me. >> thank you. >> all right. so he's the author of "your marketing sucks." the market, not sucking too bad, i guess. >> kind of flat out there but it's an incredibly up and down day. a double triple as we call it whether it's down triple digits down triple digits and now kind of flat. thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. and welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the snowy new york stock exchange. >> i was just tweeting it's starting to snow out there again. why couldn't that buttonwood tree be in miami? that's what i want to know. it's a new month, the same kind of volatility. january is carrying over to a february. we call it a triple-double and it's happened again today. the dow was up triple digits down triple digits and wouldn't you know it's virtually unchanged as we go into the close. we have some economic data. we have lots of earnings still.

a lot to talk about. >> policy front as well. the president unveiling a $4 trillion budget that he says is all about middle class economics. republicans say this is just asking for more taxes and it doesn't balance the budget. it does include a proposal to bring offshore profits back to america. it's very similar to a bipartisan proposal introduced by republican senator rand paul. he will join us to speak about the president's budget and we'll try to figure out if he's getting in the 2016 race. >> you don't want to miss that. plus could activist investors take aim at twitter and at the ceo. darren swisher wrote a piece that's been getting a lot of buzz and our jim cramer has said, quote, a, b, c, anybody but costello. we'll see how hots hot seat is for dick. >> it's a new month, we're kicking things off in slightly

negative territory. the dow has been up and down. it's hovering around the flat line. the nasdaq is the underperformer, off ten. earlier it felt like flashback to december where we sat and sat at the 2,000 left for the s&p. a couple months later we're still pretty much looking at that level. >> let's talk about it. kelly conley from jhs capital advisers. sam stovall at the big board. tom metzel. brian jacobson from wells fargo and our own rick santelli as well. sam, you're a keeper a follower of the so-called january barometer which suggests that activity in january can foreshadow what will happen the rest of the year. january is in the books. what does it tell us about what could happen in 2015? >> that's right, bill. if you remember your old stock traders almanac. as goes january, so goes the year. and in the down years i think

what it basically says is there's confusion. it's a confirmation of confusion rather than confidence and the average price change whenever we've had a down january has been a decline of an additional 0.7% for the remaining 11 months of the year. but you can still get a good guide from the sectors and sub industries that did well in january. >> kelly, the market still seems to be following oil. we had a strong pop on friday. today holding in there and some of the energy names are outperforming again. will it all depend on energy moving higher? >> wlgell, you know, i like the story of the strong dollar. i think a strong dollar reflects a strong economy, and i think that people are under the impression that because we're in this bull market going on the sixth year now, that it's going to end because of its age -- >> i can hear. >> don't really close on age. they close on recessions and there's nothing, in my opinion that i see out there that's indicating a recession on the

horizon. u.s. yields paltry even though they are, are still better than europe and japan, so i see a lot of money coming into the u.s. market and i think the slide in oil, you know, on the front side we're seeing a lot of negativity because of the job losses but that's a huge tax cut globally and that can only help our economy here and around the world and i think that over the next couple quarters we're going to see that play out positively. >> tom, you're the guy that watches muni bonds. we'll talk later in the hour about the rush to defensive plays in the market again. i mean munis could be considered that. are munis overvalued as a result of people seeking safety and income at the same time? >> yes bill. i think that munis have underwe

are formperformed treasuries. they're yielding in excess of 105% on the long end of the curve and given that as the economy gets stronger municipal credit gets stronger we actually feel quite strong about the potential outperformance of municipals versus other fixed income investments going forward. >> brian, what about you guys? do you feel the same way about this being a really attractive place for investors? >> i'd actually be a little cautious here. i do agree with tom saying about how mun nis are a very attractive place to be looking for opportunities. you certainly want to be careful about which specific areas nur you're looking at. high yield bonds are perhaps an attractive area as well if you shorten up your duration. as far as with stocks i'm a little concerned about the near term volatility. sam talked about the january effect. that didn't play out that well last year. we had a good year and the january effect didn't really confirm we should have had one. so i think we might be in store for some near-term volatility.

however, i would view that as a buying opportunity. i think perhaps the downside would be very capped or maybe troughed here at around 1885, 1850 or so. any weakness i would be buying into. >> rick, sam did use the word confusion to describe some of the markets out there. now that we have january behind us, do you sense market confusion? we don't see a lot of the markets moving in lock step the way they normally would. what's your perception of the market message right now? >> well i think you have all the underdog investors aiming towards europe because if they get it right and europe doesn't go into a more prolonged recession, they will probably get a nice delta with the upside as evident by some of the performance on the dax of late but you really want to watch the italian and french stock markets more. with regard to the u.s. i don't know. i think just look at today. a split decision on income going up and consumption going down. the weakest ism since january of last year exactly one year

january of 2014. basically 2.5% is what gdp was for all of 2014. so listen i think the markets are doing it about right with noq e. it's going to be tougher for stocks. zero interest rates will make more apples be able to come back and recycle liquidity in the stock purchases but even that dynamic may be running its course. i think you're really going to start to see the next several big jobs numbers make a big difference to kind of be the arbiter of the close calling with regard to is the economy reaching escape velocity or the same old new normal. >> this proposal president obama's proposal and senators paul and boxer, that repatriation holiday. do you think this will be quoodgood moves? >> i think it's better than nothing as far as it's a good

starting point to discuss about maybe some corporate tax reform. more important than what president obama said i think it's going to be what janet yellen says during her monetary policy report in front of congress. that's really sort of what threw the markets into a tizzy last year. it was almost a year ago i think it was february 11th when she delivered that report and they pointed out about excessive valuations in the biotech and small cap media space. maybe what janet yellen says in front of congress will be more important than what congress does. >> kelly i know you said you like the strong collar because it points to a stronger u.s. economy. tell that to caterpillar and u.s. multinationals who said they were suffering. i guess they say they're being ganged up on. what do you think about that? >> you know nobody likes to give up money in taxes, but if you look at the overall use for that if it does go to

infrastructure in the u.s. which we know we've needed for quite some time the jobs and the materials and what that produces economically has a strong impact on the whole global economy. >> rick do you have any issues? where do you come down on the tax repatriation holiday? >> i think it's a bold excuse for not doing the right thing. i think most politicians don't want to do the right thing, and i think when it comes to any kind of tax reform none of us are being very honest. tax reform means certain people pay less, certain people pay more and the one that is pay more don't want to pay more. it's going to be like pulling teeth and i think when i hear a one-time repatriation what i hear is another tin ear by washington to easy issues to help the economy through structural reform. >> all right. we got to go. i was going to ask some more questions but we have to move along with breaking news.

thank you all. appreciate your participating in our "closing bell" exchange. we have breaking news from the nfl. what could that be? >> what we're looking at here is some more color with regard to what's happening with the nfl's concussion settlement against for concussion injuries to former players. the u.s. district court for the eastern district of pennsylvania and u.s. district court judge anita brody has said that she is looking to make some changes to enhance the fairness reasonableness, and adequacy of the proposed class action settlement agreement. she thinks this will make the settlement more fair. she does believe there is -- a settlement should provide credit for players who played in other leagues like nfl europe some of the related and farm type leagues in the past. the judge said the settlement should provide all living retired nfl play whose qualify for medical exams can get

examined regardless of cost. some stipulations before anita brody. >> she's really holding the line on this isn't she? >> oh yeah. thank you, dom. >> thanks dom. heading toward the close. 50 minutes left in the trading session. we've had a lot of volatility again. you couldn't tell it by the numbers right now. the dow is up 29 but it was up triple digits then down triple digits, but we'll see how we do as we head toward the close. we have the s&p up 6, the nasdaq down 3. >> coming up senator rand paul speaking with us and a first on cnbc interview. plenty to discuss, including the president's plan to tax overseas corporate profits to pay for infrastructure projects. it does look like a lot like the senator's own plan. we'll get into that and mosh with rand paul. up next, another big storm slamming the northeast. chicago area got to big. our friends at the weather channel will tell you what you need to know on where this storm is heading next. plus, i love this story.

our kate rogers is live in manhattan in new york city at a small business that never closes even during hurricanes. and it's paid off big. we'll have that story coming back in a moment.

welcome back. starting to strengthen going into the last hour. we've had a lot of volatility. the dow was up triple digits down triple digits. we've had a bounce in oil today. the transports have been strong. all kinds of things going on here as we head toward the close. you see the sector heat map, only two of the s&p 500 sectors are lower today and it's not ironic but those have been leaders recently, so they're coming back. utilities and health care. otherwise everybody is positive today. >> on top of that we have breaking news on apple with josh lipton. what's going on, josh? >> well kelly, this news from apple just crossing. apple is going to expand its footprint in arizona making a $2 billion investment in mesa arizona, for what apple is calling a new data center. it will be a command center for its global networks. one of apple's largest

investments, it's going to mean 600 engineering and construction jobs. like all data centers it will be powered by 100% renewable energy. this site used to be housed byg t advanced technologies the company that supplied sapphire material to apple. apple will not be using the site to manufacture sapphire just being used as a new data center. the governor of arizona calling this a huge win for the state and that it will bring significant economic investment. guys back to you. >> all right. some news there. josh, stock up a little bit but a lot of things buffeting this name. we have six more weeks of winter meanwhile according to punxsutawney phil. and another mega snowstorm is crushing much of the nation. >> we have the weather channel's reagan reaganaegan medgie in white plains. the snow has come back in downtown. how is it there? >> reporter: the snow is here again. new york city, they have been

measuring 2 inches of snow per hour. i feel like bill murray in groundhog day. the snow isn't stopping but it makes for a good back drop. i'm going to show you the roadways. you see right there, it's slushy, it's wet, but that's going to change as it -- you head into the evening hours because it's going to get cooler and with that ice. now, the commissioner here for the department of public works says we have everything in place, we have the salt on the ground, we have the liquid on the ground later on so we should be good but regardless you just want -- okay. i'm going to get splashed. okay. there's live tv for you. but, yeah so you see it. it's just liquid. if you look over back you can see all of the salt being spread behind. that is very important to note because they are on top of it here in white plains to make sure it doesn't freeze over. when we look at the ground it's kind of a slushy thing. i have been making mention of this all day. it's like a seven layer dip in

the super bowl if you would those snacks at the super bowl that seven layer dip. we had the snow and then we had a little bit of ice and then we have freezing rain and snow again. so if we look here here is a perfect example. here is some snow. this has been falling since about noon okay? check this out, we've got a layer of ice, look at this. if i flip it on the other side you're going to see that it's got little ice pellets here. this is what's between a layer of snow ice, and then more snow underneath. if we look back over here check this out. this is what you have to slosh through if you're going to be going through this city through white plains all of this just icky stuff but it's going to get colder so you definitely want to make sure you take it really slow on the roadways later tonight. guys back to you. >> we love the layer cake there. love the illustration. thanks, very much. kelly and i -- one of us is

going home tonight. one of us is staying prudently downtown tonight. >> it always turns out to be the storm that you don't think is going to be a bad one that is the bad one. just to mention as well for a lot of viewers who live in the 95 corridor looks like there's a pretty serious accident shutting down the northbound lanes near connecticut. >> not good. not good. some small businesses actually ring up big sales on messy weather days like this one. >> our kate rogers is standing by. we love this. at a pizzeria in new york city that is embracing days like this. tell us about it. >> that's right. not every small business can actually afford to shut down due to inclement weather especially if you're a pizzeria like uncle paul's in manhattan. last week when the mayor shut down the entire city, this he stayed open and with a staff of five people managed to make 200 pizza pies in just two hours. >> we're so used to being open 24 hours so to us it's a normal

day. we enjoy serving clientlel, especially when conditions are not favorable for everyone else to be open. kind of puts us on a ped stral being around when others cannot. >> and global insights data finds that shutdowns in this particular region can be extremely costly. they say shutting down the state of new york for just one day can cost upwards of $700 million. shutting down new jersey can cost upwards of $289 million and that two-thirds of those losses come straight from the pockets of hourly wage workers. uncle paul's tells us if they shut down for one day, it costs them $3,500 which is a big hit for such a small business. >> and i'm guessing a lot of people will be heading to vanderbilt raef to get some of uncle paul. kate roger is live on the scene. thank you. >> 40 minutes left in the trading session. the dow slowly moving higher up 58 points. now 60.

the s&p is up 10. i heard talk of a rebalancing of an index. not sure what it is. i probably shouldn't even be mentioning it if i don't know which one it is. that could bring some volatility on the close. >> we're watching oil prices. stocks have been tracking those and coming up royal dutch shell's ceo will speak with us exclusively after ringing today's closing bell at the new york stock exchange. we want to hear how he's steering his firm through the oil price collapse and where he thinks prices will go by year end. >> up next is twitter's ceo dick costolo ripe to be targeted by activists. we'll kick it around after we come back.

welcome back. just like that we're up 80 points as we head into the close here. bill, as you mentioned, we've been up and down triple digits. >> art cashin just stopped by. that rebalancing is not one index. it's a master limited partnership that are being rebalanced and that is affecting various indices. so not one index. it's kind ever confusing but at any rate we will see what that does to the close today. here is what the nasdaq 100 heat map looks like, all 100

components. looks like it's roughly 50/50. half up, half down. >> it looks like that's micron getting hurt on the session. meanwhile, some outperformance from qualcomm which really took it on the chin last week. >> dominic chu has been studying them all carefully. he has our movers on this first trading day of the month. >> i wish i had time to go through all of them. let's start with the highlights. we'll begin with verizon gaining ground on a "wall street journal" report it's close to selling a package of cell towers for more than $10 billion. verizon shares up by 2.5%. pitney bowes is moving lower an reporting quarterly sales that fell short of forecasts. then there's lululemon also trading lower. the yoga pants maker's founder is leaving the board of directors but he will keep his stake. lululemon down by 1%. then there's exxonmobil gaining ground despite reporting a 21%

drop in quarterly profiting on plum netting oil prices. it managed to beat wall street forecasts but said it's going to trim back its buyback program to $1 billion. kelly, bill they had spent $3 billion in the fourth quarter on those buybacks. so a fairly significant reduction, guys. back over to you. >> and exactly what we were waiting on. we'll talk to chevron next hour. meanwhile, twitter stock has taken a hit in the last six months. down over 15% and there are concerns about user growth lack of product innovation among the issues putting pressure on the company. now, the ceo, dick costolo could begin to feel more heat. >> kara swisher was out with a piece on that topic that's getting a lot of buzz though she does note that twitter's co-founder continues to support dick costolo. they reiterated publicly their support for mr. costolo.

but does dick costolo start to feel the heat? dennis berman from "the wall street journal" thinks it's time for him to go. why, dennis? >> well look if there is an argument to be made, and i think there is some leeway in that argument, you love to put me in that box so i will argue it but if there's -- >> get out of that box, go ahead. >> that's the simple idea that the company isn't performing up to its expectedations, certainly not up to the stock price. we have seen primarily problems in product execution. they've cycled through three or four products chiefs over the last couple years, and it just hasn't gained traction with the people who matter the most the advertisers. and can i add one more thing, guys? i want to read to you the mission statement that they put out at the end of the last quarter or their product statement. let me read it to you. reach the largest daily audience in the world by connecting everyone to their world via our information sharing and distribution platform products and be one of the top revenue generating internet companies in the world. i don't get it.

>> i remember dennis when that came out and you and everybody were going over it saying wait a minute, shouldn't this at least fit in a tweet. a question though about the super bowl last night. john steinberg was on our network this morning saying that was a testament to twitter's power. a lot of hash tags the extent to which people were involved and stories were shaping themselves on the platform. doesn't that speak to twitter's endurance? >> definitely. i think the question is turning that power, that cultural power, in sort of a business power. i kind of compare it in a way, and this is a bit unfair to the palmpilot. if you remember those. kelly, you were probably back in high school or middle school. >> my dad had one. >> it changed the way we handled our information but it was not an enduring company. the question is whether this prove duct we love and use and has a resonance with a certain

type of person can sustain that. >> herb greenberg is joining us. you guys are always highlighting ceos on the hot seat. most recently you put don thochson of mcdonald's and he ended up losing his job. you have always put marissa mayer on there. what about dick costolo? can you keep his job? you think he should why? >> we're talking about a situation -- bad feedback guys really bad feedback. we're talking -- >> we'll fix it. >> we're talking about a situation with somebody who has been in his job for not as long as say don thompson in the sense of trying to make something work and i think we're in a situation -- i'm sorry, guys -- i wish i could get some no feedback here. >> want me to argue the other side? >> what i see here i'll share herb, your perspective with everybody. i have never been a man of removal unless he removes

himself. >> it's a growth company. they can afford it. i don't think activist investors will show up. it's a different bargain when you have a growth company like this rather than sort of a more mature company where capital decisions are more in play. so i would think that the activist scenario is less of a possibility. i do think the endorsements from the other people on the board are a little bit rich like everyone always supports the ceo until the moment that they don't. i actually don't put a lot of credence in that. i think it's actually a negative sign for him. >> they love them until they don't. herb, i think we have your earpiece worked out now. could this become a self fulfilling prophecy. we were highlighting how jack dorsey was publicly endorsing dick costolo because he knows the kind of heat he's under right now but could it work against him at some point? >> well it only works against him if an activist can come in assuming you think an activist would come in but in this case there is not going to be an activist that comes in that can have impact.

what i was trying to say and kelly articulated so well is you've got to give this guy time. this isn't like a mcdonald's where you can say, hey, we could get a different branding guy, someone who knows the food business. twitter is not a company anyone has run before. you can't even compare it to a facebook. these guys are learning as they go along trying to figure out how it works. i don't see how you can make the case he should be out of there because some people on wall street don't like the way the stock is going right now. this is a situation i believe the company never should have gone public. i think it would still do better under somebody else's auspices -- >> let me just ask you this before we have to end the segment, do you tweet as much as you used to if that even makes sense as a question? >> i was tweeting quite a bit last night during the super bowl and i actually still tweet quite a bit though since i changed to the business -- to running a business i don't tweet as much as i used to for obvious reasons. >> dennis, i go in waves but i can't quite seem to quit it. i can't quit twitter.

>> at least i feel pretty fatigued by it. it seems overwhelming. >> i agree with that. >> media types talking to each other does not necessarily make a business. it's not about us. it's about real people out there. >> i do think -- >> can i make one small point and that is something off what dennis said it's about fatigue but it's not just about twitter, it's about facebook. >> social media. >> sometimes all of it yes. >> i just saw a tweet yesterday and i love this and i will share it being famous on twitter is like being rich in monopoly. i'll leave you with that one. guys thank you. dennis, always good to see you. herb, glad you made it. see you later, buddy. >> really appreciate it. we'll take to twitter to tell you what's coming up. half an hour to go in the 345shg9 markets. the dow is up 77 points. we've really turned around just since we sat down really. there's a look at the s&p 500 heat map. 2 to 1 ratio of gainers versus losers on the session. >> up next, a very busy dominic

chu back again crunching the numbers on winning sectors in the month of january. he said they usually lead the markets the rest of the year. plus two wall street pros name names of stocks they think will win big in year in 2015. and later -- >> i'll never learn to fly or travel the world with my best friend. and i won't ever get married. i couldn't grow up because i died from an accident. >> that nationwide super bowl ad has a lot of people upset. how warranted is that? we'll take a much closer look. stay with us.

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welcome back. again, we're looking at reasons why the market here has picked up a little bit of momentum into the close. there's the greek 10-year. obviously the yield has really surged since the new finance minister appeared to take a much different tact when it came to negotiating with the troika in europe. he's walked that back a little bit, and there are some rumors if you will talk discussion of the market rallying on this call for greece to end its call for write offs and seek debt swaps perhaps on an "ft" report.

just wanted to bring that to your market as markets drop a half a percent. >> the dow was up over 90 points. we are definitely strengthening into the close and there's one of the reasons. >> possibly. we'll keep an eye on it. if the sector does well for january can you count on it to outperform the rest of the year? >> dominic chu looking at the numbers. >> if you look over the past 15 years, this is from research over at s&p capital iq and sam stovall. he went back and looked at all the january barometers. as goes january so goes the rest of the year. that's the reason why people are cautious. if you look at some of the best performing sectors, the three best in the s&p in the month of january, you're talking about names like health care you're talking about utilities and, of course, what's happening with consumer staples. those are more defensive, less economically sensitive sectors at least. maybe that doesn't bode well but those maybe will outperform in the coming year. and the reason why is they took a look at all the numbers, s&p

capital iq did with regard to now it does with the upcoming 12 months and look at this. these are the compound annualized returns going back from 1990 to today. the s&p 500 is up an average of 7.5% overall during this time span. if you look at the best three sectors, the ones we have just shown, they tend to outperform. if you look at the best ten sub industry groups like the reits or consumer electronics, they do well. they put together a basket of ten names that they call their january barometer portfolio, harmon electronic arts kroger. i put the rest of the tickers up on twitter. it's an interesting look on whether the momentum that carries in january goes for the rest of the year guys. at least according to s&p capital iq. >> thanks very much. the stock market taking off. we're back to the highs of the session with the dow up 121 points. again, we've had what we call a triple-double today where the

dow was up double -- triple digits as we are now, we were down 127 points earlier in today agencies agencies session. if it has to do with this "ft" report something because it does give us some information about why markets have underperformed and what it will take for this rally to continue. >> let's talk about the stocks maybe you should be thinking about buying for the next 11 months. >> charlie is vice chairman of aerial investments along with jim lacamp at ubs. great to have you both with us. charlie, what are you picking here for the rest of the year? >> well, we try to buy what others are selling and sell what others are buying. right now people are buying safe, defensive names. people are afraid of the economy. people are afraid of the world economy. people are afraid of oil prices. so we think defensive stocks are expensive, utilities, consumers and those kind of stocks and

the more -- the names that will do well with a stronger economy are what's cheap and we think the u.s. economy is stronger than people think. >> so would you buy oil? is that what you're getting at? >> there are a number of industrial names we would buy, names like bristo a helicopter company that services offshore drilling rigs. anixter services cable and does well when there's decent building rates. those names are trading at 11 times earnings where as utilities are trading at 20 times earnings. >> jim you're looking at consumer defensive kind of names. is that right? >> well i like the health care names most importantly. there's a reason why defensive areas have led the market. a lot of money has been forced into the market that wouldn't otherwise be in the market. interest rates are at ultra low levels. so when you begrudgingly go into the markets, you go into defensive areas. you play it safe. you run the ball on first and goal instead of trying that little pass like they did

yesterday. i think you're going to see these areas continue to do well. i do agree that some of these are overvalued particularly utilities and consumer stappings but there's a lot of earnings growth in the health care space which is also defensive, whether it's the pharmaceutical stores, the drug companies, the medical software, the updating the electronic records. these areas are doing very well from an earnings growth and they're very defensive in terms of being resistant to economic cycles and i think u.s. economy is stronger than the rest of the world but weaker than most people think. >> all right. i wish we had more time. we have to move. we've had more breaking news than we can deal with last hour. >> some great ideas there. >> look at the market. taking off on us. we have a good old-fashioned rally. a moment ago the dow was up 170 points, just off that high. the s&p is up 22. and it's the leader right now. and the nasdaq is up 33 points.

>> bob pisani is up next with a closer look at a market that's been all over the map today. >> oil creeping back. we'll have a live report from the nymex on where it goes here after hitting that number coming up. what can your fidelity greenline do for you? just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review.

welcome back. with 15 minutes to go the dow is up more than 1%. 186 points higher. we mentioned this "ft" story about greece that's potentially part of the reason. the finance minister unveiling a plan to end the debt standoff which is interesting because lathe when markets have been under pressure any number of factors from oil to europe have been cited. this does appear predicated on this development. >> if they can see some clear light in greece, that would be a big positive there. here is the dow heat map. all 30 components home depot and nike the two stocks not participating in the rally today. otherwise you have shep ronchevron and ver advisen verizon. jackie deangelis what's going on there? >> we weren't able to close over $50, $49.57 was the settling price.

traders are saying that the cap ex cuts we're hearing from energy companies and also the rig count redirections, they're starting to price that into oil prices as they look forward, but at the same time we've seen steep drops in volatility in oil before. it's not always a sharp decline downwards. some traders are saying we could bounce up to $60 before we move lower again. the retail gas prices they're creeping up a little bit as well. we hit a low of $2.03 according to aaa. now seven straight days of increases and we're at $2.06. the party could be over when it comes to the pump. back to you. >> oh jackie thank you. that's going to have a lot of people concerned. bob pisani was keeping a sharp eye on the markets. is it oil? what's going on? >> i was talking to some of the guys. oil rallying into the regular 2:30 close helped move the markets. we're starting february with a lot of volatility. the dow is moving in a better than 200 point range today.

that was fairly typical for the month of january. back in 2014 way back then 125 points was the typical day. we've had these 200-point days now routinely. you see the dow sitting at new highs for the day. we're seeing some rotation heavy volume in ets. look at the bond etfs, the barkley. 300%, 400% of the normal volume. this is what you would see at the beginning of the month. people moving money around. they seem to be moving it in the stock market. if you look at some of the big etfs, sector etfs like telecom, technology consumer goods, these are etfs associated with the s&p 500, all of them have got very heavy volume today. finally want to note the energy stocks. exxon holding on very well. lower buybacks for 2015 but they reiterated their commitment to increasing the dividend. that's the key and that's why a lot of people hold exxonmobil. guys, back to you.

>> bob, thanks very much. art cashin just rushed by. he's doing his job right now. couldn't chat with him but he signaled $200 million in stock to buy. that's not a lot and wouldn't account for the rally we're seeing. i guess in part we can attribute it to this article in ""the financial times"" that maybe they're seeing some progress in debt talks with greece right now. >> exactly. it's been a dramatic period basically since that new government did come to power. some resolution perhaps today and that has markets looking to start the month off here on a decidedly positive note. the s&p is now up almost 1.2%. it's back at a level of 2018. we'll have much more ahead on the markets as we kick off the new month. also coming up senator rand paul on president obama's plan to bring back overseas corporate profits and use that tax money to build america's infrastructure. it's a plan that resembled senator paul's proposal to do the same thing but there are some key differences. that interview is coming up.

the volatility continues. the dow was down 127 at its low. it's up 173 just off a high set a moment ago. art cashin just stopped by. his version -- i mean he acknowledges this article in

"the financial times" that maybe had some positive impact but he said it's also just a little while ago they saw there were a tremendous number of buyers coming in about $700 million to buy and that seemed to push the market higher as we head toward the close. joining us steve from iht wealth management and keith bliss from catone and company. you saw the same thing. >> we get to see the balances start streaming through the hand held early on. you can track them and we share that information with clients. we hit a level, can't really explain why, just all of a sudden it's that age old adage, more buyers than sellers. you saw the market turn on that. futures picked up those indicators. once the futures market takes off, you start to see the domino effect in the other markets. >> are you among the buyers? >> isn't that the norm now? isn't this what we do every day now is talk about the number of volatility we're going through? yes, we are buying. we're looking for our

opportunities, what sectors we think are undervalues but, yes, we're definitely on the buying end of the spectrum. >> we talked earlier about leadership in the market and lately it's been the defensive sectors but a couple guys came along and said they're overbought right now. they're too expensive. do you agree? health care, utilities -- >> probably a little overbought right now. we're looking at the energy sector. i know that's kind of the story going on but we think it's oversold. i'm not saying that gas is going up, we're maybe not at the bottom today but is it -- has it gone down too far? has it overreacted in the markets? maybe, yes. >> i feel like a number of people who are on this program are telling us they think energy is undervalued and they're getting involved. so it's hard to know whether we've hit that point yet of extreme -- finding a bottom or extreme undervaluation. >> some of what you're seeing in the oil market is short covering. we're not convinced we're going back to $100 barrel of oil by

any stretch. you're seeing a short term bounce happening and the market is reacteding. i'm going to take the counter side. i'm a little nervous about the equity market. there's enough bad news to make me suspicious. what we're witnessing is the capriciousness if not the outright temperamental nature of the market. expect more of this. >> i thought you were talking about the weather there for a second. >> unfortunately, we live in this area and we're subject to it but this is -- listen it's fun to trade if you have the guts and the fortitude to do it but it's confusing to a lot of people here, so you may just want to get in some good defensive stocks good dividend paying stocks, ride this out. we'll have more of this for a few months. >> you stick around. we'll come back here and see how this market does close out. we're hovering near the high was the dow up 179 points. we'll have the closing countdown in just a moment. >> then after the bell the head of one of the biggest oil companies on the planet royal dutch shell's ceo will join us. we want to find out how he's steering the company through this oil plunge and if he thinks prices have bottomed out.

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about 2:30 left. let's just show you more volatile as we've highlighted. this is the dow today, down 127 on the open this morning. up more than 100 points at one time today. then kind of drifted until the close. look at this pop we've had in the last half hour of trading. some of this may be attributable to the next chart, the greek 10-year yield as kelly was

highlighted. there was an arm in "the financial times" that just broke that maybe they're making some progress in debt negotiations in with -- with greece and the eu. we've heard that story before seen this movie before. at any rate that may be one of the reasons we're seeing this rally. the other thing may be energy. the price of oil has moved higher. we've had the price of gasoline nationally, the average price has gone up seven consecutive days now and some traders are wondering whether we're seeing a bottom put in in this market. there's wti up 3-plus percent to $49.79. we talked about this earlier. you'dskeptical of this kind of rally? >> i would be suspicious of it. you get a lot of short covering inside of these things and volatile spiky movements like that at the end of the day certainly tells you that's the case. >> what if we are making progress in greece? >> if we're making progress in greece, i think you will see -- you actually might see it as a

negative for the u.s. market because you will start to see money glow overflow over into the european market. >> i completely agree with that. >> you're buying dips but it's in vogue to say i like europe right now. >> i like europe right now. as long as greece doesn't fall apart on us. i think it's realunrealistic to think that's going to happen. they would have to bailing out of the euro. i think you can buy into europe cheaper now and i wouldn't be surprised to see it outperform the u.s. market in the next year. >> so here we go. we have a strong close, but you're not -- you're skeptical of this thing? >> i'm absolutely skeptical. i think there's enough bad news out there where you really need to take a step back keep some powder dry. as art cashin likes to say, stay nimble and be extraordinarily nimble into this type of market that we're faced with. >> all right. good to see you, guys. we're going out pretty strong. especially in the last half

hour. we'll see if this can carry through tomorrow as well whether there can be the beginning of a new trend here. ceo of shell is ringing the closing bell. he will be kelly's exclusive guest in a few minutes. don't miss her interview with senator rand paul as well coming up on the second hour of "the closing bell." see you tomorrow, kel. thank you bill. welcome to "the closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans, and we're going out here with a strong day across wall street. it didn't look that way just an hour ago. we'll talk about why in a moment here. the dow gaining about 194 points, almost 200 points on the session to kick off february. we'll see if there's anything to that first trading day index we often look to whether it's for the month or the year. the s&p up 1.3% or 25 points. closing at 2020. the nasdaq up 41 to 4676. let's get right to it with today's panel. joining me cnbc senior contribute larry kudlow. welcome.

cnbc contributor dan grownhouse and john from gfi group and if this group can't get to the bottom of this market, nobody can. also with us for more on today's action "fast money" trader guy adami. >> hi, kel. >> thank you very much for being here. i want to start with the panel right here. was it greece this "ft" story that got the market up at the close, was it oil, something else entirely? what does it mean? what do we make of it? >> i think it was a combination of all three. i think the bears kind of tried to push us lower the last part of last week and today -- this morning they got us down to probably 1980 in the futures, tried a little bit sub 1980. there was a lot of buyers down there. again, we rallied strong. oil helped a lot obviously up $1.50. the rig count on friday people said that oil is going to go down today. that was down actually overnight in europe and asia but we rallied strong in oil as well. i think the combination of that tsipras is making his european

road show. he met with cameron and said there's common sound. something we haven't seen in the democrat and republican parties in the united states this year. if the uk and greece can find common ground i think that's positive. >> it's interesting, if you go back to last night, dan, just kind of tracing the arc of this trading session, we found out china's pmi data wasn't that strong and the orders were a little soft but consumer data was better. was any of this data driven do you think? >> i don't think it was. the larger story is how the market has been acting the last few months. we had this tremendous run in the market really between late 2011 and mid 2014 where there was very little relatively speaking volatility. since the summer of 2014 and really since december, you've experienced a tremendous amount of volatility rallies on the upside rallies on the downside. doug cass is always talking about how this market doesn't remember from one day to the next how it feels about things and i think today's action up 1.3% on the s&p is largely in line with that. >> i can't resist.

look, i love doug he's one of my bestest and oldest pals but he is so bearish. he's now writing six newsletters a day to defend his bearishness. >> what are the bears getting wrong? >> all i can tay is,say is, dogugie, you're going the wrong way. a stronger dollar is terrific. capital from all over the world is coming here. earnings. 230 firms, we are on track for almost 6% earnings growth. now, 6% is pretty much been the trend for the last -- but energy is down 19%. >> well yeah. >> so we've got to make an adjustment. we have to look at the s&p earnings "x" energy. what you're going to find is it's going to come in probably 8% 9% all right? so -- >> this is significant. >> profits are the mother's milk of stock. please look at profits. let energy adjust.

it will do what it's going to do, and the rest of the market is earning pretty darn good and profits are also the lifeblood of the economy. >> guy, larry just said earnings "x" energy. we used to talk about earnings "x" financial. what else do we "x" out? >> hi everyone. i understand what larry is saying. the quick push back on doug is i don't think doug is a bull and a bear. he tends to be market agnostic. he likes to point out the negatives when everybody is positive and conversely i think he likes to point out the positive when everybody is negative. so i think that's why dougie does what he does and i'm an old friend of his as well. that's number one. number two, i would just dis disagree with larry on the energy thing. you pointed to china pmi. i think the u.s. is slowing down. eps growth 6% "x" energy could you say that's a good thing but where is the commensurate revenue growth? i don't think it's there. again, i think you see a lot of

financial engineering. you see it in the form of buybacks and a number of different things but at a certain point that game ends. now, with that said we bounced off 1980 again in the s&p which was where we bounced from on january 15th. that's a good thing, but we had over 100-point range today in the s&p. if you look from peak to troughs during the day. that's pretty significant. i don't know what it means but that's not normal. >> by the way, i want to say, i adore doug cass. >> that's normal when the vix is at 20. >> hang on -- everybody hold that thought. we have some breaking news. on the fcc, eamon javers, what's going on? >> the dow jones is reporting the fcc is expected to pass some strong new net neutrality rules. this is as expected. you remember a while back president obama called for the internet essentially to be regulated like a utility. that looks to be the direction that the fcc is set to go later on this week according to dow jones. they're reporting that the new rules would cover mobile and fixed broadband services and the

rules would make broadband internet providers subject to what they call title two telecommunications regulations. this is another procedural step down a path that we'd seen coming here now for a couple weeks. >> thank you very much. let's look at some of the names in brad band and the media space and see how they're moving after hours if they are. john where would you be looking on this news? >> obviously verizon was obviously doing well today on anticipation of this news. so i think verizon, at&t those stocks obviously did well. i think going back to what we were talking about earlier is that, you know, right now i think energy is one of the only ones along with telecommunications right now in terms of s&p earnings that actually is beating on top and bottom lines. so they're surprising on both sides which is a positive. the market is a discounting mechanism. the fact that oil went down to 50 and people are expecting that since the recount -- rig count

went down oil is not going to react. now they're anticipating the fact that the rigs are coming off. the rigs are declining at a 14% year-over-year rate per week almost. so it's falling more than the 30-year treasury on balance. you have rigs falling -- eventually -- >> that's what markets do. capitalism is about supply and demand. when the price is up everybody produces. when the price comes down you got to cut back. we're going through that. i sort of get that. just two other real quick things. this business about u.s. regulation of the internet this is terrible. this is terrible for growth. i'm not an expert on internet stocks, i won't pretend to be. i'm saying macroeconomy, this is anti-entrepreneurship. >> guy, i want to know if you agree with larry on this front? >> i agree with larry on most things. what front are we talking about because i can barely hear you? >> with regard to the fcc proposals. >> that is way above my pay grade. you want to get somebody a lot

smarter than me to to be able to voice an opinion on that one. >> it's just price and government controls. kelly, you got to make a buck if you're going to expand broadband. >> i agree. >> you got to make a buck. this is about supply and demand and prices and profits. the obama administration is about control. i believe they're wrong. >> if i could get guy back in here for a second. guy brought up something really important before. kelly asked larry what are the bears getting wrong? guy talked about how earnings or whatever they are but he's lamenting the lack of revenue growth. let me ask you a question. could you not have made that argument one year ago, two years ago -- >> absolutely. 100%. listen to me 100%. and that's the same -- right. and the same people are making the similar argument about the monday bond market. you're right you could have said two years ago that the bond market was done just as you can make the point i'm trying to make now that if you don't have -- if you have eps grow without the commensurate revenue growth you're going to be in

trouble. you make a good point. i'm trying not to be dogmatic. i'm trying to take it all in and understand. with that said it does concern me that global interest rates continue to go lower but for the last two sessions the price in energy is getting whacked and there seems to be something greater going on. >> we're going to leave it right there. we have a lot to get to this hour. guy, thank you for being with us. more "fast money" coming up with guy and the rest of the crew at 5:00. they'll be talko dennis gartman about what he thinks about greece and the eurozone. up next don't miss a first on cnbc interview with senator rand paul. he will outline his plan to fix our nation's crumbling infrastructure. he's also weighing in on the vaccine controversy. it's all coming up next. and later, how has royal dutch shell been weathering the storm of falling oil prices. the company's ceo will join us

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welcome back. the buzz on the 2016 president race is hitting up. mitt romney announcing he will

not run again. one potential candidate generating a good deal of attention is senator kentucky rand paul. i spoke with him a few minutes ago on a wide range of issues. take a listen. senator, thank you so much for being here on the show. it's good to see you. listen, we have a lot to get to that's important for investors but i have to begin by asking did you really just say to laura ingraham that you think most vaccines in this country should be, quote, voluntary? >> well i guess being for freedom would be really unusual. i guess i don't understand the point, why that would be controversial? >> senator, maybe you're not aware but there's a huge problem right now with disney theme parks having to close down because of mumps, not enough children being vaccinated because their parents for whatever reason have decided it is voluntary. plenty of the people i work with are concerned about their kids getting sick at school. >> i think vaccines are one of the greatest medical breakthroughs that we had. i'm a big fan and a great fan of

the history of the development of the smallpox vaccine, for example, but for most of our history they have been voluntary voluntary. i don't think i'm arguing for anything out of the ordinary. we're arguing for what most of our history has had. >> i understand you're all for the choice but, again, if we're left in a situation where diseases that were once almost wiped out are now coming back because people are deciding not to vaccinate their kids isn't that a problem? >> i think public awareness of how good vaccines are for kids and how they are good for public health is a great idea. we just appointed a surgeon general. these are some of the things that are things we should promote as good for our health but i don't think there's anything extraordinary about resorting to freedom. i will give you a good example. the hepatitis b vaccine is given to newborns. we sometimes give five and six vaccines all at one time. i chose to have my delayed. i don't want my government telling me i have to give my new

newborn which is transmitted by sexual contact and blood transfusions. i heard of walking, talking normal children who wound up with mental disorders after vaccines. i think they're a good thing but i think the parent should have some input. the state doesn't own your children. parents own the children and it is an issue of freedom. >> thank you, senator. i did want you to clarify that. and it is an issue even for shareholders of some of the theme parks and airlines and so fort. let's move on. obviously the big news of the day is the proposal with you and barbara boxer that would allow our companies which have about $2 trillion worth of cash overseas to bring it home a one-time holiday at a 6.5% corporate tax rate. senator, i'm sure you know that most of the research on this indicates that these actually cost more money over the long term than they save. >> well that's incorrect. >> are you saying your plan would be different? >> let's go back again.

your premise and your question is mistaken. most of the research doesn't indicate that. in fact, there's a prominent study by robert shapiro looking at the holiday in 2005 when we lowered the rate to 5%. his conclusion was it brought $300 billion of new capital home and then it brought in about $30 billion of new tax revenue. the whole purpose of doing this is to bring money home. >> right, but it works -- >> hey hey -- hey, kelly. >> i'm sorry, go ahead. >> calm down a bit here kelly. let me answer the question. the whole point of this legislation is that money has been accumulating. much money has been actually inverting and people are reincorporating because the tax code in our country is not encouraging money to come home. so this is to lower tax rate to bring more money home and to take that new money, some of the tax revenue, and put it into the highway fund. i think this is a win, win, win. you lowery tax rate bring in

more revenue, and you're able to plug a hole we have in our highway trust fund. >> what people want senator, is for you to make this permanent. why not just make it 6.5% period. the problem is that as -- >> let me answer the question. let me answer the question before you get going. >> all right. >> i'm for permanent. i am for making it permanent. i'd even go lower on the rate but this is a bipartisan proposal so i don't get everything i want. the other side doesn't get everything they want but this is how washington can work together where you have a republican and democrat who have to accept something in the middle and we get something that's much better than what we have right now. so my druthers would be a lower rate and have it forever. but the thing is i have to compromise to get something that will actually get to the president's desk, but i think this is the probably number one proposal that has the best chance of being signed into law this year. >> the only issue again being and i do want to move on from this the concern is you do it one time and companies keep the

cash overseas because they realize it is one time. it's not permanent. let's move on for a second -- >> that's why this proposal is actually better than 2005 when they did it for one year. this proposal is for five years and the hope is that we will actually see that it is a net positive over five years and that we will renew it and hopefully this is a step towards making it permanent. >> understood. the other proposal that might move forward certainly i'm seeing a lot of analysts talking about it is your proposal to audit the fed which is given a two-thirds chance of becoming law. the specifics of this looks like the way it differs from the gao audit that already exists. it's an opportunity to question review, et cetera, the monetary policy decisions the fed would be making going forward? >> the current audit we have of the fed is do their books balance and are they paying people what they say they're paying them. it's not an audit at all. we had the auditor come before congress a year and a half ago

and they asked her what did the fed buy with $4 trillion when they bought $4 trillion worth of assets. the auditor has no idea. the auditor was asked ten pertinent questions and none ever them apply to the current audit. it's not really an adud at all. what we're propose something when trillions of dollars exchange hands, that really the american people deserve to know if there's any conflict of interest between the people making the decisions at the fed and the people on wall street benefiting by these decisions. it's a look back one year in time. the bank was created by the people and by congress and it has virtually no oversight now other than some token meetings where they come to congress and give us a lot of hot air but no true oversight. we would like to see true oversight looking back a year at a time not in real time. >> real quick, any response to "the washington post" piece about the sort of self appointed board of colleagues and relatives that were part of your

ophthalmology group in kentucky. >> once again you're mischaracterizing and confusing the whole situation. the board of ophthalmology decided many years ago that they would not certify older doctors, only younger doctors. i led a protest of several hundred ophthalmologists who said that if we're going to have recertification, everyone should recertify regardless of age. so you've taken something and you've twisted it and -- >> listen i like the idea of what you were doing was to create competition and make it more fair for younger doctors. i'm only asking about the part that they raised issue with which was the board. they said look it's a bunch of his family and friends. just on the conflict of interest points. >> right, and you have taken an interview and made an interview into something where we got no useful information because you were argumentative and you started out with so many presuppositions that were incorrect. the fight i had for many years for over a decade was that recertification in the board of

ophthalmology, something i passed initially, should be done for all. everything else is a sideline to try to criticize me for how it was incorporated or unincorporated. all petty sort of criticisms by political opponents. i did something to make it fair to say that all ophthalmologists, particularly the older ones -- i would think the older you are and the farther away you are from your training, the more it would be necessary to shall-- that you would be recertified. it was about fairness and not grandfathering older ophthalmologists in. >> before we let you go. i can tell you're fired up. i apologize for the extent i am the reason for that. what about 2016? with an eye towards you entering 2016 was a presidential candidate or getting drafted into one of the campaigns? >> we're thinking about it and we're looking around the united states and seeing if the message resonates. part of the problem is that you end up having interviews like

this where the interview is so slanted and full of distortions that you don't get useful information. i think this is what's bad about tv sometimes so frankly i think if we do this again, you need to try to start out with a little more objectivity going into the interview. >> i will certainly try my best, senator. we hope you will come back and give us that chance. senator rand paul of kentucky on a wide range of issues this afternoon. senator, we really appreciate it. >> thanks. >> and by the way, early in the interview i think i said mumps. we were talking about disneyland. that's taken a toll on the nhl recently but it's measles that's really the problem and a huge story in the u.s. lately. our larry kudlow here just having heard that interview, larry, and reacting to it what are your thoughts? >> a couple things. first of all, rand paul is a friend. i have spent a lot of time with him i have great regard with him. however, your job is to be a reporter and an interviewer, so therefore, he's saying to you you're misinterpreting this and you're mischaracterizing this and you're twisting it. what did i learn working every

night for 12 years? a good interview, you got to take stuff that's out in the news stream and give him a chance to respond to it. that doesn't make you slanted. this is not msnbc, this is cnbc. we have our own style. here is what's in the news senator rand paul, here is a chance for you to give your opinion and bat it around. so kelly, on this one i think rand is a little off his game. i commend you for asking the right questions. i may not with everything but i commend -- you asked the right questions. he can't put you in the penalty box for asking the questions. >> what about the substance of what he was saying? >> regarding his proposal to link the overseas profits and frskt frskt, i frskt, i do not agree with that. the issue is number one full territoriality. the issue number two is obama not only wants 14%, he then

wants to go 19% after that. number three, this should be tied to full corporate tax reform. that is to say lower the rate from let's say -- >> but his point is basically i can't make that happen so i'm going to do what i can. >> see, i have always argued -- first of all, infrastructure, just one point, i'm going to quote larry summers on this kudlow quoting summers. >> really down the rabbit hole now. >> we should be bonding out infrastructure projects. bond them out, toll roads. >> there's no appetite for that right now. >> it's a great time to borrow. >> i agree. but you should tell everybody else that. >> we should not be spending extra money on this. let's do infrastructure as infrastructure reform. let's do corporate tax reform as corporate tax reform. the two don't mix whatsoever. i don't think paul ryan would have it anyway. on this one i'm not with rand paul. >> from a wall street point of view, reaction john and dan. >> i have never seen rand paul

shh the other kelly, that being megyn kelly, so it was very rude actually. but i think, you know, he seems like he's slipping further towards his father instead of towards the middle. if he has any idea he's going to run for president, some of the positions he's staking out prepresidential run are really extreme so he is going in the wrong problem. his biggest problem is he's an isolationist and isis is on the move and he doesn't -- >> what about his proposal for tax repatriation. >> i think there's a lot of common ground the highway bill infrastructure spending. interest rates are rock bottom. a 12 cent a gallon over two or three years in terms of the gas tax is not a problem. there's already bipartisan bills in congress right now that are going to do just that. >> hang on. we have to go, dan, i'll give you the last word. >> there will be a compromise on the overseas repatriation. unless you make it more

permanent, these bills will come up. >> hold that thought because we have to take a quick break. it looks like the author of "the washington post" article that was just being discussed with senator rand paul will be joining us. we're back in two. there's nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision

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opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. speaking of conflicts of interest, any response to the "washington post" piece about the sort of self appointed board of colleagues and relatives that were part of your ophthalmology

group in kentucky? >> once again your mischaracterizing and confusing the whole situation. >> that was part of my spirited interview with s'more randenator rand paul. joining me is the author of "the washington post" article we speak about. his piece called how "rand paul tried to lead an eye doctor rebellion rebellion." a lot of this article is about the good work the senator has done to help people especially out insurance. she difficult work. he's devoted his life to it. i want to make that clear right away. part of the issue you raise in this article is that in creating this competing ophthalmology board to do the certifications it was the board and the extent to which they might have been friends and relatives of his that the article suggested might not have been completely aboveboard. is that a fair way to put it? >> well there's two things here. one is the idea with which he began this board. senator paul was talking about how he had this noble idea he

wanted to fight unfairness in the existing system and that's true. he started the board for very altruistic and noble reasons. the thing you're talking about is the execution of the board. how did he actually carry it out and there there were problems. like the board was his wife and his father-in-law. neither one of them are ophthalmologists. that's just one of several things that detracted from the professional image he set out to create. >> david it's larry kudlow. i regrettably have not read your article this time. i generally do. i didn't get to this. kelly's interview i thought was terrific. look, you got something in the news david. it's your point of view or it's your reporting, i'm sorry. it just seems to me that kelly evans, who was the emcee of the show, the host and also reporting, she's got a right to report. so my surprise here was not disagree or agree with senator rand paul. my surprise that he got so crotchety about the whole thing. he's usually kind of a laid back

guy. basically what kelly did was give him a chance to say that it was wrong. honestly, what's wrong with that? it's good jumpism journalism, isn't it? >> his answer came at the end of the longer interview. you're right, it was very defensive. more defensive than i had expected it to be. look as he said his reasons for starting this board are something he likes -- he should like to talk about. he does like to talk about fighting unfairness and injustice, you know, things she was talking about was how it was carried out. he described that as petty criticisms or sidelines. there are two equally important parts of the story. >> i just say on this you know it's funny, as i said i know rand pretty well. i'm a great admirer, a big fan of rand paul's. i just think he was kind of off his game today because he's got to know you're going to ask him questions, that's your job as the interviewer and you're giving him a chance to respond and rebut. >> and, david, look we appreciate the reporting. again, just going back to the

piece, this was a chance for the senator to respond. the extent to which he's creating a competing ophthalmology board is not the be all, end all issue. what you're raise something potentially the execution. you felt that was an equally important part of the story. >> i thought it was. you learn two things about him or at least about the version of him 10 15 years ago when this started. one is the noble reasons he started it and one is the way that he carried it out. i think they were both equally important to raise. >> the funny thing is here he's usually a pretty laid back guy, so -- >> feeling the pressure larry. pressure does strange things to people. >> david, thank you for being here. >> boy, i hope you don't grill me like that. >> coming up i turn on larry kudlow. i'm kidding. coming up oil rallying again today. how is the plunge in prices recently impacted royal dutch shell's bottom line. the ceo does join me in an exclusive interview next.

also ahead, it was arguably the most controversial super bowl ad this year. >> i'll never learn to fly or travel the world with my best friend. and i won't ever get married. i couldn't grow up because i died from an accident. >> lots of backlash but is this commercial going to save lives? that's later on "the closing bell." there's confidence. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. now you can get the works, a multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change tire rotation, brake inspection and more. $29.95 or less. barbara just bought a bike. she wrote a tweet about it. you can't learn much from that.

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welcome back. my next guest just rang the closing bell down here at the new york stock exchange. he's been the ceo of an oil giant for about a year now. just in time for that huge plum net. plummet in prices. joining me is ben van buren. >> i feel pretty good about the last year. we had a strong year. first three quarters were stronger than the last quarter. but i think we managed to deal very much with some weakness in our portfolio. we managed to do a significant amount of asset disposals, so we ended this period of weakness with a strong balance sheet, a

lot of cash on the balance sheet. in that sense i think it was good timing. >> one of the things people have been eager to get into the energy space, especially the big names because they feel like there's long-term value there. what is your cash flow like though for the next couple years if oil prices were to stay right here? >> that's a bit hard to predict. the cash flow we had in last year '14 was $45 billion. that of course, will be significantly affected. rule of thumb, $10 per barrel oil price difference will be about $3.3 billion of cash flow. so there is a significant effect. >> will you be cash flow positive? >> oh, yes, absolutely. >> just making sure. you still have to decide what to do as the cash levels come down. talk to us about how you decide whether it's going to be cuts in capital expenditures, perhaps some layoffs or just less of a buyback or dividend program. >> let me first of all, say the dividend we have is a very very

important consideration. it's an iconic item i said before, so preserving a dividend is going to be a top priority even in cases like this and we've been through very weak periods where also we have been able to defend a dividend and that's very much the approach here as well. cost efficiencies is always a priority. operating costs. but i think with low oil prices we have the opportunity also to look at capital costs with slower activities in the sector. going forward, yes, there will be pressure on our investment program, but i think the trick will be to balance on the one hand being prudent, preserving as much cash as we can, but at the same time also preserving the investment program because after all, we have worked on this investment program for years. we need to have it in order to have midterm growth to protect long-term dividend growth so it's going to be a balancing act, not overreacting to low oil prices but being prudent at the same time. >> what is you're view as to where oil prices are going.

we've had the saudi prince saying it's never going back to $100. where do you see things falling out? >> in the short term it will be very difficult to say. so many factors that can impact. we will see volatility for some time to come. in the long run though supply and demand will reassert itself. we will be seeing oil prices significantly higher in order to make sure supply and demand can meet each other. >> there are some analysts who look at what happened with commodity prooss and say it's like real estate we have been through a cycle, we're at the trough of it and it's going to be like this for some time. do you stress test so even if the forecast you mentioned doesn't pan out, you're ready for perhaps a new world, a new normal of $30 oil or something? >> of course we stress test every individual investment. we stress test against a range of oil prices. if it's a short-term investment

you stress test them even more against today's oil prices. we are an industry with an investment wave length of 10 15 years so you have to take a long-term view. in the long term we will see a continued demand growth in oil a continued drop off in supply which is normal. we need to retract a significant amount of investment. so in the long run the fundamentals will takeover ben again. >> will you be more opportunistic to akir beaten down companies that might be cheap or will you be more opportunistic in some of the assets that become available. >> it's going to be a combination of things. we always look at opportunities through the cycle and there will be more opportunities coming up in an environment we are seeing 250d today. i think it will take some time before the whole market settles and understands what's happening and opportunities are presenting themselves already. this is part of the normal cycle that we have in our industry. >> so when you guys -- is it almost like warren buffett when

he sees that share prices have totally drop do you start to get out your shopping list or do you also have to pull back? >> we always have a shopping list for christmas list whatever you want to call it. >> last question if i'm an investor looking at this space and kind of sniffing around for opportunities what sets chevron aside from the other oil majors or smaller pure play opportunities? >> let me not comment too much on other oil companies. let me say that in my company, i think we have, as i said come out of 2014 with a position of considerable strength. very very strong balance sheet, a lot of restructuring behind us in the middle of a restructuring program we had already set up for 2015. i think we're well placed for what's going to come. >> bottom line, you think oil production in this country is going to keep increasing? >> it will increase during the 2015 period but it will increase probably at a lower rate as the

year progresses. let's see what the year brings. >> yes. let's see if your second year is just as event driven as the first. ben, thank you for being here. ben president obama's new budget book making the rounds on capitol hill today. it might not be beach reading but it's firing up the hot list and we'll get to that story next. still ahead, it was a super bowl ad promoting child safety but it's become the most controversial tv spot from last night's game. we'll have the ad and the debate coming up.

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welcome back. president obama unveiling his $4 trillion budget today. for that and the other stories lighting up cnbc.com let's send it over to allen wastler for "the hoss list"hot list." we just put up your interview with rand paul and it's just leostling my numbers a bit. still through the day the obama budget was the biggest read. a lot of people participating in that one. second was diana olick's piece based on a bank rate survey of 1,000 homeowners and a third of them don't know what their mortgage rate is which is kind of disturbing. the theory there is more people focus on their monthly payment and they sort of forget what the mortgage rate is.

folks, that's what determines the monthly payment. it's kind of a crucial number. >> you hope their bank at some point would call them and tell them and say, look you can refinance. it generates income for them as well. >> exactly. anyway, it's the state of things. finally katy little and her staff has been following the mcdonald's beat. got a memo from one of the franchisees telling the counter people saying do you want fries with that but don't say do you want salad with that. apparently they don't want to push the salad. >> can i ask one question? on the obama budget with the tacks on the foreign earnings what's the split? is it 50/50, 60/40? >> actually our audience tends to skew a little bit more on the republican side, so a lot of the commenters are pointing up same old tired arguments, same sort of, you know battle line on immigration, obamacare, how much savings do you really think you'll get from these type of

things but we have some readers coming in defending the white house and the obama budget. we actually -- i'd put it 60/40 for you, larry. >> thanks allen. >> i have encountered the defenders. >> thank you. let's flip it over to dominic chu chu. >> what we're watching right now is stratus, one of the big 3-d printing stocks. it's lost almost a third of its value in the afterhours trade. down 27% on 560,000 shares of volume. this after the 3-d printer issued both a 2014 and 2015 earnings warning saying that operating expenses are going to increase, they're going to go higher. the stock is down by you can see there 27%. 3-d systems, another big 3-d name is falling in sympathy down 10% in trading so far. so two big names in 3-d printing stocks we'll be watching throughout the course of the afterhours. back over to you. >> wow. some big moves. dom, thank you. the earnings parade continues in full force. disney is a big name set to

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a big day of earnings on tap tomorrow and that includes disney. dominic running through what we have to watch for. >> some fun and volatile ones here as well. disney just one of them. gilead, a hot sector. also, ups on the transportation side. bp on the oil and gas. and chipotle. i'll be covering those tomorrow afternoon. wednesday as well. go look at gm glaxosmithkline, merck, under armour always one you want to wasm andtch. then dunkin' donuts, even go pro. we'll start off with madison square garden company, and flare system -- flir systems. after the bell, it's going to be huge. disney and chipotle a couple of the headliners tomorrow after the bell. >> we'll get our rest. thank you, dom. coming up, was this ad too sobering for last night's super bowl? >> i'll never learn to fly.

or travel the world with my best friend. and i won't ever get married. i couldn't grow up because i died from an accident. >> a lot of people upset about that. my next guest applauds this ad says it's about time companies started tough conversations while they've got people's attention. it was the biggest audience of the year. we're back in a moment.

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welcome back. another earnings alert with dominic. >> this time we're watching rent-a-center shares. down about 6% in the after-hours trade on about 36,000 shares worth of volume. this is the company that does the rent to own market for a lot of appliances furniture. its earnings and sales both missed analysts' expectations on a consensus basis. it also offered an earnings guidance that was a little less than people expected as well. the company's ceo robert davis saying that in short, we did not achieve the desired balance between sales growth and margin improvement that we ideally are seeking through our strategies. so again, that's weighing on the shares down by 16% right now in the after-hours trade. back over to you. >> dominic, thank you.

now, did you see this controversial commercial during last night's super bowl? >> wait! i'll never learn to ride a bike. >> get cooties. i'll never learn to fly. or travel the world with my best friend. and i won't ever get married. i couldn't grow up because i died from an accident. >> a lot of backlash. people thought that commercial was a bit too heavy for the family event. nationwide did issue a statement last night defending the ad saying, "nationwide ran an ad during the super bowl that started a fierce conversation. the purpose of this message was to start a conversation and not sell insurance. we want to build awareness of an issue that is near and dear to all of us, the safety and well-being of our children. while some did not care for the ad we hope it serves to begin a

dialogue." joining us is the ceo of thinktopia. what was your response? did you see this last night while you were watching the super bowl? what was your reaction? >> sure. i think that the super bowl in general is full of puppies and polar bears, and i think that nationwide has started a dialogue, which is why we're here right now, about this issue. i think one of the things we need to remember is that toddlers have training wheels but parents have training wheels, too. >> can you explain to me what is the dialogue they're starting? does this country not think kids should be safe? because as nationwide said this is nothing about insurance. i mean both parties could be ensured. but god forbid tragic accidents happen. what was the content here? what are you getting at? >> well i think that the content was pretty clear. it was all about safety and safety inside the home. >> just to confirm, sir, if i can interrupt.

they took out a million-dollar ad on the super bowl to discuss safety and not to sell insurance? >> i think so yeah. it was only a million dollars. >> however much it costs. >> i think the interesting thing is that was there any attempt to -- allstate the biggest competitor of nationwide has mayhem. so all their commercials are funny, the guy's falling out of trucks falling out of airplanes, doing all kinds of crazy stuff. obviously no bearing on his health or safety whatsoever. and then -- so that's the pitch in the room. they say listen we're going to pitch -- this is going to be different than allstate. it's going to create a lot -- >> so two questions. >> funny works on the super bowl, obviously. but i think that the -- nationwide should really be commended for trying to take the conversation to a higher level. i mean i think the fact that we're talking about it now has a lot going for it. >> i don't think it took it to a

higher level. >> the same agents that created the dove campaign which has created a lot of good for women and natural beauty. >> is there anybody that doesn't want kids to be safe? i don't know what the higher level is. >> the parents' intention towards being extra careful around the bathtub. >> this is not even about insurance, okay? it's just not -- this is just gratuitous -- >> it's not about insurance. it's about persuasion. >> any parent who lost tragically a young kid would look at this and just go crazy. and there's no reason to hurt them like that. there is no reason to hurt them. >> i think most of the commercials on balance were very touchy feeley and dark. i think chelsea handler and sarah silverman were my favorite. >> might be a buzz kill but hopefully it will save lives. >> patrick i'm with you on that. thank you for being here.

thanks so much. my thanks to the panel as well. "fast money" coming up in just a few moments with melissa lee and the gang. what's on top? >> solar stocks surged today on the premise of a proposal that perhaps obama would extend the investment tax credits. we're going to go with a top analyst, see what he thinks about the proposal and what it could mean for the solar stocks. >> and you're dressed appropriately. >> "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tim, steve, karen, and guy are your traders. oil closing at a one-month high today. energy names helping the broader market rally. is it time to buy oil stocks? breaking in just the last hour three different companies, stratus is warning about 2015 earnings. that news bringing down the rest of the sector. are the 3-d stocks dead money now? twitter struggling today ahead of thursday's big quarterly report. find out the new feature one analyst says could win over investors. we start off with that energy move. oil is up now more than 11% in the last three