a very warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody. here are your headlines from around the world. european leaders voice support for greece amid questions in the eurozone. the oil majors take the center stage pushing the oil stocks into the red. bp earnings in danger due to plunging prices and the slide in the rouble. iran's president references

a referendum on key issues from the west. >> translator: i swear to god that this is not possible. a political life experience tells us that the country cannot have sustained growth in isolation. and a stock on the move. shares in bmw sink to the bottom of the stoxx 600 after the german carmaker confirms to pay subsidies to those who suffered losses last year. happy new year to all the viewers returning from holiday to join us on "worldwide exchange." wilfred, happy new year to you as well. >> you are like five days late but how was your holiday off? i hope it was much enjoyed. >> it was wonderful being back

in the u.s. and spending a few days in berlin learning history to get to know more on what's taking place in europe. i learned how people will invest in the new year. >> don't pretend, you went there for a fun new year's trip. >> yes, but i also have my journalist hat on to understand what is going to happen this year. europe is a big focal point and some investors expect them to outperform u.s. stocks this year. >> at evaluation times it could be possible. i think it will be binary for european stocks as a whole, but we have had the rally in the u.s. market and the binary market. that would be understandable given there's quantitative easing, but i think we are due a big correction early in the market. >> a big story looking at last year with stock prices and bond prices rising. we'll see if that will continue into the new year, but let's

also take a look at currencies because the euro has slumped to lows not seen since march of 2006 as investors gear up for the bank's ability to fulfill its mandate, even though it's at greater risk. the ecb could pull the trigger at its first policy meeting of the year on january 22nd. however, a new poll from the financial times shows economists are skeptical that a bond-buying program can revise the economy. a majority of the aides say this will discuss something else. happy new year to you. >> happy new year. >> let's talk about the quantitative easing expectations in europe and then move on to asia. the bond markets in europe and the euro are suggesting we'll get bond-buying at the first ecb meeting this year.

is that what you agree to expect? >> that certainly seems to be what is being priced in by the movements we're seeing in the last couple of days in the euro. and i don't know if we have any huge insight around the workings of the ecb. it is clearly a very difficult decision for them to make creating tensions within the managing board of the ecb. and so it seems likely we'll see something like that in the first few months but whether it is actually this month we'll have to wait and see. >> and is the question as to whether we get it or not, is it an economic one or does europe need this sovereign bond buying or is it a political one as to whether germany allows the workings of the voters inside the ecb work for them? >> it is more of a political decision as opposed to an economic one. we agree with the survey you highlighted suggesting skepticism on what quite this does. so the idea is very much to reduce borrowing costs to make

things easier perhaps to borrow money. then we look at the sovereign bond markets and the italian ten-year bond is currently trading at 1.75%. that's the lowest we have on recent record. and what will stimulus do to aid this isn't clear. >> we are looking at the currency space. the euro the value has fallen to the lowest level since the middle of 2010. how much lower do you think it can go especially as draghi continues to provide dubbish commentary? >> well, we tend to agree with the consensus that they expect the euro to continue to decline. it's very much a two-sided story when we look at currencies. and many people have often referred to it as an ugly contest where the dollar and the u.s. dollar is the least ugly currency around because of all the problems we see in the rest of the world. >> and we're going to come back to peter in a suggest. in the meantime german inflation dates is due at 2:00

p.m. central european time. and that's ahead of that we have had regional data out. the december cpi number came in minus 0.01%. we are just below the flat for the month number. we also have other year on year numbers that have just come in. it is still a big concern for europe. low inflation is a concern for the u.s. as well. boston fed president says the central bank should take its time in normalizing monetary policy following years of stimulus to boost the u.s. economy. speaking at the annual meeting of the american economics association this weekend, rosengrain said inflation across the world and small wage in price pressure in the u.s.

should force the fed to move slowly. >> the low inflation means we may be able to be a little more patient than we have in the past as long as we're experiencing very low inflation there's no reason for the path to be particularly abrupt. >> all right. so that was boston-fed president eric rosengren. do you think the low inflation, which will be accentuated by the decline in oil prices will that slow the normalization of rates in the u.s.? >> yes. we can take a different view for much of the market so very much the expectation is very gradual start of normalization, rate rising in the u.s. and slow by low oil prices and inflation. we suspect that actually it's the young intended consequences of the post-crisis policy to keep policy much looser than people expect perhaps longer than is currently needed by the

fed. >> do you think oil prices will continue to drop? >> well, there's always that possibility. this is an indication of a broader trend we're seeing huge amounts of competition very much coming through. and that's the aspect that we don't talk about when we talk about what has happened post-crisis. so we're looking very much for the pickup in demand to continue to grow whereas what the oil price of this reflects is a more general increase in supply. so what we also see is relative very low cost of borrowing and very strong supply. and in all sorts of areas, that's perhaps the things to keep policy on hold for longer than people expect. >> i know we haven't had the rate rises yet, but quantitative easing has ended in the u.s. if we look at the outlook for the fundamentals in the u.s. and compare that to europe and japan that haven't had quantitative easing, could we say this worked? >> well, we don't know how it has played out yet but this is

the third wave of quantitative easing in the u.s. this time was three times larger and lasted longer than the previous experience but we are seeing economic volatility return so we are seeing the suppression come through in the u.s. and there has been some undoubted improvement in the economy. but 2015 is going to be the year where we see quite how the backdrop behaves without the u.s. qe for the first time probably since the cry sils. >> what do we expect bond yields to do this year? last year we had a consensus bond yields couldn't go lower and they did. we have had all the yield compression that's out there, they can't go lower again, can they? >> this is where we think slightly different to the consensus. the consensus believes last year was an aberration. we think that perhaps what we saw last year was a broader reflection of more deflationary

trends across a whole wide range of areas. that's the reason the consensus will be wrong again and we could see lower bond yields in the u.s. continue to come through because of that. it certainly seems a greater prospect than the kinds of things the consensus is talking about. >> we are watching the u.s. ten-year trading below 1% for quite some time. we'll continue our conversation with peter hensman, global strategist, but first a market update. thank you for that. the stoxx 600 is flat as we opened down and strengthened a little bit to about 0.30%. the stoxx 600 is fractionally

down. the stoxx 50 is a little weaker down 0.2%. we kicked off trading with very low volumes on friday slightly down. that's where we are for monday. higher bond yields given most people are back to work today. the ftse 100 is down and italy is also down .25%. we'll look at the big individual movers. bmw trading to the bottom of the stoxx 600 after agreeing to pay $820 million in subsidies to its chinese dealers, a decision by the german automaker will offset losses made by the dealer last year down 1.6%. bp is down the best part of 3% after reports the company could lose up to $750 million from the holding in the fourth quarter in russia. it may be forced to scrap its dividend following the price in oil and the slump in rouble. tesco is just below flat. it was earlier slightly higher

but this on news it's going to cut jobs and change supply contacts. this is following an accounting scandal. a terrible year for tesco. club med is down 2.35%. it is for more on this story on club med, we'll join stefan. happy new year. >> happy new year. they are in for the longest battle in the history. club med is a french resource company on the view of its shareholders. the chinese investment company is fighting to see this happen

one year ago. just before the weekend they decided to drop this considering the evaluation was lower offered by foreign international. club med didn't make profit in the last two years and the company lost 11 million euros this year. and they didn't pay any dividends since 2011. the share price is up 45% in one year because of the battle to take control of the company. now they are offering the company an offer in the coming days. the chinese tourists will hopefully boost the future of club med and this is the second

largest market looking at new types of resources designed for wealthy chinese customers. stephan, thank you. we saw bond buying in the u.s. friday after slightly weaker construction manufacturing data at 2.11% on the ten-year. but most of the moves have been in the european bond market. starting really last monday after the greek votes confirmed with the parliamentary elections causing a risk of sentiment. of course comments came over the weekend suggesting we are closer to ecb action meaning more yield compression and a ten-year in germany is at 0.95%. astonishing lower yields for the uk. we have had record ten-year bond yields in the likes of spain italy. italy is at 0.17%. the strongest yield for the broader index but today there's

not much movement. worth mentioning the moves in the euro as we hit 1.1864 earlier in trade. which is a nine-year low. it covered a bit of ground but it is still down .40%. sri is standing by in singapore. hopefully he's coming up sri, there we go. good morning to you. >> here i am wilfred. a happy new year to you. we have the bad and the ugly for the asian markets. a mixed session with the whole move sour because of the down beat manufacturing surveys we saw last week. coming out of the u.s., here are is standout outperformer. fresh five-year highs at the settlement with the market up 4%. it was the property developers that really led the shanghai higher on the back of expectations and announcements rather that we will see more restrictions in the mortgage policy to encourage first-time buyers and give a shot in the

arm to the ailing property market. we did see some associated follow-through buying in the hang seng market. chasing stocks are higher without falling to the close. the hang seng off .60%. quite choppy trading all in all ending negativity. just modestly we saw positive momentum that came back down again. it was really defensive stock-oriented today. and markets in japan respooked by what's going on in the old neck of the woods with europe. political anxiety in greece got a lot of investors going in to the defensive sector. that is where we stand here in asia. back to you know seema. sri, thank you so much. coming up on "worldwide exchange," fresh from his vacation, barack obama is hitting the road to promote his 2015 agenda. but can the president get around republican opposition in congress? we'll discuss that next. plus which u.s. banks could

be in line to pay out dividend this is year? we stress-test the financials as they submit their proposals to the fed. and calling all job seekers. we reveal the rather unique job involving paintballing that includes 10,000 worldwide applicants. we'll bring you that story coming up on "worldwide exchange." ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the evolution of luxury continues. the next generation 2015 escalade.

welcome back. we have flashes coming out of libya that suggest two crew members of a greek boat have died after libyan military aircraft bombed an oil tanker. it's been anchored at the libyan port of duna. this follows stories over the last week or so with the heightened fight in libya putting pressure on oil price supplies. of course that hasn't offset the global price as it has continued to weaken. speaking of oil learning about the broader implications it's having on different countries, iran's president has appealed to support reforms in a bid to re-buy the economy addressing a group of economists assad roumani

references those weary negotiations with the west in order to lift sanctions. we'll bring in nbc's ali aruzi on the ground in tehran. what's the likelihood of the referendum coming to place? >> reporter: that's a very good question. i think this referendum is more of a threat that a reality. by putting out this referendum rouhani is also giving a warning to the hard-liners in iran that the deal won't allow the economy to revive. and he's safe-guarding himself. rouhani has been trying extremely hard to push the nuclear deal through to revive the economy, but there are very strong hard-line forces in this country that don't want this to happen. they don't want foreign investment in the country, especially american foreign investment because they think with foreign investment comes foreign influence that will chip away their power base in the country. they don't want to see a situation that the u.s. had with cuba currency happening in iran.

the last thing the hard-liners in iran want to see is a u.s. embassy here. so the president of iran has a battle on his hands to try to balance what the hard-liners want and what is best for the economy. productivity in the country has almost crashed with almost no productivity and he doesn't blame the sanctions for that. he blames the mismanagement of the previous government. so what he's trying to do with this referendum is safeguard himself. he'll say, i did everything i can to push this nuclear deal to revive the economy, but there were dark forces in the country that didn't want this to happen and it was out of my hands. seema? >> ali, thank you so much for giving us the update. we'll check in with you throughout the next hour. let's bring in back peter hensman. the weak oil prices we have had in receiptnt weeks should be a fantastic thing for the global

economy. >> i guess we suspect there's a bit of both. clearly there has been a big increase in the u.s. supply but also we think it is more broadly reflective of a weaker demand that is slowing perhaps in the chinese economy. that's something people have been aware of in recent times, too. >> let's talk a bit about positioning because everything we have heard so far has been quite cautious in terms of outlook. how are you positioned given that? >> actually that to us is something we're looking at for 2015. preservation of capital. so the world at large is very much looking for sustained improvement in the economy and expectation for rate rises that would be food for risk assets in general. we're slightly more concerned that the end of the qe experiment risks volatility and some of the more deflationary indications are much more broadly than the oil price. that suggests our stability is a core part of what we're looking

at for the next 12 months. >> surely the decline in oil prices will weigh on energy earnings. of course the u.s. earnings set to kickoff this week. we'll get a better indication of how much the oil producers and the energy oil companies are hurting. >> absolutely. there's a challenge for those who are producing oil. and again, when we look at the u.s. economy, the percentage of job percentage activity resulting from the pickup in the search for oil, that is going to be a challenge with this oil price decline. so it's not just a straight gain even for the u.s. >> that's a great point because energy capex has contributed a significant amount to the u.s. economy. if oil prices continue to decline, that will show us if capex is lower going into the new year. >> yes, and the unemployment gain has come through in states like texas or alaska. if you strip those out, you have not seen an increase in u.s. employment from the 2008 peak. so there are negatives to this

as well as positives. >> i just want to touch on one asset class in particular that sometimes you have positions in we have the prospect of significant more money printing from various countries. why was the dollar price not stronger in 2014 than it was? >> again, we suspect it's something that the market has potentially gotten wrong. and so the pickup in real yields and expectations for rate rises and normalization and confident that we got rid of the credit crunch volatility is one of the reasons why the gold price has declined. we were quite surprised by that. we still think that the legacy of too much debt remains very relevant. as you say, we are still seeing quite extraordinary policy. so what we have seen in the last couple of days when the dollar has been strong oil prices have been declining but the gold price is going up. we suspect some of the safehaven aspect of gold could resume to being a favored aspect of that

asset. >> peter, thank you very much for joining us. much appreciated. peter hensman, global strategist at newton investment management. another fun story, are you sick and tired of the boring desk job? this job could be for you. 10,000 people around the world have applied for the paintballing economy. it was shot by the volume of responses to the human bullet impact tester position. people from as far as india and canada applied for the job that pays 40,000 pounds sterling or around $60,000 a year. >> not bad. >> not bad. >> not bad pay. we should send you on assignment there, wilfred. >> as long as i'm allowed to take the extra pay, i'm not doing it for free. but what is your dream job? get in touch with us e-mail us at worldwide@cnbc.com or get in touch with us on twitter twitter @cnbcwex.

growing up i wanted to be a footballer, no chance. james bond no chance. or be on tv there was no chance but somehow i convinced somebody to give me a chance at it. i'm in my dream job already. >> you may still have a chance at soccer. maybe arsenal will see you as a good catch. >> well, if our results continue to go quite so badly, it is possible in a million year's time. >> are you good? you play on a league team on the weekend, right? >> a league is a generous term to use. but no i try hard. >> any time you want to face-off on the tennis court, i'm happy to beat you. still to come on the show 2014 was a year to forget for many emerging markets. but our next guest is looking forward to an even recovery this year. find out more after this short break.

you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. the euro hits a nine-year low as investors wrap up bets on quantitative easing this month. meanwhile, europeans support greece amid questions over its future in the euro zone. the price of oil falling to a five-year low. bp's earnings are also in danger due to plunging prices and the slide in the russian rouble. iran's president says the oil price won't impact the country's future as he issues a

referendum to lift western sanctions. >> translator: i swear to god that this is not possible. our political life experience tells us the country cannot have sustained growth in isolation. shares of bmw sinking to the bottom of the stoxx 600 after the german carmaker confirms it will pay significant subsidies to its chinese dealers who suffers losses last year. we just got some data from the u.k. december construction pmi has come out at 57.6. that's lower than november's reading of 59.4. reuters expectations were 59.0. it has come below expectations and below november's reading. the lowest number since july 2013. so some disappointment from the u.k. pmi coming out. although not too big of a move in the markets for the back of the sterling as it was before at

152.9. >> just to provide historical reference, the market purchasing reference showed activity expanding at the lowest price in more than a year in the month of november. even in october construction fell for competitive environment, a shortage of skilled workers and the reasons have been cited as one of the reasons we have seen weaker than expected construction. so after slightly weaker than expected data not a big nuevo in the currency space. here on january 5th, how are they faring? we got the dubbish commentary from mario draghi on friday that did not have the markets move higher. in fact, the focus has been on the euro trading at a multi-year low. taking a look at the euro stocks this is a good gauge of stocks across the eurozone. that's trading lower by ten points or .53%.

>> they hit a nine-year low earlier at 1.1864 down over a percent on the day, but it recovered ground at 1.195 down just slightly on the day. the dollar is at 120.2. the other big mover is the small number at the swiss franc at 1.004. we'll look at the oil prices weak yet again today down over a percent for both wti and brent. wti is at 52 and brent is at 55.76. and talking about oil, the dramatic decline in prices could help drive a gradual but divergent recovery for the market this is year according to our next guest joining us now. head of the society general, ben, it's a great point going forward as a lot of strategist call for winners and losers in

the emerging market world. especially as we watch the price of oil drop farther that is a boom for asia? >> there were a few standout cases like russia columbia, those countries are in trouble. but generally speaking to me lower growth picking up, this is probably good. so from a growth standpoint, i see improvement in the emerging markets this year. >> who are the winners then? >> i think turkey is theon its way for strong growth performance here. and south africa is also on my list. >> in india, that's helped its current account deficit as one of the big reasons we saw the market.

lower growth was slowing in 2013, but this drop in the price of oil is expected to help narrow its current account deficit. >> that enhanced the political ability that you have seen in india with a new governor and more on the physical front. yaind is india is looking strong right now. >> the weaker oil price and the stronger dollar, is that a trend for the emerging markets? >> weaker currencies again participate in the boost to growth. so from a fundamental standpoint, it's a good thing. now, if you're a currency investor, this is not the time to buy currencies. so right now i'm technical defensive on the currencies and am going to be much more positive on fixed income. >> let's talk about that. you are tactically cautious in the short-term but watching the e merging markets long-term.

what's the catalyst view of changing your opinion? >> the big inflation point is the fed rate hike. which right now the anticipation of that creating a lot of fear but when the fear subsides when the fed actually starts this cycle, there's going to be a massive relief rally and it will be time to buy emerging markets then. >> that's the anti-consensus view because what's the difference from may 2013 when we did not get the rate hike but the expectation of the rate hike killed markets. what will happen this time around? >> expectations it's sort of the way the market is going to prepare. and it's the way the fed actually communicates. in may 2013 it was a bombshell. it was panic mode. it was about emerging markets. now the market is much better prepared. and the big game changer here is the fed, yes, going to tighten. but the tight anything is going to be gradual. when investors realize that it's going to be massive relief.

>> stay with us as we focus on russia. a volatile session for the russian rouble including the start of this year as the oil prices continue to slide. it's also been a mixed session so far, but the micex today trading despite being a public holiday in russia. elsewhere, representatives from the foreign ministries of russia ukraine, germany and france aught to meet in berlin to discuss a settlement to the crisis in ukraine. before we look at the outlook for russia and the fall in currency has it been more effective by sanctions or by a fall in the oil price? >> i would say initially last year the sanctions was the main shock. more recently it's the oil price. so previous impact. if you look at the micro picture in russia it's in de-stress. >> do you think the situation in russia gets worse before it gets better or have we hit a be the tom? >> from the micro standpoint, it does get worse. and the negative bombshell is

going to be the downgrade of the rating in a matter of weeks. >> how much can yields rise then if we do see that? >> they are already quite high but i would say there's going to be a technical impact of that. the investors only investing in the credits are going to pull out. we'll have maybe another 100, 200 points south. >> despite looking at your note you are long in the rouble for 2015, is that right? >> well, the currency is a different story. we are starting from a regular base. and what we have observed recently, and i believe that has been used if you can believe it is the authorities in bailout mode. they are securing the local banking sector. they are much more aggressive on the up versioninversion front, so i think the panic is over. >> stick with us because another story getting a lot of attention is north korea. north korea is calling fresh u.s. sanctions against the

country hostile and offensive. washington imposed the sanctions friday against three north korean organizations. and ten people thought to be involved with the hack against sony pictures. north korea denied any involvement in the attack which was thought to be linked to the film "the interview" which details and assassination attempt on kim jong-un. a salvage operation is set to begin on a ship that ran aground in the channel off the u.k. south coast. all 25 crew members have been rescued from the singapore ship heading from south hampton to germany. the cargo vessel ran aground on saturday in shallow waters but the exact circumstances remain unclear. the mission to recover the wreckage and bodies from the missing airasia jet is continuing with divers taking advantage of calmer waters. reports suggest the team may have found a fifth large object in the sea using sonar technology. however, no signal has been detected from the plane's black box reporters.

katy tur filed this report. >> reporter: at the search zone bad weather and rough shes once again. divers hoping to get a visual on the dark shadow believed to be the fuselage on the sea floor were forced to resurface because of strong currents and poor visibility under water. indonesia's head of search and rescue operations said our priority now is to dive in the area where we found the objects which we suspect are part of the body of the plane. and in jakarta optimism that the black boxes would be located tomorrow. right now five ships are searching using specialized acoustic equipment listening for pings. despite the concrete information, the meteorological information shows that this triggered the crash. this as more bodies were recovered and identified. inside this complex is the second largest church in surabaya. they alone lost 41 members of their congregation.

on sunday prayers for the lost. >> everyone grieves and everyone is going through traumatic times. with e do need to be with them and hold their hands. let them know that we are there. and provide real support. >> reporter: so far nine have been identified and their funerals have already begun. still, a week after the crash, so many others have not been recovered. as their families wait and grieve. katy tur, indonesia. still to come on "worldwide exchange," venezuela's president is looking for friends in high places as the takes off for china and meets with several opec countries as well. we'll tell you more after this short break.

welcome back. the japanese markets are open for business and investors seek reassurance the prime minister abe is serious about a plan to revive the economy this year. we'll go out to makiko with the full story live from tokyo. >> yes, he said his goal for the year was to carry out bold and swift reforms in all areas and does have a lot on his plate. having been re-elected following

a landslide victory in last month's election, he has the luxury of being able to focus on tackling policy issues. the biggest challenge is the economic recovery. having postponed the second consumer tax hike planned for later this year he needs to find other ways to restore fiscal health. new growth strategies are being put together as the government plans to cut corporate tax rates by more than 3% in the next two years estimated to relieve firms from paying $4 billion in tax. there's also focus on de-regulation in health care and the labor market. another issue has been the lack of energy in regional economies and more measures to give them a boost is under review especially since there will be local worldwide elections held in april this year. on the security front, abe is keen to pass a law to allow japan's self-defense forces to aid allies should they come under military attack. and that's all from the nikkei. back to you. >> thank you very much makiko. and president obama is returning to washington from his

vacation in hawaii on sunday but he won't be in town for long. the president is promoting his 2015 agenda with a three-day three-state tour starting on wednesday. he'll lay out executive actions and proposals on education, housing and jobs ahead of the state of the union speech on january 20th. this is the different approach as the white house typically waits right before the speech to disclose what the president is talking about. meanwhile, congress returns to work today with the republican majority taking charge. lawmakers are expected to tackle a few issues this week including energy and obamacare. house republicans will move on legislation to jumpstart the keystone xl pipe line and a bill to get rid of the affordable health care as a full-time employee with anyone working with a minimum of 30 hours a week. and switching focus to the u.k., with just five months to go before the u.k. voters head to the polls, all three main parties trade blows in a bid to win over the public.

under pressure from euro skeptics, david cameron hinted at an early eu referendum. the u.k. prime minister said he could bring forward an in-out vote currently pencilled in for 20 2016. >> build dlibted the soon eric deliver on this commitment of the renegotiation and the referendum, the soon eric deliver on that the better. if i don't get what i want i rule nothing out. and i rule nothing out means just that. >> i was reading a strategist who said that the likelihood of the u.k. exiting or going forward with this eu referendum that's being seen as a risk. >> of course it is a big risk for the future. i mean, the question going into the election on that issue is whether cameron can convince the voters that what he outlines as having a renegotiation attempt for a yield and then a

referendum is just as good as what the u.k. is offering. because you can't offer to exit without a referendum. in that sense the two outcomes are similar. but i watched the interview yesterday and the big issue being ignored is the constitutional reform. everyone is focusing on immigration and the eu. no one is talking about the son city tugs constitutional reform yet. it is interesting that he's coming on the show in a couple weeks' time. and later today chancellor george osborne will accuse the labor party of failing to excuse how 20 billion pounds in commitments will be funded. and he's also expected to say his plan quote, puts working people first, deals with the deficit and protects the nhs.

germ academyany has no contingency plans this morning. the eurozone could not be quote, blackmailed and the goal of germany and the european union is to keep greece in the block. this comes in the wake of the report that germany believes the eurozone can cope with a greek exit. greece heads to the polls on january 25th with the skeptic party leading in the polls, so a lot of political urn certainty there looking at greece and europe as a whole. >> that's a big question for the 22nd of january. the ecb meeting there with the greek election. >> it will be a fun month and fun year, indeed. the french president hollande says greece has paid a heavy price to stay in the eurozone. and he also vowed to boost growth domestically. let's go to stephan in paris for more.

>> francois hollande made clear he wants to remain part of the eurozone. however, it's important for the new government to expect the country's commitment as it is basically what francois hollande told the french network this morning. he said they would remain firm on demanding iran to give up the nuclear weapons. also regarding the issue in syria, he made clear france would not have a clear map date from the united nations. regarding the french economic situation, the target for this year is to raise the economy growth of 1% compared to iran with 0.4% at last year. francois hollande said he'll do everything to push the economic growth above 1% because it's the minimum to reduce the unemployment rate in france, which is one of the main concerns for the french president.

francois hollande is confident that it will reduce the regulation, it will bear fruit to fuel economic growth in case the french economy group would be higher than expected this year, the government will use the profits to reduce the public deficit rather than reducing further taxes. that also has been announced this morning by francois hollande in the first sbririnterview of the year. thank you for that report. we'll focus on venezuela but the president is embarking on a week-long tour to china and several opec member countries. the leader is aiming to boost partnerships with china which is already the primary country to finance them on oil deals. james lockhart smith is here from. james, when you talk about the

countries impacted by the drop in oil prices. venezuela is definitely on the list, but that's not the only issue venezuela is dealing with they have food shortages, higher inflation, what's your outlook for this year? >> there's no master plan in place. nothing is going to solve the country's deep-rooted economic challenges. as you point out exposure to oil prices is very high. 96% for the country in revenues come from oil. but you're also dealing with 10 to 15 years of unfriendly prices to the manufacturing sector prices. you've got an exceptionally distorted currency situation and the official rate is 6.3 over the dollar and the stock market is trading at 100. the country has problems. but china really is looking for the chinese parachute to the problems it's facing.

if i calculate it oil prices will come up again toward the end of this coming year. but if they can just give vep someday venezuela something, they will not deport on their debt before the end of the year. i think there's a very high probability. you have principal and interest payments coming later in the year, the country has less in foreign reserves stored that it has currently in debt. so it's in a complicated situation. >> ben, is this something you agree with or is there definitely going to be a default? >> i give it a 90% chance on default. i think it's going to be a very difficult thing to avoid. if you look at the overall picture, venezuela is by far the most distressed country in the

world. this is quite outrageous. the way things are going there. the currency pressures, this country is running out of reserves. it is really catastrophic. >> where does oil need to come in terms of price for the country to start making profits again on oil revenue? >> at this point it is a moot point. this is beyond the discussion of where the oil price is because we've had too much cost. >> can you agree with what the markets initially said? >> yes, i would. i think the break even price is around $110 to $120 per barrel. this is not saudi arabia where you can produce oil for $6 to $7 a barrel. i would root it at 90%. >> venezuela can work on ways to

reduce its costs and production put into oil services to therefore deal with the drop in the price of oil? >> i don't think there's anything that can be done immediately. the economy is in a terrible state and the government faces formidable pressures from the statehoods. that's underpinning why it is where it is now. it's not related to the people who know how to construct economic policies. the policy that exists is based on the spend ging led by the government. i don't see any -- you can contract that with the case of brazil where the positives are coming out, but venezuela is in a difficult situation. >> how are they managing to get by then? >> brazil is and interesting situation. it's got terrible growth prospects for this year maybe half a percent. inflation is still very high.

but after the president was re-elected, she elected a new finance minister and planning minister. she's announcing some cuts. there are some other austerity measures coming in. the central bank is half the level it was at. it's a complicated situation, but this is in terms of policy and it is not exposed to oil prices in the same way. >> brazil has a positive outlook this year? >> i'm still plenty negative. it's all about policies. i'm struggling to give her, the president, the benefit of the doubt. i know she has a second chance and i know the first attempt was pretty poor. but i'm still very skeptical. >> and let's talk more generally, finally, about which emerging markets to pick next year. you're saying it's growth ones over liquidity is that right? >> growth is going to pick up. so asia is to be the area where

growth is. so even from the currency standpoint, we talked about the strong dollar and how it affects currencies. but at this level it looks fantastic. if you want to buy in a currency go to asia. >> and to touch on the korean one, why is the korean one included in your outlook? >> it does depend on international trade prospects and the global growth signals. so it's going to be very responsive to signals that growth is doing better. >> benoit anne thank you. and it's time to take down the tree and pack up the stockings. wall street bidding farewell to the santa claus rally, but can the rally continue in 2015?

welcome to "worldwide exchange." happy new year if you are just joining us. i'm seema mody. >> and i'm wilfred frost. >> the investors ramp up their bets for further quantitative easing from the ecb this month. u.s. futures point lower on the last official day of the santa rally. this after the boston fed president stresses the need for gradual rate hikes. and commodities are in focus. brent falling below $56 a barrel, but iran's president says the oil price won't impact the company's or country's future as he references a referendum on key issues in a

bid to lift western sanctions. and more bad news for pill pimco with assets at less than half their peak for 2015. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the world. and as we kickoff a new year oil continues to take center stage. of course, now trading below $56 a barrel. a 5 1/2 low for oil. some traders i speak to wilfred, are attributing it to the weakness in the euro. there's purchasing power of euro holders of the dollar denominated oil. so that could be a concern. >> yeah and i think the last week has been interesting to look at how weak the oil prices could be going forth. last monday we had kickoff of fighting in libya that affected two days' worth of production. that saw a brief rally but only

for one day by half a percent. since then we are back on the slide. it just underlines whether it is demand or supply led the weakness in the oil price to expect in the short-term. >> this is something traders are watching but sentiment also seems to be bearish. in looking a the price of oil, that's a reason we are seeing energy stocks also underperforming. the worst performing sector in the s&p last year. absolutely. over the course of the year as a whole, the u.s. markets are very strong. what can we expect this month? >> a 3% gain on the s&p this year on the second day of trading on wall street for 2015. the dow jones indicating a lower move by 64 points. the nasdaq down just 17 points. keep in mind the nasdaq was 5% away from breaking the all-time high, but since then the nasdaq has moved slightly lower. right now futures indicating a lower opening. we got disappointing u.s. economic data on friday. the chinese pmi coming in weaker than expected, so that is setting the tone of what to

expect in the month of january. right now i'm looking at the index trading lower around 19 points. keep in mind, this is a good gauge of stocks. multi-nationals across the world, diving into the markets are in focus after hearing from mario draghi on friday ending the sovereign bond buying. the question is is it just talk or will he deliver? right now we're looking at the european markets slightly lower on the day. the ftse 100 is down just 34 points. we did see the u.k. construction pmi falling to the lowest level since july of 2013. so while the u.k. is seeing the developed economy as one of the bright spots across europe that construction activity data continues to come in weaker than expected. so something to watch for the bulls out there. the xetra dax is trading lower. transand italy seeing a decline down triple digits 190-point move there down to the down side. the european parks seeing

another day of losses. >> this stems just from the risk of sentiment you touched on. if we want to look at one of the biggest stories of last year it was bond buying alongside the strong yield markets. we saw more of it on friday as we had slightly weaker data from the u.s. that compressed yields in the u.s. to just about 2.11%. we are continuing to see compression this year even if rates start going up. we have had more bond-buying over the last week in europe stemming first of all from result of that greek presidential nomination vote meaning we've got elections on the 25th of january in greece. we also have the ecb meeting on the 22nd of january as people are expecting several bond buying. that's why yields in the ten-year are 1.5%. the record lows over the last week there in italian and

spanish ten-year as well. the big movers today is the euro. now down .43% at 1.1949. this is on expectations of seeing easing sooner rather than later. the other markets, nothing too significant to look at today on the front. let's get a quick look at the oil prices as well. we continue to see this fall down. brent is down a similar amount at 55.7. let's check in as well quickly on the markets in asia. sri is standing by in singapore. sri? >> hi, wilfred. you mentioned the manufacturing surveys in the u.s. we are on the earnings side last week that seemed to have solved the mood broadly negatively in the asian markets, but this is where the standout is in outperformances. this is a fresh five-year high with the market up by over 3.6%.

as the property developers that led the way on the policy changes, really relaxation and the restrictions especially on the mortgage front, that should help stabilize the property market which is a weak link in the broader economy in china. and elsewhere, we have been choppy today with the defensives in favor with an eye on europe to renew the political apg zity coming out off greece concerning the investors out there. the nikkei is chasing some safety there. that's where we stand. pack to you in london. >> sri, thank you so much. we'll take a look at the year. it continues to appreciate against the u.s. dollar. the move we have not seen since 2006. right now trading at a multi-year low. speaking to germany's president, mario draghi said the ability to

fulfill the mandate is at greater risk. his comments further spanned expectations that the ecb could pull the trigger at the first policy meeting of the year on january 22nd. it's interesting, wilfred, coming on "worldwide exchange," many people say it won't happen until the 8th of the year but now many say it won't happen until february. that's in three weeks. >> the other question, if we do get it is whether it will be successful. in a new poll from the financial times, economists are skeptical that the bond-buying program can revive the underlying economy. a majority of those surveyed said qe would not boost europe's growth inflation levels. we'll discuss this with david scranton this morning from new york. happy new year to you. we'll kickoff with europe. if we see the quantitative

easing, will the effect of the markets be as binary as the qe levels of 1, 2 and 3 were in the u.s.? >> it's possible but there would have to be a significant amount of qe over an extended period of time. think about the united states for example. an example of what happened has been nearly six years and it's got much better than it had been six years ago with the u.s. economy really in a slow takeoff. i would expect the exact same reaction from europe quite frankly. >> slow but steady recovery in the u.s. as strategists expect the gdp stateside. do you think the u.s. economy will couldn't to strengthen with inflation a big risk over here? >> no. right now we are riding the momentum that happens to be strong, but at the end of the day we need to build in the end from the world, the united states right now over the economy isn't what the federal reserve would like it to be after six years of quantitative

easing. it is what i like to refer to as the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper right now that is the u.s. economy. without global demand the u.s. economy can't continue either. if the dollar keeps strength anything, my biggest concern is that the u.s. will not be able to export effectively and that could be the turning point in the united states stock market also. >> do you see the u.s. dollar being a headwind for the multi-nationals that report earnings this month? >> absolutely, yes. and in this month and even more so throughout 2015. >> of course a factor that could be in focus is whether we'll see the u.s. raise rates. in fact the boston fed president said the central bank should take its time in normalizing monetary policy following years of stimulus. speaking over the weekend, low inflation across the world and only small wage pressure in the u.s. should force the fed to

move slowly. listen in. >> the low inflation means we may be able to be more patient than we have in the past as long as we're experiencing very low inflation there's no reason for the path to be particularly abrupt. >> jeff dunlock has a different take of where the markets are headed this year while he expects the fed to start raising rate this is year, he believes that costs long-term yields to fall. the ten-year treasury yield could take out a low of 1.38% hit in hit. still with us is david scranton ceo of advisers academy. david, we'll talk about the bond market because it surprised everyone by going up last year. the yields coming down when rates do start going up what will be the reaction? >> well, first of all i don't think it's going to happen for a long time. i actually believe that the

federal reserve has a good chance they will not raise short-term rates or federal fund rates because they do not want to flatten the yield curve. i agree that we could have more downward pressure over the next year or so at least with long-term bonds in the treasury simply because as you mentioned earlier, our bonds are in the united states paying a higher interest rate than spanish bonds and italian bonds, other bonds considered to be riskier. as a result createing our long-term rates from going up in the united states meaning the bond market can continue to be strong in terms of price. certainly throughout 2015. >> and david, let's go back to the start of last year and equity investors feared the end of quantitative easeing and the other feared rates going up. i wonder if you temper your slight bearish moves on the

chance of the bigger of the two happening? >> well, what's really happened is when the fed reserve pulled back on qe much of europe went into a recession and inflationary environment. the analogy i like to make is like a tropical storm or hurricane, you have a tide but yet you have a storm surge that's keeping the water levels continuously rising. and over time that outgoing tide is going to win over the storm surge but the storm surge can last for a long time. that's where we're going right now, even though the calendar says quantitative easing has ended, we should be on the outbound tide. the tide should be dropping. the reality is the storm surge, that is the fact that a good part of the western world is in recession, is actually helping the u.s. market stay elevated for a while longer.

will it last through 2015? who knows. >> you just said you don't expect the fed to raise rates any time soon. if that's the case how do you recommend clients make money in the market? do you expect utilities to outperform given that they have the dividend yield of 3% much higher than the average dividend yield of the s&p 500? >> within the stock market yes, i believe your traditional defensive plays are going to continue to do better in 2015 as they did through most of 2014. in large part because the yield. but again, i also think that fixed income will hold its own for the year also. >> all right. david, thank you for joining us this morning. david scranton ceo of the advisers academy. now we'll take a look at today's other top stories. total return fund posted the 19.4 billion the 25th straight

month in outflows in december. president obama returning to washington from his vacation in hawaii on sunday, but he will not be in town for long promoting his 2015 agenda with a three-day three-state tour on wednesday. he'll lay out executive actions and proposals on education, housing and jobs ahead of the state of the union speech on january 20th. this is a different approach as the white house typically awaits until right before the speech to disclose what the president will be talking about. now, meanwhile, congress returns to work todd with a new republican majority taking charge. lawmakers are expected to tackle a few issues this week including energy and a bo maobamacare. they house republicans are looking to get rid of language in the affordable care act

defining a full-time employee as anyone working a minimum of 30 hours a week. now recovery teams working on the airasia wreckage get a break for the calmer weather, but the crucial search for the black box continues. we'll bring you more after this short break.

welcome back. let's give you some headlines. the your rehit asinine-year low on hopes the stimulus will remain under pressure. the u.s. futures point lower after the muted stocks of the new year count down to the fed meeting later this week. and pimco outflows are double last month with total assets half from their 2014 peak. and to bring you some sad news, a hedge fund founder was shot and killed in his manhattan apartment sunday. thomas gilbert sr. was shot in the head. his son was taken into custody sunday night but hasn't yet been charged. gilbert started wayne scott capital in 2011 with more than 200 million in assets specializing in biotech and health care. north korea is calling for fresh sanctions against the country from the u.s. hostile. ten people thought to be

involved against the hack in sony pictures are still denying their involvement. and a mission to recover the bodies from the airasia jet is continuing this morning as the divers take advantage of calmer waters. but no signal has been reported from the black box recorders. katy tur has filed this report. >> reporter: divers are hoping to get a visual on the dark shadow believed to be the fuselage on the sea floor forced to resurface because of strong currents and poor visibility under water. indonesia's head of search and rescue operations said our priority now is to dive in the area with where we found the objects which we suspect are part of the body of the plane. in jakarta optimism that the black boxes would be located tomorrow. right now five ships are searching for the recorders using specialized sonar

technology technology. indonesia's meteorological agency believes the weather did trigger the crash. this as more bodies were recovered and identified. inside this complex is the second largest church in surabaya. they alone lost 41 members of their cop congregation. many payers for the lost. >> everyone grieves and is going through a traumatic time we need to be with them hold their hands, let them know we are there and provide real support. >> reporter: so far nine have been identified. and their funerals have already begun. still a week after the crash so many others have not been recovered. as their families wait and grieve. katy tur, surabaya indonesia. still to come on "worldwide

exchange," a plea for economic reform at home as rouhani stresses the need for isolation against tehran. that's coming up after this break.

welcome back. second trading day of the year. u.s. futures are pointing to a lower open after u.s. stocks did close lower on friday january 2nd. right now the dow jones indicating a move lower by 60 points. the s&p 500 which by the way did gain 14% in the year of 2014. right now lower by nine points. the nasdaq is down 15 points. some of the reasons for the weakness stemming from the continued weak oil prices down just over a percent. the best part is 1.5%. brent is at 55.6. gold has bounced back a little bit up .40%. but it did manage to cross the 1200 level last week but it is sticking to a sustained level in the price. oil continues to being aprice.

iran's president rouhani said it is impossible to sustain growth in isolation. they are weary with negotiations in the west in order to lift sanctions. rouhani wants to hold a referendum to outside investment. >> translator: i swear to god that this is not possible. our political life experience tells us that the country cannot have us is taped growth in isolation. >> all right. we'll cross over to ali arouzi live there. what will this referendum achieve? will it help iran get public opinion on this nuclear deal with the u.s.? >> reporter: well, i think the most important thing is the referendum if it ever did happen will achieve its support for

rouhani. he wants to distinguish himself from the hard liners. we don't want to see a nuclear deal go through. so to say he's making his best effort was focused on a map date of providing the economy to bring in iran from the cold. so far he has not been able to do that because of domestic opposition. and he wants to bridge the gap between him and the hard liners. he would prefer iran to remain somewhat isolated so they can push their own agenda through to make a lot of money in the black market. but with the price of oil being so low, this is going to be very very difficult for rouhani to do. through iran's economic bank and the price being so low, it will be very difficult for them to do anything here. the iranian government has a minimum on the current budget of oil to slow the economy. i'm sorry, but the minimum they

needed to slow the economy is $70. what they have accounted for is -- it is going to be very difficult for them to push through all the reforms they want to do and to create jobs. seema? >> ali, thank you for that report. we'll be coming back to you as we get more news on this potential referendum in iran. now still to come on the show, it's that time of the year again with the federal reserve puts u.s. banks to the test. will lenders make the grade? we preview the stress test after this break.

10:30 a.m. here in london. 5:30 a.m. in the u.s. i'm seema mody.

the euro hitting a nine-year low as investors ramp up bets on quantitative easing from the ecb this month. the u.s. futures point lower on the last day of the santa rally. this after the boston feder i can rosenberg stresses the need for gradual rate hikes. oil falling below $56 a barrel, but iran's president says the oil price won't impact the country's future as he threat ups a referendum on key issues in a bid to lift western sanctions. and more bad news for pimco and their $20 billion in outflows last month leaving assets less than half their peak in 2013. you're watching "worldwide exchange" bringing you business news from around the globe. and if you're just returning to your trading desk after holiday, thank you for joining us on "worldwide exchange."

we'll take a look at u.s. futures and how they are faring after the s&p 500 gained 14% in the year of 2014. utilities lead the way before hitting the all-time high on friday. on the flip side energy stocks underperforming as oil prices continue to decline. in fact, oil prices hitting as we were just telling you a fresh 5 1/2-year low trading below $53 a barrel. taking a look at europe, you would think the european markets would be higher given the weak currency and the euro trading at the multi-year low. mario draghi hinting of further quantitative easing but this time the market is reacting negatively. in fact, the ftse 100 trading down 31 points. we did get disappointing data out of the u.k. construction pmi falling to the lowest level since july of 2013 as the housing market in the u.k. continues to cool. taking a look at xetra dax, the german market is down four points on the day.

and the cac 40 is down .19%. a down day, the second trading day of the year. once again, a down day for european markets wilfred. we'll have a quick look at europe. a nine-year low hit earlier today in trade as low as 1.1864. we are down 1.2% for the day. now we are down to 1.193. and seema, we'll talk a bit about the outlook on the markets because we look at the strong gain for the u.s. markets against a weak gain for the european markets. a lot of that looks at the fundamental outlook. but the ftse 100 was down throughout a course of 2014 and the outlook is looking good like the u.s. >> perhaps, but at the same point evaluation is not the only reason to get bullish on an asset class. there are multiple factors to keep in account, but when looking at europe versus u.s.

europe is looking more attractive given the fact that the s&p 500 did see a rise of 14% last year. this on top of the 30% gape it saw in 2013. >> absolutely. we'll have the anti-momentum snap back this year. the fed is going to conduct an annual stress test. the banks are regressing dividends and stock buy-backs this year based on how the balance sheets hold up. last year citigroup failed while bank of america scrapped the buy-back plans after underestimating certain risks. joining us is john black, investment researcher. john, thank you for joining us. we'll talk about the stress tests and what to expect today. it's big a big story of stock buy-backs over the last couple of years do. you think the banks will be excluded from that this year? >> i think so. this time around is no different than the last few times around.

they are not going to be able to issue dividends or do stock buy-backs. >> let's talk about the tests themselves because some people have been pretty critical of them. and the results that some banks get when they do their own tests differ a lot from the regulators are. the regulators being fair in the way they carry out the tests? >> well, the thing you need to understand about the stress tests is that the language of adverse and severely adverse is how they are framing the two choices away from the baseline example. what that is confusing is what happens here is the severely adverse test is a low-interest rate environment in a collapsing economy, particularly outside the u.s. whereas the ad verse environment is not just a ship of the adverse environment. it is actually totally different. and somehow it sounds a little odd because it incorporates a

high price around $110 a barrel. 4% inflation and rising interest rates and high interest rates. but the point of the test is to have two very distinct scenarios stressed upon the banks to put the baseline in the center as opposed to one being a shift of the other. what is going on here is the actual adverse test that is going to be most likely to mimic something that would be coming from credit spreads blowing out, the bond market blowing up and interest rates rising which we might see out of the high yield-type blow-up in the oil crisis scenario versus the '08 and '09 adverse scenario playing out. what they have done is very interesting. they kind of said we don't really want to know where things are coming from or how they are composed. we just want to look at a high-rate environment to see how your balance sheet and your assets and your lending deals

with it, or we want to see how you deal with the serious collapse. >> of course legal settlements have weighed on bank earnings the past couple of years. do you think legal settlements or losses could impact this year's bank stress test? >> you know these are the wild cards. they come up to play in a specific case-by-case basis. so obviously we have seen a lot of these earnings estimate revisions from last year wipe out a lot of the forward outlooks. and that can happen again, but it's really based on dividend bank situations and given the litigation. so it is very hard to predict. i wouldn't expect it to be as large as last year. >> john thank you for joining us this morning. john black, from zacks investment research. the banks should take their time in mop monitoring the policy after years of stimulus.

rosengren said this should force the fed to move slowly. >> low inflation means we may be able to be more patient than we have in the past as long as we're experiencing very low inflation there's no reason for the path to be particularly abrupt. >> now checking the bonds, the bond investor has a different take on where markets are headed the year while he expects the fed to start raising rate this is year to cause long-term bond yields to fall given a surprising flattening in the curve. the ten-year treasury could take out the low in 2012. that would especially be the case if crude prices keep falling which would accentuate deflationary prices. dan, happy new year to you. do you think low inflation and the lack of wage growth will that result in the fed delaying the rate hike or slow down the

process of normalizing rates? >> it certainly is going to slow down the process. i don't think it is necessarily going to delay it. i mean,s the pretty clear from listening to the guys both publicly and privately they want to get some rate hike on the book, so to speak. and that is probably going to happen in the third quarter of this year but that's not an important question. the latter point you brought up is the important one, how quickly do they raise rates. in that regard the answer is not very quickly. >> in looking at the global picture. europe is slipping into the deflationary environment. china is not the bright spot we had seen over the past couple of years. does that strengthen the case for u.s. equities going into this year? >> well, sure. listen i don't think there's too many places you can put your money and feel as comfortable as you do right now in the united states. i think that's pretty clear. i think the evaluation argument is one that people bring up but again that's evaluations on the market timing tool. russia has been an extremely

attractive market for several quarters now and investing over there is unrewarding. so yeah the disturbances across the world make the u.s. market more affordable but that's been the case the last few years. >> do you think you have to hedge your positioning somewhat perhaps offset your positioning with some volatility because we are going into the seventh year of the rally. surely it cannot be as simple as it has been so far. >> well, first of all, i totally disagree it's been simple. i talked to my clients, nobody thinks -- if investing was easy a lot more hedge fund managers would be outperforming than they are. and something like 75% to 80% of the active managers wouldn't be underperforming. i disagree it's been easy. it's been volatile. prior to the last two years, it was a tough market environment. going forward, yeah i think it's going to be a more volatile environment. to be sure something we have seen over the last four to six months or so i expect that to

continue. but that is not really saying very much. you're almost surely going to get higher volatility especially with the fed beginning to raise rates. >> yeah, and let's talk about the other factors that could derail this rally. you were just talking about what your clients have been expressing concern over. has greece been a topic given the political uncertainty? >> no. i can probably count on less than one hand the number of greece-led conversations i've had with clients. they have simply been non-existent. that goes to the fact that over the last several years we have become trained to ignore the global disturbances that earlier in the crisis would have led to 5%, 7% declines in the u.s. stock market. that said this is an issue that i think people should be paying attention to. i think to some degree that's obvious, but if you look at the europeanen bond market which is your barometer for whether or

not this matters or not, virtually no other spread or i'm sorry, let me restate that whether it is italy, spain or whomever, the sovereign bond yields relative to german bonds or u.s. treasuries is not blowing out so to speak. they are not widening out to a degree that would say there's a bigger issue here beyond greece's borders that reaches italy or spain. it appears as to if you are a european bond investor you are relatively sane about greece's leaving the euro zone and the impact on the countries in the area. >> dan, what is the main worry keeping you up at night for the global economy in 2015? >> well, i'm under no illusions, i'll relatively optimistic on u.s. stocks for some time but let's be under no illusion here. things don't look good. growth in lot up america is hard to come by growth in china is slowing. europe is on the verm of recession for what seems like 20

years. the world economy is not operating in a perfect matter by any means. and what that says to me and what that says to us is that policy is not correct. i don't know what the right answer is and it certainly differs from region to region but things are not very good. economies around the world are not operating properly and it's a big problem. and hopefully we continue to tread water or get better the way that we have been and not take a turn for the worse, because ultimately if you do take a turn for the worse, the central banks around the world and fiscal authorities are ill-prepared to say the least to combat another downturn. >> yeah dan greenhaus, chief global strategist. thank you for joining us on january 5th to discuss markets. we'll look at the other top stories at this hour. president obama returning to washington from his vacation in hawaii on sunday. but he won't be in town for long. the president is promoting his 2015 agenda with a three-day three-state tour starting on wednesday. he will lay out executive actions and proposals on

education, housing and jobs ahead of the state of the union speech on january 20th. this is a different approach keep in mind as the white house typically waits until right before the speech to disclose what the president is going to be talking about. meanwhile congress returns to work today with the new republican majority taking charge. lawmakers are expected to tackle issues this week including energy and obamacare. the house republicans will move on legislation to jump-start the keystone xl pipeline and the bill to get rid of language in the affordable care act defining a full-time employee of someone working a minimum of 30 hours a week. coming up on "worldwide exchange." money in and money out. investors keep pulling money from the total return fund. and a look at pimco's loss after the short break. how can power consumption in china impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain,

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welcome back. we want to get you up to speed on the oil story because oil is trading at a fresh 5.5-year low. as you can see here brent crude trading below $56 a barrel. citi is slashing its crude oil forecast for 2015 to $63 a barrel from $80 a barrel. the supply/demand equation is one of the reasons oil prices have been on the decline, but

some traders also attributing the move to the weaker euro. weak currency reducing the purchasing power for dollars in nominating oil. so multiple factors here being digested by oil companies. >> in december it created general risk off sentiment and other risky assets all equities were up. the question for 2015 is now we have develop through the initial sell-off, can other risk assets perform if the oil crisis remains weak? now, of course another area of things suffering is pimco closing the books on one of the worst years ever in which it lost both of its chief investment officers. for more on this story, we'll go to cnbc hq where landon dowdy is standing by. >> reporter: the pimco total return fund has had the worst year of redemption ever in the industry. the fund posted the 20th straight month of outflows in

december as investors pulled $19 billion in withdrawals in september, october and november with $27 billion of that just in october. the month after bill cross resigned. the total for 2014 $105 billion versus $41 billion the previous year. the world's biggest bond return fund was once the largest mutual fund is now the fourth biggest behind vanguard that returned a 4.7% last year after missing the rally in long-term bonds and betting inflation went arise. but morningstar says pimco could redeem

redeem redeem this. and the double line total return fund is reporting its 11th straight month of up flows in september. in an interview with beerends published this weekend, he believes the long-term buying yields will fall due to a surprise flattening of the yield curve. gundlach says this would be the case if crude prices keep falling to accentuate deflation. back to you. >> landon thank you for that. now, are you sick and tired of a boring desk top? well this next job could be yours. over 10,000 people around the world applied for the paintball bullet testing job. many applied for the job that pays 40,000 pounds per year or around $60,000. that has us talking here, what

is your dream job in we have heard from a couple of you already just tweeting in to say, one says a dream job is to own a cat cafe. >> does that mean wallpaper or cat food? >> maybe cat food for humans. >> maybe it has food for humans but also for cats. >> we have a more legitimate tweet to say their dream job is to work for nasa. get in touch with us. e-mail@worldwide e-mail@worldwide.com. seema, what is your dream job? >> in reference to the last three, i did go to space camp when i was younger which could be very cool amongst my friends. so there were aspirations to be an astronaut when 5 years old. >> what is your dream job? >> then i quickly figured out it was to be a financial journalist. but i would say if i wasn't a journalist, i would be an entrepreneur. i'm inspired by what happens in silicon valley. i used to live in san francisco.

many of my friends are there building interesting products and things. >> there we go. get in touch with us on twitter on that subject. and to the other top stories, the euro hitting a nine-year low on hopes for further ecb stimulus while oil is under pressure. right now u.s. futures pointing lower after a new start to the new year as investors count down to the fed minutes later this week. and pimco outflows nearly doubled last month slashing total assets in half from the 2013 peak.

wall street coming off a strong year, but right now the u.s. futures on the second trading day of the year pointing to a lower open. the dow jones industrial down 77 points in pre-market trade.

the nasdaq which was just about 5% away from breaking its all-time high is down just about 19 points in pre-market. s&p 500 after gaping 14% last year down 10 points in pre-market trade. we'll bring in michael dourka thank you for joining us. happy new year. given what's happening globally the concerns over russia political uncertainty out of greece, do you think investors will stick to u.s. domestically-oriented names as a way to play the market going forward? >> well, it seems as though the student investors look for opportunities when the markets fall apart, so that will be aplenty as we see how the afore mentioned topics you just said were going to play into the market. but i think the u.s. is really going to take the forefront once again because of the occurrences and not just because of the significance of how strong the dollar has been, but i think globally as we watch a lot of the commodity markets fall

apart. it will be the u.s. stock market, in particular, probably the s&p. the bigger basket that is the ben fish beneficiary. >> at some point this becomes a concern, doesn't it? >> absolutely. for the reasons, i don't think we are anywhere near that yet. the companies are very well run and i think their businesses globally are showing that in some of the strength of exporting now that could be hurt, but as we curtail that we'll look at a chart of the commodity markets. specifically crude oil. i was going back 30 years and looking at the 100-day moving average on the quarterly basis. the last crisis we had resulting in crude oil below 40 that level held very well. and it comes in right now at 47.52. so that clearly for me would be a target. and the violence of that would be really bad for some of these global economies, especially eastern europe but particularly i would watch a level like that

because the selling has been continuous and the volume has been worthy. and for those reasons, the crude complex is still under pressure for at least another three to four weeks. >> michael, thank you very much for joining us this morning. michael gorka there as we come to the end of the show. the broader stoxx 600 market is down .25%. that's all we have time for today on "worldwide exchange." i'll wilfred frost. >> and i'm seema mody. next up, "squawk box, if".

good morning. a world of worry. the euro dropping below 1.20 for the first time in nine years. the big question will the ecb lawn ch another round of qe to boost the eurozone's economy?

crude again crushed a new year but a familiar story. oil prices sinking to 5 1/2-year lows. and bracing for a bitter cold blast. severe weather causing damage to homes, taking out power and disrupt ing disrupting 14 states that are under a winter storm warning. it's monday january 5th 2015. and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross-sorkin. mark zuckerberg is challenging himself to read a new book every week and to focus on new cultures. we'll tell you about the response so far, but his new

book is already out of stock on amazon. joe mentioned the dollar hitting a nine-year high as the euro sinks below $1.20 for the first time since early 2006. among the biggest drivers, there's speculation on more easing from the ecb and worries from greece exiting the ecb. but a lot of the political concerns ahead of the country's general election later this month and tough talk out of germany already. it's the first full trading week