right now, we're up 149, nice rally on the dow but still down for the month. gold may be the big story. it is down 30 dollars an ounce. oil. "closing bell" starts right now. i'll see you tomorrow. yes, welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans, down here at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm scott wapner in today for bill griffeth. it is a market that's lost nearly 500 points in the past couple of days. trying to get some of that back today. and how about a nice little ramp-up into the end of the day. >> it was the time you entered the building scott. >> i'm told it's just a coincidence, but i'll take it. i should come around here more often. >> we're keeping an eye on what might have been moving stocks higher here. now many of the dow components in the green. earlier, it was only because of mcdonald's and boeing's outperformance that the index was higher.

mcdonald's surging nearly 5% after ousting its ceo. wlas what is the new plan for the fast food giant? this remains the big question. >> and one hour from now, some huge earnings hit the tape google, amazon advisoryvisa biogen to name a few. we'll have the numbers and instant analysis as well. >> a ton coming up next hour. >> we're just ramping up on the whole earnings thing. digesting names like ali alibaba. the dow is up about 148 points this hour. that outperformance from a couple of individual movers. boeing again in two days the stock is up something like 10%. the s&p, meanwhile, up about half a percent. the same thing goes for that nasdaq buffeted from outperformance by apple and underperformance by alibaba.

>> lindsay bell from s&p capital iq and our own rick santelli. heather, you first, why do you think the market is picking up as the day has progressed? >> i think some buyers may have emerged after a january sell-off. the dow still down about 3% on the year the s&p, about 2%. we are coming off the backs of a high, not too far from here only hit on december 29th. the s&p was up about 13%, 13.5% last year. so while we are seeing some buyers emerge it may not be enough to seduce the average retailer off the sidelines just yet. >> and should they be seduced at a time like this? markets are talking about their first back-to-back monthly gains in a couple of years. is that a buying opportunity? >> i think it may be kelly, but i think the market still has some volatility on the downside left to go. today's a good recovery but the last two days were all about oil, the strong dollar and the fed. you know, we had the effects of oil and strong dollar on our

u.s.-multi-nationals, dragging some stocks down on tuesday and yesterday was all about the fed. the fed sees a stronger labor market, and a stronger economy and signal that they can continue with their plans of increasing rates later on this year. and investors are worried about that. >> greg ip the word on the street is that people were confused by what the fed delivered yesterday, and the message. was yesterday an overreaction is today an overreaction? can you make any scenes of what appears to be some sort of conflict in the fed's message? >> i don't think so scott. it feels to me like there's a game of chicken going on between the fed and the markets. if you parse a statement, it's pretty much clearly and ambiguously upbeat. you know they said the economy is growing at a solid rate instead of a moderate rate which is what they said last time. they talked about strong labor markets instead of solid, which is what they said last time. they did sort of throw a curve ball at us in reference to international developments. to me when i see the downside and upside volatility on the market, it's another sign that

the world is getting used to central banks that are not going to be as predictable as they once were. certainly that's the case with the fed, which is slowly withdrawing forward guidance and we've seen it with actions like with what the swiss national bank did the other day. >> and lindsay, all of this leaves companies trying to figure out thousand hedge this currency risk. what effect is it having overall this earnings season? >> interestingly, you've seen earnings improve. analysts are expecting 5.8% growth in the fourth quarter. last year it bottomed at 4.1 to 4.2%. so we're hearing most of that improvement's coming from the tech certificate, apple being a huge contributor, and interestingly enough you mentioned fx. well, tech is going to have the second biggest growth in the fourth quarter. and you know the 56% of their sales come from international. so that's a positive thing. >> so rick santelli why don't you weigh in on this whole fed question and how investors and everybody within these markets are trying to gauge exactly what was said yesterday.

your bond market, that you watch closer than anybody else, was where the real action was. >> well with i think there's arrested development with regard to the economy. they address, there's the international development that seems to be -- to have people scratching their heads. i do think i have an answer actually. you notice all maturesityies are up. the stocks have rebounded after the drop. my interpretation is just because the fed put it on the statement doesn't mean everybody wasn't aware of it. we all know why yields have been done in part because of low yields in europe and that's due to weakness in europe potentially qe. all of that was already known by the market place. i think they actually repriced it and after they thought about it you know whether it's in the statement or isn't in the statement, it's just a question of you know, do you look at the fed as oniscient.

so i thought the market place rethought that issue in terms of the significance. >> i guess, rick it just comes down to when you think the fed is going to raise rates. whether it's in 2015 or 2016. and at the end of the day, that's what's going to affect investor sentiment towards where stocks, at least, can go in the near-term. >> yeah, it is a timing issue, for sure scott. but then again, i'm not sure the fed knows, so i don't think there's an answer to that question. and for all of those who say it doesn't matter it does matter. not only is the exit a big question mark exactly when it begins might be when a roller coaster ride starts and investors will try to figure it out, all along the way. >> greg, you call this a game of chicken. why do you say that? >> because i think the fed wants to start raising rates in june. they look at the weakening and risk assets like equities and

say, you shouldn't be tightening. this is not an economy or a market that is prepared for tightening. >> look at what the sekat ceo said. he said, don't raise rates, we're not ready for it. >> and i heard the td ameritrade ceo say that earlier. but what these guys have to realize, the fed is looking at the economy, not at the market. it's not surprising you see all this churn and all this sclilt at a time when the market is going to lose the monetary modern they've been enjoying for the last five or six years. the fed will pull the trigger if they think the economy can stand it. until we see the payroll data and the gdp data tomorrow turned down, with i think the fed remains on that program. and to the point that scott made earlier, it isn't just when do they start tightening, i think it's also how fast do they tighten? that's another part of the game of chicken going on here. >> i love hearing you say that that the fed should continue as planned, and raise rates,

hopefully in june or the second quarter of this year based on the economic data in their dual mandate, which is a stable money supply, even though we're not seeing that 2% inflation target yet. but the unemployment situation has been somewhat improving. and if we are having solid economic growth, which was changed from modest growth and greg to your point, i guess they're fulfilling that dual mandate, and they should continue ahead to -- on the path of raising rates. >> what are you buying heather? are you buying cyclicals? what names look attractive? >> if you look at the energy space right and want to be a contrarian, no one can call a bottom. it was irrational to the downside. but if you want to look for safe havens, only four times in the past 50 years has the s&p 500 yielded more than the ten-year. so right now, there's that case for dividend payers right now, health care is where the leaders were last year and they have certainly done well if you're not a contrarian. >> jimmy you buy stocks here.

it's been kind of a nasty week for earnings especially from the big dow components that have come out, at least most of them up until you got a little bit of a boeing bump today. what do you do in this environment then? >> if you're accumulating wealth i think you dollar cost average. it's a proven technique and you average into the market. if you're a long lean investor, i think a lot of people are expecting a lot of volatility this year. we're telling our clients to be ready so they don't get panicked out of the market. and add some tactical strategies into your portfolio so you have some protection on the downside. >> lindsay, also curious, heather brought up health care as one place. obviously, it's been attractive for a lot of investors. done really well on the earnings front. could health care potentially propel this market or make up for some of the declines across energy? >> it was a leading sector last year, it's leading so far this year. health care, just like technology, is helping improve the earnings estimates rates for this quarter. so, yes, i definitely think it can. and once again it's going to be

the biotech sector within health care that will be the all-star. >> rick do you get the feel that the dollar is anywhere towards a near-term top, that it corrects? i mean it's central to the earnings question and in many respects it's central to where we think the stock market could go because of the headwind of currency. >> i think one can make a case here that we can see some consolidation in the euro therefore, consolidation in the dollar index. and i think that consolidation could have a timeline very similar to the start-up of actual qe that may begin in march. >> we should mention as well guys, we're sitting here pretty much at session highs. we'll give you the final word jimmy. is this market just going to keep tracking oil? >> i think it might. i think there's some room on the downside. but at some point, as someone said earlier, i think there's a buying opportunity for the contrarian investor in energy praises. >> certainly seems that way. plenty of interest even here even as the companies are struggling with it. wooerl talk to one oil services

name. coming up. dow's up 168, scott. >> all right. coming up, black rock president rob copy doe speaks with us specifically. black rock managing over $4 trillion in assets. yeah, that's trillion with a "t accounts. and wait until you hear how mr. kapito is managing these markets. also ahead, the tale of two fast food chains. mcdonald's wishing it had lines like this. white castle overrun opening a franchise on the las vegas strip. mcdonald's shareholders tell us what they want the fast food chain to do so people storm the golden arches once again. and royal caribbean shares sinking on disappointing earnings. we'll discuss what went wrong with that company's ceo, next. copyto. ♪ etta james "at last" ♪ sometimes, at last doesn't happen at first. your dad just kissed my mom. turning two worlds into one takes love.

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sleep ♪ welcome back. 45 minutes to go. towards sessions highs. the dow is up 155 points bolstered by strong performance from boeing and also from mcdonald's. but across the board there, some strong gains. we've got utilities materials, customer discretionary, all up 1%. energy seal remains that name in the red, scott.

>> dom chu, what a difference a day makes. >> with oil making that move higher, that turnaround starting to get the market going. we'll start with the movers on jetblue soaring on a better than expected 86% rise in earnings from the same time a year ago, that was helped along by lower jet fuel prices. jetblue shares trading up by 9%. other airlines are flying high as well. look at southwest, american airlines united continental, all of them moving higher. a different story for alibaba shares down by 9%. kate spade moving higher after its full-year sales jumped 40% on higher demand for its luxury handbag products. kate spade shares up by 7.5%. and we'll end also on consumer discretionary. royal caribbean cruises losing ground today, after reporting weaker than expected quarterly results and guidance this on weak pricing in the caribbean, which is royal caribbean's biggest market. so scott, kelly, interesting

moves there, especially on the cruise line side. >> thanks so much. let's find out exactly what's going on at royal caribbean. >> we're joined by the ceo and also with us cnbc's simon fobs who covers the cruise line industry for this network. i want to start with you, richard. a lot of your revenue is international, you've made a big play to china, and that's what people are wondering. how strong is your international demand. from you seen any slowing lately? >> no. it's been a terrific 2014. we announced record earnings up 40%. and for 2015 we guided to another 40% improvement. but, you know, people looking at a short quarter and a little blip with our positive track record had a disproportionate impact. >> you know richard, they say, to coin an old expression, it's the disappointments in life that sort the men from the boys. and people should credit the fact you're actually on the

television when your earnings are disappointed, and so few actually step up to the plate to do that. the fourth quarter is light. 11 cents a share. the quarter, this quarter that you're forecasting now is off by about 31 cents, off the consensus. i mean what is actually going on in the caribbean? robert fally suggesting it's 70% of where your ships are stationed, and this quarter, you'll have capacity rising 8%. too many ships, how far are the prices falling? >> well we've seen the caribbean be difficult for the last year now, and we've been saying, and continue to say that it will be difficult through the rest of this first quarter. but, that situation really laps itself come the end of the first quarter. and we're looking at a very robust rest of the nine months both in the caribbean and elsewhere in the world. the result is we're expecting

record revenues this year and as i mentioned earlier, a 40% increase for the year as a whole. but you're right, the first quarter, while it's up over last year won't be up as much as people had hoped. >> but if your biggest market sir, is under significant pricing pressure what impetus do people have to go buy your stock today, even when they're getting it at a relative discount to where it has traded because it's down 4% today? >> well it's been under the pricing pressure now for almost a year. that year is ending, basically. and we begin to lap and start to see easier comps. we also start to see no longer the increase in capacity but for the last nine months of the year, we have significant declines in capacity in the caribbean. so the supply/demand balance is coming into play. everybody can see that coming into play, and the result is another outstanding year for us. not an outstanding first quarter, but an outstanding year. >> and we should put it in

context. the stock over the year is up 58%, because people thought you had the pricing. you know it's a couple of months since you and i were launching the "quantum of the seas" in jersey and it very soon will go off to china. i just wondered what sort of pricing you're seeing on that ship that has the big arm that comes up what pricing you're seeing in asia, and just on china, for all of you, really is china just more of a distraction than anything else given what's going on in the caribbean? >> first of all, if "quantum of the seas" is just going gangbusters. everybody has loved that ship. and fortunately, we have three of them. one here already and two more coming. and so the reaction to it from those who have had it in the states has been terrific. lacking to china, the chinese market, if it's a distraction, it's one hell of a distraction. that market is just exploding. we expect the middle class in china will fairly soon be larger

than the population of america. not than the middle class in america, but of all of america. >> richard, forgive me for interrupting. we know it's exploding, but how many ships do you have then? >> well we have four now. this year we're growing 66% and we're seeing significant price increases. i think that kind of growth rate is going to continue and we're going to see not only more people, but more pricing. so that market we're just beginning to penetrate, and opportunity, we think, is very strong. but we've already got four ships there. >> how much less are you paying today to fill the "quantum of the seas," a massive ship than you were you know, when you first launched it relative to -- because gas prices have come down so much and oil prices are down so much? >> well the oil prices are, obviously, a big boom to us but the ship has done so well in terms of the market acceptance that i think the prices are continuing to rise not fall.

so this is a wonderful story for us. better revenues lower expenses. i can live with every day. >> i'm just curious, what does it actually cost to fill up one of those massive ships? do you know offhand? >> i never thought of it in those terms. >> as an executive navigating period where you've had volatility on oil and currencies how much more difficult that has that made things for you in terms of capturing the benefit from some of the price swings? >> you're right, these are uncharted waters to see a 50% drop in the price of oil and a 6% increase in the strength of our weighted average currency. it's very difficult to balance these things. it makes life more interesting, but on balance, we're -- our focus is on 2017 and achieving our double double goals, and

the balance of that seems to be that we're on track, in fact we're doing more -- we're more confident than ever of achieving those goals. >> richard fain thank you so much for being here. the ceo of royal caribbean with our simon hobbs. thank you so much. about 40 minutes to go until the close here. markets moving higher. dow's up 188, s&p up 15. >> mcdonald's taking its ceo off the menu. two pros who own the stock tell us what they think the new ceo needs to do to make the golden arches golden again. meanwhile, alibaba stock is taking today on disappointing revenues.

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tell you what. we're at the highs of the day right now. the dow jones industrial average is up better than 200 points getting all of yesterday's losses back, but it has been a rough week. remember, we were down almost 500 points on the dow coming into today, and there you go with some reversal. there's ramp-up starting before this program came on the air, and really seems to be picking up some steam as you head towards the latter part of the show. and kell you know what a difference a couple of days makes for the dow. if you have mcdonald's today and boeing getting a nice liftoff, it was just a couple of days ago, remember when it was utx and caterpillar and pfizer and

microsoft, and a number of these other companies that really had bad earnings blaming anything from currency to oil, and that's why you had the dow down so sharply, just a couple of days ago. >> i am curious to know probably too soon so tell. there were some comments from schumer after janet yellen's meeting with senate democrats, where she expressed confidence on the economy and patience in the interest rate front. we'll talk to traders just a bit. in the meanwhile, we'll call it a tail of two burger joints. this was the scene of a white castle opening in las vegas yesterday, drawing a huge line as vegas, believe it or not, has never had a white castle before. it got so busy they ran out of food and had to even close for a time. >> wow! meanwhile, no such lines at mcdonald's these days, in vegas or anywhere else, for that matter, but mcdonald's is one of the best-performing dow components, as we just mentioned. the fast food giant replacing don thompson after a dismal quarterly report a few days ago.

chief branding officer takes the helm on march the 1st and shares getting a nice lift up better than 5%. >> what does the company need to do to get its mojo back? jordan posner is a managing director at matrix asset advisers. and scott ralph from lakeview asset management. jordan, first to you. are you as encouraged as everybody else seems to be about this ceo turnover? >> well we think it is not surprising to us but we're happy about it nonetheless. it's an example of the board finally realizing, i think, that they were under pressure the company was under pressure and the change had to be made. so obviously, there was some displeasure at the board, with either the speed, direction, or magnitude of the changes that were taking place. est er brooks seems to be like a good guy. had some success. we're encouraged. the company has a lot of raw material to work with.

>> scott, was this ceo of fault or just a secular issue that mcdonlgdmc mcdonalds east is caught up in? >> first, thanks for having me. actually, i was disappointed with this change. i was very happy by the fact that don thompson was taken out of his role. i think he was in over his head. but what i was really hoping for is for mcdonald's to bring in someone from outside of the company. someone who can take a look at the company and give a fresh perspective, go top to bottom and see what this company needs to do to move to the next level. >> why was he in over his head? he was there for so long he was the chief operator when they were humming. why is he in over his head? >> i think that was the problem. i think that basically, he was just, you know running off of an old business model. look, the company improved over the course of the past decade when we had jim cantloop come in charlie bell and his

predecessor. i don't think that donald thompson was doing anything more than just running off of the fumes that these gentleman produced. that's my opinion. >> jordan meanwhile, this goes back to a point josh brown was making on scott's show this afternoon. does mcdonald's simply have a reputation problem, especially with the millennials who are sorting their economic buying power here. and if so why do you think easterbrook will be able to change that? >> i think the issue has to do with mcdonald's being what mcdonald's is. it's not for everybody. there's a focus on value and on convenience here. and that has a place. i think that easterbrook can position that story with consumers, on the one hand. on the other hand there's a lot of financial moves that can be done here. and if the board pursues them in conjunction with some kind of a turn you can actually get a multiplier effect. and whether that's greater share repurchases, whether it's monetizing real estate and refranchising it in a more important way, there's a lot of benefits that can come from the

financial side that will leverage the benefits from the turn on the operating side. >> scott, would you sell your position as a result of your unhappiness or what? >> let me tell you that we brought our original position investment position on the day that the mad cow scare came out. i believe it was 2003. we sold it ten years later. we now hold a very small position, just for the dividend. and the stock has severely underperformed. i don't think relative to other restaurant stocks, that the opportunity, as is great for mcdonald's, so if you're looking for growth you're not going to get it. if you're looking for a safe company with a nice above market dividend that has a very low volatility, then mcdonald's is the stock you want to be in. >> jordan how long are you guys going to hang on to your position? >> we like it here. we would agree that the dividend is a major support, but there is a lot of say, unexploited opportunity in the company. we actually think our estimate of their intrinsic value is

probably about 25% or more higher from here. and we think that if you've got a long-term investment horizon, 12 to 18 months that this stock can actually outperform. >> you think a 25% move in 12 to 18 months jordan? >> sure. >> what levers do they have to pull to get there, aside from the ceo change? >> there's got to be changes in the operation that can drive. and you're starting to see some traction with some of the advertising. you're starting to so a bottoming or at least u.s. comps in december. and importantly, again, we're not going to tell them how to run their business. we think they built a great business and can run that but we also think that they can be -- they can do things beneficially from the financial side that can magnify. they can buy in 1500% of the stock without even breathing hard. >> it's funny, it's ironic in many respects that shake shack is going to go public tomorrow. and it just speaks to where the hype is in burgers three days.

it's much less on fast food and even when it is on fast food it's on wendy's and it's on burger king and it's on others who seem to be doing things either better or innovating more than mcdonald's is. and i don't know that that's going to change anytime soon. why should we believe that it is? >> the company has been able to turn, in the past there have been issues ten years ago, for example, you know, where they had to kind of reinvent themselves themselves. the company acknowledges there has to be a reinvention of product innovation. there are already changes taking place as far as marketing and menu simplification. things like that. listen mcdonald's isn't necessarily focusing on the same customer for the same appearence that shake shack is. and importantly, there's a significant price point differential. >> yeah. >> we do think that there can be a turn and mcdonald's will

maybe not become the preeminent company in terms of growth percentage, but they're still going to generate a lot of value. >> jordan, we'll leave it right there. a big story for us here in the markets. mcdonald's shares are up 5%, as mentioned, but so are a lot of other things. >> maybe it has something to do with what you were saying a little bit earlier, that janet yellen was speaking to some senators giving a fairly upbeat view of where the economy is and i guess pledging that she was going to be or the board was going to be patient, or wouldn't raise rates immediately, sort of already know that right? >> yeah and maybe reminded as well as this morning's strong jobless claims that the labor market are looking a little bit better. there's the effect across the markets. the s&p is up about 1% a little bit less than that. the nas gac gaining 41 points and the dow up better than 200 this afternoon. >> coming up, china's ecommerce giant alibaba having its worst day since going public.

the pros discuss whether alibaba's problems result simply from the economic slowdown in china or if there's a bigger issue inside the company. and later, after the bell earnings from amazon google villa, and biogen. we'll get you the numbers you need to know with instant analysis. it all starts right after the bell. stay tuned.

welcome back. so we have a comeback session here for the markets. the dow is up 209 points. there are some weak spots, though. one of them is alibaba and another yahoo! for the same reason. other earnings have helped this market this week and that includes apple. we've got a whole ton of tech names on bat right after the bell. that will have a lot to do on how we close out the week and the month here scott. >> alibaba getting hit hard today on its earnings miss. this surprising turn of events has tech watchers wondering if there's a problem with the ecommerce giant, or just a problem with the slowing chinese economy. >> for more insight, let's bring in dennis burrman, editor of the "wall street journal," and jonathan broadscee. let's welcome to you both. dennis let's start with you. how did investors get this one so wrong? >> well maybe people have been talking this stock up since the ipo, kelly. it's been pretty incredible to see the run up and certainly the run-up after the ipo a number of

months ago. of course, the stock was up 120 earlier in the fall so it has fallen a little bit since then. but i would say overall, if it's not priced close to perfection it was priced near perfection. and you know when you have these growth-oriented stocks, if you miss by more than a penny, you're going to get hit. and that was the case with alibaba. so it's not an existential number by any means. >> let's be clear, this was not a bad quarter. people are making it out to be that it was. but, okay, their mobile monetization growth was not as high as some people had expected. their revenue growth was still big, not just to the highest of high expectations expected it to be. >> look this is a growth stock. we're value investors and look at some of the ultimate manies that these growth stocks have and look at it and say, if there's a miss or a problem, the stock price does not have a lot of support. the fact that it was down only 10% or in that range is indicative of the expectations

that were in there. >> so you actually think that -- so what would you say after looking at the quarter has changed, if anything about the trajectory for this company's growth? >> for us when we see what's happened over the last 24 hours, we're not quite as focused on revenue or earnings. we're looking at this issue with the government coming out and i sag, there are problems with counterfeit goods inside of alibaba. this is a fascinating development for us. we've been investing in china for a very long period of time and we've been wondering when this intellectual property law issue was going to evolve. you've seen conversation about corruption, you've seen conversation about improving the overall environment and environmental issues. the intellectual property conversation is one that's fascinating from a long-term investment standpoint. and the reason for that is chinese stocks that are listed outside of china, and of course some that are listed in the u.s., tend to trade at very big discounts, because of issues with governance with intellectual property issues et cetera. is this the first shot across

the bow from the government saying, we're going to start taking this more seriously? if that's the case long-term, that could be very interesting for chinese stocks. >> hey, quickly -- >> weigh in weigh in. >> i think he put that stuff very well, in a very articulate fashion. it's really incredible as one of my colleagues said to me today, that never happens, when a ceo or a company inside china, challenges the chinese government, as she put it, that never happens. to my mind that's the most significant thing that's happened in the week. whether they hit their mobile numbers orbit ss or not, the question is can they keep peace with the chinese government. and more interestingly, on the financial side. i would look at it from that perspective too. >> thanks guys. jonathan real quick, you use the word "interesting," are you basically saying investors should steer clear of some of these names, until whether we know this is the first shot across the bow?

>> as it relates to alibaba, it's not a stock that would fit our criteria. we look at chinese criterias, especially those that are listed in hong kong as offering extreme value right now. so there's a disconnect in certain regions, from where there's opportunities. we think that this could be a very interesting development, given where valuations are for a number of these securities. we would be very interested in making additional investments. . >> oh, all right. >> i gooseuys, thanks. >> we have a big push into the close here for the stock market. i know we'll see you soon. >> usually people use "interesting" in that way, disparaging. no in this case compelling. a compelling move in markets. the dow's. 241. >> coming up wall street salivating over shake shack's ipo. the burger joint expected to price its shares after the close. we'll serve up that info the second it hates the tape. >> up and next the earnings estimates that could make or break wall street tomorrow. our dominic chu runs through

today's huge batch after the break. don't go anywhere.

. all right. welcome back. there's your market picture right now. the dow jones industrial average is up more than 220 points. a positive day, all across the board, reversing the losses of

the past couple of days. and we are going to get some direction, perhaps, on where we'll open tomorrow in just a few minutes. and you know those earnings will be covered right here on the "closing bell." amazon, google, visa biogen all of those names are reporting. you'll get the numbers and instant reaction. let's show you apple as well because apple's just about at an all-time high. just push in on that right now. >> in fact it looks like anytime it's over 119, that does put it in record-high territory. the record close looks like 119 from december 26th of last year. so we're right now at 119.05. shares are up 3% as their continue strong performance after that earnings beat. dominic chu has more on the earnings numbers to watch today. >> $119.75, is the record intraday high in terms of share price for apple. let's start with the earnings stories this afternoon. let's start with amazon expected to earn 17 cents a share in its fourth quarter, sales of about $29.7 billion. analysts will be looking at their online holiday shopping

data, so we'll see those amazon shares, you can see up by about 2.5%. the options market right now says think or swim pricing in what could be a 7% move in those shares. also, google looking for a gain of about $7.11 per share. sales of $18.5 billion. the street will be very interested in its organic revenue growth also the ad market overall for online spending. you can see those shares about flat on the day. the options market here, at least for the class "a" shares predicting about a 4% move that according to think or swim. and visa expected to earn $2.49 in its fiscal first quarter on sales of $3.3 billion. investors will be scrutinizing its currency hedging strategy. visa shares up by about 0.5%. and biogen i dek looking for a profit of $2.67. the multiple sclerosis drug will be a key measure for the company. we'll have team coverage bing

here, 4:00 p.m. eastern time right on the "closing bell". >> thank you, dom. 15 minutes to go. if you're watching markets with the dow up 225 points. we mentioned apple's in record territory. again, closing above $119, it would be a record for the company since closing above that level on november 25th last year. >> a filled to the brim "closing bell" is headed your way. plus, shake shack's ipo price, and blackrock president rob kapito will speak to us and you exclusively on the markets, the fed, how he's steering black rock's $4 trillion in assets. we're back in two minutes.

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big day for stocks today after two consecutive rough days for stocks. and even with today's gains, the major averages are still looking at their first back-to-back monthly losses since the spring of 2012. so it's been a rough going for the last couple of months.

>> we'll see if the dow can hold on to that 200-point gain. art cashin just walking by indicating there's about 300 million to sell. the s&p and nasdaq both almost 1% today. >> joining us now is quincy crosby from prudential financial and our very own mary thompson. mary, what do you think about, you know, why the market here has certainly picked up steam within the last say, hour and a half heading into the close, up more than 200 points? >> you know i think it's interesting to watch the action throughout the day, right around $11.15, 11:30, those were the session lows and the session lows for the price of oil. the market has been trading very closely with oil. and as oil continues to rise we saw the markets rise. and at the end of the day, you saw an uptick in the acceleration in the gains we saw in the big tech names, financials, and industrials as well. those are really one of the reasons we're pushing markets a little bit higher in the last hour or so of trading. >> quincy a tough couple of months for the market. is it buying opportunity? >> you know, we saw the two-year

swap spread come in. that's a sign that fear of system risk has eased. gold is down high yield has come in a little bit. that's a very nice backdrop for the market as long as earnings can stay supportive. and i think as long as we get that tone underneath the market the market can move higher. >> what are your favorite sectors, here, quincy as well. what names do you like? >> right now, we're a bit defensive. we like yields. so we like the dividends in health care consumer staples, you've got to have yields returns in utilities and reits. but going through the year we'll go more into small and midcap as that consumer gets stronger in the u.s. >> i guess mary after the fed is out of the way here it gets back to earnings and it's certainly going to do that pretty quickquickly, with google and amazon, stocks i know you'll be following as well tomorrow which will tell the direction on where we're going to go. >> i think another thing to watch tomorrow is the first

quarter gdp, as well as if there are any surprises, that could certainly have an impact on the market. but one that i'm watching in particular is amazon in large part because i'm wondering whether investors are going to you know, what they will focus on the stock's been under pressure over the last year. there's concerns about spending and will the spend to revenue ratio be i guess, to investors' liking when that company reports. so that's one in particular i'm interested in seeing. >> you know quincy meanwhile, just a quick question. when you see germany slipping into deflation like it did this morning, what if anything does that mean for you? >> it means that the ecb is going to keep going and going and push that euro down as much as they can. you know the euro had traded as if it were the deutsche mark for so long. and then the minute you know, or we saw german data get worse and worse. that's when the ecb realized they had to verbally intervene. they're not going to stop until the german data starts to pick up and we start seeing signs of demand and inflation picking up. >> that's for sure. we'll leave it right there, then, for the moment.

quincy, thank you so much. mary thompson great to see you. scott? >> we're back with the closing countdown after this short break. and after the break, earnings from amazon google visa biogen, we'll have the numbers and the instant analysis. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. r nothing. the quietest or nothing. the sleekest... ...sexiest ...baddest ...safest, ...tightest, ...quickest... ...harshest... ...or nothing. at mercedes-benz, we do things one way or we don't do them at all. introducing the all-new c-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets

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hour or so looks like this right here. up 220 for the dow, but i already told you, the major averages are going to go out, they're going to track, at least, to have their first back-to-back monthly the declines since the spring of 2012. three individual stock stories i want to highlight for you'll right now. boeing had pretty good earnings and really a tale of a few days for these big dow stocks. a couple of days ago, a number of them were under pressure. the date dow was down 290. good earnings from boeing the stock's up 6%. you know about the management change by now at mcdonald's. that stock a big, big winner today and certainly adding a number of points to the dow, up better than 5%. how about apple? worth keeping an eye on this. certainly yesterday, carl icahn coming on ceo langalong with his son, bret and portfolio manager saying really good things about that company. the stock is just below its all-time high. all-time high close would be

under over $119. keep an eye on that. here with matt cheslock. good to see you. so the last couple of days rough. today, up. make some sense of it. >> obviously, tuesday was the market conditions with the weather and stuff. there was really light action. >> and the earnings were bad, though. >> the earnings were bad. we'll get a nice cross section tonight into tomorrow. if we can continue this kind of rally, but this is a snap-back rally from the trading range we've seen. this may be nothing more than a little bit of snap back. >> were you confused that guys down here and girls on the floor, confused about what the fed said yesterday? did you not know what to do how to trade it? >> you're confused with the accelerated sell-off late in the day. i think that worried people going into this morning. obviously with earnings if we have a bad one, we could see this market go lower. so we'll really watch tomorrow. i'm not so certain that this is going to hold but this may be nothing more than a snapback. >> do you feel like we are going to be in some sort of period of consolidation before we you know hit, get into february,

maybe into the spring and start to move higher or not? >> we'll have to look to the next quarter. we keep saying that. we look at this economy isand say, we're moving forward. we have a lot of head winds in our face. europe, oil, a lot of those things will start coming to the market. >> will we continue to track oil? mary thompson making that point a short time ago in our discussion on the desk that as oil started to move higher the stock market hit its lows of the day, bottomed and we have this move up? >> we had a bigger snap back in the market than we did oil. but there's a lot of value investors that may try to swing trade that. as they're going to swing trade this market as we seem to be struck, range bound. >> stock picker's market or buy the market itself? >> you know, i know you guys discussed this a little bit earlier. >> we did. >> and i think there are stocks that you're going to stay away from after their earnings. there's no reason to go into a position with some of these names out there, after the gains they've had. you stay away from them and buy the market as a whole. stay away from individual stocks. >> good to see you. matthew cheslock.

dow jones industrial average up 220, as we head to the close. a little more than ten seconds to go. and they know about the big earnings that are about to hit. take google, amazon, visa others. we'll break all of that down next. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans and we've got some big earnings on tap as we wrap up what has been a huge week with some big movers a lot of them in the tech pace and that will continue. any moment we'll hear from the likes of google and amazon. wall street finishing the day on a positive session. moving higher on the close. there were some sell orders but the dow going out with a gain of 225 points. that's go ahead for 1.31%. the s&p adding almost 1%. 43 higher despite alibaba

getting hit on its disappointing results. for more on what to make of markets and for more on earnings, let's bring in today's panel. steve wood joins us. welcome. david sieberg and sharon epperson. also, we have "fast money" trader, brian kelly. so glad you're with us, because you know where i'm going with this. all about the federal reserve here. is yesterday's decline now a distant memory or are people feeling better today after a better jobless numbers, yellin talking positively the senate democrats, perhaps? >> well i'll tell you what it's funny what a couple hundred points in the dow will do for sentiment. it will change things real quick. i'm in the camp it's probably not over yet. the u.s. stock market to me is kind of in a tough place here right? because what we're talking about is capital flowing into the u.s. to me that's the reit coming off of the federal reserve. they'll remain lower for longer and remain patient. that will cause people to buy u.s. bonds and the u.s. dollar. whether or not that money leaks

into the stock market is unclear to me. i think this is a very tough buy in the market right now. >> steve, very good capital flows and bad capital flows. in other words, if people are piling in because day don't want to be anywhere else, that could contribute to bubbles here in this country. do you see any signs of that? >> i think it's premature to say we're in a bubble right now. the fundamentals in the united states from a macroeconomic perspective, good and improving. he was commenting on the federal reserve. i would agree, third quarter, maybe september meeting, makes sense for the federal reserve to move. the data that we've seen right now, the fed is going to do exactly what they want to do as they said they want to do it, and inflation, wages, nothing will force the fed's hand. i don't think we get a 1994 surprise. >> david, you guys agree? >> i do agree absolutely. is brian still on? i have a question for him about the rally. we have a guy that's incredible with information. pat pet raracony came out and sent me an e-mail about the news that hit about 8:00 with the cash repatriation and whether or not that was going to be massively

positive, and in his eyes for tech companies. >> we'll get to a couple of these earnings and circle back to this important point. amazon results are out. let's get to our julia boorstin with the numbers. >> kelly big upside surprise in earnings for amazon. amazon reporting 45 cents in earnings per share, that's compared to analyst's expectations of 17 cents per share. it is down from the 51 cents per earnings per share in the year ago quarter. the company's net sales increased 15% to 29.33 billion. that's a little bit lighter than expected. wall street had been looking for $29.67 billion. the company highlighting right out of the gate the very top of the earnings release, prime, saying in 2014 alone, we paid billions of dollars for prime shipping and invested $1.3 billion in prime instant videos. so that $1.3 billion investment in prime instant video is a huge sign of just how much amazon is willing to spend to get those prime subscribers, with the idea that they will spend more money

on the service. and we continue to dig through here and we'll get back to you with more. >> great stuff. julia, thank you. we're joined by david garrity. amazon shares were up better than 4% on this news. are you a buyer? >> no i wouldn't be. i would be a seller. i think coming off the fourth quarter, which is seasonally the best quarter for the company, we'll see weaker numbers in the first quarter and second quarter of next year primarily to the company's exposure to weaker economies overseas, not in the u.s. >> sharon? >> i have a question about amazon prime. if they're putting so much money behind it, $1.3 billion, what about competitors like shoprunner. you know for consumers who want a price point that's a little bit lower than that 99 bucks, they're going to go elsewhere. shoprunner is one of those places $79. what do you think about the impact on amazon, if they're putting a lot of effort on amazon prime? >> anyone can some out and have expedited shipping and i agree with you, and customers will go where they get the best value.

and amazon away from the prime business itself, their not saying they're going to dis, continue things like their fire phone or their other efforts, which obviously haven't necessarily been as profitable as people have thought. i think people are excited here after the close, because the company beat on the bottom line even though the top line itself was soft relative to expectations. are people thinking all of a sudden margins for amazon are turning around? i'm happy to see that things outperformed in their strongest fourth quarter but can we see these margins extend into the first quarters second quarters and third quarters of 2013? i think the jury is still out on that. i would sell the stock. >> look amazon we're well off the 52-week highs, which were something like 406. and you can see the positive response. by the way, a different story here for google after-hours. let's get right out to those quarterly results here with our josh lipton. josh? >> kelly, google just reporting, let me get you the numbers, google reporting 688 on $18.1 billion. the street was looking for 711

on $18.5 billion. that is a miss on the bottom and the top. going to comb through this release, bringing more headlines as we get them. back to you. >> josh thank you very much. let's try to get those numbers up on the screen for everybody. so 688 versus the 711 estimate that's for the epps side the revenues a miss as well. shares interestingly, right now, david, are only down a little bit after-hours. the initial response was more negative 37 negative. what do you think's going on? >> they expected it to be a little bit disappointing. it's just you know based on the spending and sort of the direction they've been going. >> why is amazon spending a good thing and google's a bad? >> because amazon basically is spending like a drunken sailor. they have no direction on where they're going and i think you look at the gross margins, it's a very telling sign. you know, i look at google and say google is spending money very clearly to get to you know, to get to that -- to get a chain of people that are absolutely going to be watching ton their network, which is a

completely different structure. you know it's really fee search product. long-term, i think google is a stock you want to own. >> you're contrarian on these names. >> but i think you have to be -- amazon, i can't stand them. i think they're spending money for the wrong reasons, and i think it's been very clear in the stock and i think investors realize that. >> david, what do you think? >> i think with respect to google spending their money, goog sl a nicely profitable company. i think the reason we have a miss on the top line will be this transition over towards mobile search from desktop. and obviously the pricing there is weaker and may have given us some of the disappointment on the revenue side. but at the end of the day, i would rather buy a company that's growing and that has margins than a company like amazon, where you've got a ceo who's totally indifferent to the street or outside investors or actually returning cash to shareholders. granted, google's not doing that, but google has more to walk around with than amazon does. the real story for amazon here

is that they decide to spin off their amazon web services business and then you'll get to see what the underlying business is really worth. >> i want to be fair about this cash point. this is one of the first points as a public company that besos ever made about amazon its focus on returning cash. they're reinvesting it. today, at least, david garrity, investors don't seem seem as troubled by their decision to invest heavily in these areas. >> at some point in time though, you have to get a return of investment. there was a guy named will rogers back in the 1930s who said return of investment is more important than return on investment. obviously, jeff at some point in time has to give shareholders back some of the money he's been using in such a cavalier fashion. >> hang on. we have another component to get to. dow component visa reporting its earnings. for this bellwether mary thompson has the earnings. >> better than expected results for visa and the company's board has authorized a 4-for-1

stock split. the company will start trading on a split-adjusted back on march 19th. the company beating on the bottom line $2.53, 4 cents ahead of estimates. revenue slightly ahead of estimates. and i want to break down the revenue for its service fee. that was pretty much in line with expectations, as were fees for data. where it saw a better than expected result were its international fees. those for processing cross-border transactions. payments were up. a little bit more or healthier than what analysts were expecting. cross-border transactions up about 8% for the quarter. so, again, a top-line beat for visa, and most importantly, the company splitting its stock for h for-1. >> those shares are popping 4% after-hours. got to be encouraged steve, given how much focus central bank is supporting on the international backdrop. the international is where visa just saw some strength here. and how is the 4-for-1 split going to affect markets?

>> i can't comment on specific stocks, but we're see whag the federal stock is looking at. repatriation will be very very significant. but what's very heartening is it's becoming diverse. what matters, top line bottom line, so active management looking through the security by security, i think in the united states with stretched fair valuations, it will be a name-by-name valuation as we go through the market. >> brian kelly, as you hear these results come in what kind of gut feeling does it leave you with? >> i think certainly on the consumer end with visa that's going to help. i would be a little concerned about amazon because of the revenue miss. so you know, the whole story with amazon is we can generate revenue growth. well, when you miss estimates and you have compressing margins, it's a problem. so i wouldn't get too excited about amazon at these levels. >> we'll temper our enthusiasm. and biogen out with its results. for a key barometer of the

pharma, tell us how they did? >> biogen is looking at 4.09 per share in the first quarter versus analyst estimates of $3.77. a key metric everybody looks at is the big multiple sclerosis drug, came in at $916 million in the first quarter, versus analyst estimates of $882 million. a beat there as well. also providing 2015 guidance of research growth of 14 to 16% and adjust eps of $16.60 to $16.70 per share spop. so beat on earnings and in line with revenue. >> who's going to be lining up the phone line the most tomorrow? >> biogen's interesting. i would be interested to see what the mix the between u.s. and international. so the u.s. number, i think they'ret they were looking for 700. maybe it came in a touch light and they made up with it in international. but a lot of people are set up with this stock to buy it tomorrow, right? don't forget their alzheimer's program. >> is this going to be a catalyst for the rest of the

space? energy helped to lead markets higher. we don't have that help this time around. biotech is higher to its 52-week highs. i think it's going to help the space, no problem. we've definitely seen a little concern in the market in general. this is going to help. there's no doubt about it. but i think that in general, bioengine isbio biogen is a stock you want to own. i would want to see the u.s. tick numbers, whether or not they come in around 690ish but that would be a solid sign. >> brian kelly? >> i think in terms of the biotechs in general, i tend to look at those as sentiment indicators right? because you're always talking about what the next drug is. so if people have confidence in the market they going to have confidence going into something that that's somewhat speculative like biotech. i know it's changed a bit. that could be a positive factor for the market tomorrow. >> david garrity, the last word to you before we go but basically we have amazon revenues missing. we've got google with its

biggest earnings miss since the second quarter of 2013. does this change the narrative for you generally in the tech space going forward? >> i think in the tech space, we'll be looking at sequential declines going from the fourth quarter into the third quarter. so typically you'll see a pullback in the sector. i think the stock market overall right now is volatile enough. obviously, you see cyclical growth names getting hit because of oil and the dollar. i think that stable secular growth names like a visa possibly also a biogen idec and i would buy google on this pullback. i would not chase amazon. >> thank you, david. by the way, david, are you an amazon prime subscriber? >> yes, we are. we love taking moneying from jeff. >> that's exactly what i figured. thank you so much for joining us. really appreciate it. david garrity this afternoon. brian kelly as well. the rest of the panel will be back with more on these after-hours earnings. when we come right back and how should you be putting money to work in this volatile market? we'll get $4.6 trillion worth of investment advice when black rock president rob kapito joins us coming up on the "closing bell." you won't want to miss it.

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welcome back with some breaking news on the senate voting on that controversial keystone pipeline. eamon javers, what's happening? >> the republican-controlled senate just passed that keystone xl pipeline bill.

the measure passed 62-36 here. two senators not voting today. obviously, republicans backing in control in the united states senate. this is a big priority for them up there. we're going to have to wait and see now whether they're going to reconcile this with the house bill or simply send this one along to the president of the united states. ultimately, though it's expected that president obama would vito a keystone bill. sol all of this might be sort of a political exercise at this point. but republicans putting a marker down saying, they're now in control in the united states senate. >> yeah, we were watching to see if they would get 67. eamonn thank you very much for that. meanwhile, our julia boorstin is digging a little bit deeper into those amazon results we're just getting. julia, what else are you seeing request m >>m? >> a lot of people are very interested in amazon prime. a lot of investors were hoping to get a total number of amazon prime subscribers. they did not say that but worldwide membership to amazon prize rose despite amazon raising the prices for amazon

prime, saying it grew 50% in the u.s. and a little bit faster overseas. another thing i want to point out, kelly, is amazon's guidance for q1 the quarter we're currently in was a little bit lighter than wall street analysts had been expecting, but that's not hurting the stock at all, up about 7%. >> it certainly is. back with us for more on google and amazon earnings "fast money" trader, brian kelly, and we're bringing in bernard golden, vp of active state for a fresh take on these earnings. bernard, amazon's up 7% and what's your view on the shares from here? >> reporter: well, i mean it looks like post-announcement, people like what their numbers were. so i expect that we'll see more of that going forward to probably higher up tomorrow i would expect. with a perspective that you know, i was here in july and the big gripe about them then was, they're not showing enough pro profitability or margin so i expect they'll have a pretty positive response to their

announcement today. >> you're generally bullish. you own the shares? >> i do not own amazon shares. given what i do i think that would probably not be appropriate. >> my apologies, then but you like the shares? i want to be clear on that going into this report and it sounds like you still like amazon here. can you give us a couple of key reasons why you think they're headed higher or why you like the name? >> well, your guest identified one, you just talked about it. my family had over 200 amazon prime orders this year we watch a ton of video, it's a huge value. so amazon prime, i think, is a big deal. within the cloud computing space where i work amazon is really the dominant player there, and they're continuing to rollout great innovation. i think they've got a lot going for them. and it's clear from their announcement today they have a handle on their financials because they can adjust their investment patterns so they can deliver the kind of margins they want to do. >> sharon? >> one of the things that some analysts have been pointing out to be a key driver in amazon's

growth going forward is looking at the operating revenue versus operating expenses, and what we've seen in this latest report, does that give you some belief that amazon will be stronger in this area? that they're going to have a better ratio there when you're looking at revenues versus expenses? bernard? >> well the biggest constraint for amazon in their business is how much capital do they invest? they operate against their operating cash flow. they want to run that so they're investing. they view their life as having -- or their business as having huge opportunity, and they're only constrained by their capital. and they have a lot of control over that because they can choose how much capital to invest. i think they watch that very carefully. they've clearly adjusted it to give the kind of margin that people were asking for. i think they'll continue to watch that very carefully and evaluate how much capital to invest, so they can manage their margin. >> and again, a 7% move after

those earnings. let's leave that for one second and talk a little bit about google. a miss here. one of the biggest in several quarters. in fact, on the earnings side the stock wasn't behaving all that well going into the results. you can see they're down about 2% after-hours. you know, brian kelly, what is this telling you? is it a google-specific issue. something broader about advertising or the shift to mobile here that's at fault? >> it would shock me if google had a problem with shifting to mobile. this is their whole game, this is their whole business. facebook was able to do it quite well. so i would imagine google could do it quite well. we'll have to wait for the call to see. it does concern me a bit. can you read across and say that advertising might be slowing a bit? we have seen some indicators in the economy that show that things have decelerated a bit. o start to put the pieces together and you might say things are slowing down a bit. >> i just find it interesting, we talk about the investments that google's making versus amazon google feeding that kind

of pipeline for search. i look at google they're spending a lot of money investing in overseas. they've apparently put a tremendous amount of effort in that, in fiberoptic whatever it might be. what's your thoughts on that brian? i think that's an important point. i look at brazil and south africa and the amount of efforts they're putting in there. >> is that going to pay off? >> it's a long-term proposition, but i think it's going to pay off for them. that's why i think now, the stock's relatively cheap, expectations weren't high a lot of shorts into the quarter. i look at it and say it's a buy here. >> brian? >> listen positioning wise trading wise i certainly would not want to press shorts here. in the long run, i think you're right. if you think of any company and google in general, that the value is some kind of function of the size of its network, if you can increase that network size and that's what you're spending on, it all flows to the top line. that's a long run type of thing. i would not tomorrow morning go out and short google though. >> we'll leave it right there, giving you the last record. thank you, brian, for sticking

around, and our thanks to bernard golden, as well. really appreciate it this afternoon. be sure to stick around to catch brian kelly coming up more on "fast money" at 5:00 p.m. and they'll have the latest from amazon and google's earnings calls. that will be a big factor for the shares as well. don't miss it. straight ahead here, it's been a rough start to the year for the bulls, with all three major averages now in the red for january. but should investors be buying this dip? blackrock president rob kapito is here exclusively. you'll want to ipay attention. and the number of people with more than $1 million in their 401(k) plans has doubled over the past two years. that's still only about 70,000 people. what are these folks doing right? the secret to their millionaire success, coming up. already 55 companies are investing over $98 million dollars and creating over 2100 jobs. from long island to all across upstate new york, more businesses are coming to new york. they are paying no property taxes no corporate taxes no sales taxes. and with over 300 locations, and 3.7 million square feet available,

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welcome back. we begin with our dominic chu and a quick earnings alert. >> we're watching what's happening with deckers outdoor. the stock is moving lower, after the company reported weaker than expected third quarter guidance in terms of earnings. its guidance for the fourth quarter is break-even from 15 cents a share and it blamed what else but the strong dollar. here you can see those shares down by about 14% in the after-hours trade. now, a different story. it posted than weaker than expected earnings but it's going higher on the news it's expected to separate into two publicly traded companies. the crane business accounted for

$1.2 billion worth of everyone. the food service business reported annual revenues of $1.6 billion last year and remember, activist investor carl icahn has been pushing for a split into these two companies. he's got nearly 8% of the shares outstanding outstanding. >> my next guest is bullish on america, but says we're not immune to a global slowdown. he also thinks people are sitting on too much cash. maybe he is too. rob kapito is president of blackrock. welcome. great to have you here. >> thank for having me. >> it's interesting you raised the cash issue. it's one that's ailing corporates generally, you want people informsed more. but what should they be invested in when they see both stock and bond prices pretty much at all-time highs? >> well this volatility is a real problem in that just when we were getting people to recognize that they need to be invested in the market more volatility comes and they go

back in cash. and also a lot of people said the market was overvalued and they're waiting for a pullback. a pullback comes and they still don't invest into the market place. and cash is really a deterrent to investing for your future especially in retirement. and in this country and around the world, people have not saved enough for environmentretirement. this is going to be the biggest issue of our lifetime. my message to everyone is to get invested in the market place and try to put some of this noise away. there's always noise in the market place. but last year when we talked same issue in january, and the market returned 13.5%. bonds, you could have made 6.5% and every day you wait you're getting further and further behind, especially in a low interest rate environment, which we expect to continue it's going to be hard to catch up.

>> and we're going to talk about the retirement market. and bill gross said the problem with capitalism we seem to have lost our hope or belief in the system, or that it's all working, and that being involved is kind of a bet that the future profits will come and we will have these new companies, et cetera. do you get that sense, and he wlams central banks, saying they've distorted the whole picture and kept people on the sidelines. >> well certainly, the picture is a bit distorted, but if you take it to a more microlevel, most companies have been buying back their stock and raising dividends, rather than investing in capital goods and other things. so the stock market doesn't have enough equities because people are not replacing that with ipos. so we're running out of equities to buy. the so past valuations you may have looked at are going to be different. at the same time central bankers are buying all the

bonds. and we're running out of bonds to buy and running out of duration. so in a sense, that's a wind behind you. so today, i think you need to be invested. and now you need to think forward to some of the big trends that are occurring. one of the biggest trends has been technology. and we're living through and seeing the impact of technology every single day. and the second thing is oil prices. this drop is actually quite extraordinary. and i would like to do is have people think a little bit about where there are companies and entities that are going to be the beneficiary of low oil prices. just think about it. when you go fill your car up with gas, maybe you put $50 in. it's expensive. >> yeah. >> and today you may be able to pull up and put $25. what do you do with that other $25? you're going to spend it probably, on some things. i hope you would save some but we're spenders in this country.

so what goods are you going to spend? so i think the consumer discretionary goods are going to see a pop. it's actually a stimulus but many countries are very dependent on importing oil, so i would want to look at some of those countries, and this is actually a stimulus that was unexpected. >> maybe india, brazil something like that. >> japan, certainly. >> and going back to your point about retail what also seems to be having that has people a little bit uncertain is the kinds of things that consumers spend on are changing. maybe a lot of it is the apple iphone and the ecosystem around there. your phone data plan or your healthcare plan. the old idea that you could buy the mall retail rs for example. look at the results we had just now from that shoe company, speak to a very different varmt. is that what you would recommend? and related to that what about people who are just in stocks for the dividend yield, because they want the yield. is that at all hurting the market or distorting the market?

>> i think it's distorting it. technological advances are changing the business models of many companies. how they deliver their goods, the information, the transparency of prices. and what you need to do is think through what's going to change. so a year and a half ago, i didn't know anything about uber and that's changed the model for how the taxi and limousine business works. there are just so many. the iphone is changing the way information is delivered. everybody talks about big data. these technological advances are taking place. it's not only making companies more efficient, but changing the models. we have to look companies that are innovators and changing their model and companies that are just lagging behind that. and i think that's where you can find some very good opportunities in the market place. that also translated to what i was talking about with oil, as

well. but nothing is going to be more important than understanding that our population is getting older, you're going to live longer than you thought you were going to live and you certainly have not saved enough for retirement. and you can't invest for the future in the future. >> got to do it now. >> i can tell you if the surveys we've done more cash is in people's hands than ever before. and i believe they're afraid because of the volatility. and there are some really interesting numbers i could share with you on this that the baby boomers and others that are older are not saving money. they're nervous because they've gone through the financial crisis and lost a lot. the millennials are actually saving. and the reason they're saving is they didn't own a house, they didn't have a lot of money, they didn't go through the financial crisis. and they're actually spending a third of their time that they spend on the internet on looking for opportunities in the financial sector. so the millennials are saving

but we need to get other people thinking about it. and this is the time in this market. you've had your pullback. get invested. you have another buyer of bonds that's out there that's pretty big that will keep rates low and you have companies buying their own equities. so i think the valuations and the way we think about it have to change. and take into account technological advances and shocks like the oil shock that we just saw and how you can benefit from being a long-term investor in that sector. >> rob kapito thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> rob kapito from blackrock this afternoon, with some words of hope for this market. a surging stock market has helped double the number of people with more than $1 million in their 401(k), but it is not the only secret to their success. so speaking of which, how can you follow the lead of these folks to retirement riches that are so important in this country? that's straight ahead. also shake shack's highly anticipated ipo could price any moment now. we'll get you full team coverage as soon as that happens.

keep it right here. "closing bell" is back in two.

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welcome back. the number of people who saved $1 million in their 401(k) has doubled lately. there are still not a lot of people who can call themselves 401(k) millionaires. sharon epperson has the details. >> the thing that's interesting, it doesn't take making $1 million to actually become a millionaire. look at what these people have done. we have seen the number of 401(k) millionaires double in the past two years, five times as many as we had a decade ago. we're now at 72,000 folks, according to fidelity investments. that's the nation's largest provider of 40 11(k) plans. that's a tiny fraction of the 401(k) plan participants that they have. a lot of them have these things in common. they're about 60 years old, on average. they have contributed last year $21,400. because they're 60 or older, they're eligible for the catch-up contribution, so they can contribute a bit more to their 401(k), and they are meeting the company match. and that's a key point. a lot of 401(k) holders need to

make sure they don't leave that free money on the table, and that has been what the 401(k) millionaires have done. the other thing they've done is invest for growth, invest for the long-term. yes, they may be near 60 years old, but still 72% in equity funds. a lot of that is in domestic equities. just a proportion of that in company stocks and in international equities as well. they have a nice mix there in the stock market and they're not afraid to be in there and ride out the volatility. that seems to be the key to these 401(k) millionaires amassing that figure. >> good stuff, sharon. thank you. let's talk more about this 401(k) surge. joining us now is jonathan clements a columnist for the "wall street journal." welcome. >> great to be here. >> it's great to hear there are more 401(k) millionaires but that only really gives you $40,000 a year to live off. i say, "only." it's still better than most people are doing. but there are a lot of people who are used to living on a lot more than that. >> if you go to financial planners, they'll talk about something called a 4% withdrawal

rate. which means if you have $1 million upon retirement that will generate just $40,000 a year on retirement income. add social security you might be at $60,000. that's okay but it's not like you're taking cruises around the world. and moreover most people don't have nearly that much money. the employee benefit research institute does this annual retirement conference survey. last year's survey found that half of workers age 55 and older have $50,000 or less in retirement savings. >> what's going to happen here? >> well people need to save more. they're not going to be prepared to retire. and we're going to see a lot of folks working well past 67 the retirement age for many people today. they're going to be working in retirement. so they need to start thinking now what they're going to be doing at that stage of life, what they're going to be doing in terms of their passion or the necessity that they'll have to work. and also think about where they're going to live. because $60,000 may be fine for folks to live in in some parts of the world. maybe not here on the east coast in new york city. >> how do people get to $1

million? >> they need to max out as much as they can. pre-tax, employer match, profit sharing, whatever they can. being very disciplined. and you were talking the previous segment about risks and volatility in the market. by investing long-term, that kind of minimizes your ability to self-inflict wounds due to current volatility. but also one of the biggest risks to portfolio is going to be longevity risks. outliving your money. and if you have a married couple, women living longer than men. maybe for men, it's not as pressing an issue. but the longevity of women, that's a very significant risk to the portfolio, is outliving your money. >> what would you recommend, jonathan last word? >> i think about delaying social security for as long as possible potentially as late as age 70. that's going to address that longevity risk. >> and potentially get a little bit more than you would if you left the workforce early is that right? >> if you can stay in the workforce as long as possible and put off claiming social security for as long as possible, you'll be in a lot better shape for retirement.

>> jonathan clements, thank you for coming by. appreciate it. on such an important issue. and we've got a quick market flash here. dominic chu back at headquarters, what can you tell us? >> just to clarify a few things. the stock split is important for a lot of traders. it affects some of the mathematics that goes into the dow industrial average, components, at least the calculation of it. with this four for one split, the analysts have kind of crunched the really quick numbers here. currently, visa is the most heavily weighted member of the dow, worth a little over 9%. with this 4 for 1 stock put, you're talking about a stock that goes to 2.5% rating. when this does happen goldman sachs will then become the most heavily weighted member of the dow. it will cover about a 7% rating. so the first initial devise or change will adjust mathematically for what's going to happen with the dow, but going forward, visa has a 2.5% waiting in the dow and goldman sachs becomes the most heavily weighted member of the dow, having about a 7% weight there,

kelly. >> dom, thank you for walking us through that. it's going to be an important issue to wall. oil prices falling below $45 to fresh six-year lows. how are those accommodateing man camps? the head of one oil services provider tells us how he's coping with the oil shock. and will the price be right for shake shack's ipo? we should get that offering any second now. stick around for the pricing, when we come back.

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welcome back. the recent plunge in oil prices is not just hitting oil producers, target logistics provides temporary housing and other on-location services for oil field workers. and in the industry a lot of insiders call them man camps, but for more we're joined by the ceo of target logistics' parent company. jean marc thank you for being here. and tell us first of all, what kind of impact this drop in oil has had on your business. >> thank you for having me kelly. well clearly, we are well beyond the price correction in oil prices. and this is affecting us. oil and gas is about 17% of our business, worldwide. so we're seeing our customers deferring capital expenditures looking for cost reductions service providers, but also

looking forward, because they're in it for the long run, and so are we. >> what i don't quite follow though, is how this could take such a toll on a rival, went public last year. its shares have traded down precipitously. and they say it's squarely because of the drop in oil. why do you guys think you're going to or are able to weather the better? >> so as i said our business is very diversified. so first of all, 83% of our business is outside the oil and gas sector so this is obviously, helping us. but in our oil and gas activities we are seeing a very strong auto book going into 2013, and we are expecting a slowdown later in the year but at the moment we have a very strong book. we're lined up with very strong customers, 70% of our customers are fortune 500 companies, and we are seeing constant need for our services. >> you know, david -- >> go ahead.

yep? >> yeah i was in williston two weeks ago, and there is a concern with the guests in our lodges, so people are looking at, you know, layoffs and all that. it's not affected us yet, but there is concern. no panic, but concern. zpr david sieberg, i was just going to ask. we don't have much time but is this because investors are so eager to play the energy space, given these valuations that they're still putting money into this space. that this company and others haven't seen more of an impact? >> it could be. look we saw the dislocation across the board in these names. i just question you know, what's going to offset it. i look you're in health care you're in you know, technology you've got some construction businesses that you're exposed to. i wonder if that's enough to offset the losses in oil and gas. and i look at mining and say, that's not doing very well. so i just don't understand how you're going to see less of a negative impact in most of these other -- than these companies are experiencing. >> jean mark? >> yeah sure.

so we've had some difficulties in mining and namely in australia. and we are expecting some slowdown in oil and gas. at the same time, we're replying to strengths we have in other segments. and the unit that is providing services is actually diversifying into other sectors like government or immigrant services in the u.s. and that's also helping us not only weather the storm, but actually come ahead as we enter 2015. >> listen, jean-marc, we appreciate you being here. a question on the minds of so many. please keep us posted as we navigate 2013. jean- jean-marc jermaine is the ceo. >> and an earnings alert, align technology, the maker of the avisline braces for your teeth,

posting weaker than expected sales, but gave first quarter guidance below forecast. >> ouch. all right, dom, thank you. oneouch. one-on-one burger chain is sizzling while the other is lukewarm. shake shack minutes away from its ipo. we will have that for you. and mcdonald's might appear to some overcooked. would you believe someone made a million dollar bet on the company? that story is next. how's the app coming? we've got to do it fast. let's do this on bluemix. you can build apps with analytics, big data, even ibm watson. that could give us the edge. let's do this on bluemix. it can provide code for you. we could be first to market. because being best is priority one. being first is priority one. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.

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well big late day surge in the market means a late day surge. what is on the hot list? >> it had a definite tech flavor to it. in the last two hours, the stocks most looked up the site were apple, facebook amazon google. people predicting a lot of spirals in the oil sector. and our friends at option action some trader placed a $3 million bet on mcdonald's stock going over $95.91 in march.

>> i am sure people want to hear about it. thank you. sunday's super bowl is television's most watched event and this years' audience may be even larger. up next we will huddle with the executive behind the new channel.

well starting this sunday nbc's spanish speaking network will become the new nbc universo. they will be broadcasting super bowl xlix with spanish speaking announcers. joining us now is the chairman for hispanic enterprises and content. joe, welcome. how much bigger will the super bowl's reach be because of the move? >> their video platforms reach over 90% of spanish america every month. by adding nbc universo being relaunched on super bowl upon sunday, that is 41 million hispanic households that will view it and it is being made available across other distributors as well. >> has language been a barrier in the past? >> no.

hispanics have watched the super bowl because we provide sap in spanish language and will continue to do that. but we will be in front of 74 million u.s. tv households because directv is launching the network in high definition. comcast, cox, available. they'll be able to see it. >> it is a cable network that is being relaunched along with more sports content. >> what about the digital platforms for nbc universal? can you watch the super bowl there? >> everything will be streamed live there online. verizon has the exclusive mobile streaming rights. we have it for spanish language. >> is your daughter going to be interested? she is a mundos fan. we have english and spanish in our household. it is a mix and match of both

languages as well. >> it is terrific. it will be bilangal. we are doing it more organically. >> is this the first network to put the super bowl in spanish? >> last year fox deportes did it. >> it is such a massive market. it is incredible. i think knewguys are going to do very well off of this. >> broadcasting it only domestically in the united states and puerto rico. >> will sports be the main focus of the rebranded network or scripted program as well? >> sports will play a very big role for us on the network. not only do we have the super bowl to launch the network. but we will have the summer olympics in 2016 and we became the home of the fifa world cup now through 2022. three of the worlds' most watched sporting nets will be on

our network, nbc universal. >> that will give you more time to practice your spanish. good luck this weekend. thank you all. "fast money"coming up in just a few moments. what is on tap? >> we are expecting the pricing for shake shack. there are not too many left. >> we are all moaning here. we will have our share tomorrow. >> "fast money"starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking new york's times square. this will be an action-packed hour of "fast money." google's big miss. the stock coming back from a 4% drop after the cfo said the company would have met earnings expectations if not for special charges last quarter. different story for amazon. the stock on a tear after being analysts' estimates for