a bobby pin. he said to him it looks like a money clip. we have plenty more of the visuals, on realtycheck.cnbc.com. that will do it for "power lunch." >> "street signs" starts now. so much for that. oil falling again as stocks struggling to hold on. welcome to "street signs," everybody, more on oil in the big drop which is wiping out all of yesterday's gains, plus why oil seems to be the one major commodity that nobody seems to be able to predict accurately. plus, perhaps the biggest retail surprise in years. we dug out the five highest yielding stocks in the s&p 500. let's get an update on the markets. the major indices seem to be taking a bit of a breather after that big two-day rally.

the dow, tou however, holding i head above water. disney and visa. but energy stocks still the biggest laggard as crude abruptly cut short its four-day rally. >> three big stories to watch in this market, obviously you have oil which mandy just talked about. we have stocks and bonds. we'll hit on all fronts for you. let's begin with stocks. the dow is the only major of the three indexes that's up. it's struggling to hang on to gains here. i'm going to ask you as a fund manager, are there any stocks that you automatically buy or sell when oil moves like it has? >> no. not necessarily. our strategy is more long term. we don't automatically do anything. i think the one thing with energy right now, everybody's trying to predict the bottom. i don't think any of us know where that is or how long it willç take to get there. the energy market is interesting. it's had a little bit of a

bounce. there's definitely opportunities because of the sell-off we've had in the last few months. there's also significant risk, especially with some of the domestic producers. there's great opportunity but i think you have to be very careful. we're looking around in that area. we're doing it carefully. >> to what degree do you think we can decouple following what oil moves are doing? >> there's been a broad correlation lately that stocks go up when oil goes up and vice versa. >> yes. >> while that makes sense with oil stocks, i don't think you can -- it gets more tenuous when you start saying, well, why does this industry, technology, trade that way? i think it's a broader statement on stocks in general. the volatility we've seen so far this year, the fact that we're in year seven of a bull market, corporate earnings were slowing down. global growth story is questionable. there's a lot of reasons why stocks may be correctioning. stronger dollar, head winds on the trade front. there are other reasons beyond energy. >> is energy the biggest thing?

>> hi, michael, how are you. >> hello, whoever that was. nice to chat with you saws well. . >> i think it's a few things, obviously the fed. we're in a questionable period of when the directional change of monetary policy will happen. whether it's six months from now or not at all this year, i think is an open question. that's a huge one for stocks, generally. with respect to energy, i think there's a lot of benefits to lower energy prices for consumers. that would drive certain parts of the economy, although for producers, for the jobs in that industry, whatever, it's very difficult, capex spending and we're starting to see the effects of that business side of lower oil prices putting a softness to the economy. but on the consumer side it's a benefit. i'm trying to figure out where that risk reward is myself right now. >> i'm sure a lot of people are, michael. pretty much every single major central banker is on an easing

bias except for the federal reserve. to what degree does the fact that, remember, yesterday it was the australian central bank, overnight it was china. to what degree does that keep the pressure on the fed to remain dovish? and does it even matter to the market? the. >> stronger dollar and the fact there's such a die vvergence an the fed and the rest of the world is giving them wiggle room. it means they don't necessarily have to do anything. keep in mind, u.s. growth, you know, the fourth quarter gdp number was okay. we've been in the 2% to 3% growth campaign now. 's no surprise to us. there's nothing special there. while we're growing and the rest of the world or most of the rest of the forl is not that good, there's not that much cushion for us. i get the impression they want to move but don't necessarily have to.

>> thank you very much for joining us. let's move over to enbonds, because the ten-year yielding 1.81% right now. yields have basically been in the gutter. maybe a whole lot more than anyone they're expecting. let's bring in matt keisel. good to see you, mark. when you have the rock bottom yields, you have to say the u.s. +e basis looking attractive. >> hi, mandy. that's exactly right. i just got back from a trip all over europe last week. that was the sentiment. we manage money for clients all over the world. qe is taking the race to zero, even the race to negative in these low on-yields around the world we think are going to cause capital to come into the u.s., specifically into the credit markets where investors can earn 4%, 5%, even 6%. >> and how safe is that 4%, 5% or 6%? >> right now, brian, it's actually a very good investment.

fundamentally the u.s. is outperforming. the private sector is generating job creation. the companies are doing well, earnings are doing well. there's stock performance, enterprise value expansion. this will lead to credit spread tightening. the reality is you don't want to take interest rate risk in developed markets now. you want to favor companies and credit risk so that 4% to 5 3re5% looks good. >> what you're saying is you've identified treasuries that are or bonds, that are three times the return of the benchmark u.s. treasury. is it three times the risk or literally something has been massively mispriced here? >> we would argue that treasuries are mispriced. we think the fed is going to go in june or september. if you look at the u.s. economy, income proxy is up 4.5%. ours worked up 0.5%, wages up 2%, economy is doing well. you can own bank loans which

have lower, almost no interest rate risk and earn 4% to 5% in a senior position in the capital structure. treasuries are mispriced here, whereas credit, in our opinion is the safer bet. >> where should yields be, mark? >> we think rates will head higher in the u.s., probably 25, 50 basis points over the next six months. as the fundamentals come through. interestingly enough, though, we actually think yields can come down somewhere in mexico and brazil. emerging markets with commodity deflation will think eventually will ease. the rate risk is in emerging market, take credit risk here in the united states. >> do you think greece will default again, mark? >> we don't think greece will default. it's in the best interest of greece and the best interest of

europe for greece to stay within the eurozone. we ultimately think something will be worked out there. >> real quick. one of your highest conviction investments, long dollar. >> the long dollar is one of our highest conviction investments. it's simply because the private sector is kicking in in the united states. we think there's economic divergence. u.s. will outperform. we also think the fed will go in june and september. interest rate convergence, economic divergence equals strong dollar, weaker euro and yen. >> good to see you. thanks very much for joining us again. >> thank you. >> with treasuries at least here in america, yielding next to nothing and less elsewhere, stocks are seemingly stuck. we did work for you to find income. there's a big warning that comes with us, folks. it comes with risk. often companies pay high dividend yields because they have to. they need to attract buyers that maybe there are parts of their business that are concerning enough that the only reason to buy the stock might be for the dividend.

here are the five highest yielder stocks in the dividend or s&p 500. dividend yields swing with stock price. right now, these could change next minute. transocean offshore, 17%, their competitor c-drill. windstream, win, 11.7% dividend yield. their competitors have cut dividends as well. the next three are oil or mining related, ensco, noble, 8.7% yield. >> that was a company we were talking about yesterday. let's round all this out with oil. it's 5u7.5% since monday. oil itself is giving up yesterday's gains today. let's bring in cnbc analyst john kilgore. i have whiplash. the inventory data that came out

today, so bearish. it's so bearish for oil. what did you make of it? >> we saw rises in the refined product categories like gasoline and diesel fuel which we haven't seen the past several weeks. they were a bright spot supportive of the complex. this volatility is such when you get to the low levels that we got earlier in the week, you need the story to continue to play out. you need another log for the fire as i like to say. when you don't get it, up we go and up we went. there are shorts in there that lack conviction, came late to the party. got scared out, technical trading kicked in. >> it goes so much further than from day-to-day swings. talk about the crash that we've had over the last four months or so. i don't know anybody who predicted that particular crash. do you know anybody, brian? >> they claim they did. >> they claim they did. we certainly didn't speak to anyone that said we'd have a massive oil price crash, down

below $50 by february. >> some of us were waiting for it to happen, in that 2014 the two major pipeline changes that were made that brought a ton of oil to the gulf, the production surge that finally got us up toward 9 million barrels a day. finally tipped the dominos over. that was part of it. what was a big surprise is the opec stance and the saudi stance. >> the point is, let's follow up on that, is there any other major commodity in the world that will swing 60% in a 12-month period? i can't think of one. why is oil in particular so volatile when demand is -- i don't want to say constant but 87 to 89 billion barrels a day per year, it's not that big of a swing. >> natural gas can swing wildly like that, too. we've had the past several weeks where it's gone up to crash back down. when you're pricing that marginal molecule, that barrel,

it becomes either very, very valuable and dear to you or you can't give it away. you can generate these sorts of swings, particularly if you see no end in sight for the price reaction. what happens to upset that? 10% of the u.s. refineries have been struck by the united steelworkers. that was a big change. with the natural gas -- >> that will add to oil inventories andç theoretically drive prices down more. >> the relationship between the value of the refined product -- >> the oil is going somewhere. let's be clear. this is worth repeating. krong, you have a difference between the rig count, that's new wells and current operating wells. i don't know of any well that's been shut in. which is a term for closing off the well, turning the tap off the water. the new production is slowing down vis-a-vis the rigs but everybody we've talked to on this show, in the balkan,

permian, is continuing to pump the oil because they want the cash flow. >> the numbers bear that out. the numbers reported very little change in the amount of oil being produced, despite a pretty terrific drop in the rate count. people are getting ahead of themselves in terms of what's happening here. what's holding things together are the saudis and their policy on this whole thing. >> it's amazing how the mentality starts piling on and starting calling a bottom. >> i think we're going down to 33, the price we hit around the time of the financial crisis. >> 33. >> 33. >> you're on the record. >> that's fine. >> you're on the record. crude oil right now down to 48.50, down 8.6%. we've lost more than we gained yesterday. >> yes. i remember yesterday with the gain over the past three trading days before that, it was 20% gains. people were saying, wow, we're back in a technical bull market which is crazy.

>> the word for a couple of hours. >> we throw up red hot chili peppers, rod. give it away. >> good to see you, as always. >> okay. >> just a reminder oil trading closes in about 15 minute's time from now. we take you to the nymex. what may have been the biggest retail surprise of the season. and the most popular 11-year-old in the entire world is celebrating a big birthday today. we'll tell you who it is when "street signs" returns. ç female announcer: don't wait for presidents' day

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shares of staples sharply lower today after the office supplier's retailer announced it is buying rival office depot in a $6.3 billion cash and stock deal. let's get reaction now from the former office depot ceo. steve, great to have you with us today. >> good to be here, mandy. >> people are starting to say the regulators might sniff around this. do you think it will be absolutely fine considering the world has changed a lot since 1997 which i understand is a very significant year. >> it was a significant year. yes, i think this deal makes a lot of sense. if you look at the synergies between staples and office depot, there are over $1 billion projected in synergies which would more than double the combined operating income from the two companies. the big question mark, of course, is the ftc. in '97 they tried to put this deal together and it was blocked but it was narrowly blocked.

it was done so considering the competition as office max, office depot and staples at the time. we all know the world has changed and there's a thing called the internet that's created. amazon is one of the largest players in office products. there are hundreds of internet only office products providers. there's also walmart and target and virtually every grocery store, drugstore, every store you can think of you can get office products. the market is highly fragmented. the combination of the two will still be a relatively small share and still be approved. >> and you trust defense attorneys love amazon because it becomes the de facto excuse for anything, any kind of market, if you will. here's my question. if three retailers separately, office max, office depot and staples would not win independently, why should we believe they can win together? >> every specialty retail

segment is consolidating to one. this is no different. the only segment i can think of that can sustain two is home improvement with lowe's and home depot. you have the internet but you have a need for retail. small businesses need a place to pick up convenient officeç supplies and then of course consumers use that a lot for retail as well. there's still a role there but it's not the dominant role it once was. i think the ftc is wise to consider the competition from all the internet players, the mass merchants, the club stores and so on. if you look at the competition more like the consumer and businesses look like the competition it should ab proved. >> steve, thank you so much for joining us. i go to staples all the time. there's one just near me. it seems like office splas is sn

it seems like office splas isups increasing increasingly among the items they sell. there's been an aisle full of retailers. one has shocked inside retailers more than every. our friend, fellow contributor, your friend stacey widlitz. kohl's made their comparisons. i just passed out. was it that shocking? >> it was surprisingly good, yes. not shocking. >> you did not faint? >> did i not faint. we know they put in a lot more branded product which you knew was going to drive sales. we didn't know it was going to drive them quite that strongly. i was predicting 2.7%, they came

in at 3.7. stunned, no. happy, yes. i was saying they'll have five good quarters in a row. this is the first of five. >> five good quarters, then what? >> then we don't know. if they bring in this branded product, along with the loyalty program, they'll have five, six good quarters. after that they have to be a retailer that wins every day against competition. they'll need some new tricks in the bag. they have probably a good year, year and a half here of decent numbers. >> i love your commentary. you put in something that needs a whole lot of explaining. why is macy's result like, kissing your sister? >> it's not very exciting to kiss your sister. their results were not exciting on earnings but they were solid, right? they came in a little above their guidance, which is what macy's tends to do. we were happy to see it, we all

expect sales were not strong but earnings were quite good. it was a good, solid macy's-like delivery. then they made all these other great announcements. that was the good part. >> how long did you work in the department store business. >> 20 years. >> how long have you been in retail in some form or fashion? >> 50 years this year. >> 50 years? >> yes. >> when you began, gasoline was a nickel a gallon and a hershey bars with a penny. >> i was making a nickel and a buck an hour. >> there you go. do lower gas prices really help retail? every retailer that we talked to, not really. >> i still contend lower prices help anybody that's selling anything and retail is somethinç we sell. does that do a big job on quick serve restaurants first? yes. will we see a good 2015 for retail, if these prices stay this level on gas, yes, we will. you'll go back and say there's no correlation.

that's because almost every time gas falls, it's during a recession. it's not during a recovery. yes, the core layirelations are good but this is the first time we've seen that i can remember a strong economy coupled with falling gas prices. >> that was your answer. you got the definitive word. >> that was. >> you are looking for it and you have found it. you may now retire pompano we'd love to talk radio shack. so much to talk about but another day. jack welch said the fed would be insane if they did this one thing. we'll tell you what that one thing is, coming up. it's all about oil, oil, oil, the final trades will be crossing as we speak. we'll take you live to the new york merc when "street signs" returns. ç

you'd be crazy to raise rates with the dollar where it is. it would be insane to raise rates right now. >> that was former ge chairman and ceo jack welch on "squawk box" earlier today. he's not the only one saying

this. >> let's be clear. he's the only one saying it in quite those terms. insane. >> crazy. >> i called around to a bunch of folks this afternoon and this morning, saying is the fed crazy? one person said jack is exaggerating a legitimate point. >> a little hyperbole. >> lou said to me, he's not the only one, lou said the dollar and the appreciation of the dollar is the main reason why he moved out his forecast for the first rate hike from june to september. and here's what happens. what happens, it's all through the trade channel, mandy. what happens is exports become more expensive, imports become less expensive. your trade gap widens. it shaves a few points off gdp. more importantly, you shave a few tenths of a point off inflation and therefore, monetary policy gets more restrictive. >> where's that beanie we

bought? >> the trade. the trade channel. i get it. what is the next big thing on your radar? when we want to dig into the fed, there's so many numbers now, ism, beige book, whatever it is, prince edward island. what is the next big thing? >> i'll get claims tomorrow. that will be the final input into my special model. then we'll look at the friday jobs report for the growth, which is 200,000 and the unemployment rate but also the other stuff. people working part time. how much slack is there in the labor market? how much room does the fed have if it's going to get this wrong. the big story is what happens in march. does the word patient come out of that statement? >> what's the over/under? >> we don't have a market yet in that. many people think it could come out in march, the question is does that mean an immediate rate hike or not. >> like elvis, the patience may

have left the building. >> you have a number? >> no. i'm not eastern going to care. i'm not knocking friday. i know it's the all-important jobs number. >> it doesn't really move the market. the quick point is this, steve, which is we're already at the fed's employment target. so does the job market matter to the fed right now? >> i think it matters. i think it's something that puts pressure on them to raise rates. if you remember the interview we did with john williams in san francisco last week, he's thinking about moving his inflation target. his unemployment target in that 5% inflation -- unemployment is what he predicts for the end of the year. >> he said lock through the inflaction weakness, look through it. >> looking through things. >> yes. >> thanks, mandy. >> a looking glass, perhaps. the price of oil continues to fall, down nearly 9%. let's get right downtown to the

nymex. yesterday you told us it was a technical move high. you were right. >> traders are saying we saw that bull rally on technicals, people wanted to pile on, they made short-term profits and now they're selling again today because the fundamentals are back in play here. we got that build in inventory, more than 6 million barrels. people are reminded even if we are seeing rig caps declining we won't see the impact of that until the latter half of the year, oil prices, $48.51. we have a stronger dollar helping push us lower and weak data out of china. the fundamental story right now is that this commodity should probably go lower. you have people saying you will see volatility and wild swings. last thursday we were at $43.58. we're not that far off at this point. some traders saying we could get back up to 60 before we test the

three handle. when internet stocks and oil are trading with the same volatility, traders are saying bewarery of this and watch it closely. back over to you. >> jackie, appreciate it. thank you very much. i'll very much a big part of this next story. american ceos are seeing what we call the ypo. confidence among business leaders is gearing a five-year high. that makes america the most optimistic region in the world, mandy. >> i'm surprised. >> don't be. the ceo finds investors are bullish on sales, fixed investment and hiring. the ypo is the young president's organization. they're an exclusive partner with us, cnbc, more than 20,000 execs doing, get this, $6 trillion in business worldwide annually.

>> was that a "t"? >> with a "t." when does jelly and cat food together equal a buy rating on a stock? >> ew. >> disgusting. it's a stock call and it's coming up. a big boozy boom. we'll tell you about the new "it" drink. ç

this is something we do every day at this time, "street talk." first hilton, up to outperform. >> it's down 8.9%. parentally hilton is doing a swap of the waldorf new york they like it. they're positive. their target goes up to 30 from 28. by the way, in their same call they downgraded marriott to a neutral. wyndham was downgraded yesterday or the day before because of currency concerns. hilton getting the upgrade today. >> j.m. smucker, deutsche bank raising it to a buy. >> this was our jelly/cat food thing. >> yuck. >> >> so they've been cautious on the stock. sm

smucker known for its jams and jellies. the target is $125, 18% upside. steven is uping wendy's to overweight. overweight being the operative word here. is this bad? low blow. >> no. you will not be fried over that comment. >> their target on wendy's goes from 13 to 9. web bush morgan upgraded the stock and raised the tarring tote 13.ç wendy's corporate agreed to sell about 500 restaurants back to the franchisees. watch out for the red head with pig tails when you're walking down the street in manhattan now. >> she's mean. up next, itt education, wells fargo is out defending this stock. >> this stock has been whacked over the last year. a government agency came -- actually the consumer finance protection bureau, the new one, came out with a decision that wells fargo thinks may have freed up itt over its

corinthians college buyout. the stock is at 8:36. so almost a double seen by wells fargo. keep in mind, the stock has been down over 70% in the past 12 months. it's a big, risky stock. wells trying to defend it today. iconics brand, strawberry short cake. >> you know who -- is? >> yes. >> iconics own the peanuts character, now they own strawberry short cake, the pony brand of athletic wear and mitchka. the target on iconics is 42. stock at 45.60. an odd mix. >> it is, isn't it?

diversification, diversification, diverse fick. . let's get out to the earnings squad. you're manning the helm today. >> i am, mandy brine. welcome to the earnings squad. joining me, cnbc's courtney reagan and tim seymour. let's kick things off with the score card with 55% of the s&p 500 reporting so far, call it hump day, 73% reported above analyst estimates. 11% met estimates. and 16% came in below analyst forecasts. most important is the ratio of negative to positive future guidance. at this moment, it's a very high 8.0. we have seen guidance -- we haven't really seen guidance this negative in a year. eight times more negative preannouncements than positive preannouncements. that's something we'll want to watch. when it comes to today's afternoon earnings, courtney you're watching one that's been in your wheel house for ages, as long as it's been a public

company, under armour, we're looking for the sole, s-o-l-e as opposed to the company's soul, s-o-u-l. >> we are looking for earnings to be up 32 cents on revenues of 829 million, up 24%. big expectations here. if we want to talk about what's going on with the sole, it's footwear. lots of analysts talking about that, whether or not they think shares will go higher. if you talk about growth going forward, it's all about the shoes, specifically a shoe called the speed form gemini. hoping to hear some more about that shoe. the innovation and technology this company has come out with is incredible. >> under armour is one of those companies trying to make a huge splash. they will and will sign those key marquee players abovenike, above reebok, adidas, everybody else trying to --

>> the competition between them and nike is tremendous. the growth here in the states, the comps are very, very tough. the upgrade cycle into these numbers makes the stock very vulnerable going into these numbers. it's had a massive run. 60 times earnings. i'd rather own nike on a risk reward. >> the options market is pricing in a 7% upward move in the stock. let's talk about another one, green mountain coffee roasters, keurig green mountain. i have to get used to that. the talk around the company is more important than the talk about the company. >> that's the story here. if you look at the company, the growth has been fantastic. margins have been falling a little bit. that's been priced into the stock. it's to me, the csd, the carbonated soft drinks, the keurig cold, the partnership with coke, the acquisition of

bevyz. if you look at short interest in the stock, that tells you people don't want to be short this stock into an announcement like that. i don't know that's on today's docket but i think they'll talk about the outlook for their cold beverages. i think it's an exciting story stock. >> there you go, green mountain. options pricing in a 9% move. cummins engine reporting tomorrow. it's a proxy for global industrial activity. they make diesel engines, natural gas engines. the expectation $2.51 a share earnings tomorrow morning on $5.20 billion in sales. just last month, the company said china was growing in terms of market share but that they still maybe could see a slowdown. you've done a lot of emerging market stuff. is it as much of a proxy for global growth? >> absolutely. i've own cummins. i don't own it now. china is 9% of its growth. the nat gas engine is part of the story.

one of the best industrial names. i think we'll see growth out of emerging markets. that's part of the story for these guys. the distribution segment for them also improves with lower fuel prices. >> all right. there you go, guys. courtney has under armour. she'll watch it closely. tim will be watching a lot of names, including keurig green mountain. cnbc has instant and team coverage of all the earnings this afternoon, the moment they'll be released, mandy and brian for now, back over to you guys. >> dealers can't keep them on the lot. what is ford doing to keep up with demand? we'll let you know. >> plus, amazing video, a taiwanese plane crashing into a bridge. and a driver catches it all. we'll have the latest on the search for survivors. ç

a plane crash caught on camera in taiwan. incredible video taken right there. it was taken from the dashboard of a car. the plane crashed into the river below shortly after takeoff. we can see the moment of impact from that dashboard camera. 16 survivors were taken off the plane and rescuers are working hard to find more. this is the second transasia

crash in the last seven months. is it just a fluke or is there something wrong there? let's bring in phil lebeau. i was thinking about this, adding it up over the last 12 months, you have the two malaysia airlines, an air asia crash as well. is there something different about the training, about the procedures, the safety procedures or maybe even the aircraft that's different, maybe not as stringent in asia that is causing this or is it really coincidence? >> some of it is coincidence and some of it is shining a light on the air safety questions that swirl around certain countries in asia. having said that, mandy, a bigger problem is that you're seeing an explosive growth in the number of startup airlines, low-cost carriers in southeast asia. the problem is, there's already a shortage of pilots worldwide. so you're looking at crews that don't have as much experience being put into planes.

that's not just in asia. that's around the world. you have basically a system that's more stressed than ever before. so it's too much of a jump to say it's not safe it fly in asia. i wouldn't say that at all. because some of the safety reports over there are among the best in the world. i would say we're seeing perhaps some signs of stress on the system in terms of all of the new planes and carriers that have come into the system over the last several years. >> yes. it's heartbreaking video to watch there, phil. let's move on. there's no way to transition it. let's talk about general motors and the quarter. it was not own i a great quarter but as i sent out to the team in an e-mail this morning, this is one of the few times recently we've seen a big company doing right by the workers, at least in the short term, spreading the wealth around. >> right. you're talking about the profit sharing. it's going to be $9,000 per uaw worker. that's worked out in advance in the contracts. when you look at the fourth quarter for general motors, they did better than expected. they came in earning $1.19 a

share. the street was expecting 83 cents. a lot of people were saying why is there such a huge difference? part of it is because a number of analysts came out and is he we estimated to have a far higher tax rate when you factor in the recall cost there. that said, the real story getting attention with investors, it's the increase in the dividend that general motors plans. they are planning to raise it by 20% to 36 cents a share. that would bring the dividend yield for general motors once the board approves that move to 4.3%. and that's the reason why. take a look at shares of general motors. this is the best stock -- best day for this stock since december of 2012. it's up almost 5%. it's a heck of a move, up 10% in the last three days, a very strong move for gm over the last three days. >> ford's also been hot, at least the f-150 has, phil. forward scrambling to make -- do they have the ability to make more? >> it's no the that they don't have the ability. they're retooling a plan 2349

kansas city. their other track plant. they have one plant up and running, the dearborn truck plan the. now they'll have the kansas city plant come online probably later this spring. they're quickly building these vehicles. the problem is there's so much demand out there that when dealers get these trucks in their showrooms, they're turning them and selling them within 12 days. brian, you know the auto business. this basically means that if you went to your dealer and said i want a new f-series and worked out all the paperwork, as soon as it comes off the truck, they may put it in the showroom for one, two days. you'll be like, huh-uh, give me the keys, i want to drive away. a ford dealer here in chicago said he's had one. he got rid of it in a couple of days. he got another one yesterday, he washed it, he laughed at me, i suspect it's going to be gone within a day or two. >> quickly, phil, have you driven the raptor. >> i have not. >> the new one is a 2017. i saw it in "car and driver."

you get to drive the cool cars. that's a hot truck, i must say. >> very much so. it's highly anticipated. >> for anyone interested on youtube, there's a fantastic video of an f-150 towing a incredible. like hats off -- >> cannot buy that kind of press. >> it's awesome. >> it is a big day apparently for facebook. i didn't know why. mandy just told me. so we collectively will tell you coming up. >> plus, we are going to get to the bottom of the hard cider boom. sales are up 400%. stay with us. ening right here in this country. it's the sound of america... working with american materials... in american factories. at weathertech, all we do is create the highest quality automotive accessories, including laser measured custom fit floor liners. order yours today at weathertech.com or call 1-800-car-mats weathertech floor liners.

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or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review. oil really the big story today. we're going 2to give you price n a second. the dow is up 60 points. the nasdaq is now up. the s&p 500 is down, get this, 1.8 points. that's 0.1%. >> not a very big move. but we did get a big move in oil. easy come, easy go, right, brian? we had four days of rally. people saying maybe a bottom in crude. not so fast, sherlock. crude down 8% sitting at $48.70 a barrel. >> nobody on this fine show said a bottom in crude.

in fact, we questioned why so many people were calling for a bottom in crude given that sly/demasl supply/demand scenarios didn't change. >> while many of you may have opted to drink beer on super bowl sunday, hard cider is quietly emerging as a really big competitor in the beverage wars. sales of hard cider rose nearly 400% last year from 2012. and get this, today there are 130 cider brands that compares to fewer than 50 only five years ago. will all this growth in the cider stindustry while brewerie contend with a barley shortage. david quartz is founder and cider master of satisfy knonoma based in northern california. you must be riding that boom big time. >> i'm loving it. thank you for having me on. cider is the fastest growing

segment of the beverage business in the united states. >> why? >> i think that the millennials are kind of adopted it as a craft -- the craft centric drinkers have adopted it as one of their beverages along with craft beer. >> how do you get away from the idea that it's kind of a girlie drink. i don't know too many guys that roll up to the bar and say gave me a side of cider, mate. >> now they're being made dry and cider actually is one of the few beverage categories that attracts 50% men and 50% women. >> no, 50% men? seriously? >> yeah, seriously. >> okay. >> what are you taking business from, david? what are people not drinking and then moving to cider from? >> well, i think that, you know, it's a transition from some of the big beer brands moving into the craft beer and craft cider category. >> you know, gluten-free has become a big thing, hasn't it? and beer is not gluten-free

because obviously it's highly dependent on grain. to what degree with the cider boom harness that gluten-free movement? >> it's estimated that 30% of the u.s. population has a gluten problem, and hard cider is attracting those consumers. >> you know, david, i guess trying to figure out the few fur here for your industry, like the growth trends. no industry can grow at 400% forever. where do you see it tapering off? >> oh, come on. >> i would like to stand here and say -- my history in financial journalism, everybody grows at 400% a year. >> we don't expect it to go on forever but it's a big consuming audience and a lot of people are shifting over to cider as a drink, and we expect it to be robust for the next three to four years. eventually maybe leveling off at about $7 billion in retail sales. >> ride it while you can and i

understand you are hiring as well, cider master. thank you very much for joining us today. >> thank you, mandy. >> thank you so much for watching "street signs." >> "the closing bell" is coming up next and i'm going to now enjoy a sip of the anvil. you have the pitchfork and the hatchet. >> sounds ominous. >> going to bury the hatchet. i enjoyed a lot of cider in london actually. fast growing. u.s., worldwide. >> and half of it consumed by men. >> there you go. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. we're talking about a lot more than cider at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. the dow is outperforming the nasdaq and the s&p and you can credit one stock in particular. disney just blowout earnings. you guys reported it last night on the show. it's been up about 8%, a little less than that rig