9% return. >> thanks for being here on this friday. "fast money" is coming up with melissa lee and the gang. twitter had a big day yesterday. four of the traders at the desk were long. only one still has his position. >> oh, drum roll, please. >> we'll walk through that trade tonight. >> straight over to you guys. >> have a great weekend. >> you, too. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. traders tonight, tim seymour, steve brasso, brian kelly, guy adami. stocks falling on news that s&p downgraded greece and concerns whether the fed could be start raising rates soon. we'll tell you how to play it. preparing for tesla's report. they'll take their positions tonight. twitter having a stellar day. three on the desk were long on last night's earning. we start off with the move in the markets today and concerns over whether the federal reserve could raise rates soon. this sort of seemed like it's good news/good news or good

news/bad news at this point? >> i think that's the question the market is trying to answer. we've seen it actually this whole year. we traced 4% up, 4% down. 4% up, 4% down. that's where you are. is good news actually bad news now? you started to see that this morning. i know we saw that selloff on greece. my view is that was the excuse, not the reason. i don't think the market rallied as much as it should have. a stronger dollar which is possibly hurting. i think that held the market back a little bit this morning. >> how about oil? >> how about it? >> 10% up on the week for brent. >> there's so many implications for higher oil. one of them has to be the yield curve. remember, one of the things pulling down rate s globally wa headline inflation, that was from oil prices and other headline commodities. if you think about oil as a place, i think about the oil equities. i think about a&p names. look at the eogs. i sold today. look at the integrated names, they're back to trading at $90 oil which to me is absurd when you look at where these guys

are. the rig cap numbers, all the things that came out about oil continue to be supportive, cap backs is coming out, the rigs are coming out. take a look at the horizontal rate count. that's really where the shale is. not overall -- i think oil is -- i thought as much as i felt last week it was time to move, it's time to get out of the oil trades. >> take a look at the action we saw today in oil. 2% move above the $51 level. two weeks, the best two-week gain for oil in 17 years. >> it's all relative. >> of course. >> he also mentioned rates, and if you told me the job number that came out today, given where rates, ten-year interest rates were, i would is a said we would have had a huge move in the tlt. today it was a pedestrian move, maybe a little better than pedestri pedestrian. i thought yields should have gone a lot higher. i think next week will tell the tale. he mentioned the s&p. we've been vacillating between

basically this 1980 low, 20/60 high. done it three times in the month of january, early february. that's not going to last for much longer. something has to give. i think it gives it the downside. we'll see happens next week. >> you're a buyer, though. >> yeah. and primarily, i mean, the rates did move a lot today, but i agree with tim, where i think oil's topping here. the inflation picture hasn't changed. we had a big popup. so to me, one, you're not going to get the inflation people are thinking of. think about it this way. it's still a great relative value trade. i have a strong u.s. dollar. people are putting capital into the u.s. and the stock market has any type of weakness. they're going to go right into the bond market and particularly the longer end of the bond market. >> where do you -- >> i was listening to my playlist. what's up? >> guy talked about the market level. so if you're a technician and looked at the levels where they are right now, 20/7t9 is what yu have to look at in the cash. if you're a bear, you're looking for the market to stall at that

level. stalled at that level today. probably going to roll down. looking for a reason to sell off. oil, toppy as tim said. that has to come back in. that trade unraveling. a couple more days left in it. >> real quick, also. you have this 35 basis point move week over week. we were 165, 161. we're now 195. the commodity currencies, if you believe oil is selling off and the dollar is going to strengthen, the dxy, the dollar index will push through. you're a seller of the canadian dollar and australian dollar which have come back this week. fxc, fxa. i'm short them after covering them last week. >> if you believe the dollar is going to push higher, material, as well as industrial stocks they won't last and buyer of financials which moved higher on the focus that rates will rise? >> if you think the yield curve -- start getting a yield curve, then, yeah. see, i'm still in the -- this week was a bit of an anomaly.

the last 18 months in terms of the tlt. the commodity space scares me. gold had a horrible day. gdx horrible day. i think that's if play long term. >> a week ago we were talking about factory orders and the economy. maybe the weakness in europe spreading out to weakness in the united states. and now all of a sudden we get the jobs number. what everyone knew about. cap-x spending that everyone knew about. rig counts coming down that everyone knew about. >> people didn't know about the wage pressure. this is the one thing that's been missing. to say that was out there, that's what scared the markets today. >> no, i think it's a combination of everything about oil. when you talk about what scared the market, people have been waiting for wage pressure, so maybe that was the added, maybe that was the cherry on top. i would say 99% of what we moved on in the last couple of days was everything that we already baked into the cake. okay. let's follow that logic through. what moves in the market were based on what we already knew? therefore, false moves. >> all were based on false

moves. >> you talked about financials. let's bring those up. when bank of america moves 5% in a day and traded up to key levels close to 16%, 16.5% -- >> i think the financials were overly shorted. i think if you look at the entire sector, we were talking about this, it's the worst performing sector year to date, a case where these things were oversold. if you have real wage gains, even a little bit of a steepening yield curve, these guys have been compressed and saw the earnings out there were not that bad but probably the best value in the entire market if you're looking at banks on price to book, there's the most value there of any place i see. >> one last thing. you said this was baked in, wage pressure. if we're pulling forward those interest rate hikes, vichb everyone was worried about that killing the rally. if that was the cause of it, the market would have sold off. the market ran basically on oil finding a footing, on people trying to equate the dollar moves and saying we can have a higher dollar and higher oil. both of those cannot happen at

the same time. let's talk about tesla, following oil's lead during the last two months. stock up 7% this week. let's have everybody take positions ahead of earnings last we wednesday after the bell. currency headwinds. lot of analysts came out lowering their estimates first quarter based on the dollar. >> i think we've done a good job with this stock technically. fundamentals i'm not sure necessarily there are any. what does it mean? we said about it 20 being support on the way down. it was. when it broke, tim said it, i said it, 180, 185. if you look where we topped, went down to, basically 185. past support comes resistance. look where it traded up to today. the high was 223. how do you trade it? you know, to any you at the upper end of the bracket. i think you still trade it between the 185, 220 level. look for a potential breakout next week. i don't think you have to have a huge position going into earnings. frankly i think it's a coin flip on wednesday. >> a lot of analysts also say it's negative going to earnings.

they're going to miss deliveries. >> the sentiment might be negative. i'm not sure who's all that negative on it. i guess i'm more in guy's camp here where you don't have to have a large position. you don't have to have any position in it. maybe buy some calls if you think it's going up. i would much rather buy this on a pullback. >> we were talking about fundamentals. i mean, it's ripped over the last couple weeks because of the move in oil. no coincidence than tesla stock's two weeks, oil saw its biggest gain in 17 years. >> right. you is to -- and whether that is a fundamental call or not, you have to listen to that. but then get back to these earnings. guy said i don't know what they're going to do. the street doesn't know what they're going to. i've never seen a company that has had so much all over the map. people between 20 and 35 cents. revenues from 1 .05 to 1.4 billion on the high end. this is a company that no one knows what to do with it. if they miss at all, production, the unit expectations for next year i think are going to be sided somewhat down ward. in the meantime, you play for 180. >> the last leg of this stock

has been higher, right, but based on china. china's numbers, china's growth. it's speculative. if comes down to the dollars and cents of it all and fail there, miss there, this stock could be bel belower. investors are going get the grain. we have the details next. twitter's stock having its second best day ever. is this as good as it gets for twitter? three traders were long going into earnings. we'll tell you what they're doing. that's straight ahead on "fast." do you

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♪ ice, ice baby >> this could only mean one thing, right? the most affluent investors are taking the road less traveled with portfolios. with details on the one trade the ultra rich are dumping, let's bring in cnbc.com's senior editor at large, eric, aka, ice ice baby. >> this can be the whole segment right here. >> it could be. but let's not -- let's not go there. >> it actually was. >> thanks for coming. >> what are they dumping? >> high net worth investors, they are dumping emerging markets.

they're just getting ridded of it. equities, fixed incomes, they're completely getting out. according to data from e-vestments. they're just getting out compared to pension funds who represent the regular investor. they have to look out for a regular kind of mass audience customer base who's getting rid of u.s. equities because it's been up so much and they have to keep their percentages matched up to not overallocating to something like u.s. equities so they're losing out there. >> how much of this is a rear-view mirror look at their portfol portfolios? >> you can go back two years. >> is it two weeks? >> it's up through the fourth quarter so it's pretty -- you can see these broad trends. it's not like they switch back all of a sudden next week. >> right. >> but is the inference here that the institutional guys are allocating away from the u.s., one, they're getting overweight

because it's done so well, but a market that's done very well and be ahead of the curve? no secret emerging markets have been a horrendous investment for the last four years. aren't they selling the bottom? >> this is what i do. >> that's the question. right? >> i think it's a dangerous time to be selling. >> that's the question. it's interesting to see how these two groups of people are behaving differently. they've made a different decision. they're not doing the same thing. >> right. >> is there any track record to the high net worth investor that makes you believe that what they are doing is better than the decision that the pension funds are making? >> well that is not clear because you can always go back and tactically do things differently along the way. they're putting a lot more of their money in right now, global multiasset tactical things. basically hedge funds. is. so you're seeing them at 5% more of an allocation strategy compared to the pension funds. >> on fixed income, where does high net worth stand on fixed income? >> they are staying in the u.s. and they are staying away from the rest of the world. >> so still in your trade

basically. >> yeah. i guess the question is, is more along the lines of the pension funds have a set amount that they have to have in each bucket, right? they don't have the luxury that the high net worth individuals do. >> so that's why it's interesting to see how net worth individual who doesn't have constraints. >> right. >> what can they do when they're not forced to do anything in particular and that's why it's interesting that they're getting out of e.m. >> ice, thank you. aka, eric. >> do we have an outro? >> it's not in my control. >> high net worth investors, should you follow? >> i'd like to be one. >> that's a whole other story. >> the bond market here, i agree with that, you can still find yields here which means, says to me yields still headed lower in the united states. >> how about you? ambassador on emerging markets. >> to me, the way i see it, i expressed the view i think somewhere in your commodities after a whorrendous run, china has been priced to 6% gdp

growth. see fx currencies at all-time lows. it's difficult for me to sell this. fundamentals are trading 450 basis points cheap to develop. i would not be doing that. >> two things guy slammed, eem and utilities. if i had to pick the two, would you rath e i'd still stay with utilities. >> you're making one last -- in russia. german chancellor angela merkel and french president francois hollande are trying to get a cease-fire in ukraine in place. russian stocks a s have been on run. up 12% this week. there could be more gains ahead. tim, what are you watching? do you back this rrx move is. >> the question is what kind of deal are these guys going to come to? if you think there's going to be a peace deal brokered, we had immense agreement that went nowhere. after a move like this, taked about names last week. we tweeted about the rsx. i said, you know what, leave the politician aside and i think you could own this thing. that's what essentially happened to the market over the last

week. it followed oil. i think oil is going to pull back a bit. i think russia is going to trade with oil. i don't think they're going to get anything done. we're waiting for the second food to fall in a moody's downgrade which would take the entire country below junk. that's something you have to watch out for. my expectations for a dual for putin are not. hollande and merkel are going there with a more i think gentle agenda to allow putin to tom con off the olive branch because he's out there. if you get that, the rts, the dollar base index goes up 20%. >> what do you think will happen? >> i don't think they're going to come to a deal. >> what happens? >> i think ultimately we trade probably back down. i think the ruble is what you follow first of all. i think that's going to trade from mid 60s probably to test the 68, 68 1/2 on a pullback in oil. i would be taking profits this week. had a great run. there's no reason to play it through this deal. coming up next, twitter's massive post-earnings pop. the stock soaring 16% after a blowout quarter. is it time to take some money off the table?

the traders lay out their latest moves on this social high flyer. that's next.

twitter surging 16% after beating out the top and bottom lines. earlier today, twitter ceo talked about the new deal on cnbc. take a listen. >> i think there's one big specific difference about the previous relationship we had with google and this new deal we have, and that's because we're now really pursuing this total audience strategy of our logged in user base. >> and a number of our twitters were long twitter going into the report. here's what they said over the past few weeks on the stock.

>> i picked it last year as my stock of the year. i was a year too early. i'm going with twitter and staying long. >> i'm still long twitter. making higher loans. it's an excellent sign in the market that's down 2 50 on the dow. >> a company is starting to hit its stride. the mius are important. i saw an inflection point. >> what did you do? i sold it today. >> all of it. >> the stock went from 39, the low 39 and change where i bought it up to where it closed today. that to me priced in, first of all, it took out the low bar and got to a place where people began to understand the story. it's a great time to watch this stock now. that's what i will do. i will look for a place to get back. >> i sold just under a third of my position in twitter. had to lock in something. the stock is 33% year to date. been on the roll ee eer coaster a while. any other name could be gone as well. i think they're moving away from the importance of maus. it's on center stage but sharing

that stage. >> is it a breakout stock f2015? >> yeah, i'm glad you pointed that out on the shortened show. it definitely has a lot of stuff. it has video, the youtube aspect to it, it's got news. i see a lot of momentum. it's starting to warm up to the street. street is starting to warm up to that. i think the story is getting a little bit more defined. >> what did you do? >> i actually had a call spread on that, expiring in march. blasted right through my upper -- i took the profits on it. i will look to get back in. i agree with steve that i think, you know, wall street is starting to understand the story. the stock is trading better. obviously trading better today. i will get back in on the pullback. >> how are you feeling about twitter? >> how are you feeling? >> i talked about it on monday, i think twitter could be where facebook was a couple years ago. it's starting to play itself out. i think these guys are smart to take profits. 100 million shares. with that said, you might get back and forth. i think the stock will grind higher and surprise people.

>> time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. massive drop for yelp down 22%. >> user growth and spending more money. not a good sign especially when you trade 100 times forward earnings. i think you got to let it flush out for more. >> priceline down 2%. >> yeah, in sympathy with expedia, got to watch this one, though. $1,000, that's line right there, if we break below that, be very careful. >> buffalo wild wings up 7%. >> you have a place where the entire space has been rallying. the question to me, does this want the valuation it has? i'd rather be in the value, mcdonald's, places i'd rather be. >> remember we went for buffalo wild wings? >> tim kept sending drinks back. too salty, too sweet. >> not a great margarita. >> didn't invite me and you're saying it out loud. >> our next semi. up 5%. >> this is the forefront of the

new credit card technology. i would still be -- a lot of room to run. >> a new tindr style app called high there, to connect marijuana users with potential mates. to discern whether a person smokes wax hash with a vaporizer or regular marijuana in a cigarette. users can network and -- >> just kidding. >> i love the oldtime noise back there. i don't know what it is back there. i sense i get the throwback noise. >> i'm getting on this -- >> what? >> i'm going to bust them all. >> it's legal now. >> it's legal. >> you can enjoy yourself. >> a cop. a policeman. >> flat foot. >> that's old school. >> i think grubhub should buy that app. synergies. >> i think it's awful. >> you look like a cop. he looks like a perp, you look like a cop. >> thank you. i think. >> a perp.

time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> last week, traded up to 41. i figured it goes higher, i'm out. taking some props. >> charles schwab, it's a leverage play on rates going higher. >> well, i don't think rates are going higher, i think they're going lower. buy tlt. >> before our final trade, you know, the nbc page program is -- >> one of the best. >> one of the best. second to none. >> fine training ground for professionals. >> we get the pick of the litter and today it's -- out of las vegas. come on the tv set right there. >> i've never seen that girl before in my life. >> tara did an unbelievable job. yes sfw. >> absolutely. we had many in the past, as well as in the future i hope. >> let's hope. >> with that, the bar is very high. >> it's true. exact sciences. biotech names we talk about from time to time. this stock i think continues to grind higher. >> you started off as a page, did you not? >> i did. 1968. >> i think you were an intern.

>> all right. that does it for us here on "fast money." thanks to karen. good luck in the future. we'll see you back here monday at 5:00. also see you on the new "power lunch" at 2:00 an monday. don't go anywhere. "option actions" starts right after this break. why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you, it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well-equipped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details. that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses.

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next, fighting the wave of volatility. is your portfolio safe from

live at the nasdaq. these guys are getting ready to give you their best moves. first, here's what's coming up. >> oh, you didn't get enough coke. >> that's a good thing. america's favorite beverage fell flat on earnings. why are investors suddenly flocking to ford? no, it's not that. but we'll tell you how you can double your money in just a couple months. >> let's hear it for the great -- >> tom lee, he'll explain why mow now is a great time to buy stocks. the action starts right now. where do you want to position yourself right now? so,