birthday tiger. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today. we have breaking news coming in. just a couple of hours ago, indonesian officials saying debris has been found and the last captured radar message from that jet. at least six bodies have been found. we are going to have more from the singapore airport in just a couple of minutes. but first, other big stories, two economic reports of note on this second to last trading session of 2014. coming up at 9:00 a.m. eastern time, we're going to get the case-shiller price home index. oil prices dropping again, brent crude on track now to post its

biggest annual drop in dollar terms. industry group api will release its data today. and in global news petro bass could be declared in technical default on some of its foreign debt. some bondholders want petro bass to speed up its losses in that giant corruption scandal. so a lot going on this morning. mr. kernen. >> it was down yesterday. >> in the second place. >> here it is. in corporate news the shares of civio today.

the small market cap company about to get smaller. the oil field services provider warning the first quarter and full year revenue numbers will fall well below analyst estimates. the company suspending its dividend and announcing plans to cut its workforce by 45% in the united states and 30% in canada. the ceo blames big cuts in capital spending by major oil companies. the first time we've ever led with it, but that's why. because we are going to be watching. it doesn't matter the size at this point. we'll be watching it for any of the ripple effects from what's happened. the crude with some of these companies, which we have heard we're going to see some -- absolutely going to be some that cut back or have leveraged themselves too much and that either change or disappeared. baker hughes reports the on shore count declined last week. that was the third week of declines. u.s. oil producers are pulling

back amid these lower crude prices, the lowest that we've seen in five years as the nasdaq gets close to the highest levels in 14 years. obviously, not completely related, but t kind of interesting. >> the understand decks is now at 5% from its march 2000 high. check out the leaders. american airlines up 109%. you will be very happy if you own that stock. electronic arts adding 108%. if you think those are terms to impress, you have not seen anything yet. since the nasdaq peaked in 2000 been here are the stocks that have gained the most. monster beverage up 41,000%. keurig green mountain up 34,000 percent. tractor supply nearly 7,000% and gilead more than 4,200%.

but how about the most talked about tech giants? apple is up more than 2,400%. microsoft is still 6% below its march 2000 high. intel, 38% below its best mark that year. cisco, 58% off of its high. >> not sprooi surprised. >> huge multiples back then. >> it was has 50 sometimes earnings. >> coffee 38,000% more? mon sters drinks? >> at the same time that the nasdaq hit a high there was a greek ship bubble. with technology, coca-cola, it was almost a new 50/50. let's check on the markets

this morning. finally going to get to see my oil board. futures, down 8 points or so. once you factor in futures change in fair value. the s&p is indicated down three and the nasdaq is indicated down about 3, as well. we're going to have mr. jeremy siegel on my buddy, mr. 18,000. european markets this morning, kind of ragged. i think as we get close, january 1st or about an back to january 2nd is when the trading begins. we start to see how this is going to play out. you know where people are. they're down in st. bart's with -- actually i don't think that -- >> it's been a good month. >> i don't think beyonce -- no,ite not always a good month.

but beyonce and jay-z, they're not there. i saw they were in thailand. a lot of people are, i think. a lot of people go to aspen. i'm sure some on your colleagues on your -- it's not a sitcom. what is it? it's a big time -- >> drama. >> you're wondering what i'm talking about? >> your show on showtime. >> they're doing a pilot. >> they were doing a pilot. i don't think they're in -- >> okay. or aspen. let's see oil, my oil board which i have been begging for all morning long. you're right. not down so much though. 53.29. we have not seen a four yet.

actually, we were talking about the wrong way to use it. we have not seen a four handle yet, have we? >> no. >> yet is the operative word. >> and there was one put that someone sent in on twitter that i think was a 62 put, sorkin. it was 2 cents and it was bought and it was up to -- i think, $8. so that's 50 times 8. is that 4,000? >> yeah. >> it's gone up 4,000 times. anyway, let's check out the ten-year. that is one of the big questions that we talk about every day. what is coming there? it's just as interesting to talk about the ten-year as it is the stock market.

>> and he's saying more of the same next year. >> with the fed going up, it's going to be weird if they are. if they see the slightest bit of weakness, i think they'll lose their nerve. 121 now on the euro. 119 on the yen. finally, gold has been hard to get over 1200. it's 1187 this morning. >> let's get over to asia. yeah, we have more on this morning's breaking news. debris found near the last captioned radar message from that missing airasia jet. martin joins us this morning with more on that. martin. >> guys good morning. as america wakes up today, there morning, grim and sad news out here in asia where it is night. just a couple of hours ago, concerned reports, 40 bodies have been recovered from what is now known to be the crash site of airasia 8501.

these bodies have now been moved to shore where they're going to start the process of trying to identify who they are. but undoubtedly, these are part of the 162 passengers and crew members aboard 8501 which went missing a little less than an hour into the flight from surabaya. now, i say crash site because of this found earlier today, it has been confirmed that stuff is debris and wreckage from the plane. we're talking about luggage, a door, confirmed to be from 8501. the president of indonesia is arriving as we speak, i understand. they'll be meeting with the obviously distraught relatives and families of the people on

board that plane and possibly speaking with the press. this is the first major crisis of his administration. back to you. >> martin, we appreciate that. thank you. >> any of the relatives or family members are waiting for. but remember last time how long there was a question and, obviously, this is not the -- what we wanted to find out, but there is a resolution, at least, in this case. it was just two full trading days left in 2014. markets are on track to end the year at near record highs. we're not just talking about the dow in the s&p 500. right now, the small cap russell 2,000, the dow transports and utilities sitting at highs. joining us now, mark smith and mara harris.

let me start with equities. maury probably feels bad always being second. we'll get your forecast. hank, 8% to 10% up is that what you're thinking or are you different than the crowd? >> no. that is what we're thinking. and i think the rally in the last two weeks that has seen the dow go up a thousand points has probably stolen a little bit of 2015's returns. that would make sense. something more modest in the high single digits, that's in line with earnings growth. you don't really need any multiple expansion. i think that's a reasonable expectation and in any event, it's going to beat the alternative. equities still look like the most attractive asset class when you compare it to fixed income and cash. that's our forecast and we're sticking to it. >> so that will reflect -- that

will reflect, what an 8% to 10% move in earnings and multiples stay the same? >> yeah. look, i think we're going to get with a faster gdp growth somewhere in the 3% range where we've been averaging 2% for the previous five years. i think that's going to translate into better s&p 500 profits in the mid high single digit level so you don't really need the multiple expansion to get to that high sympathy digit return. >> you don't think we'll have multiple expansion? >> investors are finding and believing this is a secular bull market. it was only a couple of years ago in which we were arguing whether this was a cyclical rally in a secular bear but no this really is a secular bull

market. we still haven't seen a construction in 3 1/2 years. the one in october was not a correct. we are going to see some volatility. but just like last year we think any pullbacks are going to be brief and shallow because there's still a lot of money coming in that wants to participate in this market that is previously missed the bull market. >> what do you mean technically it's not? do you think there is some god that has given moses these targets? there is no god that came down and said 9.9 is not good enough. it has to be a shaking out sentiment. i'm not going to argue with you on that. >> that was only interday. >> that could make a difference you're right, because closing is all that matters.

>> would you be buying multi nationals? >> and that is the only question on the dollar strength. over time the dollar plays out and really doesn't affect investments all that much. high quality, dividend paying and dividend growing stocks. you still have the opportunity to get better than bond yields in the equity markets. that is remarkable given that we're up 200% off the bottom and, yet, equities still give you that nice yield advantage in many cases throughout all s&p sectors. >> all right, maury.

i now want to look to you. i don't know if you sometimes feel like alice down in the rabbit hole. number one, 5% is that nor real or are we more like 3%? number two, are you going to see wages start to do a little bit better? is the 5.8% actually 5.8% where people can ask for more money? and then three, what kind of weird world is it where no one is really sure interest rates on the ten-year are going to go up even though it seems like things are going better? it is a weird world, is it not? >> and there's a lot of strange things going on. i think next year probably is a good year for the gdp and real times you have it at 3%. if you add that 2% inflation, you have a 5% nominal gdp growth.

wages are probably going to pick up next year. we've seen a faster than expected unemployment drop this year. that can happen again in 2015. wages are going up 2%. i think next year they go up more like 2.5% heading up to 3% in 2016. on the ten-year i think once the fed starts to tighten, which i think they will start to do in mid year the ten-year yield is going to go up. the bond markets for a variety of reasons hasn't built in the fed tightening. and we think at the end of the year, funds will be up to 1.38% and probably will have a ten year back up to 3%. i probably would agree with your earlier guest that stock res going to outperform bonds next year. >> %. so is this something you thought for the last several years or -- >> i think just about everybody

is surprised as how low the ten-year has been. i think it's testament to how important the qe was .how important the fed's purchases have been. that is i think, the big surprise. of course, we don't have that qe going forward. we have a bond market that hasn't maze up its mind as to the extent of fed tightening next year. i think as wages pick up we have a pretty good chance of getting up to 3%. >> i think if we stayed at 2.2% and we're very cautious as far as moving up or even if we went to three because it was forced higher from greater economic news, i think the multiples could stay where they are or expand either way. i agree. it will be a good economy. >> all sounds too good to be

true, though. that's the other thing. and another 8% to 10% guy, andrew. a lot of you guys. i guess there's two scenarios. we're so volatile but you ept up being right. or it could be up 20 or down 20. >> joe -- >> no. >> yes. >> also to murray's comment that there has been over the past three or four years this expectation that inflation is right around the corner. and it hasn't been. now with low oil, there is no inflation and that's going to be very good for equities and you might get multiple explanation because of the lack of inflation and low interest rates. >> thank you. hank did you just get finished with finals or at haverford

or -- are you on break? >> we're still on christmas break. >> all right. are you with your folks, staying with your parents? did you get some good stuff under the tree? >> santa was very good to me. >> all right. thank you. >> it's very good. >> yeah. >> are you okay with that? >> useless. no. you learn how to think and say was that the aventi or -- still to come this hour we will -- 2015 retail says the trends the track and the sector remains. the biggest risk to the markets right now, is it greece russia or the middle east? and later, a cnbc service latest installment of our million dollar homes game show.

we're going to tell you which properties we've got and then let you vote on the winner. first, as we head to a break, here is a look at this day in history. we're right back in just a moment. [ shutter clicks ] hi there! [ laughs ] -i'm flo! -i know! i'm going to get you your rental car. this is so ridiculous. we're going to manage your entire repair process from paperwork to pickup, okay little tiny baby? your car is ready, and your repairs are guaranteed for as long as you own it. the progressive service center -- a real place, where we really manage your claim from start to finish. really. ♪ easy as easy can be ♪ bye!

>> do not adjust your calendar. the world's most famous ball drop will be tested today. the 12 foot diamond ball will sparkle with almost 2700 waterford crystal triangles. the glow is going to come from more than 32,000 l.e.d. lights and more than a million spectators are literally expected to jam midtown manhattan in the freezing cold in times square. nowhere else i'd rather be tomorrow for the new you're's eve celebration. >> at home in the bed watching all this. >> maybe not even watching all this. >> i'm trying to think of the other unpleasant things that i really dread that i would prefer over being there, except -- and

you know what the reason? the main reason? i wouldn't be able to watch carson's daley's show on nbc if i was actually down there. there will be some great performances. >> usually you don't play along with me. but now that you're kissing up to -- that was smooth and you didn't have to search for -- that was really good. >> anyway that's why i wouldn't go. >> large parts of the country breaking for an arctic blast and ring in the new year. alex wallace. alex wallace joins us from the weather channel. like a long lost friend. we have this other guy usually alex, a very natty dresser. >> alex is giving him a run for his money.

>> alex we're not disappointed. >> good to see you, as well. not good news if you don't like the cold though. we have a big arctic high. blame canada. most of december multiple experiences of a mild winter. we're going to be talking high temperatures 20 degrees to 40 degrees below average. temperatures that below average means a lot of single digits. denver the high for the day, only 2 degrees out there for you. omaha omaha, 10 degrees. heading into tomorrow look for that cold air to move down into texas. san angelo 36 degrees is your high. this will work its way across the four corners. helps to bring up some snow. potentially could see some snow in and around vegas. nothing we see too often, right? but there is that potential. better chances as you head farther off towards the east. guides, back to you. >> thank you alex.

appreciate that. happy holidays. happy new year. this week we are looking ahead to the new year giving investors a playbook on how to cash in in 2015 the, so we hope. courtney reagan let's see how she fared with her picks last year. courtney prediblthed we would see activist investors in retail. and she was right there. with abercrombie. very good. she's smiling right now. get some take away shot there. mike jeffries getting pushed out earlier this month. and we'll say she's half right about mall operatorses and investors take a hit. the lease that own them have seen their shares -- it seems like a really big disconnect. courtney predicting more shoppers and retailers will turn to outlet malls for brick and mortar shopping.

she was right there again, ding ding ding. so the big question is what is courtney predicting for 2014. >> retail saw a lot of changes in 2014. and the headlines won't end when the calendar flips to 2015. here are three predictions for next year. first, sears stays for now. it won't see a resurgence in 2015 though 2016 could be a different story. majority shareholder and ceo eddie lampert is undertaking various financial engineering exercises to squeeze out all the retailer's assets while largely neglecting the retail business itself. it's not a sustainable wie to run a business but he will come out the biggest financial winner in the end anyway. second american eeg sxl abercrombie are among the

retailers currently looking for new ceos. the more vacancies will crop up throughout the year. online shopping mobile and fast fashion has changed how we shop. fresh retail strategies and it will continue to be a difficult task. third, the line of the cmo. as targeted marketing and personalized shopping offers grow and importance those two with the role of the chief marketing officer. previously a position that was more of an afterthought with secure seats at the head table. >> let's bring in courtney now to discuss some of those predictions. i want to go back, if we could, to the previous pictures. why is mall traffic going down? sorry. >> i know. >> how can mall traffic be going down and the share price going up? >> real estate is a very valuable commodity, no matter oftentimes what is being done in the space currently.

and that is why i think we're seeing in. i actually recently spoke to a conference in new york city with a bunch of deals. they said, look,ite not so bad for us. >> which prediction are you most confident in and which are you least confident in? >> i have to say, so many people have been watching this year and wait for some time. i think it will be around in to 20 15. 2016. >> what happened to that company? and has is eddie making money off of this? >> yes, he is. he's sort of paying himself.

this huge company has given some loans to sears. >> so we talk about sears as if it's a grand failure. to him, it's a grand success? >> he'll probably end up making a decent amount of money on this, and he has along the way, too. >> okay. which prediction are you most confident in? >> i think the last one. >> the cmo, the chief marketing officer. marketing was an after thought. it's all about finding your officer and targeting to her. >> the best cmo in the business right now?

>> i think the best marketing team in general led by the cmo is someone we talk about all the time. >> sure. >> the more involved the ceo, that helps, as well. >> that guy. >> he's also a good manager. is. >> wouldn't want to be him and then did she no. >> women want to be with him and men want to be him. >> right. >> you did make a prediction on mc hammer pants. >> i did make a prediction. >> will they stay as popular as they are now in all the different colors? >> what are they called? >> the mc hammer pants b. >> that was from 1989. >> they're back. >> oh maybe she's so far -- >> joggers?

>> they were two years ago. >> no no no. >> this is going to be the hot item of 2015? >> active wear. >> i thought lululemon was -- they told me to tease that so long ago. >> we'll talk about that another day. >> a tease will make you stay glued to the screen. let's see if this works. coming up the greek bailout is at risk. also, there's fighting in libya, which is taking out some oil production. even though it's cold out today. and russia dealing with a major currency crisis. a rapid fire look at the world's flash points and the biggest risk to the growing markets, next. >> his predictions for 2015 ron johnson installed as the head of sears. >> who? >> ron johnson. >> no who wrote in? anyway, but first, as we head to break, here is a look at

yesterday's --

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. becky will be back on monday. for our penultimate and final

day from cnbc global headquarters. and then wednesday -- >> we're moved to the new squawk headquarters. >> to the new squawk headquarters. and this can be the ultimate case of wedding crashers two army captains had to move their wedding ceremony to weekend so president obama could play golf at that venue. the two had planned their wedding for the 16th green of the marine base on the honolulu -- on oahu it saw it last night on nightly. but the night before the wedding, they got a call about the president's golf game and the change in plans. the couple had been warned it might happen and the president only learned about it later, that he had caused the wedding to be moved to a nearby location and he called the couple after the ceremony to congratulate them and apologize for the inconvenience. they're both in the army and

they said are you ready to complain that your boss's boss's boss's boss had to move the wedding? they said no no it's fine with us. it worked out because we had a better view from a little bit above the 16th green and the president was very charming. and he was very charming when he called on the phone and said he feels awful. he had no idea that was going to happen. >> before he plays golf or goes to a restaurant do you think he asks, by the way, who are we displacing? because i think i would. >> they asked him what he shot too, and he said he shot an 84. at first i doubted it but his swing looked pretty good. but you know who used to shoot 84s all the time? >> who is that? >> bill clinton. apparently it only took him 105 shots to shoot an 84.

>> global hot spots are flaring worldwide. in europe growing concerns about another debt crisis with uncertainty hitting a fevering pitch following a divisive pitch for the vote. on monday the s&p stock market federal nearly 4%. the euro currency hit its low he level against the dollar in more than two years. joining us now is david gordon president at international capital strategies. how much of the weakness in the euro now would you ascribe to things happening in greece or in europe rather than just the strength of the dollar, david? i think right now what we've seen over the last couple of days is obviously greece rlthed. but in general, a lot of the weakness in the euro is really about the fact that economic

prospects for the united states look much stronger than they do for europe. but right now, it is the greece crisis that is causing the further weakening of the euro up. >> and at this point, what do you think happens on the 25th in greece and what are the chances now if you can give me a number on a -- >> what are the chances on a greg-xit? >> greece doesn't want to leave the eu but they also want to restructure their public debt. that is going to cause a lot of problems with the europeans, with germany. germany has been willing to continue to provide bailouts on the basis of the sumg that they're going to be repaid. so the politics here are really getting tough. this is a tough time for europe.

they have three interrelated challenges. the first the greece. the second is frankly how to find financial support for ukraine in the context of a continued rush yap assertiveness there. and then the third is conflict over quantitative easing how far to go and a big conflict between the ecb and the bundes bank on steps moving forward and all of this is leading to the rise of tan tie european parties in many many countries in europe. so i think 2015 will be a very tough year for europe. >> not just -- i mean yeah everywhere those parties made significant gains. and here we are again. so what greece really probably needs to do if they still had the drachma, they would just devalue the drachma. instead, you have these unelected bureaucrats and the

austerity could be permanent. you can put a different country in for greece. i don't see how this even works. >> well i think the politics of this are really coming apart, that this only worked on the basis of austerity leading to growth and it's been way too slow. so you have had the politics coming apart. i think that the chances of the politics here staying together are pretty limited. so we face an election late january and the likely leading party here is going to be the

anl tie bailout party. the question is will they have enough of a mandate to rule alone and how will they negotiate? i think we're in for several months of really serious unalternativety around greece and that is going to make these other crises hard to handle. they're in for a tough time. >> david, we appreciate it. thank you. coming up in just a moment, economic predictions for 2015. our bold calls are next. then at 1050 eastern time reality check for the new year. we're going to take you notice the nation's priciest properties. plus, at the top of the hour we have jeremy siegel who nailed dow 18,000 now get his target for 2015. we're back with all that in just a moment.

thanks. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow.

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coming up the fashion's most expensive house or the priciest homes that will give us access if you have more than $1 million to spend. which one will you buy? we will take you inside and ask

you to vote. we're going to do all that when "squawk box" returns.

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♪ cnbc's popular million-dollar home competition is back but with a twist this morning. this time around we're blowing the roof off the $1 million price range and showing you the most expensive houses we could get into. go to cnbc.com/vote right now and pick your favorite. here is the million-dollar matchup.

>> welcome to your own private oasis. this victorian mansion sits on 11 acres of pristine shoreline and includes a private beach, dock, and salt water pool. inside enjoy spectacular water views across 7,500 square feet. five bedrooms, five and a half baths, and three fire places make this is the perfect place to relax to the sound of the ocean. perfect your swing on the private tennis court. cultivate your green thumb in the gardens and heating greenhouse. or let creativity wash over you in the third floor artist studio. this seaside escape is yours for $13,750,000. >> this glamorous penthouse perched on 4,500 square feet offers chic city living from a distance. 30 floors up. two terraces offer panoramic views as do all four bedrooms.

rise above it all in the spa-like master bath one of four with a soaking tub and steam shower. the walk-in master closet is big enough to satisfy any clothes horse. and speaking of designer the apartment has custom finishes throughout. a european style kitchen comes stocked with state of the art appliances and, of course those sky-high views. chic city living for $5,025,000. >> okay. so the question of the morning, which house is the better bang for your buck? waterside wonder or sky high luxe? you can vote right now on cnbc.com/vote. let's bring in real estate super broker dolly. first of all, tell us where the homes are loeked. >> the waterside wonder is in connecticut which is close to the border of rhode island. it's connecticut/rhode island. and the wonderful urban home is in philadelphia. central philadelphia.

>> okay. >> i got confused. i thought we were comparing million-dollar homes again. >> a little million-plus. >> i saw that first one and i was like where is this, love canal canal? where would you get a million-dollar house like that? >> it was not love canal. but it's a great home. >> so it's $13 million. >> $13 million versus $5 million. >> we've got to get the value. >> in philly near comcast. >> right. >> we could be neighbors with the roberts family. >> in a great city. >> i guess it's because i thought the first was a million dollars and i really wanted it for a million dollars. >> we could talk to them. there's a negotiation process. >> make them an offer. >> they don't make a lot. >> not going to be around for much longer either. that's where you were going, wasn't it? yeah. swallowed up. >> couldn't you be almost anywhere? couldn't you be anywhere in the

united states or anywhere else? where if you're in philly you're in this wonderful central, urban place. >> what's the commute, though, from a new york city? >> it's long. it's a real compound out of the city. >> is it two or three hour trek? >> exactly. >> so it sounds like you are signaling that philly is the better buy. >> philly's not new york though. >> but it's a great city. >> i know it is. but it's different. right? >> it has a lot to offer. >> what would that place run in new york? probably $50 million. >> it rents for $20,000 a month. that's a big number. and the whole house only rents for $30,000 a month. and it's $76,000 in taxes. 76. >> what are the monthlies on the apartment? >> it's very low. it's like $500 a month. >> $500 a month. >> yes. because the taxes are abated. >> the waterside wonder has -- >> look how beautiful it is.

visually it's wow. drool. >> it is locked in that our viewers would like the water wonder. they think that's the better value. >> i knew it. visually. >> the superstar here. >> it's visually impossible to beat. that house is spectacular. >> but you're saying our viewers are wrong in this particular instance. >> if they're putting up their dollars, they might think differently. they're voting visually. >> from a value perspective. >> yes. >> it would definitely be right for a million dollars. >> in love canal. >> dolly is going to be back with the next matchup. later she's going to crown the winner during "closing bell." the winner in this case -- >> is the voters' winner. >> the voters' winner. >> i'm just ushering them through. coming up he was the first to call dow 18,000. you heard it here first. now jeremy siegel is back and has a new market target for 2015. we're going to talk to him.

he's today's guest host. and also about 10-6 and they're not going to -- huh? seriously? they're not in the playoffs? that is a heart breaker. we'll be right back.

breaking news this morning. debris and bodies found in the search for the missing airasia jet. we'll have a report from the region. the nasdaq now a mere 5% from its march 2000 high. and some of the biggest winners in the runback might surprise you. plus brace yourself. a frigid new year's eve could be coming. the plains in subzero freeze and an arctic blast is heading south. snow packed roads and major air problems are close behind for

holiday travelers as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc first in business worldwide. becky is enjoying the day off. our guest host this morning, "squawk" market master jeremy siegel, professor at wharton and a guy that's gotten it right. there were skeptics and doubters and he got that dow number closer and better than anybody else. but before we talk to jeremy this morning, we do have breaking news at this hour. airasia now confirming that debris found earlier this morning is from its missing plain. martin soong joins us from the singapore airport with more on that story. martin? >> andrew good morning.

hello. and good morning folks. you're right. airasia just out with a statement minutes ago confirming what we already know. that the objects found earlier today are search and rescue teams parts of panels and luggage from airasia flight 8501. this is something indonesia authorities told us several hours ago. what we're in now is the recovery phase of this operation. we understand there are reports that hospitals in indonesia are getting ready to identify the bodies that have been recovered. remember, there have been confirmed reports that 40 bodies have been pulled from the ocean, transferred onto ships, and onto shore. now hospitals are getting ready to identify them which means the relatives, the families of these 162 passengers and crew on board are going to have to get very directly involved. and this is probably the grimmest part of this operation. we're also listening for the

indonesian president who we understand has arrived at the search and operation headquarters on shore near this crash site in the ocean between surabaya and singapore where we are. and the press conference is already underway at the search and rescue headquarters as we understand it. they're saying the recovery operations will continue into tonight. tonight asia time as long as conditions permit. one thing we have to remember is not just the weather, but also what's going on in the sea there. in the recovery area. there are waves that are expected to be as high as seven to ten feet which could pose a bit of a challenge to recovery efforts. one of the things they're going to be trying to do is to pull out from the ocean the biggest chunk or part of the aircraft. the air bus 8320. the good news is where the crash site is the water is not

relatively too deep. the authorities are also saying at this press conference that as far as they know from evidence to date there are no survivors from 8501. so this is important to note because this has been one of the big questions dangling out there. and finally, again, the thing watching out for tonight if the recovery operations continue they're going to try to pull the biggest chunk out from below the ocean. back to you. >> martin soong in singapore, thank you for that. and thank you for your reporting. we know you've been working around the clock on this story. we appreciate it. making headlines this hour prices of oil hitting multi-year lows once again. west texas and brent crude touching their lowest levels since mid-2009. ongoing concerns about a lot of things. oversupply and demand. economic reports are due this morning. the case shiller home price index showing a 4.7% year over

year increase. and expected to register a sizable jump for december. u.s. investigators are said to believe that north korea hired hackers from outside the country to help with the cyber attack against sony. reuters reports that those investigators don't believe that the country had the capability to pull off such an attack on its own. >> i don't know if you saw, there was another report that suggested north korea had nothing to do with it and actually it was insiders former employees at sony who had done it. this coming from one of those companies that had been doing some of its own investigating surprised the fbi were surprised that suggested it was north korea. i think there's going to be a big debate. >> when the government says or the fbi says that it appears to have been north korea, we believe it. we couldn't even imagine that they would say that without -- >> and they said they he did finade

didad had definitive proof. >> that would be perfect if someone had a grudge against sony. some disgruntled employee. seriously? this is like a novel if that really happened that way. >> we will see as that story continues. meantime, let's talk about nasdaq. the nasdaq less than 5% from its all-time high set back in march of 2000. dominic chu here this morning to take a look. strange trip in some of the names from back in the day that have posted massive returns. >> it was march 10th of 2000 and that intraday high was 5132 on the nasdaq composite. on an intraday -- we're getting close. you can check off all these other indices. but they're still getting there

right now. if you look at some of the winners since march 10th of 2000, some of the big names here, of course, are ones that we focus on a lot. amazon and apple, two of the better performers. the two best performers since march 10th of 2000 have been monster energy and keurig green mountain. look at some of these returns over here. monster beverage the best performing stock on the nasdaq. up about 41,000%. this is $111 stock right now. back then it was around 27 cents per share. keurig green mountain it was a 40 cent stock. and of course apping and amazon are two names we talk about often. how much they've gone up. apple very respectable. 2500 return since then. and amazon has done okay. it survived the d.o.t. com bubble and is up 370%.

there are some large name tech companies that are v not recovered here. think of yahoo! intel, and cisco. at one point intel and cisco and maybe microsoft were considered the backbone of technology. take a look at these performers. intel still away from its highs it reached in the peak. yahoo! not the search giant it was back then. down about 43% since its all-time high. and cisco has got about 58% to go. a lot of these names are names we've known for so many years and we thought were going to be big performers with but now they have not performed quite as well as some of the smaller companies have back in the day. back over to you. >> are you going to do this report again? >> i may or may not do this report again. i might change up the stocks.

there are other great stocks in here. >> dom called apple's 2500% return respectable. and then for amazon he called 450% well okay. this is in 14 years. >> 15 years, right. >> so going up six times in value or five times in value in 15 is unheard of. and the 2500%, you're talking about the most valuable company on the planet. the first two, i don't know what those are. keurig and the other one. >> remember we were all saying cisco was going to be the first trillion-dollar stock. 600 billion, the first trillion-dollar stock. >> it took a wrong turn. anyway, i don't like those words. respectable, dom. i think you need maybe a more accurate word. and i don't like okay for 500%. maybe throw ge in there. if amazon's done okay how has ge done. >> we should talk about ge. they're one of those companies that has not performed as well. >> not performed as well.

>> i'm trying -- >> down to 25. and the other one is up six times in value. >> a lot of you guys -- i've only been here for a short amount of time. but a lot of you guys i know worked for that company back in the day. this used to be owned by general electric and a lot of people in our building here have a lot of exposure to that stock. so see what happens. >> yes. okay. thanks, dom. our guest host for the next two hours is squawk market master jeremy siegel. he's used to 2500% returns in 15 years because he's a professor at wharton. he told our viewers this time last year that the dow would hit 18,000 in 2014. and despite a nerve-racking slide earlier this month, yeah. it scared us. i think it scared us because it was in combination with ebola. >> yeah. >> and even the airline stocks with oil being weak even the stocks took a 20% hit. >> the entertainment stocks. disney, anyone. no travel.

that's devastating. >> that's right. and professor siegel joins us now. and okay. that was good. to stick with 18,000 the entire time. against a lot of skeptics and people who called you apermable. all the same. journalists that work for the greatest news organization or whatever, they think that's their job. alan ableson thought it was his place to question everything for 30 years and steer people out of the market for 30 years. god rest his soul. >> yes. the doom and gloomers always seem -- >> and they're always smarter. they're always smarter. >> they don't eye the conventional with the rose colored glasses. >> they're always smarter and worse at managing money. >> they seem to always sell even if they're wrong, they always sell. >> a professional skeptic. >> yes. there is. obviously you're sitting here.

no. but what about next year? i mean if you were to give us a round number what would it be? >> 20. >> would it? >> 20 could happen. of course anything could happen. >> what is that ten? >> that's only 10%. >> 20 you seem a little wishy washy. >> it gets hard. the last three, four years, i felt this was easy. it was a slam dunk. market was so undervalued with the interest rate so low and earnings momentum going up. earnings momentum is still going up but we are close tore fair market value. we're not there yet though. one of the reasons is i think interest race rates are going to be permanently lower -- not lower than now. but what the fed even thinks is going to be the wrong interest rate going forward. i think we'll see fed long run and maybe 2% instead of 4%. that lower interest rate i think

is going to continue to feed people to move into stocks. >> it is all about -- it's not just the absolute value. >> relative. >> it's the way things are moving, obviously. >> yes. >> but you could actually make the case that as rates came down in the '80s and '90s if six and five on the way down warranted 25 times earnings then as we're going up i understand it's the opposite direction. but if we were to stop at three our four why is that 15 times earnings? why is that not 25 on the way up? >> exactly. >> if the bond market doesn't give you anything at 3% or 4% why wouldn't stocks still be worth 20 times earnings? >> fixed income still the world's largest asset class. "fast" it's what you have to compare everything to. if interest rates are going to

be permanent lower than what we're used to -- >> you add in why rates are going up. add that fact in as well because things are better. >> going to get better yes. >> and gdp might get better. >> an interesting statistic we were talking back in 2000. do you know that the s&p in real terms in other words corrected for inflation is still not where it was 15 years ago. still has not gotten back to where it was after inflation. people say it's crazy high and back to where it was, we're not there at all. >> for those of us that live through the early 80s and were awake not in like grade school or something. when you saw the market trade up to 1980 we never thought -- i remember even guys at mir ril lynch, bob farrell, he was like

this guru. we got from 800 to like 1050 or something and it was like it's up 30%. and then every thousand points a thousand 2,000, 3,000, 4,000, 5,000. it was just unbelievable to watch over 20 years. so if it were to happen again and i'm not saying it will but to go from 18,000 to 20,000 is different from going from athousand to 9,000. what's interesting, we are going to sell the same multiple of earnings today as we did in 2000 we would be at dow 36,000. do you remember that book? >> yeah. i remember the guy because he's a guy with a famous name. some other guy has his name too. glassman. same name. that was an economist. >> yeah. >> very confusing. but they were different people. all right. we'll have more with professor

siegel. >> he's going to be sticking around. when we come back we're going to talk about our raelz playbook for the new year. higher mortgage rates around the corner? we've got the answer. then a focus on financials. why some banks are still worried there's another regulatory shoe to drop. and later, 'tis the season for college bowls and the coaching carousel. we're going to talk big money, football and more with a "squawk" sports favorite. "squawk box" returns in a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. this week we're looking forward to the new year giving investors a playbook on how to cash in on 2015. diana olick will lay out her picks but first let's look at her picks from this year. she predicted home prices will continue to rise by gains will ease. and she was right there. diana also said that mortgage rates would rise and in that case no dice there. and then diana also predicted that rents would rise this year and there she was dead on with the continued strong demand for rentals helping to set record pricing highs in some metro markets. so what is she predicting for 2015? here's a look.

>> the housing recovery took a step backwards in 2014 as home prices rose too far too fast. and incomes couldn't keep up. now as employment improves and price gains ease 2015 is looking brighter. but perhaps even bumpier as buyers run head on into rising rates. here are three predictions. there will be more houses. there have to be. as household formation improves the builders are looking at more developed lots and a better labor market. i'm going with a little cooling on all that rental apartment construction. mortgage rates have nowhere to go but up. we predicted rates would rise this year and we were wrong. but with the fed pulling away from mortgage buying and an improving u.s. economy, interest rates have to break out of the

current lows. home prices have to cool off. sticker shock sank the market in 2014. home prices have jumped double digits and payback was a -- well, it wasn't good. slower sales and more inventory of existing homes added to all those new homes i'm predicting with keep price gains tight. we could even see a few months in the negative. but for the year a gain nationally of, i'm saying 2% to 3%. >> here to dig into the home front is michelle meyer. she is bank of america's merrill lynch's u.s. economist. you agree with any of these predictions? all of them? you disagree? >> i broadly agree with them. i think it's right it will continue to cool. i think it will remain positive. the areas we've seen most of the cooling this year were those that had the fastest appreciation at the begin og the

recovery. so parts of california went from 20%-plus year over year appreciation to 10% or a bit less. housing construction i also think there is further upside. it's a bumpy path higher. >> she said 740,000 new starts. >> it might be a little high in my opinion. i think household formation is the key factor. it's been gradually coming higher. >> what about in the rent versus buy? she said she thought the rental market would cool or at least there wouldn't be more construction. >> i think we'll see more multi-family construction. as household formation will recover, it will be favorable for the rental market. think about where credit conditions are. it's still very tight.

think about the lags from people entering the labor market. so i actually think that could be -- maybe single family could peak in the next few years. and multi-family i think you can get up to 500,000 or so. >> so switch around. i want your view on this one too. interest rates and what it does to mortgages. >> it's not just the interest rate. it's on credit availability and how strict they are with the standards of giving the mortgages. we're still echoing with what happened with ben bernanke getting rejected for a mortgage. this is crazy. it's not just the rates.

they are so tight. now, there's a lot of pressure to loosen that. i think that's going to have an important contribution to the market as anything that's going to go on for rates. yeah, we'll see a few ticks higher on rates. but if they're not quite so strict, i think we still have a very good housing market in 2015. >> i absolutely agree with that. i think it's not only a function of how expensive is it to purchase a property. home price is a factor. but it's can they purchase. do they have access to credit. >> and your prediction? >> i think 5% is probably a bit high. i'd say below that. >> okay. we're going to leave it there. happy holidays. thank you for coming in. appreciate it. coming up breaking up is hard to do or so you thought. analyst calls on the tech company that could consider spinoffs coming in the new year. next. ♪

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coming up when we return, call it the year of the spinoff. seeing big news on the topic from hp to ebay just two well-known examples. and analysts now saying next year will see more of the same. plus what the biggest financial names are -- what they're

banking on in 2015. we'll give you a hint. think regulation. "squawk box" returns with that and a lot more in just a moment.

welcome back to "squawk box." if you could hear what goes on during the commercial breaks. let's tell you the headlines this morning. airasia has confirmed debris off the coast of borneo is that of their missing flight. also publisher conde nast has won a lawsuit. thousands of interns claimed company had underpaid them. they're going to get payments now of $700 each. and japan to boost the economy and overall economic growth the rate will be cut by 2.5 percentage points and then to 31.3% the following year. the first person diagnosed with ebola in britain has arrived in london to a hospital.

the woman contracted the disease while working with the charity save the children in west africa. she flew late on sunday and was diagnosed with ebola on monday. the minimum wage is set to rise in 21 states this week. the state hikes will increase the hourly wages of 2.4 million workers to an average of $8 an hour. early next year 29 states will now have minimum wages higher than the federal government's. breaking up is hard to do. at least that's what the song says. but had the tech world spinning off and going it alone was all the rage this year. can investors expect this in the new year? josh lipton joins us from san jose. you do it on your smartphone the horrific alarm thing? what time is it? oh boy. >> it's very early, joe. you don't do -- it's not smartphones. it's just two basic old school

alarms. but tough have two. that's the trick. >> you need two? i'm sure you do. thanks for doing it for us. what's up? >> splits and spinoffs that was the big tech theme in 2014. analysts say that is going to remain one in e the new year. hewlett-packard, ebay, symantec all in 2014. so where will the splitoffs be in 2015? here's the things. oracle could make big news. comes from software and service. while hardware is a drag that could be sold. so who is a potential suitor? >> if i had to put a name out there, i'd probably put adel out there who currently doesn't have what i call the highest end of hardware that is out there that

actually runs complete systems like oracle has out there. but i think it could be a segue for intel to get into that market. >> oracle said revenue in its hardware division rose just slightly to $1.3. billion. another potential spinout in 2015 amazon web services. amazon doesn't break down the performance of its cloud service but it's estimated that losses in that business are growing which is impacting the company's bottom line. moorhead says it is a distraction that should be spun out and sold. a potential buyer there, hewlett-packard which is in the biss of building a cloud services business. back to you. >> all right, josh. thank you. we appreciate that. and you need to take a nap or something. power nap. power nap. in fact right now might be a good time for it.

[ laughter ] just kidding. thanks, josh. andrew? >> from tech to banking, the industry was granted a couple of regulatory passes at year's end. and a two-year extension for banks in hedge fund holdings. so what's ahead for the regulatory? mary tompkins joins us. >> and this is going to be exciting. >> i'm sorry about that. i'm sorry. >> eye opening. >> she's got so much energy. come on. >> well, she should. >> of course. >> you should. because in your case it's a team that shouldn't be in the post season and in your case it's a team that should be in the post season. he's an eagle fan. can you believe that? 10-6? >> yeah. listen i'm actually -- i would not put them in a bowl either. >> sorry. go ahead. >> love my alma mater but that

was a sad season. >> i was happy at the game with michigan. >> yeah. i was at that game. it was a lot of fun. it was so close. >> and the quarterback golson looked like he -- >> things fell apart. >> sorry. >> there's always next year. >> jeremy's saying that too. >> all right. so back-to-back regulations. to find out what's ahead for 2015 we spoke with dan ryan who is chairman of regulatory practice. the first thing we asked him, if the soon to be installed republican congress tried to roll back more of dodd-frank. >> i think you'll see some peel back on dodd-frank and some unity would be around maybe raising the requirement about what's a systemically important bank in the u.s. >> 90% of the legislation has been written. in the new year new rules to watch for is additional buffers

for globally systemic banks. exposure to other banks and long-term debt requirement for big banks. ryan believes all this rule making has made big banks safer. though potentially less attractive investments. >> the real issue would be what is that going to mean for bank investors. is it one that has to hold 30% of cash and reserve. >> which of course begs the question but a number of people have been asking will the regulators force big banks to break up. >> i think the regulars won't require them to break up. i think the question is going to be to put money into the banks. given the fact they've got to hold so much liquidity and reserve. and their valuation could be impacted. >> more on my interview with ryan you could read that at cnbc.com. did you fall asleep?

>> no, no. it was good. i was thinking of rogoff yesterday. first i thinking about the word used to be we don't know long-term what dodd-frank is going to do. they were only done with 20% of it. the second thing was rogoff yesterday said nothing's changed. the moral hazard thick with moral hazard and they need to make banks equity based, not debt based or it's always going to be a problem. >> i hear the name elizabeth warren not mentioned in all of this? >> if you go to cnbc.com, i did ask him who are the people in congress to watch. and he said naturally she is the one to watch. she's probably going to have a bigger bigger -- she is credible to a number of people. she has an agenda with the banks. and she's a potential candidate. >> so the drum beat on breaking up the banks.

she made that comment b on the floor of the senate earlier this year. got a lot of attention when you took aim at citigroup. you'll hear a lot of it's too big to fail and we haven't solved that problem yet. but you were going to say something? >> well to paraphrase the song i think breaking up is bad to do. you know or on an international basis, all the firms want a big name. you're going to go to other firms. banks hold $3 trillion of reserves now. you know with with the qe that's a cushion like we've never had before. i think there's a lot of overwriting on dodd-frank that needs to be scaled back. >> what would you do first? >> yes, equity layers.

and part of it could be the reserves we now have there. >> are you a believer that the firms are still, quote, unquote, too big to fail? meaning if a jpmorgan or wells were to run into trouble, do you believe the mechanism that's been created through dodd-frank to ultimately wind down an institution would work and there would be enough confidence that it would work that the government wouldn't have to step in to do something more drastic? >> what you want to do is provide enough equity or people that are going to be hurt if the bank over-levers. and then once you do that there's no incentive to over-lever it. there are trillions of dollars that will be there. that's the whole question. once you have enough of that equity cushion there, i think it takes care of itself. it's part of the government to

step in for almost everyone to snep at a crisis. so in some sense you're never going to have a system that's totally going to be privately secure. >> well, we're not dissuading senator warren from running in any way. if she doesn't get the nomination, i think she should run as an independent. i think we need warren for president campaign. i do. >> those viewers who don't appreciate the sarcasm dripping -- >> there's no sarcasm. no. i'm sincere. >> can use your position here. >> i sincerely want her to run. i do. >> counterbalance. he's hoping this will -- >> just like your you're spearheading ted cruz's campaign. >> we just had a final counting of the t.a.r.p. and the bailouts and we know the financial system

not general motors but the financial system paid back more than than we put in. go back 15 years ago, 20 years ago, savings and loan crisis. lost half a trillion dollars. and then no one says anything. hey, what was wrong then? >> you remember eliot spitzer? you can make a career trashing the financial sector. you will vault to the forefront of the left by doing this. it's as obvious as that to me at this point. >> there are always going to be people that hate the bankers. it did not cost us money -- >> was it kill the lawyers? who was kill the bankers? that was andrew jackson? that was one of them. right, andrew? >> kill the bankers? >> yeah. anyway, thank you, mary. you're going to watch anyway? >> it's at 3:00 i'll be working, joe.

>> all right. coming up -- is golson still -- >> no, he's going to start malik malik. golson is expected to see playing time. >> have you watched? okay. i have someone to talk sports to. coming up, some big movers including one in the oil field sector. and then fallout from the nfl's black monday. four coaches, two general managers are out just one day after the end of the regular season. oh, boy. dave briggs is here to break it down. we're waiting for him just to see what he's wearing. and it took lebron james just 30 years to amass $72 million. i think that's wrong. i think he made $72 million in a year. i think his net worth is more than that. we're going to look at that in business ahead. "squawk box" will be right back.

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home and auto. lamp! squares. stupid, dumb. lines. [ alarm rings ] no! home and auto bundle from progressive. saves you money. yay, game night, so much fun. so ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts? that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees from the bank where no branches equals great rates. let's take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. small cap civeo warning its first quarter and full revenue

number wills fall well below. the provider also suspending its dividend and announcing plans to cut it workforce by 30% in canada. civeo blames caps in oil spending. and american realty capital is a new target of core vex management. core vex believes that american realty shares are undervalued and expects to have strategy discussions with management. and watch the shares of tesla. they could get a boost from news that china plans to extend sales subsidies on electric and fuel vehicles out in 2020. those subsidies had been scheduled to expire at the end of next year. did you see that sports car tesla? it goes 400 miles on a charge. you could go l.a. to san francisco on charge. >> you get one of those?

>> no. i saw it. i need a back seat. i do. i have to put the seat up and everything. but if we have to we can do that. i don't think this one has a back seat. but teslas are really fast. really fast. but now did you see the latest? electric cars are not that clean. the gasoline seems to bes a clean overall because of the power grid. >> because of how it's -- well there's always been a question of where it starts and where it ends. coming up next the faithful in ann arbor singing hail to the victors this morning. the big money details and the ripple effects. jim harbaugh heading back to michigan. after the break -- i don't want to screw up your --

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according to sports scan info nike saw a single style of air jordan sales during a three-hour period. it is the air jordan legend blue. reportedly sold 342,000 pairs at an average price of $379 and additional 337,000 pairs in kid sizes averaging about $142 a pair. >> those are cool shoes. i used to have some jordans.

>> those are boring. they're all white. they look like nurse's shoes. >> who are you? >> i'm dave briggs here. >> college bowl season is in full season. that means here comes the swag. is that your name? >> swaggy d. >> that's good for a rapper. this year's bowl participants are expected to rake in nearly $5.5 million, an 11% increase over the previous year. the amount michigan is shelling out to bring former wolverine jim harbaugh back to coach as alma mater. here to talk about all things college football also black monday in the nfl, so many things, dave briggs. anchor with nbc sports. okay. i confess. i was watching texas a&m/west virginia yesterday. i could care less who wins but i needed it. i needed something. >> and that's what the bowl games -- the attendance is down six straight years. no one's showing up to watch these things. but more than a million and a half people are watching every bowl game. the business is still booming.

nop one wants to go in person. but you mentioned the bowl swag. bowl swag is up as you said 11%. there's good stuff. guys can't get paid yet to play football, but they get paid essentially to go to a bowl game. they can get $550 in merchandise from the bowl committee. $400 from their school. $400 from the conference as well. what do they get? they get stuff like underarmour gear and fat heads. i thought who has the bigger head than you, joe? so i brought custom fat heads. >> i like that. >> those go to all the quick lane bowl participants. >> thank you very much. >> you're going to be becky today. i'm sorry. i thought becky would be here. but they get great stuff. a nice little perk for guys. 38 bowl giems. that's a record this year. plus the national title record.

>> i think that those games because of the playoff way they're doing it i think they're going to do well. are they not? >> televisionwise. >> is it going to be down in some respect? >> well look. these bcs games, if you will. the playoff games, through the roof. we're talking about -- >> aren't those two great matchups? >> perfect matchups. giant programs. national followings. probably record television ratings. you've got alabama ohio state. >> you've got two heisman quarterbacks against each other. has that ever happened before? >> that has happened before but not in a long long time. we have had two heisman players in a bowl game. but not to this sense. but it's going to be a tremendous college football playoff. >> i took friday off because of that. because of the later game. i'm sick of the tide rolling. i like them and respect them and like saban and everything else but i've had enough. i'm ready for something else.

we did see auburn that was sweet. >> you won't see ohio state beat alabama. >> why are they going to play the game then briggs? >> it's my thing. >> how many points are you giving me? >> i'll give you eight. >> 38. fine. >> a whopping eight points. >> what else were we talking about? lebron's 30th birthday today. he makes more money in a year -- >> his net worth is reported at $72 million which is hard to fathom. >> no. no. >> this guy made $450 million over his career in endorsements and salary. >> that's wrong. >> he made $49 million alone last year. >> so he's made $450 million. >> yes. it's also tiger woods' birthday. >> if it were your taxes that you liked, he would be down to

that. >> how much money does the guy spend? >> i don't know. you're the numbers guy. can you get it down to $72 million? >> it's also tiger's birthday. 39. >> that's an interesting story this year for tiger. although it didn't look good in the tournament he played. >> it did not. he was about 30 stroke it is back. but he likes how long he was hitting the ball. but, look. he's a mess on the short game. we were talking about jim harbaugh. >> i mean i think college football if you can get paid more than in the pros why not go back to your alma mater and live in ann arbor? >> if you're jim harbaugh and you ruffled feathers with the general manager in san francisco and couldn't get along, how are you going to go back to the college system and deal with booster, athletic director, school president academic standards. >> there are ways he can. >> $48 million over six years is a lot of money. >> then we had black monday too.

suddenly mark sanchez is a great quarterback. maybe there was something to the rex ryan not getting as much as they could out of the players. maybe they needed to go. that last game i was thinking maybe they should let him stay. >> when you see smith go for three touchdowns. the defensive line looking crazy. >> he's got a foot fetish and a tattoo. there's a lot of things to like about this guy. >> well there is a lot to like with the foot fetish. but 12-20 over the last two years. they hired a general manager who was a cap guy. >> we have to go. we never have enough time. do not show his socks. there's a curse word on his socks. >> wow. >> thanks dave. will wall street keep dancing to pitbull in the new year? we've got the low down after the break.

air disaster. searchers have found wreckage from the airasia plane that lost control with air traffic control on sunday. we're going to bring you a live update from singapore. crude rude. surprise oil falling to the lowest level in more than five years. we'll tell you what it means for american drillers and investors. so called sin stocks can be

profitable for investors, but will they take a hit as people make new year's resolutions? the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. and this still doesn't do him justice. in terms of the real size of his head given all of the things that at a young age that you've accomplished. >> you mean it's getting bigger? >> no i think that is to scale. >> and you try to pop it. >> becky quick is off. no. search and rescue. this is the unfortunate development that happened before the journal went to press. the journal at this point still -- they hadn't found it.

but rescue workers have found the debris from that missing airliner because there are bodies we've heard as many as 40 bodice off the coast of borneo island from the airasia plane that went missing on sunday. martin soong joins us now. i hesitate to say it. you really can't say that at least i found it because for the families there was still hope that it would be a better outcome. but you just think of the one that's still missing and there's a resolution but not the one anyone wanted. >> indeed. you're absolutely right. the latest we have is this. the recovery efforts to get to the bodies and also the wreckage of airasia flight 8501. they hit a hitch. it's down to weather. bad weather. they're dealing with waves of up to seven to ten feet so they've temporarily stopped recovery operations. but search and rescue authorities say they will

continue or resume when the waves and also the tides in the water permit. and remember it's nighttime out here in asia and in the search area. so even though the waters where the bodies and also the wreckage are located, it's pretty shallow, the waves are posing to be a bit of a challenge. so we're waiting to see what happens and whether the weather improves and allows them to continue doing what they're supposed to do. earlier today, in fact about an hour ago we had indonesia's president at the search and rescue center the crisis management center which is onshore very near the crash site which is in the ocean about halfway between surabaya and singapore. he met with the obviously very distraught families together with the airasia chief. he said indonesia's prior to right now is to recover the bodies of the 162 passengers and crew on board airasia 8501. so we just hope and pray that the weather improves. they're going to be able to

continue this recovery effort. at this stage there's also some discrepancy over the number of bodies that have been recovered. we told you earlier on this morning your time that the indonesian navy had said 40 bodies had been recovered. now, the indonesian search and rescue agency which is the coordinating body says that's not true. only three. we can only confirm that three bodies have been recovered. so why the wide discrepancy? we don't know. but we're going with the number three right now just to be conservative and safe. you'll have to appreciate that in a situation and a crisis like this, a disaster like this there's bound to be at least a little bit of confusion. so the president also extending his deepest condolences, his sympathies and prayers to the families of the 162 passengers and family on board. also thanking all the nations that have helped in this earth. remember, this is a multi-national effort now

involving nine countries including the u.s. which is sending a destroyer to the scene with two sea hawk helicopters on board to see what they are do to help as the operation continues. >> thanks for that clarification, martin soong. there is a big difference. it doesn't -- they talk about the fog of war. not necessarily war. >> why didn't the black box work? that's a big question. >> they've retrofit a lot of their planes but not this one. this one hadn't been -- and then do you know why we don't have gps on every plane? >> yes. historically the airlines thought it was cost prohibitive to stream information from the black boxes. always questions among pilots about whether they would want everything recorded and streamed in its entirety. >> why? >> there's always been a view that you know you want that

last hour or half hour before perhaps an accident but, you know, the everyday conversations that the pilots have. ultimately what you want if you're trying to do this properly is you want the entire conversation and all the information from the plane streamed live. >> but just get the gps to work continuously. we're in the car and see it all the time. rain or shine. >> let's tell you about some of the other stories we're watching this morning. oil shock being perhaps the biggest. the price of oil hitting major lows once again this morning. both west texas and brent crude touching their lowest level since may of 2009. also more news from the energy world. the u.s. onshore drilling rig count fell by 37 last yeek. that's the third straight week of declines.

and new york congressman michael grimm has decided to resign. the decision comes less than a week after the republican pled guilty on a felony tax evasion charge. admitted to underreporting receipts from a restaurant he ran. employing undocumented immigrants. didn't we have him on this program? >> uh-huh. bigtime conservative. said all the right things. >> and he said he was going to stay in his role. >> tough probably. now onto the markets. the nasdaq now 5% away from its record high. been awhile. the s&p on pace for eight quarters of con sebsecutive gains. can the markets channel pitbull? if you're wondering why we're playing that. don't stop the party.

here to look ahead is janney's chief investment strategist and our guest host jeremy siegel. and you specifically requested pitbull, mark? is that your idea? >> i'm not sure where to come up with pitbull. it was andrew who said will they keep dancing in 2015? and my mind circled to gene kelly. either way, an aspect to 2015 is one that's going to be upbeat in nature. i think 2015 will again build on the gains of 2014 which obviously built on 2013 spectacular lift in equity prices. although i do think you're going to have to have happy feet because the market is going to be more volatile as it attempts to digest a lot of the cross currents that market participants will be facing next year. >> hopefully gene kelly and not andrew in terms of dancing,

right? that was a bad time to keep dancing. so eight to ten. i really get nervous that everybody -- what is -- that you eight to ten? seriously? >> we fall into probably that five to seven range, but eight to ten isn't all that far off. i worry a little bit that we like you had mentioned fall into this consensus range of call it even 5% to 10%. likely the market is going to be up 20 or down 20 given the fact the market will try to do what it can to confuse the most people. i worry a little bit about that. oftentimes the consensus is right. we had a consensus view on equity prices that we'd be up against double digits. that's been surpassed a little bit. but directionally we fallen in a widely held view that equity prices were going to build on 2013's gains handsomely and they

have. >> these are all great fundamental reasons to stay on. jeremy jeremy, it just makes me think. we talked about how great you've been at staying long and then the market we also talk about that went from 800 to 18,000. it's been good to be long. and so the fundamentals have warranted that. how does a fundamental guy ever know that if you just use fundamentals you're not going to know when we reach the top. >> well you never know all. 2000 was pretty easy to figure out even though all the euphoria about tech a lot of people said this is a new world. >> but not in 2008. >> 2008 valuations were not unreasonable. and i looked at it and -- >> technically you wouldn't have known either. >> what you had to see was the

over-extension in these products. and if they went down the system went down. and, hey, i missed it. alan greenspan missed it. and i think that that was a major event. >> let me ask mark then too. mark, if you purely look at coincident fundamentals and the market has a discounting mechanism out in nine months, how would you ever know? or you just never sell? you are just peter lynch and buy and hold. how will you know if all you use is fundamental? >> well i think that's always very difficult. obviously you can look at measures like the simple pe or the shiller pe adjusted price earnings ratio. none of those mechanisms are necessarily great at timing the market. they do point to levels of under or over-valued. and have you be sidelined or missing out on opportunities. but i think that's where it's

important to weave the technical aspect into them. i think that helps. it doesn't preclude you from participating in a decline, but it may sideline you earlier than going down fully with the market in a massive downdraft like in 2008. >> is janney saying get out completely? >> we're not completely eliminating bonds from our portfolio. they have strategic value for clients trying to temper equity. but we think there's value in the municipal bond market. yields have blown out as a consequence of the energy patch. but on balance, we're saying you know measure your maturities monitor your duration. stay higher quality and use it as a strategic inflation to act as a volatility rather than expose your portfolio to them out of proportion. because obviously the return on investment is relatively abysmal

now and likely for the foreseeable future. >> mark thank you. jeremy siegel will be with us for the rest of the show. coming up it is the x-factor that every company is addressing. cyber security. we're going to talk to the man working on enterprise security products for hewlett-packard. then the stocks that succeed based on resolutions. we'll look at sin stocks coming up at 8:40. what billionaires have in common. then port problems on the west coast getting worse. we'll tell you about it in a minute. she inspires you. no question about that. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now are indicated lower, but not a lot. down 12 points on the dow. if you're driving in your car right now, down three on the s&p. and down 2.34 on the nasdaq which is at 4800. it's almost gotten all the way back to 5,000. much more reasonable than it was in the year 2000. 14 years ago when it first hit 5,000 and when we built this building. the nasdaq 5,000 building.

we did. look at it. it's beautiful. >> the building nasdaq built. >> we were supposed to be at 15,000 by now. took a little turn on the way. let's talk about cyber security this morning. concern still taking center stage not only for individuals but also companies. how the security breaches are changing corporate agendas and what are ways to safeguard. we're talking to the senior vice president of enterprise security products at hewlett-packard. good morning, art. >> good morning, how are you? >> good thank you. let's start with sony for a second because i'm curious if you've been following the news. of course last week the u.s. government fbi blaming north korea. now there seems to be some question mark as to whether it really was them or somebody else possibly an insider inside sony. do you have any insight into any of that before we get into the conversation? >> yeah i think they're not mutually exclusive. if you think about the history of north korea, they partnered with a lot of people in

military -- different kind of military actions. whether it's china or russia or iran syria as well. and in cyber security in particular, there's at lo of partnering between the different actors there. so it wouldn't be unusual and not mutually exclusive if they partner with someone else to get the skills they needed to perpetrate this. >> were you surprised and there was a story today that some cyber experts said they were surprised that the u.s. government came out as quickly and as forcefully pointing the finger at north korea given the question markets that still remain. >> i think we haven't seen all the evidence so it's clear they have other evidence that's probably classified. it would take a look to be able to do that. especially because the u.s. government did come out with a policy statement saying that they were allowed to use physical attacks for a cyber security attack. and so it would be have to be pretty well founded in the government for them to want to do this.

and so it was surprising they came out so fast but it must mean they have some overwhelming evidence we haven't seen yet. >> so what is your bigger worry? come 2015 your biggest worry when it comes to cyber security. is the worst conceivable thing -- i don't know even know what's conceivable that you could imagine could happen. and then what do we do about it? >> i think the complicated thing going on right now is cyber gives a lot more geopolitical power to countries that don't have the wealth necessarily to compete with the military buildups that other more wealthier nations do. and in fact the wealthier nations are typically more vulnerable. and so you see these rogue states whether it's north korea or iran able to build up cyber security or war capabilities and then be able to attack more industrialized countries because we're more vulnerable. more of our infrastructure is controlled by digital technology. less of their infrastructure. and so attacks on us in this way

is much nor danling. and counterattacks in the same way with the same kind of force have less impact on their economies. >> are there industries you think are more vulnerable than others? >> i think any industry that's connected to the internet. and if you think about the u.s. economy today, most of our companies are connected to the internet. a lot of our devices are connected to the internet. even our homes now. >> tell me if this is realistic. i don't know if you've got paperless. >> not quite yet. >> i've gone paperless on banking. and my great sort of nightmare is waking up one morning and thinking that whatever is online if i were to go onto my chase account or whatever and either the number is zero or the numbers are just not what they're supposed to be and having no form of record of that. is that something conceivable i should worry about? >> i don't think that's conceivable. i think there's -- i mean

obviously anything is possible in the technology space. there are records, backups. there's a lot of ways they would understand that. i don't think that's something to worry about. i definitely think there are ways for them to damage you. people who use debit cards are more at risk to have their bank accounts drained than people who use credit cards. and so those are things definitely to think about. >> what about the nightmare scenario that amy pascal and folks at sony found themselves in that somehow their entire trove of e-mail shows up. is gmail any more secure? is google any more secure than yahoo! mail than aol mail than your corporate server? >> the reality is if there's an attacker out there that wants to do damage whether it's to reputation or others being able to attack these companies and take their e-mails or steal information from them digitally, it's possible regardless of where the data is. >> it's possible.

and so is there anything you can do to avoid this though? >> i think this is where investment and security technologies, i think understanding where your information is being able to protect your sensitive information more specifically through encryption we did some research and published some research. there's three specific things you can do as a company to lower he cost of risk. the first one is invest in security intelligence systems. about 21% higher. it's not just the technology, it's also the people in processes. the second one is encrypting your data. that adds about 17% to 18% on investments that you make. doing that in combination with training your people and making sure that they know how to use the tools and is can run the security infrastructure will help you get better results for security. >> okay, art. we're going to leave it there and cross our fingers and hopefully do more than that. happy new year.

>> happy new year to you. >> appreciate it. coming up, the holiday season coming to an end. it always does. that means beginning of the holiday season for one side of the aisle, the tax season. details next. and then why aren't you the next mark cuban? it could be the way that you perceive opportunity. the results of an extensive billionaire study coming up at 8:40 a.m. eastern.

welcome back to "squawk box." tax season. tax season. it's the most wonderful time of the year. it's going to start on time. yeah, despite a last-minute tax law passed by congress last month. the irs announcing that taxpayers can start filing their tax returns on january 20th. there was a possibility that the start of tax season would be delayed after that last-minute bill extended about 50 tax breaks. and a piracy update. in a related story, hbo's "game of thrones" was the most downloaded tv show for the year for the third straight year. i still haven't seen the final one where the father apparently -- >> don't say. >> that according to data from torrent freak.

the season finale was downloaded more than 8 million times from bit torn and "walking dead" was second. "the big bang theory" was third. that's the guy, apparently. >> uh-huh. >> yeah. and they're going to do it again. how many -- neither one of those are not your. you're a "newsroom," "house of cards," "girls." >> less so. >> have you seen "girls"? >> of course i've seen "girls." >> i've never seen it. not that there's anything wrong with it. is it network? >> that's hbo. >> oh. >> it's not tv. it's hbo. >> so there's a lot of going on. stuff that would embarrass me. >> probably. >> you've seen it? >> i've watched a few episodes. it's not on the general network. it could not be on the general network. coming up we're going to

talk vices and stocks and how they perform during new year's resolution time. morgan brennan joins us with that next. male announcer ] fedex® has solutions to enable global commerce that can help your company grow steadily and quickly. great job. (mandarin) ♪ ♪ cut it out. >>see you tomorrow. ♪ ♪

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. here is what is making headlines. we are half an hour away from the latest data on the home prices. the shiller report expecting a 4.7 year over year increase. and the latest data on consumer confidence. that's due out at 10:00 eastern time. cheaper gasoline is among the things to give that a big boost for the december read egg. and if you thought you'd raise time using retailers' in-store pickup option think again. you save just an average of 96 seconds compared to just going to the store, searching for the items. study conducted by retails firm stella service. >> it's a little weird. then going to pick it up. >> that's the whole omni-channel macy's everybody is doing it.

>> to make sure they have it or pick it up -- >> just easier to get it. >> i prefer to press the button and wait for the u.p.s. man. >> yeah. or fedex. >> or fedex. >> and check this out. releasing a picture of the prince receiving pepsi ceo. they were said to speak about economic issues. look to the left of the. icture picture and you'll see what caught our attention. cnbc is on the tv. twice i've had a picture of me sent by somebody with the prince. which is always kind of neat that we're on in saudi arabia. i think i have one. i should send that over. >> are they drinking pepsi or coffee? what are they doing there? definitely not coca-cola. indra would not do coca-cola. >> no. we haven't had him on in awhile.

>> we'd love to have him on. and indra too. >> indra too. preebl see her in davos. uh-oh. not supposed to mention. supposed to wait until the week before we go. >> who told you that? >> nobody really. if you plan to celebrate new year's eve in vegas, they could get three inches of snow. a snowstorm is headed. las vegas averages .2 inch of snow a year. but people go there to sit by the pool. but flagstaff, another matter entirely. i've been through there when it's snowing like crazy. tonight and thursday morning, the forecast calls for one to three inches in las vegas. >> there you have it. also santa claus says he knows who's naughty and who's nice. and the bad boys get coal. but on wall street sometimes being bad is a very good thing.

and our maher ganorgan brennan joins us to talk more. >> you make that bad sound good. all the new year's resolution people make after the holidays they play out in e the market. booze makers tobacco companies, casino operators. with the help of kensho we found out they have performed in the first two weeks of a new year. sure enough, many of the naughty names sell off in early january. so alcohol producer constellation brands drops more than 1.5% in the first two weeks of january. diageo 1.2%. cigarette maker vector drops 1.5%. the exception, altria group. that tends to gain 2% in early january. looking at the vice group that outperforms, casino operators. las vegas sands surges 6% to 7%.

mgm, about 6%. new year's eve trips and then of course the holidays in china that tend to benefit are part of the reasons we see that. but keep in mind over the past ten years, most sin stocks have out-performed the s&p 500 meaning those january resolutions don't seem to last for investors at least. guys back to you. >> thank you for that. thank you for that morgan. >> yeah. i lost him. let's get back to our guest host jeremy siegel. we've been all over the place today. the nasdaq you have never specifically focused on. >> no. >> but do you have your facts at your fingertips on multiples? >> i have a few -- >> it's a totally different index now, isn't it? >> just to give you an example, we were talking about 2000

looking back and that's when the nasdaq peaked a little over 5,000. back in 2000 the tech sector of the s&p 500, so we're not talking about the crazy internet stocks. these were profitable stocks. were selling for 90 price earnings ratio. all right. today the s&p 500 tech sector is 15th. wow. that's a world of difference. i mean it's actually a little less than the rest of it. so there's a few stocks you know, social media stocks that might be a little bit rich. always trying to figure out amazon and so on. but overall, wow. i mean you know i think nasdaq is on such stronger foundations that can beat the record. >> it's almost a pr ratio. priced to revenue ratio. >> yeah. and high expected ratio that were at 50 or 100. it made no sense back then.

>> so fundamentally you can't say hey nasdaq back to 5,000. it's a totally different -- >> it's an absolutely different world. and the same thing about just as i said, we're just about a percent or two on the inflation corrected basis getting s&p back to 2,000 but earnings are more than twice as high. >> so basically inflation adjusts and people haven't made money in the stock market since 2000. >> since 2000 on a price component. raised some dividends there. from march of 2000 you're still behind. >> which would explain sort of the -- it's almost an indifference to the stock market by young people. i still don't think we've come back from 2008. >> we haven't. >> people say i need my money. i'm excited about being in the stock market. i'm excited about preparing for the future. we are not there.

>> we had a decline in the s&p 500 during the financial crisis. we've had two major bear markets the last 15 years. the financial crisis. wow, that's a couple of huge shocks to the system. from the great impression it took almost 30 years for people to get back nerve. it won't take that long this time. but it's beginning to wear off and that's why i think that migration is still going to be there and it's going to be there on the income side because interest rates we're not going to ever get back. not ever but it's going to be years and years to get back to what people think is decent returns on their cash. >> we need more teslas and gopros. we're getting them. where people -- they're going to talk to you about them and, you know cocktail parties, cabs things like that. we need people -- >> here's the question. we need that for the market to go higher. but isn't that always -- >> then that's the end. >> isn't that always the end?

isn't it always the end when there are these sort of high fliers where the math doesn't make sense where everybody's excited and they're talking about it at cocktail parties? >> yeah. when they invest a huge group of stocks. even the few we talked about that are selling on a revenue basis may be 1% of the market value of all stocks. but back in 2000 you were 50% of the crazy stocks. they were all 200 billion stocks. cisco was over a hundred times earnings. yahoo! was over a hundred times earnings. oracle. >> does it matter whether retail investors are buying individual stocks and actually playing the market -- >> it does. >> -- or whether they're buying index funds -- >> it's much better when they're buying index funds. longer term. people buy individual stocks -- i mean -- >> but if we ever get to a moment where people are actually buying individual names again in a meaningful way saying did you

see such and such or whatever. >> i may start to worry a little. >> and when millennials are saying i love andrew ross sorkin on "squawk box" and he mentioned a certain stock. >> or the so-called water cooler. everyone saying i just made it in this. this was the buzz in 2000. we're not anywhere near that. >> okay. but you would also institute a rule that an nfl team has to have a winning record to be in the post season. >> absolutely. yes. or there's a third wild card. >> or there's a third wild card. >> absolutely. >> and philadelphia would be in wouldn't they? >> yes. >> could carolina still be in? >> no i don't think so. >> okay. right. >> losing record. >> jeremy will be with us for the rest of the show. coming up when we return five habits of self-made billionaires. we're going to talk to an author who did an extensive study of billionaires and found out

they're not dreamers they're doers. he's going to explain what he means when we come back.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. what is the secret to a self-made billionaire's success? our next guest argues that billionaires found opportunities in highly competitive mature markets and they're focused on producing, not dreaming. here with us is the head of global thought leadership and he's the coauthor of "the

self-made billionaire effect: how extreme producers create massive value." it hits the presses and bookstores today. congratulations on the book. >> thank you. >> so biggest surprise for you if you were to sort of pick out one insight that you think drives these billionaires and got them to this place? >> the biggest surprise of the book for me and my co-author was that they made their fortunes in highly competitive businesses. four out of five of them were in things like clothing or retail or coffee. you know? and we really didn't except that. >> one of the things he said you need that monopoly. >> i wish i were as successful as peter thiel, but the data doesn't support him. you really see that what happens is that these people bring together five attributes. they look at imagination, execution, risk taking timing

and great producer performer leadership to create new markets. >> so i have a question about this which is what was their age, most of these people when they became -- when they started on the ascent if you will? >> about a third of them started on the ascent at about 30 or before. about 2/3 of them did it between 40 and 50. >> really? >> yeah. it's later than you think. >> also peter thiel, one of his sort of foundation investment decisions is your age. i believe if you're over 30 or 35, he thinks you're kind of done. >> i think that -- yeah. >> by the way i'm over 35 so we're all done. >> there's no hope. i think peter may be looking at a particular part of the market which is more tech oriented. as i say most of our self-made billionaires are not in the tech area. >> is there a particular billionaire whose story you think was the most interesting? >> well i think that sarah

blakely is really pretty interesting. >> of spanx fame. >> when you take a look -- i was talking to mary ann in the makeup room and she was saying everybody's cut their feet off panty hose and used them to hide panty lines. but sarah had the gumption to raeld to sit down and explain the product that they said they would buy it. that he decided to go along with it. >> when you talk about the five habits, what does empathetic imagination mean. >> the emotional side of things as well as thinking about the rational side. so it's about seeing where a market's going to go. you look at jeff lurie when he spent $185 million to buy the philadelphia eagles, everybody thought he was crazy. "the wall street journal" had an article about what a vanity purchase it was. but going to get more

diversified, that american football was going to b a great product. >> what folks might describe as irrational. i've talked to successful people who say if i knew whey knew now, i never would have done this. i would have thought it would have been impossible myself. >> well, one of the thing b things we notice is these people aren't dreamers. when they see an opportunity they have to make it real. that's the big thing. they might with hindsight say i wouldn't have done it but they had to do it is what we saw. >> do you believe that this type of success is repeatable? meaning, you look at a bill gates. he created a company in microsoft. he had two really hit products right? >> uh-huh. >> first in windows. maybe dos. but windows and then clearly the office product. google's had a couple. but a lot of people say everyone's got one great idea in them. >> well what we saw is that these people generally had two or three or sometimes even four

or more successful businesses. look at a guy like john paul degiorio. the example you gave is true but the overall data shows they're serial entrepreneurs. >> final question, are you born with it or is it something you can learn? do you think being an entrepreneur which all these people are to some extent, is something that just comes with you when you show up on the scene? or you can go to a class at wharton or elsewhere and learn -- or harvard business school and learn to do that? >> you have to look at it like distribution. there are some people who are naturals just like in sports. and there are some people who are never going to do it. but the vast majority of us sit in the middle and can learn. that was really the purpose of the book. is that people can learn from these self-made billionaires how to be better corporate executives better investors better employees. it's that mass in e the middle that we hope people will take a look at the book and maybe learn something new.

>> i thought it was interesting, talk about it was more traditional areas. maybe not tech. we all know that warren buffett never invested in any tech at all until he finally did microsoft. he was already a multi-billionaire by then. seeing the value in the ordinary area. peter thiel, he is on the tech edge. but you don't have to be there to do very very well. >> absolutely. they usually bring together a couple different factors that define an advantage. when you look at starbucks, it's not just about the coffee. it's the coffee, branding, labor practices, sourcing practices, positioning. that's what you see as people come up with a new system and get it all together. >> did any of them say i want to be a billionaire like at 20? that would be interesting. i think they just wanted to do something well and it happened for them. >> that is the thing we saw again and again. another interesting thing is that there are a couple who announced they were going to do

it, but they were a rarity. it was really about excellence. take a guy like who started morningstar. he saw there was a business opportunity there. he said look. i'm in a business that's just compounding. and that'll be great. >> i said final question before. but now a final final which is this. how much of it is luck? meaning the timing -- i look at a mark cuban who created a great interesting business got paid an enormous amount for it because of the timing of the moment. and then obviously he's done amazing things after with it. >> yeah. i mean if you look at broadcast.com, i would argue that he saw a bunch of the things things that are now other companies were in broadcast.com. if their owner kept going strong, they could have had more. what we saw is again and again, if they hit failures they keep going. it's not about luck. it's about continuing and persistence. >> thank you. "the self-made billionaire effect" on book store shelves.

>> coming up, a slowdown at west coast ports is costing companies millions.

a dock workers' slowdown at

west coast ports is getting worse. jane wells joins us with more. >> reporter: you know we are seven months into this port slowdown with no end in sight here at the nation's largest port complex where 40% of ship cargo comes through. caught in the middle are manufacturers. we've got two, another two down here. their stuff is stuck on these ships. you may recognize one of them. >> it is the traditional bed with contemporary touches on it. >> jane seymour and michael had a successful partnership designing furniture. much of her new line cannot get into show rooms for her target consumer. >> it's aspirational. people want magic in their houses. they want magic in the bedroom. then it spreads to the dining room.

then next thing you know they've got magic everywhere. that's what they want. >> reporter: it's going to take magic to get these things off these ships in a timely manner. michael says none of his samples came to a recent show spent $4 million to be at a show lost millions of sales. there is a huge furniture show in las vegas in a few weeks. >> if you look at the ports, there are 15 20 ships not unloaded. we don't know what to tell our customers. we don't know when to get them. >> reporter: other retailers, lululemon lowered its full year guidance because of congestion. an analyst says vertically integrated retailers with the least scale and most fashion sensitivity are most at risk. according to "l.a. times" fred smith told analysts the slowdown in the west coast ports has been a much bigger deal than people think.

dock workers blame the terminal operators saying they are letting in these big super containers. operators are saying dock workers are intentionally slowing this down. a federal mediator is in touch with both sides. amini says they have their stuff here. if they turn these ships around that's not really practical. they just have to sit and wait and they're stuck. back to you. >> thank you for that. happy new year. coming up a get rich quick scheme is backfiring leaving a man stuck with hundreds of dollars of movie tickets. es me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn.

there is an ohio man thought he was making a good investment when he bought 50 tickets to "the interview" at a local theater. his goal was to sell them online. sony decided to stream the film and that meant demand for tickets to plunge. jason best wants his money back. he tried to return to the tickets to the theater before the showing arguing movietickets.com had a refund policy posted. i appreciate the idea. >> very entrepreneurial.

just a bad investment. sometimes you make an investment and sometimes it works. >> no no no. >> the facts change the news changes. >> do you think sony will make money on that? i think eventually they will. >> i don't know. they've got to get to $75 million. they made $18. >> i think they did the hacking themselves and knew this was a bomb. >> their image notched up a bit, i think. i think a little bit upgrade. >> it's been something to -- as you say, therefore but the grace of god. >> would make a great movie. >> the whole thing? >> sony. >> thank you, jeremy. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now.

good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen and simon hobbs at the new york stock exchange. david and jim are off today. the penultimate trading session of 2014. premarket red after the s&p's 54rd record of the year. case-shiller housing data is out. no relief in oil though. a new 5