i am brian sullivan. we have breaking news to get to from the fed. >> the release of the details of the last fed meeting. let's get to steve liesman. what exactly are we looking at here with the fed minutes? >> the fed minutes for the december meeting that we are waiting for. what we can say is that the fed is saying that it could begin rate hikes at the current level of core inflation. this is new information that 1.4 peace cor 1.4%. they first would need confidence that inflation is going to move back to the 2% target level but they are waiting to do it now at the current level. just hold on before you think the fed is hiking rates. many see global weakness as the key u.s. risk out there. there is also contingent that see upside risk to the economy from better job growth, better gdp numbers and effects of low oil prices.

however those are seen as temporary. let me go through details about what the fed is saying about the story. in general they are seen as positive for the economy. it will be a boost to consumer spending but there is concern that lower oil prices could reduce inflation expectations and result in a slow down in drilling activity and hence capital spending. they talked a lot about the use of the word patience. here is what they say it means. they say it lets them be more flexible about raising rates. it does mean that rates are unlikely for the next couple of meetings, exactly what fed chair janet yellen said. some did object. your hawks objected to it because it relies on calendar-based guidance. the fed did see improvement in the labor market and still sees considerable slack out there. if you don't mind i would like to pivot to talk about some of the better economic news out there. maybe you remember we have been reporting estimates for the

fourth quarter growth that was seen as a big drop down. you did the 5% in the third quarter so we are only going to do two. now we are running above 3%. let me show you the cnbc rapid update running at 3.2% after a big trade miss, i guess i want to call it. it was 39 billion. there is the range, 2.5% to 4.2%. deutsche bank is at 4.2%. barclays and moodies at 3.5%. goldman at 2.5%. the big trade data showing impact of lower oil prices down. the adp number coming in strong and the hiring number 18% of small business owner s respondig to the survey are hiring. i want to show you one thing you will love this chart. this is a rapidly shrinking oil

trade balance. there is the 0 line. i did a little projection. if we continue at the current pace, $315 million shrinking of the trade deficit we will be a net exporter by september 2016. >> how much earlier is that than the original forecast? >> i just plugged in the numbers. people were talking about 18 or 2020. if you have lower oil prices and it depends on what happens on the u.s. production. we will be a net exporter a lot sooner. >> am i the only one in the world who seems to think lower oil prices will be a net negative for the economy? now i am against the fed which makes me more confident that i'm right. >> that's because you went out to north dakota and you are jaded. you went out to bakkan. >> i am too deep into the well. >> you went to texas, as well? >> multiple times. can i do a graph here?

here is the number -- >> before you draw -- the two fastest growing states in america are north dakota and texas. the two fastest growing states in america. 1 million jobs in texas alone over the last couple of years contributed more than half the job growth. if oil slows down drivers to the overall number are going to pull back and that will make the overall number look worse. that is my point. >> i think the fed is picking up on this in the following way. a big chunk of the marginal cap x has been from oil services. when you have this reduction in production, a shutting in of wells where it comes from the replacement is not clear. let's say it goes into retail, retail which is a couple of clicks of a button to get a sweater is not capital intensive. it results in a net positive for the united states. but a transition period it shows

up as negative. >> for 3.5 years we are talking about we are positive. people say you are pushing stocks and the economy and blind to the real problems. now i'm concerned and it is like be objective, man. >> everything is going to be fine. the faeks of lower oil and the higher dollar are temporary. we need to wrap it up because we have lots of news today. on another note in a serious tone 12 people dead. there are three gun men still at large. french president is addressing his country right now. cnbc is live in paris with the latest. >> reporter: they came shouting "god is great." there are three of them, masked gun men. the attackers storming the offices of charlie hebdo.

we know 12 people are dead, 11 people wounded, 4 of them seriously. two of the dead were police officers, some of the famous cartoonists killed in the attack. what big questions are were who are the attackers? where are they now and are they planning further attacks? police have cordoned off the area behind me where the attacks took place and essentially what we know is president holland was on the scene early on. we expect him to speak momentarily. he called this the worst terrorist attack in france in decades. muslim fundamentalism and attacks are nothing new here in france, certainly a situation that law enforcement has been looking at for a long period of time. france's participation in the fight against the islamic state, a big ally of the united states in that fight is something that comes up continually in the press here in france. of course, thousands of people are already out on the streets

here in paris trying to show their support, showing solidarity for what has happened to these victims. the big message here is we are all charlie. >> thank you very much. we have a long delay there. francois hollande is speaking to the nation. he is speaking in french. we will get you comments when we can. let's turn back to the markets and see what kind of reaction, if any, we have there to the minutes of the federal reserve. let's look at the markets because there is no major movement so far. it takes a little time sometimes after the minutes to digest. the dow is currently up by about 202 points. we were up about 191 going into the minutes. so a little higher than we were. wti crude is currently sitting at 48.44. we will bring you the settle price in about 25 minutes time from now. the ten year note is yielding

1.968%. it went in at 1.971%. we will continue watching reaction for you. let's bring in voices on this charlie smith. michael cugeno joining us in a moment. charlie. would you like to give us your reaction to the minutes and whether or not -- what it means for the investor, if anything. >> i'm not sure that 1.4% inflation rate will scare the fed away from raising rates. there is going to be a lot of pressure on the first half of next year on the fed because cpi will be running negative. people saying hold off. we have cpi running negative year over year. i think the fed is going to continue on the path of trying to push rates back up so they can have dry powder for the next time we get in economically. >> is there anything in the fed minutes that maybe changed any view that you might have had? i thought the most interesting

take away, we could raise rates at this level of inflation. some people claim they know that. i did not. any change to what you think and invest in because of what you heard? >> i think the idea that the fed is going to need to begin to normalize rates here before too long is embedded in the market place and people understand it. the minutes really have become sort of an outmoded -- they are not that useful data. we had an hour and a half press conference after the meeting. the minutes aren't really telling us a lot more. >> it is embedded in the market psychology that they are going to raise rates. nothing is written in stone. is there anything potentially that could happen? i always stressed how data dependent they are. anything that can happen that could not make them raise rates this year? >> certainly. i think the market has been conditioned over the last year and a half that there is going to be a rate increase of some sort at some point. i think they are in a box in

that the u.s. economy while strengthening hasn't demonstrated liftoff or sustainability. there is a limit to how much they can raise. the other issue that comes to play would be deflationary pressures and also deflations or recessions around the rest of the world which create a bigger devergence between what the fed may undertake and what effect that would have on the u.s. economy. there are questions out there. the longer deflationary pressures exist the fed is under no pressure to do anything. 1.4% inflation so what really. >> here is what i'm curious about. we have been talking about the fed for going on six years. >> tiring. >> it is getting tiring. >> thank you for saying that. the minutes are an important part. here is my question to you.

ten is ungod like. one is completely powerless. how important is the federal reserve to the equity market right now? >> well, i think still substantially because as long as you have corporate earnings and a benign fed you are okay. by benign i don't mean they do nothing. benign could be up to a point of short term fed funds increase. i think the market would be conditioned to that and i get the feeling that we are growing and it is healthy to get rid of the subsidy. i think the market has been conditioned slowly along the way. to me the real fear is aggressive moves or surprises that they feel like they have to move or go on a strike where market forces are driving rates. to me that is the real risk. >> let's look at some of your stock picks here. we have about a minute left because we have been introduced to a whole new level of volatility recently. it certainly seems that was an expected process as we move

towards potentially higher rates. are there any three particular stocks that can survive this volatility with strength? >> three names we have are san disk, microsoft and boeing. and you look at boeing, boeing by name is volatility. two years ago a fantastic year. this past year not a lot to write home about. they continue to crank out the 787. they have their production numbers on for the year 2014. the 737 max is going to begin production here very shortly competing well against the neo. i think you have to look through the short term volatility to a well run business like a boeing. >> in fact, since you mentioned the last year has not been fantastic for boeing. it looks like rival air bus beat them out last year. charlie, mike, always good to see you. thank you. >> thanks, guys. meantime, french president francois hollande just finished

addressing his nation that followed the attack in paris. michelle caruso-cabrera is with us on the latest. >> he began the address by saying that france was attacked at its heart, that the cartoonists were attacked for their courage and killed for their courage and that france would maintain their beliefs and fight for the same beliefs as they had. he also said that the flags in france for the next three days will be at half staff and tomorrow a moment of reflection at noon time in france. it was an address of about eight minutes and somber and sad. three days in mourning in france as a result of these attacks. >> thank you very much. let's get back to business now. got a little hope on the housing front. treasury yields sinking which means mortgage applications are on the rise. is now the absolute final best time to lock in your mortgage rate? later on we are up today but

it has been a rocky start to the new year for the stock market. what happens when we start the year in the red. we have all of these charts that someone has brought for us to read. we will tell you all about it when "street signs" returns. q, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. so we put our secrets into a new book. and if you're one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling, we'll send you a copy for free. look at the rate of return we've made on some of our recent options trades, versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. there's no comparison. to make the best returns in today's market, you have to learn how to trade options. and our book will show you how to do it for free. jon has been trading options for more than 30 years. pete is one of the top 100 traders in the country. and our book will teach you how to trade options for free. so call now. [ male announcer ] call the number

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it means mortgage rates are likely to fall again. rick santelli joining us in the bond pits of chicago. under 2%. it's kind of like the cubs, in a way. when you think something can't happen it does but normally in a bad way. >> i think it is worse than the cubs. i think the cubs have a better chance to win the world series next year than for central banks to deliver on the notion that they can inflate things and hope they don't deflate. if they deflate that gives them the right to do more of what caused it to inflate. seems like a vicious loop of insanity. i know the big story now is that we see lower fees and see this much resurgeance in housing. if it was only about rates why isn't housing better the last handful of years.

there is so much more going on than rates. 196. if you look at bunds they are basically in the 40s. why quantitative easing? you have all the fixed income of high quality saovereigsovereign you have jgb under 30 basis points. i'm half way through the text of the fed and we are having a debate here. some think it was hawkish because it talked about we can't do it in april, maybe later. in the end pillar of prices is going to make it so they have a pick on raising rates for as long as they want in many people's opinion. >> the fed has guilts and the cubs have goats. maybe they are both cursed, rick. >> i think we are all cursed because they work for us. that's what i think. >> have you found the goat? >> yeah, yeah, yeah. somewhere on the other side of the potomac, i think. >> since you have just given

diana olick since high praise let's bring her in with two big mortgage stories that have been developing today, applications and premium changes. >> right. look, i'm going to agree with my colleague, rick. that is what is behind this big news today from the fha. 3.5% required. sources telling cnbc that president obama will announce a significant reduction in the fha's annual insurance premium tomorrow. fha had been the loan of choice for first-time home buyers with not quite perfect credit but it began bleeding cash and went into the red. so it raised the premiums and credit scores leaving those much needed first time home buyers in the cold. the administration is looking to get buyers back, as well.

for the average borrower this decrease could mean a savings of about $80 a month. another reason is that fanny and freddy announced a 3% down payment product which could cut into fha's business and hurt the ongoing repair of its portfolio by taking away the best borrowers. all of this as mortgage applications down 8% from a year ago according to mortgage bankers association. we have more on both if, ha and applications story on cnbc.com. go to it. back to you guys. stick around, diana because i would like to bring in since you mentioned the nba, the president of the mortgage bankers association. thank you for joining us. let's pick up on some of the developments with the fha that diana was talking about. you have a low down payment. i understand why the administration wants to lure back more first-time home buyers and spruce up the market. you have a low down payment.

now the fha is also decreasing the insurance premiums. doesn't this sound a little risky to you? haven't we kind of been here before? >> it is nowhere near like before. when the crash started that diana was referencing the annual mortgage insurance premium was about 55 basis points. they more than doubled it. today it is 135 basis points. there are tipping points in any scale here. as we look at the analysis, economists like mark zandy, others put out analysis that says you can drop the premiums in the range of 50 basis points and have a premium much higher than they were charging in the period that led them up to their troubles and yet give an opportunity for home buyers to come in. if they do a reduction and if it is in the range of 50 basis points which is what we are hearing, that is a huge impact to home buying.

let's think about the economy. moving trucks, supply sales, builders, repair workers. >> is it really enough, though? is it really enough in the margins? when i'm talking to a lot of folks a lot saying this might help some folks on the mortgages but it is not just that rate and not just the mortgage insurance premium. it is the fico score. it is having the down payment, even 3.5% and having confidence in the housing market today with prices sky rocketing still on your average home. is this really enough to juice this spring housing market? >> i think that is a great question. we got to this place where we are with a fairly anemic housing market. this will have a marginal impact. imagine waking up tomorrow and everybody sees basis points, realtors will be out selling. this -- we need to get

milemmiums into the game. bring in that first-time home buyers this incentive will motivate some. it is not the single resolution to get the housing market into some sort of bubble again but it is certainly going to help create a lot of motivation and incentive for qualified buyers to start considering maybe i should start buying. as we enter the spring market which is perfect timing, spring-time applications begin in february. you are in a good position to help the economy more broadly, not just specific homeowners but this is a real economic stimu s stimulus. >> why do we push borrowing so much? i argue homes are so expensive because you can borrow. college is expensive because you can borrow. at what point do you realize home prices are so expensive because people can buy a home borrowing 95%.

>> there is a good balance here. we had an excess in pushing homeownership beyond sustainability which led to the crash. we had 100% financing, no documentation mortgages, nonamortizing mortgages. it was a get rich quick scheme. that really has gone away to the point where the pendulum has swung so far to the conservative it is much more difficult. we talk about credit availability. the fed chairman has talked about it. you hear analysts talking about it. this is a matter of getting the pendulum back to a balance point where you are not overpromoting homeownership but are not barcading the doors by overcharging home buyers to come into the market. >> i am on the fha website right now. i am going to read you a quote. your down payment can be as low as 3.5% of the purchase price. in other words, you have a loan to value at 96.5%. how does that encourage responsible borrowing? >> down payment alone is not a

measure of performance. it does impact you in the event of a house price drop if you are trapped in your home. that is an issue. building equity is absolutely important. down payment is the single biggest barrier to homeownership. unless you got a lotf omoney from mom and dad you delay that decision to buy much longer than what you might be able to reasonably sustain in a mortgage payment. if you look at a stable housing market like a lot of metropolitan markets have become post recession you don't overinflate. this program can work. fha has had 3.5% down payments available for decades and performed relatively better than fannie mae or freddie mac who requiredtypically larger down payments. it is the full package, fully qualified buyers. when you are overcharging on the premium and you can adjust that back safely and soundly it will

have a kick in a positive sense to the housing market. it is not going to create this robust sort of scare effect that will make people think we have overdone it. this is a marginal move. it is a smart move. it is a good time to do it. >> i hope so. david and diana thank you for your time today. we have two huge ceo interviews coming your way. first heading out to ceos in las vegas for intel ceo. >> big company. >> i have heard of that company before. >> you have had good intel. we will speak with the ceo of alkermes. it is about access to information. stick around, friends. we are back after this. 798 fico score, d? i kna thanks to the tools and help on experian.com.

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right now oil just settling for the day currently sitting at 48.70 for one barrel of the black stuff moving higher today. oil can go up rather than just down.

earlier today it hit 46.83. back to april 2009 levels. earlier today that would be down about 55% from its high which was above 107 last year. >> we are down 45% in three months. oil stocks are down, as well. this has just been one of these things that we look back on and go remember that time in late 2014, early 2015 because this is like 2008 with oil, not comparing it in any other way to '08. oil has dropped 45% in three months. >> in a very fast period of time. shares of dow component intel are moving higher. the company grabbing a lot of attention in las vegas. john fortt is there and said to me privately he may never come home. john spoke exclusively with the intel ceo and joins us now. >> i'm coming home. before we get to intel i will do show and tell for you. i have a hearing aid in this

ear. you can adjust the volume from your phone. it's the halo made for iphone. you can even adjust the sound space. so base, treble, that sort of thing. maybe for you older people here is an option. this one, i will take the hearing aid out. this product, the audio ear buds have heart rate monitors in them. these have intel inside. it is among the things i talked to intel ceo about. we talk about security. they own mcafee. take a listen to what he had to say about security and what he expects to happen in the next year. >> naturally interacting is not on a two dimensional plain. you and i talk to each other. w we see each other with depth. that is how you want to interact with the computer. it is that sight that is added to the brain of the computer. >> and that is actually him

talking about the -- >> john, we have you still? no. >> and then the viewers got a nice shot of the top of my head. it is a little ironic to lose the shot in the middle of the biggest technology conference in the world. >> isn't that crazy? >> i told fortt, john fortt, you have to get off the dial up modem. prodigy is where it is at these days. >> reporter: i work with the technology that you give me. this is what you give me to work with. >> i gave you a camera. let me give you, that was talking about intel's real sense technology which you use your hands and a special camera to interact with content. here is him talking about security post sony hack. take a listen.

>> pattern recognition for how data is moving in the data censor is where security is really moving to. we have been moving the security team at mcafee more and more to focusing products on that kind of a solution. >> and that's really interesting. i was asking him exactly when we are talking about intel in the same breath as a fire eye, as palo alto networks. those are two next generation security companies that brought up for 2015. perhaps having a better year than 2014 based on some of the security concerns. >> just quickly, i want to get on to diversity issue in a second. you know how they are pushing into wearables and want to be big in smart wearables, i have been reading about how intel has this amazing computer built into like a jacket button. did you hear about that? >> i heard a little bit about that. we have the ear buds that

measure heart rate. they also have a car seat type monitor, car type monitor for parents who might forget their kid in a car. a lot of technology that is not traditionally stuff you would have thought about when you thought about intel. >> the hot topic in silicon valley for technology in general has been lack of diversity of the workforce. intel making some kind of a pledge. what is it? >> it's a major pledge. key note here last night said he is going to commit $300 million from intel to scholarships to figuring out how to get intel's workforce more in line with the available workforce demographics wise in the u.s. so he is not saying it is going to be half women engineers. he says federal statistics show it is closer to around 24% of the engineering population is women. he wants to get in the various

areas to representative of women, of blacks, of latinos, very ambitious but says it is important to do and he believes intel can do it. take a listen. >> diversity i think brings more diverse solutions. we were sitting around trying to figure out how to charge our smart bracelet. it was a woman in the group who said what i do is put my jewelry in a bowl. why don't you build a charging bowl? we looked at that and said that is genius. to her it was natural. >> what is key here is silicon valley in particular has a history of using the idea of mar tockeracy. a lot of people have argued color and gender blindness has not been what silicon valley is about. it has been an all boy system mask raiding at that. we have ceos saying they are

taking actions on diversity. they are making a business case for it saying it will make them better businesses and not doing it as a charity case or political move. this is big that he is doing this. >> thank you very much, john fortt. hope you do come back. we like you over here. we have much more exclusive coverage from ces in las vegas. josh lipton sitting with go pro ceo nick woodman. you can catch that interview live on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. eastern. the big stock calls of the day that you need to know about. we call it street talk. it is coming up next. oil below $49 a barrel. gas prices down more than 100 days in a row. it sounds like great news on the surface but there is a down side. it's costing people jobs. that is the down side. stay with us.

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many of us have been cheering the drop in oil prices, not this guy because it is saving everyone a lot of money at the gas pumps there is a down side. we have had our first bankruptcy of shale oil companies.

it is a small company called wbh energy. many of the bigger ones are highly leveraged and some say they won't survive it and will cost a lot of jobs. let's bring in kate kelly with more. >> although the texas driller that filed for chapter 11 was privately held so ramifications are likely contained the market clearly thinks the failure is a harbinger of things to come. raised about $550 billion in new bonds of all stripes since 2010 with crude oil now at $48.65 i believe was the closing. many may be operating in the red. with debt payments very soon to come. sandridge indicated their break even may be around $60 per barrel mark meaning they are drilling at a loss and have a debt payment due next week on senior floats. the market is a bit dubious about the health of swift energy whose next coupon payment is the

same day, next thursday. there is an apparent success story and that istia near energy, something we talk about a lot. they went to wall street asking for $11.55 billion to build a new export facility late last year. to date and this is fresh information they have commitments of $20 billion from wall street banks. so almost twice that. everything is on track for them to close in the next few months from what i'm hearing. wall street likes that company perhaps because contracts a long dated and natural gas trading with a two handle i believe but not crude. >> 97. >> you said around there. but the names to watch, swift energy and sandridge. >> more details to come. i don't want to say anything too dramatic. >> pointing out facts. >> they have coupon payments next week and particularly in swift's case they don't have a

ton of cash on hand. >> thank you very much. you look like cell phone bars here. >> i should stand up straight. >> in order of descending height. >> okay. time for something we do every day not necessarily at this time, though. today cigna, goldman sachs upgrading to a buy. >> up 2.1%. goldman thinks the obamacare implementation risk to cigna and other insurers have diminished and like the valuation. the target goes to 117 from 113. >> moving on to general dynamics, a downgrade at rbc. >> music. rbc down grades and cuts price target to 141 from 150 still above the current price. if you own general diem naices take note because rbc saying 2014 was so good it will be hard

to have that kind of year. they downgrade it. >> we are upping the funk factor here on "street talk." american express seeing upgrade to buy goldman sachs. >> analysts see 13% total upside. the stock is up 2%. the macrothesis is this. people are going to spend more money on credit card and pay it back. average target is 98.19. >> this is our under the radar name. it is compass minerals. >> i'm into the music. i can't stop moving. it's a kansas based salt and fertilizer maker. up to buy. target 105 a share. stock is at 89.5 bucks. falling from 2009 to 2013. they are expected to finally be above the '09 levels.

just watch cmp. no more music. does lousy trading start to the year mean a lousy year for the year? a man who studied just that will bring his findings next. >> and talking to a ceo whose company is bouncing because it may have an answer to a bad form of mental illness. stay with us.

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look at alkermes after the drug to treat schizophrenia met the trial. >> looking at your stock today obviously up a lot. people are excited about the data. you have positive data in phase two and phase three. stock is up. do you think the streets is not recognizing the opportunity you have here. >> i am happy it is up. i think it is on its way to going up even more in the medicines continue to prove themselves in clinical trials. i think the street has been very focused on oncology and orphan drugs. here we are working on largest

indications known to man, schizophrenia, depression, addiction, things like that. it will take a little time for people to understand how significant the medicines can be. we have to make sure the medicines are effective, safe and useful in millions of people. >> why have the mental health areas been so difficult for drug companies? we are seeing this as one of the few markets that is expected to shrink. there is a lot of generic competition coming on. why are you guys in it? >> the market, the dollar sales of pharmaceuticals products may shrink because of patent expereration. the size of the market itself, the global burden of disease is growing. so many patients are suffering from these conditions and it is a worth while place to be developing. >> what is it worth to you how much of that market share do you think you can grab? >> in schizophrenia last year i

think the schizophrenia market world wide was $21 billion market with most medicines generic. depression is largest burden of human suffering quantitatively of any of the diseases. it's not a question of how big the drugs can be. the biggest issue is always determining their safety and efficacy in large numbers of patients and making sure you have a medicine that should be used in millions of people. >> well known hedgefund manager in a conference today in denmark said he is coming after pharmaceutical companies and he thinks patents are basically bull you know what. that there is too much weight on patents in your industry, really big bio pharma. defend the current patent system if you can. >> i think if you are happy you should get rid of patents. the only way to justify spending $1 billion in a decade developing a medicine when many times the development programs

fail is to have protection. it is essentially the essential prerequisite to have a bio tech industry. so that is when the bio technology industry organization or pharmaceutical trade organizations find to defend the industry, primarily around intellectual industry. >> you are heading to the conference next week and after sort of an official discussion about the drugs, a lot of these companies sort of break out into their q & a sessions, breakout sessions and some of them are web cast and some are not. problem is a lot of market moving information is released through those sessions. to talk to us about what your thoughts are on it and maybe you, as well, richard, say whether it's a good thing to keep them away from the average viewer who might sort of trade on something without fully understanding the data as opposed to the idea that maybe only some people get access to this information. >> i was going to say this argument comes from the adam --

the columnist and some smaller biotech investors aenl not big funds saying we should have access to the breakout presentations and can't get into the conversation because this is information investors are moving stocks on. you are web casting your breakouts. >> i don't think they're as mysterious as people think they might be. i'm all in favor of making them public information. our data are so interesting and come by kated we need to explain them we want more people to hear more information. >> basically every other ceo besides you in the city is a dirtbag. that's not the headline, right? >> i would not quote -- >> private, private people. >> okay. meg, richard, thank you so much. what happens when the s&p falls for three trading days of a new year? does that mean the whole year is going to be bad or could it be good? this guy's done research going back like 1,000 years of the u.s. stock market and present the research.

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take a look at the markets here. we are just marginally lower. the dow up by triple digits.

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learned about what a bad start to the year means. does it mean a terrible 2015? >> the plarkt starting with three straight down years is like the peyton manning with three straight interceptions. it doesn't happen often and people get nervous. that's what's happening this year. we went back and looked. since 1928, the market with three consecutive down days or more in eight different years and seven of the eight the market finished higher on the year for an average gain of 8.3% and that's better than the average of all year since 1928 of 7.5% and i think it's important to put in context a weak start to the year does not preclude year-end gains. >> wow! about 87% of the time then when the stock market opens with three down days we finish the year higher. that's pretty incredible. >> it is counterintuitive. there's stats going on, santa claus rally, the years ending in

5. you have to be careful but i think it's worth highlighting we are in a primary bull trend in the market and this pullback, the fact that it happened to start at the beginning of the year really is less important to us than the fact of where the primary trend is and that's still giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls for you. >> dang it. i think you might have read my mind because i was going to ask do you care about the calendar at all? does it mean anything technically to anybody but a new year? >> i think there is some significance. you know, if you look at the january barometer, a weak five days to the year and weak january as a whole precludes weakness but three days is too short a time period to be know vous about. we need evidence that the market is topping out. we don't see that. still above the december lows. a rising 200-day moving average. stats aside, i think the bulls are still in control.

>> got to leave it there. jonathan, fascinating stuff as always. thank you. >> thanks. >> 87% of the time. >> yeah. 87% of the time. thank you very much. >> almost all the percent. >> not quite. it's 87% of the time. thank you for watching "street signs." you are off for the next couple of days. well-deserved break. >> thank you. >> see you monday. "closing bell" is next. and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. after losing nearly 500 points on monday and tuesday we get a bounce in the u.s. markets, not only for equities but oil, wti bounced a little bit today. >> a couple of factors contributing to the rebound in the market today. >> minutes were what we would expect but you had decent jobs number this morning from the adp. and the retail sales, some of them pretty