tv Street Signs CNBC January 12, 2015 2:00pm-3:01pm EST
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0.75%, the same percentage loss for the nasdaq. the russell is not doing as quite as poorly as the rest of the indices. the oil market is what everybody is watching down here, and we've had pressure all the way across the board with almost a 5% move to the downside with west texas intermediate. >> those are major $2 moves for oil. that will do it for "power lunch". >> "street signs" starts now. american soldiers, we are coming, watch your back. the words of an apparent security breach on u.s. central command as cyberterrorists take over a major government twitter account. hi, everybody, much more on that developing story ahead. but mandy, new week, new pain. >> let's take a look at those numbers for you. the dow is flirting with six days in a row of triple-digit moves. right now the dow is down by 93 points, but, folks, it could easily be triple digits again very shortly. we have not seen this kind of
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movement in terms of the triple digits since june of 2013. one of the reasons we are down today is oil approaching six-year lows. but we're going to get you more now on that top story this hour. u.s. central command regaining control of its twitter and youtube accounts after an apparent security breach. eamon javers joins us now. what do we know, eamon? >> it's pretty obvious there for a while, u.s. central command's twitter account and its youtube account were spewing isis-related propaganda for a period of time earlier today. not clear exactly how long centcom lost control of those accounts. they say they are back in control of both of those accounts now and defense officials are telling nbc news that this was embarrassing, but not necessarily a major security concern, because those are public-facing entities. the twitter account and the youtube account are designed to put out information to the public anyway, so nothing classified or sensitive would necessarily have been on there. nonetheless, an embarrassing breach on a day where the president was talking about cybersecurity here in washington. and obviously, in the wake of the attacks in paris and the
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concerns about isis, propaganda and activity recruiting jihadists over the internet. all a focus of major international intelligence agencies right now. but as we know, right now, those accounts are back under the control of extra command, after the warning flashed across the central command's twitter account, american soldiers, we are coming, watch your back. so very scary stuff, but they say they've got it under control now, guys. >> eamon javers, thanks very much. now let's get more insight on this big security breach. joining us, general barry mccaffrey, msnbc contributor. your take? >> i think eamon's got it entirely correctly, it's mostly embarrassing. however, it does again demonstrate the surprising confidence of the islamic state in both social media and cyberwarfare. they get great leverage out of this, you know, selling jihadism over the internet's a lot cheaper than running secret cells. and then again, i think the
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other thing they do is they prompt the expenditure of disproportionate resources to defend against these attacks. they're constantly in a reconnaissance and exploration of our vulnerabilitievulnerabilt in cyberwarfare, but also in physical attacks. >> jim, should we just consider this a warning shot? >> well, it's more than a warning shot. i mean, this is an ongoing struggle. general lloyd austin, our centcom commander, is running an air campaign against isis that's done them immense damage. so i would say, arguably, the situation today against the islamic state is better than it was 100 days ago. lots of their senior leadership has been nailed by naval air or u.s. air force attack. i think they're failing to govern the so-called caliphate, they're not doing too well.
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but they're dangerous and they're dangerous to the europeans and to the united states. >> the u.s. government has a natural inclination to say what was released was not that important. you want to say that. you're not going to say, oh, my gosh, this is super secret. in your mind, is that an accurate view by the u.s. government? >> oh, yeah, i'm sure. i think most of the briefing slides they put up there were available on academeya, you can google -- >> was your home address published, general? >> i haven't seen it. hopefully not. because, again, i don't think anybody should trivialize these people. after the attack in paris, this beautiful city with a first-class police force and intelligence service, we should not underestimate the danger to them. but, now, again, there's 315 million of us, the most powerful military on the face of the earth. the agency, cia, is heavily involved. this is primarily a struggle of the islamic state murdering other muslims.
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so we shouldn't misunderstand what's really going on here. >> do you think there's the possibility that organizations with sensitive material like centcom will just pull back from twitter altogether? >> well, across the u.s. government, there's been a -- and this just started with 9/11. there's been an absolute watershed change in the way these public information sites work. so, hundreds of accounts have either come down entirely, or there's been an attempt to understand why you shouldn't publish the vulnerabilities of the nation's power grid or the subway system. but we've got a lot of work to do. cyberwarfare and chemical warfare and biowarfare and the use of radio logical contaminants are tools of great leverage, not for a nation state, but for a terrorist organization. again, we should not
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underestimate the potential for this group to do evil, more so now in western europe, than here. the centers of international jihadism are more likely to be described as london, paris, madrid, than as a threat to the united states. but we're also clearly vulnerable. >> general barry mccaffrey, sir, a real pleasure to have you on the program. thank you very much. >> good to be with you. >> all right. thank you. now let's send it over to julia boorstin in los angeles for a quick market flash. julia? >> that's right. pandora shares are trading up about 5%, this on two positive analyst reports. bmo saying pandora is well-positioned to sustain long-term growth, as the company benefits from increased usage and monetization. wells fargo analysts weighing in, saying pandora's listener hours are, quote, tracking favorably. pandora shares now up a little bit more than 4.5%. brian, back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much. mandy, i don't know if you saw this, pharrell, "happy," one of the key songs of 2014, 43
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million streams on pandora. you know what pharrell said what he got from pandora in royalties? how much? $3,000. for 43 million streams. >> incredible. all right, on deck, much more on the developing story of an apparent major security breach for u.s. central command. plus, we spoke with the ceo aigos pharma an a year ago today, and you will not believe what that stock has done since then. he will rejoin us later on in this show. but first, another huge day for oil prices. so is there really any bottom in sight? we'll be serving up some crude realities when "street signs" returns. stay with us. e
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some have asked whether or not the united states should have sent someone with a higher profile than the ambassador to france. and i think it's fair to say that we should have sent someone with a higher profile. >> that was white house press secretary -- hi, mandy -- josh earnest admitting the obama administration should have at least sent someone more high-profile to the big rally in paris yesterday. president obama, secretary of state john kerry, and attorney general eric holder all taking heat today for not being there. another huge move lower for oil at this hour. crude is off more than 4% and fell below $46 a barrel for the
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very first time since april of 2009. it has, since, rebounded a little bit. so is there any bottom in sight? let's bring in jim yurio. you would have to be a very brave man to call bottom at this stage. a lot of people have called bottoms at various times all the way down and have gotten it wrong. >> and i'm one of those. i would say 47 to 48 would be one of the bottoms. but i did also say two weeks ago on your show, if that broke, my technical objective was around 40. i think the low 40s, it definitely seems like it's a little tougher sledding here now. what's interesting to me is the correlation between the stock market and the oil market, and it seems to me that although the stock market, i don't think minds the absolute low price of crude, i don't think it likes when it gaps aggressively lower, like it has. that kind of smacks of destabilization and that seems to cause anxiety. >> it's more about the speed and the location of the move, as opposed to the actual -- don't laugh -- >> smed, is that a hobbit
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character? >> yes. you also said that, yes, $40 was your absolute bottom from a technical analysis view? but didn't you also say that there are enough people within opec who will be feeling the pain to not let it even get to that stage. do you still stand by that? >> i didn't say absolute bottom. you're putting words in my mouth. i said objective. there's a difference. yeah, saudi arabia wants to wash out the competition. the prince came out and said we'll never see $100 a barrel oil again. i don't believe him. i think what he's saying is, don't try to compete with us, because we have the power to wash you out. but at the end of the day, they sell crude also. if he thinks crude can stabilize in the low 40s, i think he would be perfectly comfortable with that. i don't think he wants it to go to 20. and i think it's such a copout and so easy for these analysts to look at the chart that wept from 105 to 45 and say, yeah, i many next target is 20. that doesn't seem realistic to me at all. 40 seems like a good objective and that's what i'm going to go with. >> i'm not going to toot the old horn, but for the last couple of
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weeks, i've said, i believe this will be at least a short-term negative for the u.s. or the stock market because of so much money in the infrastructure. the stock market seems to have followed that. you send out a chart, i believe, this morning, have replicated it. it is oil versus the s&p 500. they track what the s&p 500 lagging. when oil goes down, stocks go down. so since oil has gone down much more, do you believe the s&p 500 has a similar drop yet to come? >> no. i believe that the anxiety comes from the gaps lower. i think the stock market can be fairly comfortable with the price of oil. for two reasons. one we can say, okay, it's a compelling argument about all the negativity from a macroeconomic estimate, from oil at this level. but the positive side is compelling also. every consumer has extra money in his pocket. that's one argument for the positive. the second argument is it's somewhat deflationary. when you combine that with the low wage growth, you can say, the fed has the ability to sit back and watch things. ultimately, the stock market will be fine with oil in the
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mid-40s. >> we've got you. jim, before we let you go, i want you to forget about being a trader. our viewers may also know, you are a restaurant owner, i want a burger. so here's is thing, jim, as a restaurant owner and a small business owner, are you noticing any positive impact from lower gas prices? people saying, oh, i'll take another order of potato skins, jim, was gas prices are cheap. >> this is a great question. we talk about it at the bar a lot of times. i don't think i've seen a pickup in business because of that. but i think people are more confident for reasons that they don't even understand. people do sit down at the bar and say, i just filled up my suburban and it cost me 40 bucks. and people are in a good mood because of it. i think to draw a direct correlation between me selling french fries to people putting extra money in their pockets is a little bit quick right now. >> okay, too early to call the french fry indicator then, jim, but great to see you on the show. last time i put words in your mouth. >> my precious. all right, so how should you play the downward spiral in oil?
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andrew berkeley is with oppenheimer company john rutledge and a cnbc contributor. andrew, so there's the question. how do you play a downward spiral in oil? >> well, i think you stay away from energy for a while. i would tend to agree with your conclusion, that, you know, earnings estimates need to come down a lot for the energy sector. they're going to be down, you know, somewhere about 20% in q4. but the full-year -- >> no, it's 10% of the s&p 500. if that drops by 20 or 30%, who's making that up? otherwise, you've got to live with a higher multiple for the market. one of the two things. that's it. >> yeah, i think, overall, earnings growth, can you, you know, still do okay. we're looking for 3 to 4% for the overall market. but as you say, that's not exceptional, you know, with multiples basically staying flat. that gives you a 3 to 4% trajecty for the overall market. the overall market can stay higher, but staying away from energy for now. >> so what gives you, john, the confidence to be one of those brave people we're talking about, who is willing to say,
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that oil is at or near a bottom and is going move higher? >> the selling right now is really financial selling. and i think the price is below the level the fundamentals would put it in the absence of hedge fund and other financial sellers. there has been a big increase in supply. there's soft demand. this is sort of like the tsunami they've build up. saudi market shares dipped to the point where it doesn't make sense for them to defend the price naanymore. so we have this huge break in the price. but i think what people are missing is the way to analyze this is a lot like the 1980s drop of inflation. service clear then that the inflation drop was good long-term, but short-term, it made everyone restructure. oil's been $100 for long enough now, so the people have built that into their balance sheets, their contracts, and their plans. and with prices down, they'll have to re-value assets, re-structure assets. so there's a short-term hit from that. q4, there's a hit both from that
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and from the rising dollar last year, so q4 earnings aren't going to be so good. i think volatility is going to be the word for 2015, but volatility with an upward trend. >> it's certainly already been the "b" word this year, hasn't it, john? but if we can extrapolate to a great degree that oil has been dragging down stocks, to what degree, if you believe oil prices will start rising again, will stocks rise in tandem? does it work both ways? >> i think oil ends the year at $60 or $70 a barrel, well above where it is today. >> okay. andrew? >> yeah, i think most of that relationship you're talking about, say, over the last ten years is because oil trades are a risk asset. so a kind of risk on, oil goes up, stocks go up, risk off, the other way. there's a little bit more of a supply/demand equilibrium. i don't know if that relationship is exactly in parallel, but generally, higher oil, higher stocks. >> john, i don't want to get political here, but i was
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thinking about this this weekend, isn't this kind of the sick irony, that really the swing producer here now is iraq. 3.4 million barrels a day, highest since 1980. we have spent countless billions of trillions of dollars rebuilding the infrastructure of iraq, western oil and gas companies as well. now, their increased production might harm our -- and i almost used a strong word -- our shale. do you find any kind of sad irony in this? >> it's both iraq and libya, a delicious irony, absolutely. >> it's awful, it's terrible. john and andrew, thank you very much. okay, well, the little blue box is singing the blues. what went wrong at tiffany's, next. >> and the oil's impact on automobiles. we'll head to the north american international auto show, better known as the detroit auto show, to speak with bm w. stick around. but when i started having back pain, my sister had to come help. i don't like asking for help.
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shares of tiffany having their worst day in measure a decade, that's after the company cut its full-year profit outlook. they blame a stronger u.s. dollar and weakness in the americas and japan. holiday sales edged down 1%. now, the company is expected to provide a better picture of the holiday season when tiffany reports its first quarter full
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results in march. >> okay, well from tiffany to diamonds -- no, not diamonds. let's give you gold instead. but both of those you can get at tiffany's, right? right now it's up near 17 bucks and sitting near a one-month high. a risk aversion comes to the stock market, so gold is benefiting as a result. some of the biggest retailers in the world are gathered in new york right now for the national retail federation's annual big show. our own courtney reagan is out there and she's joined by the ceo of hsn. over to you. >> thank you very much, mandy. i'm joined by mindy grossman, again this year. first off, i want to jump right in. we were talking a little bit off-camera about the state of the consumer, coming out of the holiday, looking 2015 in the eye. how do you think consumers are feeling in the u.s.? >> i definitely think the consumer is feeling better, but it's not unbridled optimism. there are definitely things that are a positive. certainly, gas prices, fuel, overall sentiment. but on the other hand, there's also continued concerns of what
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the future is going to be, particularly around jobs, and particularly around, you know, income growth. so, really, the way we have to be thinking, as retailers, is the consumer is going to spend, and if they are getting some additional incremental income, how are you going to be the person they spend it with? so, the focus is really on differentiated products, differentiated experience, really, what you're going to see very much so in this show is how are we using technology to create relationships with our customers. and in our business, i think the reason we were so pleased with our holiday business was because that all came to pass. and the hsn side, we continued our efforts around using our data analytics to drive customer behavior, customer assimilation. we created incredible experiences, whether they be around entertainment or whether they be around programming. and we continued on our path,
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where now even more than 70% of all the products we sell are proprietary to us. and then, lastly, the key to the kingdom, really using mobile as a key driver for connectivity to the customer. >> and mobile comes up a lot, as a topic of conversation, particularly at events like this. are most shoppers cross-shopping, using the web, using the television network, using mobile altogether, or are those separate customers using separate platforms? >> there are no separate customer. i think today, if you're going to have a relationship with your customer, that relationship has to be seamless, across whatever platforms, and friction less. so everything from responsive design to what that experience is, to basically being able to create content that she can interface with not just in a live show, but digital content. we had 170% increase in the amount of original content that we provided. and we know that definitely has
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an impact on engagement and conversion. and to your point about mobile. it clearly is the most personal device anyone can have. and i just got back from the consumer electronics show. you think about everything that's happening in a connected home, connected health. that mobile device is critical. and for someone like us, who has a platform to be able to describe that technology and demonstrate it, everything that's happening is going to create and deepen the engagement we have with our customer. >> when gas prices fall, do you see more discretionary income come your way? >> anything that is going to put more dollars in our customers' pocket is always a positive. the key, though, is to make sure you're the recipient of those dollars. the other thing to take into consideration, though, is the cost of technology and what a family of four, for example, what are they paying for those iphones, those devices, those tablets, and the cost of those? so, you have to really focus on
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being the place that somebody wants to come to, when they are going to spend that discretionary dollar. and so you need the relationship, you need the great products, and you need the great experience. >> congratulations on a good holiday season. thank you so much for joining us, mindy grossman, hsn inc.. >> thank you so much. we're moments away from the final crude trades for the day. when you see more selling into the close, recently, we've been seeing an acceleration of selling. we'll go to the nymex just ahead. and speaking of oil, goldman sachs out with a very bold call on crude for the year. you're going to hear their shocking price target for oil, coming up. stick around.
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in oil prices today, commodity prices, that is. 46.07, down $2.30 at the close here. earlier in the session, we were under $46. brent prices, $47.51, down $2.60. kind of seems like the perfect storm for oil prices to go lower here. several reasons we've talked about on the air. some of them we haven't. first, goldman sachs, $40 oil. i'm not going to belabor that point. but what's more interesting to me is that diplomatic push from opec to try to get a production cut. they were not successful. opec really digging its heels in and saying it will not cut production. remember, venezuela and iran, they've got break-even prices around $100 a barrel. these are countries that are getting very squeezed right now. stateside here, u.s. production is actually steady to increasing, despite the fact that we've been talking about rate counts decreasing stateside. and also, two significant refinery fires as well, pushing prices lower. having said that, the dollar is stronger today too. so all of these things taken into account and traders are
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expecting prices to continue down from here. back to you guys. >> okay. thank you very much for that, jackie deangelis. and we should note as we went into our show, we weren't at triple digit losses for the show, now we are. we also saw the dow dropping as well. the dow is current down by about 112 points. as for the s&p, we're down about 1% there. i think it's important to note that we hit the record high for the s&p on december the 29th. and yes, the last two weeks have been negative for the s&p, but since then, still it's only down about 3% from its record highs. i wanted to keep that in perspective. >> and there are two stocks in the s&p 500 that are up more than 10% this year, without a deal. in other words, they weren't bought. boston scientific and merck. >> there you go. >> you're welcome, america. >> plenty of opportunities. talking of which, we'll do that for you right now. "street talk." today we have all upgrades. five stocks that analysts think their clients or maybe you should think about buying. first, chesapeake.
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>> goldman sachs calling chesapeake its preferred shale sale winner. say that three times by the seashore. they cite new management, and the strong balance sheet for chk. this is what we referred to. goldman sachs out with a note today as oil in america now averaging $47 a barrel, averaging! >> averaging. >> that is, trust me, that's going to pinch a lot of companies if goldman sachs ends up being right. >> cvs, cowen upgrading to outperform. >> they've got some of the best for cord cutting. price target boosted to $62 from 53. so seeing about 10% upside. >> moving along to our next stop, this is charter, it's been hot, up about 20% over the last year. and it's a cable tv company. >> follows on the cbs call. wells fargo initiating charter communications with an outperform rating. they do valuation ranges. their range at wells fargo on
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chtr, 195 to 200 a share. that would be a minimum of 20% upside. >> all right, dr getting a double upgrade. >> key banks called its title, quantity, not quality. yet, i didn't flip that around on purpose. that's the title. they're talking about lower-end housing supply, mandy, meeting demand. in the same call, they downgraded toll brothers and nbc, and got two upgrades, but not helping, stocks down. >> overall, negative sentiment going on in the markets. you've got fmc corp., a bit of an under the radar name, but what's happening with that one? >> it's up 2%. they are a philadelphia-based chemical maker and bank of america and merrill lynch upgraded to a buy from a neutral. their target, $65, stock's at $59, so six bucks at the most. well, if you think that you had a great 2014, wait until you hear from our next guest. >> yeah, he's a ceo that brian actually spoke to one year ago.
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>> we did, this show. >> well, no, you spoke to him a year ago. >> the show, the network. >> and his company's stock has quadrupled since then. was the sullivan touch or just a good company? >> just sullivan. we'll also be heading to the detroit auto show, ahead. you just got a big bump in miles. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you, you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading, it's your entire operations, from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done. ♪
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we're still seeing the impact of the big oil price drop on gas prices. today, the nationwide average for a gallon of regular gas is $2.13. that's according to aaa. that is down $1.18 from last year and the 108th day in a row that gas prices have fallen. >> and we've talked about it many times, mandy. when gas prices are this low, people want those big trucks and big suvs, fuel efficiency, simply put, is not as important. so what are the car companies doing about it? joining us now from the detroit auto show, formerly known as the north american international auto show, is phil lebeau. and what are they doing about it? >> hi, brian. how are you? it's an interesting show and certainly a show with a lot of buzz. i'm joined by ian robertson, bmw ford member, in front of a gorgeous car that has a lot of people turning their heads and going, well, i know it's terrible weather outside, but i
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do like a convertible. tell us a little bit about the 650i convertible. >> the u.s. takes about 60% of the supply of this particular vehicle. >> most on the west coast? >> it's spread out. but, you know, sales are east coast down into florida and of course west coast and we said before, if california was a country, it would be our fifth or sixth largest market in the world. so we bring in this car now with its midcycles. you know, we've done some changes to the front, we've changed the grills, changed the bumpers. lots of detailing on the inside of the car. tweaked the suspension, made it a little more racy for those who want to be, more sporty, and of course, a lot more luxuriy for the ones who want a bit more luxury. so you really get the choice. and i'm delighted here in the u.s. as well, if you really want individualization, we could put you in touch with a designer, with design works in california, and they will tailor a special car just for you. the right color, just for you,
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the right leathers, the right materials, just for you. and i think here in the u.s., we're going to have quite a lot of people take that up. >> when you look at this market right now, you had sales topping 330,000 last year. number one again in the u.s. you've been number one globally for ten years running. do you look at this market and say, we're close to a top, or do you look at it and say, we can edge higher from year? >> we think there's still momentum in this market. we still see a lot of confidence in the retail segment. but we also see that there are some headwinds around the world. and the u.s. gets affected by that. but all in all, we think there's going to be single-digit growth as we come into this year. we bring a lot of new product. that always excites, and across the range with mini now bringing new product into the market place as well, i think we can build on last year's success. >> you've added capacity in spartanburg, yet there is a growing chatter in the industry that when you look at the capacity in north america, and i know each brand is different, when you look at that capacity, we're good for two or three
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years, but further out, we may have to see more lines being added. do you agree with that? >> i can remember back in 2009, when i announced we were going to invest $1 billion in spartanburg at that time. and that was going to take production over 300,000. a few people were saying, maybe capacity in north america is something we don't want to talk about. >> exactly. >> we were confident. last year we announced we would take spartanburg to 450,000 by 2016. that will make it the largest bmw facility anywhere in the world. bigger than all our german plants, bigger than our newer plants in, for example, china. so we are in this phase at the moment of still building. and in essence, from just a few years ago, spartanburg will be three times the size that it was. so you could say the footprint is actually three plants now, as we've added more capacity and more production. so i think spartanburg is one of our key focus points. we'll make 450,000 cars there.
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last year, we sold roughly 400,000 cars. it's, you know, not a bad balance, and that gives us one of the hedges on the dollar, where the volatility we see president world today is important. >> ian robertson, bmw board member. and real quick, you know what ian just told me? number two market for this car, for this convertible, the uk? >> yeah. >> the uk, believe it or not. who says they don't like convertibles over in dreary old england. >> just doesn't seem very practical. >> but that car is about fun, not practicality, right? >> driving around in drizzly uk whether in a convertible. it just takes the fun out of it. you get like rained on. >> a smile is the best umbrella. >> no, an umbrella is the best umbrella. >> we spoke to the ceo of aigos one year ago this week. he was very optimistic about the company's cancer treatments. >> we really need to find better treatments for patients that are both more effective and are safer.
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and we think the approach we're taking at cancer, which is a very disruptive approach, could make a real big impact for patients and their families. >> since then, the stock has quadrupled from $30 a share to more than $120 today. in fact, i'm just looking, $130 is where it's sitting right now. so what does he have in store for 2015? we're going to ask him, next. you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do, drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had a liberty mutual new car replacement, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels.
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the dow jones industrial average down about 130 points. 130 points ain't what it used to be, but still, it is yet another triple digit decline. the bigge egest decliner right in the dow is chevron followed closely by exxon. the oil slide is hitting the big integrated oil companies and the dow. let's take a look at the shares of tech meira, up 52%. now, the company is now going into treating hepatitis "b." that's going to be their focus. we've seen lots of news and big stock gains for companies treating hep "c." but no there seems a lot of optimism about the treatments for that particular disease. all right. but first, it is time for the ceo that we talked about before the break. and we spoke with him at this
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same conference last year. now, his company was much less known then, but nearly every analyst that we spoke with said this is a company to watch. and guess what, since our interview, that stock is up a cool 250%. the ceo of aigos pharmaceutical joining us now along with meg terrell, our own biotech reporter. i guess, meg, i'm not going to put words in your mouth or questions, but just ask the doctor. hey, you gave up 250% over 12 months, what are you going to do for us today. >> i know, brian. you were fantastic bringing on the doctor last year. now he's here again. >> always great to be here. >> let's start off with brian's question. you had a tremendous 2014. can you do it again? >> so 2014 clearly was an exciting year for us, as we brought three novel medicines into clinical trials, two in cancer and one in a rare genetic disease. and in all three, we've shown some really, really promising early data.
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we think 2015 will be as exciting, hopefully, not only for us, but for patients as 2014. because two of our cancer programs are moving into the registration phase. so for global regulatory approval, we'll start those trials in 2015, early 2016. and the third molecule will start the phase ii trial. so we think 2015 could be as exciting for us as 2014 and our research continues to come up behind. >> a lot of catalysts for investors to look for then, this year and next year. but let's talk about the fact that you guys were just in the earliest stages of clinical trials and moving directly from phase i into phase iii. is this a sign that drug development is speeding up? >> i think we need to throw away those terms, phase i, phase ii, phase iii, because what's happened now with what we like to call precision medicine, so we know the right patients to treat from day one. so if you see a positive signal like we've seen with our two cancer molecules, you can sit
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down with the drug agencies right away, is the drug safe and well tolerated? yes. and are we seeing the kind of novel activity? the whole game is changing and it all comes down to knowing the right patients to treat, precision medicine. >> and there's been so much excitement in cancer treatment around immune therapy. maybe you can explain cancer metaboli metabolism. >> when aigos was launched six years ago, we looked at decades of cancer research, which have all tackled the same pathways and we've known for a long time that cancers are addicted to their nutrient supply and they metabolize those nutrients in a very different way than normal cells. we can exploit that and find the achilles heel in a cancer cell by going after its metabolism. so if you think about the exciting areas in cancer biology today, cancer metabolism, the area at aigos is clearly one of the key ones. but there's a few other areas.
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and one day we'll put these all together, approaching the cancer from all the different angles and start to cure some patients. >> what's amazing, it really is like you're helping the cancer cells grow up. we talk about it that way, instead of killing them, like you do with chemotherapy, is this a less toxic way of going after cancer? >> absolutely. so with our two lead cancer molecules, ag 221 and ag 120, which target a very specific metabolic target, it's changed the game. so conventional chemotherapy just indiscriminately kills all cell. what our molecules actually do is repair the cancer cell. that's the easiest way to think of it, takes the cancer cell, takes the brake off of it, which has within placed by this dw defective enzyme and allows that to grow up and die off. the molecules which are pills, these investigational medicines we have, have been very well tolera tolerated, very mild zbesside effects, so it's totally changed the game. >> so viral diseases like hiv
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and hepatitis c, going after combination therapies, that gets expensive. can we pay for it? >> so if we know the right patients to treat and we raise the bar of efficacy, then i don't think that the pricing issue will be the dominant story. the struggled with the pricing issue is most of the medicines that have been made don't work in most of the patients. we need to know the right patient, get the right combinations and cure patients and then we provide the value equation for patients, for insurers, and for society in general. >> now, you guys were a success story in 2014 for biotech but it was a great year across the board. now, this is the conference that sets the sentiment for the year. do you have the sense that biotech in general can do it again in 2015? >> i think so. as a physician and as a scienti scientist, i have never felt more optimistic about the science breaking open across the board. as we said this afternoon when i will give my talk and i will lay out our guidance for 2015 and you hear all the other
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guidances, we're making the kind of scientific impact now that's going it change the way we treat patient was a variety of just terrible diseases, and that leads to excitement for the field. >> what do you think are the biggest risks to biotech? we talk a little bit about pricing. are there other things that could weigh on valuations? >> i think the biggest thing is following the science. we have a very clear mantra. we invest our capital, our colla dollars that we get based on two things. how good is the quality of the science and will it help a patient one day? where people get into trouble is when they stop focusing on those. and we clearly focus on keeping patients at the center, the quality of the science and we think good things will happen. >> as a young company, you're heading into late stage study that is involves more patients. that's expensive. you just raised money i think. are you pretty well capitalized? >> we are well capitalized. we just raised money in disease, a little over $250 million from our investors and that leaves us
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with over $475 million in the bank and importantly, as we look at our strategic priorities for 2015, it's executing our registration enabling global programs, building out new capabilities and that's where the resources are necessary because we've been at heart and soul we're a research organization, but now we're building out clinical and soon we'll be building out our commercial organization. and then continuing to invest in research. >> so a lot to talk about. we've got to leave it there, but thank you so much. >> a pleasure. always fun to be here. thank you so much. >> brian and mandy, back to you. thank you very much for that meg. the hits keep coming from the jpmorgan health care conference. the ceo of biogen, will be coming up. a restaurant owner just said no more tips? what does his wait staff think of that? is he going to raise prices by 15% instead? we're going to ask him.
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another big interview coming up on cnbc. congressman chris van hollen will be on "the closing bell." he will defend his plan to funnel more money to the middle class. it's the topic of some big arguments on capitol hill so today he will try to explain it all coming up in the next hour. >> well, a restaurant in pittsburgh is making headlines after announcing it is banishing tips and instead will offer employees a contract complete with a base salary and health care benefits. co-owner of bar marco is bobby fry. great of you to join us today. why did you decide to do this?
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>> this is one of hundreds of stories exploding across pittsburgh now of innovation. we just finished our third year. we had three years of data across the board. we were up -- revenues were up 40% last year and most of our team has been with us from near the start or well over a year. it was a matter of adding efficiency to our workers' lives and giving them a crack at the upside and making them a part of the business. >> have you had to raise menu prices to cover some of the costs? >> most small restaurants run on like 25% cost to goods sold, 25% employee costs, 40% overhead and fixed costs and around 10% profits. we're flipping it to 20% costs to good sold and 30% employee costs. that allows us to do more with the ingredients with get to lower our food costs. for instance, breaking down whole animals so we don't have to pay a premium on certain cuts and, you know, pickling, canning, preserving, all the
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things that are in season and fresh. we can use them longer throughout the year. >> bobby, no doubt many of our viewers and listeners probably own a restaurant. i think it's the biggest small business owned in the united states today. so explain to them how this has changed your economics because i guarantee you some of them are driving on the road right now saying no way this will work. >> well, tell them to give me a call on clarity fm and i will explain the details. this is not for every restaurant. this is something that just happens to work particularly well for bar marco and i like to say we're kind of like fine dining meets hall and oates and wu-tang clan. the degree of specialized food and drink we do and the team and the skills they need to do this is really special, so we need to make sure they're a part of the team and that's the only way we can keep the momentum going we have right now. >> one of the issues that a lot of restaurants and bars have is retaining their wait staff, right?
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because, you know, i don't know, it's sort of a transient nature of business. to what degree by offering a base salary, by giving the consistency of an income and the health care benefits, to what degree do you feel this will benefit you as the bar owner to make sure that you have a consistency of staff who will want to stick around? >> yeah. we've been lucky that they've stuck around since the beginning. our first employee of who was our dish guy now runs our half a million dollar private events business and he makes more in salary per year in his third year than i did when i left wall street in 2010. so, you know, i think that there's a lot of inefficiencies in restaurants and it's easy to be infish nent a restaurant. this is something if you take the time and plan and look at your own numbers, you can find your own strategy that works so you're maximizing the benefits that you're giving your employees especially with how much they've given us over the last three years. >> good work there in pittsburgh. you method man and daryl hall
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and john oates. >> i took off my pittsburgh cap for you today and got a haircut, so yeah, i'm in. >> tell roethlisberger to still tip. he's got the money. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> let's look at the markets for you. this really interesting move here. we're down by triple digits. this is the sixth straight trading session we've seen a triple digit move not just down but up as well. we're currently sitting at 17,628. brian? >> take a look at google. i know mandy you said you guys touched on it on friday. google's slide continues, down another percent. down 0.96%. $4.62. we're 18.9% away from its 52-week high in the past 12 months. what that means is we're about 1% more of a drop away from google before it hits an official bear market. off 20% from its high. not good. >> yeah. you were referring to the downgrade by stifle to a hold. saying the best somedays for those shares may be behind it.
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quickly let's take a look at the ten-year stuck below 2%, folks. there we go. flip over the board. currently see sitting at 1.912%. and you're getting on a plane to calgary. >> i'm going to canada. >> o, canada. >> look at that. wow. hi, everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. year, we're at the stock exchange but we're talking oil right now because that is what's pressuring the stock market today, down 5% on wti for the u.s. crude contract. it's even more of a decline for brent north sea crude. >> you're looking at the price of just under $46. if you're wondering what's hitting the stock market today, well, pretty much look no
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