dulled out a surprise to the markets this week. we're going to delve into what other currency could be the next swiss franc surprise. >> i'm hoping it's not the u.s. dollar. but maybe it's in there. straight to you guys. >> have a great weekend. fast money starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york's time square, i'm melissa lee. alibaba and apple may be different. and oil hitting the bottom. crude making a seven week losing streak and energy stocks leading the market higher. healthy gains on the back of the move. the broader markets staging a strong rally today. will oil keep bringing this market high. steve what do you think? >> this could be a one or two day event where you see a lot of guys, everyone was so super short in the whole oil complex and energy complex you're bound

to see knee jerk reactions. we had a positive comment for oil today talking about supply and i think that's what this market did today. guys that rushed in and covered but i don't think it's a long event. >> yeah but you saw it across the entire commodity space too and a day when the dollar went up to 9330. so a day when the dollar is higher commodities should be lower. copper is the place i would play. the copper miners on the move two days ago that's the place to take advantage of this before you jump into oil. >> doesn't the iea report prove oil prices are having an impact on rebalancing this market? >> yeah but the iea is behind everybody else. this is what we all have expected. we have been talking about the rate counts coming down. when i look at the commodities market let's take oil in particular. we could get a bounce here but it doesn't take long to put the riggs back online. you can get the riggs back

online in a month. we might have a bounce here. even if we bounce to 60 or $65 that could be quite low for oil and you get those turned back on. >> it even takes longer for that to be a positive effect for oil too. even if you take them off line he's worried about them coming online quicker it doesn't matter because the net effect to oil is other than a knee jerk reaction is going to take months. >> when you take a look at the equities and you see the rally do you think it's a short covering rally that we're seeing? >> it's a three day weekend. you do a show in 28 minutes called options action. >> yes i do. >> good show. >> ever use an expression called bad greek? probably not. this is going to be a little trade school. when options dealers have negative they're selling on the lows and buying on the highs. that's going on here as well. the equities can rally the next couple of days but i don't think it's the end. >> i don't know if you guys know that term, no?

>> that's outside. >> only you on this have read 50 shades of grey. >> the other thing they would have people worried is yields continue to climb lower. if you look at the spread between the u.s. and bonds, some say u.s. can go lower and a couple of days saying it's weakness overseas, doesn't effect us. they're trying to talk down the strong dollar. >> in term of the fall out obviously fxcm is poster child. what else are we talking? we're talking about big hedge funds or big funds getting caught off sides, margin calls, this and that. >> i don't think we've seen -- the retail workers are just the start -- remember all the retail brokers clear through citi bank. the fx market is controlled by those guys. you have that. you have the funds you have to worry about and we don't know what the knocks are. we talk about the swiss currency mortgages that are out there. that's poland, that's hungary. does it destabilize that region

and there's also talk that a lot of u.k. home mortgages were taken out. there's a lot more. this is not over. >> where should we look in term of asset classes? gold? >> gold. i think the gold market now wants to go higher. there's definitely blue sky there. we talk about if the broader equity market stabilizes today which it did after testing 1990 again for the third time you should see a double dip in these gold miners and gdx had a nice day. that continues to go higher as well. >> head to the smart board where tim is taking a look at the index from the commodity research bureau. >> so we have been talking about commodities. have they inspired a rally here. we show it for two reasons. we want to track what commodities have done and also they have been another measure of risk. the big sell off here. this is 2008 to the lows here. the reason i draw this line and the reason it's an important point, right here we're 220 on the crb.

this is the same level we traded down to at the lows before we built the base and we started to rally. what else? this is also the same level that i would argue, this is 2002. this is the same level we began what a lot of people call the super cycle in commodity. we went straight to the moon. we stole down. we got a little qe rally and we have been way off ever since. what is important to note is one we based in the last couple of days, i think, and this is my call commodities will rally sometime and because we're at cash costs it means a lot of these commodities can't go down much longer and global gdp was $29 trillion. global gdp right now is closer to $72 trillion yet you're saying that core commodity prices are back to the same place that they were 13 years ago. so to me it's powerful. people are missing the fact that demand does increase even though this has been a supply event. commodities are going higher. >> what do you do with your copper short? >> i stay short copper. i covered on the 8% down day.

i think that metal is still challenge although if you do like the commodities look to the agriculture space. wheat looks like something you might want to play. >> our next guest says he sees the key indicator of panic in the market in a different currency. let's bring in global head of currency strategy and research. he was voted the number one currency strategist by institutional strategist in 2011, 12, and 13. in terms of the next currency surprise, where are you looking? >> well, so the big event next week is obviously ecb and the question is whether they can live up to expectations. so expectations have been lifted a notch further by what the swiss national banks did and some people in the market are sniffing, okay, maybe they knew something about what was going to happen next week and that was

forced, forcing the decision to lift the floor. but i don't think the swiss national bank knows anything ahead of the event. the ecb will decide at the meeting what they do and i'm a little bit concerned that therefore it will be very difficult to live up to expectations now and on that basis we have actually squared short. we have been very aggressively short euros going into this year but there's some indicators that suggest to us from a short-term trading perspective we might be reaching a climax here. >> so essentially you're saying that there's risk to the upside when it comes to the euro trade going into the meeting because you think the ecb may not deliver what is expected at this point. >> yeah it's always a dilemma because my view is that the euro down trend has further to go but we also have to manage the risk event around it and we've had a huge move in the last few sessions. people are getting a little bit overexcited after what the swiss national bank did and approximate i look at the option

market there's really some extreme movement going on now pointing to a little bit of a panic and when there's a panic you have to be careful. that's what we're trying to be. >> help us think about what happened this week in terms of the broader markets. but in terms of the swiss franc no longer being viewed as a safe haven trade where does that safe haven money go to now? does it remain in the currency markets? if so are there currencies that should see the benefit of that or does it go outside the currency market? >> that's a great question. so several hundred billion worth that had been parked in swiss franc and they'll be looking for a new home. it could be in u.s. dollars but it could be more in risk assets. could be that some of them say we made a gain in the swiss franc we're going to look at euro stocks. that could be a trade that comes out of the ecb if the ecb does deliver so in the currency space i think the dollar is the new

safe haven so overtime the dollar will benefit from that but the key question really is whether the ecb can live up to expectations in the short-term and that will determine whether the trend stays in place or whether we have a major hiccup next week or bump in the road. >> all right. thank you for your analysis. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> jens nordvig. the dollar means higher commodities move lower. oil moves lower. >> but he is also saying the euro is overdone which means the euro is going to rally and the dollar is going to go down. the dollar going down has been rallying back. those are risk off moments. that's not a good thing. >> sounds like he might have been saying it was more temporary. so might be immediate where you see that. >> it's the key in anything in trading in managing your risk. so we have this massive event coming up next week. it's even bigger now -- >> greek elections as well.

>> greek elections. so everybody is pexpecting 500 billion jurors roeuros. if it does happen people will say what's next. let's cover our shorts. that type of thing. you have to manage a risk and pair down your book going into this event. >> a news alert here. let's get to dom in the newsroom. >> so bob made a good amount of money in 2014. per an sec filing walt disney ceo total compensation totalled $46.5 million. that's a 36% year over year increase from his 2013 compensation of $34.3 million. we should also point out melissa that disney shares sit currently near record highs. back to you guys. >> thanks. guy in term of disney, this is a case where the ceo actually may have earned. >> deserves every penny of it. ironically that he makes the

same money that roger goodell makes, the commissioner of the nfl and espn, the nfl has been a huge win for disney. so doesn't escape me that disney continues to go higher. we said it for awhile. >> the swiss move may have shocked the markets but one of our traders here is looking outside and looking for a surprise from another country. could have an even bigger impact. find out what that is up next and looking for growth in china, u. s. retailers using alibaba to target chinese consumers but could the move backfire? that's coming up next on fast. female announcer: during sleep train's huge year end clearance sale,

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>> b.k. is placing his bet on one under the radar play. >> a lot of people have talked for years about the rnb being overvalued. it's no longer being overvalued. the chinese economy is slowing down. they're trying to transition from an export led economy to a consumer led economy. that doesn't happen overnight. we're seeing it slow down and the property markets slow down.

they're going to need a weaker currency and they're already starting to do it. if you look at the offshore rnb it's starting to weaken. look at the break out there so this trend continues. i think that could be the shock coming up in 2015. i am short rnb versus long u.s. dollar. a lot are responding to what's happened in japan and the yen and how is korea going to respond because they're competitors. >> korea is someone you should watch. it's a function of the weakness in the yen. same exporting economy. people call korea the new japan. i'm less worried about the yuan. they're doing whatever they can. it's going to be more subtle. it's only been 3% over the last couple of moss. >> it's not just currencies in focus. some are upping their exposure to the company. alibaba is partnering with

macy's and saks to push products to consumers. they're opening new stores. and does that make alibaba more attractive in your view? >> when you compare alibaba and amazon you're more comfortable with amazon. i feel as if there was so much hype and it should have been a lot of hype around alibaba but for me i would rather stay with amazon or apple and compare the two, i'd rather be there. >> the problem here is that alibaba has their international store front and those sales have been abissmal. >> and yahoo! hasn't traded that well over the last month or so. this earnings release for yahoo! is one of the more interesting ones. >> this year and the black friday event was the first time they were reaching out to global

retailers. >> time now for pops and drops. the big movers of the day. netflix up 4%. >> upgrade and i dig that ahead of earnings on tuesday it was upgraded on wednesday. 320 on the down side. that's your pivot point. >> lack of demand from the energy space for the metal components they make so you would expect this. on a chart they stopped at 187 so i want to take a look and see if that level holds. >> pop for michael kors. >> they're great. the stock has certainly been beaten but to say on that number you have to go buy the stock, 66 not the place to buy it. i would wait. >> game stop a pop. the move 5%. >> this is a stock that had nine lives. got an upgrade today. they put a $40 price tag on there. if you get $40 you take that gift and go buy something else. >> a pop for 50 shades of grey.

the film already sold a million dollars in advanced preticket sales and it's not out until february 14th. just in time for valentine's day. it's the fastest selling r-rated film in their history. it's based on an erotic trilogy by author e.l. james. it's racked up 40 million youtube views. >> how naughty is this film. >> as opposed to a pg movie. there's the distinction between r and pg here. >> there's a big distinction. >> i think we should just go to break. >> all right. >> coming up next, jim is going short -- the drilling names he's betting against and whether you should follow suit. that's next. >> want more fast money? now you can catch full episodes anymore, anywhere on your mobile device. anywhere. >> and i do mean everywhere.

>> just go to cnbc.com/live tv to watch fast money on your smartphone. your tablet, or your laptop. watch live or get up to speed with the latest full episodes all with one simple click. you can't afford to miss a single trade. get it at cnbc.com/live tv.

goldman sachs kicking off our top trades tonight. beating earnings estimates. hurt by weakness and fixed income trading and 16% decline in investment banking revenue. we should have known this right from the other banks. >> not necessarily. don't lump goldman with the rest of those cats because they're better. >> weakness in trading. >> honestly they should have done a lot better than they did. that would light a candle under their collective rear ends to have a better quarter last time around. it's had a nice up trend since the middle of 2012. i think the quarter was okay. tangible book is 163. you put it at 1.5 times tangible book you have a stock by the end

of the year. >> that seems like a good sign. >> i think technically out of all the financials, i like wells fargo, obviously you're going to get hit with the home builders weakness on that one but goldman sachs is the best out of everybody. >> next up, speaking earlier today on squawk box he explained why you short the big oil names. >> the fracking and shale revolution was preparing us to be the largest oil producer and in a way that i thought was uneconomic and still is for the drillers but it's going to be enough supply to really disrupt the markets. more importantly the big oil companies. the exxons and they're finding their business model challenge because the days of finding easy cheap oil is over. >> he's 100% right. he was early there and could probably still linger with that call.

the rig count that we discussed at the top of the show i believe has to come down dramatically from where it is now and we're in the early stages of that. same way that i believe that everyone is in some degree of cap x cuts the rate count is going to come down substantially. >> if i may i'd like to switch the discussion to caterpillar because he talked about that short he delivered two summers ago i should say and that trade is about flat from when he said it was his best idea. how has what's going on in the world changed that. >> it's gone from 110 to 86. to the extent those people were short. it was a good trade. i think we're at the bottom of the mining cycle and u.s. construction continues to be very bullish so to me no way would i be shorting caterpillar here. it's a place you might be taking a look. >> it's a pressure short. don't go out tomorrow and short caterpillar but tim talked about the bottom in commodities.

i don't see another super cycle coming. so could you get a pop? great but it wouldn't be anything b.k. holds for a long time. >> i tell you what though, 52 week low, it held 80 all through 2014 and breaks $80 and it's broken. so it's typically early which means wrong in our world which doesn't mean he totally missed the boat on this cat trade. this thing has a long way to go. >> were you asking to make the analysis comparing the cat trade to this call? to the drillers? >> no, i wanted to discuss another one because that's something he called for and it wasn't working in his favor at all and it peaked and came back down. >> this chart looks like every commodity chart. 83 is three year support on it. guys it's a very important level but also a level that held countless times through a lot of main. >> in terms of the production

trade you at one point wanted to put on a short of xop. >> i wanted to go long. i was short xop coming into this for a portion of the oil route and i thought, you know, getting into the enp trade i think you can get a 5 or 10% pop on this thing with oil but overall i think you're going to be very challenged to get any type of long-term trend in these to the bulls eye. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> this is probably the best bank of brazil. we're seeing a currency recovery and brazil having bottom because a lot of this is priced in. >> kb homes, i'm still longing it. take a shot here. use 1233, the recent low, use that as your stop out. >> beakers. >> tlt had quite a reversal today. i actually sold the futures. tlt, i think you sell those. >> three day weekend. everybody have a good one. have a good time in tv land.

gdx. >> still works. >> that does it for us but up next on option actions, we'll follow the momentum stocks lower. have a great three-day weekend. see you soon. stamps.com is the best. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. i have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it. can you print only stamps? no... first class. priority mail. certified. international. and the mail man picks it up. i don't leave the shop anymore. [ male announcer ] get a 4 week trial plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again.

>> this is options action. tonight how would you like to make money if facebook shares go up, down, or nowhere at all. we'll show you how. plus you won't believe how high some traders see gold going. we'll break it down. the incredible true story of how one of our traders just doubled his money by betting against tesla and now he has a way to make even more. the action starts right now. ♪ live from the nasdaq market site on a very busy expiration friday these are the traders in times square and sunny miami florida. we begin with the letters that will make or break this