tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC January 23, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EST
4:00 am
welcome to worldwide exchange live from davos and london. >> i'm seema mody. thank you for tuning in. here are your headlines from around the world. >> draghi does deliver. stock investors cheer. the 1 trillion qe package as the euro falls below 113. executive board member tells cnbc in an interview the market reaction justifies the bank's
4:01 am
action. >> it is encouraging. it shows that the program is credible but it's obviously too early to tell. and what mattered for us was inflation. >> saudi arabia's king abdullah dies at age 90 following weeks of hospitalization for pneumonia. he's immediately replaced by his brother sending oil shares higher. >> telefonica is in talks with hutchison for $15 billion. >> telefonica confirms it's in talk with hutchison to sell it's business for more than $15 billion and it's payday for
4:02 am
lloyd blankfein. he will join the crew on squawk box later this morning. you won't want to miss it. manufacturing and purchasing managing index for major european countries have been coming out today. we heard from germany. january pmi falling below 51.7. composite pui 52.2. they cut it at the fastest rate in years. not as bright as initially expected. the euro zone economy began in better shape than expected but firms were forced to slash prices. that's a day after they announced the massive bond
4:03 am
buying program. the euro is dipping lower breaking 113 now trading at 112. 1.1281. that's the trade. how much lower will the euro go against the u.s. dollar given the response from the ecb? mario draghi's massive bond buying program. some currency experts were saying the euro could trade in pairdy with the u.s. dollar. a level it's not traded at since november of 2002. we'll continue to keep an eye on the euro/dollar trade. plus the story out of saudi arabia, they call for unity and solidarity for countries as he vows to maintain the same approach as his predecessor. this news coming in after the saudi king abdullah did die and the new ruler coming in is salman. to keeping a look at that story
4:04 am
and what to expect going forward. >> this morning has been the implications of that bond buying program. the european central bank launched a landmark quantitative easing program. out to you, you have been speaking on their response of whether it will be enough to revive the euro zone economy. what have they been telling you? >> well it's interesting. it is bigger than many expected. markets of course rallying on the back of it too while the euro took a leg down now. mario draghi revealed the ecb would buy 60 billion euros worth of public and private sector bonds starting in march. it will run through end of 2016 until inflation is picking up pace. key element there. the president said the bulk of the risk would be shouldered by national central banks. >> so on one hand we wanted to
4:05 am
keep -- we want to keep the principle of the risk sharing in place and that's why we want the 20% and on the other we want a decision that would mitigate the concern that many participating countries in your area have about the unintended physical consequences of potential developments in the future. >> now we've stolen jeff from squawk box for a few moments. he has been speaking to him from the ecb. what did you get the sense of if we're looking at a weaker euro here then job well done. >> i think the market is listening to this interview and what's interesting is i address addressed the euro question with them. the ecb doesn't like talking about the euro but i said there are those economists saying we
4:06 am
go sub parody. he didn't say it shouldn't go down that quickly. he basically said we don't pick a target which to my mind says to the market help yourself guys. off you go. we've sent you the message that we're very comfortable. let's also talk about what he said on the market reaction as well. this was fascinating. the ecb is always a little careful about how it talks about different markets. it doesn't want to be seen as an active market participant although inevitably it is but he's telling me that the market's response was pretty much what they would have liked to have seen. that to me suggests he believes the market has validated the ecb's announcement. let's listen to what he said. >> it is encouraging. it shows that the program is
4:07 am
credible but it's obviously too early to tell. we're only one day after and what matters at the end for us is inflation and not market reaction. o so we have to see it feeding through to the european economy. lifting inflation eckxpectations and creating for growth. >> he was very gracious with his time. we covered quite a lot of topics. inchud including the german position and the oil price. there's a lot in here that will come out through the fullness of the day as we continue to find out where the market feels comfortable with european assets in the light of this big move but we also talked about greece because this is a big headline event over the weekend and i suggest you may be heading off there very shortly. >> flight on sunday. >> flight on sunday so buried within that announcement as you know as our audience knows was this message to greeks if you stay with the package, if you
4:08 am
continue to stay with the euro block, we'll continue to stand by you because at the moment there's a question as to whether greek debt will be part of this purchasing program. i asked him about that. let's hear what he had to say. >> greece will remain part of the single currency. i have no doubt about that. the message to greece is not a new message or a message to greece only. it's to all euro zone countries. if you want the ecb to take your bonds as collateral and be in a position to buy your bonds, you need that program and this is because we need to see the dynamics of reform and this has nothing to do with the election. the election is a political discussion. reforms will be different. >> so there you go. and obviously we will spend the
4:09 am
weekend waiting to find out which way the greeks are going to go. >> what i find interesting about this is the bond purchases begin in march so the talk we were having yesterday is whether or not we can see an agreement between the government in greece in order to be able to qualify in march but that issue of cap is a problem. so until greece's bonds roll off in the s&p program they're above that cap. so we'll still have a gap i think between marchand july of this year for the ecb's bonds can buy. if we have some shenanigans over trying to form a government here watch greek bonds. >> programming will be compelling after the sunday election process. >> absolutely. >> which you will be there and covering it for us. we'll look forward to that. one more thing i want to do is tease up the fact that i have a big panel coming up. 1300 cbt.
4:10 am
we'll do this live. fantastic guests on the panel. george osborne will be there. the bank of italy. luis from the spanish finances ministry and the german finance minister and he hasn't been a huge fan with many other germans to it will be interesting to get his take on this platform. >> it was fascinating with the policy makers i was speaking to yesterday the number of times independence was used. >> yes that's critical. a lot of people were saying the germans were dragged kicking and screaming but the underlying issue is is this bank independent or not? and the germans i think have to go with the program if they're going to maintain for the market's view the idea that this is an independent central bank for europe. >> ecb will be buying bonds with negative yields and the german's
4:11 am
hated that. >> it ain't a great time to be a saver anywhere in europe at the moment. particularly in germany. let's send it back to seema. >> thank you so much. we have been watching equities move higher. second day of gains after ecb announced the massive bond buying program that's expected to kick start growth and relieve europe of the deflationary concerns. right now the ftse 100 around 22 points. xetra dax to the upside. cac 40 with a gain of 63 points and the smi up about 1% in today's trade. it's been very notable to watch this rotation out of bonds and into equities. take a look at where bonds are trading because of the rotation. we have been seeing some of the trading coming off the lows across the euro zone. u.s. tenure up about 1.8%.
4:12 am
the 10 year yield on the italian bond at 1.5%. but i skipped german yield for a reason. the yield at .37%. let's take a look at the currency market and see what we're seeing in the euro. of course we got that euro zone pmi flash composite which is slightly better than expectations but that didn't help the euro move higher. the euro is trading below 113. it's at 1.1275. down about .8% in today's trade. interestingly enough central bank policy is ultimately good for stocks but critics say it may not be enough to stimulate the euro zone economy and he said to get europe out of this funk you need a wholistic policy
4:13 am
response that involves the politicians and also said the people that should worry are the currency traders because we could see further volatility in the euro. that could upset something we saw last week with the swiss national bank. the question is how low can it really go? as i was pointing out the top of the show. last time was in november of 2002 and of course the ultimate strategy in all of this is whether we actually will see a boost to european exports. >> well absolutely. so the euro one element here. the other crucial question is whether we see qe feed through to the real economy. for that we need to rely on the banks. mario draghi needs to rely on the banks. so i put it to you hugh what are your thoughts on what is effectively an unlimited qe program if it needs to be and will the banks lend? >> i think the banks want to lend. >> wanting and will is not the
4:14 am
same thing. >> what we learned from the ultra cheap loans is the southern european banks took them to help reduce their funding costs and we have three months of lending small businesses in the euro zone. there's progress. but it's slow. we need a lot more demand stimulus. >> it's a technicality but the deposit rate not shifted yesterday. will banks sell their bonds to the ecb because then they get the cash they lended out or do they put it in the with the central bank and get charged a tax for doing so. >> 30% of the bonds are held by the banks. they need to see a pick up in loan growth and at the moment it's muted. it's much more likely other people will be selling their bonds first. the other banks were trying to restore their balance sheets and trying to lend. >> the structure of the banking system in europe is changing.
4:15 am
we're so bank economy dependent but you have been talking about the debt securities up 60% since 2009. bank lend down 12%. capital markets a quarter of what we see as far as the euro zone markets are concerned. so we're working out ourselves how to go about this aren't we? >> that's right. i have been very excited. we've seen 400 billion more borrowing than from the banks. i think it's positive but you can do a lot more here to stimulate this. >> how? >> there's three legs to this. mid sized companies come directly to investors. i think the second is to unleash the power investors to put money work in infrastructure. there's so many aspects holding that back and try to change the way you deal with bad debts. one of the biggest issues is how you allocate resources from the bad to the good. if it takes ten years it will be a slow process. there's a lot we can do. >> obviously we saw the bank
4:16 am
changes as far as corporate governance is concerned from italy. i tackled the prime minister on the fact that we're still saddled with nonperforming loans. another avenue. disruptive technology in the financial markets. we've seen a huge growth. what are ceos saying about this? have they caught on to the importance of this? and how are they adapting. >> to me 2015 is the year. i'm on the technology panel and last year 80% of the ceos in a straw poll thought financial regulation would disincentivize them to come in. there's been a radical shift this year. people are very exposed. they see the success and disrumps in payments and are now scared. they have huge cost spaces. disruptive technology is one of
4:17 am
the keys to 2015. >> thank you so much for talking to us. managing director at morgan stanley. back to you. >> we're just getting some headlines. saudi king salman appointed an interior minister as deputy crown prince according to state television. this after saudi arabia's king abdullah died on friday. king salman called for unity and solidarity following the death of his half brother and former king abdullah overnight. saudi arabia is the largest world exporter and he is expected to stick to the policy of keeping oil output steady. however oil prices jumped initially on the news of the death amid speculations there could be changes ahead. light crude at 46.56 up about .5%. brent crude trading at just
4:18 am
below $50 barrel at 49.03. julia, i know you have our middle east correspondent and the question is could this change the leadership julia and hadley fuel a policy change around oil. >> well that's one of the crucial questions seema as far as the oil market is concerned. you just introduced hadley. she's here with me of course. before we get to the oil question just give us a sense of what king abdullah meant for saudi arabia. he was in power for two decades now and was a significant reformer. we'll get to oil and foreign policy as well. >> when you talk about a country in mourning they're truly in mourning for king abdullah. whether you're really conservative or a very liberal saudi king abdullah was loved and the way that he would
4:19 am
address things whether it be the fire at the girl school several years ago, religious authorities wouldn't let the little girls out and they ended up dying in that fire and king abdullah stepped up immediately and said this is not the way we're going to go forward. we're going to make changes so these things can never be allowed to happen again and the saudi people understood he was on their side. you see that in the immense amount of reforms he tried to enact in such a short period of time. 20 years is nothing when you talk about a society that's gone from riding camels. we're not talking about a long period of time to be thrown into the 21st century. >> that does bring me back to the oil question. we did see a bit of a pick up in oil prices overnight. a bit of speculation of whether or not we see some kind of shift as far as oil policy is concerned. give me your thoughts on that
4:20 am
because we did hear the new king talking about it. >> exactly i think what we saw in the oil price earlier today might be a little bit optimistic because certainly when you're talking about saudi arabia this is the unspoken question of the region. there's problems in syria, iraq iran afghanistan. we understand that but when we talk about the saudi royal family and their decision making process and the council and their decision making process there's nothing you can compare it to. it's incredibly secretive process. there's a lot of trading behind the scenes and this is something incredibly sensitive. they don't even talk about it among temshemselves but if you look at the next five years we'll see major changes in saudi arabia. >> we'll come back to foreign policy and talk more about this but for now hadley thank you for that. seema, back to you. >> thank you so much.
4:21 am
i also want to point your attention to the moves in asia. mario draghi's big qe announcement is making headlines in davos and china's deputy central bank governor told cnbc he supports the european central banks decision. eunice we are looking at chinese shares trading at a five-year high. >> well, absolutely. that's one of the reasons why we saw a lot of liquidity in the markets and expectations for liquidity and because of that we saw investors pretty excited about the announcement for the ecb. it's a major topic of conversation over here in asia and including at the central bank here in china. the central bank had a press briefing today along with other officials about financial reform and at that briefing the deputy governor said that he understands the motivations of the ecb.
4:22 am
when we were there i specifically asked him about the impact that he thought it would have on china and he said that it would potentially be an indirect impact in the sense that any move such as this could be a lift for your eeseurope's economy and china's exports would benefit and there would be an impact on the currency. he expected more downward pressure on the euro and upward pressure on the u.s. dollar versus the rnb exchange rate. the main point was all the liquidity in the markets. this is what he had to say about it specifically. >> the ecb's qe will provide a lot of liquidity spill overs while strengthening the u.s. dollar. it will also drive capital return back into the u.s. the future of cross border capital flows will see increase in certainty and china will be
4:23 am
effected although the impact will be limited. >> and we did see asian stocks rally today. julia. thanks so much there eunice. i'm now joined by chairman and ceo of citic capital. i want to come back to this idea of the impact in particular. what struck me this week was the comments made at the keynote speech and that's that there's not going to be a hard landing in china and i wonder if that even resinates with investors anymore. aren't we forgetting the fact that china is an extremely managed, controlled economy? >> it is. that's why he said it's not going to be a hard landing. he's trying to ensure the investment community. >> we obviously are very conscious as far as what's going on as far as their efforts to
4:24 am
reform raising the interest rates and trying to restrain credit growth. it's also about calibrating policy to allow a gradual slow down and not tip the balance too far. how do you see them managing that as far as the growth profile is concerned? >> well as i said chinese government has very strong control over the economy given that most of the banks are still state owned. they can moderate the pace of the leveraging although the real challenge still lies ahead. the leverage ratio for the country ahead of last year stood about 250% of gdp which is still rising compared to end of 2013. so the real challenge comes seeing this year when they have to let some of the company fail to take away the guarantee and also stop the company from sucking up financial resources. >> when we get to the point
4:25 am
where the role over of bad debt can't support growth and we see a collapse. >> absolutely. they have taken care of local government debt as you just pointed out but the real challenge lies in corporate debt. >> is that a bigger challenge than the corporate market here? investors seem to be talking far more about the property sector and the risk of significant slow down. the property sector rather than the shadow banking sector which was the issue in davos in 2013? >> i believe the overcapacity as a result of the overleverage is a far bigger issue than the property market given that leverage isn't that high in that sector. >> this time last year you said to me invest in the chinese equity market a lot of changes happened. so give me your advice on
4:26 am
whether or not chinese equities are a good buy for 2015 and where else you see value? >> i still believe there's still some room to go for chinese equity given the declining oil price which will inject a lot of money into chinese consumers pockets and also there's a lack of alternatives for the savings. >> very good point. thank you so much for speaking to us this morning. coming up after the break i'm going to be speaking to the economy minister for spain. he'll also be on jeff's panel so a bit of a teaser session, really. see what his take is as far as qe is concerned and the spanish economy seemingly one of the bright spots but the devil always in the detail here. stay with us. we're back in two.
4:28 am
can data help cure a disease? the right treatment for you is out there. the problem is some of it's in this lab. some of it is in her head. some of it's in this new journal. and the rest of it is in your personal medical history. ibm watson can not only read this data, but understand it. it's trained by doctors. and it's always learning. it can help find hidden correlations and help your doctor recommend treatment options for you. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.
4:29 am
4:30 am
113. executive board member tells cnbc the market reaction justifies the bank's action. >> it is encouraging. it shows that the program is credible but it's obviously too early to tell. we're only one day after and what matters at the end for us is inflation. >> saudi arabia's new king salman says the oil and foreign ministers will stay in place after his half brother king abdullah dies at an age around 90. >> telefonica confirms it's in exclusive talks with hutchison one power to sell it's british 02 business for more than $15 billion. >> just getting a read on u.k.
4:31 am
retail sales for the month of december. a surprise gain in the month on the back of lower fuel and food prices. unexpectedly rising in december as shoppers bought more fuel on the back of falling oil prices. let's get you the number sales rose 4.3% in december compared with the same month a year ago. economists expected a fall of 0.6% on the month after black friday sales. u.k. retailers bringing that concept to the u.k. that providing a tick up to retail sales. what does this mean for the currency mark something we're looking at sterling trading 1.49 against the u.s. dollar. the british pond did hit a seven year high against the euro yesterday on the back of mario draghi's announcement on 60 billion euros per month. taking a look at european markets. the euro 600 index is trading at
4:32 am
a multiyear high ahead of the ecb announcement and even post the ecb announcement this massive bond buying program is expected to fuel equities and result in investors taking on a more risk on approach if you will. something we haven't been seeing. we have been seeing the reverse. investors buying bonds and selling equities. right now, the ftse 100 up about .4%. xetra dax up 1.3%. coming in slightly below expectations in december. the flight to safety not as much in trade today. the 10 year yield trading at 1.4% and treasury note at 1.8%. moving up slightly but still well below 2%. what about the currency space? that being the main story given the response from the ecb. beating expectations resulted in
4:33 am
the euro weakening against the u.s. dollar. trading against the green back and right now it did break 113. now trading at 11266. a phenomenal move in the euro. julia. >> thank you seema. the ecb launching a landmark qe program. bigger than expected. markets rallying on the back of the move. the euro lower by the dollar down below 113. mario draghi revealing that the ecb would buy 60 billion euros worth of combined public and private sector bonds starting in march of this year. the purchase program will run through to the end of 2016 or until inflation shows signs of picking up pace. the ecb president said the bulk of the risk should be shouldered by the national central banks. >> it shows the program is
4:34 am
credible but it's obviously too early to tell. we're only one day after and what mattered at the end for us is inflation. not market reaction. so we have to see it feeding through to the european economy and lifting inflation eck expectations and creating more growth. that's what you want to see. >> let me ask you about the euro. a lot of economists are suggested the it's a possibility now with the u.s. dollar sometime in 2016. how does the council feel about that prospect? >> we don't have a target. we do monetary policy. it moves up and down. not only because of our actions but because of many other actions. so it's not a target. >> but the key issue is what? not the target but the way in
4:35 am
which it happens given that stability in all senses is your mandate? >> we want to see asset prices across all market segments reacting to what we do. building the expectation for future action into market prices this has been the case on the financial market as it has been on other market segments. nothing unusual here. >> there was a message to the greex greeks. it does appear to tell them as they go into their election at the weekend if you want to participate in this program you have to remain part of the single currency. was that intentional? >> greece will remain part of the single currency. i have no doubt about that. the message to greece is not a new message or message to greece only. it's a message to all euro zone countries. if you want the ecb to take your bonds as collateral you need a european and imf program and
4:36 am
this is because we need to see dynamics of reform in the economy. this has nothing to do with the election. reforms will be different if the government is different and that is democracy. >> just give me a personal take on this. look, the states finished it's program effectively three months ago. we're six years on from the financial crisis. many, many europeans have been waiting for this day to arrive. do you think that this was a watershed moment where we have now turned a corner? and just share with us some sense of how you felt when finally you knew that the package was ready to go. >> i was relieved personally because that's a lot of work. a lot of discussions and now this is done we'll start doing it and now this is about acting. this is about buying bonds. so we're moving to the practical phase which is much easier. are we out of the woods, is europe out of the woods?
4:37 am
certainly it's looking better. it's looking much better. we have a conjunction of factors that makes me much more optimistic on european growth looking forward. it's not only what we decided it's the low oil price and the way the rate has adjusted in the past and this is also the dynamic of reform that we see in some countries. but at the end whether europe can create long-term growth that's a question for investors. that's a question for the business to decide. do they want to invest in europe? is that an attractive environment? is that a business friendly environment? that's not for the ecb to decide. >> let's just get some reaction now from the finance minister of spain. he joins us this morning. can i just ask how pleased you are by what was announced yesterday. >> well i think it's positive.
4:38 am
it's going to be to fulfill the mandate of the ecb. that's to keep inflation rate below but close to the percent. they are lying low now so i think that you know the decision of them are important in order to reach that regard. >> we look at the market reaction yesterday and the follow through in equities today. the market and investors are saying here actually that size and the potential unlimited impact here is more important than the risk sharing which was such a dominant part of the discussion and the lead up to this. >> i think the risk sharing discussion was not going to undermine, and the final solution is not going to undermine the effectiveness of the program. i think what we have to look at is inflation expectations are low and that they have to stick to its mandates. so it's the right decision and
4:39 am
might moment. >> i want to ask you about greece. we have the greek elections this weekend. the bottom line is greece isn't going to be eligible until july time for their bonds to be bought. are you concerned about the potential risks here of the negotiation period with the next government and this gap effectively. >> i would like to say first that it's not on the table. you know in europe we are gain gaining new partners. >> turbulence is a possibility. >> first of all, this is a democratic process. everybody expects the outcome of the election this sunday and well, the point is whatever comes out of the election well we have lent them 110 billion
4:40 am
euros. that's what we have spent in one year on benefits. it shows clearly our commitment and solidarity with greece. >> that's a very interesting comparison. i want to go back to what happened last night with the rally and actually the leader was there from spain. they're piling 28% as far as spain now. are you concerned about the risk of turbulence again particularly given that the rise in their sentiment is as we see quite similar right now. >> well it's not comparable the situation in spain to the situation in greece in that regard but what i would say is that it's the consequence of a very long and profound crisis in
4:41 am
spain. the deepest recession and the spanish population is wise. they know perfectly that it's been t you know, one of the main elements behind the spanish economy. we're outperforming the majority of our peers. we are reducing unemployment rate so you know it's quite impressive. so i think that the spanish population knows perfectly what are the fundamentals of the economy. >> and the impression is the situation will continue to improve as we get toward the election. >> yes. our growth rate was 1.4%. we created almost 450,000 jobs last year. this year the dynamics continue improving. the growth rate is going to be above 2%. we have the only large economy
4:42 am
with the united states and the imf has revised up. it's outlooks in the recent projections of the imf. >> that's interesting to talk about spain in this light because there is a lot of bearishness about europe right now. the finance minister is going to be on squef's panel. >> thank you for chatting with us this morning. the sector abuzz about speculation. we're going to be speaking to the ceo after the break to get his lowdown on what's going on right now in the telecon sector. stay with us in a few minutes. you're watching worldwide exchange.
4:45 am
4:46 am
of its portuguese assets to altice. the deals will help consolidate it's position in it's home market brazil. the sale unmarks the unwinding of portugal telecom and oi. to talk more about the future of the industry julia is live in davos with a special guest. it seems like further consolidation is in the cards. >> absolutely. let's pick up on that exact issue. thank you for speaking to us this morning. seema mentioned the consolidation in the ministry. you call it an inflection point. talk to me about it. >> what we see right now is that the whole broadband is expanding into different industries and the potential of growth is just emerging and then of course you do take strategic choices and consolation can be won.
4:47 am
we decide to drop mobile phones. we have to take choices because this is so huge and the inflection point is actually happening right now. >> it's quite costly in the short-term but there's a longer term benefit as far as your business is concerned. >> it depends on what you want to do. but sudden they can offer services like health care services, it's choices again that you did to do. assets are multiplying. >> you seem to be busy here but i did manage to catch the panel you spoke on and there were fascinating elements coming out of that. the shift as far as technological advance in the last five years and i want you to tie it back to what we look at when we look at the u.s. economy in particular and the participation rate. given what we have seen in the last five years i question whether it's right looking and expecting that participation rate to come down given what we have seen. >> we see an enormous change and
4:48 am
it's developed fast so far and today it's roughly 7 billion mobile subscriptions in the world. 3 billion mobile broadband subscriptions but the next five years that's going to be the revolution. we're going to have 85% of the earth's population having 3g or 4g coverage by 2020 and more important 90% of all people on this earth above 6 years old will have a mobile phone. it will be the most transformative tool for any government when it comes to health care, education, but for industries as well and this is what we're seeing right now. still. >> it's taking workers out of the work force. i have to ask you about apple and the accusations they're throwing as far as the fees you're falling on licensing. we have litigation going on but they are an important client for
4:49 am
you. how do you solve that? >> our industries are different. we share our technology. anybody that wants to jump in can start to enhance it. we have cross licenses with everyone. and of course this case now we're not agreeing so let somebody judge that but in general the industry is very unique and that's why we have 85% of the population having mobile broadband coverage in 2020. >> well handled on that question. the ceo of ericsson. we're also talking in just a few minutes to the ceo of nordea. he's the former head of the european banking federation too and we'll pick up again on the ecb question and the feed through to the transition banking system. don't go anywhere. but for now seema back to you. >> julia, thank you so much. also want to get our attention back to the markets. the euro zone of course.
4:50 am
two major events could impact markets this week. the next one will be the greek election which kicks off on january 25th, this sunday. right now it does seem like the anti austerity party. we're just getting some flashes from reuters that the euro zone official may need to be considered and have a government in place. the euro zone official also saying that the extension will need to be more than a few weeks and no discussions are underway as yet. of course the question is if he does gain power what happens to the current greek bailout that is in place. new polls out of greece suggests the country's party wide perioded it's lead over the ruling conservatives with four different surveys suggesting a five to six point advantage. it suggests he will take 32% of
4:51 am
the votes compared to 27.1% with new democracy. now the leader has been an outspoken critic of austerity. so we're taking a look at polls ahead of that election on sunday. also want to bring your attention to the move that we are seeing in the euro. the euro remains under pressure falling below, get this, 113 against the u.s. dollar. the lowest level since september of 2003. this coming a day after the european central bank launched the landmark quantitative easing program that was bigger than many had expected. taking a look at the performance of the euro dollar. down about 1.1% against the green back. it did lose 2% in yesterday's trade against the green back. it's biggest fall in more than three years. it's had massive repercussions
4:52 am
across the currency market. the european central bank announced its new qe program and denmark cut it's interest rate for the second time this week. it was lowered to 0 minus 035%. it weakened slightly after the announcement. so big implications when it comes to other currencies having to deal with this weaker euro julia. >> thank you so much. as you were pointing out the spill over effects we saw that with the swiss national bank. i'm joined by the ceo of nodea. you were also head of the european banking federation so you have a bird's eye view of the euro zone in particular. does qe feed through to the real economy ultimately now do you think? >> yes, to some extent. but we have three drivers now we
4:53 am
cannot ignore. super low rates, the euro is depreciating quite a lot and we have the low oil prices. so we have something coming into the economy. private households will be held by the oil and oil rates. the whole package is good. the big discussion really need structural reform and so what will the actual outcome be? and the sentiment is that it's not that. i personally think we will have some growth. not american style growth but just some pick up because these are pretty forceful elements. >> that's a great point. the sentiment is bearish or europe this year. perhaps more so than last year. you rightly point out we carried on for another year about this kind of stimulus. i want to pick up the broader
4:54 am
question of central banks right now and to use the experience of sweden. the use of tools if we look at asset prices right now maybe not pulling back qe but trying to calm some of the asset price inflation. is that a warning for the likes of the fed and the bank of england who are also seeing similar concerns that actually they perhaps aren't the way to go and there's a danger here and higher rates doesn't necessarily stimulate growth. >> but this is a real dilemma of what we're doing because everybody understands that quantitative easing and very low rates is not something that will change things for real. it may boost the economy but the big question is how to get out of it without having created a lot of that here there, and everywhere. it's a huge risk but you can see not doing it is also a huge risk because then you risk the japanese tail spin and that's not an option either.
4:55 am
they're going in for it now and they have to monitor carefully how to get out like they're doing now in the u.s. avoiding too much. damaging. we want some but we don't want too much. a real dilemma. >> the cfo of citi called it volatile volatility right now making trading quite tough for a bank like yourselves or others across europe too. can you make money or is it actually more tough when you actually thought volatility would help. >> yeah but this is badvolume volatility. you can say it's unpredictable. some of the biggest risks are not oil and gee owepolitical and they're now there. yes of course you can make money because you can still run your risk management in a way where
4:56 am
you have control of it even if that happens and that is actually part of running a bank in my opinion, that you do have control over the rix and also the unforeseens but obviously it's not good for the consumer sentiments just as they see the oil prices come down their mortgage is low and everything is fine and then they open the paper and see geopolitical volatility. so the big driver is consumer confidence and maybe now just oil currents and rates may just give this to the economy which might just give a little growth. not huge but let's just see if it cannot recover. >> that confident. >> a bit confident. >> a little bit confident. how confident. give me probability. >> most likely outcome right now with the only caveat of
4:57 am
geopolitical. >> thank you very much. pushing him a little bit there and he managed it. we have to take a quick break. we'll be speaking to the ceo of gm after the break. stay with us. we're back in just a couple of minutes. [ male announcer ] meet jill. she thought she'd feel better after seeing her doctor. and she might have if not for kari, the identity thief who stole jill's social security number to open credit cards destroying jill's credit and her dream of retirement. every year, millions of americans just like you learn that a little personal information in the wrong hands could wreak havoc on your life. this is identity theft. and no one helps stop it better than lifelock.
4:58 am
lifelock offers the most comprehensive identity theft protection available. if jill had lifelock's protection, she may have been notified before it was too late. lifelock's credit notification service is on the job 24/7. as soon as they detect a threat to your identity within their network they will alert you by text, e-mail, or phone helping protect you before the damage is done. and lifelock offers the proactive protection of bank account takeover alerts. lifelock's comprehensive identity theft protection helps guard your social security number, your money, your credit, even the equity in your home. it doesn't matter how old you are or how much money you have. identity thieves steal from everyone. you have to protect yourself. i protect myself with lifelock. [ male announcer ] while identity theft can't be completely stopped, no one helps protect you better than lifelock. and lifelock stands behind their protection with the power of their $1 million service guarantee. you have so much to protect and nothing to lose when you call lifelock right now
4:59 am
and try 60 days of identity theft protection risk free. 60 days risk free. use promo code: onguard. order now and get this document shredder to keep sensitive documents out of the wrong hands. a $29 value free. call the number on your screen or go to lifelock.com/onguard to try 60 days of lifelock identity theft protection risk free and get a document shredder free. call the number on your screen right now.
5:00 am
i would say taken to a higher level our whole vehicle development process. the way we validate vehicles and we looked externally. we went to the nuclear industry to say a different perspective on safety how do we incorporate that into the way we develop vehicles. that's one measurable change and then how do we change cultures we changed the way we compensate and do performance appraisals and change and have much better engagement in the way we do our strategic planning. >> just a few weeks into your tenure you announced the first of 84 recalls that effected 24
5:01 am
million cars in the united states. i wonder if you think 2015 is a new year. are have we seen the bulk of the recalls. >> you have to look at two different aspects that drove last year. one as we learn the lesson of the problem that we found we wanted to make sure and we when through our entire car park and really looked at vehicles that were manufactured in the late 90s. so that's how far we went back which drove some of the numbers because we wanted to make sure that we were comprehensive in looking at the vehicles on the road. i would say going forward i will completely support a recall. if we find an issue. but what you've seen now in the last four five six months the
5:02 am
numbers have gone down but we put a lot of analytical tools and we're leveraging ibm watson. we're finding issues with several recalls with less than 100 vehicles. i want to get to a place where we have the safest vehicles and we're not doing recalls and that's the changes we made to our development process but as we see issues we're going to take care of them. >> you were the public face of this. you got out in front of everything that happened over the last year. what was the toughest moment for you? >> you know i think, first of all i was supported by a great team so i knew there was a great group of people behind me that were supporting me and the other thing, every time i spoke publicly i was also speaking to the men and women of general motors so not only talking to them but representing them.
5:03 am
i took it as that so obviously there was a personal impact but i always knew that i was representing all those people that worked so hard every day for the company. >> let's talk about the issues in the news right now. gas prices down significantly. down about 50% from where we saw just a year ago. what do you look at in terms of this? what does it mean for you and what consumers are looking for? they're coming in looking for bigger trucks and suvs right off the bat? >> it's really interesting because we want to respond to what customers want to we're going to seize and love having a challenge and not having enough of a certain vehicle and we just launched a brand new mid-sized struck. so we'll seize those opportunities but long-term, it's interesting being here, about as many people we have here is about that many opinions
5:04 am
of when the price will change. it doesn't effect the long-term strategy because it's much broader when look at fuel efficiency and eck he trilectrification. so we aren't changing our long-term strategy at all. we'll continue to sense and respond and learn as we all will and we'll be focused on meeting customer needs in the short-term. >> the longer term development as far as the electric car. >> in all efficiency starting with light weighting we have done massive work on light weighting vehicles. every component. fuel efficiency, across the board. >> how much is because of what governments asked for and required and how much is because you think it's what consumers want. >> clearly when you go across the globe whether you're in brazil or china or europe or north america there's regulatory requirements and we are going to meet those and do it as
5:05 am
efficiently as possible. that's the way we think we can serve the customer and meet not only what the customer wants but also meet the society needs as well. and the opportunity that we can have to have those come together it benefits everyone. >> we have seen a lot of volatility in the markets. you look out at currency prices and what the ecb did yesterday and that creates uncertainty. you have a good idea of what's happening with consumers around the globe. where do we stand right now? >> well in general, the consumer, when you look at it a car or truck or cross over purchase for people is the most or not or second most important purchase they make. it's a purchase decision they will back off on. what i observed is consumers are getting used to a higher level of i'll say uncertainty as global economic forces but if the spikes get too wide it will
5:06 am
have an effect and we definitely see it in the auto industry. >> do you see sales pulling back because consumers are a little unnerved by what they see? >> it's too soon right now. we see growth opportunities in china even if it's single digit as opposed to double digit. in the u.s. there's good solid growth since the '08, '09 time frame. in europe the strong economy is going to benefit the recovery we had. i'm not saying that i'm just saying as we move forward if the volatilitiened aspikes continue at some point customers will say this is higher than my new level of what i expect. >> what are your forecasts for europe for this year? that's probably the biggest question on people's minds when you look at economies around the globe. >> we think the market relatively flatter -- a lot will
5:07 am
depend on what happens. we see it as fragile from a gm specific perspective we have a very important launch we just brought out at the end of last year. we have another important launch coming later in the year so we'll hope to -- whatever the market conditions are of the industry to seize the opportunity of pretty exciting new products. >> we have heard an awful lot about self-driving cars. that seems to be all the rage these days and i will admit that it looks like a much more close to reality type of scenario than i would have thought even a year ago. what do you think of the future of them. >> you can buy cars right now that have many i'll say driver assist features on the pathway to autonomous. it creates value because it creates, it's improved safety whether it's stopping you and there's going to be an accident from a front impact and the ability to see what an individual sitting in the driver's seat can't see, lane
5:08 am
detection et cetera. all of those technologies are available today on many of our products. i think the first oem by next calendar year for 17 models we'll put vehicle to vehicle communications ability in the vehicle because for it to truly be successful -- >> we're going to leave the ceo of gm and becky talking while i bring you up to speed on today's other top stories. new saudi arabia king appointed his son as head of the royal court adding that the oil minister and others would stay in place and called for unity and solidarity of muslim countries following the death of his half brother and former king abdullah overnight. i'm joined by anchor of access middle east. let's get straight to the issue here. we saw a bit of a pick up in oil in trading in the early session and overnight.
5:09 am
speculation that perhaps given the top down leadership here there could be some change. there's been some criticism within the royal family of the supply stance right now. what's your take? >> you have to remember the royal family is not just that core group of royals. we are talking about hundreds of princes in saudi arabia. so for there to be criticism even from someone aslike him, i will say looking at the oil prices today it did seem a bit optimistic given the back story in saudi arabia which is changes are slow and coming and when you're looking at such a huge development, a saudi king passing away. that king not enjoying the best of health. a new crowned prince. all of these questions remaining about what's going to happen next. i think it optimistic to think we're going to see a big change in policy now. >> also changes as far as foreign policy is concerned. let's bring this to the u. s. right now. there was expected tension over
5:10 am
the issue when there was suspected chemical weapons and why didn't the u.s. go in but the attention started way before that. >> there's a huge back story and there's no doubt that there were tensions on both sides. the saudi's saw it as a betrayal that the united states were speaking behind their back to the iranians and the nuclear conversations. he asked king abdullah join with us and both of them said no. they said this is a bad idea. so there's been certain points within the last couple of decades where our policy this u.s. policy and saudi's policy has been divergent but during the last few years and during the arab spring things started to go downhill from there. >> of course you had the exclusive with the president of egypt and we'll come back to that and the implications for that relationship later in the show. we'll continue the oil theme after the break. an economy that's very much reliant on oil prices and the
5:11 am
5:14 am
hour. european markets rally as draghi delivers on quantitative easing. ecb executive board member tells cnbc that something had to be done. saudi arabia's new king keeps his oil and foreign ministers in place after the death of former king abdullah and goldman sachs ceo gets a pay raise. he speaks to cnbc's squawk box live from davos coming up. >> let's bring your attention to oil prices because they're moving higher after saudi king's death added speculation over whether new leadership will change saudi arabia's policies around oil. let's take a look at where oil is trading. light crude at $46.87.
5:15 am
up about 1.2%. the international gauge on oil trading at $49.30 up about 1.6% and julia when talking about oil there are clear winners and losers. yesterday i was speaking to street signs about some of the winners including india. that's helped lower inflation and resulted in the rbi cutting it's interest rate coming in at a surprise to the market last week. >> absolutely. you know and i can tell you here in davos everyone has a view on oil right now. it's incredible. but just listen in first to what some of the people have been telling us throughout the last three days and their views on the oil price falls. >> if you look at our customer segments there's some negatively impacted. we have many other customer
5:16 am
segments at the moment. if you look regionally there's 400 or 500 billion fuel subsidies going into fuel every year. india, many countries in europe are benefitting from that. this money will throw into outer investments and might be very good for us. >> as this downturn matures people either have to sell or rationalize their portfolios to make sure that they are focussing on their lower cost assets and you'll start to see assets being rationalized and those will be the opportunities. >> we cannot predict the price of oil. nobody predicted where we are today. i don't think anybody knows where we will be in one, two, three years down the road. it can be up. it can be down. >> the oil price declines obviously crucial for norway. i'm joined by the prime minister of norway now. thank you so much for joining us. your government has been accused of panicking over the oil price
5:17 am
declines. you called an emergency meeting with the central bank particularly in light of the country's $850 billion worth of reserves. how do you respond to that criticism. >> i don't think it was an emergency meeting but it was very important for us to make sure that the government's view and central banks view on the economic development and there was no crisis was right. we have to make sure that the financial and monetary policies follow policy done by the central bank. it's important not just because of the oil price fall but we know the investments this year have been coming in at a little lower level. >> production has been declining for a decade. it's about half the level of 2000. to transition crucial and competitiveness also a crucial issue. >> competitiveness is extremely crucial. both oil services have worked
5:18 am
hard on that last year. we had a meeting with this a year ago where we said they have to do their kind of job on this because we need to be more competitive both in our overall economy but also in the oil and gas services businesses. >> we also had the news from saudi arabia overnight. there's speculation already in the oil market that perhaps a transition of leadership could change the status quo as far as their decision on supply right now. what are your thoughts on that? >> i don't see a change in their oil policy. i just hope they will continue reforms. it's also important that they're reforming themselves that you see -- that they're also meeting the new needs for women to participate more. there's a lot of things that we should discuss with a lot of countries around the world and the late king really had some reform programs that will continue. >> so you're saying the
5:19 am
geopolitics and their place in the region more porn now than what they do as far as oil is concerned. >> most governments are more concerned about terrorists about security issues and we can handle oil prices going up and down. we can't handle security issues if we don't have a broad consensus on working to fight against all the extremist movements. >> there's another element to bring in here as well on that point and the sanctions particularly in your country stopping process and where do you stand on the issue of sanctions in russia right now? do you think it's time for a reassessment? >> follow up on the same type of sanction. it's norwegian national decision since we are not members of the eu we think it's important to have one voice toward russia toward the whole western and international society. the fact that they are breaking international law and they are taking over the control and
5:20 am
supporting activities in that area, both supporting the rebels but also they have their own military there, a small country like norway came up with economic issues in the forefront. a small country like norway have to make sure that the security and international law is abided by also the larger countries. >> very important points there. the prime minister of norway speaking there and a very tough cookie there as well because i'm slivering. >> norwegians. >> there you go. i'm a wimp. we're going to continue the oil conversation. i'm going to be speaking to the ceo of investec asset management. we have to take a quick break but stay with us. plenty more to come on worldwide exchange. we're back in just a few moments. how could a luminous protein in jellyfish impact life expectancy in the u.s.,
5:21 am
real estate in hong kong and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price we understand the connections of a complex global economy. it's just one reason over 85% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
5:23 am
5:24 am
vowed to stop the aggression. we spoke to them about the conflict and how it is effecting business and russian development. >> i think in general there's the idea that we need to build a more efficient state. efficient in terms of the support. free in the market economies that we support free entrepreneurship and of course we need to cut the state -- state ambition was based on that and it's now possible enough for ambition. they'll look at opportunity and not to rely more on private sector but in less than 12 years. it's not just infrastructure but the state did a lot to modernize social infrastructure. it will be very helpful. >> a reduction in state ambition as you call it. >> it's not yet. >> it's not yet. we just assume. >> does it help resolve the
5:25 am
conflict? >> conflict will resolve in different places and i know that we'll -- i don't know if it can be much more clear. but 40% russians has relatives in ukraine and 70% of ukrainian's have relatives in russia. that's why this conflict is nonsense and the tragedy must be resolved and no one should use it as an argument for anything and our leadership physically or in the statement that they won't resolve as quick as possible. >> solve this by talking more and understanding more. >> not just talking. action. there should be action taken. on all sides and it's -- it's unfortunately a huge huge
5:26 am
tragedy and we should just make this settlement and make it on longer term basis as soon as possible. stamps.com is the best. i don't have to leave my desk and get up and go to the post office anymore. [ male announcer ] with stamps.com you can print real u.s. postage for all your letters and packages. i have exactly the amount of postage i need, the instant i need it. can you print only stamps? no... first class. priority mail. certified. international. and the mail man picks
5:27 am
5:29 am
exchange live from davos and london. >> i'm seema mody. here are your headlines from around the world. >> draghi does deliver. stock investors cheer. the $1 trillion package as the euro falls below 113. executive board member tells cnbc the decision was driven by the current troubled economic climate in europe. >> according to all our measures expectations were lower so lights were blinking red and we had to do something. >> greece's opposition party syriza gains with days to go before the election as another bailout extension could be on the way. >> saudi arabia's new king salman says the oil and foreign
5:30 am
ministers will stay in place after urging calm and unity after his half brother king abdullah dies at the age of 90. >> the auto industry enjoys a come back in the u.s. mary bar rangersa saying the company is trying to make it right for customers. >> we not only did the right thing for customers but we were transparent about it and open about taking the learnings and driving it into the company. >> if you're just tuning in thank you for joining us on this special edition of worldwide exchange. keep in mind u.s. stocks did trade higher yesterday on the back of that ecb monetary action. the market liked what mario draghi had to say. that sent stocks higher and better than expected earnings from southwest airlines.
5:31 am
the s&p 500 up about one point in premarket trade. the dow up 16 points. nasdaq up 3. keep in mind that s&p and the nasdaq are now positive for the year. taking a look at european markets the ecb bond buying program sent investors into stocks and out of bonds. holding on to gains, the german markets, france italy all in positive territory. we should note it's a good gauge of stocks across europe has been trading at a new multiyear high. when speaking about the quantitative easing we know one of the reasons mario draghi waited so long was because of push back from policy makers. in florence italy germany's chancellor merkel says the ecb is independent. and after the ecb's decision we need to move out of the way of everything that headers growth.
5:32 am
also talking about italy's path to recovery because mateo renzi was happy with the decision as well. reforms in italy will be decisively continued. that's one of the big decisions going forward is whether it's enough to stimulate the euro zone. many skeptics say it's needed to get euro zone out of this deflationary gap. we're watching the euro trading at a multiyear low against the dollar. >> just days after the launch of the landmark qe program that was bigger than many expected and could continue if the inflation profile suggests it's needed. jeff spoke to ecb board member earlier this morning and he asked him about the market's reaction.
5:33 am
>> it is encouraging. the program is credible from lack of participants. it's obviously too early to tell. it's only one day after. it is inflation. it is not market reaction. so we have to see it feeding through to the european economy. lifting inflation expectations and creating growth and that's what you want to see. >> let me ask you about the euro specifically. a lot in the city included have suggested that the parody is a possibility with the u.s. dollar in 2016. how does the council feel about that prospect? >> we don't have a target. we do monetary policy and we do the monetary policy in a way that is our fit to our inflation target. it moves up and down not only because of our actions but other
5:34 am
many actions. it's only an outcome. it's not a target. >> but the key issue is not the target but the way in which it happens given that stability in all senses is your mandate? >> we want to see asset prices across all market segments reacting to what we do. building the expectation for future action into market prices. this has been the case on financial markets. there's nothing unusual here. >> there was a message to the greeks. perhaps it wasn't meant to be explicitly stated but it does appear to tell them as they go into their election over the weekend if you want to participate in this program you have to remain part of the single currency. was that intentional? >> oh but greece will remain part of the single currency. have no doubt about that. the message to greece is not a new message or message to greece only. it's a message to all euro zone countries. if you want the ecb to take your
5:35 am
bonds as collateral or be in a position to buy your bonds you need a european and imf program and this is because we need to see the dynamics of reform. this has nothing to do with the election. reforms will be different. >> give me a personal take on this. look the states finished it's program effectively three months ago. many europeans have been waiting for this day to arrive. do you think this was a watershed moment where we have now turned the corner? and just share with us some sense of how you felt when finally you knew that the package was ready to go. >> i was certainly relieved personally. that was a lot of work. a lot of discussions and we start doing it and now this is about acting. this is about buying bonds.
5:36 am
we're moving to the practical phase which is much easier. are we out of the woods? is europe out of the woods, certainly it's looking better. it's looking much better. we have a conjunction of factors at a makes me much more optimistic on european growth going forward. it's not only what we decided. it's the low oil price and the way the rate has adjusted in the past and this is also dynamic of reform that we see in some countries but at the end as i said whether europe can create long-term growth that's a question for investors. that's a question for the business to decide. do they want to invest in europe? is that an attractive environment? is that a business-friendly environment? that's not for the ecb to decide. >> that was the ecb. >> they advised shareholders to gfi to vote against an offer to be acquired by the cme group.
5:37 am
the move appears to give the green light to make the purchase. let's cross live to julia in davos where he is joined by the chairman and ceo of bgc. take it away. >> thanks seema. howard great to have you on the show. let's talk gfi. you raised your bid. it seems we have iss on the board as a shareholder but the gfi management are still against you. are you seeing any softening from them. where does this gou now. >> it was always about the shareholders. even they raised their bid $150 million. so obviously they were trying to sneak it through which doesn't really work in the public markets. it's our bid at 610. iss on our side. shareholder vote on tuesday. their deal is going down. >> is it really? are they going to come back with a cheeky raise of the offer before tuesday?
5:38 am
>> i don't know but i think management is out of money. think about the last 125 million they borrowed. 12% for the first year and you're obviously out of money when you're borrowing it so it will workout really well for the company. we have the business and infrastructure and we think we can cut costs and save $50 million a year. it's a great deal for our stock. >> and do you feel like you sold the message as far as the back pay is concerned? >> look they just try to create stuff. we take care of our employees. we have 2800 brokers and they like working for us. there's not much difference between us and them and management is trying to get their guys on sides but they're a great company. they have great employees. it's all going to workout fine. sometimes you need to get over that hurdle of us paying more than them and the deal is over. >> we'll see you on tuesday. i want to come back to volatility in the markets now.
5:39 am
we spoke to the ceo earlier and he is saying look this is bad volatility because it's tough to trade. what is it like for you guys? >> we hate when it's boring. a little excitement, you open the financial times and right on the cover it's foreign exchange. for me i'm like thank goodness. a little excitement at least moves the markets around so we like volatility. volatility is a friend for bgc. it's good for the business. now quantitative easing suppresses volatility so you'll ceeloer volatility in europe next year. they're buying 60 billion a month and not hedging it or doing anything with it. just sticking it in their belly. so less volatility in europe but more because quantitative easing is done in america, more volatility in america. >> two very quick questions now. one to what extent does that volatility and the benefits for your business offset some of the otc market migration that we're seeing overall impact on business and the second quick
5:40 am
session how did do in the move. >> we avoided it. when they hooked it they took it by taking swiss and smashing it down and sticking it under the euro so it was like a spring. eventually it was going to come off. i had no idea what day it was going to come off. so the firms that got hammered they weren't -- it wasn't a black swan event. it was like this is going to happen event i just don't know when. that should have been people taking care of that. that's just wrong and generally we like volatility and the business things are going great for us. we love commercial real estate. >> challenging me for enthusiasm in the snow. seema. >> julia thank you so much. let's focus now on greece. got the bond buying program yesterday and now our focus turns to the bond buying
5:41 am
program. they widened their lead with four different surveys suggesting a five to six point advantage. the rass poll predicts syriza has 32% of the vote with three days before the general election. he has been an out spoken critic of austerity. they said in the last hour that greece will need a fresh bailout extension but stressed that nothing can be approved until a new government is formed. meanwhile, german chancellor merkel says she is certain there will be solutions found after the greek election. so the story develops as we await for that story on sunday. michelle is live with us in athens now. what has the reaction been on the ground to the program unveiled yesterday? also why are we seeing this massive rally behind syriza.
5:42 am
where are the supporters? >> the syriza supporters are quite frustrated by new democracy and they're going to renegotiate the bailout program. that's their campaign platform and it gathered a lot of supporters as a result. but the fact of the matter is even though the ecb's message was silent the message was clear. if you want the ecb to buy your bonds you will stick to the program program. so that's the issue, if they can form a government they have to sit down and talk with their creditors. if you're the ecb you already essentially lent 27 billion euros to greece because in 2010 and 2011 they bought greek bonds trying to lower their yields as a favor to the country.
5:43 am
now they want the bonds restructures and maturities extended and interest rates lowered. why would you buy more greek bonds when a potentially new government is telling you they don't want to pay the last ones. so when they say for technical reasons we can't buy greek bonds until july when you look at the way they designed the program you might surmise those were built in purposefully to give breathing room and time for negotiation so everybody can figure out what's going to happen. at the same time though you start to run out of room for liquidity when it comes to the banks here. we may see a show down long before july. back to you. >> i know the election is on sunday. when will we actually get the results of the greek election? we should know by sunday night
5:44 am
or monday morning. >> we'll be watching. live for us in athens thank you for that update. also before we go to break a reminder to tune in to jeff's recharging europe panel from 1300 cet for our european viewers. with finance minister of germany, spain, and the u.k. that's coming up. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
5:47 am
welcome back to the world economic forum here in davos. this is a conversation that some of the oil producers might want to be listening to. i'm joined by the ceo of investment access management. everybody has a view on oil right now in davos. you you have two portfolio managers saying look the oil situation is going to surprise people in terms of the snap back in speed and in scale. what are their thoughts? >> well we're on a substantial energy dedicated fund and we have to have an opinion and simple reason. we think the marginal cost dictates. we think demand is there in what
5:48 am
is still a growing world economy and we see some supply discipline being brought in by this and typically oil prices have snapped. >> you're aggressive in terms of prediction. $60 q-1, and $85 in q-4. that's aggressive. >> well the oil price more than halved. that's the answer. >> i'll leave it there on that one. the saudis what we saw from saudi arabia last night. speculation that we perhaps see some kind of shift as far as policy is concerned? we've seen criticism on this supply issue from within the royal family in the last week or so. what are your thoughts there? >> well the link between the change in saudi and the sad death of the king and the replacement with king salman that is unclear. what i do know is that prince
5:49 am
salman will go along the line of king abdullah. he is a reformer. he is a modern thinker and i guess the saudis will do what they have to do to discipline the oil market first. >> interesting. now i want to come back to central banks because the underlying message is almost like a coiled spring as far as volatility is concerned with the government and central bank involvement right now. what's the risk of volatility between the fed and the disconnect between pricing and what the fed is still saying to us and can you tie that in as far as liquidity is concerned? we've seen a 70% drop for rates since the crisis. >> that's very very -- it's probably the question for 2015. the risk i see is one of a disconnect. the world isn't exactly synchronized and with the ecb so
5:50 am
late and the angelo saxon world starting to pull out one must always watch out when there are disconnects in policy direction and of course the qe is lovely for financial markets. you've seen the reaction but it's short-term. the real issue is can europe engage in structural reform? can the emerging markets which are also dependent on high commodity prices reform themselves but at the moment the big issues in markets, at least from the buy side is liquidity because investment banks have withdrawn. we're in there selling essentially in the mutual fund business open ended market to market daily traded product and i really think enough -- and what was very good i know the central bankers are thinking about it. the question is can the policy makers reach the regulators in
5:51 am
5:53 am
5:54 am
following the death of his half brother and former king abdullah overnight. before the news broke we spoke to ben about the late king's illness and whether there might be any change in policy. listen in. >> has a higher council that decides oil policy. called the higher petroleum council. it's been in existence for nearly 40 years. nobody pays attention to it because fortunately for us in the past it's decisions have been quite good. so there was no need for people to begin wondering who is making the policy. and i think that is the case now. whatever other considerations may take place, politically or socially or whatever the higher petroleum council sets a policy and the rest of the government follows. >> that was two days ago.
5:55 am
also want to bring your attention to european markets right now. mario draghi unveiling that program with $60 billion in bond buying per month. ber looking at the german dax at an all time high. they're hopeful this will stimulate the european economy and bring the euro zone out of deflation. wall street likes what he has to say. stocks are higher after four consecutive days of gains and ecb will be a topic of discussion at davos today as well. >> we're just about wrapping up worldwide exchange coverage from davos here but don't go anywhere we have incredible guests coming up on squawk box. let me run you through some of the nails and conversations we'll be having. kyle bass he's up at 7:00 a.m. eastern. we have lloyd blankfein, jack
5:56 am
lew 8:15 eastern time and david cheesewright at 8:40 eastern time. it will be a continuation of the conversations here in davos but here from worldwide exchange from myself and seema it's been a pretty chilly few days to be honest but an incredible amount of information. oil, central banks, liquidity, you name it we've talked about it here. >> wonderful stuff. stay warm. don't party too hard tonight and we'll see you on monday. be sure to recharging europe panel. that's where the finance minister of germany, spain, and the u.k. as well as the italian central bank governor. it will be interesting to see what they have to say about the fate of the economy and ecb. next up is squawk box. thank you for tuning in to
5:59 am
good morning from the world economic forum in davos switzerland. the king tom is the world's top exporter of oil and one of the biggest producers. there's a lot of talk about stability in the region and the future of the commodity that's now down more than 50% since midsummer. it's friday january 23rd 2015. squawk box begins right now.
6:00 am
good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. we're wrapping up our week long stay at the world economic forum. there's one story everybody is talking about today. the death of king abdullah. saudi tv making the statement yesterday with a statement from his half brother prince salman. he has taking on his responsibilities from the last year. reaction coming in from around the globe. john kerry traveling here overnight. he said king abdullah was a man of wisdom and said the us. lost a friend. >> prices at this hour look like they are up slightly. just over 1.2%. wti up about 56 points. to 46.87. we'll talk more in just a moment but first a round up of other big stories we're watching this
223 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on