call driver technology names. driver technology names, thinking of technology, nameless to push forward as jon mentioned. qualcomm or intel. there's going to be a drive there. buying a breadbasket, that's what etfs are for. >> jon, how likely could google have an announcement to be a catalyst? >> i'm not sure google has to. it has a lot of cash and moving into an m&a cycle and able to maybe buy into an enterprise play and moving into a cycle in tech that's more enterprise weighted. look at oracle trading based on some of the decisions they have made and challenges with companies like sisqo and done very well this year and microsoft has, as well. the ability to keep it going and base and the trends we have seen likely to try to bulk up using

the cash that they have humid and maybe not just in terms of buybacks and buy the way into market expansion and then you have to look at an investor of whose management team do i believe in and atracking these technologies do i believe in and own that profit down the line? >> lou -- >> lou definitely knows this. on stock buybacks, if the only thing you know what to do with the cash and buy or own stocks, boards will cheer you, i think it is a really bad sign about the future of the company. >> lou, a last word to you on that. if you could just tell us whether to jon's point of the enterprise names here do you see opportunities at all there that you like? >> no. i love jon's theme of 2015 is versus market. and in that market, i think stock pickers have to look to find those companies that facebook and google are going to acquire. google bought nest. i think what's most interesting

to me is a company that might be an acquisition candidate for sky works and that's resident. i think from a bigger strategy perspective you have to look away and see what companies are going to buy in the small and mid cap space to give them that competitive advantage, forget using the cash for buybacks. use it for acquisitions for new vertical markets. >> absolutely. >> sounds like that's what invest to recalls are doing here. >> thank you. >> dow 18,000 is all the rage on wall street. could anything top that on the hot list? we'll check in next. plus, oil bouncing back a bit today sen there a reason to believe crude is putting in a bottom here? experts joining us to weigh in when we come back.

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hey john,whoa!k it out. yeah, i was testing to see if we really can turn any device in your house into a tv. and the tablet worked just fine. but i wanted to see if the phone would work as well. so i shrunk sharon. every channel is live just like on tv. but it's my phone. it's genius. shh! i'm watching tv. tiny sharon is mean. i'm right here. watch any channel live on any device around your home. download the xfinity tv app today. dow 18,000 today is a reality on wall street and the blue chip index owing it to exxon and chevron today. jackie deangelis rounds up the action and what are people saying? >> this is the question. you teased it, is this a bottom? traders are saying we haven't

really reached that point just yet. maybe a dead cat bounce and we have come down so far so fast but they're saying that they're cautious here and they think it's a pause. we could potentially see another leg lower in the new year because it comes to supply and demand and i outlined the numbers for you before but they don't add up just yet. we have to see the supply shrink or the demand have to come out of asia or europe or somewhere where we're not expecting it to. meantime, you also have a dollar index at 90 and point out that most analysts are say they expect the dollar is strengthen from here and traders telling me that impact will hit in january, as well. nat gas today getting a pop higher but still under $3.20. take it into account the fact that retail gas prices slid, nat gas slid. consumers have a good gift here before christmas. saving on heating the homes and driving around. hopefully impact other areas of the economy.

kelly? >> thank you. let's bring in steven shork. sounds like you don't think it's a bottom in oil at all. >> when we're getting to zero i'll be confident. >> when we get to zero? yeah. i think we'll share your confidence. >> thank you for joining us today, steven. >> absolutely. look. last week, last week, open interest in the $40 put for february delivery jumped from 15 contracts to over 5,100 contracts. there are people betting that we'll see zsup-$40 a barrel oil. if there's a market today, i don't want to venture that we're anywhere near the bottom at this point. >> steven? >> i still like playing -- >> i have a question for you. i understand what your price is on oil. one of the things in your notes here talks about that the

biggest drop in six years may erode millions of dollars for principle for structured note hold holders. why do i care about that when oil prices are low and there's more money and matter to me as an investor? >> well, as an investor in the general economy, in essence, we have to keep in mind they don't lead economic growth. economic growth drives commodity prices. we have had oil prices drop nearly 60% over the past 4 months and yet the iea is still lowering oil demand growth. so for me, when we look at japan, in its fourth recession of the last seven years, the downturn in china, the situation in europe with germany and france on the precipice of recession there -- >> but doesn't that just mean that it would have been much worse if oil prices had not been as low? >> well -- >> i'm not saying cause and

effect here. >> i mean, well, i mean, it's a cart and horse scenario. at this point. and look. the numbers out of the u.s. economy, today's gdp number, fantastic. but how much longer can the united states do this alone when we do see what the central bankers penchant for ma anyplace lating interest rates and the growth here versus elsewhere in the world and means to the dollar so certainly we're going to be looking at a situation with u.s. manufacturers, exporters trying to sell product into lagging economies around the globe. at a substantial increase in price because of the dollar trading at a $5, 6 and 7-year high. >> i cannot wait for the cnbc headline expert oil headed for zero in an hour. that is much wider conversation than 3:30-segment but energy and commodity prices and touched on this as a proxy for economic

growth may misstate the kind of world we're living in right now. google groes and people use it. it's only energy consumption is how much the servers which are global and do consumer it. we have an economic model of services and technology which except for china building roads or india joining the party is not so commodity and energy dependent and you could have an uncoupling of economic growth and this thing of energy and commodities. >> i would make the case if there's a coupling we should uncouple right now. >> consciously or otherwise? >> i don't think it's necessarily cause and effect. i think that lower energy prices can help reduce the negativity we see in the world. not the driver for growth. but if you've got -- if you're feeling gas at $2 a gallon, you have more money in the pocket. >> i understand. but stooe but, steven, if everybody's making a trade and building these products around oil at

$100, for example, and we're massively off that and not going back any time soon, who's bearing the losses and how much of a risk on the financial system is that ultimately? >> i mean, it's certainly going to be -- not this year. and look. supply is still going to outstrip demand in 2015 because, one, first and foremost, venezuela as, you know, for an instance. >> steven, the question is -- >> hang on. let him finish. go ahead, steven. >> yeah, no. so we're looking. hold on. i get this decoupling part but let's keep in mind that demand in e las tisty on the oil is downturn. substitutes and the environment. that is to say we have more electric motors, clean diesel. no longer cool to drive down putnam avenue in a hummer. i get that. that's not the economic growth or the driver has been. it's been in the producing countries. so, yes, it's very good to sit here in connecticut and great to fill up my prius at whatever

price but let's look at the instability that we're now creating in the world. we're looking at the middle east with the income of oil and only reason to placate their masses is with the subsidies to give off of oil revenue. take that revenue away from that region of the country. take it away from brazil, from nigeria, west africa and we are looking at a powder keg in the years ahead if we persist down this road. >> thank you. important point. and we need to keep following it heading into 2015. steven, merry christmas, as well. should investors worry about this rally? david tepper says, yes. he says 2015 like 1999 when stock valuations were out of control and the details next with the hot list. stay tuned.

markets, markets, markets. that's what we've been focusing as the dow crossed that all-important 18,000 line. let's get a check and see if that's heating up the hot list with allen. >> it's all about the markets and our poor market writer kate gibson, about to fall down collapsing, exhausted with all the traffic she's been carrying for us for a few days. people obsessed about markets. two offshoots today. one how the dollar's been soaring right in line with the economy. that's been getting a lot of traffic. also, look at oil stocks. which ones are the winners in this oil meltdown you were talking about and tell zach, no,

we don't have to resort to oil going to zero headline. why? sony. once again, sony is one of the big leaders right now. >> so mean. >> the fact that the interslew is now going back into theaters, sony re-caving and drawing reader interest there. that's the hot ones today, kelly. >> working tirelessly. appreciate it to you and everybody today. back at headquarters. major indexes soaring again posting record highs and crossing landmark levels. dominic chu will rejoin us next to tell us the biggest movers from the dow 17,000 mark to today's 18,000 breakthrough. "closing bell" tomorrow noon to 2:00 p.m. eastern time and the market closes early for christmas. we'll get you 2015 sector predictions and hear from a fund manager beating the street and might be a little song performance, shall i say, to ring in the closing bell here, as well. stay tuned for all of it. we're back in two. arts at 6:30 e nose.

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hey john,whoa!k it out. yeah, i was testing to see if we really can turn any device in your house into a tv. and the tablet worked just fine. but i wanted to see if the phone would work as well. so i shrunk sharon. every channel is live just like on tv. but it's my phone. it's genius. shh! i'm watching tv. tiny sharon is mean. i'm right here. watch any channel live on any device around your home. download the xfinity tv app today. welcome back, a huge day for markets here as the dow closed above 18,000 for the first time. dom economic chu is breaking in the blue chip stocks. >> july 3 was the last time we hit 17,000 so the march to

18,000 we can see that big move today up about a half percent, up 64 points. a decent session but if you look over the course of the past year since july 3 it has been a nice move higher between 17 to 18,000. so out of the thousand points that we've gotten, approximately since that point, we decided to take a look at what's been driving performance in the dow. so if you look, we've got a handful of names here that have been real, real big point drivers. first of all, industrial giant 3m. out of the thousand, 140 points came from 3m since july. goldman sachs added 160 points to that total and the real big driver, 300 points of the thousand points the dow's gained has come just because of visa alone. so visa has been a huge driver for the dow's performance. if you look at the ones that have been drags on the dow during that same time period, look at caterpillar, heavy ma shinery. it's taking about 120 points away from the dow's performance. chevron, no surprise here.

123 points on the down side because of chevron. and ibm is still the biggest point drag on the dow since july 3, kelly. it's taken about 175 points away. were it not for these companies, you could have seen the dow at even higher levels. but visa the real standout here, kelly. 300 points to that thousand pointed a vance. back over to you. >> diversification even with the 3 30-basket name. will the market momentum continue during tomorrow, a shortened trading day? we have a quick look at that and what tells panel is watching when we come right back. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops.

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welcome back. time for final thoughts with the panel. zach, you were saying some with regard to the dispersion we've seen with the dow, that that's a reason not to take the dow seriously. >> i think the degree to which these indices have issues of waiting and composition, we use proxies all the time, i wrote a book about indicators, about the difficulty of those problem sis. i think you need to know what goes into these con stitch whens. it's like buying apple and the kbs as an etf. it's just saying be aware. >> the reason why i bring it up, and this is a debate i was

having with felix and people have had in quite a bit. if you stack up the dow which is only 30 names against the 500 and s&p, the correlation is still high. that's what's interesting about it is not the fact that it's not indicative of what the broader market was doing but that it still is. >> part of the correlation being high is the large cap concentration in these component indices is very high. large caps have had a very good year, you'll have a lot of correlation. if we earn a year in 2015 where mid-and small caps do better, you'll have indexes first as well. >> is the s&p price weighted or market cap weighted? >> market cap weighted? >> so the dow is price weighted, that's another reason why they should very and they don't. >> because equity market generally trend. when you say account correlate," that's a dangerous word, if you put those two charts on top of each other and you've invested for ten years, it's a gigantic difference. >> but is that total return when you include dividends? i know on a price basis there's probably -- >> if you're just buying the index, if you're just buying the

index. >> but what do you consider a big enough difference to matter? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. >> so in favor of which? buying the s&p. >> well, not in favor, the difference. there's a difference. in favor is a judgment. >> i understand. >> the difference is that the s&p 500 has more of those tech names, it has more small cap. what does dow have in terms of tech? it doesn't have a lot of tech. >> john ford? >> what i'm watching is two groups of stocks. on one hand, microsoft, intel, cisco, companies that were big back during the dotcom boom, the tech boom which have gotten the benefit of the doubt this year, what happens to them next year if they take a tumble it says something. also, amazon, netflix and pando pandora, tech companies that have high value bush administrations, a lot of hope behind them but content costs. they've come down this year, what happens to them in the coming year? >> we'll leave it on those questions. thanks for being here. merry christmas eve eve if i don't see you before then. we'll send it to fast money now in just a few moments with steve grasso and melissa lee.

>> as the dow is rising to a new record that there's one sector that is getting smacked down for a second day. we'll tell you where you can find the buys in that sector. >> melissa, we have to hear about this. people are arguing is this a good thing for the consumer or a bad one the same way they're arguing about the drop in oil prices, i would love to hear it. >> thanks, kelly, have a great holiday. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square. a historic day on wall street today. the dow closing above 18,000 for the first time ever. names like visa, goldman sachs, home depot leading the index from 17,000 to 18,000. today hedge fund giant david tepper made comparisons between 1999 and what 2015 could bring saying "for next year, you have to be aware of the possibility for some sort of overvaluation of the markets and they are fair value right now." now, remember in 1999 the s&p went to a 30