>> vr a good weekend. >> that does it for us here on the "closing bell." thanks for joining us today. busy and volatile day to kick off 2015. >> see you later, kayla. have a good weekend. "fast money" starts right now. mandy drury starting us off here. >> yes, "fast money" starts right now. we are live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york's times square. i'm mandy drury sitting in for melissa lee. this is our first "fast money" of 2015 and coming up, our traders are going to give you their new year's investing resolutions. but we're going to start with the moves today. stocks losing team after rallying right out of the gate. they say as january goes, so goes the year. i know this is only one day, it is only the first day of the trading year, but should we be bracing for a little more volatility here in 2015? january so far -- i know you're

armed with some fantastic stats since 1987, january is the best month -- >> it is one of the best performing months of the year. i think volatility will come with changing interest rate or central bank expectations. i do think that the january effect is something that you can play. i think it is something that's not necessarily you're playing all year but there were a number of underperforming stocks. i think there was a lot of performance chasing in the last six weeks of the year. underperformers are names that i think could outperform in the short run. i don't think your strategy for the year is to play those games. >> let me push back for two seconds. you say we can play the january effect but the santa claus rally has not worked at all. so far the osama bin laden has been down this so-kaulsanta cla rally, period. >> there were a handful of

blow-ups that we haven't even heard about that i think you will hear about. i think there was some oversold conditions around them. even a 3-d systems or twitter or sprint are names that i think people are looking at. >> you believe in the jan effect. i don't believe in it too much but if you have a chance to pull up that one-day chart, that's probably what we're in store for this year, volatility. we started out the day in positive, spent most of the day in negative, then ended out flat. i think we'll spend plenty of time above and below this starting value. >> i agree. volatility will reign. no question. look at the splaul cap run we saw in the end of the fourth quarter. there was two months of massive outperformance. they were down roughly the%. it was a massive gap between small caps and large gaps. today sort of a one-day -- you

can't make a decision, volume is terrible but i would say in general, i would look for small caps to outperform. i still see a lot of strength there. i still think energy, you should be buying stocks. i see a lot of volatility. i definitely do. >> i'll bring some data into the discussion about the jan effect. i tend not to believe in a lot of these market aphorisms. if you look at january over the last 90 years, small caps trounce the large caps. you got almost 4% after small caps of the last almost isn'try versus 1.25% for the large caps. after a year in which the s&p puts on a double-digit gain for the year, the following january is even better and it is about 68% of the time that stocks are higher. i think that can be attributed to human behavior. i don't think it is a total

coincidence. i think people that missed the rally last year are worried about their jobs and i think they tend to take a little more risk. that would favor the russell. i like the comments about that underperformance last year. russell basically marked time, closed above 1200 which was a huge technical resistance level. it's retesting as we speak. had some weakness today but i like that idea going into this the beginning of this year. >> look at the gold man v.i.p. list. that's an example of seeing whether or not there is hedge fund participation. today there was zero participation in the hedge fund marketplace. everyone's on vacation. >> a new report says yahoo! is looking to get into the cable market and considering buying scripps network interactive. i want to have a little beef are you about this. you've got a buy rating on

yahoo! but it closed today at $50.17 above your price tag. what gives? >> well, that would be under review. it's had a huge run here. we upgraded it back at $30 a few months ago. this is all stuff that's in motion so i'll just put that under the review category. >> gene, it's tim. for people that like stock, catalysts are clearly about tax savings, about the alibaba stake, with what they'll do potentially with that money. people hop don't like it think they are a bad transaction away. there's been a lot of news about their interest in getting into the media this week. what's your driver here, your biggest risk? >> if you look at the mask cap right now, it is $47 billion. about $6 billion of that is related to yahoo!'s core. that's been the big focus for investors, how they're going to fix their core. the importance of yahoo! going after scripps, this is a big clang in terms of how yahoo! thinks of their future.

in the past they always talked about being a technology focused company. the fact that they would entertain this, and this being about a $12 million acquisition, would suggest they're interested in exploring, becoming a media company. i think that's ultimately a better strategy for yahoo!'s core business to be more of a conglomerate media company, because they've lost in technology. i think it is a big tell in terms of how yahoo! thinks about their core future. >> isn't it true though that marissa mayer has been talking out of both sides of her mouth on this issue, tech versus media, since the beginning? how do you say you are a technology company, then write katie couric a check? how do you say you are a technology company, then double down on home grown content when really technology companies are more about distribution? i think this is kind of a tight rope that they've been walking for two years now. i guess my question to you on that is, if they doo in fact do

a deal like this, don't they have an open revolt from shareholders? i mean isn't that when all the tremors become a full-blown earthquake? >> i think my take from talking to investors is they want them to do something with their core business. i think that they feel that they've lost the technology game. i completely agree, they've been kind of walking both sides of that equation w, but i don't thk there would be a revolt. ultimately if they can build a business that can actually grow -- and the core business has not been growing -- i think investors would be okay with that. >> what's the value of their core business right now? seems that it is pricing into negative value for the core. >> it is not quite negative. it is probably around $6 billion is the core value. that would put alibaba and yahoo! in cash around $41 billion. there is some value from it but expectations are really low.

that's why they can do something like more traditional media and investors may give them a pass, is because as you said, there's very low expectations about the core. >> stick around, gene. we'll talk about apple in just a second. first let's trade yahoo!. yahoo! is thinking more about being a media company as opposed to a tech company. do you think that's the right strategy? >> first off, i think the model is out there. comcast has done this, of taking distribution and marrying it with content. yahoo! is not the same company but if they didn't have that $9 billion of cash on the balance sheet, i would look at yahoo! more as a takeover candidate tlab ha than an acquirer. >> i like the stock around $50. i think the alibaba tax savings plan and any scheme they come up with will be highly creative and that will move the stock. i could own the stock here.

>> i agree. i think this will largely turn on how they treat to stake. thing about the core is even if you turn it around, it is just not a good business. it's banner ads. i have a blog. believe me. cpm is $4. nobody wants to really be in that business. that's why everyone is saying, i'm a technology company. i'm distribution -- at the end of the day if you're in the page view game, it is a deflationary game. it is not fun. >> so you have a buy on yahoo!. also a buy on apple. what makes you so bullish? >> we're optimistic. we think the length and cycle for the iphone is going to be better than investors think. separately, we think there is going to be some excitement building around the watch even though the actual result of the watch may not be that great. we think investors will get baltimore optimistic. that will be positive for the

multiple. in past upgrade cycles we tracked the amount of how tight the supply is. this year it is particularly tight. typically at this point they would be full inventory of iphones and we're not close to full inventory right now which means there is going to be demand that's going to be pushed into the march quarter and i think investors are underestimating what that could mean for march guidance. >> let me push back for two seconds on the watch. i've read headlines that said it could be, relatively speaking, a bit of a flop. >> i think that our surveying has shown that the interest level is relatively low. it is about 10% of iphone owners in the u.s. said they would buy. that's been pretty consistent over the last couple years. even before the watch came out we've been surveying people. the point that i had was that i think investors just because the way they approach apple, i think that they will get more optimistic about it, even though the results might not come through with the watch. i think there is just going to be this natural optimism that's going to be a slight positive for the multiple come spring.

>> i totally agree. no one's really got anything baked in for the watch. it is just an up side opportunity, in my opinion. i think there's been a lot of pent-up demand. samsung would say their watch didn't sell, but people love apple. they love the products. they're waiting for apple. i think it is going to be a lot better than people anticipate which will help drive their numbers a little bit higher. >> we've got to leave it there. enjoy your weekend. let's trade apple. >> sim's long apple. i like apple. i think there is going to be some profit taking early in the year. i'm long apple for long term but the last month it really has underperformed and that has me worried. there's been no negative news on it. it's just underperformed and i don't like when a stock does that. >> it moved from $90 to $118. >> i don't take comfort from that. >> take comfort from the fact that it trades 15 times 2015 earnings of $8 a share.

in the environment, these guys are all talking about volatility, this is a stock you want to own. this is where you are a defensive player. >> i actually think the watch can flop and apple pay could become such a huge story that it would almost not matter. apple's had flops before. they had a flop with the radio. et cetera, et cetera. there's other things they haven't been able to do right. >> exactly. >> on top of the radio, they didn't have the most success with a lot of things that they've done. but the things they do well that are hits tend to overshadow those failures. i think pay is a smash hit. so i would own the stock for that alone right now. >> i totally agree. look, music to my ears. i think apple pay is going to drive device sales which is where their margins are. i think they're going to revolutionize the pay business here. i think they'll make a tremendous amount more money in the twice sales from the margin back there. >> great. betting on the turnaround, one video game stock down 20% in

2014. but, one of our traders says it could make a major comeback this year. find out who it is and how to play it right after this break. also, hedge fund heavyweight bill ackman and a new fight against herbalife. the all new, head turning cadillac ats coupe. it's irresistible. ♪

female announcer: even tempur-pedic mattress sets at low clearance prices. save even more on floor samples, demonstrators, and closeout inventory. the year end clearance sale is on now at sleep train. ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪

top trades tonight. activist investor bill ackman is going to be the keynote speaker in chicago at a town hall meeting sponsored by the league of united latin american citizens who are also critics of herbalife. an activist with the organization saying that bill ackman is "our brother in the struggle." josh, what do you make of this and what does it mean for the stock, more importantly? >> it is kind of interesting. because that organization has actually spearheaded some lawsuits against that company. but they've kept their distance from pershing square. but now it looks like they've decided to kind of throw in together. ackman has crazy moment with both this trade and his fund in general. i think he's great. this will be really entertaining for all of us either way that don't have a position, especially a long position, because that stock appears to be losing ground. he appears to be coming into his

own in a way this trade is shaping up after a really rough experience early on. >> my only question on this -- and i don't have a position one way or the other -- but if this is a scam, wouldn't it have been found out by now? we're in our second year -- >> wlohoa, whoa, that's a reall good question. a year ago i said this is very possible this is just a terrible predator company. but it is not illegal. i'm not -- >> if it's evolved into that, fine. but i think somebody should say that. >> ultimately it has to trade on sentiment. on fundamentals i actually -- from the cheap seats here, clearly they are the cheap seats, i don't think there is anything wrong with this company. i think their margins are fantastic. their asset life is very undervalued. >> what's wrong with the company is what ends up happening to the entrepreneurs that come in to business with them and they actually think that they're

going to become distributors and -- >> it's a very small percentage that succeed but you could make the same argument about a lot of endeavors. you could say about brokerages that sell the idea of outperformance to investors when last year only 10% of active managers beat their benchmark. so it is a really tough argument to make. it's not been totally successful but i think it is starting to come along. >> momentum is on his side. next, is king digital falling in today's trade? the stock down more than 20% since its debut in march 2014. can it make a comeback in 2015? i remember we talked a lot about the ipo and the lead-up. now i don't flow, the proof kno kind of in the puddle. >> candy crush became public at $22 a share back in march. the stock's been broken ever since. for two reasons. investors don't believe in the business model and there is a big lock-up that's coming due in

mid-february right after they report. there is a huge amount of shares coming to the market. shorts have been all over this thing. i think it has a 40% short interest. i just believe that they're showing that they're monetizing in different ways. they've got roughdy -- i think their revenues are up 160% in non-candy crush revenue stream. look, this company is taking different steps. it is a misunderstood company. it is a content company. i think people compare them a lot to zynga. it is a very, very different business model. i think once the shorts get off their banging the stock down in this lock-up -- >> is that an accounting term? >> non-candy crush. >> i'm a believer. i think it is going to go higher. it is officially 2015. as everyone is getting in shape for the new year -- at least some people are getting in shape for the new year -- it is time for some financial fitness right here on the desk. traders share their big trading resolutions right after the break.

time now for "pops & drops." big movers of the day. wynn resorts down 1%. >> i don't think gambling is the type of consumption that the chinese government has in mind as it tries to evolve its economy. i think really you should stay out of wynn. >> these mlp structures. these guys today say they're cutting the div. very interesting. talk about tax selling. a lot of these guys are worth

looking at. >> there is an analyst saying synaptics lost to another company. these are tough, these supply chain names for mobile. i tend to avoid them. they are the last ones to see problems coming. the eoms can cut them out at any time. i would avoid them. >> drop for tesla. >> i am a seller. this stock is priced to perfection here. i think there is a lot of competition coming down the pike. this stock is priced like this their is no competition. lot off execution risk. >> watch out tesla. time for some financial fitness. 2015 is officially under way now and we want to make sure the traders got in shape with some resolutions for trading in the new year. let's go around the horn. dave, start with you. >> i'm in a scenario where volatility is going to pick up. i'm not an owner. i think you made the easy money over the past couple years buying basically anything and watching it go up. i think this year will require a little bit of intellect.

>> a little bit of brain power. >>cy am absolutely a renter versus an owner this year. >> maybe slightly different conversion than dave but don't overtrade this market. if you think there is more volatility ahead, i do, too. but i've lost a lot of money overtrading my portfolio. if you think that the world is in a very dicey time, this means cutting back on good positions. if you own good companies at good prices, have conviction and make sure your portfolio is hedged but don't do it all on that same day when the market is down. >> i'm going to stop eating after 8:00 at night. sometimes i just instead of dealing with my problems -- oh. trading resolutions. sorry. here's what i did this year that i was really unhappy with and i won't be doing it again. py took some investment type scenarios and confused them with trades and visa versa. there is a really big difference between trading and investing. when i'm trading i'm going to stick with strong stocks, not cheap stocks, and i want strong stocks getting stronger when i'm

looking at shorter-term time frames. i think that's a really key distinction to make for all of you watching at home. >> i'm worried about the late night ice cream. >> no, it is not the ice cream. it is the mexican food. >> i'll keep it short and sweet. i'm going to believe in high self-more. when i pick my stocks, i'm not going to listen to what people say about the markets, what color tie i'm wearing. i'm just sticking to what i believe in. >> we believe in you, jim! you can do it, buddy. those were the new year's resolutions. these are the final trades. around the horn one more time. >> freeport mac. i am in this trade and i say it long. >> jcpenney. the consumption pie is growing. their share will stay constant but they'll earn more money. >> i think small caps will outperform large caps this month. i like iwm to play it. >> good things come in small packages i'm told. >> i love high-end retailers. i think tiffany is going to do

really well. i'm a buyer. >> great to have you all with us tonight. that does it for us right now on "fast money." catch us back leer on monday, 5:00 p.m. eastern and a brand-new studio. don't miss "options action." that's next. talking about the one former dow stock that's crashed the market this year. we'll tell you what it is and whether or not it will continue. but that is after the break. stay with us. we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2.

this is "options action." tonight -- >> look. up in the sky. it's a bird. >> it's a plane. >> no, it's actually one former dow component that's trouncing the market. we'll tell you the surprising name and how you can profit. plus -- >> no. be afraid. be very afraid. >> even as stocks rise, the vix is surging. trouble ahead? we'll give you the set-up. talk about outlandish calls -- >> my style is impetuous. i want to eat your children. >> maybe not that outlandish. we've got the wildest predictions for 2015 and we'll