it okay? >> it's going to shake out and then settle down. >> guys, thank you for being here. love the panel this afternoon. >> kicking off the week here, fast money coming up with our melissa lee. what's on top? >> hey, more of what david pepper told me and also, tech takeout targets. we are naming name. who can buy what next year. >> we're along for the ride. >> fast money starts right now. live from the nasdaq market, i'm melissa lee. your traders are -- oil falling 2%, the dow breaking a seven-day winning streak. we got a dose of optimism today. david tep he thinks it will be a good year. tepper saying quote, it's not the time to be careful now, enjoy the ride, but warneded about the potential of overvaluations. what do we make here as we sit

at new record highs? >> if you look at earnings, we're around 19 times. nx year, we're 17.2. i don't think there's a lot of value there. i think there's a lot of interesting things. the things that got 2014 off to a decent start and gave us volatility in the mid year i think is what happened in 2015. as long as central banks are printing money and there's little inflation. i think we have the same format. i think europe will do better. but what he says i think makes sense. it's not bubble time. >> when central banks are combatting deflation around the world, a result of that is a rice in asset prices. >> it's real simple. you have more money chasing asset prices. i think he's quot to something. it's going to sound funny coming from a guy who's generally bearish, but the market is, i would call it overvalued f. you look at market cap to gdp. we're at the second highest lev of gdp in history.

but with all these central banks printing money, why wouldn't you get into bubble territory? this could be the biggest bubble of all time. that being said, coming in 2015, there's a whole flock of black swans out there. we know china's a problem. europe could have issues. you've got to be careful. like he says, but i think if the u.s. is benefitting from all the problems of the world. >> i think you know, the market this year was strong, but it wasn't as strong as the market last year. as we look to 2015, i think we're going to see continuinging weakness. i think you need to be a stock picker, so i'm not as optimistic as everyone else. i think the market will be strong, but next year, you're going to have to be more aggressive picking fundamentals. >> when we say good year, he said 8 to 10% and remain in the

sort of fairly valued frame. that's true. >> it's one of the worst years. >> as did his, he admits that. but going into 2015, he's longer now than he was back in may at the salt conference when we were there and he was 70 to 80% long then. >> and i'm sure david, who's been a great investor throughout his career, wish he was longer this year. anybody on this desk wishes no matter how long we were, that we were longer. >> oh, yeah. >> however, i think when you're looking at volatility now, at one point today, it was up about seven and even as the market was just vacillating back and forth, seems the reason is that they're all those swans out there. there are a number of those flying around. if any of them ends up disrupting the market, people will be grateful they have this insurance. they've done it by the way 21 of the last 24 years, they've bought volatility, which means primarily put purchases to hedge or to control some downside for their portfolios protection.

that's the smart play. >> so, brian, just back to you. it sounds like you are reluctantly long. or bullish in the market. >> you get killed if you do that. that being said, when you look around the world, look at the outperformance of the s&p versus the rest of the world equity index. there's a huge divergence coming on. these massive divergences. as long as the money keeps flowing into the u.s., you're okay. anytime i've gotten bearish, rates have risen and you have credit contracting or the potential for money supply contracting. when that happens, we will go into a bear market. >> so, the thesis here is that there has to be convergence of these two. >> in the longer run. i think the u.s. could still outperform because it's the best place to go. >> i think there will be convergence and i think that's a dangerous thing to do. i'm an emerging markets guy.

they have been destroyed over the last four years versus the s&p, so if you said reverse through the -- that becomes a very bloody trade. it has been. i think europe valuation wise, you've got oil 50 bucks, a number of stimulus points and rates are at all time lows, that's why it could outperform. >> if you look at the markets that have outperformed, data points that markets have been strong. india, another market that's been strong. in 2015, i think fundamental picking of stocks is going to be important. that's something everyone should focus on. >> finishing the year on a strong note, but crude oil is a different story, fulling to today to its lowest levels since may of 2009. let's bring in dennis gartman. what happens to that short lived pop? why did it reverse so hard into the end of the day sf? >> it did not live very long. it was over very, very quickly

and it probably should have been. it was predicated on the fact that there hawere problems over the weekend in libya. 900,000 barrels had had taken out because of the problems over the past month of two and with some destroyed in a tank. that should have given you a rally. the bulls had hoped you would get a rally, but around midday, it dawned on everybody, hey, wait a minute, everybody knows this has been taken out of the market. we know that libya has had reduced production. we understand this tank has been hit. what if libya does come bang to the market and puts 900,000 barrels back into it. both brent, wti and dubai crude continues to widen. the term structure continues to be even on up days, massively bearish. crude is bidding for storage when and where it could find it. it's still going lower still. people laughed at me a month and a half ago when i thought we were going to see 50 and i think

we're going to see well below there. nobody's laughing any longer. now, it's a martter of where th needle stops. >> the last time we spoke, i asked you. so, do we see 40? >> we see 40, not a question. we'll put 40 up there just to do it. the question in my mind is do we see a 30 bid at one point some time next year. and it was really quite astonishing to listen to -- say over the weekend, it's irrelevant to him whether crude goes to 30, 40 or 60. he is still going to be produce ing as the oil minister of saudi arabia. they are going to be producing as aggressively as they have been to protect their market share when he talk about the possibility of 20, you have to take that very, very seriously. >> dennis, quick question. you know, the saudis have a 2 trillion reserve fund to keep finances afloat.

you know, this reminds me of 1986 when they essentially said we're going to continue producing no matter what happens. you have the shale boom in the u.s. i agree that prices are going to 40, potentially below. what are some of the naysayers saying out there? >> they're saying that we're already seeing a massive reduction in rig counts. we're seeing curtailment of employment in north dakota and the perm yan basin. we're going to see those things, but they're not going to be sufficient to stem the decline that's going on. we are far more effective in using crude oil. we are producing more. clearly, the increase in production, the delta of oil production is going to decline in the future, but are we going to see the united states producing less crude oil next year? the only question is we won't be producing as much as we hoped we might. so we're not going to curtail anything. the saudis aren't going to curtail anything. the question is, will venezuela,

angola, nigeria reduce their productions. they all need cash flow like the russians do. they need the cash flow that is coming from production of $100 crude oil and with prices at 50, they need theoretically to produce twice as much. they won't, but they're not going to curtail. . good to see you. >> happy new year to you, mel. >> so, we will most certainly see 40 bucks a barrel says dennis gartman. does that then become, is that bter for the u.s. economy or a sign of trouble? >> i don't think it's a sign of trouble, mel, but i think it's a sign of trouble for the stocks in that space and i think that's being priced into many of those stocks right now. has been already priced in in some cases. i think there's more pain to come in many of those cases though. kelly evans was just doing on closing bell, one of those stocks i wasn't as familiar with that had broken all the way down and was substantially down in

the afterhours due to the reduction in demand for their services. so, are we going to continue to see that in yes. is halliburton or slummer bay going our business? >> today, two big data points. people don't want to see the dow manufacture -- rate kounlts are still higher than they were four, five years ago. down small year over year. this, however, is a boom for global markets. this is an absolute stimulus that we haven't seen with rates at zero. we've never seen anything like this. and i think people that don't think this is great american ball park for the global economy is and drillers, there's a lot of room they could go down. southwest energy, you fade that. these are names that i think you have to take what it gives you, market gave you a rally, you fade that. >> the kounlt back in 2008, 442, now, it's like 1500, so we're

still above. let's go to market flash on cceo. down to the news room. with the correct pronunciation. here's another company that has the same kind of ripple effects you were just talking about. the shares are plumeting. down about 29, 30% in the afterhours. this is a company that does housing, if you will. accommodations for people that work in oil fields, so they're an ancillary play to what's happening with the oil business. the company has reduced guidance, it also suspended its dividend payment. they suspect first quarter revenues are going to be in the range of $70 million. now, they were struggling on continued weakness in that global commodity complex as these major oil companies in north america reduced in 2015, so a company that relies on the oil and gas industry, you guys were talking about rate counts

before. these guys have a lot of business in canada. baker hughes said that the count in canada, active rig, fell 135 to 256 active rigs, so there are much higher impacts north of the u.s. and in canada. remember, this is a company that two large hedge funds are a part of. so, these are two big names as of the last reporting period. we don't know what they've done, if anything, yet, but they are two big names that are part of this play. back to you. >> thanks so much. remember, relateded to this name is investors real estate trust and karen finer man was talking about putting a short on that name, so that's another one to watch in the after hours sessions. we've got iret and right now, it's not moving much, but it is worth keeping an eye on. >> and it's a name, like a lot of these names. i call it a small cap. less than a billion dollars. it's going to move a lot. the volatility's high.

what's cheap here, but that's very, very deceiving. these are guys that had big numbers last year. to say they're going to do it again, that's a value trap. >> if i could real quick, the issue here is is the benefit that tim spoke of, which i agree 100%. this is a company with like 4,000 employees, so let's not read too far into this and say this is bad for the u.s. economy. baeks made it to the -- of the copper, at a four-year low or so. >> it is, but i think it has a lot further to go down. if you take a look at the charts that i have, this is a much longer chart than 2002. copper has been well below $2 and right now, it's hovering around $3. that level has stood for almost four years. one, two, three, four, five times. you can see the $3 has been the pivot point. now, what's going on in the copper market? if it's not over at the least, it's slowing. most of the copper demand comes

from china. we know that they are transitioning their economy away from housing. when you look at housing prices in china, those are continuing to fall. so, for me, i think going into 2015, copper is one of -- they're not going to be building as much. the black swans that are flying out there. remember that copper has the views as collateral. which i don't know if we're going to get or not. then you still have that black swan of a crisis in china. so, this is one to watch at some point in time, there will be that point panic in the market. eve p just a minor slowdown in china. >> great calls. see how that pans out. back on the rise.

we've got someone who says the $10 million buyback could be in the cards. he thinks could be a next winner. a big winner next year. we'll talk to a tech analyst so tell us why fire eye could be a target in 2015. but who would buy them? that's coming up next on fast.

a positive mention and now, we've got an analyst who thinks this is the perfect time for gilead. michael, great to see you again. >> thanks, melissa. >> you had believed gilead would start increases. do you think they're in the market to do that now? >> absolutely. let's look at the facts. stock's down 15, 20% on the highs. they bought back over a billion in q2, over 7 billion in q 3. already, they bought back 6 billion this year. spoke with the company today. they have a 10b5 program where

they're allowed to buy back stock at significant pullbacks and i think they're going to up that in 2015. >> is that the primary reason why you like the stock going into 2015? your note made it seem they would likely be range bound, but it's increasing towards cancer and amino therapy, but in the meantime, they might give you a capital return. is that fair? >> well, i think capital allocation, buybacks and the fact the shock is cheap will keep a floor in the stock and keep it higher. when you look at the hepatitis c sales, obviously, there are very high sales. you saw a lot of selling on last week, the fear with the express scrips issue. i think you own the stock in 2015 because the stock is cheap and if they're going to going to beat despite the news last week. with the company buying back stocks with estimate revisions

on the uptrend and the stock runs higher. >> let's talk about your under the radar stock. the 500 plus million dollars in market cap. zenocourt. >> the stock has started to have a little bit of move recently. i think in 2015, you want to own this stock because in late summer, they have a phase two out for a sor rye sis pill. that drug's going to do about 4 to 5 billion. it's a very similar drug. reformulated a different way and they've got data in q3. i think it looks good. i think the stock moves up to 10 or 11 bucks before we get to that data. >> when you say you think they're accumulating, certainly, there were those two big days last week. 72 million on the express scrips announcement. those are the big days where

they could have been involved in you say you think they were. >> i think they were because accordinging to the company, there is a program so while the company itself is theoretically in a blackout period, that program allows them to buy stock at predisposed trigger points on pullback, so whether that was the first or second day, i think they're in the market buying and we've seen that a lot even during the big pullbacks. they were buying back. >> michael, great to see you. thank you. zena port is surging now up about 18%. we're watching that one. in terms of gilead though, stock is cheap. and they're buying back stock. >> and today, you had a barons

article that gives it the pop. the street, same day you've had guys go to 125. i think you have to wait for the other to come out, watch cvs come out. they're going to demand significant discounts. why do you have to buy a stock if you know there's significant pressure. >> all right. up next, did carl icahn take the cue from karen finerman? he's calling for break up of a company karen has owned for some time. what she plans to do next when she phones in after the break. plus, sheikh is going public, but will investors salivate or could it go the way of the others and fizzle out? that's next.

a huge day kicking off top trades. gains of nearly 9%. this after carl icahn disclosed a significant stake in the name. karen finerman has been all over this call. take a listen. >> one that we own is -- and this is the merger of a crane business and a food service company. clearly, it's obvious what is synergies are there to anyone. so, you have relational and you saying, split these businesses. i probably would buy if it trades liquidly there, but i think that the company, they could face a proxy -- maybe they could cave in. >> karen joins us now on the fast line. good to speak with you. thanks for phoning in. what do you do now? >> i hang on to it. i mean, i think it's sort of just beginning and carl given

with relational stake and -- is a big stake, not that york's going to be active, i think carl will get on the board if he wants. the pressure is so great that all the synergies they talked about don't seem to materialize, ever. and when you look at the competitors in the food service businesses, their margins are way lower than something like a building, so not only do i think you get a higher multiple if they split, i think it makes their food service a target for acquisition. so you could get two bumps. >> i presume that you think the ceo will be a casualty. he was the one who engineered that merger way back when, '08 or when ever that was. >> that was a really ill fated merger. they brought it at the top and levered up to do it. like when the crane business fell off a cliff.

i don't know that them surviving or not needs to be part of this strategy. i do think the separation needs to be part of the strategy. they talked six months ago about the synergies and how when one is doing well, the other would do poorly and vice versa and the last quarter, both haven't done great. it's five years later. six years later, maybe, and i was hoping, i look t at the filing to see when carl starting buying on the off chance he started buying after -- came out, but now, he's done before that. >> last question, karen, and that is -- do you change it in any way? >> i wouldn't change it. i wouldn't be surprised if it comes in a little bit, but i think there's a lot more to go. i don't know, i just believe that relational believe, they started buying their stock in 30 and 28.

so, i don't know. >> all right, thanks for calling in. enjoy your holiday. >> coming up next, overstocks. a new policy out of japan weighing in today, suggesting it could be a tough road in the near future. so, gordon, who will be vulnerable and who would umt to be long in 2015? >> for solar stock, clearly, they have been major underperformers this year. the issue is simple. japan has essentially handed over the keys to the kingdom and any market where that's happened before, germany, italy, czech republic, slovakia, there's been significant downside in those markets once the utilities take over. solar power eats into their margins and revenues. we think there's going to be a decline in japan next year. 20% of global demand.

meanwhile, against that backdrop, you have capacity expanded for policy silicon, wafers and modules, so we see significant downside in models. those are the stocks that would be short on this trend and against that, for a stock like a sun edison, where they're basically given unfettered access to money to go out and acquire pipeline and you don't know what's in it, but investors are giving them a valuation on that. >> they've got yield codes. as oil, if we were to believe dennis gartman, that oil's going to go lower, i don't care what the fundamentals are, the correlation is there. >> go inside the call of these names. i think the yield cos have an ability to trade because they're some of the parts. they're going to spend this, having said that, that stock did

52 last year. i don't think you can expect the same. we've had the ceo on fast money and he's he's indicated they have more deals to go. >> you're in sun edison? >> i think it's a name you continue to watch and play. i don't expect this year to be like next year. >> next, shake shack this morning, founded in 2004 by danny meier, it features 63 across the globe. he seemed to have a few concerns last year about going public. >> well, i'll tell you what, when i hear stories like yours earlier on activists investors, i can't think of anything i'd less rather do. we want to spend our time working on making burgers, fries and shakes taste better. >> unless, you need money to expand, brian kelly. >> there has been some chatter and some of the changes they've

made over the last couple of months, that they would be doing this. this, i think, is just the first wave. we have a five guys burger, smash burger. all of these guys who have been competition, mcdonald's, so i think that's the way you trade this. all these companies becoming public. mcdond's potentially has activists involved in that. i think there's more upside in mcdonald's that there is in a shake shack ipo. >> we're upside for macdonald's being in shake shack. >> the tightness of the shares when they come out as we both know, this is be a tight and highly sought ipo and there won't be activists involved for at least a year for a whole host of reasons, that all the lock ups.

>> for danny saying i'm worryie about activists and stuff like that. he won't have to worry about that for a year. i think this has a long runway ahead of it, so i would be a buyer. i will be putting in for this. for myself and our clients. >> the key for these, one of the greatest restauranteurs in the world. you don't want to be around when the guys drop the donuts. people are expecting them, throw dunkin' donuts in there, too, where i'm short. you don't expect them to grow 40% a year and yet, they have. i'm not going to tell you when to get out of that name, although i would not own it at these multiples. >> up next, the three tech names that could be right for a buyout in 2015, from cybersecurity to the cloud. the names you need to know, next. and later, the undercover china play that just became the world's most valuable tech start up in the world. back in two.

still ahead, take over targets for 2015. we've got an analyst who says

could be one of them. and the most valuable start up may have apple in its cross hairs. trader making a big bet that home building stocks are about to hit the wall. we've got the details in a very special options action. first, google's purpose of nest la labs. some think the next 12 months could be even bigger. it's set to be a massive year -- dan, always good to see you. fire eye certainly had its issues. why would it be forced to sell itself at this point? it's really where they sit on next generation, cybersecurity. they believe have the best security technology out there.

it would fit four large large player give p where they've going in the next data center and it comes down to their core technology for a tech network. they're as good as any out there. and big data is really fuelling the engine here. look at this i.t. spending, you see more and more spending on the top rows. you definite -- and there is a thing where a lot of these large tech players like the ibms, they need to growth they need to build the data center and that's where the top would fit in with ibm. it's been right on tier one acquisition.

. would fit the bill. the ownership has been discussed, but they need to significantly step up on the choud. that's going to be heated. that success in 2015. how confident are fou in these take outcandidates. buying a stock is usually a terrible strategy.

now and dr. j has noticed high call rl volume in best buy. >> we talk over and over again about how there is the christmas shopping season, mel. there is also super bowl and the oscars. super bowl and the oscars, that's really best buy's sweet spot. because those are big tvs. february 40 calls came pouring in today. 7600 of those traded in one block. they traded 11,000, almost

12,000 of these open interest was uh in a couple hundred. in other words, somebody is betting stock ex employeds to the upside, moves well through 40. we bought along with them the. i am long this name. >> maybe more closer as the holiday season. february calls would capture the quarter is. >> yeah. >> and the super bowl wouldn't be captured in the quarter. >> we have new year's day which will be for the first time in a long time -- >> i'm long best buy again after last week. i'm getting a sense that the 4-k is a better refresh for people. the holiday season will be a surprise. >> coming up, chinese phone maker xiao oh mi's most recent round of funding. will they take a slice of apple's share? more "fast money" ahead. top.

chinese cell phone maker xiami getting a whopping $45 billion valuation, the most valuab valuable start-up in the world. joining us is andrew erkowitz. great to have you with us. >> appreciate it.

>> in what market should an apple or htc or samsung be worried when it comes to xiaomi. >> the sweet spot on hardware is priced around $300, $350. and below that. apple should not be worried at this point. names like lg, wowee, le frlenod samsung should be worried. they are taking a big share in the past four years and will continue to. >> i know that when we talk about xiaomi on the show we talk about apple. near term there is probably not a threatment longer term could you see an advantage? it is a private company with a lot of money to spend. it's willing to spend it. we are allocating a billion dollars toward video content. it wants to go into indonesia, russia and emerging markets. does it have the advantage? away from shareholders it can

spend as much as it wants on whatever it wants. >> sure. longer term, where it is a threat to apple, you're right. if you think about how we believe apple is over the long term building an eco-system, xiaomi has their own oh software system. they have been spending a lot of money building up a large eco-system. the longer term, absolutely. you think about e-mail services, app stores. you know, xiaomi, they are copying apple almost to the tee. that's going to be a threat -- not in the u.s. you know, not in europe. but in some of the developing markets where they can't afford the $600, $700 apple phone they can afford a xiaom iphone and get locked into the system. longer term it's threat on the fringes for apple. it's more of a threat against everybody else.

>> who could they buy to get them into different places they want to get to, get to the next level? i'm long blackberry. p maybe that's one. are there other names they could buy? >> you know, i don't think so. i think they are going to do a lot of it within china. china as done a very are good job over the years and getting more aggressive to build their own supply chain within china. so i think they will do everything they can to build an eco-system with chinese players, with the supply chain there and just really lock in -- basically block out the apples, samsungs from the chinese market. i don't really see an acquisition they could make. i do believe somebody needs to buy blackberry. that would make perfect sense. regulatory issues probably keep that from happening. >> andrew, thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> how do we -- longer term it

could be a threat. for now, what's the trick? >> i stay in apple on valuation. i like samsung. the stock got good momentum. eight times next year. you can buy it in london. the chip sphere as much as the hardware. >> chip? >> on the topic of tech,s one stock we have mentioned before is micron. you're talking about significant content growth in mobile phones and servers. mobile phones going from one to two gigabytes. a lot of people are afraid of the capacity expansion at sam sung. we don't think it will happen until 2016. this is a stock that easily does $4 in earnings. potentially five. you put 12 to 13 time multiple on it. that's 20 to 30% upside. we like the stock. >> you have to think xiaomi, if they can imitate what apple has done, the one people are pointing at is go pro. you have t day one

of the players goes after that market as a well in a bigger way. watch that. it does play into the one i mentioned that has more downside, you still watch that. >> it's hard to pronounce when you look at how it is spelled. xiaomi. we'll talk about this a lot in the future. >> get used to the names. for the next ten years these are the names we'll talk about. masses sieve companies with a massive customer base out there. when you want to play samsung, i am short ewi. the big part of the korean index is samsung. that's a macro call. not a fundamental call on samsung. check out ewi. if you think it is a macro call you short it. agree with tim, buy it. >> are home builders hitting a ceiling? why some are betting against the sec tor in 2015. that's next.

home builders lagged the market this year and some don't see 2015 being kinder. mike with the options action. hey, mike. >> it was interesting. we have another holiday shortened trading week and options volumes were light but

not in home builders. pulte homes, dr horton at four and a half times lennar, two and a half times. all taking place at roughly the same time. we were seeing actually call sellers. for example, in pulte we saw sellers of the february 22 calls collecting a little over 50 cents for those. they traded over 8500 times. you're betting the stock probably isn't going above the strike price. every single one of the names, about 4% higher. they were collecting about 2.5% in premiums. given that these have gained a little over 20% since the october lows maybe they think that will slow down for the next 53 days or so. >> fib on the desk like home builders going to 2015? gordon? >> i think what i was going to say if you look at the recent jobs data there was significant job creation there. fist time buyers. you can look to that. overall i'm not bullish on the home builders.

that's one data point that's positive recently. >> glass half full. b.k.? >> not for me. no. you have a couple of things going on. think about it. if rates go up homes will be more ex-pen sieve. if rates go lower that's signalling that potentially the economy is weaker. home builders are in a tough spot. plus a 20% rise is not something b.k. buys. >> more options action on the live show on friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. meantime your first tomorrow when we come back.

time for the final trades. >> global spirits. time to take profits. stz. >> dr. j. >> best buy. i intend to hold it for several weeks. >> gordon johnson. >> first solar. the 2015 guidance day will be a catalyst, negative. we are shorting it. >> thanks to gordon for sitting on the desk tonight. brian kelly. >> i talked about copper at the top of the show. continue to short copper. jjc, that's the etf. that's your trade for 2015. >> all right. i'm melissa leement thanks for

watching. catch us tomorrow at 5:00 for "fast money." don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you so call me or tweet me. we live in a very confusing moment, at least for the stock market. it's a time when there's always somebody on tv or in the newspaper or on the interne