good morning everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross-sorkin. mark zuckerberg is challenging himself to read a new book every week and to focus on new cultures. we'll tell you about the response so far, but his new book is already out of stock on amazon. joe mentioned the dollar hitting a nine-year high as the euro sinks below $1.20 for the first time since early 2006. among the biggest drivers, there's speculation on more easing from the ecb and worries from greece exiting the ecb. but a lot of the political concerns ahead of the country's general election later this month and tough talk out of germany already. it's the first full trading week of 2015 and there's no shortage

of data on the docket. building up to friday's jobs report, today we have december auto sales. tomorrow, it's ism nonmanufacturing and factory orders. wednesday we get the adp. and we'll have international trade and minutes from the last fmoc meeting. and thursday the initial claims and the friday payroll report. how are traders viewing 2015? so far with a slant to rise 8.2% this year. the big drivers they are looking at economic expansion and earnings growth. oil prices dominating the market this morning with wti and brent losing half their value since mid-2014 with prices falling to 5 1/2-year lows this morning. among the headlines, iraq's oil exports were at the highest

level since 1980 last month. also, we can tell you the new congress meets this week and the incoming chairman of the senate commerce and transportation committee says a gas tax is on the table with them not rising since 1993. i don't, joe, drive, but i think 18.4 cents per gallon for unleaded. i think it's 24.4 for diesel. senator john thune says this is to help with and existing shortfall with the existing plan expiring in may. we'll see how that debate unfolds. >> they are arguing on how to do this by state. we'll look at the stocks to watch this morning. shares of cempra get a boost. the oral version of the lead antibiotic leading the main goal in a late stage trial. i was alerted to this by our

interpret pharmaceutical reporter mike huckman on this being a big story today. appreciate that heads-up. and leaders of the american airlines pilots union approved the carrier's contract offer. union members now must vote on it. if approved there will be a retroactive 23% wage hike. and dreamworks animation appointing new co-presidents of feature animation studios chief creative officer is stepping down. >> a check on the markets as we told you what strategists expect this year but that's not the way the futures are headed. right now the dow futures are down by just over 80 points. the s&p futures look to open down 10.5 points. and the nasdaq is down by close to 20 points. you have to believe a lot of that is concern on what's happening in europe right now with greece. if greece might actually end up being let go from the european union. that's something that has been talked about. angela merkel making comments in

suggesting that they might not be too upset with something like that happening and that's causing concern. we'll take a look at what is happening in europe where a lot of this is playing out at this point. right now the european markets are all indicating weaker. greece down by 3.7%. france is off by .80%. the ftse in london down by .70%. and the german dax down by .50%. the nikkei was down a quarter percent. the hang seng down by .50%. and the shanghai is down as well. we'll take a look at where gold is trading this morning. you'll see at this hour it looks like gold is up $4.20. 1,190 down. >> a piece in the journal has it very close in greece. i don't know what it's going to be on the 27th.

but more and more people are starting to sort of spin the cycle that it would not be that disruptive. you saw the draghi piece in "the times." such fundamental problems in parts of europe that they blame now a lot of it on the common currency that has not really worked out in terms of -- it's been a six or seven-year sort of twilight. >> and it's been a stretch for reforms not being put in place, either. you are trying to put the changes in place but the reforms never came about. >> they are too important, not just the jergermans laying around in the sup all day long. they don't want to give them more money. if greece would exit they are never going to switch currencies. lithuania, i don't know what their currency is i forget. they are going to switch.

they are happy but just this tiny -- they want to be wow, we have euros now as part of the trading buck, but the big country like germany, to try to heard off the cats when you don't have a common fiscal authority, it's almost impossible. and then countries that get the austerity from the bureaucrats in brussels and their people spend years trying to live up to the expectations of the bureaucrats, i don't know the whole thing could be a big -- >> angela merkel is suggesting we are in a better position to allow greece to exit. spain has come back a long way. but as you mentioned, you look at italy and some of the situations they still have there was -- did you read the piece over the weekend that suggested, someone was saying this would be lehman brothers squared for the greeks. >> if he's on he's on.

i like the equation that he sent us because he had the term -- i was going to talk about the markets and use some of his concerns. because what went from all these positive things if you look more closely at what a lot of these things mean like the drop in oil prices you look at what that means when you take and connect all the dots or look at what's happening in china, driving by the huge ghost towers and stadiums where no one plays, it's a lot to worry about in the year. >> going from positivity to negativity. we are just starting. >> the beginning of the year don't we get to do that? now we are wondering, what will 2015 bring? because it's weird because it's arbitrary to just put a cutting point on 2014. >> you have to measure it from somewhere. >> given what's happening with the euro below $1.20, oil breaking under $50. >> nine-year low for the euro. i mean things that make you start to wonder and reassessing value. >> and the oil prices too,

there are major parts of the world that were addicted to $100 oil. everything they do is based on that. and it may stay here for a while. we may have broken the back of the opec cartel. >> but you said that's a great thing. >> it is for consumers. but here's what happens, those economies slow down. our dollar gets even stronger. >> i said that a couple months ago and you said who cares about those economies. >> i didn't really say that andrew. and i don't think you said that either. the dollar gets stronger and it's harder to export. sooner or later we import some of this inflation maybe, and the slowdown that so many of these developing countries need. and they were using our qe. and the qe3 ship has sailed. >> you are wearing the tie. >> qe3 and it looks like -- it's sailed. we would never wear this because it has color. yours are like -- do you ever

see your ties, if you ever took a -- the festival and you spray the thing going like that if you spray every single color, that's what comes out. >> i wear -- i wear the classic, this is is a maroon tie. >> it is like a mud. >> i would wear that tie. >> no you wouldn't. let's ring in -- you know the dating fans why dating bengals fans is a good idea? >> why? >> because they never expect to get a ring. the bengals will never win. someone sent that to me on twitter. >> who? >> they want you off the bandwagon. you add mitted you were drawn in to watch it again. >> i left and never came back.

it was just -- it was right to what i knew would happen. >> however, you were rooting for the steelers. >> yeah a little bit. but i was rooting for the steelers to undercut some of the other people that love the steelers. >> and it worked. >> i'm angry at them in the first place. >> and it worked. >> it did. investors have plenty of key data to look at. the fed minutes in the first friday jobs report of 2015. come on, is it time for another jobs report? joining us is lou this morning. and on the economy, we have steven wright global chief strategist at citi private bank. lou, are you just being a guy that thinks absentment and consensus, we are going to do 8.2% in the bag. does that make you nervous every one of these guys never right is coming up with 8.2%?

>> 8.2% on the stock market? >> s&p, yes. >> it's all right. i don't know what you're supposed to do at the beginning of the year. last year i said the market would move 12% and i was right it moved 12%. >> i don't want to listen to the other people then. you tell me what it is going to do this year. >> except that i thought it was going to move 12% lower. >> okay. >> and this year i'm going with 12% again but not going to make a decision on which way until later in the year. maybe december. >> smart. >> but i think that there's -- the litany of things you just went through are very important for the market overall because that sort of sentiment and whether it goes into the bond market or stock market will be determined by a lot of the things you said. and i think the fed and the housing market reacts to the fed is howto be the most important thing for where the s&p ends up this year. my estimate for going down 12%

for the s&p was because i thought that during the taper of the qe that the markets would act as they did when qe ended for both one and two of the strategies. when in other words the s&p went down at the end of qe 1 and 2. and the yields on the ten-year went down when qe ended. so this year when the taper began, the ten-year yield fell from the beginning of the year and continued to fall throughout the end of the year. the s&p after a stumble in the early year had a steady gape but then in mid-september, the day after the fed made it clear that qe was dead and gone after october, the market had a 10% decline or just about a 10% decline in a few weeks. and on october 15th, the s&p was flat on the year. so i think that -- i think that how the market reacts to the fed in con junction with the other things going on is one of the keys. >> steven you have written like

a thesis on the asymetric look of things but this will sum it up. acute negative effects are some, but kind of a widespread event for a lot of other people. >> you can't just look at the net effects being positive for the u.s. economy in isolation and see to ignore the big risk things. we are going to have sovereign debt stress. we are going to have tremendous problems of the marginal producers. this is hair whole life as the oil price. for others we all drive cheaper. we all transport things around but we were okay with $100 oil. it is net stimulus but expect a lot of volatility out of this with a long tail effect from the variety of things in the latter. i'm positive on the u.s. outlook

and the u.s. economy in the current year but i think economists probably underestimated how strong of a positive effect it had. the positive spillover of growth is oil booming in this case. >> purchasing power for americans benefits when the dollar strengthens. but it seems like all multi-nationals get hurt by that. if we have a nine-year high on the dollar and we are still at zero, does that nine-year high anticipate where the yields are going up or does the dollar get stronger as yields go up? >> it has further to go. >> can't that eventually hurt? >> well, eventually it will hurt, but you look at the ranges the u.s. traded regulated dollar fell eight of ten years in the last decade. you look at a lot of relationships in the markets to be extremes. the u.s. ten-year notes four times the level of german ten-year yields.

when you look at currencies and the -- >> we are at low levels. >> but it is a record low spread to germany. these sorts of things actually do matter. surprisingly with as low as the yields are right now. and there are strong inflows from the rest of the world saying, this is not a 2% yield for me. this is a 9% return in my currency. so this is important. what you mentioned about the overseas earnings it is important that we always see the up flows into our marketplace that we see the dollar strengthening drawing investors into the assets they have. that's large cap u.s. equities amazingly attractive around the rest of the world. >> lou, i was thinking 20% with the market this year and not say up or down. but even there you could be wrong if it's not that big as far as magnitude. you have picked the perfect

number because 12 it will probably be one or the other and it will be up or down. i guess you could be wrong if it stays where it is too, right? you are very sly. >> you are a genius. >> do you think even the people that we ask they know we have to give them a number but no one really believes this and it's just -- we all just sort of discount even the sort of whole mechanism of trying to do it on january 5th or something? it is a fool's game isn't it? to say what the market is going to do. >> it always has been for me. and i just -- there's too many variables. you can say, well, these are my best guesses on how the dollar is going to go on how the consumer's going to be et cetera. then you plug it into a spreadsheet and say, oh this is what it's going to be on the year. or you wait to see a general opinion survey and go with that. even a lot of times that is what happens. >> even if someone spotted you, i'll give you what the multiple

will be and you figure out the earnings. or if they give you the earnings and you figure out the multiple you still couldn't do it. okay. what we are seeing today, we had a lot of positive stuff happen in november and december. and january should be interesting because we kind of predicting this could happen. we are down 80 today? >> january should be interesting. the thing that merkel said greece may or may not be in the euro at some point in the future, that's similar to what she said back in late 2011. and that's important since the odds of the euro membership, being as it is in the future the odds of that changing are not zero. that's very important because if one country leaves there could be an advantage to early movers and somebody else may follow. at least there could be the expectation someone follows. >> okay. you guys are -- i'm riding on what you said because it's the

new year you are the first guys predicting. oh, january 2nd we did. but this is the first with all of us together. >> so essentially it didn't happen before. lou, steven, thank you. still to come in this hour we'll get a live report from the midwest where residents are preparing for the arctic blast. strong winter storms expected across the country today. plus, ben white is joining us onset with his stories to watch this year including the early jockeying for the white house. jeb bush will be in greenwich later this week. and this is a sad and strange story, a hedge fund founder killed in his new york city apartment. we'll have the details that when we return in just a moment. e financial noise financial noise

financial noise financial noise

welcome back to "squawk box." we are watching the arctic blast that is underway and we'll go to mike seidel from the weather channel channel. >> reporter: it is cold in international falls with their temperature at 28 below. the windchill 50 below zero. two arctic air masses coming across the canadian u.s. border this week to impact everybody east of the rockies except for florida and the immediate gulf

coast. they won't get as cold as last month. this includes the northeast in a couple days but it is the windchill. you have to layer up wear the hats and gloves and cover the extremities. in the summertime we talk about frying an egg on the sidewalk in midtown manhattan. how about this? i cracked an egg on a piece of paper at 10 below zero there's your frozen egg this morning for breakfast in minneapolis/st. paul. how about that? along with the call, we have a clipper to bring a swath of snow to bring it across iowa and chicago. they get three to four inches tonight and some of the snow will linger to the east coast, new york and philadelphia tomorrow. a little bit there, an inch or less but the bottom line is the next flee three to four days bundle up it is january, after all. >> it took five minutes to freeze to the paper? >> reporter: about five minutes, yes. >> go back in the truck to get

somewhat warm. >> reporter: i'm going to save this for kernan. >> i'm back on eggs in a big way. eggs are the perfect food. >> protein. >> if you can just deal with the -- it's the cholesterol issues. which don't have a problem with but you don't want to create it. >> just eat the egg whites. >> i like the yolk. you don't do hard-boiled, do you? >> i'm on a new kick. almonds and -- not kale but green things. >> what is it january 5th? >> yeah. yep. >> we are all on the bandwagon for a few days. >> "the huffington post" i have to check once in a while, five foods you can't eat if you have a belly. i'm going through -- they don't let you get to it ever. i know how to buy insurance policy and know how to buy a ford escort. i click -- i don't know what to

click on and never found it. i never found the five foods that you're not allowed to eat. >> i can imagine. >> they are bread, pasta. >> alcohol is not good. >> alcohol is not good. candy. anything white. >> chocolate can be good because it is a healthy fat. >> it can be but only dark chocolate. if the weather has you stuck inside mark zuckerberg suggests you read a book. move over oprah's book club. the facebook founder is creating a year-end book page encouraging friends to read a book every week in to 20 15. he's focusing on learning different cultures. his first book is "the end in power." the title first published in 2013. and it was out of stock on amazon yesterday. how did you like that pronounce

area? >> i give you credit. i would just say the name of the book. >> you're right, you would have. you're on your own finding the author. 2016 and the race for the white house kicking into high gear. everyone is talking about the potential for another bush versus clinton election. so what can we expect from the economic platforms in the two frontrunners? ben white is here happy new year. >> happy new year to you. >> we mentioned in the tease that jeb bush is coming up north if the weather doesn't get to him first. he's coming to greenwich. >> the homeland of the bush clan. >> then clinton is doing a little work in the midwest this week. >> yes. the potential for a match-up is there, although jeb bush will have a lot harder time getting the republican nomination than hillary clinton will in getting the democratic. >> the wall street journal which

you pick up this morning says iowa democratic leaders are troubled by the prospect hillary clinton could win the state's 2016 presidential caucus without a serious challenge. they are desiring a more liberal candidate or a more robust debate. even though the wisdom is she's it, there seems to be a sense people want somebody else instead. >> i think as far as independents go they think it's -- i think they are worried it is more of the same with obama's policies. if she moves left she's in a real tough spot. >> he'll have to move left. >> but i think independents think she's too liberal and the democratic base think she's too wall street. >> that's very true. the iowa thing is -- she had trouble in iowa the last time around and they like to see a contest. they would like to see elizabeth warren or something in the caucuses to make it a real debate. >> and they want a debate or a different candidate? >> i think it is mainly because they want a debate. and i think they want her to be held accountable on wall street reform issues her ties to wall street on her economic platform

whether it is progressive enough, more taxes on the rich, that sort of thing. they want to hear that kind of discussion and maybe nudge her on some of the issues. adding ultimately they and the rest of the democratic party view her as the strongest candidate. >> does she move left? >> i don't think she's going to move significantly left. in rhetoric she will and she has to some degree. >> but she gets in trouble every time. when you start talking about those things and assuming it is only going to play in iowa -- >> it will turn some people off. but i think in terms of her policies, i wouldn't expect to see a very hard left progressive tax policy or wall street reform policy. she'll talk the talk but not going to come out to say i'm going to raise marginal tax rates on the rich by 10% or do a number of things to increase scrutiny on the banks. i don't think the policy platforms move that left. keep your eye on the general election. >> so now we're talking republicans for a second? >> really quickly. at this point, eight years ago did anybody see obama at that point? >> they didn't. this is the classic line on

okay clinton is not the de facto nominee because somebody could come out of the woodwork like obama did. he was the rising star in illinois, but there's no one else on the democratic side other than warren. i don't think it is a hard no. she's a very ambitious politician and she'll see a window here. i think if there continues to be stories like this about the iowa democrats really wanting somebody else in the race and people start coming to her with a harder draft movement it will be hard for her to absolutely positively stay out of the race. she probably won't run, but i would give it a 10% to 15% chance yet. >> the republicans, jeb bush comes to greenwich this week. chris christie was at the cowboys game last night. >> he loves the cowboys. >> if it is just a match-up between those two, is it a slam dunk for jeb bush? >> not slam dunk but he has the advantage. he doesn't have any baggage, not

as a cowboy fan, but other things that chris christie brings to the table, the snuff from new jersey that has troubled him from the years. jeb has issues with his last name, but as far as a national candidate with the name recognition, the money a lot of the policy proposals, i think to the establishment of the republican party, jeb bush is more attractive than chris christie. >> the articles have been written more recently that the people that don't like him because of common core and immigration, that even those people could get behind him because they are sick of what we have seen in terms of the laws on either side stalling. if we can get -- we need to get a guy elected for the republicans before we can do anything. and that's the same trap they have fallen into a couple times in the past that the conservatives point to. if you run another bush it will be like romney or mccain or something. but the articles are now being written that they can even

swallow some of the things -- >> immigration will be an issue for him in the primaries. his policies on normalization of -- >> did you see the piece on -- written by the guy that formulated the strategy with jeb, and he said that when you say he's just an -- that's not true. he wants to enforce the rule of law first and foremost but then there's the compassionate side -- >> finding a way to deal with the people here who nobody thinks we are sending back and we are not sending back. i think he can move the republicans on immigration. some will never support his position. common core is more for the general public. it's for conservative republicans who don't like the state of the federal role of education, but he can explain to people how to compete with the chinese. we need the standards that our kids need to meet. i think he can sell republicans on those two things but won't derail him. >> who is the dark horse for the republican party 2016? you're lizsaying elizabeth warren

for the democrats. >> i think the people we don't talk about are kasich or scott walker. one of those people will catch fire to some degree. and they will be competitive in the republican primary process. you'll see state of the state addresses coming up soon where some of them will put forward ideas to catch fire. so i think maybe if we're looking for somebody we are not talking about a lot now but a midwesterner governor. >> the possibilities are there. >> huckabee is possible. >> he won't be president. >> that's not very nice to say. >> do you think he should have just kept the job? >> he had that option. he's talking about running and doing something politically. but he's got a nice business going of selling books and if he runs and doesn't win, he could go back to fox and do a number of things. some of the folks are in it for their --

>> have you ever used a dog as a stool to reach something on a higher shelf? you haven't done that have you? don't do that. sarah palin, one of her children, i guess on a home video, was trying to reach that -- a little kid, the dog didn't even budge. didn't flinch. but peta is going nuts! nuts that the little kid did that. >> i missed that. >> you missed that too? >> it was not in the morning money report. >> this is supposed to be a complete -- it is about sarah palin! how can you miss that? >> ben, great to see you. you keep talking amongst yourselves. when we come back we will talk about a hedge fund owner found slain in his new york city apartment. and check this out with the

euro falling for the first time in nine years. and coming up we have last week's winners and losers.

welcome back to "squawk box, if" a hem if." we have breaking news with a hedge fund founder found dead in

his apartment yesterday afternoon. >> his wife made the discovery, called 911. and police at this hour continue to question his son, thomas gilbert jr. thomas gilbert sr. a founder of wayne scott capital partners found shot once in the head. he was found by the wife and called 911. the new york city police who responded to the scene, that was a shot of the wife being taken away very distraught. she left without comment. and the father a graduate of princeton university, the son also apparently went there. the friends we have spoken with said he has become increasingly volatile in recent years but at this hour has not been charged and police are not yet calling this a murder as the gun was found near the father's body. so they need to try to rule out suicide before any charges can be filed in this case.

so the investigation continues. as of now the son is in custody being questioned but not considered under arrest. no charges filed at this hour. >> and i assume we'll hear more about this in the next couple of days. or even in the next day. do we think, there was no struggle or no view that it was a struggle either it was a suicide or something much worse? >> investigators say homicide is the leading theory at this hour but anything is possible. they interviewed neighbors who tell police they heard some sort of loud noise, a big thump, a big bang around the time of the shooting. then the son was seen leaving the apartment building with a hoodie pulled up over his head. that according to the doorman who worked at the building. but again, as of now, the son has not been charged. >> who owned the gun, do you know, john? >> we don't know. we know that it was a .40

caliber weapon, a pretty powerful weapon. but we don't know who it was registered to, if anyone. >> okay. >> tragic story again. thomas gilbert sr. described as a loving husband, a really decent guy. very well-thought of in the apartment building and also in the business community. and the son, who is very popular or was during his high school and college years, and then was described to us by one very close friend of the family that has become volatile and had issues in vept yearrecent years. but again, it is unclear to know if he's to blame for what took place in the apartment. police continue to question him at this hour. >> john thank you for that. of course we'll be looking forward to hearing more on this. >> have you heard the name before? >> i have not heard it before. >> it was a new hedge fund that opened a few years ago. i don't know how much he had in it. he was also a harvard business graduate. >> okay. >> a tough story.

we'll talk a little bit about what's been happening in the markets. we have been watching the euro fall to a nine-year low against the dollar coming amid speculation that the european central bank is moving closer to large scale bond purchases. the question is will the eurozone economy face another tumultuous year? i think the answer is probably almost certainly yes. but joining us to talk more about it is mark grant, managing director at southwest securities. i have to get your predictions for the year, but first the situation in europe. how bad of an issue would it be if the greeks would exit the euro? >> it would be difficult not only in terms of contagen but the germans say, well, the bonds, the greek bonds aren't owned by the banks in europe anymore, which is true. however, what they don't tell you is that the ma joejority of the greek debt is held by the ecb and other banks in europe. so there would be significant fallout if they defaulted. >> the front page of the

financial times this morning is saying that massive qe wouldn't be enough to revive the eurozone according to many economists. do you think that's the case too? >> i agree with that statement. the reason is that most of the borrowing in europe is done on the five-year and not the ten-year. so they look at the sector more than we do but the five-year sovereign debts are either negative with germany right at zero or right off zero in terms of the netherlands, france austria. so the effect of the quantitative easing would be glenlgable glenlgable negligible. >> rates are pretty low. hey, we're going to drive down rates and spur economic activity. do you think that they will let draghi -- if you were the ecb, would you want to buy the bonds of these countries that aren't going to be able to pay you

pack? >> probably not. i haven't lost my mind yet. >> if you were german and they were saying you have to pay for the crappy bonds, how is he going to do it? better not to do it since it wouldn't help anyway but they are just between a rock and a hard place. >> i agree with you, joe. my thought at this point is that the ecb is out of bullets. they don't have anywhere to go. they are facing deflation. i think you are seeing inflation inflationary numbers across the board in january. and i think europe is -- a rock and a hard place to minimize. >> before oil they were facing deflation. >> then with russia we said germany was the first to get hit. now italy is warning that it has been hit by russia too. so you add all that up i think the answer has to be an overwhelming yes. this is a difficult year for the continent. >> difficult may be a mild statement. >> so mark you probably don't

think five years out, but the whole euro experiment success in the future at some point? or not? >> i think probably not, joe. i think there are too many warring tribes if you want to look at it that way, that are in opposition to each other. you just have different mindsets in italy, spain, as compared to germany. >> crazy idea. people that didn't switch are going to look smart, i think. >> mark before you go i want to talk to you about what you expect on the ten-year in the united states this year. you were right last year and called it early that the yields will be under pressure. that was counter to what everyone was saying at that point. now we've got a new year and everyone is saying once again that yields have to go up this year. you don't necessarily think that's the case. >> not necessarily, becky. i do not at all think that's the case. i laid out a formula in a piece that you've gotten i think the

ten-year goes back to 2% and heads down three quarters probably to 150. and i laid out the reasons why in the formula. it has to do with relative value versus the sovereign debt in europe and asia. but a significant drop in the price of oil. and i don't think the fed is going to do anything right away. the fed is going to get balked in one day. and one day in the spring, they are going to say things are so bad we are not going to do anything about it. >> mark you were right last year, we'll see what happens this year. thank you very much for joining us this morning. we'll talk to you again soon. >> thank you becky. coming up record-setting numbers from amazon. details next. but first heading to break, here's a look back at this day in history. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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2014 was a good year to have your products on amazon. amazon sellers sold a record-setting 2 billion items. the internet bohemuth introducing an amazon seller app to help the companies with their businesses. coming up the young and successful. i look at you. >> i appreciate it. keep looking. >> from the court to the silver screen, this is you. from wall street to silicon valley the showtown and publishing. forbes unveils -- >> oh under 30. i just missed that by 7 years. >> 30 under 30, next.

welcome back to "squawk box." forbes kicking off the new year with its fourth annual 30 under 30 list. excuse me. we were saying things during the commercial break we shouldn't be saying. a who's who of the next crop of entrepreneurs and innovators. gracing the cover this year is palmer lucky, the founder of

oculus. he sold last year netting over $5 million. with us now to go through the list is managing editor at forbes. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> was he through the clear winner? do we do this in a rank order? >> no. and it's more like the 600 under 30 in we have 30 people in 30 different industries. it's the day forbes breaks the internet. it's a great cross section of just industry by industry and amazing judges whether it's czarsara blakely and other people that are superstars. $500 million is now a facebook stock booming. he's close to $600 million at 22. the way we figure nobody's ever been that young with that much money. not even zuck or bill gates.

when you think about what he accomplished at his age, it's amazing. >> we have a list here showing on the screen here. of everybody on the list if you want to make a bet of who we would hear about the most who could become the next mark zuckerberg, if you will -- >> the next mark zuckerberg. we've got a guy named austin mcchord. he turned down a hundred -- he owned 100% of this thing and he turned down $100 million offer to buy it. he does data backups so if something like hurricane sandy happens and you're a speedy trading operation, he can get you back up in seconds. which is very desired. instead he went out and raised about 40 million bucks. somewhere between 20 and $40 million to try to do it himself. but he turned down a hundred million bucks.

that will be fun to watch. >> i'm also looking at this list. i assume this is an accolade of bill ackman. rian israel. will he go off and start his own fund after being put on your list? how does this worth? >> he said he knew more about warren buffett. he was one of the key guys on the burger king deal. this is somebody who again in that industry in private equity hedge fund it takes awhile to get running. here's somebody at 29 is already a goldman vet and ackman thinks is quite the comer. >> and tell the about these women who started the skim. >> a million people are now reading the skim. these are two "today" show colleagues who say -- >> nbc people. >> -- we want to do something

that speaks to our generation, have a point of view. so they do basically a news letter that skims the news. and if that sounds simple they went out and raised about 6 million bucks recently to go blow this thing out. they've organically in the last year or so taken this to a million readers every day. >> randall, we appreciate you coming on. always good to see you. congratulations on the issue. look forward to seeing you for the next big list. >> always good. >> thanks. when we come back this morning, the good the bad, and the ugly. we'll talk stocks. the euro dropping below 1.20 when "squawk box" comes right back.

u.s. stocks coming off a year of gains, but take warning.

dom chu joins us with a big cautious signal for the markets. the euro sliding to a nine-year low against the dollar. we'll tell you how far the euro could fall by february. and it's been a year since colorado said it's okay to toke up recreationally. >> i just want to say that was a great idea! >> a peek at cnbc's new documentary about the cannabis boom. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning again, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are watching the euro this morning. it is hitting a nine-year low versus the dollar. the euro has dropped nearly 14% since march.

it's picked up very recently though. picked up with that speed in decline. forecasters are now looking at a greater chance of quantitative easing package for the european meeting. also watching the greek elections on january 25th. a victory by a popular far left party could put the bailout in jeopardy. that's a concern this morning and that's why you're looking at the euro at 1.19. also in our headlines, it is jobs week. among the key economic events leading to friday, we're getting the adp payroll report, also minutes from the last fed meeting. jobless claims then on friday. the government's employment report. also the new congress convening this week. seeing a gas tax on the table. they have not risen since 1993. senator john thune saying all options must be looked at.

and then the final "hobbit" movie taking the top spot at the box office for the third straight week. you both saw it? >> we did. >> brought in nearly $22 million in north american ticket sales. disney's film version of the broadway musical "into the woods" was second with $19 million. i've not seen that yet. >> have you seen it? >> no. >> i'm interested in it. >> meryl streep? >> yeah. looks good. just haven't gotten there yet. we should tell you there's a warning light out there for the markets. dom chu sounding the alarm for the growing level of debt. this is a big story. >> it's one of the big ones. to help kick off 2015 we here at cnbc are releasing a new and improved online offering called cnbc pro. meant for real market junkies. among the stories you'll look at the margin you were saying. that's borrowing money to buy stocks. the data released by the new york stock exchange every month. as you can see in the chart here, the amount of money people

are borrowing to buy stock has reached a peak-like level. we're at the highest level ever, but that's to be expected as the market gets bigger over the years. but now we're at the highest level of margin debt relative to the economy since 1929. we all know what happened there. you can see these circles here around the internet bubble. before the financial crisis. and here we are right now on the far right-hand side of the screen. experts are divided on how important an indicator this really is. one thing it might indicate is when stocks fall in value, that downdraft to the downside again could be more volatile. now, investing editor piece is up on cnbc.com and for a limited time there is a free trial of the cnbc pro product. you can check it out. the full story for margin debt online there. back over to you guys. >> any thoughts as to what leads to that? people just get more interested in making sure they buy, they're

more interested eded in buying more because they think they're sure things or something? >> it's not just that. the reason why there's a debate about whether or not this is important is margin debt is not an unhealthy thing. it could signify a longer bull run. these types of things these type of margin buying situations could go over years. this is not to say that this is going to crash any time soon. it's more of a flashing yellow instead of red light about whether people think there's a peak level out there. that's why this is important. it's not so much we're going to see everything crashing down now. it's just one of those indicators that in confluence with other things could indicate we may be due for -- >> but it's another one of those indicators of an economy or sentiment that's getting pretty bullish. but we're still at zero which is classic with all these things

that maybe wage pressure started to build up and unemployment is down. margin debt is at a high. and the fed's still at zero. now i'm starting to think they're in a box because now they can't raise. it's not the box they have to stay low. it's now with the rest of the world staying at zero they're going to continue to get screwed for the next year or two. >> that's been the knock on the zero interest rate policy ever since it got put into place. the people with disadvantages are the ones on the older end of the wage spectrum. yes, there's a tradeoff for all of this stuff here. but what this is mostly is just at least an indicator people want to watch to say whether or not their things are going wrong. this is not to say they are, joe. >> well a lot of reasons why it would be nice to have some dry powder next time there's an economic slowdown and not be at

zero. and you also worry about so much money moving into areas where maybe it shouldn't be. . where in more prudent times it wouldn't be in emerging markets or whatever. >> but that's whether or not you learned the lessons the last time to keep that dry powder. >> we don't have any right now. and there's a slowdown. i'm worried, dom. i'm very very very worried. >> i've been worried. but i've been worried for six years now. >> by 8:00 i'll probably be fine. probably be bullish by 8:00. >> yeah. stick around right? >> yeah. doesn't really matter. >> dom, thank you. that's really interesting. more on the markets now. we're joined by joe quinlan and jim paulsen. you know paulsen, we'll get to you in a second joe, but last

time you were on your thesis was all the good news was pretty well telegraphed and maybe in the market. maybe we're set to ring a little of the complacency out of it. >> i kind of think we're going to be at a broad trading range this year joe. we could go a little higher. but i think we also are going to see some lower levels as the year progresses. kind of digesting the big moves we've made over the last three years. you know it's interesting, we've got this sense we had this big move in 2014 but as we sit here this morning we're probably 50 points away from the level we were at in the summer. and it wouldn't take much of a decline to be flat since last summer if you will. and i think that's kind of what we'll revisit this year. you know i do think -- i'm not as worried about this current deflationary fear everyone has. and worried about whether the ecb's going to do quantitative

easing or not. i think it's already been done. i think we've had a massive stimulus applied to the economy. it's the equivalent of a massive fiscal tax cut and equivalent of a massive quantitative easing program that's already been done throughout europe. look how much bond yield sovereign yields have fallen over the last year. i think with the lag we're going to see a pickup in growth not only here in the united states. but across the globe. that might be good for europe and japan, but i think here with the unemployment rate falling close to full employment, i think it's going to put the fed and bond vigilantes in a box in a hurry. >> that's good. i'm glad you're saying that. >> maybe. >> well i was going to say long-term you stayed bullish. i was going to give you all the things mark just talked about to not be bullish and see whether you change them. you're still saying any sideways action we have in 2015 isn't because of the fundamentals have deteriorated. they're still good.

>> that's right. >> what about you, joe? >> i agree with that joe. but i am concerned as we start the year. europe's a huge drag. china's probably growing by 5% not really 6.5% or 7%. there's an adjustment there. so i agree with jim. the oil price cut is a huge tax relief for a lot of the global consumers. it's going to take six months for that show up. europe a is huge economy. they've got to get moving. we've been saying that for six years. here we are in 2015 saying the same thing. >> you differ with jim on that then. he says you know i mean what's qe going to do? the germans need to drop down the yield on their bonds? >> the eurozone is a surplus region of the world. they need to spend more. how they spend it that depends. but they're really taking demand away from the global economy as putting more demand in.

>> but that's not something the central bank there can be right? their only option is a qe bond buying program. >> they can do more with the infrastructure spending the service industry is terribly fragmented. it's behind the curve. it's really -- there's a lot of regulation that could be broken open to bring out some more growth there. >> those are changes we were expecting over the last six years. right? we thought we were buying time to get the changes through. they didn't really follow through on any of it. >> not at all. here we are 2015 we're still having the same debate we had in 2010. >> is your number 8% to 10% for the s&p positive this year? or is that where you are? >> we are there, joe, in a sense. i do think the u.s. equities are underowned by foreigners. i think at least in the first half of this year you'll see them moving into equityiesequities. >> so what would you put your money on if you had to?

>> flat. >> flat. zero. yeah? >> i think we might see over 2200 2250 this year. we might also see 1850 joe. i think the market's caught in the united states between two opposing forces. we've got much better growth here in the united states. i think we're doing 3.5% this year up to 4% in growth. the broadest growth and recovery. but we are also near full employment. and are very close to setting off inflationary indicators which i think is going to be problematic for the markets. we may melt up on better growth and bond vigilantes. >> anybody that's been worried about that has been wrong. you know, that's like still way up there. and everybody's working part-time. nobody can get a better-baying job. you act like there's no slack left. that's sort of an outlier

opinion, isn't it? >> i think it is. i think it is. i think we've been worried about slow growth so long that when you head towards 5% unemployment you're creating 2250,000e inging 250,000 jobs a month and you've got net worth over $80 trillion in households 20% higher than the previous peak. isms for manufacturing and service sector are back. bank lendings up almost 8% annual rate. this is an economy which has shifted from 2% stall speed to 3.5% growth probably. but the difference is we're no longer at 8% unemployment. we're closing on it. i think we go into this year with a deflationary spiral fear in the air, but i think we're going to have inflationary concerns before the year is out. >> jim, when is the last time you predicted a flat to down year? >> i haven't been bearish at all in this recovery.

i think even in pullbacks previously i just felt the market was so cheap and sentiment was so bad that it wasn't worth worrying about it. they wouldn't last. but we now have a more -- we have a market that's now at 18 times earnings sentiment is the calmest and most confident it's ever been. and we have to do one thing. we have to reconnect interest rates in the united states to the economic cycle. we can no longer have interest rates priced on fear of 0% interest rates 2% 10-years. >> you're calling for correction this year but you're calling longer term over the next two to three years for higher stock prices. we have people watching this program this morning thinking they missed the bus before and wondering should i get in should i wait for the paulsen correction to happen.

if the stock market is going to be up in two or three years anyway. i should just forget about even trying to time it. >> i would not try to time this much. where are you going to go? bonds or cash? i'd say overweight. but what i would do is i would minimize my exposure to the united states stock market. i'd go overseas. i like europe. i like japan. i like the emerging world. sfl sfl >> jim as an enigma you're a herbal socialist basically. i don't know whether you do that thing, whether you whip yourself for being a bad guy and a good guy. but have you come to the realization that a paralyzed government is what we need since that's what delivered this rosy

scenario. are you finally willing to admit that government is not the answer? maybe a paralyzed gridlock situation is better? >> as an investor joe, i have no problem with gridlock. i think in some steps our founding fathers set that up by creating a crazy thing 550 people have a agree on something. >> and happy days are here again. >> washington has to do -- >> i think people have worried far too long about what government will do or won't do when what they should be focused on is main street. >> and joe, everybody complains we didn't have an energy policy a federal government energy policy. seems like somebody had an energy policy. >> yeah. we did. it was called the private sector. the wildcatters in oklahoma an montana. we changed the world. we can grow without the government. but long-term we need a

functioning washington. we need that to kick in. that could be the outlier in 2015. >> oh, no. another kennedy democrat. quinlan, another -- you are, aren't you? >> not really. >> sound like one to me. all right. thank you, joe quinlan and jim paulsen. >> there you have it. when we return we have the growing population of vaping. poised to take off. king rogers has the topic. and a sneak peek at the marijuana documentary one year after the legalization of recreational marijuana in colorado. and then we'll talk about the precipitous slide in the euro. how much farther could it fall by the end of this month and what does it mean? stick around. we'll tell you about it in just a moment.

welcome back to "squawk box," everything. we've been watching the futures this morning and they have been under some pressure. the dow futures look like they would open down about 80 points this morning with the nasdaq down by about 20 points. we've also been keeping an eye on shared of cempra after an oral version of its leading antibiotic meeting the main goal in a trial. stock up 30%. oxford dictionary's word of the year is vape.

as in vaporizers allowing marijuana and nicotine users to discreetly consume. >> vaping is kind of this family friendly legal cousin to marijuana with ties to that growing industry, but it's also taking on a life of its own. the electronic cigarette and personal vaping industry which allows users to inhale vapor from tobacco, marijuana, and non-nicotine based juices is poised to hit $3.5 billion in the year to come. 2014 was also a big year for vaping. oxford dictionary coneined vape as the word of the year. now, users say it not only helped them quit smoking but it's a way to socialize. >> i'm bringing more and more friends into it. yeah. we sometimes just get together and, you know have a glass of wine and vape. and it's fun and it doesn't smell and it doesn't make you --

>> and with flavors like honey, gummy bear and more even non-smokers are getting in the mix. it's now less about quitting and more about community. >> most people start using them to quit smoking. but then the experience of vaping has grown into this whole kind of social aspect of things. so after, you know -- maybe after they have totally kicked their smoking habit, they've met cool people here. >> but those nicotine-based juices may be off the market in 2015 pending fda regulations that may require brands to apply for approval. the fda says this shrink the market from thousands of products to as low as 20. >> so we were just talking before we got here about what vaping is how it works. you said it smells pretty good in the shop.

>> it's basically battery operated devices that have a cartridge on them with a juice. and it heats it up and turns it into vapor. you inhale and exhale it. a lot of flavors do smell great. >> why don't they smell them as an air freshener instead of in your lungs. >> so it's a gateway. and we don't know if it's better than cigarettes. >> there's studies on both side. and the fda only studies e cigs for -- >> how do i know the difference of e-cigarettes being sold at stores by the cigarette companies? >> they're the same. but the fda regularlations could take them out of it. >> before you're addicted to nicotine maybe you think you look cool when you smoke. but there's long been maybe a freudian component to being fix

sate fixated in the oral stage. >> and it gives you something to hold. it can satisfy that craving. people who are trying to quit say. >> i don't know if i buy all that. do you buy all that stuff? do you have dreams about washington monument? >> no. >> tunnels, trains? >> no. >> your mother anything? >> no. coming up -- no? >> no. nightmares about you. >> that's good. nothing's going on is there? nothing that there's anything wrong with that. uber's new year's numbers. the ride sharing service releasing stats from a demanding night. and then the euro hitting a nine-year low. how the ecb and elections in greece could drive it even lower. "squawk box" will be right back.

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when we come back this morning, it has been a year since colorado legalized recreational marijuana. we have a sneak peek at a new cnbc documentary showing the unexpected profits and pitfalls from the pot market. stick around. we'll be back.

e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

welcome back to "squawk

box," everybody. in our headlines this morning, the u.s. consumer regulators reportedly writing new rules for payday loans. "the wall street journal" says the goal is to make the money easier to repay. vanguard is reporting a record $216 billion in inflows last year. that data is the last sign they're shunning funds for indexes that charge a lot less money. mark zuckerberg is creating a year ends books page and is urging friends to read a book every other week in 2015. and uber ringing in the new year with a spike in users. the car sharing service says it provided 2 million rides on new year's eve and new year's day. the smartphone app was downloaded more than 20,000 times in the few few hours of 2015. demand for rides in most places peaked from 1:00 to 2:00 a.m. paris, france demand peaking after 4:00 a.m. and the hub blowing up on

social media. i saw this between christie and jerry jones last night. christie watching dallas beat the detroit lions 24 to 20 in the ffc wild card game. people might say, wait a minute you were at the knicks game. how did you see that? because i was behind where all the reporters were watching it. and all the tv screens were on and i was able to watch live the knicks and i did see that weird hug. >> i didn't see it. >> and i also watched the simpsons. >> somebody e-mailed me afterwards saying chris christie blew a chance he had. this is coming from a broncos fan. >> twitter was alive. i had my phone like this and it started almost burned up. saying what was that. >> you know what? but chris christie if he wants to be -- you know and he

doesn't worry how it looks. i think that's -- for me that's a benefit. it is. >> picking teams makes it tough if you want to be a national politician. >> you should pick a team opposed to well i'm kind of a white sox fan i'm kind of a cubs fan. >> you talking about hillary now? that's much worse. >> apparently he's been a fan. >> what does he do in the awkwardness of the moment. he gives a high five and nobody gives it back. >> andrew's only question does he pay for his own flight down there was your other question. >> that's an interesting -- >> and ticket. >> -- question. >> well the ticket i'm sure he could go as a guest of jerry jones. >> i don't know about that. >> really? >> i don't know what the rules are. >> okay. harry smith is here. we are very happy he's at the table. >> can't keep my mouth shut. >> we're thrilled to have him here. he's here to talk about all things, but one of the main reasons he's here is because it

has been a year since colorado became the first state to legalize recreational use of marijuana. tonight on cnbc he's got a take at a look at some profits and pitfalls surrounding the green rush in a new documentary he's been working on "marijuana country: the cannabis boom." here's a look at it. >> dr. edward ma runs the epilepsy center at denver health hospital. he's been studying the effect of charlotte's web on kids with drava syndrome. >> it's one of the newest things. when we think about anti-seizure drugs and the drug development pipeline, this is one of the things that has very very exciting promise. >> but he cautions its overall effectiveness needs more study. research shows charlotte's web reducing seizures in less than a third of the children using it. >> the impact size is not as

large as perhaps was being touted in parts of the media. 20% to 30% are having a dramatic reduction and it tails off from there. >> usually we see you across the way. >> happy to be here. >> becky can ask the question. you were asking a question -- >> what is charlotte's web? >> it's a strain of marijuana that's high of cbds. that's the mystery part that they think has some actual healing prots versus tch which is the stuff that is psychoactive, you know that this guy takes most mornings. and so there is this very specific strain. there are more than 200 family who is have moved from across the country just to get to colorado just so they can get this for their very, very sick kids. >> a mistake maybe. if you're saying of a third of the benefit. >> most of these meds because all these kids end up on these. they load them with poisons and

they get less and less able to fight uf what they're trying to fight off. one in three is about average for different kinds of meds they might prescribe. >> what is the tch content? >> it's almost zero. and what's interesting is some kids do a little better if there's a little bit of thc. so it's kind of an interesting balance. >> the kids that are hyperactive, who know how this stuff works. >> there's no question. to me one of the things that's most interesting, this schedule one drug forever and ever we don't know anything about it. the research is just now starting to happen. and they say there are actually resenters in the brain that are there for millennia that are clued into some of the properties of marijuana. you know when our hands were dragging on the ground maybe people were smoking this stuff.

>> but it could be something else that -- >> of course. >> we did a segment before you came on about vaping. >> yeah. huge. >> and is it safer to vape marijuana than it is to smoke it? >> of course it is. >> that's clear? >> it's just like an e-cigarette. >> and do we believe that e-cigarettes become gateway drugs, if you will to smoking cigarettes and pot? >> who knows about that? you talk to a bunch of different people talk to them about addiction and say marijuana is absolutely a gateway drug. saying absolutely it's not. we talked to veterans out there who say you know what? as opposed to all the opioids and all this other crap that the va is prescribing for me why don't you let me smoke a little weed? the whole -- every time i go out there and i come back and feel

like i'm watching a genie come out of a bottle. it is so interesting. >> in a bad or good way? i have to admit sitting here i've been a little concerned about saying i don't want my kids getting into stuff like this. i'm concerned about the legalization spreading. are your views? >> this is already there. what colorado does is it opens the curtain and all of a sudden this thing that's been there forever is out of the closet. that's why we're so interested. >> you spent time there. what do you think it's done to the culture, to the crime rates, to all of the issues people are worried about? >> everybody said this sky is falling. crime is going to go up. serious crime is actually down in denver. everybody's going to drive stoned and kill each other. actually highway deaths are down this year in colorado. so all that kind of anecdotal stuff, there's no way to know because there's not enough data. >> they do now -- you know ding

dongs and twinkies under lock and key in convenience stores now. that's where the theft was occurring. and doritos. it's like i know what i'm talking about, don't i? >> did your brain go all the way back to the '70s? >> i remember the '70s which i shouldn't. >> vaguely. >> we're talking boulder in mid-'70s. when they legalized it i was like wait it wasn't legal? >> here's what's interesting about it. you've had two states that have sued the state of colorado because they're saying colorado is a pot exporter. we have the attorney general of the state talking about we know that significant amounts of pot are -- i said to what you are the new mexico. he said yeah kind of. >> if you had to look at the net positives and -- >> cost benefit analysis. >> how many people dies of dwi.

and then you look at boardwalk empire and what that spawned when you tried to outlaw it and all these things come into play with this discussion. >> and i think that's whaun one of the interesting things about this documentary tonight at 9:00 eastern. there are so many unintended consequences. hickenlooper, the governor out there, is a smart guy. they're handed this. he's handed this by the voters. legislature never got their hands on it. handed this by the voters and all of a sudden we have to implement it. it's a gigantic crazy experiment. let's legalize it. just wow. big stuff zplp we'll check it out. >> thank you very much. 9:00 p.m. come on back. i want to know about all the business guys cleaning up from this. >> i have stories. you want a real quick one? >> yeah. >> mark twain says picks and shovels and if there's a gold rush. we've got a guy in the story tonight who makes extraction

machines in the middle of a farm field in ohio. he cannot make them fast enough. >> for the vape. >> no. to get the raw material out of the -- to get the oils out of the raw material. >> harry smith. the documentary 9:00 p.m. you do not want to miss it. when we come back two big slides at the end of 2014. the price of crude and the euro. our trading block breaking down the move. we're talking about that when "squawk box" returns.

this is happening just one week after competitor u.p.s. did the same thing. so what's this mean for online shoppers and online shippers? or own morgan brennan is here with the lowdown. >> hey, andrew. now that the holidays are out of the way, it's all about the new rates. u.p.s. hiked its rates 4.9%. and today fedex is doing the same. but here's where it's interesting. dimensional pricing. they are now charging by size as well weight. that's on all ground shipments. that's the big change to focus on. directly targeted e-retailers with packages that take a lot of

space to ship. a 17 inch square box weighing three pounds will be billed close to if it was 30 pounds before. this means more revenue. but u.p.s. and fedex have been working with their customers in laboratories to pack more efficiently. and the big upside here creating more space on trucks and planes for even more goods. but consumers are going to see the shipping bills increase. and this is also why you may see some of your packages from amazon ebay others come through the u.s. postal service instead. while u.p.s. and fedex are hiking prices, the usps has been slashing prices to attract more e-commerce business. >> morgan thank you so much. i always wonder. you get those boxes from amazon that's something this big with a box this big. >> exactly. you see toilet paper sent out in big boxes but doesn't way much.

now it may cot most to ship that than buy that toil it paper online. let's get to the first trading block of 2015. this nine year low against the dollar with the euro. joining us now on where question expect the dollar and the oil to trade in the year ahead is becky lien. welcome to both of you. kathy, why don't we talk about what's happened with the dollar. what we've heard from people already today is this is just the beginning. the euro could face significantly more pressure as we get a little closer to that january 22nd meeting coming up. >> you're right. i think the real question to ask right now is why would you want to own euros? an environment where there's weak growth quantitative easing is coming and there's a risk of upset. so i think investors are starting to realize that and as

a result they're pressing the gas on the euro slide and there's a very real possibility we could see a minimum of 1.15 by the end of this year. >> 1.15 by the end of this year. so that's something you're expecting more pressure. that's what we heard from analysts last year. >> right. and we're starting to move in that direction. i think the monetary divergence story is really going to be the main headline of 2015. many people have talked about it. i think you're just beginning to see corporations and private sector flows move in that direction. you're probably going to see more hedging as we -- as the euro continues to fall. i think that's really going to exacerbate the slide. even spectators look at the positioning. not at the same levels they were in november of last year. so there is more room to the downside. >> do you expect the federal reserve to raise rates this year? >> absolutely. i think it's a given in terms of when -- in terms of their rate hike. i wouldn't be surprised if they raise by 50 basis points. so the market's certainly looking forward to that.

>> if they don't, we had one analyst earlier this morning who said he does not expect them to raise rates this year. if they don't, would that change your guess about where the dollar's headed? >> i think if that were not to happen it would not be realized until the middle of the fourth quarter of this year. between now and then there's still a lot of uncertainty for the eurozone. we have more coming down the pipeline from europe and japan. that's only one side of the story. the other side of the tour is still going to push for dollar gains. >> ken were five-year low for oil prices today. what's happening? what happens from here? >> good morning, becky and happy new year. from here we're probably getting closer and close tore that point where six months from now we'll turn around and say that's when it changed. two things are going on behind the scenes. one is that rigs are slowing here in north america. and the second is that demand though sleepy is going to wake up. eventually people buy more and travel more although apparently

based on the previous segment, they may not be using as much logistics for oil. in any case where we are going from here is january is a weak month for demand. so this is not a particularly good time to try to pick the bottom. but it may be near the point where we will start to see signs. most importantly if we start to see this production in north america really is slowing down then the first signs of that can start to show up january, early february. then you might have a different conversation in three months. >> you say it's not a great time to pick a bottom but sounds like you are. >> no no. i'm hedging. i'm picking a near the bottom. which is saying nobody can be sure and the history has always beaten the analyst if you look at the record. >> but when does -- you know here's what i think. or here's what just listening to everyone we have on kevin, they all say it's only a matter of time before we snap back and go to a more realistic level. and just that mind-set one of

these days it could be where, you know it doesn't return to 90 in three months like it did the last three or four times this happened. what could -- give me your average price -- give me the range for the average price next five years for oil. >> the next five years, the futures take it above $80. and could be anywhere between $70 and $100. but for this year between $70 and $80 is probably as high as you'd want to go. the real reason is inventories have to burn off before anything can change. >> what if it's $40 to $60 for the next five years. something you're not even admitting the possibility of and no one is. >> i don't think it's likely. >> that's what i mean. >> we're going to use it to grow. >> we all have opinions. but we'll see. >> all right. kevin, kathy, thank you both for joining us this morning. talk to you soon. when we come back this morning, driverless cars on display around the consumer electronics show in las vegas. phil lebeau is there and he's taking a test drive.

>> referee: hands-free and foot-free. what's it like to drive the california highways? not really driving the car. a test drive of awwudi's concept car. coming up on "squawk box." why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with efficiency? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well-equipped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details.

car companies showing off their self-driving cars. we keep talking about this phil. we must be getting to the point where we've got to take it seriously. >> you should take it seriously because the technology is here. yesterday we had a chance as we were driving from san francisco to here in bakersfield in this car. this is the audi a-7 pilot driving concept car. yes, when i got behind the wheel, i was driving hands free. we're on the highway just outside of palo alto california. the vehicle has let me know that it's okay for it to take control. i press these two buttons right here, an l.e.d. strip on the front dash board as well as the instrument panel lets me know

that the piloted driving technology is in control of the car. and that's it. now we are hands free foot free. i'm not controlling the acceleration or the braking of this vehicle. as we're driving down the highway towards san francisco, if there is a car that slows down in front of us and we need to lane change there are 20 sensors in this vehicle that are measuring the other vehicles on the road. if it's safe to make a lane change, it will do so. now, this technology only works on the highway. when you need to exit the highway or you need to slow down and go into street traffic, the vehicle will tell us. now, we're turning right now. i'm not controlling the vehicle at all. but in about a half a mile or so it's going to tell me that our next exit is coming up here and it's time for me to take control of the vehicle which is basically pressing two buttons. 15 seconds until it deactivates. i press these two buttons right here.

lets me know that i'm now in manual driving and i'm taking control. in fact, i'm going to lane change here. do it the old fashioned way looking out the back window to make sure it's time to get off at our exit here. so the number one question i got all day long when i was tweeting out that we were driving hands free from san francisco down here to bakersfield, what does it feel like? i have to tell you it's very intuitive and natural. it's like the next extension of cruise control where you set it and you sit there. and the car is literally moving in and out of traffic as it needs to as you're going down the highway. we were coming down i-5 coming down here. we're going to be driving this a-7 live on cnbc hands free a little later this morning on "squak on the street" and "power lunch." it'll be interesting to see how it goes about today in terms of reaction we get from other people who see us driving. because when people pass you and see you're driving hands free there's a bit of a double take. >> wait a second.

how do they know you're driefing hands free. are you driving down the road like this just to scare everybody around you? >> i can't see you, becky, but if you're waving while going down the road -- >> can the car do this as night or in the dark? you look like it's dark outside where you are right now. >> it can do it at night although we should point out that this test drive and we were licensed by the state of california to be part of this test drive, it's doing it during the day. now, they have tesd it at night. they eventually will offer this at night. there are some areas, though where it won't be able to happen. a couple of those areas, if it's snowing or raining. because that hurts the sensors. >> you looked a little nervous, i have to say. you looked nervous. >> phil you probably get nervous with cruise control all the time. i've got so many more important

things to do instead of driving? i don't have anything to do. i can't read. i get car sick. i'd rather have it just tell me if i'm changing lanes into an 18 wheeler. i'd rather have it stop me from doing than rather than just being in control. >> i don't know joe. very natural. once you're behind the wheel of this, you're very comfortable saying okay. the car knows what's going on. >> all right. >> phil thank you. we'll be watching that live test drive later this morning too. see ya. when we come back this morning, the euro plunging to nine-year lows. how much lower could it go? we've got that story coming up.

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predictions for 2015. what would a greek euro exit mean for the global markets? is a proxy fight brewing at coke and pepsi? and can investors expect to pay higher bank fees? we'll discuss that issue and others that matter most to your money in the new year. plus which investor should you listen to? unveiling the latest list of who's who on wall street. and we'll introduce you to the next self-made icon. he's the creator of fresco.

he will be our very special guest as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and becky quick. a swath of arctic air going across the nation. we'll see some snow. the fast-moving storm already prompted warnings and other winter advisories. check your flights if you plan on flying today or tomorrow. in new england temperatures are not expected to get above zero. it's january. there's snow. stop the presses. let's get you up to speed on some of the other top stories this hour. the euro sinking below $1.20 since early 2006. among the biggest speculation,

worries about greece. more in just a minute on that story. and crude and the supply gut. and calls for the s&p to rise 8.2% this year. that's the average prediction by research firm bernini associates. i always -- >> i have a supply gut. that's actually a glut that we're talking about here. >> it say gut or glut? go back. >> does it matter what it said? you know it's a supply glut right? >> i was thinking -- >> all right. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. futures off to the lowest levels of the morning. dow right now down 66 points. s&p indicated down about nine

points. and this is coming after red arrows started off the session in europe. in france the cac is off by 1%. ftse down by .7%. a lot of this coming about what's been happening in europe. and along that theme, concerns over the health of the eurozone are resurfacing. michelle caruso carrera is here with more. >> the radical left is still ahead. 25th is the election. let's tell people why you're talking about this. over the weekend there was an article in a german magazine that they say if greece leaves the euro not a big deal. why are they talking about that right now? why would they plant that story right now? because there is an election in greece three weeks from now. the guy in e the lead this guy

alexi alexi sampras. he's not nostalgic for the former soviet union. but very much would be against all of the things you talk about in modern capitalism. what makes him different compared to all the other antiestablishment people rising through france and people in the uk is he says he does not want to leave the euro. however, all of the things that he says have to be put in place to stay in the euro make his participation in the euro unattenable in the eyes of the rest of europe. >> would like to stay in the euro but would like you all to keep paying for it. >> exactly. he wants a huge forgiveness of loans and things that are not going to fly. and so now he's basically setting up if he wins and it's not for sure, he's only leading by three percentage points. he used to lead by more than

that. if he wins he's setting up a showdown with the rest of the european union about what they're going give greece to get them to stay. that's why you see the greek 10-year falling and all the yields falling relative to germany holds -- greek yields are rising sharply while people are worried about this. practically speaking the germans are right. the greeks no longer have the power to blow up the balance sheets of the banks. that was the whole debt exchange they did. they told all the banks you're not getting paid and then greece was loaded up with debt from the rest of the european countries. so greece still owes a lot of money. but now it's to german taxpayers. right? who want to load them up with more taxes essentially to forgive their loans. that's certain will i aly a possibility. >> if greece leaves who is

next? i know ireland's in better shape than they had been. >> i'm not sure anybody is next. maybe cypress but they need to be part of the you're row and -- >> you think it might work out that way sfp. >> that greece would leave? absolutely. >> i think i read it could be a lehman square moment if they would leave. >> personally i don't believe that. because train wrecks that you can see far in advance are not -- >> you can get out of. >> exactly. i don't think it's going to be up to the greek government. when will we know that greece is going to lee the euro when we see bank runs. when the population says this is coming. remember, a currency that is not backed by anything like gold is a deeply psychological thing. and in theory if you look at latin america in the '80s compared to now, you'd say greece should have left the euro a long time ago. but they stayed. that's one thing to keep in mind as we talk about this.

it's not going to be some grand macro decision. it's going to be the people on the ground. an economic conference takes place today. steve leisman joins us with the highlights. >> thanks. this is the biggest economy conference of the world. the united states economy is on better footing than others around the world but there are serious concerns about asia and about europe and whether quantitative easing would even work in europe. that comment, becky, about lehman square greece leaving, that came out of this meeting. it was a comment by barry ikengreen. and eric rosengren said the federal reserve needs to tread carefully at raising rates this year. >> low inflation means that we may be able to be a little bit more patient than we've been in

the past as long as we're experiencing low inflation there's no reason for the path to be particularly abrupt. >> former economic -- former bush economic adviser glen hubbard says the u.s. has a lot of scope for improvement including things like tax reform. but said looking around the world, the u.s. is the leader of the pack here. >> we have had an uneven global recovery, to be sure. despite the sometimes sour attitudes in this country, the u.s. continues to dominate industrial economy success. even with the downside risks faced by the american economy over the next year it's still likely to be the relative winner of the party. >> bob gordon of northwestern university, he's sticking to his idea of this secular stagnation that because of low popularity we're doomed to 2% growth and low interest rates for a long time to come. but he got a lot of pushback here with u.s. growth rates

recently hitting that 5% mark on the euro. a lot of skepticism from guys like marty feldstein who says with interest rates already low over there, he has his doubts about whether draghi's potential qe would have any positive effects like it did here in the u.s. back to you. >> can i ask you one question? is there a historical relationship between the 10-year and fed funds? what should we -- can we multiply it to get it where it snoub the reason i'm asking if they start going up and the 10-year according to some people if yields still drop because of what's happening in europe would it look weird if it keeps responding and the 10-year doesn't respond, does it have to respond? >> it should respond. alan greenspan said they were trying to raise rates but the 10-year didn't respond. so the control of the fed over the 10-year is once that's

always been suspect. you can imagine if the market thinks the fed is making a mistake and raising interest rates prematurely, it can come down to reflect the lower inflation. >> it's not just that though. >> however, the balance sheet and the ability to use qe the fed may exercise more control over the long end if it gets into a serious situation. i think it would be a last resort. >> but we had people who pointed out earlier today that hadn't thought about it when you compare it to the german bund when you compare what you're getting on it it looks good particularly if they're facing one much stronger. >> could they do qt? >> what's qt? >> quantitative tightening. could they sell bond? >> absolutely. that's why in our fed survey which you make a lot of fun of which is fair enough but we look at the balance sheet. that's going to be another instrument. you're going to have your

interest rates out there. and there's this $4 trillion kind of hammer that hangs over the market that the fed can decide to clamp down if it wants to. i don't think it's going to push against the 10-year right now. i think they would be happy to have a subdued 10-year while it raises just a little bit. larry summers has an interesting idea here by the time the next session rolls around they will not have enough arrows in its quiver to cut rates the way it can. we're getting back to the zero lower gain in the next three years. >> all right. >> thanks, steve. we'll see you soon. reuters is out with predictions for the year ahead. 2015's theme is animal spirits and crisis. rob cox is joining us. it's great to see you this morning. >> great to be here. >> explain that. what are the crisis ghosts and animal spirits. >> you see stock markets around the world are up.

you've got m&a at near-record levels. a lot of industries are still dealing with the aftereffects of the 2008 financial crisis. primarily banking. right? so we're seeing a lot of -- that is still a theme we're seeing throughout all the economies that we look at around the world. and that is actually driving some of the things we see that are going to happen in the coming year. >> such as what? >> well activism is going to be a big one. it keeps -- it's the gift that keeps on giving for all of us but it's going to get really interesting. a lot of the lower hanging fruit has been kind of picked right? so as these guys get out there with these really good performances from the past couple of years, lots of noun put to work they're going to struggle to find -- you can't just come in and take another restaurant company and tell them to put more salt in the water. right? you're going to have to do other things. some of the things we think might happen are particularly big banks. one of our predictions is citigroup, jpmorgan, may see a

cage rattling. >> become a target. >> and in the past this has been difficult. you're not just dealing with shareholders and boards you've got regulators. but right now any move to simplify big financial -- >> you put citi at the top of that list? or jpmorgan? zblild put citi at the top of the list. there's quite a lot of talk about jpmorgan. it's going better than a lot of competitors, but there is an opportunity to simplify the bank. >> bank of america in that category? >> you could. i'm not saying break up into -- one of the arguments is break it into four pieces. but you could simplify a bank like citigroup and say mexico is a distraction, spin it off. your overseas retail business is a distraction. you're not making enough money on your u.s. retail branches. sell them. you've got regulators index. but right now anything to simplify would be welcome.

>> we were talking about ibm who was the worst performer in the dow this year. do you think they become a target of axis? >> yes. again, it's not like you just walk in and say break it up and do this. one of the problems with ibm is it's been a financial engineering play for the past 20 years. it's returned $23 billion, $10 billion of that is buybacks. that's not a good return. if you look at their business, they need to reinvest in the business. >> so they say they are in the middle of a turnaround and we're going to see it in 2015-16. do you believe that? >> no i don't actually believe that. unless they strange strategy. they've got $10 billion in buybacks or something scheduled for this year. we calculated. if you instead of buying back the stock, you invest that in cap-x, you would have a higher return. something like 12%. >> what would you want them to buy? >> there are any number of

companies. i wouldn't say they spend all of it on m&a. we both know as you've written many times that m&a doesn't always meet the cost of capital. but you can invest in the business. they have something like a 22% return on capital. >> rob thank you so much for coming in today. we have a lot of things we're going to be covering in 2015. look forward to talking to you about more of them. >> see ya. when we return is it time to add some chips and salsa to your portfolio? or is this the year that burgers and fries will be the big one? the restaurant trade. and a look at the best and worst analysts in 2014. a teenager who turned down a job at apple to start his own company and our first dose of cramer. what's ahead in the money man's forecast for the new year? we're going to ask him. back in a moment.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. the nation's automakers reporting monthly sales today. chrysler, december sales up 20%. that was weaker than the 25% analysts expected. biggest sellers, jeeps and

pickup trucks. the restaurant sector trailed the broader market last year but there were a few fast casual names that topped the trend. chipotle topped up 30%. while buffalo wild wings jumped more than 20%. here now is an analyst that thinks this could be the best year for the sector in a decade. bob darington. because of gas prices bob? >> it's a combination of a lot of things. yeah that's one of the contributing factors. when you look back at the domestic economy, the wealth effective consumers. the jobs growth all these things really kind of set the stage. and then ultimately when you have low gas prices it contributes to that. >> so which sector of this group are you talking about mainly? will it be -- you looking at a monolith or you sit down at an applebee's or a drive-thru?

which will do best? >> historically the better performers in the group has been the fast casual brands. and i think as we look out to 2015, the names that we think are going to have especially good years likely will be panera bread. we think they're going to have strong same-store sales growth. we think buffalo wild is set up for strong trends in 2015. and we also like red robin. they think that company is positioned on a valuation basis to be a strong stock price performer. >> seeing improvements in the labor market which probably will usher in higher average pay for the entire group whether it's states doing minimum wage. whether the president is successful. is that a head wind and for which part of the industry? >> to be fair, it's a head wind for the entire sector. whether it's casual dining, fast food, or fast casual. they'll probably all see pressures there.

the key thing that we really watch are same store sales trends. without those you're not going to be able to face those head winds. but i think a combination of both better same store sales, lower commodity prices for a lot of these prices could more than offset that. >> in the past i've thought that shareholders and, you know the corporations themselves have done pretty well in recent years. we've all talked about the wealth disparity. let's say the president was successful and we went to a higher level federally, would it hurt profit margins or would it hurt hiring? would it hurt the people that it -- in other words, would it hurt the people intended to help? would fewer people get more jobs or would it just hurt the shareholders of the restaurant chain? >> you make a good point. what i would say is every restaurant brand whether they want to admit it or not are looking at ways theo try to be

more efficient. in other words using more labor hours to operate their businesses. and there's a lot of ways they can do that. both in the front of the restaurant and in ethe back of the restaurant. broadly my view is that fast food chains will probably benefit more from a minimum wage lift because that puts more dollars in the lower income strata that ultimately use fast food restaurants more. >> we've had a couple of negative -- we had a taco bell close in springfield. the closest one. >> friendly's closed by us. >> was that a day of mourning for you? >> it sort of was. and also in ft. lee. i think a taco bell there closed. what's happening there? is it economychipotle? can it be stopped? >> you know to be fair chipotle is a juggernaut. no question about that. and i think the key thing people are getting is the fresher,

better quality, less processed food. it's really resonating with consumers. i think that's a trend across the board. >> bob, thank you. appreciate it. up next a hedge fund founder fatally shot in his new york apartment on sunday. his son may have pulled the trigger. we'll have the details after the break. "squawk box" is coming right back. hi. pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options.

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm kate kelly with some tragic developing news from overnight that a hedge fund manager tom gilbert who ran wayne scott capital partners was shot dead at his home in manhattan. gilbert was pronounced dead at the scene by paramedics sunday afternoon when they arrived at his apartment. he had been shot in the head. gilbert who was 70 years old was suspected to have been shot by his 30-year-old son tom gilbert jr. according to media reports from late yesterday and today. the nypd confirms this morning and gilbert's son has been take sboon into custody overnight. but it's yet to be ruled a homicide. wayne scott was founded in 2011 by gilbert. company officials at wayne scott did not respond to request for comment on his passing so far. more details as we get them.

>> all right. thank you. we'll be listening, watching. still to come breaking new ground. you'll meet a 19-year-old tech whiz kid who's gotten the attention of apple and peter thiel. the reason those folks and a host of media companies think his site could be a game changer for the news business. but up next the best and worst analysts. that's the same guy. here to name names. "squawk box" will be right back. as we head to break, look at u.s. equity futures. yes! so no set up fees! wooh! yeah! so i get help from rollover consultants? wooh! yes! no rollover hassle. great. woah oh, we're spiking things, robbie. for all the confidence you need. that's

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welcome back to "squawk box." in our headlines this morning, johnson and johnson buying a license option from isis pharma. shares of cempra are getting a huge jump this morning after an oral version of their lead antibiotic met the main goal in late stage trials. and ford downgrade to neutral for buy. >> and isis. sticking with the name. sticking with it. they had it first. we're going to stick with it. we're going to get through this period. it's rough. been rough. >> how to pay for that? >> al qaeda pharmaceuticals. i don't know. isis. change it. >> or sell it.

we're going to take a hard turn i don't know left or right, who were the best and worst analysts of 2014. tip ranks is designed to help retail investors make better decisions figuring out which analysts are worst listing to. here is the cofounder of the list. and also eliot spitzer, the former new york state governor and attorney general. we had you guys on earlier in the year. we wanted you to come back to tell us what happened now yao been doing the rankings. tell us the best and worst of it. >> i'd like to take a few seconds to explain how we determine who is the best and worst. some of them incorporate factors like their compensation, where their work for, and how kind they are. we only measure the performance of the stock they recommend. they're only as good as their call at tip ranks. what we did was look at every

stock that they rated, we have 30,000 buy and sell ratings this year. another 15,000 hold neutral ratings that we were agnostic to. and every time an analyst committed to buy a stock, we bought it and then closed the position three months after the position was open. so we found -- let's start by general numbers. we found out just following any analyst you would have made 1.12% every quarter which is less than the s&p that did about 3% every quarter. if you followed the top 100 analysts, you would have made 6.98% every quarter which is almost 30% a year. and about 18% above the s&p. and if you followed the top 50 analysts you would have made 7.5%. i'm talking about those that were ranked highest in 2013. >> that you measured. >> if you started looking towards the top 100 january 1st 2014, these were your results.

>> you should do the top ii rated. >> i had gave a speech at an annual awards dinner once and said hate to say it you wouldn't do as an investor if you followed these guys' recommended. >> you said that at their dinner. >> oh, yeah. i had tomatoes thrown at me. i also said it's nice to put faces to the e-mails at that dinner. >> that's funny. >> it was. and what tip ranks has done is create the metric for transparency in the market so investors can use hard numbers. >> are there any matches? any matches between what's on an ii list or any of the other lists and your list? >> there were no matches. >> is there any reason to think that past perfect is indicative of future results? >> there were a lot of academic research on that. and we found out there is some

correlation with the top 50 -- >> guys are actually good some of them? that's a new idea for me. >> they have to become our new guests. >> that's what we want people to be able to do. to see who's good and who isn't. so the folks you have here who tip ranks says are worth following. but also investors to get the hard analytical data. this is a market-based answer to the questions we discuss. >> i worry it's going to be hisenburg. >> you study it and change it and it comes back. this is why banks are investing with us. why a lot of platforms want to get us on their sites is you can find those correlation ifs you're smart about it. >> and if we want to go to your site, we pay to be on your site? >> well it's a premium model. you get a lot of information for free. >> what's the stuff you pay for? >> if you want to see the analyzed information. if you want to see what are the

best performing analysts are saying. the most recommended stocks. >> go to the wall. let's tell us who the top five. >> so the top five number one is ph.d. from green capital called jonathan nashrof. and his quarterly returns with for did. >> was does he cover? >> health care. you'll see a lot of health care in the best and worst. >> you could rank sectorially. the metrics can be measured precisely to this. >> if we want access to that research, for example, they go through your site to get access to your research or get access separately? >> they have to get access separately. we're only publishing the bottom line. if it's a sell and price target. >> is there anything these guys had in common? did they come from small banks

typically? big banks? >> that's a good question. we noticed two interesting things about the top five list. first of all, there were no tier one banks in that list. which we did see on the best performing recommendations. but we didn't see them on the leadership board for the best analysts. the second thing we found is all the five analysts on this list except for the last one were on our top 50 list of 2013. and the last one was ranked number 183 out of almost 4,000. which puts him still in the top. >> you also rate bloggers. and we have viewers who look at blogs. which were -- you have this winter you would have made 239%? >> yeah. so if you look at the best bloggers the interesting thing we found is all the top five came from seeking. even though it's 20% of the information we take from bloggers -- >> bloggers and the stocks

they're recommending? >> exactly. we use machine learning technologies to understand. with analysts they have a structured language and set of terminology, buy sell hold et cetera. with bloggers there are no rules or grammar issues. they can be sarcastic and it's more difficult to determine how they perform. >> how do these guy dos it? recently we have discussions about guys that do a lot of leg work and was it inside work? it was and it wasn't. are these guys pushing the envelope on whether they have the ability to -- if he finds out you're going to be -- >> we're not exposing him to everything. >> i wouldn't even tell him half of this stuff. >> the short answer is we don't know. our job is to measure -- >> oh now you don't care. now you're not running for anything. >> i'll be on the phone in seconds. guarantee you. >> while you're here i want to

ask. this was this appellate decision on insider trading. did the government overstep in that case? or do you think -- >> it's not possible. >> or do you think it's considered too narrowly? >> i'm not going to pass judgment on the particular case. but here's what i'll say. it's time for a statutory definition of insider trading. back when i was in law school this issue of tipper and tippee liability. >> are you defining it narrowly in the way that the appellate judges would have? >> i think they may have been a little too narrow. but i think that the lack of clarity -- and you'll agree with me on this. all the cases i made we proved an actual lie by the person whom we prosecuted. tipper tippee liability there's an area of ambiguity. that's not good. we need certainty and clarity so people know what the rules are. >> do you think they are getting a statute? >> no. right now congress won't do it. >> if you're a prosecutor you

don't want a statute. >> no no. i always believed we did want clarity. i as a prosecutor didn't want to take advantage of ambiguity. i wanted certainty. i always said to the community define the lines and play by that line. it's simple. we don't need regulars or uncertainty. just establish a bright line and live by it. >> okay there. you have it. eliot spitzer, uri, thanks for coming in. >> thank you. up next we'll introduce you to a teenager who turned down a job at apple and is now running a social media site being called the instagram for news. he's getting a lot of attention from bigtime pc firms and media companies. all of this before he turns 20 years old. we have his story after the break.

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♪ well move over getty images. there's a new kid on the block. we mean new kid. this is a 19-year-old who founded fresco news. fresco is a photo sharing app that's dubbed the instagram of news. the start-up actually licenses its photos from amateur photographers at the center of breaking news events. already fresco is on the radar of major media companies. john meyer joins us ceo of

fresco. great to have you. >> thank you. it's amazing to be here. >> i love so many things about your story. but tell us a little bit about how you got into this how it all started. . >> it's ridiculous. i got into apps way back in 2008. i grew up incredibly inspired by steve jobs. >> how old were you in 2008? >> 13 i believe. >> wow. >> and it just kept going and going and going. >> and you started building apps like crazy? >> yeah. i built like 40 in high school. i get to nyu and get the idea for fresco news. >> before that you had the flash light app, right? which we've all used. but now it's built in. were you upset when apple built it in? >> i'm not. i loved the brief success i had for the first few years. it was a ton of fun. >> so tell me you loved steve jobs. you followed everything you did. and yet you turned down a job at apple. >> yeah. the reason why i turned down apple was because i was already

working on fresco news for six months or so. i was so passionate about saying i cannot be at a low level position at this time in my life. no matter what company it is. and i really believe what i'm doing could potentially have a pretty large impact on the global news industry and hopefully society in general. >> let's talk about what fresco is. >> we started out as sort of this instagram for news app where you can browse your news through images in a neat way. and we realized that licensing images are super expensive. so we worked on some internal tools to be able to source verify, license breaking news video from twitter, facebook and vine. to the point where we are living in an age now where there are half a billion tweets posted every day. the second anything happens, let's say, in downtown manhattan a protest starts taking place. you have a dozen people within 10 or 20 seconds posting photos

and videos of that on twitter, facebook, and vine for video. so we'll detect those images and videos within a minute or so. and there's tools for that already. then we'll go beyond that and verify that it's legitimate and then distribute that content to our news partners. let's say like "the wall street journal" or -- >> if i take a picture of a news event, do you then tweet me or send an e-mail say i want to represent -- you basically want to represent me the same way getty images might buy an image. >> yes. an individual will ask can "the wall street journal" use this photo. you click a link, hit approve. and that's it. >> i don't negotiate with you over price. >> not yet. that's something that we're working on now. but we've seen over 98% of everyone we reach out to gives it to us for free. >> if i have the ray rice video and tmz is calling or you're

calling, i want to give to the highest payer. >> it's not just you posting. one of those people will get -- >> do they get a photo credit? >> they do. that's probably the biggest reason they give it to us for free. they get their credit on their television screen or newspaper. and in our trials we'll ask, why did you give it to us? we hear as an individual they always say, i really felt the need to get my content out there. i thought it could potentially make a bit of an impact. >> you're 19 years old. you wanted to meet us because you've seen "squawk box" before. am i right? >> i've been watching "squawk box" for about two years now. >> two years and you're 19. you have noticed that media in general, cable news even now movies, people your age and for the next -- i don't know what is it? 12 to 30 are doing things differently that make it hard for us to know who's watching or how to reach certain people.

do you have an answer for cable news an how to get young people to watch their -- >> i definitely do think a lot of it comes from incorporating more media in your reporting. if it's a newspaper like "the wall street journal" -- >> oh, no. social media? >> not just that but photos and video. people don't want to read full text articles at all. you're into invigorating photos of videos of the ferguson protests, for example. that's what we need right now. that's what i see in relationship with these companies that a lot of them are going towards. >> john you're on entrepreneur. you're a young entrepreneur. we always think that everyone's young and there's so many young entrepreneurs out there. there's a story in "the wall street journal" here that says young entrepreneur under 30 years old has reached an all-time low. only 3.6% of households headed by younger than 30 have a stake. what do you think is happening? do you think that the young

people are less risk takers? i thought young people were more risk friendly than they used to be. aprntly the numbers say i'm wrong. >> and it's an interesting point to bring up. i think what we've seen is that in the past if u years it's become so incredibly competitive in the start-up space that a lot of young people are taking the time to -- let's say you didn't go through college or go to a facebook internship before they founded a start-up. a lot of other young people i know that are my entrepreneur friends are doing that exact thing. because it is very quite risky. especially if you don't have a grasp on your end vision and you're not super passionate about it yet. it all comes down to passion. >> do you worry there's a bubble in the new media media companies? >> i don't think so. i think we're at the cusp of a tremendous increase in these, not even a bubble. because -- i mean for example, with us we see that camera tech in our smartphones are getting incredible over the next few

years. we'll be at a point within five years where an iphone camera is on par with an slr that a professional uses. i think a lot of it is going to be about how do you take a smartphone and technology in our pockets or even in our wrists this year and, you know, help out media with that. >> john what's your end game? what do you want to do eventually? >> we want to create a public perception of self-reporting being something you can do. >> but do you do that as an independent company? do you take that public? do you plan on selling eventually to another company? >> if it comes to the case where it's clear that a company like news corp. or like yahoo! or news corp can acquire us, that is something we're open to. but we're building a platform that helps news agencies frely and we're even building a mobile app that will let users submit directly from us. >> do you write your own code?

>> yes. i'm a programmer turned entrepreneur. i taught myself objective c when i was 13 going into high school. >> we all between that. objective what? >> objective c. sdl >> how about ruby on rails. >> i'm not into that that much. >> what is he running? >> it's a programming language. it's what i do after the show. i program. you look very clean, but you got the hipster -- >> i keep a nice stub he willsce did stubble. >> you're amaze. >> we're impressed. thank you. when we return jim cramer's 2015 wall street outlook. we'll catch up with him.

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us. crude is down now another buck. we're like $50.85. could we start with a 4 handle soon? >> yeah yeah i think it's realistic. we're not cutting back production enough. and it's demand side. when you look at what is happening with europe what is happening with china, there is no place to put this stuff. venezuela is next to be able to cut out for imports in this country. and the issue is if the export oil, where is that going on go. so i think it's realistic that if can go longer. >> are you worried about a --

>> i'm not worried about anything. one state will get hurt texas. we know governor christie of texas -- oh,. sorry. that's right p it's a different -- >> yeah different state. probably not huge for an eagles fan. >> yeah. i've just -- it slipped my mind. because who was in the box? was it -- it wasn't the guy who forgot the two different cabinet members. i don't know. a little disturbing. >> so should we be worried in terms of the equity market about greece? >> no. honestly, i think it could be a positive. i think it just puts more pressure on germany to be able to say -- germany is like willing to let greece go. it puts more pressure on them to do more quantitative easing. but unless we get construct allstructural

re230r78re reform in europe, i don't think we care. >> looking forward to spending a lot of time with you in 2015. see in you a couple minutes. still to come, why richard branson almost quit on virgin galactic. [container door opening] ♪ what makes it an suv is what you can get into it. ♪ [container door closing] what makes it an nx is what you can get out of it. ♪ introducing the first-ever lexus nx turbo and hybrid. once you go beyond utility there's no going back.

a cargo ship sitting high and nearly dry. is this a car carrying ship that went aground near south hampton. all 24 crew members were rescued safely. the ship's ocean said it was grounded intentionally to keep it from cap sizing. is this a nearly 57,000 ton ship. it has 1400 cars on board. and sir richard branson putting no regrets on his postings. this coming after october's fatal breakup of the spaceship reflecting on his decision to continue with space travel he said a single visit to california's port confirmed he needed to pursue the project in his own words, he points to the designers, builders and engineers and the pilots and the whole community who still believe truly opening space and

making it accessible and safe is of vital importance to all our futures. >> check out the futures. things have taken a turn for the worse. dow futures are down by over 120. s&p 500 off by 15. check it out with "squawk on the street". we'll see you tomorrow. ♪ welcome to "squawk on the street". we are live from the new york stock exchange. carl is off today. it's our first day of 2015 in terms of reporting on these markets. let's give you a look at those markets. in fact we're looking down as you can see. crude oil, yeah it's still going down. in fact i think we hit a new low this morning. a new recent low on wti. you can see it