that's where the -- >> that's the secret sauce. >> glad it's a secret. otherwise it wouldn't be a secret. >> right. >> not going to come on any of beyonce's stuff. >> probably not. >> better not. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins now. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at new york stock exchange. we'll hear from david faber in a moment on breaking news. a lot to work with. euro's at a two-week high, u.p.s. warning again, oil above 50 wiping out its losses for 20157 wti at 51.17. continue year back to 1.73 or 4. road map with oil trading higher. bp better than expected results. we regoare going to hear from ceo.

cfo will join us first on cnbc. staples and office depot higher in the premarket, reports two in advanced merger talks. first up oil prices rising sharply on expectation of decline and u.s. drilling activity. bp posted better than expected quarterly results. bp ceo bob dudley spoke this morning. >> i think it's going to take time. could be a long time. there is excess supply. u.s. production's still growing. we see about the rig counts what it's growing. and chinese demand of course great. growth in china is not as high as it was. so we have stock levels filling up all over the world, tanks filling up. won't be long before people putting them in ships and that take is along time to work its way off. >> is there a lot of oil news today. that's just one data point. >> i love bob. he's late here. there's already been a dramatic increase in the number of financial players taking down tankers. if you look at nordic and american tanker they will tell you that is happening now.

what's interesting -- and bob dudley, i know bp is hated by many people some people never go to bp again, but this guy's a very good executive. had to deal with different challenges. bp exxon, chevron, whether by the buyback, what he said don't believe we're at the bottom. analysts are desperate to call a bottom. saw one at stifel talking. ann report anadarko reporting a big shortfall. it's all about letters. whether a v-bounce and by year-end back 80, 90 or a "u" and at 6 on if you think it's "u" you don't want to buy, you want to sell them into this. >> what do you think? >> i'm leaning towards "u" i believe what dudley said, first quarter will have a gigantic amount of oil. a lot people say that so what? you got to move now. and if you feel like you've got to move now, you're going to be

saying, i've got stocks that stifel said down 40%, start with the -- i'm not against that. i'm not against that anymore. the downgrades have been -- there's downgrades every day. >> when there's this many ground grades i get less fear fls. >> anadarko a big miss. people looking at charts of ge deciding whether that's a tell at this point. >> i think there's a lot of different tells. i think freeport really -- remember freeport bought oil at the top, it's copper it's gold. and downgraded by bank of america today, buy to hole. a lot of buys. stock's up premarket trading. stocks are up and what it tells me is people are itching to get in. bp's quarter was good. >> especially russia big surprise. >> when he was on dudley's like -- he's very wry. what are you doing in russia the most dangerous place on earth. he says i've got to go where the oil goes. i'd never let my kids go there

he said so what? like he's tougher than he looks. >> but your point to investors who want to anybody is be careful? >> yeah. my -- conoco up big yesterday. my charitable trust, please help me, please take it up, please. and now suddenly everyone wants to buy, we dodd goth a downgrade jpmorgan. no the stock didn't go down. when people see downgrades and stocks don't come down they're emboldened, it's 5 1, you think gasoline bottoms at 2 bucks. core labs on last week reservoir scientists of oil. david betting me he's a really smart guy, betting me we're at the bottom. i -- some of these guys -- >> you mentioned gas prices up seven days in a row, not a lot, but two cents after 120 days down. >> smells like a bottom. i'm in the "u" bottom.

we're putting in a bottom. no doubt in my mind. it's the snapback. bund boone's a smart guy. no one think it's going to be continuing to go down. that's different from three weeks ago, where the consensus, could be 040, 35 i think that's taken off the table. >> more than half of the u.s. gas stations at two bucks or below. >> japan better numbers because of oil. i believe our economy's going to benefit. visa threw us off last week saying it hasn't happened yet. but it will happen. europe i think, is clearly happening. i think there's a better tone in europe. >> you've been saying that for a while. >> said to germany, we'll play ball. but germany's got to play ball. germany plays ball we'll get green chutes in europe. optimistic. >> sounds like they'll push back hard talks for a couple of months. >> ukraine not good. issues with china baltic

freight not up. you see copper up for a couple days china comes back online. everyone will regret they sold in january. >> u.p.s., better reporting fourth quart earnings with lowered estimate. issued a warning last month, citing higher holiday costs. number-year guidance below forecasts again. talk with the cfo kurt kuehn. built the operating model for volume that exceeded expectations and might have happened a couple days but it wasn't every day. >> they have a logistics problem and they're the expert which is problematic. i -- i mean really. in terms of the timing and supply chain. now, it's a great american company charitable trust owns it want to hang myself every time i see it in the charitable trust. sometimes i want to slash my wrist. i know don't want to make jokes about suicide, suicide's very real. a theoretical construct, how to guide down and cut again? we've seen that from sandisk and

that is the kiss of death. now, the conference call's going on now. the problem with u.s. is like seattle seahawks. you've got to wait a full year before you come back. u.p.s., not only did they throw a pick okay i mean it was a pick, but they intended to it's like they intended, we can't possibly give it to lynch that would be too good. like number 538 on eespn. no belichick was fedex, these guys are pete carroll and now you've got to wait another year. >> for the year 505 to 530. street 505 to 6. >> do a big buyback, boost the dividend, being more tough. i think that they lost credibility the second time or else we have a change at the top. now, remember my change at the top, mcdonald's, got it. okay? my change at the top, u.p.s. not yet. change at the top, twitter. they're digging their -- they're

digging their heels in -- my take is that it maybe they know the quarter's good because a lot of people -- you have 110 million people watching, maybe tweeters. >> yes. >> you see monthly average user. everyone's talking about twitter's going to do. i think only way he gets that affirmation is the quarter shows monetization. otherwise, the long knives could be out for him. >> as they have been for a few. >> bring in my -- i may bring -- >> we'll learn more thursday night on twitter. meantime shares of staples and office depot up in the premarket. both companies reportedly in some advanced merger talks. activists investor starboard value pushing for a combination of two supplyretailers. believe we're overstored. >> yeah. these guys are up against costco, tremendous business at am ma amazon. versus cisco, the other sys.

trying to stop the food service that's anti-competitive. we'll hear from david. to me this one of those things they would have hated it a few years ago but so many plays to get office supply it done matter. >> you mentioned david faber. i think we have him on the phone. >> yes. >> good morning. >> holy cow. >> good morning, guys. good morning. >> where are you? >> say again? >> where are you? >> i'm in a trailer, actually. >> trailer? >> yeah. yeah. i'm doing a little tv work other than our own. >> i hope it's the hoord kindhollywood kind. >> yeah, it is. >> your take on office depot. >> listen i think not unexpected, we know what starboard's view as been. i've had opportunities to speak with them numerous times. you know the fact is while analysts may differ you can get to a number some would say, and this is on the high side as much

as 2 billion in synergies. whether it's realistic i'll let others debate. that's the number here. and jim's right, of course. we discussed this day one, the first letter which is we certainly saw a change in the way the ftc approaches the so-called market when it approved the office depot office max deal. but thanning said it's anybody's guess. no doubt that you can get all of stuff you buy in a staples and office depot in a lot of different places and those say it differs from the antitrust opposition that we saw that stopped dollar general from be being able to pursue family dollar. we'll have to wait and see on the economics and how they deal with social issues to the extent they can get to the finish line here in any talks of who takes over. the current ceo of office depot thought to have done a nice job with the integration of office max. would he be the ceo choice? ron sergeant at staples, does he want to stay on as ceo and take

on the potential integration? a lot of questions. but certainly something that people have -- will have time to focus on. >> david, let me ask you, the stock started going applause the 11 12 we heard this now it's at 19. i mean, is there a place for the guys to say, the whole things gone up too much? one of these guys says it's just not worth it to merge, or are these companies more desperate than we think? >> that's a great question. i don't know the answer at this point, jim, and i'd love to get insight into the economics here in terms of what they're talking about, whether -- what mix of cash and stock, and/or to your point, you know it can be more difficult to negotiate a signature premium if you're office depot, for example, when your stock has already moved up substantially from the time when the first letter was sent by starboard. but that said, jim, i mean you all knee the land escape has changed. certainly if there's an opportunity to capture those

synergies you might want to take a shot at doing it though frankly, there's no guarantee at all that the antitrust is going to go their way. >> but it would be a fabulous merger. they compete against each other in a lot of places of course what the government shouldn't want then can shut down one here, one there staples cut a lot not productive. a terrific domestic company to invest in. >> between radioshack and sears, the store closing shrink to grow, as we call it. >> sometimes shrink to shrink. radioshack delisted, wow. what's come of it? >> david, safe travels. hur huhry back. >> see you same place tomorrow. >> david faber on assignment today. when we come back disney and chipotle will explore what to expect from both companies when they report after the bell tonight. also ahead -- stepping into the cloud, a live and exclusive interview with the ceo of vmware and your look at premarket on tuesday. dow had five straight session of moves of 195 points up or down

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not everyone can be a foster parent but anyone can help a foster child. two of cramer's favorite stocks reporting after the bell tonight. disney, dow component, pecked to

report fiscal first quarter earnings of 1.07. chipotle analysts looking for profit of 3.79. gas at play. >> last conference call disney we don't have reaction to gasoline. it's going to turn out they done this is a seminal decline in gasoline. you've got star wars later this year. let's say you're disappointed you're not going to get back in thigh, before star wars. espn had a monster quarter because of the college bowl series which was fantastic. i think that this football season, they did very well. there's a lot to like disney. it does sell off you want to be there. chipotle, i recommended this at 50. people say how do you know? danny came on "mad money" listen, this is the complain to own, backing it ever since i'm think very point blank if they miss the thing, it would be surprising because year over year they've got easy compares because guacamole very high and

i also think that the price of the natural organic beef has gotten better. but these guys are great. okay. they're great. a great american company. i was having dinner last night, very funny, asking people what about chipotle? chipotle shake shack, shake shack could be early, chipotle expensive. chipotle's never been cheap. and i can't wait to hear what they have to say. so good what they do. >> piece in "the washington post" looking at fast casual what fast casual means. some companies like buffalo wild wings, according to some data providers are fast casual others say they're not. as a group, the category's 600% up. >> i went to the chipotle website. you like to know what are they saying? margarita's so good you're forget you're drinking from a plastic cup. i'm organic, natural, food with integrity. i'm also with a tequila, put me down for that. i'll take that.

liquor could be a big, big win for them. big. >> and circling back to disney as well "frozen" the phenomenon from last year they are going to have a short. i think "frozen" short when "cinderella" rolls out in march. and as far "star wars" iger said episode 8 comes 2017. episode 92019. lays out a road map. an article in the paper saying that they're going to get a delay in china. again if you sell it off that try to get back in. take a look at the chart on this thing. almost impossible to get back in. every time that there's some disappointment, it's been such an amazing buy opportunity. i'm going to say that's probably going to happen again. >> gilead tonight as well. >> gilead, interesting to see what they say about the deals they had to cut up. >> cramer's "mad dash," count down to the opening bell. one more look at premarket on tuesday. a lot of cross currents. the euro two-week high.

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♪ 8:30 until the opening bell on tuesday. let's get cramer's "mad dash." 3-d stocks going to get popped. >> might be a new term let's move to sports, when marshawn doesn't get the ball and toss into the scrum, you're doing a stratasys. disaster. this is one of those situations where there's a write-down, jpmorgan, citi piper, the preferred.

now i backed away from the group because hewlett-packard's coming in. and i had gone to see the hp 3-d. these companies are secondary players once hp comes in. maker bot, everybody thought terrific. but they had the wrong product, wrong time, price competition, 3-d systems going down too. this moment captured the fancy of america because if you go to youtube, you see 3-d, it's very exciting. i went to see hewlett-packard's 3-d, they made a bobblehead, it was better than the actual bobblehead better than i am. cramer said something right. but i do think that you can't even get in here. >> but it does -- does it make you question the legitimacy of the market or just the stock? >> this -- i think that it's very real. but i think that there are new versions coming out all the time and this is a built in on sole less lens. hp a 2016 issue.

that's going to freeze the market. you're not going to want this. when hp comes out, they'll really take it. >> auto sales today. we've gotten crisler with a good beat. phil lebeau has ford as well. >> ford reporting january sales of an increase of 15.3%, that is a little below the edmund's.com estimate of 17.8%. waiting to find out details here. remember, still ramping up production of the new f-series. the kansas city plant still down. numbers might be light. chrysler nissan and chrysler both reported best januarys ever. ever. not just since 2006 or '7 best januarys ever. we'll get the gm numbers in six minutes. back to you. >> thank you. >> i mean autonation 17 million units, mark fields terrific job at ford turning it around, good yield. >> phil mentions chrysler. jeep up 23.

>> yeah. >> new cherokee suv up 44. kelly blue look looking for the bestian in nine years. >> not the stuff of depression. not the stuff of gloom. this is the consumer doing better spending worldwide. oil coming down little bit more flush, some units turning around i think that europe could turn no one believes that. that's what i like. when no one believes when you want to be in. >> what gm and toyota and other guys say later this morning. el woo we'll get the opening bell in 5:30. don't go away.

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is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. and it's only on fidelity.com. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. you're watching cnbc's squawk on street on tuesday. live from the financial capital of the world, opening bell in about 2:30. and a lot happening today. of course the dow's gone through a series of volatile sessions. basically made up for friday yesterday. >> yeah. >> almost to the point on the s&p. >> oil started going up and people felt that maybe the dollar not going to be so strong interest rates you know, went up a little. these are things that typically you would have sold stocks on but in a bizarreworld we want normalcy. normalcy is not to see a commodity plummet.

normalcy is to think that maybe things are better. i think a lot of people felt in last few days international's gotten so bad our earnings will be hurt. anything that changes the tone the narrative more pro-europe more pro-japan if china comes into place, wow. that's what's behind that term. >> the german ten-year yield fell below japan's first time ever. that was a little strange. in greece, head leans. the finance minister says no u-turn on our strategy they'll meet with draghi this week. germany expects these negotiations to go on until april or may. >> i don't know. i was watching the finance minister. what i think a lot of people feel greece is full of knuckleheads. this guy's -- he really does listening saying look out germany, you may have met your match here in a small country with a articulate guy who says austerity failed whatever you told us to do has not happened so let's rethink the game plan.

i think germany's blinking here that's why they're going up. another one that -- what is cramer smoking? i'm telling you, germany's blinking. >> delaying hard part of the talks? >> yes. germany says it hasn't worked. i think they're worried about the right wing everywhere in europe worried there could be a revolt against the many regimes, if greece gets out of control. i think it's something that's being viewed as positive not negative. >> interesting. we'll see. some argue, germany wants to get greece to where germany's leverage is highest and greece is closer to that end point, so to speak. >> you said wear wear the merkel pantsuit. i think that merkel is basically saying you know what? we've had a great run here. i guess we've got to give in a little. i'm saying rally hasn't an explanation. it's not idle. it says euro's going to survive

and europe's going to get better. >> the opening bell and the s&p at the top of the screen. down here at big board, sap and bill mcdermott, he's been on the program a couple of times, provide of enterprise application software marking in investor day today. as the nasdaq cerner speaking of medical, aetna today, 1.22 meets. revenues beats. raising full-year view 10 cents. >> that group's been very very strong. i like united health stephanie link i work with likes -- i mean these stocks have been in a sweet spot not going away. especially with hiring. medical, affordable care act cycling through, there's a lot to like about the group. they've been in the dog house for a while. >> we gotten chrysler ford auto sales. let's get gm's with january

numbers. phil lebeau. >> strong numbers for january for general motors. sales increasing 18.3%, that's a couple ofedmonds.com estimate. first january topping 200,000 vehicles sold in at least six or seven years. best january going back to 2007. two numbers will stand out, guys. truck sales last month, up 42%, suv and crossover sales last month, up 36%. huge numbers from general motors. back to you. >> thank you. >> gasoline means buying the big cars again. that's very important. it doesn't cost you a fortune to fill up. green chutes. i know start being more negative. it's hard. facts are held on the positive side. >> people are believing the prince when he tells us we're never going to 100 every again. >> amazing interview. i keep going back over there. he's a harder guy to disagree

with. he's boots on the ground with the swing producers. >> yeah. meantime mcgraw-hill, s&p, 1.5 billion settlement with justice in 19 states not admitting guilt but of course this settlement, litigation related to issuing supposedly knowingly issuing good ratings for mortgage bonds back in the crisis. >> anything that puts this behind you makes people enboldened. people still are thinking that the banks aren't through this period. as we get further away from the great recession, people will pay more for the stocks because they feel the legal morass is ended. >> troubling the banks. >> still is. keep going back to jamie dimon saying regulators are all over them, one of the reasons -- that stock went down -- it's bouncing but they need rates higher. i just think that that group's so far behind the market. bank of america quarter wasn't good citi quarter wasn't good

jpmorgan wasn't that good. >> as far as leaders today, it's transocean, eog, anadarko halliburton. >> 50 was the level where people feel like it's bottom. watch eog that had the best product profile. anadarko conference call didn't matter whether they had a big miss. people want to own the group. when they want to own the group, there's a lot of fire power on the sideline. i think it's kind of -- it's a little counterintuitive the majors are saying there's no bottom. at the same time look at declines in the stocks. declines have been stunning. and they're not going under, these guys that they're buying. they're not. >> airlines getting a taste of it another day here. >> got to be careful with those because they didn't go up when they reported last quarters and now they got the fuel costs, hedges are off, really -- look very inspectancive. american air at six times earnings. look at big, independent oil

companies not doing badly, and i think, well they've been cut in half, do some buying. >> yeah. >> chevron reported a not great quarter and it's now up seven straight points. what does it tell you? people want to own the stocks. >> you mentioned investors leery as we work our way further into earnings season. levels from december continue to hold and technicians taking heart from that. do you? there >> yes, absolutely. look there's -- january period was a very bad period. i think we lost a lot of people. a bunch of times when january's bad and the rest of the year is good three straights times -- >> yes. >> the december 15th low in the oils, for almost every single company other than service companies, they all -- these stocks very far from december 15th low. december 15th low when oil at 57. so some are saying you know what? let's do some buying. it is -- i think the stock to

watch is this freeport because it's got all of the wrong things. bank of america folded and people say listen maybe that's a bottom when you get capitulation like what you saw for -- with bank of america today and fcx. >> wendy's, 10 cents is a meet. revenue miss sell more restaurants to franchisees, recap the balance sheet, using excess cash for stock buybacks. >> and neil has done a remarkable job. works closely with nelson pelts. we've been recommending wendy's since redesigned my wendy's, put the tv in we have been recommending it since 4, 5. broelic unbelievable operator. you stick with wendy's. do not sell wendy's. good up ins. >> you prefer shake shack at these prices? >> the shack is going to have people never going to sell because they love it, that's fine. i love the taste of chipotle.

most people in chipotle shack will -- you have to own shack for a long time for it to grow into its multiple so to speak. wendy's is cheap. >> shaq at 45. pricing at 21 as i recall. >> dow's up 155. s&p back to 2037. i don't think pisani's good yet. >> all so good. you know look domestic is good. i'm watching general motors. last few quarters that general noters reported blowout numbers in the month, rallies have never held or the stock sold off. this time not going down that's interesting. oil going up a bit. you've got the companies that do well in oil being down going up. this is kind of a sweet spot right here. and very unexpected sweet spot. people are beleaguered. even yesterday morning it's like february's going to be as bad as january and that rally at the end seemed -- it had some gravitas behind it because you needed to see oil out of the

50s -- out of the 40s, in order to think we're not headed back into recession, which was the chatter. we started getting chatter about manufacturing. there's a "wall street journal" article about manufacturing doing badly. what happens if manufacturing makes a comeback because the rest of overseas doing better? >> absolutely. and interestingly, as bad as last january was, the first day of february last year was also bad. >> yeah. we had that pattern in the morning. i know i left here in the morning, i said i'm surprised. we have had all of the bad. now we're going to be away from international companies. we're going to get some domestic companies, retailers are going to be great. costco reacted to special dividend. costco saying look at me we're doing great, and no one cared. that's wrong. that's wrong. this is a better situation than we think. >> yeah utx. >> less than i thought but still good. >> bob pisani on the floor. good morning. >> good morning. three things today moving the

whole market. europe oil, and earnings here. take a look at oorp. up all throughout the morning on some hopes some deal struck in greece. obviously, nebulous now. but greece up 11%. spain, france and germany all strong. germany at an history ex-high. other talk is about commodities bottoming in general but oil in particular. it's bearish news. bp announced $3 billion cut in capital expenditures for 2015. interestingly, stifel trying to call a bottom. upgraded several exploration production spots including anadarko despite dis disappointments. and clear on oil prices. claiming 2016 average prices $65 a barrel. that's a very modest number. here what happens they said. we an tis pit a rebound in price as u.s. supply growth slows, demand improves and the dollar tops and begins to weaken over the next 12 to 18 months. a comprehensive note that they

had this morning, commenting on this. bottoming, by the way, early signs of bottoming copper as well. a few days does not make a rally. down to 250 a pound. we've been up the last couple of days. that's a good sign overall. down 20% in the last six months not as bad as oil, down 50%. but people have noticed this as well. copper stocks also begun attempts at bottom. big guy freeport-mcmoran up 5%. southern copper scco up 3.5% as well. let's talk about car sales. i mean a lot of disappointing economic news recently but car sales isn't one of them. historic high for autonation up 8% this morning. and they just had great numbers, not just a beat but comp sales right across the board. above expectations. look at these numbers, new vehicles up 9% used cars up 7%. biggest new vehicle seller in the country. parts and service, smaller parts up 10%.

new vehicle sales in january, they had a separate report up 20%, numbers were great. just a moment to give kudos to autonation. look at sales figures, every single year they have doubled since 2009. it was about 9 billion, 10 billion in 2009 and every year it's gone up 2014, expecting likely 20 billion sales north of that in 2015. kudos to a great company that keeps improving every year. a nod to general motors? hope you heard phil's report a few moments ago. sales up 18%. that was a terrific one. great numbers as well chrysler nissan reporting their best januarys ever. finally, just a nod here to radioshack, you heard last night, new york stock exchange delisting that company. rsh no longer that's the symbol. the company exists. now trading on pink sheets new syllable, rshc. right now the dow up 158.

>> we'll talk later about what may happen to some leases. >> a lot of things happening making people think, i don't want to miss a bottom. i focus on -- eaten said organic growth, 3% 4%. u.p.s. on the conference call saying demand is not the issue. maybe get more bullish. things that are happening that are not going to be rolled back very quickly. all right. with all of that to the bond pits. check in with rick santelli at the cme. >> good morning, carl. if you're a fixed income trader of high qualify sovereign, things aren't acting the same last 24 hours, even the last week or so than they did in the early part of january or most of last year. creeping up. look at one-day of ten-year yields, maybe part of that's the third day energy's up maybe what's going on with greece. we'll get to other interesting reasons. two-day, technical reason. we firmed up after topping out through yesterday's high yield, low price. if you look at year to date one

thing that isn't good 1.71 low yield close from mid-january, that was slow to be violated where the 30-year did faster reflecting flattened curve. back above. this is a different modus operandi. bund yields, look at a 24-hour chart. notice yield of 33. notice that it's up a bit. now, let's look at a jgb, 24 hour, its yield 36. boy, i don't know if i've ever been able to say ten year jgb yield is higher than a bund yield. look at the chart going back to december 1st you can see at the highest yield since december of last year. flip it around. here's another dynamic altering the landscape. year-to-date euro versus dollar firming up. versus yen, lesser extent. big, long, packed up trades reversing? seems they are, at least in small doses.

back to you. rick, see you in a minute. rick santelli in chicago. oil, of course as jim said is the story of the morning. jackie's at the nymex. >> good morninger. wti seeing a dollar a gain. breaking that crucial level of 50. bren crude 53.87, more than a buck. weekly gains, wti seeing 10% pop in a week. more than 13% for brent. yes, you have short covering here but also commitment of traders' reports showing new buyers coming into the markets here. some of this is technical as well. traders saying when we hit the top in japan we broke through. the upside next level. got refinery strikes continuing as well. yes, small because they only impact 10% of the capacity but bullish. retail gas prices so low, that seeps to have triggered demand in the marketplace here. seeing retail gas prices creep back up, aaa saying average for a gallon of regular 2.07. this is the time we see refining

rates reduced and also switch over and see the demand for this spring driving season. yes, spring start to pick up. prices could be creeping to upside as well. back to you. >> jackie thank you very much. when we come back u.p.s. cfo kurt kuehn on earnings and challenges facing the company as it battles fedex and the package delivery wars. dow's up 168. s&p up 16.5. more "squawk" on the street continues in a moment.

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take a look at dow. of one comp ent in the green, everything not worked all year working today. it's merck one of the best performing dow stocks of the year, in the red. probably shorts doing covering here, jim. >> yeah, i think that's true. seeing things like anadarko, just now on the conference call they don't expect oil prices to be worse. that's a bottom hold. keep in mine a company that makes rigs they're saying a lot

of the customers reduced. that's regarded as positive. hear sharply reduced, people say that's how you get that "v" bottom. i think "u" bottom -- >> more likely. >> yes. no one's talking about no bottom. that's what's taken off the table. we were in a bo to thebottom a couple of days ago. >> more of the shape of the letter, shape of the return. >> very significant. seeing things that are happening right now with oil up at the same time auto sales amazing. retail doing bet, seeing good things overseas. i don't -- you come up 170 middle of the day, someone spreads a rumor about greece this or that a better chance to buy. news flow is as good as the news flow was bad last week. >> true. after the chevrons had done their thing and royal dutch, all of the cap x made. >> people readjusting.

a conference call that said listen i don't know guys big drill, service company, we're dead we're dead. when everyone says they're dead is when things come back to life. some companies are great american companies good balance sheets i'm not talking about ones with bad balance sheets. those are ones that exxon said we'll do acquisitions. that exxon conference call had been pretty good and i'm not a big fan. >> it's interesting to see how these big integrated are built for these environments. >> they really are. i mean you know exxon is one of those companies, it's tortoise. we know that the tortoise wins in the super bowl ads and certainly winning here. exxon, really new york fan of exxon, but a lot of things that they said that basically said, we are ready. and to hear that a company's ready for oil price cut in half impressive. >> we are shifting to macro and jobs in a few days. three days to go until the jobs

report. another chance to nail the number. tweet us predicts for january nonfarm payrolls. winner will receive a prize perfect for winter. cnbc ear muffs, autographed by the "squawk on the street" gang. you've seen these. sign the case. here's the case right here. we'll get you a pen, too. >> you want these. these are -- wow. i can't believe it. it's like -- >> you will have, of course, until one minute until the jobs report released friday to tweet us predicts. consensus 235? >> look everything's stronger in january. i don't know what to say. look, there's a couple maybe weather could. the data's strong. i thought, by the way, when listening to what rick was saying today i mean worldwide, there's a sense of maybe things better. so funny it could happen quickly. i know people should be skeptical. who doesn't like $2 gasoline?

who doesn't like it? >> not to say people are not going to nitpick and worry about the wage component. >> got to see wages go up. the president unveils the big program, you think a partisan brouhaha, next day, we're forgetting about it already. i like that too. washington no impact that's good. >> talk more about the budget later today as well. we'll get "stop trading" with jim. dow's up 183, close to session highs after 20 minutes.

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plus for a limited time, get a free security camera call 1800 xfinity or visit comcast.com/xfinityhome. >> time for cramer and "stop trading." >> people forgot about linkedin. it's been terrific. goldman sachs goes buy the strong buy. using a big price target, 2.83. you don't stick your next out when you know it's going to report and say it's going to be fine unless you have very high confidence. linkedin could reignite a group people have forgotten about, social media, those that have not done that well. i think it's a gutsy call to look at a name that's forgotten but doing well. i like this call. >> interesting. >> very interesting here. >> we talked about twitter earlier in the hour. stunning that both twitter and facebook have settled into narrow ranges that have lasted

for more than a couple of months. twitter's case 37 to 40. >> coned, and southern move more than these. wonder if costello will say, what do you think of dominion, it's going up. maybe zuckerberg says i prefer west coast utilities, much more volatility. it's amazing when you think about. twitter used to be a stock always on the move. and now it's stuck in a rut, as people think it's binary going up big, personnel change or go down big, maybe on bad monthly average users. >> what's on "mad" tonight. >> kinder morgan. one of the biggest. they know more about oil than anyone in the world. also a company called fortnet, people love cybersecurity. at the fulcrum of that. sandy cutler, he delivered. a couple of disappointing quarters. look at this almost up 10%.

buyback, nice maybe bigger buyback coming organic growth. eaton is back. significant because it's been a huge disappointer of the industrials. >> being driven by what? is it -- >> airspace. very, very good. taken out a lot of costs out. but they have a good european exposure. listen tonight, honestly. to see this one back is to say, you know what? industrial america, don't write it off. >> it's been a while. see you tonight, jim. >> thank you. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern. more coming up including the ceo of u.p.s. and vmware on his company's cloud strategy. dow closing in on 200-point gain now. what can your fidelity greenline do for you? just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement.

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good tuesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen and only sara eisen this morning. >> lonely. >> simon hobbs, of course, on vacation. check out the markets this morning. dow's up almost 200 points as we get a bunch of interesting cross currents. oil driving a lot of that, up 3%.

you make buys at anadarko and others binning to talk about an oil price that doesn't go low somewhere starts to stabilize here. in the meantime macro data continues to inch our way. let's get to chicago. rick santelli and a look at factory orders. rick? >> absolutely. december factory orders expected to drop close to 2.5% added an extra percent. down 3.4, first of 2.4 expectation. last month, added awhole percent. being a december number this will of course help get closer to the granular final number of fourth quarter gdp we enter last week 2.6. draw your attention, a few minutes ago we had ism new york released, and then for the month of january and it was 44.5 versus 70.8. that is the lowest level on new york ism since april of 2009. so of course everything is right in the world, equities up

1.70 or so and interest rates up. but it doesn't quite seem to jive with data. make sure you look at spreads and interest rates across the globe. that helps explain it further. back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. we should mention with the dow up 180, best two-day gain since january 7th and 8th. dominic chu, breaking news on lear. >> another hedge fund going activist on the company, it's marcotto according to a letter dated today on cained by kate kelly, lear should split into two publicly traded companies one focused on auto seats the other on auto electrical components. seats makes up 3/4 of total sears at lear and counts the like of gm and ford as biggest

customers. koum koum could be 45% more than current prices and wants an immediate share repurchase of abillion. a 4.6% stake in lear. recall that lear reported earnings and revenue last week that exceeded analysts' expectations for kate kelly's story, go to cnbc.com we've got interesting did pits about what marcato has been doing and a storey with lear. >> stock up 3% right now. the broader market is in rally mode, dow up 180. oil is the story of the day, crude prices shooting up wti and brent rising more than 10% for the week. could this mark the end of that record slide? bring in stifel portfolio manager and wells fargo institute scott ren on the u.s. stock market big over hangs lower oil prices and greece. both appear to be in better

shape. does that mean the worst is over? >> i think there's a long list of things but certainly those two things had a lot of weight. i think part of what's playing into this is you know valuations if you look at a 30-year median or something like that on a p/e basis, still below those levels. i think that we've seen a lot of economic news in the u.s. lately that has been disappointing. you mentioned the chicago ism number. yesterday's ism number. we're almost in a little mode here when what's bad is good for the markets. you get this questionable economic news, we know what's going on overseas and it just makes people think that hey, fed's not doing anything anytime soon and i think that's been a positive boost here on the rally back. >> perhaps the story behind the treasury market now, also rick pointing out the data hasn't been great. just on the oil and stock market link, can you call a bottom on

oil with big cuts bp cutting its capital expepds tursnditures 20% for the year. >> we've been bearish at oil here. up until this point, we would go neutral on oil in our allocation. we believe though the global growth is decelerating and supply will eventually normalize over the course of the next let's say, three to six months. so this level here if it goes down to $45 a barrel wield be buyers at this point. >> looks like inflection point the other way. chad you see it going down further. so you do not see balance right now between the market that was thought to be so oversupplied and then what's happening in the u.s. spending projects being cut? >> you have two problems. global growth deceleration a demand issue as well as supply issue. we do believe that there is an issue with the overall global activity. but, nonetheless, we believe that downside to on oil price is

$45, $40 a barrel. for value investors looking for seams of opportunity we'd look towards companies that perhaps are well capitalized within the oil and gas complex. >> the other factor moving the markets this morning and continues to move markets central banks and currency market. you mentions federal reserve. overnight australia became the latest to surprise cutting interest rates, weakening currencies. all of the central bank easing enough to offset no action from the fed? >> no i think you are going to get fed action. i think the late half of the year potentially third, fourth quarter but move in the matter of a quarter of a point. what is the feedback? we don't believe that is priced into the market weep would be somewhat more cautious for equity investors as value investor, we're not seeing great sooerm sooerm seams of opportunity so we move up the quality spectrum. the federal reserve is in a

tight bind. inflation will come in 1.5% for 2015. nonetheless, still, you're going to have ebullient jobs market. >> thoughts on that ahead of dp and and jobs report and fed talk? >> the string of numbers 200, 250, let's say, that nonfarm payroll jobs added, that's good not great. the labor mark's going to continue to slowly improve. there's not going to be any wage pressure, at least based on our work anytime soon. so, you know i don't think we have a lot to worry about with the job market really taking off and wages accelerating. i think that is a very very low probability, modest gains, that's good. >> we'll see in friday's number. thank you for weighing in here. shares of u.p.s. flat this morning, after the company reported fourth quarter earnings that matched profit expectations, beat revenue

forecasts. world's largest package delivery company, however, did deliver a downbeat outlook for 2015. joining us this morning first on cnbc u.p.s.' chief financial officer, kurt kuehn, also a member of our global cfo council. good to have you back. good morning. >> great. good to be here. >> a couple of nasty downward revisions to guidance. why are they happening in such rapid succession? >> well we did, you know we did face some challenges this peak season. we loaded up very much to be ready to handle the surge in holiday volume and it did come and u.p.s. was extremely successful in handling it. but it did drive a lot of extra operating costs. earnings were below expectations. >> sounds like the inverse of last year. is that sort of how it worked? you wanted to make up for mistakes of christmas of '13. >> yeah, certainly it was, you know, we wanted to make sure we had all of the capacity we needed to handle the growth. we saw a huge growth 1%

year-over-year, butt on cyber monday and on that last couple of days before the holidays. but then the couple of weeks between there was lower than we expected. and so that made us underutilized during that time period. >> we will address this disparity with cost actions. what are we talking about? >> well the holidays are a great, exciting time for us but it does create a challenge to ramp up on our peak day, we're more than 100% growth over our normal volume level. it does take extra operating expense, extra capital. and over time we will have to adjust pricing and make sure that we're compensated for those big investments. >> curious how the low oil price is affecting you. i know it hurts when it comes to those fuel surcharge revenues. do you see it as a net positive in terms of boosting consumer spending? so far it's a drag for you. >> yeah. i mean we do the revenue, you know follows the cost

production, we do think it's a great boom for the consumer weep think long term low oil prices is a positive for the u.s. although it creates disruption. so on net, it's a positive. although it does create disruption for us in the transition. but we're bullish on the u.s. economy. we think it's going to continue to improve. one thing we did see is that our commercial volume our b to b volume up over 3% in addition to the strong growth from b to c. >> what do you see for international? that revenue misses expectations. obviously the strong dollar hurts what happen do you see international in terms of demand? does it hurt these moves when it comes to forecasting. >> bottom line it is challenging. you know we expect this year to have over 50 million of earnings hit though we hedged euro pound, canadian dollar.

all of the other currencies have moved so much. but what it does is it changes trade flows. europe, we are seeing increasing volume in important for us adjust our network. u.s. exports have more of a headwind because of the strong dollar. >> finally, are you losing market share to the u.s. postal service at all? did you see that over the holiday period? analysts worried about that especially the relationship with amazon. >> well certainly market share is not a concern right now. u.p.s. is growing very strong you know we showed shipments up over 6% in the u.s. so we're in great shape that way. the trick for us is just handling all of the surge in demand and doing it properly. some of the downgrades of the past couple of weeks kurt criticized what the analysts believe are the new sort of management priorities. first customer service, second share, and as barclay said somewhere down the line earnings

growth. and their argument leaves investors riding in the backseat. is that unfair? >> no it really isn't. u.p.s. has been a great company for investors for many years. for 92 years we're a private company. the broad management team has holdings in the stock. so we are just investors for the long term. so we think meeting customer needs assures good returns over the long term and focused on building this company to pros ser for many years to come. >> when do moves actually start to pay off in terms of profits for investors? >> yeah 2015 will show some progress. we're looking for 6% to 12% profit improvements. it's not as strong as we'd hope for but we think in the second year to follow and some of the projects and initiatives will take two to three years that you'll see substantial benefit across a lot of fronts. >> kurt interesting quarter. of course we appreciate you coming on and talking about it

as always. good to see you again. >> great. thank you. >> kurt kuehn from u.p.s. attorney general eric holder holding a news conference any moment from now, announcing that settlement with mcgraw-hill financial and ratings with the doj, attorneys general of 19 states district of columbia and pension fund calpers. s&p trying to resolve accusations of knowingly inflating credit ratings to win for business from issuers. calpers brought the lawsuit in 2009. once that begins, maybe we'll get a couple of data points possibly taken live. when we come back bp earnings out. nice surprise windfall from its stake in russia's oil giant. stocks doing well. retail names, a staples office depot merger? more on those stories w. the dow up 157. return in a moment.

stock markets across europe up more than 1% at this hour. headlines out of greece boyy stock markets. michelle caruso-cabrera back at hq with more. last i looked athens up 11%. >> not surprised. minute by minute headlines out of europe but one moving the market the most new greek government, sara backing off on one of the major demands it was making when it came to office just one week ago today. no longer insisting on forgiveness fore50% of the debt that they owe to other european

countries. new finance minister varoufakis, on a tour across europe this week announced late yesterday that greece would no longer press for forgiveness or a write-down, as it's called in the bond world. instead ask other european countries to accept a swap. give new bonds, which instead of having a fixed interest rate will have payments that are linked to greece's growth. i have spoken with the minister on multiple occasions and uses the word gdp warrants. in other words, get a piece of paper that says you get paid when greece's gdp, its economy, hits certain benchmarks. we have built this graphic to show you to whom greece owes money and how much. this isn't all of greece's debt this is $300 billion. biggest amount, first block on the left the biggest amount nearly $200 billion to other governments. that's what they were trying to get cut by half. and have backed off now. ecb the second largest amount 27 billion euros.

greece also wants ecb new bonds linked to growth. greece has not backed off on the demand. giving an invut last week he said no way, no how is the ecb ever going to go for that. so, next waiting to see will greece fold on that demand, too? varoufakis meets with draghi tomorrow. ecb debt is problematic. if we can roll over to the calendar. here we are, the reason is this hurts their cash flow they are supposed to make big principal repayments to the ecb right here, july and august you can see, total of 6.5 billion euros. that's why they're concerns about the ecb debt. >> for now, celebration in the markets, as you said. euro's up. curious what this means for greek people. tsipras campaigns on the idea cut back on austerity, boost spend, boost the economy. the debt negotiations are important here at the technical level but when do those other

promises kick in if at all? >> they've already started to institute some of those promises, which go absolutely against all of the terms of their bailouts some at some point that's the next thing that we watch to see whether or not they back off on those things as well. look, for the greek people it was going to be bad, no matter what. greece lived off of other money for too long and their economy is still to this day not competitive. so far, there's not a lot happening in there that's going to ever make their salaries go up unless they make real changes to overall greek economy. what happens proposed by the new government is not this stuff that would lead to that. >> thanks very much for now for breaking down complicated negotiations michelle caruso-cabrera. bp out with results. the first oil giant to post a quarterly loss but did top analysts' estimates. bob dudley addressed importance of maintaining the dividend earlier when talking to cnbc. >> one of the things dweel in

the financial framework is protect the dividend. that's number one priority. we've got lots of shareholders, pension holders, that this is vitally important. and that is really number one. >> clearly investors reassured to hear that. profits at oil majors are taking a beating. let's bring in stewart glickman of s&p capital. it's interesting to watch reaction to bp shares. they're higher. exxon yesterday higher. other guys have been getting killed on lower earnings. is in just you want to buy the stronger balance sheet company when it comes to oil rebounding? >> i think there is a flight to quality going on for a couple of months with everyone pretty scared about how low oil prices might fall. and when times are in crisis like this you turn to companies with better balance sheets. it's interesting that a lot of the companies, not just bp have

talked about protecting dividend. and i think especially for the larger players, they have the balance sheet that can handle dividend payments and modest dividend growth but also so large that they're not generating a lot of organic production growth. i think they're increasingly becoming providers of financial returns with dividends and buybacks and less so with actual production growth in terms of number of barrels. >> so on a day where everyone's enthusiastic and starting to anybody here not only do you cut your target on anadarko you take bp to sell and cut your target as well. anything you do like? >> sure. so within each individual subindustry and energy, we like -- we have a strong buy or five stars opinion on eog resources. it's a pure play e&p but in our opinion, best of breed in the industry with some of the best cost metrics around. and one of the earliest movers into the u.s. shale, which i

think -- these companies have become so prolific generating production growth, that's why we got into the mess in the first place, but eog does it better than most companies, in my opinion. oil services side we still like schlumberger, most internationally focused least i would argue north american exposed oil services company out there. so, you know there are names that we like. but on a fundamental basis, sure we think it's largely negative to neutral across the industries that we cover. the only exception midstream, a positive fundamental outlook there. >> you don't sound convinced. for all of the people who are assured that we're going back to 55 on west texas you say take a chill pill? >> precisely. you know we're looking at the ben tech energy forecast it's a sister company to s&p capital iq the crude oil forecast for wti5 51 a barrel.

people have a hope in 2009 we had a really strong v-shaped recovery, why can't it be like that now? buying up oil on the basis it's a quick crisis e-viv lent of the 24-hour flu. i don't think it's going to be this time. >> the oppenheimer analyst said yeah this is a painful earnings season. we expected that. even if prices rebound to 60 70 a barrel last year the average price was at 93 a barrel. it's going to be awfully hard to compete with that when it comes to earnings for the year. >> yeah. we got pretty insulated from crude oil price volatility. crude average for wti, crude average mid 90s, 2011 2012, and 2013. you forget how volatile these things can be. you're right, it's going to be difficult comps in 2015 when we

exited 2014 the way we did. average price for 2014 much higher. >> thanks for the sobering view. stewart glickman analyst at s&p capital iq. >> thank you. a new partnership with google cloud. ceo of vmware here to explain when "squawk on the street" continues. ep breath in... and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days.

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today. john force jon fortt joins us here with vmware. >> cloud infrastructure and virtualization company vmware announcing collaboration with do toll create enterprise public cloud. works with hybrid cloud plan and strategy. with the company entering a crowded cloud market what's it going to take for the pair to float to the top? patrick elsinger ceo of vmware. pat, tell me strategically, this is nonexclusive. what is think going to allow you to do against the likes amazon microsoft, going for integrated cloud strategy. does that allow you to work on pricing end, on the marketing end? what edge does it give you? >> thanks john. great to be talking with you again. what this is is google's presence in public cloud and analytics combined with vmware's

leadership position in the enterprise space bringing two together allows us deliver the hybrid cloud capability unparalleled in the industry. and result allows us to deliver on this vision that we have laid out of one cloud, any app, any device combined with many other announcements uniquely positions us deliver on the vision. >> i've been talking to heavy enterprise cloud users and what i keep hearing is amazon has been really good about delivering the types of tools they need to make sure that they're able to cost optimize amazon keeps dropping prices. microsoft right there but later to the game in offering those tools. but that they're so ingrated into amazon's system, having tweaked their processes and software and the data center to work with their infrastructure, it would be hard for them to switch. so, what is the value proposition that you offer, say, to somebody who has already been

on amazon for quite a while and has a high switching cost? how do you get them to switch to you? >> the important point to realize we are in the early innings of the cloud discussion. estimates 4% 5% of workloads are rung today's public cloud. now, enterprise customers are saying, how do i execute the next stuff, the harder stuff, things that require my huge investments, 95% of my enterprise apps and current data centers and how do i combine those with public cloud? that's the space where what we are doing in our one cloud any app allows on premise to work uniquely with the off premise, bring those together in a single cloud offer, one cloud any app. >> makes sense. talk to me broader for a moment. your relationship with emc is well known, some pressure to even further spin off vmware from emc at a time when microsoft and amazon again, are trying to more tightly integrate

their offerings into cloud, at a time when you're got oracle trying to push hard into cloud with a more integrated strategy. is now the time to separate these two companies further or should you come closer together? >> we believe very much that being bigger and more strategic in the federation approach that we've taken with emc is right answer and we're confident that we can work together delivering more value to customers and partnership with emc is increasing and expanding and watch this week is further evidence of technologies that we deliver with emc into the marketplace in a powerful way. >> does emc need to continue to own as much of vmware as it does for that to work or can you work together just as well as more separate companies? >> we believe that the federation model and the business relationship, the investments that emc has in us is the right model. and i've gone on record saying we believe this allows us go

faster together, be bigger and more strategic to customers. so we're quite comfortable this is right answer and the right structure to do the best job for customers today and into the future. >> last question tomorrow is the one-year anniversary at microsoft. has he changed the game. >> a friend and someone who has been well received in the microsoft environment, but we also see them as competitor and one for which many of the new products that we've announced this week announced new flagship product, new hybrid networking storage capabilities, all coming together to deliver on our one cloud any application vision well positioned in the marketplace versus competition and uniquely to deliver great value to our customers. >> all right. sounds like happy anniversary, get your guard up pat gelsinger, ceo of vmware. >> great to see you. >> thank you, jon, for that

briefing on hybrid cloud. got my homework to do. >> coming up checking out the market. 200-point rally on the dow jones industrial average. energy at center of the story, a big rebound for crude oil, auto sales, coming in strong. bullish headlines on europe and greece. back in two to talk about all of it.

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little more than an hour into trade, some stories we're watch, shares of hca, lower despite quarterly earnings meet. hospital operators profit guidance below expectations. different story for aetna. higher after raising its full-year outlook, posting better than expected quarterly revenue. factory orders did fall for a fifth consecutive month, down 3.4%. >> but the bulk of auto sales numbers are out and pretty good. phil lebeau has the roundup, gm in particular. >> when you look at all of the numbers, we'll throw these up here, all are better than expected wifrtd theth the exception of ford. and even though we're going against easy comparisons from january of last year and remember at that time we had horrific weather which kept people out of showrooms, didn't have consumer confidence at a high, look at numbers this year.

strong across the board. what stands out? you guessed it we've been talking about it for several months, truck and suv sales they have popped in last six to seven weeks. gm trucks last month, up 42%. the jeep brand, red hot, up 23%. and we talked about ford coming in a little bit weaker than expected but not a whole lot. f-series doing well. in fact i'm on the ford sales monthly sales call right now. the f-series average transaction price, last month, up 2100 compared to january of last year, a lot of that is because of the new f-series they're selling. high-end version of the new aluminum f-series selling so quickly, they're out of showrooms in eight or nine days on average. that basically means they come off the truck, they do the paperwork, they're already ordered, they're out the door. quickly, want to show you this graphic which shows what auto sales have done on an annual level going back to 2009. the estimate for this year is

2015. later today, we'll get monthly sales pace for january. it's probably about 16.6 million. don't read too much into that. january is the second slowest month of the year in terms of auto sales. people look at it and say, nice to have a decent month but not the end of the world if it's not. and again, we'll get that later on today. finally, take a look at shares of general motors. this company's reporting fourth quarter earnings tomorrow and you can bet it's going to be getting a nice pop on truck and suv sales, transaction prices have been very strong for general motors. that's a key focus when earnings come out tomorrow morning. back to you. >> this is where americans are using gas savings, perhaps buying more gas-guzzling trucks and suvs. speaking of gas, oil, broader markets rallying together now. wti crude up 3%. the dow was up 20 points now -- 200 points. now jackie with more. all of the new reports out of

the big energy companies about the plans this year. >> that's right. traders always tell me by the time reports and estimates like this start to come out, it's sort of past the point where the hedge fund have started to build long positions you can see that reflected in oil prices today. wti over 51 brent crude over 56. latest study out by ihs saying we will see as a result of the cap x cuts and rig count reduxs and lay-offs at big oil companies, we'll see probably a month-to-month reduction in terms of production here in the u.s. in the back half of 2015. some people expecting to see this potentially later than that. it does take a while, when you turn the spigot off, for production to start to clam up and that's why there's a lag factor there. but interesting, traders looking to the technicals here saying that once this momentum starts to bill to the upside people start to pile on you get the short covering and that's why we get jumps higher. this is a production-side story.

nothing has changed in terms of the demand side of this. so if the stock market is rallying because of oil prices there may be something to consider there. back to you. >> thank you for that. jackie deaneangelis. is raiddioshack going the way the do-do. why it may be on its last breath. ♪ your dad just kissed my mom. ♪ turning two worlds into one takes love. helping protect that world takes state farm.

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energy of course up for the past four days. that has not meant good thing for the airline sector. dom chu? >> higher oil prices mean lower airlines, all of them big ones to the downside today. united, american delta, southwest, all hit hard. and if oil has bottomed like some claim the sector could be in for a rougher ride given its outperformance last year. back over to you. >> now over to chicago the cme group. rick santelli with the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sara. and good morning to our guest

this tuesday, andy brenner. thanks for taking time. >> rick always a pleasure. >> boy, huge moves around the globe, a lot of them in fixed income. three-year greek, 250 basis points lower in yield, 5s, 200, 10s, 100. jgb's yield using your words burke they're mine as well underbund yields. see the euro currency getting traction, both against the dollar and the yen. so what's going on andy? let's start out with greece. >> well what happened is the obvious. everyone kept slamming back greece as they were talking about trying to reduce their debt and now talking about trying to do gamemanship. and people are saying maybe the ecb and the eu can come with an agreement. but when you look at greek yields, they're astounding. 17%, 18% for three years 15%,

16 16% for five years. compared to spanish debt well under 1%. i mean i think risk versus reward, you're getting paid to own greece. >> basically you nailed it. you know it's the hotel california, maybe you can check out but never leave with regard to the eurozone and the reason is clear because it will poison the barrel with all of the other economies you pointed out whose yields are lower than they should be. what exactly are we trading? guests on cnbc andy say, there's great opportunity in europe. they're right. but it's not opportunity to get a balance sheeting look at fundamentals. you know here's what greece said tax the wealthier tax evaders, have growth warrants on the paper and perpetual bond coupons. to me, i want to see specifics. what are we really trading here. >> ricky, to make it simple treading on the ecb put, that's what you have, pure and simple. where you have russia which is all by themselves argentina,

all by themselves greece has the ecb and the eu to fall back on. and they're not going to let them leave because they're worse off if they do. >> now if this is all about extend and pretend, which i personally think it is ultimately, think cal pers, the s&p issues going on today with the rating agency. we get all of the investors in trading on the manipulation of central banks and how transparent, where they think the next move in the chess game is going but at some point, when they're invested in the markets, what if the fundamentals aren't there, extend and pretend can only go on so long. you know rick we're seeing crazy things in the worm. today you had bunds under jgbs ten-year avenue we never seen that. danish ten-years 15 basis points. swiss continue years negative levels. this is central bank manipulation. when it does stop it's going to dramatically cause losses and everyone that has played this

game. >> andy thank you very much. all good answers. back to you. >> thank you. rick santelli. when we come back, who should buy radioshack. who might be making the move.

auto sales coming in all morning long. phil lebeau has toyota now. phil? >> the trend continues. toyota doing better than expected last month. sales increasing 15.6%, just a little bit better than the edmonds.com estimate of increase of 14.8%. so if you're keeping track at home basically looking at all of the major automakers reporting january auto sales increasing at least 13% or 14%. again, almost all of them coming in better than expected. >> phil thank you. meantime new york stock exchange suspending trading of radioshack moving to delist the stock. should mention, at well a penny stock at stock. market cap under $30 million. morgan brennan joins us with details from a radio shack in fort lee. hey, morgan. . >> hey carl, that's right, the

nyse has started the process of delisting because the company does not intend to submit a plan to regain compliance with the exchange's listing requirements. the exchange multiple sometimes putting out warning that radio shack needed to get its market capitalization above $50 million on average for 30 consecutive trading days. that hasn't happened. as you mentioned as of the close of yesterday the last day of trading for this stock, market cap $24 million, and it is a penny stock. shares have fallen more than 90% in the past 12 months alone. the distressed retailer has been hemorrhageing money as well. the company post losses in each of the past 11 quarters and just recently, last week getting a regulatory filing that radio shack received a second notice of default on its credit agreement, fueling expectations that the retailer could file bankruptcy any day now. hedge fund standard general which is the largest shareholder for radio shack stock expected to become the stocking horse

bidder in a court supervised auction of radio shack's assets and those include 4300 stores that are managed by 27,000 associates as many as half of those locations could close. we're getting reports that there are other potential buyers starting to circle theses assets, sprint and amazon reportedly looking to absorb some of the locations. back to you. >> all right. morgan. the ones behind you doesn't look are open. is it open? >> it is. it just opened. as you can also see behind me we've got clearance blowout, 20 to 50% off. no confirmation from the store on whether that has to do with a potential closing. the sale signs no the looking good for the company. >> sign of the trouble. thank you, morgan. stay warm out there outside of radio shack. reports this morning after radio shack does file for bankruptcy the struggling retailer may sell some stores to sprint or amazon.com. joining us sun trust robinson's

managing director bob peck who put out a nice report of all the reasons you think amazon should do this. the great disrupter of brick and mortar businesses in retail. why should it be getting in? >> we wrote a piece back in september. we went over a couple reasons why we thought amazon would be interested in the assets taking over the leases to some of these stores. one, is sort of obvious. see them demo their own product also fire phone or kindles or fire tv or show the prime streaming services. but the other and big key part ain't it at the end of the day amazon is a logistics company. having the physical presences could help them with distribution, same day delivery, pushing further and further into local commerce. >> i can't help but think of terry lundgren's comments on cnbc, ceo of macy's saying amds will be getting into brick and mortar. you have to have a two pronged strategy. do you see it keeping the radio shack name or rebranding it amazon and making it a distribution center.

>> i would guess they would rebrand it and make it a distribution center. think of the concept of them having to stock thep top 100 items in the store where you could walk in in the in the morning pick out what you want instead of lugging it home same day ship it to your house, when you get home it's waiting for you. the whole logistics and same day delivery is a big part of this. >> how much -- what's sustainable in terms of physical presence? how many locations? >> we don't know. we speculate in our note at least a couple hundred stores maybe thousand or so. look them to count around urban areas to really sort of augment whether it be their food business they have amazon fresh, their amazon local initiatives they have as well and think about the lift to the ecosystem where they could supply things like snow shovels in the northeast maybe suntan lotion in the south, customize it to the local geography. >> the head of whole foods was interviewed in "businessweek" last week and he said these kinds of things google express, amazon fresh are going to be their waterloo.

was that overstateing it? >> i don't think so. they're doing it prudently and coming in at low cost not buying the company overall. they will take over some of their leases doing it prudently. you've seen them test and see where the returns have been particularly on the fresh product, doing local groceries, market by market see how it goes but it would make a lot of sense as they push towards the same day delivery concept to have it at least in the urban areas. >> what would it mean for investors so impressed by amazon as latest quarter, the profit margins, the profits which they hadn't seen in a while? does this help amazon with the cost issue? >> we still think there's a lot of cost in front of amazon when you think about their growth internationally and the density of their capex they have in the u.s. versus the opportunities internationally, so they said they're going to continue to spend against the large tams. near term stuff in this initiative we think they will be prudent and they always show you proof of when they pull back what the margins can do like we saw last quarter.

they will keep proof of concept. >> finally, bob, while we have you, hope you won't mind a question on twitter. >> sure. >> outspoken as you've been about costolo's tenure your question today is whether or not investors are getting into a, quote, facebook moment. >> yes. >> regarding twitter. what does that mean? >> go back six quarters or so most investors were negatively predisposed to facebook. stock sat at about 20 bucks and most investors thought they would never monetize mobile. too small, no room for adds and right now there's a big bearish isn'tment on twitter. our point has been should you see the momentum change like it happened to facebook the stock could run. you need a catalyst. facebook's case it had a great 2 q in '13 and could monetize mobile. in this case what we pointed to are the business development deals, the automatic maus. if you see that start to hit not only impact on the top line monetization but maus inflecting as well. >> we'll see what happens with earnings. bob peck thanks for joining us. to jon fortt with a look at

what's coming up next on "squawk alley". >> we'll look into why google and uber seem to be getting into each other's faces and maybe a bad way. sap founder hosele plotner to talk s 4 and 3d printing stocks blowing up in a bad way. we'll take a look at why coming up on "squawk alley."

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. three days to go until the big jobs report. that means another opportunity for you to nail the number. tweet us your predictions for january's non-farm payrolls. the handle @squawkstreet use the #nail the number. the lucky winner will receive a useful prize perfect for winter. ear muffs. and they are autographed by the entire squawk on the street gang. the estimate for jobs is 235. you have one minute before the jobs report. we'll send it over to you, carl. >> thank you so much. good morning. it is 8:00 at uber headquarters in san francisco, california, 11:00 a.m. here on wall street. "squawk alley" is live. ♪

♪ and welcome to "squawk alley" for you tuesday morning. joining us this morning special guest guy kau sack question former chief evan ge list. great to see you again. >> thank you. >> jon and kayla at post