just my opinion. you know, it's just an insane amount of money. >> it's staggering. they lead a different life. >> yes, they do. but not necessarily a better one. >> no, absolutely not. >> all right, folks. that is "power lunch." >> very silent during that. don't get me started. that's all for "power lunch." >> street signs starts thousand. it seems like a great day to play a little boston. investors are looking for a little peace of mind because stocks can't decide which way to go. no super bowl hangover here. lots to do, including why these gas prices may not loost for long. whether oil has finally hit a bottom, and the one stock sector getting a big boost from washington d.c. today, mandy. another big swing for stocks. >> yeah. you know, the first trading day of february really has been as volatile as january in its entirety. the dow was up. it was down. as much as $127 points.

up triple digits. away we call a double-triple now, and now we're down about 57 points. while we've closed out january, we've closed the worst month for the dow for treasuries, brian. it was the strongest month in over six years with a total return of 2.88%. 30-year bond here, remember, hitting put reply record lows during last month. take a look at the ten-year right now. currently yielding 1.657%. meanwhile, gasoline prices may have hit bottom. but not because of the price of oil. unionized workers at nine of america's refinery walking off the job. they want a new contract. morgan brennan here with us with more on those strikes. morgan.

negotiations are not coming to fruition right now. we have seen the strike start to take place. >> in temz of what it means for you and me as we pull up to the pump for our cars, to what sdee degree is this supportive for gasoline prices? some of the refineries are saying, look, we've got the capability to be able to bring in replacement workers and do business as usual. >> are you already seeing statements come out. tesoro put one out. marathon said they have contingency plans in place and they continue to have nonunion workers operate skeleton staffs in place. the last time they saw something in 1980 it didn't affect gasoline supplies. it didn't affect gasoline prices. they don't expect that to happen this time. it was about 8%.

next guest saw that move on friday, though, and called a bottom in oil. jeff of raymond james joins us now. you dare call a bottom, jeff? >> well, i was on joe's show last monday, and our energy team, which i think is as good as it gets, was looking for a bottom in the $40 to $45 dollar area. they've had a negative call on oil for the past few years. >> you put a low on crude oil prices, and we'll have to see in f if that holes. au auto. >> danbury, new field

exploration. marathon. do you take heart in how the oil-related stocks have done? >> i do. they have been absolutely crushed. especially the ones that were levered 2-1. they just took those out and shot them. i mean, you've got little stocks down from $40 a dozen months ago to $2. if crude oil is bottomed, you will see dramatic moves on the up side in some of the compressed stocks. >> is there any of those particular stocks that you think would be a good investment? even if you might have missed the absolute bottom and they bounced a little? do they have a great deal of upside that you would make? >> i think that individual investors likely best served by buying one of the energy sent rick exchange traded funds. >> the oah. the osx. i'm going to throw out acronyms until you started nodding. >> xle. >> that one that's very broad, jeff. you think the broad energy sector is where you immediate to be? don't try to get focused. don't try to overthink this thing. buy them all? >> i think that if we made a low

in crude oil prices, you're going to do just fine in either an energy centric mutual fund or -- i would point to you marshall at kenz, the head of our energy sunday mental analyst team. >> thank you very much for joining us as always. >> three may be the magic number, but $3.9 trillion is the focus of street signs today. >> take out today's mystery chart. 3.5%. at first hint, it's not a stock. more clues and the answer when "street signs" returns. take a deeeeep breath in... and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days.

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they treated me so well, and it was just such a quick, easy experience. get your car, and get back to the life you love. welcome to the future of car-buying. >> the white house releasing its proposed budget for 2016. the price tag? a whopper. greet least get the details. >> that whopper is $4 trillion. that's what the president is asking for today in his federal budget. the president is including new proposals on tacks and new things on spending. on taxes he is asking for a new 14% one-time only tax on corporate earnings that are held overseas. that would be the teaser rate. after that the tax rate on the overseas earnings would go up to 19% annual year by year and spending the president is also asking for tla alreadies 478 billion infrastructure package. that's designed to build roads and bridges and all the things that the president says america needs to keep competitive. the president also said he

didn't expect republicans to necessarily go along with everything he is proposing. take a listen. >> i know there are republicans who disagree with my approach, and i have said this before. if they have other ideas for how we can keep america safe, grow our economy while helping middle class families seek and feel some sense of economic security, i welcome their ideas. but their numbers have to add up. >> the president's prediction was correct. republicans said they don't think this budget is going anywhere. it's doa upon republican-controlled capitol hill, they said. speaker of the house john boehner said that this was a groundhog day proposal. more of the same from the president in terms of taxes and spending. what republicans have seen before from this president.

jo thank you very much. >> let's get more reaction to the proposed budget. especially the part about that plan for the one-time tax on overseas corporate profits. joining me now contributor jared bernstein and jimmy. brilliant politics, right, where you say i'm going to tax corporate profits, which are trillions overseas, and i'm going to give it back to the infrastructure and the middle class. what do you see as the main stumbling block to this politically? >> well, republicans are going to be chafing about the precise percentages that the president is putting out, but, in fact, if you look back at republican tax writer dave camp from the last congress, he had a very similar plan in his tax reform package as well. whenever you are moving from a transition to our current, and i think we would all agree pretty disfictional corporate tax system to a different one, you need a transitional tax to deal

with $2 trillion of earnings that have avoided u.s. taxes, deferred overseas. now, if jimmy and the rest of the crowd doesn't like 14, i think we can talk about a different number. that kind of structure is there in pretty much every type of corporate reform i've seen on the table. >> signed the pledge to groefrl norquist that i would never raise taxes, which i think is idealogical nonsense. if we want to repair a broken tax code, it's going to end up looking something like this, so i don't think there is a good defense other than getting to work, rolling up your sleeves, sitting down, and starting to negotiate. >> all right. jimmy, you probably know what that defense might be, or the one you might put up. >> what is it? >> well, i would say, one, i

think there is the problem of the rate. the rate is too high. the 14%. two, that it's not -- >> what number do you like? >> it's not a repatriation. it's not on companies that have chose tony bring this money back. it's on all accumulated earnings. third, this is a move away from a territorial tax system, where under a territorial tax system you don't tack earnings earned outside your nestic company. that's how most countries do it. i think it's bad tax policy, and let's not forget, by the way, that corporate taxes, at least some of the burden is born by workers. to raise corporate taxes, you are also raising tax on american workers. >> there's a brouhaha a few months ago. the whole thing over inversions. they haven't gone away. if you are a ceo and you are thinking, "mad money", the stuff i'm keeping in ireland is going to be whacked coming back here, unless i'm now suddenly based in ireland? could this increase fleeing of these sort of fake headquarters

to overseas domains? >> listen, you are not going to -- listen, they're going to go -- what this is telling me is we are going to try to go after you. whether you want to bring your money back or not. there is a pool of money out there that we are not going to leave untapped. i have a question for jared. why is he so worried? is he really worried about paying for this? i thought interest rates were so low, the deficit is not a problem. why dent the president say, listen, this is important. we need better infrastructure. we're going to deficit spend it. >> that's an interesting proposition, but, of course, that would mean going forth with a budget proposal. that would say we're not going pay for it. we're going to raise the budget deficit, and politically that's certainly not flying. it's interesting to hear jimmy taking very much a paul kru fwman-esque, and it has some logic. jimmy, one thing. even if you went to a territorial system, which you and lots of other people would like, you have to have a transition tax rate. if you don't like the 14%, throw

out a number. you have to do something about these earnings that are sitting overseas. most multi-national corporations are at least somewhat agreeable to this. they say we would like to repatriate. i think it makes sense to repatriate. clearly, they don't want those trillions sitting there either. >> ain't no way -- we're going to raise the gas tax. >> there's a lot of talk about the gas tax. i don't think republicans are going to go for it. there are some republicans. definitely no problem with it. i think that is just a political no go. >> one thing that gets to a lot of this is at the end of may which isn't that far away the highway trust fund runs out of

money. one of my pricks -- people are saying just as in your introduction, this budget is dead on arrival. i don't think that's quite correct. i think they're going to. i like the gas tax idea. those are at least some good ideas on the table. >> if the beltway shuts down, then they'll do something. if it impacts them, jared and jimmy, if they can't get to river road to the cheesecake factory in bethesda. usually take 95. >> it's been repaved. we're fine. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. well, happening now, the defense department is holding a news conference on the president's proposed budget. let's get to jane welsh who has been monitoring that briefing. what have we learned so far? >> the pentagon is arguing that after a few years of living under a half trillion dollars, it can no longer do so. it's asking for a baseline

budget. that's $36 billion above the sequestration cap. plus it's asking for another $51 billion off that regular budget for winding down. it is continuing to hold this news conference. presenting a budget that not only plans to purchase more new items like f-35s, but to modernize an aging nuclear force, but put more money into space -- >> built up demand on modernization that we haven't been able to get to, and so if anybody says, look, you've been at $496 billion. yes, that's true, but we've been accumulating risk while we do so. >> well, winter is in a proposed budget. if it passes. our lockheed martin with 57 more f-35s. unite technology. boeing with more pa's and cape 46 it's and northrop drummond competing for a new ship. the airplane has set aside over

$2 billion for space for 2016 after zero the last couple of years. the u2 continues to live, but the a-10 dies, and they're proposing closing for bases. the last two will be tough for many members of congress to swallow, and, guys, given the continuing strategy stres put on personnel and resources, the pentagon is saying our military will not return to full readiness for at least five more years, and budgets over that time as proposed will total $150 billion above sequestration caps. >> you have a personal angle to this story too, don't you, that feeds into this? >> well, it's -- yes, if i -- half the military budget is for military pay and health benefits, and members are going to get a slight raise. like 1% this year. they're going to have to pay 4% more out of cost. in my own family what we see -- my husband is former navy. his very generous pension kicks in in five years. he has been counting on that. he has been promised it.

our son is a second lieutenant in the marine corps who has been delayed getting paid, delayed going to the basic school in qauntico until may because of the sequestration cuts. is congress -- could they ever go to my husband and say, you know what, you're going to have to take a cut in that because we need to pay people like your son? >> yeah. that really illustrates it very clearly. thank you for sharing that story. thank you, jane. >> well, time for your earnings play. the three big names to watch. that's coming up next. >> and later on, the super bowl commercial that brought the most controversy. that is the nationwide ad. a you big fumble, or maybe it comes down to marketinging. as we head down to the break, your s&p 500 sectors. we're seeing about half of the green. half in the red. energy and telecom, the best health care and consumer discretionary, the worst. we're back after this. ♪

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reported so far. 74% have reported above estimates. 9% net estimates, and 17% reported below estimates. first up we got to taul talk about anadarko. especially with the decline in crude prices and the severe cap ex cuts that we've seen lately. that's going to really hold the keep for a lot of the e & p companies. on the bright side within the space a lot of analysts favor anadarko petroleum. on the negative side analysts don't think that the cap ex will have more to come. >> weep in mind, they had actually guided lower. they've been cutting cap ex for the last three years, and i can't remember the exact number, but they gave $37 billion. i don't want to say it because i can't remember off hand. they'll give more detail on it in the conference call in march. >> this has been such a wonderful company.

it's run so well. >> the stock is down about 27% since august. kind of in line with its piers. the percent of it on the street, i mean, all of these companies, the estimates have gotten slished. in fact, if you take a look at the peak price target of anadarko back in august, the average price target then was $126. it's $97 now. it just shows you the sentiment has really turned on this sector, and it is still a big question mark as to whether or not it has bottomed at this point.

they weren't ready for the volume, and they redid their cost structure. the conference call will be extremely important to basically find out whether or not this company has gotten it together. are they going to announce restructuring? how is the u.s. market? they did say december was mixed at best. is it a ups specific story? if you see and listen to some of the companies and what they've been saying, some of the anecdotal information, first, we have retail sales that's softer than expected. american express said the same thing. december was, eh, some good, some bad. visa too. i think that it's not necessarily a company specific issue. what bothers me about ups is they were supposed to have

gotten the infrastructure right, and they got it wrong. >> you think they would be sitting in the cat bird seat having gotten it right or allegedly spshgs then with the increase and all the internet and you think it would be kind of on and upwards. >> he wants to improve. they're targeting you 90% of 2015, and we want to hear an update on what he is -- what he is doing with this company as far as returning capital to shareholders. et cetera. also, how the business is as well. because pricing has been pretty good through 2014.

there are concerns it's going to get softer in the property and casualty business going into 2015. >> i'm also interested to hear if they get any kind of guidance on interest rates. you know, a lot of the banks say, well, now we don't expect the fed to change rates this year. they're very smart management types, and i think they've got their handle on the business in general. >> guys, thank you. >> i'll see all tonight at 5:00, and we'll have full coverage. all of the earnings after the bell of course tonight. brian and mandy, over to you. >> thank you very much. let's take a look at the white house because a light-hearted moment at the white house. a lot of talk about bunls, but it is the tradition to greet the champs of sports teams, and so the president is honoring and welcoming both l.a. champions. the l.a. kings from hockey, and the l.a. galaxy from mls. there you go. >> okay. well, a big fat sell on jc penney. plus, four other stock goals. street talk is coming up.

>> another look at the day's mystery chart. it is not a stock. it is a commodity. it is down 3.5% in one week. all the hints you deserve, america. we're back after this. (lowe) hi. i'm rob lowe. and i have directv.

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second day in a row we're seeing oil strengthen heading into the close. let's go to jackie with more. >> hi. pricing right now $49.56 on wti. we're under $55 in brent. more buying after we saw that spike into the close on friday. this is after the earnings from oil majors that have started to come out. we're seeing cap ex cuts and hearing about more rig count supplies. the ideas here is that production will eventually start to slow. some people are doesing is this the bottom? some people are saying they might spike before we head lower. meantime, i do want to talk about gas prices. seven straight days of increases now after $123 days of declines. $2.06 is where we stand, and a lot of people think the party is over there too. back to you. >> thank you very much. well, let's do something you do every single day.

street talk giving the analyst calls on stocks that you need to know about. the first one is jc penney. coverage with a big fat sell. >> yeah, jcp is up a little bit. not reacting to that call. the notice is better than bad. isn't quite good. they simply say this. the shares are overpriced. given jc penney's ability or lack thereafter to grow earnings. no price target, though. remember, this was $11.30 stock back in september. >> okay. moving on to stock number two. this is another sell. deutsche bank says sell windham worldwide. >> that stock is down 2.75%. they've seen many potential negative on the horizon to the hotel chain. one of which is more currency risk. windham very big internationally. their price target is $69. my friends, that is about 15% down side on wyn. >> this is not an upgrade. this is o'reilly auto, but it is a price target boost. >> the stock is obviously named in the ticker after a parisian

airport. they're boost it to $215 a share. grub hub starting with a buy rating. >> maybe it's helping. grub is up 2.4%. $35.26. they think grub is well positioned in what the analyzes call the early innings of a possibly $50 billion food delivery market. they've got $42 target on grub hub. that applies 20% up side. and exceleron. >> it accelerated down today. cambridge massachusetts pharmaceutical company, fbr capital starts with an outperform rating, and a $57 target. the stock is at $38 and change. more than 40% up side seen on xlrn. >> all right. on deck, this show our fine hour

has been the home of opium, but now we have the negativity indicator. we're going to explain what we mean coming up. >> this is a final look at today's chart. hit number one was it was not a stock. hint number two, it's a commodity. your third and final hint is it's starting to tarnish. after this quick break. if you haven't already worked it out.

yes, mystery. we told you it wasn't a stock. it's a commodity. we also told you it was starting to tarnish. it is silver. i guess the metal is down more than 3.5% over the past week. it often trades in tan dem with gold. cell phones, electronics and solar pabls. it has a slightly different fundamental equation. >> it also goes into silver. >> it goes into silver. >> yeah. >> it does. it goes into silver. >> made of silver.

>> time now to explain what we just called a moment ago. the negativity indicator. this is what it is. we put together street talk. we're going through the ups and downs, the buys and sells. lately we have noticed that they're just seem to be more sell calls from analysts out there. is it true? what does it say about the market? are we completely out of our mind? rich bernstein of bernstein advisors joins us. it is an anecdotal thing you notice. we point the out a few. still the joert are buy. do you think there's anything to this? >> the question isn't are they getting more bearish, but will they be able to catch the turn if there's a bottom? i think history says the ants so that is squarely no. >> you're basically saying it's -- just because weave had volatility in january, and let's fake it, it wasn't that good at

all. people start to think things are over. is the bull market alive and well? is it going to keep on going, rich? >> well, you know, our story maybe has been for five years now. we're in one of the biggest bull markets of our careers. yes, there's been some recent volatility. of course, that's the case. that's very unsettling. if you look at pension funds, pension funds are underway in u.s. equities. if you look at funds flows, mutual fund flows have been consistently out of u.s. equities, including etf's for quite some time. wall street strategists are recommending an underweight of equities.

hedge funds are stuck in the middle. they're not doing much in the middle. they decide if they want to be bullish or bearish. who exactly has over embraced -- who is over enthusiastic about this market? it's very hard to find an investor group that's over enthusiastic. >>. >> rich, at the same time we're increasingly seeing economic data that is getting a bit patchy. the data that he with got today alone. that does mean that would hold the fed back. it would keep the fed. >> they get go the economic data, and they compain that with the idea that the fed is going to tighten. >> that doesn't really work too well unless the fed is completings misguided. maybe people think that's the case. i think if the economic data or the profits data more importantly continues to weaken,

that would argue the fed pushes out the date for raising rates. and if you want to create the armageddon scenario, it's pretty easy to do. all i can say is earnings are going to weaken, and the fed will raise rates. >> what's the probability of that really happening? has the fed really lost their minds? >> some people would say of course they have, and i understand that. i just don't think the probability of that armageddon scenario happening is all that much. >>. >> the fed might be -- because we put the fed in with every market interview, i think we do this market a disservice by not promoting the fact that earnings growth has been okay. sales growth -- maybe that's all fed, rich. in your mind of this rally, this monster five, six year rally is 100% of it the fed.

20%? 80%? >> you know, 52.7, brian. i don't know. >> 51.7 would have been right. >> who knows? i think what people have missed in the past several years and what very few people discuss is that corporate profits became the largest percent of gdp ever in u.s. history. >> there has been improvement in fundamentals that was not anticipated before. that's the key point. think about what expectations were a year ago, two years ago, three years ago, five years ago. you can't tell me that the way the economy has played out is what people expected it to do. it's turned out to be much healthier than people actually expected. i think that's the reason why the market is up. you also have this unanticipated improvement in fund mentals. >> even though today's topic was all about negativity, we actually end odd a positive note. thank you very much for putting a ray of sunshine. sfroo glad i could do that.

>>. >> when a movie starts breaking box office records, everybody notices. does america's number one movie right now have a clear message for next year's presidential election? we'll ask the experts. plus, the one company that came out as both winner and loser in this year's super bowl. it's a bit of a riddle. stick with us to find out the answer. i've been called a control freak...

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xfinity customers add xfinity home for $29.95 a month for 12 months. plus for a limited time, get a free security camera call 1800 xfinity or visit comcast.com/xfinityhome. >> benchmark ten-year treasury note is 1.66%. we just talked about the federal reserve. let's go to rick santelli. dare, sir, i ask you the same question i just asked rick bernstein, which is which percentage of the stock market rally the last six years is directly attributable to the fed? >> you can't go above 100%. >> listen, i think that more than half of the up side in equities has been fuelled in large part to direct and indirect aspects of quantity takive easing. the real issue isn't how much propelled it up. it's how much can stocks stay up as, of course, qe ended and left to its own devices, although

zero interest rate policy is rather large. you see the charts, and you can see treasuries really, ryan, have been drifting from last week and a half or so since the big ecb meeting and drifting means everything is in place. yes, yields are going down. they're going down very slowly. the real question is when we put the sale back up and we get more pro active trade, what will trigger is, and what direction? i think it's a pretty good chance to say employment statistics this week might be that catalyst. >> you know, at the top of the show, i was mentioning that the treasuries, and it was not a great month at all for stocks. for treasuries, it's actually the best in terms of returns. i think 2.88%. in over six years. what's the feeling out there in the bond as to what february is going to look like after that january?

>> he think look for more lift if equities move lower. a lot of what's the catalyst this january and last january, stock not getting their sea legs. if they get their sea legs, maybe it will be like february of last year where most of the big move for treasuries really did come in january until we resurged back in september, october. >> i've had a pretty good success rate with my -- i'm going to be spectacularly, massively wrong on my bond market method that the tin year will end the year at 3% over. >> i think it's highly unlikely. we can all hope. the only way we get a 3% ten year is if we truly have a 4% gdp economy. >> rick, thank you. >> thank you. >> one sector doing well today, solar stocks. one firm said this morning, the industry really getting a triple

play of good news today. perhaps nothing bigger than that. the president's government proposes solar tax credits that are out there currently permanent. first solar sun power ga solar, canadian solar, other solar all up today. >> another bullish factor is china aiming to install 15 gigawatts of solar power capacity. it's more than last year. that's a positive for those stocks as well. another box office win for american sniper. the wins just keep coming. >> american sniper led the box office for a third weekend in a row. the r-rated drama added $31 million to its u.s. box office gross. just a hair behind the super bowl weekend record set by hannah montana and miley cyrus. sniper still impressive considering that it's in its third week of release. the film is now grossed nearly $250 million in the u.s.

putting it on track to surpass the matrix reloaded to become the second highest grossing r-rated release behind only passion of the christ. this is a big win for time warner's warner brothers, which spent less than $60 million to produce the film. perhaps more ahead of the oscars. it's already surpassed savering private ryan as the highest grossing war manufacture ever. >> all right. thank you. the box office success of american sniper telling us something about next year's presidential election. what do you think are our audiences sending a message, or are they simply enjoying the movie? >> i think it's a little of both, brian. americans certainly don't love war, but they do love their warriors. if you think about this movie in the context of how far this country has come since the vietnam war, imagine putting out

a movie like this after that conflict. it is pretty remarkable. as it relates to politics, though, one of the things about republican primary electorates is the moving into hotly contested nomination fight is that typically these issues of national security, iran getting a nuclear weapon, protecting america against terrorism, they tend to be very high on the list of concerns of voters, and in a poll this weekend out in iowa, terrorism was the number one issue for caucusgoers. so i think it's striking a little chord but certainly a cultural chord. >> is it too early to tell if this movie will help republicans in 2016? >> i think the movie itself will be an afterthought by the time we get around to any people voting. having said that i do think as you look at the set of issues before the president and the

prospective president, terrorism ch terrorism is going to be a topic of concern. americans are concerned after having seen what just occurred in pair race not long a-- paris ago. when americans see this movie in the numbers they are seeing it, it naturally causes them to think more deeply about war and conflict overseas. >> if we can extrapolate and say the american public at least as it sits right now are maybe going to look for a candidate with some sort of strong agenda on terrorism or national security issues, who in the field we know so far, sara, do you think would fit that bill? >> i think certainly one of the sitting governors who has done a good job of building up their foreign policy bona fides. there's a reason chris christie is in london today. it's not just a tour.

it's to show the country that he's paying attention to the global scene. so i think one of these governors who is a strong leader, who has the ability to project himself as someone who can learn foreign policy quickly and make strong decisions. you know, in the aftermath of the obama presidency, where many americans, including many independents feel like this president has led from behind or has taken a less aggressive tact on the foreign stage, they're going to be looking for somebody very strong to lead the country moving forward, and a number of the guys running and gals running, one gal running right now on the republican side, certainly are working hard to make sure that they're educated on these issues. >> sara, it was a pleasure. coming up, the debate over this ad. stick with us. >> grow up because i died from an accident. financial noise

>> at nationwide we believe in drch financial noise -- financial noise financial noise

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. that super bowl ad sparking plenty of controversy for being too morbid and some even think tacky, but nationwide is saying its sole purpose was to, quote, start a conversation, not to sell insurance. so was it a good marketing strategy? let's ask the ceo of msco marketing. i once again got chills down the back of my spine. do you think it was effective or was it just morbid? >> well, look, there's nothing more profound than the death of a child, and there's nothing more disgusting than the abuse of that subject in a context where it doesn't belong. if nationwide really did care about the well-being of children and wanted to protect them from an untimely death, they should take the money and give it to a charitiable organization or set

up their own that does good work for children to protect them from injury and god forbid death than to use it as a cheap stunt on the super bowl. it sickened me to hear it on the game, and it sickens me to hear it every time. no one can possibly have good feelings about nationwide when they hear that, and you know? i often call it the stupid bowl because otherwise intelligent companies do crazy things with advertising to try to win awards for creativity as opposed to telling us what they do and how we can avail ourselves of their services. >> and, mark, i happen to agree with you, and i think there's this thought sort of -- and you hear it all the time which is, well, if we're talking about it, it must be a good thing. i disagree. listen, my beef with the ad was that the definition of an accident is something that is unforeseen and something that you cannot control, and so it's almost like saying, hey, for all those parents out there who

maybe have had something bad happen to their kids, you could have controlled that. and to me that was not a good message. >> absolutely. and this concept of if you're talking about it, blah, blah, blah. you think bill cosby feels that way? it's ridiculous. i mean, it's not designed to do that. a commercial is designed to show a product or service's attributes in a way that makes you want to buy them, period. it's not designed to go into a museum to show how wonderfully gifted the creative director was in producing the reel. but so much of what poses as advertising is really posing for creativity awards as opposed to selling product. that really crossed the line and for me i'm somebody who has to really cross the line big time to take offense at something like that. >> the company came back. how often is it that a company actually has to come out after an advertisement and say, look,

you know, guys, we weren't even trying to sell insurance. we're just trying to start the conversation, but at the end of the day, if you're going to be paying that much money to buy a commercial spot, don't you want to sell insurance? don't you think it's a little disingenuous to say we're not trying to sell insurance? >> absolutely. if you ask the stakeholders -- i don't know if it's a mutual or not, i forget but if the shareholders, if you put a vote to the shareholders should we do a spot, a very expensive spot on the super bowl, we do not intend to sell our product, do you think it would be voted up or down? where we're going to depress people who are at the greatest party in the world every year, super bowl day, it's bigger than christmas for most people and we're doing to try to degrees th -- depress them on that day. the issue is again people see a commercial and they need to fall in love with a product or service. that's the only thing that justify that is kind of expenditure. >> mark stevens, powerful discussion there.

we appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> all right. so he's the author of "your marketing sucks." the market, not sucking too bad, i guess. >> kind of flat out there but it's an incredibly up and down day. a double triple as we call it whether it's down triple digits, down triple digits and now kind of flat. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. and welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the snowy new york stock exchange. >> i was just tweeting, it's starting to snow out there again. why couldn't that buttonwood tree be in miami? that's what i want to know. it's a new month, the same kind of volatility. january is carrying over to a february. we call it a triple-double and it's happened again today. the dow was up triple digits, down triple digits, and wouldn't you know it's virtually unchanged as we go into the close. we he