got hacked? a rough christmas day for gaming fans. the hacker group claiming responsibility. "the interview" goes off without a hitch. sony's controversial movie opening at a few hundred theaters drawing many sellout audienc audiences. and let the real shopping begin. christmas has come and gone now it's time for consumers to cash in on post-holiday sales. second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen. becky enjoying the day off. and for viewers outside of the united states, happy boxing day. it comes from a tradition where boxes were given to people and the box would include a gift or two and perhaps some leftovers from the tables of the wealthy. i used to think it was boxing day. i didn't know. i learned this about a decade ago, but every year we get e-mails from people saying thank you for explaining that. we didn't know. >> it's said some of the boxes include gifts. do some of the boxes people just give boxes? >> i think sometimes it was leftover food. >> food or -- >> but not just boxes, right?

>> i have to tell you, my children jumped into an empty box yesterday. thought it was a rocketship and thought that was the greatest gift they could have gotten. >> remember in splash he gives darryl hannah a box and she goes it's beautiful. no, open it. because you don't know for sure if it's wrapped nice. >> pretty box. in the headlines this morning, the holiday shopping season was a successful one for retailers according to the international council of shopping centers. this year's holiday sales growth will be the best in three years thanks to a late surge. standard & poor's is near a settlement with real estate bonds. we're still talking about this. yes. "the wall street journal" reports a deal may involve -- get this -- a suspension from rating some of the new issues for up to a year and a fine of at least $60 million. japanese prime minister shinzo

abe is planning a new $29 billion stimulus program. it will get final approval over the weekend in another attempt to push japan out of recession and deflation. we have been talking about this movie now for two or three weeks. i really do think it would have came and went kind of quietly. but a ton of buzz. not just for the normal reasons. sony's "the interview" hitting theaters after a lot of public debate. kate rogers is outside one of the independent theaters showing the controversial film. and just for disclosure, did you see it yet, kate? >> actually, i haven't tuned into it yet. we all know this was the hack heard around the world. and now "the interview" is going to see the light of day. independent movie theaters like the one behind me did rally behind the movie's release. of course the plot features a fictitious storyline to assassinate kim jong-un.

the stars did express their support on twitter speaking out over the weekend. rogan said i need to say that a comedy is best viewed in the theater full of people. so watch it like that or invite some friends over. rogan also thanked fans coming out to say thank you. even president obama got in the mix. he spoke out and he said he wished sony had contacted him before they decided to pull the plug on the movie. now some are showing it. we'll be here all day long letting you know viewer reactions. back over to you. >> i don't see anybody lining up there. >> we sure showed those north koreans they can't push us around. i don't know about the chemical weapons and all that in syria, but these guys we took a hard

stance with them. really. they're groveling to us. here to give us his take, senior media and film reporter. you saw it, didn't you? >> i have to confess, i did not. i was with my niece and nephew yesterday. they're 4 and 1, so a little younger than the target demo for "the interview." >> you were putting family first? >> i did put family before job, yes. >> brent, have you had anyone that you've talked to that said they really enjoyed it and they were rolling in the aisles? >> well, my cousin did text me yesterday to say that she went to bed after 20 minutes and we had a member of our staff watch it with his family. he said his father enjoyed it, gave it a b-plus. his mother ended up hitting the hay a little early. gave it a c-minus. mixed notices in the early going here. >> none of those sounded good. >> yeah. >> i don't think the film could live up to the hype to what came before it.

>> yeah. after it's all said and done, i wonder whether this is just a blip. i think it might be a blip, maybe. except it does show that if they could do it there -- and i'm not -- i don't care if they close down another movie. i care if they close down my power grid or my bank account. >> i think that's why you saw obama come out so strongly, you know, to say that sony had made a mistake. because he really wanted to be sure that this didn't set some sort of precedent. >> but look at all the companies that didn't want to touch this. >> that's kind of a weird thing to take a stand on, though, brent. as ukraine's gone. i don't know. i look at other things that have happened and, wow, we really won on this one. >> but look at all the companies that didn't want anything to do with it. netflix didn't want to go near it. >> he's making a point about the president. >> i understand. >> that's going to be your victory you won out on "the interview." >> what are the economics going to look like when this is all

over for sony? >> that's part of the problem, because this was a film that was made and produced and marketed as if it was going to be a major theatrical release that was going to go out on christmas day across 3,000 theaters. early numbers are suggesting it did about a million dollars yesterday which is a huge number for a film that's in just over 300 theaters. but it cost about $75 million to market and produce this movie. so there's going to be a cap on that. now, the split is nicer in terms of the distributor on the whole. usually about 75 a productive film maker gets 75% of the gross there opposed to about a 50/50 split with a theater company and the studio. but still there's a cap on what a film can do. you don't have amazon or apple.

it'll be interesting to see if sony actually releases what it's doing on those platforms. then there's all those ancillary revenues that are tied to box office performance. so this is a film that needed in order to make its money back, you know, to make well over a hundred million dollars. >> is it possible based on this one-day performance that some of the major theater chains will actually get brave and start to carry it? >> not according to my sources in those kpe biexhibition compa. they see it as an existential threat. and part of the problem, too, is there's a whole bunch of tension too. that he threw them under the bus when he did the cnn interview saying they had decided not to show the film.

they were saying we didn't say that. we never said we wouldn't show "the interview." we said we need a delay. we said we need to see if there really is a threat here. we're not the bad guys. and we're being painted as such. >> have you heard that before any of this happened, weren't the studios -- wasn't the studio worried about this movie with $75 million? i was only kidding that sony hacked itself to raise the awareness of this movie. but they must have known full well this was going to bomb and they were going to lose money. >> at least some of the leaked e-mails said there were concerns that the movie wasn't funny. that the movie was offensive. early tracking on the film was robust. it was going to be $25 million. >> quirky. and to make a full $75 million

movie out of a hey what if someone hired people to kill the guy in north korea. just to make a whole movie about it because of the quirky idea, i guess that's creativity in hollywood. that's what they do. but, i mean, in a wag the dog world or whatever it's called, i mean, that's not totally out of the question to -- hey, this is how we can get some -- i'm not saying that. but thank you, brent. >> i don't think they would do this over again just to promote a movie. terrible few weeks for them. >> i don't think so either. but north korea is saying let's jo d.o. a joint investigation. you don't believe that either? >> no. i don't. >> there's some indication it was inside sony. >> no. i believe it's north korea. >> you do? >> yeah. i think it's closer to that. but we'll see. >> maybe china. still to come in the meantime, let's make a deal in 2015. the m&a activity to watch.

and it's been a rough time for amazon. will 2014 go down as the time wall street finally ran out of patience with mr. bezos. check out the most clicked upon things on cnbc.com in tech predictions for the new year. gopro will go drone, we'll hear from josh on that. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates. ♪ (holiday mhey! is playing) i guess we're going to need a new santa ♪(the music builds to a climax.) more people are coming to audi than ever before. see why now is the best time. audi will cover your first month's payment

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as 2014 draws to a close, cnbc is breaking out the 2015 playbook. this year it's technology. here's josh lipton. >> consumers can never own enough gadgets. and tech companies will keep pushing their latest products to them in 2015. but not every tech toy will fly off the shelves. here are three predictions. first, the crowded market for wearables will get smaller. fitbit and jawbone are now household names. and the launch of apple watch next year will make a big splash in the wearable space. but is there a demand for so many products that often overlap? expect to see consolidation in this. jawbone, for example, is talked about as a takeout target. 2015 could be the year it gets bought.

second, gopro goes drone. the consumer drone market is blowing up. and gopro is taking notice. there are reports the camera maker will take the space. and it isn't denying them either. expect the camera maker to move into drones and drive demand for this hobby even higher. third, more trouble for tablets. tablets are under pressure as consumers opt for smartphones with bigger displays and so-called phablets. expect that pressure to continue in 2015 with a category suffering a slowdown. the exception? apple's ipads will best expectations as the tech titan stakes out a bigger roll in the enterprise space. >> thank you, josh, for that. 2014 of course was also the biggest year for deals this according to to stats from deal logic. still will 2015 be another

blockbuster one or will we see a dropoff? joining us now is eileen nougat. good morning. >> good morning. >> so i'm assuming we're going to have a bigger year next year than this year. is that the working assumption? >> seems on trend. it accelerated all over 2014. so hopefully that continues. >> are you of the view that m&a activity is a barometer of where the stock market is or confidence in the board room? >> i think in the last year it seems like it's just confidence in the board room. >> and is that confidence really a function of just the way the stock market is run? nobody does a deal when the markets are in the tank because people on the sell side usually think they're selling for too little. on the buy side they think they're paying too much. >> well, that's another way of saying confidence. if the market is strong you think it's a good time to do deals. but there's a lot of macroeconomic factors too.

there's a lot of cash. the credit markets are really strong. and, you know, when your competitors start to do deals, changes the competitive landscape. >> how much is driven by activism? >> i think activism is a catalyst for m&a activity, but i -- it's part of the fabric now. i don't think it really affects things. it changes the boardroom dynamics. but i think a lot of companies are already there and it depends on the companies. >> so joe was e-mailing with david tepper last week. >> right. >> and tepper said that 2015 was going to rhyme with 1999. if you remember 1999 from an m&a perspective -- you've had a lot of deals. i don't want to diminish the size of the deals, but we've had a couple of blockbusters. but 1999 was the year of the blockbuster. >> partying like 1999, right? >> do you think 1999 is going to

rhyme with 2015? >> i hope so. >> your bonus will be great. >> it would be a better thing. the one thing i would say that really encourages that is this is pretty constant. all throughout all markets, health care and pharma have been strong all year, oil and gas is picking up. tmt is picking up. i think pick public company targets being the -- >> the inversion craze, is it over yet? zb i don't think big cross border strategic deals are over. >> but a lot of those pharma deals and health care deals were driven or at least people were talking. there was a lot of chatter. people were talking at least about doing those deals because of the tax benefits. >> i really don't think you do huge deals like that because of tax benefits.

i think for a long time when cross border deals are done, they were done in a tax efficient way. i don't think that's changed. there are a lot of regular -- deals are great to do if you're in this industry because they're complex and there's always a lot of regulatory challenges. >> one of the deals we talked about the most around this table over the past year was the valeant transaction where you had an activist team teaming up with a strategic to go after an allergan. do you think we will see something like that again? was that the beginning of something? >> well, the facts were so unique, i don't think it can be a trend. but it was very well constructed. it was an interesting deal. even the losers made money to attract some people. >> legal? you're a lawyer. no, i'm asking. because there's still a fight going on in court over that transaction. >> if they had come to you,

would you tell them they could get away with it? >> actually, we are involved in that. we do represent valeant so i don't think i'll comment. but actually i will comment on the fact that as i said earlier, it was a very carefully planned out deal. the s.e.c. has been thinking about for a long tile. >> the ten-day rule that investors have ten days. and you think that number is going to come down. that could impact how powerful it is. >> i would have thought it would come down. it's taking a long time for the s.e.c. to make that decision. ten days seems like an eternity in this environment. >> and what should it be? >> that i don't know. if i was the commissioner, maybe i'd know that. >> the activists will tell you that shareholders and investors

have been the beneficiaries of their work. and that the ability of an activist to create a toe hold, gain a position, and have those 12 days to do it is meaningful. and therefore investors would lose. >> well, that's -- >> if i was bill ackman, that's what i would tell you right now. >> i've not heard him say it live. and i understand the argument, but you have to believe the outcome to support that argument. you have to believe that shareholders necessarily gain on all that. >> last question. spinoffs. we've had a huge number of spinoffs at the same time we've had a lot of m&a activity. usually don't happen at the same time the way they have thus far. do you see more of that? >> i think so. but that's the result of strategic changes. in other words, it's always been true and there seem to be trends

before everyone buys and sells. you've written about this. and what's interesting now i think is that the pace of change is much quicker. and so people spinoffs in the right circumstance make a lot of sense. people are doing them. >> happy holidays. thank you for coming in. >> thank you. coming up, we'll get the national forecast from our friend the weather channel. what will keith be wearing today? that's a good tease. "squawk box" will be right back. . what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

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welcome back. keith, we do have a hard break coming up. let's just see. okay. i can see it there. joins us from the weather channel dpp you hear me tease you? i said we're going to do that every day. what is keith wearing. it's like where is matt lauer. what is keith wearing. >> it's a tease. if it gets people to watch. today's conservative though. pretty straightforward. >> that shirt is conservative. >> he thinks that's conservative. that's amazing, isn't it? you're young. >> yeah. let's do weather. let's talk about what's going on. eastern seaboard. look how quiet it is. i showed you this to show you it's nice and pleasant. this day after christmas a lot of people get out and have gift

cards they want or don't want, but they'll use them. the one spot that will be wet this weekend will be starting across the southeast through saturday. then sunshine moves into parts of the carolinas. nothing like the severe weather we saw a couple days ago. but some heavy rain in there. starting in houston, jackson, new orleans, mobile, and then moving into saturday and sunday. it's going to be heavy rain here. but again the ingredients aren't really there for any substantial severe weather. one thing that strikes me about this is the rain gets in on sunday. this is basically on all-rain event. real quick before i let you go, cold air will be coming back to the eastern seaboard. it looks like around new year's eve, cold weather coming back. >> i'm loving 45, 50 degrees. >> sorry about that. >> thank you. good to see you. he was outside the other day. i saw him out reporting in the field. coming up next, the dow riding a six-day earning streak.

>> i saw him too. wearing an ll bean coat. >> will the good times roll for the rest of the year? our market watchers at the ready to give us their take. plus it has been a year of -- t. t. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

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in the headlines at this hour, the centers for disease control is monitoring one of its lab technicians for possible exposure to ebola. the cdc says the technician may have come in contact with a small amount of live virus that was part of an experiment. and being monitored for symptoms. that's a new twist on the whole idea, isn't it? >> like a self-inflicted -- >> not a person-to-person -- and saudi arabia is planning to increase state spending in 2015 despite this year's drop in oil prices. the finance minister says the kingdom has the ability to withstand lower oil prices for three to five years. hopefully they've heard of a rainy day, you know? >> they have a huge rainy day fund. it's like $700 billion.

>> they've been doing well for 30 years. from a desert from nomads. >> they subsidize everything. >> exactly. the parent of subaru has scrapped the plan to shift more manufacturing to the u.s. they plan to make the new model in indiana but instead they'll do it in japan due to capacity constraints at the facility it has in this country at this point. this week we're looking ahead to the new year giving investors a playbook on how to invest in 2015. up next steve leisman. but first let's see how he faired with his picks for 2014. steve predicted we'd see synchronized global growth in 2014. strike one. things look goods in the u.s., but pretty dismal abroad specifically in europe. steve also said the fed would end qe in 2014 as scheduled.

got that right. and then finally steve predicted that inflation could become a real concern this year. i don't know. steve was wrong there. bad for him, good for us. it depends on the country. oh, he thought it was going to get too high. oh. that was wrong. >> and also, everybody thought rates would be higher and the 10-year would be at 3%. >> so what is steve predicting in 2015? here's a look. >> 2015 will be a year with big central banks around the world pulling in opposite directions. but hopefully their economies all going the same way. that is, up. u.s. federal reserve looks likely to hike interest rates. it will be the first hike in nine years and look for it around the summer. but the fed won't be aggressive. they could end the year just up

1% in the current level of zero. look for the european central bank to launch an outright quantitative easing program where it buys sovereign bonds. this should help at least stabilize the eurozone economies if not help propel some growth. the positive effects of lower oil prices should offset the marginally negative effects of higher rates and then some. >> wage growth should finally come. in what will become one of the biggest stories in 2015, wages should rise meaningfully and the middle class should field the positive effects of the post-crisis recovery. let's get back to the markets at this hour. what are stocks going to do for this rest of this year? and then what about next year? we'll get another couple of opinions on that. joining us now steve sachs and

covering the economic angle joshua fineman. josh, that 5% number, was it -- you know, when companies report earnings we always talk about the quality of the earnings about whether it was real. was there anything weird about that 5%? or does it really indicate that we're well above 3% as far as where we're trending? >> i don't know if we should take the 5% at face value. i think when you average over the last year and a half, growth has been about 3%. and that's reasonable for the underlying trend. and it's a lot better than in the recovery when we were running about 2%. thang 3% maybe is likely to continue in 2015. i think the basic reason is we've reduced a lot of the head

winds that were holding us back early on. housing overhang, household balance sheets repaired, government isn't cutting back anymore. then we've got the lower oil prices. i think the outlook is bright. >> did you see any of the scuttlebutt with obamacare and you recognized certain expenses of revenue, it played into this? that it was kind of a kitchen sinks quarter in the first quarter with the negative one. then they brought it back to boost it this time? did you see that? is that true? >> there are elements of a number of things that happened. we had the bad weather in the first quarter. we had some difficulty with assessing and calibrating some of the health care expenditures. i think it was too negative in q1 and it was paid back for that in q 2, q3. i think that's why averaging that gives you a better sense. it's not five, but it wasn't negative two in q1 either. i think maybe three, maybe a shade more is what we're going to be doing.

>> we get one 5% read. and i see a lot of mainstream media saying that the entire sort of zeitgeist before the election was wrong. that all these people were wrong feeling bad about the economy when in fact they should have been feeling good about the economy. and people are bragging. it's the best quarter in nine, ten years or whatever for gdp growth. 5.8%. suddenly we didn't know how good we all felt. >> yeah, right. you don't want to hang your hat on one single quarter. these numbers fluctuate a lot. so things are doing better. i think the economy's got better underlying momentum. i expect that to carry into the new year. so we should be celebrating that. that's the good news. but don't get carried away with one particular number. >> so you could say that the market was anticipating this. it wasn't all just qe and moving

people up. >> i think a couple things played into that. we also look at it relative to other developed markets all over the world. we've had better gdp growth and earnings growth. we've been a better performing market. the beneficiary flows into u.s. equities in particular. we've got a bit of a boost from that as well. i think ultimately that probably continues in the first half of 2015 until europe in particular finds its footing and something's done there. >> so steve, you think that any gie gains we get next year come from earnings going up or going up a little. what's the dynamic going to be? >> i think it's a confluence of

things. i think at the end of the day, clearly earnings revisions going higher to the conversation just a minute ago, gdp growth. i think at the end of the day, the 5% number, you take one number with a grain of salt. but end of the day, long-term gdp growth over the last couple years, if we could say in the range of 3%, you could talk about a revision in earnings up not down. you talk about balance sheets continuing to improve. so i think ultimately the real drivers for next year are not only pe expansion and the earnings expansion, but the fed is clearly going to be a story. clearly the effects of interest rates over the first part of next year will be minimal in oil to your point. keep in mind that there's been a lot of discussion over the past few weeks about what higher oil prices mean. it means good things for you and i. right? it is effectively a reduction of a tax, if you will, from the

consumer perspective. i think that's a positive throughout most of next year. >> good things for you and me. >> yes. >> so at this point, let's say you're an allocator. anything in cash? do you sell all your bonds? what do you do? >> keep in mind that, you know, investors in fixed income have a very difficult time selling that allocation. right? they need the income which is ultimately another big theme that we see playing out over the next couple years. how do investors protect that fixed income portion of their portfolio. i think at the end of the day depending what your risk tolerance is, you want to have more expose sure to not just domestic equities but fixed income. you either need a lower

allocation in that space or find ways to hedge that exposure. >> unless they don't go back down. do we end the year at 220 on the 10-year? >> i think a little bit higher, but not a whole lot. i think the u.s. outlook is brightening, but i think inflation is going to stay low. i think they're going to be pretty gradual. and you think the global situation will put downward pressure on u.s. rates. >> yeah. and it's the internet or twitter or something. >> you mean me 10-year yield? >> yeah. everybody knows where their right now. so i don't know if -- it wasn't quite as obvious. >> without the internet? >> just with all this information. we've got so much information everywhere. don't you look and see italy and spain are below us. that makes 3% hard to understand. >> because of their inflation

rate. >> i know. but what about their ability to pay back the bondholder some day? >> mario draghi says he's going to do whatever it tax. >> okay, josh and steve, thank you both. >> good to be here. >> happy new year. coming up, we're going to check the holiday retail score card. that's next. and later if you're headed to the mall today to return gifts or to redeem gift cards you aren't alone. dominic chu as he told us will join us from one of the heaviest trafficked days of the year. he's in a mall in jersey city. god bless him. y bank 24/7, but there are no branches? 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

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from the bank where no branches equals great rates. welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now continue to show some gains. wow. that is, i think, wasn't it right where it was? 59. i think it was 59 last time. that was an hour ago. probably a bit of thin trading. the s&p indicated up seven. and the nasdaq indicated up 16 points. i'm gratified that it's back to where it is, the nasdaq. there were many times i thought it never would. >> to this level? >> yes. >> the reapproach to whatever.

it felt very japan-like for so long, didn't it? >> it did. and now if we went back and checked at 5,000 last time what the pe was and checked it at this time, it might actually have underpinnings. because last time -- >> not eyeballs? >> last time it was pets.com with the sock puppet. >> it was a great add though, wasn't it? >> pets.com was the funniest. >> you need more than ads. >> you do. that is great analysis. we need more than ads. >> i've been doing this a long time. >> i worry when they start delivering things within an hour. what were the two companies back in 1999 that would run around new york city and all over the world. urban fetch and another one with the "k.." >> i don't remember. >> and that's also when you get a little worried. but maybe we're in a different age now. >> all right. that's my -- i'm sorry.

it's my necklace. >> why is it making that sound? is that the necklace. >> yeah, the necklace. nothing you can do about it. >> they're supposed to give you longer ones. >> what happened? >> i don't know. they didn't -- i don't want to talk about that. speaking of one-hour delivery, amazon.com's recent push into the one-hour delivery space may bring it some advantages, but the behemoth could be facing a head wind soon. one saying the worst is yet to com. it's not good news for investors who had a rough 2014 year in amazon. joining us now is sucharita. good to have you here. >> thank you. >> if you look at a 20-year of amazon, 2014 stops it in its

tracks. do you think 2015 is just as bad? >> i think there are significant channels ahead. amazon had weak quarters the last couple of quarters. and q4 last year was challenged and a lot of the same issues particularly with deliveries and the amount of volume they were able to get to consumers on time. a lot of that is going to repeat itself most likely this quarter as well. >> bottom line it seems investors for years have been willing to accept they'll keep investing in the business, not worry about the margins, not worry about profitability. just worry about the momentum of the stock. did the psychology of the amazon investor fundamentally change this year? >> i think what had happened was there were a few quarters where it seemed like there were either new announcements, like for instance last year i think even

though the q4 wasn't that great that remember that was the drone announcement. and then they keep pulling other announcements out of the hat that seem to reposition amazon as different from a retail company. i think that was really when the company made an enormous turnaround from the stock standpoint. and i think that the economics that have continued to show itself in 2014 have really exposed that this is at best an unprofitable or difficult to compete with retail company. and to consider it a technology company is something that may be a bit misguided especially if you're going to compare it to other players like google or apple or facebook. >> let's bring up that one-year chart again. there's some technical analyst who is look at it and say below 300 bucks, this would get interesting just in terms of a

short-term trade or it's a good entry port for the stock historically. >> well, the truth is that amazon -- the main thing is that its earnings have been so challenged over time. and the hope is, i think, for a lot of investors is they had one quarter in its history where its earnings were about 8% of net income. and the hope is they can go back to that level at some point in time. but the truth is that they've hovered at low, low single digits if not negative territory in recent quarters. and there is really no sign that it's going to turn any time soon. because they still have expenses that they have to deal with in particular with respect to managing the growth of amazon prime. >> let me ask you about amazon prime. we were just talking about before you came on, we were talking about this every hour.

amazon now. $7.99. but it's in an hour. didn't that remind you of -- >> kozmo. >> yes. good sign or bad sign basically? >> i think there are a number of companies that are playing in, you know, kind of this short delivery time frame. google's in this space. there are a bunch of bc start-ups in this space. the challenge with same-day delivery is that it is expensive. it is labor intensive. it's expensive to do. and most consumers aren't ready or interested in paying for it. we did a survey on it. 50% of consumers don't want to pay more than $4 for the service. it's hard to make that profitable at $4 unless you can do ten deliveries an hour. and that gets to be a challenge.

at best it's something that can work in the urban markets. but the truth is -- >> it's not something you can do nationwide, right? >> exactly. and it's only for a limited number of items too. it's not as if you can deliver 20 million amazon items within an hour. >> how important is it that they do that? and is this really a play on creating a logistics company? one of the things i wonder is we're looking at it as a product and whether long-term they're thinking actually this isn't that at all. this is a way for us to get a distribution platform for all of our customers in these major cities. >> well, it's an interesting thesis. i think there has been kind of some thoughts that amazon really is about logistics. my concern would be kind of the place to create a logistics company isn't a courier network. it's probably more in competing with the shipping carriers like u.p.s. or fedex.

they have a sturdy distribution network. and they have capacity to manage that third party logistics piece of sorting, picking, packing. that last mile component is definitely going to be a challenge for them as it is for everyone. i mean, there's a reason u.p.s. and fedex outsource to the postal service. that last mile piece is one of the hardest pieces to do cost effectively. >> you live in charlotte? >> i live in charlotte. >> beautiful. are you a tarheel? >> well, i guess. well, that -- i guess so. i'm not native to north carolina. >> got it. okay. good to see you. >> happy holidays. >> thanks. coming up when we return, stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell. plus why a great french fry air lift will mean relief for japan in january. we'll tell you about that story when we return. [sound of crickets] brii,brii,brii

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a follow-up to a story we told you about earlier this week. mcdonald's now saying an emergency air lift has been alleviating the french fry shortage in japan. the company is ending its self-imposed ration at more than 3,000 restaurants in japan as of january 5th. so they will no longer restrict customers to small sized orders. japan's french fry supply had been disrupted by labor disputes on the west coast. and we said these are the best french fries in the world.

mcdonald's, right? i've never had better french fries, i don't think. actually i like the burger king french fries. >> and that study on salt was big. >> that it's not so bad for you and it can actually be helpful. >> in a decade from now will they undo that? >> who knows. like red meat and everything else. i think anything in moderation. you know? but the salt -- >> on the french fries it's crucial. >> i like salt with everything. >> exercise and run what you need. >> i dip any franchise in mayonnaise and mustard. >> ooh, that's weird. >> yeah. and i'm not sure that is coming onto the -- nobody's telling you the mayo is good for you. >> i think eggs are great. cheap form of protein. >> it should be olive oil and mayo. >> more when we return. the post-christmas shopping rush, our dom chu is at a mall.

plus a look at the winners and losers of the year. and "the interview" at the theaters who chose to show it. but is it safe to stream? we're back in a moment. 24/7 it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

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"the interview" draws crowds at theaters including surprise guests. >> if it wasn't for you guys this literally would not be [ muted ] happening right now. >> but it is safe to stream into your home? plus a hack attack on video game networks. grinchy hackers taking on online services. and then holiday shopping rush isn't over. dom chu joins us on the heavy return and gift card redemptions. the "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box," here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen with andrew ross

sorkin and michelle caruso-cabrera. >> i believe she's going to return to us after the year. >> i think you are right. all right. we will carry on and for those who unwrapped new gaming consoles yesterday morning, there were plenty of disappointment in the performance of the online services. hackers attacked both microsoft's xbox live and sony's playstation network on wednesday evening and made it difficult or impossible for users to play online. a group known as the lizard squad claimed responsibility for the denial of service attacks. and we'll talk to a cyber security expert in about ten minutes. >> john herring. he's fantastic. among the stories we're hearing this morning, the film "the interview" drawing crowds at 301 independent theaters that chose to screen it. reporting ticket sales later

today. . we'll have a live report from hallie jackson in just a bit on that. and the average expectation of 15 trop strategists is that stocks will rise 6.6% next year. we'll have more on that. and vladimir putin scrapping new year's holidays for governor ministers. yesterday he said cabinet ministers, quote, can't afford to go on break. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. the futures right now suggesting we're going to have a positive open. the s&p would open higher by six. the dow would open higher by more than 58 points and the nasdaq by 15. europe markets closed today. a lot of markets in the world are closed. but let's see how asia traded overnight. hong kong market remains closed

today. moving to retail, christmas is over but today is expected to be one of the busiest shopping days of the year. dom chu joins us from the newport center mall in jersey city, new jersey? dom? >> the reason we're here is because we're waiting to see whether shoppers turn out for what's already been a relatively strong holiday shopping season. if you look at interesting stats here, retail firm shopper track says today the day after christmas is actually on average the fourth busiest shopping day in the entire month of december. and it's also the sixth busiest shopping day of the entire year. so it's 8:00 a.m. here in jersey city. a lot of these stores have been open since 7:00 already including teen retailers like american eagle, also a victoria's secret above me here. there is some traffic flowing there through, but we haven't seen a huge rush yet. what it comes down to for shoppers is whether or not they want to come out and spend even

more money. remember, we've spoken so much about this idea that gas savings have contributed a lot to the holiday season. we'll see whether or not this mall here in jersey city which is owned by simon property group has a million square feet of shops. whether or not these shoppers come here to this mall and spend that hard-earned money. right now traffic is light, but we've got canchor stores here like kohl's, macy's, jcpenney as well. we'll see if the momentum carries into the morning. >> there's a special place in heaven for the reporter who gets stuck at the mall super early in the morning on the day after christmas. you're inside at least. poor kate covering "the interview" release, she's outside. >> he's doing a silent protest with that sweater, i would say. i mean, are you mad at the viewers? >> is it bright? >> did you join the sorkins

sweater of the month club? did they send that to you? >> we do that sweater. that's our december sweater. >> it's the gift that keeps on giving. >> it is. i just wanted to make my mark. >> wow. >> i wanted to make my mark. >> yeah. one of our best sweaters. >> you should see what was worn on wednesday. >> when i'm out, he goes crazy. >> he wore a christmas shirt in red and green plaid. >> it was something. >> it was so bad. >> i haven't seen it. >> i got an e-mail. >> andrew pulls off lumber jack chic pretty well. >> finally. a different boss than me. which boss -- >> a male boss. >> wow. we got to talk. >> dom, you look great. >> you do. i'm kidding, dom. >> thank you, guys. appreciate it. with christmas officially behind us -- he's going to be at

the mall all next week. let's get a look at winners and losers in retail this week. joe feldman is here and paul swinnen. is this the time, guys? you can both deal with this. joe, you first. do we finally see the bifurcated industry where some are doing well. is that finally going to close with the gas prices and consumer getting better? >> it does seem like trends on the lower end. i think the walmarts and targets of the world did pretty well this holiday season. the dollar stores have actually done well through this period. and so i think you are seeing that gap narrow a little bit. we're hoping it will. >> what do you think, paul? >> if i could add in there, i would say that the middle is starting to finally do better.

but the actual low end hasn't filled in the gap yet. but it's the outlook that's weighing on people. i'd also point out the savings rate was actually revised lower november. one of the things that counts for the low end is borrowings and savings. and there's still some upside. >> so you guys have favorites, joe? >> well, yeah. i mean, right now i think best buy is well positioned for this holiday season and heading into next year. we should start to see sales trends do better. still a big fan of the home space. home depot and lowe's i think will have big years next year. so those are a couple we like. >> if i were you i wouldn't even talk teen apparel. i'd hire someone to cover that. because i have no idea. and i see you did that. you gave me electronics and home improvement.

can you weigh in often apparel at all? is that dana? >> that's dana. give it to somebody else like you said. >> all right. i'm going to leave you -- let you escape that one. how about you, paul? >> thank you. >> well, joe, you and i have talked about nike before. they do have some really hot products this holiday. however, i'm also seeing some extra inventory in the off-price channels. other analysts like off price. i like adidas on a turnaround. they're going to do terrible in russia right now. but i'm feeling like the hotness of nike and some of the stars right now are actually going to reverse in 2015. the stock's expensive. i'm going with adidas. i also like coach a little bit. right now the stores have been eerily quiet for the holidays. they did get some more traffic, but not as much as they'd like. i think it's going to be a longer turnaround but in the

long run they'll do more with that one because it's undervalued right now. >> neither one of you would buy the retail index and say it's time gas prices go long. >> yeah. i think retail has, you know, a decent outlook for next year. the way the economy is setting up right now, the employment picture is better. and that's really a big driver of it. plus the first half of the year you have this tail wind. so i think the first half could look solid for the retailers. >> paul, you do the same thing? >> yeah, you know, it was interesting. i was watching the worldwide exchange when i was getti intin dressed and the defense is up more than the cyclical. although the stocks have run up in anticipation of the consumer turnaround. i think it's not terribly expensive. some are rich and some are less. kohl's is at my fair value. but in general there's still some room to run in the cyclical

sector because of the way the market's played this defensive sector. >> joe, real quick, do you cover radio shack? >> i don't cover radio shack. but there's a lot going on there, for sure. >> there's a lot going. . i was curious given the olympics market you do focus on, is there a way for radio shack to come back? >> i think it's going to be very tough. i think -- they missed it years ago when they gave up verizon service in their stores. ever since then it's been a downward spiral. things are looking tough for those guys. >> looks like there's going to be a big rework there. they have too many stores and creditors are coming in and vultures are there. the question is are they a vulture. you're only a vulture if you're getting something. >> appreciate it. see you later. happy new year. coming up when we return, the sony's film "the interview"

drawing crowds at theaters that chose to screen it. but should those who prefer to stream it at home be concerned at all about the cyber security issues? we'll talk to a security expert next. and later the effect of oil's slide on state budgets. how ceos are helping cities and some winners and losers the the video game industry. d here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.

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sony's controversial movie "the interview" drawing big crowds at the theaters that chose to show it. nbc's hallie joox joackson join with more on this. >> we're looking at box office numbers that could be available soon after the soldout crowds were reported at these smaller independent theaters across the country. many think it will earn just a fraction what the top grossing movies got because it played in just a fraction of the theaters. the fact the movie is streaming online could eat into the big screen profits. it was number one this morning on google play, youtube movies.

it's almost precedented it's available online and in theaters at the same time. so the movie industry is watching to see will this set a new standard in hollywood? or is "the interviinterview" ju one-time thing? should note that sony which is owning playstation and which made the movie is dealing with outages on its gaming system this morning as is xbox live. no indication that issue is related to the original cyber attack against sony, but we are watching it today. i don't know if you spent your christmas watching the movie, but what'd you think? >> we have not. have you seen the movie? >> so it's funny in parts. it is stupid in parts as you might expect. it's no "citizen kane." it's not winning aoscars. people seem to like it coming out yesterday. >> it is what it is isn't a good endorsement. >> did you see it in the theater? i'm told it may be funnier with other people around. i wonder if this movie works when you're at home streaming

it. >> when you're at home alone in the dark. every movie is better when there's other people around you. >> that's a no. you saw it at home, it sounds like? >> like a loner in the office actually. even more sad. >> even worse. >> giggling to myself. >> would any movie be good at the office? >> joe, you thought some people wanted their money back. >> oh, yeah. >> some people walked out and said it was the best christmas they've had because of the movie. >> i know. you get a lot of sun out there. >> and it's the movie industry town. >> that's true. everybody's connected somehow. >> if you're not stuck in traffic somewhere for three hours, it's like -- >> i know. i know. >> if you're not sitting in traffic, it's like it doesn't matter -- you could watch a test pattern and say it's good.

c-span, it's good. >> thank you. happy holidays. >> you know what would have made life easier? waze. new surface streets instead of being afraid to get off of them because i didn't know whether to go. it would have changed my life. and i was out there, and you go back -- you do totally different routes. you think you got to take the 10 to the 405 to the pasadena. if you can go surface streets, it's a whole different -- >> but you were too afraid? that doesn't sound like you. >> because you don't know where you're going. you get out a map or something? in the old days. you know how men read maps. >> we're going to get to one of our favorites. this guy's a tech guru. he can help you with his own map. who can answer this question. should the folks who are downloading this movie at all worry about whether they're going to be vulnerable or the companies who are partnering

with sony are at risk. john herring, the executive chairman of mobile security company lookout. good morning to you. >> good morning. thank you for joining us on the newsline. if you could -- let's start not at home but let's start with the companies like microsoft and google parent company that have taken this on to stream this service. do you think they have taken on a risk at all and is it an undue risk? >> i think it's unclear whether there's any additional risk for them related to the film. because we don't have any direct evidence yet that the film is directly linked to kind of the issue at hand in terms of the hacking. what we do know is sony was hacked. they were hacked in a way that was definitely a game changer in terms of the way the information was compromised. and that is meaningful. it's unclear if that's going to have an effect. >> if i was a tech company, or if i was tim cook and i called

you to advise me, i'd say i got a call from sony he wants me to stream this on my service. do you think i could being susceptible or more likely to be attacked and what are the implications, you would tell them what? >> i would say i think it's unlikely that they're going to be exposed to any additional risk itself from streaming this film in particular. but what i would say is the stakes have changed and cyber security needs to be an important level issue. >> and in terms of rethinking it, what would you recommend in that context? >> i think that we need to take a bottom up look at what our infrastructure holds. you know, i think we've seen many different attacks with home depot and target. 2014 has been the year of the data breach. with sony we've seen that kind of fundamentals of the insides of a corporate infrastructure being compromised down to the

core. things of that nature. >> when we teased the segment, we said are you safe at home? and are referring to those who may stream them themselves. you don't put google or microsoft at risk for taking this on, little me at home shouldn't worry either. >> that's right. if you're downloading from reputable sites, you should be fine. >> right. i don't know if you saw the news in the past 24 hours appears had a little bit of trouble getting into xbox. those are issue there is. seems unrelated to north korea? >> yeah. i think it's very hard to say.

attribution is a big problem. >> what do you make of the attribution? >> i'm not saying they're wrong, but if you look at it, the evidence is circumstantial at that. if you look at things related and to other malware look different. so i think it was a bit premature to go ahead and say these were directly related to north korea. we just don't have the evidence yet. and in cyber security, it's very challenging. hackers share code. there's a host of things. so it's very -- it's unlikely we'll see -- >> just so i understand it, when people say this is a sophisticated attack, does that mean you have very sophisticated people doing this or does that mean it requires a certain

complex sr complex servers and tower. >> the malware itself wasn't completely ground breaking, ton honest with you. i think it showed a level. but once the infrastructure, that kind of a network was compromised there was a folder on, of the administrators machines with passwords. that's just not smart. >> whether or not korea has been -- north korea have -- what do we know about north korea's ability to do this kind of thing. do they have the ability? other than the scale of servers and people to do it? >> well, i can't comment because i don't have direct knowledge. what i'll tell you is i think it's safe to assume that every

major government around the world is -- either has or is developing cyber security or cyber warfare capabilities. >> i'm glad you're a -- happy holidays. great to talk to you this morning. >> great to talk to you. coming up, kwhie an american city is suing a south america oil company. and later, speaking of oil and the drop, it is taking a toll now on state budgets. scott cohen will tell us which states are in the most pain. we'll have that when we return. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're getting a lot of questions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 about organic food stocks. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] sharpen your instincts tdd# 1-800-345-2550 with in-depth analysis by schwab experts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and if you want to run your idea tdd# 1-800-345-2550 by a schwab trading specialist, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 our expertise is just a tap away. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 what's on your mind, lisa? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'd like to talk about a trade idea. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 let's hear it.

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this was by far the fastest year in my life. and the great maggie smith says you know you're getting old when you feel like you have breakfast every hour. that's what i feel like now. my daughter is a year older. >> happy birthday, blake. >> and we've been watching. >> cut that off right there. don't show anybody -- yeah, okay. yeah. we've been watching "sound of music" and crying. but she is 15 going on 16. today. wow. >> she going to drive a car now? >> there are so many things that i just want to say no, you're not going to do right now. that's probably on the list. >> do you allow her to date?

>> we would let her -- you know, everything when -- >> do you have a shotgun for when they show up? >> everything else about raising a teenage girl. and a son that's going to be a teenage. but happy birthday. love you. and it does give you a reason as you know now to get old. that's your reason to get old. you don't mind the years passing because that has to happen. she's great. so is my son. and so my wife. so it everybody. so are you. >> it's like an oscars speech. tough get everybody in. >> and mark hoffman. steve burke. pat philly. >> there you have it. you caught everybody. you got to put your agent in there. ari. who else? >> david cohen is a heck o after guy. >> anybody else? >> the producers of the show. >> okay, yeah. the producers of the show. coming up, low price of oil seen as a boost for consumers,

but what about states right here in the united states that depend on energy for revenue? scott cohen is going to take a look at the ripple effects of the drop in crude. next. that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. appointment when my teethntist are ready? [girl] can it tell the doctor how long i have to wear this thing? [man] can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver?

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welcome back to "squawk box." here's what's making headlines this morning as we look ahead to the friday session on wall street, a gain by the dow today could be its seventh straight. that would be the longest winning streak since march of 2013. now that holiday shopping is over, by the way, u.p.s. bracing for returns. it says it expects to return 4 million packages by the end of january's first full week. i got to do some returns. returns will peak on january 6th. crazy. the drop in oil prices have garnered the bulk of the attention. below the $3 mark for the first time since 2012. the plunging is being felt in different states.

scott cohen puts together our top states for business every year. he's been crunching some numbers. he joins us from silicon valley of all places. scott? >> good morning, michelle. we'll be really crunching numbers starting next month. but in this instance with the issues of the price of oil, here in california is a good place to start the exercise. we get the good and bad of lower prices out here. this is one of the top five oil producing states in the country. lower prices means lower revenue. but it's a good consumer centered economy. and in that regarding with lower price at the pump should help. state planners went in forecasting $105 a barrel crude oil. the budget gap three and a half billion dollars and counting. moody's just slapped a negative outlook on the normally pristine

credit. >> alaska unlike any other state is exposed to changes in oil prices. nearly 90% of its general fund budget comes from oil and gas severance taxes more than any other state. >> now, alaska is the only state thus far to have its credit dinged. but these are the other states that rely heavily on oil and gas taxes. there's new mexico, 19% of state revenues there come from oil and gas. north dakota at 6%. and texas is the big wild card at 8% of revenues. there's lots of talk these days that texas has diversified its economy since the last oil shock. jpmorgan chase is warning they could slip into recession. which states win? any state that relies heavily on consumer spending. these are the states that depend the most of sales tax. nevada, south dakota, and

florida get more than half their revenue from sales taxes and tennessee close to half. so if people are taking their gas money and spending it elsewhere and that's still a big if, we should see it in the tax receipts soon. that is not happening yet, but the immediate neg stif impact on some of the states is profound. >> we talked about it so much in geopolitical terms globally. but states, similar impacts. there's winners and losers. thanks, scott. a couple stories we're following also related to oil. providence, rhode island, is suing petrobas for bonds kickback and bribery scheme. huge allegations that have torn apart the company. and then a letter from a political prisoner in a venezuelan jail. we've had him on cnbc many times in the past. he talks about the country's economic collapse not blaming it

on oil prices or the debt levels but the government. he writes in part, the lives of venezuelans especially the poor are worse by every measure. inflation at more than 60% is rampant. violence is skyrocketing. the current president of the country put him in jail earlier this year and it's been pretty tough on him and his family as we watch that whole country -- you were away, i think. there's an investor in latin america who i speak with frequently who says venezuela likely to become the somalia of latin-america. >> christmas dinners, once again you always have the discussions can. someone told me that bernie sanders was a great candidate. we've tried capitalism. we just haven't tried socialism. >> how can he say that? >> i said what about cuba and venezuela? and there's still the notion that when it's been tried other places it wasn't tried the right way. that if you do it the right way

it could work. >> argentina, famous for telling multiple people the only reason the soviet union failed, they didn't have the right software. >> right. >> come on. >> it's every 30, 40, 50 years we need another someone to come along. you know, maybe it's our buddy from aie. >> arthur brooks. >> i like him a lot. >> i know. but we need someone to bring us back to reality. coming up, how ceos are fixes america. the closer look at the development and city politics. and make sure you tune in on monday. our guest host will be economist and chess master ken rogoff. that'll be fun on monday. y has o hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

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how can ceos change the profile of struggling cities? our next guest says by establishing coalitions with business and political communities and most importantly appealing to a highly educated millennial workforce, here with us now sam williams. he's the author of the ceo as urban statesman. he's also a professor at georgia state university. also the former ceo of atlanta's chamber of commerce. i'm trying to -- i think -- would ceos make good mayors? would mayors make a good ceo? >> it's a different environment. but they're complementary of each other.

i think there are cities where great complementaries, great things happen. >> i'd take one of them every day before senator, i would think. don't need a consensus builder that's trying. i don't know. people need compromise, but you need someone who's run something, don't you? >> well, you need problem solvers. i think today's metro cities are so big and so complex economically, politically, and socially. they're also the drivers of our economy. i think ceos have a unique situation where if you find an issue that's at a tipping point that i found in the book, they can step in and help form coalitions in partnership with government. they can't do it alone. >> all politics are local too. and if you can get -- i mean, the local tax environment is something that makes a difference in a municipality. or the local education system. if you can get -- aren't technical colleges flourishing

in cities? that's what we need around the country because there are jobs going unfilled because we aren't training people correctly. >> they fill that gap. all young people are not going to go through four-year colleges, but technical colleges are very good entrances particularly into the technology and medical world. >> as you say, it should be in conjunction or could be in conjunction with politicians in local government. >> well, local government people tend to look at two and four years because that's the next election. ceos and business leaders can take a longer term view and can provide air cover, if you will, for elected officials who'd like to do something. but they don't want to offend their constituents. >> don't you think a lot view it as the enemy though? and their constituents do. and if they work together to embrace them that could lead to somebody thinking they may not get re-elected. >> i think you have to make sure you're choosing a business leader who doesn't have built-in conflicts of interest or something personal to gain out

of the issue. i think that's a good question. and once you do that, i think you can get people at the table from different points of view with some backup. these are consultants or others to fix the issues. and then boil it down to come up with actionable solutions. >> where are we in the move either out of cities and back into cities? >> we're very much into cities. 80% of the population of the u.s. within the next 20 years is going to li in a metro area. >> not all metro areas are created equal. >> no, they're not. but the top 20 metro areas really drive this nation's economy. not states. >> when you say the metro area, living, for example, you know around here in new jersey, this would be a metro area to you. when people say we're moving into the cities, they think of into a city like chicago. >> it's a metro area. metro areas are sometimes a hundred miles across but they have a common economic connection to each other.

>> so the main -- who are you trying to talk to here? ceos or mayors? >> both. what we're really trying to say is regional big cities are sometimes in a political gridlock around critical issues to do with health care, infrastructure, and chasing technology companies. because technology companies are now the golden standard for any city. but those are going to go where the workers are, where the young highly educated workforce is. and that's what mayors and business leaders have to pay attention to when city building. cities don't stay in an equilibri equilibrium. they're either growing in success or declining. so the technology companies are saying if you want us to move there, it's not just financial incentives. it's can you lure the workforce? and as we know the millennials are finicky.

they'll go to a city that offers them quality of life, access to a college, the kind of atmosphere that they want, that are tolerant. that's where technology companies are going. >> it would be nice if the cities had enough money to do these things and weren't underwater with pension obligations and everything else. >> because they're not paying the millennials. they can't because they're paying older generations. >> that's right. >> i think technology companies are looking to that environment, where will they go? what we're seeing is they're migrating to cities that really pay attention to walkable, livable communities that are connected to research universities, emerging cities. we've seen that in austin, for example. >> great city. >> and we've seen that in seattle. on the other hand we've seen some older cities that have neglected that quality of life and that cost of living. cost of living is a great big factor here. older cities like boston and san diego who had it are beginning

to lose that and other cities are anxious to seize that opportunity. and business leaders, i think, can have a big role in helping elected officials get there. >> san diego screwed it up. they deserved it. how could they possibly screw that up? we appreciate having you on. >> thank you. from call of duty to madden, how did video games fair this holiday season? plus it's been a year of rumbling and bumbling. we'll take a look back at the highs and the very lows of the year. we're back in a moment. 's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there are24/7branches? it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do...

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welcome back to "squawk box." activism by cleaning up this holiday season with some of the toll selling video game titles. here to tell us about the hits here to tell us about the hits and some of the misses in gaming

hey what are you doing? here to tell us about the hits and some of the misses in gaming i was thinking about taking this speed test from comcast business. oh yeah? if they can't give us faster internet or save us money, they'll give us 150 bucks. sounds like a win win. guys! faster internet? i have never been on the internet and i am doing pretty well. does he even work here? don't listen to the naysayer. take the comcast business speed test. get faster speeds or more savings, or we'll give you $150. comcast business. built for business. i have to admit this is one area -- gaming, i just don't -- is it like software generally where people do upgrades? >> people do upgrades, but usually you've bought the package and the physical disk so it's hard to go back and fix some of these things. but over time my guess is people

will potentially download content that will fix some bugs. once you release a game that's not to expectations, people aren't going to follow through and buy that game anymore. so that's kind of the unfortunate i. >> one thing i don't understand is when does all this move online. why are we still buying disks? >> yeah. part of it is connections into your home. there's potential throttling. you might not have the fastest connection. you might be on dsl. people don't want to wait 24, 48 hours to download a game. they want to buy and play that game asap. what we are seeing with the next gen consoles, about 10%, 15% are downloading the games fully. as dsl connections get better and fiber is more pervasive, i think that number will go up which will be good for the gamers. >> also i assume for the margins

of the gaming companies. >> absolutely. there's about a 20% mark-up on retail. that 20% savings goes right into the margins for the gaming companies. that's great news for margins. >> i always wonder and worry about the future of gamestop. i put them in the category are they a blockbuster a decade from now? what do you think of that? >> i don't cover them myself. i see that as more as this gaming comes online and more people are looking at games as a service, i think it's potentially risky to have a business like gamestop over time. >> thanks for joining us this morning. happy holidays to you. >> thank you. >>. >> coming up, a look back at some of the best and worst moments of "squawk box" of 2014. there weren't bad moments, were there? >> that wasn't great right there.

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welcome back to "squawk box." 2015 just a few days away. we'll look back at the highlights and lowlights. they don't clear this with us. we are all seeing it the first time for now for 2014. are you ready for this? >> good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick. >> what's happening here? >> count to three and count down. >> wow. >> blah, blah, blah. >> check this out. >> are you looking at this? >> it's sweet heat. that's my nickname for you sometimes. >> oh, my god. whoa, look at those eyebrows. >> do you think i'm cute? >> it's that way. >> i had people ask me is joe's hair real? >> someone said you could see

the tag. >> taxi. >> crap. >> sorry. >> joins me to talk about -- sorry. go back. just kidding. okay. >> it's worse. it's worse. >> i'm going to get fancy. >> i don't know. blah. >> start that over. >> i have no idea what i just said. >> excuse me. >> dachshund. it's a dog. >> come on. >> piegza. >> you are incorrect.

>> you have a really big butt. >> watch this. >> this is driving me crazy. >> it was right there. you see it? >> soccer. irv's seen too much soccer. >> andrew was last seen at a craps table at caesar's blowing

on some woman's dice. >> that is a good-looking shot. >> be still my beating heart. >> look at this. >> wait, wait, wait. >> save that. >> thank you for being here today. >> are we going to sing at some point? why are we here? >> national ugly holiday sweater day. >> thanks for putting that out there. >> let's just get out of here.

>> bye-bye. >> oh, my god. and the gloves. that's good. thanks to our producer dean for putting that together. >> you guys are all good friends, huh? >> he takes stuff -- i don't think it's fair to take stuff that was done not live. >> a lot of those blah, blah, blahs are tapes that never make air. >> a lot is embarrassingly, actually, we do that on air. some i look and i go, i cannot believe. moving around that much? i've got ants in my pants sometimes. >> i forgot about that fly. a fly doesn't look good on anyone. looks like -- when flies are attracted to you, you know -- anyway -- we are going to run that again. we have to watch that again next week. >> looking forward to that.

>> are you really? >> now i can steel myself. >> your oily feet. >> that was pretty awful. >> a good foot rub. >> it's very sensuous. join us tomorrow. thank you, michelle. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ >> man, it's always hard to follow the "squawk" year-end reel. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. jim and david are off today. we hope you are watching from home on your day off. interesting set-up here. premarket relatively steady after the best six-day run for the dow. oil trying to stabilize. brent above $60.

oil prices are on track for their fifth straight weekly decline. 10-year yield hovering around 2.25. we'll keep our eye on fixed income today. >> as "the interview" hits theater, audiences block to see the once-banned film. will there be fallout? news of another possible hack. >> santa's come and gone. now it's time for the returns. a report pointing to a strong holiday season for retailers. one estimate puts the amount of returned goods this holiday season at over $60 billion. futures modestly higher. major indices on track for their second weekly advance. brent crude above $60 a barrel as conflicts in libya raise supply concerns. nat gas did dip below $3 this morning for the first time since september 2012.

we know what nat gas has been through the past couple of days because of this warm weather. historic move. >> we got a polar vortex this time last year. concerns with energy production in this country. look at the set-up for the s&p and dow heading for a seventh day in a row of gains. this just in from our data cruncher peter who looked at the spoke note saying the day after christmas is usually positive. so much so, it has a greater chance of being positive than any other day during the year. that seasonal is working for the market today. >> a sunday in august is the runner-up but december 26th is the most common day for the s&p to close higher. also going for seven straight days is significant in and of itself. we haven't had seven straight days up on the dow since march 2013. we'll try to see if the nasdaq

can rebound from all that biotech action that took a chunk out of it the last couple of days. nasdaq to go positive december needs 4791. >> and the russell is a few points away from a record high. it's sortd of been lagging. there are a few markets closed today. australia, hong kong, london, paris, milan, germany and toronto are all closed, but we are open here at the u.s. markets. the bond market and foreign exchange market and we've got it covered for you. >> nasdaq volume on christmas eve, the lightest since black friday of 2010. >> wow. years low. i knew it was one of the lowest of the year. >> as we get more on the markets this morning and the year 2014, let's bring in chief market strategist of oppenheimer company. happy holidays to you. >> happy holiday. >> peter, let me begin with you. so many things have been

working. sara mentions the seasonals. the macrodata has been good. a bit of a chase here on momentum names. would you be ringing the register? if so, would that happen before the new year? >> i think what is going to happen there is a lot of speculation how great consumer sales have been, retail sales. we won't really know the results until say mid january or early february when same-store sales come in. i think that is going to surprise a lot of people. we've been pessimistic about retail sales, but all the data we had so far has been almost anecdotal. there is no real hard data out there now. it's all survey data. especially by the national retail federation. remember when we saw black friday sales estimated to be down 11%, that is an estimate. i think we'll get blown away when we see the real numbers. that will be reflected in a lot

of consumer companies such as jc penney which has been negatively painted by a broad bush. i'm betting we'll see positive surprises coming the first part of this year. >> interesting. john, there's that. there's the idea or the notion that energy is beginning to form some bottom here as the dollar tops out perhaps some argue. i see the russian finance ministers declare the ruble crisis officially over. that didn't stop it from sliding again today. are you seeing some things that are going to work in the new year or not? >> we have to think as the price of oil stabilizes, people get an idea indeed oil is likely to stay lower for longer. even after it recovers a little bit off the lows we have seen. with that, it should be good for the consumer. we think it's good for businesses. not just good for the u.s. but good for importers of oil, whether it's europe, whether it's china, whether it's india

or japan. may not be good for russia or venezuela or saudi arabia in some ways. a good part of the world is set for further recovery with the u.s. in the lead with an economic expansion. >> peter, what stands out is that we have been in a 2% recovery for the year following the financial crisis. all of a sudden, now we are in a 3% economy. is that baked into the market? >> i don't really think so. what is intriguing to me, if you look at this from a top down. we look from the macroperspective, right? as portfolio manager, i spend a lot of time looking from the bottom up. when you start looking at individual stocks, sara, there are still a bunch of stocks out there that are in my opinion, undervalued and not fairly reflected right today by their prices.

i urge people to look at individual stocks. when you start looking at that level of detail, i don't think you can walk away being anything but optimistic. sure there's tons of companies overvalued. if you do some deep digging, there are still companies that have 100% projected earnings results for next year that are trading at a fairly reasonable value. >> on that note, the "journal" today looks at five-year runs like the kind we just had. if you've been in stocks for the five years ended november, you are talking 19% compound annual growth rate. it's only happened ten times since the '30s. the record of what happens after those kinds of five-year runs is mixed. do you trust it? >> when we look at it, we've got to say, where did we come from? when we remember the fall 2008,

what led up to that period, we have to think this recovery process now an economic expansion in the u.s., has considerably longer to go as the positive effects of quantitative easing combined with recoveries and consumer spending, capex, improvements in job growth. all at fairly early stages. this could be a long-term recovery into economic expansion. we remain positive. we are looking for the market to do about another 11.5, 11.6% in 2015. >> that's above consensus, i think. s&p 6.6% is around the midline of expectations. we'll see, gentlemen, what happens over the next few weeks and months. thanks for your time. >> thanks. >> see you later. >> "the interview" finally opening in theaters across the country and online.

i watched on google play. fans got a special treat at midnight with seth rogen making an appearance with co-director evan goldberg. have a listen. >> we thought this might not happen at all. >> we're from the neighborhood. we live around here. we've been here before. >> with uncle sam or santa claus, unclear, standing by. kate rogers outside village cinemas here in new york city with more. we are hearing the crowds were big to see the movie. >> that's right. the cinema village hasn't opened up yet, but that hack attack gave an added boost to publicity to "the interview" showing at about 300 independent movie theaters across the country. fans turned out in droves to come see this film. "variety" is reporting given the limited amount of theaters it's showing in, the initial numbers are strong. it made just under $1 million christmas day. those who went out to see it say they did so almost as a sense of

patriotic duty after sony initially pulled the plug on the movie. >> i probably wouldn't have gone to see it, but the controversy got me interested. i do like seth rogen and james franco. it does feel like there is a larger principle here. we shouldn't be cowed by these actions. >> go see this movie. it's completely safe. we walked out on christmas morning. we are still alive. you're still alive? >> yes. >> most importantly, the freedom of speech is still alive. >> demand for this film online is very strong. it's a top clip on you use due movies, google play xbox. it's being downloaded illegally. it's been downloaded 750,000 times in 24 hours being made available online. the first showing will take place behind us in just under an hour. we'll talk about what they think about this movie. initial reviews are not looking

so hot. back over to you. >> i liked it. you have to be a seth rogen fan. you knew what you were getting into. it's about so much more than the reviews. thank you. we'll check in with you later. while the film opened uneventfully, there was trouble with sony, microsoft systems with use connection problems, a hacker group called lizard quad claimed responsibility. "we are working to get this figured out right away. we appreciate your patience." another headache for sony. unclear if it was related to the launch of "the interview." >> they haven't confirmed that's what happened. >> i told you i thought the movie was funny. >> you said you have to go in knowing what you expect from rogan and if you're kim jung-un it was offensive. >> it really was and disrespectful. not saying anything about the hack, but that's what they do.

i did actually feel like people were there, i watched it on google play, but to take a patriotic stand. it was about so much more than whether it was a funny movie. >> $1 million in 300 theaters is not too bad. >> not bad, but they'll lose money on this. when we come back, the gifts are unwrapped and ready to be returned. a quarter of all returns take place during the holiday season. a live check from a mall near you. >> also lower oil prices have given consumers more money in their pocket. that helping states hurting. we'll talk about winners and losers. you can bring back a lot of things

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retail sales. i think web bush said good things were happening. if cramer were here, he would say, "i told you so." despite all the worries about the secondaries and momentum, he has said it would be a holiday story. certainly what it looks like. >> that's what web bush said. it was strong holiday sales. especially in asia. they are going to exceed the high end of fourth quarter revenue guidance. the drone story is interesting whether they can get into consumer facing drones. they got a lot of positive press on that. "the washington post" had a headline, the innovation leader for consumer facing drones. getting out of this idea of military drones into ones we can actually use. what strikes me about the stock price you mentioned, we are off the intraday high. this stock went as high as $98.43 in early october. well off the high. it's got to be one of the boast performing tech ipos of the year. >> yes. as well as one of the biggest. closed on its first day in june at $31. if you bought on day one, hasn't

always been a winning strategy to buy an ipo on the first day of public trade, but you've done okay. >> as long as nick's father doesn't sell who initially funded the site. owe hasn't. they had their latest lock-up expiration tuesday. i don't think he was among the sellers. when we come back, a trip to the mall. royal caribbean, norwegian and carnival have given shareholders reasons to smile this week. what will booking season mean for cruise operators? and what about cuba? and take another look at futures. four more sessions left in 2014. o hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

so i can reach ally bank 24/7, but there are24/7branches? it's just i'm a little reluctant to try new things. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates.

holidays, you might expect news on retailers. amazon having a release saying the 10 million new members tried amazon prime this year. sales of smart phones doubled in 2014. 60% of customers on amazon.com using a mobile device. 60% is a surprise. they are not famous for giving details about the right kinds of things. >> the mobile story seems to be the holiday story. >> 60s surprises me.

we are here because we want to get a sense whether shoppers are moving from that online to bricks and mortars to look for deals. it's important because according to the international council of shopping centers, we've seen gradual sales gains in terms of the trends over the same time last year for just about every week during this holiday shopping season. people have been spending more money being helped along by lower fuel costs and lower gasoline prices. according to the national retail federation this holiday season, it's estimated shoppers will have spent if things come to fruition, about $617 billion during the entire season. the reason that's important is because if that number does come to fruition, that will be a 4.1% gain over the same time last year. that would be the biggest sales gain we've seen since 2011. a lot of the shoppers we have spoken to are looking for deals. they want to find the eye-catching ones.

there is a michael kors store where they have an entire wall that is 30% off. today only marked off another 25%. a lot of people looking for those real deep bargains this time around. back to you. >> dom chu, thank you for that live report in your christmas sweater at the mall. let's stick with retail. as more and more consumers are turning to their smart phones and tablets to shop. the general manager of lodi station located just outside cleveland, ohio. thanks for joining us, trinity. >> thank you for having me. >> what did sales look like at the outlet mall leading up to christmas and what are you expecting today? >> we opened at midnight, 10:00 on thanksgiving night. we had great sales that night. leading up to christmas, traffic and sales were fantastic. shoppers are busy all holiday

season. had lots of packages. the best traffic and a long time as far as shopping goes at lodi station outlets in northeast ohio. >> the numbers are still coming. in dom put out a number, best retail season since 2011, three years. does that sound about right to you? >> it really does. being at the ground level and watching first hand the shoppers, traffic reflects that sentiment at this time. yes, numbers haven't come in yet, but we are expecting them to be very positive. >> i'm going through some of the stores here at your outlet mall. i've got tommy hilfiger, toys "r" us, mostly apparel. which was the big hit? where did you see the most traffic? >> yes. under armour clearance house is

huge. they did phenomenal. continue to do phenomenal. bath and body works is a huge one, adidas, toys "r" us express. polo, factory store is popular. we have children stores, as well. carter's. all those stores are on the consumers' mind this year and have done very well. >> there is a piece today in "the washington post" that looks at the economics of the retail return. you've got this good, a stock coming the opposite way. you've got to find a way to get it back in. you've got to sell it to somebody else later. you don't want to make it so disturbing for the customer that you lose that customer. is it harder now than ever? >> it's a challenge as always. it makes us think outside the box. we are always coming up with

creative ways to get shoppers to come to the outlets. all the stores corporately come up with their own marketing plans. then we infiltrate those to our customers in a positive light. i think social media is a huge factor in getting our message out. our website is a huge factor getting the message out to customers on the great deals that can be had at outlet centers in general. >> trinity, thank you for he'ding thhe'd i adding that color on the holiday season. >> thank you. >> we'll get the opening bell in a few minutes.

thanks.

♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪

for that moment, where right place meets right time. and when i find it- i go for it. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. you are watching cnbc "squawk on the street." happy holidays to you. the opening bell is in about 1 1/2 minutes. seasonals for the stock market continue to ring loudly here. not only is the dow going for seven straight, something it has not done since the spring 2013, but seasonably, if you look at all the days on the calendar,

the s&p is more likely to rise today than it is on any other day of the year. >> that was pretty good for a set-up. december finished on a strong note. now the year-to-date gains 8.8%. >> biotech has been a trouble spot. clearly people are trying to chase a few things including retailers. these numbers out of the international council of shopping centers looking at the holiday shopping season. directionally, that's the way you want to go. >> a lot of that would be last-minute shoppers. we heard from the weeks before, hasn't been as strong. national retail federation expects sales 4.1%.

>> other than that, a lot of commentary out this morning. a piece in "the washington post" arguing it's time for the fed to start reloading the chamber just in case we have trouble down the road. the opening bell at the big board. the new era of pinstripe being held at yankee stadium. penn state and boston college facing off. at the nasdaq, offbroadway play "going once, laughing twice" a parody of the art auction world. randy levine of the yankees. >> they love when the athletes come. >> let's talk markets. on a day we know volume is light. what explains first off the action late in the day on christmas eve? we saw rapid fall-off in the

last ten minutes. >> there are a lot of people that aren't going to be here today going into next week. there were a lot of gains to be taken. might be as simple as that. could be a rumor that sparks it. >> are you hearing january will be payback for the incredible action in december? >> i haven't heard that. a lot of people are very positive. around the christmas tables this weekend, people were positive not talking about government for once. not talking about the political scene, internationally. everyone was optimistic about the markets in a quiet way, which is good. >> i was going to say, isn't that a bad sign when everybody is optimistic and there is nothing to worry about? one of the hallmarks of this rally since march '09 is climbing the wall of worry. >> i think people are quietly optimistic. that is good. the lose you talk about it, the better it is. i think we are spending money.

my kids had a great christmas. if that is a sign of retails forecast, we are in for a good year. >> ten-year almost to 2.3 in the span of a week. when does that become a signal that long good-bye is happening? >> i think the u.s. market is where to put their money. equities have done well. i think they'll continue to do well. when you are looking at a 10% return on the dow and people are forecasting for a good '15, they thought the end of '14 was going to be good, early '15 will be good, there is no reason to change your stance. >> one big thing changing in 2015 is the expectation that the federal reserve will raise interest rates the first time since the economic crisis. qe ended. interest rate hike is next. are people calm about that? >> when you sigh what's going on in europe, yes. they are talking about fiscal stimulus in europe.

u.s. is so far ahead. interest rate isn't going to be the damage they forecasted two or three years ago. i don't think that is a negative for this market. that is from someone very skeptical and bearish for some time. >> you've got putin in the corner. we never know what he is capable of. dislocations in high yield. 1/3 of energy earnings next year probably gone. you just laugh that off? >> you don't laugh it off. the biotechs took it on the chin early last week. money was going somewhere. it wasn't going into biotechs. they'll become a buy. oil will become a buy. it's too big of a service economy or too big a part of our economy to really fail. i think we found stabilization there. there will probably be value in there. >> by the way, energy is the top performing s&p group in the first few minutes of trading today. we are seeing 2% moves on the big name beat-up stocks.

any strategy there in terms of do you go for the small caps that have been beaten up the most or the bigger, more stable players like exxon and chevron? >> i think the smaller caps, obviously, there is more damage there. there is more risk for them. they need higher price of oils. their margins are so slim. majors can absorb that better. if you were a risk taker, small caps are a place to make a lot of money. if you were safer and you wanted some returns, you play the majors. >> poetic this morning at rig transocean, the worst performer for the s&p year long is the third biggest gainer. people are going to start taking gambles on the stuff that's truly been destroyed. >> that was. you see rig where it is now based on a couple of years ago after the spill. there's value here. they took a lot out of it quickly. >> you think retail -- a year from today, will we look back at 2015 and say it was the year

retail came back? >> it's hard to say. i don't shop. my wife does most of that. >> i went retail participation. >> okay. >> mom and pop. >> maybe. sometimes that is the sign of a top when you see people that excited. remember 2008 and 2009 and they are cautionary when they buy things. >> is it a cautionary symbol here when you look at the s&p groups that have done the best this year, you're seeing utilities, health care and consumer staples? these groups up 20%, 30%. those are defensive groups. is that going to -- does that give you reason for pause? does that dynamic continue? >> no. doesn't give you pause. that could be the first group that sold off. people start rotating into more riskier names. that would be one way to look at it. i think there are enough people looking for some kind of yield.

though are buying them in a proportional basis. >> that is weird. >> on it is strange. i've got to keep fighting. >> dollar/yen. strong dollar overall but against the japanese yen. does that have to continue strong dollar/yen in particular for equity rally? those two charts correlate nicely. >> it's tough to say. these things are just going on momentum. they keep grinding higher. until the trade fails like we saw in the dow two weeks ago, we thought the market would go down. we reversed back, over 18,000. these trades happen quickly. if you're not nimble, it could unwind on you fast. right now you keep going. >> by the way, nasdaq is crossed

over break even for december. there was a moment we didn't think that was likely. >> no one has seen moves like this. you see 1,000 point moves in the dow. tuesday with the biotech. these mofshs are violent. over the next week they could be more violent. they could be up side. >> is the biggest risk that central banks disappoint overseas? mario draghi high expectations that they'll do qe? >> they haven't dominated the headlines. they've been more subtle. >> we'll see you soon. >> thank you. >> even if it's just you, me and sara. >> all right. happy holidays. >> mary thompson is on the floor as we have a new all-time high on the s&p. >> the dow up 50 points at its best levels in the session. wednesday's close in a shortened

trading session. s&p at an all-time high. seeing broad-based gains across the board. many of the european markets are closed today. we did have some of the asian markets open including japan. take a look at the s&p 500. winning percentage the day after christmas. 78.78%. that makes it the most winning day. of all the days of the year. if your bull, it's a good bet you'll see positive moves today. energy stocks in focus today. as we mentioned earlier, they are leading the s&p higher right now. this despite a little bit of weakness in brent which is off 8 cents. peabody energy, nat gas, despite an earlier decline, below $3, it has now rebounded a bit there. we are also watching the retailers because the international council of shopping centers says this year

sales are expected to be their strongest since 2011, as you can see. gap doing well followed by kohl's. macy's up about 0.50%. consumers were shopping in force a couple of days before christmas. biotechs have been watching this. there's been a lot of volatility throughout the month of december. biotechs volatile last week. we'll see if there is a bounce. lastly, we want to end with sony. "the interview" the controversial movie opening over the weekend. you can see sony despite a hack attack on its playstation, modest gains about two cents. holding on to earlier gains. back to you. >> thank you. time for a look at energy prices. bertha coombs at the nymex. s&p energy group is in the lead now. >> it's been quite the bounceback we've seen over the last few sessions.

obviously folks thinking maybe some of the sell-off has been overdone in energy. we are seeing energy prices overall, futures bouncing back today. the whole focus in terms of this pullback seen future prices down 50% for the year has been about supplies. there's intensified fighting around some of the major ports in libya. libya did have to declare on some deliveries. that is putting the issue of supply back in focus. that's part of the reason we are seeing some stabilization here today. we are also hearing from a number of these oil-producing nations as they look ahead to 2015 and what oil prices mean for their budgets. the russian finance minister says they could see if prices continue to stay around this level at $60 or so, russian gdp dropping by some 4%. for russia, it's not just oil prices, but the international sanctions that make things difficult for them.

they are looking at $70 for a break-even point. saudis looking at deficits of $40 billion next year. that said, brent prices, a little bit under the even mark at this hour are set for fractional gains if we hold on to this level of price. meantime nat gas this morning dipped below $3 the first time since 2012. we had a fairly mild holiday season. forecast not calling for really intense cold weather, but that did bounce. it seemed to be an area we found a bit of support for this morning. back to you. >> thanks a lot. >> it's been a good year for investors in shares of cruise operators. which one would have been your best bet and will be as we head into the booking season. one analyst's take in a the moment. >> the owner of a theater that

showed "the interview." what he told us about how it went yesterday. dow up almost 50 points. s&p a new high up 11 points. so ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. chocolate, soybeans, thisand apricots. made with what kind of chef comes up with this? a chef working with ibm watson, on the cloud. ingredients are just data. watson turns big data into new ideas. and not just for food. watson is working with doctors and bankers to help transform their industries. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.

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how to look at cruise shops. royal caribbean up more than 70%. norwegian seeing a solid performance this past year as a wave of booking season begins where will the cruise ship industry head in 2015? joe simpkins is an analyst at credit suisse, covers the cruise lines, hotel business. how has the holiday travel demand for cruises? >> it's been solid. this is a quiet period of the year. right now we are building up toward the season which kicks offer in the next couple of months. forward pricing continues to be up in the low to single mid digits which is encouraging. >> they are raising prices in. >> absolutely. >> that is amazing. i think back to costa concordia. it's the ultimate lesson in

fear. people thought you would never sell another ticket for a cruise. >> reality is it offers a great price value. if you look at price the last ten years, it's gotten nowhere. >> was that a result of some of these mishaps? >> that and other events as well as a lot of supply growth. we had 50% capacity growth over the last ten years. >> fuel has been a problem. >> fuel has been a head wind. it's $500 million savings. >> and cuba, the possibility it could be business for cruise lines. >> we talked about it a little bit. the caribbean is an oversaturated market. in 2014 we had a 23% increase in capacity. to have new news gives people a reason, particularly the baby boomer generation to see something they haven't seen in cuba? >> which name is best positioned? >> i think it will take a couple of years for them to get their

toe hold. probably carnival given their scale. >> how about cuba? is it a niche thing? is it material to earnings in a quarter from now? >> it's probably 12 to 18 months away. if you think of that baby demographic, it could be the thing they want to do as they experience cruising. >> how big could share be of all rooms? how big could cuba be? >> probably 10%, 20% of the caribbean. it's another itinerary, another reason for people to think about cruising. >> what's going on with marriott trying to block wi-fi hot spots in their hotels. google and microsoft are putting up a fight saying you cannot do this. what's going on here? is marriott and the hotel group going to win? >> we'll see what happens. what the hotel chains are trying to do is capture more business with their best customers.

they want you to not book on expedia and priceline. they want be to be a hilton honors member. giving the best and most loyal customers in the hotel. >> how much do they make from these wi-fi charges? we pay $15 a day just to get internet service at hotels. that seems crazy. >> a few years ago it was a nice profit center. it's probably not as significant given that wi-fi is ubiquitous. >> we always talk about hotels and their reputation for overbuilding going into a boom. they haven't done it this time. >> that's the beauty of this cycle. this is the least amount of supply we've seen. >> it's unbelievable. rates can go how much higher? >> it's more of the same in 2015 and 2016. we have less than 2% capacity growth each year. >> getting more nimble in branding chains or parts of their chains for various demographics, right?

marriott has been that kind of story. >> sure. the trend we are following is the move toward select servers, courtyard by mayrriotmarriotts. as demand trickles to the secondary tertiary markets, the smaller service are thriving. >> do you see anything with international tourism with the strong dollar? >> not really. new york is healthy. we have a fair amount of supply growth. it's hanging in there so far. >> marriott is an unbelievable chart. except for ebola. >> that's been our top pick. >> and continues to be next year? >> yes. >> in the next hour of "squawk on the street," we'll have the president of crystal cruises to talk about their expansion plans. >> bill george is on the boards of exxon and goldman. we'll talk to him about some of the biggest tech stories to watch in 2015.

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as 2014 draws to a close, cnbc pulling out the playbook for ways you can make money in the coming year. michelle cruisa cabrera. >> my predictions relate to the fall in the price of oil and the world's troubled economies. we all know oil has gotten pummeled this corner leading to ripple effects throughout the global markets. there are numerous places in the world suffering from the massive sell-off. here are three predictions about the fallout. the russian ruble plummets even more falling to as low as 100 rubles to the dollar. was trading as high as only 32 rubles to the dollar within the last year. investors are fleeing the country due to the sanctions related to ukraine and russia's

dependence on oil revenues. venezuela forced to restructure the country's debt. if oil stays at the current level, venezuela will have $23 billion less in revenues compared to this year. though can't pay for imports and the breaking point will hit in 2015. importantly, venezuela will not restructure the debt of its oil company. that would be debilitating production which is how they make their money. mexico weathers the storm better. the country is in a better position than most because it put on a massive hedge guaranteeing they will pay more than $76 pour barrel for all their exports in 2015. however, mexico's much-awaited auction for foreign investment into their oil wells won't go nearly as well as they hoped. they were looking to generate a lot of interest for deep oil wells that. it's most expensive oil to drill and requires a higher price to be profitable. i taped that the day the ruble

was almost touching 80. my original prediction was 100 rubles. that doesn't look bold. so i'm going to say 150. it's fallen back to around 55 at this point. goes to show the volatility we've seen. >> unbelievable. i see today the finance minister there declaring the ruble crisis over. is there any way they can talk that market off the ledge? >> no. they could do things like capital controls and they've started to do those in a backhanded way by forcing the companies that bring in a lot of dollars that force them to sell half those immediately. that which that increases supply to the dollar and puts demand underneath the ruble. things can be done. they could absolutely stop the fall. then you have to do something which is not modern in economic times here. it's doing capital control. we talked about that with cypress. >> some think china could swoop in further.

that turns around the ruble talking about adding additional support. the china/russia relationship could be interesting to watch. >> china knows all about capital controls, right? they are this huge economy that has the capital controls completely in place. they know how to work with them. i think it's funny to talk about the russia/china relationship. those are two governments that in the end don't like each other and are forced to deal with each other because of the current geopolitical climate. >> you are going to have a busy year. keep a go bag at the office. >> she did this year. >> michelle cruisearuso-cabrerc. . . it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates.

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exhibition behind me is part of a summit we are conducting around alternative fuels and new ways to transportation. >> there are 140 guests here from 36 countries. this event has become the nobel prize for alternative fuels. >> everybody is looking at this and sees that everybody's there. i also want to be there. >> the future is about opportunities. >> there's a lot of knowledge all across the world.

the idea is we share this knowledge, we can move faster toward solutions. what's wrong with trying new things? feel that in your muscles? yeah... i do... try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates. good friday morning. simon, david, jim all have the day off. >> how did that happen? >> i have no idea. pretty good action here. all-time highs on the dow.

all-time highs on the s&p. 9.25 points to 2100. dow going for its 52nd record of the year. basically a record of the week so far. >> crude under pressure. nat gas continues to take it on the chin. >> six of the ten s&p sectors setting multiyear highs. nat gas dipping below $3. all the trades you need to know. >> let the returns begin. ups expecting to return 4 million packages by the first week of january. the international council of shopping center says holiday shopping season saw the best sales growth in about three years. >> the controversial film "the interview" opening in more than 300 theaters christmas day without incident as it becomes the top movie sales on google