win the masters in 2015. >> that does it for us on the "the closing bell." >> from all of us at cnbc, have a happy and healthy new year. "fast money" starts right now. >> happy new year. >> this is the final "fast money" of 2014 brought to you from new york city's times square. it's been a great year for the bulls. we'll tell you how to keep the party going in 2015. live on new year's eve from the nasdaq, "fast money" starts right now. >> we are almost in the new year here at the nasdaq. do you need an investment strategy? tonight on "fast money" we're getting you ready for the new year. i'm sarah eisen in today for melissa lee. our traders on this new year's eve, tim seymour, jim leven that

will, brian kelly, and david seeberg. the s&p down more than 1% today. it was the index's first final trading day of the year since back in 2001, but it's still up more than 11% for 2014. the dow also under pressure today, but up more than 7% for the year. the nasdaq up more than 13% so far this year, down in december. while the volatility index, something we're watching closely, is up 40%. so will 2015 be anything like 2014, tim? one thing it sounds like everyone can agree on is the wild swings and the volatility. >> volatility is in play. i think the other thing people will agree is some of the trades that were the most popular predictions for 2014 are ones that probably didn't come true and they could come true in 2015. so i look at rates, for example. we're going to talk about predictions, but if you thought rates were going down as much as they did in 2014, you would have

said probably markets were going down and kudos to guy adami, he nailed this trade, but at the same time markets went up. lower rates meant more central bank intervention. as we set up for 2015, a lot of the people that thought rates were going lower in 2014 probably think they're going higher in 2015. >> it was also a u.s. trade, right, b.k.? u.s. stocks, u.s. bonds -- >> and it's all about the international capital flows. what we saw in '14 was the fed winding down their quantitative easing, japan ramp it up and potentially in '15 the ecb ramping up. all the money is flowing into the u.s. if you look at u.s. stocks they've outperformed. tlt has outperformed. i think going into the new year that's going to continue. as long as there is a central bank out there with the power to put money into the economy, that money will then flow into the u.s. >> do you think the ecb can be that central bank? >> no. >> but japan can do it. >> i think it's japan. i think the huge risk the ecb

stumbles this year, draghi is probably one of the greatest central bankers we've ever seen. he's been able to get rates to record lows. >> one of the greatest talkers. >> dave, today's action, do you read into that? is that a harbinger of what's to come? >> not at all. very light volume. people are just being really low key, relaxed into the end of the year. they made their bets and took them off -- >> hit the sell button and -- >> the whole world took off. brian made a good point about the ecb. i think the ecb is going to stumble and that could be a really interesting trade. consensus is long europe going into the year because people think there's going to be some sort of bounce with the stimulus. >> do you think it's a consensus trade? >> i think it's consensus. >> it's come back on valuation. i differ with david on this. i think you have had such -- you have a reversion to the mean that comes back. you have europe underperform by 22% in dollar terms and i think the expectations for the ecb are

low and i think also their currency now -- we closed 2014 at the lows on the euro, eu euro/dollar. oil is a huge stimulus. i think second half europe grows 2%. >> do you agree with the guys at the able that it's still going to be driven by central bank policy? >> i think that's a part of the equation, and tim had mentioned federal reserve rate hikes or at least interest rates going up. in general we think the fed will raise rates in the summer. that's a headwind. on the positive side you have u.s. economic growth that's quite robust. there's no comparing it to the past two years. it really is good growth, and you've got earnings there as well. we can see the s&p 500 up in the high single digits. the fed is a headwind as is russia, quite frankly. there's a lot of potential outcomes from russia. not a lot of them are good. so that's what we've really got our eyes on. >> we want to get each of your big predictions.

think of one good one for 2015. brian kelly, let's start with you. >> last year i sat here and said you need to get rates and oil correct to make money this year. i thought rates would be going higher and oil would be going higher. thankfully i reversed my position in the middle of the year and was able to make money. you need to be flexible. going into 2015 my big prediction, ten-year note goes below 1%. >> really? that is not consensus. >> that's b.k. being b.k. that's how i do it. >> why? we're set to have higher interest rates. >> one, we're set to have higher interest rates because you think the fed is doing to raise rates. i don't think the fed is going to raise rates, but more importantly it's about the international capital flows. ific buy a ten-year bond at 2% versus buying a spanish bond at 1%, why wouldn't i buy a ten-year bond? it's just a relative value trade. >> great point, but if inflation, which doesn't exist now, comes out of nowhere because i think the fed is years

behind relative to where the u.s. job market is right now and where it's going to 2015. >> we're so far away from inflation the natural state -- >> we're starting to see a little bit of it on wages. >> not really. >> i don't think it's inflation, although that's traditionally what causes the fed to raise rates. i think really what the fed has to look at right here is they have no ammo in their quiver in case a recession ever does hit. now, we're not calling for one anytime soon, but if one were to hit, all they have is squee quantitative easing and they're clearly uncomfortable going back to that. the reason to raise rates is to give them some cushion. if they believe that, which i obviously do, then you do see the ten-year going higher. not calamitously higher but -- >> how high? >> ending the year at 2.75% with a potential rise during the summer above 3% as the fed starts its rate hike. >> completely opposite. >> there you have it. >> you got to take one of two sides. >> certainly you could see the

short end of the curve increase, but i think if you have that scenario -- and i agree with you, the fed needs to normalize monetary policy. they need to make sure they have something to go to because we will go into another recession at some point in time. the question then is does the yield curve become inverted? do you get two-year rates higher than ten-years? i think that happens. >> that's a disastrous scenario. >> we could go on all night about the ten-year night. give us a big prediction that's not the ten-year yield. >> look, my prediction would be on the higher end retail names. i love the tiffanys of the world. i think the channel checks we've done have shown that christmas season was phenomenal for them, and i think 125 bucks for tiffany is not an issue. i also look at target stores. i think target is going to be a turnaround play. i think target to be a big opportunity. >> they have already turned around. >> we have nike, lululemon. >> i think really if you look at high end retail, i think high end retail is a great place to make your bets. going into '15 i think you will

see a breakout for this space. >> they've gotten a little momentum. >> no doubt they have gotten momentum. >> tim seymour, what's your big call? >> i think commodities, many of the major xhom i hcommodities a know there's too much iron ore. copper i think we're getting more supply/demand balance. all you need to do is see commodities. i will not say it's the end of the first quarter but it's between the second and third quarters, you get a bottoming. i think you have to look at the stocks in 2015. >> speaking of commodities, crude closing out the day as its done for much of the second half of 2014 at multiyear lows. today's move driven in part by news that saudi arabia's king abdullah was taken to the hospital for medical checks. so will the oil slide continue into 2015? let's go off the charts with the one and only special guest on this new year's eve, louise

yamata. good to see you. >> thank you. >> what do you see in wti, the charts? >> i'd like to give a little bit of history here because you had a trading range that lasted about four years, and within it -- oh-oh, within it we had an up trend over the past three years, and they're bringing me back the chart. and in -- here we go. there's the up trend. and right about here was when we got a relative strength breakdown in energy. it was a six-year break which meant to us it was much more structural than it was cyclical, and then this broke that and came down to 80, which was one of our targets. now 80 has been broken, and you're going through 60. it's conceivable that we had a lot of year-end tax loss selling that gave us the last downdraft. maybe we get a kickback rally as we open 2015, but i think that

the possibility of coming back and even moving lower is very real. >> wow. all right. thank you very much. so short term maybe a bounce for 2015 on oil, longer term going lower. louise is going to join us later and look at another chart of 2014, but first let's trade oil. are any of you gentleman long oil? >> no. i did cut my shorts in xlp. i'm more on tim's side. at some point you get a stabilization in oil and some of the commodities. you have seen some of the production here in the u.s. being curtailed, drilling down, rig counts down, but those can be turned on real fast. so even if you get a spike up in oil, even if you get up to 75 or so, which would be a big move from here, those rigs will be turned right back on and i think it's probably capped at that point. >> look, i like the e and p names. here is my prediction. i think bottom in oil -- i'm not calling a bottom in oil.

we could pull back a little more. and i think consensus is 46 bucks an oil. it could touch $40. i'm not going to call a bottom but i will say we're 85% of the way through this sell-off and i think the e and p stocks in stebls. >> like what? >> i like the apcs of the world, the eogs of the world. i think you should be buying them and buy them from the perspective of this, a, most of the downside risk is in the sides and, two, if there's any geopolitical risk, it's going to rise. it's going to take off. >> i'm going to preach a little more caution to that. that's a good speculative trade and i don't say that in a negative way. we should all be speculators -- >> set the tone for the new year. everybody needs a preacher. >> here is a safer way to play it, the refiners or some of the larger integrated oils, chevrons, even the bps of the world which is a bit of a tarnished name, they have dividends that are relatively safe. the refiners, they have been beaten down far more than they should have when their biggest

raw material cost has gone down by 50%. they've started to come back. they have more room to rally. that for me is a safer way to play what could be catching a falling knife. >> i think so. although refining capacity could gap down lower in the first quarter, utilization is coming down. i think they are the safest place to play. i have said -- i think you trade these around. if you look at exxon, i have said in for the last week, i don't think you need to own exxon tomorrow. i think what david said is a lot of e and p names, the best balance sheets, we've already priced in significant production pull back and these are guy that is can adjust. somewhere on the medium term marginal cost again. in oil we are there. we're on the immediate yam term price. >> so many people have been waiting -- >> it's the end of the first quarter in my view. >> most of these clients have derisked entirely. this is an underweight sector. when it turns, it will turn in a fierce way. you have to be long them now. no question about it. >> it is a big theme and a big story. worst year since back in 2008 for oil. apple stock up nearly 40% for the year, but we've got someone

who says a pullback could be coming early next year. find out why after the break. and amazon getting whacked this year while tesla and biotech surged, but will the tides turn in 2015. we'll break all that down with what so be some of the biggest reversals. we're playing some of our team's favorite songs. this is the babe of our executive producer, lisa.

welcome back to "fast money." this song, of course, is "all about the bass." they're looking at me like it was my song of the year. brian kelly. >> come on, you got to love this song. >> that's yours? >> absolutely. it's so addictive.

>> shocking. >> b.k.! >> whoa, buddy. >> you only live once. >> apple, we're going to talk apple. having a strong run in 2014 but we have someone who says it may not carry over into the new year. collin gilles of bgc financial has a hold rating on apple. braved the crowds to join us in times square. >> happy new year. >> happy new year. collin, you have had a hold on this stock since the summer. >> i know. it's had a tremendous run, right. there's ample reasons why you want to own this name, but we would caution, go back and look at the last two januarys when they report record december quarter results, the stock has traded down, traded down 8% in january of this year. traded down 12% january in the prior year. the reason is that there's expectations already baked in. in fact, you go back and you look at how the stock has traded since they reported october 20th, their september quarter, it's underperformed the s&p index. >> so the next quarter, when

they report in the middle of january, will be the first full quarter of the iphone 6 and the 6 plus. it will be it's holiday and what we hear is that this product cycle upgrade has more sustainability. it's doing better for longer. >> they're going to sell somewhere between 65 million to 70 million phones. they're going to mint literally millions of dollars of operating profit, but the concern here is that at the end of the day they're still a widget seller. they don't have enough of the recurring revenue streams. if you get any lengthening of the phone cycle, this is going to negatively impact apple plus just the sheer weight this company has in the indices means any market pickup will flow through to apple, around the final point is it's been carrying the tailwinds of this massive stock repurchase program. when you issue debt to buy back stock, at some point that will come to an end. they bought back $56 billion of stock in their last fiscal year. the number two company was one-third that amount. it was ibm. >> but they could do more,

collin. and the way i look at it is these guys have been fighting off everyone who says they need to get down into the lower price phones and lower -- they're not the only game in town. the way i see it why can't the margins and that cash flow continue? i think they should be dishing off cash flow for the next five years. >> easily, right? but the concern is that the smartphone market is going to become the phone market. we've had this great rotation as people went from feature phones to smartphones. you've seen unit sales of 40%. the actual phone market grows between 5% and 10%. there's a maturation that will happen and apple is so dependent on the iphone itself that it's that dependency that investors need to be concerned about. >> don't you think apple pay will help facilitate device sales? with all the security issues we see, apple pay is an interesting part of this whole equation. i think it facilitates device sales and i think it pushes it for a period of time. >> so it's a great facilitators

for sales of the unit itself to help sell hand sets. to be a meaningful contributor to revenue, they would need to do about $14 trillion in sales just to be 10% of revenue. that's not going to happen. >> just in terms of the ecosystem, right? >> with the ecosystem, i think with device sales they're getting massive margins, but people are going to convert over. they trust apple. they understand the whole nfc chip and how that's working. i think that people trust them. >> but what happens when the upgrade cycle for a phone lengthens from two years to three or four years? >> there's going to be other things that come through. ipad, i know it's dissolving but -- >> the watch is coming next year. >> does the steve jobs' legacy get too much in this stock? >> you know, so let's see how the watch lands. already i've got 30 million units built in for the next four quarters. that's materially more than the first year launch of the ipad,

around 19 million units. so expectations are quite high. again, i just point out even though it's going to be a record quarter, margins should be up and they have to increase channel inventory, the stock has traded down the last two januarys. it's always worth being careful with this name close to record highs. i predict that google will outperform apple in 2015. >> opposite of 2014. >> correct. >> what's your price target on apple? >> $103. so we're looking for a pull back of 10%. >> collin, thanks for sharing and throwing it around and arguing with some of the traders. let's trade it. who is long aple? >> i'm long apple and i have been long since about 90 bucks. i think the risk/reward is fine until the march quarter where that really becomes the show-me quarter. collin references maybe they stuffed the channels a bit. the numbers will be just fine. the multiple at 15 times if you think they're earning 8, 8.25 in 2015 a fair multiple for a market that's looking for reasonable value with safe

companies. apple still is that. >> jim? >> if we just talk about the balance sheet, i don't mean to be pointing at you collin, but the debt issuance is, at least in my opinion, a way of getting around the fact they have cash overseas they can't repatriate. in order to get cash in the states they can use to buy back their shares, they've issued debt. that debt at 1.5% to 2% really is almost cost-free once the fed starts to raise rates and they have got an almost equivalent rate on the cash that they're holding. so they still generate a ton of cash. they've got a net cash position. i'm not worried about their debt. >> a lot of investors looking to see what they will do. we have to leave the apple conversation there. we have a news flash right now from dom chu. >> the reason why we're doing this right now, we've talked a lot about the oil field accommodations company that makes the dorm-style accommodations for oil field workers. well, its single biggest shareholder has now disclosed in a regulatory filing it sold its

entire stake in civeo as of december 30th. this company had an 11.5% stake in the company as of mid-october. so the biggest shareholder in civeo which makes oil field ak daxs for people to live in while they're working in fields has seen its largest partner ja jen partners, sell its stake. >> we don't know if david einhorn still own it is from green light. according to the last filing, he was in that name, too. >> david einhorn's green light capital also was a holder of this stock as of the last reporting period from the s.e.c. filings. we'll see if they are still in the stock or not. no disclosure yet but jenna partners filed this with the s.e.c. saying they have sold their entire stake. >> dom chu, thanks for that flash. b.k., i was thinking these activists have been a little quiet around this massive price decline. >> right. i think now i wouldn't be surprised to see this thing pop on friday when it opens up. you have this big overhang over

it, whether there's a couple other people getting out, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see it pop. i think taking civeo, they're a smaller stock but they make the man camps and they're exposed to western canada. when i look around and try to extrapolate that, i look at canadian pacific, canadian national. these guys have really benefited from building these machine camps, from transporting the oil. i'd be very careful of those names going into 2015. >> yeah. the ripple effect from those lower oil prices. three big moves in 2014, amazon, tesla, and biotech. but will we see them heading in the opposite direction next year? we have some opinions. we'll break down the trades after the break. and by the way, this is "fancy" by iggy azalea. one of our producer's favorite songs of the year. ♪

the all new, head turning cadillac ats coupe. it's irresistible. ♪

that's jim's song. >> not me. >> you knew taylor swift would be on one of our top songs of -- >> i love taylor swift. >> welcome back to "fast money." it's not tim seymour's favorite songs, it's mike newberg's favorite song. >> surprising for mike, but, yeah, whatever. good for you, mike. >> it's time now for a special edition of top trades. the reversal edition, looking at some of the names that made big moves in 2014 but could be

headed in the opposite direction. rough year for amazon, down more than 20% in 2014. is it poised for a comeback, b.k.? >> i don't think so. the 2014 was the year that the street fell out of love with amazon. they used to get a pass because their revenue was growing. don't worry about not making money but every single quarter this year when they came out and didn't make money, the stock went lower. i think this is a broken story. until they decide that they're going to change how they run the company, which i don't think they're going to do in 2015, i think this company could break below 280. >> given all these astounding numbers about how they're growing prim which is the way that jeff bezos is growing market share. >> it looks cheap but with no earnings, throw it out the window. this company has bigger issues and i absolutely agree with you. >> i will say this, their commitment and their investment in infrastructure and fulfillment, they are so far ahead of everybody.

this company is in the cat bird's seat or at least the driver's seat. the move to mobile was very big for these guys. i think the bar is very low. it's a range bound stock. it's not going down in 2015 like it did in '14. >> next up is tesla. the stock finishing out the year up 50%. elon musk teasing on twitter again what's to come next year. writing, by the way, we're working on a charger that automatic moves out from the wall and connects like a solid metal snake for reals. >> for reals? >> up for another year of gains or is the party over? >> street language there. >> this was something we thought was going away and we thought it was indicative of maybe even the mojo around the stock. maybe is this one way to get it back going. a stock that touched $286 on september 4th, got down to $195 during the lows. i think it's a stock that probably goes to $180. i'm not saying that's a place to buy it, but i think it goes

there. if you look at this company, things that bother me. competition. the bmwi-3. china has more problem than they're letting on. the head of the china office resigned. you have a company that also is not spending the way they used to but the cap ex and the cash flow issues are a very big deal. therefore, there's no way this company's best days are in front of it from a stock's perspective. the company is phenomenal. thee v te esv technology is som the entire place wants to go. elon musk and jeff bezos are cut from the same cloth. they're about building great companies. i wouldn't be surprised if tesla were to merge with a spaceex operation or much like amazon, get into a wealth of other projects which has made for a great business but, frankly a lousy stock. i would be away from it, too. >> let's not forget another hot sector, biotech. this trade, this sector really took off this year finishing up

about 44% but will investors have the same kind of appetite for risk, david, in 2015 when it comes to biotech? >> i think biotech is very interesting. i think biotech will end up outperforming the s&p but i think there will be some periods that are dislocated. i think the pricing on the drugs is going to become mainstream. a conversation that's going to scare some of the investors that have bought this name. most of the investors, generalists in this stock, when pricing issues come up, which is one of the reasons this group has done so well, it could be a tailspin that could knock the group for a little bit of a loop here. look, i do think that the first two months of the year are going to be up. i think historically they do very well, but i think that going in, you know, to the second half of the year we could see more pricing questions come up and i think you could see the group suffer. at that point you buy it. >> b.k.? >> i would be buying biotech on weakness. the one thing i say -- to get some of the volatility out and, you know, to settle your stomach

a bit, try the biotech etfs, ibb. you're not going to get the big bang if somebody comes out with a blockbuster drug but you're also not going to lose 50% overnight. they're almost like really expensive options. that's how i would play it. >> all right. still ahead, does 2015 mean the end for twitter's ceo? we'll talk to a top analyst now about his predictions for the company and for its management in theyear. as we head out to break check out the ceo thaz didns that didt through 2014. ouch. >> bye-bye. location. location. (shouting) location. here's the location that matters the most. here. or here. or here. it's wherever this is. to get customers to come here and stay here, you're going to need an app that connects to all your systems.

so they can bank, shop, do what they need to do, and you gotta do it fast. before the competition does. it's tough out here; you better be on the right cloud. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm.

stimll ahead on this "fast money," betting on twitter in 2015. the stock has taken a beating this year, but we've got someone who says a change at the top could bring a change in the stock. and china's market is up more than 50% this year. will it continue? we've got an epic street fight

here on the desk coming up on that topic. louise is back with what i have been calling the chart of the year. find out what it is coming up. we'll start with twitter, down more than 40% this year, and just last week one analyst said that there was one thing that could turn the stock around. have a listen. >> does costolo, dick costolo, the ceo, does he make it out of twuve 2015? >> it's the number one question i get. should he step down this year? there's a couple interesting candidates there, the former ceo of yahoo! could take his place. >> do you think dick costolo will leave that job? >> we think there's a good chance that he's not there within a year. >> so is twitter a buy in 2015? joining us on the fast line is

rob peck. bob, happy new year. >> thanks for having me. >> what has been the reception from institutional investors and others since you made that call which helped the stock more than 3%? >> so the call was predicated -- it was more of a recounting of conversations we had with investors after just going across the country and visiting a ton of investors for the last two weeks and there was a lot of concern if he was the right person. if he isn't, the question is who do you think would be a good person to replace him. that's why i mentioned neil mohan or ross livensevinsohlevi. >> so it's been pretty quiet obviously. these calls have been heating up heading into the end of the year. what's going to be the catalyst for this move? is it just going to happen because so many investors are talking about it and speculating about it and the performance in 2014 has been pretty awful? >> i think it comes down to the operating issues actually. it's going to be around product,

the new products they introduce as far as on boarding people to the twitter platform, verticalization of their content, whether the streams are entertainment or finance or what have you and seeing that growth in monthly active users. if they can start to grow that, it could be there by the end of the year, but the data we can see so far indicates that those numbers aren't turning around yet. >> and why do you have such confidence that it is a management issue, that when he goes and someone like a ross levinsohn from yahoo!, ex-ceo of yahoo!, comes in, that will be turned around? what is it specifically about him that tells you this is a ceo issue? >> yeah. first of all, given ross' experience and connections, there's a handful of people on the planet that have the connections ross has across all the top 100 cmos and his top business contact being the ceo of yahoo! and guggenheim digital media. the key to driving maus will be around the business development

deals, have nodules or modes. one is the espn app which has a twitter module in it. if you see more of those proliferate, you can see an inflection point in the maus and have your facebook moment in 2q this year. >> thank you very much, bob, for joining us and elaborating on that call. bob peck is the analyst at suntrust. help new year to you. are you confident this is a management issue? >> i'm on absolute sell of the stock. i think it's going to go lower and i have been saying that for some time. look, they have no user growth. they have got no user scale, period. and users are fickle. they're not going to come back to this platform. i'm not a buyer. i'm a seller. >> we've got a buyer, right? >> i'm a buyer. i didn't wait until 2015. it was my final trade last night and i bought a call spread today because i think -- i do think it's a management problem. there is so much that twitter can do. all they have to do is one thing right, and if they get the right management team in there and

they can make it more user friendly, this is a unique product. they virtually have a monopoly on what they do. to me all they have to do is just get somebody in there and the stock pops. i bought a march call spread today. >> brian bought it at an interesting level. 35, 33 and 35, this stock is bottom here. this is absolutely where the charts tell you it's put in a bottom. i gra agree with david, there's way they're a $300 billion company. the facebook moment, the bar is very low. >> any worries about big insiders sales? >> there have been but the stock has acted fairly well. >> seems more than estate planning, if you will. >> i think the hardest thing to get back is your users. the users leaves, they don't come back. >> that's always been the big issue is user growth and keeping users. it is time now for a special edition of "pops and drops," the biggest movers of the year, not just the day. big mover is intel. the biggest mover, in fact, up

40% this year. >> this is a beneficiary from several different trends that happened during 2014. one you have the good dividend on this. you had yields going lower, people wanted to get in the dividend playing stocks. semiconductors also very strong in 2014. obviously intel was a big beneficiary of that. finally just big cap tech being cheap. everybody wanted to be into it. intel a poster child for that. i'm not sure that continues at the strength and the pace that it did in twuve2015, but that dt mean intel is going to collapse. if you own it, i think you hold onto it. >> on the flip side, worst performer, ibm, a drop of 14% this year, jim. >> not a good year for ibm. second year in a row they've had a bad year. i don't think the third year will come. i think they're going to have a very good 2015. why? because they divested a lot of crummy businesses. they have struck partnerships with apple and intel. and finally and this sounds a little pie in the sky --

>> not you. >> once in a while i break out of the shell there, tim. i think the artificial intelligence business, i think there's a lot of applications for it, particularly in the medical field where doctors face too much information and don't have the ability to process it all. i like ibm in 2015. >> all right. a pop for american airlines. i saw this today and was shocked. up 112% this year, david. >> i'm still a buyer here. even from october's move from 30 bucks to where it is right now, i still think there's a lot of legs to the story. they've been a massive beneficiary from lower oil. they don't hedge. that beneficiary if you priced oil where it was in october to where it is now, it's a $3 billion, you know, addition to earnings. i think it's a massive gain for them. i look at it saying american airlines gets a really good projectory here. i can see the stock going higher in 2015. >> drop for wynn resorts, down 23% this year. you buy it, tim? >> chinese government cracking down on macao.

it looks cheap, it's not, stay away. >> very brief. the u.s. dollar index gaining another half percent today closing out its best year since 2005. do the technicals show more dollar strength in the new year. let's bring back louise with the charts at the smart boards. this is my number one chart for 2014 and it's not just the dollar, it's the broad trade weighted dollar index. covers the dollar against most anything. >> that's correct. it's not only the six major trading partners but the broad trade weighted. it includes all the smaller trading partners and we particularly like it. it showed the huge breakdown in the dollar that took place and the bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair, just like the oil chart we saw earlier, and here you have had almost a decade of repair, and the price broke out through this 16-year bear market down trend even before the dxy, the spot dollar, broke out given us a sense that we had something that was much

more structural than cyclical for the dollar, and we think it's initiated a new structural bull market and is very impressive. >> louise on the technicals of the dollar. let's trade it. b.k., i know you're bullish also. >> yes, absolutely. i'm also bullish on that chart. that is full currency nerd territory. i feel very comfortable. >> as usual. >> i agree with you. >> well done. actually, this is great to look at this one because we know the dxy is dominated by the euro. this gives you a better story. i think certainly second half of 2015 you could see a very, very strong dollar. >> and it affects everything. trade to economies to corporations -- >> 12% move is a massive move. to say it's going to do the same thing, especially when we know what central bank differentials are, i think the dollar is going higher, i don't think it's going 12% higher. >> you're right, it is a big move for a currency. we will see. up next, china ending the year as the best performing equity market of 2014.

will the gains continue in the new year? brian kelly and tim seymour battling it out. an epic street fight is coming your way on what is next for china in 2015 after the break. we've got more "fast money" coming up, and this is tim seymour's top pick for 2014. something from nothing from the foo fighters. >> probably the best rock and roll band out there today. >> are they still around? >> so you.

china ended the year as the top performing global equity market and ending with gains of 52%. what should you expect in the new year? we have a street fight brewing for you. tim is the bull, brian is our bear, and you can vote for the winner of this fight on twitter. tweet @cnbcfastmoney. use #bull for tim or #bear for bk. let's start it out with the bull case. >> we all know china's economy is the slowest it's been in 25 years. that's nothing new. the question is what does it mean? liquidity for china is how you play the market. central bank has dumped $250 billion into the market. they've had a number of

stimulus. the names you wament to look at in china that were not necessarily the ones that are all about the macro. it's about consumption. david talked a little bit about some of the multinationals. they will do very well because of china. you want to say in those trades. also some of the china internet names. i think you stay in those names. china is going higher. it's a cheap market, too. it's not expensive. >> here is the thing that worries me about china. they are trying to manage, they're trying to pop a credit bubble, and if they're successful, they will be the first central bank in the history of the world to be able to do this without a disaster. so to me there's a huge risk that you have a credit crisis in china in 2015. i think the way you play it though is outside of china. we've talked about copper. those what concerns me. the economy is transitioning. they're no longer going to be the growth engine that they were. they put -- you mentioned it, tim, over $200 billion into their economy. most of that into the banks. i mean, this is stuff that

nobody even talks about. >> policy. >> policy, but the banks are bankrupt. they're bankrupt. >> we all know that china story. >> i got seven more seconds. we put $700 billion into the banks in the u.s. during the biggest crisis in the withhold world. in three months china has done about a third of it. >> we have been saying credit crisis in china for the last five years. >> times up. break it up. >> it's happening. that's why they need the money. ja let's quickly get the rest of the desk to weigh in. jim, who are you agreeing with here? >> look, i came in with a bias. i'm a little more in b.k.'s camp -- >> and i convinced you, didn't i? >> the but is there are chinese stocks who may do well but the chinese economy has the property overhang that's at the root of the credit bubble. >> that's why the stock market is doing very well. >> yn when it bursts but i'm worried it's sooner rather than later. >> what about you, david? >> i agree with tim 100%. that issue with the property overhang i think is going to benefit the stock market.

that's exactly why it's doing well. >> how is it going to benefit? >> the money is going -- >> money into the stocks. >> versus real estate. >> it looks like we have a winner. twitter says it's tim seymour. congratulations. >> this is the first time i think in 2014 i have beaten brian so it feels pretty good. a nice way to end the year. jo congratulations, tim. . >> bull case on china weighs out. still ahead, one trader making a bullish bet on coca-cola in 2015. how high does he think that stock will go. we'll take up that trade next. and as we head to break, we'll just hear the "fast money" music. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the evolution of luxury continues. the next generation

2015 escalade.

you're hearing "she's so perfect" by five seconds of summer which is jim's favorite song of the year. that's a little surprising. >> i have a teenage girl and i have a beloved 13-year-old daughter has to listen to that song. >> you all have a little teenage girl inside of you. >> wow. >> shares of coca-cola -- >> i hope it doesn't get out. >> co-ca-cola lagging the dow this year but some traders

making a big bet 2015 will look brighter. mike khouw is in austin with some "options action" for us. >> coca-cola tripled yesterday's call activity and the most active were the january of 2016 calls. this is the second day they have been buying them. that would represent a 20% increase in share price. john and pete highlighted a lot of put selling in this name late last week. a lot of bullish activity going on right now. jo they're making some moves, cutting costs to turn it around. happy new year, mike. >> happy new year. >> your first move for 2015 when we return. plus, i'll reveal my favorite song of 2014 right after this break. more "fast money" coming right up.

and there it is, my favorite song of 2014. a quick final trade. dave? >> target stores, turn around story. i love it. i think it will outperform. >> bk? >> merry new year to everybody. buy vix calls.

>> happy new year. >> long big blue, ib m. >> here is to this. live from times square. mummy starts now. happy new year, everybody! ♪ ♪ ♪ my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends and i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain you, but educate you so call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i've gotten older. you probably can't tell that because we have excellent makeup people who daily make me