not the oil market tests and moves through. and if it does, we may see some of the steam come out of this market. >> all right, sue, thank you very much. and we talked last hour about some of the oil stocks that may be at buying opportunity prices. we're going to talk about that as well on "street signs" where i'm in for brian. sue, thanks a lot. >> that's right. i'll see you tomorrow. have a good show, guys. >> you bet. and "street signs" begins right now. please make up your mind, markets, after sulking in the corner for the start of the year, stocks once again the life of the party, as we saw a moment ago, crude oil is finding a bit more of a firmer footing these last couple of days. welcome, everybody, to "street signs." i'm mandy drury, tyler, as you said, you're sitting in for brian sullivan who is off on a much-deserved vacation. >> i'm happy to be here with you guys. it's a pleasure especially on a very nice day in the markets. let's take a look at where the averages stand right now. with a little less than two hours left in trading today, the

stocks are moving up. the dow with about a 1.5% gain. it was up more than 300 points, now a little bit off of that at 17853. the nasdaq higher and really the standout here among the major barometers, up nearly 1.75%. that's a nearly 80-point gain. and the s&p 500 higher by 31 at 2056. again, about a 1.5% gain. let's take a look at oil, which is weakening just a bit as it heads into the close, as you see, now down 85 cents a barrel at $47.83. >> and we'll bring you the settled prices at the bottom of the hour. meantime, happening now, paris is dimming the lights on the eiffel tower to honor the victims of yesterday's horrific attack on a french satirical magazine. one suspected gunman is in police custody while two others remain at large. cnbc's hadley gamble is live for us in paris. and hadley, what is the latest in the hunt for these killers? >> reporter: well, mandy, this is undoubtedly the most

elaborate manhunt in french history. we have 88,000 or more security personnel scouring the country for these two wanted men. essentially what we know now is the police have been going village to village, neighbors to neighbors, through farms into forests. one forest apparently the size of -- twice the size of manhattan. we understand that police in full riot gear were barrelling down back-country roads all day today, searching for these suspects. a little bit of background on these guys, what we know about them so far, we understand that they are french citizens. they are brothers. they are in their early 30s. we understand that the french intelligence circles have known about these guys for quite some time before the attacks. we understand one of the brothers has also been convicted of terrorist charges in the past as well. we also understand that there are at least nine other people in custody for questioning. now, we also understand, of course, that a third suspect already overnight, last night, turning himself in to police after having heard about all of this on the radio.

we have a bit more information, of course, on what the government is planning to do. we've heard from francois hollande earlier today saying these guys will be brought to justice. elsewhere in paris, we're wrapping up what's been a heavy day of national mourning. people have gathered once again in the public. they're holding up pens in sol later with the journalists who were killed just a few blocks from where i'm standing. >> hadley gamble reporting for us from paris tonight. mandy? thank you very much. okay. let's turn to the markets and see if we can find you some opportunity. that's what we do best here on "street signs," right? so could now be the most opportune time to get into these three things behind me? first of all, stocks, then housing, and also oil. so we're going to tackle each one of those individually over the next hour, right, ty? let's kick off with stocks here. joining us is chad morganlander of steeping, mark tepper, founder of steeple partners.

you think now is not the best time to get into stocks but it's also not the best time to sell either. >> right. yeah, i don't know to state the obvious, but obviously it would have been a much better time to get in two years ago, five years ago. we can't rewind the clock. we do not think it's a time to sell right now. unfortunately we're at the tail end of the bull market and upside gains from here are somewhat limited. but the markets still should have a pretty good 2015. we think there are some good economic tailwinds behind us. and we would expect positive returns out of the market over the course of this year, probably high single digits. so we are not selling right now. we are overweight u.s. stocks at this point. and we have no intention of scaling back to neutral or underweight, but we're definitely not allocating more chips towards u.s. stocks today. >> all right, chad. where do you stand on this? react to what mark just said and give us some ideas on where to put money to make money. >> yeah, okay. so that month and a half ago, we went from overweight equities to neutral. we do believe that there will be

positive returns within the s&p 500 for next year and into the next 18 months. but nonetheless, we want to be a little more pragmatic within the financial system. we want to move up the quality spectrum. consumers you want to buy are consumer discretionary, consumer staples as well as pharmaceutic pharmaceuticals. as value investors, we have a couple names that we like and we think we can get 10% to 15% returns in. so on the mega cap technology names, ciscos and the oracles as well as ebay seem like an opportunity. when you look at discretionary names, the walmarts, the tj maxxes as well as the targets of the world. you can get good returns over the next 6 to 12 months within these opportunities. you have to be somewhat more pragmat pragmatic. we're going to see a shift here between the high-momentum stocks that we've enjoyed the great returns over the last 24 months to more low-momentum stocks. >> all righty.

mark, what areas of the market do you like? >> we really like consumer finance stocks right now. so, you know, i think there's a couple things working to benefit consumer finance stocks. number one, we're expecting income to go up. and number two, we're expecting expenses to go down. as far as income goes, the labor market really has stabilized over the course of the last several months. and with the steadiness in the labor market, we're expecting that wage growth should improve over the course of the next few years. which does help consumers because they have additional income at that point. as far as expenses going down goes, you know, obviously the cost of gas being, you know, maybe 2 bucks or so a gallon right now is a huge, huge tax cut for the american consumer. really gives about an extra 1.5% of disposable income to the average consumer right now. so that should flow back through to consumption which really drives the economy. and when you see spending

increase, there's also an increase in demand for consumer credit as well. so we're expecting the increase in income and the decrease in expenses to benefit the consumer finance companies by lowering delinquency rates and also increasing demand for credit. >> and since we brought up the topic of lower gasoline prices helping consumers, chad, in a very macro sense, how much do you expect equities over the next few months to still be very correlated with the price action of crude prices? >> well, we do believe that to be the case, but nonetheless, we still do believe that markets can go higher with crude going a bit lower here. so our expectation is that crude can go down another 5% in the coming months. but yet you could still get positive returns within the equity markets. the crude price dropping is really a global macro situation. you are seeing a deceleration of global growth, in particular within asia and china. so 6.5% gdp as opposed to 7.5% gdp that everyone's forecasting could be in the cards for 2015.

>> are either of you looking at europe, and what would make you if you're not? >> absolutely. >> go ahead, quick thought. >> i'm absolutely looking within europe. i'll tell you, okay, for 2015, gdp in the eurozone should be roughly about .5% to 25%. keep in mind that inflation data that's actually deflation, that can continue to hamper the eurozone over the course of not only this year but also in 2016. >> chad and mark, thank you very much for your thoughts at the top of your show. >> thank you. let's go to dominic chu for a "news alert." >> mandy, tyler, what we have right now is the mueller report on the ray rice elevator incident, again, it's finally concluded. and the main conclusion of the investigation from former fbi director robert mueller is that, quote, we found no evidence that anyone at the nfl had or saw the in-elevator video before it was publicly shown. we also found no evidence that a woman at the nfl acknowledged any kind of receipt of that

video in a voicemail message on april 9th of 2014. they go on to say that we concluded there was substantial information about the incident even without the video indicating the need for a more thorough investigation. the nfl should have done more with the information it had and should have taken additional steps to obtain all available information about the february 15th incident. so again, the bottom line, mandy, tyler, the robert mueller report says that they found the nfl had no -- had seen no evidence that the nfl had or saw that video of ray rice with the elevator, guys. back over to you. >> dominic chu, thank you very much for that "news alert." one down, two to go, ty. we're about to ask this question. is now a good time for you to get into housing? we've got a panel of real estate experts joining us with their take shortly. and later, we are going to look for big opportunities in beaten-down oil stocks. we've got some names you might want to consider. and speaking of oil, we're seeing big selling pressure as we near the close for crude. we're headed live to the oil

pits in new york when "street signs" returns. female announcer: get beautyrest, posturepedic,

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starting this month, the federal housing authority will lower its mortgage insurance premium rates enough to save the average new borrower more than $900 a year. >> president obama talking up housing earlier today in phoenix. the president is cutting the annual mortgage premiums paid to the federal housing administration, the fha, t

to .85%. those premiums currently stand at 1.5 35%. the white house hopes it will bring first-time homebuyers back into the market. sticking with housing, with rates so low, could real estate be another big buying opportunity in 2015? let's ask tim ruud and rick charga, executive vp with auction.com. rick, let's start with you. what do you think? is housing a good place to put some money this year? >> there's probably never been a better time to buy a house if you have cash or you're one of the fortunate few that can actually get financing. interest rates are near historic lows. home prices haven't fully recovered from the boom and bust cycle. the institutional investors are backing out a little bit. and frankly, this time of year, there's just less buying competition. and sellers tend to be more willing to negotiate. yeah, it's a really good time to buy a house right now. >> i think you agree with that, tim. who would have thought we'd be back down here in terms of mortgage rates. i think for a 30-year fixed, we're sitting at 3.73%, isn't

that near the historic lows of may 2013? >> yeah, it's staggering. if you think about a cautionary tale, i'd say we're a little spoiled. and listening to the president's speech, i couldn't tell if it was bill clinton or george w. bush, but i can tell you the american dream is back because i've never seen the president so excited about housing. and certainly now is a fantastic time to buy, values are still down off of the historic highs. rates are unprecedented. you're never going to pick the bottom in housing, but you're never going to be afforded an opportunity to pick up a 30-year fixed. i think there's a ton of good reasons to buy for sure. >> tim, you say the american dream is back. but at the same time, to what degree are we also bringing back credit risk? when we hear the fha, down payment, minimum 3.5% plus cutting the annual mortgage insurance premiums? i mean, to what degree is that introducing a whole new level of risk? >> yeah, well, that's certainly a consideration. i'm of the mind that anything you can do to remove economic

barrier questioning to responsible borrowers is great. that's really the only last legitimate wealth creation opportunity for most americans. but when the president says responsible borrowers, i'm not sure what that means because if the guy lost his job, which is 70% of the reason why someone defaults, is that responsible or irresponsible? and as it relates to right now, the government taking on more credit risk, we look back at the housing crisis. we say man, we don't want that to repeat itself. don't forget, back then, the gse, fannie mae and freddie mac, fha had about a 45% market share. now they've got a 95% market share. we'd better be doing this eyes wide open. >> i'm not sure all people would agree with your statement that housing is the last remaining path to wealth creation in america. particularly after the decade we've come through. rick, i guess i begin to worry along that same line when so many people seem to all be saying the same thing. money is cheap. it is stable. we're making housing available to more people.

but we didn't learn the lessons of the past crash. and that is exactly what it was, rick. >> no, i do think we've learned the lessons of the last crash. i'm more concerned about what lessons we haven't learned yet that might surprise you next time. >> why do you say that? why do you say we have learned them if we're making housing available to, again, low down payments with virtually -- the insurance premiums are going down. why? >> there's a lot of history that shows that a low down payment by itself is not an indication that you're going to have higher than average default rates. if you have a low down payment, a bad fico score, a lousy job record and other economic criteria that factor in, then you're asking for trouble. but if you have somebody with a 750 fico score who has a stable job, money in the bank, and just doesn't have a big down payment amount, the risk is actually pretty manageable. i think when you look at the ability to repay rules that are

in place because of the qm mortgage rules, some of the cfpb regulations in place, the tight underwriting standards, lenders really aren't taking on any risk at all. in fact, the pendulum swung way to the conservative side really hasn't swung back much yet. so i don't think you're seeing reckless lending right now. i don't expect we'll see that in the foreseeable future. >> very quickly, what would you say the lessons we have not learned yet? >> what i'm saying is the unknown is what scares me. we've come out of a crisis, make fixes and then we find truly novel ways to screw things up again in the future. i don't know what those are just yet. >> i do it every day. thank you guys. tim, rick, appreciate it. >> history has a habit of repeating itself. >> in my life, definitely. we are rounding out our buying bonanza with some big opportunities in the oil patch when we return. an analyst joins us with his top picks. as we head to the break, let's look at all those 30 dow

stocks. i can't see any red whatsoever out there, ty. >> whoa! >> at the highs of the day, we were above 300 points. oil, of course, is also moving lower into the close. that close, by the way, is going to be very shortly, at the bottom of our hour. we'll be right back. so no set up fees! wooh! yeah! so i get help from rollover consultants? wooh! yes! no rollover hassle. great. woah oh, we're spiking things, robbie. for all the confidence you need. that's better! td ameritrade. you got this.

welcome back to "street signs." i'm julia boorstin. fcc chairman tom wheeler now says he's in line with president obama's recommendations on net neutrality to re-regulate the internet as a public utility. his original proposal would have allowed internet providers to charge for fast-lane service. this stricter regulation would ban internet service providers from blocking or slowing down certain sites or apps and from charging companies for prioritization. internet providers who have fought to maintain full control over the rates they charge will likely oppose this, but it could be a win for netflix and others who stream lots of video. they would have to pay for fast lanes. those companies argue it would hamper start-ups' growth. wheeler did leave the door open for some paid prioritization, so just for emergencies, but a vote on the final regulation is scheduled for late february. tyler, over to you. >> thank you. we've already talked about the buying opportunities there may be in stocks, broadly, and

in housing, more specifically. so now let's dive in on energy. is now the time to get into some of the beaten-down oil or oil-related names? richard tulles is an energy analyst at capital one. richard, welcome. it's good to have you with us. what do you say here? i mean, you can't get too cute trying to pick the absolute low in a commodity. >> thanks, tyler, i appreciate the opportunity to be on. i agree with you. i'm not ready to call the bottom in oil prices yet. we still have the questions of the oversupply in the u.s. but i will say that there's opportunities out there, and it is a good time to be looking at oil stocks. i think investors should focus on names that don't require significantly higher oil prices to work. >> when you say specific names, would it be safer to go for an etf like the xle? the xle sort of hit bottom last year, sort of around, i think,

october 15th. and it's come back -- sorry, excuse me, sorry, bottomed around mid-december. it's a little bit higher than where it was there, but would you go for individual names, or would you buy into an etf like that? >> currently i'd go with individual names, mandy. i think the index would work if we get a rally in oil prices, in that case all the stocks most likely would work, in particular the most leveraged, beaten-up names. given the current commodity environment and we're seeing some stabilization in oil prices over the last two days, i think you want to go with names that are going into this with strong balance sheets, still show some production growth over the next year to two years and still have good upside even using commodity prices close to the current futures. >> so these are ones that you said earlier do not depend necessarily on rising oil prices to do well. we just put up a list of your buys. why don't you pick one of that list that you would call sort of a classic choice of yours right

now and explain why? >> i like concho in particular. it's a proven operator in the permean given the multiple opportunities for drilling there. concho has a long track record, a very strong balance sheet. i think they'll take this opportunity to seek out acquisition opportunities. not necessarily companies but additional acreage to high grade and i still think that they will generate strong production growth over the next two years. >> are there any names that you would absolutely avoid, richard? >> well, none in particular, but anyone with awful balance sheet, unhedged, you're probably looking at names that are four times debt to ebitda for 2015, 2016. those are the sort of names that you probably want to start avoiding. >> all right, leverage is often the thing that does them in, doesn't it, richard? thank you very much. appreciate you being with us. richard tullis of capital one.

let's get straight to jackie deangelis is the the nymex. it's interesting. we had a good day tore crude yesterday. we're sliding into the close here. what's going on? >> reporter: that's right. very interesting action in the pits today in terms of oil. you know, the last few days we've been marking the correlation between oil prices and the stock market. today they're diverging. we are seeing crude prices down as the stock market rallies. wti is at $48.43, down about 24 cents and brent $50.57. everyone watching that $50 mark for a settle under that point. of course, the overall sentiment right now is still pretty much bearish on prices because nothing has really changed in terms of the fundamentals. but i do want to point out as you were discussing with your guest, what the market may be thinking here about energy stocks, i have some data to share with you from morningstar that oil etfs saw $1.1 billion in inflows in the month of december in 2014. that was about 68% of the total

money that went into those funds for the entire year. from january 1st to january 7th, we saw another $376 million come in. so the question that we're asking right now is is this the right time to be buying those etfs? could oil prices potentially go lower from here, and really how long does it take before that investment starts to pay off, and how much pain will some investors have to endure if prices do go down? now, the general consensus out there is that we may see a little bit more pressure. maybe $45. maybe $40. even the high 30s. but a lot of people are saying that prices will rebound into the back half of the year to the $60, $70 level. so the question is about timing. and very, very difficult, obviously, to call a bottom in these prices. but as i mentioned, the data shows that the investors are starting to get in now, guys, back to you. >> all right, jackie d., thank you very much, reporting on the oil close. ahead, it was the best of times. it was the worst of times for the american economy. so what the dickens is it? we'll debate the tale of two economies next. but first, the five big

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welcome back. there's a big market rally going on today.

and you know what? by my calculations, ty, the dow, the nasdaq and the s&p with their gains today, and now all positive for the year. the nasdaq and the s&p, i mean, literally just squeaking into break-even territory. >> it's early yet, though. it's early yet. give me positive for the year when it's december, i'll feel a lot better about it. nevertheless. >> you're right, it is early. >> considering how we began the year, it's not a bad place to be. >> let's look at oil. literally about a minute's time going to be closing. we've actually come back into positive territory. look at that. we dipped down, v-shaped recovery. now just positive by about 17 cents on crude and we'll give you the actual close, the settled price, very shortly. let's do something we do every day at this time. >> you're going to be be gentle with me, aren't you? >> okay. this is the five analyst calls or stocks you need to know about today. kick it off for us. >> we start with eli lilly, upgraded from buy to hold at jefferys. >> to 80 bucks it's currently sitting right now just above 70.

they're seeing market expansion and also 2016 catalysts that look, quote, too good to miss. it's up about 36% over the past year. >> yeah, look at that. and stiffle downgrading google which has had a rough year over the past year. but why would anybody downgrade google? everybody uses google every day. this is a company that performs well. but wall street hasn't loved it. >> yeah, doesn't it have, like, 75% of the search market share or something like that? the class "a" shares hitting a 52-week low today and on track for their worst eight-day losing streak since 2010. they don't think google is going to decline significantly this year, but they don't see enough sources of future upside. i.e., best days may be behind it. from the all-time hi, ty, of $615. i think that was last february. looking at the chart, the stock is down about 19%. it is slightly positive on the day today. but nonetheless, it is one to keep an eye on in light of that downgrade. >> mgm from market perform to outperform, it says. >> yes, that's right.

they're also increasing their valuation range from 23 to 36 to $24 to $27, currently sitting at $20 and change. they note the industrywide issues in macao. they say las vegas, which is 65% of ebitda at mgm, they said those trends remain healthy. also mgm currently has the least exposure to macao in their lap-charge kovcoverage. they say they have the potential to double their macao ebitda over time. >> somebody at citi have discovered wendy's. they have an edge on the competition. >> absolutely right. citi says wendy's is a cut above its peers. they also see menu innovation. we always love product innovation on the menu, don't we. and international expansion opportunities. it's up about 15% and positive today by 1.5%. >> cowan downgrading jetblue. >> that's right. this is the last one, indeed.

they're also raising the price target to $16 from $15. not exactly a major hike, but nonetheless, they say the stock has hit their price target. they're therefore raising it to 16. but they do have concerns that jetblue they had to cut fares due to lower fuel costs to gain and keep market share. they also think that jetblue will see some yield pressure out of their boston hub. it's done very well over the past year along with many other airlines. >> the airlines have been doing great. >> yeah. >> as the fuel price comes down. i just don't believe airlines will ever cut prices. i really just don't see it. >> well, why do they have to? >> why do they have to? they're running the planes full. >> just being kind to us. why do they have to? >> crazy stuff. there you have it on jetblue. that wasn't so hard. >> it wasn't so hard. >> you did all the talking. you had all the knowledge. i just teed them up for you. should all investors have access to all presentations made by public companies? >> it's a good question. in fact, we're going to talk to one man who says small investors are being shut out of market-moving conferences. do stay with us. a really interesting debate.

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but i'm a bit skeptical of sure things. why's that? look what daddy's got... ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!! growth you can count on from the bank where no branches equals great rates. yesterday on the show, we walked into a growing controversy in the biotech industry. the ceo was on our show, and he

told us that at next week's j pchp morgan conference, his so-called breakout session will be broadcast on the web for all to see. but not all companies are doing that which means some investors do not have access to all the potentially market-moving information at the conference. joining us now who's been crusading on this issue and also biotech reporter meg tirell. >> basically what happens at these conference, there's 300 companies presenting to more than 3,000 people that endi iat these things. they do a big presentation. it's generally webcast. then they go into a smaller room and do the breakout q&a session. and those are not allege broadcast on the web. increasingly some companies are choosing to do so. and jpmorgan makes that available for companies but not all companies do it. and often those are the more off-the-cuff kind of conversations that you have. they're a little more informal. and what brad longcar has been pointing out and a columnist in biotech is that often the best

information, market-moving information sometimes gets discussed there. and if you can't be at the conference and it's not webcast, you're missing it. you're wondering why the stock's moving. >> so brad, is this a question of the conference sponsor, not being able or willing to provide the linkage that would enable those sessions either to be audio cast or video cast, or is it a fact -- is the fact that the companies don't want to take advantage of that possibility? >> no, i think this is an awareness issue. my understanding is that all the rooms are wired for this. and it's definitely an option. and so over the last few weeks, i've been contacting a lot of these companies and asking them if they would elect to webcast theirs. and a lot of the responses that i'm getting back is that they're not aware that this was even an option. and so, you know, this might be something that the banks aren't really advertising very loudly. and so what we've been trying to

do is, one, letting people know that it is an option. and two, describing to them why it's such an important thing for those of us who aren't able to attend. >> i certainly understand how you want to have free access for everybody, right? the public should have access to this information as well. but at the same time, is there any risk that you see if, say, i don't know, a mom and pop investor is listening into this webcast and maybe trades off of some data or information that they're hearing that they might not fully understand and might therefore may be not making the right trades? do you see that as being a potential risk here, brad? >> well, i would say two things to that. first of all, you know, i think people are smart. and, you know, i think a lot of people out there are just as smart as the people who are in the room. you know, all day long, i talk with doctors and academic researchers and just mom and pops, you know, like you described, who spend a lot of time educating themselves on this and learning these things. and i don't think they should be shut out of the process just because they're not a large

client of a specific bank. and the second thing to consider is if you don't open these things up and there's no transparency, there's companies and people who will take advantage of that, and that can hurt those mom and pop just as much as making the information available would. and so i think the best route to go always is just to put the information out there and let people educate themselves. >> meg, has any corporate executive talked to you about this and said hey, we just don't want that private, quote, off-the-record session to be broadcast because of x, y, z? >> we haven't heard that from executives. mostly the executives we've spoken to have been, like, yeah, we do want to be really transparent with this. brad actually brought up a really interesting point about a previous conference on his blog about a company called nps pharma over the summer saying there had been some questions about a takeover rumor, which there are actually now about it, they had apparently addressed it in the breakout session which

wasn't webcast at the time. and the stock moved. later in the day, the company put out an 8k addressing it. and that was a really interesting thing. and we got in touch with nps. they are webcasting their breakout at jpmorgan. i think sometimes the technology isn't available at these conferences. that's increasingly changing. jpmorgan has made it available through a third-party vendor. maybe as brad's saying, companies don't know about it as much. it's an interesting kind of change. one question, though, is that if these are webcast, would it cut down on the sort of, you any, your off-the-cuff, is it more of a formal broadcast? >> they might be more careful about what they say. >> that's another question. and should they be? some investors are in the room and others aren't, you know. >> meg, we have to leave it there. brad, thank you very much. let's check in with some breaking news right now. >> reporter: hey, guys. i just -- i'm here at 30 rock and i have some updates from a

letter from andy hall, the very well-known oil investor. a couple key points from him, first of all, he's saying that in terms of the price of oil right now, obviously getting very low even just in recent days crossing the $50 mark, supply and demand really not the opec or so-called saudi put will be the drivers of price going forward. he also thinks that drilling in the u.s. and canada becomes not very economic at much below $40. so what will happen there is effectively that oil will be what he says should in. in other words, spigots could be shut off. the drilling will stop because it's no longer economic. creating a floor. so he's sort of calling a nuanced floor around the $40 mark. and finally, he says u.s. is not the highest cost producer. so many places and the apache ceo talked about this this morning. could see economic oil at below $50 perhaps but probably not much below $40. so once people start to cancel projects or reduce their drilling capacity a little bit, costs could get cheaper, there actually could be some benefit in this $40 to $50 range, guys,

but probably not much beyond that. so interesting words from this oil trader that you rarely hear from publicly. back to you, tyler. >> kate, thank you very much. stocks taking off, currently sitting at session highs. what should you be doing with your money right now? we've got some actionable advice ahead. plus, how fast and how strong is the u.s. economy? we're going to take a look at the headwinds and the tailwinds and debate whether or not the economy is ready to fly like an eagle or cheep like a sparrow. >> a little steve miller.

stocks are ripping higher this thursday as we approach the final hour of trade. right now we're sitting around session highs. we've got a good rally on our hands with the dow sitting at 17906. and by the way, a bit of trivia for you, ty, and our viewers and listeners, on this day in 1987, do you know what milestone the dow crossed for the very first time? >> i do not. it was a lot lower then. >> 2,000. do you believe that? closed at 2,002. let's bring in cnbc contributor peter costa. what do you make of the price action over the past couple days coming back from a lackluster start to the trading year? >> well, i'll tell you what i think it is. it's two things, actually.

i think the market was oversold coming into yesterday. now, you know, another couple of days of this, you know, another 100 points tomorrow, 250 points on monday or something like that we'll be in an overbought condition. so you know, when we get into this, it's just high volatility. it's grade for traders on the floor because the clients are doing a lot of in and out, in and out. but in reality, you know, the bottom line is we still have some, you know, issues to deal with. and i think that the price of oil, people are not paying attention to the fact that a lot of companies will be having trouble going forward into the first and second quarter. drillers and, you know, and the energy sector. it's 20% of the economy. so i do think that's important. >> i've got to say, peter, i was surprised, and we were talking a little bit about it at the top of the broadcast offline, that the market has reacted as well as it has and has been up very powerfully despite what went on in paris yesterday and continues to go on there. if that incident had taken place in new york city or washington or boston, i cannot help but

believe that the u.s. stocks certainly would be down a lot. >> i mean, you know, if you're -- any geopolitical issue is going to have some ramifications on the u.s. market. i've got to agree with you, tyler. i think that we probably should have been or seen the market move a little bit differently. and you know, who's to say why? i don't understand why we didn't. >> i don't get it. >> i don't get it. but i think maybe the, you know, the technicals in this market were a lot stronger than the fear of, you know, some sort of continued terrorist action. i'm not really sure. i mean, that's a tough question to answer. but, you know, i think this is more of a technical issue more than anything else. and you know, the geopolitical issues we're going to be dealing with all year just like last year, i don't think anything will be a surprise this year. >> earnings are going to start next week, peter. are we in for a good shock or a good season and what will it mean for the market? >> i think we're going to have to wait, when the earnings start coming out, i think we're going

to actually see very good earnings this year. i think the fourth quarter was probably going to be one of the better ones that we've had. >> even with the stronger dollar? >> even with the stronger dollar. >> weighing down the s&p overall, even with weak growth overseas? >> yes, there are some groups that you will be -- you'll see some very positive earnings, surprised a lot of the u.s.-centric companies will do very well because the u.s. is doing better than the rest of the world. and i think that's where you'll put your focus. if you look at multinationals, yes, there are going to be issues with that. i think there are going to be some earnings hit. overall i think the bigger part of the market and economy is u.s.-based. so you will see some very good earnings. i do think this is going to be a positive season. i'm not positive on the market itself. i'm still off the table. i'm in cash right now. but, you know, that being said, i think that we will see some very good earnings. >> all right. peter, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> that last little part he slipped in there he's all in cash, mandy. how you like that? >> yeah. >> actions, actions.

watch what they do. president obama says the u.s. economy is resurgent, but that's not what senator elizabeth warren says. so what do you say? hold your answers until you see our report coming up next. our report, coming up next. (everyone) cheers! glad you made it buddy. thanks for inviting me. thanks again my friends. for everything, for all your help. through all life's milestones, our trusted advisors are with you every step of the way. congratulations! thanks for helping me plan for my retirement. you should come celebrate with us. i'd be honored. plan for your goals with advisors you know and trust. so you can celebrate today and feel confident about tomorrow. chase. so you can. e financial noise financial noise financial noise

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the evolution of luxury continues. the next generation 2015 escalade. okay. well, let pretend the u.s. economy is like an airplane. it is flying along. will it speed up or will it slow

down? well that really depends on, yeah, you guessed it the head winds and the tail winds. steve liesman, our co-pilot for the day, is here with a graphic, informative continuation of this analogy. over to you, pilot steve. >> mandy drury, certified air nautical engineer. that is exactly what we are talking about here. and which i think you are going to find, sit down and think about the head winds and tail winds against the u.s. economy. what you'll find is a lot of them are the same, just coming from different directions, perceived differently. market up 500 on the same news, down 500. today it son the upside. here is air u.s., that plane that's floating, don't laugh, folks, just a bit of a cheesy graphic. let's look at the first head wind that comes along. what happens, global weakness, a big concern. that's risk for the u.s. economy. moving on, take a look at another one, global uncertainty, political uncertainty and wrap in there this issue of exchange rates, everywhere to what's happening, upheaval in the middle east, terrorist attacks in france. that goes on the geopolitical

uncertainty. set us back, lower oil prices. how could it be a headwind? it creates uncertainty, creates uncertainty about leff ram, creates uncertainty about outcomes among the oil producer, including the united states, poi the way. finally, i think we have one more head wind here, low inflation. is that a sign? is it a sign of global weakness being perceived pie the markets? all right. enough going backwards. let's take a look at some of the head winds. job growth, the united states setting up for that jobs report tomorrow, looking for 240,000 jobs in the u.s. economy in december. that has been a huge tail wind for the united states. moving on now, there it is, low rates. something mortgage rates if a you will to all-time lows we have seen -- haven't seen in a long time. moving on, lower oil prices. that is definitely a tailwind as well as it works its way through, but a bit of a difference between the time when we can identify winners in that space versus the losers who are easily identified. i think we have one more here and that is low inflation. inflation has remained low.

if wages stay the same or rise that should create essentially more buying power on the part of consumers. guys, that's, i think, one of the reasons for the volatility we are seeing here, the same thing perceived as head winds are also tailwinds for the u.s. economy, kind of depends on the day and how the market is receiving those very same factors. tyler? >> steve, thank you very much. a big interview coming up tomorrow morning. it is on squawk pox and it is with the chicago fed president, charles evans, making some news, mr. evans did right after the jobs report comes out. steve will have that at 8:30 tomorrow morning. wouldn't want to miss that. keeping the conversation going now on the economy, while president obama makes his push to convince americans that the economy is back on track, not everyone agrees. democratic senator elizabeth warren, for one, says the economy is rigged against workers. so, just how good or pad is the economy? here to discuss that, cnbc contributor jared bernstein and jim pen cookies.

declining trade deficit to a repair in housing to rising stock prices, falling un. >> ployment, objectively, the economy is getting better and is pretty good. do you agree or disagree? >> i think objectively, the economy is improved. definitely taken a step up, accelerated. i think -- look, i know elizabeth warren doesn't seem to think the economy is very good at all, but she has been down on the economy for 30 or 40 years. should be running one of those prudent bear funds. we haven't seen the wage growth, low labor force participation. the thing i'm concerned about, the falloff in productivity. not done anything since 2010. i think there are huge concerns but also, listen, it's better. i think we should try to deal with those concerns. things have don't better. what do you mean by rigged anyway? what does warren mean by rigged anyway? jared, who is doing the rigging? who has something to gain from

the rigging? rigged against workers in what way, jared? >> that's the question. i think i can square the two views, both president obama's and senator warren's in the following waty. he is talking about the business cycle, clearly improving, gaining momentum the ways you discussed. but there are structural problems. the cyclical looking good. structural problems that have gotten in between overall great and the earnings of the middle class. now, to say it's rigged suggests, as you put it, mandy, things going on out there rigging it. so i think liz warren would suggest that the balance of power isset up against workers. much harder to collectively par begin than it used to be. tougher to form a union than it was. if you look at certain things like minimum wages, had increases, they are still lower than they used to be 30 years ago. so, you can go through the kind of policies, the globalization, very powerful force, helped the economy in lots of ways but hurt the middle class.

>> what that point, jimmy, that jared makes, that the economy is working for a small percentage of americans and not working for a larger percentage? >> i think that's completely valid point. i have seen a lot of these income gains the top 10%. >> how do you fix it? >> why do you think it's happening? think it is this par gaining power scenario -- bargaining power scenario or macroglobalization scenario? how i would deal with it, listen, we all like to talk about education reform, one, we have to have better workers, we have to create more good paying jobs. job polarization thing, a lot more startups, more competitive to create good jobs and make sure we have well-trained workers to take the jobs. >> think the year 2015 we see some kind of significance in terms of wage gains waiting for for a long time? >> almost certain to see some

wage gains. that has probably less to do with nominal wage growth, which might not accelerate much, declining inflation which will show up as real earnings gapes. what do you do about it? i think one of the first lines of defense is the federal reserve. i'm with charlie evans, looking forward to that interview. >> yeah. >> i think the federal reserve needs to be careful not to act too soon. >> i agree. >> the risks of this economy not reaching those at the top -- not reaching those at the bottom and the middle versus those at the top are much greater thanry risk of inflation. >> i don't think demand con straighten as europe. a good point. also folk count supply side structural issues. >> charlie evans did say the fed should not be in a hurry to raise interest rates and some people think part of the reason why we have been rallying today. thanks, guys. thanks, jared, thanks, jimmy, two js. two js. look at the markets. there is not one, man dirk of the dow stocks in the red at this hour as the dow right there

near its session highs, up 312 points. >> indeed. thank you very much for doing double duty. great to be with you, as always, really fun. >> thanks very much for watching street signs, everybody. >> see what happens in the next hour as the "closing bell" kicks off right now. welcome to the "closing bell", everybody, i'm kelly evans on this thursday at the new york stock exchange, we have ourselves a rally. >> i'm bill griffeth. building on yesterday's gains and now, we had three big down days to start the year. two big up days to follow that and those two big up days wiped out the losses, turned positive for the clear for the dow and s & p. >> started the year all of monday and where we are today it is almost unchanged, having had that sharp downward move. now this upward move. now the guys better break those down, 18,000 become out them >> i guess so. seei s