tv Fast Money CNBC January 7, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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wat closing bell. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq studio, overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. our traders tonight are sim seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman. rough day for gopro. the stock ending lowering by just 4%. we'll hear from the company's ceo nick woodman. first, stocks staging a major rebound, snapping their five-day losing streak with all three major averages ending the day higher by well over 1%. the dow finishing up 212 points. oil, take a lack at this. finishing in positive territory, putting an end to a four-day slide as fears over a greek exit. brian kelly, you said the fomc minutes were big today? >> i actually think they were. i think what the fed told you in the fomc minutes today is don't worry about jobs anymore. the job market is not their biggest concern. their biggest concern is inflation expectations. they said they need to see inflation expectations go back to 2%.
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this was a december meeting. since then, inexpectations have fallen partly due to oil. but the bottom line is the fed has a dual mandate and that's what they're going to focus on. what i did is i closed out of virtually all my long dollar exposure today, because i think now the fed has to start talking the dollar down, getting the commodities up and getting the inflationary expectations back up. >> i take a look at the rebound and saw it in oil. particularly in wti. i see the rise in stocks. and i think to myself, we need oil to go higher and/or stabilize in order for stocks to go higher. >> the correlations to the market, did the market go higher today because oil went higher or did the market go higher today because germany made some very moderate comments on greece? i think it was that. i think it's macro. but i agree with what brian says about the dollar. i think the dollar goes higher in 2015. it's not going 12% higher. the thing that the feds said about foreign markets is they basically told us we're going to tell you we're paying attention to the rest of the world.
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but they're not really going to dictate their policy based on this. nothing they said today changes anything in terms of the fed outlook. what i think you do is you trade this market based upon macro. and if you think that greece is not as big of a deal, i do not, then markets can go higher. 13 of the last 20 days, s&p volatility north of 1%. and many days much higher than that. the volatility is here to stay, i agree with tim. it was more the german headline that we saw that rally in the market. i also agree with your statement there that you need oil to stabilize. we need much higher oil to get a bid in the marketplace. if you're looking at the market, it's taking cap ex as its lead. we're in the earning innings. >> i think that's a good point. bank of america's strategist. >> spelled just like it sounds. >> saying today essentially that the pullback in energy prices has a more destructive effect than the positive impact on
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consumer discretion when it comes to corporate profits. >> i agree with your point. >> that means we're all wrong. >> i do think that there is the idea of oil and the sentiment around oil trading here that really kind of has people unnerved, because on the other hand, you have the benefit from lower oil prices. but you do have a thought why is it trading so low. it is that the global growth story is really under a threat here. that is disconcerting as well as the very real and one to one effect in the energy space itself. >> that bothers me. you know, yesterday i said price is not truth. and i say today, i kind of have to laugh at the market. because it's not about oil. oil is trading with a four handle because there is a price war. brian and i get a little board on this yesterday. this is all about macro concerns. it's about central bank systemic risks that people should be feeling. and granted, it's a year where we're going to really put the fed and the ecb to test. >> let's trade this whole thing.
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xop, you said you would be interested. it tracks exploration. >> it didn't trade well. and oil didn't trade well today. although i do think somewhere around here we're looking at a bottom in oil. most importantly i didn't buy xlt or clr. the reason why is when the oil inventories came out, you saw gas's lean demand tick down a little bit. not a lot. it's one week. i would watch for a bottom in oil. it's not here yet. >> i think what is interesting about this move, you take a look at the xle which tracks the broader oil index and that finally turned positive. then you take a look at emp and it did horribly. >> right. >> you need to -- >> has to come down, things have to be paired back in terms of capital. >> it's going to be a lagging effect. >> yes. >> until you see the underlying effect, oil has to really, really start to base substantively until you see a rise in a lot of these names. and the last one you're going to see a downstream. you're going to see it in the refiners. refiners have benefitted in this whole environment. they actually performed well. you start to see earnings.
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>> they're there is still pain to come in the refiners that we have not seen yet. >> you're going to see earnings guideness start to be reined in there and the eps really starts to matter. and the market has not factored that in. it's going to start to hit downstream. we've seen it hit upstream, with the emps. and as far as the xle, you look at chevron and exxon and schlumberger. those are the names that have really carried that index. >> we never know exactly when oil bottoms versus when some of these equities bottoms. it's not at the same time. i look at a uri because of their energy exposure has gotten obliterated. i think that's way overdone. we bought some right here. i think that it is only u.s. focussed if we start to see a home builder rebound. you or i will be a big beneficiary of that construction building. i like uri. in the high 80s, is there more downside? maybe. it's good to own for the long-term. >> steve grasso is going to make his way over to the smart board.
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sashay. he is watching a critical level that tracks the small caps. what are you taking a look at? >> if you lack at these levels here, what we were really concerned with, and once again i give my friend gary berman a little credit here. he pointed this chart out to me. whenever it is looking at these levels here, you look for the triple top. so you wanted to see basically either higher or at least the same level. and when i first had given this chart a little bit of credibility, it was 120 and change. we really didn't get a higher high from that 120.97 level. so we did get it here. but it fell. it fell and fell dramatically. if you notice, i pointed out that 116 level is where it would go down to. that's basically where you start to see some support here. so you see 116 all the way down to 114 is going to be support. if it does not break to the upside, these levels here, let's call it 117, if it does not
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break to the upside above the levels, you're looking at a 110 iwm. and if it doesn't hold that level, you're looking at a revisit and get a double bottom here, 103 level. >> this is basically unwatched for break above 121 and change. >> right now you're on watch for now break a lower level. 117. you have to see it hold above 117. >> with the pattern the market has given us, we have had two or three of them. each time ibm has been sympathetic, to me this 113 to 14, you marked 114. that to me is the level you should be buying this thing again. i'm just curious what your clients are seeing out there. this to me, you found the level, you traded the top. people are buying the market again. it's not going farther down >> agree with you. the reason why you see so much support there is that's where you get the 100 day and the 200-day moving averages. they cluster around that 114 and change area. but if it breaks to that level, tim, to your point, that's where guys are going to load up on the short side and realize the overall market should be coming
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in, if that level breaks. and then you're looking at 110, 112. all right. coming up next, it's been a rough day for gopro. we'll go behind the move and talk holiday sales and the much anticipated consumer drones. nick woodman live for an exclusive interview right after this break. we needed 30 new hires for our call center.
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one name sitting out is broad rally. twitter falling under 4%. sell mortgage than 140,000 shares of stock this month according to an sec filing. over $5 million. so basically we reverse some of the carl icahn rumors. and by the way, scott walker reported icahn is not in the stock. >> that famous phrase about twitter. but they haven't gotten the other things that people are looking out of twitter. it's bk's line kirks you just say it? >> they only have to do one thing right. they only have to do one thing right. >> that is my line! >> but what i will say, costello resign organize getting thrown out, carl icahn, these are driving the stock, a stock heavily beatin down.
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that's all you need. it's been an out-performer in 2015. i don't know about the fundamental side. now it has had a big run. brian? >> they only have to do one thing right. that's why i own it. but i do think that's the case. yes, there are some insider sellings. i would be more concerned than if the stock was actually break do you think. if you look at costello's holdings, he sold 140,000 or so. he still has seven million options struck at $1. he still has a financial stake in the firm. it doesn't really bother me that much. thing is much higher to go here. >> people are really waiting on those two events, right? people are waiting on activists or costello, he is selling the stock. now he needs to get out of the stock. >> there look likes there has to be upside. either the company itself has to improve or he has to go. >> right. perception is reality. you don't even start to make any changes or even lean to the way of making any changes going forward, the stock is not going to move here. you need one of those two things happen. >> the activist just seems highly unlikely. >> all right. >> the yahoo story. that's the other part of this. coming up next, it's been a
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pretty tough day for gopro despite the broad rally that we saw. we'll go behind the move and talk holiday sales and the much anticipated consumer drones with the ceo of gopro, nick woodman from ces for an exclusive interview. that is right after the break. stay tuned. want more "fast money"? now you can catch full episodes any time -- >> anywhere. >> on your mobile device. any time. >> and i do mean everywhere. >> just go to cnbc.com/livetv to watch "fast money" on your smartphone, your tablet or your laptop. watch live or get up to the speed with the latest full episodes, all with one simple click. with market advice this good, you can't afford to miss a single trade. get your ticket to "fast money." >> everywhere! >> at cnbc.com/live tv. ons with vectorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes, ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,...
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can tell you is one of if the not popular booth here, they're giving away cameras. they have a keg of beer this the back. i don't know if it's the cameras or the the keg of beer that explains the line that is going around here. >> i think it's everything. we've got one of the most exciting and engaging brands. in the world if not here at ces. and, you know, it's not our first rodeo. we've been doing this for a few years now, and the momentum is built up. and people just know there is going to be a good party at go pro. >> let me ask you right away about holiday sales. you know investors were so excited about your holiday season. i know analysts who cover you guys were saying they thought this was going to be a gopro christmas. can you tell us anything about how you guys saw that holiday season play out? >> well, i mean for us and our customers and retailers, it was a gopro christmas. it was the best new product introduction we've ever had. i can't go into any more detail than that.
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we'll have our earnings call in a few weeks where we'll be more specific. we were really pleased with how the quarter went. >> when you say best introduction, you're talking about the hero 4 black? >> well, it's always a big job to roll from one generation of a product into a new one. gopro is distributed over 30,000 retail locations around the world. so you've got to wean down inventories to make room for new product coming in and do a global launch. and there is a lot of moving parts. and we did a better job this past holiday than ever before. >> let's talk about the competition. you guys have this big footprint here. you've got competitors here too. sony and polar ride and sony coming out with the new 4k action camera. how do you think about from here gopro's competitive advantage, its edge when you have all these tech companies still moving into your market? >> you know, we've had the same number of competitors more or
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less since we introduced our first hd hero back in q4 of 2009. 2010, 2011 came the onslaught of the copy cats, the many toos. sony has been competing with us for at least three years now. and i think that people forget that. we're now a public company. and so the headlines read, you know, new gopro competitor or somebody is going to take gopro's turf. and what people fail to realize, we've had these competitors for years. and we've just done a better job of staying ahead, leveraging the brand, leveraging our content and scaling gopro far beyond just hardware into a more of a global entertainment media brand that, yes, starts with the hardware. but it's really the resulting content that has made gopro so special and helped keep us ahead. >> i talk to analysts who say part of the success is not just the technology of the camera,
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but another sort of way go prodifferentiates itself is really a success and emphasis on branding, on marketing, on creating kind of a lifestyle. i buy a gopro. that is a camera that snowboarder shaun white uses or a surfer like kelly slater uses. that part of it, the lifestyle you create? >> no question. if you ask most people where did you first learn about gopro, they say because of all the incredible videos or photos being shared. because of our customers' content. our customer might be kelly slater, our customer might be espn or might be some inspired everyday person who just did something interesting and captured it and shared it on youtube or facebook with their gopro. because that's such an authentic way for people to learn about the company, learn about the brand, learn about the value proposition, it's allowed us to stay ahead of the competition because we're not selling a thing, we're selling a promise of great content. >> when you walk around here,
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you see the different ways cameras are evolving. you see these 360 degree cameras. you see selfie sticks which looks like they're picking up momentum. kind of an inflection point. how do you see the camera that you mark and develop and sell. how do you see that evolving? >> and products like you have mentioned have also been around for years. we saw some of the first 360 or spherical gopro-like cameras come out debut here a few years ago. i think we're working on a lot of things at gopro. we're very focused. you don't see us running off in a lot of different directions and chasing a lot of different opportunities. you see a very clear focus of enabling great don't. helping our customers capture themselves, engaged in their favorite experience, engaged in their passions. and then helping them share that experience with other people in the form of engaging content. and right now the sweet spot for gopro is our current line of
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cameras doing incredibly well. and you'll see gopro continue to grow into new product areas over time. and things are looking good. >> melissa lee, i think you had a question for nick? >> absolutely. nick, i want to talk to you about your stock and your valuation. you're obviously priced like a growth stock when you look at your pe right now. it's about 340 right now on a current basis. what your cfo told investors today is growth outside the united states would remain relatively flat. so there is no growth there. so where is the growth coming from that will support the valuation that you have, the notion that there is this tremendous growth ahead for gopro? >> i'm not sure that jack's comments, our cfo were correctly interpreted. i mean, we see a lot of growth outside of the united states. on a percentage basis, he might have been talking. but in absolute dollars, we have a lot of room to grow outside of the u.s. the u.s. is doing extremely well
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because we -- our home court. we do a really good job with channel marketing, how we market gopro in our retail channels. it's where we're based. and with recently opening sales and marketing offices in europe, we're going to start to see a lot more traction there. we have every reason to believe we can enjoy the same sales success we have in the u.s., internationally. >> so can we drill down a little bit on those comments? i think that's what rattled investors today in terms of how your stock traded in today's session which was lower as the broader markets rose. what people came away with was that the move to a direct distribution model, ie selling directly as opposed to distribution channels, that will would take some time to gain momentum, maybe a year or so. so even on an absolute dollar basis or on a percentage basis, either way you want to put it, nick, are we going to see slowing growth in europe in 2015? >> no, i don't think you're going to see -- i think you might see smaller percentage of
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sales relative to our overall business that we're doing in the united states. but growth overall should be very healthy internationally in 2015. i don't think we have any concern about that. >> okay. i want to ask you about drones, because that is probably one of the hottest things out there at ces. late 2015 launch. what should we be expecting from gopro? and are you guys looking to use your stock as currency to acquire maybe a drone company? because there are a lot of small privately held companies out there. >> so there has been a lot of speculation, is gopro entering the drone market. and i obviously can't comment on potential future product introductions. but what i can say is the drone market is fabulous for gopro and gopro is fabulous for it. i grew up as an rc plane enthusiast. i flew rc planes, radio controlled planes since i was little kid. it was a rather geeky hobby that not that many people were into. now so see so many people around
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the world getting excited about flying drones, you have to ask yourself why. it's not for the joy of flight. it's for the incredible content that a drone plus a go pro enables. so whether gopro got involved in the drone market or not, for us we just love the industry because it's helping drive sales of our product. >> it looks like, you know, nick, melissa talked about drones and the other hot trend. a pair of strategic partnership in some way? >> when you think about what makes the people's gopro content so interesting is how immersive it is. when somebody documents an experience with a gopro, they're capturing the perspective that really suck the viewing audience into that experience. it's almost like experience transfer. the natural evolution of that is to view that type of content on
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a more immersive platform like virtual reality. and we have experimented with some atmospheric cal gopros. there are a lot of companies out there also experimenting combining multiple gopros to capture don't and the viewing experience is phenomenal. and we've recently seen surgeons documenting hip replacements and other injuries using our dual hero system, two gopros together and playing back that footage on an oculus headset to teach young students how that process, how that surgery is done. and apparently it's an incredible teaching tool. so there is clearly points of intersection. >> last question. you talked a lot about gopro as a camera company. but there is so much excitement about gopro as a media company, as a media brand. i know you have been hiring in that area. can you tell us how that evolution is going, how you see yourself developing as a media brand as well as a camera maker? >> well, it's organic. the more cameras that we sell,
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the more active, passionate and inspired humans around the world are enabled to capture and share experiences. gopro being shared. youtube told us while in 2013, 2.8 years of content titled gopro was shared on youtube by customers. in 2014, it grew almost 40% to 3.9 years. >> right. >> so we're seeing almost 40% of growth in the content being shared titled gopro. from that we're able to pick the best of customer content and redistribute it as gopro channel programing, which spreads the gospel of gopro and what is possible with a gopro. and that's a natural organic process. >> would you ever see, i know when investors have -- they're curious about whether is gopro's ambition some day maybe create its sports action network, your espn? >> it's happening. you're seeing the gopro channel do extremely well on youtube, do
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extremely well on xbox, do extremely well on virgin american airlines. everywhere we put the gopro channel, it's one of the most engaging channels on that platform. so i would expect to see that continue. >> last question. i know you still use gopro a lot in your own life. in terms of what you shot yourself, nick, what is the favorite? >> it's always going to be the birth of my son, i think. but my most recent favorite is my 4 1/2-year-old son hugo over new year's holiday break just surfed his first waves with dad. >> nice. >> i was pushing him into waves and i had to go on the front of the board to film him. i'm a proud papa. >> hugo woodman, nick woodman, we appreciate your time. >> thanks, josh. >> back to you. >> thank you, josh lipton and thank you nick woodman. on a day when the markets broadly rallied, what is the concern here? >> there is so much good news.
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a lot of tracks on a weekly basis. everything he said about the youtube channel growth up 46% year-over-year there is obviously an app future gopro on apple that has been phenomenally sufficient. but the 250% growth from '11 to 12 and the 80 from 13 to 14 is now going to be 27% next year and 18% in a couple of years. and it's not going to grow to support that 360 pe, unless they become this massive media channel. >> in his defense, this was the go to christmas present. everyone wanted these. we heard it talked about on the show. you've seen it. kids love. this it's not just kids. it's college kids. it's in the business world. >> it's big kids. >> kids like me. i don't have one, though. if they can still harness that, i still believe the hardware side of it should be sold. >> right. >> and i don't mean split up. i mean you should be selling this because it's too easy to compete against them. i went with garman. i would rather go with a garman
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stock but garmin is not cool. this is cool. >> everybody wants one. you take a look at how the stock traded over the past one month. it's been down 15%. it's has lockup expectations. and a massive lockup expiration in february. we're worried about the others. this one is 70 million plus shares. >> without a doubt a headwind. but i actually like the stock in the longer run. >> really? >> yes, absolutely. >> where? and when? >> right here. >> right here? >> right here, absolutely. even a head of the lockup. and here is why. you're talking about an amazon, an apple where people give, wall street most particularly and most importantly gives them a pass. nobody cares on wall street. >> down 15% in the past month is a pass? >> but bk, why wouldn't the lockup affect it? and i pooh-poohed it. so i was dead wrong. the question is why? >> i said the same thing. so listen, it going to be a head wind? of course it's going to be a
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headwind if people sell it. i'm talking long-term, year, two year, gopro goes much higher. it will go higher. >> with the short interest, the lockup, you have so many other factors having nothing to do with business, nothing to do with the stock price that could potentially affect it. it's the deep end of the pool. still ahead, dick's sporting goods soaring on rumors the company could be looking to go private. our own karen finerman has the real name. and later, the chip name behind the latest smart car craze and apple pay. we're going back to vegas live when we come back. cool. that's right. it's just that i'm worried about you know "hidden things..." ok, why's that? no hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. i'm all about "free" travel, babe. that's what i do. [ female announcer ] fortunately, there's an easier way, with creditcards.com. compare hundreds of cards from every major bank and find the one that's right for you.
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time for pops and drops. a pop for sunedison. >> it was nice they announced a small deal with chirp. more stock going down and this was a little bit of good news. hopefully there is a floor. >> drop for micron, down 2%. tim? >> we talked about if stock yesterday as the numbers came out. the bar was very, very high. the growth margin expansion was almost demanded in a stock that sits at 31. has very good six months support. you wait a day and watch. >> beakers? >> bank of america, merrill
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lynch for those playing home name this their top security pick, up 4%. we know bk does not like the management of this. however, since the management is only out for themselves, you might as well play along and given the base that we have here, i think you buy fireeye. >> what? >> yes. >> wow. >> is bk -- >> crazy night. >> fall for t-mobile at 5%. grasso? >> they have been the true innovators in the entire place. they're killing it on pricing, taking market share from the other major players. i'm still long. >> and we have a drop for mcmolars. more trouble for mcdonald's japan after officials reveal a human tooth has been found in a order of franchise. the news came after a piece of vinyl was found in a chicken mcnugget over the mouth and a childs a mouth was injured by plastic found in an ice cream sunday. along with the drop in sales, the troubles headlines have helped take a bite out of
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japan's bottom line. i wonder why? >> knotts lost on me, our producers are playing once bitten, twice shy. >> that's good. >> nicely put. >> all right. shares of mxp semiconductors get boost. combined to help cars communicate with smartphones and wearables and upping the investment in car connected software and technology. joining us now from the consumer electronics show in a cnbc exclusive is rick klemmer, the ceo and president of nxp. rick, always great to see you. >> nice to see you. thanks for having us. >> in terms of thinking what the opportunity here is, obviously getting more content into vehicles is an opportunity. there also an opportunity here in building out or helping to build out smart cities where cars can actually talk to infrastructure as well? >> they're absolutely. you know, our focus as a company is really focused on trying to drive the smarter world. a lot of people talk about the internet of things.
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we try to broaden that to include wearables, to include the connected car and talk about the smarter world. with the security leadership that we have we're a leader in the credit card, the chip that goes in the credit cards, the mobile payments, being able to leverage that security basis so that we can provide security or safe connections, which is really what the future is all about. so what we're focused on as a company is security connections for the smarter world which includes smarter cities and smarter living. and clearly smarter driving. >> the stat that really shocked me, rick, was this one, that the average semiconductor content rose at two times the rate of vehicle unit growth. for you, for nxp, how do you look at your growth relative to the overall market? will you have a faster growth in terms of content in a car? >> we are. you know, if you look at it, our automotive business is a fourth to a third of our total revenue.
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it's growing at very high single digit levels or our low double-digit levels. a and the reason that that is growing so much faster rate than the actual car production itself is the increased content. as you have more electronics in the content, we're the leader in the vehicle networking and being able to provide the capability for the communications associated with each of the electrical points. we're the leader in the remote keyless entry. and now going forward we're trying to bring that technology to make the cars smarter or really safer by providing the connected car, vehicle-to-vehicle communications so that you can communicate with other cars and know what schaap, what safety hazards that there are to reduce the number of accidents. you think about making a car safer, there is a number of factors associated with it there is the vision side, there is the radar side becoming ubiquitous. and then there is the vehicle-to-vehicle communications which we talked about today with our announcement. >> you know, when you take look at this space, it's certainly a
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growing one. it's an exciting time. how sticky is this? in other words, if you land placement in a vehicle, how are you -- are you able then to just hold on to that relationship? because it's just too hard to switch chips at that point. >> it is. the automotive industry has a track record of once you're there, you have that for a long time. if you look at mid and high-end car radios, we are the technology provider of choice for basically virtually all of those manufacturers. and so the ability to have that requires significant efforts and software for them to be able to transition or change. so for the foreseeable future, know multi years out we'll have that production associated with it. that's the reason we like the industry. it's very sticky. we know what the production rates are going to be. we know the profitability associated wit. it gives awes real advantage and reason why we're really driving a significant focus on automotive. >> in 2012-2013, you were the number one china auto semiconductor supplier.
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how will china growth compare to the united states, whether it be in items of revenue growth, but also in absolute dollars? >> so you know, it's -- china has represented a significant growth opportunity for us. in fact, if you look at our total revenue, about half of our revenue as a company is shipped into greater china. and we're, as as you said, the number one automotive semiconductor supplier. we're the number five worldwide. but with the focus that they have more on the car infotainment side which is really our strength puts us in a leadership position to be able to drive that we see much stronger growth. frankly, we see good growth around the world in the car industry. and we see the opportunities out in the future for even stronger growth with the opportunity to bring each more smarter features to the car and really make it more user friendly to continue to improve that. >> all right, rick. we're going to leave it there. thanks for your time. good to see you. >> okay. thanks, melissa. >> clemmer, the ceo of nxp
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semiconductor. this is a monster stock. >> when it first came on the scene was the emv technology and making the chip for all the security breaches. this was an exciting new angle for them with the car-to-car communications. so the chart looks great. i was concerned about china growth because it is responsible for about 50% of their revenues. he seemed to talk his way into buying the stock at these levels still. not even worried about china growth. i would still stay with the stock. the technology alone is the reason to buy this name. >> i asked about china and the stickiness to put the two together. if you think that it's number one in china and has been for a couple of years now, and it is sticky, then the chances of maintaining that lead might be higher than you might otherwise think. >> i'm a big believer in the whole auto trade globally but especially in emerging markets. these guys are dominating in that space. it is a sticky space. i think they're going to continue the hold on to. just because the stock up 70%, they're in a different phase of their growth than other companies we talk about like that. let's talk dick's sporting
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goods, soaring on reports it could be looking to go private. reportedly in talks with several buyout firms. karen finerman has the fine print on the one retailer she thinks is most ripe for a buyout. >> yeah, this is a name we have talked about a lot. it's actually become more ripe recently, and that is finish line, which has disappointing earning, disappointing guidance last month. and the stock got absolutely obliterated. what makes it attractive here, if you look at what it is trading versus where dicks is trading, finish line is trading if you back on the cash mane a 14ish multiple. it's trading at six times where dick's is closer to a 20 multiple, eight times ebitda. for an activist, it's not the best state out there. but you can do something. you could get some directors on a board if you wanted to do that. also, if they were to do something friendly, if they were to voluntarily do it, it doesn't matter which state you were incorporated, you have to get something done.
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there is a holy grail for a finish line would be a footlocker merger. it would be the be all, end all in the space. not that i think that happens. it would be phenomenal for both stocks. >> does footlocker need finish line, though? and it seems like the trend towards high end footwear. we saw it with basketball and the running shoes. it's getting watered down and becoming more about fashion. i don't know if foot logisticer needs to be there. >> footlocker might not need them. but how great to take out a competitor and more clout when you deal with a nike or who else you might deal with. nike might not be delighted, but it would be gigantic if they did do a finish line deal. coming up, the ten year falling for the eighth day in a row, down nearly 8% in the past week. we have the best ways, the two best ways to play the bond market from blackrock, right after that break. more "fast money" straight ahead.
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with just one click- with ziprecruiter. find candidates in any industry, nationwide. just post once and watch your qualified candidates roll in to ziprecruiter's easy to use interface. find out today why ziprecruiter has been used by over 250,000 businesses. they even offer a 100% satisfaction guarantee. and right now, you can try ziprecruiter, for free. go to ziprecruiter.com/free30 the fed minutes today failing to push bond yields into positive territory, the benchmark falling eight sessions
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in a row. lloyd blankfein weighing in. >> that interest rates can't go up highly over a short period of time. and as far as the disorderly nature, you know, at some point it doesn't become the fed's decision, it becomes the market's decision. once the fed starts to move, they may want to go in a measured, slow pace. but if i'm sitting there in the market and i know they're going at a measured, slow but inevitable pace, i'm going get there in five second. the market may get there way ahead of the fed. >> let's get insight from one of the leaders in the ef t-bond strategy. matt, great to have you with us. what are you seeing in terms of flows in or out of bond funds that might indicate how people are positioning ahead of what lloyd blankfein says? maybe a big move ahead of an
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actual change in rates? >> i think what you're seeing is investors really start to discern between short-term rates, which are much more impacted by the fed and longer term rates like 10-year and 30-year rates which are much more about the global economic picture, deflation, oil, what is happening in europe. if you look at short-term rates, i think definitely we expect those to start to rise throughout this year, asimov closer to the fed actually raising rates. but you're really going see the story play out where we can't just talk about interest rates. we have to talk about short-term like two-year interest rates or longer term ten or 30-year rates. we have different drives in this kind of market. >> hi, it's brian kelly. i'm curious in terms of a lot of people have talk about there is no liquidity. and lloyd mentioned it. the fact that people are going to get ahead of the fed within five seconds. we know dealer balance sheets have declined precipitously since the crisis. how are you guys prepared for that illliquidity. how would you handle that disorderly sell-off in the market? >> a couple of things. the story is right. the market generally is
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challenged, especially in the corporate bond market with trying to manage secondary liquidity. a lot of the trading that happens today happens with new issue. it happens with more on the run securities, older securities, more seasoned bonds are harder to trade. that's a challenge everybody faces. a lot of the things the market is doing to adapt is turning to fixed income itfs like i shares as a way to adapt to that. you have funds out there like the hyg. it holds over a thousand high yield bonds. it's been trade mortgage than $700 million every day on the exchange, and it's providing an alternate source of liquidity to help fill that gap left by the changes in market structure. circumstances there no concern so far about defaults in the energy space impacting the overall high yield space? can s that off the table? oh, it is a concern. but you still like hyg? >> a, it's diversified. you have over a thousand different securities in there. be, a lot of this is already
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priced in. you have issuers who are more in the refining space or the oil services trading down to prices in the 50s and 60s. so you get yield for that obviously. but a lot of it has been priced in. because the market, this is a great point made earlier, the market tends to get ahead of the news and anticipate what comes neck. if you look at high yield, you get 6 1/2,%. that makes a lot of sense for investors who are looking to add some yield. >> matt, great to speak you. thank you. mattitucker, blackrock. >> thank you. >> let's talk than. hyg. are you concerned? you're the one. >> sure. >> downstream we haven't really felt the impact yet. and therefore we haven't seen the pain. >> you saw a little bit of a taste of it in december when you saw the markets sell off. hyg sold off as well. so if you're looking for yield, you play it with utilities. you're not going to get the same default risk. so if you look at southern, which is a name i've been long forever you get that yield. you don't get the capital hit for the stock price. and you don't have to worry about the default risk. >> when i look at the treasury
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curve and look at global rates, there is no question that still there is so much relative value to pick up and yield. brian has talked about this. when we look at the disparity between the u.s. and germany, as much as i'm someone that said last year they go higher, i think queer in a very interesting kind of no move zone despite yesterday's move down to 188. all right. still ahead, oil still up. but one is betting it's not over. we're break do you think the options right after this break.
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oil seeing a rare update today, but some oil traders think it will be short-lived. mike khouw with the action. mike? >> we saw well over four times the average daily activity in ohi which is an oil service etf. what is interesting about today's trade we saw a large institutional trader take a bearish that they made back in december right around here when you could see the oih had declined precipitously and they're rolling that trade out. they sold the february put they owned and bought 30,000 of the april 30s, which is right down
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here. so since they paid a dollar and a quarter for that, you actually would need to see the oih fall below for that trade to be profitable. so you're looking at least another 15% decline from here if this trade is going to pay off. >> 15% decline? >> after what has already happened. that's huge. >> i mean, it could happen. listen, oil didn't trade well today. >> sure. >> and a lot of the other names didn't trade well either. whether you call it a demand or supply, you still have a supply overhang. >> if you look real quick the retracement on oil, i come up as support $42. i went all the way back to 1998. you see a level of $12 and run up to the 2008 level of $140. you draw your lines on the february retracement levels, you come up with $42. that matches up pretty much where mike is talking about. that's where you readjust and take a look. >> thanks a lot for that, mike. check out the 5:30 "options action" on friday. tomorrow night, we're very excited about this. we have a very special show.
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it is "fast money's" eighth anniversary on the air. >> get out of here! >> come on. >> ringing the closing bell here at the nasdaq market site. and we'll have all eight traders on the show for the very first time ever. each will give their best trading idea right now. if that's not enough, we also have carl icahn and vice chair michael burns. both will join us for live interviews. it all starts tomorrow at 5:00 here on "fast money." very special day. >> have we been together longer than "friends"? >> are we still friends? >> we've got your first read tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,
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domino's pizza. stay with it. >> remember, tomorrow is our eighth anniversary show. so you'll want to be here at 5:00 time without a doubt. meantime, jim cramer with "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job not just to entertain you but to educate you. call me or tweet me nicely @jimcramer. at last
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