$5,000. >> for a mini bike. dana mecum, now i'm watching. thank you. >> how mini is mini? >> it's your size. >> my size that's really mini. $5,000 for something that big. okay, everybody. thanks for watching "street signs." >> "the closing bell," last hour of trading begins right now. and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. listen to this statistic. this is unbelievable. now, volatility has been with us all of the trading sessions we've had so far this year. today alone the dow was down about 120 points it's been up about 84 points. so a 200-point range today. listen to this kelly. we've had a 200-point range on the dow every trading session this year. >> including that first one. >> including the first one that friday. that's unbelievable. >> wow. >> we're going to be talking about what that means as we kick off this final hour of trade and

we await the word from the european central bank tomorrow. that's going to be very interesting. >> yes, we'll get to more on that in a second. what all the central banks are up to. oil rebounding but that didn't stop canada from cutting its key interest rate north of the border and they did that because of how the dramatic fall in oil prices is rippling through the nation's economy. >> we'll get into that a lot more with to do ameritrade's ceo fred tomczyk is back with us. they had good looking earnings. they had record asset accumulation by their clients in the last quarter. what are they doing with that money, that's the question, what their clients are doing with that money. and this is not a technical glitch. look at netflix, you talked about this last night. they had blowout earnings. it is up 17%, about a $60 gain after those earnings the explosive growth first reported on "the closing bell" yesterday. we will follow that stock into the close and at least one of our guests says you can still

buy netflix and make money. >> let's look at where we stand in the markets going into the final hour of trade. the dow has been down and up right now. it's winning to the upside about 17 points. the s&p adding about 7. that's about a third of a percent there. the nasdaq meanwhile putting in a gain of about 10. >> i don't know how word got out, but it is true, later in the program today you will have the entire motley crue band the classic rock band motley crue will be here with alice cooper today. >> yes, that actually is happening. i thought when you sate motley crue you might be talking about the group joining us. >> that's where i was going. we have our own motley crue and they include jack ver rouge bouroudjian on drums. keith fitzgerald is lead guitarist with money map press and the lead singer of course is rick santelli from chicago. "the wall street journal" earlier today as we await this

highly anticipated word from the european central bank about how -- whether they're going to be buying up bonds and start their own easy money policy the word got around ther going to buy up $58 billion a month. the market has done absolutely nothing with that today. what do you make of that here if, in fact that's a true report? >> well, i think it's a balloon they floated with good purpose, to just make sure that the market was somewhat prepared and i have to tell you, 50 billion air rows $58 billion a month for at least a year is pretty much in line with what traders are looking for. the issue with traders, just like many of us who are parents and have kids it's never enough. so really the issue tomorrow is twofold. all the positions that have been on really since thanksgiving short euro versus everything looking for bond yields to keep dropping and long equities look at the dax today, what happens to the positions that are big winners? do they stick around or get out and what's the next trade? what do newcomers do?

it's about looking at the carrot of the future with regard to all the gifts the central bank will give. look for a lot of two-way trade, especially right around the time of the statement and then of course, at 8:30 eastern for the press conference. >> because yesterday meanwhile mohammeded el-erian flat out told us he doesn't think qe is going to work. >> he's a very smart man and i think what he was saying was absolutely right. they've got a bigger structural problem in europe and i think the fact that we saw what the swiss did last week react the way the markets reacted with all that turmoil and volatility gives us a good example. there are a lot of people out there praying that the swiss economy goes into a recession this year because if it doesn't, guess what? germany is probably next. and that is going to really cause a ripple effect. let's see if indeed that is a problem. the flip side of that is there was a story that was floated around that there was going to be a billion euros or a trillion euros i should say and the market started taking that as

bad news because they were worried maybe things were worse than expected. all of this, as rick said, will play out over the next couple days. >> keith, i'll get to you in a second. also joining us we have kate warren from edwards jones. good to see you. are you waiting to make investment decisions until after the european central bank announces what they plan to do especially if you're thinking about investing in europe right now? >> absolutely not. i think the right move is to put money to work today. the european central bank is trying to set expectations. rick suggested traders say never enough but they're trying to set expectations so there's not dispointment dispointment. the fact they're taking more action combined with lower oil prices which should be good news for economic growth, you want to take advantage of the strong dollar, put your money to work where it buys more and that's in europe. >> keith, yesterday john calamos also speaking of flat out

disorderly conduct declarations said we're in a deflationary period. what we've seen from central banks just in the past call it week he had india, 25 basis points race cut. the swiss cut rates to negative 0.75% along with abandoning the peg on the 15. you had a peru a surprise rate cut. den narcotic with a surprise rate cut on the 19th and today canada with a surprise rate cut. are people aware of what's happening with central banks try to combat deflation around the world and what that means for the g-4 next? >> i think we've been hanging around in bernanke's helicopter hangar. i think rick is right we're going it see tremendous volatility around this because traders on one hand have been anticipating. on the other hand they're very much looking to put positions to work and the party continues as long as there's free money. what i worry about is that this is absolutely the wrong message to be sending to the derivatives cowboys. it's a bet they can't lose. i think we're going to see big wall street warm up.

i think we will see individual investors go in with intelligent bys buys and there will be a lot of volatility for three or four day approximates. >> rick, i'm surprised you're not a little more outspoken against this. i can imagine you're against this strategy by the european central bank to do this buying especially when you consider that the fed did this under the duress of the financial crisis we went through. yes, they're in a slow economic environment in europe. they've got their problems with greece and so forth, but i don't think anybody would argue they're in dire straits we were six years ago, yet they're employing this same strategy. do you think a precedent has been set, he asks naively, where other central banks will follow this course down the road every time they stub their toe economically? >> oh, absolutely and it's the dark side of this type of strategy, and let's be clear here. you know if you look at the type of economy we had before the crisis in europe and in the u.s., the fact that we've had the types of recoveries we've

had, better in the u.s. than europe, really shouldn't be surprising, and i'm certainly not saying that in any large part it's due to the medicine that's been applied. it's what normally happens when an event surprises the market. you go down to 6600 in the dow. it's going to bounce back. that's the way these economies are, and ours is better and more resilient. the real issue is why are you applying salve when we don't have the type of wound that will be healed by salve. >> kate warne, what do you make of all this policy and what should investors do here? what does this mean for the next 6 to 12 months for your investments? >> certainly i think the european central bank is taking action. they're doing the things they know to do. it may not be the right medicine but it also buys time, and time really heals a lot of things. investors i think should be looking for quality companies

and putting money to work. this is an environment where economic growth is improving in the u.s. it's weak in europe but if any of these policies whether it's central bank action or lower oil prices can help that's actually a plus for investors putting money to work in quality companies. so i'd be buying stocks particularly ones with low dividends and the potential for dividend growth. >> keith, do you agree that what the european central bank is going to do could help us in the united states or does it matter? >> i think it should help us. >> i asked keith. i'm sorry, kate. it was for keith. >> that's okay. i'm the lead singer and i don't have any vocals here. i do think that this is going to help. it does matter and it doesn't matter as much. i think rick is right absolutely spot on. we're the best looking horse in the glue factory here. whether it's right or not, whether the fed, the ecb, bank of japan, all these guys have their hands in the cookie jar right now. i think you have to focus on quality companies. the volatility will produce

better buying opportunities. i'm still looking to defense and medical tech. anytime there's a pullback, history shows that's a great opportunity if you have the right company in mind. >> jack how do you feel about energy here? >> first of all, i don't think we're a horse in a glue factory. the bottom line is this energy is really what's going to drive this market over the course of the next year. we are going to see surprises out of earnings. everybody is so worried about the bite that we're going to see. we're going to be pleasantly surprised at the end of the year and not only us. there's a revolution going on around the world. i just got back from india. what modi is doing in india is a miracle and lower energy prices will only help that and those are our customers. so i have got a feeling this is going to be one of those years where just like last year we buy these dips especially in the beginning of the quarters, and we find this market making new all-time highs on a quarterly basis. >> jack you just brought it up that word and we're ten minutes into our show here.

we haven't even mentioned earnings. we have more earnings coming out later, keith fitzgerald. are we underestimating the impact those earnings can have on our market and overestimating the impact that monetary policy can have right now? >> i think that's very much the case. now, to the point, i think that the earnings have been set so artificially low as to be laughable so that beats are going to come very quickly and easily whether traders buy in that or not is thor question. but going forward i think we'll see a trillion dollars or more that's going to be a stimulus by virtue of this implicit gas tax credit by low fuel costs that's going to be right to the middle class' pocket. president obama talked about it last night. he completely ignored the real issue, which is cash in the pocket works and i think that's going to hit the registers a quarter or two from now and that's where the surprises will start to come. >> that's right. >> we'll have a little more on where people are spending those savings coming up in a bit. for now, everybody, thank you very much. >> thanks, guys. >> good to see you this afternoon. and we've got about 50 minutes

to go. the dow has turned negative but it's been bouncing around all day. it's a familiar tune for us here so far this year. we'll see what happens with plenty of time still left to go. the s&p still positive by a couple points. the nasdaq just like one. >> it's like the weather in denver, you don't like it now, just wait a couple minutes. and look at netflix. the pros will tell us if today's gains are justify and if netflix is the network of the future. and to do ameritrade's ceo gives us his reaction to the canadian rate cut. that's coming up on "the closing bell." stay tuned. you just got a big bump in miles. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading it's your entire operations,

from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done. ♪ ♪ there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it?

in one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor.

so you take that snapshot right there, the dow up 13 and you think, oh quiet day. man, it has been anything but. we've had a 200-point range on the dow again today, down 120 at one point, up 84. now we're up 13. there are the ten s&p 500 sectors. the only negative today, fred

tom zach will be interested to know, are the financials. everybody else has been positive. by the way, kelly evans, which average do you think hit an all-time high today? >> i'm going to guess -- >> it's a dow average. >> oh, i was going to say is it canada? the transports. >> utilities. lower interest rates. >> sectors that were winning last year continue to win this year. courtney reagan is keeping a pulse on some of the biggest movers for us in this market right now. hi, courtney. >> we're going to go to individual stocks. let's start with united health group. hitting a record high after posting better than expected fourth quarter results benefiting from an increase in profit margins and a surge in premium revenue. the stock trading higher by more than 3%. other health insurers moving higher like aetna, cigna humana. netflix soaring after adding 4.3 million streaming customers. we will have more on that

company coming up. and tootsie roll trading higher on news the ceo has died. this is sparking speculation that the company could be -- >> courtney thank you. i confess i did not know tootsie rool was roll was a publicly traded company until now. canada's central bank today cutting its key interest rate and specifically pointing to the fallout of the nation's xhe fromeconomy from the drop in oil prices. >> we welcome back fred tomczyk from to dod ameritrade. even you were surprised at the canadian national bank cutting rates today. >> yeah. i was surprised by it because it seemed to come out of the blue which we're seeing out of a number of central banks this year. but as you think about it in canada the canadian economy is a tale of two parts of the

country. alberta, sus skach wan are oil and gas denominated, if you go into ontario, it's more manufacturing. if the price of oil was coming down nothing you can do about that. i think it has to be thinking of a way to devalue the currency to increase the attractiveness of the canadian manufacturing sector exporting goods and services. >> it starts to get more into your business. a lot of reaction has been it will be good news ultimately and we can hope the housing hashthmarket will have a soft landing. when the u.s. banks went through the housing and financial crisis, at the time canada said it was your problem, you were deregulation. you were cowboys, we came through it cleanly. is there a risk we see more pressure on canadian financials? >> i think you are seeing more pressure. td bank and royal bank were up today which is surprising when you're cutting interest rates unless you're trading off the dividend yield. but having said that i think the canadian housing market is a

very different structure than the u.s. housing market and so it is different, and it is -- has a lot more insurance to it and support. i think the challenge in the canadian market with housing is really the condo markets in toronto and vancouver, and that's the part everybody is watching. >> you were telling me this during the break. we have been doing this about the same amount of time. in that time the battle has been against inflation. you invest to try to keep up with the inflation rate. is this what deflation feels like, what we're going through now, and what does this do for the average investor? what should they be thinking about as they invest their money? >> i don't think we're going through deflation just yet. i think deflation has certain characteristics. i don't think we're seeing that right now. i think we're seeing a lot of disinflation trends. the price of oil definitely brings down some inflation. i also think with what's going on with technology and all the disruption going on out of silicon valley now that's bringing down prices as well.

i think we have a couple things countering what's going on in the economy that perhaps you don't see in a normal type of situation. >> let's talk for a second about the quarter and the results that you have had, and missed street expectations, still up on the year. it would seem during a time of heightened volatility which has been somewhat more recent but even from the period during the quarterback you would experience more client activity. what happened? >> you know from our estimates and when we looked at bloomberg, we're right on expectations but other people have different numbers. the only difference that i -- some of the analysts on the street had from us calculated trades per day, they estimated 455. we were 457. what happened was there was a mix shift because with all the changes in the price of oil, our mix shift shifted heavily to futures so we were about 6% of trades normally in futures. we were about 9% -- it was up 54 brs 54% year-over-year. that's the lowest commission trade of all of our various instruments. >> the number that got my

attention was asset accumulation during the period. how much was it? >> just under $19 billion. >> i was going to say 18-plus. what are people doing with that money right now? are they hoarding it or are they assuming some risk here? >> they are definitely going into the market. no matter what metric you look at at ameritrade whether it's the investor movement index is relatively bullish, client cash as a percentage of assets net buying activity was over $13 billion in the quarter. up 25% over last year. people are moving into u.s. equities. >> so i have to ask the question then traditionally that would signal that we're closer to a top than a bottom if the retail investor is starting to move into the market at this point. what do you think? >> they've been going into the market now for 20 months or so so -- and it's been a healthy market. i think when you look around the world, it's hard to say where to invest. if you had to pick a spot it would be u.s. equities right

now. >> you sound like jack vogel who said the same thing. thank you so much for being here to explain the various impacts oil is having on your business and have you noticed any recent pickup or change in trend from the volatility we've had so far this year? >> yeah. trades per day month to date are up 487 so they're even higher than they were last quarter. last quarter that 457 is the second best trading quarter in our history. >> wow. >> interesting. good to see you. >> lots of volatility. >> thank you. good to see you again. fred tomczyk. ceo of td ameritrade. the dow is up only 31 points but it's been a volatile day and we now wait not only for earnings but we have that european central bank announcement for tomorrow morning. that really is the big number to watch for tomorrow. >> a strong performance today from the s&p and netflix far and away the best performer on the inflex. the streaming giant posting strong earnings and eye popping expansion projections. that broke on this show right after yesterday's close. >> we have the professionals weighing in on whether netflix

is the future of media and whether the stock's 300% gain over the past three years is justified. we'll do a little stock drawl on netflix netflix coming up. (everyone) cheers! glad you madrawl on netflix coming up. brawl on netflix coming up. thanks again my friends. for everything for all your help. through all life's milestones our trusted advisors are with you every step of the way. congratulations! thanks for helping me plan for my retirement. you should come celebrate with us. i'd be honored. plan for your goals with advisors you know and trust. so you can celebrate today and feel confident about tomorrow. chase. so you can.

she inspires you. no question about that. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any allergic reactions like rash, hives, swelling of the lips tongue or throat or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical

help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. welcome back. indexes moving a little higher today after we were off by 100 points at the lows of the session. the dow adding 33 but it's whipping around that 17,500 mark. the increased volatility has made it a you have toer go for the indexes.

the s&p the best performer in part because of netflix. we reported earnings on the show. 27 cents above estimates. >> presumably that was a fully inflated ball they knocked it out with by the way. it's the biggest performer, look at that. upper left corner is always good. >> i wonder if that's a hey lowe effect on nfx. >> somebody mistaping? let's bring in a bull and a bear on netflix as they gain 17% today. tuna amobi is our bull. edwin is skeptical about this. make the case. you think it could continue. >> it has. we think the stock is at an inflection point, subscriber growth seems to be sustainable. but i think international is actually turning out to be the real story here. we upgraded to a buy today with a 12-month target price at $450. we think that can be justified

by, you know, a variety of factors, not just subscriber growth but in terms of accelerated content, spending in terms of the ability to be able to continue to roll out programming and continue to ramp up we think the profits. >> ed meanwhile, the focus on netflix despite some metrics still remains subscriber growth. is that the reason you're a little more cautious on where they go from here? >> i think netflix is a great company and they've done a great job creating this market and getting consumers to sign up for streaming television but they're forecasting this current quarter's net additions will slow down a little bit, like 1.8 million versus 2.25 million the same period. u.s. subscribers are definitely slowing down and, you know, the newer subscribers we're getting are from lower income families which is a great market to tap into but that just means these customers are going to face choices at some point down the

line when other entrants come in, hbo comes in dish will come out with their own. there will be competition for those customers. international growth is great. i agree with tuna on that point absolutely, but rights for international, you know, content, it's tricky. it's always up in the air. different rules, different places. that can be a factor. that can be sort of a mitigating factor to their growth. >> he's given you a lot to comment on. what about competition and what about the complexity of rights around the world? >> well i have to say that our base case assumes that in the u.s. netflix will actually cede some market share, however it's not difficult to project out and he can trap late international growth which i mentioned earlier. we expect actually in the next four to five years for international subscribers to kind of approach or even outpace, you know, the u.s. subscriber growth. they have talked about significantly accelerating the number of countries there are from 50 to 200.

so this is a company that has articulated a kind of a globalization theme which i think is going to increasingly play into the investment thesis. on the u.s. side we think the "s" curve, that market of 60 to 90 million is still within target just by the competition. in terms of the rights, you know, we think the company has done a pretty good job to start those rights. they've actually provided for the first time a content schedule showing how -- >> that's exactly -- i was going to bring that up, ed because even though you mentioned the competition and serve going to be flooding the zone i wonder if it helps netflix because we're changing our viewing habits in ways they become one the most successful cable channels to launch of up a time. the way their february debut of program something making the rounds on social media is pretty impressive. >> it's definitely helping to drive subscriptions. it's something that hbo figured out a few decades ago. you need to get original

programs to get people to sign up and stay on. amazon is in the same gain. they're producing their own originals and getting into film production. they can get the films in their online window sooner and amazon has a lot of money to spend and they're willing to spend it. that kind of competition will be a factor. i agree, international growth is going to be big but that just means they're going to be subject to, you know currency fluctuations and all that kind of stuff. it's not a full rosy bright spot for them. i think they've done a great job as i said in creating the space and forging the market but that just means everyone else is going to tagalong now. >> are we talking about a disagreement about time frame as well, ed? i hear tuna talking about four to five years down the road the kind of growth they are expecting here. are you more worried about in the interim what headwinds they may face -- >> probably nor in the immediate term. >> if you were to buy it for five-year growth would you be willing -- >> i think a five-year growth button is a great thing to look

at. i'm looking a year or two years out and i think there's going to be stiff competition coming in in the next year or two and even internationally, whether it's amazon or another native player they're going to tap into that market. pay television abroad whether it's europe or latin america or asia is still a relatively new idea. it's easier to try to grab those customers through a streaming service because, you know, it's not -- there isn't sort of already an established player in a lot of places. so, yes, it just means other players probably want to jump into that market. >> so you are looking, tuna five years down the road. would you acknowledge though there may be some stumbles in the meantime some difficulties that they may face for the various reasons that ed is pointing out? >> bill actually our 12-month target price over the next 12 months and we know that netflix is always going to be a bumpy ride. if you're an investor in the stock, you expect that to be the case, but what we're saying is that we think the company has demonstrated the ability to be able to kind of even out all of

these near term risk factors which we still rate as relatively high. keep in mind there's also potential tailwinds on the regulatory side. these are all things. >> that's a definite factor. one of the other things at least from a technical standpoint netflix and other online video services or bandwidth intensive services, you know, they pay the broadband providers what we call interconnection fees. basically the ability to park their servers closer to the service provider so the streaming is more efficient. those fees are relatively nominal right now but they could go up, especially since it's the cable providers paying for all the infrastructure to deliver the service. if those fees go up it could amount to a reverse carriage fee if you think about it. cable companies are just kind of transforming themselves more in broadband providers and they're going to look to get as much margin as they can out of it. >> it's pretty complicated. it's more than just how popular

"house of cards" may be down the road. that's for sure. thank you, both for a constructive conversation on netflix. >> with half an hour to go into the close keeping a close eye on the indexes still in positive territory. newfield also having a strong day. the energy sector has been the outperformer of the day. >> when we come back our weekly beat the street segment. we talk to a top bond fund manager this time around get his take on the hot seat and tell us what he would do to crush his benchmark over the past year and where he thinks it's going down the road. >> and then later american express and ebay have their earnings on deck. we'll tell what you numbers to watch out for today. you will want to keep it here because we know what happens with these two names is going to impact tomorrow's trading. stay tuned.

if you're running a business legalzoom has your back. over the last 10 years we've helped over one million business owners get started. visit us today for legal help you can count on to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here. alright, so this tylenol arthritis lasts 8 hours, but aleve can last 12 hours... and aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. so why am i still thinking about this? how are you? aleve, proven better on pain.

plus signs across the board here today. the dow has had a 200-point range again today.

we've had one every single trading session in 2015. i still find that -- >> that is pretty amazing. it tells you there are a lot of opportunities to be held regardless of what we do on the close each day. >> it shows the conviction on both sides, the buy side and sell side is growing. >> in other words, nobody knows. >> and we wait for the european central bank tomorrow. the yield on the 10-year at 1.86. >> unbelievable. >> and we very calmly point out that the yield on the 30-year bond -- >> as if that were totally normal. >> is well below. >> we are zeroing in on bonds. the invesco corps plus bond fund is up over 7% versus the barclays agg which gained a mere half a percent. >> joining us is michael hyman. thank you for joining us. happy new year. >> thank you for having me. >> i can't think of how many

years it's been that people have been talking about the end of the great bull market for bonds, that we would see a rise in rates. but you have still been betting, especially in the treasury market, that yields would continue lower. why? >> i think when we saw last year, that continued to be the big consensus trade that yields were going to go continually higher. we felt there were a lot of structural pressures in the market that would continue to keep yields low, including the disinflation environment in europe. the really strong technical bid for u.s. treasuries as well as just the aging populations tend to be all disinflationary, and we reallyviewed u.s. rates would not be impact the by u.s. economic performance but by what was going on globally. >> i was looking at what's in your fund and it looks like the biggest chunk is mortgage backed security investment grade bonds, and then treasuries high yield, some -- you have a lot of stuff in here. this means it's a multilayered

bet, isn't it? >> we run a very diverseifyied portfolio. i think specifically if you look at some of the mortgage securities, a large percentage of those are not agency mortgages. one of the big things we like is being focused on u.s. centric risk opportunities and so if you look particularly at the nonagency mortgage sector that's very levered to the u.s. consumer, low interest rates and a decrease in unemployment. so we like nonagency mortgages and try to keep a lot of credit bets as well focused to companies that have u.s. exposure. >> what about european exposure though? would you look at them? are you not allowed or are you just avoiding it because of what's going on over there? >> we do like european exposure particularly in the banks which we feel are a couple years behind the u.s. cycle. if you looked at some of the performance of u.s. financials obviously it's been stellar over the past couple years. we certainly do like the big banks that are deleveraging in europe, particularly down in the

cap structure in that space. >> now, michael, i am just looking here again. your weighted average, effective maturity, 7.5 years, effective duration, 5.3. if the 10-year moves up 1% in other words if we move from 1.8% to 2.8% on the 10-year, what does that do to the value of your fund? >> the fund has a five-year duration. if we get a 100 basis point move -- >> 100 basis points, 1 percentage points. >> the value of the fund would drop 5%. >> 5%. and so is that something you have to worry about? is it a small probability outcome or are you effectively betting the rates stay low or even move lower? >> we manage versus our benchmark which has a 5.2-year duration. we have duration exposure within the fund. we can modulate that up to a couple years to reduce the impact and we certainly will do that if we feel it's prudent and we haven't and that's been a very good decision over the last

couple years. i think one of the things that's important to keep in mind as well is in owning and holding a bond fund is diversification that it provides you versus other holdings that you have in your portfolio. and one of the best hedges to underperformance in equities is essentially duration. and so if you look at even the way the markets have performed this year, our fund is up while equities are down during the course of the year and so if investors have a fear for downside volatility a high quality fund that owns currently 80% to 85% of investment grade securities will proi hadvide a good insulation to volatility. >> on the high yield corporates there will be people to look for a better return on their money. how much risk are you willing to take on to get that yield? >> we can hold up to 20% high yield within the fund. we think that will be one of the opportunities for 2015 particularly in high yield

exposure that's not levered to energy. so we like names like royal car rain ian ribbian, constellation. >> it's the invesco investment grade portfolio management fund. we have michael hyman joining us today. talking about where to invest for income right now. thanks, michael. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> you bet. the corps plus bond fund. that's the name of the fund. got that. heading toward the close. a gain of 45 points on the industrial average. they're waiting for earnings. they're waiting for the european central bank. >> look, netflix earnings mattered last night. a lot of ramifications from that set of results. we'll hear frome bay and american express right after the bell. also raymond james' ceo speaking with us exclusively coming up. find out if he think the european central bank's quantitative easing plan will send stocks no noo a tailspin if

it doesn't let up or give them a giant boost. >> when we come back we will preview the key after hours earnings. we have american express and ebay headlining the list. stay tuned. the lightest or nothing. the smartest or nothing. the quietest or nothing. the sleekest... ...sexiest ...baddest ...safest, ...tightest, ...quickest... ...harshest... ...or nothing. at mercedes-benz, we do things one way or we don't do them at all. introducing the all-new c-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

welcome back. american express earnings are due out in a few minutes. mary thompson is keeping an eye on what investors should be expecting. >> investors will be focused on two key things. first, how does the firm plan to accelerate revenue growth to hit long-term target of 8% growth and second how will it spend the $700 million gain it's booking from the sell of its stake of concurran. revenue is seen deklainclineing in the year ago quarter. with the stock down over the last year, investors want to know if strong holiday online sales pumped up the firm's business in the fourth quarter and if net interest income got a lift from higher loan balances. also want to know if more expense cuts are coming as they look to drive bottom line growth given sluggish results on the top line. bill, back to you. >> all right, mary, thank you very much. the other report we're looking forward to is ebay.

they will be reporting about the same time after the top of the hour. analysts are looking for 89 cents in terms of profitability on revenue of $4.9 billion. it's been a volatile year. this is a one-year chart of ebay. they were -- this is an all-time high early last year and then it's been sideways since that time and today it's down 3/4 of a percent at $53.26 and for the year ebay is down 1.6%. so we'll keep an eye on that and for american express, two different industries, see how they're doing going into the next quarter here. meantime, we have 13 minutes left in the trading session. the dow at this hour is up 47 points. we've got the s&p up 10 the nasdaq up 12. the utilities average meanwhile benefits from those lower interest rates sitting at an all-time even as oil as continued lower. we have the heat map for the s&p 500 index. a little more red than green so

far in today's session. we'll be back with today's "closing bell" after this. i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop? because everyone has retirement questions. ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. to get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. you just got a big bump in miles. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading it's your entire operations, from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done. ♪ ♪

alright, so this tylenol arthritis lasts 8 hours, but aleve can last 12 hours... and aleve is proven to work better on pain than tylenol arthritis. so why am i still thinking about this? how are you? aleve, proven better on pain.

ten minutes. the dow up 42 points. the s&p is up 10 the nasdaq is up 12 but it masks continued

volatility in this market. earlier in the session, we keep pointing this out because it just astounds us the dow had a 20-point trading range, and we have had a 200-point trading range on the dow every trading day this year so far. ja let's get more from david sherman and matt cheslock on the floor. david, right before we get into the point about volatility as well, are you a credit guy? >> i'm primarily a credit guy. >> here is why i ask. i cannot believe the amount of money still going into energy. >> in our mutual funds we had less than 2% exposure coming into the market in energy because it's speculative financing like the telecom was in '02. i like to know if i'm going to lend somebody money, i will get paid back. we have avoided it. what i'm concerned about is people haven't noticed leveraged loans, 17% exposure 15% exposure in energy. if these prices stay down, i don't care if you're the top of the capital structure, if you produce a barrel of oil and you lose money, if isn't-- it isn't good

even at the top. >> matt cheslock, you were suffering through the lack of volatility and now it's back in a big way. what does it say to you to have this kind of volatility -- we haven't seen this kind of volatility since november of '11. so a little over three, four years here in this trade. what do you make of it? >> it's a great trading environment for on-floor traders. we relish these big moves on not a lot of news either. so it's a headline risk is what you're going for. so if you're willing to wait it out and maybe buy a dip and hold it for a little while, you can make some real money. the market has tended to reverse. we've been in a great range on the dow, 17,200 to 18,000. if you're willing to buy 17,200 and hold it through some pain you're seeing some reward. >> are you worries the fall out boys are ringing the bell. >> i wouldn't know who the fall out boys are. my kids may. >> it's interesting you brought

up volatility. if you hold it out you make money. in 2002 when telecom was venture capital finance and the bottom fell out 2003 in high yield was up 28%. so there could be a real opportunity as energy finally falls out to then get long high yield at some point. >> do you like energy? are you willing to -- >> that was the point. i would like to bring up as well. this could be more than a dead cat bounce in energy. there's some real value. some names really moving. if opec gets on board, some of the names will have good gains going into the first couple months. >> tomorrow the european central bank makes the big announcement. we have already heard this report they're going to announce $58 billion a month they're going to buy. their version of quantitative easing. is that enough to help? what do you think that's going to do? >> i have no idea if it's going to help or not. there's all kinds of problems in europe and their quantitative easing situation is different than what we have here. they're not cohesive. i do know this. if i'm a financial institution or an individual trying to earn yield to make money, i'm going

with the currency going down and lower yields. i want to move that money over to u.s. corporate bonds, get a higher yield, a stronger dollar or high paying difficult department stocks in the states. >> it will support it because it means our companies will be able to borrow more and pay out more dividends. >> we have a fund that's shorting investment grade debt because companies are doing that. they're borrowing money and paying dividends, they're buying back stock, pursuing acquisitions. if they don't the activists of last year -- >> are you already shorting that? this could take years to catch up. >> we're short at&t bonds. we're short gap bonds. activists will come in. shareholders will get bigger dividends if you dividends. if you lend money, i don't want my money going to shareholders. >> we'll come back with the closing countdown and see how we do as we get ready for a lot of things still to come. >> a lot more activity. after the bell we get earnings from ebay and american express.

>> and raymond james will be here. we'll get his view from washington to europe. we may even get another surprise rate cut overnight. >> like i said probably half a dozen in just the past week. >> you're watching cnbc first in business word wilde. the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end. unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. it lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. get the future of phone and the phones are free. comcast business. built for business.

hi. pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. and today, we have a very special free gift for you. so many viewers e-mail us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. so we put our secrets into a new book. and if you're one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling we'll send you a copy for free. look at the rate of return we've made on some of our recent options trades versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. there's no comparison. to make the best returns in today's market, you have to learn how to trade options. and our book will show you how to do it for free. jon has been trading options for more than 30 years. pete is one of the top 100 traders in the country. and our book will teach you how to trade options for free. so call now. [ male announcer ] call the number on your screen now for your free copy of jon and pete's new book. that's... (see the number on your screen) call now.

there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. about 2:30 left. let me show you this we've talked about it but let me show you the chart. this is the dow today, first thing this morning 120-point

decline for the industrial average, and this is during the time when europe is still open. so theoretically it's the european traders that are contributing to this. decline of 120, then suddenly a gain of 84 points. so there we are, a 200-point range for the dow today. let me show you a chart now for the dow for year-to-date, since january 1st. look at the volatility. we've had a 200-point range on the dow every single trading day this year so far. i mean that's 14 trading days including today that we've had 200-point trading day. you have to go back to november of '11 to see that volatility again. we'll see what we get tomorrow especially with that announcement coming from the european central bank. we also have earnings coming out after the bell. we mentioned them earlier, american express and ebay. american express is up a half a percent, ebay is down a quarterback percent. the drama builds bob.

what is the european central bank going to say? we got that leak that says it will be $58 billion a month they will be buying. we'll see tomorrow morning and what the market does with it. >> the important thing is it's within the range of what they were expecting. 500 billion euros or 40 million a month would be the minimum. maybe that's enough. the market acted like they were mildly happy about it. first it went up and down then and ult maimately germany ended at a historic high. the bottom line is this we're getting some stability not just in europe but in oil. we're getting some stability in bonds at least the last couple days. >> gold is coming back. >> and also the dollar is starting to look a little tired at this point. if we get a little stability in those areas, when those things get weird, the market gets weird. stability and you see stability in the stock market. >> thank you bob. see you a little later. we'll wait for earnings to come out.

in the meantime the members of the band fallout boy are ringing the closing bell. we have the numbers of motley crue and alice cooper himself coming your way. before then lets get to earnings. see you tomorrow kel. >> thank you, bill. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans and here is how we're finishing another tumultuous session. another day of 200-point moves. we're finishing with the dow moving 41. the nasdaq up half a percent or nine points bolstered as we mentioned by netflix. strong performance there. the nasdaq up a quarter of a percent. 12 points for its part. let's get to it as we wait for some key earnings with today's panel. cnbc contributor jimmy is here. home with kayla tausche and cnbc contributor jon najarian. we have to talk about the

patriots. >> yes. >> first for more on today's market action it's brian kelly. steve grasso is joining us shortly off the floor. i don't know where to start. nobody has talked about the state of the union. i know we're supposed to start with markets a little bit. is there an impact there we're overlooking do you think? >> listen the president had a lot to say, a lot to say about cutting taxes, especially a lot to say about raising taxes on investors. i don't think you're seeing a market reaction because nobody believes it's going to happen. nobody believes they will take up the capital gains. so i guess as to the lack of action, pro market. >> are they doing keystone? is that going to happen? >> i don't think that's going to happen either. >> really? >> i don't think -- they may pass it. i think obama is in no mood to go for anything like that. >> veto was the theme. i bring it up too, because you look at what's happened in energy and i wonder what we're fighting over. is it part of the infrastructure play? part of this idea we need to -- now is the time given the low interest rates to really invest in frsktinfrastructure from pipelines

to bridges and roads and how are we going to fund it? >> you have to wonder too, at what point we'll get real numbers about the effects of lower oil prices if it is not a temporary phenomenon, if we get layoffs, if we get restructurings, if we get some pullback in capital expenditures. at what point would it potentially push washington and push the administration to consider an element of job creation in keystone to offset maybe what we're seeing elsewhere. >> exactly. even if it's just a few jobs the idea is you absorb some of the people who are unemployed from this region. dr. j, how are you playing energy? >> unfortunately, i'm sort of loaded in energy right now, so i'm certainly hoping that -- >> did you buy an oil tanker? >> no but i bought transocean rig. i bought western refining, wnr. some had very nice upside moves today but the year-to-date numbers don't look so good. >> i take it you didn't get in today. >> no. this for that cnbc playbook playoff we do, i did it for

that. overall i do like the space and i do think many of these names are severely oversold. however, am i claiming that we're at the bottom? not necessarily, although i agree with you. not about keystone because i don't know that tar sands, that we really need to create something to ship that's not going to be mined very actively anymore but instead the natural gas pipelines out of the shale plays, instead of flaring it off, create a bunch of jobs to bring those natural gas fields into play for our country and that's huge. >> and capture that. the reason i bring it up as well is oil seems to be the protagonist protagonist, if you will, in all of these moves that global central banks are making. canada today is the latest but it comes off a week where we have seen moves by canada peru denmark, the swiss move obviously, even going back to india which got very little attention at the time. are we going to expect more of this? >> i think you can expect more from every central bank in the

world. everybody is basically saying please don't hold our currency. please go and hold something else and right now it looks like the u.s. dollar is probably going to be it. if you get a stronger dollar and you continue to have this supply in oil, you will get much lower oil prices. my guess is we're in some kind of a range at this point in time. let's call it $70 on the high side, although those looking pretty high at this point. $40 on the low side. you can turn those rigs on pretty quick but if you get a very strong dollar there's no reason why oil couldn't go to $30 a barrel and if you guys are talking about infrastructure projects and whether or not the congress would fund it i think it would take $5 oil. you have to have a massive crisis to get anything done in washington, d.c. >> $5 oil. anyone want to go out on a limb on that one? >> not today. >> we're getting earnings coming through from american express. you can see they're a slight beat it looks like on the bottom line, a bigger beat on the top line. steve grasso is joining us off the floor here as well. how about that action in netflix

today? is this going to continue to be a story about individual stocks powering this market forward? >> yeah i mean every market is the same way, right? so i would guess that you start to see people try to take a little bit off the table because people are worried about valuations across the board on the macro market so they start selling stocks they think are a little bit bloated in valuation. >> now, hang on one second. let's get the details on this report. we'll come right back to you in a moment. american express results. >> it looks like american express beat results by a penny, $1.39. analysts were looking for $1.38. the revenue number looks like a blowout at first glance. the company saying it reflects the gain of $719 million, $435 million after tax of that stake of its sale in concur which was an online travel agency. the company said that card member spending increased by 6% during the quarter and the better than expected results were helped not only by the gain

but an increase in card member spending and higher net interest income. just a quote from the ceo, solid results reflected the underlying themes that have characterized our performance throughout 2014, higher card member spending increased loan balances tight control of operating expenses and a substantial return of capital to shareholders. >> not a bad return on equity either. steve grasso going back to you, your reaction on american express. >> the big thing for them is their mobile numbers because that's where you see the real growth. they partnered up -- they're doing jvs with uber or whether it's apple pay. i think you will see that, that's the number to look at. can they make the transition into mobile effectively when we see these numbers year-over-year up 30% on traffic and mobile from thanksgiving to cyber monday and then in sales up 22%. what's going to be the share of american express they pull there. on a technical basis though they don't look as good as mastercard or visa.

they don't look as good as the other players in the space but it seems like if they could start ramping up where the yucker generation is spending american express has always been an older person spending on that card. if they could start getting into business with the likes of apple and uber i think that's a great thing they could do for their brand. >> an older but more creditworthy customer than some of the other networks because millennials are still in a credit-building phase. not necessarily the sterling borrower that american express would see borrowing. 8% increase in spending by card members. when you think about what the banks saw in loan growth and in some of their spending portfolios, we're not seeing a gain like that. so this is really a sign of consumer confidence that they are spending more on their credit cards. they are doing more transactions that potentially some of the savings that they might be getting from lower gas prices could be helping the credit card companies as we have suggested for the last few weeks. >> brian, was that you trying to

get in there? >> i would just say one with american express they tend to have a much more affluent customer base, so it's good news for the affluent consumer out there. but in terms of this earnings season, the key is the conference calls for all of these. don't get too excited off this first pop because we've seen some big moves when the conference call comes on. >> although you would admit that 8% growth number, that's a robust number. >> that's a good number, absolutely. >> that's one dr. j, i guess people will have to decide if they think it's sustainable. it would be great if it was a sign we might see double digit growth going forward. ja joo ja. >> that revenue number stands out. the roe was better but the revenue number is what people will sort of be buying into tomorrow if this after hours small pop turns into a bigger pop tomorrow. >> jimmy, it goes back to the idea is there actually credit expansion happening in this economy and if so is it just in certain pockets and what do you make of the -- >> that's what we've been

looking for. we've had a recovery. we're looking for every sign we can find the broadening hopefully the oil prices would help that broadening by increasing real incomes. i expect it will. i certainly expect this will be the best year overall and some broad prosperity since before the great recession. this is another sign of somewhat good news. >> was the president right to strike -- it was a little bit of a victory lap. didn't it come off that way or was it just me? he's saying the badtimes are over. we've moved beyond the not so great recovery and now i will do all the things maybe i would have loved to have done in twine had i not had a deal with the great recession. so sort of now the real obama term finally begins here in 2015. >> and he's got a terrible record of getting through anything that -- any of his initiatives. he's one of the worst presidents as far as getting through his initiatives and i don't think it's going to be any easier when he's giving up control of congress on the other side kelly. >> other than a massive reorganization of health care and the financial sector he's got nothing done.

>> that was when we had democratic control though as well. it was a big difference from what he's looking at going forward. >> absolutely, guys. thank you. we'll leave it right there for the time being. steve grasso thanks for joining us. brian kelly. much more coming up on "fast money" at 5:00. the latest from ebay's earnings conference call that's supposed to start right around then. stay tuned for all of that. coming up, jamie dimon making the case for a big stimulus plan from europe's central bank. >> i think mario draghi has done a great job and i hope it works. i think they should probably do something. >> jeff cox isn't so convinced. he doesn't think it will work and he'll explain why next. and the national average for gasoline falling to just about $2 a gallon. so where exactly are americans spending the extra cash? now we've got some numbers, and you will, too, if you stick around to find out. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities.

we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

have you heard of the new dialing procedure for for the 415 and 628 area codes? no what is it? starting february 21, 2015 if you have a 415 or 628 number

you'll need to dial... 1 plus the area code plus the phone number for all calls. okay, but what if i have a 415 number, and i'm calling a 415 number? you'll still need to dial... 1 plus the area code plus the phone number. so when in doubt, dial it out! welcome back. we begin with breaking news on kinder morgan. >> so while the company is also releasing earnings, that's not the headline. kinder morgan agreeing to buy highland partners for $3 billion, including debt from harold ham.

highland partners is a crude oil gathering and transportation pipeline found largely in serving the backkken region. >> activity is picking up. courtney, thank you. the european central bank is expected to launch a massive stimulus as early as tomorrow. jeff cox is skeptical it will do any good. why do you say that, jeff? >> it's the old pushing on a string story. do you remember on "jaws" when the slich says you're going to need a bigger boat? the same advice could apply to mario draghi who may need to go bigger and longer on his plans for quantitative easing. now, market expectations are for about a half a trillion euros in quantitative easing. reporting i have done on this indicates that the market may clamor for even more. one quick example came today. we saw when the headlines moved about the probable size ofq e qe.

on further review garden variety qe will not make that much of a difference in the financial markets. the stakes are huge tomorrow for mr. draghi. the eurozone is on the cusp of deflation. market volatility is on the rise. so with all that in mind it's very likely the ec b president is going to have to double down on his whatever it takes pledge. >> well that would be interesting as well if what it takes isn't taking. stay right there, jeff. more with dennis gartman joining the conversation now, publisher of "the gartman letter." dennis, great to have you here. i see from your note you think whatever happens tomorrow, investors will ultimately be disappointed so you agree with jeff? >> i do. as in so many cases in life size counts and we're going to end up seeing mr. draghi will not be able to do what the market really wants him to do. he needs to get the balance sheet of the ecb back to $3 trillion where it was several years ago. the problem that he has is that he doesn't have the ammunition

or he doesn't have the capability to get it there. he doesn't have the debt securities the broad federal debt securities that we have here in the united states or which the bank of japan has or which the bank of china has. he has 19 different treasury securities from which to buy. that makes his life very difficult. he would like to get it done. size counts size matters, but i'm not sure he can get the size accomplished. and so it will probably be a bit of a disappointment but at least let's say he'll give it a good college try. >> i just wonder looking at the reporting from the journal citing this $50 billion a month that's exactly the kind of open-ended action that the bulls are going to want. they're going to say it gives them flexibility, we can hit a $1 trillion or $2 trillion or more figure over time dennis. from that point of view from simply the market point of view isn't it too soon to tell? >> well first of all, let's give him credit for being able to accomplish anything. this is a very contentious group of people, of countries, that he

has to try to get together. the germans oge arebviously are not going to be happy at all. there will be some disappointment but i applaud him for getting what he will get done done. that will help the european economy, no ifs, ands or buts about it. you are likely to get a small bounce any bounce that you get in the euro predicated upon disappointment in tomorrow's commentary, tomorrow's action any rally you get in the euro is to be sold into. >> i wonder if anything if the euro was rally on disappointment. hang on. pause the conversation for a moment because ebay's quarterly results are hitting the tape. hi josh. >> kelly, ebay just reporting 90 cents here on $4.92 billion. the street was looking for 89 cents on $4.93 billion. just kelly, looking through the divisions, marketplace $2.3 billion.

payments total revenue, $2.2 billion. looking ahead at q1 ebay saying look for revenues -- the full year was above estimates. this conference call starts at 5:00 p.m. we'll be on the call and bring you head linelines as they come. >> the guidance stinks just like josh said. he's spot on. the guidance is terrible out of ebay. first quarter guide sense probably good for multipercent sell-off in the after hours unless they have something else positive on the conference call kel. they're doing what a lot of folks are doing right now which is they're giving a weak guide for the first -- for the upcoming quarter but keeping the full year in place hoping that things really start kicking in. >> that's not a theme i like to hear. >> no. and i think they're going to be punished for it like many of these other stocks are punished. it's a very small negative guide by ffi v and that stock is down almost $17.

in the afterhours. so ebay offering a negative guide like this is not good. >> you know there was some speculation that potentially the company could give weak guidance but because it's splitting off pay pal, because it has that to look to that perhaps that's really what it's focused on and that would give the company a little bit of cover in the next couple quarters because that's something that would potentially provide a windfall or provide more focus in the near term but, gosh to have outlook like they have down by a dime for next -- it's not good. >> maybe it's one of those tricks, jimmy, you decide it's not going to be a good number so we might as well make it a real bad one. why they didn't want to follow suit for the rest of the year is another question. >> get the bad news out and everything after that seems like sunshine. we already have the bad news behind us. >> i'm trying to do my part for ebay. >> kayla did the best part. >> one active consumer at a time. >> kayla brings up the good point which is with the spinoff pending it will not be hurt as

badly as a miss of this sort and the weak guidance would have hurt them otherwise because some people will still be betting that the split up and the pay pal unit splitting off will be able to hold a bottom of the stock. >> what i meant is i was ordering books on ebay but $2 here and $3 there really aren't moving the needle. how many people are using ebay like me anymore in the sense of trying to find a unique item from a while back -- >> i think most people are probably using amazon. i think it's pretty unique to you. >> i have already cleared out all my old comic books. >> the inventory is already out there. all right. keep an eye on ebay moving around again after hours on that weak guidance. we will send it out to courtney reagan. >> shares of t-mobile and sprint spiking into the close. the blog site the information saying google may become a wireless carry and use both to power the service, t-mobile and sprint. if we can take a look and see on

the board although we may not have it. it looks like t-mobile was up about 2%. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much courtney. a lot of big moves after hours. and meanwhile, against all of this gasoline prices keep plunging, and those savings are fueling some spending by consumers. you might be surprised at how exactly americans are spending. we're going to talk about that next. we heard a lot about middle class tax cuts during the state of the union last night. why didn't president obama make a real pitch for corporate tax reform reform? that question going around wall street today. we'll talk about some possible reasons why coming up on "the closing bell." aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. see why speed matters,

at aflac.com.

you just got a big bump in miles. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading it's your entire operations, from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done.

♪ ♪ welcome back. stocks are moving after hours, ebay included. we have more with josh lipton. >> kelly, some more news here from ebay in this release. one, they're talking about the first quarter. ebay saying they plan to reduce their workforce globally by about 2,400 positions. that's 7% of total workforce. that's across marketplaces, pay pal, and ebay enterprise. talking about ebay enterprise they also say they're going to be exploring strategic options for ebay enterprise. they say it's become clear that it has limited synergies either business in a separation would allow both to focus exclusively on their core markets. another bit of news the company says it has announced a standstill agreement with investor carl icahn, the company's largest active shareholder.

in addition to certain corporate governance provisions ebay saying after the spinoff the agreement appoints icahn check executive to its board. >> we should mention shares stemming some losses on that additional news. we'll send it out to courty reagan for more. >> we're not done yet. check out f5 networks. the stock moving lower after the company posted mixed first quarter results, beating earnings but missing on revenue. it gave weak guidance. the stock currently trading down almost 13%. a different story for sandisk. posted better than expected fourth quarter results. and announced a $2 million stock buyback. >> thank you for now. plunging gas prices are padding consumer wallets but where are they spending the extra money. cnbc.com's editor-at-large eric chemmy found out and joins us

now. >> everybody think that is just because people save money on gas, they're immediately going to rush into stores and start spending all this money or the other theory is they're going to save it it's going into their pocket and it's like a tax cut. we actually according to this exclusive data we got, they can track people's banking cards and krrds credit cards, we saw neither of those things happen. the second hypothesis they would save the money, that's not true. they saved $18 a month on gas prices. they spent $45 more on everything else so their total spending went up by $27 from 2013 to 2014 and most of that money was spent on e-commerce sites and fast food. >> but not ebay. >> it's a multiplier effect. >> exactly. >> people feel better -- >> you're drooling. >> they feel better about gasoline so beyond the gasoline prices they will spend more. >> first off, they bought more gas. they went from 31 gallons a month to 33 gallons a month.

then they felt so good yeah they wasted twice as much of their savings. >> feeling better about america. >> not to mention wages contracted in detioncember. >> exactly. and we talked about looking at health care premiums went down a little bit. >> to the background here as well, so we've talked with some of the retailers and the overall shopping data for the holiday season was great but not really great. we're saying wait a minute where is some of this extra money really going, and so i was asking about is it health care premiums, mobile phone plans, is it people paying down debt? what did you find? >> it's not so much health care premiums but more about mobile phones going up about 3%. it's paying off debt. that's up a couple percent, but those things -- >> but it's not health care premiums? >> health care premiums actually went down a little bit. about $4 a month on average. but those things you don't buy on your credit card. there's a lot of inertia. you don't have a daily decision to decide do i go to mcdonald's and do i get that extra big mac. it's the daily decision choices that go up.

>> love it. eric, thank you for being here. much more information on cnbc.com. eric chemi. appreciate it. more breaking news and more job cuts coming from american express. >> that's right, kelly. american express spokesperson telling cnbc the company plans to cut 4,000 jobs this year. it's a gross number. they're going to be hiring selectively in some areas. again, american express keeping a tight control on expenses and cutting 4,000 jobs. again, this will happen over the course of the year. the conference call starts at 5:00 today. we're going to have probably hear some additional details on these job cuts but this comes after american express came out with earnings a penny ahead of estimates. >> it comes after ebay has reported a similar size in terms of cutting jobs. president obama taking aim at companies keeping profits overseas during last night's state of the union address. >> let's close loopholes so we stop rewarding companies that keep profits abroad and reward those that invest here in america. >> but my next guest says the

president missed a huge opportunity to champion corporate tax reform and that could bring all the money home to spur job growth and wage growth. we'll talk about that. and here is something to feel good about. rockers motley crue are going to be here to announce their last ever show. and did you know by the way, apple co-founder steve woz ni yak played a big role in their career. you'll hear more about that and much more coming up on "the closing bell."

and here is something to feel closing bell."

welcome back. a lot was addressed in the state 69 union last night but not corporate tax reform. not one word about it despite a drum beat in the halls of congress and wall street to do something to bring massive amounts of money back to the u.s. republican strategist sara faggan calls it a missed opportunity and she joins us now. this isn't something the president is going to get up there and stand for or should it have been. >> it should have been. it was a huge missed opportunity and quite anti-climactic in the washington area. the president and his aides have been talking about this with leaders in congress for weeks. so everyone was expecting him to take this step and call for

broadening the base but also potentially lowering the rates. what's particularly odd about this kelly, is that his treasury secretary, jack lew, came out today and talked about many of the things that i just mentioned. >> that's what i was -- yeah. sorry, sara, i was going to say to jimmy who is here with us as well, is it because he wanted to designate this -- i'm sorry deg gate delegate this or should we have got an message about it? >> right. people in the administration believe we should have corporate tax reform but what was last night? last noutight was a performance. it was about obama talking about the middle class and to most middle class people they don't get it why corporations which have record profits and the dow is up why do corporations -- how does that help me? i think lower corporate taxes helps workers but this was about the middle class. democratic polling shows when you ask voters they think minute wage is pro growth not

corporate tax cuts. >> sara? >> i think that's right. it was a performance. to some degree it was about setting up the argument for the next election which is pretty stunning for a guy who is not ever going to be on the ballot again. i do think though what's really troubling about this is leaders lead, and you bring your party along and the rest of the country. and he had a real opportunity last night to say to democrats and to say to the country, you know, yes, the middle class is important. we need to do more. but in order to be successful we've got to look at this from a big picture and democrats are going to have to give some and republicans are going to have to give some. >> i'll be honest -- >> he's unwilling to do that. it's stunning. >> if we had a republican president, i'm still not sure we could pass corporate tack reform reform. broadening the base means there will be acot lot of companies with tax breaks that are important to them. it's extremely complex. dave camp former chairman of the house ways and means.

his corporate tax plan was not good. >> where would you put the odds, 10%? >> a slugger's chance. >> i'd say it's lower today than it was yesterday. look mitch mcconnell and john boehner are two people you can get a deal with and maybe it's not as big as or bold as many on the right would like but they could have gotten something, and they could have done -- they could have lowered the rates, broadened the base and done it in a revenue neutral way. >> sara fagen, thank you. good to see you this afternoon. >> you too. >> want to draw your attention to ebay moving afterhours. comments from carl icahn indicating support but what are investors really say being this 1234. >> there are two things investors are watching. first of all, they authorized an additional 2 billion buyback plans. they have $1 billion left in the existing plan. it means its total capacity $3 billion to buy back stock. it's going through a

transformational period. the other thing they're watching is this fact ebay bale lookssically look like a carve out story. you have three parts of the company, pay pal, enterprise which it says it will spin off or ipo, or sell altogether. people have already been talking about what happens to the marketplace's business which is the original sort of the vintage business that ebay has. the slowest growing business. >> that's what they're going to be left with. >> are public investors going to buy that stock in that standalone unit? so the question probably will be invigorated whether ebay is a complete carve out, whether any of these unitings wills will stand alone. >> keeping an eye on ebay and sending it out to courtney reagan for an earnings update. >> kelly, here is two more companies out with earnings after the bell. discover financial moving lower in the after hours. the company posting weaker than expected fourth quarter earnings. the stock currently trading down

by 3.5% or so and then xilinx third quarter beat by a penny but sales coming in weaker than expected. xilinx is trading down by 5% at this point. kelly, back to you. >> all right. a you have to session there, courtney. and a rough earnings season so far for financials. we'll talk with the ceo of raymond james to get his take on what's happening ai don't saycross the sector. and the end is near for motley crue. they have announced their final concert ever and they've signed a binding contract to make sure it really is the last one. motley crue coming up. i already see them out here on the floor on "the closing bell." [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud

computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

welcome back. financial services firm raymond james reporting its earnings just out this hour. downer joining joining me is the joe paul riley reilly. >> we had record assets under administration. record assets under management. record net loans, added 71 net financial advisers. so the basic parts of the business, the drivers, were all up, so that's a good portent into the future in an uncertain market as everybody talks about what's happening with interest rates in the market. >> i want to talk about rates but what about the capital

market portion? why the challenges there? >> first, people are worried, we do have a practice in canada and the u.s. that's strong in the energy sector and certainly that's been off a little bit. even though if it stays down m&a activity will pick up that will lag. that's been a little challenging. financings have been challenging. m&a and sales and trading have been good but the markets have been lumpy. >> we hear a lot of talk about people either on the equity side or the credit side wanting to nibble and get involved but how long realistically do you think it's going to be before we see people looking for opportunities, a bottom in the energy market and that pickup in m&a activity you mentioned. >> who knows when the bottoms will come. most of the analysts say we have a good 12 to 18 months to ride through it but at these levels we're very comfortable with our limited exposure we have in our bank and m&a activity maybe a

quarter to two quarters until that picks up. a big deal was announced already today in the energy sector. could be quicker. >> where do you think your firm then looks to offset -- look if energy was the story, if commodities were the story for the last four or five years and it was real estate before that what's the hot area now? where is the growth? where are you going to put your resources? >> well, you know one thing we do is we stay long-term focused. if it rides down for a while, we'll ride with it. so the good news is almost over two-thirds of our revenue is the private client group and we're up in assets and up in advisers. productivity is at an all-time record and continues to rise. that's the biggest driver of our business. bank loans are up. and so as long as spreads hold that will continue to drive, and the capital markets business although very good businesses are the other third. so they have less impact even though they are a little more lumpy. >> i'm curious bringing up some of those clients. you have a ton of advisers as you mentioned.

and where are clients putting their money or being told to? is it in equities? are they in bond funds? is it hybrids? is it tax protected kinds of accounts? where are the really interests in the flows today? >> flows are heading back to real estate. certainly flows came out of energy although personally i put some of my money into energy given these prices. i think cyclically they're down and will come back. the secret for a client is they're not going to outtrade institutions. they've got to keep a diversified portfolio and look long term so if you look at relative xhodcommodity prices they're relatively low. where are they going to be in three to five years. you have to take that kind of horizon. if you try to outtrade the institutions, the individual client doesn't do well. we tell them to stay diversified. you can't make bets on any one sector and long term you will do fine. >> if you have to roughly tell us, what would be the break down for people between stocks and

bonds? is it overwhelmingly bonds these days and fixed income or is it still a healthy portion of stocks? >> well, if you looked at the average, which is dangerous because each individual is an individual of one, you know, stocks is still the biggest portion and then fixed income and cash but you have retirees that are -- have been locked in to fixed income for a while, they're doing fine. you have got people that are still looking for growth because they're younger, either building their net worth or early on retirement that has to last them a long time and they will be more weighted to equities. so you really do have to do an individual financial plan for each person because their goals, their needs, their challenges are all different. >> in this environment certainly a reminder of that. paul, thank you for being here this afternoon. the ceo of raymond james as they report earnings. really appreciate it. coming up elton john once saying sorry seems to be the hardest word but not all for one fund manager who lost all his clients' money.

his apologies is burning up the hot list. still to come, school is very much in these days. we've got motley crue joining us. alice cooper the opening acted for that tour and motley crue is in the final months ever of touring. they're going to tell us about it and why they made the decision when we come back. you just got a big bump in miles. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you you're a whole airline... and it's not a ticket you're upgrading it's your entire operations, from domestic to international... which means you need help from a whole team of advisors. from workforce strategies to tech solutions and a thousand other things. so you call pwc. the right people to get the extraordinary done. ♪ ♪

well it's rare that an apology will drive people to the web but that's exactly what was happening on cnbc.com today. this was no ordinary apology and our site's managing editor allen wastler is here to tell us why. >> kelly, even this ebay news couldn't jostle this from the number one spot on the website today. owen lee wrote a letter to shareholders about the performance of his fund. he had $100 million of their money back in march. now it's down to $200,000. in his letter he said he was truly sorry, but the money is gone. he was a little bit overly aggressive. he hopes they'll understand. the story has been burning it up all day long. it's a really good story. we've also gotten a lot of traction out of the davos interviews coming out of switzerland. the one that's leading the pack is the interview with jamie dimon, the ceo of jpmorgan

chase. him talking about the biggest sin in america is how we aren't graduating enough inner city and minority kids out of high school. he points out that their dropout rate is about twice that for white students. that's getting a lot of attention on the website which makes me feel heartened about our audience. and third the twitter verse is going nuts over this patriot deflation gate thing. you have heard about how they're accused of deflating the balls in the championship game. and there's a corporate angle. krispy kreme doing a tweet saying, hey, ours are fully filled. and, of course the michelin man coming out and inflating footballs, showing people how to do it. great stuff there. that's it kelly. >> allen, thank you. i'm looking at dr. j here. tell us this football deflation thing. is this a long standing thing? >> this was the first that any of us had heard of it was this weekend, but apparently the same thing happened at a game in november, one of their linebackers or one of the people who intercepted a tom brady pass did about the same thing back

then kelly, saying boy, the baugh feels a little soft and to have a majority of those balls be soft doesn't seem accidental and given the history with and you can understand that this could be costly to them unfortunately. a lot of pressure on the nfl to respond. we haven't heard from them. it's just been reported the status. super bowl coming up puts them in a delicate position. >> yeah it will be even more watched now. >> that's probably true. as we keep an eye on ebay naming two picks to the board, the icon will be on halftime tomorrow right here on cnbc. about 12:30 eastern time so be sure to tune in to all of that. straight ahead, we're going to trade in one crue for another. motley crue joins me right here

on the closing bell.

we needed 30 new hires for our call center. i'm spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast? go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over 30 of the web's leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. you put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter.com/offer2.

welcome back on december 31st of this year after 34 years of performing together motley crue is calling it quits.

the final tour will mark the end on new year's eve with a performance at the staple's center in los angeles. joining me now is tommy lee and welcome this is a first experience here for us and we know that so many viewers are interested in you guys and the long career you had and the way you've decided to keep yourselves from performing together. why are you signing this contract to never perform together again. >> we didn't want to be that band that you go see your favorite band like ten years later and there's maybe one guy in the band and you're playing clubs and state fairs and things like that. we want to be remembered as going out on top and doing it our way. >> you seem to be having a good time after being been through a lot in the past together. so why not keep it going? >> it's just a decision that we made and we figured after 35 years people are -- had enough

of it. that's about it. >> a lot of people are saying thank god they're calling it a day. >> i don't know. what happened to rock and roll? i was reading some of the interviews where you say nobody performs like they used to. why do you think that is? >> they don't listen to enough rock and roll. they listen to the prefabricated stuff. i don't know. it's weird. things change you know. >> everyone is depressed these days. >> i guess. >> seems new bands are learning to whistle before they learn how to play a guitar solo. >> listen whistling can be a great effect. one thing i loved as well about how you guys launched your career involved steve of apple in 1982 and what was the tour he sponsored. oh my gosh. look at this. why was that so formittive? >> there was 360,000 people there. it was like the biggest collection of rock and roll

bands. it was van halen and ozzie and scorpions and us and the list went on and it was a huge day and for us we were actually doing songs from shout the devil before shout the devil even came out. so we were koing songs nobodydoing songs nobody even knew. >> i guess they like what had they heard. >> mt. meantime you moved on to other endeavors. you have a ton of different enterprises but how do you decide to protect your publishing library from here on? how do you make those decisions? isn't there a movie coming out? where might i find you next? >> motley crue movie out. we have been protective and smart with our licensing. we did a great deal with dodge last year. >> motley crue and dodge? >> yeah. >> what was that conversation like. >> think about it the life styles, the dodge brothers and what dodge represents and the challengers and chargers and

motley crue is similar and that's the stuff we have been doing a lot. and home sweet home and connected. man, we crew up with you and now we're buying houses. >> do they call you sell outs for doing those kind of things? >> i don't know. went from wrecking houses to buying houses. i don't know what's happened. >> exactly. when you think as well about the way you signed this contract to not perform together what happens next year if you want to make music? is everybody on his own? >> well we can make music. tommy is going to do music and nikki has 6:00 a.m. and i have a solo band and you'll be hearing music from you us but not together. >> there's fine print that says we're not allowed to talk to

each other for one year. >> no is there really? i don't know if i believe you. >> we actually may have put that in there. >> to protect yourself. >> we signed it because making the announcement that we were going to end our touring career after 35 years we knew everybody would go they'll be back in five or six years and the truth is we're not so that was a way for us to do something legally that would bind us from ever touring together. >> home sweet home is often the song that's last in the set. >> yeah. >> that you mentioned. i can't believe who was saying in one piece as well that it is emotional for you guys. it would be 35 years if you stayed through next january 16th or 17th? >> new year's eve is the last show. but we'll have our 35th birthday on the 17th. >> where can people find if they want to get the tickets? all of that information is available? >> it's all at motley.com.

all our tickets and presale packages and stuff. >> i want to ask because this comes down to money and how we're managing and all of that. what are the biggest mistakes you guys made money wise that you learned from and lived through. >> getting married. >> is that it. >> everybody agree? investment-wise? business decisions? anything like that come to mind? >> i remember early on a financial manager we had always said play it safe and we're not really play it safe kind of guys but in that department we listened pretty good and the biggest overhead that motley crue ever had wasn't our houses or cars or lifestyles. we invested in ourself. we spent tens of millions of dollars on our shows where we really didn't have to but it's left this legacy of being one of these massive touring bands. >> oh yeah we see the pay off

now. guys thank you for being here. coming down to the new york stock exchange. good luck with the rest of it. we'll be following along for sure. past money is coming up in a few minutes. another crue awaits. >> i got my own every night five days a week. amazon getting upgraded and we'll start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city times square, i'm melissa lee. ebay american express sandisk all out with earnings. plus the details on ebay's agreement with carl icahn but tonight's first story, reversal of fortune trades. stocks seeing a change in the new year like netflix, amazon and ebay. let's kick it off with netflix. the stock was down 25% in the last three months of 2014. today it closed up 17% on the back of earns. guy adami