tv Mad Money CNBC January 7, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EST
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pizza. stay with it. >> remember tomorrow is our eighth anniversary show. so you'll want to be here at 5:00 time without a doubt. meantime, jim cramer with "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job not just to entertain you but to educate you. call me or tweet me nicely @jimcramer. at last we have a rational stock
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market. for once the market reacted positively, not negatively to objectively good news and tempered its excessive negativity which is how the dow managed to rally 213 points and s&p climb 1.16% and nasdaq jump 2%. what do i mean by rational reactions to actual positives? how about concrete tips? i have argued that what is freaking people out and making them panic out of all stocks is not the downward direction of oil but the velocity of the move. i think oil can keep going lower because there is too much produced. when oil pauses in decline as it did today we see investors come out from the sidelines and rationally buy the stocks of companies that benefit from lower energy costs including the consumer package goods names, the retailers and restaurants.
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i'm going to give you a list that you love later in the show. for years the price of oil had been held up not by demand but by a cartel. opec. when a cartel is busted up that's good for all consumers, even as it is naturally terrible for the cartel. i need to get outside this whole oil thing and get you to understand this because it is driving me bonkers. let's say all the phone companies in the country went into a room and decided to fix your telephone bill so it is much higher than you pay. that would be a pretty bad thing for 317 million americans who use phones. just view oil as a once rigged market that gouged you, that is no longer being rigged. if your phone bill went up huge it would be fabulous for at&t verizon, t mobile and sprint and the companies that sell capital equipment and all of their
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employees. if you busted that cartel everyone's phone bill would go down. isn't that good news for the economy in general? even as all stocks get hammered i say it is a decent tradeoff even if you sell that. there has been a lot of commentary about lower oil prices being bad for the stock market. that would mean the cartel that conspired to keep oil up was actually a good thing for you. believe me it wasn't. would it be good if phone companies conspired to make it higher? today wecelebrated the destruction of the cartel. that's what today is a destruction of the cartel. that was the cartel that kept oil prices higher even than all other commodities that had already gotten hammered. the scales periodically fall from our eyes which is why
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forming a cartel is illegal virtually everywhere. somehow we convinced ourselves that the level of lower gasoline cost at the pump. today we recognize that many companies have to buy all sorts of petroleum based packages. how about the stuff in your kitchen and bathroom? do you think that shampoo is made of sweet smelling natural foods and grains? do you think diapers are cotton and paper? you think that a no deposit no return soda is made up of bio degradable materials? these are gigantic gobs of fossil fuels that are cheaper. talking about like all of those pauliess and ethyls that get made into different plastics and liquids. the cost of these are going
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down not up. these are the ones that were flying today. that's rational. how about individual sector. do you think j.c. penney would have generated the numbers if the oil cartel was conspiring to take a big chunk of your money? how about some perspective here? read it heard it, saw it. about the 756 people at u.s. steel who got laid off, wanted to help tubing. every job -- there are 116,000 people who work at j.c. penney. not that long ago we thought penny might go undertaking 116,000 jobs with it. it didn't. these people kept their jobs. it is rational rallying today. all the other retailers did, too. it's the additional $1,000 for
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each of the 117 million households in the country. 117 million households versus a small cartel. go with the households. more on those figures later. it is rational that some private equity companies could snare one at a cheap price. private equity guys know lower gasoline prices are good not bad, for bricks and mortar retailers and customers. no wonder someone rumored up dick's sporting goods today. raises eyebrows. it makes sense that dick's is under valued since stock is going down not up even though customers are feeling richer. how about the monster home building rally. some of that is increased builder confidence. mortgage rates are down and there are rumors of a possible cut in the federal housing authority fees which would be a huge huge win for the first
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time home buyers. fha if we have fees go down it is cheaper to buy a house. hence why companies who manufacture homes move up the most. the strong dollar has brought buyers into bond markets from weaker currency countries during this period which allowed mortgage rates to go to ultralow levels. because of fears of what a decline in oil really means we haven't even had a rally in home builders despite the fact that mortgage rates are so low. today we did. rational. you buy a home and furnish and improve your home. how about individual stocks? keurig green mountain has a new cold drink machine. coca-cola has a stake in the company. dr. pepper also endorsed the
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contraption. suddenly it has legs so the stock goes higher. if oil had plumted again today that stock would have been lower. the market has been nutty. today it was rational. earlier this week general motors reported december sales. big ticket yukons because oil cartel is smashed. gm stock has been hammered. we accepted that because everyone else was selling shouldn't we? it was great to see gm rallying today. rational. i don't know about you but i find there is something joyous about rationality. it is a reminder you want to buy stocks of companies that are beneficiaries. it is a reminder that the stock market is not moronnic as it can be as dumb as a bag of hammers on any given day. here is the bottom line. today's session was a reminder that you can make money by
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buying the thoughtless panic of others. buying from the panickers is one of the greatest most lucrative strategies known to man. i'm going to start with maria in the far away alaska. maria. >> caller: greetings, jim. maria from sunny alaska. the importance of technology in 2015. and micron technology seems to be a lone ranger. i would have thought it would have fired on earnings. why are reactions mixed and unclear on what seems to be a solid earnings report? i don't know if any of this could be attributed to a lack of clarity in the company's conference call and wanted your take on it. >> micron. >> caller: micron. >> i went to that conference call and said how could they be so negative at the top and be defensive and answer every question positively.
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i think if micron were there i would have picked up the flag. that never happens in football. that is exactly what i would have done because they screwed up the penalty. it was their fault. if they had done the conference call correctly they would be in the playoffs and the stock would have been higher. phil in california. >> caller: hey, jim. siri buy, sell or hold? >> a very positive note out that i like. they are a car play. rationally people are buying more cars. wow. we are short cars. i think i like siri. can i go to curtis in the tar heel state? >> caller: good evening. how are you? >> what's shaking? >> caller: i'm calling about the railroads. i'm long all the railroads.
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anything that they might lose in the crude transports 2% or 3% of the time is more than made up of savings of diesel fuel they have to buy. >> more importantly they are hurt by coal. natural gas has been plummeting as fast as oil. natural gas is really the absolute worst problem as a competitor to coal. and that means the rails sippically suffer a little. they'll come back though. remember panic doesn't pay but staying focused when everyone else is flipping out is great strategy. it's almost tax time. obamacare can make it a brutal filing season. h&r block says it is all hands on deck. cheap gas is putting the oil patch in the house of pain. it's also causing serious fuel
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this is the first year we are going to have to jump through the hoops of the affordable care act when you file your tax return. while that is going to be a huge pain for millions of americans it is terrific news for h&r block. i think that obamacare represents huge opportunity for h&r block and for the next months the business should get a major boost. that is why the company is holding an affordable care act q&a day at all 10,000 offices where anyone can walk in and get free advice.
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i went positive h&r block. the company announced it would be selling off its internal bank business. this would allow h&r block to stop being classified as a holding company. the transaction pushed back by the regulators in february. let's check in with the president and ceo of h&r block. welcome to "mad money." good to see you. >> thanks for having me back. >> you have to explain which is the better opportunity for you, the idea that people might be giving money away or that they might have to pay a penalty if they screw it up. >> it is both sides of the house. about 7 million people signed up on the exchanges. they are going to receive a form. they have to come in and reconcile that. i think i talked to you about this as advanced tax credit and
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not subsidy. that's about 7 million people. there is another 20 million who remain uninsured in this country. the law says you have to have insurance which means for the tax return which is the great mystery that will be unravelled that you have to come in and eeither pay a penalty or take on one of 33 exemptions. there are a lot of exemptions that are available if you are incarcerated religious affiliation. we can help anybody with all of those exemptions and working through them. >> your pitch which i think we had was really about the money being given away. take a look. >> america, last year we did not get you million back we got billions back. so many we started thinking this isn't tax season this is refund season. and nobody gets more of your
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money back than block guaranteed. get your billions back america! >> jim, get your billions back america, and calling it refund season applies to everybody. even for those affected by the affordable care act our job is to maximize your refund. we want to do an accurate tax return. >> i have tried to understand this act. i know that to train people it will cost you more money. how much more will it cost up front to have all people able to understand how to do tax impact analysis for someone versus last year? >> we don't disclose the exact number but we have added seven hours of specific training. we have hired more tax pros than we ever had before. we now have over 10,000
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bilingual tax pros throughout the country because we know this has a disproportionate impact on the latino community. this has cost us more money. a lot of people talk about the opportunity we have. there are expenses associated. >> i know your real competition is the mom and pop outfits. do you think people will be scared to go to them because this is so complicated that maybe they think i have to go to h&r block? >> that is our belief. this is going to be an easy thing for the irs to catch. you have the 1095 a. they know those people if you don't file a return or if you don't have insurance that will be known. people have to be weary of doing an accurate tax return. >> once you bring people in is this the first you you think we can reverse the pattern of more people going digital because it is so complicated you 92 ed to speak to a human? >> a lot of people think that. it has been pretty consistent
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about 60% of the world wants help and about 40% of the world does it yourself. the change in do it yourself is 50 million are now digital. we participate in 100% of the market. our principle is to allow clients to pick the way they are to have taxes prepared. >> you can generate a lot of cash. i know that you have said on the show that you are anxious. do we have clarity about the offset here? >> i mean it has been over a year and i have said we can scratch our head all we want. regulators have been fair and thorough and said they need more time. i'm taking them at their word. we believe on the merits this is going to be approved but is taking longer. >> that is fair. you have been very up front about that. you are saying it is going to happen when it happens. >> exactly. >> thank you so much. i think this is a great story. a lot of ways to win, not just
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affordable care act but one day this bank will no longer be a part of the company. stay with cramer. coming up speaking of taxes, the lower price at the pump has provided a rebate for consumers across the country. where are these extra bucks going to pop up next? cramer's got a list of the stocks ready to profit from the gas fuel wind fall.
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next time we have a panic selloff like we saw monday and tuesday you need to remember what happened today. remember that when the market regains its senses it loves the retail and restaurant stocks because people got out more and spend more when they are paying less at the pump. it is called disposable income. it goes to these companies when not going to exxon, chevron, bp. investors were namerred before oil fell off the cliff. now that the all consuming panic over falling oil prices has subsided buyers are going gagafor the group all over again because the price at the pump has been cut in half. heating bills have plummeted and propane. cohorts are facing easy
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comparisons. it doesn't hurt that the retailers don't need to worry about the strong dollar. so many are benefitting from cheaper imports because the dollar is so strong. if the past three days have taught us anything it is when the whole market gets crushed by oil prices you want to buy retailers and restaurant stocks because the group snaps right back as we saw today. just buy an etf. that isn't our style here. when you own an index you take the good with not so good and maybe the bad. why do that when you can pick the best of the best. mad money is trying to help you figure out what you think is the best. i want to go through these two cohorts and give you the shopping list of the best names to buy. let's start with the restaurants. they should be getting disproportionate share as well as a shot in the arm from the consumer. which stocks make the cut?
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this is just using garden variety names so you can get comfortable with the ones you like to buy when oil goes down and they sell off everything. we are going to start with buffalo wild wings. it is always under estimated. this stock has become a playground for hedgefunds. with buffalo wild wings these hedge funds should have been focused more on the crowds watching sporting events at this company's beer and wing joints not to mention the sheer amount of beer surf which is where the real money is. the company's got a lot of room to expand and a rapid fan base. it is really a terrific proxy for the consumer. the stock trades at 31 times earnings which is expensive.
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speaking of expensive how about this one? chipotle. chipotle is never cheap. i have never seen it be cheap. why should it be cheap? chipotle is the best hence why a rally in 2014 a monster 28.5% gain on the strength of highest same store sales growth of any restaurant. i can't say the stock didn't skip a beat as it traded down to 477 last spring when management failed to raise expectations as much as wall street wanted. aided by restaurant leveling food that allowed more customers to chow down at lunch. i think the company still has room to put up many more chipotles and this could be the year when we start seeing growth in southeast asian kitchen. that is another extension of theirs i happen to like. the company did get dinged by
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food costs epelshly avocadoes and beef. we know this company is benefitting from the biggest team out there. it is the food that is natural and organic. i think that trend is accelerating. after the run where it rallied $30 i recommend waiting for a break in the stock price. i think the next quarter chipotle's raw costs are about to head lower. oil is going to go down and you can snap it up. my third restaurant pick a little controversial. it's cracker barrel. i'll admit as a veteran customer of this chain i'm not a huge fan cholesterol wise. i feel like popping a lip tore before and after. prides itself on dishes like apple pie with cheese alamode. the company has a fabulous set
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of road side locations. next up is dino. seen stock rise to 106. this company is led by julius stewart. it's working. you know what else is working? dine equity's beautiful franchise model which spews cash. given the stock just made a new high today once again i suggest you put it on your shopping list and wait for it to get dinged the next time oil sells off and the whole stock market rolls over and it will as there is a bottomless pot of coffee at ihop. the $1.5 billion fiesta restaurant group.
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fiesta had a volatile year in 2014. it worked its way up. what i like is it has two concepts that caught fancy of customers. the former is expanding with regional national growth trajectory. start getting to know ceo tim cafwho put this chain on the map and is ready to accelerate expansion. company putting up new locations aggressively. for my last domestic restaurant stock let's say i know jack. i'm talking about jack in the box. the best performer of the group last year from $49 to $79 in 2014 and after today's rally climbed to $83 and change. i told david faber this stock is the key to the market. i think jack in the box can go
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higher which is why i think it will be a terrific buy. the company's big winners thanks to a terrific remodeling effort. i'm far more excited about jack's mexican division. getting the change to turn around. i think jack should do with qdoba what mcdonald's did with chipotle. jack would become the burger joint to own. here is the bottom line. all of these restaurant stocks work today because today for once the market's action is rational. we know these stocks work when the panic subsides. that's why i want you to put them on the shopping list and wait for the next market selloff as oil goes lower which could happen any day now. when everyone is panicky again that will be the moment.
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stay tuned to hear about my favorite retailers. why don't we start with howard in new york? >> caller: howard here from the green mountain state of vermont. longtime fan. >> i was thinking about mexico where i was last week. what's going on? >> caller: question the lower cost of oil and gasoline and the rise in air travel and the value of airline stocks does it make sense to look at investing in companies that rent cars like hertz? >> my problem with hertz i always say when the book "real money" came out i'm watching avis not hertz. the numbers there until they are blessed we willsy no to htz. steve in connecticut? >> caller: booyah professor cramer. >> i always like the tenure. what's happening.
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>> caller: my company is diageo. had a great run up through 2012 or so. it had a great run up. since then i have kind of been house of pain a little bit drinking johnny walker on my linoleum floor. just wondering your thoughts. >> the chinese cracked down and that's been why it has been a total house of pain. you need to be in consolation brands. 52 all-time high today. got to tell you rob has put together a company that is corona and mu dello. that is why rob's constellation brands go to 110. oil is paying, consumers staying. it is putting serious fuel behind a platter of restaurant stocks. i like jack on a potential breakup. there is much more "mad money"
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ahead including nine retail stocks you need to have. can potential layoffs in the oil field bring down the entire economy? and your calls coming up in a brand new edition of the lightning round. hi. pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. so we put our secrets into a new book. and if you're one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling we'll send you a copy for free. look at the rate of return we've made on some of our recent options trades versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. there's no comparison. to make the best returns in today's market, you have to learn how to trade options. and our book will show you
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today in part because j.c. penney posted a spectacular return mostly because the markets finally come to the senses about the positive impact of falling gasoline prices i think you absolutely need a shop in this retail stock that you can circle back to the next time we get a hideous oil selloff. which retailer should you think about owning? the prism is simple. you want domestic plays because with europe and asia looking ugly the best retailers are u.s.-based companies that can't be knocked over by the likes of amazon. let's start with an automobile retailer car max. i realize this used car and truck dealer may not strike your fancy. cheaper gasoline makes older vehicles a lot more attractive
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health care company happens to be a food and drugstore chain. let's round things out with a doctor dollar store. which one. it is not easy -- i shop more at dollar tree than dollar general. i prefer the stock because i see it going higher regardless of whether it succeeds in acquiring family dollar or not. it has been a big benfishiary of lower gasoline prices because the percentage of disposable income is much more meaningful.
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i like dollar general's private label strategy too. the big deal is to take over fdo which has a ton of room to improve. fifth, home depot. i think we can see major improvements in housing starts this year thanks to lower mortgage rates. the company has a terrific buyback and consistent ability to get more dollars out of each store continues to amaze especially with percentage going to home improvement remains below historical average. i love chairman and ceo. i will miss him. i expect to see you on the show after the first quarter. supermarkets are natural winners which is why i like kroger. this company is the strongest same store sales in the industry. kroger has the best natural organic store. the company bought vita cost a
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successful vitamin supplement retailer. seventh retailer l brands the company behind victoria's secret, bath and body works. it's a credit to the legendary ceo that defines the odds in the shopping mall. wall street underestimates the same store sales which provide the fuel for so many upside surprises. restoration hardware had a monster move after reporting the latest quarter a move you may find daunting. some regard the same store sales. others question whether they can maintain the 53% increase in profits. others can't get their arms around paying 39 times earnings for a relatively unseasoned company. i say forget all of that. the ceo is the real deal. a chain that unlike any other is
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more a destination. when customers get there they open wallets like nowhere else. restoration sells super premium home goods. and it does so in these amazing mansions that they open. they are more like blockbuster movies and stores. hence the movie poster. the movie poster -- right after each each -- especially when you can use the strong dollar. a big discount. this may be the best strong dollar play out there. i love those italian fabrics. i think williams sonoma is a winner. after the runup wait for pullback. probably won't have to wait long given panicky nature.
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the ceo does so many things right. quarter after quarter people seem shocked by her excellence whether the flagship chain for kitchen and foot wear or furniture and home decor. you have a triple play for a moment when disposable income will make outhouses more livable. williams sonoma is an aspirational retailer. consider bed bath and beyond. the company's mild mannered ceo and prices they don't promote those at all. let me give you the bottom line. remember the nine retailers the next time the price of oil falls through the floor and takes the market down with it. these domestic retail names benefit from cheaper gasoline. one big note of caution. these stocks do not buy them tomorrow. wait for oil to plummet again. only then should you make your move. "mad money" is back after the break.
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round". play this sound and then "the lightning round" is over. are you ready? it is time for "the lightning round." si in ohio. >> caller: hi mr. cramer how are you? booyah to you? >> how are you? >> caller: northrop grumman? >> really good. joyce in texas. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. my stock is acc. >> we like that one very much. it is coming back. i really like it. it can go higher. how about chris in tennessee? chris? >> caller: booyah. got a stock for you you recommended a few years ago. i'm up 170%. i don't know if i should hold it
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forever. >> it is a consolidated industry. that is what we like about it. i think that it goes higher. i wouldn't sell it. >> thanks for your support of military veterans. >> absolutely. primary. >> canadian national railroad has one of the lowest operating ratios and coal is only 7% of transports, wouldn't this railroad be the preferred one to own? >> the answer is yes. people feel canada is slowing down because of oil. i think you want to avoid a lot of coal exposure. ellis in arkansas. ellis? >> jim, booyah. >> booyah. >> caller: i want to ask the question when will it split? >> i don't know when the ceo will split it. i think the stock can go substantially higher because they make paint. they have a terrific terrific
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plastics business. chuck bunch runs a great company. i think the stock is stuck right here in the low 200s. i need to go to dan in washington. >> hi mr. cramer. greetings from our nation's capitol. >> good to have you. >> caller: looking at quaalcomm. >> i prefer intel. i don't want that chinese exposure. i know they may end up winning the chinese issues. i feel intel is a better by. and that ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of "the lightning round." >> "the lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade.
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ponder this. what if the federal government were to give everyhousehold a $1,000 tax break? what if washington rebated $1,000 to all households in this country? first, can you imagine the anger at the government? it would reverse the shrinkage of the budget deficit. take it to 2.8% of gross domestic product. you would be headed back to the deficit levels that were three times higher. the government would have to increase borrowing or raise taxes or cut spending away. we would be back in the old
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soup. second some argue the tax break would do nothing to the u.s. economy or consumer's budget. only a rich person would be that insensitive. what is $1,000? it is 1.3% of the average household disposable income. what if i told you every household could get that without the government paying for it? that is the savings from the massive decline in oil prices. roughly one-sixth comes from persian gulf nations. another comes from non-opec trading partners. the amazing $1,000 rebate comes from these entities. we actually want to bear the costs since they won the gains for years and years. that's the math of it people. let's put this rebate in the context of the federal reserve which said it is keeping rate
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hikes on hold. the fed has been trying to get average american's disposable income to increase. the fed can't cut taxes or raise wages. it can't lower your cost of living. opec and the non-state producers of oil can. we used to speak of the ill-gotten gains of the oil companies. we call them wind fall profits. now we have savings for you, the average household shaving off $1,000 from the average $2,912 you spend every year on gasoline last year. that's a big increase in disposable income. when gasoline was twice as expensive as it is now it amounted to 4%. instead of the budget deficit expanding you get the magnificent rebate from the saudis. and exon chevron, conoco shell and smaller companies. some can afford it and some can't.
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the $1,000 comes to households in perhaps the most benign way possible. even though capital expenditures would be ample and layoffs concentrated concentrated. 1% of the job growth comes from the oil industry. 1% of the growth. sadly, here is the chatter we are getting. we hear the decline will crush. people fret about oil companies going bust and the fed not standing up to the possible slow down that we need inflation. what a ridiculous dialogue. so far just one tiny oil company has gone bust. so far 700 people have been laid off in steel company. some see big cuts in orders and there will be a lot of firing. isn't it crazy to accentuate the negative when we have such an enormous positive. $1,000 in profits coming to households in 2015 who need it more than ever given the salary
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increases. i say the crimping of domestic oil industry is a small price to pay for this rebate to 117 million households that were spending way too much at the pump just six months ago. stick with cramer. attention n investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter better trading decisions with ctorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,... ...and gives you clear buy, sell, hold recommendations... ...on every stock; anytime, anywhere.
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talked a lot tonight about retailers. i want you to be clear on this. i don't want you buying them tomorrow. all those stocks are huge ben beneficiarys when the market recaptures its rally. i don't think dick's is necessarily going to go private. there is so much chatter. i think dick's is inexpensive stock. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it for you here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow!
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>> look, scarface was a gangster, but that [bleep] was fiction. [bleep] charles cosby -- that [bleep] a living legend. that [bleep] the real scarface [bleep] that dude was flipping down. >> ♪ i'm the godfather, head honcho ♪ ♪ married to the game like griselda blanco ♪ ♪ put the keys in the closet in my condo ♪ ♪ bulletproof vest on my chest like poncho ♪ >> ♪ incredible ♪ >> ♪ i clap like an encore ♪ ♪ for the right price, i'll turn you to a john doe ♪ ♪ went from a bronco to the bentley keys ♪
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