tv Fast Money CNBC January 29, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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watched sporting nets will be on our network, nbc universal. >> that will give you more time to practice your spanish. good luck this weekend. thank you all. "fast money"coming up in just a few moments. what is on tap? >> we are expecting the pricing for shake shack. there are not too many left. >> we are all moaning here. we will have our share tomorrow. >> "fast money"starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking new york's times square. this will be an action-packed hour of "fast money." google's big miss. the stock coming back from a 4% drop after the cfo said the company would have met earnings expectations if not for special charges last quarter. different story for amazon. the stock on a tear after being analysts' estimates for earnings.
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and visa, biogen idec and deckers. not good news for a stock that has been down 10% the past three months. >> they missed. they missed on revenue. those are the metrics everybody looks at. paid clicks, they missed on that as well. they can say whatever they want, but it is not a good quarter. they sold it off earlier. if they are did not go to whack the stock on this report, they are not go to whack the stock. the fact it has come back is pretty interesting. >> the metrics across the board were terrible. they are talking about making this switch to mobile. they have been doing it for a long time. i would retweet what guy said. you want to be -- i mean people have come into this short. told down from 600. be very careful being short. >> bouncing back is pretty impressive. they are habitually known for
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missing. they missed five of the last eight quarters. >> why do you own it? >> for longer term. they are selling insurance now. the whole idea of them making investments in the future is a good thing. everybody said they are truly a one-trick pony. they own search on mobile. i get it. the numbers were not great. unlimited compcompetition. >> spending is fine if you see the results in the numbers. right now it does not look like the results are in the numbers. $6.8 billion operating expense. that is going up. what are we seeing on all of the other metrics, misses. >> one word, facebook. facebook is taking share. google should be worried about facebook. when you think about this, there
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is a massive transition going on that the stock under performed. it is down 10% versus the s&p up about 14% in that same time period. the buy side. investors don't believe the consensus for 2015 that earnings will grow 16% and sales will grow 18%. that is ridiculous for one of the largest market cap companies in the world. it is too cheap. the sell side is probably too high. you have seen this transformation of investors going away from the stock. >> i get you like it came back in the after hours session. it also traded terribly in today's session. google was essentially flat going into the numbers. >> i am not giving you the impression to buy with both hands. people are positioned short coming into it. people don't expect the earnings will than great. you have had a lot of people
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come into this short. you had a lot of people staying away from it as well. at the least you might get a pop. i don't think you buy this thing and close your eyes. >> going back to that 490 level, it was up 8% before it turned around. yes, it has been trading really not convincingly to the down side. it is not participating. but that the point i think you use that 490 at your ultimate stop to the down side. aaron, thanks for phoning in. appreciate. good to see you. you have an outperform rating on this stock. what will be the catalyst for this one? i feel investors have been waiting for this stock to turn around and at least perform in line with the market. >> i think the leverage story. revenue growth was solid. google's site revenue improved
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18% over the year. looking at the bottom line and even exclude the one-time cost they talked about, up 13%. slightly below our estimate. i think at this point google just has to hilt the numbers and show leverage on the bottom line and i think the stock will work from here. >> aaron, google gets called a one-trick pony all the time. facebook are doing a lot of things and spending money. i think geelg has a few problems going forward. i think they have a real time search problem. they lack a mobile messaging strategy. i think that there is one way they can fix that. twitter, buy it and integrate it into the great things they are doing in search across desk top and mobile. if they paid $40 billion in
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stock and cash the stock would rally. >> i think google does have head winds on the display side. youtube we think is growing well. outside of youtube i think they are losing some share to facebook. it could make sense from that perspective. it could make sense strategically for google. >> say you have a $620 price target, 20 to 21 times next years' earnings. that sounds reasonable. but recognize the benefit of about $150 through an fx risk management program. sounds like they were prop trade to me. that is not an insignificant number. >> but it is not new. they had these hedges in place for years now. it is nothing new we have seen from google. >> aaron, we will leave it there. thanks for your analysis.
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how are you feeling as a google shareholder at this point? all they had to do is hit the numbers. easier said than done. >> it is easier said than done. the next question, remember when we had that inflection point in apple where it could be a value trap. you look at it where it grows 15% a year. you said x cash. that is where it lulls value investors into name. >> so there is support there, you are saying. >> i think there is definite support. >> from growth investors to the value investors. apple took it on the chin for quite some time. i think this one can have the same event. you can see a flush. dan has been talking about $50 lower than this. you can see that true flush where you start to test the hands of people that hold it. >> is it a struggle whether -- i am serious.
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i am sure there are plenty of other people out there that will hold it because the metrics and value looks good. >> it was the headlines that possibly they are buying twitter. with that space x state they took in to increase their search and wifi. it was ballooned. now the low flying satellites. >> why not just buy twitter. >> i own google, twitter and facebook. for me it is not a huge position. my biggest position is twitter. that is where i am suffering the most. i would like doing toll take twitter. i think that would be the best. >> i saw the headline hit the tape. they have nothing to announce on the capital return front. they have $60 billion in net cash. that is something to get investors excited about. say they started to pay a small dividend. but maybe that would signal the end of growth. but in this day and age where
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people are looking for a yield and support that might make sense. >> to that point in. today's session what spearheaded the turn around in technology, ibm and microsoft. ibm could be a turnaround play. especially if the ceo is replaced. >> microsoft went a lot lower than i thought it would go. ibm is still a disaster. we can talk about that later it. has been shoot first, ask questions later. they tried to do it early in google. unsuccessful. at seven times earnings, market is giving them the benefit of the doubt. >> well, i think when you start talking about large cap tech in general you have to be concerned about the revenue trends here. everybody is piled into large cap tech because they are good value. some have dividends like a microsoft. if your revenues are falling, you get people pulling out of
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the names and there is not much of a catalyst. i am a little concerned about this earnings season and actually going forward. >> we have a news report on spotified. >> that is right. sources tell me they are working with goldman sack in the early stages of doing a private raise of about $500 million. my sources tell me the valuation here would be north of $7 billion, perhaps even as high as $8 billion. the company is trading in the range of $6 billion in the secondary markets. this would be a way for the document stay private longer, melissa, as it continues to grow. >> who says amazon can't make money. the stock is popping after hours. is it too threatt buy this stock? that is next. and visa on the move after reporting a four for one stock split. all of the after hours action
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michael, what do you look for in the conference call? >> you know, i think the point here is that they have shown that they can control spending. that has always been the story. nobody questioned that they will grow the top line and see increasing margin. everybody wondered what are they go to spend money on next. they deliver. they spent about $250 million less than i modeled. that is all of the upside. they did not guide to a big number. but they have shown they can control spending and they have an inclination to do so when the share price is down. i think the stock will work for a bit until they do something we don't like. >> when you look at amazon web services, that number could be explosive. i don't want to say in the near future but in the future at some point where it takes over its retail business. sounds like a pipedream to me. do you see that as the catalyst going forward? >> that is the leverage story.
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they understand retail and leverage on their spending. nobody gets what the critical mass of spending on amazon web services is. we know there will be a point where they don't need to build any more servers. i don't think it is this year but it could be this decade and it could be 2017. when you see that happens, earnings will go up hockey stick. >> is aws that much of an asset? i would think at the point where they can scale that business, it will be more of a commodity than it is today. there is much more competition and they are cutting prices. >> yeah. you are right. it is going to be a commodity business and it will squeeze out the little guys. the question is just will amazon get 30% of the cloud services for the planet and be able to deliver those even at a tenth of a cent per gigabyte of storage.
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the big guy wins and they don't have to make that much for each search. >> we saw amazon do what wall street has been wanting them for do for a while, earn money. what gives you confidence they will continue to do this or is this a one-time thing? >> great. they have products coming. those are expensive. they triggered losses in the middle part of last year. this year the big rumor is that we will see stand alone ad supported free streaming service. that will be positive bringing revenues in and not cost them money. i think the lack of a negative
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cast lift is what people are hanging on to. i might be inclined to upgrade if they don't do something silly later in the year. >> upgrade could be in store later. >> if they deliver leverage and don't spend it stupidly, yes. >> okay michael. good to see you. >> what did you make of amazon's quarter? 21% down prior to today. >> they can pull different levers. they did exactly that. don't be confused. looking at first quarter guidance, it was miserable. everybody is looking past that. but technically it held exactly where it needed to. the past couple of weeks it did not push down to 280 like it did in the past. one of our things is that they are go to pull the levers necessary. you might want to check it out. they will pull the levers necessary to get it to pull at
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340. 350 now. if it does hold and close above 350 tomorrow it is interesting once again. i am in the take profits camp. i love this game. >> google or amazon? >> definitely google at 510 over amazon at 350. they just delivered $29 billion in sales in that quarter and that operating profit was $660 million resulting in a 45 cent earnings number. it is scattering how much they earned. don't chase it here at 350. >> manicwok. >> we both said it correctly. yes. we all said it correctly. i always want to make sure it. posted weaker than expected earnings but it is moving higher on news it will separate into two publicly traded companies
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with the spin off of their food services business. they make ice machines among other things. carl icahn owns nearly 8% of the stock. he has been pushing for a split of the crane business, $2.3 billion. those shares trading higher because of that bit of news. >> this has been a target of activist investors and a target of karen, who made the right call that these needed to be split. >> nailed it. >> let me point out for dominic. you always pronounced it correctly. >> that is true. >> he is the one that screwed it up on the closing bell. he knows i am right. >> we have a good amount of viewer there is in wisconsin. they let me know. i think the entire state let me know that i mispronounced the
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name of manitowoc before. i have been practicing for the last quarter. >> i like how he covered it up. unless carl pointed it out over the last couple of weeks, he is sucking a little wind on this. karen has advocated it. there is probably a significant short. but you look at the quarter, still pretty much a disaster. >> it is not just amazon and google. we breakdown the earnings playbook. and we are awaiting the pricing for the shake shack ipo ahead of their big debut tomorrow. we will bring you the latest details the second they are in. more "fast money"straight ahead. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,
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take a look at shares of google in the after hour session. look that the dip. that was about a 4% move to the down side. monumental turnaround after it reported disappointing revenue growth. it is now up 2%. we are on the conference call and will bring you the latest soon as we have it. a drop for royal caribbean down 6%. >> poor booking numbers. strong dollar got in their way. oil prices came down. but it still wasn't a tailwind for them. i would be questioning rco going ahead. >> a great day. they both reported better earnings but their margins were soft. margins are soft. more incentives. i would take my profits. >> facebook.
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>> better than expected earnings and sales. they are taking share from google. stock has been in a massive pace for six months and looks like it will make new highs. >> kate spade. the cross body bags. >> my god. talking about 2014. talking about initiatives. but this stock at 48 times four earnings is not cheap. you are bouncing off a completely oversold condition. i think it is going down from here. i think you stay away from kate spade. >> taylor swift is cozying up to the u.s. good. the phrases are party like it is 1989. this sick beat. because we never go out of
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style. can show you incredible things. and nice to meet you. where you been? >> i could show you incredible things. >> says it all the time. the trademarks are being used for merchandise, removable tattoos and nonmedicated toilet trees. >> we are working on a "fast money"song to the shake it off. >> yeah. >> i love that. >> can't wait. all right. we have a ton of earnings out. time for earnings playbook. visa announcing a four for one stock split giving it a smaller impact on the dow. it will go from 9 fors about 2.5%. >> this was somewhat surprising. their spending numbers were up grampt i don't think the split is as excited as the market is getting excited about it.
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but the data going forward is looking good. i think visa is a buy, believe it or not. >> biogen pops on earnings. >> all this does is show you the strength of biotech here. i am not saying to race out and buy biogen. but i thought the quarter was good. hasn't traded that way. but i think the space overall is still in play and i continuing goes higher from here. >> and broadcom with a beat on the top and bottom line. >> this is a stock that is up 40% or so in the last year. it looks really cheap 12% expected eps growth in 2015. but there is no sales growth. i suspect they have a ton of cash, a lot of it in buybacks to orchestrate that earnings beat. i would stay away. >> can we quickly touch on
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qualcomm today. a clear flush to the downside. sliced right through the 52-week low like knife through butter. >> i don't remember the day exactly but it traded down to 68 on huge volume and i thought it held 70 enough times to be taken to the next level again. dead wrong. to me that is an amazing move to the downside on a great day today. >> make it a buy? >> no. you can't play that game. now i have to see what happens here. >> they have 30% of their market cap, $31 billion with no debt. i think it should be bought or merged with intel and to me you have a pc and mobile behomoth. this thing should happen or activists get involved. >> back to the earnings playbook. deckers getting hit.
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>> in the summer is the time to buy the stock. their ugg pure line was supposed to increase their margins. it has been under pressure. i would wait on this. this needs a lot of room to breathe. we had the cold weather come on later. it was actually pretty warm until the last couple of storms. i think that will screw up the retailers buying their product going forward. >> still ahead alibabba, is the babba magic gone? and both amazon and google conference calls are underway. we get you to the latest headlines right after this break. more "fast money"straight ahead.
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still ahead on "fast money," google turning around in the past hour. the stock is now higher after being down 4%. find out what was said on the call to turn things around. amazon popping on their earnings report. and now the mcdonald's ceo, don thompson is out, who else could be on the chopping block? the pricing of shake shack is out. >> right now we have $21 per share.
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$21 per share is where shake shack will price their ipo according to a report from dow jones. you may recall that it was just the other day $17 to $19 per share and that was raised from $14 to $16. looks like 5 million shares on offer. that for shake shack according to dow jones. >> strong demand for this one. we should note that tomorrow squawk will have the ceo, danny meyer. that should be a good interview. in the meantime what do we make of the issue? what do you make of the stock? >> clearly strong demand. this is what is going on in the space. i am generally not a buyer of ipo on the first day. i let them trade for 90 days until you can see what people are thinking about this.
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i would rather be in mcdonald's than shake shack tomorrow morning. >> we have burgers and fries and shakes and they smell incredible. but that is not the reason why you would buy the stock. >> yeah it. does not look like it is a tremendous deal. this deal could pop pretty convincingly. i don't know if we are talking about the food as a investibility of it, no. i wouldn't be there. i know where i want to be. i think we are going towards more organic. the only gains i have held in the market are my weight. for me, i would rather be in healthier spaces. dominos is not your healthy meal. but i think the stock is. >> this thing will have on the opening tomorrow a $750 valuation. they have 63 stores. they are going global. >> they want to expand rapidly.
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>> he is kind of a genius this. is why you would go to the public market to grow. if they get right the way they have done on a micro scale on a macro scale, it could be a big hit in five years. >> this is going to be a great story. they will have a tremendous growth story. valuations are crazy. but we have seen that before. we said it for a while. where do you want me to go? jack-in-the-box. it is not even funny. >> all right. let's check on google earnings call. josh. >> well melissa, google's cfo quick to point out that there were special issues in this
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quarter tharkts quarter was in his words noisy. he talked about the strengthening dollar, he talked about operating expenses, compensation, real estate write downs, capital expenditures, $3.6 billion. putting money to work in facilities and data center and head count up by 2,000. analysts were quick to ask about that stock price which has been under pressure. they asked what were google executives thinking about capital return. >> it matters to our board and it matters to all of us. we are all shareholders in this company. we do review the issue on a regular basis. we review it responsibly with the audit committee and the board. i just have nothing to announce today. >> he had nothing to announce but analysts kept going after him about that capital return program, google not willing to
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budge. cost per click. cfo saying it continues to be impacted by geography and mobile device. >> thanks for that update. according to what josh is reporting, does not sound like there is a reason the stock would have staged such a turnaround. >> the market is giving them a total pass and pushed down levels and was probably in oversold condition. i think the stock performance tells you it wants to continue to move higher. good enough. >> right. >> if you want to get back to the other one. he is the first ceo. >> the other one. >> google. >> okay. >> the first management team that said they are concerned with stock price. we have heard ceo and management teams, one after one telling us they are not concerned with stock price. i think that say healthy change.
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>> you mentioned the nasdaq 100, 17% of that is google and apple. so apple is killing it. if google rallies, you could have the qqq catching steam here. >> amazon shares popping on earnings. julia. >> yeah. that is right. amazon talking about how its $1.3 billion investment in prime instant video is paying off. he did not reveal the number of prime subscribers but highlighted a 53% increase despite a price increase. he says prime members do purchase a lot more than non-prime members and prime members get things faster than non-prime members saying that helps a lot. >> we remain heads down focussed on driving a better customer experience through price, selection and convenience. we believe putting customers first is the only reliable way
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to create lasting value for our shareholders. >> the earnings call said the company will break out amazon web services starting this quarter saying right now the quarter has over 1 million aws active customers. now one interesting comment that they just made talking about 2015, the company is investing heavily in improving productivity and is more focused on improving productivity than in prior quarters. that is interesting when you look at amazon's profitability. >> thank you for. that where do you go on amazon at this point now you heard all of that, b.k. >> the stories changed with amazon. prior to this i thought it it was a broken story. now people will give them a pass until they do something silly. the other thing i would mention about amazon and google, they are both worried about the fx
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headwinds. they lost almost $1 billion on fx trades. stunning nobody saw this. almost like they don't watch "fast money." >> it will be interesting when they break out aws in the first quarter so you can get a handle on what that is valued. >> i am almost nervous about it from a bullish standpoint. if you comb through these numbers, it could be a little defeatism for them. but i think that there is where their real growth is going forward. you never thought of them as a cloud player. now they are one of the biggest. >> i have to push back. the point is that this is going to be the ultimate commodity business. if they have 30% of the global cloud storage business at a fraction of the gigabyte, this is not what you buy a gross stock for. >> alibabba missed expectations
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this morning. yahoo also fell 6% on this news. take a listen. >> from our perspective of operations, nothing has changed. today yahoo is a 15% shareholder in us. after the spin off we will have another corporation that is also a 15% shareholder in us. >> somebody that says the street is getting the report all wrong. marty pyykkonen joins us. what are we missing on this sflpt. >> the chinese e-commerce stock market still early. people might be forgetting that. that is obviously a positive. they are still strong numbers that they put up.
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ebay would love to report those kind of numbers. i would say on the other hand we have picked up things recently where because the market is so early in china, you have other things that are getting some of the consumer traffic. you know alibabba may be facing a little of that. it is still early there. they are the big gorilla like ebay and amazon is to an extent. but it is still very early. that might be one thing that is a challenge for them right now. >> is there any concern about the chinese government allegations that it failed to crackdown on fake goods? >> you know, i think it is hard to tell here. we certainly had that concern over the years. kind of old news now with ebay in particular in terms of piracy and counterfeit goods. they have come in to do a good policing job on that. i think alibabba has the
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infrastructure to figure that out and fix the problem. so i would say most likely it won't be a long-term problem. but it is one of the things that canlinger and fester like a bad wound for the next few quarters. i don't think it will go away really quickly. >> first of all, that sounds awful. what does that mean for the stock price? >> you know, we don't have an official rating at the moment. we are transitioning as a furthermore. but i think generally speaking i would be neutral on it here. i think the other part with alibabba, you only have two public quarters. we have been talking about it on the segment. they are all mature dealing on the street. i don't think we really know yet. as a company, i think they have to manage expectations better than they have done so far. i would stay on the sidelines until we get better clarity on that, better clarity on the
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chinese government and make sure there are no other ripples here. the chinese stock market so new and much different than our market. >> today's price action in yahoo, all it tells me is as alibabba goes yahoo goes. have you a $50 price target. but is yahoo now a proxy way to trade alibabba? >> basically it is. we cover liberty media out here. yahoo is not officially a tracker but it is track to what alibabba is doing. coupled with that fact and the reason i am neutral on yahoo is that the core business is stagnant. yahoo say its is stable, i say they are stagnant. a different s-word. i think as it goes on the alibabba price, yahoo will track that. it is nice to have a spin but if alibabba is down 20% by the end
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of the year that is $8 billion off yahoo and you negate the tax advantage. >> martin, going to leave it there. thank you, martin. has the bloom come off the rose for alibabba? >> you absolutely buy it. if you think the chinese government will allow the largest ipo have problems you are out of your mind. >> it is over here. the company is listed over here. >> they are not go to want to go down. >> in march -- march 18 there are 420 million shares coming off. they came here to sell all of these muppets. their stock is a total joke. >> political move. >> the thing fill in the gap between here and the high 90s. >> i will buy it from you. >> i am go to get in trouble for
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saying this. he mentioned fester. like uncle fester. i saw a picture of josh brown. can you imagine. >> would you be a buyer of dan's alibaba? >> i find myself more in the dan camp. >> boom! another drink. >> although i understand what he is saying. >> yahoo. why hold it that the point? >> you are hoping that b.k. is right on alibaba. >> you are hoping. >> sounds so dumb when you say it like that. i still have a profit in yahoo. i am in the mid30s. >> why are you holding it now? >> i think it can run to that $50 mark if they are talking about the last quarter, fourth quarter of 2015. i think guys will be game in this and that they want to own alibaba. if they don't turn around i will be done with my yahoos.
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officially on his way out sending shares higher. take a listen. >> for me it is mcdonald's and don thompson. when you look at what is going on in that space, mcdonald's are getting their butt kicked. they came out with a couple of products that haven't worked. there are all kinds of new start ups that have taken marketshare from them. mcdonalds is the one for me. >> now thompson is out over at mcdonald's. >> i will go to at&t and randall stephenson. i know it sounds funny but stick with bk on this one. since 2009 they have gone up 17%. the stock market has gone up 131%. they pay a huge dividend in an environment where everyone wants a dividend. if that wasn't enough they also sell the biggest product of all-time, the apple iphone.
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if you can't make your company work and you can't make more than 17% since 2009, you are doing something wrong. that's all. >> interesting. dan, what do you say? >> he nailed that mcdonald's thing. >> but he is wrong on at&t? >> well, yeah. at&t is a utility. >> it is not a utility. >> it is go to operate with you as the ceo with. a 5.7% dividend yield it is probably a decent buying proxy to own right here. >> that is my point. it is a buy proxy that hasn't gone up. gone up 17% with a great product to sell. they can't sell something else? >> what are you talking about? >> you guys argue all night. guys. >> since 2015, i understand some
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of the businesses they are in. most of the businesses have been struggling and for reasons probably out of his control. but they have zero clarity. it is apparent by their last quarter and the guidance they gave. it is shocking that nobody talks about the lack of clarity they have. if you are the ceo of a company, you have to have a better handle on things than that. they are trading on a four-year low. he has answering and explain to do. >> i am go to go ibm. ibm, this was my pick. this is going in the same theme that dan just said. does not matter who runs it. i don't think anyone can run this thing into profitability. they can't get their fast
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enough. hardware is always down. double digits in the recent past. cloud computing, not enough to move the needle the right direction. ibm is a sell. but new leadership gets a bounce out of the name. >> we will tell you which stock traders are betting against ahead of an earnings report next week. more "fast money"straight ahead. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review. so this is a great opportunity for an upgrade. sound good? great. because you're not you, you're a whole airline...
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to interact in ways they never thought possible. this cloud turns data into excitement. this is the microsoft cloud. can the new boss deliver better results? facebook. and a biotech up. final trading time. steve. >> google, look at how it trades tomorrow. i am long. i am staying long. >> yum, sets up as a great short. >> you know we started the show talking about google and we are go to end talking about the twitter. i think you buy that. i would rather than than google. >> shake shack. >> you did haven't a single bite.
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>> i have a tough constitution. pandora. >> constitution like an orchid. let's clarify. see you tomorrow. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." welcome, if people want to make money i'm just trying to help you. put it all in perspective, why don't you call me or of course tweet me @jimcramer. good, we have a rally. a terrific sn
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