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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 30, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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but he gave me so much more. he really taught me that true wealth is in our hearts and not in our wallets. >> leon, thank you so much for being here. the book is called "the kindness diaries." you can find it today, and a great read for this time of year in particular. thank you again. thank you to the whole panel. on that note, it is now time for "fast money" with melissa lee and the gang. >> all right, thanks a lot, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. our traders tonight are tim, john, paul, and brian. we talk a whole lot about tesla here on this program, but tonight we are talking a different electric vehicle name. china's candy technology is getting a boost today. we've got the details in an exclusive interview with the representative of the company tonight. but tonight's top story, greek drama. goal rising 1.5%.
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so does it eventually spread here to the u.s.? are we discounting too much that contagion will, in fact, be contained? >> i don't think we're discounting too much. the only way that greece will ultimately matter, if for some reason it causes the germans to really object to qe, to buying greek bonds, to that type of thing. there's still some uncertainty about that, and that's why you saw a lot of the european stocks down today. they were down quite a bit. germany was down 1.5%. so if the ecb does not do qe, then you will have that contagion coming over here. more money coming into the financial system and flows coming into the u.s. >> what is consensus at this point that the ecb will, in fact, step in and purchase sovereign bonds, so therefore if it is going to do that, wouldn't there be asset inflation at that point? >> there should be. i'm one of the people that thinks germany is going to rally next year, so i don't think this is that big a deal. greece, it could be a very big deal. if you start talking about other breakaway -- if parliament has
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the majority power, they could say, you know, we don't want any part of this european union thing and the germans will say we're out. and there's other breakaway regions, so spain and other places. they will not get a majority, so therefore they cannot dictate the terms yet. i think europe is going to outperform next year. $40 oil, maybe $60 oil. >> so you're long europe. >> i am long. i would recommend earning the cac or the dax, where you have a discount on your pe. >> i've said it's a stealth stimulus, and it continues to be so. not quite as much here. it's denominated and traded in euros over there. but it's priced in dollars.
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because the euro is not 121 or thereabouts, they haven't gotten the benefit of the last 2.5%. i agree. there's like a do not trade with virtually all of these banks in greece. >> the lower currency is a boom to europe? >> the lower energy price. >> but a lower currency, too. >> but it happened helped you out. i'm short germany, short france, i'm on the other side of this, but it hasn't helped yet. we have record-low yields in europe. that hasn't helped the economy at all. we're looking at a disinflationary environment. the biggest nation where they export to is china, which is slowing down. in my mind, even if the ecb does do qe, i think in the long run, europe has massive economic problems and i would even go so far to say they could go into a depression. >> where do you fall on this end of the spreectrum?
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i would suspect you think the u.s. equity rally could peter out because of the flow of funds. >> tim was saying we haven't seen spreads. the spreads in italy were nowhere near where they were in 2011. we're a long ways off. something could happen, yes. it definitely could happen. we're way far from that right now. the currency, the strength of the dollar, that's only been a six-month story right here, where we really saw that surge. so i think you still have some time -- it takes time for these currency effects to kick in. >> what are we looking at today in today's market? >> we went parabolic over the last two weeks. you saw the russell 2,000 hit at an all-time high. it was a very strong environment for equities. today you see some profit-taking. it's the end of the year. moves are exaggerated. >> civeo tanking overnight.
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a there are two in the small cap space that could also get hit. let's bring in the oil services analyst stephen gengaro who joins us on the fast line. thank you for joining us. what is shocking about the story of civeo is this is not the first 50% decline that we have seen in the past six months. where do you stand on this stock? >> civeo is a little unique. they have exposure to a higher cost crude around the world, and australia, negatively impacted by demand out of china. those markets have taken a pretty significant hit from an occupancy perspective. and they ratcheted in expectations, probably three or four months ago. and then again today provided more color, weaker than expected expectations for '15. >> why do you keep a neutral rating on the stock? as you mentioned, it got whacked the last time that you took down guidance just in set. it got whacked again overnight.
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what's the next shoe to drop here, that they're not going to meet their debt covenants? >> i think the most important thing behind our neutral rating right now is when we look at the stock, they have a three and a half times coverage ratio. we think we'll see this company delever over the next year. i think that's the key behind the suspension of the dividend as well. to remain in compliance with the debt covenance. >> in terms of the ones we should be worried about, which ones are you flagging for us tonight? the names that have the most exposure to the u.s. land market, which has historically been the most volatile market
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from an activity decline, we have a buyer rating on the name superior energy services. we are at about 95 cents from 2015 for an earnings perspective. i still think you'll see numbers come down, but we also believe these stocks got hit pretty hard, pretty quickly. so we think it's largely reflected in these stock prices already. >> okay. we're going to leave it there. thanks a lot for your time. where do we stand? he says stick with the big high quality names. >> that's interesting, because i was just butt to say. he gave us some small cap names. i wouldn't go near names like this right now. this is exactly what i didn't want to do in the gold sector. and small cap gold, you don't know what they're going to do. so yes, the services firms -- although, i think services continue to go lower because i think that this has been a place where a premium has been paid.
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these guys have been price givers, not takers and these are guys that are probably at risk. if anything, i like the sbe grittgrit -- integrated names. this is a place where these guys benefit, but these guy s have minted cash. >> you in civeo at all? they do have jana and einhorn in them. and so maybe, even being more weakened, that plays into the hands of the activists. >> yeah. in fairness, late into the day here, i bought it right around $4, closed at $3.90 or something like that, so i like buying it because i like the company, quite frankly. jana partners, and i tried to buy some more in the afterhours. i was unable to, unfortunately. this is one i would be willing to take a shot on because of that severe selloff. people wanting to recognize that loss now. >> are you doing it through the options? >> no. >> it's a $4 stock.
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yeah, i just bought stock. >> time now for our chart on the day. paul hickey with a look at what could be in store for 2015. >> you're looking at the trailing pe ratio of the s&p 500. right now, you have a pe of 18.2 times earnings. longtime average is 15.3. the market is technically overvalued here, above average valuations. so that's not too much of a surprise here. we saw multiple expansion in 2013. but heading into 2014, the pe of the s&p 500, every time we got to 18, we saw a selloff. this was in january. this was in july. and this was towards the end of september. and we saw a selloff. in this most recent rally, we pulled back up again, pulled back. but now we're back above 18. i think the key to watch here going forward into next year, the investors who were selling when we saw these 18 pe levels, if they don't sell, are we entering the next stage of multiple expansion in the bull market, you typically see multiples expand towards the end
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of the bull market in the high teens to 20 level. >> is this a warning sign to you? >> i think it's a warning sign. i think trying to pick a top s based on valuation or even pick a bottom based on valuation is very difficult. one area i look at is total market cap to gdp, that's about 130%. the only time it's been higher at 150% was in 1999-2000. so again, we're looking at a market that is overvalued. but, given the environment, there's all this money out there, why wouldn't we go to bubble territory? why wouldn't it go higher? the market will fall, and this bull market will be over when the central banks cut off t. >> the bear over there. >> that was the point i was trying to make last night. it's all about how much money's flowing around.
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>> i think one of the things that's interesting about paul's chart is you have to assume that earnings are going to go higher. and i don't know that they are going to go higher. i mean, one thing i will say is that while oil is a stimulus and the world is a better place than people think, s&p earnings may come down and we've already started to see some of the strategists downgrade them because of the energy sector, because of the waiting. so just watch that technically, because earnings could come down a bit. >> today, china extended subsidies for electric vehicles and it's not tesla getting a boost. it's candy technologies. we've got a top executive from the company coming on set in a "fast money" exclusive. our traders tell you which 2014 losers will become 2015 winners, when we come back.
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not every stock can be a winner, right? so we're asking which stocks are losers in 2014, which ones can make a comeback in 2015, so let's get the traders' picks on which stocks they think will go from zero to hero, tim seymour. >> i think it's going to be 3-d systems, triple d. the bar is terribly low. massive short interest. these guys still have been largely in the prototype and not
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into the production. it's a place where people really need to be shown. and i think you're at a place where the valuation and the charts say this is a pretty interesting place for the stock. it's not expensive, relative to its peer group. it's trading around 30 times. it's getting to a place where they're starting to roll out in the consumer space. they have significant upside in the metal space. i think they've added new management. a lot of people were very critical that they were stretched thin. it's a name, it's a space, it's very exciting. we saw what momentum can do to the stock. momentum was totally off the charts. the final kick was my daughter last night, when we went to toys 'r' us, let's not go through that, said on her christmas list on 2015 is a 3-d printer. >> really? and how old is she? >> she's 6. it's crazy. >> are you in the stock right now? >> i'm not. >> i thought 33 the stock would hold. it's trickled down to 30, 31. i think you have to take a look at the stock for next year. >> doc. zero to hero? >> cast light health. and cslt. this is a cloud-based play for
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basically keeping health care costs under control. down from the stock was north of 40 at the end of december last year. now it's an $11 stock. so down 71%. that's a zero to hero kind of situation i think. athena health and others have been trying to make a way for themselves in this space. this stock has gone the opposition direction of athena. i like it around this level as either a takeout play or just a rebound next year. >> and you're in this trade via -- >> i am in this trade via just the stock, not the options. >> i look at ford. ford hasn't been hit nearly as hard as these other companies that we've mentioned here. but you look at ford, their sales took a hit this year on the retooling the factories for the f-150. that's coming out this year. that will be online, and that should boost sales here. the average age of vehicles is at a record high, so we still see strong auto sales coming through. but earnings, under ten times
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earnings, over 3% yield, and the analysts don't really like it. so it's got more holds and
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>> great to have you with us. >>. >> really what we found was primarily those competitors are not really chipping away at go-pro's market share. we think go-pro has had an extremely successful q-4 holiday with several outages cited across the country. and lower inventory levels on a month over month basis, which is particularly encouraging exiting the quarter here. >> so you raise your estimates, you raise your price targets. you say it has a competitive value at this point. would imply just about a 12%
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upside from around here. you sound like you're a bull, and yet you've got base clay neutral rating. >> quick correction, apology. we kept our fair value at 73. we did raise estimates. but there's two real factors here for maintaining our sector rating on the stock. the valuation on this stock by anyone's token is very rich. and that's kind of an inarguable point. the second point is when you're looking at the longer-term trajectory, we're giving this company credit here over the next five years or so of cheating unit volumes in the ten-minute range. we think we need to see the upside that would warrant the double-digit -- well into the double-digit millions, to warrant a sustainably higher stock price above our fair value target. that's the basis for our sector rating. >> hey, it's brian kelly. so it seems to me that really -- we've talked about it. that go pro has the technology, but anybody can copy it.
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it all comes down to whether or not it has the marketing and can create this ecosystem. my question is, beyond the numbers, is nick woodman the type of person -- is he a steve jobs-like character, can he pull this off? >> i mean, potentially. the fact that he, you know, figured out seven, eight years ago that this thing could marry up with smart phones and mobility in general and social media and have an incredibly compelling play here was pretty insightful. whether that involves potentially adjacent product categories down the road or obviously the synergies they've talked about they were going to be looking for the next few years with software and media. you know, that remains to be seen. but certainly from a marketing and brand perspective, the company is second to none. certainly their own industry and other industries would, you know, aspire to mimic them. >> all right, going to leave it there. happy new year.
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dr. j, would you rather go pro or amberella? >> amberella. even though i said last night and i still believe that it breaks 50 and trades to the downside, i think it's nice to accumulate amberella around 45-ish. go pro, what i worry about is not those units sold. i worry about this idea of them being a media company. i think people give them far too much credit for being a youtube sort of thing. other than just on somebody else's platform. that's where i think they fall down and miss. i think the street will punish them. >> talked about mobile and why this was in some ways a visionary move. this is exactly why i think this company is way overpriced. we talked about chow me last night. this is the kind of thing they would slap on their next phone and be operating the whole entire package for $300. >> i don't think go-pro has
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flipped. the insiders are selling this stock like crazy. so i think that tells you something here. i think go-pro will be around for a little while, but i don't think owning the stock is going to be a rewarding proposition. coming up, apple having quite the holiday season when it came to the iphone 6. we'll break down the latest undercover numbers right after the break. plus, a cold december for green mountain coffee. we'll tell you why the company is struggling to keep up sales. more "fast money" straight ahead.
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cure rig green mountain kicking off today.
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nielsen coffee data showing a deceleration in k cup sales in the four-week period ending december 20th. the lowest year of growth rate in recent memory. tim? >> this is a company that told you in mid november that this was going to happen. they lowered their 2015 guidance. that was in the stock. stock went from almost 150 down to 135. this is not reason to sell the stock. i think you've got the keurig launch in the fall of 2015. the betty's acquisition, which gives them the opportunity to go into dual platform. i think it's a company that's growing. very interesting time for the company. this is not new news. i would buy any significant weakness here. >> what would you do? they also have the recall just before christmas, and a lot of people said, you know what? the recall is not going to be a big deal. >> i don't think you sell the stock because of this news today. because as tim mentioned, there's a lot more going on with this company than just the k-cups. it's a much more wide range
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bempbl company. in this space, if you gave me the would you rather, i'd rather be in starbucks. >> i know. i would rather starbucks. primarily because you just don't bet against howard schultz. >> next up, apple go-pro may have been the camera gift, but new data from flurry says apple was a smart phone winner this holiday season. flurry says 51% of the devices activated between december 19th and 25th were apple products. >> and the stock finished down on the day. even with that. >> they've got things going on in the uk. ta they've got a deal with chevron. that doesn't mean it goes down hard. hold off on the hate on twitter about apple. i like apple just fine. i just think a lot of people are putting off sales that they could and perhaps should have
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been making here to do them next year, to put off the tax onus. i think that's a mistake to trade based on taxes. so i like taking advantage of that. if somebody oversells something, i'd like to be a buyer. if they overstay their welcome, as i think apple may be an example, at least into the launch of the watch, which i mentioned before, then i think that's a mistake as well. to overstay their welcome. i think they should be taking profits here. >> what do you think, take profits here? >> yeah, we exited apple in the high 100s. but the strength is there. our market intelligence surveys have been showing very increased demand for the iphone 6. it's there, but it's a matter of how much can the stock run, and the taxes. >> he's taken some profits already. what would you do? >> i would take profits, absolutely. apple's challenged in 2015. we already know we have the
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iphone 6, but what else is out there? the reviews on that. said it wasn't so great. at these prices, i'd absolutely be taking profits. >> another holiday winner here, under armour. according to surveys, under armour had strong holiday sales and could benefit from a stronger dollar. >> you think of nike. most people think two interchangeable companies. you look at our market intelligence surveys. satisfaction, net promoter scores, performance of the apparel is on par or better than nike. it's a strong dollar play here. 90% of its refs avenues are in u.s. as the u.s. consumer shows more disposable income, they're going to have more money to spend on these mid tier apparel items. >> the failure of lululemon
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could play to the strength of under armor. >> this also poses a risk for under armour. the stock is sideways the last six months and has a very large valuation premium. i hear them saying the lack of exposure, that makes sense to me. but i see nike's growth opportunity, so much greater. and around armour is now a show-me. >> they have a small international component, but if the international economy does pick up, they'll see some benefit there. not to nike's degree. but they are expanding overseas. coming up, china getting ready to ascend subsidies for clean vehicles. that's giving candy technologies a bump. we hear from a top executive at
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the company next. plus, the nasdaq is inching closer to its record high. back in 2000. find out which stocks are up more than 2,000% since then. we'll break down the surprising winners and losers, straight ahead.
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still ahead on "fast money," a new move in china. in the nasdaq, in striking distance of the all-time high. it hit back in 2000. but only one of these four tech giants is actually up since then. we'll tell you which one and lou to play it. we'll break it down in a very special "options action." shares of candy popping today. let's bring in candy's chief spokesperson. >> thank you for having me. >> part of the expansion of the market in china is about subsidies. there is a central government subsidy. there is a local subsidy. there is a 10% sales tax break, which is going to be in place for the next three years or so.
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what happens if these go away? what happens when these go away? >> well, first of all, it's no way that they're going away. so this subsidy has been in place since two years ago. it's going to be extended to 2000. and with the national and local government in place, as you can see from our recent expansion into other six cities, including shanghai, and our hometown headquarters hangzhou, we've had it delivered to all these cities. we're going to continue to deliver to these cities and to benefit from the government from both national and local subsidy policies. >> how should we look at the competition? in the break, you were stressing that you make the more affordable vehicles. we've got bmw saying that china is going to be the biggest market for them by 2019. dimeler is beginning to be building. volkswagen, they need to have 15
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models on the market. are they local chinese companies, or are they the foreign companies coming into the market? >> that's a really good question. we don't sell the car to individuals so far. so our innovators, cost share programs. just like city bike share. so we want to have our residents to use our car. they don't have to worry about where to charge, and what if the car is going to be broke down in the middle of the road. so this way we provide both short-term leasing and long-term leasing, and together we're the leading operator in the government. we together provide the leading facilities. so they can just go to location a. so in that case, we don't think we'll have any converters yet. >> in terms of leasing, if you're a couple, the central government gives saabttery s t
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the local manufacturer. if a coupnsumer is leasing a vehicle -- >> it's a consumer, but however the dealers, in our cases, the leasing operator receive the subsidy from local governments. so this way, when the dealer received the local government subsidy, so which already reflects the discounted price, which reflects both national and local subsidy. >> so all of the subsidies at that point. >> exactly. >> let's talk about the s.e.c. investigation that's going on. your company exposed in march that it has been on the investigation since november of the prior year. so basically, we're more than a year into the investigation. in march, your ceo said that a protracted investigation could impose substantial costs and distractions regardless of the outcome and could have an impact
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on results. where do we stand with this investigation? is that the protracted amount of time that your ceo was talking about? >> well, this is a fact-finding investigation, so so far, we have beeully incorporated with the s.e.c., with everything they are requesting. so, so far, we are still waiting for hearing from them. so we don't see any impact, since we haven't really heard from them. all we have to do is incorporating by submitting all the information they're requesting, but we don't believe that there was any wrong doing we have done so far, and we believe everything we have done is with the law. >> what is the investigation? what are you being investigated for? >> there is no implication on any specific issue in the investigation itself.
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basically it's like investigation of every facts that they want to look for. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for coming by. tim, you're a shareholder. the s.e.c. investigation is a cloud over the company. it's been out there for a long time and it's a question about some of the company structures that were used, and in some cases, alleged to have inflated as el value asset values. i think in terms of the underlying company, this is the small market cap company. so i talk about this all the time. they're growing their top line. they have just begun to really get into a number of cities. this is a company that needs to show it's profitable. it needs to show that there's actually a real distribution model for these vehicles. but it's a very exciting time to be investing in this kind of technology, in a place that we all know is not only the largest market, it's the largest market by far with a government that's totally incentive sized soci edy
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to make sure this has happened. >> but to emerge in the china market, would you rather -- would you prefer to invest in the manufacturer that sells the vehicles as opposed to leases its vehicles in a car-sharing program? >> well, i think in this case, you want to go with the manufacturer that the government is trying to support. >> you need a partner. >> that's what's important about the chinese market. you have to go. look at alibaba. the reason why they're so successful is because they have government support. so in this case, you have that. and when you talk about the subsidies and potentially whether they will go away, the one thing that china does have is a pollution problem. so i don't think they will go away. i think the government certainly wants companies like this to do well. they have to get that pollution problem under control, because that's actually an economic problem. that could slow down their economy. >> they're targeting five million new energy vehicles by 2020. five million. >> it's massive.
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>> big movers of the day. got a drop for solar city. >> this is a correlation with oil prices. i'm not sure it's fundamentally warranted. we get back to the visionary nature of this company, i think they're there. i think they're there in residential. i think it's a stock i would look at on any more weakness. >> capital property, up 7%. paul? >> yeah, stocks that were hit were hit earlier last month when they said their statements couldn't be relied on. we had an activist investor step in. usually companies say they're going to be restating results. but obviously they must know something here. >> pop xenoport up 5%. >> right here on this program with melissa lee last night. the analyst talked up the stock. stock popped to nearly a 52-week high on heavy volume. he was very bullish on this one. >> gold corps up 5%. >> it wasn't the only gold stock that did well. they all did. gold was up, dollar was down.
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that's how it's working here. i still like gold stocks. i still like gdx. i still like shiny rocks. >> and a not so final countdown. here some young children rejoice. netflix is offering a fake countdown to fool your little ones into thinking it is midnight in time for bed. the streaming holiday hoax stars madagascar's king julian, who now has his own netflix show. the animated three-minute countdown promises music and fun f so you can party without the kids at midnight. >> that is so wrong. >> using cartoon friends and turning them against -- >> all they have to do is look at their iphones and see what time it really is. >> guess what, give them a taste of the party and put them to bed. but how about saying it's time for you to to go to bed. just being honest. let's get some unusual activity. taking a look at homeaway, which
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is down nearly 30% this year. >> timeshare play homeaway. these guys started to get some activity early in the morning. they ended up trading almost 50/1 i think the final numbers. they were basically buying the april 32 calls. they sold the januarys. they rolled out to april. they're betting on the stock moving over the next three or four months, obviously. because that's the april timeframe. they thought the $29.50 stock could make a move. still ahead, the nasdaq is within reach of record highs. what's been driving the gains? we'll tell you the one stock that is up 41,000% from the record close almost 15 years ago. plus, the traders give us trades that slipped through their fingers and the ones they've nailed, after the break.
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the nasdaq is within 5% of the record high it hit during the tech bubble in march. dom with some of the ones that have seen the biggest gains.
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one stock is up more than 40,000%. >> that's right, melissa. first of all, i applaud the robbie williams millennium use there. >> you're the only one that caught that, by the way. >> there you go, guys. >> so let's go back to that millenni millennium. if you're using it measuring the highs of the nasdaq composite index, head and shoulders above the rest in the nasdaq, this company used to be known as hanson's natural. today it's known as monster beverage. a stock that's gone from being 27 cents a share all the way to 111 bucks today. a gain of 41,000%. a thousand dollars invested back then is worth 412,000 invested today. that's the best. other stanouts have also shown significant gains. many of them are stocks in the news that we talk about every day. biopharmaceutical company gilead has been very volatile, especially recently. it's up over 4,200% since the bubble peaks. and then there's apple, up
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2,500%. not all of them have been able to reach the record highs. some have lagged the overall record and the nasdaq. take a look at one of the worst performing large cap stocks. sirius xm holdings. it's still 94% below where it was during the peak levels in march of 2000. some other large cap and megatech stocks, it's just a stone's throw away. they're all going to need some hefty stock gains to get back to their records. intel, 38% below that level. yahoo, 43% below it. and cisco, nearly 60% below its bubble peak back in march of 2000. back to you. >> thank you, dom. we wanted to see which other long-term plays have made big returns for our traders and which stocks do they wish they had bought but missed out on? let's get around the horn, get the hits and the misses, starting with tim. >> a name that i bought in january, a name that i followed
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for years, a name i've owned on and off. i've owned it for two reasons. one is they have the whole india factor. india is one of the few that's doing much better in a low inflation, low oil price environment. there's major structural changes. we know the political change has been very positive. the jaguar land rover brand is one of the most successful global luxury brands. the growth there outstripping bmw. this is part of the story. and you have the local motors name. some of the -- basically the entry level car base in india that is also booming. so this is a name i traded from kind of the low 20s, 24, up to 48 in mid september. got out of most of the position. i still hold a stub because i still want to be in the name. i'd like to buy it lower. fra frankly, the valuation is not that interesting, but it's a name that will continue to chug. >> your miss? >> target. >> this is a name, that with all the missteps of this company, whether it was the security breach, rather it was their failing canadian business, the same source sales that have mixed, this is a company that
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people left for dead. around $55, we covered it on the show. i said hey, this looks very interesting. missed it. 7/5 now. >> you're saying you missed the target? >> so bad. >> your hits. >> lower for longer. tlt. loving this thing. and still believe lower rates for longer. tlt is the way to play that. the stock, or this etf is up i think 23% year-to-date. >> so you're staying in it. >> staying in it. the one i missed, go-pro. missed it badly, because we were in on the ipo. we had a bunch of folks in with us. we said mid 30s, this is a gift, get the heck out. went to high 90s, so i missed all of that. >> you back in? >> no. >> would you get back in? >> i would. but i do have concerns that we talked about already, as far as is it a media company, is it the next youtube? i don't think it is. that's why i haven't bought back. >> your hit, your miss? >> google. people have been criticizing the company's strategy. even the ipo.
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the dutch auction. they came out with android and people are like, what are they doing? android is the number two operating system now. the acquisition, people are saying, what are they doing? these guys, they have a history of doing smart things. not everything pans out, but all you need is a couple home runs. i think google is a name to stick with. >> what's your miss? >> middleby. at the end of 2012, they bought viking range, the high end kitchen appliances. it seemed like a really interesting acquisition to bring viking more mainstream. forgot about the stock. that was when it was at 40. now it's at 100. all along the way, every time i see it, it's up and i'm thinking to myself, how did i miss that? >> hit and miss, bk? >> so by far, this is not just this year, but my single best trade has been short the yen. that has been a fantastic trade. >> i still think there's room.
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that by far has been the best trade. and then the miss, obviously for me is apple. that has just been a monster, monster trade. i had an ill-fated short attempt at one point during this year. did not work out so well. but learn from bk, but i had a stock, so if you're going to short something or have conviction on something, make sure you have a stop in there, because it really didn't hurt my portfolio performance overall. it was just a small little hiccup. coming up, a bounce today and traders are betting there's even bigger winnings ahead. we'll break down that trade next.
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it's been a losing year for most casino stocks, but one name hit the jackpot today, and some traders see even more gains to come. mike co is in austin with the options action. >> so 100 times the average daily call volume. pretty spectacular. >> granted, it normally trades about 237 contracts a day. so that's not normally a big number. but today, 23,000 call contracts. most of that was the february 13 calls. those were being bought for about 65 cents.
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one of the reasons is, as you pointed out, the stock was up 5% today. it's up 45% since the october lows. i think anybody who happens to be in the stock right now who wants to press a bullish bet, you're probably better off by buying these calls. >> are you in the trade at all? >> i am not. >> mike, thanks for that. meantime, we'll be right back. stay tuned.
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the evolution of luxury continues. the next generation 2015 escalade.
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final trade time. >> like google. like that name. like the valuation growth. >> i like the stock. the amount americans looking to leave jobs momentarily is rising, so linked in. >> bk? >> bk likes the twitter. i think this is one you buy tomorrow. i would buy it, and i most likely will buy it first thing tomorrow morning, maybe about 9:31. i think there's just so much value in this company. again, they only have to do one thing right for this thing to skyrocket. so twitter is my final trade.
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>> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for batch iwatch. in the new year, we'll have a new set. you can catch more "fast money" tomorrow at 5:00. meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. in the face of crushing declines, uproarious rallies, and even just plain jane garden variety days in this marke

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