moved bond yields, ty, all the way across the yield curves. >> it's so interesting how traders love falling oil prices until they don't love fall oil prices. then they love rising oil prices. >> that's where we are. >> that's why stocks are up 250 some points. sue, good to see you. hurry home. that's it for this edition of "power lunch." >> street signs starts now. and stocks are soaring. the dow up more than 250 points as oil breaks back above $50 a barrel. welcome to a very big "street signs." it is a big day for crude, for gasoline, and even for the dow and, mandy, it does is it look like investors and stocks like higher oil. >> you are absolutely wright right. we'll get more on oil in a second. first, these markers. with the begins yesterday and today, stocks have clawed back over half of their january losses. by the way, we've been talking a lot about those spra-sized moves within the trading day. if the dow is 1% or more, again,

hold at the close. it would be the sixths consecutive 1% move up or down for the index in many days. though we haven't seen that kind of move since october of 2011. let's get down to bob pasani at the new york stock exchange. bob, what kind of correlation is there between this massive move up in crude prices and what we're seeing in terms of stocks? >> it's a major factor, mandy, but it's not the only one. there are a number of sectors and parts of the global economy that are showing some signs of bottoming. >> jurp another trouble spot. on top that much today weave got weakness in the dollar. there's something we haven't seen in a long time. that's also helping all of the commodities markets.

let's take a look at the major sectors. it's unusual to see large parts of the s&p at 500. up more than 1%. today we've got whole sectors of it. energy, materials, discretionary, industrials, financials. all up better than 1%. finally, mandy, i want to know we're at the 50% mark right now for the s&p 500 on earnings season. 2014 for the fourth quarter. we're up 2% on the s&p 500. that's getting better. it was worse a couple of days ago. what i'm worried about still is q diagnosis 1, 2015. those numbers are continuing to drop. mandy. >> thank you very much, bob. there are eight oil-related companies that are up 10%.

>> 505, 50, 20, 80. >> i think that -- i think we are right now seeing what i like to call the great unwind of the last cycle. it was driven by anything not dollar-denominated. i think finally people are really starting to understand that the strength in the world economy and stocks in general is coming from america. everybody is jumping on the same old trends again. at the end of the day you look at where the best fundamentals are in companies, in our country that are more domestic oriented. this is just a bounce back. it's part of a longer bull market. our call all along in 2014 -- 2015, i'm sorry, is that volatility will remain elevated for a while in what excess volatility does is actually breed opportunities. >> is the crude market does bounce back. we've got a great stat in just a second. i'm sorry i'm going to spoil it already, but over the past three

trading days oil is already up 20%. if it koopz on bouncing back like this, i don't know whether it will, do you think the stock market will keep on rising? at what point might people start to say, hang on a second, higher energy costs might start to fight this burgeoning economy. >> we have a huge pullback in terms of oil overall. as brooirn said, we've had a multi-year super cycle of oil going up. from a stock standpoint and investment standpoint we have not -- people are consumed with trying to buy energy stoppings. when we start to hearing i'm never buying another energy stock, that's probably when you want to buy. dprins, the last two big sectors in our marketplace, technology and dpnls, right? technology and financials. both of those sectors went

through massive fundamental structuredal reform the last 15 years. we need to see that from energy too. >> mandy brings up a good point, and we have to extrapolate on that and make ourselves clear. you referenced higher oil, visa vi the economy. >> sure. >> let's be careful to separate the economy from the stock market. >> that's true. >> right? oil stocks -- people have been criticizing me because i said i think it's good or bad or whatever. oil stocks are an incredibly large amount of s&p 500 earnings. it may be bad for the economy or good for the economy, but for the stock market, do we need energy to perform before the overall market can perform? >> here's a stat. first of all, let me recant something that you said. energy -- >> you can't recant something i said. >> yes, i can. >> let me clarify something. >> you are wrong, sullivan. say it. >> sully said that was -- >> wrong. >> anyway, energy contribution earnings actually has been going down for several years. >> 10% to 12%. >> no, lower than that. >> well, we've had guests on the

show that have said, well -- what are they? are they energy analysts? >> macrocentrality gists. >> we have a hart in our report that shows a difference. number two, if you take a look at the it's 19.1%. boom. >> when it outpurchases, more than 19% or less. >> 2%. >> only 2%. >> where do you have energy companies then as a percentage of the s&p 500? >> we've had very smart people on the show that have said 10% to 12%. >> i've heard lower than 10 berz. >> it's 7%. energy is 7% of total u.s. cap x. >> there are a lot of companies like caterpillar, for example, that do have an impact on oil prices whether to go up or down, but they're not actually energy stocks as well, right? had go get it. >> let me ask you a question. >> chemical companies. >> caterpillar might be an input

cost. >> however, caterpillar, deer, jacobs engineering, emerson, those types of stocks benefitted from the scarcity of growth with respect to emerging markets, and they helped drive the emerging market trade. they are not the leaders of the next ten years. the leaders of the next ten years are the railroads, the defense contractors, the more domestic guys. that doesn't mean that iowa and nebraska and flyover country is -- i'm just pushing -- >> yeah. >> i love wisconsin. >> it's not going to be caterpillar or deer products. it means that the majority of their big growth came from emerging markets, okay? yeah, it will impact some of that, have seen some of that. what we believe is that as developing is i think investors around the world have been reluctant to get on the u.s. trade, and they cannot wait to buy europe again. they cannot wait to buy em again. think about this. the last.

>> i love it. thank you very much. >> and, by the way, your end target is 22.5 50. >> okay, brooirn. thank you very much for joining us. well, right now crude is up nearly 9%. as brian just mentioned, there is a growing chorus of people saying oil has hit a bottom. however, your next guest says, no, not so fast. let's bring in ed morris, global head of commodities research with citi. ed, great to have you with us. great, by the way, to have a contrarian call. everybody seems to be jumping on the wow, oil -- now it's up 20% in the last three days. maybe you call it herd mentality. it's not necessarily the case, why do you think? >> well, basically because the world is over supplied with oil, and we haven't seen the worst of it yet. we're moving into a season where we'll see the gap between supply and demand globally widening, and all likelihood overwhelming

likelihood, and if you just look at the inventory numbers, the u.s. inventory numbers have been growing at a pace of about a million barrels a day. there's been a sign of that slowing down at all when inventory buildings. have you to find storage. we're running out of storage space. storage is moving, and within eyesight to tank tops and that happens, oil prices will have to go down to accommodate. finding more expensive story. overwhelmingly prices are likely to go down before they really go up. this has been a series of head fakes in the market. nothing is sustainable on any of these moves upwards. >> maybe it's on the idea that supply will decrease in the future in light of the fact that a lot of count is being taken off, in light of the fact that a lot of energy-related companies like bp just today saying it's going to be cutting its cap x, and maybe there's the idea that down the line gradually supply will start to dry up. as, again, i don't dispute your facts about there abbing an over

supply. is it a bet on the future, ed? >> it is certainly a bet on the future. i think the lag on the supply side is significantly greater than the market is pricing into it. you know, we used to have -- when prices went up to demand, it bounced off of that top very quickly and came down once high prices -- we've had most of our experiments in rationing supply, which is also fairly inelastic to price. most of these have had opec in the middle. opec has been the party that cut out the supply, so the market didn't really have to balance. now we have opec that is declared ichts through saudi arabia unwilling to cut supply. we were higher in production last week than at the beginning of january. if we're hoping for a supply cut, we're going in the wrong

direction. this is why, ed. this is an important point. we went to the bakken and to the midland and calgary. once a rig is producing, it will keep producing. it takes a lot to shut down a rig. it's ease where i to not drill new wells, but to close a rig is hard. >> well, not only is it hard, but the rig that is are being closed are not exactly the most productive ones. if you look at the data on rig count versus production, about 70% of the production is coming from about 30% of the rigs being deployed, and guess what, those rigs are not being shut down. those are the ones that have initial production rates and sustainable production rates that are many times larger than the rig that is are being cut out of the market. it's not like it's a one to one relationship. you cut a rig, and you slow down production growth. the margin in that is really, really, really big. you've got to shut down significantly more rigs than they've shut down to get to the point where production is going

to be stiffled. >> possibly 30s. what about 20s? sfwlu you can't ever call a bottom. the market when it moves to, you know, the next layer of inventory has to shut production. to shut production in, you got to get a 20 on the number. you got to get a two handle. if the market really does run out of inventory, storage space, then there's no reason why we don't move down to the level to shut down u.s. production. it's not the rig count that's going to do it. it will be the noneconomic viability of the production that is significantly lower priced. >> okay. lower before we see higher. ed, thank you very much for joining us. interesting conversation. >> all right. are lower gas prices really why car sales jumped last month? everybody says they are. we have a new view coming up. >> ahead, today's mystery chart. the stock index is trading near a seven-year high.

can you name it? you can tweet us the answers. you've got a guess. we're keeping a close eye on that surge in oil. the close is coming up at the bottom of the hour. currently up by 8.7%, guys. don't go away. s zeerchlgs home prices continue

to creep higher after the run of daily declines. it pats the national arrivaling for a dollar of regular at

$2.07. now that makes eight straight days, brian, of increases at the pump. do keep in mind we're still paying a full $1.20 less than we were this time last year. we're still in the money on a yearly comparison basis. >> there you go. are those lower gas prices having an impact on car sales? everybody says yeah, but let's dig in a little bit more. phil lebeau joining us with the latest sales numbers. the only reason i pushed back on this is because everybody says it. whenever somebody -- when everybody says the same thing, you sometimes have to think the other thing, car sales are have been rising for five years. even as oil prices have been rising for five years. >> well, let me clarify something because i think what you are getting is only part of the headline out there. i have yet to come across anybody in the auto industry or any auto dealer who says low gas prices are fueling overall auto sales. what they are doing, brian, is changing the shift or the mix of the type of vehicles that are being bought by consumers. let's be clear here. gas prices have never driven sales overall. what they do is impact the type

of vehicle that's been bought by the person going into the dealership. let's take a look at the numbers for the month of january. these numbers are coming in better than expected. general motors, ford, nissan, chrysler, they are all generally speaking better than expected with the exception of ford which is slightly below the edmonds.com estimate. when you look at the numbers, focus on the big three. so much of their sales goes to trucks, suvs, crossovers, and they had a spectacular month relatively speaking for a low volume month. jeep, for example, january sales up 23%. best january ever. cherokee sales up 44%. let's shift gears. let's talk about gm. gm truck sales, they jumped 42%, and the estimate on the transaction price, according to true car.com, they say it's going to be $36.173. that's up more than 7% compared to last year. that's why when people look at gm earnings tomorrow, there's going to be a lot of focus on

those transaction prices and profitability here in north america. to get back to our original discussion here, brian, low gas prices do not drive auto sales higher. low gas prices do change the type of vehicle that people will ultimately go into the dealership and buy. >> so the new chevy tau hue starts at, what, 50, 55, 60? you could hit 70 probably easy on the tahoe? >> easily. >> i guess i'm just skeptical, phil, that somebody that's going to drop $60,000 on a new 2015 tahoe, by the way, it's a sweet-looking suv, is gas price sensitive. i mean, are people going to really go into debt for $50,000? $60,000 because gas is $1 a gallon lower. >> it's not that their gas price sensitive. what they are is they are looking when they're at the dealership, their mindset is i don't really have to worry about gas prices as opposed to maybe a year and a half ago when it's up at about $3.50, $3.75, and they are going, yikes, do i want to fill this thing up on a regular basis? that's what changes here. i highly doubt that anybody goes

in to buy a highend suv and say i'm going to drop $65,000 to save a couple of hundred dollars a year. they feel much more comfortable about the process of having to go fill up on a regular basis. >> drive a range rover with a bad exhaust manifold while towing a boat. thank you very much. bob lutz knows from which he speaks about this. he is the former vice chairman at gm. he is developing a line of plug-in pickup trucks. is he here to tell me that i'm wrong. welcome to the program. how much do lower gas prices drive auto sales? >> well, i think what phil says is basically accurate. they increase affordability. if you cut the gasoline price in half, that is probably a couple of hundred dollars a month to the average american family if

they drive several vehicles it could be $300 to $400 a month, depending how much they drive. it's almost like a massive tax cut. the fact that suddenly the household budget looks better at lower gas prices, that's when mom and dad say, you know what, i think we can afford a new car. in terms of lowering the pressure on household finances, i think to some extent it does drive -- it does drive sales. >> what have we noticed, bob, with regard to demand for electric or hybrid vehicles as related to the moves up and down in gasoline prices? it feels to me as if maybe the electric vehicles for a number of automakers hasn't been as successful as maybe they were hoping. have we seen any up tick in that? sorry.

have we seen any downtick in that now that gas prices are so low, and do you expect to see an uptick in electric demand vehicles if gasoline prices start to rise again? >> well, look, first of all, nobody is producing electric vehicles because there's a huge demand for them out there. everybody is more realistic than that. the fact is whether gas prices go up, down, or stay where they are, we have the federal fuel economy mandates that all automakers have to meet, and nobody can meet those mandates without going a certain percentage of all electric vehicles or partially electricfied vehicles. if fuel prices keep going down and there's no demand, those electric vehicles, because they have to go into the market, will be heavily discounted and the losses on them will be subsi subsidyized by $70,000 tahoes, $80,000 yukons and $90,000 escalades. >> says the man who bought up

every fisker electric car on the planet, i might add. bob lutz did. let's talk about credit. you mention the price of vehicles, right? i'm on chevy's website. not picking on chevy. i actually like the tahoe a lot. 0% apr for five years and $1,000 in bonus cash. how much does the sort of easy credit low apr environment maybe impact sales as much as or more than gas prices? >> well, of course, obviously making the afford anlt -- low gas prices improve affordability, and cheap credit offers affordability. if you want to talk about storm clouds on the horizon, where i see a certain danger for the automobile industry is that there's more and more subsidyized leasing where you aren't paying the true lease cost, and credit terms are getting easier and easier. i mean, when you have, i think -- i read this morning,

the average credit term in the u.s. today is something like 67 months, and interest -- average interest is 4.5%. i think you can't go to 72 months and then 84 months and then 96 months. at some point there's an end to this thing. >> is there? >> yeah, i think so. well, it's a rhetorical question, but if you have somebody tied up in a vehicle for seven years, they're going to have a lot of period of their ownership where they have negative equity in the vehicle, and they can't afford to trade it to a new one. it takes people out of the market for a long time. >> chicken may come home to roost. not just yet, though. bob, thank you very much for joining us. >> you are welcome. thanks very much. >> okay. >> he will roost in an amc eagle. >> well, one housing expert is timing the next big housing boom. he is going to tell us where

it's going to be and when it hits. >> first, the perfect example of cavat emptor. we have a tale of two different gold mines next. uld rather curl up with their favorite man. but here's the thing: about half of men over 40 have some degree of erectile dysfunction. well, viagra helps guys with ed get and keep an erection. and remember, you only take it when you need it. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. side effects include headache, flushing, upset stomach and abnormal vision. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. ask your doctor about viagra.

at ally bank no branches equalsit's a fact.. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda.

>> hopefully everything we talk about on this show is interesting to somebody, but i think this is interesting to all of you. one of the best performing stocks is a gold miner. it is newmont mining. one of the worst, in fact, as of yesterday it was the worst stock in the s&p 500 this year, is also a miner. fremont mcmoran. >> well, actually, this is also a case -- if herb greenberg was here, he would say to us this is a case of know what you own. >> they also required an energy

asset. >> if you look at the gold mining etf. it's done well in the last couple of months, but three of the biggest gold miners have done better. their other etf's are down because they have cliff's natural resources in them. you say i want exposure, and i'm going to buy this etf. guess what, next thing you know, why am i down? all the miners are up. there's one or two names in there that are weighing the whole thing down. it's to your point. when you buy an eff, if you are looking for certain types of exposure, dig into all the names. etf's can be great. this is where they can also trap you a little bit because you think you're exposed to the gold miners.

>> we're going to tell you the answer whz "street signs" returns.

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a big gain, a big gain today. its rally continuing. let's get to jackie deangeles at the nymex for a closing price. >> hi, mandy. when the bell rang moments ago i eyeballed wti. at $53.07. we may settle above that mark, although it takes a little bit of time period to get that final closing price. meantime, i do want to point out that we're approaching $60 on brent, and that's what traders are really watching at the same time. they're saying here we could see stabilization around the $60 level, but a lot of people still think that there's a leg lower here. as you mentioned, a very big drastic move since the intraday low of $43.58 that we saw last tuesday. about $10. an 8% move on the day.

back to you. >> hey, jackie, do you remember the question? >> yes. >> is anybody talking about the return of supply-demand balance? i have a hard time figuring out how we're balanced in the next six months, and people say, eh, technical bounce? >> right now this is a technical move to the p side. we have seen these cap x cuts declines as well. indicating that we'll see u.s. production to the down side. on the demand side, we haven't seen any kind of a pick-up there. still that balance is off. >> okay. good answer. thank you very much. well, time for something we do every single day at this time. street talk hitting the calls and stocks you need to know about today. first stock, this is linkd in add this stock to its conviction buy list. >> the stock is up 3.15%. lnkd. goldman raising their target on linkedn from $280 to $350. they see a jump in revenues year-over-year. about 20% higher than it is right now. the second stock manpower. lark lays from overweight to

equal rate. >> they raised the target to $85 from $80. they see just under 25% for man. their fourth quarter net is interesting. their business in europe actually grew. >> okay. third stock, virgin america flying high with an upgrade to a buy. >> not today. v.a. is the ticker. stocks down .3%. buckingham research upgraded virgin america to revive from a neutral. their target $44. 20% up side. they just gained two very important gates at dallas's love field. that is the hub and the home of southwest airlines. >> uh-huh. southwest airlines. >> they're going to go at that time. >> love. >> love. >> l-u-v. it's based at love field. >> the pharmaceutical company cmrx -- >> we used to talk about this a lot in the ebola scare. went off the radar. thankfully. >> thankfully. >> jp morgan chase starting coverage of an overweight and a

$51 target. 30% up side. this was a $42 stock back in may. it's just under $32 right now. >> the end of the radar is ticker -- syrog. >> not getting a boost today. the stock is down, but stieffel nicolas upgrading the oil and gas company. it's part of a huge call they made across a bumpl ef games. fast money hits off this name escaped it. that's why we put it as an wered the radar name. it has a $1.3 billion market cap. melissa lee has the earnings squad right now. >> hey, thanks, guys. welcome to the earnings squad. i'm melissa lee. joining us today cnbc meg terrell and cnbc contributor herb greenberg. let's start off with the score card. 50 3erz of s&p 500 firms reported so far 73% reported above estimates. 11% net estimates. 16% reported below estimates.

in u.s. about $7.75 billion. that's really a bell weather. something about the entire biotech industry because of these pricing concerns we've been hearing about with drugs. that's been the lightning rod for drug pricing concerns. and what analysts are saying is that if the numbers are in line and if guidance is in line, that's good news in terms of the payer environment. if they're a little light, it would mean that the payers have more power than the street is realizing. >> guidance and how they talk about pricing. harboni was approved october 10th. this is a pretty good quarter's worth of data in terms of sales. we also have abby vicara. in the pricing war that could come, on vicara was approved later nrt year, right? >> yeah. of course, we've got these exclusive deals happening making

different pdm's, and a lot of people are listening for the commentary on that. also, looking for the guidance for the year. also, looking for $15 billion for hepatitis c sales for 2015. they do caution that gilead is conservative in its guidance. if they come in line, the stock could still go up. the last point people are looking for is what are they going to do with all of that cash? >> maybe an acquisition talk? >> potentially or dividend. >> all right. let's get to you and talk about cmg. this is the perennial at what price do you pay for a stock, especially now as it gets to 2015 where there is suspected decelerating same-store sales growth. >> that's obviously the thing people look for in a quarter if the deceleration -- if there were deceleration or if the company doesn't come in. look what we're talking about. expectations of eps up 50% from a year ago. 27% on revenue. anything short of that would obviously cause concern, but the thing you have to look at with this company is they're doing the smart thing by rolling forward with the new concepts,

with the new pizza concept, with the asian concept, and i think those will keep people galvanized into the future of this company. certainly right now as it really has the great tail wind that everyone is looking at. >> do i detect optimism, herb greenberg, from you on chipolte? i feel like this is a first. >> all you have to do is at this time sit in one of the restaurants and sit at any dinner time and lunchtime and watch and you'll understand why the concept has worked so well. in this case i'm not saying a buy or sell or anything like that. in my firm we do not cover this company. we've not written on it. i just think this still has wind unless the numbers aren't what the street expects. >> all right. let's get to disney, and that's also after the bell today. of course, this quarter is all about frozen. the peak film sales happened last year.

also listen for anything about ad sales. facebook is grabbing more ad dollars out there. keep in mind, though, disney, this is a staunch meeter, i should say. it is a matter of beating estimates for 15 straight quarters. bob in the 4:00 hour? >> i don't know. >> he will do the earnings. bob will come on cnbc. then mount st. helens wra and her great team are going to dissect the whole thing. >> that's right. >> it's full disney. measles might come up. we're also about to be talking about that here in a few minutes. i also learned that meg terrell is a spectacular singer. many people are blaming the decline of homeownership on the millenials who just simply can't get credit or maybe don't have any interest in owning a home. if that's true, your next guest says it could change. plus, it is your last chance

to guess this mystery chart. it's a company stock market that's hitting a near seven-year high. very commodity-based economy, folks. that's another hint. if you don't know by now, shame ow. >> meg terrell's singing career in the future.

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now time to explain what the target is. we told you it's the main stock market index and has hit a seven-year high. it's stretching its winning streak to nine days. this one is actually close to my heart because it is, where he, next 200. singapore sauls very close to my heart. this one is even closer. the asx 200 there, and, of course, the central bank in a semi-surprise move cut rates down to record low 2.25% and may continue to cut. >> that stock market is based in u.s. dollars, i assume. right? the one we're looking at there. >> no, australian dollars. >> that one. that one would be -- i think, no. >> no. >> well, let's -- oh. no, it's -- it's australian dollars. >> the point is that the dollars

got -- >> let's move on to housing. the happiest decline since 1993. some people blame younger ones out there who seem to rather rent than own or can't buy because they've got so much dog gone student loan debt they don't want to take out any more loans. we have a guy that says it could all be about to change, and the american dream may still be alive and well. tim, give us some optimism for the future around the housing market and demographics. >> thanks, brian. hi, mandy. you know, it's funny just reflecting back on that report that you mentioned about 20-year lows. when i ask people about whether or not that was a good thing or bad thing, they didn't know. they didn't know if the fact that homeownership rates have dropped or not, you know, it's kind of a funny -- it's almost an enigma. there are a couple of good things going on for housing. i have been a bit of a pessimist on the millenials, but you are seeing two things come into focus. one, you are seeing job -- basically the size of the job market as opposed to peak, in

terms of numbe employees, somewhere around 2016, then it drops off the face of the earth. what that does is it creates the opportunity for these millenials who by that time will be in their late 20s, it gives them some earning power. it gives them some opportunity to raise the amount that they make. the second thing that i thought caught my eye is that we keep thinking about these boomers, that they're retiring, they're going to the sun belt. they're not. they're actually going to the cities where the millenials actually live today. the ones that, you know, clawed their way out of their parents' basement. they ended up in the city. it's fascinating. you could find yourself having millenials starting families at the end of this decade just at a time when the boomers are retiring and going to the cities. it's almost a swap. >> they want to be in the cities until they have kids maybe. you know, how often do you hear this? i love living in the city, but then they have a couple of kids, you got a dog, you got the suv. it's like, dang, i have to move to the suburbs now. >> give the credit to the

developers. they've done a great job of taking these cities that have been 9:00 to 5:00 kind of cities and that have been catered to commercial or corporations, but they really turned them into a compelling lifestyle for particularly millenials, and the boomers have caught on to that. that's what we're hoping for. >> you, my friend, have never been to tokyo. we do appreciate it. quickly, before we go to the tease, will you bring up the xal? i want to show you something. we've talked a lot about oil today. the airline stocks are all down. every name domestic in the xal airline index is lower right now. >> perhaps the short-term casualties. skyrocketing. coming up, we are going to tackle one of the hottest debates in america right now. measles. >> yeah, measles.

we'll be looking at the economic angle and also the emotional one. should the government be telling people what to do with their kids? that's a good debate. coming up. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

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there are now more than 100

reported cases of measles in the united states. we've seen more cases in the highly contagious disease in the first month of 2015 than the number typically diagnosed in an entire year. now, as the number of cases continues to grow, what might be the economic impact? we're by managing director of capital street, a health care research consulting firm. great to have you with us today. i know it's early days but nonetheless people start to speculate, particularly business tv stations like cnbc start to speculate, but what is the impact on business and the economy? what are your thoughts? >> well, first of all, thanks for having me on. i would say that right now i'm not concerned that this is a sars type epidemic in the making. it is certainly concerning, but i think as far as the impact, even a 5% of the american population being infected by measles, multiply that by, say, about $11,000 as being the cost per case, that's based on some

research when a young boy in southern california contracted measles, came home, infected about 12 people, and the lost productivity of his parents to work, the costs of treatment, the epidemiological research, that amounted to about $11,000 a case. so even a small measles outbreak, that's about 15 million americans, multiply that times $11,000, you're in the hundreds of billions of dollars. >> do you think, therefore, it warrants a federal response? in other words, do you think that washington needs to maybe start talking about this or is that still, again, too early? >> it's not too early. in fact, this morning there was a house energy and commerce committee hearing. it was supposed to be devoted to flu, and questions invariably came up on measles. so i think that you're going to see a congressional hearing in the house, a congressional hearing in the senate, and even

legislation passed perhaps by the end of the year that could improve vaccine manufacturing incentives, that could provide additional public health preparedness funds. i think you could see something like that even before the end of the year. >> do you think that this warrants any change in behavior? i mean, for example, okay, if you had a kid who was not vaccinated and a kid who was too young to be vaccinated, i know you have to be 1 or above, would you change your behavior? would not go to an area of c congregati congregation, any areas where it there might be a lot of children? does it aroundwarrant that kind response or is that going too far. >> i think right now that might be a little extreme, but if there's continued headlines and media frenzy, you could see pem -- just like with ebola, people first started not going on airlines. could you see an impact to the

airlines. you could see impact to retail. like you said, the cinema, malls, et cetera, et cetera, because people are worried and measles is brutally contagious. one thing i would also note is that measles was eradicated in the u.s. as of 2000. you have physicians that are unable to even diagnose it because they've never seen it. >> but the odds of getting it if you've been vaccinated is itself minuscule. as we talk about this outbreak, we should note that 92% of the cases come from disneyland and we don't know the makeup of the people who got the measles. >> that's partially true. they actually took a look at about 42 of those 100, and 80% of them were unvaccinated. so there is a contingent of mainly the people who were unvaccinated who got measles but i think further research really needs to be done because there have been cases in 2014, in 2015

where we don't know if, indeed, people who have been vaccinated and then who got the booster eventually got measles. that's the much more concerning scenario because that means that the virus has mutated. >> got it. thank you so much for joining us. as worries about the measles mount, should the u.s. government mandate vaccinations? doctor, i know you believe this should be mandated. why? >> there are a tu things. i think we should look at the history of measles. it's a deadly disease and essentially since -- between 2000 and 2013, essentially 70% of the cases were stopped. that's saving 15 million people from death according to the world health organization. if you look at that, we haven't really heard that much about measles since that time because the campaign was so effective because the vaccine was so effective. and as a result people have become a little bit more lackadaisical or laid back in

terms of worrying about measles and its impact. now you're seeing the cases rise again. it may not be that measles is such a huge problem today, but it could be if people continue to opt out and we see measles coming back. >> how would you even enforce that? how would you enforce a mandate on vaccinations? >> we have something like that right now for vaccines. i mean, you can look at it when people come to school but the problem is until people get to school age, they are putting other people at risk. so we have to also convince people -- it's not just the mandate but the mandate in addition to convincing people that not only would you be putting your own kids at risk, but you're putting the rest of the public at risk, so other kids, and not just kids but adults whose immune system isn't working as well, people with cancer, diabetes, hiv. the vaccine may not work as well in them. >> it comes down at what point does your personal freedom override the idea of the greater community's good.

what do you think, doctor? >> well, i agree we all need to be vaccinated. i think it's important. on the other hand, i have also important respect for the rights of the individual and i also know we need to balance that with concerns for public health. so fortunately only 2 of the 50 states actually right now have mandatory vaccinations. in the other 48 states some are more liberal than others but there's a degree of respect for the rights of parents. we need to respect the rights of parents and we -- even though i believe that the risks of vaccination is extremely small and the benefits are extremely high, i have no right to impose my risk aversion standards on another parent. now, on the other hand, we could react to that by, for example, i think it's perfectly reasonable to have a policy where if there's a definite documented outbreak of, for example, measles in a community, a public school would be within its rights to say that because you chose not it get your child vaccinated, you cannot bring your child to school until the

outbreak has passed, so you have to make the decision are you willing to have your child miss maybe three or four weeks of school and you think that's worth it based upon the risks you fear for your child. >> unfortunately, we have to leave it there. we're running out of time but we will get you both back on. the conversation continues. >> we're going to take a very short break and talk a littmore about this market rally. stay with us. confidence and 64% knee brace. that's more... shh... i know that's more than 100%. but that's what winners give. now bicycle kick your old 401(k) into an ira. i know, i know. listen, just get td ameritrade's rollover consultants on the horn. they'll guide you through the whole process. it's simple. even she could do it. whatever, janet. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

leave you with a few big movers. i know "closing bell" will hit

the macro markets. back experi experian, it's up 16%. top that, mandy. >> i'll try to top it. stratus 3-d printer company. take that. >> you cut me at the knees. thanks for watching "street signs." >> "the closing bell" and it's market stats starting right now. brian and mandy, thanks. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> how are you? >> great. >> good. i'm bill griffeth. it appears we have a follow through rally. the dow spending the better part of the day with a triple digit gain and right now we're close to the high of the session up 271 points, and i guess you can credit some of that to oil. >> yes. now, you'd love to see a market where stocks are moving higher as oil was moving