and also a top analyst, two about picks, breakout stocks in 2015. >> intercept, that is hardly even a big move for them. >> exactly. >> all right. straight over to you guys. >> "fast money"starts right now. overlooking new york city's times square. late day rally in oil and selloff in stocks. apple, googles and facebook earnings behind us. it is twitter's time to be front and center. biotech is rallying. we have an analyst with two under the radar picks. oil soaring 8% after baker hughes released the latest rig count data showing the number of rigs fell by 94 this week this. is one of the steepest, fastest

declines we have seen for oil. >> it is the biggest move on a weekly basis since 1987. another time oil went through another contribution in price. if you listen to all of the guys, they tell us they think the end of the first quarter is where you see the bottom because a lot of guys are hedged through that and will produce to the end of that. the market always leads the underlying fundamentals. if you look at a six-month chart from the summer, we are bottoming here. in fact we have done it over the last three to four weeks. it is not just a pop today giving me confidence. if you look at the fact that the cash cost of $65, it is an interesting time. >> in crude oil it was. i think the rig count is part of it. there were rumors out of iraq. i think that is part of it. if you look at where it closed and when it didn't, a lot of these commodity funds start with

an allocation of say $100 million. they have to be back up to that $100 million notional value. i think you saw guys and gals getting back up to that value. if you look in the after market, crude was down a buck. >> say that is the case. we have the rig count data and chevron, rds, conco saying that they are cutting spending. cutting capex. >> it is a good sign for the price of oil. the one thing i would say is that with what these guys are saying, you have positioning where everybody is short oil. anything can spark that rally. like lighting a match in the dynamite factory. the only thing i would say, ask everybody this question, if the only thing holding the economy was the savings from lower gas prices and it is being funneled

into amazon, what happens when oil goes up? do we lose all of the support from the market? >> you probably lose whatever went occupy the back of it. you lose airlines. probably lose any type of incremental autos. people were buying the bigger trucks. next week when we get supply data, you will see that glut. they talked about it. end of month. rig count was huge. the short squeeze. and you can't underestimate the last day of the month for this trade. >> you made a good point. does that mean that it is time to get into the oil equity side of things or is it too late? >> i think the best trade is to get long oil. >> long oil. >> this is a play. i think we will be at 65 to 70 by the second half of the year. you have 30% or 40% upside.

if you look at the integrated names announced, conoco seems to have already shown they will protect the balance sheet. they are go to protect the and she free cash flow back to the investors. bp, stay very far away from this company. they have the gulf spill and a lot of issues in russia. they are not all created equal. >> the truth is that in oil and crude, you see the level of support is $42. i hear what he is saying. if we break that level and the dollar continues to rally, that number could go lower. refiners seem the safest spot to be viable. everybody is thinking they are quasi-safety, they are not. >> vahero saying margins were boosted and refining was actually the bright spot. >> also gdp.

even with the lower crude and gas, the economy still seems to be stalling out globally. we keep coming back to this. german 30-year bonds, less than 1%. u.s. ten-year. it is a huge move. >> yes. let's move on to twitter. reporting earnings next thursday. twitter co-founder dak dorsey went on his tweet storm tweeting rightly pointed out there isn't a single person who has been thinking longer about twitter than dick costolo. he is the creator of our revenue engine and our coo who assembled the team. time to take a position ahead of this report. let's go around the horn, starting with you. >> i am still on twitter. i think they only have to do one thing right.

it is fair to say that dick costolo is there to stay. whether it is getting their advertising dollars up or teaching businesses how to use it better. twitter has held up in this market. it is making higher lows, which is an excellent sign in a market down 250 on the dow today. >> i end up at the same place. a heavily out of favor stock and internet brand with an inflated sentiment that is nowhere it. does not take much to move this thing. i agree with brian. i think you have to give these guys a couple more quarters. i would not be on the short side of this name. it is exactly the same thing that happened with facebook. >> bob peck has a couple of reports out where he talks about them partnering up with monthly active users. partner up with apps from espn

and others and automatically get to you log in and to be engaged. i am still on the namement. >> look at the shake shack debut. despite the broader market sell-off, shares taking off in their first day of trading on the new york stock change. >> what we have learn for years and years in the restaurant sentence that consumers want pleasure. they want to feel good and taste them. they don't want to deny themselves pleasure. when they go for a burger or steak they want to know it was carefully sourced and carefully made. >> sounds like the promo for one of your docs you did. >> listen, the stock more than doubled today. no way you can chase it. doesn't mean a year from now we won't be talking about shake shack at $60.

>> there is so much incredible sentiment out. to not say it is a bad stock. >> i thought you liked the meat trade. >> meat space. i think this is a great concept. i think danny meyer is fantastic. i want to keep my reservations at his other restaurants. but this trade up 100% in one day. >> there have been so many restaurant related ipo's that have done well on the first day of trading. >> you can ask yourself what is the multiple in this sector? it is 157b9 to 20. it is 40 times net year. i don't think that is sustainable. >> when you are doing comparisons, it is not shack versus wendys. >> i think people see shack as the changing of the guard. mcdonald's changed their ceo.

everybody feels that company is broken and shack could be taking the space here. relative value is how i go all day long. >> this was a 5 million share offering. this seems to be extreme squeezing to the upside. we talked about this for years with ipos getting the price right it. seems to me short sided. i would be careful in the next couple of days and weeks. >> this is what they are handing out on the floor. >> free burgers. i could have had more. >> they give it to you so when your srd ready it buzzes and you know your srd ready. >> would you rather. >> what game. shake shack. >> shack. >> jack or shack. i like that. what do they call that?

jack. >> all right. rough january for the s&p but not biotech. index is up more than 7 n%.

the s&p might be having a rough start to the year but the s&p's biotech epf is surging. intercept pharma surging on news it received fda break through. great to have you with us. is intercept still a buy? what is the next catalyst in the pipeline? >> it is absolute buy given the progress i think they will make the rest of the year. they have been given break through status by the fda where they say we think your data is compelling and you need to do a phase 3 trial and take it to the finish line.

we will see a phase 3 start in the nash program and a filing for their lead program in another liver disease that has the potential to be approved by the fda by the end of the year or 2016. >> i think investors may have been scarred by intercept in the past with the crazy down 70% days. are those days behind it or is that level of volatility still there? >> there is always volatility in smallcap, midcap biotech. what drove the incredible volatility of intercept is the fact that the data as it was released last january was not in their control. they had a top line data release. the government let them bleed out the data. some of it was awesome. other looked scary. they were not in control. trials going forward are entirely in their control and the data will come out in a more

controlled fashion. but it is still biotech. >> now to the two breakthrough stocks. stocks you identified as potentially having a breakthrough year. that is amazing. the first one, acadia, already up 30% over the last 12 months. it seems to be the parkinsons' psychosis treatment. >> we are talking about a drug with a large, billion plus addressable market. clear unmet need, and potential approval by the end of the year and it has breakthrough status for parkinson's disease psychosis. just by virtue of the market size. >> let's go on to raptor. that had a troubling 12 months. the catalyst could be around the corner with the fourth quarter earnings release. >> it is right after the earnings release.

overall i think that there is an off the radar data catalyst coming for that dmump may. they have a program in pediatric nash, a subsection of the intercept indication. that data, phase 2 data could come in may of this year. raptor usually reports at the end of february. part of the reason the stock has been weak is that q4 has been weak for pediatric orphan indications. you might want to watch the quarter but do not forget the may data catalyst. >> rito, thanks so much for coming by. we appreciate it. >> we know where to go. acadia, specifically. if they are right about this parkinsons, your price target of 46, you have to double that if they get right. as you know a lost these names

become binary. not that it is but it is pretty close to that. if you are in the mood for high risk and high reward, this is a very interesting stock. >> one of the things i would like to say is that in a difficult market be worried about biotech. talk about gill iad. it is a stock really proven to have resilient around that 95 level. you are not chasing the moon. it is a marketcap and cash burn that you can get behind. >> now we turn b.k. who is looking at yields in germany and here in the u.s. >> here is what is interesting. i think this will be driving most of the capital flows around the world for this year this. is u.s. yields in blue and german yields in orange over the

last year. german yields are down almost 75% from a year ago. u.s. yields, they are down but still only down 25 to 30%. what is happening is that you are getting a lot of capital flowing into the u.s. 30-year bonds. germany is at 1% for a 30-year bond. u.s. 2%, double the yield you get in the u.s. all of the international money will come flowing into the u.s. doesn't look like it is going to the stock market, but it is going to the bond market. i would argue if the u.s. economy does well that gives even more bond yields. where are they go to park their dollars? in u.s. yields. back to the well again. tlt is your trade on this. that will move the most when have you bond yield moving. >> there is an artificial pressure in the market on u.s.

yields. therefore is this trade -- bill groce said yesterday tlt trade is safe for the next six to 12 months. >> he is talking about the 30-year spread. the 10-year spread is 175. it traded in that range for 20 years. we are in the wide end of that range on relative value and there is no question that europe is pulling the u.s. down. >> do you test modern era lows. >> yes. yes. yes. yes. rates are going a lot lower than people think. we have been saying that for a long time me. >> super bowl sunday is fast approaching. we will tell you some of the craziest ways people are trying to make money off of the game.

time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. wynn resorts. >> pass. i think it is too early in the casino cycle. i don't think they bottomed yet. >> keurig green mountain. >> they report on the fifth. hope they miss and it trades down to 110. >> drop for disney, down 2%. >> name i am long. first quarter on the third. these are guys hitting on all cylinders. watch $90 to hold the stock. >> shiny rocks were hot today.

newmont mining, i still think it goes higher. >> super bowl sunday. the big game is two days away. fans are making some ridiculous bets. live now with dave briggs from phoenix, arizona. >> $115 million expected to be wagered on super bowl xlix. patriots, one-point favorite and 73% of the action going on new england. the fun starts with the prop bets. the ridiculous, more than 300 things you can bet on. will marshawn lynch be fined ahead of the big game. odds say that yes, he will. what style and color hoodie will bill belichick wear? how many times will tom brady's smoking hot super model wife, gisele, be shown. one and a half. but it is three on how many times deflate-gate will be

mentioned throughout the broadcast. you may not have heard the end of that. towards the end of the game, what about the color of gatorade bath that will soak the head coach. orange is the favorite there. and after the game, who is headed to disneyland. tom brady favored to be the mvp followed by russell wilson and marshawn lynch. we talked to arian foster. super bowl winning quarterback, danny white and lavar arrington. >> cut offs or full sleeves? >> cut-off. it is inside and a dome. >> cut-off or full sleeves? >> full sleeves. >> what color gatorade will it be? >> green. >> green is the heavy underdog. >> the gatorade shower at the end of the game will be red. >> red.

what color will that gatorade be? >> that is a crapshoot. orange is the most delicious of the flavors. so i feel they are going run lower on that one. i will go with blue because it is not as tasty. >> now you have some advice from the pros. as we throw it back to you, you can bet on what katy perry will wear first at halftime. favorite is the skirt. it could be a dress or pants is the underdog. hillary clinton pants suit. >> i go for cut-offs. not sure where that lands. thanks, dave briggs. you can catch all of the super bowl action this sunday on nbc. coverage beginning at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. time now for the final trade. >> conocophilips, i think it is

time. >> disney. the calendar end content. >> orange is the most delicious. >> we will see you back here on monday at 5:00 for more "fast." know that chasing performance can mean lower returns and fewer choices in retirement. know that proper allocation could help increase returns so you can enjoy that second home sooner. know the right financial planning can help you save for college and retirement. know where you stand with pnc total insight. a new investing and banking experience with personalized guidance and online tools. visit a branch, call or go online today. that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything.

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we are live at the nasdaq on a brutal friday for stocks. these guys are ready to give you their best news. first, here is what is coming up. investors are starting to freak out about the market. we will tell you why that could be your flashing sign to buy. plus, is green mountain about to get roasted? >> naught coffee down. >> a shocking chart spells big trouble for the coffee maker. we have a way for you to cash in. and alibaba shares got crushed this week and some traders say it will be worse for the chinese internet giant. options action.