>> and there's not a polar vortex this year. >> thank you so much. the book is "america's bitter pill." we'r we're thrilled to have you joining us. "fast money" is coming up in just a few moments now. time for melissa lee and the gang. over to you. >> have a great weekend. "fast money" starts now. overlooking new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. what is behind twitter's late-day pop? the stock closing up nearly 3%. is this the beginning of twitter's turnaround? that's coming up. but our top story tonight, stocks selling off. numbers coming in strong this morning but hourly wages were down this morning. the big question now is when federal reserve will raise rates. something charlie evans discussed this morning on "squawk box." >> we shouldn't be raises rates before 2016. employment's been good. i've been expecting that. i'm hoping inflation is going to

pick up. we need to see more of that. >> if we don't see a rate increase until 2016, isn't that good for the stock market? what happens? >> that's what's kind of interesting about today, right? that has been the mentality is that bad news is good news. and all of a sudden today we get some bad news in the average hourly earnings. good news on the job report, but bad on earnings and the stock market sold off. so it's a little hard to read too much in because we had such a big day yesterday. but this could be the first sign that the psychological of investors is switching. i'm not ready to say that kwet, but that's what you need to watch out for here. >> and down .8% on the s&p 500. that's not great action. >> to me i thought the bad news that brian talks about was good news. you have revisions in november. you bring up the 353. i know wages are not there. if you look where the job growth has been, we're in a period of extreme job growth. this will lead to wage pressure. so right now you have no wage

pressure. that's fantastic. you have oil going low. you have a deflationary environment for the consumer. this is good. what mr. evans said is possibly concerning because he's looking ate it from saying we don't think thing are so good. i would not be thrown off by today. >> was this a lower oil, lower market move? >> no. i think the two reasons we rallied yesterday, we were concerned with european stimulus or hoping for european stimulus and we were hoping that rates stay low for a longer period of time. but we've known that for awhile. so i think yesterday's rally was overdone and i think it was basically a bounce on an oversold fashion, oversold basis. and i think today should have been sold and we closed right below the 50-day moving averages. >> and you have to factor in what happened in paris. i think that has to be taken into account at least a little bit. tim brings up a good point. we've rallied. we have two powerful rallies.

everything with a grain of salt. i'm more in the bk camp in terms of jobs. yes, the number itself was a great number. the component, sort of the underbelly maybe not so much. but tim said something interesting on the call today. you know, technology taking over. maybe you're not going to see the wage pressures. >> you're not. >> and so i don't know what that means. >> well, it means that the federal reserve is going to be a lot more active. they have a dual mandate. now they've got jobs up but inflation expectations way below 2%. so that's why you see charlie evans out there talking down the dollar. see the move in the dollar. it's the only tool they have. >> where is growth coming from? you're not seeing it in brazil or anywhere else. so it's only us. how long can we sit on this and we see money coming in from foreign markets to the u.s. equities but how long does that story take to play out? i think we're in the late innings of that. >> you think the u.s. can only be the good house on a bad block for so much longer. i get that, but i go to what

central bank policy is around the world. i think japan is going to be stronger and europe's going to be stronger. when i look at low rates, it goes back to what we talk about with the market. i think that could be a good thing for the market and i think germany is taking us lower. >> to his point, you're long the u.s. markets but would you be longer european equities because it's a relative call? so you guys are in agreement. >> yeah, but just to be clear, also, the german/u.s. 10-year spread is now around 150 bips which we've seen people have to be buying relative value. where this thing runs into major resistance. so u.s. rates are going lower partly because of the rest of the world. don't be thrown off that trail and say i'll take that and a decent eps environment for the s&p. >> i said this last night if they raised interest rates in the u.s. that would be a zast per. and the reason why is the market is not conditioned for it.

they're saying we need low rates. so if you start to see rates going up, that's going to be a problem. credit always leads equities. >> horrific day in paris. four hostages and three suspects have been killed following wednesday's attack on charlie hebdo. let's go to tyler mathisen with the latest. >> thank you very much. leaders from across europe will join france president francois hollande. hollande told his nation today while two separate hostage situations were ended by police, france is still threatened and must remain vigilant. outside paris, an intense manhunt ended with the sound of gunshots and explosions. police killed the two kouachi brothers. one person in the plant survived the ordeal. the brothers were expect --

suspected of the killings at the charlie hebdo offices earlier this week. a member of al qaeda's branch in yemen told the associated press that his group was behind wednesday's massacre as, quote, revenge for the honor of islam's prophet muhammad. almost simultaneously with the printing shop, police raided a grocery store in paris where a gunman connected to the brothers had taken several people hostages. the gunman who was also a suspect in the shooting of a policewoman yesterday demanded that the two kouachi brothers be freed. after the police raided the grocery, the gunman and four hostages were dead. four police officers and four hostages were also injured during the raid. while the two hostage situations are over, police are still looking for one suspect. a female police who's believed to have been involved in yesterday's shooting of a policewoman in paris. >> all right.

tyler mathisen, thank you very much. you mentioned the impact on sentiment generally of what's happening in paris. >> listen. i'd love to say it's isolated. i don't think it is. that's the world -- i -- you'd love to think this is a one off or two off. but unfortunately i think it's going to be commonplace. i don't know if the market is going to get numb to it. >> it layers in risk. if you look at the vix again, long-term is 20. i think this is where we're going to spend the next six months. if you think about where the market had growth concerns around the ebola scare, that was another layer that had markets selling off. so i think that's something. guy is right. we think about that here. we feel terrible grief for the people in france and this is an atrocity that the whole world has to feel and really push back against. >> twitter's turnaround. the stock popping in the last couple of hours. it is up 12% this year. we've got a top analyst to give you the story behind the move.

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twitter spiking despite the market downturn up nearly 3%. "fast money" friend investor mark cuban phoning in last night making interesting comments on twitter versus google. >> right now maybe google's a short. twitter actually is a better search. i use twitter ten times more than as a search engine than i do google. i'm more often looking for current things and current insights about what i'm doing now. i'm not ready to go long on twitter at all. i think twitter's got some real challenges. i think what's going to happen with twitter is they have a platform they can increase revenue. >> joining us is aaron kesler. great to speak with you. i want to first talk to you about the interday move. it was a curious one. it started about 1:30 p.m.

eastern time. it was a turnaround of more than 2.5% intraday. >> yeah. hard to say why it bumped late in the day, but clearly there are some investors expecting that maybe the mid-30 has been the bottom. but i think guys are saying where's the downside on twitter at these levels? >> right. you've got a hold rating on twitter so you're skeptical about the model. at the same time sentiment is so low, so negative going into the year. do you think maybe it sets up for at least a trade here? >> you know, i think that's the positive. we recently published an investor survey. half of our investors were skeptical and negative on twitter in our survey. i would agree. i think it sets up that twitter could work given the negative sentiment we're seeing right now. >> brian kelly. so last night mark cuban talked about twitter being a better search engine than google. do you see that? is that a correct analogy? if it is, does that change your

view, your hold ratings? >> it's kind of what you're searching for. twitter is useful for searching for realtime informs. if you're doing an e-commerce search, you still want to use google. it's harder to monetize current news stories. that's what twitter is good for. twitter needs to find out how to monetize e-commerce. >> mark brought up revenues. he said they're in a good position to produce revenues. he didn't say anything about monthly active users. so for me they've been trying to change the metrics on it. is this something we should all take a look at in the analyst community? that we're looking at the wrong metrics with twitter? >> we look at both. i think they have been more skeptical on the user growth to the monetizization growth. users has been a disappointment in 2014 in total. ipg that's what we're focused on for earnings season.

we've done some consumer surveys. and only about 34% of people used twitter. and about 35% of consumers don't even know what the point of twitter is. that's the way to convince why they need to use twitter. >> want to ask you about the second aspect of mark cuban's comments. that is google looks like it could be short right here. why would you disagree with that? >> yeah, we still expect decent growth for google. we're still looking for mid-teens growth and about 15% growth in 2015. think of the current valuation you're trading at 14, 15 times earnings. we think that's already pricing in the lower growth for google. it's not like it's trading 30 times earnings at this point. if that was the case, i'd be worried. but we think valuations with more compelling at these looefls. >> we're going to leave it there. thanks for joining us on the "fast" line. >> back to cuban and his view of google which i think is fair.

it breaks through here, a lot of people think this goes to 440 on the charts. but the valuation is totally fair. it's more than priced a lot in. i realize it may not be google. the biggest issue with google is everyone wonders what are they trying to be. raison d'etre. >> nice. >> if you believe much of the street believes stock's trading 720 at 18 times earnings, that's how you can look at this stock. again, no one's saying 25% to 30% growth. they're saying 15% growth. >> it almost sounds like you're saying that google is a value trap here. that it's fairly valued. you're fine on valuation, but there's no upside, there's no reason for the upside. >> what are we worried about? everyone is worried about the losing market share. google is still 75% search. >> does that mean the stock is going to go up? >> doesn't mean the stock is going to go down. >> looking in the environment

for big tech cap plays they're going to be defensive. i think that's catalyst enough. >> i'll tell you, the stock trades like that over the last couple days. particularly around the $500 level. i would not be trying to catch this falling knife at all. i think 440 easily on this stock. >> the addams family morticia would speak french, he'd go over -- >> are you going to? >> it's good there's a desk here. >> moving on. surprise, surprise. gold up is 3% in 2015. mike khouw is today's action. he's at the smart board. hey, mike. >> well over two times the daily call volume today. all of that the result of a bullish buy. so they were paying about $2.25 for those. they're going to need gld to get right up to about here by march expiration. one other point i think is

interesting, right now options premiums up 50%. the last time we saw that was right in here. take a look at what gold did. when there's a lot of anxiety, that's when you could see more of a bounce. >> you agree? >> i agree. i'm still long gld. i'm long gdx. that's the better way to play it. but the federal reserve told you they want higher inflation. when that mentality takes over in the market, people are going to want at least a little bit of gold. >> you don't believe there is that ability to get inflation. >> my point is they're going to start talking down the dollar. that's the only tool they have. >> gdx is moving three times whatever gld is moving. on both sides. up and down. if you want to talk return, buy gdx. >> i'm surprised -- i'm in the camp with gold. there's a lot of air up there. >> the longer the base the higher the space. why is it so hard to remember? >> i'm not going to -- yeah.

>> mike, thanks for that. there's more "options action" tonight at 5:30. mike will be looking at one tech name that could feel the pain from the dollar's gain. still ahead on "fast," it's been a wild ride for oil. find out why icahn says this could be the beginning of the downturn when we come back.

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time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day.

big drop for the container store. 14%. >> they cut their sales view. not good news coming out of this. even though it's down 14%. don't try to catch this one. >> pop for yelp. >> paul just raised -- he upgraded the stock price target. loved his work. >> drop for abbvie. 3%. >> they did extraordinarily well on outperforming the overall market last year. that's the one you go with if you want to be involved. >> drop for starbucks. down 3%. >> talk of the ceo taking an extended leave dropped it down. if you're worried about management at starbucks, know howard shultz is in charge. that's why you own the stock. i am long the stock. >> oil trading below 50 bucks a barrel. carl icahn told us last night on "fast money" that it could head even lower. take a listen.

>> i think there's too much inventory, obviously, and, you know, consumption is cut down in the world. so i think oil will actually probably go lower. right now, you know, i can't tell you even though i own a large position in them that they're going to go up. i think in fact they're going to go lower. >> basically it was as if he was admitting yes he's going to lose money. he's the third largest owner in transocean. he's just saying you know what, i am going to bleed money until oil finds a bottom. >> the dividend is 18%. something has to give. >> that dividend yield is going to give. >> that happens, again, if dividend is cut at rig, you buy because it will back up the fact it -- >> this is part of the whole

mlp. they cut their dividend. they cut their cap x. and the stock's went up 12%. you look at the guys with good balance sheets. they're whole model is growth through capital allocation. so it's a little bit questionable. best balance sheets. you can start to nibble here. i look across the board. with oil down 15% since mid-december, a lot of oil names are flat during that time. that tells you something. >> there is this analysis saying that for every $10 drop in oil, that's a hair cut when it comes to cash flow. for exxonmobil it's $2.8 billion it's annual cash gone. for chevron it's $3.85 billion. that's a lot of cash gone. >> to tim's point those names you just put out there are the large names in xle. those are the top holdings. the only one you left out was slumber j. people looking at those as defensive plays. if you go down the ladder there, you're going to find a lot of risk. if you want to stay in the energy space, you stay with xle.

i would not go deeper there. >> the other issue here going on is that the spread is like a dollar now. i mean, we haven't seen that in a very long time. that's going to a world of hurt, one would think, for the refiners. >> certainly. refiners also getting squeezed by the ethanol standards. but when i still look at the oil and gas sector, especially the e & p plays, they are not making new lows even though oil is making new lows. so the me that's where you want to be. i still think clr is a way to play it. >> the only names that numbers aren't going to be coming in significantly. the rest of the space, the refiner space is probably going to get hit. >> we have a news alert here on jcpenney. >> we now have more details about what the company estimates it will cost them to close those approximately 40 stores by april of 2015. jcpenney saying it will cost about $38 million for the closures to go forward.

many people arguing this is a good thing and that jcpenney is one of those that is over-stored. we'll see what happens when they actually do close those stores. >> all right. thanks for that. macy's today getting crushed. concerns about department store space, concerns about promotional activity. >> the word reorganization i think scared a lot of people. listen, i think ty lundgren does a great job. you've got to let it flush itself out. >> it is time now for the final trade. tim seymour. >> lionsgate to me pure content play. interesting to own the stock. i bought it today. >> grasso. >> i'm going with twitter and staying long. >> bk. >> so the fed told you they wanted expectations higher. the way to play that is the tips. >> guy. >> what is coming up next? the. >> the whole crew.

the whole rig. >> wow. >> lilly. i think the stock goes higher. >> that does it here for us on "fast money." catch us back monday at 5:00. do not move. "options action" comes up after the break. have a great weekend.

i'm hadley gamble. just northeast of paris where a massive manhunt has come to a deadly conclusion. two brothers involved in the slayings of members of the charles hebdo magazine on wednesday were shot and killed earlier today by police in a nine-hour standoff. these guys came out with guns blazing. they are now dead. we know that one hostage was released unharmed. we know now they were not working alone. they were working with a third gunman. that gunman earlier today in a shootout with police lost his life in a grocery store in paris. we do know there were casualties in that attack. we also know a fourth suspect is still on the