60 albums, 50 years. thanks to a whole lot more. >> thanks, kelly. one last thing. bill told me on the way out, he said when i walked in the market started rallying. they called it the donny rally. >> that's what happened this afternoon. we were talking about that. donny, thank you so much. they'll lead yneed you back aro here. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. and that is "fast money." dan nathan, brian stutland, karen finerman and steven barrasso. >> prices could go down to 30. >> easily if it's moves in the way i'm thinking it will. >> now with oil getting closer to 40 bucks, he'll tell us where he thinks the market is going next. first to our top story, massive reverse until the market. the dow seeing a 425 point swing but the dow and s&p posting

their largest intra-day swings since early october. kb home falling over 16% after warning of margin pressures ahead as weak demand forces the home builder to ramp up incentives. kb home knocking down the home builder train. lennar, pulte seeing some losses. a bad read when it comes to a big component of discretionary, dan. >> i would say this. we've seen probably what some would call a healthy rotation. it went into the home builders the end of last year, itb breaking out to new all time highs. we had a lot of technicians on this show the last couple of weeks calling for breakout. to see this reverse federal a new 52-week high is a problem. because when you think about it. >> yes, the s&p reversed almost 2% intra-day. but there was no leadership. it started with the day with the leadership being the home builders. and at the end of the day, there was none there was no place to really hide. >> what is staggering is the home building indices hit 52-week highs before reversing.

if we're in an environment where the stock market is at record highs or close to record highs, interest rates are at historic lows, and yet there is still weak demand, bk, what is going on? >> that's to me what the bigger problem. i listen to the kb homes call. they talked about houston, texas being soft. okay. we might say it's due to oil. temporary situation. but then they talked about california. they talked about orange county being soft. talked about the inland empire being soft. some places in the inland empire, housing prices are down 10% year-over-year. they cannot raise prices fast enough to compete with the incentives. and there are other costs. so that's a big, big problem. it's not just a kb homes thing. that's what took the stuffing out of the market. i was one of these people that dan talked about, you know, coming on air and saying itb could be the trade of the year. i don't think it's going to be anymore based on the news. >> what is specific to kb homes is they do have a deferred tax asset that is going to be coming on. as they make money, they could take it right off.

so it increases their earnings potential. but it also increases the way it looks. it decreases the valuation that is put on it when you screen for it. so once you start to figure in, it looks expensive now as a stock. it's not going to look expensive due to metrics in the next couple of weeks. >> you're long. >> still long. and i would have bought more. but i had clients in. i was of the yield to where the clients were. i would have bought more today. this was grossly overdone specifically in kb homes. >> it did seem overdone to me. i think you have to let these things shake out for a day or two. people get spooked when they read about it. we'll take a look when lennar reports two days from now, whether it is in fact a specific issue. because what anybody misses, they say oh, it's industry-wide. it's not just us. everybody in the industry is seeing the problems. then when more of the industry participants report, then we get a sense of whether or not it's truly specific or more broad. that was a little bit of a problem. those comments really took the stock down. >> everything.

>> the market down. but the thing that i thought was really much more interesting was the reversal in oil. >> yeah. >> early this morning, oil was 44 or something. and i thought that was actually pretty meaningful, that reversal. >> yeah. what did you make of that? >> listen, we've been talking about potentially somewhere around here you're going have the bottom in oil. it came at the end of the day in a thin market. we had oil inventories after the close today up 4.9 million barrels from api. we'll get u.s. doe tomorrow. i wouldn't read too much into it since it came in the electronics session. you saw brent move but not as much. >> i hate to break it to you. the sort of the decline is not going to be 44 to 46. it's going to be the bottom. this is going to feel really ugly when it bottoms. it's going to be a massive capitulation. it could be down 15%, day. when you think about the declines that we've had, i know they have intensified over the last month and a half or so. but it's been pretty orderly. listen, think about it.

u.s. stocks are only down 3.5% from the highs made just two weeks ago. so really, when you think about it, the negative price action has been fairly well concentrated within oil itself. >> real quick, everyone looks at the same retracements. the retracement in oil is $42. it bounced prior to that. they always overshoot these levels. oil is probably going to come in with a 30 handle. to 38 or somewhere thereabouts. >> all right. plunging oil and a strengthening dollar two key themes. one man nailed the call both back in november. take a listen. >> the probability of a dollar breakout is very big. so if that happens, then the chances of the dollar moving much more rapidly than we've seen for many, many years. and that would lead oil to go much further. so prices in oil could go down to 30. >> 30? >> 30, $40. >> a barrel. >> easily, if the dollar moves in the way i'm thinking it possibly. >> joining news on the fast line is raoul paul. thanks for joining in.

when you made the forecast in november, it was pretty shocking. here we are, we're pretty much on the precipice of that. do you see further downside to oil? >> well, i think, again, it's the same thing. even though a lot of us are looking at supply and demand and what is happening in russia and the middle east, it's basically just following the price of the u.s. dollar. so i think the u.s. dollar move has barely started. i think this year, all things being equal, i think we may have one of the biggest moves we've seen in a long time in the dollar. i think we have a potential for plus 15, plus 20% year in the u.s. dollar. so if that's the case, then oil going to come down further. yes, there is going to be a point whether supply and demand comes better into balance. but i think that's better down than here. i still think it probably comes somewhere closer to $30. it's possible it overshoots that even. but it's too early to see. we need to see how the dollar trades first. >> a theme that has carried over into your january newsletter from the ones late in the year is the notion of volatility and how volatility can't just exist

in a single asset class without moving into others. that's sort of your premise for 2015. that currency volatility will spill over into the equity markets. what will that look like? >> yeah, i mean, that's for sure is the case. what usually happens, if you think of the risk that the people take, if something becomes very volatile, they end up being forced to take positions off there and elsewhere and create volatility elsewhere. and the whole circle goes around where everyone starts reducing positions. and i think that's going to come in the equity market. now, is this the bare market? i don't know. we need a recession or at least some of the key indicators like i ask them to be falling shortly for us to say their market is reasonable. but the chance of a large sharp correction, absolutely. volatility is there. and people will be forced to reduce risk. i think the biggest risk first is the emerging markets. i think we've got some of the shot markets such as copper, then the emerging markets are a big problem. and after that, i think the s&p will get clocked as well in the whole process.

>> when you say clocked, that's putting it nicely. you're actually saying the s&p could go down to 1800 in the beginning of the year. >> yeah, i think that's -- yeah, i would put that as a reasonably high probability. that the s&p fall do you think to the 1800 level. then we'll take a look and see and it all then depends on the economy. the s&p is not going to be in bear market economy. we haven't got evidence of it yet. i can only attach a lower probability to it. >> but at the same time, you're calling for possibly the start of a recession in 2015, and the possibility of zero percent gdp growth in 2015. and that -- that's pretty shocking. >> yeah, but it's not if you look back at the history of the business cycles and how it goes. we're getting into the zone where recession ahead. and it would give us the bottom of a recession. normal length cycle sometime in

2016, to which case we're going to start slowing down now. i kind of feel like that may be happening. that situation is part of it and so the probability of us getting towards recession, zero percent growth in 2015 i think is reasonably high and then the probability of rae session in 2016 is much higher. so, yes, i'm concerned about the economy much more than most other people are. >> what i like personally about your newsletter is you have trades at the end of it. it's not just a macro of you, but you actually have ways to implement this view. part of that is a short em. what else are your top trades. >> yes. >> it almost sounds like you could put a short on almost anything except for the u.s. dollar and you would be okay. >> i don't really know. and again, there is relative bets. i think the u.s. market, the developed markets will be better than the emerging markets. be short the bm. that's probably a trade. but it's a relatively risky trade. i would guess a lower risk trade would be copper. you can put the cost of copper

against oil or copper against the u.s. dollar and it needs to play catch-up. i think it will. i think it's being used as collateral in china. i think copper is an easy opportunity. and also i would keep a very close eye on china. i think they're going to devalue their currency at some point this year, or at least let it move dramatically weaker than anybody expects. >> and last question, raoul. do you think people are underestimating the impact of the decline in oil that we've seen and will see? whether it be the high yield market or equity market or wherever. >> i would flip it around and say people are underestimating what a strong u.s. dollar can do. and oil is just one of those things. >> okay. we're going leave it there. raoul, thanks for phoning in. we appreciate it. always great to hear from you. >> great to speak to you. >> raoul pal, global investor. these are pretty shocking themes here. if we are to see this rising dollar. >> when you say wit that accent, it sounds good, right? i think it all sounds great.

i wonder, though, if we start to see a more dovish fed, does that put pressure then on the dollar and reverse some of that oil price movement, or are we still the best house in a terrible neighborhood? >> in a relative basis it probably doesn't do much damage to the dollar strength. if you screen out a dollar on a chart, to his point, it has a lot more room to climb higher. everyone is looking at it in a microcosm. you look at it on a year basis or two year basis, the dollar has a lot more room to climb higher. everyone has been looking at that tailwind, lower oil. that's a great point on the stronger dollar. >> i actually think in the shorter term. you could have the federal reserve talk the dollar down. it's the only tool they have left. if you're worried about deflation globally and spilling -- >> can the federal reserve beat what is going on with other central banks around the world, though? is it more powerful than what the others are doing? >> because the dollar is the center of the financial system, the jawboning is a lot more powerful than the ecb, who and

i'll quote simon hobbs couldn't organize a party inside of a bar. they're having a big problem over there. the japanese can't really weaken their currency too much more without hurting their domestic players. so really, all you have left is the u.s. dollar. actually, as of last evening i got short the u.s. dollar versus being long the yen. breaking news here on tesla. the stock continues here to fall in the after hours session. kate's got the latest here. kate? >> the dow jones is reporting tesla ceo elon musk speaking at auto conference in detroit saying fourth quarter sales consider down significantly in china over consumer misperception about charging the physical vehicle. that stock trading down about 6% in after hours. back over to you. >> thanks a lot. kate rogers with the latest on tesla. tesla has now in the after hours session taken on its december lows. so dan nathan, you're actually short? >> yeah. i have putt position in february. and really, one of the issues was that every time elon musk has opened his mouth since the september highs, the stock has

gone down in some ways. he doesn't really care. he is one of the largest holders. he is managing the company as bezos does for the long-term here. i don't think 5% up or down in the stock changes a whole heck of a lot. china is going to be massive, massive market for them. one of the reasons i put this bearish trade, the first trade i did was momentum has been waning. and the technicals have been horrible. and it seems like every time the company tries to get good news out there, it's received with selling. >> so right now it's down about 15%, including this drop in the after hours section. do you cover that? >> my target is about 180. that was the may low about. and i think that's probably a level where shorts cover. >> all right. the bloom coming off the rose today for one of the hottest biotech ipos of last year. we've got a first on cnbc interview with the ceo of juneau therapeut therapeutics. that's next. is it time to pull the ripcord on this one? that's coming up next on "fast."

juno therapeutics falling 8%. shares of the biotech company soaring more than 130% since its december ipo. let's head over to the jpmorgan

health care conference where meg tirrell is joined by ceo hans bishop in a first on cnbc interview. >> meg? >> mr. bush, thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. >> there is so much excitement around the immunotherapy you guys are doing known as car-t. can you explain the potential? >> we hope it can revolutionize the way we treat cancer and other diseases. the technology has shown we have solved a little bit of the puzzle about how he reengineer a patient's immune system to fight cancer. the promise ultimately is not just better outcomes, but maybe avoiding some of the long-term toxicities of current treatments. >> novartis, you guys, how do you differentiate and when? >> first of all, i think it's a good thing. it's a good thing for patients. it's going to keep everyone on their toes. our belief is competitive advantage comes from speed of insights, particularly into how you make these technologies work

in solid tumors. this technology, whilst incredibly promising, the data in leukemia really, really very significant, all that said, it's very early. so we believe competitive advantage comes from really understanding the biology and really figuring out how this technology can be applied. >> what kind of timelines are we looking at for that? we have seen such amazing early results in leukemia and blood cancers. but this the solid tumor, when are we going to start seeing those results? >> we'll have trials in the clinic this year in solid tumors. we'll have a trial in neuroblastoma and also a trial in ovarian cancer. so we'll start to get first readouts. for the first trials, our primary concern is safety. you know, making sure that the antigen target that we're reprograming the cell to see the safe. and only attacks doomed tissue, not healthy tissue. >> people are so excited about

your technology. but are there things that are still really risky about it? are there reasons for caution? do we really understand everything about administration and about the sort of body's reaction. >> yeah. >> and safety effects, as you just mentioned? >> yeah, there is a lot to learn. as promising as these early results are, we're right at the beginning. in leukemia in particular, we're seeing a side effect called severe crs. and we're learning a lot about how to better manage that and of course what we really need to do is to continue these trials to further evaluate the efficacy and safety and benefit to risk. and i think the early trials are actually quite promising in terms of understanding who those patients are and how we can better apply this technology to bigger and deadly disease. >> we look forward to seeing a lot more data. mr. hans bishop, thank you so much for joining us. back to you. >> meg tirrell, thank you so much. whipsaw action in this one. karen, you found an etf you just told us about yesterday, fbt. which is interesting. a lot of people were interested in this. >> it's not so huge.

both the size of the fbt, the etf itself and the companies that make up the ftb. but for us, we just can't stomach that phase 3 failed trial. i can't wake up one morning and have that. with the xpi and ivb, this is the way to play a diversified portfolio. >> meantime, let's get to csx, because it came out with inline earnings moments ago. morgan brandon has the details. morgan? >> we're seeing shares of csx trade higher in the after hours, about 1% right now. and in line with the street. 49 cents a share on $3.2 billion in revenue. volume increasing a better than expected 6%. but revenue per unit falling short. declining 1%. analysts had expected that to remain flat. now for 2015, the railroad operator projecting a double-digit earnings growth. here is where it really gets interesting. michael ward telling cnbc earlier today that csx has seen no change despite plunging oil

prices in crude by rail activity coming out of north dakota's bakken shale formation. >> we think they can compete down in the 30 to $35 range in the short and intermediate term. so we expect no impact on crude shipment. >> also seeing that falling fuel costs have no impact on the company's bottom line. that despite the two-month lag in fuel surcharges, those savings ultimately push out to customers. there is certainly another interesting comment to take into account. now shares of csx as i mentioned trading higher in after hours. looking at csx over the past 12 months, the shares are up 19%. back to you. >> morgan brennan, thanks for that. we should note that csx's conference call is tomorrow morning. we'll get a lot more color in terms of the impact of energy. i would take issue with that. because 20% of the revenues actually come from coal. so when we're talking about declining energy prices, not just oil, it's natural gas, and whether utilities will switch to natural gas which would hurt

their coal shipments. >> i wouldn't look at csx necessarily as the proxy for what is going on in oil. so perhaps he can have that statement and he can say it with some confidence. i would look more towards a canadian pick, a cp that one look likes it's going to break down. greenbriar, gbx. those interest plays if you want to short. if you think oil is going lower or staying at these levels for a listening period of time. >> if you look at a chart, january, february of last year is where the stock bottomed out. i don't know if it's the cyclical thing or if it's the calendar issue, but it looked like a gad time to buy it at that point. it doesn't make a habit of testing the 200-day moving average on a technical basis. right now is probably a good entry point. if it fails yesterday's low, that's if your fail. >> i don't have you to wait or the this conference call tomorrow. this company has grownerings 5% for the last three years. next year they're expected 13% and the year after 13%. let's see what this forward guidance looks like. people are not just bailing their machines and trading csx

all the time in the after hours. but it's not great. when you think about what happens when companies report bad news that. >> go down 10, 15%. tiffany's, scan disk, kbh and bed, bath & beyond. let's see. first it was barons, and now it is goldman sachs getting bullish on best buy. is the street finally catching on to what our own steven grasso has been saying all along? and later, gopro tanking on news apple has been granted a patent for wearable camera. the details next and how to trade it. want more "fast money"? now you can catch more episodes any time, anywhere on your mobile device. any time. >> and i do mean everywhere. >> go to cnbc.com/livetv to watch "fast money" on your smartphone, your tablet or your laptop. watch live or get up to speed with the latest full episodes, all with one simple click. with market advice this good, you can't afford toe miss a single trade.

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strong iphone volumes and cash distribution. dan? >> whoa, johnny come lately. listen, where have you been here? kudos. the stock was up 3% at one point today. but none of the reasons that he is cited are reasons that i think people should be surprised about. so to me when you think about heading into this fiscal q1, we know that iphones are going to be off the charts we know the margins are going to be better with how they're cap theiring margin. i don't mean to paint two disappointing of a picture on this thing. but i don't think you have to head into the quarter and be long the stock for strong iphone sales. obviously guidance is going to be important. but to me i think you probably get an opportunity closer to 100. >> the cash distribution possibility is enormous the way credit suisse outlines it. it could be $200 billion. >> it is enormous. it has been enormous. i think that creates some sort of floor for the stock. but i don't think they use it all at one time. and i mean -- >> how do they do it? >> they have more and more cash

overseas, right? they have 155 billion in cash. they have taken $33 billion in debt. sooner or later, you're going to have this huge mound of debt here in the states. if you don't have some sort of tax or amnesty for bringing cash back. how do they do such a massive buyback? >> right now they have so much cash that it's not even an issue. i know a lot of cash is offshore. but they have onshore cash as well. >> they just generate it. >> i know. >> like water, like turn on the spigot. >> we're not even remotely close to the point where they get at all stretched. there is so much to go between here and there. next up, amazon studios announcing today it has signed director woody allen to write and direct his first tv series ever. the untitled project will premier exclusively on amazon prime. citi upgrading from a buy. >> none of the news today does anything to change the story that the street is worried about, and that is will they actually ever ernie money. they have been given a pass

their whole career, their whole time being public on a company that is going to grow revenues. but this year it changed. i didn't see anything today. we don't know what woody allen is going to make. we don't know what it's going to cost in terms of amazon, what it's going to cost them to do this. i think it's great news in that great, netflix -- i'm sorry, that prime is starting to get some traction. but, you know what? it's not anything that i would buy amazon for. i would buy amazon when the street changes their minds and starts to give them a pass. >> don't you think it's telegraphed that he is walking the fine line between showing some type of profitability where you have company that has no problem generating revenues, it's just had a problem generating profits or squeezing it in. at any point he can turn the switch. >> he hasn't. >> he said he is not going to. >> to telegraph that he said he is not going to do it. >> i think it's more likely that the switch of valuation turns off and, you know, and it comes

back down to earth at some point. >> interesting. >> i go the other way. >> clearly. >> next up, best buy erasing its gains from earlier. catching an upgrade courtesy of goldman sachs. this after a bullish piece from barons this weekend. and grasso, you've been touting best buy's virtues for so long. >> as i said before, it's been run so poorly. you have upgrade cycles. you have upgrade cycles in tvs. they're going to show they were selling around the holidays. everything everyone is buying they sell. home automation, they actually put that in. into your house too. everything you want in that store, they're going to sell, put it. in they price match. it used to be a bad thing when you said showrooming. now it's a good thing that you can walk around, test out the product, get it the same day or the next day, same shipping as amazon. touch it, feel it, move out with it. >> you make the point that the comparisons were so easy that it was bound to be rerated essentially and go higher. at what point do you say it's

reaped most of that and the risk reward is no longer there? >> i think it has there is no sales growth here. one of the things they can't control is sales growth. amazon is growing sales 20% a year. and like you just said, with no profit. they don't care. how do you compete against that? you just can't. to me, i think best buy, i think you take profits. i think this is as good as it gets for 2015. >> i would stick with it. the gentleman that i originally got the idea from thinks it's a 50 or $60 in 2016. >> and you believe him all right. coming up next, apple being granted a patent for gopro like cameras. one guest says there is no need to worry yet. plus, the big banks on deck. the names that could underperform big-time based on their commodity exposure a little later on. stay tuned. and cialis for daily useor you. helps you be ready

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still ahead on "fast money," gopro going down. the stock getting killed in today's session. this once hot ipos run officially over? we have one analyst who says not so fast. the big bangs kick off earnings season tomorrow morning. we'll tell you how to set your portfolio, coming up. and one oil and gas company reporting later this week could see a big move on earnings. we have the details in a very special "options action." first shares of go progetting hit on news apple

gets a patent that could rifle gopro's models. >> sony has been competing with us for i think at least three years now. and i think that people forget that. we're now a public company. and so the headlines read, you know, new gopro competitor. somebody is going to take gopro's turf. and what people fail to realize is we've had these competitors for years. >> let's bring in doherty and company senior research analyst charlie anderson. charlie, great to have you with us. the problem here is that the other competitors over the past years have been even now have been sony and polaroid. now it's apple. doesn't that change the game a little bit? >> i think we should preface this first by saying it is a patent filing. the patent filing was in 2012. i think at the time of that filing gopro was selling maybe a billion cameras a year. and the way the patent reads, it

could mean a lot of things. it's sort of up to the interpretation of the reader. you know, when they say camera system, frankly, it could mean the camera within an iphone. and i frankly think that's the most likely scenario. what they're really describing here is a way to remotely control the video amara on the iphone is kind of how i read it. so you could use for example the watch there is the a detailed drawing of a watch in the patent filing. for example, use your apple watch to record remotely from your iphone. so you can imagine a scenario where you'll use your iphone and then you'll be several feet away and control it over your watch. or you could use your phone as a baby monitor control it over your ipad. things of that nature. >> right. >> there is some talk in the filing about the sort of stabilization, for outdoor sports. you can see a stoengt iphone. but it doesn't look like a dedicated apple camera. i am not sure i necessarily see that happening. >> okay. doesn't this decline in the

stock show you that there is this concern, and if apple did decide to come out with some sort of gopro-like competitor, this is the impact, a 12% quick decline. you make a good point that apple gets a lot of patents. today alone apple was graented 4 patents. the valuation is predicated that go pro has the dominant position in this kind of camera. what the news shows us is if apple decides tomorrow to get that patent, this is what happens to the stock. isn't that a concern of yours? >> i think what the stock reaction is symptomatic of a couple of things. for starters, gopro is carrying a higher valuation. than just about any kind of gadget maker in history. and so when you have that kind of a valuation it can compress very fast when there is additive fears. you do have the expiration

coming february 17th. how does that lock up? the shares are a little jittery. any little data point can cause a bit of a brushfire. that's what appears to have happened today. >> it's karen. let me just ask you, do you think this, even if apple doesn't come out with a product, that this will weigh on the stock for some time until shareholders are able to dismiss it as really not a threat to their business? >> cooler heads will prevail on the idea of apple ever competing. i think it's hard to get your mind around the idea that apple would ever enter a market a single purposed device shipping in the single digit billions. it doesn't seem to be in their dna to do anything like this. it does seem to be in their dna to improve their iphone experience and maybe bring more gopro-like experiences to the iphone. but then again, you're up against the idea that you're strapping a iphone 6 plus to

your ski helmet or surfboard. it's hard to fathom that. >> charlie anderson of doherty and company. charlie by the way has a neutral rating on the stock. so it's not like he is really enthusiastic about the gopro story. but strapping the iphone. that was your idea. way back when that was your idea. >> we're talking about this as a hardware company. you can put an iphone on your head. you can do anything. you could come up with some other type of apparatus that is going to make it more competitive. >> it couldn't look more dumber than gopro on your head. >> we don't know, bk. we don't know are we buying the hardware or the social media aspect? >> buying the social media. >> it wouldn't make sense -- >> that's an even worse problem. because if apple had a camera, it could turn into a social media network. >> what does apple have that is so great right now? [ overlapping dialog ] >> how is the apple tv working? how many people want to message apple tv? >> to me this is similar to garmin.

you had a device that was very specific. and apple, they didn't come out with a device specifically to derail it, but you could in fact use your iphone. and so many people do now for navigation that it was at least temporary. >> on gopro. >> agreed. >> there is youtube. >> that's why you have to bet on the social network. >> they already have youtube. >> the only reason why you buy gopro. >> it's priced for every single unit and not incremental units going to somebody else. that's the problem. >> the only reason why you buy it you think it's going to be a media company. it's youtube channel is killing it. that's why you buy go pro. it's for the future. and you have to believe in nick woodman. if you don't, then stay away from it. >> all right. gopro one of the names that short interest increased in the second half of december. the numbers of shares shorted in gopro jumped by 16%. apple rose 14%. tesla increased 7%. microsoft up by about 5.6%. short interest overall in the

nasdaq fell nearly 4% in the second half of december with fewer bets against specific stocks. now the number of shares short decreased, this is an interesting list in netflix by 15%, by 8.4% in facebook, down 3.4% in gilead and micron by 2.7%. so do we agree with any of these short moves? dan, what do you think? >> i would say the ones that increase, these stocks are in down trends. they're clearly in down trends. >> yeah. >> they made the highs late last year. they're making a series of higher highs and lower lows. when traders look for those opportunities on bounces back to get in and short. especially when momentum is waning. in a stock like netflix that what just gotten crushed in the last six to nine months. that's when you see shorts covering. >> i would disagree with the microsoft one. microsoft has been seen as a safe haven. i would assume the rockier and more volatile would be 2015. we all agree it's a lot more volatile this year. i think people are going to move to that as a safe haven the same way they did last year. >> beaks?

>> i think net tlix is tflix is that gets me. at 320 that seems to be relatively pleasant support. you see a bounce, i see the short interest goes up. >> does it matter that the short interest in apple has gone up? >> no not really. it is all you, dan? >> no. listen, i don't mean to call this smartphone. but some of the best defined risk short bets are in the options market. that's where it's really hard to trade off this data. >> and real quick, you actually want to see a short interest grow. the fact in netflix you see a decrease, that's a stock you like to see, that first pop. rushing to cover versus now they don't have that many shares out. time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. a drop for goodyear tire. down 7%. dan? >> this one they lowered guidance. here is a stock that went from 52-week highs in june to 52-week lows in the fall and went back up to the 52-week highs. it looks like it's headed back to the lows here. they guided it down for the quarter, the full year. it's not an expensive stock,

people. but there is not a heck of a lot of growth. i would wait another 10% at least. >> drop for alcoa, down 2%. steve? >> fell right out of the blocks this morning. i was kicking myself for not owning this stock a couple of days ago. i thought it was telegraphed. the ford f-150 has the aluminum truck, the aluminum body. now you have planes skalg up higher, building more planes because of low fuel prices. everything on paper made this thing a bullish call. at the end of the day i would want to be happy that i wouldn't buy it. so i'd stayed away from it at this point. >> big drop for front line. karen? >> we talk about this when you have a levered name and get great sentiment and good fundamentals, it just goes berserk. it went a little too far too fast. even with the pullback which isn't so big relative to the move it's had the last week, it's in no-man's land a little bit. i wouldn't do it. >> tiffany. >> it has had problems over the last couple of days. weak holiday sales. we already know that the aging consumer has been tough for that. they said the u.s. consumer was going to make up for all that

they said maybe not so much. tiffany seas a name i would stay away from even on this drop. you just got to pull the ripcord. still ahead, big bank earnings start rolling in tomorrow. we get the two names that could get hit the worst, right after the break. stay tuned.

tesla breaking below 190, this after elon musk said fourth quarter sales of tesla were down significantly in china. he made those remarks at the detroit auto show. that's the first time he has been there in about two years. remember earlier this week we got news that chevy is going to have an ev which could challenge the model 3 in a couple years. so this is sort of a string of challenges that tesla is facing in terms of the trade right now. >> it is. and the problem you have in the very short-term is remember, they've had some turmoil in management over in china. so now you wonder how that r they going to turn this around. that being said, i've said this before, tesla is one of the long-range stocks. it's similar to gopro where you have to believe that they're going to come in and disrupt the utility industry with their plan. >> it's not remotely similar to gopro. gopro is a one trick pony. these guys set out to change the world. and they may still do it. whether the stock is at 180 or 150 or 350, it doesn't really matter.

>> you still have to believe the world. >> we're at 189 and change. >> you're below, as you stated before. you're below the level. >> below. >> you're belieow. probably 175, 170s. so it has a lot of room. the competition in china and no growth are the two major issues. big banks earnings kicking off tomorrow. could the recent volatility in the markets hurt the sector? jeff hart joins us with a preview. jeff, good to see you. >> good evening. >> you say, and there has been much speculation what the impact could be of volatile commodities as well as more specifically decline in oil prices. which ones could see the most impact? >> well, i mean, there is really two areas that could impact. the banks is one of the credit lending side. i think it's too soon to see problems there. they could develop down the road. but the loan exposure isn't really too bad for any of the companies. the other side is a trading operations. when you get a sharp move, that could cause trouble for market

makers. as you look at this quarter, it will be one of the things that weighs on goldman sachs and a morgan stanley more where commodity trading is a bigger part of their fixed income trading business. not to mention credit has been tough too. it's relatively big for them. they don't have much from muni which has been one of the bert quarter spots. we should get relatively good results tomorrow. but more so from the citis and the jp mortgage gans than the goldman saches and morgan stanley. >> what do you think top valuations here? they have come in a lot just the beginning of january. >> i think that's one of the things i like about those two stocks specifically. i think they're well-positioned for 2015. one thing is just on valuation, compared to almost peer group you could realistically look at, they both look really cheap. the other thing we're going hear is how tough the traditional banking market is, i think. as you look to 2015 with interest rate hikes being pushed further out, sluggish gdp

growth, it makes that traditional spread based lending business tough. both citi and jpmorgan have big investment banks. the capital market sides give them a bigger revenue growth which should argue for multiple expansion. >> highwey jeff, brian kelly. they were complaining they couldn't make money. now too much volatility, they can't make any money. they're not going to make any money on the loan side, potentially have some issues with the energy side. is there ever an environment these banks can make money? it seems like they have an excuse every quarter. >> it's a little bit of be careful what you wish for. at the end of 2013 it was really quiet, hardly any volatile. great. second half of 2014 will be easy trading comparisons. lo and behold, we're down again. i think that's true. what these guys need is they need intra-day volatility. they need prices to move around intra-day in a trend, be it up or down. what hurts them is these big

gapping moves where you get treasures in the equity market downs 5.6% in a day. that's what really hurt the fourth quarter. the first couple of week, you had volatility spike, volume spike and big moves. if you're a market maker, you're typically committing capitals. you take marks in that position. outside of early october, the trading environment has actually been pretty good. i think that will carry itself over into this year. so a better trading year. but not necessarily, you know, off to the races the best ever. >> all right, jeff. great to see you. thank you. jeff hart. karen, you are long? >> bank of america, jpmorgan and citi. we get a look tomorrow. i like it here. all of those headwinds, the flat yield curve, that's been a problem for a while. i just think valuation, price to earnings, it's attractive. >> i think we know so many of these things and we knew nothing about the fed. we know nothing about whether they're going to raise, when they're going to raise. the most constructive looking chart looks like goldman sachs to me.

that's the one i would buy, based specifically on technicals. >> all right. still ahead, one oil and gas play reporting earnings on thursday. could see a major move. we break down that trade. that's next.

oil service stocks and schlumberger in particular hit a fresh 52-week low today. some traders see even more pain to come after the company reports earnings later this week. dan made it over to the smart board. dan, what do you see? >> schlumberger, the stock reports thursday after the close. the implied move in the options market about 5.5% in either direction. but here is the thing. the stock has really only moved about 2, 2.5% on average over the last four quarters. today options volume ran really hot. about two times average volume with puts at about two times average daily volume. and when the stock was 78.53, there was a buyer of 10,000 of the january this friday expiration, 78 puts, paying 153 for 10,000. that's $1.53 million in premium. likely a 2% break even on the downside.

likely a position to kind of maybe hedge the stock into that event. when you think about it, this is kind of a tough trade at this point. the stock is down 35% from the june highs. this $70 level is a massive level going forward. this is probably what this trader is thinking, worst case scenario on the downside. and i would just make this one point. this is implied volatility, the price of options. they have risen to about 52-week highs. they have become very expensive. when you see traders starting to reach for events into puts like, this it's showing a very heightened fear about greater than expected moves. >> thanks for that, dan. we have your first moves tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned.

time for the final trade. dan nathan? >> despite rates never going up again, i still think the xlu utilities is the most expensive sector in the entire market. i'd sell it. >> brian kelly is in. >> you got believe and buy gopro at these levels. >> interesting. karen finerman? >> cvs, they have done a fantastic job with their business. health care space is great right now. and i think it has this gravitational pull towards 100. >> google has been a terrible performer as of late.

today the market got smacked around. this one was positive. look at this 490 level. if it holds that level, i think it's still bible. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. thank you so much for watching. see you back here again tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." in the meantime, don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always more. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey i am cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends. i am trying to save you money. my job is to educate, teach and explain. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. sometimes yo